IMAGINDIA The Imagindia Institute
Nuclear Energy Constraints and Possibilities in the India of 2011
3rd National Conference on Nuclear Energy ASSOCHAM – Nuclear Energy Group New Delhi July 7, 2011
IMAGINDIA The Imagindia Institute
Discussion Outline Opening Remarks Zeros around nuclear energy
Dangers around nuclear energy Trends in global response post-Fukushima India - The Banyan Tree
Hard Options for India
Background
About Imagindia…
Independent Analyst
Think-do-tank U.S. – India civil nuclear accord
World Energy Council India Nominee re Fukushima impact Japan – India civil nuclear accord
ZEROS AROUND NUCLEAR ENERGY
The engine of India’s development needs all gears meshing seamlessly
The zero sum game of nuclear versus renewable
…versus…
The (unclear) perception of unknown zeros in comparative costs
The zero sum game of international cooperation
‌versus‌
The zero sum debate of domestic versus foreign technologies
DANGERS AROUND NUCLEAR ENERGY
The danger of a Three Mile, Chernobyl, Fukushima…next? Normal Accident Theory – developed by Yales sociologist Charles Perrow after investigating the Three Mile Island accident best summarizes the scientific truth - in any complex system there will occur sometimes a series of unusual outcomes, that taken individually will not trigger a horrific accident, but put them together, and you get a crash
It is disingenuous to argue infallibility – probability versus possibility
TRENDS IN GLOBAL RESPONSE POST-FUKUSHIMA
Sovereign Review
Public Concern & Focus
Industry Review
Multiple Reviews and Introspections Ongoing National Interest
Technology Re-look Global and Multilateral Agencies Industry Platforms (ASSOCHAM) Vendors, Supply Chain Vocal Public Interest
me‌?
Review of regulatory mechanism Await and track Fukushima findings +
Transparency Review of safeguards
other
Review of Sovereign Interest
Improved attempts at public communications
Review of disaster preparedness
Review of site selection procedures
US – India accord
Atoms for Peace Traditionally aligned with geopolitical interest
NSG Re-processing Thorium
Review of Industry India
+
Scientific, no hurry, slogging, innovating
Exploitation of uranium as source since it generates weapons grade material
“Culture”
now deliverables under microscope
India NPT Touch NPT? Say hello to Mr. Porcupine
Thorium
INDIA
yes I desperately need energy I’ve lived without power since countless years what is another 2-3 years? I hear about plans every 2-4 years
will see meanwhile, come, have a cuppa chai
The Banyan Tree The Consumer is Agnostic
…but changing, demanding demographic…
Tech Routes do not Matter
HARD OPTIONS FOR INDIA POST-NSG One. Keep aside NSG. One sixth of global humanity means some thing. Period. Two. Do not buy or ink any deals with any vendor that is constrained by their domestic laws. Same as India is constrained by its national interest and laws. Three. Domestic capacity – take a hard, harsh, and demanding answer from DAE, NPCIL, UCIL, et al – and private sector Four. If all India needs is uranium fuel – then India must go invest in mines anywhere in the world. Compete aggressively. Export small reactors and barter deals Five. Thorium. Invest on mission mode to accelerate exploitation of Thorium World reserves of uranium will not last beyond 70-80 years… …be the Saudi Arabia of bundled solutions 20 years from now
Thanks