e-ISSN: 2582-5208 International Research Journal of Modernization in Engineering Technology and Science Volume:02/Issue:11/November -2020
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PREDICTIONS OF COVID-19 DEATHS IN INDIA, ITALY AND USA POST LOCKDOWN USING LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS Sahana K S*1, Stavelin Abhinandithe K2, Dr.Madhu B3, Preethi R Bhat4, Dr. Balasubramanian S5 *1Research 2Assistant 3Associate 4M.Sc
Scholar, division of Medical Statistics, JSS AHER.
Professor, division of Medical Statistics, JSS AHER Professor, dept. of Community Medicine, JSS AHER
in Medical Statistics, Division of Medical Statistics, JSS AHER 5Dean
& Director Research, JSS AHER.
ABSTRACT The contagion of Covid-19(corona virus illness) generated by newly discovered corona virus, has generated a desolation in human advancement. Aforesaid study was focused on discover the tendency associated to death rate anticipated from Covid-19 by the end of May in India, USA and Italy. Method: confirm registry has been used to acquire Worldwide and Indian coronavirus statistics. Simple linear regression analyses, correlation analysis and residual analysis were used. Analysis was carried out using data analysis tool pack of Excel 2013. Result: Analyzing linear regression the mortality counts was found to be 2594, 28,538 and 63,607 in India, Italy and USA respectively with CI of 95%, and the prediction model was found appropriate from residual plot. Keywords: India, USA, Italy, Coronavirus, mortality counts, regression, correlation.
I.
INTRODUCTION
The epidemic of COVID-19 (Coronavirus illness) instigated by SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) has been established a destruction on the society of man. After its appearance in the Chinese town of Wuhan (district of Hebei), it's been a perennial stride of fresh cases and loss of lives [9]. The unique mutation of the virus and its related unknown factors is what makes it more terrifying [2]. Local outbreak of COVID-19 was among the people exposed to the seafood market before the end of December 2019, due to the spread of the epidemic, the virus spread to communities through the early-infected people, forming community transmission. Interpersonal and cluster transmission occurred in multiple communities and families in Wuhan. The epidemic rapidly expanded and spread from Hubei Province to other parts of China due to the great mobility of personnel during the Chinese Lunar New Year, while the number of COVID-19 cases in other countries gradually increased. The plan of action was to avoid its advance by communal quarantine and a scientific protection mode to produce new fast examination equipment and medicines [1,3,7]. Coronavirus is a genus of RNA viruses in the Coronaviridae genus of viruses, Nidovirales order [10]. Coronaviruses are categorized onto three classes, based on the spikes created by the virus' various protein structures (spike, envelope & nucleocapside) [8]. The coronavirus SARS lies within category 2. Currently we get more than 26 million patented ostentatious with Covid-19 yielding far more than 870 thousand deaths worldwide.[4] In India, however as the statistics on 11 May 2020, we got approximately 59,000 confirmed cases with 1981 demise.[6] A number of nations along with India entered a condition of quarantine to keep the fatal disease from spreading. With latest quick-diagnostic tools entering including prosecutions with possibly obliging medicine, we require a greater grasp of the cycle of illness, and what it might bring in the coming months. For all data relating to the CoV-2 accessible from credible sources, we prefer to assimilate available data on overall rates of infection, overall fatalities, recovery statistics from around the world then allow statistical analyzes about what we can anticipate in India, USA and Italy in the future months.
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