Space

By Dominic McClaran

Dominic is an MA Intelligence & International Security student at King’s College London. Previously serving as KCL Geopolitical Risk Society’s Editor-in-Chief in 2019, he is now the Head of Internal Comms at King’s Intelligence and Security Society. With interests revolving around intelligence, strategy, current affairs, and international security, Dominic has enjoyed relevant experience in both the public and private sector.

Space in 2021

On 4th December 2020, the stars and stripes of six American flags that scattered across the lunar surface over the course of five decades, acquired a new neighbour. Fifty years after Neil Armstrong’s one small step for the United States (US), the Chang’e-5 mission marked the moon with a flag showcasing the People’s Republic of China, or ‘PRC’. Of course, this national feat mirrored the famous Apollo missions with the ‘excitement and inspiration’ that it evoked. [1] However, it differed in one significant detail: America’s flags were made from standard and vulnerable fabrics while the PRC’s had been provided with extra protection, including coldness-resistance measures. As one official, Cheng Chang, told the Global Times, ‘An ordinary national flag would not survive the severe lunar environment’. [2] Cheng’s message was clear. While the US was bleaching white in the sun, the PRC intends to make a lasting impact in space.

‘The moon too will become yet another base for mankind.

‘But who will get there first, and establish their claims?

‘And when they do…Will they let you be second?’

Anthony T. Hincks Of course, the Chang’e-5 mission has received far less attention than its more famous counterpart - Apollo. This is unsurprising, if no less important. With the world gripped by a global pandemic, and many of its citizens bound indoors, declining interests in events beyond Earth’s atmosphere are to be expected. Unlike Covid-19, however, this resurgent ‘Space Race 2.0’ is unlikely to go away. [3] In fact, ‘critical astropolitics’ – understood to be ‘the geopolitics of space control and the transformation of state sovereignty’ – is an emergent trend that is only growing in importance, with weighty implications for life on Earth. [4] Paralleling geopolitical realities on the ground, alliances and formations within this increasingly contested domain are following clear lines of established, and revisionist powers. Within all of this, moreover, is the role of private actors and assets, labelled by one academic as ‘New Space’. [5] As a result, states and individuals alike are increasingly jostling for advantage; while the US is likely to maintain its lead through 2021, China has emerged as its most serious competitor.

‘Who controls low-earth orbit controls near-Earth space. ‘Who controls near-Earth space dominates Terra. ‘Who dominates Terra determines the destiny of humankind.’

Everett Carl Dolman

In light of recent events, Astropolitik has more than a hint of the prophetic about it; battlelines are already being drawn. In the Western world, the last couple of years have witnessed the steady formalisation and bureaucratisation of the space sector within existing military command structures: in 2019, Donald Trump announced the re-establishment of US Space Command, ‘USSPACECOM’; more recently, the United Kingdom (UK) has committed to end an ‘era of retreat’ in defence spending with over £16.5 billion being directed towards aero and cyberspace; France added ‘Space’ to its Air Force; and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) has created new departments to account for this increasingly important issue. As far as collective defence is concerned, therefore, the US and its allies are lining up to capitalise on this ‘vital domain’. [7][8]

Away from collective defence formations, however, there are clear divergences across the Atlantic Ocean regarding the commercial opportunities provided by further space exploration. Companies are jostling for privileged access to an astonishing array of activities: commercial flights; establishing satellite networks; and, looking further into the future, asteroid mining. [9] As Gwynne Shotwell, President and Chief Operating Officer for SpaceX, once commented: ‘This is a race being run by entrepreneurs’. [10] Indeed, SpaceX appears set to continue its domination of the US, taking the West along with it. In each of its three business lines – launching satellites, operating its individual Starlink internet network, and commercial air travel – it is keeping up a steady lead. [11] Of course, SpaceX must compete with a slew of other American companies, such as Boeing and parallel projects in Europe. While the continent’s leading powers are pursuing their own agendas – with Britain’s OneWeb venture ranged against a Franco-German project, the US will remain the unparalleled country on this side of the world. [12]

In fact, SpaceX’s dominance in the field has only been contended by the PRC: during 2020, the former flew 26 missions into space; China’s space agencies, meanwhile, managed 34. It should be remembered, of course, that SpaceX accounts for just over half of a total of 40 orbital launches carried out under US jurisdiction last year. [13] As such, the US is still the leading player in space as of the moment. It would be an oversight, however, to overlook China’s rise among an emergent group of astropolitical competitors. Exploiting their competitive place in advanced tech, moreover, the PRC have developed what they have termed an ‘“unhackable” form of global satellite communications’, utilising quantum physics to deeply encrypt its signals. [14] Reflecting a peak in diplomatic relations on the ground, deep-space exploration is also an endeavour subject to ‘an emerging [Sino-Russian] alliance with stronger strategic components and mutual trust’. [15] As such, revisionist powers are gearing up to challenge the US lead.

