Organised Crime

By Elena Ruxandra Seniuc

Ruxandra Seniuc reads Russian and East European Studies at the University of Oxford and holds a bachelor’s degree in Criminology from Durham University. She is mainly interested in transnational security threats and asymmetrical threats, with an ever-growing passion for strategic studies.

Assessing organised crime trends

Economic recession, uncertainty, and societal disillusionment represent current global challenges. The COVID-19 crisis demanded a realignment of state resources, especially with respect to law enforcement agencies, a sector already burdened by administrative chores and complicated rules of procedure. This left a vacuum in states’ capability to respond swiftly to emergencies. Moreover, the challenges posed by changes in socio-economic norms have also shaped the modus operandi of organised crime groups worldwide, regulated by demand-and-supply market constraints. The article examines how, if at all, criminal groups managed to adapt to these times of crisis.

To begin with, a two-fold effect can be noticed. On the one hand, the pandemic disrupted some organised crime groups in carrying out traditional criminal activities, mostly by preventing them from maintaining a constant supply chain. On the other hand, the pandemic’s economic tool (mainly caused by unemployment and pre-existing economic strains) attracted more people to resort to illicit means. The closure of factories in Argentina, for example, led to a spike in cigarette contraband as it is an illegal means with high-profit margin at relatively low risk. [1] However, firearms trafficking was more prone to being constrained by geopolitical movement restrictions. Thus, the closure of internal Schengen borders in Europe affected the illegal transport of weapons from the Balkans to Western Europe. In the Middle Eastern peninsula, Saudi Arabia was an exception to this trend, with the Saudi government reporting a proliferation of illicit firearms operations. [2]

Contrary to expectations, drug markets in South East Asia and the Pacific have shown high levels of resilience and thrived in pandemic times. The production of methamphetamines – the most popular drug in the region – soared, with no changes in consumption patterns, prices and availability. [3] Similarly, global opium poppy harvests (Afghanistan, Myanmar and Mexico), cocaine production and cultivation (Latin America), and illicit cannabis cultivation (Africa) remained unaffected. [4] The situation is different in Europe and North America, where tougher travel restrictions disrupted transnational drug flows, [5] creating a shortage of psychoactive products on the black market. This resulted in drugs having higher prices and lower purity levels.

A fluctuation in drug purity is extremely dangerous for the common frequent user since illicit businesses are highly unregulated and harms cannot usually be prevented. Therefore, the manufacturer might dilute the substance with even riskier and more addictive cutting agents, or consumers may combine multiple drugs to compensate for a better ‘high’ effect. In extreme cases, users can become victims of an overdose if purity levels are suddenly increased on the market. [6] Party drugs [7] suppliers

were the biggest losers as festivals and clubs did not open their gates last year and their demand reached its nadir.

The Middle East and North Africa became a hub for archaeological looting as lockdown measures meant a decrease in security infrastructure, with less personnel being present at heritage sites. Museums, mosques and archaeological sites from Egypt, Morocco, Iraq or Israel were targeted and the captures were advertised on online black markets and sold abroad. [8] The loss for world heritage is inestimable as many of those objects are UNESCO protected artefacts, invaluable for the history of humankind.

The current pandemic was also a global wake-up-call to counter wildlife trafficking, as it does not only affect the biodiversity of the planet and global ecosystems but can also be a direct threat to human beings, as unregulated wildlife exports have the potential to transmit zoonotic diseases (i.e. SARS-CoV-2 can be spread from animals to humans). Illicit exports of pangolins (the most trafficked wild mammals in the world, identified as a potential source of coronaviruses) [9] from Vietnam to China have temporarily stagnated due to the closure of borders. Meanwhile, in African countries, poaching is on the rise thanks to high financial incentives. [10]

Migratory flows to Europe suffered significant reductions during the lockdown, however, a loosening in travel restrictions combined with prolonged economic difficulties, lack of opportunities and a surge in violence, may trigger episodes of irregular migration from Africa and the Middle East towards EU countries in the near future, thus generating significant profits for organised crime groups that engage in migrant smuggling. [11] Moreover, as the pandemic is likely to be followed by a severe economic recession, the intra-EU human trafficking is also expected to rise in order to supply the markets with easily exploitable cheap labour in sectors such as constructions, catering, agriculture, prostitution, begging and theft. [12]

Secondly, the pandemic came in as a ‘game-changer’ as quarantine measures introduced during nationwide lockdowns and the increasing shift of social life towards the digital provided better opportunities for criminal groups to engage in cyber-related illicit activities, thus significantly enlarging their attack surfaces and implicitly, their impact. Scams and frauds related to the distribution of counterfeit or non-certified medical products and personal protective equipment (masks, gloves, full-body suits, visors, etc) were most prevalent. This is a global phenomenon considering that non-conform PPE materials were seized in Spain, Italy, Ukraine, Iran, and Azerbaijan, [13] and many African countries were exposed to large markets of counterfeit pharmaceuticals. [14] This should

not be taken lightly, as selling substandard goods is not just resulting in fooling one individual for the benefit of another but also in the possibility of permanently damaging one’s health. Phishing campaigns flourished in Europe as the ‘old Continent’ gradually became one of the worst-hit global regions by the COVID-19 crisis. Malware attacks increased in complexity and swiftness, as cybercriminals changed their modi operandi and shortened the time frame between the activation of ransomware and the initial infection with the virus, aiming for an immediate maximisation of profits. [15] Activities related to sexual exploitation and abuse of minors have also risen in lockdown circumstances and those materials were conveniently circulated online in paedophilia-consumer circles, producing hard-to-trace incomes in cryptocurrencies at a distance. [16] Children are also more exposed to becoming victims of online luring for sexual purposes, recruitment into criminal rings, or radicalisation for terrorist purposes.

