JANUARY 002010 / ISSUE 003
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Scanning the World by Jamais Cascio In Futures Thinking: The Basics, I offered up an overview of how to engage in a foresight exercise. In Futures Thinking: Asking the Question, I explored in more detail the process of setting up a futures exercise, and how to figure out what you're trying to figure out. In this entry in the occasional series, we'll take a look at gathering useful data. Like the first step, Asking the Question, Scanning the World seems like it would be easier than it really is. In my opinion, it may actually be the hardest step of all, because you have to navigate two seemingly contradictory demands: You need to expand the horizons of your exploration, because the factors shaping how the future of the dilemma in question will manifest go far beyond the narrow confines of that issue. You need to focus your attention on the elements critical to the dilemma, and not get lost in the overwhelming amount of information out there. You should recognize up front that the first few times you do this, you'll miss quite a few of the key drivers; even experienced futurists end up missing a some important aspects of a dilemma. It's the nature of the endeavor: We can't predict the future, but we can try to spot important signifiers of changes that will affect the future. We won't spot them all, but the more we catch, the more useful our forecasts. The biggest problem you'll face is wrestling with the limitless number of issues and forces related
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to your key question. In nearly every case, there will be too many for you to investigate them all. Moreover, only a few of them will be truly critical to determining the outcome of your problem. So how do you narrow down the drivers? Look Backwards In many ways, the best training for futures work is the study of history. Scenario-based forecasting can be thought of as anticipatory history--scenarios are often written as if looking back from the narrative "present" (which could be 2015 or 2020 or 2050 or whichever point your scenario is set) at how that world came to be. It stands to reason, then, that getting a handle on understanding what led to the real present will help you understand what will shape the future. Digging up college history textbooks can't hurt, but (as noted before) you probably aren't trying to develop scenarios of the future of the world. Instead, you will need to dig up multiple perspectives (if possible) on how the subject of your dilemma got to where it is today, and then work your way backwards. How did your company come to need to look for new place to build a widget factory, for example? If the primary answer is "increased demand," start looking at what drove that increased demand, and then what triggered that change, and so on. The reason you want to find different perspectives is that you're looking for patterns not answers. Are there cause-and-effect loops that seem to show up time and again? Do your various sources all point to similar processes? Continued on page 2 THE FLUX CAPACITOR
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Continued from page 1 Your future scenarios won't simply be re-tellings of the past--but they should reflect the kinds of drivers that have already proven to be important. How far should you look back? The futurist rule of thumb is to look back twice as far as you want to look forward. If you've decided that your scenarios will be set 12 years out, then you'll want to look back roughly 24 years. That may require you to look at parallel or competing organizations, but again: your goal is not to come up with universal causes, but to spot patterns. Ask Around If you're reading this, you're clearly of above-average intelligence (and good-looking too!), but even the most brilliant among us can't and won't know everything. The next step in scanning is to find other people who may have useful insights into your dilemma. Some of these may be experts in the field, or people with a good grasp of the history of your organization. But make a point of talking to outsiders, too. In your "looking backwards" exercise, you will have come across a number of recurring patterns and important drivers shaping the past. Find people--in academia, in industry, even in the blogosphere--who seem to have interesting things to say about these forces external to your organization. And if you're really feeling daring, find a few people who have nothing to do with your dilemma or drivers at all, but offer intriguing insights about the world in general--science fiction writers often fit that role. You're not going to ask them to solve your problem. That's your job. You're going to ask them what they would be looking for in trying to figure out the answer to your dilemma. What are the paths they would follow? What are the issues they'd be concerned about? You'll also want to ask them what they see as important changes happening in the coming years, both in their area of expertise and in general. Here, you're trying to gather both important data points specific to the problem, and (again) recurring patterns. If the design specialist, the environmental scientist, and the science fiction writer all call out "smart objects" as something to watch, it's probably worth investigating.
