Trend Report Self Sustained
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Student ID Number Student Name Course Name Course Level Module Name
200993178 Wen-Hsin, Feng Fashion Marketing 2 DESN 2365 Trends & Forecasting
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Contents
Contents Zeitgeist: Climate Change & Sustainability
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Trend Innovators
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Trend Drivers
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Trend Impacts
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Trend Consequences
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Trend Futures
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Evolution of Trend
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References
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List of Images
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Zeitgeist: Climate Change & Sustainability Climate Change is a megatrend which is gradually gaining momentum across the globe through various channels and in various forms, fuelling the increasing concerns of consumers and their interests in sustainable living, and brands which can provide products to aid them in this goal. This push of consumer interest towards sustainable living can be traced back to numerous areas of forces, including world events, sports and entertainment, arts and design, science and technology. In world events, major reports and agreements in regards to climate change have been and are continuously being published and signed, such as the recently signed Paris Climate Change Agreement, the first universal legally binding climate deal (European Commission, 2016). Also, recent major natural and manmade disasters and its consequential impact have similarly grabbed a hold the concerns of many, including the nuclear reactor melt-downs in Fukushima Japan due to massive earthquakes on the 13th of March 2011 (Environmental History Timeline, [no date]) (Image 1). In sports, competition organisers are increasingly shouldering their socialenvironmental responsibilities, with 2014 FIFA World Cup in BrazilTM being the first in the organisation’s attempt to hold the event following a comprehensive sustainability strategy addressing areas such as green building, waste management, carbon footprint and renewable energy (Go Green, no date). In entertainment, there is an increasing
rise in publications of literature and productions of films surrounding the theme of the apocalypse and the postapocalyptic world (Young, 2011). Additionally, influential individuals and organisations in the industry campaigning and voicing their concerns regarding climate change and surrounding issues have also aided the widespread of concern amongst consumers. For example, Emma Watson wearing a Calvin Klein dress made from recycled plastic bottles to the Met Gala 2016 in participation of the Green Carpet Challenge (Spedding, 2016). In arts and design, growing concerns for sustainability can be witnessed through initiatives and projects such as The Land Art Generator Initiative, proposed to combine public art structures with sustainable power generation while inspiring and educating their viewers (Wong, 2015) (Image 2). In technology, many products engaging in sustainable technologies are fast emerging and increasingly being adopted by consumers, as can be demonstrated by UK’s recent increase in demands for electric and hybrid car by 48% and 133% respectively (Murray, 2016). All the above evidence point towards an undeniable growth of public concern towards Sustainability, verifying the theme as one of the Zeitgeists of the current day and age.
Lifestyle Trend: Self Sustained Living
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Hans-Josef Fell (Image 3) Served as the German MP for green party Alliance 90 from 1998 to 2013, Fell is the president of the Energy Watch Group and the ambassador for 100% Renewable Energy (Hans Josef Fell, no date). A driving force for the wide-spread adoption of renewable energy in Germany, Fell lives in a wooden house with a grass roof, a backyard covered by photovoltaic and solar hot water panels, and a basement with a co-generator which burns sunflower or rapeseed oil to produce electricity and heat on days with insufficient sunlight (Kunzig, 2015). Described as a bald man in jeans and Birkenstocks with a fringe of grey beard, Fell expresses his belief that the environmental movement should not be about doing less and consuming less, but about doing things differently, in a
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sustainable way (Kunzig, 2015). Wendelin Einsiedler (Image 4) A diary farmer, Einsiedler collects and ferments corn sillage and manure and burns the biogas in a cogenerators to create heat and electricity for his farm and also pipe the excess into the village, Wildpoldsried to heat all the public buildings, an industrial park and 130 homes, saving huge amounts of CO2 (Kunzig, 2015). Mark Sumner (Image 5)
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Lecturer in Sustainability, Fashion & Retail at University of Leeds, Sumner takes pride and joy in converting his house into a self-sustaining haven through measuring and recording personal carbon footprint and his house’s energy usage and heat production efficiencies, double
