Climate – Acurrent overview in plain English
Gerald Ratzer – 8th September 2024
This Climate Overview is planned to be as easy as possible to read and understand. It is aimed at people who completed high school and are not experts in the current state of the climate debate but would like to know more. It encourages Critical Thinking as there are two competing models to describe a very complex system. That said, there is no Mathematics required, and there are no equations or integral signs in the text. The technical details are buried in the many links.
Topic Name
Processes
Researchers
1 Planetary Motion Gravity Milankovic
2 Sun Radiation Zharkova
3 Top ofAtmosphere Radiation Happer
4 Surface reflection Radiation
5 Ocean-Surface Interaction Evaporation Henry, Shula
6 Ocean storage Circulation, Volcanos Wyss Yim
7 Surface first metre Thermalization Conduction Ott & Shula
8 Clouds Convection Svensmark & Shaviv Clauser
9 Lifting Condensation Level Condensation
10 Upper atmosphere De-thermalization Shula
11 Auto-Compression Gravity Holmes, Vinos
12 Bio-Greening Photosynthesis CO2 Coalition
1. Planetary Motion
All the planets and moons in our solar system revolve around each other under the strong force of Gravity. Johannes Kepler figured out that the orbit of planets is not a pure circle, but is an ellipse. Isaac Newton built on this work and discovered the General Law of Gravity. In the early 20th century, Milutin Milankovic took this research a step further. He identified and quantified three more subtle features of planetary motion. These are called Eccentricity, Obliquity and Precession. All three of these processes impact our climate. These are described at this link.
2. Sun
The Sun is the primary source of energy for all planets in our solar system. It may be 150 million kilometres away but does a good job of giving most of us a very pleasant climate. Internally, the Sun has a very large and complex structure, which includes nuclear reactions, very high temperatures, high densities, large magnetic structures and hot plasma. The Sun’s surface, called the photosphere, is often covered with dark spots, called sunspots, which are huge plasma explosions. As part of the complexity of the Sun, there are 11-year solar cycles, which is reflected in the number of sunspots, which are considered a good proxy for solar activity. The number of sunspots varies from zero between cycles and up to 150 or more at the peak of a cycle. These 11-year cycles started in 1749 and have been numbered consecutively so that we are now in cycle 25. Cycle 21 was an active one and the following ones showed a marked decline. There is also an overall periodicity of about 100 years. See the chart below. There was a long cold period with little sunspot action from 1600 to 1700, which is called the Little IceAge. We have been slowly climbing out of this cold period and this climb from 1950 to 2000 accounts for some of the global warming experienced. There are many observatories dedicated to measuring the sunspots and other parameters like the solar wind and the magnetic characteristics of the Sun. The solar magnetic background has been studied by Valentina Zharkova and her technique and empirical data created a model which has been back-tested over centuries and gives excellent validation to her research (video). Aposter summary of her work. Yes, the research work is complex. These links above will give you further details on the Sun. More information is available here from Javier Vinόs on solar activity.
3. Top ofAtmosphere
Also called the edge of space is approximately 150 kilometres above the Earth’s surface. The thickness of the atmosphere varies. It is thickest at the Equator and tapers down at each pole. TOA, as it is abbreviated, is important as an altitude where satellites study different parameters. Among the parameters of interest is a measure of the Sun’s energy arriving at this point called the TSI – for the Total Solar Irradiance. The units for incoming energy are watts per square metre and a typical value might be 1,363 W/m2 . Despite the cycles and periodicity of the Sun, the TSI changes very little and usually lies between 1,360 and 1,366 W/m2 – a range of 6 in 1,360 or less than 0.5%.
An important concept associated with the TOA is that of energy balance. Namely the incoming energy arriving from the Sun should in theory balance with the outgoing radiation to space. If more came in, than what went out, the Earth would heat up – until a balance point is reached. Yes, there have been some slow ups and downs in the Earth’s surface temperature, but there have not been any gross changes. In general, the TOAradiation transfer is never perfectly balanced, but radical changes have not been seen in centuries. There is a high-level idea called Le Chatelier Principle that postulates that Nature uses negative feedback to return any disturbed natural system to its dynamic equilibrium point.
