Wake up by Joe Fang

ARION PRESS

THE ALARMING EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE.

NOTICE OF RIGHTS

Copyright @2017 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval system, or transmitted in any form by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without permission of copy right holder. Published by The Arion Press 1802 Hays Street, The Presidio San Francisco, California 94129 Telephone: 415-668-2542 Fax: 415-668-2550 E-mail: arionpress@arionpress.com Web: www.arionpress.com

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I want to dedicate this book to people who do not believe climate change is real. I also want to thank all the people who helped me through this project, particularly, my instructor Ariel who gave me useful and helpful advice to design this book.

DEDICATION

INTRODUCTION

Climate is defined as long-term averages and variations in weather measured over a period of several decades. The Earthâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s climate system includes the land surface, atmosphere, oceans, and ice. Many aspects of the global climate are changing rapidly, and the primary drivers of that change are human in origin. Evidence for changes in the climate system abounds, from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the oceans. Scientists and engineers from around the world have compiled this evidence using satellites, weather balloons, thermometers at surface stations, and many other types of observing systems that monitor the Earthâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s weather and climate. The sum total of this evidence tells an unambiguous story: the planet is warming. Temperatures at the surface, in the troposphere (the active weather layer extending up to about 5 to 10 miles above the ground), and in the oceans have all increased over recent decades. Consistent with our scientific understanding, the largest increases in temperature are occurring closer to the poles, especially in the Arctic. Snow and ice cover have decreased in most areas. Atmospheric water vapor is increasing in the lower atmosphere, because a warmer atmosphere can hold more water. Sea levels are also increasing. Changes in other climate-relevant indicators such as growing season length have been observed in many areas. Worldwide, the observed changes in average conditions have been accompanied by increasing trends in extremes of heat and heavy precipitation events, and decreases in extreme cold.

The majority of the warming at the global scale over the past 50 years can only be explained by the effects of human influences, especially the emissions from burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) and from deforestation. The emissions from human influences that are affecting climate include heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, and nitrous oxide, and particles such as black carbon (soot), which has a warming influence, and sulfates, which have an overall cooling influence, In addition to human-induced global climate change, local climate can also be affected by other human factors (such as crop irrigation) and natural variability. The conclusion that human influences are the primary driver of recent climate change is based on multiple lines of independent evidence. The first line of evidence is our fundamental understanding of how certain gases trap heat, how the climate system responds to increases in these gases, and how other human and natural factors influence climate. The second line of evidence is from reconstructions of past climates using evidence such as tree rings, ice cores, and corals. These show that global surface temperatures over the last several decades are clearly unusual, with the last decade warmer than any time in at least the last 1300 years and perhaps much longer.

In addition to such temperature analyses, scientific attribution of observed changes to human influence extends to many other aspects of climate, such as changing patterns in precipitation, increasing humidity, changes in pressure, and increasing ocean heat content. Further discussion of how we know the recent changes in climate are caused by human activity is provided in Appendix. Natural variations in climate include the effects of cycles such as El NiĂąo, La NiĂąa and other ocean cycles; the 11-year sunspot cycle and other changes in energy from the sun; and the effects of volcanic eruptions. Globally, natural variations can be as large as human-induced climate change over timescales of up to a few decades. However, changes in climate at the global scale observed over the past 50 years are far larger than can be accounted for by natural variability. Changes in climate at the local to regional scale can be influenced by natural variability for multiple decades. This can affect the interpretation of climate trends observed regionally across the U.S. Globally averaged surface air temperature has slowed its rate of increase since the late 1990s. This is not in conflict with our basic understanding of global warming and its primary cause. The decade of 2000 to 2009 was still the warmest decade on record. In addition, global surface air temperature does not always increase steadily. This time period is too short to signify a change in the warming trend, as

climate trends are measured over periods of decades, not years. Such decade-long slowdowns or even reversals in trend have occurred before in the global instrumental record, including three decadelong periods since 1970, each followed by a sharp temperature rise. Nonetheless, satellite and ocean observations indicate that the Earthatmosphere climate system has continued to gain heat energy. Climate models are not intended to match the real-world timing of natural climate variations, models have their own internal timing for such variations. Most modeling studies do not yet account for the observed changes in solar and volcanic forcing mentioned in the previous paragraph. Therefore, it is not surprising that the timing of such a slowdown in the rate of increase in the models would be different than that observed, although it is important to note that such periods have been simulated by climate models, with the deep oceans absorbing the extra heat during those decades.

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INTRODUCTION

TABLE OF CONTENTS

A1 B2 C3 D4

DEDICATION

INTRODUCTION

EVIDENCE

CARBON DIOXIDE

TEMPERATURE

SEA LEVEL

BIBLIOGRAPHY

COLOPHON

A1 B2 C3 D4

EVIDENCE

CLIMATE CHANGE: HOW DO WE KNOW? Early sea-ice breakup in Beaufort Sea, Arctic Ice in the Beaufort Sea, off the Arctic Ocean, suffered significant fracturing and breakup by mid-April in 2016, considerably earlier than the late-May period when this usually happens. NASA ice specialists attribute the change to unusually warm air temperatures during the first months of the year and to strong winds caused by a stalled high-pressure system over the area. The thicker, multi-year ice that once covered the region has largely given way to seasonal, first-year ice that is thinner, weaker and more easily broken up by strong winds.

Images taken by the Operational Land Imager onboard Landsat 8. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Landsat Missions Gallery; â&#x20AC;&#x153;Beaufort Sea Ice Experiences Unusually Early Breakupâ&#x20AC;?; U.S. Department of the Interior/ USGS and NASA.

