1 State v. Johnstone: Crimen Injuria Plaintiff: Hon. Patricia de Lille, MP, ID Defendant: Lara Johnstone, HARTSSTARH CT-CAS 1340/7/07 & 17/1384/07 & 14/1198/08 George-CAS 572/02 ::: HC-CPD Appeal A 696-04
crimeninuria.blogspot.com in-gods-name.blogspot.com
18 July 2006 :: Peak Oil_RSA :: Briefing Paper Question to RSA Gov. c/o Minister of Intelligence: Mr. R. Kasrils Is Gross Mismanagement of the nation’s energy policy an impeachable offense? Introduction: Limits to Growth What is Peak Oil? Who Knows What About Peak Oil? How Serious is the Threat of Peak Oil? What about Alternative Sources of Energy? Who is Serious About Peak Oil? What Should South Africans be doing About Peak Oil? Why are so many people who have heard of Peak Oil in denial? Bibliography Who in the South African Government, Media, NGO’s, Corporations Knew What and When About Peak Oil?
Submitted to Plaintiff as Leader of the Independent Democrats c/o & via: Independent Democrats: Information Officer: Secretary General: Mr. Avril Harding (mailed 14/08/06; called to confirm receipt on 24/08/06) [P O Box 751, Capetown, 8000 | Marks Building, Ground Floor, Room M28, Parliament, Plein St., Capetown Tel: (021) 403 3530/403 | Fax: (021) 403 2350 Cell: 083 701 7500]
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
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Who in South African Government, Media, NGO's, Corporations Knew What and When About Peak Oil? by Lara Johnstone, (formerly of PeakOil_RSA) PeakOil_RSA provided the following RSA Gov., Corp., Media, etc. Officials with a copy of 18 JULY 2006 PEAK OIL_RSA BRIEFING PAPER Data CD [Word(P131):3,864KB], by Lara Johnstone MINISTER OF INTELLIGENCE: Mr. Ronald Kasrils (Reg. Mail # RD 853 384 366 ZA) (Minister Kasrils Office forwarded to Communications Officer: Ms. Lorna Daniels to deal with) PRESIDENT OF SOUTH AFRICA: Mr. Thabo Mbeki, c/o & via: Parliamentary Press Gallery Association: Deputy Chairperson: Mr. Willem Jordaan (Registered Mail # RD 853 384 658 ZA on 25 July 2006) MINISTER OF FINANCE: Mr. Trevor Manuel, c/o & via: Parliamentary Press Gallery Association: Deputy Chairperson: Mr. Willem Jordaan (Registered Mail # RD 853 384 658 ZA on 25 July 2006) DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE: Leader: Mr. Tony Leon (Mr. Leon's office forwarded to Portfolio: Environmental Affairs & Tourism: Mr. Rafiik Shah, MP to deal with. Mr. Shah called to request further documentation. I provided Mr. Shah with numerous additional documentaries.) Registered Letter # RD 853 384 644 ZA on 25 July 2006) FORMER PRESIDENT OF SOUTH AFRICA: Mr. Nelson Mandela, c/o & via: Democratic Alliance: Leader: Mr. Tony Leon (Mr. Leon's office forwarded to Former President of South Africa: Mr. Nelson Mandela as requested) (Registered Letter # RD 853 384 644 ZA on 25 July 2006) ARCHBISHOP: Desmond Tutu, c/o & via: Democratic Alliance: Leader: Mr. Tony Leon (Mr. Leon's office forwarded to Archbishop Tutu as requested) (Registered Letter # RD 853 384 644 ZA on 25 July 2006)
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION INSTITUTE (FXI): Executive Director: Ms. Jane Duncan (Insured Mail: # PA 062 116 454 on 25/07/06) PARLIAMENTARY PRESS GALLERY ASSOCIATION: Deputy Chairperson: Mr. Willem Jordaan (Registered Mail # RD 853 384 658 ZA) DIE BURGER: Editor: Mr. Arrie Rossouw; c/o & via: Freedom of Expression Institute (FXI): Executive Director: Ms. Jane Duncan (Insured Mail: # PA 062 116 454 on 25/07/06) BUSINESS DAY: Editor: Mr. Peter Bruce; c/o & via: Freedom of Expression Institute (FXI): Executive Director: Ms. Jane Duncan (Insured Mail: # PA 062 116 454 on 25/07/06) CAPE TIMES: Editor: Mr. Chris Whitfield; c/o & via: Freedom of Expression Institute (FXI): Executive Director: Ms. Jane Duncan (Insured Mail: # PA 062 116 454 on 25/07/06) ENGINEERING NEWS: Assistant News Editor: Mr. Terence Creamer; c/o & via: Freedom of Expression Institute (FXI): Executive Director: Ms. Jane Duncan (Insured Mail: # PA 062 116 454 on 25/07/06) ETV: Head of News: Ms. Deborah Patta; c/o & via: Freedom of Expression Institute (FXI): Executive Director: Ms. Jane Duncan (Insured Mail: # PA 062 116 454 on 25/07/06) FINANCIAL MAIL: Editor: Mr. Barney Mthombothi; c/o & via: Freedom of Expression Institute (FXI): Executive Director: Ms. Jane Duncan (Insured Mail: # PA 062 116 454 on 25/07/06) MAIL & GUARDIAN: Chief Editor: Mr. Ferrial Haffajee; c/o & via: Freedom of Expression Institute (FXI): Executive Director: Ms. Jane Duncan (Insured Mail: # PA 062 116 454 on 25/07/06) RAPPORT: Editor-in-Chief: Mr. Tim du Plessis; c/o & via: Freedom of Expression Institute (FXI): Executive Director: Ms. Jane Duncan (Insured Mail: # PA 062 116 454 on 25/07/06) SABC: Chief Operating Officer: Mr. Solly Mokwetle; c/o & via: Freedom of Expression Institute (FXI): Executive Director: Ms. Jane Duncan (Insured Mail: # PA 062 116 454 on 25/07/06) SOWETAN: Editor-in-Chief: Mr. Thabo Leshilo; c/o & via: Freedom of Expression Institute
(FXI): Executive Director: Ms. Jane Duncan (Insured Mail: # PA 062 116 454 on 25/07/06)
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SUNDAY TIMES: Editor-in-Chief: Mr. Mondi Makhanya; c/o & via: Freedom of Expression Institute (FXI): Executive Director: Ms. Jane Duncan (Insured Mail: # PA 062 116 454 on 25/07/06) PeakOil_RSA provided the following RSA Gov., Corp., Media, etc. Officials with a DVD copy of DENIAL STOPS HERE: From 9/11 to Peak Oil and Beyond (www.fromthewilderness.com) NATIONAL GOV.: EXEC. JUDIC. & LEG.: MINISTER OF INTELLIGENCE: Mr. Ronald Kasrils (Reg. Mail # RD 853 384 366 ZA) (Minister's Office forwarded to Communications Officer: Ms. Lorna Daniels to deal with. Ms. Lorna Daniel repeatedly telephonically informed me she would get back to me in writing. As of 09-02-27, I have not heard from Ms. Daniels on behalf of the Minister of Intelligence) PRESIDENT OF SOUTH AFRICA: Mr. Thabo Mbeki, c/o & via: Parliamentary Press Gallery Association: Deputy Chairperson: Mr. Willem Jordaan (Registered Mail # RD 853 384 658 ZA) MINISTER OF FINANCE: Mr. Trevor Manuel, c/o & via: Parliamentary Press Gallery Association: Deputy Chairperson: Mr. Willem Jordaan (Registered Mail # RD 853 384 658 ZA) CENTRAL ENERGY FUND (CEF): Information Officer: Mr. Mputumi Damane (mailed 08/08/06) CONSTITUTIONAL COURT: Information Officer: The Honorable Justice Pius Langa (mailed 08/08/06) SA RESERVE BANK: Information Officer: Mr. Tito Mboweni (mailed 08/08/06; mailed a second DVD copy on 14/08/06) CONSTITUTIONAL COURT: Justice Arthur Chaskalson (mailed 14/08/06) NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY (NIA): Information Officer: Mr. Manala Manzini (mailed 14/08/06) NATIONAL PROSECUTING AUTHORITY (NPA): Information Officer: Mr. Lwazi Mboyi (mailed 01/09/06)
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT: FREE STATE: Information Officer: Dr. Muzamini Charles Nwaila (mailed 08/08/06) GAUTENG: Information Officer: Mr. Mogopodi Mokoena (mailed 08/08/06) MPUMALANGA: Information Officer: Mr. Khaya Ngema (mailed 08/08/06) NORTHERN CAPE: Information Officer: Dr. Michael Hendry Hendriks (mailed 08/08/06) WESTERN CAPE: Information Officer: Dr. Gilbert Lawrence (mailed 08/08/06) WESTERN CAPE: Dept. of Agriculture: Economist: Mr. Wessel Lemmer (mailed 08/08/06) LOCAL GOVERNMENT: GEORGE: Local Municipality: Director of Finance: Mr. Fourie (mailed 01/08/06) KNYSNA: Local Municipality: Director of Finance: Mr. Grant Easton (mailed 01/08/06) MOSSELBAY: Local Municipality: Director of Finance: Mr. Herman Botha (mailed 01/08/06) CITY OF CAPE TOWN: Metro Municipality: Executive Mayor: Ms. Helen Zille (mailed 08/08/06) POLITICAL PARTIES & RENOWNED SOUTH AFRICAN LEADERS: DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE: Leader: Mr. Tony Leon (forwarded to Portfolio: Environmental Affairs & Tourism: Mr. Rafiik Shah, MP) (Registered Letter # RD 853 384 644 ZA) FORMER PRESIDENT OF SOUTH AFRICA: Mr. Nelson Mandela, c/o & via: Democratic Alliance: Leader: Mr. Tony Leon (forwarded to Portfolio: Environmental Affairs & Tourism: Mr. Rafiik Shah, MP) (Registered Letter # RD 853 384 644 ZA) ARCHBISHOP: Desmond Tutu, c/o & via: Democratic Alliance: Leader: Mr. Tony Leon (forwarded to Portfolio: Environmental Affairs & Tourism: Mr. Rafiik Shah, MP) (Registered Letter # RD 853 384 644 ZA) COSATU: General Secretary: Mr. Zwelinzima Vavi (mailed 14/08/06)
INDEPENDENT DEMOCRATS: Secretary General: Mr. Avril Harding (mailed 14/08/06)
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NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANISATIONS / CORPORATIONS: FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION INSTITUTE (FXI): Executive Director: Ms. Jane Duncan (Insured Mail: # PA 062 116 454 on 25/07/06) FANCOURT: Golfing Estate, George: Mr. Plattner (via Mr. Clive Huskison: Director of Finances) (Hand Delivered on 14/08/06) GEORGE BUSINESS CHAMBER: General Manager: Ms. Colleen Till (Hand Delivered 14/08/06) AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH COUNCIL: Information Officer: Dr. Nthoana TauMzamane (mailed 08/08/06) FINANCIAL SERVICES BOARD: Information Officer: Mr. Russel Michaels (mailed 08/08/06) FINANCIAL & FISCAL COMMISSION: Information Officer: Dr. Bethuel Setai (mailed 08/08/06) HUMAN SCIENCES RESEARCH COUNCIL: Information Officer: Dr. Olive Shisana (mailed 08/08/06) LAND BANK & AGRICULTURAL BANK OF SA: Information Officer: Mr. Alan Mukoki (mailed 08/08/06) SOUTH AFRICAN LOCAL GOVERNMENT ASSOCIATION (SALGA): Information Officer: Dr. Makhozi Khoza (mailed 08/08/06) ETHANOL AFRICA: Ms. Annelie Coleman (mailed 08/08/06) MUSLIM JUDICAL COUNCIL (mailed 14/08/06) HIV POSITIVE MUSLIMS: Information Officer (mailed 10/08/06) SOUTH AFRICAN NGO NETWORK (SANGONET): Executive Director: Mr. David Barnard (mailed 14/08/06) INSTITUTE FOR FUTURE RESEARCH: Director: Prof. Andre Roux (mailed 01/09/06) COUNCIL FOR SCIENTIFIC & INDUSTRIAL RESEARCH (CSIR): External Comm & Media Manager: Ms. Hilda van Rooyen (mailed 01/09/06)
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES (ISS): Executive Director: Dr. Jacky Cilliers (mailed 01/09/06) SOUTH AFRICAN NGO COALITION (SANGOCO): Communications Co-ordinator: Mr. Hassan Lorgat (mailed 01/09/06) UCT: SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS: Mr. Jeremy Wakeford (mailed on 14/08/06) ORGANIC FARMING: Ms. Helen Duigan (mailed 08/08/06; second copy on 14/08/06) MEDIA: PARLIAMENTARY PRESS GALLERY ASSOCIATION: Deputy Chairperson: Mr. Willem Jordaan (Registered Mail # RD 853 384 658 ZA) DIE BURGER: Editor: Mr. Arrie Rossouw; c/o & via: Freedom of Expression Institute (FXI): Executive Director: Ms. Jane Duncan (Insured Mail: # PA 062 116 454 on 25/07/06) BUSINESS DAY: Editor: Mr. Peter Bruce; c/o & via: Freedom of Expression Institute (FXI): Executive Director: Ms. Jane Duncan (Insured Mail: # PA 062 116 454 on 25/07/06) CAPE TIMES: Editor: Mr. Chris Whitfield; c/o & via: Freedom of Expression Institute (FXI): Executive Director: Ms. Jane Duncan (Insured Mail: # PA 062 116 454 on 25/07/06) ENGINEERING NEWS: Assistant News Editor: Mr. Terence Creamer; c/o & via: Freedom of Expression Institute (FXI): Executive Director: Ms. Jane Duncan (Insured Mail: # PA 062 116 454 on 25/07/06) ETV: Head of News: Ms. Deborah Patta; c/o & via: Freedom of Expression Institute (FXI): Executive Director: Ms. Jane Duncan (Insured Mail: # PA 062 116 454 on 25/07/06) FINANCIAL MAIL: Editor: Mr. Barney Mthombothi; c/o & via: Freedom of Expression Institute (FXI): Executive Director: Ms. Jane Duncan (Insured Mail: # PA 062 116 454 on 25/07/06) MAIL & GUARDIAN: Chief Editor: Mr. Ferrial Haffajee; c/o & via: Freedom of Expression Institute (FXI): Executive Director: Ms. Jane Duncan (Insured Mail: # PA 062 116 454 on 25/07/06)
RAPPORT: Editor-in-Chief: Mr. Tim du Plessis; c/o & via: Freedom of Expression Institute (FXI): Executive Director: Ms. Jane Duncan (Insured Mail: # PA 062 116 454 on 25/07/06)
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SABC: Chief Operating Officer: Mr. Solly Mokwetle; c/o & via: Freedom of Expression Institute (FXI): Executive Director: Ms. Jane Duncan (Insured Mail: # PA 062 116 454 on 25/07/06) SOWETAN: Editor-in-Chief: Mr. Thabo Leshilo; c/o & via: Freedom of Expression Institute (FXI): Executive Director: Ms. Jane Duncan (Insured Mail: # PA 062 116 454 on 25/07/06) SUNDAY TIMES: Editor-in-Chief: Mr. Mondi Makhanya; c/o & via: Freedom of Expression Institute (FXI): Executive Director: Ms. Jane Duncan (Insured Mail: # PA 062 116 454 on 25/07/06) GEORGE HERALD: Editor (via Journalist Ms. A. de Beer) (Hand Delivered: 14/08/06) FARMERS WEEKLY: Editor: (mailed 08/08/06) NOSEWEEK: Editor: Martin Weltz (mailed 14/08/06) ISLAM RADIO: Station Manager: Mr. Heider Dhorat (30/08/06) CARTE BLANCHE: Liaison: Mr. Billie O'Hara (mailed 30/08/06) OVERVAAL STEREO: Radio Journalist: Mr. Johan Malan (mailed 30/08/06) LOWVELDER: Editor: Mr. Bongani Hlatshwayo (mailed 30/08/06) LAUDIUM SUN: Editor: Mr. Nazeer Noormohamed (mailed 30/08/06) MUSLIM VIEWS: Editor: Mr. Farid Sayed (mailed 30/08/06) 702 TALK RADIO: Station Manager: Ms. Pheladi Gwangwa (mailed 30/08/06) ETV: Head of News: Ms. Debora Patta (mailed (** second time) 30/08/06) BUSINESS LEADERSHIP SA: Executive Director: Mr. Michael Spicer (mailed 01/09/06) MAVERICK BUSINESS MAGAZINE: The Editor: "Tito & The Economists" (mailed 08/08/06; 2nd copy on 14/08/06)
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
‘In Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update, Dennis Meadows reports that humanity is no longer just in danger of colliding against its limits; it's on the brink of actually overshooting those limits, with potentially disastrous consequences. In other words, we are not only reaching peaks in production of essential resources such as energy and food, we may be on the verge of permanently destroying our ability to produce those resources.’ – Martin Weiss, 19 June 2006, Money and Markets:
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Free Market News
PeakOil_RSA
18 July 2006
7 Rigelou Court, 84 Meade St. George, 6529 Tel: (044) 874 5121 || Cell: (072) 785 0080
MR. R. KASRILS
MINISTER OF INTELLIGENCE P. O. BOX 56450 ARCADIA, 0007 (Reg Letter: #: RD 853 384 366 ZA) Tel: (012) 338 1800 | Fax: (012) 323 0718
Ref: 18 July 2006 PeakOil_RSA Briefing Paper Is gross mismanagement of the nation's energy policy an impeachable offense?
Dear Honorable Minister, CC: C/O & VIA: PARLIAMENTARY PRESS GALLERY ASSOCIATION: Chairperson: Mr. Jeremy Michaels: PRESIDENT OF SOUTH AFRICA: Mr. Thabo Mbeki; MINISTER OF FINANCE: Mr. Trevor Manuel; (Reg Letter: #: RD 853 384 658 ZA) C/O & VIA: LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION: Mr. Tony Leon: FORMER PRESIDENT: Mr. Nelson Mandela; TRUTH & RECONCILIATION COMMISSION: Archbishop Desmond Tutu (Reg Letter: #: RD 853 384 644 ZA). C/O & VIA: FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION INSTITUTE: Executive Director: Ms. Jane Duncan: DIE BURGER EDITOR: Mr. Arrie Rossouw; BUSINESS DAY EDITOR: Mr. Peter Bruce; CAPE TIMES EDITOR: Mr. Chris Whitfield; ENGINEERING NEWS ASSISTANT NEWS EDITOR: Mr. Terence Creamer; ETV HEAD OF NEWS: Ms. Deborah Patta; FINANCIAL MAIL EDITOR: Mr. Barney Mthombothi; MAIL & GUARDIAN: Chief Editor: Ms. Ferial Haffajee; RAPPORT EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Mr Tim du Plessis; SABC CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER: Mr. Solly Mokwetle; SOWETAN EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Mr. Thabo Leshilo; SUNDAY TIMES EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Mr. Mondli Makhanya (Insured Letter: #: PA 062 116 454 ZA)
RE: Attached DVD & CD titled Peak Oil_RSA_BP: DVD/CD_Documentary_Data The DVD contains a documentary by From the Wilderness Publications, titled Denial Stops Here: From 9/11 to Peak Oil and Beyond. Please ensure whomever addresses my request watches it attentively. The CD contains a document titled, INDEX TO Peak Oil_RSA Briefing Paper DATA. If you open this document you will find it linked to all the other documents on the CD. Of specific contextual importance to yourself is document # 02: “CD: Letter to Minister of Intelligence, Ronnie Kasrils, Submittal of PeakOil_RSA_Briefing Paper,” referenced as above, but which is more in depth, with appropriate footnotes etc., than this cover letter. It is titled, RE: (I) Submittal of PeakOil_RSA Briefing Paper, & (II) Official Request the Ministry of Intelligence Evaluate South Africa’s current policy position on:-- (1) Peak Oil; (2) Implementation of Mitigation Measures for Peak Oil; & (3) Option of Adopting The Oil Depletion Protocol as a mitigation measure to educate the public and top-level decision-makers on the issue of Peak Oil and mitigation measures required to deal with Peak Oil. Respectfully,
PeakOil_RSA Listserve Moderator
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
7 ‘In Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update, Dennis Meadows reports that humanity is no longer just in danger of
colliding against its limits; it's on the brink of actually overshooting those limits, with potentially disastrous consequences. In other words, we are not only reaching peaks in production of essential resources such as energy and food, we may be on the verge of permanently destroying our ability to produce those resources.’ – Martin Weiss, 19 June 2006, Money and Markets: Free Market News
PeakOil_RSA
18 July 2006
7 Rigelou Court, 84 Meade St. George, 6529 Tel: (044) 874 5121 || Cell: (072) 785 0080
MR. R. KASRILS
MINISTER OF INTELLIGENCE P. O. BOX 56450 ARCADIA, 0007 Tel: (012) 338 1800 Fax: (012) 323 0718
Ref:
18 July 2006 PeakOil_RSA Briefing Paper Is gross mismanagement of the nation's energy policy an impeachable offense?
Dear Minister, CC: Other Interested Parties1 & Media2 RE: (I) Submittal of PeakOil_RSA Briefing Paper, & (II) Official Request the Ministry of Intelligence Evaluate South Africa’s current policy position on:-- (1) Peak Oil; (2) Implementation of Mitigation Measures for Peak Oil; & (3) Option of Adopting The Oil Depletion Protocol as a mitigation measure to educate the public and top-level decisionmakers on the issue of Peak Oil and mitigation measures required to deal with Peak Oil. Arguably your position and hopefully struggle integrity qualifies you as: (a) intellectually, the individual in South Africa with access to the greatest amount of accurate information on matters of public and classified intelligence and their relationship to the geo-political landscape; (b) psycho-emotionally, the individual charged with analyzing the information/intelligence first, talking later and having the courage and conviction in briefing individuals such as the President, Members of Parliament and the Cabinet, etc., never to bend reality to fit a political policy (the alleged ‘cardinal sin’ in an ethical honorable intelligence gathering organization, as no doubt you are aware). Furthermore, because (a) the information contained in this Briefing Paper relates to an imminent financial / economic / transportation / agricultural food production / crime & violence / national security threat that would make the WTC appear minor in comparison, and (b) an intelligence failure on the part of your ministry, no matter how minor on this issue, is NOT AN OPTION; this entire package of information is being copied to
C/O & VIA: PARLIAMENTARY PRESS GALLERY ASSOCIATION: Chairperson: Mr. Jeremy Michaels: PRESIDENT OF SOUTH AFRICA: Mr. Thabo Mbeki; MINISTER OF FINANCE: Mr. Trevor Manuel; C/O & VIA: LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION: Mr. Tony Leon: FORMER PRESIDENT: Mr. Nelson Mandela; TRUTH & RECONCILIATION COMMISSION: Archbishop Desmond Tutu. 2 C/O & VIA: FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION INSTITUTE: Executive Director: Ms. Jane Duncan: DIE BURGER EDITOR: Mr. Arrie Rossouw; BUSINESS DAY EDITOR: Mr. Peter Bruce; CAPE TIMES EDITOR: Mr. Chris Whitfield; ENGINEERING NEWS ASSISTANT NEWS EDITOR: Mr. Terence Creamer; ETV HEAD OF NEWS: Ms. Deborah Patta; FINANCIAL MAIL EDITOR: Mr. Barney Mthombothi; MAIL & GUARDIAN: Chief Editor: Ms. Ferial Haffajee; RAPPORT EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Mr Tim du Plessis; SABC CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER: Mr. Solly Mokwetle; SOWETAN EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Mr. Thabo Leshilo; SUNDAY TIMES EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Mr. Mondli Makhanya 1
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
8 the aforementioned CC’d individuals, so as to (I) hold your office accountable, and (II) provide you with a support network to implement the necessary mitigation measures required. Any aforementioned CC’d individuals honest enough to consider themselves suspicious skeptic’s on the reality of Peak Oil may first wish to acquaint themselves with the following documentation prior to delving into the PeakOil_RSA Briefing Paper, namely:-Please watch the BBC Documentary: War for Oil, via YouTube.com3 Read the transcript of Congressman Roscoe Bartlett’s (R,MD) Peak Oil presentations4 to the United States Congress. Read Former US Secretary of Defense (Nixon & Ford), former CIA Director (Nixon) and former Energy Secretary (Carter) Mr. James R. Schlesinger’s November, 2005 testimony5 before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Listen to Former CIA Director, James Woolsey’s testimony6 before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, where both the U.S. Congress and the Senate recognized Peak Oil. The hearing was titled “The High Costs of Crude: The New Currency of Foreign Policy.” MIN OF INTEL_PEAKOIL_RSA_BRIEFING PAPER: Herewith submitted to you for your urgent and immediate enquiry and investigation in this matter:-DVD Documentary: Denial Stops Here: From 911 to Peak Oil & Beyond by Mr. Michael C. Ruppert, the editor and publisher of From the Wilderness7 (FTW) Publications CD Data File: Denial Stops Here.. Evidentiary Data File, containing an INDEX file, linked to all the following data (and more):-This letter, with all active links to related sites, some copied to Favourites folder on the CD included. Speeches made by Mr. Mathew Simmons: Mr. Simmons is the author of Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy, and one of President Bush’s energy advisors. Mr. Simmons investment bank, Simmons and Company International, is considered the most reputable and reliable energy investment bank in the world. Lastly Mr. Simmons was a consultant to Vice President Cheney’s National Energy Policy Development Group (NEPDG), that met in secret in 2001, prior to 911, which twice went to the U.S. Supreme Court to prevent publication of it’s proceedings and findings. Mr. Simmons has made dozens of speeches8 around the world on the issue of Peak Oil. Original formerly classified US Gov. Classified Doc’s: U.S. National Energy Policy Development Group documents released to Judicial Watch, in case Judicial Watch, Inc. v. Nat’l Energy Policy Dev. Group, et al: 3
Basically it explains that the Bush administration invaded Iraq because Peak Oil is of serious concern to them, and they consequently see the war in Iraq as "a fight for (U.S.) survival." It is divided into 3 parts. War for Oil: Part I: (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aar6EZvvdW4&search=war%20for%20oil); Part II (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrCd8Yib2Zc&search=war%20for%20oil); III (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyU2gwQR1Qo&search=war%20for%20oil) 4 http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/FloorOfTheHouseAgain.html 5 Read transcript at http://www.senate.gov/~foreign/testimony/2005/SchlesingerTestimony051116.pdf 6 Listen to hearing at: http://foreign.senate.gov/archives/2005/archive111605.ram 7 FTW Subscribers include 45 members of US Congress, intelligence committee of Congress & Senate, professors at over 40 universities around the world, etc. 8 A list of all Mr. Simmons speeches can be found at: http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches with titles, such as: The Energy Crisis Has Arrived Energy Conversation Series – before the Department of Defense, June 20, 2006, Tight Oil Supplies Could The Hydrocarbon Age Be Entering The Twilight Era Energy In 2006: A Rough Ride Ahead Is Energy’s Future Sustainable? “Peak Oil” and Energy Politic Harvard University, Today’s Energy Reality: “We Are In A Deep Hole” Oil and Gas Conference, Ever Increasing Energy Use: Are We Facing Limits To Growth? Are We Entering The 21st Century’s First Crisis: Peak Oil? An Energy Tsunami Ahead Depletion And Peak Oil A Serious Issue Or An Over Exaggerated Fear? See also Bibliography International Geologists… Energy Investment Advisors Simmons & Simmons & Co. International
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
9 Press Release: Judicial Watch, Inc. v. Nat’l Energy Policy Dev. Group, et al. Press Release: COURT CONSIDERS DISCOVERY IN CHENEY ENERGY TASK FORCE CASE Press Release: CHENEY ENERGY TASK FORCE DOCUMENTS OBTAINED UNDER THE FREEDOM OF INFORMATION ACT BY JUDICIAL WATCH AVAILABLE FOR PRESS INSPECTION Press Release: CHENEY ENERGY TASK FORCE DOCUMENTS FEATURE MAP OF IRAQI OILFIELDS: Commerce & State Department Reports to Task Force Detail Oilfield & Gas Projects, Contracts & Exploration: Saudi Arabian & UAE Oil Facilities Profiled As Well Overview: Maps & Charts of Iraqi Oil Fields MAPS: Iraqi Oil Map Foreign Suitors for Iraqi Oilfield Contracts (Part I) Foreign Suitors for Iraqi Oilfield Contracts (Part 2) Map: United Arab Emirates Oil Map United Arab Emirates: Major Oil & Natural Gas Development Projects Saudi Arabia Oil Map Saudi Arabia: Major Oil & Natural Gas Development Projects
‘Big Picture’ FTW news articles9 to substantiate various key points made by Mr. Ruppert in the Denial… DVD Richard Heinberg Peak Oil Museletters10 Finally, within the aforementioned context, consider whether:-South Africa’s current ‘plan’ for dealing with Peak Oil is (i) visionary, (ii) uniting the people cooperatively within a psychological context that is higher than their own selfish needs; (iii) pragmatic, (iv) naïve, (v) irrational, (vi) negligent and/or (vii) criminal?, and The PeakOil_RSA request to Parliament and the mainstream media, in the press release dated 18 July 2006, was: (i) visionary, (ii) would unite South Africa cooperatively within a psychological context that is higher than their own selfish needs; (iii) pragmatic; (iv) naïve, (v) irrational, (vi) negligent and/or (vii) criminal? Please be so kind as to analyze the information/intelligence first, prior to briefing the relevant individuals and media, always remembering never to bend reality to fit any political policy. I look forward to hearing your conclusions, even if they are contrary to my own. I simply hope that if that is the case, you are willing to take full responsibility for the consequences of your decisions, and their effects on all South Africans, should you be proven incorrect. Respectfully,
PeakOil_RSA Moderator
IN YOUR FACE: -- Connections between Dick Cheney's Energy Task Force (NEPDG), 9/11 and Peak Oil “On the Table”; -- July '04 Supreme Court Ruling on Secrecy, Task Force Documents Obtained through FOIA Suit on Collision Course as Cheney “Duck Hunts” with Scalia; -- The Reason Why Activists of All Stripes are Ineffective; GLOBALCORP: I am not a Politician. The fire is no longer on the way. It has Begun. An Important Announcement by Michael C. Ruppert; THE PARADIGM IS THE ENEMY: The State of the Peak Oil Movement at the Cusp of Collapse. A Speech by Michael C. Ruppert for the Local Solutions to the Energy Dilemma Conference April 27-29, 2006, New York City; etc. 10 Tools with a Life of Their Own, includes presentation and discussion of "The Oil Depletion Protocol"; How to Avoid Oil Wars, Terrorism, and Economic Collapse, includes presentation and discussion of "The Oil Depletion Protocol"; Threats of Peak Oil to the Global Food Supply, A paper presented at the FEASTA Conference: "What Will We Eat as the Oil Runs Out?", June 23-25, 2005, Dublin Ireland; Meditations on Collapse: A review of Jared Diamond's Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed.; and Behold Caesar, George W Bush, a failed emperor, threatens world stability. 9
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
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18 July 2006_PeakOil_RSA_Briefing Paper
INTRODUCTION: LIMITS TO GROWTH 18 July 2006 Dear Reader, At the beginning of the chapter Who Knows What About Peak Oil, you will find: Civilization – the modern, petroleum based civilization that Dick Cheney refers to as “The American Way of Life” -- is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. This is the scientific conclusion of some of the bestpaid, most widely respected geologists, 11 energy advisors and oil experts,12 scientists & scientific bodies,13 and investment bankers and banks,14 in the world. These rational, professional, conservative individuals are making and recommending serious preparations for the global phenomenon known as global Peak Oil.
Confronting the reality that ‘civilisation is coming to an end soon’ may sound at first like the end of your world, to you. But it needn’t be. It may be the end of a world your consciousness currently defines as the only possible world you may wish to live in, but with a little consciousness revolution, you may find at the end of the revolution in your thinking, that, saying goodbye to your experience of The American Way of Life may not be nearly as problematic as you thought it would be. In fact for every door you may find closing to such a way of life, others are opening to a new revolutionary way of living, being, relating and evolving. In Facing the Limits to Growth,15 Meadows ends with: The Next Revolution: Sustainability See Bibliography International Geologists, Scientific Bodies, Energy Advisors/Investors Association for Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO) See Bibliography Intl Geologists, Scientific Bodies, Energy Advisors/Investors Oil Depletion Analysis Center See Bibliography Intl Geologists, Scientific Bodies,….. M. King Hubbert Center For Petroleum Supply Studies See Bibliography Intl Geologists, Scientific Bodies, ….. Dr. Colin Campbell See Bibliography Intl Geologists, Scientific Bodies, ….. Professor Kjell Aleklett, Ph.D. 12 See Bibliography Intl Geologists, Scientific Bodies, …… Dr. Robert L. Hirsch, Senior Energy Advisor, SAIC, See Bibliography Intl Geologists, Scientific Bodies, …… Hirsch Report See Bibliography Intl Geologists, Scientific Bodies, …… Ken Deffeyes, Princeton Univ. Emeritus Professor & Oil Analyst See Bibliography Intl Geologists, Scientific Bodies, … A.S. Bakhtiari, Senior Advisor to the National Iranian Oil Company 13 See Bibliography Intl Geologists, Scientific Bodies, …… Scientists…. David Goodstein, California Institute of Technology See Bibliography Intl Geologists, Scientific Bodies, …… Scientists & Scientific Bodies Swedish National Academy of Sciences 14 See Bibliography Intl Geologists, Scientific Bodies, Energy Advisors/Investors Mathew Simmons & Simmons International See Bibliography Intl Banks & Financial Corporate Bodies Bank for International Settlements See Bibliography South Africa ABSA Bank (RSA) 11
15
Facing the Limits to Growth, by Donella H. Meadows and Jorgen Randers, by AlterNet, 17 Jun 2004. * JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
11 It is as impossible now for anyone to describe the world that could evolve from a sustainability revolution as it would have been for the farmers of 6000 BC to foresee the corn and soybean fields of modern Iowa, or for an English coal miner of AD 1800 to imagine an automated Toyota assembly line. Like the other great revolutions, the coming sustainability revolution will also change the face of the land and the foundations of human identities, institutions, and cultures… Of course no one knows how to bring about such a revolution. There is not a checklist: "To accomplish a global paradigm shift, follow these 20 steps." Like the great revolutions that came before, this one can't be planned or dictated. It won't follow a list of fiats from government or a proclamation from computer modellers. The sustainability revolution will be organic. It will arise from the visions, insights, experiments, and actions of billions of people. The burden of making it happen is not on the shoulders of any one person or group. No one will get the credit, but everyone can contribute. Our systems training and our own work in the world have affirmed for us two properties of complex systems germane to the sort of profound revolution we are discussing here. First, information is the key to transformation. That does not necessarily mean more information, better statistics, bigger databases, or the World Wide Web, though all of these may play a part. It means relevant, compelling, powerful, timely, accurate information flowing in new ways to new recipients, carrying new content, suggesting new rules and goals (rules and goals that are themselves information). When its information flows are changed, any system will behave differently. .. Second, systems strongly resist changes in their information flows, especially in their rules and goals. It is not surprising that those who benefit from the current system actively oppose such revision. Entrenched political, economic, and religious cliques can constrain almost entirely the attempts of an individual or small group to operate by different rules or to attain goals different from those sanctioned by the system. Innovators can be ignored, marginalized, ridiculed, denied promotions or resources or public voices. They can be literally or figuratively snuffed out. Only innovators, however -- by perceiving the need for new information, rules, and goals, communicating about them, and trying them out -- can make the changes that transform systems. This important point is expressed clearly in a quote that is widely attributed to Margaret Mead, "Never deny the power of a small group of committed individuals to change the world. Indeed that is the only thing that ever has." We have learned the hard way that it is difficult to live a life of material moderation within a system that expects, exhorts, and rewards consumption. But one can move a long way in the direction of moderation. It is not easy to use energy efficiently in an economy that produces energy inefficient products. But one can search out, or if necessary invent, more efficient ways of doing things, and in the process make those ways more accessible to others. Above all, it is difficult to put forth new information in a system that is structured to hear only old information. Just try, sometime, to question in public the value of more growth, or even to make a distinction between growth and development, and you will see what we mean. It takes courage and clarity to challenge an established system. But it can be done.
I sincerely hope that any reader with a serious interest in the concept of sustainability will be willing to set aside your beliefs, and in the spirit of Socratic enquiry, will affirm your beliefs as true, by verifying whether the foundation upon which they rest is in fact on solid rock or not. Are you willing to ask yourself questions such as: Is a fundamental premise our ‘Civilisation’ relies upon for it’s existence: ‘Cheap Energy’? Are there any ideas related to the foundations upon which our ‘Cheap Energy’ civilisation exists, which we consider true not based upon our enquiry into their essence, but purely due to the fact that millions of others consensually validate our beliefs? * JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
12 If some of the concepts you believe in related to our Cheap Energy Civilisation are in fact based on error, would the fact that millions of people share the same error in thinking make the error true? Were there many who erroneously thought the earth was flat? How many of you (black and white) thought (and some still do) that white people were superior to blacks? Were you correct? If not, did it require you to do some self-examination, and critically examine the foundational assumptions upon which the ‘superiority’ theory existed, both in the social system, and within you, in your own subconscious thinking and behaviour, as to how your moment to moment unconscious thinking, and behaviour affirmed a system based on erroneous thinking? Was the journey of self-discovery, of one-by-one breaking down the pillars of erroneous ‘superiority’ conscious and subconscious thinking and behaviour, worth the effort? The Peak Oil journey is sometimes a little like a rollercoaster, at times it takes you to realities, which I can guarantee you, you will not want to confront about our civilisation, about your part in it, about how your unconscious action and silence within the ‘system’ is destructive not only to your own psyche and emotional wellbeing, but to our ecological Because as long as you keep growing, you keep future. changing—and a person who is changing is Those brave enough to stand their ground, look unpredictable, impossible to pigeon-hole and themselves in the mirror, admit their fear, will find a difficult to control. The growing person is not sense of connection with the world, with nature, with an easy target for those guys in the slick suits who want you to turn over your soul to Christ, the noticing of your momentary actions. You will your heart to America; your butt to Seattle First experience at a deeper level the concept of ‘cause and National Bank and your armpits to new extra effect’ and know that they are symbiotic twins. crispy Right Guard. You will know that it is impossible to attempt to live No, the growing person is not an ideal within a system which greedily and voraciously without consumer, which means, in more realistic terms, conscience annihilates the planet’s finite resources, he or she is not an easy slave. Worse yet, if he and not think that there are going to be any or she continues to grow, grows far enough and long enough, he or she may get too close to consequences (effects) for such behaviour. the universal mysteries, the nature of which the You will realise that you have two options: Navy and the Dutch Reform Church do not encourage us to ponder. The growing person is One: You can continue to remain in denial, for as an uncomfortable reminder of the greater long as possible, knowing there a few billion who share human potential that each of us might realize if your illusion that all is well on the ‘economic growth is we had the guts. good for us’ / ‘infinite growth is possible on a finite -- Tom Robbins, in Radical Honesty -planet’ front. Give this Briefing Paper, to your child, they may be more openminded, and watch out for that round that’s marked ‘TO WHOM IT MAY CONCERN’. 16 As they used to say in Vietnam :
‘Sympathy for the Devil' by Kent Anderson, about Hanson, a former U.S. Special Forces Sgt. who served in Vietnam. 16
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
13 It’s not the round with your name on it you gotta watch out for, it’s the one that’s addressed ‘TO WHOM IT MAY CONCERN’ that was the phrase that contained the two ways of looking at life and death in Vietnam.
Two: You can trade your ‘economic growth’ illusion in for a ‘personal growth’ reality journey of selfawareness and self-discovery. You can find out that who you are is not who or what you own physically, materially, psychologically, emotionally or any otherwise. Who you are is your inner courage inside of you to be true to yourself. To venture into the biggest mystery there is: yourself, and your perception of your relationship to the universe. Welcome to the psycho-emotion adventure of Peak Oil. Enjoy the ride on this rollercoaster through your subconscious thinking of what is ‘real’ and ‘true’ and who you thought you were, and find with glee you are no longer. No longer a slave to the system. You are free from the system which is too carefully ordered, too strictly organized, too expertly managed, thoroughly programmed and carefully planned, in which too few control too many. Be your own authority, lead yourself. Learn the ways and means of the Ancient yogi masters, Pied Piper, cloud walkers, and medicine men. Get in harmony with nature. Listen to the loony rhythms of your blood. Look for beauty and poetry in everything in life. Let there be no moon that does not know you, no spring that does not lick you with its tongues. Refuse to play it safe, for it is from the wavering edge of risk that the sweetest honey of freedom drips. Live dangerously, live lovingly. Believe in magic. Nourish your imagination. Use your head, even if it means going out of your mind. Learn, like the lemon and the tomato learned, the laws of the sun. Become aware, like the jungle became aware, of your own perfume.17
Welcome to the Journey Lara Johnstone PeakOil_RSA Listserv Moderator
17
Tom Robbins as quoted in Practicing Radical Honesty, by Brad Blanton Ph.D.
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
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18 July 2006_PeakOil_RSA_Briefing Paper
OVERVIEW Briefly: My efforts to inform the South African people / government / media related to the conundrun called Peak Oil, and it’s related contextual issues, started in March 2002, and have resulted in me being (a) banned from entering Capetown Parliament Buildings, due to a false allegation by individuals in the Ministry of Intelligence that I made a bomb threat (for which I was never charged), (b) being charged with a bomb-threat in George, (c) being arrested without warrant, and refused access to a court, and transported directly to Lentegeur Hospital, for alleged ‘observation’, (d) the Director of Public Prosecutions doing their damn best to have me certified as insane in a mental institution indefinitely (they failed, the Magistrate ruled there was no evidence whatsoever of any illusions or otherwise), (e) spent 14 months in George Womens’ Prison, after I finally informed the court of the truth of my opinions, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. This is my last effort. As Michael Ruppert says in Globalcorp: The Militarisation of Oil: We must all do what we must do and do it now. My conscience is clear that I have done all that is possible to warn. When a tsunami is coming there is a point at which one must stop trying to warn the indifferent and just get out of the way and help others who are also trying to get out of the way. …In order to do that, other bridges must be abandoned.
There is much in this Briefing Paper, that could have been said more eloquently, and that could have been edited a few more times, with plenty more information which I simply just could not get in, with the time I have at hand. Hopefully, however the information that is here, will be enough to provide a big picture view, for anyone intellectually fair, tolerant and honest about their own prejudices. It is my opinion, based on the evidence for the imminence of Peak Oil (in my opinion already arrived, but let’s for argument’s sake say within 10 years), that South Africa’s executive and legislative bodies are grossly mismanaging South Africa’s energy policy and that they should be impeached therefore. The problem being that it does not appear as if any other political party has done any serious enquiry into the issue of Peak Oil, and it’s financial, agricultural, population etc. ramifications and who are willing to confront reality and speak up about what needs to be done, and thereafter put their money where their mouths are and do what needs to be done. And in this state of affairs, while our country heads directly towards the iceberg, the captain and crew are debating the niceties about whether our esteemed former Vice President’s sexually predatorial patriarchal behaviour was ‘rape’ or not. The majority of the passenger citizens are blind drunk in the Titanic’s bars, consuming themselves to debt-driven oblivion – thanks to none other than “Proudly South African” advice to SHOP TILL UNEMPLOYMENT DROPS – and will undoubtedly not have the
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
15 faintest clue when they finally get not slapped in the face with the reality of Peak Oil, but more to the point, hit between the legs by a baseball bat, with the reality. Since my return from America in March 2002, I have come to the conclusion that the majority of ‘Proudly South African’ ‘Mandela is my Hero’ Worship and similar is quite simply allot of hot air and rhetoric. It is not sincere. It is arsenic casuistry, and so fake at times I am revolted as if I have just walked into an Agent Orange haze in the Vietnam Jungle. Steve Biko’s words as to the commitment of the ‘white liberals’ is as true as it ever was when he said it, and these days can be applied to the ‘black bourgeous liberals’ too, if not more so. It seriously does not appear – besides for Mandela – that any of the the many other ‘struggle brothers’ were fighting for justice and issues of integrity, equality and inner growth and understanding, but more so for $$$$$$$, -or as Cheney would call it ‘The American Way of Life’ -- and as McMansion High flying as possible, don’t matter who has to be stepped upon, lied to or deceived along the way. I don’t mind being proved wrong. I would be more than happy to be proven wrong, and to find that somewhere in our government or opposition political parties, and in the South African people, there truly are citizens whose intellectual, emotional and psychological focus is not simply never ending consumption as a goal for ‘equality’ or some other obscure automatonic Orwellian ideal, but that there are those who have learnt from Mandela’s story, from his vision to see the future, to see what needed to be done, to work and organise to get it done, to make a personal sacrifice so that it gets done. Are there any South Africans with the capability to envision the future of Peak Oil, to see what South Africans need to be doing, to work and organise to get it done, and to make personal sacrifices so that it gets done? If so, I imagine, we could do so, in a symbolic gesture, of informing the ‘father of our nation’ that his young children have learnt his incredible lesson of love, sacrifice, vision and commitment. That we know – not intellectually – but from an experience of learning we are able to put ourselves through – for our own good – that there is more to life, than a McMansion, fast car, fancy holidays, techno toys and abusive alienated sexually predatorial relationships. We can put our money where our mouths are, when we say we admire the man, or that we are ‘Proudly South African’. But without actions to match our emptry rhetoric, our words mean absolutely nothing. We are oxygen thieves, and deserve the fate we have instore for ourselves. Please be so kind as to prove me wrong. Sincerely,
Lara Johnstone PeakOil_RSA Listserv Moderator
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
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WHAT IS PEAK OIL? (ANSWER: THE END OF ‘CHEAP OIL’) Colin Campbell: "The term Peak Oil refers the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area under consideration, recognising that it is a finite natural resource, subject to depletion."18 [A] Peak Oil is also called "Hubbert's Peak," named for the Shell geologist Dr. Marion King Hubbert. In 1956, Hubbert accurately predicted that US domestic oil production would peak in 1970.19 He also predicted global production would peak in 1995, which it would have had the politically created oil shocks of the 1970s not delayed the peak for about 10-15 years. [A] Oil will not just "run out" because all oil production follows a bell curve. This is true whether we're talking about an individual field, a country, or on the planet as a whole. Oil is increasingly plentiful on the upslope of the bell curve, increasingly scarce and expensive on the down slope. The peak of the curve coincides with the point at which the endowment of oil has been 50 percent depleted. Once the peak is passed, oil production begins to go down while cost begins to go up.20 [A] 18 19
ASPO: Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas Our Petroleum Predicament: A Special Editorial Feature by GEORGE PAZIK Editor & Publisher, Fishing Facts, November 1976.
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17 In practical and considerably oversimplified terms, this means that if 2000 was the year of global Peak Oil, worldwide oil production in the year 2020 will be the same as it was in 1980. However, the world’s population in 2020 will be both much larger (approximately twice) and much more industrialized (oildependent) than it was in 1980. Consequently, worldwide demand for oil will outpace worldwide production of oil by a significant margin21. As a result, the price will skyrocket, oil-dependant economies will crumble, and resource wars will explode22[A] The issue is not one of running out of oil, it is the running out of cheap oil, which is about not having enough to keep the world’s economies running. The ramifications of Peak Oil for western capitalist civilisation are similar to the ramifications of dehydration for the human body. [A] The world’s oil-based growth economy, doesn’t need to deplete its entire reserve of oil before it begins to collapse. A shortfall between demand and supply as little as 10-15 percent is enough to wholly shatter the worlds oil dependent economies and reduce their citizenry to poverty. The effects of even a small drop in production can be devastating. For instance, during the 1970s oil shocks,23 shortfalls in production as small as 5% caused the price of oil to nearly quadruple. The same thing happened in California a few years ago with natural gas: a production drop of less than 5% caused prices to skyrocket by 400%.[A] Colin Campbell noted another example of the effects of even a small drop in production in his report to South African Businesses: Peak Oil: An Outlook on Crude Oil Depletion, on Mbendi: It is worth briefly recalling what occurred in Europe in late 2000, as a foretaste of what happens when oil supply becomes short and expensive. The French fishermen blockaded the Channel Ports because their fuel costs had doubled, even though their fuel was already tax-free. The dispute spread rapidly to England and other countries. Schools were closed. Hospitals had red alerts because staff and patients could not reach them. Supermarkets started rationing bread. Trade and industry was seriously interrupted: the cost was huge. People lost confidence in their governments, whose popular support fell sharply. If an interruption in supply lasting only a few days could cause such havoc, it surely demonstrates how utterly dependent on oil we have become.
20
Association for Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO) + Oil Depletion Analysis Center; + M. King Hubbert Center For Petroleum Supply Studies + The American Society of Petroleum Geologists + The Geological Society of London + Petroleum Institute of London + Geologist & Oil Industry Expert, Dr. Colin Campbell + Professor Kjell Aleklett, Ph.D.+ LifeAfterTheOilCrash.net, etc. 21 A brave new oily world: The current spike isn't like the oil shocks of yesterday ... tight supply is here to stay, by Kathleen Hays, CCNMoney.com, March 21, 2005: 9:30 AM EST. 22 PowerShift – Oil, Money and War, by Financial Sense Online: Uncommon News for the Wise Investor: Jim Puplava’s Perspectives, and International Perspective: The Militarisation Of Oil, by Marshall Auerback, www.prudentbear.com, March 8, 2005, and with comment from FTW. 23 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_energy_crisis
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18 Fortunately, those price shocks were only temporary. The coming oil shocks won't be so short-lived. They represent the onset of a new, permanent condition.24 Once the decline gets under way, production will drop (conservatively) by 3% per year, every year. [A] That estimate comes from numerous sources,25 not the least of which is Vice President Dick Cheney himself26. Unfortunately, many experts are nowhere near as optimistic as Mr. Cheney was in 1999. Andrew Gould, CEO of the giant oil services firm, Schlumberger, recently stated that “An accurate average decline rate is hard to estimate, but an overall figure of 8% is not an unreasonable assumption.” An 8% yearly decline would cut global oil production by a whopping 50% in less than nine years. If a 5% cut in production caused prices to triple in the 1970s, what do you think a 50% cut is going to do? [A] Other experts are predicting decline rates as high as 10%-to-13%.27 Some geologists expect 2005 to be the last year of the cheap-oil bonanza,28 while many estimates coming out of the oil industry indicate "a seemingly unbridgeable supply-demand gap opening up after 2007,"29 which will lead to major fuel shortages and increasingly severe blackouts beginning around 2008-2012.30 As we slide down the downslope of the global oil production curve, we may find ourselves slipping into what some scientists are calling the "post-industrial stone age."31 [A]
[A_PrimarySource_Savinar See Bibliography Primary Sources LifeAfterTheOilCrash & Matt Savinar]
24
A brave new oily world: The current spike isn't like the oil shocks of yesterday ... tight supply is here to stay, by Kathleen Hays, CCNMoney.com, March 21, 2005: 9:30 AM EST. 25 ASPO at http://www.peakoil.net/ 26 Dick Cheney, Peak Oil and the Final Countdown, by Prof. Kjell Aleklett, President of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil, May 12, 2004. 27 http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/11/16/182053/32 28 Peak Oil: Current Situation & 2005 Projections, by Dale Allen Pfeiffer, 28 December 2004, FTW. 29 ODAC: NEWS RELEASE: Tuesday, 16 November 2004: Mega Projects Release and New Oil Projects Cannot Meet World Needs this Decade. 30 The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge, by Richard C. Duncan, Ph. D., Pardee Keynote Symposia Geological Society of America, Summit 2000, Reno, Nevada, November 13, 2000. 31
The Olduvai Theory: Sliding Towards a Post-Industrial Stone Age, by Richard C. Duncan, Ph.D., Institute on Energy and Man, June 27, 1996 * JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
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II. WHO KNOWS WHAT ABOUT PEAK OIL?
International Opinions of Geologists, Energy Advisors, Scientists, Investment Bankers, etc. on Peak Oil
South African Expert Opinions on Peak Oil
International Opinions of Geologists, Energy Advisors, Scientists, Investment Bankers, etc. on Peak Oil: Civilization – the modern, petroleum based civilization that Dick Cheney refers to as “The American Way of Life” -- is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. This is the scientific conclusion of some of the bestpaid, most widely respected geologists,32 energy advisors and oil experts,33 scientists & scientific bodies,34 and investment bankers and banks,3536 in the world. These rational, professional, conservative individuals are making and recommending serious preparations for the global phenomenon known as global Peak Oil. [A] Furthermore others who have studied or know about Peak Oil and publicly commented on it or its effects include the G8,37 International Energy Agency,38 US Army Corps of Engineers,39 the Pentagon,40 See Bibliography: International: Geologists, Scientific Bodies, Energy/Oil Advisors & Investors: Association for Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO) Oil Depletion Analysis Center; M. King Hubbert Center For Petroleum Supply Studies Geologist & Oil Industry Expert, Dr. Colin Campbell Professor Kjell Aleklett, Ph.D. 33 See Bibliography: International: Geologists, Scientific Bodies, Energy/Oil Advisors & Investors: Dr. Robert L. Hirsch, Senior Energy Advisor, SAIC, author of Hirsch Report Ken Deffeyes, Princeton Univ. Emeritus Professor & Oil Analyst A.S. Bakhtiari, Senior Advisor to the National Iranian Oil Company 34 See Bibliography: International: Geologists, Scientific Bodies, Energy/Oil Advisors & Investors: David Goodstein, Vice-provost at the California Institute of Technology + Swedish National Academy of Sciences 35 See Bibliography: International: Geologists, Scientific Bodies, Energy/Oil Advisors & Investors: Mathew Simmons & Simmons & Company International 36 See Bibliography: International: Banks/Financial Corporate Bodies: Bank for International Settlements. + Bibliography: South Africa: ABSA Bank (RSA) 37 Peak Oil mentioned in G8 report, PeakOil.com: The G8 Research Group has released a report on G8 priorities at the 2006 St. Petersburg Summit. Peak Oil is mentioned on pages 45-46. Also on Energy Bulletin. For text see Bibliography G8 38 ASPO report that three years ago when the first ever “Peak Oil” conference was organized in Uppsala Sweden by ASPO, very few know about Peak Oil. Today, if you make an advance search on Google with the exact phrase “Peak Oil” you will get around 2.000.000 hits. IEA says: “’Peak oil’ is now part of the general public’s vocabulary”. The new book “Resources to Reserves” is a reply from IEA on the pressure from the Peak Oil movement. 32
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20 (CIA),41
Government,42
the Central Intelligence Agency the Swedish the Senate Foreign Relations 43 44 Committee, the US House of Representatives, US and UK politicians,45 an Australian politician,46 the Secretary of State, Ms. Condoleeza Rice,47 former Federal Reserve Bank Chairman, Alan Greenspan,48 Vice President Dick Cheney,49 and by no means least of all, two United States Presidents.50 US Labour Against the War (USLAW):51 Everybody with common sense knows that George Bush invaded Iraq for its oil! NOW do you know that: at the current production rate, North America and Western Europe will run out of oil in 2010? One million U.S. military personnel are deployed overseas near oil fields and oil routes? U.S. military deployment in Afghanistan and Central Asia blocks China and Russia from accessing oil and natural gas they desperately need for their economies?
