Draft Paper
Niels Brock Master of Strategic Foresight January 2010
Background
Niels Brock - Copenhagen Business College/CBC has long been a frontrunner within educational development in Denmark and Norther Europe. With offers such as the IBB, The Elite High School, Entrepreneurial House and international partners of exceptionally high caliber, CBC has marked itself as a leader of innovation and knowledge development in the world. As yours truly deals with business and strategy development, with strong ties to applied futures studies and with a background in educational development, it seemed very natural that the idea of a higher education in foresight and innovation arose. CBC was a natural choice as a partner for aforementioned reasons and as a former student. Daniel Karpantschof Washington, D.C. Objectives and Approach
The project is aimed, ultimately, to create a higher education which covers in the section, Themes, thematically divided disciplines and their practical applications in executive corporate management as well as the public sector, the political spheres, in marketing and business planning as well as many other of the numerous opportunities in which applied foresight can be utilized. An education of this type is extremely new and controversial East of the Atlantic. Similar programs do not, with few exceptions, exist and the few that does, are usually dealing with theoretical rather than applied foresight. This document outlines the initial thoughts on the project. The final program, form, content and structure will be defined further in the process and the underlying parameters and thoughts are therefore more inspiratory than definitive. It is not as such intended for Copenhagen Business College to establish a masters program, but the choice to describe it as such, was chosen in order to draw attention to future possible applications. The document is thus developed in order to inspire ideas to define the tremendous opportunities there are, rather than the challenges we face, even if these will be mentioned. Based on this draft paper, and feedback it’s feedback, the development process can be initiated. Hereby the starting gun. The ground zero of the brainstorm. Themes
The education is developed to cover the aspects relevant to the planning of an unknown future (thereby actually preparing for several). This includes tools and resources, models, Daniel Karpantschof - Progress in Progress...
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feedback mechanisms and will very much be supplemented with innovational and consequential thought processes. As a major part of futures studies, forecasting and foresight, relies on intuition and gut feeling (what sociologists often refer to as common sense), creative processes in business environments will be an integrated part of the program. The program will methodologically involve following themes: - Strategic Planning - Scenario Development - Forecasting, including Expert Forecasting and Delphi Forecasting - Trends and trends spotting, including micro-, macro- and megatrends - Statistical forecasting, including extrapolation, regression and data mining - Sociology and macro economics, including special focus on game theory - Simulated Interaction - Risk Management - Driver/Environment Scanning, including PEST/PESTEL, VRIO and Six Forces Model - Creative Processes, including brainstorming, mind mapping and Causal Layered Analysis - Business Management courses, including budgeting, marketing/sales, project development, -management and -evaluation - Strategy Implementation The program will enable the students to enter and manage processes in a business context that relates critical and constructive thinking, gain insights into, and establish processes which charts the following themes, as well as how this knowledge can be exploited, processed and used in strategic processes and business: - Future consumers and consumption trends - Future labor-markets and workplace - Future business models, structures and cultures - Future of urban living, life and culture - Future communications - Future products and product development processes - Future family and family life - International challenges of the future; geopolitical structures and globalization - Future production Structure
The program will be structured as a two year (four semester) post-graduate education in comparison to e.g. M.A. or M.Sc., but as an independent accredited education, such as MBAs. After an 18 months course, the students will finish the program with an individually developed thesis project. 1st semester
2nd semester
3rd semester
Basic Course
4th semester Thesis
Elective 1
Elective 3
Elective 4
Elective 2
Work placement or study exchange abroad
New models of project work, exchange models and special projects can favorably be developed together with business interests.
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1st Semester The first semester is a part of the basic course and is compiled of following courses and subject: - Forecasting Module 1 - Scenario Development - Trends and Trends spotting Module 1 - Creative Processes - Environment Scanning Module 1 - Business Management Module 1 2nd Semester - Forecasting Module 2 - Trends- and Trendspotting Module 2 - Environment Scanning Module 2 - Budgeting and Scheduling - Strategic Planning Module 1 - Applied Statistics (regression and data mining) Furthermore, each student will choose two of following elective packages: - Business and Product Development Module 1 - Politics Module 1 - National Structures - Sociology and Macro Economics Module 1 - Business Management Module 2 - Risk Management Third Semester Beginning with the third semester the students will have the opportunity to take part of a work placement in a foreign company, to study abroad on an accredited institution or continue the courses on CBC, by choosing one of following elective packages. Another option is to let students choose from these, and in spite of being abroad, offer electives remote whilst being in work placement. - Politics Module 2 - Internationale Strukturer - Sociology and Macro Economics Modul 2 - Business and Product Development Modul 2 - Advanced Data Mining - Procurement and Production Fourth Semester The fourth semester is primarily designated to the masters thesis, for the students abroad, as well as the ones staying home. For the ones whom chose a work placement abroad, it is however a tremendous opportunity to base their thesis on their experience from abroad, but it will as such not be required. Following electives will be offered, but will not be compulsory. - Politics Module 2 - Internationale Strukturer - Sociology and Macro Economics Modul 2 - Business and Product Development Modul 2 - Advanced Data Mining - Procurement and Production The Students
The education is targeted students from with either a bachelor in commerce, political science, social sciences, economics, philosophy or a similar diverse education. With very good reason, it could be argued that a work experience of a certain caliber and length can Daniel Karpantschof - Progress in Progress...