The Earth’s climate has changed throughout history. Just in the last 650,000 years there have been seven cycles of glacial advance and retreat, with the abrupt end of the last ice age about 7,000 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era—and of human civilization. Most of these climate changes are attributed to very small variations in Earth’s orbit that change the amount of solar energy our planet receives. The current warming trend is of particular significance because most of it is extremely likely (greater than 95 percent probability) to be the result of human activity since the mid-20th century and proceeding at a rate that is unprecedented over decades to millennia. Earth-orbiting satellites and other technological advances have enabled scientists to see the big picture, collecting many different types of information about our planet and its climate on a global scale. This body of data, collected over many years, reveals the signals of a changing climate. The heat-trapping nature of carbon dioxide and other gases was demonstrated in the mid-19th century. Their ability to affect the transfer of infrared energy through the atmosphere is the scientific basis of many instruments flown by NASA. There is no question that increased levels of greenhouse gases must cause the Earth to warm in response. Ice cores drawn from Greenland, Antarctica, and tropical mountain glaciers show that the Earth’s climate responds to changes in greenhouse gas levels. Ancient evidence can also be found in tree rings, ocean sediments, coral reefs, and layers of sedimentary rocks. This ancient, or paleoclimate, evidence reveals that current warming is occurring roughly ten times faster than the average rate of ice-age-recovery warming.

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A1 | EVIDENCE

Temperature data from four international science institutions. All show rapid warming in the past few decades and that the last decade has been the warmest on record. Data sources: NASAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NOAA National Climatic Data Center, Met Office Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit and the Japanese Meteorological Agency. Multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals show that 97 percent or more of actively publishing climate scientists agree: Climate-warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities. In addition, most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position. The following is a partial list of these organizations, along with links to their published statements and a selection of related resources.

These photos of Milan, taken by astronauts on board the International Space Station, are examples of the effect seen when cities replace their older street lighting with LED lamps. In the 2012 image, the illumination level of central Milan is similar to that of its suburbs. In the 2015 image, taken after the transition to LEDs in the cityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s center, the light there is noticeably brighter and bluer, further limiting the ability to see stars from within the city.

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A1 | EVIDENCE

Statement on climate change from scientific associations

American Chemical Society “Comprehensive scientific assessments of our current and potential future climates clearly indicate that climate change is real, largely attributable to emissions from human activities, and potentially a very serious problem.” (2004) American Meteorological Society “It is clear from extensive scientific evidence that the dominant cause of the rapid change in climate of the past half century is human-induced increases in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2), chlorofluorocarbons, methane, and nitrous oxide.” (2012)

American Geophysical Union “Human induced climate change requires urgent action. Humanity is the major influence on the global climate change observed over the past 50 years. Rapid societal responses can significantly lessen negative outcomes.” (Adopted 2003, revised and reaffirmed, 2012, 2013) American Medical Association “Our AMA ... supports the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s fourth assessment report and concurs with the scientific consensus that the Earth is undergoing adverse global climate change and that anthropogenic contributions are significant.” (2013) American Physical Society “The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth’s physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now.” (2007) The Geological Society of America “The Geological Society of America (GSA) concurs with assessments by the National Academies of Science (2005), the National Research Council (2006), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) that global climate has warmed and that human activities (mainly greenhouse gas emissions) account for most of the warming since the middle 1900s.” (2006; revised 2010)

Images taken by the Advanced Land Imager onboard the Earth Observing-1 satellite and the Operational Land Imager on board Landsat 8. Source: NASA Earth Observatory.

â&#x20AC;&#x153;Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scietific research demonstrates the green house gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver.â&#x20AC;?

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A1 | EVIDENCE

Emissions, Concentrations, and Temperature Projections

Two families of scenarios are commonly used for future climate projections: the 2000 Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES, left) and the 2010 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP, right). The SRES scenarios are named by family (A1, A2, B1, and B2), where each family is designed around a set of consistent assumptions: for example, a world that is more integrated or more divided. In contrast, the RCP scenarios are simply numbered according to the change in radiative forcing (from +2.6 to +8.5 watts per square meter) that results by 2100. This figure compares SRES and RCP annual carbon emissions (top), carbon dioxide equivalent levels in the atmosphere (middle), and temperature change that would result from the central estimate (lines) and the likely range (shaded areas) of climate sensitivity (bottom). At the top end of the range, the older SRES scenarios are slightly higher. Comparing carbon dioxide concentrations and global temperature change between the SRES and RCP scenarios, SRES A1fI is similar to RCP 8.5; SRES A1B to RCP 6.0 and SRES B1 to RCP 4.5. The RCP 2.6 scenario is much lower than any SRES scenario because it includes the option of using policies to achieve net negative carbon dioxide emissions before end of century, while SRES scenarios do not. (Data from CMIP3 and CMIP5).

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A1 | EVIDENCE

A1 B2 C3 D4

CARBON DIOXIDE

CARBON EMISSIONS COULD DRAMATICALLY INCREASE RISK OF U.S.

MEGADROUGHTS

Natural droughts like the 1930s Dust Bowl and the current drought in the Southwest have historically lasted maybe a decade or a little less,” said Ben Cook, climate scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University in New York City, and lead author of the study. “What these results are saying is we’re going to get a drought similar to those events, but it is probably going to last at least 30 to 35 years.” According to Cook, the current likelihood of a megadrought, a drought lasting more than three decades, is 12 percent. If greenhouse gas emissions stop increasing in the mid-21st century, Cook and his colleagues project the likelihood of megadrought to reach more than 60 percent. However, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase along current trajectories throughout the 21st century, there is an 80 percent likelihood of a decades-long megadrought in the Southwest and Central Plains between the years 2050 and 2099. The scientists analyzed a drought severity index and two soil moisture data sets from 17 climate models that were run for both emissions scenarios. The high emissions scenario projects the equivalent of an atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration of 1,370 parts per million (ppm) by 2100, while the moderate emissions scenario projects the equivalent of 650 ppm by 2100. Currently, the atmosphere contains 400 ppm of CO2.