J. Cooper, Congressman from Tennessee, in July 2005: “America is still in denial about the energy problem and few politicians are prepared to accept painful solutions”
Former President Bill Clinton, July 11, 2006: 52 “To the best of my knowledge I never had a security briefing which said what some of these very serious but conservative petroleum geologists say, which is they think that either now or before the decade is out that we'll reach peak oil production globally and with the rise of China and India and others coming along unless we can dramatically reduce our oil usage we will run out of recoverable oil within 35 to 50 years. ASPO reports that a US Army Corps of Engineers report states: “Peak oil is at hand with low availability growth for the next 5 to 10 years. Once worldwide petroleum production peaks, geopolitics and market economics will result in even more significant price increases and security risks. To guess where this is all going to take us is would be too speculative. Oil wars are certainly not out of the question.” Also: Energy Bulletin report, “US Army: Peak Oil and the Army’s Future,” by Adam Fenderson and Bart Anderson, 13 March, 2006, that a paper prepared for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers titled “Energy Trends and Implications for U.S. Army Installations” (Sept., 2005) includes the following tidbit: The supply of oil will remain fairly stable in the very near term, but oil prices will steadily increase as world production approaches its peak. The doubling of oil prices in the past couple of years is not an anomaly, but a picture of the future. Peak oil is at hand. . . 40 See Bibliography: International: National Governments: Dept of Defense Renewable Energy Assessment Final Report; Dept of Defense: Secretary of Defense; Department of Defense: Pentagon and Peak Oil Publications 41 See Bibliography: International: National Governments: CIA: Smoking Gun: The CIA's Interest in Peak Oil (Special to From the Wilderness) by Richard Heinberg CIA: [A recently declassified 1977 CIA study on Peak Oil in the Soviet Union is a telling indicator that Peak Oil issues have been of secret concern to policy makers in the US for a long time. CIA: See former CIA Director, James Woolsey's written testimony before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, where both Houses recognized Peak Oil. The hearing was titled The High Costs of Crude: The New Currency of Foreign Policy." CIA: National Security to Lead Renewable Energy Deployment: U.S. Energy Independence Goals Propel Renewable Energy to Next Phase, CIA: GlobalCorp: I am not a Politician: The Fire is No Longer on It's Way, It has Begun, by FTW. 42 See Bibliography: International: National Governments: The National Government of Sweden 43 See Bibliography: International: National Governments: USA: Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Hearing on Peak Oil: 44 See Bibliography: International: National Representative Bodies… Congressman Roscoe Bartlett (R, MD), House of Representatives Peak Oil Caucus. 45 See Bibliography: International: National Representative Bodies… Congressman Roscoe Bartlett, D. Lamm, Former CO Governor Michael Meacher, former UK Environment Minister. 46 Australian Politician Goes on Record about Peak Oil and Gas, March 9, 2005 by Global Public Media, and FTW. 47 Excerpt from Congressman Roscoe Bartlett’s speech, Energy Production and Supply, in the Congressional Record: “Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, made a statement that I would like to read. In this statement she said: “We do have to do something about the energy problem. I can tell you that nothing has really taken me aback more as Secretary of State than the way that the politics of energy is, I will use the word ‘warping diplomacy,' around the world. We have simply got to do something about the warping now of diplomatic effort by the all-out rush for energy supply.''” See also Bibliography: International: National Representative Bodiess.. Secretary of State: Ms. Condoleeza-Rice 48 Greenspan Sounds Alarm on Oil Supply, Reuters, Washington, Wednesday, June 7, 2006, with comment from FTW.. See also Bibliography: International: Banks/Financial Corporate Bodies Alan Greenspan, Former Reserve Bank Chairman 49 Mr. Cheneys statements in a 1999 speech, while CEO of Halliburton. See also Bibliography: International: National Representative Bodies… U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney 50 See also Bibliography: International: National Representative Bodies… Former President Bill Clinton Current US President George W. Bush 51 US Labour Against the War: The Oil Factor: Behind the War on Terror, Documentary 52 Transcribed excerpts from A conversation with Bill Clinton - a 54-minute audio posted July 11 by Minnesota Public Radio: 39
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21 “And that would mean in addition to climate change we have a very short time in the life of the planet to turn this around. So I think that we all need to start ... thinking about that. As we propose practical solutions to climate change, we all need to keep this in the back of our minds. “There's a good chance that these people who made a living all these years studying petroleum deposits know what they're talking about, and we may not have as much oil as we think. So we need to get in gear.”
Dozens of International media publications53 appear to be taking them seriously. Finally, various US states and cities have passed Peak Oil Resolutions, 54 and various Universities have Peak Oil Curricula55.
South African Expert Opinions on Peak Oil Comparatively, the scientific conclusion of one University Professor56 in South Africa is that civilisation founded on cheap oil is coming to an end soon, as a result of the imminent inevitability of Peak Oil. According to three other University Professors & Lecturers,57 one oil consultant,58 one bank,59 and one corporation60 in South Africa: Peak Oil (the end of cheap oil) is a reality, some consider it more imminent than others, but all consider it a reality, which we need to take reasonably seriously (but their sense of urgency is not nearly that ‘civilisation as we know it is coming to an end soon’.) The University staff are however speaking out and raising awareness as to the concept of Peak Oil and that preparations need to be taken by the South African government to prepare for Peak Oil. As for the Dept. of Environment,61 the Western Cape,62 and the city of Johannesburg’s63 positions are rather ambiguous: they do not dispute the reality of Peak Oil as a future threat, which needs to be planned for, although they do not indicate any sense of urgent implementation requirements, and furthermore the paradigm within which they intend planning to deal with it, seems to indicate that they do not have anywhere near a comprehensive understanding of what Peak Oil’s causes are (the paradigm of economic growth and it’s inherent flaws), and how Peak Oil needs to be mitigated (reduce consumption, reduce population, reduce energy use, discard ‘economic growth’ paradigm’s including ‘sustainable growth’ which is an oxymoron!). Although the city of Capetown – to be fair – comes the closest to hinting that there may be a problem with their paradigm of endless growth/consumption. As of 18 July 2006, the South African Government, especially Energy, Finance, the Central Energy Fund, PetroSA, including the Reserve Bank Governor (Mboweni) are deathly silent about Peak Oil, or See Bibliography: International: US & International Media: International Financial Stock Market Publications International Political, News, etc. Media Publications 54 Minnesota, San Francisco, CA & Portland, OR. See also See also Bibliography: International: International & USA State & City Peak Oil Resolutions. 55 University of Oregon, Department of Political Science: Peak Oil and the Politics of the 21st Century (PS339) 56 See also Bibliography: South Africa Professor Willis, Southern African Director of the University of Cambridge Programme for Industry, based in Cape Town 57 See Bibliography: South Africa Prof. Hussein Solomon, Center for International Studies, Univ. of Pretoria Jeremy Wakeford, School of Economics, Univ. of Capetown Prof. Mark Swilling, School of Public Management and Planning, Univ. of Stellenbosch + Prof. Peter Willis, Southern African Director of the Univ. of Cambridge Program for Industry, Capetown. 58 See Bibliography: South Africa Mark Beare, petro-chemical consultant 59 See Bibliography: South Africa ABSA Bank 60 See Bibliography: South Africa FutureAntz.co.za 61 See Bibliography: South Africa Dept. of Environment 62 See Bibliography: South Africa Western Cape 63 See Bibliography: South Africa City of Johannesburg 53
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22 Party64
the real reasons for the rise in the petrol prices and interest rates. The South African Communist considers Peak Oil a possibility that should be seriously considered for; and the DA’s65 spokesperson on Defence has submitted a proposal to the Government to consider a $100-a-barrel task team. A minor few non-profit organisations66 also appear aware as to the possibility of Peak Oil.
The South African English speaking media,67 including Business Day, Carte Blanche, The Financial Mail, Noseweek, Cape Times, Biophile, EngineeringNews, UCT’s Energy Management News, The Mercury and The Mail & Guardian have reported on Peak Oil, with headlines such as The End of Cheap Oil: It’s Time We Talked End of the Oil Age End of Oil Oil: Are We Running Out? Is there a future without Oil? Did their content seriously explore their essense behind the sensationalist heading? For the most part they seem to grudgingly accept Peak Oil as a possible reality, from my interpretation not a virtual certainty for which urgent preparations need to be made (just in case), definitely not firm believers, except possibly for the Mail & Guardian. The Financial Times doesn’t even consider it a possibility, Noseweek considers it a plausible conspiracy theory, too frighteningly realistic to take seriously. Noteworthy quotes being from Business Days, End of the Oil Age, by Lindsay Williams, 21 April 2005; with guest Petroleum Review editor, Chris Skebowski where Skebowski ends with: “We’re assuming that we can - in an unrestrained way - let people have as much oil (fuel) as they want, providing they’ve got the cash to pay for it. That, I don’t think, is particularly sustainable. When we say our whole way of life may have to change - this reflects the fact that oil is pervasive in almost everything we do. First of all, about 70% of oil actually goes into the transportation sector - sea, air or land. Our whole economy is predicated on having that. It’s very difficult to envisage a modern developed society - without large volumes of relatively low cost oil. Some of the other uses - like lubricants, like petro-chemicals - are even more restrictive because there just aren’t obvious alternatives to them! So if the whole supply is going to shall we say, “go flat” with no growth - then we’ve got to work out how we can conduct normal economic activities with less oil!
Mail & Guardian’s Is this the legacy we want to leave our children? by Glenn Ashton, 06 Dec 2004 “Time for change: Yet this state of affairs need not continue. We have, by most accounts, reached peak oil production. We will never have cheap oil again. There is talk of a shift to low-grade coal and even worse options, but the idiocy and futility of this route is clear to all but the blind. We need to move toward a way of life so radically different it is hard to consider possible today, but we also should not believe See Bibliography: South Africa South African Communist Party Govt should consider $100-a-barrel task team, Hendrik Schmidt, DA Spokesperson on Defence, 15 August 2005. 66 Ground Zero in the Carbon Economy, People on the Petro-chemical Fence Line, Friends of the Earth International, Booklet 5 of 5, by Groundwork.org.za, the South African Exchange Program on Environmental Justice, and International Possibilities Unlimited; Message from the IUCN Country Programme Coordinator, August 2005; 67 See Bibliography: South Africa South African Media 64 65
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23 such change is impossible. Radical change is essential for the future of all of life on earth. How do we embrace this change, which threatens the very core of our culture, our current way of life? More to the point, can we continue to rely on a system that is inevitably moving toward atrophy? Yet, precedents for radical change do in fact exist.”
Finally, Sasol’s lack of concern, plausibly can be described as the Mail & Guardian’s ‘futile blindness’ and probably exemplifies the general South African blindness, as stated by Sasol’s Andre de Ruyter (Strategic Operation Manager) in Carte Blanche (John Webb’s) End of Oil, interview of Richard Heinberg, 08 May 2005, with comment from Mr. De Ruyter/Sasol: “"We calculate that we have some 300 years' worth of coal left for local use, including exports, so to be alarmist about the state of our coal reserves at this stage, I think is not necessary." André says we can keep our faith in cars because fossil fuel will remain profitable for decades.”
Perhaps The Financial Mail’s The Global Oil Industry at a Crossroads, by Stafford Thomas, 09 September 2005 may cause Sasol/Mr. De Ruyter to re-enquire into the issue of Peak Oil’s consequences on South Africa: “Welcome to the age of the perpetual oil shock. This is the message coming through loud and clear from the world's major oil producers as they warn that the era of cheap oil is over.”
[A_PrimarySource_Savinar: See Bibliography Matt Savinar & LifeAfterTheOilCrash.net]
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24
18 July 2006_PeakOil_RSA_Briefing Paper
III. HOW SERIOUS IS THE THREAT OF PEAK OIL?
Peak Oil: Food Production & Population Issues Peak Oil: Medicine, Water and National Defense Peak Oil: Financial / Banking System o Are the Banks Aware of this Situation? Conclusion: “What Does All of This Mean?
Addressing this question requires some speculation: the peaking of global oil production is an event that has never occurred before. However, we need not speculate baselessly; for guidance we have a U.S. governmentfunded study that could hardly be more relevant—“The Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management,” prepared by Science Applications International (SAIC) for the U.S. Department of Energy, released in February 2005. The project leader for the study was Robert L. Hirsch, who has had a distinguished career in formulating energy policy. The report on the study will hereinafter be referred to as “The Hirsch Report.”[C] The first paragraph of the Hirsch Report’s Executive Summary states:[C] The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.18
As the Hirsch Report explains in detail, due to our systemic dependence on oil for transportation, agriculture, and the production of plastics and chemicals, every sector of society will be impacted.[C] The Hirsch Report effectively undermines the standard free-market argument that oil depletion poses no serious problem, now or later, because as oil becomes scarcer the price will rise until demand is reduced commensurate with supply; meanwhile, higher prices will stimulate more exploration, the development of alternative fuels, and the more efficient use of remaining quantities. While it is true that rising prices will do all of these things, we have no assurance that the effects will be sufficient to avert severe, protracted economic, social, and political disruptions.[C] First, price increases may or may not stimulate more exploration, or do so sufficiently or productively. During the early 20th century, more exploration resulted in more oil being discovered.
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25 However, in recent decades, expanded exploration efforts have turned up fewer and fewer finds. It is difficult to avoid the obvious conclusion that there simply isn’t much oil left to discover.[C] Higher prices for oil will also no doubt spur new investment in alternative fuels. But the time required to produce substantial quantities of alternative fuels will be considerable, given the volume of our national transportation fuel consumption. Moreover the amount of investment required will be immense. And it would be unrealistic to expect most alternatives to fully or even substantially replace oil at any level of investment, and even with decades of effort, given practical, physical constraints to their development.[C] Higher prices will also no doubt spur efficiency measures, but the most productive of these will likewise require time and investment. For example, raising the fuel efficiency of the U.S. auto fleet would require years for industry retooling and more years for consumers to trade in their current vehicles for more-efficient replacements.[C] James Schlesinger, who served as CIA director in the Nixon administration, Defense secretary in the Nixon and Ford administrations, and energy secretary in the Carter administration, in November, 2005 testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee urged lawmakers to begin preparing for declining oil supplies and increasing prices in the coming decades. “We are faced with the possibility of a major economic shock and the political unrest that would ensue,” he said. 68[C] Schlesinger was far from overstating the threat. In fact, it would be no exaggeration to view Peak Oil as potentially representing the economic, social, and political impact of a hundred Katrinas. And that impact will not subside in a few days’ or years’ time: once global oil production has peaked, the energy shortfalls for transportation and agriculture will be ongoing, relentless, and cumulative.[C]
Peak Oil: Food Production & Population Issues In Threats of Peak Oil to the Global Food Supply, Richard Heinberg begins with:-Food is energy. And it takes energy to get food. These two facts, taken together, have always established the biological limits to the human population and always will. The same is true for every other species: food must yield more energy to the eater than is needed in order to acquire the food. Woe to the fox who expends more energy chasing rabbits than he can get from eating the rabbits he catches. If this energy balance remains negative for too long, death results; for an entire species, the outcome is a die-off event, perhaps leading even to extinction. …. Over all - including energy costs for farm machinery, transportation, and processing, and oil and natural gas used as feedstocks for agricultural chemicals - the modern food system consumes roughly ten calories of fossil fuel energy for every calorie of food energy produced.4 But the single most telling gauge of our dependency is the size of the global population. Without fossil fuels, the stupendous growth in human numbers that has occurred over the past century would have been impossible. Can we continue to support so many people as the availability of cheap oil declines?
Some facts: In the US, agriculture is directly responsible for well over 10 percent of all national energy consumption. Over 400 gallons of oil equivalent are expended to feed each American each year. About a third of that amount goes toward fertilizer production, 20 percent to operate machinery, 16 percent for transportation, 68
James Schlesinger Testimony before Senate Foreign Relations Committee. See also Bibliography Int National Governments USA: Department of Defense: Secretary of Defense
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26 13 percent for irrigation, 8 percent for livestock raising, (not including the feed), and 5 percent for pesticide production. This does not include energy costs for packaging, refrigeration, transportation to retailers, or cooking. Trucks move most of the world's food, even though trucking is ten times more energy-intensive than moving food by train or barge. Refrigerated jets move a small but growing proportion of food, almost entirely to wealthy industrial nations, at 60 times the energy cost of sea transport. Processed foods make up three-quarters of global food sales by price (though not by quantity). This adds dramatically to energy costs: for example, a one-pound box of breakfast cereal may require over 7,000 kilocalories of energy for processing, while the cereal itself provides only 1,100 kilocalories of food energy.
In a Harpers Magazine Feature, The Oil We Eat, on July 23, 2004, Richard Manning provides the following ‘food production based on oil’ related to population issues ‘food for thought’: The journalist’s rule says: follow the money. This rule, however, is not really axiomatic but derivative, in that money, as even our vice president will tell you, is really a way of tracking energy. We’ll follow the energy. We learn as children that there is no free lunch, that you don’t get something from nothing, that what goes up must come down, and so on. The scientific version of these verities is only slightly more complex. As James Prescott Joule discovered in the nineteenth century, there is only so much energy. You can change it from motion to heat, from heat to light, but there will never be more of it and there will never be less of it. The conservation of energy is not an option, it is a fact. This is the first law of thermodynamics. Special as we humans are, we get no exemptions from the rules. All animals eat plants or eat animals that eat plants. This is the food chain, and pulling it is the unique ability of plants to turn sunlight into stored energy in the form of carbohydrates, the basic fuel of all animals. Solar-powered photosynthesis is the only way to make this fuel. There is no alternative to plant energy, just as there is no alternative to oxygen. The results of taking away our plant energy may not be as sudden as cutting off oxygen, but they are as sure. Energy cannot be created or canceled, but it can be concentrated. This is the larger and profoundly explanatory context of a national-security memo George Kennan wrote in 1948 as the head of a State Department planning committee, ostensibly about Asian policy but really about how the United States was to deal with its newfound role as the dominant force on Earth. “We have about 50 percent of the world’s wealth but only 6.3 percent of its population,” Kennan wrote. “In this situation, we cannot fail to be the object of envy and resentment. Our real task in the coming period is to devise a pattern of relationships which will permit us to maintain this position of disparity without positive detriment to our national security. To do so, we will have to dispense with all sentimentality and day-dreaming; and our attention will have to be concentrated everywhere on our immediate national objectives. We need not deceive ourselves that we can afford today the luxury of altruism and world-benefaction.”“The day is not far off,” Kennan concluded, “when we are going to have to deal in straight power concepts.” … On average, it takes 5.5 gallons of fossil energy to restore a year’s worth of lost fertility to an acre of eroded land—in 1997 we burned through more than 400 years’ worth of ancient fossilized productivity, most of it from someplace else. Even as the earth beneath Iowa shrinks, it is being globalized. ...The experience in population control in the developing world is by now clear: It is not that people make more people so much as it is that they make more poor people. In the forty-year period beginning about 1960, the world’s population doubled, adding virtually the entire increase of 3 billion to the world’s poorest classes, the most fecund classes. The way in which the green revolution raised that grain
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27 contributed hugely to the population boom, and it is the weight of the population that leaves humanity in its present untenable position. Discussion of these, the most poor, however, is largely irrelevant to the American situation. We say we have poor people here, but almost no one in this country lives on less than one dollar a day, the global benchmark for poverty. It marks off a class of about 1.3 billion people, the hard core of the larger group of 2 billion chronically malnourished people—that is, one third of humanity. We may forget about them, as most Americans do. The common assumption these days is that we muster our weapons to secure oil, not food. There’s a little joke in this. Ever since we ran out of arable land, food is oil. Every single calorie we eat is backed by at least a calorie of oil, more like ten. In 1940 the average farm in the United States produced 2.3 calories of food energy for every calorie of fossil energy it used. By 1974 (the last year in which anyone looked closely at this issue), that ratio was 1:1. And this understates the problem, because at the same time that there is more oil in our food there is less oil in our oil. A couple of generations ago we spent a lot less energy drilling, pumping, and distributing than we do now. In the 1940s we got about 100 barrels of oil back for every barrel of oil we spent getting it. Today each barrel invested in the process returns only ten, a calculation that no doubt fails to include the fuel burned by the Hummers and Blackhawks we use to maintain access to the oil in Iraq. ...There is another energy matter to consider here, though. The grinding, milling, wetting, drying, and baking of a breakfast cereal requires about four calories of energy for every calorie of food energy it produces. A two-pound bag of breakfast cereal burns the energy of a half-gallon of gasoline in its making. All together the food-processing industry in the United States uses about ten calories of fossilfuel energy for every calorie of food energy it produces. That number does not include the fuel used in transporting the food from the factory to a store near you, or the fuel used by millions of people driving to thousands of super discount stores on the edge of town, where the land is cheap. ...Green eaters, especially vegetarians, advocate eating low on the food chain, a simple matter of energy flow. Eating a carrot gives the diner all that carrot’s energy, but feeding carrots to a chicken, then eating the chicken, reduces the energy by a factor of ten. The chicken wastes some energy, stores some as feathers, bones, and other inedibles, and uses most of it just to live long enough to be eaten. As a rough rule of thumb, that factor of ten applies to each level up the food chain, which is why some fish, such as tuna, can be a horror in all of this. Tuna is a secondary predator, meaning it not only doesn’t eat plants but eats other fish that themselves eat other fish, adding a zero to the multiplier each notch up, easily a hundred times, more like a thousand times less efficient than eating a plant. Animal rights aside, vegetarians can lose the edge in the energy argument by eating processed food, with its ten calories of fossil energy for every calorie of food energy produced. The question, then, is: Does eating processed food such as soy burger or soy milk cancel the energy benefits of vegetarianism, which is to say, can I eat my lamb chops in peace? Maybe. If I’ve done my due diligence, I will have found out that the particular lamb I am eating was both local and grass-fed, two factors that of course greatly reduce the embedded energy in a meal. I know of ranches here in Montana, for instance, where sheep eat native grass under closely controlled circumstances—no farming, no plows, no corn, no nitrogen. Assets have not been stripped. I can’t eat the grass directly. This can go on. There are little niches like this in the system. Each person’s individual charge is to find such niches. ...Eighty percent of the grain the United States produces goes to livestock. Seventy-eight percent of all of our beef comes from feed lots, where the cattle eat grain, mostly corn and wheat. So do most of our hogs and chickens. The cattle spend their adult lives packed shoulder to shoulder in a space not much bigger than their bodies, up to their knees in shit, being stuffed with grain and a constant stream of antibiotics to prevent the disease this sort of confinement invariably engenders. The manure is rich in nitrogen and once provided a farm’s fertilizer. The feedlots, however, are now far removed from farm fields, so it is simply not “efficient” to haul it to cornfields. It is waste. It exhales methane, a global* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
28 warming gas. It pollutes streams. It takes thirty-five calories of fossil fuel to make a calorie of beef this way; sixty-eight to make one calorie of pork. Still, these livestock do something we can’t. They convert grain’s carbohydrates to high-quality protein. All well and good, except that per capita protein production in the United States is about double what an average adult needs per day. Excess cannot be stored as protein in the human body but is simply converted to fat. This is the end result of a factory-farm system that appears as a living, continentalscale monument to Rube Goldberg, a black-mass remake of the loaves-and-fishes miracle. Prairie’s productivity is lost for grain, grain’s productivity is lost in livestock, livestock’s protein is lost to human fat—all federally subsidized for about $15 billion a year, two thirds of which goes directly to only two crops, corn and wheat. This explains why the energy expert David Pimentel is so worried that the rest of the world will adopt America’s methods. He should be, because the rest of the world is. Mexico now feeds 45 percent of its grain to livestock, up from 5 percent in 1960. Egypt went from 3 percent to 31 percent in the same period, and China, with a sixth of the world’s population, has gone from 8 percent to 26 percent. All of these places have poor people who could use the grain, but they can’t afford it.
So, from that you’ll realise that petrochemicals are key components to much more than just the petrol in your car. Jay Tomczak points out in Implications of Fossil Fuel Dependence for the Food System,69 The current food system is dependent on non-renewable fossil fuel resources, which will soon become increasingly scarce and expensive. This dependence is a threat to food security and future food supply. The availability of decades of cheap fossil fuel energy has allowed the food system to become dependent on finite resources that are rapidly being depleted. Due to the constraints of the first and second laws of thermodynamics this system cannot be maintained in its current form. Essential components of the current system such as synthetic nitrogen fertilizers, which require natural gas as a feedstock and oil dependent distribution, exemplify the fragile nature of the food system. A wide scale conversion to low energy, ecologically sustainable agriculture must be implemented to avoid food system collapse and future food supply shortages. …… If action to change these aspects of the food system is not taken, convening resource depletion and degradation will cause the food system to collapse.
The city of Brighton’s Direct Action Collective reports70: The implications [of Peak Oil] in terms of food are pretty terrifying. Since the 1960s it has been true to say that food equals oil. In 1944 the average US farm produced 2.3 thousand calories of food for every calorie of fossil fuel inputs. In 1974 the ratio became 1:1…. As Heinberg says, “in terms of energy return on energy invested, industrial agriculture is the least efficient food distribution system the world has ever known.”
Geologist Dale Allen Pfeiffer points out in his article entitled, "Eating Fossil Fuels,"71 that approximately 10 calories of fossil fuels are required to produce every 1calorie of food eaten in the
69
Implications of Fossil Fuel Dependence for the Food System, by Jay Tomczak, Tompkins Country Relocalization Project, December 12,
2005 70 71
SchNews.co.uk: Wake Up. It’s Yer End of the World! Apeakolypse Now, 27 May 2005 Eating Fossil Fuels, by Dale Allen Pfeiffer, FTW, Oct 3, 2003.
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29 US.[A]
The size of this ratio stems from the fact that every step of modern food production is fossil fuel and petrochemical powered:72 Pesticides are made from oil;[A] Commercial fertilizers are made from ammonia, which is made from natural gas, which will peak about 10 years after oil peaks;73[A] With the exception of a few experimental prototypes,74 all farming implements such as tractors and trailers are constructed and powered using oil.[A] Food storage systems such as refrigerators are manufactured in oil-powered plants, distributed across oil-powered transportation networks and usually run on electricity, which most often comes from natural gas or coal;[A] In today’s globalized economy the average piece of food is transported hundreds to thousands of miles from where it is produced to where it is consumed (US almost 1,500 miles,75 in Canada 5,000 miles76). In short, people gobble oil like two-legged SUVs.77[A] To briefly conclude Mr. Pfeiffers investigation into the totality of food production in the US, which has major global implications since the US and Canada feed much of the world:[B] The motives of most of the wars in recorded history were the need to expand agricultural production, as an essential portion of the energy base.[B] With every increase in food production, the human population grew apace.[B] Modern agriculture is highly energy intensive: egs, to produce one kilogram of nitrogen for fertilizer requires the energy equivalent of 1.4 to 1.8 litres of diesel fuel (excluding the natural gas feedstock).[B] We are literally eating fossil fuels, but due to the laws of thermodynamics, between energy input and agricultural output, along the way there is a marked energy loss. Removing fossil fuels from the equation, the current US daily diet would require nearly three weeks of labour per capita to produce.[B] Modern intensive agriculture is (a) unsustainable, (b) damaging the land, (c) draining water supplies, (d) polluting the environment, all of which requires more fossil fuels input to pump irrigation water, replace nutrients, provide pest protection, and maintain crop production constant.[B] This necessary fossil fuel input is going to crash headlong into declining fossil fuel production![B] Giampietro & Pimental concluded that a sustainable food system would be possible under the following four conditions:[B] 72
Why Our Food is So Dependent on Oil, by Norman Church, 1 Apr 2005 ASPO: The Coming Global Oil Crisis: Natural Gas, 74 Permaculture: Electric Tractors, by Renewables.com. 75 The Farm Bill Gets Down On the Farm, by John Fawcett-Long, Washington Free Press, Agriculture # 15, April/May 1995 76 Matters of survival in a 'shattered world': Talking about the Earth with David Suzuki and C.W. Nicol, By Stephen Hesse, Japan Tiimes Online, Thursday, April 21, 2005 77 Why Our Food Is So Dependent On Oil, By Norman Church, 07 April, 2005, FTW 73
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30 1. Environmentally sound agricultural technologies must be implemented. 2. Renewable energy technologies must be put into place. 3. Major increases in energy efficiency must reduce exosomatic energy consumption per capita. 4. Population size and consumption must be compatible with maintaining the stability of environmental processes.78 Given the aforementioned four conditions they concluded that to achieve a sustainable economy and avert disaster, the then current US population of 292 million would require a 92 million 1/3rd) reduction.[B] NOTE: None of their aforementioned research, including it’s conclusions and population reduction recommendations, to attain a sustainable economy and avert disaster, considered the impact of declining fossil fuel production (Peak Oil)![B] In other words, the current peaking of global oil production is not only a crisis in and of itself but shall conceivably precipitate the aforementioned agricultural crisis sooner than expected, due to decreased production of the required fossil fuels for intensive agriculture to simply maintain crop production constant.[B] Therefore:- …a population reduction of one-third will not be effective for sustainability. ….the necessary reduction might be in excess of one-half … In light of Peak Oil/declining fossil fuel production’s input into agriculture, and the additional impending agricultural crisis: For global sustainability to be achieved, global population will have to be reduced by 2/3rds to 2 billion (a reduction of 68%).[B] He concludes we are confronted with three choices: (a) Immediate and drastic conscious responsible voluntary population reduction, probably our best although also least likely choice; (b) Alternatively immediate and drastic Government intervention by mandated population reduction, via sterilisation and quota’s; which will no doubt result in screams of eugenics from Peak Oil denialists; and (c) Failure to confront our overpopulation crisis, will simply result in spiralling food costs, and unprecedented starvation, i.e. the eventual die-off Darwinian Malthusian consequences.[B] He asks: “Does our present lifestyle mean so much to us that we would subject ourselves and our children to this fast approaching tragedy simply for a few more years of conspicuous consumption?”
In the Energy Bulletin article, Facing the Limits to Growth, Meadows explains catastrophic overshoot: Occasionally, however, there arises the potential for catastrophic overshoot. Growth in the globe's population and material economy confronts humanity with this possibility. It is the focus of Limits to Growth. The potential consequences of this overshoot are profoundly dangerous. The situation is unique; it confronts humanity with a variety of issues never before experienced by our species on a global scale. We lack the perspectives, the cultural norms, the habits, and the institutions required to cope. And the damage will, in many cases, take centuries or millennia to correct. But the consequences need not be catastrophic. Overshoot 78
The Tightening Conflict: Population, Energy Use, and the Ecology of Agriculture, Giampietro, Mario and Pimentel, David, 1994.
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31 can lead to two different outcomes. One is a crash of some kind. Another is a deliberate turnaround, a correction, a careful easing down. We explore these two possibilities as they apply to human society and the planet that supports it. We believe that a correction is possible and that it could lead to a desirable, sustainable, sufficient future for all the world's peoples. We also believe that if a profound correction is not made soon, a crash of some sort is certain…. Any population-economy-environment system that has feedback delays and slow physical responses; that has thresholds and erosive mechanisms; and that grows rapidly is literally unmanageable. No matter how fabulous its technologies, no matter how efficient its economy, no matter how wise its leaders, it can't steer itself away from hazards. If it constantly tries to accelerate, it will overshoot. By definition, overshoot is a condition in which the delayed signals from the environment are not yet strong enough to force an end to growth. How, then, can society tell if it is in overshoot? Falling resource stocks and rising pollution levels are the first clues. Here are some other symptoms: Capital, resources, and labor diverted to activities compensating for the loss of services that were formerly provided without cost by nature (for example, sewage treatment, air purification, water purification, flood control, pest control, restoration of soil nutrients, pollination, or the preservation of species). Capital, resources, and labor diverted from final goods production to exploitation of scarcer, more distant, deeper, or more dilute resources. Technologies invented to make use of lower-quality, smaller, more dispersed, less valuable resources, because the higher-value ones are gone. Failing natural pollution cleanup mechanisms; rising levels of pollution. Capital depreciation exceeding investment, and maintenance deferred, so there is deterioration in capital stocks, especially long-lived infrastructure. Growing demands for capital, resources, and labor used by the World: The Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World military or industry to gain access to, secure, and defend resources that are increasingly concentrated in fewer, more remote, or increasingly hostile regions. Investment in human resources (education, health care, shelter) postponed in order to meet immediate consumption, investment, or security needs, or to pay debts. Debts a rising percentage of annual real output. Eroding goals for health and environment. Increasing conflicts, especially conflicts over sources or sinks. Shifting consumption patterns as the population can no longer pay the price of what it really wants and, instead, purchases what it can afford. Declining respect for the instruments of collective government as they are used increasingly by the elites to preserve or increase their share of a declining resource base. Growing chaos in natural systems, with "natural" disasters more frequent and more severe because of less resilience in the environmental system. Do you observe any of these symptoms in your "real world"? If you do, you should suspect that your society is in advanced stages of overshoot.
Richard Heinberg does have some suggestions at the end of Threats of Peak Oil to the Global Food Supply:
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32 The transition to a non-fossil-fuel food system will take time. And it must be emphasized that we are discussing a systemic transformation - we cannot just remove oil in the forms of agrochemicals from the current food system and assume that it will go on more or less as it is. Every aspect of the process by which we feed ourselves must be redesigned. And, given the likelihood that global oil peak will occur soon, this transition must occur at a rapid pace, backed by the full resources of national governments. Without cheap transportation fuels we will have to reduce the amount of food transportation that occurs, and make necessary transportation more efficient. This implies increased local food self-sufficiency. It also implies problems for large cities that have been built in arid regions capable of supporting only small populations on their regional resource base. One has only to contemplate the local productivity of a place like Nevada, to appreciate the enormous challenge of continuing to feed people in such a city such as Las Vegas without easy transportation. We will need to grow more food in and around cities. Currently, Oakland California is debating a food policy initiative that would mandate by 2015 the growing within a fifty-mile radius of city center of 40 percent of the vegetables consumed in the city.11 If the example of Cuba were followed, rooftop gardens would result, as well as rooftop raising of food animals like chickens, rabbits and guinea pigs. Localization of the food process means moving producers and consumers of food closer together, but it also means relying on the local manufacture and regeneration of all of the elements of the production process - from seeds to tools and machinery. This would appear to rule out agricultural bioengineering, which favors the centralized production of patented seed varieties, and discourages the free saving of seeds from year to year by farmers. Clearly, we must minimize chemical inputs to agriculture (direct and indirect - such as those introduced in packaging and processing). We will need to re-introduce draft animals in agricultural production. Oxen may be preferable to horses in many instances, because the former can eat straw and stubble, while the latter would compete with humans for grains. Governments must also provide incentives for people to return to an agricultural life. It would be a mistake simply to think of this simply in terms of the need for a larger agricultural work force. Successful traditional agriculture requires social networks, and intergenerational sharing of skills and knowledge. We need not just more agricultural workers, but a rural culture that makes agricultural work rewarding. Farming requires knowledge and experience, and so we will need education for a new generation of farmers; but only some of this education can be generic - much of it must of necessity be locally appropriate. It will be necessary as well to break up the corporate mega-farms that produce so much of today's cheap grain. Industrial agriculture implies an economy of scale that will be utterly inappropriate and unworkable for post-industrial food systems. Thus land reform will be required in order to enable smallholders and farming co-ops to work their own plots. In order for all of this to happen, governments must end subsidies to industrial agriculture and begin subsidizing post-industrial agricultural efforts. There are many ways in which this could be done. The present regime of subsidies is so harmful that merely stopping it in its tracks might in itself be advantageous; but, given the fact that a rapid transition is essential, offering subsidies for education, nointerest loans for land purchase, and technical support during the transition from chemical to organic production would be essential. Finally, given carrying-capacity limits, food policy must include population policy. We must encourage smaller families by means of economic incentives and improve the economic and educational status of women in poorer countries.
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33 All of this constitutes a gargantuan task, but the alternatives - doing nothing or attempting to solve our food-production problems simply by applying more technological intensification - will almost certainly result in dire consequences. In that case, existing farmers would fail because of fuel and chemical prices. All of the worrisome existing trends mentioned earlier would intensify to the point that the human carrying capacity of Earth would be degraded significantly, and perhaps to a large degree permanently. In sum, the transition to a fossil-fuel-free food system does not constitute a utopian proposal. It is an immense challenge and will call for unprecedented levels of creativity at all levels of society. But in the end it is the only rational option for averting human calamity on a scale never before seen.
Peak Oil: Medicine, Water and National Defense It's not just agriculture and transportation’s petrol/diesel prices that are entirely dependent on abundant, cheap oil. Consider the and agriculture that are entirely dependent on abundant, cheap oil. Modern medicine,79 water distribution,80 and national defense81 are each entirely powered by oil and petroleum derived chemicals. In addition to transportation, food, water, and modern medicine, mass quantities of oil are required for all plastics,82 all computers and all high-tech devices. [A] Some specific examples may help illustrate the degree to which our technological base is dependent on fossil fuels: The construction of an average car consumes the energy equivalent of approximately 20 barrels of oil,83 which equates to 840 gallons, of oil. Ultimately, the construction of a car will consume an amount of fossil fuels equivalent to twice the car’s final weight.84[A] The production of one gram of microchips consumes 630 grams of fossil fuels. According to the American Chemical Society, the construction of single 32 megabyte DRAM chip requires 3.5 pounds of fossil fuels85 in addition to 70.5 pounds of water. [A] The construction of the average desktop computer consumes ten times its weight in fossil fuels.86 The Environmental Literacy Council tells us that due to the "purity and sophistication of materials (needed for) a microchip, . . . the energy used in producing nine or ten computers is enough to produce an automobile."87 [A] 79
Fossil Fuels & Modern Medicine by Carol Johnston, M.Ed., M.L.S., Center for Research in Medical Education and Health Care, Jefferson Medical College 80 The Connection: Water and Energy Security, by Dr. Allan R. Hoffman, Senior Analyst, U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), served as associate and acting deputy assistant secretary for Utility Technologies in the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy of the DOE and is an Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS) Advisor. 81 Oil Wars: Transforming the American Military into a Global Oil-Protection Service, by Michael T. Klare, Published on Friday, October 8, 2004 by TomDispatch.com. Michael T. Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College. This article is based on Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America's Growing Petroleum Dependency. 82 Plastic makers squeezed: The petrochemical industry's costs are skyrocketing as raw materials grow dearer, by John Spears. Published on 15 Oct 2004 by Toronto Star. Archived on 15 Oct 2004. 83 Life After the Oil Crash: Facts and Research: How Much Energy Does it Take to Construct a Car?. Other Research Questions and Facts: How Much Human Energy is Contained in One Gallon of Gas?; How Much Human Energy is Contained in One Barrel of Oil?; How Many Wind Turbines Would It Take to Replace a Single Off-Shore Drilling Platform? 84 Life Cycle Analysis, Enviroment Literacy Council. 85 The three-and-a-half pound microchip: Environmental implications of the IT revolution, Public release date: 5-Nov-2002. Contact: Beverly Hassell. b_hassell@acs.org. 202-872-4065. American Chemical Society 86 Computer manufacturing soaks up fossil fuels, UN University study, United Nations News Center, 8 March 2004. 87 Life Cycle Analysis, Environment Literary Council.
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34 When considering the role of oil in the production of modern technology, remember that most alternative systems of energy — including solar panels/solar-nanotechnology, windmills, hydrogen fuel cells, biodiesel production facilities, nuclear power plants, etc. — rely on sophisticated technology. [A] In fact, all electrical devices make use of silver, copper, and/or platinum, each of which is discovered, extracted, transported, and fashioned using oil-powered machinery. For instance, in his book, The Lean Years: Politics of Scarcity, author Richard J. Barnet writes: [A] To produce a ton of copper requires 112 million BTU's or the equivalent of 17.8 barrels of oil. The energy cost component of aluminum is twenty times higher. Nuclear energy requires uranium, which is also discovered, extracted, and transported using oilpowered machinery.
Most of the feedstock (soybeans, corn) for biofuels such as biodiesel and ethanol are grown using the high-tech, oil-powered industrial methods of agriculture described above. [A] In short, the so-called "alternatives" to oil are actually "derivatives" of oil.88 Without an abundant and reliable supply of oil, we have no way of scaling these alternatives to the degree necessary to power the modern world. [A]
Peak Oil: Financial / Banking System The global financial system is entirely dependent on a constantly increasing supply of oil and natural gas.89 The relationship between the supply of oil and natural gas and the workings of the global financial system is arguably the key issue to understanding and dealing with Peak Oil, far more important than alternative sources of energy, energy conservation, or the development of new technologies. [A] Dr. Colin Campbell presents an understandable model of this complex (and often difficult to explain) relationship:90 [A] It is becoming evident that the financial and investment community begins to accept the reality of Peak Oil, which ends the first half of the age of oil. They accept that banks created capital during this epoch by lending more than they had on deposit, being confident that tomorrow’s expansion, fuelled by cheap oilbased energy, was adequate collateral for today’s debt. The decline of oil, the principal driver of economic growth, undermines the validity of that collateral which in turn erodes the valuation of most entities quoted on Stock Exchanges. The investment community however faces a dilemma. It desires to protect its own fortunes and those of its privileged clients while at the same time is reluctant to take action that might itself trigger the meltdown. It is a closely-knit community so that it is hard for one to move without the others becoming aware of his actions. The scene is set for the Second Great Depression, but the conservatism and outdated mindset of institutional investors, together with the momentum of the massive flows of institutional money they are required to place, may help to diminish the sense of panic that a vision of reality might impose. On the
Chapter Alternatives to Oil = ‘Derivatives of oil’ The Endangered US Dollar, by Richard Heinberg, author of The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies (2003), and Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World (2004), in his MuseLetter # 149, August 2004 See also Bibliography Primary Sources Richard Heinberg 90 The Second Great Depression : Causes & Responses: The Financial Consequences of Peak Oil, by Colin J. Campbell. Published on 2 May 2005 by ASPO. Archived on 4 May 2005. 88 89
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35 other hand, the very momentum of the flow may cause a greater deluge when the foundations of the dam finally crumble. It is a situation without precedent.
Commentator Robert Wise explains the connection between energy and money as follows:91 It's not physics, but it's true: money equals energy. Real, liquid wealth represents usable energy. It can be exchanged for fuel, for work, or for something built by the work of humans or fuel-powered machines. Real cost reflects the energy cost of doing something; real value reflects the energy expended to build something. Nearly all the work done in the world economy -- all the manufacturing, construction, and transportation - is done with energy derived from fuel. The actual work done by human muscle power is miniscule by comparison. And, the lion's share of that fuel comes from oil and natural gas, the primary sources of the world's wealth.
In October 2005, the normally conservative London Times acknowledged that the world's wealth might soon evaporate as we enter a technological and economic "Dark Age." In an article entitled "Waiting for the Lights to Go Out"92 Times reporter Bryan Appleyard wrote the following: [A] We've taken the past 200 years of prosperity for granted. Humanity's progress is stalling, we are facing a new era of decay, and nobody is clever enough to fix it. Is the future really that black? The greatest getting-and-spending spree in the history of the world is about to end. The 200-year boom that gave citizens of the industrial world levels of wealth, health and longevity beyond anything previously known to humanity is threatened on every side. Oil is running out; the climate is changing at a potentially catastrophic rate; wars over scarce resources are brewing; finally, most shocking of all, we don't seem to be having enough ideas about how to fix any of these things. ‘In Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update, Dennis Meadows reports that humanity is no longer just in danger of colliding against its limits; it's on the brink of actually overshooting those limits, with potentially disastrous consequences. In other words, we are not only reaching peaks in production of essential resources such as energy and food, we may be on the verge of permanently destroying our ability to produce those resources.’ – The Most Powerful Force on Earth, by Martin Weiss, 19 June 2006, Editor, Safe Money Report & Money and Markets, (FinancialSenseOnline)
Almost daily, new evidence is emerging that progress can no longer be taken for granted, that a new Dark Age is lying in wait for ourselves and our children. . . . growth may be coming to an end. Since our entire financial order — interest rates, pension funds, insurance, stock markets — is predicated on growth, the social and economic consequences may be cataclysmic.
If you want to understand just how cataclysmic these consequences might be, consider the current crisis in the UK as a "preview of coming attractions." On October 23, 2005 the London Telegraph reported:93 [A]
The Government has admitted that companies across Britain might be forced to close this winter because of fuel shortages. "The balance between supply and demand for energy is uncomfortably tight. I think if we have a colder -than-usual winter given the supply shortages, certain industries could suffer real difficulties." The admission was made after this newspaper revealed that Britain could be paralysed by energy shortages if the winter is colder than average.
91
Connecting the Dots: Energy and the Economy, by: Robert Wise, Democrats US, Online Think Tank for Democrats. Robert Wise is a software engineer from Merritt Island, Florida. He is also a doctoral candidate in Geography. 92 Sunday Times, UK: Waiting for the lights to go out, by Bryan Appleyard, Magazine, October 16, 2005 93 Fuel crisis might shut industry, admits minister, By Roya Nikkhah and Melissa Kite, (Filed: 23/10/2005), London Telegraph: “The Government has admitted that companies across Britain might be forced to close this winter because of fuel shortages.”
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36 The Met Office says there is a 67 per cent likelihood of prolonged cold this year after almost a decade of mild winters. That, coupled with high fuel prices, raises the fear that industry will not be able to cope.
The severe consequences of these relatively small shortfalls between supply and demand (less than 5%) have prompted the UK government to look into draconian energy conservation measures that would be enforced via house-to-house searches by a force of "energy-police."94 [A] Parts of the US are facing similarly dire possibilities. In December 2005, US News and World Report published a six-page article documenting some potentially nightmarish scenarios about to descend on the US. According to the normally conservative publication, people in the northeastern US could be facing massive layoffs, rotating blackouts, permanent industrial shutdowns, and catastrophic breakdowns in public services this winter as a result of shortages of heating oil and natural gas. [A] This is happening despite the fact we are probably at least a few years away from seeing the peak in either oil or natural gas production. You have to ask yourself, "what's going to happen when the 'real problems' start showing up?" [A]
Are the Banks Aware of this Situation? The central ones certainly are. On June 28, 2005, Gary Duncan, the economics editor for the UK based Sunday Times, reported that the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), "the central banker's central bank", had issued the following warnings95 regarding the economic fallout of further rises in the price of oil: [A] Oil prices may well remain high for a prolonged period of time . . . Further rises — if they materialize — may have more severe consequences than currently anticipated. . Everyone needs to commit to some unpleasant compromises now, in order to avoid even more unpleasant alternatives in the future . . .
Duncan goes on to summarize the bank's report as follows:96 [A] The US current account deficit meant that a further slide in the dollar was "almost inevitable", while the BIS sounded a warning that the deficit could yet lead to "a disorderly decline of the dollar, associated turmoil in other financial markets, and even recession."
A bank as crucially important to the world economy and as influential to the markets as the BIS doesn’t just casually toss out terms like "unpleasant compromises", "severe consequences", "even more unpleasant alternatives", "turmoil," and "disorderly decline" in relation to the oil markets and the dollar97
94
Put that light out! Now Prescott plans to send in the 'energy police' to make us go green, by Melissa Kite, Deputy Political Editor, London Telegraph, (Filed: 18/09/2005): “'Energy wardens' will police homes and offices to ensure that they do not waste gas and electricity under a radical plan being considered by John Prescott…” 95 The Times of London: BIS sounds alarm as oil price sets another record, by Gary Duncan, Economics Editor, June 28, 2005. 96 The Times of London: BIS sounds alarm as oil price sets another record, by Gary Duncan, Economics Editor, June 28, 2005. 97 Bank for International Settlements: The 75th Annual General Meeting. AGM 2005 Report Overview or Full Text. President's speech by Nout Wellink, President of the BIS and Chairman of the Board of Directors in English. Activities of the Bank: the year 2004-05 in review delivered by Malcolm Knight, General Manager of the BIS.
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37 (which is the reserve currency for all oil transactions in the in the background. [A]
world)98
unless something very nasty is brewing
On a similar note, Warren Buffet, the world's second richest man, recently warned of "megacatastrophic risks" and "investment time bombs"99 currently threatening the global economy. Add those to a mix of sky-high energy prices;100 destabilizing resource wars,101 a possible currency collapse,102 more "petrodollar warfare",103 and well, the picture begins to look pretty grim, pretty quick. [A]
Conclusions: "What Does All of This Mean?" What all of this means, in short, is that the aftermath of Peak Oil will extend far beyond, how much you will pay for gas.104 If you are focusing solely on the price at the pump, more fuel-efficient forms of transportation, or alternative sources of energy, you aren’t seeing the bigger picture. [A] Oilman ends with: When you finally realize how pervasive it (oil) is in our everyday lives, you will begin to understand exactly how much the human race must change in order to do without it. Hopefully, you have now removed your head from the sand and begun to think for yourself about the real magnitude of the crisis our children are facing.
[A]_See Bibliography Primary Source Matt Savinar & LifeAfterTheOilCrash.net [C]_See Bibliography PrimarySource Richard Heinberg Museletter: George W. Bush & Peak Oil: Beyond Incompetence [B]_See Bibliography Primary Source FTW Dale Allen Pfeifer Eating Fossil Fuels
Pressures Driving Down the US Dollar: The Rise of the Euro, by MapleLeafWeb. “The war in Iraq, the strength of the Euro, and the state of the American economy all play roles in the valuing the US dollar. A number of external factors are combining to put pressure on the US Dollar:” 99 Buffett warns on investment 'time bomb', BBC News International, 4 March 2003: “The rapidly growing trade in derivatives poses a "mega-catastrophic risk" for the economy and most shares are still "too expensive", legendary investor Warren Buffett has warned,” calling derivatives, “Contracts devised by madmen.” 100 $380 Oil? Banks Talk Oil Depletion, by Michael Kane, FTW. [includes reference to Goldman Sachs Report and Ixis-CIB Investment Bank Report as reported at "Will oil strike $380 a barrel by 2015?" by Adam Porter, Aljazeera.net, 4/21/05,] 101 The Struggle for Iraq: In Depth, by BBC News 102 Dissident Voice: The Economic Tsunami: Sooner Than You Think, by Mike Whitney, April 11, 2005: 103 Petro Dollar Warfare: Dollars, Euros and the Upcoming Iranian Oil Bourse, by William Clark, August 8, 2005. 104 The Long Fingers of Petroleum, by Oilman, 15 Mar 2005 by Independence Journal. 98
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38
18 July 2006_PeakOil_RSA_Briefing Paper
IV. WHAT ABOUT ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF ENERGY?
What about the various alternatives to oil? Cant we find replacements? What about green alternatives like solar, wind, wave and geothermal? What about the Hydrogen Economy? What about Nuclear Energy? What about biofuels like biodiesel and ethanol? What about using coal to make synthetic oil? Can’t we use a combination of alternative technologies? What about amazing new technologies such as thermal depolymerization, solar- nanotechnology, space based solar arrays, and other 'energy-miracles'?" What about hybrids and super fuel-efficient vehicles? What about large-scale efforts at conserving energy and becoming more energy efficient?
ANSWER: ALTERNATIVES TO OIL = ‘DERIVATIVES’ OF OIL Much of our existing technology simply won't work without an abundant underlying fossil fuel base.[A]
Footprints: National Geographic Satellite Images Reveal A Deeper Truth About the Industrialized and Mankind, by Dale Allen Pfeiffer
Fossil fuels allowed us to operate highly complex systems at gigantic scales. Renewables are simply incompatible in this context and the new fuels and technologies required would simply take a lot more time to develop than available and require access to abundant supplies of cheap fossil fuels, putting the industrial adventure out of business. [A] Many politicians and economists insist that there are alternatives to oil and that we can "invent our way out of this."[A] Physicists105 and geologists106 tell us an entirely different story.107[A]
105 106 107
http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html http://www.hubbertpeak.com/youngquist/altenergy.htm LifeAfterTheOilCrash: Alternatives to Oil are Derivatives of Oil
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39 fantasies,108
The politicians and economists are selling us 30-year old economic and political while the physicists and geologists are telling us scientific and mathematical truth. Rather than accept the hightech myths109 proposed by the politicians and economists, its time for you to start asking critical questions about the so-called "alternatives to oil"110 and facing some hard truths about energy.111[A] While there are many technologically viable alternatives to oil, there are none (or combination thereof) that can supply us with anywhere near the amount of net-energy required by our modern monetary system and industrial infrastructure.[A] People tend to think of alternatives to oil as somehow independent from oil. In reality, the alternatives to oil are more accurately described as "derivatives of oil." It takes massive amounts of oil and other scarce resources to locate and mine the raw materials (silver, copper, platinum, uranium, etc.) necessary to build solar panels, windmills, and nuclear power plants. It takes more oil to construct these alternatives and even more oil to distribute them, maintain them, and adapt current infrastructure to run on them.[A] Each of the alternatives is besieged by numerous fundamental physical shortcomings that have, thus far, received little attention.[A] In addition, physicist Jonathan Huebner has concluded in The History of Science and Technology that the rate of innovation peaked in 1873, and our current rate of innovation is about the same as it was in 1600. According to Huebner, by 2024 it will have slumped to the same level as it was in the Dark Ages. Hence, without sufficient innovation and a comfortable surplus of fossil fuels, to power the transfer to renewables, we may simply lack the tools to move forward. [A]
What about the various alternatives to oil? Can't we find replacements? [A] Many politicians and economists insist that there are alternatives to oil and that we can "invent our way out of this." Physicists and geologists tell us an entirely different story. The politicians and economists are selling us 30-year old economic and political fantasies, while the physicists and geologists are telling us scientific and mathematical truth. Rather than accept the hightech myths proposed by the politicians and economists, its time for you to start asking critical questions about the so called "alternatives to oil" and facing some hard truths about energy. While there are many technologically viable alternatives to oil, there are none (or combination thereof) that can supply us with anywhere near the amount of net-energy required by our modern monetary system and industrial infrastructure. People tend to think of alternatives to oil as somehow independent from oil. In reality, the alternatives to oil are more accurately described as "derivatives of oil." It takes massive amounts of oil and other scarce resources to locate and mine the raw materials (silver, copper, platinum, uranium, etc.) necessary to build solar panels, windmills, and nuclear power plants. It takes more oil to construct these alternatives and even more oil to distribute them, maintain them, and adapt current infrastructure to run on them.
