Innovation Strategy under Uncertainty Why was the Electric Car never a success? a critical analysis by Group 007
Assumptions
Is the focus on the electric car or the battery? Why focus on a battery. Other technologies could emerge in the future. No discussion
Today’s Assignment
Main question is, explain why the electric car has never been successfully developed commercially?
The intuitive answer is, the electric never lived up to customer needs
Rosenberg, 1995
Potential uses Functional requirements unchanged
Complementary innovations Low weight battery storage capacity Sources of power supply
System integration
Rosenberg, 1995 (cont.)
Problemsolving myopia
Environmental friendly transportation concerning the battery technology, let alone the electric car.
Passing ”the needs” test
trajectory of vehicle performance never intersected the trajectory of market needs.
Competing with the past
Existing engine technologies under constant incremental development Traditional car enthusiasm
Rosenberg conclusion
Remains as a complementary analytical tool, providing the overview of uncertainty. Includes stakeholders Answer can be identified from analyzing:
Complementary innovations, ie. the battery Satisfaction of customer needs Competition with the past
Christensen, 1996
Is the electric car a disruptive innovation? (Runes graf nedenunder)
Is there a market for electric cars ?
Christensen, 1996 (cont.)
Strategic aspect
Product creating a simple product Technology development of battery Distribution – convincing sales teams
Organizational context
Christensen conclusion
Assuming the existing electric car technology, the main problem has been to identify the correct niche markets. Establishing the correct organizational context.
Courtney et. al., 1997
Uncertainty Level
Strategic implications
Reserve the right to play Clearly adapters with shaper visions
Portfolio of Actions
Hybrid Level 1+2
Options – balancing big payoffs with minimizing cost.
Courtney et. al. conclusion
Theoretical problem: assuming that technologies are inherently successful. What if the technology is a failure? Difficult to assess why the electric car failed, using Courtney et. al. Big bets are inherently always the right solution.
Stakeholder analysis
The hypercube Model (Afuah, XXXX)
Other factors
Customers Suppliers Complementary innovators Innovator Oilproducers Political interests (Greenpeace etc.)
Summary
Rosenberg is looking for ”bigger batteries”. Christensen is looking for alternative niche markets. Courtney is looking for choosing the right strategy, assuming a technological success.