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B2 | CARBON DIOXIDE

Goose Lake is one of several lakes on the CaliforniaOregon border that come and go as the amount of water available to fill them changes. In the 2013 image, the lake is relatively full. In the 2015 image, it has completely dried out. When full, Goose Lake spans about 145 square miles (375 square kilometers). Its water is supplied primarily by Californiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Willow Creek. Additional water comes from Oregonâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Thomas Creek. The quantity delivered varies with precipitation, snowmelt and the amount diverted for irrigation.

In the Southwest, climate change would likely cause reduced rainfall and increased temperatures that will evaporate more water from the soil. In the Central Plains, drying would largely be caused by the same temperature-driven increase in evaporation. The Fifth Assessment Report, issued by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2013, synthesized the available scientific studies and reported that increases in evaporation over arid lands are likely throughout the 21st century. But the IPCC report had low confidence in projected changes to soil moisture, one of the main indicators of drought. Until this study, much of the previous research included analysis of only one drought indicator and results from fewer climate models, making this a more robust drought projection. “What I think really stands out in the paper is the consistency between different metrics of soil moisture and the findings across all the different climate models,” said Kevin Anchukaitis, a climate scientist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Woods Hole, Massachusetts, who was not involved in the study. “It is rare to see all signs pointing so unwaveringly toward the same result, in this case a highly elevated risk of future megadroughts in the United States.” “We can’t really understand the full variability and the full dynamics of drought over western North America by focusing only on the last century or so,” Cook said. “We have to go to the paleoclimate record, looking at these much longer timescales, when much more extreme and extensive drought events happened, to really come up with an appreciation for the full potential drought dynamics in the system.”

This study also is the first to compare future drought projections directly to drought records from the last 1,000 years. Modern measurements of drought indicators go back about 150 years. Cook and his colleagues used a well-established tree-ring database to study older droughts. Centuries-old trees allow a look back into the distant past. Tree species like oak and bristle cone pines grow more in wet years, leaving wider rings, and vice versa for drought years. By comparing the modern drought measurements to tree rings in the 20th century for a baseline, the tree rings can be used to establish moisture conditions over the past 1,000 years. The scientists were interested in megadroughts that took place between 1100 and 1300 in North America. These medieval-period droughts, on a yearto-year basis, were no worse than droughts seen in the recent past. But they lasted, in some cases, 30 to 50 years. When these past megadroughts are compared side-by-side with computer model projections of the 21st century, both the moderate and businessas-usual emissions scenarios are drier, and the risk of droughts lasting 30 years or longer increases significantly. Connecting the past, present and future in this way shows that 21st century droughts in the region are likely to be even worse than those seen in medieval times, according to Anchukaitis.“Those droughts had profound ramifications for societies living in North America at the time. These findings require us to think about how we would adapt if even more severe droughts lasting over a decade were to occur in our future,” Anchukaitis said.

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B2 | CARBON DIOXIDE

A blanket around the Earth Most climate scientists agree the main cause of the current global warming trend is human expansion of the “greenhouse effect”— warming that results when the atmosphere traps heat radiating from Earth toward space. Certain gases in the atmosphere block heat from escaping. Longlived gases that remain semi-permanently in the atmosphere and do not respond physically or chemically to changes in temperature are described as “forcing” climate change. Gases, such as water vapor, which respond physically or chemically to changes in temperature are seen as “feedbacks.”

Gases that contribute to the greenhouse effect include:

Nitrous oxide (N2O)

Carbon dioxide. A minor but very important component of the atmosphere, carbon dioxide is released through natural processes such as respiration and volcano eruptions and through human activities such as deforestation, land use changes, and burning fossil fuels. Humans have increased atmospheric CO2 concentration by more than a third since the Industrial Revolution began. This is the most important long-lived “forcing” of climate change.

Water vapor (H2O)

Carbon dioxide (CO2)

Methane (CH4)

Water vapor. The most abundant greenhouse gas, but importantly, it acts as a feedback to the climate. Water vapor increases as the Earth’s atmosphere warms, but so does the possibility of clouds and precipitation, making these some of the most important feedback mechanisms to the greenhouse effect.

Methane. A hydrocarbon gas produced both through natural sources and human activities, including the decomposition of wastes in landfills, agriculture, and especially rice cultivation, as well as ruminant digestion and manure management associated with domestic livestock. On a molecule-for-molecule basis, methane is a far more active greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, but also one which is much less abundant in the atmosphere. Nitrous oxide. A powerful greenhouse gas produced by soil cultivation practices, especially the use of commercial and organic fertilizers, fossil fuel combustion, nitric acid production, and biomass burning.

On Earth, human activities are changing the natural greenhouse. Over the last century the burning of fossil fuels like coal and oil has increased the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). This happens because the coal or oil burning process combines carbon with oxygen in the air to make CO2. To a lesser extent, the clearing of land for agriculture, industry, and other human activities has increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. The consequences of changing the natural atmospheric greenhouse are difficult to predict, but certain effects seem likely: 1. On average, Earth will become warmer. Some regions may welcome warmer temperatures, but others may not. 2. Warmer conditions will probably lead to more evaporation and precipitation overall, but individual regions will vary, some becoming wetter and others dryer. 3. A stronger greenhouse effect will warm the oceans and partially melt glaciers and other ice, increasing sea level. Ocean water also will expand if it warms, contributing further to sea level rise. 4. Meanwhile, some crops and other plants may respond favorably to increased atmospheric CO2, growing more vigorously and using water more efficiently. At the same time, higher temperatures and shifting climate patterns may change the areas where crops grow best and affect the makeup of natural plant communities.