108 109 110 111
http://www.energybulletin.net/1181.html http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/081803_hydrogen_answers.html http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/052703_9_questions.html http://www.energybulletin.net/newswire.php?id=624
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40 Each of the alternatives is besieged by numerous fundamental physical shortcomings that have, thus far, received little attention:
What about green alternatives like solar, wind, wave, and geothermal? [A] Solar and wind power suffer from four fundamental physical shortcomings that prevent them from ever being able to replace more than a tiny fraction of the energy we get from oil: lack of energy density, inappropriateness as transportation fuels, energy intermittency, and inability to scale. I. Lack of Energy Density/Inability to Scale: Few people realize how much energy is concentrated in even a small amount of oil or gas. A barrel of oil contains the energy-equivalent of almost 25,000 hours of human labor. A single gallon of gasoline contains the energy-equivalent of 500 hours of human labor. Most people are stunned to find this out, even after confirming the accuracy of the numbers for themselves, but it makes sense when you think about it. It only takes one gallon of gasoline to propel a three ton SUV 10 miles in 10 minutes. How long would it take you to push a three ton SUV 10 miles? Most people drastically overestimate the density and scalability of solar, wind, and other renewables. Some examples should help illustrate the limited capacity of these energy sources as compared to fossil fuels: [1] According to author Paul Driessen, it would take all of California's 13,000 wind turbines to generate as much electricity as a single 555-megawatt natural gas fired power plant. According to the European Wind Energy Association's Wind Force 12 report issued in May of 2004, the United States has 6,361 megawatts of installed wind energy. This means that if every wind turbine in the United States was spinning at peak capacity, all at the exact same time, their combined electrical output would equal that of six coal fired power plants. Since wind turbines typically operate at about 30% of their 3.rated capacity, the combined output of every wind turbine in the US is actually equal to less than two coal fired power plants. The numbers for solar are ever poorer. For instance, on 191 of his book The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World, author Paul Roberts writes: " . . . if you add up all the solar photovoltaic cells now running worldwide (2004), the
combined output - around 2,000 megawatts - barely rivals the output of two coal-fired power plants." Robert's calculation assumes the solar cells are operating at 100% of their capacity. In the real world, the average solar cell operates at about 20% of its rated capacity. This means that the combined output of all the solar cells in the world is equal to less than 2.40% of the output of a single coal fired power plant. [2] According to ExxonMobil, the amount of energy distributed by a single gas station in a single day is equivalent to the amount of energy that would be produced by four Manhattan sized city blocks of solar equipment. With 17,000 gas stations just in the United States, you don't need to be a mathematician to realize that 4.solar power is incapable of meeting our urgent need for a new energy source that - like oil - is dense, affordable, and transportable. [3] According to Dr. David Goodstien, professor of physics, at Cal Tech University, it would take close to 220,000 5.square kilometers of solar panels to power the global economy via solar power. This may sound like a marginally manageable number until you realize that the
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
41 total acreage covered by solar panels in the entire world right now is a paltry 10 square kilometers. [4] According a recent MSNBC article entitled, "Solar Power City Offers 20 Years of Lessons: "By industry estimates, up to 20,000 solar electricity units and 100,000 heaters have been installed in the United States — diminutive numbers compared to the country’s 70 million single-family houses. This means that even if the number of American households equipped with solar electricity is increased by a factor of 100, less than two million American households will be equipped with solar electric systems. Assuming we are even capable of scaling the use of household solar electric systems by that huge a factor, we must ask ourselves two questions: [a] What do the other 68 million households do? What about the millions of companies, nations, and industries around the world on which we in the industrialized world are dependent? [b] Since oil, not electricity, is our primary transportation fuel (providing the base for over 90% of all transportation fuel) what good will this do us when it comes to keeping our global network of cars,trucks, airplanes, and boats going? II. Energy Intermittency Unlike an oil pump, which can pump all day and all night under most weather conditions, or coal fired/natural gas fired power plants which can also operate 24/7, wind turbines and solar cells only produce energy at certain times or under certain conditions. This may not be that big of a deal if you simply want to power your household appliances or a small scale, decentralized economy, but if you want to run an industrial economy that relies on airports, airplanes, 18-wheel trucks, millions of miles of highways, huge skyscrapers, 24/7 availability of fuel, etc., an intermittent source of energy will not suffice. While promising work is being done to counteract the intermittency of wind and solar energy, most of this work is still in the developmental stage and won't be ready or cost effective on a large scale for several decades at the earliest. Without a cost-effective and scalable storage technology to provide power when the wind is not blowing or the sun is not shining, large scale solar/wind farms must be backed up by things like oil pumps or natural gas/coal fired powered plants. For this reason, the expansion of renewables like wind power actually requires an expansion in the supply of fossil fuels. Journalist Michael Kane writes:
Europe is light-years ahead of America in wind energy, and Germany leads the world. The German numbers are painting a dismal picture for wind’s capacity. E.ON Netz – one of the world’s largest private energy providers – owns over 40% of Germany’s wind generating capacity. They released a report titled "WIND REPORT 2004" stating that wind energy require "shadow stations" of traditional energy on back-up reserve in case the wind forecast is wrong. They state that reserve capacity needs to be 60% to 80% of the total wind capacity! So as more wind comes on line, it is all but certain that more hydrocarbon reserve capacity will be required, further demonstrating how renewable energy is used to supplement overconsumption. Here is the real kicker: these shadow stations cannot just be turned on and off at will. In order to be ready to produce electricity when the wind is not blowing or the sun is not shining, they must be fed a constant supply of natural gas or coal. III. Inappropriateness as Transportation Fuels:
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
42 Approximately 2/3 of our oil supply is used for transportation. Over ninety percent of our transportation fuel comes from petroleum fuels (gasoline, diesel, jet-fuel). Thus, even if you ignore the challenges catalogued above, there is still the problem of how to use the electricity generated by the solar cells or wind turbines to run fleets of food delivery trucks, oceanliners, airplanes, etc. Unfortunately, solar and wind cannot be used as industrial-scale transportation fuels unless they are used to crack hydrogen from water via electrolysis. Hydrogen produced via electrolysis is great for small scale, village level, and/or experimental projects. However, in order to power a significant portion of the global industrial economy on it, we would need the following: [1] Hundreds of trillions of dollars to construct fleets of hydrogen powered cars, trucks, boats, and airplanes. [2] Hundreds, if not thousands, of oil-powered factories to accomplish number one. [3] The construction of a ridiculously expensive global refueling and maintenance network for number one. [4] Mind-boggingly huge amounts of platinum, silver, and copper, and other raw materials that have already entered permanent states of scarcity. IV. Painfully Low Starting Point: Finally, most people new to this issue drastically overestimate the amount of energy we will be able to realistically derive from these sources inside of the next 5-25 years. If the previous examples didn't convince you that solar and wind are incapable of replacing oil and gas on more than a small scale/supplemental level, consider the following, easily verifiable facts: In 2003, the US consumed 98 quadrillion BTU's of energy. A whopping 0.171 quadrillion came from solar and wind combined. Do the math (0.171/98) and you will see that a total of less then one-sixth of one percent of our energy appetite was satisfied with solar and wind combined. Thus, just to derive a paltry 2-3 percent of our current energy needs from solar and wind, we would need to double the percentage of our energy supply derived from solar/wind, then double it again, then double it again, and then double it yet again. Unfortunately, the odds of us upscaling our use of solar and wind to the point where they provide even just 2-3 percent of our total energy supply are about the same as the odds of Michael Moore and Dick Cheney teaming up to win a 5K relay race. Despite jaw-dropping levels of growth in these industries, coupled with practically miraculous drops in price per kilowatt hour (95% drop in two decades), along with increased interest from the public in alternative energies, the percentage of our total energy supply derived from solar and wind is projected to grow by only 10 percent per year. Since we are starting with only one-sixth of one percent of our energy coming from solar and wind, a growth rate of 10 percent per year isn't going to do much to soften a national economic meltdown. Twenty-five years from now, we will be lucky if solar and wind account for one percent of our total energy supply. While other alternative energy sources, such as wave and geothermal power, are fantastic sources of energy in and of themselves, they are incapable of replacing more than a fraction of our petroleum usage for the same reasons as solar and wind: they are nowhere near as energy dense as petroleum and they are inappropriate as transportation fuels. In addition, they are also limited by geography - wave power is only technically viable in coastal locations. Only a handful of nations, such as Iceland, have access to enough geothermal power to make up for much of their petroleum consumption. This is by no means reason not to invest in these alternatives. We simply have to be realistic about what they can and can't do. On a household or village scale, they are certainly worthy investments. But to
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
43 hope/expect they are going to power more than a small fraction of our forty-five trillion dollar per year (and growing) global industrial economy is woefully unrealistic. On a related note, even if solar, wind, and other green alternatives could replace oil, we still wouldn't escape the evil clutches of so called "Big Oil." The biggest maker of solar panels is British Petroleum with Shell not too far behind. Similarly, the second biggest maker of wind turbines is General Electric, who obtained their wind turbine business from that stalwart of corporate social responsibility, Enron. As these examples illustrate, the notion that "Big Oil is scared of the immerging renewable energy market!" is silly. "Big Oil" already owns the renewable energy market.
What about the hydrogen economy? [A] Hydrogen isn't the answer either. As of 2003, the average hydrogen fuel cell costs close to $1,000,000. Unlike other alternatives, hydrogen fuel cells have shown little sign of coming down in price. Unfortunately, hydrogen and/or hydrogen fuel cells will never power more than a handful of cars due to the following reasons: I. Astronomical Cost of Fuel Cells With the fuel cell powered cars themselves costing $1,000,000 a piece, replacing 210 million cars (about 1/4 of the world's fleet) with fuel cell powered cars is going to cost $210,000,000,000,000 (two-hundred and ten trillion dollars). Furthermore, as a recent article in EV World points out, the average fuel cell lasts only 200 hours. Two hundred hours translates into just 12,000 miles, or about one year’s worth of driving at 60 miles per hour. That's not much of a deal for a car with a million-dollar price tag. That doesn't even begin to address the cost of replacing a significant portion of the millions upon millions of oil-powered airplanes, boats, trucks, tractors, trailers, etc., with fuel cells nor the construction of a worldwide system to maintain all of these new technologies. II. Platinum Supply A single hydrogen fuel cell requires approximately 20-50 grams of platinum. Let's say we want to replace 1/4 of the world's petroleum powered cars with hydrogen fuel cell powered cars. Twenty-to-fifty grams of platinum per fuel cell x 210 million fuel cells equals between 4.2 billion and 10.5 billion grams of platinum required for the conversion. Unfortunately, world platinum production is currently at only about 240 million grams per year, most of which is already earmarked for thousands of indispensable industrial processes. If the hydrogen economy was anything other than a total red herring, such issues would eventually arise as 80 percent of the world’s proven platinum reserves are located in that bastion of geopolitical stability, South Africa. Even if an economically affordable and scalable alternative to platinum is immediately located and mined in absolutely massive quantities, the ability of hydrogen to replace even a small portion of our oil consumption is still handicapped by several fundamental limitations, some of which are detailed below. NASA, which fuels the space shuttle with hydrogen, may be able to afford to get around the following challenges, but there is a big difference between launching a single space shuttle and running a global economy with a voracious and constantly growing appetite for energy. III. Inability to Store Massive Quantities at Low Cost: Hydrogen is the smallest element known to man. This makes it virtually impossible to store in the massive quantities and to transport across the incredibly long distances at the low costs required by our
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
44 vast global transportation networks. In her February 2005 article entitled "Hydrogen Economy: Energy and Economic Blackhole," Alice Friedemann writes:
Hydrogen is the Houdini of elements. As soon as you’ve gotten it into a container, it wants to get out, and since it’s the lightest of all gases, it takes a lot of effort to keep it from escaping. Storage devices need a complex set of seals, gaskets, and valves. Liquid hydrogen tanks for vehicles boil off at 3-4% per day. While some research into hydrogen storage technologies looks promising, it is still in the experimental stages and decades (at the earliest) from being ready to scale on an industrial level. IV. Massive Cost of Hydrogen Infrastructure: A hydrogen economy would require massive retrofitting of our entire global transportation and fuel distribution networks. At a million dollars per car, it would cost $350,000,000,000,000 to replace half of our current automotive fleet (700 million cars world wide) with hydrogen fuel cell powered cars. That doesn't even account for replacing a significant fraction of our oil-powered airplanes or boats with fuel cells. The numbers don't get any prettier if we scrap the fuel cells and go with straight hydrogen. According to a recent article in Nature, entitled "Hydrogen Economy Looks Out of Reach:"
Converting every vehicle in the United States to hydrogen power would demand so much electricity that the country would need enough wind turbines to cover half of California or 1,000 extra nuclear power stations. Unfortunately, even if we managed to get this ridiculously high number of wind turbines or nuclear power plants built, we would still need to build the hydrogen powered cars, in addition to a hydrogen distribution network that would be mind-boggingly expensive. The construction of a hydrogen pipeline network comparable to our current natural gas pipeline network, for instance, would cost 200 trillion dollars. That's twenty times the size of the US GDP in the year 2002. How such capital intensive endeavors will be completed in the midst of massive energy shortages is anybody's guess. V. Hydrogen's "Energy Sink" Factor: As mentioned previously, solar, wind, or nuclear energy can be used to "crack" hydrogen from water via a process known as electrolysis. The electrolysis process is a simple one, but unfortunately it consumes more energy than it produces. This has nothing to do with the costs and everything to do with the immutable laws of thermodynamics. Again, Alice Friedemann weighs in:
The laws of physics mean the hydrogen economy will always be an energy sink. Hydrogen’s properties require you to spend more energy to do the following than you get out of it later: overcome waters’ hydrogen-oxygen bond, to move heavy cars, to prevent leaks and brittle metals, to transport hydrogen to the destination. It doesn’t matter if all of the problems are solved, or how much money is spent. You will use more energy to create, store, and transport hydrogen than you will ever get out of it. Even if these problems are ignored or assumed away, you are still faced with jaw-dropping costs of a renewable derived hydrogen economy. In addition to the 200 trillion dollar pipeline network that would be necessary to move the hydrogen around, we would need to deploy about 40 trillion dollars of solar panels. If the hydrogen was derived from wind (which is usually more efficient than solar) the cost might be lowered considerably, but that's not saying much when you are dealing with numbers as large as $40 trillion.
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
45 As far as how much you as the consumer would pay for hydrogen fuel derived from renewable resources, Joseph Romm, author of The Hype About Hydrogen, estimates you will have to pay $10-$20 per gallon of gasoline equivalent. That's assuming you can even find a renewable-hydrogen filling station. Even if the costs of these projects are cut in half, that makes little difference over the course of a generation, as our economy doubles in size approximately every 25-30 years. In other words, by the time we will have made any real headway in constructing a "hydrogen economy", the problem will have already compounded itself. If the "hydrogen economy" is such a hoax, why then do we hear so much about it? The answer is simple when you "follow the money" and ask "who benefits?" (Hint: GM, Shell, et al.)
What about nuclear energy? [A] Nuclear energy requires uranium, which is problematic because as David Petch explains in his article "Peak Oil and You", even in the most optimistic scenarios, uranium will soon be in short supply:
Figure 2 (shown in original article) illustrates the different projections of uranium depletion, pending an increase in annual consumption rates of 3%, 5% or 8%. Currently, uranium production falls incredibly short of the demand. As oil resources become scarce, uranium will have more pressure put upon it as a resource. All three different scenarios have a similar course until around 2013, where they part trails. By 2020, there is a serious uranium shortage. Let's assume a Pollyanna position and assume that uranium deposits can be doubled up in the coming decade. Figure 3 illustrates the 3 different scenarios, depending on the net increase in consumption per year. Rather than 2013 being a focal year, it is stretched out by 3 years to 2016. Uranium supply issues aside, nuclear energy (like solar and wind) is not an economically or energetically feasible transportation fuel. Put simply, you can't power your car with a nuclear reactor in the trunk. Even if these problems are assumed away, a large scale switch over to nuclear power is still not going to do all that much to solve our problems due to the cost and time frames involved in the of construction of nuclear power plants. It would take 10,000 of the largest nuclear power plants to produce the energy we get from fossil fuels. At $3-5 billion per plant, it's not long before we're talking about "real money" especially since the $3-5 billion doesn't even include the cost of decommissioning old reactors, converting the nuclear generated energy into a fuel source appropriate for cars, boats, trucks, airplanes, and the not-so-minor problem of handling nuclear waste. Speaking of nuclear waste, it is a question nobody has quite answered yet. This is especially the case in countries such as China and Russia, where safety protocols are unlikely to be strictly adhered to if the surrounding economy is in the midst of a desperate energy shortage. It may also be true in the case of the US because, as James Kunstler points out in his recent book, The Long Emergency:
. . . reactors may be beyond the organizational means of the society we are apt to become in the future, mainly one with much weaker central authority, less police power, and reduced financial resources . . . in the absence of that (cheap) oil we can't assume the complex social organization needed to run nuclear energy safely. Assuming we find answers to all questions regarding the cost and safety of nuclear power, we are still left with the most vexing question of all:
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
46
Where are we going to get the massive amounts of oil necessary to build hundreds, if not thousands, of these reactors, especially since they take 10 or so years to build and we won't get motivated to build them until after oil supplies have reached a point of permanent scarcity? Remember, once we get the reactors built, we still have the not-so-inexpensive task of retrofitting a significant portion of the following to run on nuclear-derived electricity: [1] 700 million oil-powered cars traversing the world's roads; [2] Millions of oil-powered airplanes crisscrossing the world's skies; [3] Millions of oil-powered boats circumnavigating the world's oceans.
Scientists have made some progress in regards to nuclear fusion, but the road from success in tabletop laboratory experiments to use as an industrial scale replacement for oil is an extremely long one that, even in the most favorable of circumstances, will take decades to traverse. Again, as with other alternatives to petroleum, all forms of nuclear energy should certainly "be on the table." But if you're hoping that it's going to save you from the ramifications of Peak Oil, you are sorely mistaken.
What about biofuels such as biodiesel and ethanol? [A] Biofuels such as biodiesel, ethanol, methanol etc. are great, but only in small doses. Biofuels are all grown with massive fossil fuel inputs (pesticides and fertilizers) and suffer from horribly low, sometimes negative, EROEIs. The production of ethanol, for instance, requires six units of energy to produce just one. That means it consumes more energy than it produces and thus will only serve to compound our energy deficit. In addition, there is the problem of where to grow the stuff, as we are rapidly running out of arable land on which to grow food, let alone fuel. This is no small problem as the amount of land it takes to grow even a small amount of biofuel is quite staggering. As journalist Lee Dye points out in a July 2004 article entitled "Old Policies Make Shift From Foreign Oil Tough:"
. . . relying on corn for our future energy needs would devastate the nation's food production. It takes 11 acres to grow enough corn to fuel one automobile with ethanol for 10,000 miles, or about a year's driving, Pimentel says. That's the amount of land needed to feed seven persons for the same period of time. And if we decided to power all of our automobiles with ethanol, we would need to cover 97 percent of our land with corn, he adds. Biodiesel is considerably better than ethanol, (and probably the best of the biofuels) but with an EROEI of three, it still doesn't compare to oil, which has had an EROEI of about 30. While any significant attempt to switch to biofuels will work out great for giant agribusiness companies (political campaign contributors) such as Archer Daniels Midland, ConAgra, and Monsanto, it won't do much to solve a permanent energy crisis for you. The ghoulish reality is that if we wanted to replace even a small part of our oil supply with farm grown biofuels, we would need to turn most of Africa into a giant biofuel farm, an idea that is currently gaining traction in some circles. Obviously many Africans - who are already starving - would not take kindly to us appropriating the land they use to grow their food to grow our fuel. As journalist George Monbiot points out, such an endeavor would be a humanitarian disaster.
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
47 Some folks are doing research into alternatives to soybeans such as biodiesel producing pools of algae. As with every other project that promises to "replace all petroleum fuels," this project has yet to produce a single drop of commercially available fuel. This hasn't prevented many of its most vocal proponents from insisting that algae grown biodiesel will solve our energy problems. The same is true for other, equally ambitious plans such as using recycled farm waste, switchgrass, etc. These projects all look great on paper or in the laboratory. Some of them may even end up providing a small amount of commercially available energy at some undetermined point in the future. However, in the context of our colossal demand for petroleum and the small amount of time we have remaining before the peak, these projects can't be expected to be more than a "drop in the bucket." Tragically, many well-meaing people attempting to develop solutions don't even understand this. As Dr. Ted Trainer explains in a recent article on the thermodynamic limitations of biomass fuels:
This is why I do not believe consumer-capitalist society can save itself. Not even its "intellectual" classes or green leadership give any sign that this society has the wit or the will to even think about the basic situation we are in. As the above figures make clear, the situation cannot be solved without huge reduction in the volume of production and consumption going on. The current craze surrounding biodiesel is a good example of what Dr. Trainer is talking about. While folks who have converted their personal vehicles to run on vegetable oil should certainly be given credit for their noble attempts at reducing our reliance on petroleum, the long-term viability of their efforts is questionable at best. Once our system of food production collapses due to the effects of Peak Oil, vegetable oil will likely become far too precious/expensive a commodity to be burned as transportation fuel for anybody but the super-rich. As James Kunstler points out in an April 2005 update to his blog "Cluster Fuck Nation", many biodiesel enthusiasts are dangerously clueless as to this reality:
Over in Vermont last week, I ran into a gang of biodiesel enthusiasts. They were earnest, forward-looking guys who would like to do some good for their country. But their expectations struck me as fairly crazy, and in a way typical of the bad thinking at all levels of our society these days. For instance, I asked if it had ever occurred to them that biodiesel crops would have to compete for farmland that would be needed otherwise to grow feed crops for working animals. No, it hadn't. (And it seemed like a far-out suggestion to them.) Their expectation seemed to be that the future would run a lot like the present, that bio-diesel was just another ingenious, innovative, high-tech module that we can "drop into" our existing system in place of the previous, obsolete module of regular oil. Kunstler goes on to explain that when policies or living/working arrangements are set up around such unexamined expectations, the result is usually a dangerous deepening of our reliance on cheap energy and "easy motoring." Biodiesel advocates can get downright nasty when somebody points out any of the above described limitations of their favorite fuel. For instance, in a December 2005 article entitled, "The Most Destructive Crop on Earth No Solution to the Energy Crisis," well known progressive journalist George Monbiot, recounted his experiences attempting to point out the limits of biodiesel:
The last time I drew attention to the hazards of making diesel fuel from vegetable oils, I received as much abuse as I have ever been sent for my stance on the Iraq war. The biodiesel missionaries, I discovered, are as vociferous in their denial as the executives of Exxon. If biofuels such as biodiesel and ethanol are such poor substitutes for oil, why then do you hear about them so much? The answer becomes obvious once you follow the money: the vast majority of the
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
48 biofuels produced in this country are (as mentioned earlier) produced by giant agribusiness conglomerates such as Archer Daneiles Midland. Investigative reporter Mike Ruppert points out:
Archer Daniels Midland laughs all the way to the bank. With a price to earnings (P/E) ratio of 17:1, every dollar of net profit thrown into their coffers by politicians or investment advisors selling the snake oil of alternative fuels generates $17 in stock value which ADM will happily sell off before all markets succumb to Peak Oil. That $17 came out of your pocket whether you invested or not.
What about using coal to make synthetic oil? [A] Coal can be used to make synthetic oil via a process known as gasification. Unfortunately, synthetic oil will be unable to do all that much to soften the coming energy crash for the following reasons: I. Insufficiency of Supply/"Peak Coal": The coal supply is not as great as many assume. According to a July 2004 article published by the American Institute of Physics:
If demand remains frozen at the current rate of consumption, the coal reserve will indeed last roughly 250 years. That prediction assumes equal use of all grades of coal, from anthracite to lignite. Population growth alone reduces the calculated lifetime to some 90-120 years. Any new uses of coal would further reduce the supply. . . .The use of coal for conversion to other fuels would quickly reduce the lifetime of the US coal base to less than a human lifespan . Even a 50-75 year supply of coal is not as much as it sounds because coal production, like oil production, will peak long before the total supply is exhausted. Were we to liquefy a large portion of our coal endowment in order to produce synthetic oil, coal production would likely peak within 2 decades. II. Falling "Energy Profit Ratio": As John Gever explains in his book, Beyond Oil: The Threat to Food and Fuel in Coming Decades , the production of coal will be in energy-loser within a few decades:
. . . the energy profit ratio for coal slips to 20 in 1977, comparable to that of domestic petroleum. While an energy profit ratio of 20 means that only 5 percent of coal's gross energy is needed to obtain it, the sharp decline since 1967 is alarming. If it continues to drop at this rate, the energy profit ratio of coal will slide to 0.5 by 2040. In other words, with an EPR of 0.5, it will take twice as much energy to produce the coal than the coal actually contains. It will thus be of no use to us as an energy source. III. Issue of Scale and Environmental Catastrophe: The environmental consequences of a huge increase in coal production would be truly catastrophic. Caltech physics professor Dr. David Goodstein explains:
We use now about twice as much energy from oil as we do from coal, so if you wanted to mine enough coal to replace the missing oil, you’d have to mine it at a much higher rate, not only to replace the oil, but also because the conversion process to oil is extremely inefficient. You’d have to mine it at levels at least five times beyond those we mine now—a coal-mining industry on an absolutely unimaginable scale. In his book, Out of Gas:The End of the Oil Age, Dr. Goodstein tells us that a large scale switch to coal could produce such severe global warming that life on planet Earth would cease to exist
Can't we use a combination of alternatives to replace oil? [A] * JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
49 Absolutely. Despite their individual shortcomings, it is still possible for the world economy to run on a basket of alternative sources of energy - so long as we immediately get all of the following: [1] A few dozen technological breakthroughs; [2] Unprecedented political will and bipartisan cooperation; [3] Tremendous international collaboration; [4] Massive amounts of investment capital; [5] Fundamental reforms to the banking system; [6] No interference from the oil-and-gas industries; [7] About 25-50 years of general peace and prosperity to retrofit the world's $45 trillion dollar per year economy, including transportation and telecommunication networks, manufacturing industries, agricultural systems, universities, hospitals, etc. , to run on these new sources of energy. [8] A generation of engineers, scientists, and economists trained to run a global economy powered by new sources of energy. [9] Rational elected officials and capable government appointees to manage the generation long transition. If we get all of the above, we might be able to get the energy equivalent of 3-5 billion barrels of oil per year from alternative sources. That's a tremendous amount of oil - about as much as the entire world used per year during the 1950s, but it's nowhere near enough to keep our currently mammoth-sized yet highly volatile global economic system going. The world currently requires over 30 billion barrels/1.2 trillion gallons of oil per year to support economic growth. That requirement will only increase as time goes on due to population growth, debt servicing, and the industrialization of nations such as China and India. So even if the delusionally optimistic 8-step scenario described above is somehow miraculously manifested, we're still facing a 70-90% reduction in the amount of energy available to us. A 70-90% reduction would be extremely painful, but not the "end of the world" if it wasn't for the fact that, as explained above, the monetary system will collapse in the absence of a constantly increasing energy supply. If a shortfall between demand and supply of 5% is enough to send prices up by 400%, what to you think a shortfall of 70-90% is going to do? To make matters worse, even if the all of the above obstacles are assumed away, we are still faced with the problem of "economic doubling time." If the economy grows at a healthy clip of 3.5% per year, it doubles in size every 20 years. That growth must be fueled by an energy supply that doubles just as quickly. Thus, our total "energy debt" will have compounded itself by the time we have made any major strides in switching to alternative sources of energy
What about amazing new technologies such as thermal depolymerization, solarnanotechnology, space based solar arrays, and other 'energy-miracles'?" [A] I. Thermal Depolymerization Thermal depolymerization is an intriguing solution to our landfill problems, but since most of the feedstock (such as tires and turkey guts) requires high-grade oil to make in the first place, it is more "high-tech recycling" than it is a solution to a permanent oil shortage. While the following analogy is certainly a bit disgusting, it should clearly illustrate why thermal depolymerization won't do much to soften the coming collapse: * JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
Expecting thermal depolymerization to help solve our long term energy problems makes as much sense as expecting the consumption of our own feces to help solve a long-term famine.
50
In both cases, the energy starved party is simply recycling a small portion of the energy they had previously consumed. On a less grotesque note, the technology is besieged by several fundamental shortcomings that those desperately hoping for a techno-messiah tend to overlook: First, there is the problem of production costs. According to a recent article in Fortune Magazine, a barrel of oil produced via the thermal depolymerization process costs $80 to produce as of January 2005. To put that figure in perspective, consider the fact that oil pulled out of the ground in Saudi Arabia costs less than $2.50 per barrel, while oil pulled out of the ground in Iraq costs only $1.00 per barrel. This means that with spot oil prices in the $50/barrel range, a barrel of oil produced via thermal depolymerization in January 2005 would have to sell for between $1,600-$4,000 per barrel to have a return on investment comparable to oil produced from Saudi Arabia or Iraq. Oil prices of $1,600-$4,000 per barrel would put gas prices at roughly $80-$200 per gallon. If the technology was the miracle many people are desperately hoping for, the company would likely not have needed a grant from the Department of Energy to keep its head above water. Nor would it have been the subject of an April 2005 Kansas City Star article appropriately entitled, "Innovative Turkey-toOil Plant Eats Money, Spits Out Fowl Odor." Sky-high production costs and horrific odor problems aside, a look at the history of thermal depolymerization tends to show it will never amount to more than a tiny drop in the giant barrel that is our oil appetite. The technology was first developed for commercial use in 1996. Here we are, ten years later and there is only one thermal depolymerization plant online and it is producing less than 500 barrels of oil per day, despite record high oil prices. Even if oil production from thermal depolymerization is upscaled by a factor of 1,000, and the cost of production brought down by a factor of 10, it will still only be producing 500,000 barrels of oil per day. While that may make a tremendous amount of money for the company, it won't make much difference in our overall situation as the global need for oil is projected to reach 120,000,000 barrels per day by 2020. If thermal depolymerization sounded "too good to be true" when you first heard about it, now you know why. Again, as with other alternatives, we shouldn't let these challenges discourage continued research, development, and investment into the technology. However, we have to be realistic about what the technology can and can't do. If you're a big agribusiness or energy company, you may want to look into thermal depolymerization. If, on the other hand, you're just a regular person trying to figure out how you're going to acquire things like food, water, and shelter in a post-cheap oil world, you may as well forget about thermal depolymerization. It is never going to make a discernable contribution to your standard of living. II. Space Based Solar Arrays As disappointing as thermal depolymerization has been to those hoping for a techno-savior, at least it has produced a small amount of commercially available energy. The same cannot be said for spacebased solar arrays, which according to NASA, are plagued by "major technical, regulatory and conceptual hurdles" and won't see the light of day for several decades. Even if these major hurdles are somehow cleared inside of 5 years instead of 50 years, there is still the not-so-minor problem of rewiring all of industrial civilization - including agriculture, communications, transportation, defense, health care, education, industry, government, finance/banking, etc. . . to run on space-derived solar energy.
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
51 Of course, before the global rewiring can begin, we have to find the energy, raw materials, political willingness, financial capital, etc. to get such a project off the ground. We also have to find a way to prevent China's million man standing army from snapping up all the raw materials necessary to make the transition. III. Solar Nantechonology While there are some promising technological advancements in solar-nanotechnology, even Dr. Richard Smalley, the scientist at the forefront of these technologies, admits we need a series of "miracles" to prevent a total collapse of industrial civilization. In the February 2005 issue of Discover Magazine, Dr. Smalley gave the following prognosis:
There will be inflation as billions of people compete for insufficient resources. There will be famine. There will be terrorism and war. He went on to say that it will take "presidential leadership" to inspire us to pursue technologies that might alleviate this crisis. In other words, the chances of technology saving you from the coming economic collapse are about the same as the chances of another virgin-birth taking place. For you or any other "average" person to expect high-tech solutions to save you from the economic effects of Peak Oil is akin to a person living in sub-Saharan Africa to expect high-tech medical treatments to save their community from the effects of AIDS. These treatments are only available and affordable for super-wealthy people like Magic Johnson, not the average people in Africa. Likewise, many of the recent technological advancements in energy production and efficiency may be available and affordable to extraordinarily wealthy people or agencies like the Department of Defense, but they aren't going to be available or affordable to the rest of us
What about hybrids and super fuel efficient vehicles? [A] I. Hybrids Hybrids or so called "hyper-cars" aren't the answer either because the construction of an average car consumes the energy equivalent of approximately 27-54 barrels (1,110-2,200 gallons) of oil. Thus, a crash program to replace the 700 million internal combustion vehicles currently on the road with super fuel-efficient or alternative fuel-powered vehicles would consume the energy equivalent of approximately 18-36 billion barrels of oil, which is the amount of oil the world currently consumes in six-to-twelve months. Consequently, such a program (while well-intentioned) would actually bring the collapse upon us even sooner. II. Electric Vehicles Electric vehicles are incapable of replacing more than a small fraction (5 or maybe 10%) of the 700 million internal combustion engine powered cars on the road due to the limits of battery technology. Dr. Walter Youngquist explains:
. . . a gallon of gasoline weighing about 8 pounds has the same energy as one ton of conventional lead-acid storage batteries. Fifteen gallons of gasoline in a car's tank are the energy equal of 15 tons of storage batteries. Even if much improved storage batteries were devised, they cannot compete with gasoline or diesel fuel in energy density. Also, storage batteries become almost useless in very cold weather, storage capacity is limited, and batteries need to be replaced after a few years use at large cost. * JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
52
There is no battery pack which can effectively move heavy farm machinery over miles of farm fields, and no electric battery system seems even remotely able to propel a Boeing 747 14 hours nonstop at 600 miles an hour . . . Some promising research into new battery technlogies using lithium is being performed, but even the scientists at the forefront of this research admit, "We've got a long way to go."
Assumming these problems away, the construction of an average car also consumes 120,000 gallons of fresh water. Unfortunately, the world is in the midst of a severe water crisis that is only going to get worse in the years to come. Scientists are already warning us to get ready for massive "water wars." Thus, the only way for us to replace our current fleet of gas-guzzling SUVs with fuel-efficient hybrids or electric vehicles is to seize control of the world's reserves of both oil and fresh water and then divert those resources away from the billions of people who already rely on them. Even if were willing to undertake such an endeavor, the problem will still not be solved due to a phenomenon known as "Jevon's Paradox," whereby increases in energy efficiency are obliterated by corresponding increases in energy consumption. The US economy is a good example of Jevon's Paradox in action. Since 1970, we have managed to cut in half the amount of oil necessary to generate a dollar of GDP. At the same time, however, our total level of oil consumption has risen by about fifty percent while our level of natural gas and coal consumption have risen by even more. Thus, despite massive increases in the energy efficiency over the last 35 years, we are more dependent on oil than ever. This trend is unlikely to be abated in a market economy, where the whole point is to make as much money (consume as much energy) as possible.
What about large-scale efforts at conserving energy or becoming more energy efficient? [A] Amazingly, such efforts will actually make our situation worse. This probably makes absolutely no sense unless you understand how the modern day banking and monetary system works. To illustrate, let's revisit Jevon's Paradox, explained above, with an example: Pretend you own a computer store and that your monthly energy bill, as of December 2004, is $1,000. You then learn about the coming energy famine and decide to do your part by conserving as much as possible. You install energy efficient lighting, high quality insulation, and ask your employees to wear sweaters so as to minimize the use of your store's heating system. After implementing these conservation measures, you manage to lower your energy bill by 50% - down to $500 per month. While you certainly deserve a pat-on-the-back and while your business will certainly become more profitable as a result of your conservation efforts, you have in no way helped reduce our overall energy appetite. In fact, you have actually increased it. At this point, you may be asking yourself, "How could I have possibly increased our total energy consumption when I just cut my own consumption by $500/month? That doesn't seem to make common sense . . .?" Well think about what you're going to do with that extra $500 per month you saved. If you're like most people, you're going to do one of two things: 1. You will reinvest the $500 in your business. For instance, you might spend the $500 on more advertising. This will bring in more customers, which will result in more computers being sold. Since, as mentioned previously, the average desktop computer consumes 10X * JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
53 it's weight in fossil-fuels just during its construction, your individual effort at conserving energy has resulted in the consumption of more energy. 2. You will simply deposit the $500 in your bank account where it will accumulate interest. Since you're not using the money to buy or sell anything, it can't possibly be used to facilitate an increase in energy consumption, right? Wrong. For every dollar a bank holds in deposits, it will loan out between six and twelve dollars. These loans are then used by the bank's customers to do everything from starting businesses to making down payments on vehicles to purchasing computers. Thus, your $500 deposit will allow the bank to make between $3,000 and $6,000 in loans - most of which will be used to buy, build,or transport things using fossil fuel energy. Typically, Jevon's Paradox is one of the aspects of our situation that people find difficult to get their minds around. Perhaps one additional example will help clarify it: Think of our economy as a giant petroleum powered machine that turns raw materials into consumer goods which are later turned into garbage: Petroleum In THE ECONOMY Garbage Out If you remove the machine's internal inefficiencies, the extra energy is simply reinvested into the petroleum supply side of the machine. The machine then consumes petroleum and spits out garbage at an even faster rate. The only way to get the machine to consume less petroleum is for whoever owns/operates the machine to press the button that says "slow-down." However, since we are all dependent on the machine for jobs, food, affordable health care, subsidies for alternative forms of energy, etc., nobody is going to lobby the owners/operators of the machine to press the "slow-down" button until it's too late. Eventually (sooner than later) the petroleum plug will get pulled and the machine's production will sputter before grinding to a halt. At that point, those of us dependent on the machine (which means all of us) will have to fight for whatever scraps it manages to spit out. To be clear: conservation will benefit you as an individual. If, for instance, you save $100/month on your energy bills, you can roll that money into acquiring skills or resources that will benefit you as we slide down the petroleum-production downslope. But since your $100 savings will result in a net increase in the energy consumed by society as a whole, it will actually cause us to slide down the downslope faster. (Note: for examples of Jevon's Paradox in action in other areas, click here.)
[A]_See Bibliography Primary Sources Savinar & LifeAfterTheOilCrash
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
54
18 July 2006_PeakOil_RSA_Briefing Paper
V. WHO IS SERIOUS ABOUT THE THREAT OF PEAK OIL?
Is the US Government Aware of the Aforementioned Peak Oil Situation as Described? The Oil Industry’s Response Financial Awareness of Peak Oil o But What about the Market and the Laws of Supply and Demand? Peak Oil and the Energy War o Media Negligence and Complicity o The Opinions of Outspoken Intelligence Professionals o Oil Wars: The Last One Standing o 911: Pre-Emptive Strike & Pretext to the Energy War o Underlying reasons for USA Mainstream Media Complicity
Is the US Government Aware of the aforementioned Peak Oil Situation as described? Of course they are. As mentioned previously, Dick Cheney made the following statement in late 1999:112 [A] By some estimates, there will be an average of two-percent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a three-percent natural decline in production from existing reserves. That means by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional 50 million barrels a day.
To put Cheney’s statement in perspective, remember that the oil producing nations of the world are currently pumping at full capacity but are struggling to produce much more than 84 million barrels per day. Cheney’s statement was a tacit admission of the severity and imminence of Peak Oil as the possibility of the world raising its production by such a huge amount is borderline ridiculous. [A] A report commissioned by Cheney and released in April 2001 was no less disturbing:113 [A] The most significant difference between now and a decade ago is the extraordinarily rapid erosion of spare capacities at critical segments of energy chains. Today, shortfalls appear to be endemic. Among the most extraordinary of these losses of spare capacity is in the oil arena. [A] Not surprisingly, George W. Bush has echoed Dick Cheney’s sentiments. In May 2001, Bush stated, "What people need to hear loud and clear is that we’re running out of energy in America."114 112
Dick Cheney, Peak Oil and the Final Countdown, by Prof. Kjell Aleklett, President of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil, May 12,
2004. 113
Counterpunch: Saddam, Oil and Empire: Supply versus Demand, by Larry Everest, (An excerpt from Larry Everest's new book Oil, Power and Empire.), December 13, 2003. 114 Reason.com: Energy Independence: The Ever-Receding Mirage: 30 years of presidential futility and failure, Ronald Bailey, July 21, 2004
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
55 One of George W. Bush's energy advisors, energy investment banker Matthew Simmons, has spoken at length about the impending crisis.115 [A] Simmons' investment bank, Simmons and Company International, is considered the most reputable and reliable energy investment bank in the world. [A] Given Simmons' background, what he has to say about the situation is truly terrifying. For instance, in an August 2003 interview116 with From the Wilderness publisher Michael Ruppert, Simmons was asked if it was time for Peak Oil to become part of the public policy debate. He responded: [A] It is past time. As I have said, the experts and politicians have no Plan B to fall back on. If energy peaks, particularly while 5 of the world’s 6.5 billion people have little or no use of modern energy, it will be a tremendous jolt to our economic well-being and to our health — greater than anyone could ever imagine.
When asked if there is a solution to the impending natural gas crisis, Simmons responded: [A] I don’t think there is one. The solution is to pray. Under the best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis for maybe two years. After that it’s a certainty.
In May 2004, Simmons explained that in order for demand to be appropriately controlled, the price of oil would have to reach $182 per barrel.117 Simmons explained that with oil prices at $182 per barrel, gas prices would likely rise to $7.00 per gallon. [A] Simmons predictions are downright tame compared to what other analysts in the world of investment banking are preparing themselves for. For instance, in April 2005, French investment bank Ixis-CIB warned, "crude oil prices could touch $380 a barrel by 2015."118 [A] If you want to ponder just how devastating oil prices in over $200/barrel range will be for the US economy, consider that one of Osama Bin-Laden's primary goals has been to force oil prices into the $200 range.119 [A] Oil prices that far north of $100/barrel would almost certainly trigger massive, last-ditch global resource wars120 as the industrialized nations of the world scramble to grab what little of the black stuff is remaining. This may explain why the director of the Selective Service recently recommended the military draft be expanded to include both genders, ages 18-to-35.121 [A]
115
A list of Simmons Peak Oil Speeches can be found at: http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches See also Bibliography International Geologists….. Simmons & Simmons & Company International 116 From the Wilderness Exclusive Interview: Behind the Blackout: An Energy Investment Banker and Bush Energy Advisor Gives Unexpected Answers on the Northeast Power Grid, Peak Oil and Gas, and Much More, August 21, 2003 117 Is the world's oil running out fast?, by Adam Porter at the Peak Oil conference in Berlin, BBC News UK, 7 June 2004. 118 Will oil strike $380 a barrel by 2015?: A steep rise in prices is expected due to growing energy demands, By Adam Porter in Perpignan, France, Thursday 21 April 2005, 4:20 Makka Time, 1:20 GMT: “ A report prepared by energy economists at the French investment bank Ixis-CIB has warned crude oil prices could touch $380 a barrel by 2015.” 119 Is Saudi Oil Worth the Trouble?: Al Qaeda wants us to stop buying KSA’s oil. It’s not a bad idea., by James S. Robbins, National Review, June 02, 2004: “To be fair, al Qaeda doesn't really want us to stop buying Saudi oil, just to stop stealing it. Osama bin Laden has argued that the price of petroleum — even at $40 barrel — is so low as to constitute extortion. It is kept at this artificially deflated price through U.S. coercion and Saudi complicity. Osama argues that the fair price of oil is somewhere above $200/barrel.” 120 The Beginning of the Oil End Game featuring original FTW maps: Major Powers Jockey for Position and Risk All-Out War Before the 2007-8 Oil Cliff. Maps Reveal Rapid Global Realignment/Competition by Michael C. Ruppert, FTW. January 25, 2005. 121 Selective Service Eyes Women's Draft: The Proposal would also require registration of critical skills, by Eric Rosenberg, The Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Saturday 01 May 2004.
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
56 A March 2005 report prepared for the US Department of Energy confirmed dire warnings of the investment banking community. Entitled "The Mitigation of the Peaking of World Oil Production,"122 the report observed: [A] Without timely mitigation, world supply/demand balance will be achieved through massive demand destruction (shortages), accompanied by huge oil price increases, both of which would create a long period of significant economic hardship worldwide. Waiting until world conventional oil production peaks before initiating crash program mitigation leaves the world with a significant liquid fuel deficit for two decades or longer.
The report went on to say:123 [A] The problems associated with world oil production peaking will not be temporary, and past 'energy crisis' experience will provide relatively little guidance. The challenge of oil peaking deserves immediate, serious attention, if risks are to be fully understood and mitigation begun on a timely basis. . . . the world has never faced a problem like this. Without massive mitigation more than a decade before the fact, the problem will be pervasive and will not be temporary. Previous energy transitions were gradual and evolutionary. Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.
Representative Roscoe Bartlett (Republican, Maryland) has had made numerous speeches to Congress on Peak Oil.124 On March 14, 2005 Bartlett gave an extremely thorough presentation to Congress about the frightening ramifications of Peak Oil. During his presentation Representative Bartlett, who may be the most conservative member of Congress,125 quoted from LifeAfterTheOilCrash extensively, citing the author (Matt Savinar) by name on numerous occasions, while employing several analogies and examples originally published LifeAfterTheOilCrash. View a video of Bartlett recommending LifeAfterTheOilCrash to Resources for the Future, an extremely influential DC think tank. [A] On April 19, 2005 Representative Bartlett was interviewed on national television. Again, he referenced LifeAfterTheOilCrash: One of the writers on this, by the way, starts his article by saying, 'Dear Reader, Civilization as we know it will end soon.' Now your first impulse is to put down the article. This guy's a nut. But if you don't put it down and read through the article, you're hard-pressed to argue with his conclusions.
On May 12, 2005 Representative Bartlett gave another presentation about Peak Oil on the floor of the House of Representatives, stating that LifeAfterTheOilCrash "galvanized" him. On July 19, 2005 he had the following to say: [A] Mr. Speaker, if you go to your computer this evening and do a Google search for peak oil, you will find there a large assortment of articles and comments. Like every issue, you will find a few people who are on the extreme, but there will be a lot of mainstream observations there. One of the articles that you will find there was written by Matt Savinar. Matt Savinar is not a technical person. He is a lawyer, a good one, and he does what lawyers do. He goes to the sources and builds his case.
122
ASPO: Dr Hirsch and his colleagues have just completed a study for the U.S. DOE on the mitigation of world oil peaking, Hirsch, R.L., Bezdek, R.H, Wendling, R.M. Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management. 123 Dept of Energy & AlJazeera.net: US report acknowledges Peak Oil Threat, Published on 8 Mar 2005 by Adam Porter in Perpignan, France. 124 http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/FloorOfTheHouse.html 125 http://www.issues2000.org/House/Roscoe_Bartlett.htm
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
57 Matt Savinar could be correct when he said, "Dear Reader, civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon.'' I would encourage you, Mr. Speaker, to pull up his article and read it. It is really very sobering.
In subsequent speeches, Representative Bartlett read large excerpts of LifeAfterTheOilCrash verbatim into the official US Congressional record.126 He has also frequently quoted a surprisingly frank September 2005 report from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers entitled "Energy Trends and Their Implications for U.S. Army Installations." The report candidly explains among other things, that: [A] . . . energy consumption is indispensable to our standard of living and a necessity for the Army to carry out its mission. However, current trends are not sustainable. The impact of excessive, unsustainable energy consumption may undermine the very culture and activities it supports . . .
Bartlett isn't the only prominent conservative extremely concerned about these matters. Billionaire investor Richard Rainwater has had plenty to say about Peak Oil in the pages of Fortune Magazine.127 According to the December 26, 2005 issue of Fortune Magazine, Richard Rainwater, a multi-billionaire investor and friend of George W. Bush, reads this site regularly. In an article entitled "Energy Prophet of Doom" Fortune reporter Oliver Ryan writes: [A] "Rainwater," the voice on the phone announces. "Now, type L-A-T-O-C into Yahoo, and scroll down to the seventh item." Rainwater doesn't use e-mail. Rather, he uses rapid-fire phone calls to spread the gospel he discovers every morning on the web. One day it might be the decline of arable land in Malaysia. The next it could be the Olduvai theory of per capita energy consumption. "L-A-T-O-C" stands for LifeAfterTheOilCrash.net, a blog edited by Matt Savinar, 27, of Santa Rosa, Calif.
The article goes on to quote Rainwater as saying: The world as we know it is unwinding with respect to Social Security, pensions, Medicare. We're going to have dramatically increased taxes in the U.S. I believe we're going into a world where there's going to be more hostility. More people are going to be asking, 'Why did God do this to us?' Whatever God they worship. Alfred Sloan said it a long time ago at General Motors, that we're giving these things during good times. What happens in bad times? We're going to have to take them back, and then everybody will riot. And he's right.
Apparently, Richard Rainwater and Alfred Sloan aren't the only people expecting large scale civil unrest in the foreseeable future. In January 2006, the Department of Homeland Security gave Halliburton subsidiary Kellog, Brown, & Root a $400 million dollar contract to build vast new domestic detention camps.128 While the camps are ostensibly being built to house and process an "emergency influx of immigrants", one can't help but suspect they will be used to house domestic citizens who respond to the economic fallout of declining oil production by taking to the streets. [A] As one commentator recently observed, the reason various leaders are acting like desperados is because they have a desperate situation on our hands.129 [A] So, if you've been wondering why the Bush administration has been spending money, cutting social programs, and starting wars like there's no tomorrow, now you have your answer: as far as they are concerned, there is no tomorrow. [A] From a purely Machiavellian standpoint, they are probably correct in their thinking. [A] 126 127 128 129
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/FloorOfTheHouse.html Fortune Magazine: Energy Prophet of Doom, December 26, 2005, by Oliver Ryan. http://news.pacificnews.org/news/view_article.html?article_id=eed74d9d44c30493706fe03f4c9b3a77 Alternative Press Review: Desperado Days, by Zbignew Zingh, Dec 20, 2004.
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The Oil Industry’s Response
58
If you want to know the harsh truth about the future of oil, simply look at the actions of the oil industry. As a recent article in M.I.T.'s Technology Review points out130: [A] If the actions - rather than the words - of the oil business's major players provide the best gauge of how they see the future, then ponder the following. Crude oil prices have doubled since 2001, but oil companies have increased their budgets for exploring new oil fields by only a small fraction. Likewise, U.S. refineries are working close to capacity, yet no new refinery has been constructed since 1976. And oil tankers are fully booked, but outdated ships are being decommissioned faster than new ones are being built.
Some people believe that no new refineries have been built131 due to the efforts of environmentalists. This belief is silly when one considers how much money and political influence the oil industry has compared to the environmental movement. You really think Ronald Reagan and George H. Bush were going to let a bunch of pesky environmentalists get in the way of oil refineries being built if oil companies had wanted to build them? The real reason no new refineries have been built for almost 30 years is simple: any oil company that wants to stay profitable isn't going to invest in new refineries when they know there is going to be less and less oil to refine. [A] In addition to lowering their investments in oil exploration and refinery expansion, oil companies have been merging as though the industry is living on borrowed time:132 [A] December 1998: BP and Amoco merge; April 1999: BP-Amoco and Arco agree to merge; December 1999: Exxon and Mobil merge; October 2000: Chevron and Texaco agree to merge; November 2001: Phillips and Conoco agree to merge; September 2002: Shell acquires PenzoilQuaker State; February 2003: Frontier Oil and Holly agree to merge; March 2004: Marathon acquires 40% of Ashland; April 2004: Westport Resources acquires Kerr-McGee; July 2004: Analysts suggest BP and Shell merge; April 2005: Chevron-Texaco and Unocal merge; June 2005: Royal Dutch and Shell merge; July 2005: China begins trying to acquire Unocal
While many people believe talk of a global oil shortage is simply a conspiracy by "Big Oil" to drive up the prices and create "artificial scarcity," the rash of mergers listed above tells a different story. Mergers and acquisitions133 are the corporate world's version of cannibalism. When any industry begins to contract/collapse, the larger and more powerful companies will cannibalize/seize the assets of the smaller, weaker companies. (Note: for recent examples of this phenomenon outside the oil industry, see the airline and automobile industries.) [A] If you suspect the oil companies are conspiring amongst themselves to create artificial scarcity and thereby artificially raise prices, ask yourself the following questions: [A] 1. Are the actions of the oil companies the actions of friendly rivals who are conspiring amongst each other to drive up prices and keep the petroleum game going? or 130
The End of Oil?: There are good signs that worldwide oil production is declining. Best hold on tight, by Mark Williams, MIT Technology Review, February 2005. 131 US: No New Refineries in 29 Years, by Jad Mouawad, New York Times, May 9th, 2005 (on Corpwatch). 132 MARKET PLACE; Hints of Oil Industry Mergers to Come, February 2, 2005, Wednesday, by Jad Mouawad (NYT); Business/Financial Desk. 133 Mergers and Acquisitions, Law Forum
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59 2. Are the actions of the oil companies the actions of rival corporate desperados who, fully aware that their source of income is rapidly dwindling, are now preying upon each other in a game of "last man standing"?134
You don't have to contemplate too much, as recent disclosures from oil industry135 insiders indicate we are indeed "damn close to peaking"136 while independent industry analysts are now concluding that large oil companies believe Peak Oil is at our doorstep.137 [A] As the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists recently observed, even ExxonMobil is now "sounding the silent Peak Oil alarm."138 In their 2005 report entitled, "The Outlook for Energy",139 ExxonMobil suggests that increased demand be met first through greater fuel efficiency. The fact that ExxonMobil - one of the largest oil companies in the world - is now recommending increased fuel efficiency should tell you how imminent a crisis is at this point. [A] Equally alarming is the fact that Chevron has now started a surprisingly candid campaign140 to publicly address these issues. While the campaign fails to mention "Peak Oil" or explain how a drastically reduced oil supply will affect the average person, it does acknowledge that, while it took 125 years to burn through the first trillion barrels of oil, it will only take 30 years to burn through the next trillion.141 [A] In Michael Klare on Entering the Age of Resource Wars,142 Tom Engelhardt, has this to say about Chevron’s Will You Join Us? (Peak Oil) Ad Campaign: Most of this ad, part of a new campaign by an oil major, might easily have been taken more or less word for word from any of the pieces Michael Klare -- author of the indispensable Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America's Growing Dependence on Imported Petroleum -- has been writing for Tomdispatch over these many months. When Klare writes such passages and they prove accurate somewhere down the line, they can perhaps be called "prescient." When the Chevron ad people do the same, what you have is something like a confession reflecting a seismic shift in mainstream consciousness -- and we have to take our seismic shifts where we find them. After all this time, it seems that "peak oil" may suddenly be on some part of Big Oil's agenda, which tells you something about the cul-de-sac into which we've blithely managed to drive our SUVs.
Financial Awareness of Peak Oil Once global production peaks, there won't be anybody to turn to. The crisis will just get worse and worse with each passing year. [A] Financial Institutions, Investment Companies and Banks143 are aware of this.
134
Heinberg's "Last Man Standing" Hypothesis As Catastrophic Hallmark of Bush II, by Stan Moore (Sunday September 05 2004), Media Monitors Network. 135 See Bibliography International Oil Companies ExxonMobil See Bibliography International Oil Companies Chevron See Bibliography International Oil Companies Royal Dutch Shell See Bibliography International Oil Companies MOL 136 Shell, Exxon Tap Oil Sands, Gas as Reserves Dwindle (Update1), Bloomberg.com, February 18, 2005. 137 ChevronTexaco's CEO banking on peak oil situation, by David Lazarus, San Francisco Chronicle, Friday, April 8, 2005 138 Oil: Caveat empty, By Alfred J. Cavallo, May/June 2005 pp. 16-18 (vol. 61, no. 03) © 2005 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. 139 Oil: Caveat empty, By Alfred J. Cavallo, May/June 2005 pp. 16-18 (vol. 61, no. 03) © 2005 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 140 Chevron: Will You Join Us: To Deliver the World’s Energy, We Need Your’s First, Chevron, “Energy will be one of the defining issues of this century. One thing is clear: the ear of easy oil is over. So let the discussion begin. How will we meet the energy needs of the entire world in this century and beyond?” 141 Chevron: Will You Join Us: Advertising: Print. 142 Michael Klare on Entering the Age of Resource Wars, by Tom Engelhardt, TomDispatch.com, August 4, 2005 143 See also Bibliography International Banks / Financial Corporate Bodies Bank for International Settlements
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60 Noteworthy quotes from the most unlikely sources: There is no such thing, ultimately, as sustainable growth.” (18:56)…. “our whole monetary system is based on the premise that we will always have growth.” -- Republican Congressman Roscoe Bartlet: It is [free] market fundamentalism that has rendered the global capitalist system unsound and unsustainable... market fundamentalism is today a greater threat to open society than any totalitarian ideology. -- George Soros, legendary billionaire Wall Street marketer from The Crisis of Global Capitalism, Open Society Endangered, 1998.
The evidence of an imminent peak in global oil production144 is now overwhelming: [A] Ninety-nine percent of the world's oil comes from 44 oil-producing nations. At least 24 of these nations are past their peak and now in terminal decline. The entire world - with the exception of the Middle East peaked in 1997. The US peaked in 1970, Russia in 1987, the UK in 1999. Even Saudi Arabia - the famed "producer for all seasons" may be on the verge of seeing it production collapse.145 Global production of conventional oil has essentially plateaued since the year 2000. As far as "doom-and-gloom" denial, consider what widely respected Deutsche Bank had to say about Peak Oil in a recent report entitled, Energy Prospects After the Petroleum Age:146 [A] The end-of-the-fossil-hydrocarbons scenario is not therefore a doom-and-gloom picture painted by pessimistic end-of-the-world prophets, but a view of scarcity in the coming years and decades that must be taken seriously.
The Australian Financial Review echoed the sentiments of Deutsche Bank in a January 2005 article entitled, "Staring Down the Barrel of a Crisis": [A] The world's oil production may be about to reach its peak, forever. Such apocalyptic prophecies often surface in the middle of the northern hemisphere winter. What is unusual is that this time the doomsday scenario has gained serious credibility among respected analysts and commentators.
Given the credentials of those sounding the alarm the loudest, it is extremely unwise for you to causally dismiss this as just more "1970s doom-and gloom." [A]
But What about the Market and the Laws of Supply and Demand? Won’t the Market and the Laws of Supply and Demand Address this? Not enough to prevent an economic meltdown. [A] As economist Andrew McKillop explains in a recent article entitled, "Why Oil Prices Are Barrelling oil is nowhere near as "elastic" as most commodities: [A]
Up,"147
See also Bibliography International Banks / Financial Corporate Bodies Alan Greenspan, Former Federal Reserve Bank Chairman See also Bibliography International Banks / Financial Corporate Bodies Deutshe Bank Report See also Bibliography International Banks / Financial Corporate Bodies Australian Financial Review See also Bibliography International Banks / Financial Corporate Bodies International / Financial Stock Market Publications Nine reasons the peak now looks more imminent, by Richard Heinberg, Published on 7 Jul 2004 by EnergyResources. Archived on 7 Jul
144
2004. 145
New study raises doubts about Saudi oil reserves, by Institute for the Analysis of Global Security From Deutsche Bank Research, December 2, 2004 at http://www.dbresearch.de/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_DEPROD/PROD0000000000181487.PDF 147 Speaking Freely: Why oil prices are barreling up, By Andrew McKillop, Asia Times Online, Feb 16, 146
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61 One of the biggest problems facing the IEA, the EIA and a host of analysts and "experts" who claim that "high prices cut demand" either directly or by dampening economic growth is that this does not happen in the real world. Since early 1999, oil prices have risen about 350%. Oil demand growth in 2004 at nearly 4% was the highest in 25 years. These are simple facts that clearly conflict with received notions about "price elasticity". World oil demand, for a host of easily-described reasons, tends to be bolstered by "high" oil and gas prices until and unless "extreme" prices are attained.
