Multilateralism

By Jean Balme

Jean Balme is a MA student in Geopolitics, Territory and Security within the Department of Geography at King’s College London. His research interests are primarily focused on politics sub-Saharan Africa, world diplomacy and geopolitical dynamics. Being French, he is a member of the think tank Les Jeunes IHEDN and has interned at the French embassy in the United Kingdom.

Multilateralism in the 2020s: What to expect for the new U.S. president in the game of thrones

In light of the recent events that have shaken Washington D.C. and the Capitol, we have assisted to scenes that are not worthy of the state that has dominated the world for the past 30 years. The decline of the U.S. seems inevitable and will constitute one of the major geopolitical matter of the 2020s.

This is it. While the U.S. reviews its four years of inconsistent foreign policy [1], the newly elected President Joe Biden will have to compose with a more unstable world and define a strategy that would keep the U.S. as a hyperpower [2]. Since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. has imposed itself as the guarantor of international stability. It is clear that nowadays, this idea of liberal international order is running out of breath. Yet, the U.S. maintained hegemony, despite being constantly challenged. The past four years have changed the game. Undeniably, Trump’s biggest impact on international politics is the hastening withdrawal of the United States of America as the guardian of stability, even if the premises of this shift have been observed under Obama. Biden’s administration cannot reverse the flow of things. There is no denying that the U.S. is considered by its pairs as another actor that can be overcome, especially China which seeks to steal the global leadership. What is at stake for Biden is to stop the U.S.’s decline of power. This idea is shared by the British historian Paul Kennedy in his much-acclaimed ‘The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers’ in 1987:

“The task facing American statesmen over the next decades, therefore, is to recognize that broad trends are under way, and that there is a need to “manage” affairs so that the relative erosion of the United States’ position takes place slowly and smoothly, and is not accelerated by policies which bring merely short-term advantage but longer-term disadvantage.” [3] With the rise of China, the risk of the EU taking its destiny into its hand or the Middle East’s deadlock, Biden’s administration will face burning challenges in 2021. The emergence of these phenomenona seem to be ineluctable in view of the past decade.

Firstly, the main concern for both the U.S. and the rest of the world is China. Undeniably, China’s economic power challenges the U.S. but recent years have proven that the PRC is becoming more and more involved in the political arena. Regarding Trump’s presidency, his personal style of communication did not play in the U.S.’s favour when it comes to the China-U.S. opposition. It is true that with Biden as president, there will not be any aggressive tweet or extravagant declaration. However, in substance, President Trump has shattered

the consensus that takes its roots during the Den Xiaoping and Kissinger period. It consists in 30 years of excessive American-globalisation based on a pact called ‘Pax Americana’ [4], and the assumption that China would grow increasingly like the West through constructive engagement [5]. Trump changed all of it, there is no turning back. Republicans and Democrats both agree on the fact that China is the main issue Biden’s administration will have to work on. The newly elected president will have to reengage into trade deals in order to keep its influence over the Pacific. Trump withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement. Policy-makers have interpreted this move as a symbol of a declining U.S. interest in the region and an inability to assert its leadership, allowing China to shape regional rules of commerce and diplomacy through its own trade and investment initiatives [6]. On trade war, China has already taken the advantage over the U.S. by signing the RCEP, the world’s biggest trade deal [7] with 15 countries of the Asia-Pacific region representing almost a third of the global population. The success of this operation could, once more, strengthen China’s power.

This opposition between the two superpowers is structural in the international order and will be the refrain of the 2020’s.

One of the burning issues for President Biden that will certainly modify the world’s structure is the European question. While the United States and Europe were supposed to stand shoulder to shoulder to protect gains reaped from 70 years of cooperation [8], Trump’s administration ended this special relationship. They endorsed Brexit, supported Eurosceptic right-wing parties and escalated a trade fight on European goods. There is no denying that Biden will re-establish a more conventional and cordial relationship with the EU. Yet, the past four years might have opened the European’s eyes to their condition. Brexit has opened the door for a Franco-German incontestable leadership over the EU. Conscious of this new possibility, the French president Macron has praised for a stronger Europe and wishes an autonomous strategy in terms of defence and security issues [9]. Even if most of the EU members are reluctant to this option, still believing on NATO, the recent events have demonstrated that Europe cannot be naïve anymore. This could balance in Macron’s favour. The pandemic affected Europe more than anywhere else and the decision makers found out that a common response is more efficient. In response to the Covid-19, they launched the ambitious Next Generation EU recovery plan [10], proving that, conscious of its capacities, the EU does not hesitate to launch reforms that will have global impacts.