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Follow Your Nose This is the step that will be the hardest--and probably the most cursory--at first, but increasingly important as you continue to engage in futures thinking. Simply put, this is the process of gathering information and looking for items that stand out as interesting. That's it. Your sources will be quality general-interest magazines (such as The Economist or New Scientist) and Web sites (such as Fast Company or Worldchanging), as well as specialty resources related to your main topics of interest. This will mean drinking from a firehose of information--I follow something on the order of 300 RSS newsfeeds, as an example. It also means learning how to tease out the useful and interesting from that flood. Unfortunately, there isn't an easy heuristic for doing so. I can't tell you how to determine "usefulness" and "interestingness"--it's something you'll figure out through practice and experimentation. Fortunately, the more you dig through your newsfeeds and information resources and apply what you've found, the better you'll get at spotting the useful and interesting. And as you continue your futures thinking practice, you'll almost certainly find it useful to engage in scanning even when you're not actively working on a project. You'll find yourself reading through magazines and blogs, noticing the stories and headlines that others might miss in the noise, but stand out to you like beacons. Keeping track of the "distant early warnings" of future changes will become a habit, and hopefully a pleasure.
2010 Trends by Trendwatching.com 1: BUSINESS AS USUAL Forget the recession: the societal changes that will dominate 2010 were set in motion way before we temporarily stared into the abyss. 2: URBANY Urban culture is the culture. Extreme urbanization, in 2010, 2011, 2012 and far beyond will lead to more sophisticated and demanding consumers around the world. 3: REAL-TIME REVIEWS Whatever it is you're selling or launching this year, it will be reviewed 'en masse', live, 24/7. 4: (F)LUXURY Closely tied to what constitutes status (which is becoming more fragmented), luxury will be whatever consumers want it to be over the next 12 months. 5: MASS MINGLING Online lifestyles are fueling and encouraging 'real world' meet-ups like there's no tomorrow, shattering all cliches and predictions about a desk-bound, virtual, isolated future. 6: ECO-EASY To really reach some meaningful sustainability goals this year, corporations and governments will have to forcefully make it 'easy' for consumers to be more green, by restricting the alternatives. 7: TRACKING & ALERTING Tracking and alerting are the new search, and 2010 will see countless new INFOLUST services that will help consumers expand their web of control. 8: EMBEDDED GENEROSITY This year, generosity as a trend will adapt to the zeitgeist, leading to more pragmatic and collaborative donation services for consumers. 9: PROFILE MYNING With hundreds of millions of consumers now nurturing some sort of online profile, 2010 is a good year to introduce some services to help them make the most of it (financially), from intention-based models to digital afterlife services. 10: MATURALISM 2010 will be even more opinionated, risquĂŠ, outspoken, if not 'raw' than 2009; you can thank the anythinggoes online world for that. Will your brand be as daring THE FLUX CAPACITOR
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You need a Chief Innovation Officer
By Wouter Koetzier and Adi Alon - Article from Forbes
Innovation is very difficult for many companies around the world. Companies tend to be too risk averse; they don't learn from their mistakes; they focus too much on incremental improvements; they have too many uncooperative employees walled off from one another. That's all according to new global innovation research done by Accenture, the consulting, technology services and outsourcing company. To quickly and effectively overcome these challenges, businesses need to establish uniformity of command by designating a single person to be accountable for their innovation programs. That one person should be a high-level executive who leads a cross-functional value chain. It's not so critical that this person be labeled "chief innovation officer," as he or she already is at some companies; what is paramount is that there must be accountability for innovation at the executive level. Designating an executive as the innovation leader is like naming a chief marketing officer, a chief financial officer or the like: It's a definite step in the right direction, but it isn't enough on its own. Many companies appoint someone to lead innovation but then fail to provide an appropriate budget, supporting tools or a clear strategic direction for taking full advantage of the appointment. That doesn't work. The assignment of an innovation executive needs to be complemented by disciplined management direction, clear strategies and processes, and a dedicated budget commensurate with the task at hand. These conclusions all come out of Accenture's new research results on the status of corporate innovation around the world. Overall, the research reveals that innovation is a top priority for companies seeking to increase their revenues, but they usually get a poor return on their investment because of flaws in managing it, such as not having a single executive in charge. We believe those poor returns can be turned into profitable, sustainable growth if innovation is systematically managed end to end, with the same rigor and discipline as other major business processes.