As mentioned previously, this is exactly what happened during the oil shocks of the 1970s shortfalls in supply as little as 5% drove the price of oil up near 400%. Demand did not fall until the world was mired in the most severe economic slowdown since the Great Depression. [A] While many analysts claim the market will take care of this for us, they forget that neoclassic economic theory is besieged by several fundamental flaws148 that will prevent the market from appropriately reacting to Peak Oil until it is too late. To illustrate, as of April 2005, a barrel of oil costs about $55. The amount of energy contained in that barrel of oil would cost between $100-$250* dollars to derive from alternative sources of energy. Thus, the market won't signal energy companies to begin aggressively pursuing alternative sources of energy until oil reaches the $100-$250 mark. Only then will energy companies aggressively react! That will be too late. [A] *This does not even account for the amount of money it would take to locate and refine the raw materials necessary for a large-scale conversion, the construction and deployment of the alternatives, and finally the retrofitting of the world's $45 trillion dollar infrastructure to run on these alternative sources. [A] Remember: the so called "alternatives" to oil are actually "derivatives" of oil”149. Without an abundant and reliable supply of oil, we have no way of scaling these alternatives to the degree necessary to power the modern world. [A] Once they do begin aggressively pursuing these alternatives, there will be a 25-to-50 year lag time between the initial heavy-duty research into these alternatives and their wide-scale industrial implementation. [A] However, in order to finance an aggressive implementation of alternative energies, we need a tremendous amount of investment capital - in addition to affordable energy and raw materials - that we absolutely will not have once oil prices are permanently lodged in the $200 per barrel neighbourhood. [A ] While we need 25-to-50 years to retrofit our economy to run on alternative sources of energy, we may only get 25-to-50 days once oil production peaks. [A] Within a few months of global oil production hitting its peak, it will become impossible to dismiss the decline in supply as a merely transitory event. Once this occurs, you can expect traders on Wall Street 148
Five Fundamental Errors, The Long Version, by Jay Hanson: See also Bibliography International Banks / Financial Corporate Bodies Articles on Oil/Energy as a Foundation of Economic Theory and/or the Errors of Economic Theory 149 See Chapter: What about Alternative Sources of Energy, or See LifeaftertheOilCrash: What about the various alternatives to oil? Can’t we find replacements?; What about green alternatives like solar, wind, wave, and geothermal?; What about the hydrogen economy?; What about nuclear energy?; What about biofuels such as biodiesel and ethanol?; What about using coal to make synthetic oil?; Can't we use a combination of alternatives to replace oil?; What about amazing new technologies such as thermal depolymerization, solar- nanotechnology, space based solar arrays, and other 'energy-miracles'?"; What about hybrids and super fuel efficient vehicles?; What about large-scale efforts at conserving energy or becoming more energy efficient?
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62 to quickly bid the price up to, and possibly over, the $200 per barrel range as they realize the world is now in an era of permanent oil scarcity. [A] With oil at or above $200 per barrel, gas prices will reach $10 per gallon inside of a few weeks. This will cause a rapid breakdown of trucking industries and transportation networks. Importation and distribution of food, medicine, and consumer goods will grind to a halt. [A] The effects of this will be frightening. As Jan Lundberg, founder of the Lundberg Survey, aka "the bible of the oil industry" recently pointed out:150 The scenario I foresee is that market-based panic will, within a few days, drive prices up skyward. And as supplies can no longer slake daily world demand of over 80 million barrels a day, the market will become paralysed at prices too high for the wheels of commerce and even daily living in "advanced" societies. There may be an event that appears to trigger this final energy crash, but the overall cause will be the huge consumption on a finite planet. The trucks will no longer pull into Wal-Mart. Or Safeway or other food stores. The freighters bringing packaged techno -toys and whatnot from China will have no fuel. There will be fuel in many places, but hoarding and uncertainty will trigger outages, violence and chaos. For only a short time will the police and military be able to maintain order, if at all. Once the seriousness of situation is generally acknowledged, a panic will spread on the markets and bring down the entire house of cards 151 even if production hasn't actually peaked. For this reason, the mainstream media cannot discuss this issue without largely whitewashing the truly dire consequences for the average person. If they told the truth, people would panic and the markets would crash.
In summary, we are a prisoner of our own dilemma:-- [A] Right now, we have no economically scalable alternatives152 to oil.153 (Emphasis placed on economic scalability, not technical viability.) [A] We won't get motivated to aggressively pursue economically scalable alternatives until oil prices are sky high; [A] Once oil prices are sky-high, our economy will be shattered, and we won't be able to finance an aggressive switch-over to whatever modest alternatives are available to us. [A] An aggressive conservation program will bring down the price of oil, thereby removing the incentive to pursue alternatives until it is too late. [A] The raw materials (silicon, copper, platinum) necessary for many sources of alternative energy are already in short supply. Any attempt to secure enough of these resources to power a large scale transition to alternative energies is likely to be met with fierce competition, if not outright warfare, with China.154 [A] The media and government can't tell the public the truth without creating a panic and crash of the Stock Market. [A] 150
Here comes the nutcracker: Peak oil in a nutshell, by Jan Lundberg, 19 Dec 2004. The Most Important Thing You Don't Know About "Peak Oil", by Deconsumption, The Party’s Over: Turn out the lights, March 16, 2005. For excerpts go to Bibliography International Banks / Financial Corporate Bodies Articles on Oil/Energy as a Foundation of Economic Theory and/or the Errors of Economic Theory 152 See Chapter: What about Alternative Sources of Energy, 153 See Chapter: What about Alternative Sources of Energy, 154 US warned of east-west oil bidding war, By Doug Cameron in Houston. Published: February 16 2005 03:00 | Last updated: February 16 2005 03:00: “The head of ChevronTexaco yesterday called on the US government to build growing competition for Middle East oil with Asian consumers into a new national energy policy, or risk harming future economic growth.” 151
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63 Most of the steps we need to take to deal with this, such as driving less, would severely hurt large sectors of the US economy. For instance, an aggressive fuel conservation program would lower the demand for new vehicles as people would be driving less, thereby increasing the life of their vehicles. One out of every six jobs in the US is either directly or indirectly dependent on the automobile manufacturing sector. With GM and Ford already on the ropes, any aggressive program of conservation would likely send them spiralling into bankruptcy. While some interests may rejoice at the notion of "Big Auto" going bankrupt, this is only because they don't realize the devastating effects a GM and/or Ford bankruptcy would have on all of us, regardless of our political affiliations. [A]
"Are & Have International Governments Been Planning For This?" Absolutely. [A] The US government has been aware of Peak Oil since at least 1977 when the CIA prepared a report on it.155 As Professor Richard Heinberg has commented: [A] The 1977 CIA document shows clear and detailed awareness of oil issues, including depletion, extraction technologies, pipelines, areas of likely new discovery, the quality of existing reserves, and the dynamics of the global oil market. The CIA has obviously been studying oil very carefully for some time and must therefore understand the issue of global oil peak.
In 1982, the State Department released its own report,156 which stated: [A] . . . world petroleum production will peak in the 1990-2010 interval at 80-105 million barrels per day, with ultimate resources estimated at 2,100 billion barrels.
In short, the US government has been aware of and actively planning for this crisis for over 30 years.157 Three decades of careful, plotting analysis has yielded a comprehensive, sophisticated, and multifaceted plan in which military force will be used to secure and control the globe's energy resources. This plan is simplistically, but not altogether inaccurately - known as "Go to War to Get Oil."158 [A] This strategy was publicly announced in April 2001, when a report commissioned by Dick Cheney was released. According to the report, entitled Strategic Energy Policy Challenges For The 21st Century,159 the US is facing the biggest energy crisis in history and that the crisis requires "a reassessment of the role of energy in American foreign policy." [A] That's a diplomatic way of saying we are going to be fighting oil wars for a very long time.160 [A] James Woolsey, the former Director of the CIA, practically admitted as much at a recent conference on renewable energy:161 [A]
Smoking Gun: The CIA’s Interest in Peak Oil, by Richard Heinberg, or at FTW. See also Bibliography International National Governments USA: Army Corps of Engineers: See also Bibliography International National Governments USA: Dept of Defense Renewable Energy Assessment Final Report: See also Bibliography International National Governments USA: Department of Defense: Secretary of Defense See also Bibliography International National Governments USA: Department of Defense: Pentagon & Peak Oil Publications See also Bibliography International National Governments USA: Central Intelligence Agency (CIA): 156 THE GLOBAL 2000 REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT: Entering the Twenty-First Century. A report prepared by the Council on Environmental Quality and the Department of State. Gerald O. Barney, Study Director. Penguin, 1982 (?). See also: Wikipedia’s The Global 2000 Report to the President. 157 The Thirty Year Itch, Mother Jones, March/April 2003: 158 Tomgram: Michael Klare on oil wars and the American military, a Project of the Nation Institute, TomDispatch.com: Oil Wars Transforming the American Military into a Global Oil-Protection Service, by Michael T. Klare. 159 The West’s Battle for Oil, by Neil McKay, Sunday Herald, 06 October 2002 160 Oil wars Pentagon's policy since 1999, By Ritt Goldstein, May 20 2003, Sydney Morning Herald. 155
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64 I fear we're going to be at war for decades, not years . . . Ultimately we will win it, but one major component of that war is oil.
Recent statements by Henry Kissinger echo those of Woolsey. In a June 2005 Financial Times article entitled, "Kissinger Warns of Energy Conflict,"162 Kissinger was quoted as saying: [A] The amount of energy is finite, up to now in relation to demand, and competition for access to energy can become the life and death for many societies.
Kissinger distinguished these energy conflicts from previous conflicts such as the Cold War: [A] When nuclear weapons spread to 30 or 40 countries and each conducts a calculation, with less experience and different value systems, we will have a world of permanent imminent catastrophe.
The war in Iraq, which has been 23 years in the making,163 is just the beginning of a worldwide war that "will not end in our lifetime." The reason our leaders are telling us the "war on terror will last 50 years"164 and that the US engagement in the Middle East is now a "generational commitment"165 is two-fold: [A] All the countries accused of harbouring terrorists - Iraq, Iran,166 Syria, West Africa,167 Saudi Arabia168 - also happen to harbour large oil reserves. [A] Within 40-50 years, even these countries will see their oil reserves almost entirely depleted. At that point, the "war on terror" will come to an end. [A] While the Middle East countries find themselves targets in the "war on terror", China, Russia, and Latin America find themselves targets in the recently declared and much more expansive "war on tyranny."169 Whereas the "war on terror" is really a war for control of the world's oil reserves, this newly
161
National Security to Lead Renewable Energy Deployment: U.S. Energy Independence Goals Propel Renewable Energy to Next Phase, by Jesse Broehl, Editor, RenewableEnergyAccess.com, 14 December 2004: 162 Kissinger warns of energy conflict, by Caroline Daniel in Washington, June 2, 2005, Financial Times: “Henry Kissinger, former US secretary of state, yesterday warned that the global battle for control of energy resources could become the modern equivalent of the 19th century "great game" - the conflict between the UK and Tsarist Russia for supremacy in central Asia.” 163 Oil War: 23 Years in the Making, Published on Sunday, March 9, 2003 by the Toronto Star: 164 War on terror 'may last 50 years', BBC News UK, Saturday, 27 October, 2001, 08:20 GMT 09:20 UK: “The campaign against terrorism might last half a century, according to the Chief of the Defence Staff.” 165 PNAC's Happy Warriors, by Jason Vest, The Nation, February 4, 2005: “If love means never having to say you're sorry, its epitome was recently expressed by the Project for the New American Century. A glorified letterhead under which neoconservatives and liberal hawks have been affixing their signatures for years (primarily in the service of bringing regime change to Iraq), PNAC's latest communiqué was dispatched to Capitol Hill on January 28. It implores Congressional leaders to add at least 25,000 troops to the Army and Marine Corps each year for the next several years, as "it should be evident that our engagement in the greater Middle East is truly...a 'generational commitment.'" 166 Oil, Geopolitics, and the Coming War with Iran, by Michael T. Klare, Published on Monday, April 11, 2005 by TomDispatch.com. 167 Saudi Arabia, West Africa -- Next Stops in the Infinite War for Oil, by Michael C. Ruppert, FTW. 168 Saudi Arabia, West Africa -- Next Stops in the Infinite War for Oil, by Michael C. Ruppert, FTW 169 Neo-Con Agenda: Iran, China, Russia, Latin America ..., by Jim Lobe, Inter-Press Service, Friday 05 November 2004
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65 declared "war on tyranny" is really a war for control of the world's oil distribution and transportation chokepoints.170 [A] This type of large-scale, long-term warfare will likely require a massive expansion of the military draft.171 It's probably not a coincidence that the director of the Selective Service recently gave a presentation to Congress in which he recommended the military draft be extended to both genders, ages 18-35.172 [A] The strategy - as distasteful as it may be - is characterized by a Machiavellian logic. [A] Given the thermodynamic deficiencies of the alternatives to oil, the complexity of a large scale switch to these new sources of energy, and the wrenching economic and social effects of a declining energy supply, you can see why various current worldwide leaders view force as the only viable way to deal with the coming crisis. [A]
Peak Oil & The Energy War Senator Charles (Chuck) Grassley, Iowa: "You know what? What makes our economy grow is energy. And Americans are used to going to the gas tank (sic), and when they put that hose in their, uh, tank, and when I do it, I wanna get gas out of it. And when I turn the light switch on, I want the lights to go on, and I don't want somebody to tell me I gotta change my way of living to satisfy them. Because this is America, and this is something we've worked our way into, and the American people are entitled to it, and if we're going improve (sic) our standard of living, you have to consume more energy."
From Veterans for Peace: War is a Racket, by Major General Smedley Butler, founder of the United States Marine Corps (Motto: Semper Fidelis) War is a Racket. It always has been. It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives. A racket is best described, I believe, as something that is not what it seems to the majority of the people. Only a small "inside" group knows what it is about. It is conducted for the benefit of the very few, at the expense of the very many. Out of war a few people make huge fortunes. ‌ For a great many years, as a soldier, I had a suspicion that war was a racket; not until I retired to civil life did I fully realize it. Who Makes the Profits? Of course, it isn't put that crudely in wartime. It is dressed into speeches about patriotism, love of country, and "we must all put our shoulders to the wheel," but the profits jump and leap and skyrocket -- and are safely pocketed. Let's just take a few examples: ‌ Take our friends the du Ponts, the powder people -- didn't one of them testify before a Senate committee recently that their powder won the war? Or saved the world for democracy? Or something? How did they do in the war? They were a patriotic corporation. Well, the average earnings of the du
170 171 172
Control all 'tyrannical' world oil chokepoints? A Peek Behind Bush II's 'War on Tyranny', William Engdahl, February 14, 2005 Will the US Re-Open the Draft? By Stan Goff, FTW, 27 February 2004. Selective Service Eyes Women's Draft, By Eric Rosenberg, The Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Saturday 01 May 2004
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66 Ponts for the period 1910 to 1914 were $6,000,000 a year. It wasn't much, but the du Ponts managed to get along on it. Now let's look at their average yearly profit during the war years, 1914 to 1918. Fiftyeight million dollars a year profit we find! Nearly ten times that of normal times, and the profits of normal times were pretty good. An increase in profits of more than 950 per cent. Who Pays the Bills? .. We all pay them -- in taxation... But the soldier pays the biggest part of the bill. ‌. Boys with a normal viewpoint were taken out of the fields and offices and factories and classrooms and put into the ranks. There they were remolded; they were made over; they were made to "about face"; to regard murder as the order of the day. They were put shoulder to shoulder and, through mass psychology, they were entirely changed. We used them for a couple of years and trained them to think nothing at all of killing or of being killed. Then, suddenly, we discharged them and told them to make another "about face" ! This time they had to do their own readjustment, sans [without] mass psychology, sans officers' aid and advice and sans nation-wide propaganda. We didn't need them any more. So we scattered them about without any "three-minute" or "Liberty Loan" speeches or parades. Many, too many, of these fine young boys are eventually destroyed, mentally, because they could not make that final "about face" alone. ‌ Napoleon once said, "All men are enamoured of decorations . . . they positively hunger for them." So by developing the Napoleonic system -- the medal business -- the government learned it could get soldiers for less money, because the boys liked to be decorated. Until the Civil War there were no medals. Then the Congressional Medal of Honour was handed out. It made enlistments easier. After the Civil War no new medals were issued until the Spanish-American War. In the World War, we used propaganda to make the boys accept conscription. They were made to feel ashamed if they didn't join the army. So vicious was this war propaganda that even God was brought into it. With few exceptions our clergymen joined in the clamour to kill, kill, kill. To kill the Germans. God is on our side . . . it is His will that the Germans be killed. Beautiful ideals were painted for our boys who were sent out to die. This was the "war to end all wars." This was the "war to make the world safe for democracy." No one mentioned to them, as they marched away, that their going and their dying would mean huge war profits. No one told these American soldiers that they might be shot down by bullets made by their own brothers here. No one told them that the ships on which they were going to cross might be torpedoed by submarines built with United States patents. They were just told it was to be a "glorious adventure." Thus, having stuffed patriotism down their throats, it was decided to make them help pay for the war, too. So, we gave them the large salary of $30 a month. All they had to do for this munificent sum was to leave their dear ones behind, give up their jobs, lie in swampy trenches, eat canned willy (when they could get it) and kill and kill and kill . . . and be killed. How To Smash This Racket! WELL, it's a racket, all right. A few profit -- and the many pay. But there is a way to stop it. You can't end it by disarmament conferences. You can't eliminate it by peace parleys at Geneva. Well-meaning but impractical groups can't wipe it out by resolutions. It can be smashed effectively only by taking the profit out of war.
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Media Negligence & Complicity: Media-Friendly Explanations for War in Iraq via Perception Management. In An Interview with Col. Sam Gardiner: The Bush Administration's Psy-Ops on the US Public, by Kevin Zeeze, Counterpunch, Colonel Gardner explains how the Bush Administration uses disinformation and psychological warfare against the American public in order to get them to support the War in Iraq. Colonel Gardner taught strategy and military operations at the National War College, Air War College and Naval War College, authored “The Enemy is Us” an article describing how the Bush Administration used disinformation and psychological warfare – weapons usually used against the 'enemy' – against the American public in order to support the war in Iraq. He has done an extensive analysis of the media coverage before the war, during the war and during the occupation as well as of the statements of Administration officials. His conclusions are startling and of great concern. He has put his findings in a report entitled: “Truth from These Podia.” Colonel Gardner:… There is absolutely no question that the White House and the Pentagon participated in an effort to market the military option (for going to war with Iraq). The truth did not make any difference to that campaign. To call it fixing is to miss the more profound point. It was a campaign to influence. It involved creating false stories; it involved exaggerating; it involved manipulating the numbers of stories that were released; it involved a major campaign to attack those who disagreed with the military option. It included all the techniques those who ran the marketing effort had learned in political campaigns………… Zeese: Is the media being fooled by the Administration or is it complicit in this effort to misinform the public? Gardiner: The media have been fooled. They have been lazy. They have lost sight of the historic calling of journalism. Journalists have been replaced on television by cheerleaders………. Zeese: You conclude “Truth in these Podia” with the “Last Chart” and suggest that we need an investigation to determine the extent of information management and legislation to prevent the people of the United States from being victimized by war propaganda in the future. What type of investigation? What type of legislation? Gardiner: We need a commission. This one would not be about intelligence. This would be focused on strategic communications. I have been able to uncover some of the manipulation that went on before and during the war, but I think I have only scratched the surface. Some is still classified or buried.
In a Counterpunch Interview173 with Ray McGovern, spokesperson for Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS), McGovern shares his views on the quality of investigative reporting of the mainstream media in the US: Pritzke: But doesn't the US press have a reputation for good investigative reporting? McGovern: It did once. But that reputation goes back 30 years to the time of Vietnam and Watergate. The investigative reporting of those days is a thing of the past. The mainstream press now marches to the drumbeat of the administration.
173
Washington Lied: An Interview with Ray McGovern, by Marc Pritzke, Counterpunch, June 23, 2003 See also Bibliography International 911 / Iraq Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)
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The Opinions of Outspoken Intelligence Experts on Iraq and 911: VIPS Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS) is comprised of more than 50 former employees of agencies such as the CIA, the Defense Intelligence Agency, Department of State's Bureau of Intelligence and Research, Army Intelligence, the FBI and the National Security Agency. Their spokesperson is Ray McGovern, a 27-year veteran CIA analyst, who dealt with every administration from Kennedy to Bush, Snr., and presented the morning intelligence briefings to the Whitehouse for many years. With 15 other VIPS, McGovern participated in a protest of torture and returned his Intelligence Commendation Award medallion to Congressman Pete Hoekstra, R-MI, and Chair of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. He argued that he did "not wish to be associated, however remotely, with an agency engaged in torture," and that "this is an order of magnitude different from my experiences in the past — there has been torture before, but never before has it been ordered and openly justified."174 With 32 other VIPS, McGovern wrote a letter to Senator McCain supporting his bill on the banning of cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment by all US personnel around the world.175 In the VIPS MEMORANDUM titled, The Stakes in the Search for Weapons of Mass Destruction,176 co-authored by David MacMichael and McGovern, they assert that U.S. presidents have a history of manufacturing evidence in order to start wars. They accuse numerous presidents of misusing and manufacturing evidence to support covert and/or overt wars against other nations: Dwight D. Eisenhower, in the 1954 overthrow of the Guatemalan government; Kennedy’s Bay of Pigs attempt to overthrow Castro; Lyndon Johnson and the infamous Gulf of Tonkin incident to provide Johnson with carte blanche power in the Vietnam war; he provides three examples of Raegan’s planting of evidence to justify the US’s support for the Contras against the Sandinistas, and he provides two examples of George H.W. Bush, Snr’s manufacturing of evidence to go to war in Iraq in 1991. McGovern argued with Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld after a speech in Atlanta, Georgia on May 4, 2006, directly questioning the Secretary: "Why did you lie to get us into a war that was not necessary and that has caused these kinds of casualties? Why?"177 He is one of 100 signatories to a petition "which calls for immediate public attention to unanswered questions that suggest that people within the current administration may indeed have deliberately allowed 9/11 to happen, perhaps as a pretext for war."178 McGovern testified at a Democratic National Headquarters forum in 2005 that had been convened by Rep. John Conyers (D-MI) of the House Judiciary Committee on the Downing Street Memo.179
174
I do not wish to be associated with Torture, by Ray McGovern, 02 March 2006 VIPS letter to Senator John McCain, dated December 9, 2005 176 Ex-CIA Professionals: Weapons of Mass Distraction…. , by David MacMichael and Ray McGovern, April 25, 2003. Published on Commondreams + Scoop Indendent News NZ 177 MSNBC host Keith Olbermann presents the un-cut version of the McGovern-Rumsfeld encounter--complete with biting commentary by Newsweek writer Richard Wolfee + Article on Democracy Now + FTW + TruthDigger of the Week, by Truthdig, + Associated Press Article on the encounter + Article on how the media largely marginalized or ignored the substance of McGovern’s challenge to Rumsfeld + Video: Rumsfeld caught out on lies about WMD 178 http://www.wanttoknow.info/911statement 175
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69 reported180
The Washington Post that in his testimony McGovern "declared that the United States went to war in Iraq for oil, Israel and military bases craved by administration 'neocons' so 'the United States and Israel could dominate that part of the world.' He said that Israel should not be considered an ally and that Bush was doing the bidding of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. 'Israel is not allowed to be brought up in polite conversation,' McGovern said. Genuine criticism of official Israeli policy is often portrayed as if it were anti-semite bigotry: 'The last time I did this, the previous director of Central Intelligence called me anti-Semitic.'" McGovern described the incident with former Director of Central Intelligence James Woolsey in an article in Counterpunch:181 I thought of the debate I had on Iraq with arch-neoconservative and former CIA Director James Woolsey on PBS' Charlie Rose Show on August 20, when I broke the taboo on mentioning Israel and was immediately branded "anti-Semitic" by Woolsey. Reflecting later on his accusation, it seemed almost OK since it was so blatantly ad hominem. And his attack was all the more transparent, coming from the selfdescribed "anchor of the Presbyterian wing of JINSA"-the Jewish Institute of National Security Affairs, a strong advocate of war to eliminate all perceived enemies of Israel-like Iraq.
In Former CIA Agent Says Bush to Blame for 9/11,182 McGovern mentioned how the Bush administration wanted to involve the country with the war in Iraq for certain reasons other than fear of weapons of mass destruction, which was just a more media-friendly explanation for the war. "I have initials for why I think we went to war in Iraq," McGovern said. "O.I.L. O-I-L, O is for oil, I is for Israel and L is for logistics, as in when we have Iraq we have a foothold and a number of bases strategically placed in the Middle East so we can be in control over there and also to protect Israel."
Other academic experts on Iraq and 911, not written about in the mainstream media, include, but are not limited to: Veterans for 911 Truth, Scholars for 9/11 Truth, founded by Prof. James Fetzer is a group of about 200 faculty, students, and scholars who question the official scientific account of the September 11, 2001 attacks. The group believes that the investigations by FEMA and NIST regarding the collapse of the World Trade Center buildings are inadequate, and that crucial facts and question pertaining to the attacks have been ignored by senior government officials. These questions include: What caused building #7 to collapse? Where is the 179
The Downing Street Memo is official documentation - from the chief of British intelligence, Sir Richard Deerlove, claiming Bush "fixed the intelligence reports (WMD) around the (Iraqi war) policy." For more on the Downing Street Memo See also Bibliography International 911 / Iraq Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS): Proof Bush Fixed the Facts: "The Intelligence and facts are being fixed around the policy", by Ray McGovern, May 4, 2005, TomPaine.com; Proof Bush Deceived America, by Ray McGovern, January 13, 2006, TomPaine.com 180 Democrats Play House to Rally Against the War, June 17, 2005, by Dana Milbank 181 http://www.counterpunch.org/mcgovern12072004.html 182 Former CIA Agent Says Bush to Blame for 9/11, by Chris Gardner, University of South Florida Oracle & CommonDreams, and an interview with Tucker Karlson on MSNBC.
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70 science that explains how all three WTC buildings collapsed close to the speed of gravity? Why was the vast majority of the evidence immediately discarded and/or is inaccessible to independent researchers? Scholars for 9/11 Truth include members such as: ďƒ¨ Lt. Col. Bob Bowman, former Director of Advanced Space Programs Development for the U.S. Air Force in the Ford and Carter administrations, and a former United States Air Force Lieutenant Colonel with 101 combat missions. He holds a Ph.D. in Aeronautics and Nuclear Engineering from the California Institute of Technology, who considers the US government complicit in the 911 attacks. ďƒ¨ Steven Earl Jones is a professor of physics at Brigham Young University who conducts research in nuclear fusion and solar energy. Jones conducted his PhD research at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center from 1974 to 1977), and post-doctoral research at Cornell University and the Los Alamos Meson Physics Facility. Jones has written a paper regarding the September 11 terror attacks which has been accepted for publication in 9/11 And The American Empire: Intellectuals Speak Out, a volume edited by David Ray Griffin and Peter Dale Scott, and scheduled for publication in 2006 by Interlink Books. In Why Indeed did the WTC Buildings Collapse, Jones cites evidence he says supports the hypothesis that controlled demolition, rather than simply the impact of jet airliners and the ensuing fires, caused the Twin Towers and WTC 7 to collapse. Jones cites and includes photographic evidence, which he says shows molten metal in the debris, and reports on sulfidation of structural steel.
Oil Wars: The Last One Standing Approach Simply put, the "Last One Standing" approach to declining oil availability is the one being used by America: i.e. to use the military prowess of the United States to ensure they have their needed share of
the remaining oil. [C] Oil Wars: Where, Why & Who?
Global Energy Security Threats from the IEA: Future Predictions that Western Oil-based economies are likely to face in the future 1. Conflicts between rich consuming nations and poorer producing nations: 2. Conflicts between consuming nations: * JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
71 3. Civil wars within producing nations for control of resources: 4. Asymmetrical warfare: Asymmetrical warfare—otherwise known as terrorism—may be increasingly likely between rich oil-consuming nations and non-state entities in oil-producing nations. [C] All of this is in our future. These may not all be shooting wars, or at least they may not start out that way. [C]
911: Pre-Emptive Strike & Pretext to the Energy War President George W. Bush183 and Vice President Cheney:184 “The American Way of Life is Not Negotiable.”
James Akins, former US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia says: It has everything to do with oil. If we control Iraqi oil and we continue more or less to control Saudi oil then whatever Europe or the rest of the world wants in the field of energy is going to be essentially irrelevant because we will be OPEC, We will be the new OPEC.185
James Garner, the first Iraq viceroy says: "Look back on the Philippines around the turn of the 20th century: they were a coaling station for the navy, and that allowed us to keep a great presence in the Pacific. That's what Iraq is for the next few decades: our coaling station that gives us great presence in the Middle East."
In The so-called evidence (on 911) is a farce,186 Stan Goff, Retired US Special Forces Master Sergeant says: The so-called evidence (for 911) is a farce. The US presented Tony Blair's puppet government with the evidence, and of the 70 so-called points of evidence, only nine even referred to the attacks on the World Trade Center, and those points were conjectural. This is a bullshit story from beginning to end. Presented with the available facts, any 16-year old with a liking for courtroom dramas could tear this story apart like a two-dollar shirt. But our corporate press regurgitates it uncritically. But then, as we should know by now, their role is to legitimize. ….. It's for all these reasons I say the left has missed the boat on this one, by allowing (the Bush Administration) to get away with rushing past the question of who did what on September 11th. If the official story is a lie, and I think the circumstantial case is strong enough to stay with this question, then we really do need to know what happened. And we need to understand 183
http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldsummit2002/story/0,12264,780529,00.html http://www.motherjones.com/commentary/fiore/2001/05/preserve.html 185 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/programmes/correspondent/transcripts/2785095.txt 186 The Story We Hear on the News and Read in the Newspapers is Simply Not Believable, by Stan Goff, 20 October 2001, by Center for Research of Globalisation + The so-called Evidence on 911 is a farce, by Stan Goff, 10 October 2001, NarcoNews.com 184
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72 concretely what the motives of this administration are. …. And we need to understand more than just their immediate motives, but where the larger social forces that underwrite our situation right now are headed. I .. think this administration is …. putting together some very deliberative technical solutions in response to a larger situation that is slipping rapidly out of their control. Like clear cutting. There's a very smart technology being employed to do a very dumb thing. What they are responding to is not September 11th, but the beginning of a permanent and precipitous decline in worldwide oil production, the beginning of a deep and protracted worldwide recession, and the unravelling of the empire.
In FBI: Bin Ladin Not Wanted for 911,187 Enver Masud, of the Wisdom Fund says: The FBI's "Most Wanted Terrorists" web page does not state that Bin Laden is wanted for the September 11, 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. … When asked why there is no mention of 9/11 on the FBI's web page, Rex Tomb of the FBI's public affairs unit is reported to have said, "The reason why 9/11is not mentioned on Usama Bin Laden's Most Wanted page is because the FBI has no hard evidence connecting Bin Laden to 9/11."
For the past five years FTW has argued, emphasized, and repeated endlessly188 that perhaps the biggest mistake of all time was made on September 11th 2001, when the only real global operational plan to deal with Peak Oil was put into effect. On September 11th the US began a war, now infamously known as “the war which will not end in our lifetimes,” to decide who will control the last remaining oil and gas reserves on the planet. In Crossing the Rubicon: Simplifying the [Legal] Case Against Dick Cheney (for US & 911 Complicity), Michael Kane briefly lays down Cheney’s Means, Motive and Opportunity: There are 3 major points made within Crossing the Rubicon that are crucial to proving (US complicity for 911 and) Cheney's guilt. I shall first list them and then go on to prove each point as laid out in Crossing the Rubicon. Means - Dick Cheney and the Secret Service: Dick Cheney was running a completely separate chain of Command & Control via the Secret Service, assuring the paralysis of Air Force response on 9/11. The Secret Service has the technology to see the same radar screens the FAA sees in real time. They also have the legal authority and technological capability to take supreme command in cases of national emergency. Dick Cheney was the acting Commander in Chief on 9/11. Motive - Peak Oil: At some point between 2000 and 2007, world oil production reaches its peak; from that point on, every barrel of oil is going to be harder to find, more expensive to recover, and more valuable to those who recover and control it. Dick Cheney was well aware of the coming Peak Oil crisis 187
FBI: Bin Ladin Not Wanted for 911?, by Enver Masud, The Wisdom Fund, June 8, 2006. Also published on FTW. FTW: Unscrambled Fighter Jets articles, Govt. Corruption Complicity in 911 articles, Timelines, Insider Trading on 911 Airlines prior 911 Vreeland (US Naval Intelligence Officer who warned prior to 911 of the attacks and was imprisoned therefore), Investigations, Watergate II, etc. 188
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at least as early as 1999, and 9/11 provided the pretext for the series of energy wars that Cheney stated, "will not end in our lifetime."
73
Opportunity - 9/11 War Games: The Air Force was running multiple war games on the morning of 9/11 simulating hijackings over the continental United States that included (at least) one "live-fly" exercise as well as simulations that placed "false blips" on FAA radar screens. These war games eerily mirrored the real events of 9/11 to the point of the Air Force running drills involving hijacked aircraft as the 9/11 plot actually unfolded. The war games & terror drills played a critical role in ensuring no Air Force fighter
jocks - who had trained their entire lives for this moment - would be able to prevent the attacks from succeeding. These exercises were under Dick Cheney's management.
Underlying reasons for USA Mainstream Media Complicity? Essentially for the majority of the mainstream media who make the editorial decisions to report on the evidence against Cheney and the Bush Administration for their complicity in 911 and the real reasons for starting the ‘War on Terrorism’ to some degree support Bush’s 911 Pre-Emptive Strike and Energy War (War on Terrorism) to gain access and control, including the power arising from such control, of Middle Eastern Oil. FTW described this co-complicity of the media and the American public / Western Corporate Civilisation in their article In your Face: the Militarisation of Oil: But there is a deeper part of human nature which covers the planet in a sickly, light-sweet-crude blanket of denial. It is best exemplified from the closing lines of Sidney Pollack's 1975 Three Days of the Condor, perhaps the best spy movie ever made. As FTW has shown in recent stories – using declassified CIA documents – the CIA was well aware of Peak Oil in the mid 1970s. Three Days of the Condor took that awful truth and said then, what few in the post-9/11 world have had the courage to say. I can guarantee you that it is the overriding rationale in Dick Cheney's mind, in the mind of every senior member of the Bush administration, and in the mind of whomever it is that will be chosen as the 2004 Democratic Party nominee. Getting rid of Bush will not address the underlying causative factors of energy and money and any solution that does not address those issues will prove futile. Turner (Robert Redford): "Do we have plans to invade the Middle East?" Higgins (Cliff Robertson): " Are you crazy?" Turner: " Am I?" Higgins: "Look, Turner…" Turner: "Do we have plans?" Higgins: "No. Absolutely not. We have games. That's all. We play games. What if? How many men? What would it take? Is there a cheaper way to destabilize a regime? That's what we're paid to do." Turner: "Go on. So Atwood just took the game too seriously. He was really going to do it, wasn't he?” Higgins: "It was a renegade operation. Atwood knew 5412 would never authorize it. There was no way, not with the heat on the Company.” Turner: "What if there hadn't been any heat? Supposing I hadn't stumbled on a plan? Say nobody had?" Higgins: "Different ball game. The fact is there was nothing wrong with the plan. Oh, the plan was alright. The plan would have worked."
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74 Turner: "Boy, what is it with you people? You think not getting caught in a lie is the same thing as telling the truth?" Higgins: "No. It's simple economics. Today it's oil, right? In 10 or 15 years - food, Plutonium. And maybe even sooner. Now what do you think the people are going to want us to do then? Turner: " Ask them." Higgins: "Not now - then. Ask them when they're running out. Ask them when there's no heat in their homes and they're cold. Ask them when their engines stop. Ask them when people who've never known hunger start going hungry. Do you want to know something? They won't want us to ask them. They'll just want us to get it for them."
Generally and plausibly somewhat unconsciously Americans want their government to get ‘it’ (oil: for as cheap as possible and as much as possible) for them! Period. [A]_See Bibliography Primary Sources Matt Savinar & LifeAfterTheOilCrash.net [C]_See Bibliography Primary Sources Richard Heinberg
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75
18 July 2006_PeakOil_RSA_Briefing Paper
VI. WHAT SHOULD SOUTH AFRICANS BE DOING ABOUT PEAK OIL?
Heinberg: The Oil Depletion Protocol Heinberg: What can Government / Business / Organisations / Individuals do? Matt Savinar: What can you do? Mike Ruppert: What Can you do? Financially: Moving to a Local Renewable Energy Financial Paradigm Financially: What are Others Doing? o Canadian Government Factors All South Africans Need to Focus Our Attention and Energy On: o Limit Population o Implement an Urgent New Deal Plan to Develop Alternative Energies o Reinvent the Way Money Works o Save Energy o Foster Local Communities o Get out of Debt o Educate and Raise Awareness: Talk About the Issue
Heinberg: The Oil Depletion Protocol In his Museletter, How to Avoid Oil Wars, Terrorism, and Economic Collapse, Heinberg includes a presentation and discussion of "The Oil Depletion Protocol" By now most well-informed people are aware that global oil production may soon reach its all-time peak, and that the consequences will likely be severe.
You could have fooled me! Most well-informed South Africans haven’t got a clue, haven’t ever even heard of the term ‘Peak Oil’ let alone have any opinion as to whether it may occur, will occur and what consequences they should plan for! In his Museletter, Tools with a Life of Their Own, he says: And yet it appears to me now that, in assessing technology and understanding its effects on people and nature, it is at least as important to pay attention to the energy that drives tools as to the tools themselves and the surrounding political-ideological matrix. In short, we who have been criticizing the technological society, using the methods of historical analysis, have missed at least half the story we are attempting to weave when we fail to notice the energetic evolution of tools. This essay is a brief attempt to make up for this oversight. It will also discuss why the impending peak in global oil production will pull the plug on the kind of “progress” we have come to expect over the past two centuries, providing an historic opportunity to reshape humanity’s relations with technology and with nature. * JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
76 ….. For thousands of years, human beings have engaged in a constant struggle to harness extrasomatic energy (that is, energy sources outside the human body). Until recently, such energy came mostly from the capture of work performed by animal muscles. In the US, as recently as 1850, domesticated animals—horses, oxen, and mules—were responsible for about 65 percent of the physical work supporting economy; today the percentage is negligible: virtually all work is done by fuel-fed machines. Slavery was a strategy for capturing human muscle power, and the end of most overt slavery during the 19th century was more or less inevitable when Class D tools became cheaper to own and keep than human slaves—or domesticated animals, for that matter. …… To understand how we have become so different (as a species dependent upon our tools, we have become a different species from our recent ancestors), how different we have become, and also how the end of cheap extrasomatic energy is likely to impact us and the society in which we are embedded, it is helpful to draw a lesson from cultural anthropology. …….And that is exactly what Peak Oil implies. How dramatic a pull-back are we talking about? No one knows. It depends to a large degree on how we manage the inevitable collapse in financial and governance systems, and whether the countries of the world can be persuaded to adopt a global Oil Depletion Protocol; or whether instead nations merely fight mercilessly over the last petroleum reserves until even the “winners” are utterly spent and the resources in dispute have been used up or destroyed in the conflict itself. In the worst case, Zerzan’s ideal of a return to hunting and gathering may be realized—though not by moral choice, but by cruel fate. If Class D tools fueled by cheap oil eliminated drudgery, life without abundant extrasomatic energy will imply more labor—certainly for food production. The return of slavery is a frighteningly real possibility. Such nightmare scenarios can only be averted by careful, hard, cooperative work. … Under the circumstances, efforts to try to bring industrialism to ruin prematurely seem to me to be pointless and wrongheaded: ruin will come soon enough on its own. Better to invest time and effort in personal and community preparedness. Enhance your survival prospects. Learn practical skills, including the manufacture and use of Paleolithic tools. Learn to understand and repair (as much as is possible) existing Class B and C tools that are likely still to be useful when there is no gasoline or electricity. Preserve whatever is beautiful, sane, and intelligent. That includes scientific and cultural knowledge, and examples of human achievement in the arts. Nobody can preserve it all, or even a substantial portion; choose what appeals to you. A great deal of this knowledge is currently captured on media with dubious survival prospects—magnetic disc or tape, compact laser disc, or acid-soaked paper. If someone doesn’t make the effort, the best of what we have achieved over the past centuries and decades will disappear along with the worst. ….. We humans tend to learn really tough lessons only by bitter experience. These are tough lessons indeed. If we learn them, perhaps the initially exhilarating but now bitter experience of addicting ourselves to fossil fuels and then having to go cold turkey will not have been entirely pointless.
And on 18 July 2006, on Day 1, at ASPO-5 in Pisa, Heinberg laid out The Oil Depletion Protocol: After publishing his pathbreaking book The Party’s Over, Richard Heinberg has turned his attention to ways of dealing with the inevitable energy descent. His latest effort is a new book, The Oil Depletion Protocol (New Society Publishers), a belt-tightening regime which Heinberg summarized in his ASPO-5 presentation today. “It’s clear that unless we have a means of rationing oil, we’ll end up fighting over it,” he said.
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77 The Oil Depletion Protocol builds on earlier efforts—The Uppsala and Rimini protocols, for example— and its success depends on a world that cooperates to divvy up the remaining supplies. It comes on the heels of the Kyoto Agreement, which similarly depends on widespread adoption by nations. Heinberg said the idea of a depletion protocol is extremely simple. “It can be explained in a few minutes to anyone,” he said. The “operating condition” is that nations “reduced oil consumption by at least the world depletion rate”—assumed to be about 2.6% per year but could be adjusted upward as needed. At the same time, no country should produce above the present depletion rate. How would countries adapt? Heinberg rolled out the familiar menu of options: Development of renewable sources—wind, solar, and biomass. “Ultimately this is what we need to depend on anyway, at least by the end of this century. So it makes sense to invest in these at the outset.” Agriculture needs to be radically restructured to accommodate the protocol’s oil diet, Heinberg said. It will need to become more labor intensive and dependent on “localized organic production.” Permaculture techniques are going to become increasingly valuable for surviving the descent. And we can take simple steps, like planting a vegetable garden. “During the second world war, 40% of our vegetables used to be produced in back yards.” He said. Car-dependent countries like the US and Australia have a lot of catching up to do. But baby steps are possible to begin the weaning process, like car sharing and community supported hitchhiking. What’s the incentive for nations to sign up? “Oil depletion is happening whether we plan for it or not,” he said. “Those that plan will be better off.” Sweden has set the right example, adopting a national goal of aggressively cutting oil consumption at a rate that actually exceeds the annual 2.6% rate recommended by Heinberg’s protocol. Heinberg thinks the world can successful implement the protocol. No incentives are needed, he said, because nations that adopt the protocol will thrive and those that don’t will see the obvious benefits of joining the club. One hitch: To join the protocol you’ll need to agree to a comprehensive national oil audit so that an international “secretariat” can monitor compliance. But such transparency is desperately needed anyway, he said. Heinberg said adopting the protocol before the peak is preferred, but it’s never too late. “Nations that drag their heels will suffer the most,” he said. The key to implementing the protocol for industrialized nations will be the adoption of import quotas. In the long run, Heinberg said the protocol gives the world a better mechanism for managing energy descent than standard market and priced-based solutions. If the transition is left to the market, we’re likely to see very volatile prices that will hinder “adaptation” while the protocol will moderate big price swings. “We need high prices,” he said. “But we need stable high prices – and that’s what the protocol will provide.”
Heinberg: What can Government / Business / Organisations/ Individuals do? Responsible and competent people who have studied the problem of Peak Oil, (including Robert Hirsch and his colleagues) agree that efforts will be needed to create alternative sources of energy, to reduce demand for oil through heightened energy efficiency, and to redesign entire systems (including both cities and the rural agricultural economy) to operate with less petroleum. [C] The Hirsch Report’s methodology involved the examination of three scenarios: Scenario I assumed that action is not initiated until peaking occurs. Scenario II assumed that action is initiated 10 years before peaking. Scenario III assumed action is initiated 20 years before peaking. * JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
78 In all three scenarios, the Hirsch study assumed a “crash program” scale of effort (that is, all the resources of government and industry are marshalled to the tasks of creating supplies of alternative fuels and reducing demand through efficiency measures). The study found that, due to the time required to start efforts and the scale of mitigation required, Scenario I will result in at least 20 years of fuel shortfalls. With 10 years of preparation, a 10-year shortfall is likely. And with 20 years of advance mitigation effort, there is “the possibility” of averting fuel shortages altogether. The Report also concludes “Early mitigation will almost certainly be less expensive than delayed mitigation.” [C] In other words, if global Peak Oil is 20 years away or fewer, or we believe it might be, then we must begin immediately with a full-scale effort to address the problem. [C] Most Americans would understandably prefer to solve the dilemma simply by switching to alternative fuels, thus enabling them to maintain their current habits. But, as we have already noted, there are problems with that strategy. [C] Biofuels (ethanol, wood methanol, and biodiesel) require land area for production and are plagued by the problem of low net-energy yields. According to the calculations of Jeffrey Dukes of the University of Massachusetts, over a hundred tons of ancient plant matter is concentrated in every gallon of gasoline we use today.189 Granted, modern methods of biofuels production are more efficient than nature’s slow means of producing crude oil, but still this analysis should give us pause: trying to replace a substantial fraction of our 20 million barrels per day of national oil consumption with biofuels could potentially overwhelm an agricultural system already destroying topsoil and drawing down ancient aquifers unsustainably. [C] It is possible to produce liquid transportation fuels from coal and natural gas. However, natural gas is itself a problematic fuel in North America (domestic production peaked in 2001), and coal—a lowquality hydrocarbon—would present a host of environmental and practical quandaries if we tried to increase mining sufficiently to replace a significant proportion of our oil budget. In the end, coal is likewise a depleting fossil fuel: while it is often said that we have hundreds of years’ worth of the stuff, that assumes current rates of consumption and ignores variable quality; assuming dramatic increases in consumption (for oil replacement) and taking into account the fact that much coal offers a low energy yield, those centuries shrink to a very few decades.190 [C] Which brings us to the strategies of conservation, efficiency, and curtailment. These clearly present the best opportunities, though efforts along these lines will eventually require significant changes in Americans’ habits and expectations. [C] Our automobiles could be made much more fuel-efficient, though this will require government leadership via higher CAFE standards. But over the long term automobiles and trucks simply aren’t good options for transportation, given their inherent energy inefficiency. Thus the nation will need a much-expanded freight and passenger rail system. Our cities, most of which have been designed for the automobile, need to be made more oriented-oriented and walkable, and provided with light-rail transit systems. Meanwhile agricultural production must be freed, as quickly and completely as possible, from fossil-fuel inputs. All of these efforts will require substantial investment and many years of work. [C]
189 190
“Price of Gas,” ScienCentral News, 28 July, 2005, Gregson Vaux, “The Peak in US Coal Production,” From the Wilderness, 27 May, 2004
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79 If, as the Hirsch Report tells us, the market will be incapable of shifting investment incentives quickly enough away from the old oil-based, energy-guzzling energy infrastructure and toward the new alternatives-based, super-efficient one, then government will have to lead the way through a sustained commitment of effort on a wartime scale. The estimated one to three trillion dollars consumed so far in the invasions and occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq, had they been spent instead on domestic energy security, would probably have represented an appropriate level and rate of funds allocation. [C]
Matt Savinar: What can you do? What you can or will do to prepare for this situation will depend on your age, health, marital status, geographic location, financial situation and other factors too numerous to mention. The best advice I can offer that applies to the widest number of people is to do the following to the best of your ability: [1]. Relocate to an area as least vulnerable to these issues as possible, if doing so is economically feasible for you. If doing so is not economically feasible for you, then simply figure out how you might do best in your current location. As far as what to look for when relocating, consider the following: A) Access to fresh water, B) Arable land on which to grow food C) Access to timber for heating, D) Moderate climate, E) Friendly population [2]. Reallocate your financial assets so that you are as best positioned to handle these issues as you can realistically hope to be. Books by Stephen Leeb and the website http://www.financialsense.com/ are good places to start if you're looking for financial advice on these matters. [3]. Relocalize your lifestyle as much as possible so that you are as least dependent on farflung, petroleum-powered transportation and distribution networks as possible. [4]. Strengthen your body so that you are as least dependent on our petroleum-dependent system of health care as possible. [5]. Solidify any skills and/or social networks you have that might prove valuable in light of these changes. [6]. If you're in shock and what to interact with others about these issues, check out "Running on Empty 3". Understand that being in shock is pretty much "par-for-the course" when it comes to learning about these issues. Trust me when I say it subsides after a while. [7]. If you want to discuss personal preparation with others, check out "Running on Empty 2" and the Planning for the Future Forum on PeakOil.com [8]. If you feel the need to tell friends or family, be forewarned that most people don't take too kindly to this information. Your best bet, in my opinion, is either send them an email with a link to this site and some of the other excellent Peak Oil websites or give them a copy of the documentary End of Suburbia. Note: I sell End of Suburbia on this site so I do stand to profit from my recommendation. I am, however, far from the only person who recommends the film as a tool for introducing others to Peak Oil. There are endless ways you can begin preparing for these matters. What I've listed above are just some things to get you started. I encourage you to check some of the forums/discussion groups listed above so as to discuss these matters with others.
Mike Ruppert: What Should You do? In his Mike Ruppert’s speech THE PARADIGM IS THE ENEMY: The State of the Peak Oil Movement at the Cusp of Collapse: A Speech by Michael C. Ruppert for the Local Solutions to the * JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
80 Energy Dilemma Conference, April 27-29, 2006 in New York City, he points to two leaders pointing the Way: Read Dmitry Orlov’s three part series Post-Soviet Lessons for a Post-American Century, Part 1, Part II, and Part III: Excerpt as stated in speech follows: At the start of his series, Dmitry observed that when he started looking for stories connecting economic collapse to Peak Oil in October 2004 there were 16,300 such documents listed on search engines. Less than a year later, by April 2005 there were 4,220,000. He pointed out correctly that the reason why such stories had not been discussed in the media was attributable to only one cause: denial. Denial. Let’s take a look at just a few of the most important quotes from Dmitry’s essays. You really need to read the entire set. And even though these quotes are clipped from disparate sections, when strung together they speak for themselves admirably and paint a deeply-moving picture. • “Instead, there is much discussion of policy: what ‘we’ should do. The ‘we’ in question is presumably some embodiment of the great American Can-Do Spirit: a brilliantly organized consortium of government agencies, leading universities, research centers, and major corporations, all working together toward the goal of providing plentiful, clean, environmentally safe energy, to fuel another century of economic expansion. Welcome to the sideshow at the end of the universe!” • “The next circle of denial revolves around what must inevitably come to pass if the Goddess of Technology were to fail us: a series of wars over ever-more scarce resources. Paul Roberts, who is very well informed on the subject of peak oil, has this to say: ‘what desperate states have always done when resources turn scarce… [is] fight for them.’ Let us not argue that this has never happened, but did it ever amount to anything more than a futile gesture of desperation? Wars take resources, and, when resources are already scarce, fighting wars over resources becomes a lethal exercise in futility. Those with more resources would be expected to win. I am not arguing that wars over resources will not occur. I am suggesting that they will be futile, and that victory in these conflicts will be barely distinguishable from defeat. I would also like to suggest that these conflicts would be self-limiting: modern warfare uses up prodigious amounts of energy, and if the conflicts are over oil and gas installations, then those installations will get blown up, as has happened repeatedly in Iraq . This will result in less energy being available and, consequently, less warfare.” • “While the United States used to have far more goodwill around the world than the Soviet Union, the ‘evil empire’ gap has narrowed since the Soviet Union disappeared from the scene. Now, in many countries around the world, including Western countries like Sweden , the United States ranks as a bigger threat to peace than Iran or North Korea . In the hated-empire race, the United States is now beginning to look like the champion. Nobody likes a loser, but especially if the loser is a failed superpower. Nobody had any pity for the poor defunct Soviet Union; and nobody will have any pity for poor defunct America either.” • “The United States is now facing a current account deficit that cannot be sustained, a falling currency, and an energy crisis, all at once. It is now the world's largest debtor nation, and most people do not see how it can avoid defaulting on its debt. According to a lot of analysts, it is technically bankrupt, and is being propped up by foreign reserve banks, which hold a lot of dollar-denominated assets, and, for the time being, want to protect the value of their reserves. This game can only go on for so long. Thus, while the Soviet Union deserves honorable mention for going bankrupt first, the gold in this category (pun intended) will undoubtedly go to the United States , for the largest default ever.” • “Both countries replaced family farms with unsustainable, ecologically disastrous industrial agribusiness, addicted to fossil fuels. The American ones work better, as long as energy is cheap, and, after that, probably not at all.” * JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
81 • I’ll have to paraphrase Dmitry on race and violence. But in that section he noted that not only was race not an important stress line in the collapse of the Soviet Union, there were also virtually no firearms in private hands. His advice for minorities in America was to find either an ethnically homogeneous community “while the rest would be well-advised to look for the few communities where inter-ethnic relations have been cemented through integrated living and intermarriage, and where the strange and fragile entity that is multi-ethnic society might have a chance of holding together.” • “Another key difference between the US and the USSR : in the Soviet Union, nobody owned their place of residence. What this meant is that the economy could collapse without causing homelessness: just about everyone went on living in the same place as before. There were no evictions or foreclosures. Everyone stayed put, and this prevented society from disintegrating.” • “One more difference: the place where they stayed put was generally accessible by public transportation, which continued to run during the worst of times. Most of the Soviet-era developments were centrally planned, and central planners do not like sprawl: it is too difficult and expensive to service. Few people owned cars, and even fewer depended on cars for getting around. Even the worst gasoline shortages resulted in only minor inconveniences for most people…” • “Most people in the U.S. cannot survive very long without an income. This may sound curious to some people—how can anyone, anywhere survive without an income? Well, in post-collapse Russia, if you didn't pay rent or utilities—because no-one else was paying them either—and if you grew or gathered a bit of your own food, and you had some friends and relatives to help you out, then an income was not a prerequisite for survival. Most people got by, somehow.” • “A collapsing economy is especially hard on those who are accustomed to prompt, courteous service. In the Soviet Union, most official service was rude and slow, and involved standing in long lines. Many of the products that were in short supply could not be obtained even in this manner, and required something called blat: special, unofficial access or favor. The exchange of personal favors was far more important to the actual functioning of the economy than the exchange of money. To Russians, blat is almost a sacred thing: a vital part of culture that holds society together. It is also the only part of the economy that is collapse-proof, and, as such, a valuable cultural adaptation.” • And finally, Dmitry wrote, “In all, I expect drugs and alcohol to become one of the largest short-term post-collapse entrepreneurial opportunities in the United States , along with asset stripping, and security.”
The other leader being: POST CARBON And now we come to the second man I would like to honor tonight, Julian Darley of Global Public Media and the Post Carbon Institute. Put simply, the Post Carbon Institute’s mission is to save lives. Put a little more succinctly, the Post Carbon Institute’s mission is to work with local groups around North America and the world to facilitate their construction of their own lifeboats, specifically tailored to the strengths and weaknesses faced by each unique locale that presents itself for help. Since beginning its work in the second half of 2003, the Post Carbon Institute has fostered the creation of more than 90 local groups all over the US and Canada, as well as in the UK, Australia, Sweden and even Yemen. It has grown explosively as small, aware groups of citizens have seen the wisdom of Julian’s approach which begins with one of the first rules in any survival situation: Let the people on the ground make the decisions according to their own judgment, in their own place. Instead of 90 Post Carbon groups around the world there should be 9,000. These are the kinds of numbers we need to see if we are to really make a difference in helping to decide who eats and stays warm, who lives and who dies. * JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
82 If you have not yet visited the Post Carbon web site, you must. If this conference has motivated you to start preparing for the challenges that lie ahead, you need to begin by accepting the head start that the Post Carbon Institute has given you. Richard Heinberg— another great hero of this movement—has said, “The Post Carbon Institute is clearly the first medic on the scene—the first organized response to Peak Oil.”