4. Surface reflection
The incoming radiation from the Sun is mainly concentrated in the visible range, with the peak in the color green with a wavelength of 550 nm or .55 microns. On the low-energy side are long infrared (IR) waves (700 nm to 1 mm), some feel warm, but you may not see the rays. On the other high-energy side are the different Ultraviolent bands of UVA, UVB and UVC (10 to 400 nm), which can burn your skin. Most of these rays pass through the upper layers of the atmosphere, but the ozone in the Stratosphere does absorb UV rays. On the way to the surface of the Earth, the Sun’s energy must pass through the Troposphere where our weather takes place. Clouds are the principal cause for incoming rays to be reflected out to space, at the same wavelength One technical term used in this connection is albedo. This is a simple number from 0 to 1 or a percentage of the amount of energy reflected Atypical number for clouds is 30% or 0.3 albedo – also the average planetary albedo. If the rays from the Sun avoid
all the clouds and strike the Earth’s surface, then two things can happen – the energy can be absorbed or reflected. 70% of the Earth’s surface is ocean and is very good at absorbing energy. The ground surface can vary a lot from white snow with an albedo of 0.9 or more, to dark brown dirt, or black asphalt which absorbs most of the incoming energy, with an albedo close to zero. The Urban Heat Island Effect.
5. Ocean-Surface Interaction
The ocean surface interaction with incoming solar rays is very complex. If there is no wind and the water surface is calm, there will be more reflection than on a wavy surface. Large waves will mix the top few metres of the surface water. In the Tropics, we all know it is hot and humid. This leads to another very important process – that of evaporation. People hear much about greenhouse gases (GHGs) and mainly about carbon dioxide (CO2). Rarely is water vapor (WV) treated with the same level of discussion. Our research (Lightfoot & Ratzer) has shown that in the Tropics that there WV molecules outnumber CO2 by about 100 to 1. That is, near the surface of a tropical ocean or the nearby coast there are 100 times more molecules of Water Vapor than molecules of CO2. So, water vapor is the dominant GHG by a large margin. CO2 (420 ppm – parts per million) and methane (CH4 – 2 ppm) are called trace gases for a good reason – their concentration is tiny compared to WV (can be as high as 4% or 40,000 ppm).
Another good source of information on the impact of both the oceans and the atmosphere is from the work of Javier Vinόs with both books and podcasts on the natural climate cycles.
6. Ocean storage
With 70% of the Earth’s surface covered by the ocean and with the high heat storage capacity (specific heat) of water relative to air, the ocean can store close to 1,000 times more heat than the atmosphere can. Because of this, the oceans are a great storage system not just for heat, but also for GHGs like CO2. The oceans also have a very effective circulation system which ties all the oceans together. This circulation is one of the ways that heat is distributed from the Tropics towards the poles. For instance, in theAtlantic, there is the well-known Gulf Stream which flows with the trade winds fromAfrica into the Caribbean and
around the Gulf of Mexico. It is so effective in heading north that the coast of Scandinavia is ice-free year-round. There is a similar circulation in the Pacific. The ocean circulation may not be fast – an average below 5 knots (1 to 3), but it gets to the “four corners” of the Earth. There are more sources of heat and energy other than the Sun. Here we are thinking of volcanos, both above and below the ocean surfaces. The most famous example of this is El Nino, which starts in the western Pacific and is strong enough to reverse the Pacific trade winds and send them back to theAmericas! Submarine volcanoes do not come to mind for most people, but on 15th January 2022, Hunga Tonga in the western Pacific produced a very strong eruption. Apart from ash and rocks, it blasted 146 metric megatons of water into the Stratosphere, where it evaporated and then formed ice crystals. Over the last two years, an increase of close to 1°C has been attributed to this explosion. Wyss Yim has studied the oceans and has measured an increase of some 2°C due to the “Ring of Fire” volcanoes around the Pacific Ocean. Associated with ocean storage are two important climate effects called theAMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) discussed here.