Therefore, Biden’s administration will have to deal with a more autonomous European Union, freed from the NATO-friendly United Kingdom. The coming year will enlighten us on the possibility of Europe becoming a third superpower alongside China and the U.S., with a thin but possible rivalry with the latter. Beyond the rise of a more independent EU, another cause for concern for the U.S. is the threat of a rapprochement between China and the EU. The Sino-European relations have never been stronger than it is now. Indeed, with the historic adoption of the “Comprehensive Agreement on Investments” (CAI) on the penultimate day of 2020, China has opened its doors to a block that it has long shown only little openness. Both sides have a lot to gain from this agreement, but to the eyes of the U.S, this treacherous collaboration is a significant obstacle in their fight to maintain hegemony [11]. Last but not least, challenges that await the U.S. are in the most conflictual region in the world. For 20 years, various presidents got bogged down in the Middle East. However, since President Obama, we have observed a shift in U.S.’s foreign policy. Indeed, it is clear that President Biden will pursue his predecessors’ withdrawal from the Middle East. The American disengagement from the Middle East, now

irreversible, is already leading to profound changes, including the rise in power of Turkey and the strategic rapprochement between Israel and several states like Morocco or the United Arab Emirates [12]. Despite being a diplomatic success for Trump, the U.S. might not be considered as the protector of Israel anymore. No matter which future orientation the U.S. will take and the possibility of a new nuclear deal with Iran, new actors alongside Turkey such as Russia will try to take the upper hand on the region. The instability might increase considering the number of rivalries and alliances in the region.

Clearly, the pandemic we are experiencing has changed our lives but some old mechanisms remain. States are not ready to give up their place as main actor in the international realm. The predisposition for a more multilateral world structured by the US-China opposition highlighted in last year’s Risk Report [13] has been reaffirmed despite the end of Donald Trump’s presidency. Joe Biden will have to mend the broken pots for the image, but under the curtains, he and his administration will have to face new forces inexorably unbalancing the slow agony of Uncle Sam.

Sources

[1] McTague and Nicholas. ‘The World Order That Donald Trump Revealed’ in The Atlantic. October 20, 2020. [2] Védrine, Hubert. ‘To Paris, U.S. Looks Like a Hyperpower’. International Herald Tribune. The New York Times. February 5, 1999. [3] Kennedy, Paul. The Rise and the Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000. New York, Vintage Books. 1987. [4] Nanjundan. ‘The New World Order?’. Economic and Political Weekly 26, no.22/23 (1991): 1389-392. [5] Leung, Z. Depp, M. ‘An American Consensus: Time to Confront China’. The Diplomat. January 17, 2019. [6] Fergusson, I. F. McMinimy, M. A. and Williams, B. R. ‘The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) : In Brief’. Congressional Research Service. February 9, 2016. [7] Xu Elegant, Naomi. ’15 countries signed the world’s biggest trade deal- but China is the clear winner.’ Fortune. November 16, 2020. [8] Ikenberry, J. ‘The Plot Against American Foreign Policy’. Foreign Affairs. Vol. 96 Issue 3, p2-9. 2017. [9] Maze-Sencier, Philippe. ‘After declaring NATO “brain-dead” has President Macron brought Europe any closer to strategic autonomy?’. Institut Montaigne. December 12, 2019. [10] European Union Commission ‘Recovery plan for Europe’. Available at https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/recovery-plan-europe_en [11] Elia Valori, Giancarlo. ‘The new Silk Road : The agreement between the EU and China opens up new geopolitics scenarios’. Modern Diplomacy. January 10, 2021. [12] Filiu, Jean-Pierre. ‘L’année où le Moyent-Orient a basculé’. Le Monde.fr. Available at https://www.lemonde.fr/blog/filiu/2021/01/03/2020-lannee-ou-le-moyen-orient-a-bascule/ [13] O’Connell, Brynn. ‘China’. KCL GPRIS Risk Report 2020. p. 22-23. Published by King’s College London Geopolitical Risk Society. January 2020.

Image Credits

https://time.com/5917389/joe-biden-foreign-policy/ https://financescp.net/2019/02/03/us-china-trade-war-effect-onthe-eu/ https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/1/13/us-military-presencein-the-middle-east-and-afghanistan