In FTW ECONOMIC ALERT #4: THE ABYSS AWAITS With Special Update by Michael C. Ruppert, Ruppert writes: In just a little over a month, Aaron Russo’s new documentary, America: From Freedom to Fascism will open in selected theaters in just a few states. A popular movement is growing to raise funds to expand the number of screens where it will show. It was just rated “Four-Star” by CBS and described as making Fahrenheit 911 look like Bambi. Catherine Austin Fitts is in this movie and so am I and a great many other American economic heroes, teachers and liberators. I have seen the film twice and am eagerly awaiting a final cut. If what you read here is not enough to make you take action of some kind then this film all by itself would make a dead man get out of the grave to take action. Its subject matter is the private ownership of the Federal Reserve, its illegality and the fact that the 16th Amendment (income taxes) was never legally ratified by the states. Only you can change the way money works. Forget about writing letters to your congressperson. Forget about letters to the editor. As Thomas Jefferson reminded us, a little revolution is a good thing every now and again. There are many ways to revolt but the simplest will not impose upon you the discomfort of actually talking to other people. God forbid. What you can do, what you must do to start your own personal revolution and liberation is to: Wherever possible, stop spending money with major corporations trading their stock on Wall Street. Dump your AOL email account and go with a smaller company. Stop feeding the tapeworm because now you are only enabling it to eat you faster. What we have told you here is that there are no longer any “biological” restraints to keep it from eating you completely. Withdraw your 401(k) and other investments from large, US dollar-denominated stocks. Whatever you lose doing this will be nothing compared to what’s coming. Put at least some of your money into precious metals. (Pay no attention to gold’s recent price drops. Gold is a long-term investment and still paying off handsomely.) The trend is still way up and any gold below $600 an ounce is a terrific buy. Silver is also a solid buy. I still see gold at $800 before year’s end and possibly at $1,000 by the middle of next year. Restructure your portfolio into local investments, taking special care to open bank accounts with small locally-owned banks. Get rid of – by whatever means possible – credit cards from major banking institutions; especially those with variable rates. If you have a large portfolio and need more information or advice on how to restructure, please visit Catherine Austin Fitts’ web site, Solari. Check the web and your neighborhood and see what’s being done with local and regional alternative currencies in your area. Regional and local currencies will save more lives than a thousand freeze-dried survival meals. Do whatever you can to support local agriculture and farming. Start a vegetable garden yourself. It doesn’t sound so revolutionary, does it? But in reality it is. Perhaps it sounds like too much work. * JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
83
Financially: Moving to a Local Renewable Energy Financial Paradigm Before we can understand the solution we need to look at the problem: In A new kind of money, by Julian Darley, on AlterNet, he writes: Today's money is based on the belief that it's worth something. Crazy, no? Why not back your dollar in sustainable energy produced in your hometown? The decline in the availability of cheap energy is likely to be accompanied by an equally ominous possibility of world financial meltdown. That we are facing both of these threats now is not an accident: energy and financial stability are intimately linked. I believe the solutions for dealing with these twinned threats are equally linked. To build an environmentally sustainable, monetarily stable world, we need to create an economy in which locally produced energy provides the backing for local currencies. Let's start with energy first. Energy decline will soon challenge just about every common notion of life that we have developed during the industrial era. Most of what we have built in the globalizing world of the last half century depends on cheap energy, particularly oil and natural gas. After years of oil-industry financed obfuscation, there is a broad scientific consensus that our profligate use of fossil fuels is producing global warming. And despite similar oil industry denials, there is a growing consensus that we are rapidly approaching Peak Oil, after which world oil output will go into permanent decline. (The United States experienced Peak Oil in 1971.) After global Peak Oil, oil will still be available, but at ever increasing prices. To lessen the impact of global warming and the inflationary pressures of Peak Oil, we should be moving as rapidly as possible to an energy system based on locally based renewable energy production. (20 July 2006)
More information on Local and Regional Alternative Currencies are at: An Article on Zmag on The Potential of Local Currency Ithaca Hours, Local Currency for Ithaca, NY. LETS Systems, as designed by Michael Linton The E.F. Schumacher Society’s Local Currencies Page SANE’s Alternative Currencies Links Page SANE’S Community Exchange System (CES) The New Economics Foundation, publish reports which are well worth reading if you're interested in environmental/sustainable economics. James Robertsons and Jospeh Hubers 100-page book, "Creating New Money: A Monetary Reform for the Information Age", proposes some changes to our economies that could prove handy in a post peak oil world.
Financially: What are Others Doing? Canadian Government: In CanadaChanging: Ecological Fiscal Reform, by Amy Taylor, she writes:
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
84 Fiscal policy refers to the ways that governments collect (e.g., through taxes, royalties and user fees) and spend (e.g., through grants, tax credits, exemptions, refunds and rebates, and accelerated capital cost allowances) money. When these fiscal components are adjusted to better integrate environmental costs and benefits, ecological fiscal reform (EFR) is achieved. Financial incentives for environmentally beneficial behaviour are provided and economic, environmental and health benefits can result. There is increasing interest in the use of EFR in Canada and elsewhere. Indeed, the OECD Environmental Strategy for the First Decade of the 21st Century, which Canada has adopted, calls for governments to give priority to ecological fiscal reform. Already in Canada there are a number of successful and innovative EFR policies in place. ...The federal government also has a very successful wind power production incentive, the WPPI. This incentive provides financial support to electricity produced from wind: an initial incentive payment of 1.2¢/kWh of production, gradually declining to 0.8¢/kWh, was introduced for qualifying projects commissioned between April 2002 and 2007. The wind power production incentive has been instrumental to the growth of the wind industry in Canada. The original program to support 1,000 MW of wind power was fully subscribed two years ahead of schedule in 2005. The quadrupling of the program in 2005 is supposed to lead to 4,000 MW of wind power by 2010, but it will be fully subscribed a year or two early. At the provincial level, both British Columbia and Quebec are leaders in the use of ecological fiscal reform in Canada. British Columbia has tax breaks for bikes, alternatively fueled vehicles, materials used to conserve energy, and energy efficient furnaces, boilers and heat pumps. The tax incentives are automatically received at the time of purchase. These breaks have facilitated increased purchases of eligible technologies including a six-fold increase in qualifying boilers between 2000 and 2005 from 116 to 689 and an increase in the number of efficient furnaces from 2,457 in 2000 to 8,671 in 2005. In a precedent-setting initiative, the Quebec government recently announced the introduction of Canada’s first carbon tax. The revenue from the tax will provide finances to a Green Fund, used to support actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. At the policy level, organizations like the Green Budget Coalition and the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy are pointing the way to further options for the future. (Amy Taylor is Director of the Ecological Fiscal Reform Program at the Pembina Institute.) (19 July 2006)
Factors All South Africans Need to Focus our Attention and Energy on: What we really must do is address the underlying ecological dilemma—resource depletion, habitat destruction, and population pressure.
Limit population: Limiting population is a prime way to limit demand. I don't mean killing people off; I mean reducing the population slowly by reducing the human birth rate in humane ways, without the imposition of authoritarian rules, but with education and awareness. We don’t simply need to reduce our population to limit demand. We need to do so for all the reasons related to Peak Oil, not to mention the millions of children abused, and orphaned who are brought into this world and our nation, as ‘unwanted’.
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
85 We need to change our paradigm of ‘large family = ‘wealthy’ to ‘loving small, intimate family, where the entire family cares for one another, and has time to spend with each other etc. = wealthy’ There is absolutely nothing ‘lovingly’ about bringing a child into this world, for which you are not going to have time to spend with it, to nurture it or care for it, and get to know it; simply to use as some kind of trophy to live up to the Jones’s etc.
Implement an Urgent New Deal Plan to Develop Alternative Energies: Use our remaining hydrocarbon energy platform to develop alternative, renewable energy sources while we can still do so. Use alternatives now — incentivize people and markets to get alternative solutions working now, not later.
Reinvent the way Money Works: Some of us now know what the rest of us desperately need to know: our minds are not to be trusted. Our minds themselves are merely model makers. As a species of beings, we are model makers, at once unawares and wary. Models are dangerous. They sometimes suffocate their builder. People become lost in belief and never return. Models of the mind cut us off from the nourishment of commonplace experience. The key to the revolution is to become a conscious maker of models, and thereby transcend the constraint of any single model. This allows for a life of constant creation, which is the best increase in quality of life a person could dream up, but it is tough on the establishment. We can learn to laugh at the beliefs we have been taking too seriously. As we can understand the inside joke of meditators (Hey! I'm meditating! … wasn't I.), we can catch ourselves in the very act of moving from experience to category, thereby not being fooled by categories anymore.
A Good place to start is by joining or forming local alternative bartering or similar currencies. (See above) plus:
Save Energy: To buy ourselves the necessary time, we must drastically reduce our current squandering of hydrocarbon energy. Use less — everything requires energy to be built and transported (and usually to be used too), so buying and using less stuff uses less energy.
Foster Local Communities:
We must develop smaller, self-sufficient, community-based economic units: – Practicing Radical Honesty, by Brad Blanton, Ph.D., Localize and decentralize — for instance, Congressional Candidate for VA -reverse the trend of globalisation, which will reduce transportation requirements. We will have to grow a lot more of our food in the regions where we live. That won’t be easy. A lot of our best agricultural land close to our towns and cities has been paved over. A lot of knowledge has been lost. We are going to have to reconstruct local economies, local networks of interdependency. Develop Community Vegetable Gardens: Lobby communities & plant up vacant lots, apartment complexes with suitable roofs. Operation Johnny Appleseed: Save your apple seeds, pear seeds, peach pits, grape pips, cherry pips, etc. Save them and plant them wherever you find a likely spot. Learn about permaculture.
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
86 Farmer's Markets and CSA's: Create and implement local Farmer's Market or Community Supported Agriculture (CSA). CSA's are farms dedicated to serving their subscribers. For a yearly subscription price, members are given a percentage of the produce. Subscribers sometimes pitch in with the harvesting and other activities. The farmers usually accompany their produce with advice for food preservation. Community Transportation Networks: This is an idea, which is bound to become more popular as gas prices go up. Form a community car pool, not just for the commute to and from work, but to shopping centers and elsewhere. You can set up a local network to match up people who need to go to specific places at specific times, so that they can share rides. Bicycle Co-ops and Bicycle Trails: Bicycle co-ops can maintain a fleet of bicycles for the use of members, or for temporary rental by non-members. The co-ops maintain the bicycles, collect them and return them to distribution centers. Bicycle co-ops can lobby local communities for bicycle trails and donate time to the maintenance of those trails. Support Local Businesses, particularly Co-ops: While supporting local businesses, press to ensure that those businesses are ethical and responsible. Form Co-ops: There is no end to the essential services, which can be provided through co-ops. Co-ops give a community control over the provision of necessities. Organize Community Activities: Build networks of people who are no longer strangers, but real neighbours. Community entertainments such as barn dances, music and art festivals or community theatres not only provide entertainment, they provide venues where people can socialize. Here you can meet like-minded folks who would be interested in taking part in the other activities mentioned here. These concerts and festivals also provide forums for local artists to reach an audience and/or inspire them with visions of where they can take their community. Community Refurbishing Co-ops: Such groups can help to remodel homes for greater energy efficiency, erect or refurbish community centers, or possibly erect shelters for the homeless. Community Energy Production Co-ops: Such organizations can provide local, community owned and maintained, low level energy production. Depending on local conditions, potential power sources could be wind turbines, solar cells, hydroelectric, or even geothermal (in select areas). Ecovillages: This is the eventual goal towards which we must all direct our activities if we are to have a free, equitable and just society. That is, a society where the quality of life makes life worth living and where we can reside happy and contented to watch our children grow up in a positive and healthy environment.
Get out of Debt Educate & Raise awareness: Talk about the issue!
NOTE: If none of these, or too little of the AFOREMENTIONED 7 POINTS efforts are attempted and achieved, we will, at some point, die off to a population level that is sustainable.
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
87 FTW described the endgame of this irony in one of Mr. Ruppert’s favourite essays of all time Globalcorp, ending with: We must all do what we must do and do it now. My conscience is clear that I have done all that is possible to warn. When a tsunami is coming there is a point at which one must stop trying to warn the indifferent and just get out of the way and help others who are also trying to get out of the way. For those who now see this, FTW hopes to become at least a partial bridge to your safety. In order to do that, other bridges must be abandoned.
And in The Paradigm is the Enemy he end with: Let us not forget that in order to get to the Post-carbon world that is inevitable we must first survive the collapse and the die off that is inevitable. The challenges of the transition period will be completely different from the challenges of living in a world without cheap energy. It is the almost complete failure of the Peak Oil movement in the United States—and around the world— to grasp, ponder or even acknowledge these transitions that are pointing to a needed evolution in our approach to education, research, networking, and organizing. Psychologically it is always easier to plan along the lines of a single challenge rather than to try to prepare for chaos on a fluid, multi-dimensional field where serious challenges may be completely different from one day to the next. But the easiest path is not always the best choice. The maxim that I live by is that what we need today, right now, is not a plan, but options. Plans do not bend well. They tend to break. And with breaks in plans come break downs in function. The only plan that I live by today—the only plan that I recommend to our subscribers—is to increase one’s options as much as possible and to selectively choose those options based upon what is happening in the world now and what those developments might mean for the future. I would submit to you tonight that perhaps a more important question that needs to be answered first is: “How do we get from a civilization where collapse and dislocation is just beginning to a place where “I believe in God, only I spell it Nature.” – we can prepare to transition away from oil and gas Frank Lloyd Wright – when the time is appropriate”? John Lennon once wrote that “Life is what happens to you while you were busy making other plans.” This movement needs to reflect on that. A dear friend of mine, Dr. Faiz Khan, once said that a paradigm is what you think about something before you think about it. If the global economic paradigm that we live under dictates infinite growth, then we must disengage individually and by community from that paradigm. If the activist paradigm that we live under says that we must slow down the process of reform and planning to make room for all and offend no one, no matter how much they may slow down or confuse the process, then we must disengage from that paradigm. This is no longer about protracted—and almost always ineffective—social change. This is about survival. I refuse to die, and I refuse to encourage anyone else to risk death or to slow down for or argue with people who are either incapable of understanding, too lazy to do the necessary homework, or too tightly wedded to old ideas. Are these old ideas and cherished values and principles now luxuries or necessities? We will each make our own decisions, and in a world that will give us near instantaneous feedback. We will suffer or prosper, we will stop or continue, we will live and die accordingly. Buddhist philosophy teaches us that life is suffering. It is amazing how much joy and liberation can be achieved from that viewpoint. It has to do with lowering expectations so that little pieces of joy and cause for celebration are more accessible to our hearts and minds. * JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
88 Judeo-Christianity, as practiced in America, tends to make us all believe that if we are spiritually and morally correct, we will be rewarded with abundance. As Dmitry Orlov observed, Christianity in other parts of the world teaches that the path to salvation and redemption lies through suffering and denial. Which is it then? If the spiritual or religious paradigm that you live under influences your thinking in either direction, then that paradigm is your enemy and my enemy. What is it that you think about before you think? Find it, identify it, and discard anything that is not a survival necessity. The only thing that the universe is offering the human species now is the opportunity to change—to evolve…or to perish. Perhaps there is a new understanding of God awaiting those who survive. I have long held the personal belief that religion is for people who are afraid of going to Hell and that true spirituality is for those who have already been there. What I do know, because I have faced many survival challenges in my life, is that the less baggage one takes into any survival situation, the more likely one is to survive. Perhaps this philosophy is best summed up by one of my favorite quotes of all time. In his classic science fiction novel Dune, Frank Herbert wrote:
I must not fear. Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past, I will turn the inner eye to see its path. When the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.
And as he says so often: As M. King Hubbert wrote, and as Catherine Austin Fitts teaches, and as (Ruppert) has said for so long, “Until you change the way money works, you change nothing.”
If having read so far you are ready to disengage, at least intellectually, from the global paradigm, of attempting to build more alternatively powered energy luxury liners, and are ready to start building your own lifeboat, I invite you to join us at PeakOil_RSA PeakOil_RSA is for individuals who have accepted the inevitability of world peak oil production and subsequent collapse of the current consumption and growth-based economy. We are focussed as a networking center for South Africans, focussing on many Peak Oil issues and sub-topics. We are open to anyone interested in how the issues of Peak Oil, rising energy costs, better community cohesion, can be addressed within South Africa. We would hope that this forum could be used for information about energy efficiency techniques like solar, wind, and better building techniques, sustainable agriculture within our bio-region, etc. Some of the many possible topics of discussion: Ecovillages and agrarian societies; Managing true renewable energy sources; Optimal post-peak oil jobs; Lessons from existing and past tribal/native groups; New economic structures; Alternative currencies planning and implementation; Current Peak Oil Related News; etc.
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
89 Recent PeakOil_RSA listserve posts include:- Koreans confront their oil addiction An Open Letter to Greg Palast on Peak Oil, by Richard Heinberg FTW & Businessweek Financial & Economic Alert_June 14, 2006 Money & Markets_ Oil hits record high! Gold hits my signal! What Next? Global Warming's Real Inconvenient Truth Countries electricity consumption stats per year (kWH's). Money & Markets: Danger: Japanese Rate Hike July 14th! FTW Excerpt_Alan Greenspan & Peak Oil + Suggestions for Dealing with Peak Oil Advice from a Right-Winger_Go to Venezuela, You Idiot! NYT_On the Road Again, Where BioDiesel Is a Rising Star Oil Analysts Raise Price Forecasts on Demand Growth WashPost_The False Hope of Biofuels_Biofuels-or is it biofools? Frances Boyle - MidEast Agenda: Oil, Dollar Hegemony & Islam NYT_The Energy Challenge Hemp as a biofuel Costs of Athabasca tar-sands project could hit $20-billion Bloomberg_Oil Touches Record $75.40/Bbl After North Korea Tests Money & Markets_Economic Weapon of Mass Destruction ‘Peak Oil is Here!": Oil Ind | Greenspan (x2) | Libby Lefties! | Who next? Green_Newsweek_Windmills, lowenergy homes, recycling, etc BoE warns_Major global economic shock could rock UK banks MN_ Peak Oil Resolution + Replacing Lawns with Veg Gardens SchNews: Wake Up! It's Yer Empire's Tottering...: Bi-Polar Disorder Designing Energy Descent Pathways: One community's attempt... If you wish to subscribe, either subscribe online at PeakOil_RSA’s listserv website, or send an empty email to:-- PeakOil_RSA-subscribe@yahoogroups.com P.S: For those interested in joining, forming or information about alternative local currencies, visit the SANE’s Community Exchange Services (CES), in Capetown (RSA).
[C]_See Bibliography Primary Sources Richard Heinberg
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18 July 2006_PeakOil_RSA_Briefing Paper
VII. WHY ARE SO MANY PEOPLE WHO HAVE HEARD OF PEAK OIL, IN DENIAL?
A Biological Evolutionary Perspective to Denial: Wakening from our Meme-Dream A Psychological Perspective to Denial about Peak Oil: Surfacing Our Mental Models: How to See Why We are Thinking What We are Thinking o ‘Having’ Frame of Orientation: Man in Capitalistic Society o ‘Having’ an Object of Devotion: Industrial Religion o ‘Having’ an Identity/Personality: The 20th Century Marketing Character o ‘Having’ vs ‘Being’: As a Frame of Orientation and an Object of Devotion o The Work of Stanley Milgram: [Having / Obedience to Authority] vs [Being / Rebellion] o The Sufi Levels of Consciousness: The Path from Denial to Acceptance and Transcendence: Mental Model Growth from Having (Belief) to Being (Reason)
Matt Savinar’s answer is neatly tied into evolution, and the hardwired prioritising of short-term survival over long-term survival and the importance of a team mentality. He mentions how people are perfectly willing to believe things that they know are not true, if it increases their chances of short-term survival. He gives an example of why the brain has a way of deleting ideas outside the norm: [A] Bob finds out about Peak Oil in all of its grimness Now Bob can’t socialize/network with his co-workers as smoothly and effectively as before because all they talk about is stuff like their Mcmansions, their SUVs, their wives’ boob jobs, their kid’s IPODs, etc. Bob is now a less well integrated and effective member of his team Bob’s team is now not as effective as before because not everybody is on the same page Bob suffers
He goes on to say that the reason that most people who are interested in the topic of peak oil came to be that way because the idea was not outside pre-existing agendas in their minds. It is true many “peak-oilers” were against pollution, global warming, suburbia, and consumerism. For people whose lives are caught up in the rat race, competing to keep up with the Joneses, and the race to accumulate a “bigger everything” it may be much harder to convince. For most there is no “advantage” to believing in the coming of peak oil, so the brain deletes the info. [A]
A Biological Evolutionary Perspective to Denial: Awakening from Our MemeDream The term meme was coined by Richard Dawkins, Professor of the Public Understanding of Science at Oxford University, in his 1976 book The Selfish Gene. Memes are habits, skills, songs, stories, or any * JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
91 other kind of information that is copied from person to person. Memes, like genes, are replicators. That is, they are information that is copied with variation and selection, by imitation, teaching and other methods, and they compete for space in our memories and for the chance to be copied again. Large groups of memes that are copied and passed on together are called co-adapted meme complexes, or memeplexes. Because only some of the variants survive, memes (and hence human cultures) evolve. Meme plexes would be concept’s such as Peak Oil, all the religions, ‘western civilisation’ etc. [D] According to memetics, our minds and cultures are designed by natural selection acting on memes, just as organisms are designed by natural selection acting on genes. A central question for memetics is therefore ‘why has this meme survived?’ Our suitable question here can be ‘why is the ‘infinite growth’ meme surviving?,’ ‘why is the Peak Oil memeplex not spreading as fast and as vicious as the infinite growth memeplex?” [D] Some succeed because they are genuinely useful to us, while others use a variety of tricks to get themselves copied. Some memes are almost entirely exploitative, or viral, in nature, including chain letters and e-mail viruses. Others can be somewhere in-between, sometimes useful, and sometimes destructive. Exploitative memes consist of a “copy-me” instruction backed up with threats and promises. Religions have a similar structure and this is why Dawkins refers to them as ‘viruses of the mind’. Many religions threaten hell and damnation, promise heaven or salvation, and insist that their followers pass on their beliefs to others. [D] In determining whether the ‘Denial to the reality of Peak Oil/Attachment to Principles of Infinite Growth/Consumption of Western Civilisation’ vs. the ‘Peak Oil’ memeplexes are useful or destructive and exploitative, we can enquire whether each memeplex is backed up with overt, covert or subtle threats and promises. But before we do so, let’s first awake from our Meme Dreams. [D] In a Waking from the Meme Dream,191 Dr. Susan Blackmore says: … Finally clues come from science. The most obvious (and scary) conclusion from modern neuroscience is that there is simply no one inside the brain. The more we learn about the way the brain functions the less it seems to need a central controller, a little person inside, a decider of decisions or an experiencer of experiences. These are just fictions - part of the story the brain tells itself about a self within (Churchland and Sejnowski, 1992; Dennett, 1991). …….. Understanding the fantastic process of natural selection we can see how our human bodies came to be the way they are. But what about our minds? Evolutionary psychology does not easily answer my questions. For example, why do we think all the time? From a genetic point of view this seems extremely wasteful - and animals that waste energy don't survive. The brain uses about 20% of the body’s energy while weighing only 2%. If we were thinking useful thoughts, or solving relevant problems there might be some point, but mostly we don't seem to be. So 191
Waking from the Meme Dream, Paper presented at the Psychology of Awakening: International Conference on Buddhism, Science and Psychotherapy, at Dartington, 7 – 10 November 1996, Dr. Susan Blackmore of the Dept. of Psychology, Univ. of the West of England
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92 why can’t we just sit down and not think? Why do we believe in a self that does not exist? Someone may yet explain this in evolutionary terms, but at least superficially it appears pointless. Why construct a false idea of self, with all its mechanisms protecting self-esteem and its fear of failure and loss, when from the biological point of view it is the body that needs protecting. Note that if we thought of ourselves as the entire organism there would be no problem, but we don’t - rather, we seem to believe in a separate self; something that is in charge of the body; something that has to be protected for its own sake. Like many other scientists I would love to find a principle as simple, as beautiful and as elegant as natural selection that would explain the nature of the mind. I think there is one. It is closely related to natural selection. Although it has been around for twenty years, it has not yet been put fully to use. It is the theory of memes.
After explaining the History and Theory of Meme’s, she concludes: Once you start to think this way a truly frightening prospect opens up. We have all become used to thinking of our bodies as biological organisms created by evolution. Yet we still like to think of our selves as something more. We are in charge of our bodies, we run the show, we decide which ideas to believe in and which to reject. But do we really? If you begin to think about selfish memes it becomes clear that our ideas are in our heads because they are successful memes. American philosopher Dan Dennett (1995) concludes that a “person” is a particular sort of animal infested with memes. In other words you and I and all our friends are the products of two blind replicators, the genes and the memes. I find these ideas absolutely stunning. Potentially we might be able to understand all of mental life in terms of the competition between memes, just as we can understand all biological life in terms of the competition between genes. What I want to do now, finally, is apply the ideas of memetics to the questions I asked at the beginning. What are we waking up from and how do we do it?
And then she finally asks the question: Who am I? I suppose you can tell by now what my answer to this one is going to be. We are just co-adapted memecomplexes. We, our precious, mythical “selves”, are just groups of selfish memes that have come together by and for themselves. This is a truly startling idea and, in my experience, the better you understand it, the more fascinating and weird it becomes. It dismantles our ordinary way of thinking about ourselves and raises bizarre questions about the relationship of ourselves to our ideas. To understand it we need to think about how and why memes get together into groups at all. Thus we all become unwitting hosts to an enormous baggage of useless and even harmful memecomplexes.
To conclude, among many others two memeplexes – autonomous parasites in our brains – are fighting for our brains ‘replication’ neural network capacity, the ‘right’ to use our brains and bodies to replicate themselves from mind to mind. In deciding which memeplex is useful for our bodies future survival, or destructive and exploitative, we need to hold in the back of our minds the enquiry: Is the ‘Energy Civilisation’ or ‘Peak Oil’ memeplex backed up with covert, overt or subtle threats and promises, or based on facts and reality? Another question you may ask about it’s destructiveness or usefulness is: does the memeplex encourage critical thinking and constant enquiry to substantiate it’s claims, or does the memeplex insist on obedience, submission and conformity? [D]
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Psychological Perspectives to Denial about Peak Oil: Surfacing Our Mental Models: How to see why we are thinking what we are thinking. Having vs. Being Memeplexes ‘Having’ Frame of Orientation: Man in Capitalistic Society In The Sane Society, social psychologist Erich Fromm192 said: What is so deceptive about the state of mind of the members of a society is the "consensual validation" of their concepts. It is naively assumed that the fact that the majority of people share certain ideas or feelings proves the validity of these ideas and feelings. Nothing is further from the truth. Consensual validation as such has no bearing whatsoever on reason or mental health. Just as there is a "folie 'a deux" there is a "folie 'a millions." The fact that millions of people share the same vices virtues, the fact that they share so many errors does not make the errors to be truths, and the fact that millions of people share the same forms of mental pathology does not make these people sane. ….. Yet many psychiatrists and psychologists refuse to entertain the idea that society as a whole may be lacking in sanity. They hold that the problem of mental health in a society is only that of a number of "unadjusted" individuals, and not that of a possible unadjustment of the culture itself. This book deals with the latter problem; not with individual pathology, but with the PATHOLOGY OF NORMALCY, particularly with the pathology of contemporary Western society. Man in Capitalistic Society … The alienated person, (which Capitalistic Society goes to great lengths to craft193) ..., cannot be healthy. Since he experiences himself as a thing, an investment, to be manipulated by himself and by others, he is lacking in a sense of self. This lack of self creates deep anxiety. The anxiety engendered by confronting him with the abyss of nothingness is more terrifying than even the tortures of hell. In the vision of hell, I am punished and tortured -- in the vision of nothingness I am driven to the borders of madness -- because I cannot say "I" any more. If the modern age has been rightly called the age of anxiety, it is primarily because of this anxiety engendered by the lack of self. Inasmuch as "I am as you desire me" -- I am NOT; I am anxious, dependent on approval of others; constantly trying to please. The alienated person feels inferior whenever he suspects himself of not being in line. Since his sense of worth is based on approval as the reward for conformity, he feels naturally threatened in his sense of self and in his self-esteem by any feeling, thought or action, which could be suspected of being a deviation. Yet, inasmuch as he IS human and not an automaton, he cannot help deviating, hence he must feel afraid of disapproval all the time. As a result he has to try all the harder to conform, to be approved of, to be successful. Not the voice of his conscience gives him strength and security but the feeling of not having lost the close touch with the herd.
Is the Capitalist Industrial society a useful or destructive memeplex to individual personal happiness? Does it encourage enquiry, of its tenets? Does it require conformity and obedience? Is it backed up with covert, overt promises and threats, to encourage obedience to its tenets?
Renowned Social Psychologist, Erich Fromm is the author of Fear from Freedom (1941), The Art of Loving (1956), Marx’s Concept of Man, To Have or To Be, The Art of Being, On Being Human, The Art of Listening, The Essential Fromm, The Dogma of Christ and others. 193 The Sane Society, by Erich Fromm; To Have or To Be, by Erich Fromm, 192
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Having an Object of Devotion: Industrial ‘Religion’ In To Have or To Be, social psychologist Erich Fromm says: ‘Religion’ as used here refers to any group-shared system of thought and action that offers the individual a frame of orientation and an object of devotion. This definition of ‘religion’ does not tell us anything about it’s specific content. Is their religion conducive to the development of destructiveness or of love, of domination or solidarity, does it further their power to reason or paralyse it. A specific religion, provided it is effective in motivating conduct, is not a sum total of doctrines and beliefs; it is rooted in a specific character structure of the individual and, inasmuch as it is the religion of a group, in the social character. Thus our religious attitude may be considered an aspect of our character structure, for we are what we are devoted to, and what we are devoted to is what motivates our conduct. Often however, individuals are not even aware of the real objects of their personal devotion and mistake their ‘official’ beliefs for their real, though secret religion. If, for instance, a man worships power, while professing a religion of love, the religion of power is his secret religion, while his so-called official religion, for example, Christianity, is only an ideology. Societies have been organized upon two opposing principles: patriarchal and matriarchal. Matriarchal is centered around the figure of the loving mother, whose love is unconditional and demonstrated by mercy and compassion. Patriarchal love, on the contrary, is conditional; it depends on the achievements and good behaviour of the child. Father’s love can be lost, but also regained by repentance and renewed submission. Father’s love is justice. "Creative Morality: Where there is to be creative action, it is quite beside the point to discuss what we should or should not do in order to be right or good. A mind that is single and sincere is not interested in being good, in conducting relations with other people so as to live up to a rule. Nor, on the other hand, is it interested in being free, in acting perversely just to prove its independence. It's interest is not in itself, but in the people and problems of which it is aware; these are "itself." It acts, not according to the rules, but according to the circumstances of the moment, and the "Well" it wishes others is not security but liberty." -- Alan W. Watts, in The
The two principles, motherly and fatherly, correspond not only to the presence of a masculine and feminine side in any human being but specifically to the need for mercy and justice and justice. … Luther established a purely patriarchal form of Christianity in Northern Europe, the essence of this new social character was submission under patriarchal authority, with work as the only way to obtain love and approval. Behind the façade of Christianity arose a new secret religion, “industrial religion,” that is rooted in the character structure of modern society, but is not recognized as “religion.” The industrial religion is completely incompatible with genuine Christianity. It reduces people to servants of the economy and of the machinery that their own hands build.
The industrial religion had its basis in a new social character. It’s center was fear of and submission to powerful male Wisdom of Insecurity: A Message for An authorities, cultivation of a sense of guilt for disobedience, Age of Anxiety -dissolution of the bonds of human solidarity by the supremacy of self-interest and mutual antagonism. The “sacred” in industrial religion was work, property, profit, and power…
Having an Identity/Personality: The 20th Century Marketing Character In To Have to To Be, Erich Fromm extensively describes the myriad of differences between living within the frame of orientation of being and having. Brief examples:--
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Exercising Authority Speaking Self Image Learning
Conversing
Reading
Knowledge Sex Faith Love Security Death
Time
Relationship
Having Orientation (Alienated)
Being Orientation (Integrated)
To have authority I have a happy marriage. I have a problem. I have insomnia I am = what I have and what I consume Accumulation of collection of statements as ‘intellectual property’. Content not part of individual system of thought. Fear of changing an opinion because it is a possession and hence loss would be an impoverishment. Rely on the opinion they have. Student obtains cultural property, at end certifying the student as having the minimum amount. Having Knowledge: I have knowledge Having sex Entry ticket to join a large group of people, to have a sense of ‘belonging’ Having love implies control, possession, confining Having security relies on external factors, money, possessions etc. Fear of loss of security from loss of possession, including possession of ego’, i.e. existence. Having exists only in time: past, present and future. Time governs. In industrial society, time rules supreme, our ruler. “Time is money” Having mode is antagonistic. I have leads to I want more, I want most. Greed is natural outcome of having orientation relationship. Habitually results in desire as sexual possession.
Being an authority I am happily married. I am troubled. I cannot sleep. I am = being as a process of becoming Process of interacting with information, via active listening and receiving and personal change Respond spontaneously, being in the conversation as it follows it’s own path. Rely on that they are alive and something new will be born every minute. A conversation between the author and reader. Student questions and ‘speaks’ to the author… certification by an outside authority is irrelevant. Knowing: I know Being sexy, an attitude, way of being An inner orientation, being faithful, a process. Being loving: bringing to life, increasing aliveness, process of self-renewing. Being secure relies on inner factors, selfknowledge, self-worth No fear of loss, of either physical or ego possession, only a being process of change into a new dimension Being exists in the here and now. It is not necessarily outside of time, but time is not the dimension that governs being. Here and now is timelessness. Being mode is present. Person is enjoyable, funny, sad, interesting. Does not habitually result in desire as sexual possession.
The authoritarian-obsessive-hoarding character that had begun to develop in the 16th century, and continued to the dominant character structure at least in the middle classes until the end of the 19th century was slowly blended with or replaced by the marketing character. It is based on experiencing oneself as a commodity, and one’s value not as “use value” but as “exchange value”. The living being becomes a commodity on the “personality market”… Success depends largely on how well persons sell themselves on the market, how well they get their personalities across, how nice a “package” they are; whether they are “cheerful,” “sound,” “aggressive,” “reliable,” “ambitious”; furthermore, what their family backgrounds are, what clubs they belong to, and whether they know the “right” people. The aim of their personality: to be in demand. What shapes their attitude to themselves is their ability to “put their personality across” in competition with many others in order to have success. The marketing personality is not concerned with his or her life and happiness, but with becoming salable. The aim of the marketing character is complete adaptation, so as to be desirable under all conditions of the personality market. They do not even have ego’s to hold onto, that belong to them that do not change. For they constantly change their egos, according to the principle: “I am as you desire me.” * JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
96 They have little serious interest in philosophical questions, such as why one lives, and why one is going in this direction rather than in another. Their identity rests upon their participation in the corporation. The marketing character avoids feelings, because they interfere with the character’s main purpose: functioning according to the logic of the “megamachine” of which they are a part, without asking any questions except how well they function, as indicated by their advancement in the bureaucracy. The marketing character loves to buy and to consume, yet is little attached to what he buys. What matters is the prestige or the comfort things give, but things per se have no substance. They are utterly expendable, along with friends or lovers, who are expendable, too, since no deeper ties exist to any of them.
Does it sound like the result of the Industrial Religion Memeplex is useful to individual personal happiness? Does it encourage enquiry or critical analysis of its tenets? Does it require conformity and obedience, submission and acquiescence? Does it attain conformity – at the individual’s expense – by means of covert, overt promises and threats? It is a useful memeplex or an exploitative destructive memeplex?
Excerpt from Ishmael, by Daniel Quinn: Ishmael (the gorilla) thought for a moment. "Among the people of your culture, which want to destroy the world?" "Which want to destroy it? As far as I know, no one specifically wants to destroy the world." "And yet you do destroy it, each of you. Each of you contributes daily to the destruction of the world." "Yes, that's so." "Why don't you stop?" I shrugged. "Frankly, we don't know how." "You're captives of a civilizational system that more or less compels you to go on destroying the world in order to live." "Yes, that's the way it seems." "So. You are captives - and you have made a captive of the world itself. That's what's at stake, isn't it? - your captivity and the captivity of the world."
Having vs. Being: As a Frame of Orientation and an Object of Devotion: The difference between having and being is between a society centered around persons and one centered around things. The having orientation is characteristic of Western industrial society, in which greed of money, fame, and power and become the dominant theme of life. Modern ‘western’ man cannot understand the spirit of a society that is not centered in property and greed (being).
An excellent fictional visionary novel, which helps to understand the psychological frame of orientation of ‘being’, is Ishmael, by Daniel Quinn. Ishmael argues that what is necessary for the continued survival of the species, is not the reliance on technological advances to solve the most important ecological problems we face, but something much subtler. He asks for humans to begin to look at themselves without the distorting lens that "civilization" has placed before their eyes. Ishmael removes this lens. The view is * JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
97 astonishing.
The Friends of Ishmael Society is an organization focused on publicizing the work of Daniel
Quinn, award-winning author of Ishmael, My Ishmael, Story of B, Beyond Civilization, and other important works. Quinn's writings expose the roots of, and cultural myths behind, the most pressing social and environmental issues facing humanity today. We believe that making Ishmael a household name is one of the most effective ways of changing minds, in order to transition to a sustainable way of life.
The Society was created by inspired Quinn readers in order to connect readers with local Ishmael groups, enable local Ishmael groups and individual Friends to share tools and ideas that increase Ishmael's popularity, publicize stories of readers who have changed their lives thanks to Ishmael's positive influence, and collect funds that are redistributed to help promote Ishmael.
The Work of Stanley Milgram: [Having / Obedience to Authority] v [Being / Rebellion] I quote the work of Dr. Stanley Milgram below because it is a brazen example of the results of any social system memeplex requiring submission, conformity, obedience and acquiescence, and the percentage in any given population group who through fear that they will lose what they ‘have’ whether that be possessions, freedom, status or recognition, will rather obey and conform than ‘be’ true to their inner conviction and rebel and demand answers. Excerpt from Practicing Radical Honesty, by Dr. Brad Blanton194 I first heard about a social psychologist named Stanley Milgram when he presented a review of his research at Yale University during a meeting of the American Psychological Association in Chicago in 1965. Milgram was given an award by one branch of the Association while being censured by another branch on the same day, for the same research. Here is how he got praised and in trouble.
"In every act of rebellion, the rebel simultaneously experiences a feeling of revulsion at the infringement of his rights and a complete and spontaneous loyalty to certain aspects of himself.... Up to this point he has at least remained silent and has abandoned himself to the form of despair in which a condition is accepted even though it is considered unjust.... Awareness, no matter how confused it may be, develops from every act of rebellion: the sudden, dazzling perception that there is something in man with which he can identify himself, even if only for a moment…. Before he rebelled, the slave accepted all the demands made upon him.... The very moment the slave refuses to obey the humiliating orders of his master, he simultaneously rejects the condition of slavery... In order to exist, man must rebel, but rebellion must respect the limit it discovers within itself -- a limit where minds meet and, in meeting, begin to exist."
Milgram had, several years earlier, read a book by Hannah Arendt about the trial of Adolf Eichmann, Hitler's infamous second in command who had been responsible for overseeing most of the executions of six million Jews and other people judged unacceptable by the Third Reich. Hannah Arendt, who had covered the war crimes trial for several American newspapers, pointed out that -- Albert Camus, in The Rebel -Eichmann's defense was that he should not be held personally responsible for a crime against mankind because he was doing his duty in the social system Dr. Blanton is the founder of Radical Honesty Enterprises, the United States of Being, and the author of numerous books: Radical Honesty, Practicing Radical Honesty, Radical Parenting, Beyond Good and Evil, The Truthtellers, etc. He is currently running for Congress in the 7th District of Virginia at: www.blantonforcongress.com 194
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98 of which he was a part. His lawyers said that a court might judge that the social system was criminal, but not the person doing his duty within that social system. This argument was rejected. Eichmann's adjudicators concluded that he was individually responsible for the crimes he committed, regardless of the social system of which he was a part, and he was executed. Hannah Arendt then raised another question, which fascinated Stanley Milgram. Was Adolf Eichmann some unusual social deviant, some sadistic exception to common humanity, or was he just a bureaucrat? Arendt had pointed out that only twice in his entire career had he actually witnessed any executions, which, he said, he found "repugnant." What he actually did was shuffle papers in an office and make phone calls and give orders. Outside of work, he seemed to have a normal life with family and friends and associates. Was he normal? Milgram designed an experiment to see if he could somewhat simulate the conditions in which Eichmann operated. He drew a random stratified sample of males from the community around Yale. (In later versions of the original study he included females, and found no significant differences between males and females in the results of the experiment.) He paid each subject, in advance, seven dollars for participating in an experiment that he told them was "a study of the effects of negative reinforcement on learning." When Milgram met his subjects, he used a room in a building on the campus of Yale University. Milgram wore a white lab coat and introduced himself as Dr. Milgram. There were three people in the room: Milgram and two subjects, both of whom were apparently drawn from the sample of subjects. However, only one of them was a true subject and the second was a stooge, a student actor from the drama department. Milgram said to them, "I am conducting a study of the effects of negative reinforcement on learning. In this study, one of you will be the teacher and one will be the learner. I will flip a coin to see which is which." The coin flip was rigged, so that the true subject from the sample was always the "teacher." After the coin flip, Milgram led both subjects into a room containing a very large and impressive electric chair, and proceeded to strap the learner (the stooge) into the chair and apply electrodes to his wrists and head. In later versions of the experiment (the experiment was run several times with several groups of subjects before being written up in journals and reported to the American Psychological Association) Dr. Milgram mentioned in passing that the electrode paste was "to keep the flesh from being burnt," and the learner/stooge mentioned in passing that he had a "slight heart condition." Then the "teacher" (who was the true subject) was led to a room with a one-way mirror so that he could see the person in the electric chair but the person could not see him. He was seated in front of a panel of thirty switches, which were labelled clearly in 15-volt increments from 15 volts to 450 volts. Above the switches were verbal labels in gradations of degree: "shock," "dangerous shock," "severely dangerous shock," and two steps before the last switch was an ambiguous but ominous "XXXX." Milgram said, "I am going to project a list of words on the wall in front of the person in the chair. He will be given several repetitions of the word list to learn it. When he sees a word appear on the wall, his task will be to name the next word from the list before it is projected, based on having memorized the list. If he makes a mistake, I want you to administer an electric shock, and I would like you to increase the voltage of this shock in fifteen-volt increments. Do you understand the instructions?" When the "teacher" fully understood the instructions, the experiment began. The stooge in the chair was only receiving a mild cue shock every time a switch was thrown, but the "teacher" didn't know that. As the "learner" made mistakes and was shocked, he reacted more and more * JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
99 dramatically. At first he just jumped a little. As the shocks progressed he began jumping and yelling out. Then he started screaming when he was shocked. Then he began screaming and saying he wanted to stop. Then he said, "Stop this! I want out! Whoever is doing this stop! I want to quit!" Then as the voltage got closer to the end, two steps before the end, the "learner" screamed, convulsed, and collapsed completely. When the next word appeared and there was no response, Milgram said, "We'll have to count that an error; shock him again." Then one more time, no response, "That's an error; shock him again." In order to get to the end of the row of switches the teacher had to shock the learner two more times while he was apparently completely "unconscious." Prior to actually conducting the study, Milgram had given a questionnaire to a similar random stratified sample of people from the community around Yale in which he asked if the respondents "would ever purposely inflict pain on a fellow human being, regardless of the social circumstances." Over ninety-two percent said that they would not. When he actually ran the experiment, sixty-eight percent of the people went all the way to the top. The "teachers" sweated excessively; some cried; some went into hysterical laughter. Many, even though debriefed and told that it was an act, reported when interviewed two weeks later that they had nightmares about what they had done. The subjects obviously had a very hard time doing what they did, but nevertheless did it. They resisted, they felt bad about it, they felt guilty, but they did what they were told. Milgram had written down, in advance, four statements he could make in response to objections on the part of the "teacher"-the strongest one being: "The experiment must go on." Later, Milgram pointed out that this experiment was not really fair to Adolf Eichmann because Eichmann had many colleagues who cooperated in his bureaucracy. So Milgram modified his experiment by adding one more stooge, who was a person in the room with the teacher who pulled down a master switch to "turn on the electricity" each time an error was made. When the responsibility or blame could be shared with just one other person in this way, ninety-two percent of the subjects went all the way to the top. Milgram's presentation was called "A Study in the Legitimation of Evil" and he concluded about the people in his sample, and by generalization, the people in the culture from which his sample had come: "Individuals will generally go against their own moral inclinations in order to cooperate with authority." No sub-group in the sample differed in a statistically significant way from the norm of the whole population. Women did not differ from men, and groupings by ethnic origin, religious orientation, age, and so on were not significantly different. One group approached statistical significance-Catholics-and that difference was in the direction of more cooperation with authority rather than less. One of the things I like about this study is that none of us knows how we would have fared. We would all like to think that we would have been in the eight percent who said that they would not go on. There were some few subjects who not only quit but proceeded to go talk to the provost at Yale and to Milgram demanding that he stop. We would all like to think we would have been one of them. But obviously, all of us couldn't have been in the eight percent. Most of us would have cooperated and felt bad about it but cooperated nevertheless. I have been fascinated with this work for thirty-two years. I used to report on Milgram's work in speeches I made against the war in Vietnam. Much of my work as a group leader and psychotherapist has been
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100 an attempt to discover and reinforce the kind of independent individuality that might allow for those statistics to change. I think, to demonstrate independence in the circumstance of that experiment, it was necessary for individuals to be able to act according to their compassion-their identification as one being to another with the person in the electric chair. Their compassion made them "feel bad" about what they did, but it was not enough to overrule their training in obedience to authority. Their compassion would have to have been stronger than their need to obey the professor from Yale in the white lab coat. Their sense of individual responsibility and the courage to act upon it would have to be stronger than their years of training from school and church and family to acquiesce to authority. The integrity of their own feelings would have had to be more powerful in determining their actions than their moral obligation to not challenge the constituted authority or rock the boat of the existing power structure. Eichmann was just an average guy. Average guys are just Eichmanns. So are average gals. Most of us would obey Hitler like most did in Nazi Germany. Most of us still are obeying some questionably constituted authority instead of acting on our own authority most of the time. Most of us have lined up to go to recess and lined up to come back into the classroom and lined up to go to lunch and lined up to come back from lunch and sat in rows and not talked and waited in lines and behaved and waited for the bell to ring and are still doing that. Most of us operate from models of what we should and should not do rather than what we feel, what we prefer, what we feel called forth to do based on our empathetic connections with other human beings. And for the most part, we have organized our world to keep it that way. As the Sufis say, ninety-eight per cent of humanity spends ninety-eight per cent of their time at the level of belief.
The thing about memeplexes (or as systems theory practioners call them ‘mental models’, or psychologists call them ‘beliefs’) is that they seem to grow and harden like concrete until we are convinced that our ‘beliefs’ are THE TRUTH and based on real data. We are not willing to question our ‘beliefs’ in the underlying principles of our ‘industrial religion’ or our ‘marketing character’ or our ‘infinite growth based civilisation’. Our ‘theory’ on ‘capitalism’ is no longer a ‘theory’ or ‘perspective’ of enquiry, it has become a rock solid ‘belief’, but it did not become a belief based on facts. Once it becomes a ‘belief’ it has conquered Iraq in your brainware. There is no longer any insurgency of rebellion going on in your neural connections that says: “Wait a minute, let’s check this or that fact, let’s see if this or that is true?’ The memeplex (belief) has successfully created a new outpost from which to replicate it’s message. Once a memeplex becomes a ‘belief’ it is exploiting your brainware and is virtually consistently destructive. The same memeplex as a ‘theory’ or ‘perspective’ or ‘hypothesis’ is not destructive, because when you – practice the ‘there is no I in this brain’ – then the “I” has no necessary ‘my’ attachment to any memeplex. Numerous memeplexes can remain dormant in the neural memory archive for access, depending on the circumstance of the moment. The individual is not ‘run’ by the memeplex, but the individual uses the memeplexes, as a multitude of appropriate options given a particular circumstance.
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
101 Radical psychotherapy, and any search for self-knowledge and inner awareness usually comprises that the participant process and integrate information about new perspectives. The individual comes up with new perspectives, uses them, adapts to them and dispenses with them, and grows and learns about himself through the process. The concept of true transcendence in virtually all religions is to view perspectives themselves from a transcendent standpoint. That standpoint is that all perspectives are relative. As Brad Blanton says: One first gets the relativity of perspectives intellectually. After a long time and a lot of work, one gets the perspective on the relativity of perspectives practically, "feelingly," usefully, psychologically, structurally, interpersonally, and whatever other "lys" pertain to the actual bringing into being of the perspective of detachment from perspectives itself‌ Primarily, we are each victimized by one thing only: the limiting perspective of our own minds. Formerly limiting perspectives, once transcended, can be used to construct a better life. You can create the life you want using the equipment you have. Your neuroses, your limiting beliefs, your defenses, your paranoia, and your hypersensitivity can all become useful tools once your perspective on them changes
The Sufi Levels of Consciousness: The Path from Denial to Acceptance and Transcendence: Mental Model growth from Having (Belief) to Being (Reason) Excerpt from Practicing Radical Honesty, by Brad Blanton We have just started the conversation about the developmental path from centeredness in being to the growth of the mind in a culture, to the eventual recentering in being for using the mind and the traditions of the culture. Now we want to review what happens when we assume that a person in a culture wants to outgrow the limitations of that culture. What can we do if our starting place is now, and we are trapped in a mind? I'm using the Sufi system called the levels of human consciousness as a model for our mutual instruction. Gurdjieff first taught this model to people in the West around the turn of the century. Let's assume we are liars in the acculturated way we learned in whatever culture we were raised. If we were stringently instructed to learn abstractions at too early an age, we live in our minds so much we hardly have any experience of anything and we can barely contact reality enough to walk through a doorway without bumping into the doorjamb. We need to get back into the world of experience and stop obsessively thinking. We would like to get to where we feel happy and in charge of our lives rather than feeling like we're running around in circles putting out fires all the time. We want to "inhibit the modifications of the mind" and become present to experience. How do we do that? The Level of Belief. We must start by recognizing where we are in the first place. We are at a level of consciousness that the Sufis called the "level of belief." This means we think that to escape our mind we must figure something out. We think we need to figure out what to believe and then act accordingly. The problem is that we are trying to think our way out of thinking. Our entire focus is on figuring out what we should believe and acting accordingly. This is the lowest level of human consciousness, called "the level of belief." The Sufis say that ninety-eight percent of us spend ninety-eight percent of our time at this level. At least we know we are not alone. Lots of other people in the world share this level of consciousness with us most of the time. This level has an alternative name. It's called hell. It's the inescapable do-loop prison of the interminable warning buttons of the reactive mind and the useless rationalizations of the rationalizing mind. It's hell. It's being strongly attached to the cultural quagmire we got dumped into‌. Let's say we live in hell for a long time. We grow older, get a job, get married, and so on. When we reflect on our life, we realize life isn't quite living up to its billing. We don't want much. We would just like to work when we feel like it and not work when we don't. That's all. We believe we can't do that but we * JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
102 wish we could. Our job, our kids, our family, our bills, and our other obligations dictate what we do and there just isn't any time left. We just never can, really, relax. It is not all intensely painful, some of it is even enjoyable, but we are basically on duty all the time, dreaming of a day when we won't have to be on duty all the time anymore. The Level of Social Contracts: In this level, we have done some work on ourselves, some therapy, some schooling, some honest conversations, some degree of telling the truth, but we are stuck with obligations we just have to respond to. The "level of social contracts" is one notch above hell, but only one notch. It is a slightly higher hell than the level of belief because it at least recognizes that other people out there exist independently from our own mind's pictures of them. That isn't true at the level of belief, where other people are just categories like "converts" or "heathens." The lowest level, the "level of belief," is where insulated, isolated fundamentalists live. The next level up is where many first generation immigrants live. It is where we live when we are concerned about acceptance and living up to other people's expectations. So let's say that now we have advanced from the level of belief to the level of social contracts but we are still severely constrained. Plus, many times each day we drop back into the level of belief, where we are trying to figure out what to believe and then do what that belief dictates. Although the obligations to other people we have contracted for constantly "rescue" us from the hell of belief, the rescue is hardly worth the work. Whereas at the level of belief we aren't even related to other people except as triggers for other beliefs on our part, now we recognize the independent existence of other people that places constant demands on us. Our marriage, kids, paying taxes, paying bills, and honouring other commitments to other people deliver us from the frying pan of self-torture into the fire of the torture of obligation. The Saint Ego Level: Eventually, through hard living and experience, we get to know that there must be more to life than showing up to work on time and having a split level house with a two-car garage and two-point-eight children and keeping the mortgage paid and doing our duty to others who are doing their duty to us. There has to be more to life than maintaining our obligations. At least we have learned that. Most of us are in our forties before we learn that. When we do realize that there is more to life than fulfilling obligations, we realize at the same time that knowing that makes us superior to others who haven't learned that yet. We also know that there is more to life than being an obedient, well-behaved citizen for whom living within the guidelines of convention is the highest goal of life. The Sufis, according to Gurdjieff, who first introduced these levels of consciousness to the West, called this level of consciousness the "Saint Ego level." We begin to understand that we are better than most of the other fools in the world. Some of us modern day Sufis call this the "Muhammad Ali level," because Muhammad Ali in his prime was such a great example of proclaimed superiority. "I am the greatest!" he said, "I float like a butterfly and sting like a bee!" "I am beautiful!" He refused to go to Vietnam and kill his dark-skinned brothers and sisters because the human bunch who claimed he belonged to them told him it was his duty. He was not obedient to the beliefs and the social contracts they claimed he should be obedient to because he was superior to that. When we attain the level of consciousness known as the Muhammad Ali level, we still make frequent visits back to the two lower levels of consciousness known as belief and social contracts. We still have beliefs and we still have to deal with social contracts, but we tend to not be as attached to beliefs and we handle social contracts so we can spend more time at a higher and less worrisome place. We want to spend more and more time at this higher level because we have a larger perspective that subsumes more information, a perspective of superiority from which to view beliefs and social contracts. The Level of Philosopher/Charlatan: * JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
103 After a while at the Muhammad Ali level of consciousness, a being may have a dawning revelation that leads to the next level of consciousness. We recognize that bragging about being superior by virtue of the inferiority of others is not very superior, and even if it is, so what? We are equal as a being to other beings. When we brag about being better than, smarter than, or superior to other people, it is not our being we are referring to, it is our beliefs. We come to understand that the beliefs we have generated from our own life experience are just more beliefs. This includes our belief in our own superiority. We start losing faith in our own ego. We begin to see through our own mind. So what that we are superior to fundamentalists? What does that mean? We know that their attachment to their beliefs doesn't work, but we are still attached to a few we call our own, one of which is about our socalled superiority. At this point, partly out of desperation, we begin to enrol other people in our hard-earned beliefs (that is, we start selling our beliefs to others)‌. The Level of Despair: Here we are, unfortunately, becoming superior to being superior. We are on the cusp of a very high level of consciousness. Despair comes from root words in both Latin and Greek that mean "down from hope." We no longer hope. We have no hope. We have nothing to hope for. We are hopeless. We have nothing left to believe in, including our own hard-earned beliefs. We have come to understand that all beliefs, even our beliefs based on our own experience and our beliefs about who we are, are worthless. We get that we are compulsive meaning-making machines who endlessly make meaning out of everything, and it is all a waste. We realize that life its own self is meaningless. This is a very high level of human consciousness. Werner Erhard said, "Until you know that your life is utterly meaningless you don't know anything at all." At this level, you get that the preacher Koeloth in the book of Ecclesiastes in the Old Testament is right when he says, "All is vanity, and a striving after the wind, and there is no profit in it." We are worth exactly nothing. We are not of significant negative value (a popular ego trip), or of significant positive value (all the hype about selfesteem and positive thinking, and all the previous levels of consciousness, and so on). We are of no value. Zero. Nada. Zilch. Nothing. Now, at this level, we're really getting somewhere. Then it dawns on us that becoming more conscious is not necessarily correlated with becoming happier. There are no guarantees about nothing, and that's not bad grammar and it's not just a pun. Now what? Well, if we don't run away to lower levels of consciousness as quick as we can (which, of course we do, the first thirty or forty times we reach this level) we get born into the next, very high level of consciousness, known as the "level of Suicidal Panic." The Level of Suicidal Panic: At this level, we either kill ourselves or we don't. We are desperate for something to believe in. If we don't kill ourselves, we eventually run out of panic. We are at a very high level of consciousness, and then we don't kill ourselves and we are no longer in a panic. The panic is from not having a single thing to believe in at all, not even despair. We get that not only is our life utterly meaningless, but the fact that our life is utterly meaningless is also utterly meaningless. We can't even get off on being an existentialist philosopher any more! We can't get meaning out of preaching meaninglessness any more! We are left with nothing. All we have is what the Buddhists call "suchness," the present experience of being, right now, whatever it is, and nothing more. All that is left is just what is in front of us and within us to experience right now.