In its Fifth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a group of 1,300 independent scientific experts from countries all over the world under the auspices of the United Nations, concluded there’s a more than 95 percent probability that human activities over the past 50 years have warmed our planet. The industrial activities that our modern civilization depends upon have raised atmospheric carbon dioxide levels from 280 parts per million to 400 parts per million in the last 150 years. The panel also concluded there’s a better than 95 percent probability that human-produced greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have caused much of the observed increase in Earth’s temperatures over the past 50 years. Life on Earth depends on energy coming from the sun. About half the light reaching Earth’s atmosphere passes through the air and clouds to the surface, where it is absorbed and then radiated upward in the form of infrared heat. About 90 percent of this heat is then absorbed by the greenhouse gases and radiated back toward the surface, which is warmed to a life-supporting average of 59 degrees Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius).

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B2 | CARBON DIOXIDE

Less Vulnerable

NDâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;GAIN INDEX SCORE

MAP CO2 EMITTING NATION VULNERABLE NATION CO2 EMITTING AND VULNERABLE NATION NEITHER CO2 EMITTING NOR VULNERABLE NATION

CO2 EMISSION VS. VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE, BY NATION

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50 0,0 0

100,000

00 0, 20

50 ,0 0

1500,000

EMITTED CO2 thousand metric tons of carbon

NATIONS EMITTING AND VULNERABLE IRAQ NIGERIA

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A1 B2 C3 D4

TEMPERATURE

RISING TEMPERATURES: A MONTH VERSUS A DECADE

Recent U.S. Temperature Trends

There have been substantial advances in our understanding of the U.S. temperature record since the 2009 assessment. These advances confirm that the U.S. annually averaged temperature has increased by 1.3°F to 1.9°F since 1895. However, this increase was not constant over time. In particular, temperatures generally rose until about 1940, declined slightly until about 1970, then increased rapidly thereafter. The year 2012 was the warmest on record for the contiguous United States. Over shorter time scales (one to two decades), natural variability can reduce the rate of warming or even create a temporary cooling. The cooling in mid-century that was especially prevalent over the eastern half of the U.S. may have stemmed partly from such natural variations and partly from human influences, in particular the cooling effects of sulfate particles from coal-burning power plants, before these sulfur emissions were regulated to address health and acid rain concerns. Quantifying long-term increases of temperature in the U.S. in a single number is challenging because the increase has not been constant over time. The increase can be quantified in a number of ways, but all of them show significant warming over the U.S. since the instrumental record began in 1895. For example, fitting a linear trend over the period 1895 to 2012 yields an increase in the range Warming is ultimately projected for all parts of the nation during of 1.3 to 1.9°F. Another approach, this century. In the next few decades, this warming will be roughly comparing the average temperature 2°F to 4°F in most areas. By the end of the century, U.S. warming during the first decade of record with is projected to correspond closely to the level of global emissions: the average during the last decade roughly 3°F to 5°F under lower emissions scenarios (B1 or RCP 4.5) of record, yields a 1.9°F increase. involving substantial reductions in emissions, and 5°F to 10°F for A third approach, calculating the higher emissions scenarios (A2 or RCP 8.5) that assume continued difference between the 1901-1960 increases in emissions; the largest temperature increases are pro- average and the past decade average yields a change of 1.5°F. Thus, jected for the upper Midwest and Alaska. the temperature increase cited in Future human-induced warming depends on both past and this assessment is described as future emissions of heat-trapping gases and changes in the amount 1.3°F to 1.9°F since 1895. Notably, of particle pollution. The amount of climate change (aside from however, the rate of rise in temperanatural variability) expected for the next two to three decades is a ture over the past 4 to 5 decades has combination of the warming already built into the climate system by been greater than the rate over earthe past history of human emissions of heat-trapping gases, and the lier decades. expected ongoing increases in emissions of those gases. However, the magnitude of temperature increases over the second half of this century, both in the U.S. and globally, will be primarily determined by the emissions produced now and over the next few decades, and there are substantial differences between higher, fossil-fuel intensive scenarios compared to scenarios in which emissions are reduced. The most recent model projections of climate change due to human activities expand the range of future scenarios considered (particularly at the lower end), but are entirely consistent with the older model results. This consistency increases our confidence in the projections.

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C3 | TEMPERATURE

U.S. average temperature has risen and is expected to rise moreÂâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;how much more depends primarily on the amount of heat-trapping gases emitted globally.

The NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) maintains the GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), one of the most widely-cited global temperature records. To conduct this analysis, scientists at GISS use publicly available data from 6,300 meteorological stations around the world; from ship-based and satellite observations of sea surface temperatures; and from Antarctic research stations. These three data sets are analyzed to account for breaks in station records, urban heating artifacts, and the distribution of stations across the landscape. Then they are loaded into a computer program—available for public download from the GISS web site—that calculates trends in temperatures relative to the average temperature from 19511980. (Note: The GISTEMP analysis is limited to the period since 1880 because of poor spatial coverage of stations and decreasing data quality prior to that time.) Since GISTEMP data is freely available on the web, scientists and journalists often download maps showing the most recent month as soon as the data becomes available. While an individual month, or even a few months, offers interesting insight into the weather, such a short time period can be a distraction from deeper discussions of climate change. Monthly and yearly temperatures are closely tied to weather, while climate scientists are more concerned with decade to century trends.