The pandemic was also a propitious moment for some criminal groups to restore their image and, paradoxically, to provide their own version of security governance. Taliban groups enforced quarantine measures in Afghanistan and Brazilian gangs imposed social distancing measures and curfews in favelas in order to diminish the governmental influence on territories and to make easy profits by regulating price controls of essential products. In Japan, Yakuza handed out free masks, in Afghanistan Taliban groups dispatched health teams to remote areas, and in South Africa, rival gangs called for a truce to distribute food parcels. [17] However, these activities were mostly staged publicity stunts that sought to undermine the credibility of local governments, whilst strengthening their links to those communities.

In conclusion, shifts in transnational criminal flows were heavily shaped by geopolitical factors. Having their supply chains curtailed, organised crime groups proved to be resilient and quickly adapted to new marke topportunities by relocating to the cyber realm. Furthermore, in countries exposed to endemic corruption, traditional criminal activities thrived alongside newly exploitable illicit businesses. The consequences of these actions are severe and contribute to weakening governmental structures through corruption and institutional mistrust, increase the damage on economically vulnerable communities, and encourage the reinvestment of profits into other illicit activities. Tackling organised crime represents a global priority and responsibility under the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, an agenda adopted by all United Nations Member States.

Sources

[1] Salomón, Josephina. “Argentina Smugglers Turn to Cigarettes in Coronavirus Lockdown.” InSight Crime, May 14, 2020. https://www. insightcrime.org/news/brief/smugglers-cigarettes-coronavirus-lockdown-argentina/. [2] United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. The Impact of COVID-19 on organised crime, 2020: 12-13. https://www.unodc.org/ documents/data-and-analysis/covid/RB_COVID_organized_crime_ july13_web.pdf. [3] Allard, Tom and Panu Wongcha-um. “Asia-Pacific drug trade thrives amid the COVID-19 pandemic.” Reuters, May 15, 2020. https://www. reuters.com/article/us-asia-crime-drugs-idUSKBN22R0E0?taid=5ebe3820691abf0001ee8334&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter. [4] Eligh, Jason. “Crisis and Opportunity. Impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on illicit drug markets.” Global Initiative Against Transnational Crime, 2020: 9-10. https://globalinitiative.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Crisis-and-Opportunity-Jason-Eligh-GITOC.pdf. [5] Allard and Wongcha-um, “Asia-Pacific drug trade”. [6] According to Fiona Measham (University of Liverpool), quoted in: Spinney, Laura. “The great opportunity: how Covid transformed global crime.” The Guardian, December 27, 2020. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/27/the-great-opportunity-how-covid-transformed-global. [7] Examples of party drugs: MDMA, LSC, ketamine, GHB and New Psychoactive Substances (NPS). [8] Porterfield, Carlie. “Smugglers Are Using Coronavirus Lockdowns To Loot Artifacts.” Forbes, April 30, 2020. https://www.forbes. com/sites/carlieporterfield/2020/04/30/smugglers-are-using-coronavirus-lockdowns-to-loot-artifacts/?utm_campaign=forbes&utm_ source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_term=Gordie/&sh=2ea4f56536bf. [9] United National Office on Drugs and Crime. World Wildlife Crime Report. Trafficking in protected species, 2020. https://www.unodc. org/documents/data-and-analysis/wildlife/2020/World_Wildlife_Report_2020_9July.pdf.[9] United National Office on Drugs and Crime. World Wildlife Crime Report. Trafficking in protected species, 2020. https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/wildlife/2020/ World_Wildlife_Report_2020_9July.pdf. [10] Nuwer, Rachel. “Coronavirus Disrupts Illegal Wildlife Trafficking, for Now.” The New York Times, April 29, 2020. https://www.nytimes. com/2020/04/29/science/coronavirus-disrupts-illegal-wildlife-trafficking-for-now.html. [11] EUROPOL. Beyond the pandemic: how COVID-19 will shape the serious and organised crime landscape in the EU, 2020. https://www. europol.europa.eu/publications-documents/beyond-pandemic-howcovid-19-will-shape-serious-and-organised-crime-landscape-in-eu [12] Ibid, 11. [13] UNDOC, The Impact of COVID-19 on organised crime: 2. [14] Global Initiative Against Transnational Crime. #CovidCrimeWatch – n°9, May 20, 2020. https://globalinitiative.net/analysis/covidcrimewatch-n9/. [15] EUROPOL, Beyond the pandemic: 5. [16] Ibid, 11. [17] UNDOC, The Impact of COVID-19 on organised crime: 26.

Image Credits

https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/tocta/TOCTA_Report_2010_low_res.pdf, p. 12. https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/image serve/683035937/960x0.jpg?fit=scale https://blog.rapusia.org/world/media/big/image192.jpg