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
104 We face the hard Buddhist saying, which is written on the wall of my office: "If you understand, things are as they are. If you do not understand, things are as they are." The Level of Here and Now: When the panic is gone, we arrive at the next level, which is called the "level of Here and Now." At this level we are present to being present. We are grounded in noticing. We have "lost our minds and come to our senses." If someone else is there, we are present to being present to them. The being we are notices the being in them—the being they are. Our presence to their being salutes their being's presence to us. This is what Kierkegaard was talking about when he said, "When a person relates to another, and relates also to that relationship, they relate thereby to God." Here, at this level, is where love becomes possible. Not a belief in love, but love its own self.
You see, the powers behind Communism and the powers behind Capitalism are virtually the same people. We might also include the powers behind the Vatican and the powers behind Islam. Their main function is to mystify the popular mind by creating illusions of omnipotence and omniscience with which to command docility from their subjects. While at the same time creating illusions of health, happiness and fulfillment for their subjects, although it does not require much thorough investigation to discover that few of the peoples of the world are healthy, happy or fulfilled. But never mind, there are ways out of the trap, ways, as I earlier suggested, out of Hell. The only advice I have for you tonight is not to actively resist or fight the System, because active protest and resistance merely entangle you in the System. Instead, ignore it, walk away from it, turn your backs on it, laugh at it. Don't be outraged, be outrageous! Never be stupid enough to respect authority unless that authority first proves itself respectable. And, unfortunately, there is no officially sanctioned authority today, from the President of the United States down to the cop on the beat, that has earned the right to your respect. So, be your own authority, lead yourselves. Learn the ways and means of the Ancient yogi masters, Pied Piper, cloud walkers, and medicine men. Get in harmony with nature. Listen to the loony rhythms of your blood. Look for beauty and poetry in everything in life. Let there be no moon that does not know you, no spring that does not lick you with its tongues. Refuse to play it safe, for it is from the wavering edge of risk that the sweetest honey of freedom drips. Live dangerously, live lovingly. Believe in magic. Nourish your imagination. Use your head, even if it means going out of your mind. Learn, like the lemon and the tomato learned, the laws of the sun. Become aware, like the jungle became aware, of your own perfume. Remember that life is much too serious to take seriously. Remember to never forget how to play. In times of doubt and chaos, it has been the duty of superior persons-artists, poets, scientists, clowns, and philosophers (certainly not statesmen or military heroes)-to create order in the psychic vibrations of their fellow beings. But in times such as ours, times that are too carefully ordered, too strictly organized, too expertly managed, thoroughly programmed and carefully planned, times in which too few control too many, it is the duty of all feeling, thinking, humanitarian people to toss their favorite monkey wrenches into the machinery. On second thought, you do have some responsibility to your fellow beings. To relieve the repression of the human spirit, it is your sacred duty to screw things up royally. – Tom Robbins, in Practicing Radical Honesty --
This level is the focus, certainly, of Buddhism and of most spiritual practice and psychotherapy and group process work when the leaders actually know what they are doing.
The Level of Pure Reason: The next level after the "level of Here and Now" is called the "level of Pure Reason." Isn't that something!? We've gone to all this trouble to escape from the jail of alienation our minds create, and the first thing that happens after we get grounded in our experience is we get our minds back! What a difference, though. We now have a mind that is not bound to the defense of our ego. We have this wonderful instrument we worked so hard to grow, and now we can use it! It turns out to be a fantastic instrument for creating! Daydreams become amenable for action! Fantasies become visions! Escapist hopefulness and desperate attempts at reassurance about our self-worth and the entanglement of selfimage promotion and maintenance become just possible scenarios to play with. We don't need that * JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
105 mind for our identity anymore! Our identity is the being we are, in the here and now! Our identity precedes our mind! We take ownership of our mind and take it out for a test drive! Hoohah! This is the part where you start to consider the life of the creator. At "Pure Reason" we can think like we have never thought before. We become truly a free thinker. We see the possibility of a lifetime of play and service. As Kris Kristofferson says, "Freedom's just another word for nothin' left to lose." The experience of living for a while, grounded in your experience of the here and now, leads to thinking about that experience. Sitting in that place, we come to understand things we never understood before. We get that the source of our historical being and the source of our present being is like a generator that has been constant since it started. Getting back to our source is the first step to transcendence. When we pay attention to the being we are, we withdraw attention from the dilemmas of the mind.
At the level of Pure Reason you are able to see that Peak Oil -- when it occurs -- and it’s consequences are simply Mother Nature’s way of providing Homo Sapiens with the opportunity to examine their frame’s of orientation that are the foundation of their mental models which they ardently believe, such as: To acquire, to own and to make a profit are the sacred and unalienable rights of the individual in industrial society; Our ego is the most important object of our property feeling, for it comprises many things: our body, our name, our social status, our possessions (including knowledge), the image we have of ourselves and the image we want others to have of us. It is not so important what the content of our ego is, but that our ego is something that we possess, it is this ‘thing’ that is the basis of our identity; However, if I honestly examine my mental models, I come to realize: What I have I know, I can hold onto it, feel secure in it. My illusion of ‘security’ was based on what I ‘have’, consequently I have avoided the unknown, for the secure. If I am what I have and if what I have is lost, who then am I? Nothing but a defeated, deflated, pathetic testimony to a wrong way of living. Because I can lose what I have, I am necessarily constantly worried that I shall lose what I have. I am afraid of thieves, of economic changes , of revolutions, of sickness, of death, and I am afraid of love, of freedom, of growth, of change, of the unknown. Because my frame of orientation was in having, I have become defensive, hard, suspicious, lonely, driven by the need to have more in order to be better protected. As long as everybody wants to have more, there must be formations of classes, there must be class war, and in global terms, there must be international war. Greed and peace preclude each other; If I am who I am and not what I have, nobody can deprive me of or threaten my security and my sense of identity. My center is within myself; my capacity for being and for expressing my essential powers is part of my character structure and depends on me. The only threat to my security in being lies in myself: in lack of faith in life and in my productive powers; in inner laziness and the willingness to have others take over my life. Because I am who I am, I do not fear Peak Oil, in fact I look forward to it, -- as an opportunity for being within such an life-affirming process and for the opportunity of sharing the process of being, -- as a forceful higher being authority that is going to rock the boat of the existing power structure, off the pedestal of denial in the belief that infinite economic growth is possible on a finite planet.
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
106 So, to disagree – slightly – with Mr. Savinar, in that most people are in denial, because for “most there is no “advantage” to believing in the coming of peak oil, so [their] brain deletes the info.” There are tons of ‘advantages’ to viewing the perspective of Peak Oil as a highly plausible reality, the advantages are mostly however in the emotional, psychological, metaphysical, spiritual, relational and physical realms, which are quite obvious to anyone centered in the being mode. In fact, in being mode, all that the individual in having mode FEARS to lose, the individual in being mode KNOWS is the baggage which is holding him back from reaching higher and higher realms in consciousness and personal growth. The individual is in ‘denial’ because he views the world from his mode of having an enormous attachment (mega-megameme-plex-possession) to seeing the world through the lense of ‘having’, the result of the memeplex as we have explained being: His alienation in Capitalist society, His Industrial Religion, His Marketing Character, His obedience and subservience to these memeplexes, which defined him as being a ‘success’. His entire world, and however many years he has worked towards this ‘having’ success industrial society is coming crashing down, and just like the world trade center towers, each floor is ripping his treasured beliefs to pieces of dust. He does not yet have the courage to admit to himself that he is nothing but a defeated, deflated, pathetic testimony to a wrong way of living. The Industrial memeplex is firmly in charge of his brainware, with no insurgency in sight, except reality. In The Suburban Fantasy,195 Howard Kunstler writes: “People who refuse to negotiate with the circumstances that the world throws at them automatically get assigned a new negotiating partner: reality. Reality then requires you to change your behaviour, whether you like it or not. With global oil production peaking, we are now subject to rising oil prices, as markets are forced to contend with allocating a resource heading in the direction of scarcity. Oil prices are only likely to go higher—though there is apt to be a ratcheting effect as high oil prices depress economic activity and thus dampen demand for oil which will depress prices leading to increased consumption which will then kick prices back up, and so on. The prospects for more geopolitical friction over oil also self-evidently increase, as industrial nations desperately manoeuvre for supplies. Mainly though, the danger lies in the resulting instability of the super-sized complex systems that we depend on daily. We simply cannot face the fact that time has run out—that our lease is expiring—for the easy-motoring utopia. But we must. We have to live differently.”
[A]_See Bibliography Primary Sources Matt Savinar & LifeAfterTheOilCrash
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The Suburban Fantasy, by Howard Kunstler, May 26, 2006, TomPaine.com
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
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18 July 2006_PeakOil_RSA_Briefing Paper
VIII. BIBLIOGRAPHY & REFERENCES:
PRIMARY SOURCES LifeAfterTheOilCrash & Matt Savinar From the Wilderness / Mike Ruppert & Dale Allen Pfeiffer Richard Heinberg INTERNATIONAL Geologists, Scientific Bodies, Energy Advisors/Investors International Organisations National Governments National Representative Bodies Peak Oil Books Peak Oil Books Research Articles Available Online Banks / Financial Corporate Bodies Oil Companies Automotive Companies 911/ Iraq US & International Media International & USA State & City Peak Oil Resolutions SOUTH AFRICA
PRIMARY SOURCES LifeAfterTheOilCrash & Matt Savinar From The Wilderness Mike Ruppert Dale Allen Pfeiffer Richard Heinberg
LifeAfterTheOilCrash & Matt Savinar: Matt Savinar received his law degree from the University of California at Hastings College of the Law, and is a California licensed attorney. (State Bar #228957) He has appeared on numerous national and international radio shows to discuss global Peak Oil, the ramifications of a declining oil supply, and what we can do to address our energy issues. March 2006 interview with Jeff Tarbell of "Talking Money" and October 2004 interview with Jim Puplava of Financial Sense. His work has been quoted extensively on the floor of the United States Congress and mentioned favourably in the pages of Fortune Magazine. His website, LifeAftertheOilCrash.net is assigned reading at multiple university courses around the world. What about Green Alternatives like Solar, Wind, Wave and Geothermal? What About the Hydrogen Economy? What about Nuclear Energy? What about Biofuels such as Ethanol and Biodiesel? What about using Coal to make synthetic oil? Can’t we use a combination of alternatives to replace Oil? What about Amazing New Technologies such as thermal depolymerization, solar nanotechnology, space based solar arrays, and other ‘energy-miracles’? What about hybrids and super fuel-efficient vehicles? What about large-scale efforts at conserving energy or becoming more energy efficient?
From the Wilderness & Michael Ruppert Mr. Ruppert is the author of Crossing The Rubicon: The Decline of the American Empire at the End of the Age of Oil, one of the three best-selling books globally and in the US about the attacks of 9/11. Rubicon is the only book to show that Vice President Richard Cheney, the US government and Wall Street had a well-developed awareness of Peak Oil before the 9/11 attacks and that US policy since then has been consistent with Peak Oil imperatives. In May 2006 Crossing the Rubicon was added to the Harvard School of Business library and released in a French version with distribution throughout all major bookstores in France. Mike is also the publisher/editor of From The Wilderness, a newsletter read in more than 50 countries around the world. Its subscribers include 60plus members of the US congress, professors at more than 40 universities around the world, and major business and economic leaders. Since 9/11 Mike has been in demand as a university lecturer and has spoken on Peak Oil and 9/11 in nine countries. Recently, at the request of Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney, he served as an official questioner during a Congressional briefing looking into unanswered questions and the un-addressed flaws of the Keane Commission report. Everything predicted in Denial Stops Here: From 911 to Peak Oil and Beyond, has and is coming to pass, exactly as FTW said a year ago: gas prices soaring, dollar collapsing, gold exploding, economic meltdown, a world on the edge.
FTW: Dale Allen Pfeiffer Eating Fossil Fuels, by Dale Allen Pfeiffer. See more about Eating Fossil Fuels under Peak Oil Books Eating Fossil Fuels
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Richard Heinberg, The Party’s Over, Powerdown & Museletters Richard Heinberg is a journalist, educator, editor, lecturer, and musician. He has lectured widely, appearing on national radio and television in five countries. He is the author of The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrialized Societies, and Powerdown – Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World. He also publishes a monthly newsletter offer a continuing critique of corporate-capitalist industrial civilization and a re-visioning of humanity's prospects for the next millennium. For more information, see www.museletter.com. The Endangered US Dollar, by Richard Heinberg, MuseLetter # 149, August 2004. It includes A Brief History of Money, Early Life of the US Dollar, The Dollar Triumphant, 1973 – 1999: The PetroDollar Era, 1999-Present: Hegemonic Decline, Imperial Hubris, and ends with “There is no solution to any of this - in that there is nothing we can do to make the problems go away. Their origins go far back in time and are intertwined with the history of money itself, though money per se is not at the heart of the matter. Access to resources is, as ever, the ultimate determiner of human destiny, but money has become a tool universally used by humans to gain and hold access to resources, and as such it introduces its own set of possibilities and perils.” Other Museletter titles, include: Energy Geopolitics 2006: Navigating the maze of global energy newsand composing a picture of the major global players' motives and moves. Tools with a Life of Their Own: Includes presentation and discussion of "The Oil Depletion Protocol"; How to Avoid Oil Wars, Terrorism, and Economic Collapse: Includes presentation and discussion of "The Oil Depletion Protocol" Threats of Peak Oil to the Global Food Supply - A paper presented at the FEASTA Conference: "What Will We Eat as the Oil Runs Out?", June 23-25, 2005, Dublin Ireland Meditations on Collapse: - A review of Jared Diamond's Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed; Beyond the Peak: - Closing Address, by Richard Heinberg, to the First US Conference on Peak Oil and Community Solutions Part 1: The Peak Is Nigh. the first signs of global oil peak; Part 2: The "Abiotic Oil" Controversy. A speculative theory Boomers' Last Chance? - Can we now give back at least the possibility that future generations will be permitted to exist? Götterdämmerung - The current US leaders' actions are so clearly sabotaging the very system that sustains them that an explanation is in order; The Petroleum Plateau - modern industrial society is approaching the peak in available net energy; The US and Eurasia: End Game for the Industrial Era - struggle for the control of Eurasia and its energy resources; Remember When We Had Elections? Defining democracy in the wake of the 2002 US elections; Behold Caesar: George W Bush, a failed emperor, threatens world stability. George Bush and Peak Oil: Beyond Incompetence, by Richard Heinberg, He asks “Is gross mismanagement of the nation's energy policy an impeachable offense?” See more about Richard Heinberg’s books at Peak Oil Books Powerdown….. and The Party’s Over
INTERNATIONAL Geologists, Scientific Bodies, Energy Advisors/Investors Hubbert.. ASPO Dr. C. Campbell ODAC Hubbert Center Prof. Kjell Aleklett Other Petroleum Geologists Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Chris Skrewboski Ken Deffeyes Richard Heinberg Dr. Hirsch & The Hirsch Report Scientists & Scientific Bodies Simmons & Simmons & Company International PFC Energy & J. Robinson West Henry Groppe Ali Samsan Bakhtiari International Organisations G8 Group Research Report International Energy Agency National Governments Gov. of Sweden USA Army Corps of Engineers USA: Dept of Energy USA: Dept of Defense Renewable Energy Assessment Report USA Dept of Defense: Secretary of Defense USA Dept of Defense Publications USA Central Intelligence Agency France: Economics, Industry & Finance Ministry National Representative Bodies USLAW: US Labour Against the War USA Senate Committee on Foreign Relations USA House of Representatives Congressman Roscoe Bartlett Richard D. Lamm Michael Meacher (UK) Australian Politician Secretary of State: Condoleeza-Rice Vice President Dick Cheney Bill Clinton George Bush Peak Oil Books Peak Oil Books Research Articles Available Online Banks / Financial Corporate Bodies Bank of International Settlements Alan Greenspan, Federal Reserve Deutsche Bank Report The Australian Financial Review Articles on Oil/Energy & Finance International Financial Stock Market Publications Oil Companies Exxon Mobil Chevron Royal Dutch Shell MOL Automotive Companies Ford Motor Company Volvo Motor Company 911/ Iraq Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity Other 911 Information US & International Media Intenational Financial Stock Market Publications International Political, News Publications International & USA State & City Peak Oil Resolutions
Geologists, Scientific Bodies, Energy/Oil Advisors & Investors: Geologists, Scientific Bodies, Energy Advisors/Investors Hubbert.. ASPO Dr. C. Campbell ODAC Hubbert Center Prof. Kjell Aleklett Other Petroleum Geologists Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Chris Skrewboski Ken Deffeyes Dr. Hirsch & The Hirsch Report Scientists & Scientific Bodies Simmons & Simmons & Company International PFC Energy & J. Robinson West Henry Groppe Ali Samsan Bakhtiari
The late Dr. M. King Hubbert, geophysicist & Hubberts Peak: Dr. King Hubbert, geophysicist was well known as a world authority on the estimation of energy resources and on the prediction of their patterns of discovery and depletion. He was probably the best-known geophysicist in the world to the general public because of his
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109 startling prediction, first made public in 1949, that the fossil fuel era would be of very short duration. "Energy from Fossil Fuels, Science" February 4, 1949] Hubbert’s Peak: The Coming Global Oil Crisis: Named after the late Dr. M. King Hubbert, Geophysicist, this website provides data, analysis and recommendations regarding the upcoming peak in the rate of global oil extraction.
ASPO: Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (http://www.peakoil.net/): Founder: Dr. Colin Campbell, President: Prof. Kjell Aleklett, Ph.D. ASPO have numerous national branches, such as ASPO_USA, ASPO_Australia. ASPO host a yearly conference. ASPO 2005 speakers & bio’s: Kjell Aleklett, Sweden Pedro Almedia, Portugal, Robert Ayres, USA Ali M.S. Bakhtiari, Iran Ugo Bardi, Italy Dr. Roger W. Bentley, UK Carlos Bruhn, Brazil Colin Campbell, Ireland Yves Cochet, MP, France Manuel Collares-Pereira, Portugal Antonia Costa-Silva, Portugal Dr. Herman Franssen, UK & USA J. Peter Gerling, Germany: head of the "Energy Resources" section of the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), which acts as an advisory body to the German government Charles A.S. Hall, Professor, State Univ. of NY, Suracuse Richard Heinberg, Journalist & Educator, Core Faculty Member of New College of California in Santa Rosa Dr. Robert L. Hirsch, author of Hirsch Report Klaus Illum, Eco Consultant, Denmark Eddy Isaacs, Ph.D, Managing Director of Alberta Energy Research Institute, Canada Marek Kolodziej, Univ of Chicago Ph.D. student Jean Laherrere, France Ray Leonard, USA & Hungary: Senior Vice President for International Exploration and Production of MOL, the Hungarian Oil and Gas Company Mariano Marzo, Spain, involved in research projects funded by oil companies (ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Norsk Hydro, Repsol-Ypf, Shell, Statoil and Total among others). Joao Carlos de Oliveira Matias, Portugal Michael Meacher, MP Rui Namorado-Rosa, Portugal Prof. Xionggqui Pang, China: Director, Key Laboratory of Petroleum Reservoir Formation Mechanism, Chinese Ministry of Education; Research Assistant of the President, University of Petroleum (Beijing); Editor Director of "Petroleum Science" and Editor of "Journal Of the University Of Petroleum, China", "Petroleum Exploration And Development" and "Natural Gas Geoscience" Rudolf Rechsteiner, MP, Switzerland Bruce Robinson, Australia Kristin Ronning, Norway: Geologist, Statoil Eamon Ryan, TD, Ireland, Green Party Member of the Irish Parliament Chris Sanders, Managing Director of Sanders Research Associates, an international consulting firm specializing in the analysis of the global political economy, and director of Atlantic Partners Investment Services Ltd., a global investment advisory firm located in Dublin Dr. Marcel Schoppers, The Rt. Hon. Edward Richard Schreyer, Manitoba, Canada: Former Governor General of Canada and Commander-in-Chief 1979-84; as Canadian High Commissioner to Australia, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands & Ambassador to Vanuatu 1984-88. Currently Special Advisor on Energy, Science and Technology to the Government of Manitoba & Director of the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) Chris Skrebowski, Editor of Petroleum Review Mathew R. Simmons, USA Rolf Willkrans, Sweden Jack Zagar, Independent Petroleum Reservoir Consultant, USA Special Advisor on Energy, Science and Technology to the Government of Manitoba. He serves as Director of the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD).
Dr. Colin Campbell: Founder geologist of ASPO. Dr. Colin Campbell was educated at Oxford and holds a Masters degree. He has served (i) as a geologist for Oxford University, Texaco, British Petroleum and Amoco, (ii) in executive positions with Shenandoah Oil, Amoco, Fina and was Chairman of the Nordic American Oil Company, & (iii) as a consultant on oil for the Bulgarian government, Statoil, Mobil, Amerada, Total, Shell, Esso and for the firm Petroconsultants in Geneva. He is the Convener and Editor of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and a Trustee of the Oil Depletion Analysis Center in London. As a member of The American Society of Petroleum Geologists, The Geological Society of London, and the Petroleum Institute of London he has delivered more than 35 lectures on oil depletion on three continents. His hosts have included universities, governments, and auto manufacturers. He has been published more than 150 times in the field including the 1997 book "The Coming Oil Crisis" (MultiScience Publishing Co. & Petroconsultants). He answered the following questions for Global Public Media on the issue of Peak Oil: "What Is the Significance of 'Peak' Oil?”, "How Does Oil Discovery Relate to Depletion?", "Why Don't We Know More About the Coming Oil Crisis?" , "What Does Back-Dating the Reserves Mean, and Why Is It So Important?", "How Are the Oil Companies Reacting to Depletion?", "How Have Governments Reacted?", "What Is the Role of Economics in Hastening Oil Depletion?". In October 2000, he prepared Peak Oil – an Outlook on Crude Oil Depletion, for Mbendi in South Africa. Further articles related to his Peak Oil studies and consultancies can be found at The Coming Global Oil Crisis.
ODAC: The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre: ODAC is, a charitable organisation in London that is dedicated to researching the date and impact of the peak and decline of world oil production due to resource constraints, and raising awareness of the serious consequences.140 Fortess Road London NW5 2HP England, +44 (0)20 7424 0049 mailto:odac@btconnect.com www.odac-info.org: Former News Releases include: New Oil Projects Cannot Meet World Needs this Decade, Tuesday, 16 November 2004.
M. King Hubbert Center for Petroleum Supply Studies, Colorado School of Mines: In Peak Oil: a Turning for Mankind, Hubbert Center Newsletter # 2001/2-1, M. King Hubbert Center For Petroleum Supply Studies, Colorado School Of Mines, Mr. Campbell states: “The reality is that there is no real reprieve. Gradually the market – and not just the oil market - will come to realize that OPEC can no longer single-handedly manage depletion. It will be a dreadful realization because it means that there is no ceiling to oil price other than from falling demand. That in turn spells economic recession and a crumbling
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110 stock market, the first signs of which are already being felt….. All of this is so incredibly obvious, being clearly revealed by even the simplest analysis of discovery and production trends. The inexplicable part is our great reluctance to look reality in the face and at least make some plans for what promises to be one of the greatest economic and political discontinuities of all time. Time is of the essence. It is later than you think.”
Prof. Kjell Aleklett, Ph.D.: Professor Kjell Aleklett, Ph.D, of the Department of Radiation Sciences at Uppsala University in Sweden, is a founding member of ASPO and President of that Association. Among others he has shared his Peak Oil opinions: on CNBC’s 7th of April edition of Global Players was taped at the International Oil Summit in Paris, titled, Addicted to Oil: Can the World Cope with the Coming Risks?, in World Watch Magazine: Jan/Feb 2006, Oil: A Bumpy Road Ahead, and before US Congressional Hearings on Peak Oil, Peak Oil is Not a Theory. Listen on audio.
Other Petroleum Geologists: In “Famed Oil Tycoon Sounds Off on Peak Oil, by Michael DesLauriers, Resource Investor, 23 June, 2005, reports that Legendary petroleum geologist T. Boone Pickens, who started his career in the early 1950s as a roughneck in oilfields in Oklahoma and Texas and went on to co-found Mesa Petroleum and Petroleum Exploration, told the 11th National Clean Cities conference in May, 2005 that “Global oil [production] is 84 million barrels [a day]. I don’t believe you can get it any more than 84 million barrels. . . . I think they are on decline in the biggest oil fields in the world today and I know what it’s like once you turn the corner and start declining, it’s a treadmill that you just can’t keep up with.”8
Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences: “Statements on Oil” Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Energy Committee. (17 Oct. 2005) : “In the last 10–15 years, two-thirds of the increases in reserves of conventional oil have been based on increased estimates of recovery from existing fields and only one-third on discovery of new fields. In this way, a balance has been achieved between growth in reserves and production. This can’t continue. 50% of the present oil production comes from giant fields and very few such fields have been found in recent years.”
Chris Skrebowski Editor of Petroleum Review. Chris has spent his entire working career in the oil industry split roughly two-thirds as an oil journalist and one-third as a planner/market analyst within the industry. He became editor of Petroleum Review in June 1997 having edited Petroleum Economist for the previous three years. Prior to that he had eight years working for the Saudis as an oil market analyst in London. Chris started his working career in 1970 as a long-term planner for BP and then joined Petroleum Times as a journalist just before the first oil crisis of 1973/74. In the late 1970s he edited Offshore Services, an offshore oil magazine. As well as writing extensively for a range of oil industry related publications he has also broadcast on radio and TV on oil and gas subjects. One of the founder members of ASPO (Association for the study of Peak Oil) group he has a great interest in oil depletion and its consequences. He is also a trustee on the board of ODAC (Oil Depletion Analysis Centre) Author of the study “Oil Field Megaprojects.” “Prices Set Firm, Despite Massive New Capacity,” Petroleum Review, October 2005, he notes that “90% of known reserves are in production,” and that “as much as 70% of the world’s producing oil fields are now in decline” with decline rates averaging between four and six percent per year.
Ken Deffeyes: Oil Expert, -- Princeton University emeritus professor and renowned oil analyst Ken Deffeyes -- To Address Theory That Peak Oil Has Arrived, California Institute of Technology, December 7, 2005.
Dr. Robert L. Hirsch & The Hirsch Report: Dr. Robert L. Hirsch, Senior Energy Program Advisor, SAIC, and author of the Hirsch Report; Before US Congressional Hearings states, that if we initiate a crash program 20 years before Peak occurs, we have the possibility (not the guarantee) of significantly mitigating the problem. One of the most important aspects of Hirsch’s testimony is his analogy with natural gas. In 1999, the EIA (Energy Information Agency) and NPC (National Petroleum Council) projected there was plenty of natural gas in North America for years to come. Six years later we saw they were wrong. Now they see adequate oil supplies for years into the future. Did they get it right this time? For this reason, a crash plan has to be implemented now, while we (at least some people, at least in public) hope Peak is still twenty years away. Add massive conservation efforts beyond what most Americans are willing to tolerate, and the crisis might become manageable. “If you dig into Peak Oil it will probably be one of the most depressing subjects that any of you will ever have to worry about or think about,” said Hirsch. For some time after the Peak there will be plenty of oil, but it won’t be cheap – & cheap oil is the lifeblood of our economy.”
Scientists and Sciientific Bodies: David Goodstein is a physicist and vice-provost at the California Institute of Technology, as well as author of Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil. Newsweek: Crude Awakening: A prominent physicist warns in a new book that the world is running out of oil and we’re not doing anything to stave off the coming crisis, he spoke with Brian Braiker about the fundamental principles of oil supply and demand, and whether civilization can survive without fossil fuels; The End of the Age of Oil, by David Goodstein, Published
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111 by CalTech News, California Institute of Technology, Vol. 38, No.2, 2004: This article is adapted from a talk that Caltech vice provost and professor of physics and applied physics David Goodstein presented at an April 29 program of the Institute support group, the Caltech Associates on Goodstein’s new book, Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil. As a member of The American Society of Petroleum Geologists, The Geological Society of London, and the Petroleum Institute of London Dr. Campbell delivered more than 35 lectures on oil depletion on three continents. His hosts have included universities, governments, and auto manufacturers. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences makes statement on the Peak Oil situation: The newly-formed Energy Committee at the Academy has issued a statement on the dwindling oil resources. It urges for better preparedness and stresses the responsibility of more technically advanced countries.
Simmons & Company International & Mathew Simmons Simmons' investment bank, Simmons and Company International, is considered the most reputable and reliable energy investment bank in the world. Mr. Simmons was a consultant to the Cheney National Energy Policy Development Group (NEPDG) that met in secret in 2001, which twice went to the US Supreme Court to prevent publication of it’s proceedings and findings. Mr. Simmons is the author of: Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy (Hardcover) Mr. Simmons is one of President George W. Bush's energy advisors. He has spoken at length about the impending Peak Oil crisis: such as for example: The Energy Crisis Has Arrived Energy Conversation Series – before the Department of Defense, June 20, 2006, Tight Oil Supplies CFA Society of St. Louis, May 24, 2006; What Lies Ahead For The E&P Industry? METamorphosis Conference, St. Luis Resort, May 23, 2006; Tight Oil Supplies Security Analysts of San Francisco and NAPIA Meeting, May 8, 2006; Could The Hydrocarbon Age Be Entering The Twilight Era American Petroleum Institute, April 11, 2006; Tight Oil Supplies Northwest University Investment Committee, April 27, 2006; Tight Oil Supplies Burkenroad Reports Investment Conference, April 28, 2006; An Energy History Lesson University of Limerick, April 20, 2006; Energy In 2006: A Rough Ride Ahead Quantum Energy Partners Annual Investor Conference, April 5, 2006; Energy In 2006: A Rough Ride Ahead 2006 New Zealand Petroleum Conference, March 6, 2006; Energy In 2006: A Rough Ride Ahead EnergyWise Council Annual Forum 2006, March 9, 2006; Energy In The 21st Century: A Rough Ride Ahead Sit Investment Associates Client Workshop, February 17, 2006; Tough Energy Era Ahead Society Of Independent Professional Earth Scientists, February 16, 2006; Energy In The 21st Century: A Rough Ride Ahead British-American Business Council, February 15, 2006; China's Insatiable Energy Needs (Circa 2006) Camden Conference on China, February 11, 2006; Is Energy’s Future Sustainable? The Chilton Club, February 9, 2006; Is Energy’s Future Sustainable? Harvard University Energy Lecture, February 8, 2006; “Peak Oil” and Energy Politic Harvard University, February 8, 2006; Energy In The 21st Century The 2nd Annual Clean-Tech Investor Summit, February 1, 2006; Energy In The 21st Century: A Rough Ride Ahead Speaker's Forum/Chicago Council on Foreign Relations/Houston Society of Financial Analysts; Today’s Energy Reality: “We Are In A Deep Hole” Deloitte 2005 Oil and Gas Conference, December 7, 2005; Investing In An Uncertain Energy Future 25th Annual Editorial Writers Seminar-National Press Club, December 1, 2005; Today’s Energy Reality: We Are In A Deep Hole Texas Renewables – 2005 Conference, November 14, 2005; Ever Increasing Energy Use: Are We Facing Limits To Growth? AES Corporation, November 29, 2005; Today's Energy Reality: We Are In A Deep Hole The Houston Renewable Energy Network, November 14, 2005; Are We Entering The 21st Century’s First Crisis: Peak Oil? ASPO USA Denver World Oil Conference; Saudi Arabia's Oil: A Reality or A Mirage? Blessing Petroleum Group, LLC, November 1, 2005; An Energy Tsunami Ahead Energy I-Net Newsmaker Breakfast, October 19, 2005; Today’s Energy Reality: “We Are In A Deep Hole" EnCap Investments Annual Investor Conference, October 17, 2005 / Crosbie & Company Program, October 18, 2005; Today’s Energy Reality: “We Are In A Deep Hole" The Petroleum Club of Houston; Today’s Energy Reality: We Are In A Deep Hole Congressman Roscoe Bartlett's 2005 Energy Conferece, September 26, 2005; Are Upstream Challenges Too Daunting To Meet? Oil & Money Conference 2005, September 20, 2005; Are We Now In An Energy Hole? World Affairs Council, September 13, 2005; Depletion And Peak Oil A Serious Issue Or An Over Exaggerated Fear? American Meteorological Society Energy Briefing, July 25, 2005; An Energy Tsunami Ahead 2005 AAPL Annual Meeting, July 1, 2005.
PFC Energy & J. Robinson West, Founder & Chairman (former Assistant Secretary of the Interior, in Raegan Admin.) PFC Energy is one of Washington’s most influential international energy consulting firms. J. Robinson West predicts in Global Energy Markets, that the “tipping point” when global supply of oil ceases to grow could arrive in 2015.
Veteran Geologist, Energy Consultant to Global Corporations and Nations, Henry Groppe: Resource Investor, “Oil Forecasting Legend Discusses Peak Oil, Share Prices,” by Michael DesLauriers, 19 October, 2005, reported that, veteran petroleum geologist Henry Groppe, a Houston-based independent analyst who began his career in 1945 and who is today a consultant to global corporations as well as to nations, said in 2005 that “Total crude oil production may have peaked this year, or perhaps will peak next year.”
Ali Samsam Bakhtiari, Senior Advisor to the National Iranian Oil Company, Speaker at the ASPO-USA Conference, November 10-11, 2005: “In my humble opinion, we should now have reached 'Peak Oil'. So, it is high time to close this critical chapter in the history of the international oil industry and bid the mighty 'Peak' farewell. At present, global oil output fluctuates around 82 mb/d as some institutions try vainly to push 2005 statistics towards 83 and 84 mb/d (as they always do). But they will be obliged to backtrack as 'actual' oil supplies fail to follow their 'paper' ones. So that, in the 'Peak Oil' aftermath, we are about to enter what I call 'Transition One' [T1] --- a rather bizarre phase akin to a vague 'no-man's-land' between
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112 still adequate oil supplies and the clear realization that demand has definitely left supply behind. I see the tragic '2004 Tsunami' and the heart-breaking '2005 Katrina and Rita' as the precursor signs to 'T1'” Australian Media show…..
International Organisations International Organisations G8 Group Research Report International Energy Agency
G.8 Research Group Report Peak Oil mentioned in G8 report, PeakOil.com: “The G8 Research Group has released a report on G8 priorities at the 2006 St. Petersburg Summit.. Peak Oil is mentioned on pages 45-46.” Extract Provided in Article on Energy Bulletin: “Peak Oil Theory: In 1956, the geophysicist Marion King Hubbert correctly predicted that American oil production would peak sometime between 1966 and 1972. He made his bold prediction by analyzing the quantity of oil in existing reserves, the number and size of new discoveries, and knowledge of production profiles of producing oil wells. …. Conducting similar analyses on the world oil supply, individuals such as investment banker and presidential adviser Matthew Simmons predicted that the global “Hubbert’s Peak” would occur in 2005, followed by a precipitous fall.285 By 2025, global oil production is expected to have declined 43% to 48 million bpd. This projected shortfall of almost 70 million bpd prompted several analysts, including Goldman Sachs researcher Arjun Murti and CIBC Chief Economist Jeff Rubin, to predict a “super spike” in oil prices of up to $100-$120 per barrel in the next few years. … According to Eric Sprott of Sprott Asset Management, “demand for oil is so inelastic that its rising price has done nothing to slow demand in the last two years. There are simply no alternatives to energy.” … It should be noted, however, that there are many who disagree with the Peak Oil Theory, pointing to the untapped energy sources on the east and west coasts of North America, the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in northeast Alaska and the Canadian oil sands. Much of the uncertainty exists due to the opaque and unreliable information on oil production and supplies in Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries. The G8 has identified this problem in the past and encourages increased market transparency and standardized reporting between oil producers, oil consumers and oil companies. (17 July 2006) The full report can be downloaded from: http://www.g8.utoronto.ca/evaluations/csed/cs_priorities2006.pdf
International Energy Agency: ASPO report that three years ago when the first ever “Peak Oil” conference was organized in Uppsala Sweden by ASPO, very few know about Peak Oil. Today, if you make an advance search on Google with the exact phrase “Peak Oil” you will get around 2.000.000 hits. IEA says: “’Peak oil’ is now part of the general public’s vocabulary”. The new book “Resources to Reserves” is a reply from IEA on the pressure from the Peak Oil movement.
National Governments: National Governments Gov. of Sweden USA Army Corps of Engineers USA: Dept of Energy USA: Dept of Defense Renewable Energy Assessment Report USA Dept of Defense: Secretary of Defense USA Dept of Defense Publications USA Central Intelligence Agency France: Economics, Industry & Finance Ministry Prime Minister of St. Vincent & The Grenadines
The Government of Sweden: Mona Sahlin, Minister for Sustainable Development Speech at the Conference " Beyond Peak Oil ", Washington DC, May 9th 2006. (read speech). The Swedish Governments Commission on Oil Independence. Sweden became the first government to break dependence on oil! A new programme presented by the Swedish prime minister announced on October 1, 2005, that the government would appoint a commission that will try to make Sweden independent of oil by 2020. Ministers are discussing Peak Oil and ASPO now gets letters of congratulations for turning Sweden into a new direction. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences makes statement on the Peak Oil situation: The newly-formed Energy Committee at the Academy has issued a statement on the dwindling oil resources. It urges for better preparedness and stresses the responsibility of more technically advanced countries.
USA: Army Corps of Engineers: ASPO reports that a US Army Corps of Engineers report states: “Peak oil is at hand with low availability growth for the next 5 to 10 years. Once worldwide petroleum production peaks, geopolitics and market economics will result in even more significant price increases and security risks. To guess where this is all going to take us is would be too speculative. Oil wars are certainly not out of the question.” Energy Bulletin report, “US Army: Peak Oil and the Army’s Future,” by Adam Fenderson and Bart Anderson, 13 March, 2006, that a paper prepared for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers titled “Energy Trends and Implications for U.S. Army Installations” (Sept., 2005) includes the following tidbit: The supply of oil will remain fairly stable in the very near term, but oil prices will steadily increase as world production approaches its peak. The doubling of oil prices in the past couple of years is not an anomaly, but a picture of the future. Peak oil is at hand. . .
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113 USA: Department of Energy: Office of Deputy Assistant Secretary for Petroleum Reserves, Office of Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves, dated March 2004: “Strategic Significance of America’s Shale Oil Resource,” Vol. 1, “Assessment of Strategic Issues,” Office of Deputy Assistant Secretary for Petroleum Reserves, Office of Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves, U.S. Department of Energy, March 2004: The disparity between increasing production and declining reserves can have only one outcome: a practical supply limit will be reached and future supply to meet conventional oil demand will not be available. The question is when peak production will occur and what will be its ramifications. Whether the peak occurs sooner or later is a matter of relative urgency. . . . In spite of projections for growth of non-OPEC supply, it appears that non-OPEC and non-Former Soviet Union countries have peaked and are currently declining. The production cycle of countries . . . and the cumulative quantities produced reasonably follow Hubbert’s model. . . . The Nation must start now to respond to peaking global oil production to offset adverse economic and national security impacts The Dept. of Energy commissioned the following report: “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management,” February 2005, also known as the Hirsch Report, by Robert L. Hirsch, et al. US report acknowledges Peak Oil Threat, Published on 8 Mar 2005 by Adam Porter in Perpignan, France, Aljazeera.net. Archived on 10 Mar 2005: “It has long been denied that the US government bases any policy around the idea that global oil production may be in terminal decline. But a new US government-sponsored report, obtained by Aljazeera.net, does exactly that. Authored by Robert L. Hirsch, Roger Bezdek and Robert Wendling and entitled the Peaking of World Oil production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management, the report is an assessment requested by the US Department of Energy (DoE), National Energy Technology Laboratory… Hirsch has held a wide variety of positions in the US energy hierarchy including senior energy analyst at the Rand Corporation, through to a presidentially appointed assistant administrator for solar, geothermal and advanced energy systems. He has also previously worked for the US Department of Energy on numerous advisory committees, including the DoE Energy Research Advisory Board. But this brand new senior-level report on "peak oil" is unprecedented in US government circles. It is not just the existence of the report itself that is such a landmark in the current oil debate. Its conclusions also pull no punches. Uncertain timing. "World oil peaking is going to happen," the report says. Only the "timing is uncertain". "As world oil peaking is approached, excess production capacity ... will disappear, so that even minor supply disruptions will cause increased price volatility as traders, speculators, and other market participants react to supply/demand events," the report says. "Simultaneously, oil storage inventories are likely to decrease, further eroding security of supply, aggravating price volatility, and further stimulating speculation ... oil could become the price setter in the broader energy market, in which case other energy prices could well become increasingly volatile and unpredictable." This report is the clearest signal yet that the U.S government is taking the subject of "peak oil" seriously. Yet it remains to be seen what actions can be taken to stop this potentially "revolutionary" change.”
USA: Dept of Defense Renewable Energy Assessment Final Report: Office of the Secretary of Defense, Report to Congress, Department of Defense, DoD Renewable Energy Assessment Final Report, for selected excerpts see The Military is Planning for the End of the [Electric] Grid, Pentagon Documents Reveal, by Michael Kane, FTW.
USA: Department of Defense: Secretary of Defense Former US secretary of defense: James R. Schlesinger, the 12th Secretary of Defense of the USA, before the committee on foreign relations, used ASPO data when future production of oil was discussed. As reported by Richard Heinberg, in George W. Bush & Peak Oil: Beyond Incompetence: James Schlesinger, who served as CIA director in the Nixon administration, defense secretary in the Nixon and Ford administrations, and energy secretary in the Carter administration, in November, 2005 testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee urged lawmakers to begin preparing for declining oil supplies and increasing prices in the coming decades. “We are faced with the possibility of a major economic shock and the political unrest that would ensue,” he said. The Office of Force Transformation (headed by Ken Krieg) and the Under Secretary for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics, supported by the Cebrowski Institute, have been hosting a series of dialogues on the theme “Energy: A Conversation About Our National Addiction” since March 2006. The dialogues are bringing high level attention to these important topics by providing a forum to engage senior leaders, academics and researchers, both inside and outside of the government. The speakers as of end June 2006 included R. James Woolsey, Former Director of the CIA , Congressman Roscoe Bartlett and Dr. Robert Hirsch, Jeremy Rifkin, Matt Simmons, Dr. Michael Pacheco and Suzanne Hunt (on Biofuels). Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has asked the Pentagon to examine ways the department can address its own oil use. Gordon England, the deputy defense secretary, is expected soon to announce a new office under Krieg’s supervision to coordinate the department’s oil use
USA: Department of Defense: Pentagon and Peak Oil Publications: Pentagon & Peak Oil: A Military Literature Review overviews Department of Defense Publications which studied or referenced Peak Oil, as being: Leonard G. Gaston, “Resource Shortages: How Serious?”, Air University Review, July-August 1983. Robert E. Armstrong, “From Petro to Agro: Seeds of a New Economy,” Defense Horizons, A publication of the Center for Technology and National Security Policy, National Defense University, October 2002. Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review Report 2001, September 30, 2001. Timothy Coffey, Dennis R. Hardy, Gottfried E. Besenbruch, Kenneth R. Schultz, Lloyd C. Brown, and Jill P. Dahlburg, “Hydrogen as a Fuel for DOD”, Defense Horizons, Center for Technology and National Security Policy, National Defense University, Number 36, November 2003: “While there is no near-term fuel crisis facing DoD, this situation is likely to change over the coming decades as fossil fuel reserves deplete and world demand for them grows. DoD will be confronted with some significant challenges, ranging from protecting U.S. interests as supply and demand come into increasing conflict, to resolving defense-unique fuel requirements as the Nation moves to alternate fuels.” They mention two reasons for such as move: “the ultimate depletion of oil and natural-gas reserves,
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114 and environmental considerations such as the production of carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas. While there is considerable disagreement over when fossil fuel resources will be depleted, there is little disagreement that eventually they will run out.” David L. Greene, Janet Hopson and Jia Li, “Running out of and into oil: Analyzing Global Oil Depletion and Transition Through 2050”, Presentation at the Energy Options for the Future meeting hosted at the Naval Research Laboratory Conference Center on Washington, DC, 11-12 March 2004. A summary report of the conference is available. Joey Dodgen, “Imperialism 21: Hedging and Abandoning History”, Working Paper, Joint Forces Staff College, 08 April 2004. Lieutenant Commander Dodgen writes: “As far-fetched as it sounds, the advantages captured through colonial or imperial ventures would be numerous, including, but certainly not limited to, resource control and forward military basing…Economic imperialism is crucial to securing resources, maintaining favorable trade, and calming America’s business market amidst the daily turmoil of global terrorism. Economic imperialism is of no less importance to the United States than military imperialism.” Donald F. Fournier and Eileen T. Westervelt, “Energy Trends and Their Implications for U.S. Army Installations”, ERDC/CERL TR-0521, Construction Engineering Research Laboratory, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, September 2005. See also for a more detailed discussion by the editors of Energy Bulletin: “The doubling of oil prices from 2003-2005 is not an anomaly, but a picture of the future. Oil production is approaching its peak; low growth in availability can be expected for the next 5 to 10 years.” The report depicts the likely shape of future geopolitics: “In conclusion, we are clearly entering a very different period for global energy markets and relations. We shall continue to face geopolitical risks and uncertainties and concerns around energy security will continue to rise. Petroleum will remain the most strategic and political energy commodity with natural gas running a close second. .…The roles of leading actors in the global energy system will also change as the center of gravity for oil production shifts back towards the Middle East and Central Asia….Oil wars are certainly not out of the question.”. John M. Amidon, America’s strategic imperative: a “Manhattan Project” for energy, Joint Forces Quarterly, Issue 39, 4th Quarter 2005, pp. 68-77. The essay was the 3rd place winner for the 2005 CJCS Strategic Essay Contest. Note: It is strange that Air University puts Energy Bulletin version of the paper on its website. Lieutenant Colonel Amidon first admits that current energy strategy of the US assumes oil needs to be met “by managing the oil-producing countries diplomatically and militarily.” He continues with “However, this thinking overestimates the available oil supply, ignores growing instability in the oil-producing countries, and understates the military costs of preserving access.” He is doubtful that “any military, even that of a global hegemony, could secure an oil lifeline indefinitely. Failing to take urgent economic steps now will necessitate more painful economic steps later and likely require protracted military action.” Richard Fullerton, “The Future: Oil, America, and the Air Force”, Air & Space Power Journal, Winter 2005. “Future Fuels”, presentation to Flag Officers & Senior Executive Service, 4 October 2005, The Pentagon Auditorium. Michael J. Hornitschek, War Without Oil - A Catalyst for True Transformation, Masters Thesis on DoD Energy Transformation, Naval Postgraduate School, Cebrowski Institute, 17 February 2006. Dennis D. Tewksbury, “Preemptive Energy Security: An Aggressive Approach to Meeting America’s Requirements,” US Army War College Strategy Research Project, 15 March 2006: Lieutenant Colonel Tewksbury argues that “This country must be prepared to deploy military forces to secure supplies if we encounter a situation in which we are denied access to oil…..The challenges for the remaining oil reserves are quite simple: none exists within the United States; harvesting known reserves will be difficult; and a majority of them are concentrated in volatile areas. The consequences of a depleting supply are dire. …..our national strategy must identify the nation’s access to adequate supplies of oil as a vital national interest. The dire economic, social, and political consequences associated with a severe reduction in imported oil justify the use of military action, regardless of world opinion. We must act unilaterally if the circumstances warrant such action.”. Nader Elhefnawy, “Toward a Long-Range Energy Security Policy”, Parameters, US Army War College Quarterly, Spring 2006, pp. 10114. Thomas D. Kraemer, “Addicted to Oil: Strategic Implications of American Oil Policy”, Carliste Papers in Security Strategy, Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College, 31 May 2006. Scott C. Buchanan, “Energy and Force Transformation”, Joint Force Quarterly, 3rd Quarter 2006, pp. 51-54.
USA: Central Intelligence Agency (CIA): Smoking Gun: The CIA's Interest in Peak Oil (Special to From the Wilderness) by Richard Heinberg. [A recently declassified 1977 CIA study on Peak Oil in the Soviet Union is a telling indicator that Peak Oil issues have been of secret concern to policy makers in the US for a long time. Here, Professor Richard Heinberg, author of the best-selling book "The Party's Over" describes what the CIA was looking at, and offers some insight as to why…] See former CIA Director, James Woolsey’s written testimony before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, where both Houses recognized Peak Oil. The hearing was titled The High Costs of Crude: The New Currency of Foreign Policy.” See also: Membership of Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. See hearing at Senate Foreign Relations Archives. See also Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS): National Security to Lead Renewable Energy Deployment: U.S. Energy Independence Goals Propel Renewable Energy to Next Phase, by Jesse Broehl, Editor, RenewableEnergyAccess.com, 14 December 2004: “Some of the most poignant dialogue stressing the national security angle at the conference came from a panel with considerable experience in that realm. These speakers included R. James Woolsey, former Director of Central Intelligence, Frank Gaffney and Bud McFarlane, former national security advisors to President Reagan, C. Boyden Gray, former White House Counsel to President G.H.W. Bush, and Adm. Dennis McGinn, USN (Ret.), former Deputy Chief of Naval Operations. All were keen to focus in on Middle East regimes that assure our petroleum needs but, at most, only tacitly assure our national interests. "We find ourselves dependent on imports from people who, by and large, are hostile to us," Frank Gaffney said. "It makes (energy independence) a national security imperative…. "I fear we're going to be at war for decades, not years," Woolsey said. "It will last a long time and it will have a major ideological component. Ultimately we will win it but one major component of that war is oil." GlobalCorp: I am not a Politician: The Fire is No Longer on It’s Way, It has Begun, “THE CIA:… I recently had a conversation with someone who spent 17 years in the CIA's Directorate of Operations. Thinking of the purge and power shift that has - over the course of the last nine months - decimated the Central Intelligence Agency (long my Bête Noir) and shifted much of its power to the
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115 Pentagon, I asked the following question. "Look, the agency does many things in many roles from raw intelligence gathering, to economic warfare, to satellite recon, to paramilitary operations requiring cover and deniability, to drug smuggling. But since its inception it was always focused in large part on medium and long-term intelligence gathering and covert operations through the costly, patient, expensive means of placing NOCs (non-official covers) or assets in missions where it might take five, ten or fifteen years to bear fruit. These programs were always centered on "what if" contingencies which inherently implied that multiple outcomes were possible; that there were alternative futures to be influenced and shaped. "Battlefield intelligence is a different critter. It presupposes that there is nothing more important than the battle that has been joined at this moment. If the battle is not won, there are no future choices. Hence nothing matters other than the war that is being fought today. No Yaltas or Potsdams; no future deep cover moles will be needed. "Every country in the world is betting everything it has on this one hand knowing that after 2007 or 2008 the game ends. The map of the future after that is unknowable and, to large extent, irrelevant. That's why Rumsfeld has won the battle to control American intelligence operations and why the new National Intelligence Director John Negroponte is getting the job. "Is that right?" Without the slightest hesitation the former CIA employee answered, "Yes."
France: Economics, Industry and Finance Ministry: A French report from the Economics, Industry & Finance Ministry, “The Oil Industry 2004,” took a careful look at future supply issues, forecasting a possible peak in world production as early as 2013. See http://www.gnn.tv/articles/2185/George_W_Bush_and_Peak_Oil_Beyond_Incompetence and http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4077802.stm
Prime Minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines In a Book Review for Peak Oil Paradigm Shift: The Urgent Need for a Sustainable Energy Model (Hardcover) by Bilaal Abdullah, the Hon. Ralph Gonsalves - Prime Minister of St Vincent and the Grenadines writes: “This book clearly and in easily understood language makes the case that world oil production is about to peak...”
National Representative Bodies & Individuals: Presidents, Governors, Congressmen, etc: National Representative Bodies USLAW: US Labour Against the War USA Senate Committee on Foreign Relations USA House of Representatives Congressman Roscoe Bartlett Richard D. Lamm Michael Meacher (UK) Australian Politician Secretary of State: Condoleeza-Rice Vice President Dick Cheney Bill Clinton George Bush
USLAW: US Labour Against the War USLAW: The Oil Factor: Behind the War on Terror, Documentary: at: http://www.uslaboragainstwar.org/article.php?id=6733
USA: Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Hearing on Peak Oil: “THERE HAS TO BE A BIG CRISIS”: Senate Acknowledges Coming Energy Crisis. Both Houses of Congress Recognize Peak Oil. Still No Talk Addressing Unsustainable Lifestyle, by Michael Kane, FTW: “On November 16, 2005, the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations held a hearing on Peak Oil and the coming American energy crisis that is too close for comfort: so close, in fact, that the Senators and witnesses present repeatedly called such a crisis both unavoidable and necessary. This came on the heels of an announcement that a Congressional Peak Oil Caucus had been formed within the House of Representatives. Thus far there is still no talk on Capitol Hill addressing the unsustainable nature of “the American way of life.” The hearing, chaired by Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN), was titled The High Costs of Crude: The New Currency of Foreign Policy.” See also: Membership of Senate Committee on Foreign Relations; James Woolsey’s written testimony; James Schlesinger’s written testimony; The hearing can be seen in full on Real Player at the Senate Foreign Relations Archives, or at the Senate Foreign Relations Hearings, and click on High Costs of Crude: The New Currency of Foreign Policy
USA: House of Representatives Peak Oil Caucus & Peak Oil House Resolution 507: Peak Oil Caucus Formed in the US House of Representatives: Congressman Roscoe Bartlett (MD), Congressman James McGovern (MA), Congressman Vern Ehlders (MI), Congressman Tom Udall (NM), Congressman Mark Udall (CO), Congressman Raul Grijalva (AZ), Congressman Wayne Gilchrest (MD), Congressman Jim Moran (VA), Congressman Dennis Moore (KS). At the same moment, there appeared a “sense of the House” resolution on Peak Oil. Though it has no immediate legislative consequences, it’s a landmark document. House Resolution 507, on October 24, 2005, declares: “…Resolved, That it is the sense of the House of Representatives that -- (1) in order to keep energy costs affordable, curb our environmental impact, and safeguard economic prosperity, including our trade deficit, the United States must move rapidly to increase the productivity with which it uses fossil fuel, and to accelerate the transition to renewable fuels and a sustainable, clean energy economy; and (2) the United States, in collaboration with other international allies, should establish an energy project with the magnitude, creativity, and sense of urgency of the `Man on the Moon’ project to develop a comprehensive plan to address the challenges presented by Peak Oil.”
