Food to go stats indicate continued pressure on sector

The latest food to go market performance is a mixed bag, but there appear to be opportunities out there for innovative operators.

Wholesale experts TWC Group, in partnership with food to go and out-of-home tracking programme MealTrak, have delivered the latest statistics for 12 w/e 20 February 2023.

Results show the number of out-of-home eating occasions were +2% higher than the comparable period in 2022, on a 52-week/MAT basis. However, in the latest 12 weeks, the number of out-of-home eating occasions fell by -7% vs the equivalent period in 2022. In the same time period, occasions in the ‘eating out’ channel (comprising pubs, restaurants and hotels) declined by -8% vs the previous year. Pubs continue to outperform the other sub-channels (-6%), ahead of restaurants (-8%) and hotels (-19%).

Total food to go occasions declined by -7% in the latest 12 weeks, driven by transportation sites (-54%), high street (-46%), forecourts (-22%), fast food and takeaway (-16%), sandwich shops and cafes (-11%), independent convenience stores (-11%) and workplace (-9%).

But the clear winners remain the multiples (+5%) and the discounters (+28%) with their more affordable food to go offer. Coffee shops and cafes also recorded modest growth, at 3%.

Value sales are up +14% on a 52 week/MAT basis; with a more modest growth rate of +2% on a 12-week ending basis versus 2022.

Tom Fender, development director at TWC, said: “While total out-of-home eating occasions fell by -7% in the latest 12 weeks, this decline is not as deep as the previous period (wave 110), when we reported occasions in decline by -12%. Value sales are in growth (just) on an annual basis, so there is room for cautious optimism.

“As always, beneath the topline figures, there is a mixed picture. The discounters and multiples continue their longstanding outperformance, while coffee shops and cafes have emerged this month with +3% growth vs the total food-to-go market at -7%, based on occasions in the latest 12 week period.

“While the out-of-home market continues to face many headwinds, we do see opportunities for those operators that really know their customer and are investing in relevant innovation that meets the needs of the post-pandemic, economically challenged consumer.

“For instance, we’ve seen a shift in spending into the back-end of the week, which represents more leisuredriven occasions. This could well be the driver of the coffee shop occasion, which is an affordable leisure mission.”