Trend Innovators 10
glazing windows and roof and wall insulation to retain heat, and installing ground source heat pumps to save on energy for heating. He also harvest rain water, uses a wood burning stove and commutes by biking (Sumner, 2016). Pascal Mittermaier (Image 6) As the Global Managing Director for Cities at The Nature Conservancy, Mittermaier leads a team which focuses on guiding growing cities on harnessing nature’s power to build “resilient, livable, thriving communities” (Nature Conservancy, no date). Most recently, Mittermaier served as the Head of Sustainability, Europe and Managing Director for London’s Elephant & Castle Regeneration at Lend Lease, responsible for embedding creative environment and social approaches across all Lend Lease businesses (Nature Conservancy, no date). He also sits on the board of
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FSC UK (Field Studies Council) and often lectures on Cambridge University’s Program for Sustainable Leadership (Nature Conservancy, no date). Mittermaier holds backgrounds in Economics and History and in Climate Change and Sustainable Development. Pliny Fisk III (Image 7)
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sity, and has also held teaching positions at the University of Oklahoma and Mississippi State University (CMPBS, no date). Fisk holds backgrounds in architecture, landscape architecture, and the systems sciences (CMPBS, no date). From these innovators, a rough outline of an early adopter’s consumer profile can be drawn. Gender: Men. Age: 35-65.
Founder of Centre for Maximum Potential Building Systems, “a non-profit organisation which designs and tests innovative programs that integrate air, water, food, energy, and material systems to build healthy and sustainable communities” (CMPBS, no date). Fisk also cofounded Austin, Texas’s green building program, one of the world leaders in such projects, and a template for the many others to come (CMPBS, no date). Fisk has previously been on the faculty at Ball State University, The University of Texas at Austin, and Texas A&M Univer-
consultants, university lecturers in the field, green organisation leaders/directors, researchers and innovators in the field. Education: Undergraduate degree and above, majority holding a Doctorate. Income: Mid-high to high income level (Drapers, 2012). Social-economic class: Mid-high to high level.
Generation: Generation X and Baby Boomers.
Region: Western part of the world, including the US and Europe.
Life Stage: Married without children, or Family.
Area: Urban, Suburban.
Occupation: Working in sustainability related roles and industries, such as sustainability and environmental
Housing type: Independent house.
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Politics:
Economics:
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The US and China, the world’s two largest political powers and also greenhouse gas emitters, both ratified the Paris Agreement in September 2016, an optimistic turn of events as these two nations have historically been known to be disinclined to signing any form of climate or environmental agreement (Milman, 2016) (Image 8).
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Syrian War, ISIS, terrorism and the victims and refugees of wars in the Middle East causing great political and social unrest on a global scale (Smith, 2015), evoking fear amongst societies and driving people’s need of a sense of safety and distance from these dangers.
Mckinsey estimates an addition of $1 trillion to the global economy by 2025 and 100,000 new jobs by shifting away from a linear economy towards a circular one (Perella, no date). WRAP predicts that UK’s figures for circular economy will raise from the 19% in 2010 to 27% by 2020 (Perella, no date). Industry is slowly learning to change and adapt, but also guide behaviour change in consumers (Perella, no date).
Trend Drivers Image 8
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Social: 1.
Increasing efforts in educating the public and raising social awareness regarding issues of sustainability through influential figures and leaders in sports and entertainment (FIFA and Emma Watson mentioned previously); works of art and design (Wong, 2015); and incorporation of sustainability into traditional degree programs (Grant, 2012).
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Rise in apocalyptic dystopian film and literature, reflecting and further spreading societies’ angst and unease for a deteriorating planet, and possibly, a degrading civilisation and society through war, disease, and natural disasters (Young, 2011). This drives the need for people to feel prepared for harder times ahead, and being resilient and self-relying. Also may drive people to face away from all this anxiety through distance and disconnection.
Technological: Growing adoption and innovation of products using and involved in renewable energy sources such as electric cars (Murray, 2016) and solar power panels (Neslen, 2016).
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Environmental: 1.