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Designation of a chief innovation executive is nothing new, but it still isn't widely embraced. Our survey results strongly indicate that more companies should appoint a highlevel executive to focus on innovation. By a ratio of two to one, respondents at companies with a single person leading corporate innovation reported higher innovation performance and capabilities than those at companies that didn't have such a person. Likewise, companies with a single innovation leader reported higher levels of satisfaction than their counterparts. Looking at our survey responses from people at companies with a chief innovation officer-like position, we found that: •
More than a third (36%) said they were satisfied with their companies' pipelines of product and service initiatives, compared with only 14% at companies that lack a single appointee;
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More than a third (36%) indicated that they were satisfied with the development of their product portfolios, compared with 13% at businesses without a designated innovation executive; and
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More than a quarter (27%) said they were satisfied with their companies' ability to convert ideas into concepts and offerings, compared with just 11% of those without an innovation leader.
Accenture's research also found that people at companies with a chief innovation executive believed they were more competitive and had achieved better innovation performance. Forty percent of those respondents said their level of innovation was much stronger than their competitors'. Organizational design explains a lot. Although executives consistently say top management is committed to innovation, a mere 21% in our study had a chief innovation executive, and only another 11% had assigned some other top executive to be in charge of the process. Many more firms have dispersed innovation responsibility; 48% said that multiple
executives were responsible for innovation at their companies. Despite efforts to add structure to innovation, current management practices and processes have numerous shortcomings. Fewer than half of the respondents (44%) said their company had an effective, holistic approach to new product or service development and introduction. Even fewer, 41%, said their company had a well-defined innovation strategy. Putting a senior executive in charge can help solve one common difficulty with innovation: that new ideas languish because they have no internal champion. Indeed, more than a third of our survey respondents said this was a major problem for their companies. To raise the return on innovation investment, companies need to treat innovation with the same discipline as other functions. The most successful companies are generating profitable revenue year after year by managing innovation as a business process--setting achievable goals, giving employees resources and building in accountability. They realize that most ideas and prototypes fail, but they reward failure, to keep their employees focused on innovation. What distinguishes successful innovators is not their level of spending but rather how they manage innovation. Successful innovators adhere to uniform structures and processes and embrace a return-on-investment focus. In most cases the whole corporation needs to change its thinking about innovation, treating it as a major corporate function that requires rigorous and uniform management of processes and procedures. Making innovation systematic is of the utmost importance. Wouter Koetzier is global managing director of Accenture's Innovation Performance Group. Adi Alon is North American managing director of Accenture's Innovation Performance Group
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A small collection of the legal issues Predicting the future is not easy. Most issues are uncertain - yet some key elements seem to have conventional and defined laws that will regulate (what we believe) to be one of many futures.
Shermer's Last Law Any sufficiently advanced extraterrestrial intelligence (alien) is indistinguishable from God. Grey's Law Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
Murphy's Law Anything that can go wrong will go wrong.
Wirth's law Software gets slower faster than hardware gets faster.
Finagle's Law of Dynamic Negatives Anything that can go wrong, will - at the worst possible moment
Segal's law A man with a watch knows what time it is. A man with two watches is never sure.
Isaac Asimov’s Three Laws of Robotics §1 A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm. §2 A robot must obey any orders given to it by human beings, except where such orders would conflict with the First Law. §3 A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law. Zeroth’s Addition to The Three Laws of Robotics §4 A robot may not harm humanity, or, by inaction, allow humanity to come to harm.
Mark W. Tilden's Three Guiding Rules for Robots §1 §2 §3
Dollo's Law An organism is unable to return, even partially, to a previous stage already realized in the ranks of its ancestors.
Kranzberg's Laws of Technology §1 Technology is neither good nor bad; nor is it neutral. §2 Invention is the mother of necessity. §3 Technology comes in packages, big and small. §4 Although technology might be a prime element in many public issues, nontechnical factors take precedence in technology-policy decisions. §5 All history is relevant, but the history of technology is the most relevant. §6 Technology is a very human activity - and so is the history of technology. Theodor Sturgeon's Law §1 Nothing is always absolutely so §2 Ninety percent of everything is crud
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A robot must protect its existence at all costs. A robot must obtain and maintain access to its own power source. A robot must continually search for better power sources.
Gall's law A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that worked.