For instance, the map above depicts temperature anomalies, or changes from the norm, between April and September 2014; it does not show absolute temperatures. Reds and blues show how much warmer or cooler each area was during that period in 2014 compared to an averaged base period of the same months from 1951–1980. Earth has experienced rapid warming in the last few decades, and the most recent decade was the warmest of all. What has happened so far in 2014 extends this ongoing trend. But in the context of climate change, it does not make sense to try to derive much meaning from a single month—or, for that matter, even a single year. Each month, after the most recent month’s data from the meteorological stations has been checked for errors and ingested by the analysis program, it becomes possible to generate graphs and maps that include the most recent month’s data on the GISTEMP website. In recent years, GISS scientists have released an analysis of the previous year in mid-January.

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C3 | TEMPERATURE

Observed U.S. Temperature Change

Temperture Change (Â°F) -1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Great Plains North

Temperture Change (Â°F)

Northeast

Decade

Southeast

Southwest

Northwest

Alaska

Great Plains South

Hawaii

The colors on the map show temperature changes over the past 22 years (1991-2012) compared to the 1901-1960 average, and compared to the 1951-1980 average for Alaska and Hawaii. The bars on the graphs show the average temperature changes by decade for 19012012 (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for each region. The far right bar in each graph (2000s decade) includes 2011 and 2012. The period from 2001 to 2012 was warmer than any previous decade.

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C3 | TEMPERATURE

A1 B2 C3 D4

SEA LEVEL

A VAST, MELTING DESERT

North Atlantic Sea Level Change

Sea Level Rise The oceans are absorbing over 90% of the increased atmospheric heat associated with emissions from human activity. Like mercury in a thermometer, water expands as it warms up (this is referred to as “thermal expansion”) causing sea levels to rise. Melting of glaciers and ice sheets is also contributing to sea level rise at increasing rates. Since the late 1800s, tide gauges throughout the world have shown that global sea level has risen by about 8 inches. A new data set shows that this recent rise is much greater than at any time in at least the past 2000 years. Since 1992, the rate of global sea level rise measured by satellites has been roughly twice the rate observed over the last century, providing evidence of additional acceleration. Projecting future rates of sea level rise is challenging. Even the most sophisticated climate models, which explicitly represent Earth’s physical processes, cannot simulate rapid changes in ice sheet dynamics, and thus are likely to underestimate future sea level rise. In recent years, “semi-empirical” methods have been developed to project future rates of sea level rise based on a simple statistical relationship between past rates of globally averaged temperature change and sea level rise. These Scientists are working to narrow the range of sea level rise promodels suggest a range of additional jections for this century. Recent projections show that for even the sea level rise from about 2 feet to as lowest emissions scenarios, thermal expansion of ocean waters and much as 6 feet by 2100, depending the melting of small mountain glaciers will result in 11 inches of sea on emissions scenario. It is not clear, level rise by 2100, even without any contribution from the ice sheets however, whether these statistical in Greenland and Antarctica. This suggests that about 1 foot of global relationships will hold in the future, sea level rise by 2100 is probably a realistic low end. On the high end, or that they fully explain historical recent work suggests that 4 feet is plausible. Some decision makers behavior. Regardless of the amount may wish to use a wider range of scenarios, from 8 inches to 6.6 feet by 2100. In particular, the high end of these scenarios may be useful for of change by 2100, however, sea decision makers with a low tolerance for risk, Although scientists can- level rise is expected to continue not yet assign likelihood to any particular scenario, in general,higher well beyond this century as a result of both past and future emissions emissions scenarios that lead to more warming would be expected from human activities. to lead to higher amounts of sea level rise. Nearly 5 million people in the U.S. live within 4 feet of the local high-tide level (also known as mean higher high water). In the next several decades, storm surges and high tides could combine with sea level rise and land subsidence to further increase flooding in many of these regions. Sea level rise will not stop in 2100 because the oceans take a very long time to respond to warmer conditions at the Earth’s surface. Ocean waters will therefore continue to warm and sea level will continue to rise for many centuries at rates equal to or higher than that of the current century., In fact, recent research has suggested that even present day carbon dioxide levels are sufficient to cause Greenland to melt completely over the next several thousand years.

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D4 | SEA LEVEL

Image taken by the Multispectral Scanner onboard Landsat 3. Center image taken by the Thematic Mapper sensor onboard Landsat 4. The Right image taken by the Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus sensor onboard Landsat 7. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Landsat Missions Gallery, â&#x20AC;&#x153;Bear Glacier, Alaska,â&#x20AC;? U.S. Department of the Interior / USGS and NASA.

Greenland and Antarctica Ice loss near the poles is one of the most critical changes pushing sea levels higher, a conclusion supported by data of increasing weight and accuracy. Greenland’s contribution to global sea-level rise is the largest, and increases every decade. Studies suggest that its melt grew from 0.09 millimeters per year between 1992 and 2001, expressed as the global sea-level rise equivalent, to 0.59 millimeters per year between 2002 and 2011. Measurements by the twin GRACE satellites (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) show that most of the losses between 2003 and 2013 were coming from the southeast and northwest portions of the island, while the southwest is responsible for more than half of the acceleration of ice loss. The estimated total loss is in the range of more than 200 to more than 300 gigatons per year (1 gigaton is approximately 264 billion gallons of water. Melting 365 gigatons of ice would add 1 millimeter to global sea level; there are 25.4 millimeters in an inch). It is essential to understand, particularly on these short time scales, what part of the mass loss is due to changes in precipitation and surface melting and what part to changes in glacial discharge. The measurements show that the pace of ice loss in Antarctica, while more moderate, remains sizable. Although East Antarctica has little mass loss, West Antarctica’s is significant. The Amundsen Sea region and the Antarctic Peninsula, both in West Antarctica, account for 64 percent of the total, some 180 gigatons per year between 2003 and 2013 (a loss offset by mass gains in East Antarctica, for a total loss for the continent of 67 gigatons per year [Velicogna et al, 2014]). And the Amundsen Sea area was the dominant contributor to the acceleration of ice loss, which increased about 11 gigatons each year.