Congressman Roscoe Bartlett (R, MD): Founded the House of Representatives Peak Oil Caucus. His leadership on the Peak Oil issue is unparalleled across the entire US government today. For example:--
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116 Rep. Bartlett showed that he is in command of the most daunting reaches of the problem. He knows that “There is no such thing, ultimately, as sustainable growth.” (Hear his presentation at the Denver ASPO-USA Conference here: for the frank admission about “sustainable growth,” go to 18:56). He knows that “our whole monetary system is based on the premise that we will always have growth.” And he knows that those two insights add up to a new world of sacrifice and transformation. Congressman Bartlett discusses Peak Oil with President Bush: Published on Thursday, June 30, 2005 by Bartlett website, By Staff: “This afternoon, Congressman Roscoe Bartlett enjoyed an extensive discussion about peak oil with President George W. Bush at the White House. Congressman Bartlett declined to discuss or characterize any of his private conversation with the President, but said that he was very happy about the meeting. Congressman Roscoe Bartlett has discussed global peak oil extensively in the past seven weeks including six Special Order speeches. Copies of the text and charts are posted on Congressman Bartlett's website at www.bartlett.house.gov. Congressman Bartlett was a guest on a one-half hour program, E&E TV's "On Point," on Monday, April 18 2006. Host Colin Sullivan, Editor of Environment and Energy Daily, moderated the discussion about peak oil with Congressman Bartlett and Mr. Roger Diwan, Managing Director, Markets and Countries Group, PFC Energy. "Peak oil is not unique to America," added Congressman Bartlett. "There is a consensus among energy experts that global peak oil will occur and is fast approaching. Forty percent of the world's oil is shipped through the Straits of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf that is vulnerable to terrorist attacks. China increased its oil imports 25 percent last year. China is investing in oil projects around the globe and building a blue water navy to secure oil shipping lanes." “….American needs a national energy policy and a program on a scale of the Manhattan Project that developed the atomic bomb during World War II to prevent or mitigate the consequences of global peak oil. Doing nothing or doing too little too late will lead to a global economic and geopolitical tsunami with potentially devastating ramifications." Congressman Bartlett’s speech on the floor of the House: Energy Production and Supply
Richard D. Lamm (Former three-term CO Governor) Speaker at ASPO-USA Denver Conference on the culture of growth within a culture of resource limits as expressed in The Culture of Growth and the Culture of Limits, formerly published in The Social Contract, TSC Journal (Vol. 9, No. 3; Spring, 1999). Mr. Lamm is currently Co-Director of the Institute for Public Policy Studies at the University of Denver. He is both a lawyer (Berkeley, 1961) and a Certified Public Accountant. Lamm has appeared on virtually every national news program and has always been in the forefront of political change. As a first year legislator, he drafted and succeeded in passing the nation’s first liberalized abortion law. He was an early leader of the environmental movement, and was President of the First National Conference on Population and The Environment. Reacting to the high cost of campaigning, he walked the state in his campaign for Governor of Colorado.
Michael Meacher, UK Environment Minister 1997 – 2003: Authored article in UK Telegraph: Our only hope lies in forging a new energy world order, stating that "Alternatives like biofuels, ethanol or biomass can play a marginal supportive role but nowhere near on the scale required. When the oil runs out the economic and social dislocation will be unprecedented." This war on terrorism is bogus. The 9/11 attacks gave the US an ideal pretext to use force to secure its global domination, Michael Meacher, Saturday, September 6, 2003, The Guardian; Meacher sparks fury over claims on September 11 and Iraq war. Fury over Meacher claims, Ewen MacAskill, diplomatic editor, September 6, 2003, The Guardian.
Australian Politician: Australian Politician Goes on Record about Peak Oil and Gas, March 9, 2005 by Global Public Media, and FTW.
Secretary of State, Ms. Concoleeza Rice: Excerpt from Congressman Roscoe Bartlett’s speech, Energy Production and Supply, in the Congressional Record: “Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, made a statement that I would like to read. In this statement she said: “We do have to do something about the energy problem. I can tell you that nothing has really taken me aback more as Secretary of State than the way that the politics of energy is, I will use the word ‘warping diplomacy,' around the world. We have simply got to do something about the warping now of diplomatic effort by the all-out rush for energy supply.''”
Vice President Dick Cheney: Mr. Cheneys statements in a 1999 speech, while CEO of Halliburton; A report commissioned by Cheney and released in April 2001 states: “The most significant difference between now and a decade ago is the extraordinarily rapid erosion of spare capacities at critical segments of energy chains. Today, shortfalls appear to be endemic. Among the most extraordinary of these losses of spare capacity is in the oil arena.” Vice President Cheney’s National Energy Policy Development Group (NEPDG): In May 2001, the conservative legal watchdog group Judicial Watch filed suit to see the records of Mr Cheney's National Energy Policy Development Group (NEPDG), followed later by the Government Accounting Office (GAO) the following February. In July 2003, after appealing a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request for NEPDG documents, Judicial Watch won a small victory with the release of seven pages of NEPDG documents. The documents can be viewed online at Judicial Watch. Media commentary on the documents include FTW’s article In Your Face.
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117 Alternet: Bill Clinton Acknowledges Peak Oil, June 22, 2006: Clinton said a “significant number of petroleum geologists” have warned that the world could be nearing the peak in oil production. Clinton suggested that at current consumption rates (now more than 30 billion barrels per year, according to the International Energy Agency), the world could be out of “recoverable oil” in 35 to 50 years, elevating the risk of “resource-based wars of all kinds”…. At the AAN convention, Clinton delivered a detailed scientific explanation of some of the problems with the Ghawar oil reservoir. Clinton echoed Simmons’s claim that massive amounts of water have been injected into Ghawar to maintain oil pressure. “It implies less oil than we previously thought,” Clinton said. Clinton also recommended that everyone at the convention read The Empty Tank: Oil, Gas, Hot Air, and the Coming Global Financial Catastrophe (Random House, 2005), by Jeremy Leggett, a petroleum geologist and international campaigner for Greenpeace. (For more information on the book, see the Straight’s January 5-12, 2006, edition at www.straight.com/.) Clinton also emphasized the importance of developing the alternative-energy industry and weaning his country off its dependence on imported oil. He claimed that promoting renewable power would also stimulate the American economy. “Unlike us, the U.K. has found a source of new jobs in this decade,” he said, referring to the Blair government’s efforts in this area. “The implications are dire if we don’t do something.”
President George W. Bush: In May 2001, Bush stated, "What people need to hear loud and clear is that we’re running out of energy in America." President Bush’s Peak Oil Meeting with Congressman Roscoe Bartlett.
Peak Oil Books: Clusterfuck Nation & Long Emergency, Kunstler Twilight in the Desert…., Simmons Crossing the Rubicon.. Ruppert Limits to Growth… Meadows Beyond Oil…. Deffeyes Blood & Oil….. Jaded Tasks… Madsen Oil, Jihad & Destiny … Cooke Out of Gas… Goodstein Peak Oil Paradigm Shift… Abdullah Peak Oil Survival … McBay Powerdown…. The Party’s Over … Heinberg. Resource Wars….Klare The Coming Economic Collapse… Leeb
Clusterfuck Nation, & The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the TwentyFirst Century, James H. Kunstler. James Howard Kunstler. x + 307 pp. Atlantic Monthly Press, 2005. $23. Reviews: The American Scientist Online, The End is Nigh, by David Ehrenfeld, professor of biology at Rutgers University: “The book's lengthy discussion of the alternatives to cheap oil that are so beloved by techno-optimists is straightforward and sobering. Kunstler gives all of the alternatives a critical but fair inquiry, from conventional energy sources such as coal and natural gas, through oil shales and tar sands, synthetic oil, renewable energy (including wind, solar and hydroelectric power and biomass), nuclear fission and nuclear fusion, hydrogen, thermal depolymerization (turning organic waste into oil), methane hydrates and even zero-point energy. Most of these technologies founder on "the classic problem of energy economics: energy returned over energy invested (ERoEI). "The figure in the case of tar sands and oil shale is approximately three barrels of oil produced for every two barrels of oil-equivalent invested. In the case of ethanol produced from agribusiness corn or sugar cane, the ratio may be less than one..
Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy by Mathew R. Simmons (Hardcover - Jun 10, 2005) “With a field-by-field assessment of its key oilfields, he highlights many discrepancies between Saudi Arabia's actual production potential and its seemingly extravagant resource claims. Parts 1 and 2 of the book offer background and context for understanding the technical discussion of Saudi oil fields and the world's energy supplies. Parts 3 and 4 contain analysis of Saudi Arabia's oil and gas industry based on the technical papers published by the Society of Petroleum Engineers. Simmons suggests that when Saudi Arabia and other Middle East producers can no longer meet the world's enormous demand, world leaders and energy specialists must be prepared for the consequences of increased scarcity and higher costs of oil that support our modern society. Without authentication of the Saudi's production sustainability claims, the author recommends review of this critical situation by an international forum.” By Amazon.com
Crossing the Rubicon, by Michael C. Ruppert & The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream: Crossing the Rubicon: Simplifying the case against Dick Cheney (for 911 Complicity), by Michael Kane, January 18, 2005: …… We eat oil. Without cheap oil, billions of people will freeze or starve and unfortunately, there is no combination of renewable energy sources that can replace oil and gas consumption without massive conservation efforts that are nowhere in sight. Cheney knew about this. There are no national plans for conservation in America. As Dick Cheney has stated, "The American way of life is not negotiable." Overconsumption is as American as apple pie. Many industry experts have been speaking to the reality of Peak Oil for some time. One of those experts - perhaps the most prominent in the world - was in Dick Cheney's National Energy Policy Development Group (NEPDG). Just four days after Dick Cheney became Vice President he convened the NEPDG. Among the experts whose opinion Cheney paid for (with taxpayer dollars) was Matthew Simmons, one of the most respected energy investment bankers in the world. Simmons has been speaking out about Peak Oil for years, and there is no question that the urgent story of Peak Oil is what he told Cheney's NEPDG. A crisis of this magnitude required a crisis plan, something the Neo-Liberals didn't have. The Neo-Conservatives, including Dick Cheney, had such a plan: manufacture a crisis - one that had long been imagined as necessary by elite planners inside the national security state 14- and use it to maintain permanent war to steal the world's last remaining hydrocarbons and temporarily stave off the Peak Oil crisis. (Click
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118 here for a summary of these points) (3) Opportunity - 9/11 War Games: The Air Force was running multiple war games on the morning of 9/11 simulating hijackings over the continental United States that included (at least) one "live-fly" exercise as well as simulations that placed "false blips" on FAA radar screens. These war games eerily mirrored the real events of 9/11 to the point of the Air Force running drills involving hijacked aircraft as the 9/11 plot actually unfolded. The war games & terror drills played a critical role in ensuring no Air Force fighter jocks - who had trained their entire lives for this moment - would be able to prevent the attacks from succeeding. These exercises were under Dick Cheney's management. 9/11 made possible what Dick Cheney called, "The war that won't end in our lifetimes." This is a war that is chasing the last remaining hydrocarbons across the globe. The "war on terror" is in reality an energy war and 9/11 was its pretext (Click here for a summary of these points) Here is the supporting documentation as laid out in Crossing the Rubicon, making a legal case against Dick Cheney for the crimes of 9/11; Briefing Paper: The Case for Bush Administration Advance Knowledge of 9-11 Attacks, by Michael C. Ruppert, FTW, 22 April 2002.
Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Update, by Dennis Meadows Review by From Publishers Weekly: Updated for the second time since 1992, this book, by a trio of professors and systems analysts, offers a pessimistic view of the natural resources available for the world's population. Using extensive computer models based on population, food production, pollution and other data, the authors demonstrate why the world is in a potentially dangerous "overshoot" situation. Put simply, overshoot means people have been steadily using up more of the Earth's resources without replenishing its supplies. The consequences, according to the authors, may be catastrophic: "We... believe that if a profound correction is not made soon, a crash of some sort is certain. And it will occur within the lifetimes of many who are alive today." After explaining overshoot, the book discusses population and industrial growth, the limits on available resources, pollution, technology and, importantly, ways to avoid overshoot. The authors do an excellent job of summarizing their extensive research with clear writing and helpful charts illustrating trends in food consumption, population increases, grain production, etc., in a serious tome likely to appeal to environmentalists, government employees and public policy experts.
Beyond Oil : The View from Hubbert's Peak by Kenneth Deffeyes From Publishers Weekly: “For those who wonder why certain countries insist on developing nuclear power, geologist Deffeyes has a possible answer: "World oil production has ceased growing." In this sobering, instructive and somewhat apocalyptic book, Deffeyes (Hubbert's Peak) paints a bleak picture of the future of fossil fuels and of what will happen to the world without them. Deffeyes bases his book on the work of M. King Hubbert, who mathematically determined that the world's oil supply would peak in 2000 and then drop steadily thereafter. Deffeyes tackles the mathematics of Hubbert's method and offers his own prediction (that the peak will occur at the end of 2005), but there is plenty here for those who aren't enamored with numbers, including a crash course in the slow evolution of oil. Oil and its related petroleum byproducts, Deffeyes points out, have changed the world economically, technologically and socially, and its absence could have a similarly massive, though negative, effect. Deffeyes predicts that famine, war and death will result from the shortages, but he does more than just sound the alarm: a large portion of the book is devoted to surveying the pros and cons of alternative resources like coal and hydrogen. Though Deffeyes offers only a few practical suggestions for the reader, most of which are obvious (i.e., get on a waitlist for a hybrid car), this is an earnestly written cautionary tale and a great resource for anyone looking to become energy literate. B&W illustrations and diagrams.
Hubbert's Peak : The Impending World Oil Shortage, by Kenneth Deffeyes From Scientific American: “You have to wonder about the judgment of a man who writes, "As I drive by those smelly refineries on the New Jersey Turnpike, I want to roll the windows down and inhale deeply." But for Kenneth S. Deffeyes, that's the smell of home. The son of a petroleum engineer, he was born in Oklahoma, "grew up in the oil patch," became a geologist and worked for Shell Oil before becoming a professor at Princeton University. And he still knows how to wield a 36-inch-long pipe wrench. In Hubbert's Peak, Deffeyes writes with good humor about the oil business, but he delivers a sobering message: the 100-year petroleum era is nearly over. Global oil production will peak sometime between 2004 and 2008, and the world's production of crude oil "will fall, never to rise again." If Deffeyes is right--and if nothing is done to reduce the increasing global thirst for oil--energy prices will soar and economies will be plunged into recession as they desperately search for alternatives. It's tempting to dismiss Deffeyes as just another of the doomsayers who have been predicting, almost since oil was discovered, that we are running out of it. But Deffeyes makes a persuasive case that this time it's for real. This is an oilman and geologist's assessment of the future, grounded in cold mathematics. And it's frightening. Deffeyes's prediction is based on the work of M. King Hubbert, a Shell geologist who in 1956 predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s and then begin to decline. Hubbert was dismissed by many experts inside and outside the oil industry. Pro-Hubbert and anti-Hubbert factions arose and persisted until 1970, when U.S. oil production peaked and started its long decline. The Hubbert method is based on the observation that oil production in any region follows a bell-shaped curve. Production increases rapidly at first, as the cheapest and most readily accessible oil is recovered. As the difficulty of extracting the oil increases, it becomes more expensive and less competitive with other fuels. Production slows, levels off and begins to fall. Hubbert demonstrated that total U.S. oil production in 1956 was tracing the upside of such a curve. To know when the curve would most likely peak, however, he had to know how much oil remained in the ground. Underground reserves provide a glimpse of the future: when the rate of new discoveries does not keep up with the growth of oil production, the amount of oil remaining underground begins to fall. That's a tip-off that a decline in production lies ahead. Deffeyes used a slightly more sophisticated version of the Hubbert method to make the global calculations. The numbers pointed to 2003 as the year of peak production, but because estimates of global reserves are inexact, Deffeyes settled on a range from 2004 to 2008. Three things could upset Deffeyes's prediction. One would be the discovery of huge new oil deposits. A second would be the development of drilling technology that could squeeze more oil from known reserves. And a
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119 third would be a steep rise in oil prices, which would make it profitable to recover even the most stubbornly buried oil. In a delightfully readable and informative primer on oil exploration and drilling, Deffeyes addresses each point. First, the discovery of new oil reserves is unlikely--petroleum geologists have been nearly everywhere, and no substantial finds have been made since the 1970s. Second, billions have already been poured into drilling technology, and it's not going to get much better. And last, even very high oil prices won't spur enough new production to delay the inevitable peak. "This much is certain," he writes. "No initiative put in place starting today can have a substantial effect on the peak production year. No Caspian Sea exploration, no drilling in the South China Sea, no SUV replacements, no renewable energy projects can be brought on at a sufficient rate to avoid a bidding war for the remaining oil." The only answer, Deffeyes says, is to move as quickly as possible to alternative fuels--including natural gas and nuclear power, as well as solar, wind and geothermal energy. "Running out of energy in the long run is not the problem," Deffeyes explains. "The bind comes during the next 10 years: getting over our dependence on crude oil." The petroleum era is coming to a close. "Fossil fuels are a one-time gift that lifted us up from subsistence agriculture and eventually should lead us to a future based on renewable resources," Deffeyes writes. Those are strong words for a man raised in the oil patch. For the rest of us, the end of the world's dependence on oil means we need to make some tough political and economic choices. For Deffeyes, it means he can't go home again.” Paul Raeburn covers science and energy for Business Week and is the author of Mars: Uncovering the Secrets of the Red Planet (National Geographic, 1998). --This text refers to the Hardcover edition
Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America's Growing Dependence on Imported Petroleum, by Michael Klare Publishers Weekly Review: The world's rapidly growing economy is dependent on oil, the supply is running out and the U.S. and other great powers are engaged in an escalating game of brinkmanship to secure its continued free flow. Such is the premise of Klare's powerful and brilliant new book (following Resource Wars). The U.S.—with less than 5% of the world's total population—consumes about 25% of the world's total supply of oil, he argues. With no meaningful conservation being attempted, Klare sees the nation's energy behavior dominated by four key trends: "an increasing need for imported oil; a pronounced shift toward unstable and unfriendly suppliers in dangerous parts of the world; a greater risk of anti-American or civil violence; and increased competition for what will likely be a diminishing supply pool." In clear, lucid prose, Klare lays out a disheartening and damning indictment of U.S. foreign policy. From the waning days of WWII, when Franklin Roosevelt gave legitimacy to the autocratic Saudi royalty, to the current conflict in Iraq, Klare painstakingly describes a nation controlled by its unquenchable thirst for oil. Rather than setting out a strategy for energy independence, he finds a roadmap for further U.S. dependence on imported oil, more exposure for the U.S. military overseas and, as a result, less safety for Americans at home and abroad. While Klare offers some positive suggestions for solving the problem, in tone and detail this work sounds a dire warning about the future of the world.
Jaded Tasks: Brass Plates, Black Ops & Big Oil: The Blood Politics of George Bush & Co., by Wayne Madsen This investigative account details how America's economic and intelligence associations with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan led to the devastating September 11 attacks and illustrates the role that private military companies are playing in George W. Bush's "new world order." Based on personal interviews, never-before-published classified documents, and extensive research, this examination details the criminal forces thought to rule the world today--the Bush cartel, Russian-Ukranian-Israeli mafia, and Wahhabist Saudi terror financiers--revealing links between these groups and disastrous terrorist events. The author, Wayne Madsen’s website can be found at The Wayne Madsen Report. Wayne Madsen is a former Naval Intelligence Officer, as well as having formerly worked at the NSA. He often cites Military sources. He is also the author of Genocide and Covert Operations In Africa, 1993-1999 (Edward Mellen Press, 1999). Wayne Madsen Report: ISREAL INVASION OF LEBANON: July 22/23, 2006 -- The Israeli invasion of Lebanon was planned between top Israeli officials and members of the Bush administration. On June 17 and 18, former Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Likud Knesset member Natan Sharansky met with Vice President Dick Cheney at the American Enterprise Institute conference in Beaver Creek, Colorado. There, the impending Israeli invasions of both Gaza and Lebanon were discussed. After receiving Cheney's full backing for the invasion of Gaza and Lebanon, Netanyahu flew back to Israel and participated in a special "Ex-Prime Ministers" meeting, in which he conveyed the Bush administration's support for the carrying out of the "Clean Break" policy -- the trashing of all past Middle East peace accords, including Oslo. Present at the meeting, in addition to Netanyahu, were current Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and former Prime Ministers Ehud Barak and Shimon Peres. Former Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir is very old and suffers from dementia and Ariel Sharon remains in a coma after a series of strokes….. Our Washington sources claim that the U.S.-supported invasions of Gaza and Lebanon and the impending attacks on Syria and Iran represent the suspected "event" predicted to take place prior to the November election in the United States and is an attempt to rally the American public around the Bush-Cheney regime during a time of wider war…… WMR has also learned that top Israeli and U.S. military officers are adamantly opposed to the Clean Break policy. Many Israeli generals, remembering Israel's bloody occupation of Lebanon in the 1980s, favored negotiating a prisoner swap with Hezbollah. The Olmert government is purging the last remnants of the Yitzhak Rabin elements who favored negotiations from the Israeli military and intelligence agencies much in the same way that opponents of the Bush regime have been purged from the U.S. military, CIA, and State Department. Wayne Madsen Report: ISRAEL USING POISON GAS ON VILLAGES IN S. LEBANON: July 20, 2006 -- WMR reported that the Israeli military was using poison gas on villages in south Lebanon. According to a former U.S. weapons expert who served in Iraq, the artillery shell in a photo taken in Lebanon (below) is a chemical weapon delivery device. It is being handled by
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120 an Israeli Defense Force soldier and Hebrew lettering can be clearly seen on the armored vehicle. Another chemical weapons shell of the same type can be seen lying on the ground to the right. It is not known what type of chemical is in the chemical canister, however, gas dropped by the Israelis in villages in southern Lebanon has resulted in severe vomiting among the civilian population. Wayne Madsen Report: IRAN: PLANS TO PRE-EMPT WAR WITH IRAN: July 21/22/23, 2006 -- UPDATED -- Informed sources have told WMR that arch-neocon Michael Ledeen, who acts as an unofficial foreign policy adviser to Karl Rove, was at the White House yesterday with a group of Iranian opposition figures. Among the topics discussed was a promised $25 million grant by the Bush administration to the Iranian insurgents. The deal is said to involve the Iran interlocutor from the Iran-Contra scandal, Manucher Ghorbanifar. The money is to be used to plant Desert Storm-vintage biological and chemical weapons shells, confiscated by U.S. forces in Iraq, on the Iranian side of the Iraqi border. The weapons will be used as "proof" of Iran's plan to "attack" U.S. troops in Iraq. That will be used to justify, ex post facto, the coming U.S. attack on Iran. Our sources report that George W. Bush dropped by the White House meeting to offer his support to the Iranian opposition operatives. Meanwhile, the Shah's son, Reza Pahlavi II, is being given special protection and support by the CIA in the event of an expected U.S. invasion of Iran and the establishment of a U.S.-supported puppet government.
Oil, Jihad and Destiny: Will Declining Oil Production Plunge Our Planet into a Depression? by Ronald R. Cooke (Paperback - Jul 30, 2004) World oil is transitioning from a market driven by consumer demand to one limited by producer capacity. As a result, oil exporting countries are now able to control the price and the availability of an increasingly scarce commodity. Corporate behavior, government action, cultural stability, economics, legal agreements, geography, weather, crude oil transportation, military diplomacy and the always potent combination of religion and politics are now more important than geology in developing oil production forecasts. The approaching oil crisis will have a global reach, impacting the economic and cultural health of every nation. Because they have the most energy intensive economies, however, the industrial nations of North America, Europe and the Pacific Rim will suffer the greatest deterioration. We can either try to manage a "soft landing" or let nature take its course. Doing something means encouraging new attitudes about fuel production and consumption. If we do nothing, chronic recession is probable. Economic depression is possible. This research report provides a comprehensive examination of oil reserves and production, reviews the cultural challenges of the Middle East, analyzes the economic impact of four alternative oil depletion scenarios, and outlines a proposed course of action to enable a "soft landing". World oil production and consumption are evaluated by geographic region. This evaluation, along with a projection of how oil depletion could influence inflation, unemployment, economic growth and the price of gas, is presented in 8 tables and 32 charts.
Out of Gas: The End of the Age Of Oil by David Goodstein (Paperback - Feb 28, 2005) From Publishers Weekly: “Everyone agrees we will run out of fossil fuels someday-Goodstein, a Caltech professor, argues it will be sooner rather than later based on the petrochemical data available. In this alarming little book, portions of which were originally published in a bioethics journal, Goodstein explains with limited jargon that we will completely exhaust oil supplies within 10 years. He warns that we have reached, or even surpassed Hubbert's Peak, the moment when we have consumed half of all oil known to exist and will likely use the rest up even faster, due to everincreasing demand and decreasing discoveries. What will we do when all the oil is gone? Goodstein outlines two scenarios, both chilling. In the worst case, we might run out of oil so fast that the only affordable alternative is coal. In this throwback future, Goodstein writes, "the greenhouse effect that results eventually tips Earth's climate into a new state hostile to life." The best case scenario involves a methane-based fuel economy that would bridge the gap until we could build up nuclear and solar power sources to meet our long-term needs. Goodstein admits that some geologists disagree that we will deplete all oil sources within this decade, but even conservative calculations predict the price of oil will increase beyond the reach of most people within the foreseeable future. "No matter what else happens," Goodstein states, "this is the century in which we must learn to live without fossil fuels." He maintains a cautious optimism about alternative energy sources, but readers may find little comfort imagining nuclear fission energy as the next best thing.”
Peak Oil Paradigm Shift: The Urgent Need for a Sustainable Energy Model by Bilaal Abdullah Book Review by the Hon. Ralph Gonsalves - Prime Minister of St Vincent and the Grenadines: “This book clearly and in easily understood language makes the case that world oil production is about to peak...” Book Review: W. Shawn Gray, Chief Conceptualist, AuzGnosis Pty. Ltd.: “By a long chalk the best written, most comprehendible material ...I have seen on the nightmare that is Peak Oil.”
Peak Oil Survival: A Crash Course for Life After Gridcrash by Aric McBay (Paperback - Sep 1, 2006) Review: “Efforts like [PEAK OIL SURVIVAL] will serve as lifeboats. Generally speaking, it's better to build a lifeboat before the ship starts to list precariously, rather than wait for universal acknowledgment that it is in fact sinking.” —Richard Heinberg, author of The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies “Aric McBay is an extraordinary writer, thinker, and activist whose work is absolutely indispensible to the real work we all face of dismantling civilization and defending the places we love. ” —Derrick Jensen, author of A Language Older than Words and The Culture of Make Believe
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121 "PEAK OIL SURVIVAL is a solid, down-to-earth manual for human survival couched in a solid, down-to-earth analysis of why such means will be required. Get your hands on this volume." —Chellis Glendinning, author of My Name Is Chellis and I'm in Recovery from Western Civilization, Off the Map, and Chiva: A Village Takes on the Global Heroin Trade
Powerdown : Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World, by Richard Heinberg Review/Book Description: If the US continues with its current policies, the next decades will be marked by war, economic collapse, and environmental catastrophe. Resource depletion and population pressures are about to catch up with us, and no one is prepared. The political elites, especially in the US, are incapable of dealing with the situation and have in mind a punishing game of "Last One Standing." The alternative is "Powerdown," a strategy that will require tremendous effort and economic sacrifice in order to reduce percapita resource usage in wealthy countries, develop alternative energy sources, distribute resources more equitably, and reduce the human population humanely but systematically over time. While civil society organizations push for a mild version of this, the vast majority of the world's people are in the dark, not understanding the challenges ahead, nor the options realistically available. Powerdown speaks frankly to these dilemmas. Avoiding cynicism and despair, it begins with an overview of the likely impacts of oil and natural gas depletion and then outlines four options for industrial societies during the next decades: Last One Standing: the path of competition for remaining resources; Powerdown: the path of cooperation, conservation and sharing; Waiting for a Magic Elixir: wishful thinking, false hopes, and denial; Building Lifeboats: the path of community solidarity and preservation. Finally, the book explores how three important groups within global society-the power elites, the opposition to the elites (the antiwar and antiglobalization movements, et al: the "Other Superpower"), and ordinary people-are likely to respond to these four options. Timely, accessible and eloquent, Powerdown is crucial reading for our times. Richard Heinberg is an award-winning author of five previous books, including The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies. A member of the Core Faculty of New College of California, he lives in Santa Rosa, California.
The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies, by Richard Heinberg Museletter: THE PARTY'S OVER: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies: Industrial nations' fossil-fueled joyride is about to end . . . is anyone prepared?: “When Mike Bowlin, Chairman of ARCO, said in 1999 that "We've embarked on the beginning of the last days of the age of oil," he was voicing a truth that many others in the petroleum industry knew but dared not utter. Over the past few years, evidence has mounted that global oil production is nearing its historic peak. Oil has been the cheapest and most convenient energy resource ever discovered by humans. During the past two centuries, people in industrial nations accustomed themselves to a regime in which more fossil-fuel energy was available each year, and the global population grew quickly to take advantage of this energy windfall. Industrial nations also came to rely on an economic system built on the assumption that growth is normal and necessary, and that it can go on forever. When oil production peaks, those assumptions will come crashing down. As we move from a historic interval of energy growth to one of energy decline, we are entering uncharted territory. It takes some effort to adjust one's mental frame of reference to this new reality. …The likely economic consequences of the energy downturn are enormous. All human activities require energy - which physicists define as "the capacity to do work." With less energy available, less work can be done - unless the efficiency of the process of converting energy to work is raised at the same rate as energy availability declines. It will therefore be essential, over the next few decades, for all economic processes to be made more energy-efficient. However, efforts to improve efficiency are subject to diminishing returns, and so eventually a point will be reached where reduced energy availability will translate to reduced economic activity. Given the fact that our national economy is based on the assumption that economic activity must grow perpetually, the result is likely to be a recession with no bottom and no end. The oil peak will also impact international relations. Resource conflicts are nothing new: pre-state societies often fought over agricultural land, fishing or hunting grounds, horses, cattle, waterways, and other resources. Most of the wars of the twentieth century were also fought over resources - in many cases, oil. But those wars took place during a period of expanding resource extraction; the coming decades of heightened competition for fading energy resources will likely see even more frequent and deadly conflicts. The US - as the world's largest energy consumer, the center of global industrial empire, and the holder of the most powerful store of weaponry in world history - will play a pivotal role in shaping the geopolitics of the new century. To many observers, it appears that oil interests are already at the heart of the present administration's geopolitical strategy. There is much that individuals and communities can do to prepare for the energy crunch. Anything that promotes individual self-reliance (gardening, energy conservation, and voluntary simplicity) will help. But the strategy of individualist survivalism will offer only temporary and uncertain refuge during the energy down-slope. True individual and family security will come only with community solidarity and interdependence. Living in a community that is weathering the downslope well will enhance personal chances of surviving and prospering far more than will individual efforts at stockpiling tools or growing food. Meanwhile, nations must adopt radical energy conservation measures, invest in renewable energy research, support sustainable local food systems instead of giant biotech agribusiness, adopt no-growth economic and population policies, and strive for international resource cooperation agreements. Review: New Society Publishers: Richard Heinberg, author of "The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies," is very clear about the purpose of this revealing book. In the Introduction, he says, "The core message of this book is that industrial civilization is based on the consumption of energy resources that are inherently limited in quantity, and that are about to become scarce. When they do, competition for what remains will trigger dramatic economic and geopolitical events; in the end, it may be impossible for even a single nation to sustain industrialism as we have known it during the twentieth century." Advocates of a sustainable future that does not rely on fossil fuels rarely speak of the inevitable chaos that will likely result during the transition period that will follow fossil fuel depletion. "The Party's Over" may be our handbook for that chaotic transition period and a manual to prepare for what seems to be the coming inevitable dramatic change in our way of life which Heinberg says could be the "end of industrial civilization." Heinberg supports his claims with extensive references and in this revised and updated edition of "The Party's Over," makes a case that: alternative energy sources will not be able to fully substitute for the "concentrated energy source that fossil fuels provide," industrial societies are highly vulnerable to even minor reductions in energy resource availability, fossil fuel depletion is inevitable, and oil has played a major role in U.S. foreign policy, terrorism, and war. Heinberg says we must come up with a way to
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122 respond to the coming peak of oil production with "compassion and intelligence, in a way that minimizes human suffering over the short term and, over the long term, enabling future generations to develop sustainable, materially modest societies that affirm the highest and best qualities of human nature." This seems like a lot to expect of a society that has grown up for generations surrounded by a fossil fuel based economy and all the comforts and conveniences that such an economy provides. The reader might even consider starting out with last chapter of "The Party's Over" first. Its strategies and recommendations are sound, creative, and of immediate value. Following those strategies today would not only lessen the impact on society when the oil well finally does run dry, but would result in near term environmental sustainability, a shift toward more positive political and family values, and build much needed communities. I don't find the book depressing at all. In fact, I find it empowering to see the true effects of our energy choices and to learn of the many ways that we could stem the tide. But one thing is undeniable after reading this important book - the party really is over. Green Books Feasta Review: Humanity's development path is going to be thrown into reverse in the next few years by oil and gas shortages. The prospects of contraction and dislocation are frightening. It is easy to understand why Richard Heinberg wrote this book. Mankind has faced many challenges in the past but few as complex as the current one. We have not used the thirty years since the twin wake-up calls of the first OPEC oil crisis and the publication of the seminal work The Limits to Growth to reduce the demands we makes on the planet. So, having failed to take the easy steps that would have been required a generation ago, our species motors towards a major dislocation caused by the imminent end to the era of plentiful cheap oil. "I am reasonably cheerful and optimistic by nature," Heinburg writes. "However, as anyone would, I find this picture of the future to be deeply disturbing. Everyone I have met who understands population and resource issues comes to essentially the same conclusions and has to deal with the same emotional responses - which typically run the gamut from shock, denial, and rage to eventual acceptance - and a determination to do whatever is possible to help avert the worst of the likely impacts."….. Global Public Media Review: “We are entering a new era, an era of energy descent. While renewables, greater efficiency and new technology will help soften the downward curve, they cannot reverse it. We will have no choice but to give up the notion of endless economic growth and adopt a radically different lifestyle, focussing on local food production, a far less mobile society and sustainable design strategies such as permaculture that work within an understanding of natural energy constraints…. Heinberg’s book is an extremely compelling and thorough study of the current world energy situation. Though disturbing in its conclusions, I found it leant a refreshing taste of reality and honesty to a world which can feel increasingly ephemeral if viewed only through the lens of the mainstream media. What I find most intriguing about the whole issue is how, with all the miracles and gifts of the modern world, we have not escaped the fundamental concern of all nature- that of energy.
Resource Wars, The Landscape of Global Conflict, by Michael Klare From Publishers Weekly: “Klare analyzes the most likely cause of war in the century just begun: demand by rapidly growing populations for scarce resources. An introductory chapter sets the scene, laying out the complexities of rapidly increasing demand as the world industrializes, the concentration of resources in unstable states and the competing claims to ownership of resources by neighboring states. Succeeding chapters look more closely at the potential for conflict over oil in the Persian Gulf and in the Caspian and South China Seas, over water in the Nile Basin and other multinational river systems and over timber, gems and minerals from Borneo to Sierra Leone. The strength of Klare's presentation is its concreteness. His analyses of likely conflicts, for example among Syria, Jordan and Israel for the limited water delivered by the Jordan River, are informed by detailed research into projected usage rates, population growth and other relevant trends. As Klare shows, the same pattern is repeated in dozens of other locations throughout the world. Finite resources, escalating demand and the location of resources in regions torn by ethnic and political unrest all combine as preconditions of war. Klare, an expert on warfare and international security (Rogue States and Nuclear Outlaws, etc.), presents a persuasive case for paying serious attention to these impending hostilities and furnishes the basic information needed to understand their danger and the importance of international cooperation in staving off conflict. (May) Forecast: Klare's message is important, but it probably won't be heard by many beyond readers of the handful of major newspapers that will review it.”
The Coming Economic Collapse : How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel, by Stephen Leeb Book Description: With a nineteen-year history of making bold yet astonishingly accurate forecasts, it is little wonder that when Dr. Stephen Leeb speaks, smart investors take heed. In his 1986 book, Getting in on the Ground Floor, Dr. Leeb prophesied the great bull market of the 1990s. In his 1999 book, Defying the Market, he warned investors of the coming collapse in technology shares. And in February 2004, when crude oil cost under $33 a barrel, Dr. Leeb’s book The Oil Factor predicted soaring energy prices were just around the corner. Now, in THE COMING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE, Dr. Leeb proves that the U.S. economy is standing on the brink of the biggest crisis in its history. As the fast-growing economies of China and India push global demand for oil beyond production capacity, Americans will experience a permanent energy shortfall far worse than the one in the 1970s. The result will be severe financial hardship for most people, and a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for investors to become incredibly rich. Backed by meticulous research and analysis, Dr. Leeb exposes the psychological "groupthink" that has caused leaders in government, Wall Street, the oil industry, and academia to ignore the approaching crisis, until now when it is almost too late. He debunks the myth that petroleum supplies are limitless, and reveals the truth about an alternative energy source that is fast becoming cheaper than oil. In addition, he offers practical solutions such as: · The #1 skill investors need, and why advice from most financial experts will prove disastrous · How to make a fortune in oil, gold, and other inflation-sensitive sectors · Today’s leading alternative energy stocks, the new super-growth industry · Steps the government must take immediately to avoid crippling energy shortages.
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123 DVD DOCUMENTARY: The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream, directed by Gregory Green List of End of Suburbia Reviews, from EndofSuburbia Review by AlJazeera: The beginning of the end for oil, by Adam Porter in Catalunya: Tuesday 11 January 2005, 19:32 Makka Time, 16:32 GMT: One of the surprises in the oil world in 2004 was the success of an underground documentary on the perilous state of world energy. The End of Suburbia has sold more than 10,000 DVDs and has been aired on TV around the world. Now the documentary maker behind the celluloid hit has announced the follow-up, Escape From Suburbia, exclusively to Aljazeera…. Review by Orange County Weekly: With a minimum of lefty hysterics, the new documentary The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream explains how America is about to go all Mad Max on us. The simple truth is we are literally running out of gas. It isn’t news to most of us that oil is a non-renewable resource. We all remember those scratchy movies they showed us in elementary school in which cheerful cartoon dinosaurs explain the basics of fossil fuels. Many of us are even vaguely aware that fossil fuels are supposed to run out sometime in our lifetimes, but we’ve always assumed the government will cook up some sort of viable alternative fuel before things get really dire. Well, we would do well to remember that the government was supposed to have brought peace to the Middle East by now. Review by Carolyn Baker, Ph.D: I urge everyone to view the documentary "The End of Suburbia." It confronts us with the scientific and economic realities of living at the end of the age of cheap oil—realities so gargantuan that some have labeled them "the mother of all downsizing." (Well said) Let me clarify that "peak oil" is not about the planet running out of oil, but rather that the population and consumeristic lifestyle of its inhabitants has caused and will continue to cause the costs of the production of oil and natural gas to become increasingly astronomical. Moreover, due to the fact that when some three decades ago human beings had the opportunity and resources to convert to alternative forms of energy and refused to do so, the consequence of that failure was a tragic loss of time needed to make the necessary changes from fossil fuels to alternative energies. Lost time cannot be regained. Oil production has probably already peaked, and the human race now requires alternative forms within the next decade in order to avert a massive global energy crisis. However, the frightening reality is that even if nations had the political will to make the changes tomorrow, there is not enough time to do so. Therefore, the cavalier attitude that we need only convert to hydrogen, solar, wind or some other alternative energy at the last second before global catastrophe is a lifeboat full of holes that will not sustain us in the face of the realities of peak oil. Peak oil necessarily means the end of economic growth and the end of the affluent, unsustainable, waste-based lifestyle of America. It means that human beings in developed countries will be required to downsize every aspect of their lives beyond anything we can presently imagine. For those individuals who refuse to accept the reality of peak oil because they believe the planet will be rescued by aliens arriving from the far reaches of the cosmos or that somehow the evidence for peak oil is distorted or exaggerated, I encourage them to pick up a basic psychology textbook and look up the word "denial." I hasten to add that my position on this is not totally based on empirical evidence. I concur with ancient indigenous traditions that have foretold of cataclysmic events necessarily taking place on planet earth in order to transform human consciousness. Whether or not peak oil is part of such a cataclysm remains to be seen. What I do argue is that peak oil is a reality which, on a plethora of levels, we dismiss or ignore at our own peril…… i am baffled by those well-meaning individuals who do not see the connection between the events of 9-11 and peak oil. The ruling elite have known for over a decade that peak oil was a fact of life. As many readers already know, Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote about oil shortages extensively in his book The Grand Chessboard, published in 1997. In it, he argues that the United States must gain hegemony of Eurasia and the last remaining oil reserves on earth. While Brzezinksi was not part of the Project For A New American Century (PNAC) or an author of Rebuilding America's Defenses, the neocon blueprint for world domination now being carried out by the Bush administration, he has served the ruling elite all his adult life as a member of both Democratic and Republican regimes. We now have overwhelming evidence that the 9-11 attacks were orchestrated by the Bush administration in concert with its chief intelligence asset, Al Qaeda. For the past three years, the 9-11 truth movement has speculated regarding possible motives. Certainly the neocons were motivated by power and, to use Brezezinski's words, "geostrategic hegemony" which would eventually cause nation-states to fold into a one-world government run by corporations. Unquestionably, they sought, as they have achieved in Iraq, endless government contracts for the corporations they float in and out of on their way to and from their beltway positions. But with exquisite foreknowledge of the time-crunch of peak oil, the ruling elite of both political parties needed a grand rationale for expansion into Eurasia and the Middle East. Realizing our frenzied competition with China's 1.3 billion people for the last remaining oil reserves, a contest which may inevitably deteriorate into all-out war with China, the Democrats, as well as neocons, now champion militarism and shamelessly speak of "progressive internationalism" (translation: imperialism) with their Bush-clone candidate recently proclaiming that he would have invaded Iraq even if it had been clear that no weapons of mass destruction existed…. In the face of countries, including our own, being unable to feed, clothe, heat, and provide services for masses of human beings, is it unreasonable to conjecture that laboratory-manufactured virulent infections and other forms of biological warfare will be necessary to reduce population? Do I have an overly active imagination based on science fiction? Perhaps, but as a friend of mine once said, we must stay current with science fiction in order to have some idea of what the Pentagon and the intelligence community are up to. Undoubtedly, two decades ago, the idea of planes crashing into New York skyscrapers and the Pentagon would also have been written off as science fiction. The 9-11 truth movement and the realities of peak oil are inextricably connected. Emphasizing one over the other or criticizing individuals engaged in the cause of either keeps us thinking inside the box and paralyzes us in a fragmented perspective that prevents us from viewing the larger picture. For those seeking the full truth of 9-11, follow the oil.” Carolyn Baker is a professor of U.S. history living in New Mexico
The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World (Hardcover), by Paul Roberts From Publishers Weekly: “All economic activity is rooted in the energy economy, which means a substantial portion of the current world economy is linked to the production and distribution of oil. But what will happen, Roberts asks, when the well starts to run dry? Walking readers through the modern energy economy, he suggests that grim prospect may not be as far off as we'd like to think and points out how political unrest could disrupt the world's oil supply with disastrous results. But that could be the least of our worries; some of Roberts's most persuasive passages describe an
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124 almost inevitable future shaped by global warming, especially as rapidly industrializing countries like China begin to replicate the pollution history of the U.S. Some signs of hope are visible, he believes, especially in Europe, but the stumbling progress of potential alternatives such as hydrogen power or fuel cells is additional cause for concern. And though the current administration's energy policy gets plenty of criticism, Roberts (a regular contributor to Harper's) saves some of his harshest barbs for American consumers, described as "the least energy-conscious people on the planet." If the government won't create stricter fuel efficiency standards, he argues, blame must be placed equally on our eagerness to drive around in gas-guzzling SUVs and on corporate lobbying. Stressing the dire need to act now to create any meaningful long-term effect, this measured snapshot of our oil-dependent economy forces readers to confront unsettling truths without sinking into stridency. This book may very well become for fossil fuels what Fast Food Nation was to food or High and Mighty to SUVs.”
Eating Fossil Fuels: Oil, Food and the Coming Crisis in Agriculture, by Dale Allen Pfeiffer Synopsis: Every calorie of food produced in the U.S. requires ten calories of hydrocarbons. Without oil, the U.S. can only sustain two thirds of its present population and world population should be around two billion. The solution: transition to a sustainable, localised agriculture. Eating Fossil Fuels, Newsarticle by Dale Allen Pfeiffer: “October 3 , 2003, 1200 PDT, (FTW) -- Human beings (like all other animals) draw their energy from the food they eat. Until the last century, all of the food energy available on this planet was derived from the sun through photosynthesis. Either you ate plants or you ate animals that fed on plants, but the energy in your food was ultimately derived from the sun. It would have been absurd to think that we would one day run out of sunshine. No, sunshine was an abundant, renewable resource, and the process of photosynthesis fed all life on this planet. It also set a limit on the amount of food that could be generated at any one time, and therefore placed a limit upon population growth. Solar energy has a limited rate of flow into this planet. To increase your food production, you had to increase the acreage under cultivation, and displace your competitors. There was no other way to increase the amount of energy available for food production. Human population grew by displacing everything else and appropriating more and more of the available solar energy……….”
Books Research Articles Available for Download: Oil: A Bumpy Road Ahead When will Oil Peak? Peak Oil: A Catastrophist Cult and Complex Realities Peak Oil Panic: Is the palent running out of gas? Herold Panelists debate peak oil: Fact or Fiction Oil as a Finite Resource Oil: a bumpy road ahead.(PEAK OIL FORUM) : An article from: World Watch by Kjell Aleklett (Digital - Jan 1, 2006) When will oil peak? Sometime soon petroleum production will begin declining. Can we be prepared?(Supply) : An article from: Energy by Robert L. Hirsch, Roger H. Bezdek, and Robert M. Wendling (Digital - Jan 1, 2005) Peak oil: a catastrophist cult and complex realities.(petroleum industry forecast) : An article from: World Watch by Vaclav Smil (Digital - Jan 1, 2006) Peak oil panic: is the planet running out of gas? If it is, what should the Bush administration do about it?(Cover story) : An article from: Reason by Ronald Bailey (Digital - May 1, 2006) Herold panelists debate peak oil: Fact or fiction?: An article from: Oil & Gas Investor by Leslie Haines (Digital - Nov 30, 2005) Oil As a Finite Resource: When Is Global Production Likely to Peak by James J. MacKenzie (Hardcover - Jul 1996)
Banks / Financial Corporate Bodies: Banks / Financial Corporate Bodies Bank of International Settlements Alan Greenspan, Federal Reserve Deutsche Bank Report The Australian Financial Review Articles on Oil/Energy & Finance International Financial Stock Market Publications
Bank for Iinternational Settlements (BIS): Bank for International Settlements: The 75th Annual General Meeting. AGM 2005 Report Overview or Full Text. President's speech by Nout Wellink, President of the BIS and Chairman of the Board of Directors in English. Activities of the Bank: the year 2004-05 in review delivered by Malcolm Knight, General Manager of the BIS. See also THE TIMES OF LONDON: Bank of International Settlements (BIS) sounds alarm as oil price sets another record, by Gary Duncan, Economics Editor, June 28, 2005:
Alan Greenspan, Former Federal Reserve Bank Chairman: Greenspan Sounds Alarm on Oil Supply, Reuters, Washington, Wednesday, June 7, 2006, with comment from FTW.
Deutsche Bank Report: Energy Prospects After the Petroleum Age, December 2, 2004 The end-of-the-fossil-hydrocarbons scenario is not therefore a doom-and-gloom picture painted by pessimistic end-of-the-world prophets, but a view of scarcity in the coming years and decades that must be taken seriously.
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125 The Australian Financial Review: Staring Down the Barrel of a Crisis, January 2005: The world's oil production may be about to reach its peak, forever. Such apocalyptic prophecies often surface in the middle of the northern hemisphere winter. What is unusual is that this time the doomsday scenario has gained serious credibility among respected analysts and commentators.
Articles on Oil/Energy as a Foundation of Economic Theory &/or the Errors of Economic Theory: Five Fundamental Errors, The Long Version, by Jay Hanson: “Modern economics is nothing more than "Social Darwinism" (the politics -NOT the science) as first revealed by God to the Dominican Friar St. Thomas Aquinas 750 years ago, and then perfected by the Physiocrats 230 years ago. Unfortunately, God didn't bother to reveal the Laws of Thermodynamics to St. Thomas at the same time as he was doing "free markets". But then it's not too surprising considering the fact that God also neglected to mention that the Earth orbited the Sun. Any ONE fundamental error in Neoclassical theory should be sufficient reason to reject conclusions based upon that theory. Here are five fundamental errors in the theory… The sudden -- and surprising -- end of the fossil fuel age will stun everyone - and kill billions. Once the truth is told about gas and oil (it's just a matter of time), your life will change forever. Envision a world where freezing, starving people burn everything combustible -- everything from forests (releasing CO2; destroying topsoil and species); to garbage dumps (releasing dioxins, PCBs, and heavy metals); to people (by waging nuclear, biological, chemical, and conventional war); and you have seen the future. Envision a world utterly destroyed by a lethal education.” The Most Important Thing You Don't Know About "Peak Oil", by Deconsumption, The Party’s Over: Turn out the lights, March 16, 2005: “There's an aspect to the concept of "Peak Oil" which I don't believe is sufficiently grasped by people following the subject. It's the understanding that the most dangerous aspect we face is not really the state of the resource itself--the actual "Peak" dates or depletion rates, or any of the physical realities of oil supply/demand--but rather the reaction in the oil markets upon realization that these issues are no longer even important. For instance, a few days ago I referenced the article GlobalCorp, because I felt Michael C. Ruppert did a fantastic job 'connecting the dots' of world/politcal events occurring over just the past few months. What he showed is that, regardless of whether Peak Oil has any reality to it or not, what is important now is that the powers of the world are absolutely steering the course of the planet by this star. As such, the events now destined to unfold over just the next year or so are acquiring a momentum of their own, setting us on an intractable course of global conflict and warfare. This is the reality, as I see it, of what is happening right now, regardless of when any theoretical "Peak Year" may have been reached. Should the oil markets themselves begin to 'connect these dots', then all our lives are going to be impacted violently and immediately. The commodity traders for various interested firms live solely by anticipating conditions and events, not by debating them and verifying them. The old mantra is, you "buy the rumor, sell the news". This is the reason you'll never see "Peak Oil" covered by a respected media outlet. Because as soon as it is recognized that for all practical purposes the situation is already upon us, then a fast and viscious "resource grab" will be initiated. The price of oil in the markets will begin to rise dramatically. This will initiate a circular hedging / hording mentality in large endusers, governments, and multi-nationals. This will then have a myriad of devastating effects, but all average Joe Consumer is going to notice is that the price at the pump will experience a brief and dramatic blip upward, gas lines will form for a short time at the cornerstations, and then suddenly the corner gas-stations will go dry altogether...perhaps getting a few sporadic deliveries, but more likely simply for good. Gasoline will not be available to individual drivers, as precedence is given to heating oil, critical government and commercial uses, public transportation, transport of food and goods, etc. How the situation unfolds after that you can imagine just as well as I.... If this scenario sounds over-dramatic, keep in mind that what I'm talking about is a dawning recognition of something that many analysts have already come to realize: that the "oil grab" is in fact already on, that it's not a temporary 'bottleneck' or passing 'shock', and that the losers in this game will not survive. A global game of 'blind man's bluff' is underway, with all the players pleading ignorance of the issue for as long as possible so they can get their pieces in place...all the while anxiously watching for the first itchy-trigger finger that's going to set the whole thing off. This is the reason I highlighted Michael Ruppert's last article. I believe that just as he is stating, the debate over "Peak Oil" itself is already over. It no longer matters whether it is proven or disproven, because there isn't time left to do either. Events in the world are revealing to us the only truth that matters: that a desperate resource war is emergent, one that will not be won by trade sanctions, blustering, or corporate bargaining. This is the only issue which should now be under scrutiny by those who strive to stay "ahead of the curve". No one questions why the U.S. is occupying the Middle-East: the Administration is there for the oil. But the true gravity of the situation is only scarcely beginning to come to light. The 'markets' have already accepted the long-term "bull market" in oil prices due to increasing demand. What they don't accept yet (or understand) is the mounting "supply" problem. When this begins to dawn on them, and it could absolutely happen as quickly as within the next few months, then seemingly overnight the world will start to come apart at the seams. Keep in mind that we're not talking about the acceptance of oil depletion among the 'general public'; the individuals comprising 'the oil markets' are people who follow the industry intimately, and who know all the latest news and rumors. They know about (quote/unquote) "Peak Oil". What they have not quite done is to connect all the dots.... The world powers are positioning themselves for war. The war is over who can take the most oil. If you don't recognize this, then I urge you to read over Ruppert's article and get a sense for the types of events and stories which form the "dots" he has been connecting. Then begin paying close attention to world news (not "politics", but real events). Begin to discern what the various strategic actions being taken by the countries of the world indicate. Perhaps I am wrong. Maybe I've misread the situation. Verify everything for yourself. I also want to very sincerely relate that I am not saying any of this to stir up fear or anxiety in anyone. In truth, nothing about the future can be known with certainty. What I am trying to do is to communicate my own recognition that the time for action is now upon us. We can no longer debate who's right and who's wrong. We can no longer hope for what the next election might bring. We can't assume that somehow a 'gradual transition' will be effected, because it is never going to happen that way. Certainly there will be efforts among the global powers to calm the markets in various ways...perhaps some of these will ameliorate matters. But ultimately, in our own lives, just as on the world stage, whoever does not act now will soon find they have already lost the game.”
International Financial Stock Market Publications: See US & International Media: International Financial Stock Market Publications
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126
Oil Companies Oil Companies Exxon Mobil Chevron Royal Dutch Shell MOL
Exxon Mobil Exxon Mobil Corporation, one of the world's largest publicly owned petroleum companies, is the most forthright of the major oil companies having had the courage and honesty to quietly publish the declining discovery trend, based on sound industry data with reserve revisions properly backdated. Furthermore, the company is running page-size advertisements in European papers stressing the immense challenges to be faced in meeting future energy demand, hinting that the challenges might not be met despite its considerable expertise. Their report, “The Outlook for Energy: A 2030 View”, forecasts a peak in oil production in just five years
Chevron Chevron recently joined Exxon Mobil’s campaign by publishing an advertisement in national newspapers stating that the 'Era of Easy Oil is Over' (see here to view full ad). Or go to “Will You Join Us’ Ad, where they say “One thing is clear: The era of easy oil is over’ and in their print documentation they say, “It took us 125 years to use the first trillion barrels of oil, we’ll use the next trillion in 30.’
Royal Dutch Shell Financial Times: “Vision for Meeting Energy Needs Beyond Oil,”by Royal Dutch Shell’s Chief Executive Jeroen Van Der Veer, who said, “My view is that ‘easy’ oil has probably passed its peak.”
MOL Ray Leonard, USA & Hungary: Senior Vice President for International Exploration and Production of MOL, the Hungarian Oil and Gas Company, speaker on Peak Oil at ASPO’s 2005 ASPO conference. See ASPO 2005 Conference for his full bio.