Rise in natural disasters and climate anomalies such as the Fukushima, Japan nuclear reactor melt-downs from the massive earthquake and tsunami in 2011, rising awareness on climate change and driving countries such as Germany and Switzerland to cease expansion of nuclear power plants and opt for sustainable energy sources (Environmental History Timeline, no date).
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Diminishing raw materials and resource crunch accompanied by the growing pressure of an exponentially expanding population causing geopolitical tension and growing risk and costs in resource extraction (Perella, no date). Creating a sense of urgency in becoming self-sustaining and non-reliant on raw materials and noncircularly resources.
Legal: Paris Climate Change Agreement, the first universally legally binding climate deal (European Commission, 2016), will commit the 75 nations which have ratified in efforts to ensure that the average global temperature does not rise more than 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels (Milman, 2016).
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Trend Impacts Societal, Political, and Environmental unrest and turbulence evokes public fear and anxiety, driving people’s need for a sense of safety with distance from danger. Through preparation of a self-relying, resilient lifestyle in disconnected circled-off communities of circular economies, these people are assured. An example are the Prepper communities (Image 12) and Homesteaders (Image 13) (Zand, 2015).
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Diminishing resources, coupled with an exponentially growing global population and changing regulations are pressuring and driving industries, businesses, and consumers into the adoption of a sustainable circular economy (Perella, no date). Businesses are changing manufacturing processes and structures to achieve a clean and efficient closed cycle. Business models are also changing into leasing/sharing economies with service as product, and use over ownership, so companies are better able to keep track of their products, manage its life-cycle and retrieve them for repair and remanufacture with ease (Perella, no date).
With growing public concern for climate change and fast emerging technological innovations, questions of sustainability are being addressed in revolutionary and extensive ways, completely re-inventing ways of living to achieve a carbon neutral, net-zero capable, and self-sustaining lifestyle (Parker, 2016). Adopted changes include measuring personal carbon footprint (Sumner, 2016); consuming products and services produced through closed manufacturing cycles and the circular economy; installing equipment such as photovoltaic/solar hot water panels, electricity and heat co-generators which burn renewable plant oil (Kunzig, 2015). Apart from individual effort, there has also been great increases in numbers of sustainable city projects to cater for demands of community dwellings that are carbon neutral, net-zero capable, and self-sustaining, and natural disaster resilient, with greenhouse gas emission reduction technologies and strategies, energy efficiency structures, on-site clean energy plants, cycle-walkpublic transport infrastructures and large parks in these cities (Parker, 2016). These self-sustained communities gradually facilitate localisation of many industries and businesses. (Image 17)
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Concern and alarm for the deteriorating natural environment and fear of unsustainable and polluting systems damaging communities are one of the main drivers for sustainable movements and campaigns reaching the mass majority, resulting in countries such as Germany and Switzerland changing national policy regarding energy sources due to Fukushima’s nuclear reactor melt-downs (Environmental History Timeline, no date). More achievable and obvious approaches towards the Self Sustained lifestyle trend some early majorities have adopted include products which supply consumers with some extent of self-
reliance for food, water, and energy, including kitchen herb/salad growing kits, domestic food waste composting equipment, solar panels, and rain water harvesting systems, wall, roof and widow insulating, electric/hybrid cars (Murray, 2016), and commute via cycling (Sumner, 2016). Also, late majorities are increasingly seen to be adopting products with ‘sustainable’ ‘green’ labels, often misleading and green washing, such as ‘bio-degradable’, ‘organic’, ‘completely natural’, and ‘does not contain any chemicals’ (Dahl, 2010).
Trend Consequences
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As part of a Self Sustained lifestyle, multi-purpose products will be valued. Home gadgets, furniture or garments which are composed of parts that can be taken apart and repurposed into other gadgets/furniture/garments, and products designed for ease of maintenance and repair will become the preferred choice (Perella, no date). As a result of tightening regulations and allowance of waste and carbon emissions levels (Milman, 2016), mapping of personal carbon footprint, and brands to map and label their product’s carbon footprint will become an obligation. Also, dietary shifts towards a vegetarian/vegan one 28
as it has a much lower carbon footprint and is easier to sustain in the highly populated and urbanised world (Wilson, 2013). Planned integration of nature into the centre of urban cities, equip the Self Sustained communities with the ability to neutralise its own carbon emissions, becoming carbon neutral and net-zero capable (Parker, 2016)(Image 23).