Antarctica’s contribution to sea-level rise increased from 0.08 millimeters per year between 1992 and 2001 to 0.40 millimeters per year between 2002 and 2011. Together, Greenland and Antarctica contribute about one third of present-day sea level rise. A 2012 study relying on altimetric, interferometric and gravimetric satellite data, as well as modeling, found that the Greenland ice sheet lost 142 gigatons per year between 1992 and 2011, though with an uncertainty of 49 gigatons per year. The same study saw 71 gigatons of ice loss in Antarctica, also with a large uncertainty factor. That adds up to a polar ice-sheet contribution of about 0.59 millimeters of sea-level rise per year for the study period. And a recent reprocessing of GRACE data found 289 gigatons per year of ice-mass loss for Greenland between 2002 and 2014, and 141 gigatons for Antarctica. Another study [Rignot et al., 2014] found a rapid rate of retreat for Amundsen Sea glaciers between 1992 and 2011, with their grounding lines, which separate ice on bedrock from floating ice, receding from 10 to 35 kilometers. These authors concluded that the ice retreats along regions of “retrograde bed elevation”—where the bedrock slopes downward, and farther away from the grounding line, in the inland direction. Ice-sheet numerical models find this configuration to be unstable. Yet Antarctica illustrates the ability of broad-scale averaging to mask highly variable rates of change across regions. Some parts of the frozen continent, shielded by isolation and deep cold, are seemingly impervious to global warming—at least for the present. Queen Maud Land in East Antarctica even appears to be gaining ice mass—some 63 gigatons per year from 2003 to 2013. While not enough to overcome the continent’s net loss of ice, such gains do show that some regions can manage a shift toward higher ice mass, due to greater precipitation and fewer losses.

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2012.0710449 2012.0981445 2012.1252441 2012.1523438 2012.1793213 2012.2064209 2012.2335205 2012.2606201 2012.2877197 2012.3148193 2012.3419189 2012.3690186 2012.3961182 2012.4232178 2012.4503174 2012.4774170 2012.5045166 2012.5316162 2012.5587158 2012.5858154 2012.6127930 2012.6398926 2012.6669922 2012.6940918 2012.7211914 2012.7482910 2012.7753906 2012.8024902 2012.8295898 2012.8566895 2012.8837891 2012.9108887 2012.9379883 2012.9650879 2012.9921875 2013.0192871 2013.0465088 2013.0736084 2013.1008301 2013.1279297 2013.1551514 2013.1822510 2013.2094727 2013.2365723 2013.2637939 2013.2908936 2013.3181152 2013.3453369 2013.3724365 2013.3996582 2013.4267578 2013.4539795 2013.4810791 2013.5083008 2013.5354004 2013.5626221 2013.5897217 2013.6169434 2013.6440430 2013.6712646 2013.6984863 2013.7255859 2013.7528076 2013.7799072 2013.8071289 2013.8342285

