Space
By Dominic McClaran Dominic is an MA Intelligence & International Security student at King’s College London. Previously serving as KCL Geopolitical Risk Society’s Editor-in-Chief in 2019, he is now the Head of Internal Comms at King’s Intelligence and Security Society. With interests revolving around intelligence, strategy, current affairs, and international security, Dominic has enjoyed relevant experience in both the public and private sector.
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Space in 2021
n 4th December 2020, the stars and stripes of six American flags that scattered across the lunar surface over the course of five decades, acquired a new neighbour. Fifty years after Neil Armstrong’s one small step for the United States (US), the Chang’e-5 mission marked the moon with a flag showcasing the People’s Republic of China, or ‘PRC’. Of course, this national feat mirrored the famous Apollo missions with the ‘excitement and inspiration’ that it evoked. [1] However, it differed in one significant detail: America’s flags were made from standard and vulnerable fabrics while the PRC’s had been provided with extra protection, including coldness-resistance measures. As one official, Cheng Chang, told the Global Times, ‘An ordinary national flag would not survive the severe lunar environment’. [2] Cheng’s message was clear. While the US was bleaching white in the sun, the PRC intends to make a lasting impact in space. ‘The moon too will become yet another base for mankind. ‘But who will get there first, and establish their claims? ‘And when they do…Will they let you be second?’ Anthony T. Hincks
36 | KCL Geopolitical Risk Forecast Report 2021
Of course, the Chang’e-5 mission has received far less attention than its more famous counterpart - Apollo. This is unsurprising, if no less important. With the world gripped by a global pandemic, and many of its citizens bound indoors, declining interests in events beyond Earth’s atmosphere are to be expected. Unlike Covid-19, however, this resurgent ‘Space Race 2.0’ is unlikely to go away. [3] In fact, ‘critical astropolitics’ – understood to be ‘the geopolitics of space control and the transformation of state sovereignty’ – is an emergent trend that is only growing in importance, with weighty implications for life on Earth. [4] Paralleling geopolitical realities on the ground, alliances and formations within this increasingly contested domain are following clear lines of established, and revisionist powers. Within all of this, moreover, is the role of private actors and assets, labelled by one academic as ‘New Space’. [5] As a result, states and individuals alike are increasingly jostling for advantage; while the US is likely to maintain its lead through 2021, China has emerged as its most serious competitor. ‘Who controls low-earth orbit controls near-Earth space. ‘Who controls near-Earth space dominates Terra. ‘Who dominates Terra determines the destiny of humankind.’ Everett Carl Dolman