Trend Futures
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Evolution of Trend
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With the ever efficient, compact, strictly regulated and systemised communities, some will start detesting the stream-lined, cold, and robotic lifestyle and crave for the feeling of warmth, nature, and humanity again. Households with greater income and ability will be compelled to leave these utilitarian communities and move back into suburban or rural areas, embracing nature. This yearning for the primitive past of humane origins will lead to a new
emerging macrotrend: ‘Seeking Humanity’, which desires for products and services with a human touch, a rough and raw imperfection. DIY and hand crafted items will become popular. As a result of a sharing economy, personal possession is scarce and a luxury, with the emerging new trend, there will be a rise in value and desire for vintage antiques and heritage items (or the appearance of them).
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References Centre for Maximum Potential Building Systems. [no date]. Pliny Fisk III. [Online]. Accessed 10 December]. Available from: http://www.cmpbs.org/who-we-are/ staff/pliny-fisk-iii Dahl, R. 2010. Greenwashing: Do You Know What You’re Buying? [Online]. [Accessed 10 December]. Available from: http://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/118-a246/ Environmental History Timeline. [no date]. 2010 – 2012. [Online]. [Accessed 22 October 2016]. Available from: http://66.147.244.135/~enviror4/21st-century/20teens/ Environmental History Timeline. [no date]. 2010-2012. [Online]. [Accessed 22 October 2016]. Available from: http://66.147.244.135/~enviror4/21st-century/20teens/ European Commissions. 2016. Paris Agreement. [Online]. [Accessed 3 November 2016]. Available from: https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/ negotiations/paris/index_en.htm Go Green. [no date]. 2014 FIFA World Cup To Host A 'Green Event'. [Online]. [Accessed 23 November 2016]. Available from: http://www.go-green.ae/ greenstory_view.php?storyid=2086 Hans Josef Fell. [no date]. Hans-Josef Fell. [Online]. [Accessed 10 November]. Available from: http:// www.hans-josef-fell.de/content/index.php/ dokumente/documents-in-foreign-languages Kunzig, R. 2015. Germany Could Be a Model for How We’ll Get Power in the Future. National Geographic. [Online]. 15 October. [Accessed 10 November]. Available from: http:// ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2015/11/climatechange/germany-renewable-energy-revolution-text Milman, O. 2016. Paris climate deal a 'turning point' in global warming fight, Obama says. The Guardian. [Online]. 5 October. [Accessed 20 October 2016]. Available from: environment/2016/oct/05/obama-paris-climate-dealratification Murray, J. 2016. UK demand soars for electric and hybrid vehicles. The Guardian. [Online]. 7 January. [Accessed 22 October 2016]. Available from: https:// www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jan/07/ukdemand-soars-for-electric-and-hybrid-vehicles Nature Conservancy. [no date]. Meet Our Experts, Cities: Pascal Mittermaier. [Online]. [Accessed 10 November]. Available from: http://www.nature.org/newsfeatures/ pressreleases/media/pascal-mittermaier-globalmanaging-director-cities.xml 34
Neslen, A. 2016. Renewable energy smashes global records in 2015, report shows. The Guardian. 1 June. [Online]. 11 June. [Accessed 22 October 2016]. Available from: https://www.theguardian.com/ environment/2016/jun/01/renewable-energysmashes-global-records-in-2015-report-shows Parker, L. 2016. Green Buildings Renew Austin's Core. National Geographic. [Online]. 9 December. [Accessed 10 December]. Available from: http:// www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/urbanexpeditions/austin/austin-green-buildings-fight-urbansprawl/ Perella, M. [no date]. 