‘Though China has stated that it sticks to the peaceful use of space, we must make sure that we have the ability to cope with others’ operations in space.’

Wang Ya’nan

As in so much else, therefore, the Covid-19 crisis appears to be accelerating trends in astropolitical competition along a Sino-US split. Given the relative impotence of prevailing international laws, such as the 1967 Outer Space Treaty (OST), the possibility of such competition receding is highly unlikely. Despite the vast differences between the geopolitics of Earth and the vast, final frontier, it seems that humanity will be taking its anarchic system of international relations with it. As one academic put it, ‘Astropolitics is what humans seek to make of it’. [16] Sadly, humans appear to be seeking selfish agendas, making mutual suspicion in the process.

Sources

[1] ‘China becomes second nation to plant flag on the Moon.’ BBC News. December 4, 2020. (Accessed 08/01/2021). https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-55192692 [2] Steinbuch, Yaron. ‘China plant its flag on moon before return trip to Earth.’ New York Post. December 4, 2020. (Accessed 07/01/2021). https://nypost.com/2020/12/04/china-plants-its-flag-on-moon-before-return-trip-to-earth/ [3] Rajagopalan, Rajeswari Pillai. ‘Space Race 2.0.’ Observer Research Foundation. December 30, 2020. (Accessed 06/01/2021). https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/space-race-2/ [4] Duvall, Raymond D and Jonathan Havercroft. ‘Critical Astropolitics.’ In Securing Outer Space: International Relations Theory and the Politics of Space. Abingdon: Routledge, 2009. [5] Unal, Beyza. ‘Cybersecurity of NATO’s Space-based Strategic Assets.’ Policy Commons BETA. July 1, 2019. (Accessed 09/01/2021). https://policycommons.net/artifacts/613565/cybersecurity-of-natos-space-based-strategic-assets/ [6] Alonso-Trabanco, Jose Miguel. ‘The Dawn of the Age of “Astropolitics”?’ Geopolitical Monitor. December 16, 2019. (Accessed 08/01/2021). https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/the-dawn-of-the-age-of-astropolitics/ [7] Erwin, Sandra. ‘Trump formally re-establishes U.S. Space Command at White House ceremony.’ Space News. August 29, 2019. (Accessed 06/01/2021). https://spacenews.com/usspacecom-officially-re-established-with-a-focus-on-defending-satellites-and-deterring-conflict/ [8] Wickham, Alex. ‘Boris Johnson announces UK’s biggest defence spending boost since Cold War.’ Politico. November 19, 2020. (Accessed 07/01/2021). https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-to-announce-biggest-defense-spending-boost-since-cold-war/ [9] Dorrian, Gareth. ‘Forget the space race, a lunar gold rush is about to start. Here’s why that’s a problem.’ The World Economic Forum. May 31, 2019. (Accessed (07/01/2021). https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/05/lunar-gold-rush-is-about-to-start-and-we-could-exhaust-the-solar-system-in-fewer-than-500-years/ [10] ‘Outlook on the Global Agenda 2014: The New Space Race.’ World Economic Forum. 2014. http://reports.weforum.org/outlook-14/the-new-space-race/?doing_wp_cron=1575645300.62491 01161956787109375 [11] Fernholz, Tim. ‘Is SpaceX versus China the only space race that matters?’ Quartz. December 31, 2020. (Accessed (09/01/2021). https://qz.com/1949790/is-spacex-versus-china-the-only-space-race-that-matters/ [12] Morgan, Sam. ‘France and Germany launch space race alliance.’ EURACTIV. December 14, 2020. (Accessed 09/01/2021). https://www.euractiv.com/section/outer-space/news/france-and-germany-launch-space-race-alliance/ [13] Fernholz, Tim. ‘Is SpaceX versus China the only space race that matters?’ Quartz. December 31, 2020. (Accessed (09/01/2021). https://qz.com/1949790/is-spacex-versus-china-the-only-space-race-that-matters/ [14] Fouquet, Helene. ‘Europe Bets on China’s “Unhackable” Tech to Win Space Race.’ Bloomberg. January 5, 2021. (Accessed 06/01/2021). https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-05/europe-bets-on-china-s-unhackable-techto-win-space-race [15] Zhou, Laura. ‘China and Russia don’t need a military alliance, says Moscow’s ambassador.’ South China Morning Post. December 30, 2020. (Accessed 05/01/2021). https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3115737/china-and-russia-dont-need-military-alliance-says-moscows [16] Bowen, Bleddyn E. ‘Astropolitics and International Relations.’ Deep Space Commodities. 2018: 151-157.