The View from Ireland Still Crazy After 25 Years

By Maurice Fit zpat rick

The timing of the brokering of the Windsor Framework could hardly be more propitious for most of its stakeholders. Those who wish to implement it in the UK, Irish and US governments and across the EU all have the wind at their backs The UK has faced waves of dissatisfaction with the economic downturn resulting from Brexit, manifesting principally in strikes across crucial public service providers It needed a ?victory?to placate its discontented population. While Northern Ireland is of no interest to the British public, the prospect of a trade deal with the EU certainly is and that has a direct effect on their lives. The EU had made a trade deal contingent upon bedding down the Northern Ireland Protocol, or the Windsor Framework as it is now known after it was put through the political and PR laundromat (washed down with tangible improvements on the regulation of goods travelling from Great Britain to Northern Ireland).

The Irish government is obviously relieved that the interminable playacting over the Protocol seems to be over Since Brexit, when the Irish government signs off on an aspect of Northern Irish affairs the EU is almost certain to support it Like the EU, the US also made a trade deal with the UK conditional upon the Northern Ireland Protocol So, Washington can look forward to better relations with London now That also chimes well with the appointment of Joe Kennedy as Special Envoy to Northern Ireland and President Biden?s April visit to Ireland Moreover, a large majority who live in Northern Ireland are greatly relieved that the economic limbo in which they have been suspended now appears to be nearly over They can make the pitch that Northern Ireland enjoys unique access to the EU and UK markets; Washington is lending credibility to that claim with the promise of a surge of investment in Northern Ireland So, everyone is happy? Of course not Welcome to Northern Ireland

At time of writing, the DUP, the largest unionist party, and the cause of the ongoing suspension of the Northern Ireland Assembly, has not endorsed the Windsor Framework One action of the party is ?taking time?to scour the legalese of the dense agreement before declaring its position; the other wing, led by Sammy Wilson and Ian Paisley Jr , has already repudiated the advances of the agreement Even so, the Prime Minister of the UK, Rishi Sunak, has taken ownership of this deal, and he has enough support in Westminster for the protocol to pass through And the Leader of the Opposition, Keir Starmer, has also pledged to support it So, if the DUP continue to oppose it, they will only further distance themselves from the mothership

Leader of the DUP, Jeffrey Donaldson, who has not yet declared his position on the agreement, is anxious to bring his party with him in whatever policy he espouses It is not clear what he will do, but if he does embrace it one aspect of the agreement is likely to be central to his attempt to sell it to his party The ?Stormont brake?clause in the agreement enables a group of 30 Northern Irish Assembly members (out of 90) to block an EU law if it can demonstrate that that law will negatively impact the lives of their constituents.

Alternatively, a group of 30 could attempt to trigger the break if they can demonstrate that a new EU law represents a democratic deficiency (since Northern Ireland no longer has political representation in the EU). In practice, such a demand, if made, will almost certainly come from unionists and it is certainly possible that unionist members of the assembly could muster the requisite 30 votes.

However, they should think three times before doing so. The ?brake?must ultimately be pulled by the UK government, which would have to decide whether remonstrating with the EU over a Northern Irish grievance is in its interests. Even the most pro-unionist British government will be unwilling to do so since London?s priority will be its trade deal with the EU. Given how contemptuous London has been towards unionism since Brexit, it is almost impossible to imagine London acting in accordance with such a petition from unionists.

London has repeatedly used Northern Ireland as a political football in its negotiations with the EU since 2016, and it has never worked. The Tories, under Rishi Sunak, appear to finally have faced reality. They will convey that reality to unionist politicians who attempt further wreckage.