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replace this prior education. The program is meant to be applied innovation and strategy not an academic exercise. The typical student is aspiring to enter a global career within the private sector or an international organization. A cosmopolitan with flair for both economics, planning and creative independent thinking. The age distribution will be between 25 and 33, with a few exceptions in either end. The gender distribution is expected to be approximately 60/40 in favor of women, thereby reflecting the remaining European and American educational systems. The program seeks that the the group of students will consist of a relatively high share of students from foreign countries, to ensure that the mass will be as diverse as the educational itself, while also contributing incentives of global dimensions to a later alumni network. Global Possibilities
The education is based in a world there national borders are repealed in favor of a universal future. The students are included in a global unity through professional sparring as well as a qualified education and will be schooled to take responsibility and spot the possibilities that lies before them. The program is very much based on a view of the world as a transparent whole and will offer the students, as well as the education itself, development through international corporations and other educational facilities alike. Guest lecturers from renowned corporations is a part of the everyday life and the creative aspects and futures studies will be supported by the diversity of the education. It is meant that the education will be a recruitment platform for international corporations, whom every year will be offered to review the students’ cases and theses, thereby enabling them to recruit directly out of the program as well as hire the student whom they have had in work placement during the second and third semester. Partners
Potential Academic Partners - Copenhagen Business College, Copenhagen, Denmark - The IT University, Copenhagen, Denmark - Technological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark - The University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark - The University of Lund, Lund, Sweden - University of Hawaii, Center of Futures Studies, Honolulu, HI, US - University of Houston, Master of Technology in Futures Studies in Commerce, TX, US - Anne Arundel Community College, Institute for the Futures, Arnold, MD, US - Moscow State University, BA/MA in Forecasting, Moscow, Russia - United Nation University, Dept. of Futures Studies, Tokyo, Japan - Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany - Boston College, MA, US Potential Professional Partners - Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies, Copenhagen, Denmark - The Academy for Futures Studies, Copenhagen, Denmark - House of Futures, Copenhagen, Denmark - TalentTuning, Oslo, Norway Daniel Karpantschof - Progress in Progress...
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- RAND Corporation, US - NCVO 3s4, London, UK - World Future Society and Association of Professional Futurists - The Hudson Institute, DC, US - The Arlington Institute, WV, US Potential Sponsors with Vested Interests - SAS Institute (renowned for data mining) - IBM (renowned for predictive forecasting) - Royal Dutch Shell (renowned for scenario planning) - Nokia (renowned for future lab) - Nestlé (renowned for strategic management) - Apple Computers (renowned for creative strategies) - IKEA (renowned for strategic scenarios) - Google (renowned for trend research and innovative approaches) - Wired Magazine Experimental Approach
Prior to a full launch of an educational program of this sort, parts of it can favorably be tested by offering selected courses as electives on other educational levels of CBC. Courses such as scenario development and trends spotting would be ideal to test out on e.g. the International Business Baccalaureate/IBB, thereby gauging interest and have the students “taste” the forthcoming education. Schedule
January 21st, 2010
Current Document
First Consideration
February 1st, 2010
April 1st, 2010
Research Phase Initiated
July 1st, 2010
Second Draft of Project Specification. Includes an implementation, finance and launch plan.
August 1st, 2010
Final Draft of Project Specification along with confirmed financing, implementation strategy and launch plan.
Second Consideration
August 15th, 2010
Implementation Phase Initiated (1 year)
August 1st, 2011
Class One of Copenhagen Business College’s Master of Strategic Planning starts
July 20th, 2013
Graduation Ceremony for Class One
Further development of the program and partner scoping.
Development Phase Initiated
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First Draft of Project Specification
Final Review and Decision
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