482041 347813.50 16.70 86.00 15.36 21.94 86.23 20.59 21.38 478068 345272.59 14.40 86.22 15.06 19.61 86.53 20.29 21.49 478554 344419.59 15.73 88.02 14.64 20.99 88.11 19.87 21.37 478860 345203.00 14.10 88.06 14.18 19.37 88.03 19.42 21.15 478946 347099.91 12.13 89.58 13.82 17.34 89.54 19.06 20.98 476584 344903.31 13.25 90.93 13.62 18.46 90.82 18.87 20.98 474451 342548.19 14.44 89.42 13.56 19.71 89.37 18.83 21.15 473592 341526.59 13.10 90.11 13.56 18.40 90.09 18.85 21.41 475051 343033.09 13.61 89.24 13.58 18.93 89.28 18.89 21.74 476841 344270.59 13.80 89.73 13.59 19.15 89.85 18.91 22.08 475528 343385.41 13.52 89.64 13.60 18.84 89.83 18.93 22.43 478620 344830.69 14.05 88.01 13.72 19.39 88.55 19.05 22.85 385039 277624.91 12.00 85.14 14.02 17.34 85.63 19.36 23.40 478130 346328.31 13.52 85.56 14.58 18.87 86.11 19.91 24.06 478272 346234.59 17.42 85.68 15.37 22.76 86.41 20.71 24.82 477592 347357.91 15.00 84.80 16.37 20.31 85.80 21.70 25.57 476338 347311.81 15.53 84.64 17.56 20.89 85.68 22.89 26.30 467122 343110.09 19.53 85.46 18.85 24.85 86.83 24.18 26.93 469483 345240.81 22.18 86.45 20.05 27.52 87.97 25.38 27.26 463745 341721.31 21.50 87.59 21.06 26.78 89.24 26.38 27.24 463028 341944.31 22.34 88.56 21.92 27.69 90.48 27.24 26.97 463417 343080.81 19.66 89.09 22.84 24.98 91.07 28.18 26.74 461938 342101.00 24.87 90.24 23.99 30.22 92.36 29.33 26.75 461907 342748.31 24.13 88.59 25.31 29.46 90.66 30.66 27.05 459753 341161.00 28.37 89.61 26.57 33.74 91.75 31.93 27.47 459839 339622.41 28.60 91.60 27.52 33.99 93.83 32.87 27.77 463565 341317.31 29.93 89.90 28.00 35.27 92.16 33.36 27.89 463127 340602.41 28.07 88.91 28.05 33.40 91.04 33.43 27.87 467626 344229.00 27.34 88.36 27.83 32.74 90.54 33.22 27.84 468673 344378.81 27.96 87.26 27.48 33.35 89.22 32.89 27.92 472957 345007.31 27.06 86.27 27.09 32.48 88.07 32.52 28.17 478004 346929.41 25.77 84.91 26.68 31.24 86.62 32.12 28.53 479243 346394.69 28.34 84.91 26.19 33.84 86.48 31.66 28.91 478341 344931.31 24.41 85.52 25.64 29.86 86.77 31.11 29.22 480556 346652.91 25.67 85.78 25.04 31.16 86.95 30.53 29.47 484195 348886.50 23.94 84.82 24.47 29.44 85.74 29.96 29.64 480765 346942.69 23.05 86.71 23.96 28.56 87.50 29.47 29.79 475029 342997.69 24.70 86.32 23.52 30.20 87.18 29.04 29.87 468987 337393.41 22.95 85.21 23.16 28.49 86.10 28.68 29.91 478753 345100.69 21.38 85.99 22.86 26.91 86.35 28.40 29.93 480658 347112.81 22.99 88.55 22.62 28.53 88.86 28.17 29.92 476845 345216.91 23.56 89.62 22.35 29.10 90.03 27.92 29.86 477810 343770.31 21.78 90.06 21.96 27.39 90.49 27.55 29.68 127800 91065.60 21.80 87.83 21.41 27.32 88.39 27.02 29.36 319572 230766.20 21.96 90.70 20.76 27.71 91.03 26.37 28.96 479245 344691.59 17.64 88.35 20.07 23.26 88.56 25.69 28.58 477818 343964.00 20.09 91.06 19.37 25.71 91.51 25.00 28.21 479207 345796.19 20.22 92.21 18.64 25.79 92.84 24.26 27.80 479795 346341.41 17.68 90.72 17.86 23.33 91.17 23.49 27.33 477877 344535.09 15.85 89.57 17.17 21.53 89.87 22.79 26.85 476725 345121.41 15.83 88.11 16.71 21.46 88.49 22.34 26.50 475192 346216.19 15.42 86.16 16.61 21.02 86.84 22.23 26.32 472195 345531.81 17.53 84.56 16.87 23.12 85.49 22.49 26.31 469443 344111.09 15.66 84.81 17.46 21.29 86.03 23.07 26.40 466805 343903.00 17.45 84.38 18.24 23.05 85.72 23.85 26.48 461351 341483.19 20.83 86.11 19.06 26.44 87.58 24.68 26.42 462272 341944.00 21.74 85.31 19.81 27.37 87.10 25.44 26.13 460459 342003.09 17.81 86.09 20.56 23.45 87.82 26.18 25.73 460966 342653.50 20.71 86.13 21.44 26.36 88.11 27.06 25.44 326536 242340.50 22.31 85.85 22.53 27.83 87.99 28.16 25.41 232596 173703.41 24.26 87.78 23.75 29.97 89.87 29.38 25.62 457947 340905.59 25.46 89.99 24.94 31.10 91.96 30.58 26.00 458345 340103.00 26.45 91.65 25.98 32.10 93.77 31.62 26.44 462750 342595.81 26.50 90.78 26.80 32.14 93.05 32.44 26.94 462180 342314.50 28.78 89.77 27.30 34.39 92.01 32.95 27.40 463747 343079.41 28.86 90.74 27.41 34.50 93.16 33.07 27.74

482041 347813.50 16.70 86.00 15.36 2 478068 345272.59 14.40 86.22 15.06 1 478554 344419.59 15.73 88.02 14.64 2 478860 345203.00 14.10 88.06 14.18 1 478946 347099.91 12.13 89.58 13.82 1 476584 344903.31 13.25 90.93 13.62 1 474451 342548.19 14.44 89.42 13.56 1 473592 341526.59 13.10 90.11 13.56 1 475051 343033.09 13.61 89.24 13.58 1 476841 344270.59 13.80 89.73 13.59 1 475528 343385.41 13.52 89.64 13.60 1 478620 344830.69 14.05 88.01 13.72 1 385039 277624.91 12.00 85.14 14.02 1 478130 346328.31 13.52 85.56 14.58 1 478272 346234.59 17.42 85.68 15.37 2 477592 347357.91 15.00 84.80 16.37 2 476338 347311.81 15.53 84.64 17.56 2 467122 343110.09 19.53 85.46 18.85 2 469483 345240.81 22.18 86.45 20.05 2 463745 341721.31 21.50 87.59 21.06 2 463028 341944.31 22.34 88.56 21.92 2 463417 343080.81 19.66 89.09 22.84 2 461938 342101.00 24.87 90.24 23.99 3 461907 342748.31 24.13 88.59 25.31 2 459753 341161.00 28.37 89.61 26.57 3 459839 339622.41 28.60 91.60 27.52 3 463565 341317.31 29.93 89.90 28.00 3 463127 340602.41 28.07 88.91 28.05 3 467626 344229.00 27.34 88.36 27.83 3 468673 344378.81 27.96 87.26 27.48 3 472957 345007.31 27.06 86.27 27.09 3 478004 346929.41 25.77 84.91 26.68 3 479243 346394.69 28.34 84.91 26.19 3 478341 344931.31 24.41 85.52 25.64 2 480556 346652.91 25.67 85.78 25.04 3 484195 348886.50 23.94 84.82 24.47 2 480765 346942.69 23.05 86.71 23.96 2 475029 342997.69 24.70 86.32 23.52 3 468987 337393.41 22.95 85.21 23.16 2 478753 345100.69 21.38 85.99 22.86 2 480658 347112.81 22.99 88.55 22.62 2 476845 345216.91 23.56 89.62 22.35 2 477810 343770.31 21.78 90.06 21.96 2 127800 91065.60 21.80 87.83 21.41 27 319572 230766.20 21.96 90.70 20.76 2 479245 344691.59 17.64 88.35 20.07 2 477818 343964.00 20.09 91.06 19.37 2 479207 345796.19 20.22 92.21 18.64 2 479795 346341.41 17.68 90.72 17.86 2 477877 344535.09 15.85 89.57 17.17 2 476725 345121.41 15.83 88.11 16.71 2 475192 346216.19 15.42 86.16 16.61 2 472195 345531.81 17.53 84.56 16.87 2 469443 344111.09 15.66 84.81 17.46 2 466805 343903.00 17.45 84.38 18.24 2 461351 341483.19 20.83 86.11 19.06 2 462272 341944.00 21.74 85.31 19.81 2 460459 342003.09 17.81 86.09 20.56 2 460966 342653.50 20.71 86.13 21.44 2 326536 242340.50 22.31 85.85 22.53 2 232596 173703.41 24.26 87.78 23.75 2 457947 340905.59 25.46 89.99 24.94 3 458345 340103.00 26.45 91.65 25.98 3 462750 342595.81 26.50 90.78 26.80 3 462180 342314.50 28.78 89.77 27.30 3 463747 343079.41 28.86 90.74 27.41 3