Automotive Companies: Automotive Companies Ford Motor Company Volvo Motor Company
Ford Motor Company Executive Vice President Mark Fields, in his keynote address in October, 2005 at the Society of Automotive Engineers’ “Global Leadership Conference at the Greenbrier,” noted the seven most serious challenges to his industry, one of which was that “oil production is peaking.” [Richard Heinberg]
Volvo motor company Volvo Motor Company has for several years acknowledged in its company literature, Future Fuels Report, that a global oil production peak is likely by 2015. [Richard Heinberg]
911: Iraq: 911/ Iraq Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity Other 911 Information
Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS): Toronto STAR: CIA SAYS NO: U.S. INTELLIGENCE OFFICERS SAY BUSH OUT OF HIS MIND ON IRAQ WAR, by Ray McGovern, 13 Feb, 2003 Gov.Exec.com: Intelligence Questions, by Peter H. Stone, National Journal, June 10, 2003 ParaPolitics.com: 911 Whistleblowers: Former Snr. CIA Analyst Ray McGovern on 911 & Bush, 05 June 2005 Pacifica Radio Peacewatch: Ray McGovern of Veterans Intelligence Professionals for Sanity Analyzes Private Conversation Between Powell and Straw Regarding Iraq's WMDs IslamOnline: Spotlight on Iraq & Beyond: The American Side: The Moment of Lies Has Arrived, by Hwaa Irfan, March 2003. Counterpunch.com: Washington Lied: An Interview with Ray McGovern, by Marc Pritzke, June 23, 2003. South Asia Analysis Group: CIA: Sinned Against or Sinning?, by B. Raman, Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, 26 May 2003 Proof Bush Fixed the Facts: “The Intelligence and facts are being fixed around the policy”, by Ray McGovern, May 4, 2005, TomPaine.com (a project of the Institute for America’s Future): "Fresh back in London from consultations in Washington, Dearlove briefed Prime Minister Blair and his top national security officials on July 23, 2002, on the Bush administration's plans to make war
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127 on Iraq…. In emotionless English, Dearlove (then Head of Britain’s CIA equivalent, MI6) tells Blair and the others that President Bush has decided to remove Saddam Hussein by launching a war that is to be "justified by the conjunction of terrorism and weapons of mass destruction." Period. What about the intelligence? Dearlove adds matter-of-factly, "The intelligence and facts are being fixed around the policy." At this point, Foreign Secretary Jack Straw confirms that Bush has decided on war, but notes that stitching together justification would be a challenge, since "the case was thin." Straw noted that Saddam was not threatening his neighbors and his WMD capability was less than that of Libya, North Korea or Iran…….. The discussion at 10 Downing St. on July 23, 2002 calls to mind the first meeting of George W. Bush's National Security Council (NSC) on Jan. 30, 2001, at which the president made it clear that toppling Saddam Hussein sat atop his to-do list, according to then-Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neil, who was there. O'Neil was taken aback that there was no discussion of why it was necessary to "take out" Saddam. Rather, after CIA Director George Tenet showed a grainy photo of a building in Iraq that he said might be involved in producing chemical or biological agents, the discussion proceeded immediately to which Iraqi targets might be best to bomb. Again, neither O'Neil nor the other participants asked the obvious questions. Another NSC meeting two days later included planning for dividing up Iraq's oil wealth. Proof Bush Deceived America, by Ray McGovern, January 13, 2006, TomPaine.com AfterDowningStreet: Full chapter excerpt of McGovern’s book NEO-CONNED Rude Questions and the Immutable Object: All Mosquitoes, No Swamp...No Elephants Either, by Ray McGovern, December 7, 2004, presenting his views after attending the conference on "Al Qaeda 2.0: Transnational Terrorism After 9/11," sponsored by the New America Foundation and the New York University Center on Law & Security: Conclusion reached by a panel of the US Defense Science Board, in an unclassified study on “Strategic Communication” completed September 23, 2004: “"Muslims do not 'hate our freedom,' but rather, they hate our policies. The overwhelming majority voice their objections to what they see as one-sided support in favor of Israel and against Palestinian rights, and the longstanding, even increasing support for what Muslims collectively see as tyrannies, most notably Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Pakistan, and the Gulf States. Thus, when American public diplomacy talks about bringing democracy to Islamic societies, this is seen as no more than self-serving hypocrisy.""...Nor can the most carefully crafted messages, themes, and words persuade when the messenger lacks credibility."….. There was some wincing and squirming in the audience, but in the end it was left to aptly named Marc Sageman, a forensic psychiatrist, former CIA case officer, and author of the book Understanding Terror Networks (published earlier this year), to state the obvious on Israel and Iraq. Putting it even more bluntly that the Defense Science Board panel, he asserted: "We are seen as a hypocritical bully in the Middle East and we have to stop!"
Other 911 Information: The (911) Story we Hear on the News and Read in the Papers is simply not Believable, by Stan Goff, Retired US Special Forces Master Sergeant: “So the consistent currents in this [Bush] cabinet are petroleum, the former Soviet Union, and the military. Based on the record of Daddy Bush, in all his guises, and the general trajectory of US foreign policy as far back as the Carter Administration, I feel I can reasonably conclude that Middle Eastern and South Asian fossil fuels are one of their major preoccupations. Not just because this klavern has some very direct financial interests in fossil fuel, but because they surely know that worldwide oil production is peaking as we speak, and will soon begin a permanent and precipitous decline that will completely change the character of civilization as we know it within 20 years. Even the left seems to be in deep denial about this, but the math is available. And, no, alternative energies and energy technologies will not save us. All the alternatives in the world can not begin to provide more than a tiny fraction of the energy base now provided by oil. This makes it more than a resource, and the drive to control what's left more than an economic competition. Operation 911: NO SUICIDE PILOTS, by Carol A. Valentine, Curator, Waco Holocaust Electronic Museum, October 6, 2001; VOLTAIRE.NET: The Big Lie: September 11th : 42 percent of US citizens doubtful about official version, BYU Physics Prof Finds Thermate in WTC Physical Samples, Building Collapses an Inside Job, author: Jacob Hamblin, Portland IndyMedia, 17 June 2006; Muslims Suspend the Laws of Physics, by J McMichael; Scientific Analysis Proves Towers Brought Down By Incendiaries: Steven Jones' analysis on WTC steel about to be released.
US & International Media: US & International Media Intenational Financial Stock Market Publications International Political, News Publications
International Financial Stock Market Publications: 321 ENERGY.COM: Control all 'tyrannical' world oil chokepoints? A Peek Behind Bush II's 'War on Tyranny', William Engdahl, February 14, 2005: “The military infrastructure for dealing with such tyrant states seems to be shaping up as well. In the January 24 New Yorker magazine, veteran journalist Seymour Hersh cited Pentagon and CIA sources to claim that the position of Rumsfeld and the warhawks is even stronger today than before the Iraq war. Hersh reported that Bush signed an Executive Order last year, without fanfare, placing major CIA covert operations and strategic analysis into the hands of the Pentagon, sidestepping any Congressional oversight. He adds that plans for the widening of the War on Terror under Rumsfeld were also agreed upon in the Administration well before the election. The Washington Post confirmed Hersh's allegation, reporting that Rumsfeld's Pentagon had created, by Presidential Order, and bypassing Congress, a new Strategic Support Branch, which co-opts traditional clandestine and other functions of the CIA. According to a report by US Army Col.(ret.) Dan Smith, in Foreign Policy in Focus last November, the new SSB unit includes the elite military special SEAL Team Six, Delta Force Army squadrons and potentially, a paramilitary army of 50,000 available for 'splendid little wars' outside Congressional purview. The list of emerging targets in a new War on Tyranny is clearly fluid, provisional, and adaptable as developments change. It is clear that a breathtaking array of future military and economic offensives is in the works at the highest policy levels to transform the world. A world oil price of $150 a barrel or more in the next few years would be joined by chokepoint control of the supply by one power if Washington has its way.” BLOOMBERG: China, India Seek to Avert Bidding War for Kazakh Oil, June 6 2006, and at FTW;
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128 BUSINESS WEEK: A Bidding Frenzy for Angola's Oil. Record bids for drilling rights demonstrate the big bets oil companies are making to secure reserves of black gold, by Stanley Reed, June 7, 2006, with comment from FTW; CCNMONEY.COM: A brave new oily world: The current spike isn't like the oil shocks of yesterday ... tight supply is here to stay, by Kathleen Hays, March 21, 2005; DOW JONES MARKETWATCH: ’$6 to $7 Gasoline May Be Coming this Summer', 4 April 2006. THE ECONOMIST: The End of the Oil Age: Ways to Break the Tyranny of Oil Are Coming Into View. Governments Need to Promote Them, 23 October 2003; THE ECONOMIST: The Future of Energy: The End of the Oil Age: Ways to break the tyranny of oil are coming into view. Governments need to promote them, Oct 23, 2003; FINANCIAL TIMES: Kissinger warns of energy conflict, by Caroline Daniel in Washington, June 2 2005: “Henry Kissinger, former US secretary of state, yesterday warned that the global battle for control of energy resources could become the modern equivalent of the 19th century "great game" - the conflict between the UK and Tsarist Russia for supremacy in central Asia.” FINANCIAL TIMES: ’Russian Oil Production is Falling & expected to decrease rapidly over the next 4 years', 11 April 2006; FINANCIAL TIMES: “Vision for Meeting Energy Needs Beyond Oil” by Royal Dutch Shell’s Chief Executive Jeroen Van Der Veer, who said, “My view is that ‘easy’ oil has probably passed its peak.” FORTUNE MAGAZINE: Energy Prophet of Doom, December 26, 2005, by Oliver Ryan. FREE MARKET NEWS NETWORK: Peak Oil and Peak Gold, April 25, 2006, by Roland Watson, FMNN Peak Energy Strategist; HINDU TIMES BUSINESS LINE: "Peaked Over Crude Oil", by Shanmuganathan N, Satish Kumar, November 4, 2005 HINDU TIMES BUSINESS LINE: Predicting the Oil Peak, by Shanmuganathan N. Satish Kumar, June 20, 2006: “When we first wrote about the impending $200 a barrel scenario — to happen some time between 2007 and 2009, as we had stated in "Peaked Over Crude Oil" (Business Line, November 4, 2005) — there were few serious takers. The thought was dismissed outright with reasons ranging from the Canadian tar sands and US shale oil to technology advancements and demand destruction. Now that we have set a new historical high of $75, this is probably a good time to review what we had written earlier and explain why $200 in the near future is a certainty.” MONEY & MARKETS: Investing for Peak Oil, May 3, 2006; PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS WATCH: The End of Cheap Oil: What Giant Sucking Sound, by Michael Vickerman, July 6, 2004 RESOURCE INVESTOR: “Famed Oil Tycoon Sounds Off on Peak Oil” by Michael DesLauriers, 23 June, 2005, RESOURCE INVESTOR: “Oil Forecasting Legend Discusses Peak Oil, Share Prices,” by Michael DesLauriers, 19 October, 2005 RESOURCE INVESTOR: International Energy Agency Confronts Peak Oil, by Adam Porter, 03 October 2005: “The basic counter thrust of the IEA’s argument [to Peak Oil] is that new technologies and increased investment can overcome any production inflection. But the level of investment that requires is truly astronomical. Repeating a figure they first used in the IEA World Energy Outlook report they estimate that the total necessary investment cost “for worldwide upstream operations and transport [of oil]” by 2030 will amount to “$5 trillion.” That works out at roughly $564.5 million dollars a day, between now and 1 January 2030.” THE STREET.COM: Buffett Bets on Oil, by Nat Worden, May 15, 2006; WALLS STREET JOURNAL: Soaring Global Demand for Oil Strains Production Capacity, 22 March 2004;
International Political, News, etc. Media Publications: ABC NEWS.COM: Are we running out of Oil? Scientist warns of Looming Crisis, 11 February 2004; AL JAZEERA.NET: US report acknowledges Peak Oil Threat, by Adam Porter, France, 10 Mar 2005 (For excerpts see US Dept. of Energy). AL JAZEERA.NET: "Will oil strike $380 a barrel by 2015?" by Adam Porter, 21 April 2005 ALTERNATIVE PRESS REVIEW: Desperado Days, by Zbignew Zingh, Dec 20, 2004: “Only they see a meaner time that lies ahead, without plentiful, cheap energy to fuel endlessly-expanding capitalism; a feudal, medieval world of harsher climates and hungry, thirsty people, and desperation and disease. And they intend to have, by hook or by crook, what they need to survive those times. The intention of this article was not to depress people, though it certainly will not cheer you up. One purpose was to understand what is happening, for in knowledge lies strength and the path to action. Another purpose was to try to develop a coherent theory, an explanation for why the Bush Administration seems to be acting like there is no tomorrow. Could it be because they believe they have no tomorrow? BBC: What to use when the Oil Runs Out - BBC, April 22, 2004; BBC: Is the world's oil running out fast?, by Adam Porter at the Peak Oil conference in Berlin, BBC News UK, 7 June 2004: “"Consumer countries need to be able to audit fields, but at the same time 'flat earth' economists who believe in endless growth need to change their ideas." And Dr Campbell has a dire warning: "If the real figures were to come out there would be panic on the stock markets, in the end that would suit no one."” BBC: If… The Oil Runs Out, BBC2, May 30, 2006; BULLETIN OF ATOMIC SCIENTISTS: Oil: Caveat empty, by Alfred J. Cavallo, May/June 2005; CNN: World Oil and Gas Running Out - CNN, 02 October 2003; COUNTERPUNCH: Saddam, Oil and Empire: Supply versus Demand, by Larry Everest, (An excerpt from Larry Everest's new book Oil, Power and Empire.), December 13, 2003. DALLAS MORNING NEWS: Has Oil Peaked?: Yes. The world has used half its reserves and is headed for shortages, by Jeffrey J. Brown, June 11, 2006; DISSIDENT VOICE: The Economic Tsunami: Sooner Than You Think, by Mike Whitney, April 11, 2005: “a recent report indicates that two-thirds of the world’s 65 central banks have already “begun to move from dollars to euros.” The Bush plan to savage the dollar has been telegraphed around the world and, as the New York Times says, “the greenback has nowhere to go but down.” There’s only one thing that the administration can do to ensure that energy dealers keep trading in dollars…control the flow of oil. That means
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129 that an attack on Iran is nearly a certainty…. The towering national debt coupled with the staggering trade deficits have put the nation on a precipice and a seismic shift in the fortunes of middle-class Americans is looking more likely all the time. The New York Times summarized the country’s prospects like this: “The economic repercussions could unfold gradually, resulting in a long, slow decline in living standards. Or there could be a quick unravelinga, with the hallmarks of an uncontrolled fiscal crisis.”” ELECTRIC VEHICLE WORLD: The Global Nutcracker Called Peak Oil - 20 February 2005, by Jan Lundberg; ENERGY BULLETIN: Implications of Fossil Fuel Dependence for the Food System, by Jay Tomczak, Tompkins Country Relocalization Project, December 12, 2005; ENERGY BULLETIN: “US Army: Peak Oil and the Army’s Future,” by Adam Fenderson and Bart Anderson, 13 March, 2006, that a paper prepared for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers titled “Energy Trends and Implications for U.S. Army Installations” (Sept., 2005) includes the following tidbit: The supply of oil will remain fairly stable in the very near term, but oil prices will steadily increase as world production approaches its peak. The doubling of oil prices in the past couple of years is not an anomaly, but a picture of the future. Peak oil is at hand. . . ENERGY BULLETIN: Pentagon and Peak Oil: A Military Literature Review, by Sohbet Karbuz, 13 July 2006 ENERGY BULLETIN: Facing the Limits to Growth, by Donella H. Meadows and Jorgen Randers, 17 June 2004 (Alternet) FALLS CHURCH NEWS PRESS: Tom Whipple (a retired 20+ year CIA intelligence analyst with the Falls Church News Press, has authored): Peak Oil: Powerdown or Collapse, 11 May 2006; FALLS CHURCH NEWS PRESS: The Peak Oil Crisis: Ethanol and Peak Food, by Tom Whipple, May 25, 2006; FALLS CHURCH NEWS PRESS: The Peak Oil Crisis: One Year in Review, by Tom Whipple, June 9, 2006; FALLS CHURCH NEWS PRESS: The Peak Oil Crisis; Recognizing the Peak, by Tom Whipple, 16 June 2006, FISHING FACTS: Our Petroleum Predicament: A Special Editorial Feature by George Pazik, November 1976 FOREIGN POLICY IN FOCUS: US procuring the World's Oil,January 2004; FOX NEWS: Experts: Global Oil Production May Peak Soon, by Ker Than, April 28, 2006: FROM THE WILDERNESS: Saudi Arabia, West Africa -- Next Stops in the Infinite War for Oil, by Michael C. Ruppert: “Clearly West Africa is vital to the Empire. The Times of London acknowledged this in a July 29, 2002, story headlined, "U.S. Presses Africa to turn on the tap of crude oil." Quoting Walter Kansteiner, U.S. Under Secretary of State for African Affairs, the Times reported, "African oil is of national strategic interest to us, and it will increase and become more important as we go forward." FROM THE WILDERNESS: Exclusive Interview: Behind the Blackout: An Energy Investment Banker and Bush Energy Advisor Gives Unexpected Answers on the Northeast Power Grid, Peak Oil and Gas, and Much More, August 21, 2003 FROM THE WILDERNESS: Will the US Re-Open the Draft? By Stan Goff, FTW, 27 February 2004: “Control of the world's peaking energy supply is absolutely essential for the U.S. state to maintain its economic arm-lock on China and Europe to enforce their continued complicity in this international extortion racket. The Bush administration has not the slightest intention of ever leaving Iraq. Given that this is the prime directive, Donald Rumsfeld's accounting and the political risks associated with Selective Service may both have to be overlooked, and in the not-too-distant future. A little history is in order to show that George W. Bush's administration is not the first, nor will it be the last, to decide in advance what imperial adventure upon which it wants to embark, then go to the working class well for our young people to provide the sweat and blood. In the end, it's always about oil. Until people figure that out, they'll continue, as Sydney Shanberg said when Bush the Elder was dropping bombs on Iraqis, to be “the ultimate innocents. We are forever desperate to believe that this time the government is telling us the truth." Rumsfeld should add to his list of Rumsfeld's Rules, “You can't have your cake and eat it too.” Dick Cheney is occasionally rolled out to speak, and when he does he often says the damndest things. On January 14th, when speaking to the Los Angeles World Affairs Council, he described a decades-long war in which there might be hundreds of thousands of American casualties. Then they re-medicated him and took him back home.” FROM THE WILDERNESS: The Beginning of the Oil End Game featuring original FTW maps: Major Powers Jockey for Position and Risk All-Out War Before the 2007-8 Oil Cliff. Maps Reveal Rapid Global Realignment/Competition by Michael C. Ruppert, January 25, 2005. FROM THE WILDERNESS: $380 Oil? Banks (Goldman Sachs Report, Ixis-CIB report) Talk Oil Depletion, by Michael Kane. GLOBAL PUBLIC MEDIA: Australian Politician Goes on Record about Peak Oil and Gas, March 9, 2005; INDEPENDENCE JOURNAL: The Long Fingers of Petroleum, by Oilman, 15 Mar 2005. INTERPRESS NEWS AGENCY: Adios Cheap Oil - April 27, 2004; JANE’S INTELLIGENCE: World Oil Crisis Looms, 21 April 2004; JIJI PRESS: Japan to Stockpile Gasoline, Other Oil Products, Friday, May 19, 2006; KNIGHT RIDDER: China's Demand for Foreign Oil Rises at Breakneck Pace, 26 January 2004; LEGAL TIMES: Peak Oil Is Coming, and We Must Prepare: A world of steadily declining oil resources is a challenge to all, by Roscoe G. Bartlett, Washington, June 12, 2006; LONDON TELEGRAPH: Put that light out! Now Prescott plans to send in the 'energy police' to make us go green, by Melissa Kite, Deputy Political Editor, 18 Sep 2005: “'Energy wardens' will police homes and offices to ensure that they do not waste gas and electricity under a radical plan being considered by John Prescott…” LONDON TELEGRAPH: Fuel crisis might shut industry, admits minister, By Roya Nikkhah and Melissa Kite, 23 Oct 2005 MAPLELEAFWEB: Pressures Driving Down the US Dollar: The Rise of the Euro. MIT TECHNOLOGY REVIEW: The End of Oil?: There are good signs that worldwide oil production is declining. Best hold on tight, by Mark Williams, February 2005; MOSCOW TIMES: G7: Oil Price Threatens World Economy - Moscow Times, April 26, 2004; MOTHER JONES: The Thirty Year Itch, March/April 2003: “But while the companies hope to cash in on an American-controlled Iraq, the push to remove Saddam Hussein hasn't been driven by oil executives, many of whom are worried about the consequences of war. Nor are Vice President Cheney and President Bush, both former oilmen, looking at the Gulf simply for the profits that can be earned there. The administration is thinking bigger, much bigger, than that. "Controlling Iraq is about oil as power, rather than oil as fuel," says Michael Klare, professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College and author of Resource Wars. "Control over the Persian Gulf translates into control over Europe, Japan, and China. It's having our hand on the spigot…. "It's the Kissinger plan,"
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
130 says James Akins, a former U.S. diplomat. "I thought it had been killed, but it's back." Akins learned a hard lesson about the politics of oil when he served as a U.S. envoy in Kuwait and Iraq, and ultimately as ambassador to Saudi Arabia during the oil crisis of 1973 and '74. In 1975, while Akins was ambassador in Saudi Arabia, an article headlined "Seizing Arab Oil" appeared in Harper's. The author, who used the pseudonym Miles Ignotus, was identified as "a Washington-based professor and defense consultant with intimate links to high-level U.S. policymakers." The article outlined, as Akins puts it, "how we could solve all our economic and political problems by taking over the Arab oil fields [and] bringing in Texans and Oklahomans to operate them." Simultaneously, a rash of similar stories appeared in other magazines and newspapers. "I knew that it had to have been the result of a deep background briefing," Akins says. "You don't have eight people coming up with the same screwy idea at the same time, independently. "Then I made a fatal mistake," Akins continues. "I said on television that anyone who would propose that is either a madman, a criminal, or an agent of the Soviet Union." Soon afterward, he says, he learned that the background briefing had been conducted by his boss, thenSecretary of State Henry Kissinger. Akins was fired later that year. "” NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC: The End of Cheap Oil – Tim Appenzeller, (Cover Story), June 2004; NATIONAL PUBLIC RADIO: Experts Ponder Peak of Global Oil Production, NPR (National Public Radio); NEWSWEEK: Crude Awakening: A prominent physicist warns in a new book that the world is running out of oil and we're not doing anything to stave off the coming crisis, NEW YORK POST: Paulson’s Other Job as Wall St. Plunge Protector, by John Crudele, June 8, 2006, and at FTW; NEW YORK TIMES: Debate Rages on Oil Output by Saudis in Future, 25 February 2004; NEW YORK TIMES: Top oil groups fail to recoup exploration costs, by James Boxell, 9 October 2004 (Energy Bulletin) NEW YORK TIMES: The End of Oil, by Robert Semple, Jr, Associate Editor of the Editorial Page for the Times since 1998, 1 March, 2006: “The concept of peak oil has not been widely written about. But people are talking about it now. It deserves a careful look— largely because it is almost certainly correct.” PETRODOLLARWARFARE: PetroDollar Warfare: Dollars, Euros and the Upcoming Iranian Oil Bourse, by William Clark, August 8, 2005: “This notion that the United States is getting ready to attack Iran is simply ridiculous...Having said that, all options are on the table.” – President George W. Bush, February 2005: “Contemporary warfare has traditionally involved underlying conflicts regarding economics and resources. Today these intertwined conflicts also involve international currencies, and thus increased complexity. Current geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran extend beyond the publicly stated concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear intentions, and likely include a proposed Iranian “petroeuro” system for oil trade. Similar to the Iraq war, military operations against Iran relate to the macroeconomics of ‘petrodollar recycling’ and the unpublicized but real challenge to U.S. dollar supremacy from the euro as an alternative oil transaction currency. It is now obvious the invasion of Iraq had less to do with any threat from Saddam’s long-gone WMD program and certainly less to do to do with fighting International terrorism than it has to do with gaining strategic control over Iraq’s hydrocarbon reserves and in doing so maintain the U.S. dollar as the monopoly currency for the critical international oil market. Throughout 2004 information provided by former administration insiders revealed the Bush/Cheney administration entered into office with the intention of toppling Saddam Hussein.[1][2] Candidly stated, ‘Operation Iraqi Freedom’ was a war designed to install a pro-U.S. government in Iraq, establish multiple U.S military bases before the onset of global Peak Oil, and to reconvert Iraq back to petrodollars while hoping to thwart further OPEC momentum towards the euro as an alternative oil transaction…” RENEWABLE ENERGYACESS.COM: National Security to Lead Renewable Energy Deployment: U.S. Energy Independence Goals Propel Renewable Energy to Next Phase, by Jesse Broehl, Editor, RenewableEnergyAccess.com, 14 December 2004. See also testimony of speaker R. James Woolsey, former Director of Central Intelligence at CIA REUTERS: Greenspan Sounds Alarm on Oil Supply, Reuters, June 7, 2006; RIA NOVOSTI: Russian Hydrocarbon export growth to decline in 2007-10 - Minister Gref, Moscow, Thursday, June 8, 2006; SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN: The End of Cheap Oil, 1998 SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE: Fossil-fuel Dependency: Do Oil Reserves Foretell Bleak Future?, 02 April 2004; SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE: ChevronTexaco's CEO banking on peak oil situation, by David Lazarus, April 8, 2005; SCHNEWS.CO.UK: Wake Up, It’s Yer End of the World: Apeakolypse Now, 27 May 2005: “Peak Oil is the greatest story never told. Even though Peak Oil is the central fact driving the wars and economic crises of our time, it is seldom mentioned in the mainstream corporate news. Peak Oil (also known as the Big Rollover or the Long Emergency) is when demand for oil outstrips supply because the halfway point of the planet’s oil deposits has been passed. ‘Halfway’ is a misleading word in this context. Most of the oil that’s still left in the ground will be staying there, because it takes more oil energy to get it out of the ground than it yields. SUNDAY HERALD: The West’s Battle for Oil, by Neil McKay, 06 October 2002: “Strategic Energy Policy Challenges For The 21st Century describes how America is facing the biggest energy crisis in its history. It targets Saddam as a threat to American interests because of his control of Iraqi oilfields and recommends the use of 'military intervention' as a means to fix the US energy crisis. The report is linked to a veritable who's who of US hawks, oilmen and corporate bigwigs. It was commissioned by James Baker, the former US Secretary of State under George Bush Snr, and submitted to Vice-President Dick Cheney in April 2001 -- a full five months before September 11. Yet it advocates a policy of using military force against an enemy such as Iraq to secure US access to, and control of, Middle Eastern oil fields….. The document also points out that 'the United States remains a prisoner of its energy dilemma', and that one of the 'consequences' of this is a 'need for military intervention'. At the heart of the decision to target Iraq over oil lies dire mismanagement of the US energy policy over decades by consecutive administrations. The report refers to the huge power cuts that have affected California in recent years and warns of 'more Californias' ahead. It says the 'central dilemma' for the US administration is that 'the American people continue to demand plentiful and cheap energy without sacrifice or inconvenience'. With the 'energy sector in critical condition, a crisis could erupt at any time [which] could have potentially enormous impact on the US ... and would affect US national security and foreign policy in dramatic ways.'” The main cause of a crisis, according to the document's authors, is 'Middle East tension', which means the 'chances are greater than at any point in the last two decades of an oil supply disruption'. The report says the US will never be 'energy independent' and is becoming too reliant on foreign powers supplying it with oil and gas. The response is to put oil at the heart of the administration -- 'a reassessment of the role of energy in American foreign policy'. SUNDAY TIMES (UK): Waiting for the lights to go out, by Bryan Appleyard, Magazine, October 16, 2005: “We've taken the past 200 years of prosperity for granted. Humanity's progress is stalling, we are facing a new era of decay, and nobody is clever enough to fix
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
131 it. Is the future really that black? The greatest getting-and-spending spree in the history of the world is about to end. The 200year boom that gave citizens of the industrial world levels of wealth, health and longevity beyond anything previously known to humanity is threatened on every side. Oil is running out; the climate is changing at a potentially catastrophic rate; wars over scarce resources are brewing; finally, most shocking of all, we don't seem to be having enough ideas about how to fix any of these things.” SYDNEY MORNING HERALD (AUS): Oil wars Pentagon's policy since 1999, By Ritt Goldstein, May 20 2003: “A top-level United States policy document has emerged that explicitly confirms the Defence Department's readiness to fight an oil war. According to the report, Strategic Assessment 1999, prepared for the US Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Secretary of Defence, "energy and resource issues will continue to shape international security". Oil conflicts over production facilities and transport routes, particularly in the Persian Gulf and Caspian regions, are specifically envisaged. Although the policy does not forecast imminent US military conflict, it vividly highlights how the highest levels of the US Defence community accepted the waging of an oil war as a legitimate military option…. Strategic Assessment also forecasts that if an oil "problem" arises, "US forces might be used to ensure adequate supplies". The authors warn that if the great powers return to the 19th century approach of securing resources, of conquering resource suppliers, the world economy will suffer and world politics will become more tense.” TIME: The Future of Energy: Peak oil related articles: How to Kick the Oil Habit, How to Save $$$ Now, It's the End of Oil / Oil Is Here to Stay, How Green Can We Get?, 7 Cool New Ideas, October 2005; THE TIMES OF LONDON: Bank of International Settlements (BIS) sounds alarm as oil price sets another record, by Gary Duncan, Economics Editor, June 28, 2005: “THE ECONOMIC fallout from soaring oil prices may be more severe than many expect, the Bank for International Settlements said yesterday as the cost of crude leapt to record levels above $60 a barrel. As financial markets worldwide were jolted by the further jump in oil prices, the BIS, known as the central bankers’ central bank, sounded a warning over potential repercussions for global growth.” THE TIMES OF LONDON: World 'Cannot Meet Oil Demand', 8 April, 2006; TOMDISPATCH.COM: Tomgram: Michael Klare on oil wars and the American military, a Project of the Nation Institute, TomDispatch.com: Oil Wars Transforming the American Military into a Global Oil-Protection Service, by Michael T. Klare. Michael T. Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College. This article is based on his new book, Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America's Growing Petroleum Dependency (Metropolitan / Henry Holt): “This, then, is the future of U.S. military involvement abroad. While anti-terrorism and traditional national security rhetoric will be employed to explain risky deployments abroad, a growing number of American soldiers and sailors will be committed to the protection of overseas oil fields, pipeline, refineries, and tanker routes. And because these facilities are likely to come under increasing attack from guerrillas and terrorists, the risk to American lives will grow accordingly. Inevitably, we will pay a higher price in blood for every additional gallon of oil we obtain from abroad.” TOMDISPATCH.COM: Oil, Geopolitics, and the Coming War with Iran, by Michael T. Klare, Published on Monday, April 11, 2005 by TomDispatch.com: “Having said this, let me proceed to an assessment of Iran's future energy potential. According to the most recent tally by Oil and Gas Journal, Iran houses the second-largest pool of untapped petroleum in the world, an estimated 125.8 billion barrels. Only Saudi Arabia, with an estimated 260 billion barrels, possesses more; Iraq, the third in line, has an estimated 115 billion barrels. With this much oil -- about one-tenth of the world's estimated total supply -- Iran is certain to play a key role in the global energy equation, no matter what else occurs. It is not, however, just sheer quantity that matters in Iran's case; no less important is its future productive capacity…. And it is not just oil that Iran possesses in great abundance, but also natural gas. According to Oil and Gas Journal, Iran has an estimated 940 trillion cubic feet of gas, or approximately 16% of total world reserves. (Only Russia, with 1,680 trillion cubic feet, has a larger supply.) As it takes approximately 6,000 cubic feet of gas to equal the energy content of 1 barrel of oil, Iran's gas reserves represent the equivalent of about 155 billion barrels of oil. What all this means is that Iran will play a critical role in the world's future energy equation. That the Bush administration seeks to foster regime change in Iran is not in any doubt. The very fact that Iran was included with Saddam's Iraq and Kim Jong Il's North Korea in the "Axis of Evil" in the President's 2002 State of the Union Address was an unmistakable indicator of this.” TOMPAINE.COM: The Suburban Fantasy, by Howard Kunstler, May 26, 2006: “People who refuse to negotiate with the circumstances that the world throws at them automatically get assigned a new negotiating partner: reality. Reality then requires you to change your behavior, whether you like it or not. With global oil production peaking, we are now subject to rising oil prices, as markets are forced to contend with allocating a resource heading in the direction of scarcity. Oil prices are only likely to go higher— though there is apt to be a ratcheting effect as high oil prices depress economic activity and thus dampen demand for oil which will depress prices leading to increased consumption which will then kick prices back up, and so on. The prospects for more geopolitical friction over oil also self-evidently increase, as industrial nations desperately maneuver for supplies. Mainly though, the danger lies in the resulting instability of the super-sized complex systems that we depend on daily. We simply cannot face the fact that time has run out—that our lease is expiring—for the easy-motoring utopia. But we must. We have to live differently. We’re going to have to reinhabit and reconstruct our civic places—especially our small towns—and we’re going to have to use the remaining rural places for growing food locally, wherever possible. Our big cities will probably contract, while they densify at their centers and along their waterfronts. Our suburbs will enter a shocking state of economic and practical failure. We cannot imagine this scenario because we have invested so much of our collective wealth the past 50 years in the infrastructure for a way of life that simply has no future. We’d better start paying attention to the signals that reality is sending or we will be living in a very violent, impoverished and demoralized nation…….The fact that we are not even talking about such solutions shows how unserious we are.” TORONTO STAR: Oil War: 23 Years in the Making, Published on Sunday, March 9, 2003: ” But the long-term goal, say big-picture analysts, has been in the works for far more than the 23 years since former U.S. president Jimmy Carter linked American security — "the vital interests of the United States'' — to the Persian Gulf and its oil, and threatened military intervention. This war, say analysts, is about power and oil. It's about control of the Gulf states by means of strategic Iraq and, by extension, a final post-Cold War shakeout to give the U.S. more economic clout over China and Russia by controlling the oil spigot. This is the moment, Thomas Barnett, from the U.S. Naval War College, wrote recently in Esquire magazine, "when Washington takes real ownership of strategic security in the age of globalization.'' The Persian Gulf has the world's biggest oil reserves. After Saudi Arabia, Iraq has the secondlargest proven reserves. "The only precedent to what is shaping up now is the Roman Empire,'' says Michael Klare, professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College. "There is only one power. I don't think Britain, France or Spain even came close in other centuries to the United States today. "If the United States controls Persian Gulf oil fields, it will have a stranglehold on the world economy,'' adds Klare. Washington is betting, Klare believes, that "controlling Gulf oil, combined with being a decade ahead of everybody else in military technology, will guarantee American supremacy for the next 50 to 100 years.''”
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
132 UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL (UPI): Analysis: C. Africa Oil Production Down, by Carmen J. Gentile, Miami, Jun 9, 2006, USA TODAY: Has Oil Production Peaked?, by David J. Lynch, 16 October 2005 US NEWS: Blood, Money, and Oil, 18 August, 2003; VOLTAIRENET: The War of Energy Resources: The Power of Oil in the XXI Century, by Jack Naffair & Arthur Lepic: “According to this, the “clash of civilizations” will be only a problem of resource distribution; thus, an economic issue. There is no other possible explanation for there is no reason for the Arab world to hate a country which will be forced to become an economic vassal. The rhetoric of the religious and cultural clash is a trick to convince the public opinion to support a conflict whose end will be economically profitable for the one who provoked it.” WASHINGTON POST: Check that Oil, 14 November 2003; We're Running Out of Oil. Get Used to It, May 28, 2006; WCCO: Project Energy: Our Oil Addiction, by Ron Shelby, April 10, 2006: “Remarkably, the oil companies themselves are warning us: "Some say that by 2020 we'll have used half the world's oil. Some say we already have ... ," according to a recent Chevron ad. One oil company, British Petroleum, has even moved to change its name. BP now means, Beyond Petroleum.. But it's more than just our cars according to Senator Norm Coleman. "You're going to lose your job,” Coleman said. “You're going to lose your ability to pay for heating when it's very cold in Minnesota. We're talking about catastrophic, we're talking about, and I'm not a ‘the sky is falling’ kind of guy, but we're talking about cataclysmic impacts upon the American economy." In the halls of the U.S. Congress, the questions of diminishing supplies, alternative fuels, and sustainability have been carried traditionally by Democrats. But increasingly Republicans — often associated with big oil — are warning the party's over. “ WORLD WATCH: Peak Oil Forum in World Watch, five articles about Peak Oil: Oil: A Bumpy Road Ahead - Kjell Aleklett, ASPO; The Swedish Government’s public confrontation addressing the reality of Peak Oil was reported on by The New York Times, The Observer, Houston Chronicle, The Seattle Times, and The Oil Commission - in Swedish;
International & USA State & City Peak Oil Resolutions: Ireland: Kinsale, Ireland: Energy Descent Action Plan project CA: San Francisco, CA CA: Willits, ca IN: Bloomington: City of Bloomington, Indiana, adopts Peak Oil Resolution, by Dave Rollo: “On July 19, the Bloomington, Indiana City Council passed a resolution acknowledging That the global peak of petroleum production is “an unprecedented challenge” for society, and recognizes that the city must prepare for its inevitability. Bloomington is the 7th largest city in Indiana, home to Indiana University, and has a population of 70,000 residents plus a 40,000 student population. The resolution supports a global depletion protocol, such as the one drafted by Colin Campbell and Richard Heinberg. The Bloomington City Council directs the City Clerk to distribute this Resolution to the attention of the Indiana Congressional delegation, the Governor of the State of Indiana, and all members of the Indiana Statehouse, and urges them to take action on the impending peak in petroleum production and prepare for its consequences…….. MN: House Resolution passed by the Minnesota House of Representatives on Peak Oil. OR: Portland: Peak Oil: Community, Preparation and Outreach.
SOUTH AFRICA Oil Consultant: Mark Beare Proffessor Hussein Solomon Professor Peter Willis Professor Mark Swilling Jeremy Wakeford ABSA FutureAntz.co.za City of Johannesburg Mbendi Dept. of Environment Western Cape South African Media South African Communist Party Democratic Party South African Non-Profit Organisations
Oil Consultant: Mark Beare: A “Confidential” Oil & Gas First Paper: Oil and Gas Sectoral Analysis focusing on the Upstream Clustering Opportunities, by Consultant Mark Beare, November 2005, prepared for the Western Cape:…..2.1 … Notwithstanding investment decisions, the greater long term concern is that global oil production is 'topping out' or peaking as insufficient new reserves are found to replace current production this is also referred to as 'peak oil'. Peak oil is inevitable, but unpredictable as it will only be apparent after the fact
Professor Hussein Solomon: Professor Hussein Solomon lectures in the Department of Political Sciences and is Director of the Centre for International Political Studies. Black Gold and the New Scramble for Africa, by Prof. Hussein Solomon, Electronic Briefing Paper, Center for International Political Studies, University of Pretoria, 2006…. At present, the world's oil supply and production capabilities are reaching their peak. Global oil production, today, is barely one million barrels per day over global consumption. Given the escalating demand from China's fast growing economy, there is a real danger that the demand for oil would outstrip supply by 2020. … In this context Africa's oil supplies, or 'black gold', is of increased strategic importance to the global players and is resulting in a new scramble for the continent's oil supplies. To place matters further into perspective, in 2010 China will have 90 times more cars on the road than it has now. As a result, China's demand for oil is growing exponentially. Currently, China imports 25% of its oil from Africa and this figure is set to double in the coming years. Africa's black gold is also of growing strategic interest for the US. Currently, African oil accounts for 12% of the US' total yearly consumption and this figure is set to increase to 25% over the next 15 years. There are, however, a number of issues that account for the importance of African oil other than mere increased global demand. First, Sub-Saharan Africa holds the second highest oil reserves in the world after the Middle East. The fact that these are largely untapped affords greater
* JAG 07146 Resources * crimeninuria.blogspot.com * pin2gong-humint.co.nr * navyjag-humint.co.nr *
133 opportunities for foreign oil companies and countries. To emphasise the point, consider the following - proven oil reserves in West Africa have doubled, now yielding 60 billion barrels of crude oil. Indeed, it is estimated that by 2010, West Africa will produce one-fifth of the world's oil output…. This new scramble for Africa's oil wealth, like the earlier 19th century scramble for the continent, holds grave consequences for all Africans. ..... Here there is some urgency since, in the course of this generation southern Africa could be the site of a new scramble for Africa's energy resources on account of its abundant platinum reserves. South Africa, for instance, holds 60 percent of the world's platinum deposits. Zimbabwe's known reserves will yield a million ounces of straight platinum per year for the next 200 years. What is the significance of platinum? It is platinum that will enable hydrogen fuel cells technology's new means of vehicle propulsion.
Professor Peter Willis: Peter Willis is Southern African Director of the University of Cambridge Programme for Industry, based in Cape Town, and a Board member of the South African New Economics Network. (SANE), which invited Heinberg to South Africa. Richard Heinberg is author of The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies (2003), and Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World (2004). The End of Cheap Oil: It’s Time We Talked, by Peter Willis, published in Business Day, 19 May 2005: Mr. Heinberg and others point out that oil – the most potent form of easily accessible energy we have ever found - is a finite resource that we have been extracting for 150 years. Not surprisingly, we have found it convenient and profitable to extract the easiest first and in the last few years we have witnessed a marked failure to find major new oil fields, while existing ones are heading into decline. Indeed, it seems highly improbable that we will ever again stumble on bonanzas of the kind we were used to in the mid-20th century. What is perhaps surprising is how the world has preferred not to think about all this until it is – arguably – too late to take sufficient avoiding action. We all knew oil was finite but – let’s be honest – we didn’t stop to enquire when exactly it might start running out, and with what consequences?…………………… How do we respond to such information? We would of course be right to remain alert to alternative data and analyses, in case Heinberg and those who think like him have got it wrong. At the same time we would be wrong to assume this means the end of life as we know it, abandon hope and barricade ourselves onto remote organic farms. We would equally be wrong, however, to imagine that the free-market pricing mechanism will effortlessly match supply to demand and that technological innovation, driven by the resulting higher oil price, will effect a smooth transition to the next generation of personal transport and air travel. Yet, to judge by the reactions of many to Heinberg’s lectures, this is a popular response. Our generation’s faith in classical economics and modern technology runs deep. We have been brought up to believe there is virtually no problem that these two in combination cannot solve, from international conflict to public health, hunger and crime, a belief we cling to despite the problems’ stubborn persistence………………. To be sure, prices will play a role in moderating demand as supply diminishes. No less surely, new technologies will emerge to replace at least some of our dependence on oil. But reliance on these twin ‘fixes’ alone would be a seriously flawed strategy……………. Meanwhile, there is every likelihood that the geopolitical landscape will change to reflect the desperation of consumer nations to secure supplies from oil-producing nations, at whatever the cost. We can therefore expect high and volatile fuel prices, coupled with periodic shortages of supply. These will probably lead to a slow-down in economic activity and the loss of many jobs. This in turn will mean there is less money available to invest in making the technological and infrastructural changes necessary to shift us away from our oil dependency.
Professor Mark Swilling: "Preparing for the Post-oil Era: Options for South African Cities": How do we Prepare for Peak Oil? (Speech), by Prof Mark Swilling, Univ of Stellenbosch Forum Meeting, 19 October 2005: ….As the oil price creeps ever upwards, it is gradually being acknowledged by experts but hardly ever mentioned in the popular press that 2005 may be the year we hit the "oil peak"- the point of highest production of oil beyond which production falls as demand rises. What is not acknowledged is that there are no alternatives to oil that will provide a source of energy on a scale and cost that will make it possible to run cities like we have in the past. Cities and city life in general will be forced to go through profound changes over the next thirty years. Everything that the average city dweller takes for granted will be affected, and not just transportation. Food, clothing, the air we breathe and building materials are just the main examples. How de we prepare for this future? What does it mean for city managers, urban researchers and the average citizen? What, in short, does it mean to build sustainable cities? And how can Stellenbosch take the lead? Dept of Env: NSSD: Presentation by Prof. Mark Swilling
Jeremy Wakeford: Risks to Global Trade and Implications for South Africa’s Economy and Policy, by Jeremy Wakeford; School of Economics, Univ. of Capetown, Paper prepared for the TIPS/DPRU Forum 2005, Muldersdrift, Johannesburg, 30 November to 1 December 2005:….. 2 The End of Cheap Oil. … It is therefore pertinent to ask why the oil price is so high at present, and whether the prospects are that the price will fall, remain relatively constant, or rise further in the foreseeable future. As will be seen, this issue has massive implications for the world economy in general, and for international trade flows in particular. This brings us to three pertinent questions. (1) How much oil remains to be produced? (2) How long is it likely to last? (3) What will happen to the price of oil over the coming years and decades? These questions are the subject of an intensifying debate between two main camps, which may be called the pessimists and the optimists. The former group is comprised mainly of petroleum geologists and ecologists who warn that we are approaching an imminent peak in global oil production, which jeopardizes the future of industrial society as we know it. The optimistic side of the debate is populated mainly by economists, oil-industry lobbyists and official government sources, such as the United States Department of Energy (DoE) and the International Energy Agency (IEA). They argue that production will increase for another two or more decades and consequently there is no cause for immediate concern. The following sections present an overview of this debate. ...... [Hubberts] theory has been the subject of intense debate, particularly in recent years. Increasingly, the debate centres more on when the peak in world oil production will occur, and less on whether it will occur. …... Since the late 1990s, a slew of books has been published on what is commonly called the 'peak oil' phenomenon, including those by Campbell (1997), Youngquist (1997), Deffeyes (2001, 2005), Heinberg (2003, 2004), Goodstein (2005) and Roberts (2005). Journal articles on peak oil include those by Campbell and Laherrère (1998), Duncan and Youngquist (1999) and Duncan (2001, 2003). All of these authors assert that oil
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134 production will follow some sort of Hubbert curve, and that the consequences of peaking for industrial civilisation will be very serious, if not calamitous….1.6 Likely consequences of 'peak oil' for international trade While the economic impacts of peaking oil production are likely to be wide-ranging and deep, the focus of the present paper is on implications for international trade. The following subsections outline some possible consequences of the looming energy crisis first for global economic prospects, and then for three key sectors - transport, agriculture and manufacturing. The penultimate subsection summarises the possible effects on the structure of international trade. This is followed by a discussion of geopolitical risks related to oil depletion and how they may impact on trade. The analysis is necessarily tentative, and one of the main points this paper attempts to make is that much more attention needs to be invested in assessing the economic (and social) implications of oil depletion. …. We have some experience of the effects of supply-driven oil price shocks, especially those in 1973 and 1979, which resulted in worldwide economic recessions. What will be different after the peak in oil production is passed is that the price will never retreat to earlier levels, as it did previously. In other words, on the down-slope of the Hubbert curve the world faces an endless sequence of supply-side oil shocks. The US Department of Energy (DOE) commissioned a report on the peak oil situation by Hirsch et al (2005: 4), who conclude that: "The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking." 2.6.6 Geopolitical risks The continued globalisation of trade is also threatened by geopolitical risks. Competition over dwindling energy and food resources looks set to increase dramatically in the years ahead, with the US and China in particular appearing to be on a collision course. This may well precipitate trade wars in the future. More seriously, in a worst-case scenario - which Heinberg (2004) for one sees as the most likely outcome - the occurrence of military wars over resources may rise. As the world's military and economic superpower, the path taken by the US will affect the entire globe. US foreign policy under the Bush Administration has been stridently unilateralist, evidenced most clearly by its invasion of Iraq without United Nations approval. Engdahl (2004) makes the case that not just the latest Iraq war, but also the First and Second World Wars, were fought - at least in part - over access to oil reserves. ABSA (2004: 4) states that the "Iraqi war may be the first of a series of conflicts over global oil resources." Mr. Wakeford’s UCT Econergy Blog: Peak Oil and Peak Oil Awareness Growing
ABSA ABSA (2004: 4) states that the "Iraqi war may be the first of a series of conflicts over global oil resources." (See Risks to Global Trade and Implications for South Africa’s Economy and Policy, by Jeremy Wakeford; School of Economics, Univ. of Capetown, Paper prepared for the TIPS/DPRU Forum 2005, Muldersdrift, Johannesburg, 30 November to 1 December 2005:
FuitureAntz.co.za Powerpoint Presentation Resource Shortages:….. Page 4: “What if? This time oil prices remained high? Current shortages aren’t temporary? Current shortages are a pre-cursor to when oil reserves ‘really’ run low?” and proceeds to (7) explain the Club of Rome’s contradictory analysis of resource economics, namely that: “Limits to Growth result primarily from depletion of non-renewable resources”, which finds that “as resource prices rise and mines are depleted, more and more capital is used for obtaining resources, leaving less to be invested for future growth”, and “the most probable result will be sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population & industrial society.” It then follows with Hubberts Peak Oil theory (8, 9, & 10), followed by James Caldwell’s analysis of Hubbert’s theory: “The world’s industrialized nations are “moving” to protect their oil supplies. He views the US led invasion of Iraq as a key example. Other major oil users such as Russia and China have also been manoeuvring to secure sufficient supplies albeit without oil producing countries”(11), when ‘shortages start’…. ‘secure sufficient oil by … (1) expropriating production amounts previously used by other countries (by keeping consumption up, the US can afford to take oil away from other countries), but once there is ‘no oil to fuel the economy the US population represents a cost, not a benefit – they have no energy with which to produce, all they do is consume. At this point, it is in the US’s interest to send its bloated population to war. And the more casualties the better. Each person killed represents a saving of +/- 8,000 kgs of oil p.a; or (2) reducing consumption”(14)… ‘ Caldwell asserts that the only way to reduce US and global demand for oil is by global war involving massive casualties in US and industrialized countries.. The US president cannot say he is sending citizens to war to eliminate them, any more than he could say he was invading Iraq for its oil. The President will seek excuses to engage in wars with massive casualties.”
City of Johannesburg: GDS 2006 for the City of Johannesburg, Chapter 2: The Long Term Strategic Perspective: Page 21: Peak oil.. The growth of the world economy over the past century and a half was made possible by the availability of cheap energy in the form of fossil fuels - oil, coal and natural gas. Oil fuelled the industrial age and fossil fuels have become indispensable in transport, production of medicines and plastics, electricity generation, and so on. Fossil fuels are non-renewable resources and they will, eventually, run out. This reality forces us to confront the question of when the world will reach its peak in global oil production. Referred to as "peak oil", this is not the point at which oil runs out, but the point at which no new reserves can be exploited, leading to a decline in production, while demand continues to increase. At this point, analysis suggests, the price of oil will rise to well over $100 per barrel. This will have devastating economic and social consequences for an isolated city such as Johannesburg, far from the coast and far from international markets. It will also have a severe impact given that this City was largely built in the age of the automobile, and is today overly reliant on private vehicle-based modes of transport. Chapter 3: Development Paradigm: Page 22: The impending peak in the production of oil, and the continued increase in demand for this non-renewable, will dramatically increase the cost of transport using current technologies. This will not only impact on rich residents with cars. The cost of public transport will also rise. And the price of all household necessities transported to Johannesburg will increase. Firms sensitive to the cost of transporting goods to distant markets will become less competitive, impacting directly on the availability of jobs in industry…
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135 Mbendi: The Truth About Oil and the Looming World Energy Crisis, October 2000, revised in February 2002, World Oil and Gas, by Mbendi, ASPO information page.
Dept of Environment: A South African National Strategy for Sustainable Development – Rationale, Vision, Mission and Principles Revised Draft, 22 September 2005, Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism: Long-term urban and infrastructure planning must take into account key resource thresholds such as peak oil, water shortages, climate change, ecosystem services, and how these will impact on the costs of doing business and operating households in different parts of the city. Presentation by Professor Mark Swilling to the Dept of Env: NSSD
Western Cape Declaration of Intent to develop a Sustainable Development Implementation Plan (SDIP) for the Western Cape, 22 June 2005, Cape Town, Appendix – Report of the Dialogue Sessions: A “Confidential” Oil & Gas First Paper: Oil and Gas Sectoral Analysis focusing on the Upstream Clustering Opportunities, by Consultant Mark Beare, November 2005, prepared for the Western Cape:…..2.1 … Notwithstanding investment decisions, the greater long term concern is that global oil production is 'topping out' or peaking as insufficient new reserves are found to replace current production this is also referred to as 'peak oil'. Peak oil is inevitable, but unpredictable as it will only be apparent after the fact
South African Media: BUSINESS, FINANCIAL / STOCK MARKET PUBLICATIONS: BUSINESS DAY: End of the Oil Age, by Lindsay Williams, 21 April 2005; with guest Petroleum Review editor, Chris Skebowski: Skebowski ends with: “We’re assuming that we can - in an unrestrained way - let people have as much oil (fuel) as they want, providing they’ve got the cash to pay for it. That, I don’t think, is particularly sustainable. When we say our whole way of life may have to change - this reflects the fact that oil is pervasive in almost everything we do. First of all, about 70% of oil actually goes into the transportation sector - sea, air or land. Our whole economy is predicated on having that. It’s very difficult to envisage a modern developed society - without large volumes of relatively low cost oil. Some of the other uses - like lubricants, like petro-chemicals - are even more restrictive because there just aren’t obvious alternatives to them! So if the whole supply is going to shall we say “go flat” with no growth - then we’ve got to work out how we can conduct normal economic activities with less oil! BUSINESS DAY: The End of Cheap Oil: It’s Time We Talked, by Peter Willis, 19 May 2005 BUSINESS DAY: Rainwater Prophecy, Michel Pireu, 12 January 2006;: Fortune magazine’s investor’s guide for 2006 carries a piece on Richard Rainwater, “a happily married guy with more than $2 billion,” who, according to the magazine, “is no crackpot”……… Having said that, you don’t get to become a multibillionaire through incremental gains on little stock trades. You have to push past conventional thinking, or as Rainwater puts it: “look at all the scenarios from A to friggin’ Z … and not be afraid to focus on Z.” …… The next blow up, however, looms so large that it scares him. “This is the first scenario I’ve seen where I question the survivability of mankind,” says Rainwater. His concern is with the implications of the peak-oil theory - spawned by Shell geologist M King Hubert who in the 1950s predicted that total US oil production would peak in the early 1970s. His analysis caused a furore and was widely disparaged but proved correct. Fifty years later, a growing number of noted geologists and industry analysts are suggesting that the global oil supply may now be topping out. If they are correct, and he thinks they are, Rainwater believes the oil shortage will not only send prices rocketing past any level contemplated but will create significant conflict. ENERGY MANAGEMENT NEWS: Is There a Future Without Oil?, by Peter Vernon, quarterly newsletter of the Energy Research Center (ERC), UCT; FINANCIAL MAIL: The Global Oil Industry at a Crossroads, by Stafford Thomas, 09 September 2005: “Welcome to the age of the perpetual oil shock. This is the message coming through loud and clear from the world's major oil producers as they warn that the era of cheap oil is over.”; FINANCIAL TIMES: Latter-day Malthusians are wrong about fossil fuels, by Martin Wolf, 07 July 2006; POLITICAL, NEWS, ETC. PUBLICATIONS: BIOPHILE: When the Oil Runs Out, by David Ross, 26 May 2006; CAPE TIMES: US Invasion of Iraq was a resource war, by Melanie Gosling, May 03, 2005; Academic warns of global crisis as oil production peaks, by Melanie Gosling, Cape Times, May 3, 2005; CARTE BLANCHE: End of Oil, by John Webb Interviews Richard Heinberg, Carte Blanche, 08 May 2005, with comment from Andre de Ruyter (Strategic Operation Manager, Sasol): CarteBlanche: André de Ruyter (Strategic Operation Manager, Sasol): "We calculate that we have some 300 years' worth of coal left for local use, including exports, so to be alarmist about the state of our coal reserves at this stage, I think is not necessary." André says we can keep our faith in cars because fossil fuel will remain profitable for decades ENGINEERINGNEWS.COM: Oil: Are We Running Out, by Nicola Mawson, 11 February 2005; GRAPEVINE, UWC: Oil Wells Are Running Dry, by Lynne Rippenaar, Student Journalism @ UWC; MAIL & GUARDIAN: Is this the legacy we want to leave our children? by Glenn Ashton, Mail & Guardian, 06 Dec 2004: “Time for change: Yet this state of affairs need not continue. We have, by most accounts, reached peak oil production. We will never have cheap oil again. There is talk of a shift to low-grade coal and even worse options, but the idiocy and futility of this route is clear to all but the blind. We need to move toward a way of life so radically different it is hard to consider possible today, but we also should not believe such change is impossible. Radical change is essential for the future of all of life on earth. How do we embrace this change,
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136 which threatens the very core of our culture, our current way of life? More to the point, can we continue to rely on a system that is inevitably moving toward atrophy? Yet, precedents for radical change do in fact exist.” THE MERCURY: Academic paints chilling picture: Oil shortages 'will cause global chaos', by Melanie Gosling, May 03, 2005; NOSEWEEK: WebDreams: Peak Oil Theory…, June 2006;
South African Communist Party Red Alert: A new growth path to address the jobs crisis and foster sustainable livelihoods, Blade Nzimande, South African Communist Party: General Secretary, 2005;
Democratic Party Govt should consider $100-a-barrel task team, Hendrik Schmidt, DA Spokesperson on Defence, 15 August 2005.
South African Non-Profit Organisations Ground Zero in the Carbon Economy, People on the Petro-chemical Fence Line, Friends of the Earth International, Booklet 5 of 5, by Groundwork.org.za, the South African Exchange Program on Environmental Justice, and International Possibilities Unlimited; Message from the IUCN Country Programme Coordinator, August 2005;
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