Keynes's Law Demand creates its own supply
Godwin's law As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches one. THE FLUX CAPACITOR
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The social organization
and the aspects you haven’t thought of
The effectiveness of an Organizational Design exercise depends on the fit of process, structure and behaviour that make up the organization and how they are aligned with both existing and desired future capabilities.
Are there current reporting structures that inhibit this interaction? 2: The ability
Social Business Design adds a new type of complexity to an organizational design exercise. In traditional organizational design exercises, it was paramount to identify both the current state and the future state of the organization, and then design a path to that final outcome. In Social Business Design we must identify not only the bounds but also the flexibility of the organization to adapt to new factors and to develop emergent outcomes. When thinking about organizational design for Social Business, consider these factors 1: Integration of External and Internal ecosystems What is the current and desired future level of interaction of the organization’s ecosystems? An understanding of the current and desired future sociality of the organization is critical. How do you enable employees to interact and engage with customers and partners? What tools do they need to do this, and what compliance issues do these connections surface?
to manage change Change can be painful if it is mismatched to the organization in terms of scale, structure or intent. The organization and its partners must have the ability to design, manage and measure the changes being made to itself. This is often achieved through the use of both internal and external (consultant) resources. Before beginning a change exercise, it is important to understand what has come before. 3: A strategic approach Changing an organization in the absence of a strategic goal is not generally a sound path. Before re-designing an organization and implementing a change program, a strategy and set of clear goals are paramount to a successful organizational design. Organizational Design and Change Management programs are tools leveraged by Social Business Design to help your organization be both more effective in your current market and to find new markets for your products and services. They are not however, ends in and of themselves. They must be used in concert with other Social Business Initiatives, such as strategy development, in order to be successful.
Featured Publication: Wisdom of the Crowds While not really being a new publication per se (The Wisdom of The Crowds have been lying on my nightstand since its first publication in 2004) I haven’t gotten around to reading it until now. And a damn shame that was! The book is an excellent eyeopener into what Surowiecki calls “why the many are smarter than the few”.
The Wisdom of the Crowds is truly a must read for anyone who wishes to understand the nature of human behavior - in groups. Illustrated with examples throughout the book distinguishes between three fundamental types of wisdom of the crowds; cognition, coordination and cooperation. The book can be acquired through major bookshops and is a New York Times bestseller.
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Featured Reader
Name Peter Andreas Lemmich Job Currently at Expat in Denmark
They met through a common friend. What started with a few meetings on a campaign communicating “the European idea” turned into several rendezvous at the local tavern (Toga) and eventually Karpantschof moved in with Lemmich and stayed there for almost three years.
Hometown Stroebyede, Denmark Email Peter@Lemmich.eu Link www.Konkosmo.dk Known Karpantschof since March 2006
The campaign never materialized. Peter Lemmich, the political mind of the 21st century is the featured reader of this issue! What are your greatest expectations for 2010? In politics, a European Union that lessens the capacity and expectations gap on the world stage with more frequent and more coherent foreign policy decisions in the Council, and a retaliatory strategy in regards to climate defiants... also a democratic revolution in Iran.
Mutual Friends on facebook 47
How do you apply the “future” to your work?
In my current field we are operating in between the expectations of the time before the financial crisis, and a future Copenhagen/Denmark which we expect to be even more multicultural and -lingual, open, and flexible in regards to foreign workers In sports a hopefully peaceful World and families. Cup in South Africa and in entertainment, yet another Twilight film.
What technology, toy, trend or gadget of the future are you looking especially forward to? Apple iPhone (summer 2010?) and Apple iSlate (March 2010?); The mass production of electric cars and infrastructure (Better Place); Facebook 2; A bicycle and public transport revolution in US cities.
Whats up with Karpantschof? I am currently in dialogue with Bang & Olufsen on the future of product development; Pandora Jewelry on innovative processes and online presence while just initiated a new project with Copenhagen Business College on a brand new education in foresight and strategic planning. I am still on the board of the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies and recently appointed chairman of the TalentTuning board :) Ever wondered what the future holds for your company, organization or brand? *click* Karpantschof Home Site Homepage
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The Flux Capacitor is the free newsletter from Daniel Karpantschof, covering strategic planning, foresight and scenario building within the spheres of international markets and politics, fast moving consumer goods, education, entertainment and tech. THE FLUX CAPACITOR