21.94 86.23 20.59 21.38 19.61 86.53 20.29 21.49 20.99 88.11 19.87 21.37 19.37 88.03 19.42 21.15 17.34 89.54 19.06 20.98 18.46 90.82 18.87 20.98 19.71 89.37 18.83 21.15 18.40 90.09 18.85 21.41 18.93 89.28 18.89 21.74 19.15 89.85 18.91 22.08 18.84 89.83 18.93 22.43 19.39 88.55 19.05 22.85 17.34 85.63 19.36 23.40 18.87 86.11 19.91 24.06 22.76 86.41 20.71 24.82 20.31 85.80 21.70 25.57 20.89 85.68 22.89 26.30 24.85 86.83 24.18 26.93 27.52 87.97 25.38 27.26 26.78 89.24 26.38 27.24 27.69 90.48 27.24 26.97 24.98 91.07 28.18 26.74 30.22 92.36 29.33 26.75 29.46 90.66 30.66 27.05 33.74 91.75 31.93 27.47 33.99 93.83 32.87 27.77 35.27 92.16 33.36 27.89 33.40 91.04 33.43 27.87 32.74 90.54 33.22 27.84 33.35 89.22 32.89 27.92 32.48 88.07 32.52 28.17 31.24 86.62 32.12 28.53 33.84 86.48 31.66 28.91 29.86 86.77 31.11 29.22 31.16 86.95 30.53 29.47 29.44 85.74 29.96 29.64 28.56 87.50 29.47 29.79 30.20 87.18 29.04 29.87 28.49 86.10 28.68 29.91 26.91 86.35 28.40 29.93 28.53 88.86 28.17 29.92 29.10 90.03 27.92 29.86 27.39 90.49 27.55 29.68 7.32 88.39 27.02 29.36 27.71 91.03 26.37 28.96 23.26 88.56 25.69 28.58 25.71 91.51 25.00 28.21 25.79 92.84 24.26 27.80 23.33 91.17 23.49 27.33 21.53 89.87 22.79 26.85 21.46 88.49 22.34 26.50 21.02 86.84 22.23 26.32 23.12 85.49 22.49 26.31 21.29 86.03 23.07 26.40 23.05 85.72 23.85 26.48 26.44 87.58 24.68 26.42 27.37 87.10 25.44 26.13 23.45 87.82 26.18 25.73 26.36 88.11 27.06 25.44 27.83 87.99 28.16 25.41 29.97 89.87 29.38 25.62 31.10 91.96 30.58 26.00 32.10 93.77 31.62 26.44 32.14 93.05 32.44 26.94 34.39 92.01 32.95 27.40 34.50 93.16 33.07 27.74

482041 347813.50 478068 345272.59 478554 344419.59 478860 345203.00 478946 347099.91 476584 344903.31 474451 342548.19 473592 341526.59 475051 343033.09 476841 344270.59 475528 343385.41 478620 344830.69 385039 277624.91 478130 346328.31 478272 346234.59 477592 347357.91 476338 347311.81 467122 343110.09 469483 345240.81 463745 341721.31 463028 341944.31 463417 343080.81 461938 342101.00 461907 342748.31 459753 341161.00 459839 339622.41 463565 341317.31 463127 340602.41 467626 344229.00 468673 344378.81 472957 345007.31 478004 346929.41 479243 346394.69 478341 344931.31 480556 346652.91 484195 348886.50 480765 346942.69 475029 342997.69 468987 337393.41 478753 345100.69 480658 347112.81 476845 345216.91 477810 343770.31 127800 91065.60 319572 230766.20 479245 344691.59 477818 343964.00 479207 345796.19 479795 346341.41 477877 344535.09 476725 345121.41 475192 346216.19 472195 345531.81 469443 344111.09 466805 343903.00 461351 341483.19 462272 341944.00 460459 342003.09 460966 342653.50 326536 242340.50 232596 173703.41 457947 340905.59 458345 340103.00 462750 342595.81 462180 342314.50

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