10 things you need to know about the circular economy. [Accessed 20 October 2016]. Available from: https://www.theguardian.com/ sustainable-business/10-things-need-to-know-circulareconomy Smith, H. 2015. Shocking images of drowned Syrian boy show tragic plight of refugees. The Guardian. [Online]. 2 September. [Accessed 20 October 2016]. Available from: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/ sep/02/shocking-image-of-drowned-syrian-boy-showstragic-plight-of-refugees Spedding, E. 2016. Met Gala 2016: Emma Watson wears a Calvin Klein dress made from recycled plastic bottles. The Telegraph. [Online]. 3 May. [Accessed 3 November 2016]. Available from: http:// www.telegraph.co.uk/fashion/events/met-gala-2016emma-watson-wears-a-calvin-klein-dress-made-from-r/ Sumner, M. 2016. Lecture 1 Introduction. [PowerPoint presentation]. DESN 1175 Green Design and Sustainability. University of Leeds. Wilson, L. 2013. The carbon foodprint of 5 diets compared. [Online]. [Accessed 10 December]. Available from: http://shrinkthatfootprint.com/food-carbonfootprint-diet#FAKqQQ00Y4XEzPkV.99 Wong, K. 2015. Public art projects that double as renewable energy sources. The Guardian. [Online]. 6 November. [Accessed 22 October 2016]. Available from: https://www.theguardian.com/sustainablebusiness/2015/nov/06/renewable-energy-climatechange-land-art-generator-initiative Young, M. 2011. Why is dystopia so appealing to young adults?. The Guardian. [Online]. 23 October. [Accessed 22 October 2016]. Available from: https:// www.theguardian.com/books/2011/oct/23/dystopian -fiction Zand, B. 2015. The British people preparing for the end
of the world. BBC News. [Online]. 27 October. [Accessed 10 December]. Available from: http://www.bbc.co.uk/ news/magazine-34637377
List of Images Image 1: Bloomberg. 2012. Danger zone: Members of the media and Tepco employees walk in front of the No. 4 reactor building at Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant in May 2012. [Online]. [Accessed 22 October 2016]. Available from: http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/10/31/ national/media-national/cancer-fukushima-trust/ #.WEly0H1skq9 Image 2: Lee, T. [no date]. A rendering of the WindNest project. If Pittsburgh officials approve the proposed design, the structure would work by providing renewable energy for charging mobile gadgets. [Online]. 6 November. [Accessed 22 October 2016]. Available from: https:// www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2015/ nov/06/renewable-energy-climate-change-land-artgenerator-initiative Image 3: Hans Josef Fell. [no date]. Hans-Josef Fell. [Online]. [Accessed 10 November]. Available from: http:// www.hans-josef-fell.de/content/index.php/ dokumente/documents-in-foreign-languages Image 4: Wildpoldsreid. [no date]. Initiator und Geschäftsführer :Wendelin Einsiedler. [Online]. [Accessed 10 November 2016]. Available from: http:// www.wildpoldsried.de/index.shtml?ener Image 5: Drapers. 2012. Marks & Spencer’s sustainable raw materials specialist reveals his role’s rewards and challenges. [Online]. [Accessed 10 November 2016]. Available from: https://www.drapersonline.com/businessoperations/a-day-in-the-life-of-marksumner/5035151.article Image 6: Nature Conservancy. [no date]. Pascal Mittermaier. [Online]. [Accessed 10 November]. Available from: http://www.nature.org/newsfeatures/pressreleases/ media/pascal-mittermaier-global-managing-directorcities.xml
University of Texas architecture school, Fisk created a nonprofit center for sustainable design and experimentation. This Airstream was once a centerpiece of a solarbased student design competition. [Online]. [Accessed 10 December]. Available from: http:// www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/urbanexpeditions/austin/austin-green-buildings-fight-urbansprawl/ Image 8: Reuters. 