7. Surface first metre
We talked about the ocean surface and the complicated processes there. It is more complex in the first few metres above the surface. The oceans that are warmed by the incoming solar radiation start the combined processes of evaporation and convection. This is where it is important to know the difference between the three types of energy transfer. These are radiation, conduction and convection. The energy coming from the Sun to the surface is by radiation only – which travels at the speed of light. For conduction, two objects must be in contact. The Laws of Thermodynamics say that heating by conduction will cause a flow of heat or energy from a hot source to a cooler sink, relatively slowly (not the speed of light!). At the ocean’s surface heat can be transferred by conduction. This can also happen over land. For convection, you need to be dealing with a gas or a liquid, where a warmer section of the gas or liquid moves up against gravity, because of a difference in density (buoyance). Many scientists and other people have been brainwashed (by IPCC and the media) into believing the Greenhouse Effect (GHE). What this ignores is the well-
measured and known effect of optical density. Any radiant energy that strikes the Earth as visible light will be re-emitted as long wavelength InfraRed (or IR) energy. The mean free path length of this type of energy in moist air is very short, measured in nanometres. Water vapor makes the air very opaque to outgoing IR rays. In the air, there are about a billion molecular collisions per second, so IR photons will also have a collision after a short distance. The GHE ignores this process which is well understood. When any IR radiation is emitted, it collides with the many molecules of the air. The air has two main components Nitrogen (N2) at about 78% and 20% of Oxygen (O2). These two make up some 98% of our air with very few GHGs. These gas molecules are very numerous and will slow down and stop any IR radiation very quickly. This process is called thermalization and essentially converts photons of radiation into heat. Just to be clear, a thermometer measures the heat of a gas (like the air), which is the average kinetic energy of the moving molecules. This process forms an important part of the Thermal Model of climate.
8. Clouds
Very little cloud research has been done over the last couple of centuries. That changed about twenty years ago when a small team of Henrik Svensmark and his son Jacob, along with Nir Shaviv undertook a serious investigation. This included theoretical and experimental work and data collection. Their research used the CERN advanced accelerator to study and look at cosmic rays and how they could impact atmospheric ionization and cloud formation. They found that the solar cycles modulated (controlled) the incoming cosmic rays from distant galaxies (Nature 2021 paper). We have mentioned the solar wind, and this is part of the cloud puzzle being studied. When there were more cosmic rays near Earth (when the solar wind was low) then more nuclei were formed (smashed atom pieces) and these became the centre around which droplets of water form. In the last couple of years, Nobel Laureate John Clauser has joined the discussion on clouds. He has given a few lectures and webinars on why he thinks clouds are very important to our climate. He specifically promotes the hypothesis of a “Cloud Thermostat”. Think about the Tropical oceans – if there are no clouds then the Sun warms the seawater and evaporates large quantities of water vapor. This WV rises and forms clouds which reflect and block much of the sunshine hitting the sea
surface. This will reduce the evaporation rate. So, the clouds act as negative feedback, controlling the amount of evaporation and clouds. See his presentations (77-minute webinar starting at minute 50 for the Cloud thermostat section; Aonehour version – start at minute 34 for the thermostat section) for more details. If you have been in the Tropics, you may have seen a thunderhead or Cumulonimbus cloud forming and then dissipating. This happens relatively quickly (in an hour or two) and builds a magnificent tower of clouds, which can be as high as 30,000 feet. The billowing cloud looks like it is bubbling as it ascends.