2016. President Xi Jinping and Barack Obama after ratifying the agreement at the G20 summit in Hangzhou, China on Saturday. [Online]. [Accessed 10 December]. Available from: http://www.independent.co.uk/ environment/paris-climate-change-agreement-chinaand-us-ratify-landmark-deal-to-fight-climate-changea7223746.html Image 9: Ellen MacArthur Foundation. [no date]. Circular Economy System Diagram. [Online]. [Accessed 10 December]. Available from: https:// www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/circular-economy/ interactive-diagram Image 10: MusicGamesMoviesMore. 2013. Children of Men – Soundtrack. [Online]. [Accessed 10 December]. Available from: https://www.youtube.com/watch? v=4wyOqbrErFE Image 11: Reuters. [no date]. Applicants walk into the entrance of a university to take part in the entrance exam for postgraduate studies in Wuhan, Hubei province, China. [Online]. [Accessed 10 December]. Available from: http:// www.ibtimes.co.uk/world-population-day-2016amazing-photos-huge-gatherings-overcrowding-can-wecope-1569664
Image 12: DIY Prepping. [no date]. Survivalist, Prepper and Homesteader. [Online]. [Accessed 10 December]. Available from: http://diyprepping.com/survivalist-prepperhomesteader/ Image 13:
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DIY Prepping. [no date]. The Homesteader. [Online]. [Accessed 10 December]. Available from: http:// diyprepping.com/survivalist-prepper-homesteader/
Fengkov, M. [no date]. An early disruptor, Pliny Fisk III helped found Austin’s green building program, which became a model for others. While on the faculty of the
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Woo Commerce. [no date]. The impact and opportunity of the sharing economy for eCommerce. [Online]. [Accessed 10 December]. Available from: https:// woocommerce.com/2016/09/sharing-economyecommerce/
Katiebordner. [no date]. Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. [Online]. [Accessed 10 December]. Available from: http://matadornetwork.com/pulse/13-worlds-bestcities-vegetarians/ Image 23:
Image 15: Steenwinkel, K., Scholten, H. and Leeus, M. [no date]. CHIBB House 1. [Online]. [Accessed 10 December]. Available from: http://inhabitat.com/the-rotterdammenagerie-living-in-a-giant-greenhouse/ Image 16: Steenwinkel, K., Scholten, H. and Leeus, M. [no date]. CHIBB House 2. [Online]. [Accessed 10 December]. Available from: http://inhabitat.com/the-rotterdammenagerie-living-in-a-giant-greenhouse/ Image 17: Rasmussen, B. [no date]. In the Seaholm EcoDistrict, the courtyard is a venue for music events; residences and businesses like Trader Joe's are built around it. [Online]. [Accessed 10 December]. Available from: http:// www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/urbanexpeditions/austin/austin-green-buildings-fight-urbansprawl/ Image 18: Urban Cultivator. [no date]. At Home in Any Kitchen. [Online]. [Accessed 10 December]. Available from: http://www.urbancultivator.net/kitchen-cultivator/ Image 19: Volkswagen. [no date]. Volkswagen e-Golf. [Online]. [Accessed 10 December]. Available from: http:// www.digitaltrends.com/cars/the-best-electric-car-youcan-buy/ Image 20: REX. 2016. Emma Watson in Calvin Klein at the Met Gala. [Online]. [Accessed 22 October 2016]. Available from: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/fashion/events/met -gala-2016-emma-watson-wears-a-calvin-klein-dressmade-from-r/ Image 21: Duffy London. [no date]. Monolith Chair Design 5. [Online]. [Accessed 10 December]. Available from: http://imanada.com/r/213165143/innovativefurniture/213165/ Image 22:
Except. [no date]. Architecture & Interiors. [Online]. [Accessed 10 December]. Available from: http:// www.except.nl/nl/services/58-architecture-interiors Image 24: Danny North. [no date]. Palm. [Online]. [Accessed 10 December]. Available from: https://0www.wgsn.com.wam.leeds.ac.uk/content/ board_viewer/#/69129/page/2 Image 25: Tank. [no date]. Perfect Imperfection. [Online]. [Accessed 10 December]. Available from: https://0www.wgsn.com.wam.leeds.ac.uk/content/ board_viewer/#/69129/page/9 Image 26: World of Interiors. [no date]. Re-wilding. [Online]. [Accessed 10 December]. Available from: https://0www.wgsn.com.wam.leeds.ac.uk/content/ board_viewer/#/69129/page/11