9. Lifting Condensation Level
Here is a further detail about clouds. Water that is evaporated into water vapor (WV) demonstrates why this greenhouse gas is different from CO2 and the other GHGs, in that water can exist three phases – 1. as water, 2. as water vapor and 3. as a solid in the form of ice crystals and hail. Many clouds, when seen from a distance seem to have a flat bottom. This is associated with the transition of water vapor back to water. The convection process we have discussed drives the evaporated WV from the water surface up against gravity. As the WV rises it cools, based on the lapse rate, which is 9.8°C/km. The LCL, the Lifting Condensation Level, is the altitude where this transition takes place. Here is a short video to explain the process.
10. UpperAtmosphere
Above the Troposphere are the Stratosphere (altitude of 10 to 50 km) and Mesosphere (50 to 90 km) layers of the upper atmosphere. The Troposphere contains about 75% of the gas molecules of the atmosphere, while 20% is in the Stratosphere and the remaining 5% in the Mesosphere. There is normally little or no water vapor in the upper atmosphere. The Hunga Tonga eruption was exceptional in this respect, blasting a huge amount of WV into the Stratosphere. It is here in the upper atmosphere, where no clouds form, that any excited gas molecules “dethermalize”. This process has an excited molecule emit a photon, while the molecule returns to a lower or its ground state. This converts molecular heat energy into radiation energy (photons) which can be emitted to space. This is called Spontaneous Emission. The thermalization process at sea level and the
reverse process in the upper atmosphere are covered by Markus Ott and Tom Shula in the Tom Nelson podcast 232. Here is a summary of the 110-minute discussion.
11. Auto-Compression
There has been much discussion on how the radiative transfer model can explain the difference between the actual surface temperature of the Earth at 15°C (288°K) and the observed Stefan-Boltzmann temperature of -18°C or 255°K. There is a difference of 33°C, which is “missing”. From a pure scale point of view, there is no way the tiny 0.042% of the atmosphere, which is CO2 (mostly saturated), can account for 33°C. Most scientists who work in this area of research, say that at most CO2 and the GHE can explain about 1°C.
Several researchers including Nikolov and Zeller, Robert Ian Holmes and Javier Vinόs have extensive papers that show how to calculate the surface temperature for planets with an atmosphere, based on auto-compression. This is a conversion of potential energy from molecules raised by the Sun’s evaporation and convection (discussed above) to kinetic energy on the descent under gravity, which is further converted to heat. The temperature of a gas is the average kinetic energy of the gas molecules. The papers are long and technical, but so far no one has put forward counterarguments or pointed out specific errors. They are the crux of the argument over the “Missing 33°C” and why radiation transfer (of IR photons) cannot account for 33°C. Javier Vinos and David Siegel support the Thermal Model.
12. Bio-Greening
No overview of climate and any possible (tiny) global warming would be complete without discussing the benefits of CO2. All life on Earth depends on photosynthesis, which was covered in high school science. Energy from the Sun combines with water and CO2 to provide the start of the food chain that feeds all animals and plants on the Earth and in its oceans. Since 1950 there has been an increase in CO2 from about 310 ppm to the current 421 ppm. Thanks to satellite imagery we can now say that there has been a 30% increase in the “LeafArea Index” (LAI) over the last 30 years. This is absolute proof, based on measured data, of the greening of the Earth. Commercial greenhouse growers understand the benefits of boosting the air in their greenhouses by a factor of three to about 1,200
ppm. World grain crops are all at a higher level, thanks, in part, to the extra CO2. The Saheel, south of the Sahara Desert is shrinking as plants benefit from the extra CO2 to grow now, where it was impossible to do so before. There are many papers and videos to support this assertion. Agood example is here in the work of Professor Ranga Myneni.
13. Conclusions
This overview has covered many topics and supplied links for in-depth support for the different climate processes. The section on the “Thermal Model” is relatively new and deserves serious consideration. The Radiative Transfer Model has been around for over a century, and I do not believe it can explain the “Missing 33°C”. I would like to see a more open discussion of the two models and their relative merits.
It could be moderated as a podcast, or it could be done as an email thread among the experts cited in this educational note.
Comments, suggestions, and feedback are welcomed. Please send them to gerald.ratzer@mcgill.ca