Risk 2021: Navigating through the Geopolitical Whirlpools of Tomorrow

Page 15

Organised Crime By Elena Ruxandra Seniuc

Ruxandra Seniuc reads Russian and East European Studies at the University of Oxford and holds a bachelor’s degree in Criminology from Durham University. She is mainly interested in transnational security threats and asymmetrical threats, with an ever-growing passion for strategic studies.

borders in Europe affected the illegal transport of weapons from the Balkans to Western Europe. In the Middle Eastern peninsula, Saudi Arabia was an exception to this trend, with the Saudi government reporting a proliferation of illicit firearms operations. [2]

Assessing organised crime trends conomic recession, uncertainty, and societal disillusionment represent current global challenges. The COVID-19 crisis demanded a realignment of state resources, especially with respect to law enforcement agencies, a sector already burdened by administrative chores and complicated rules of procedure. This left a vacuum in states’ capability to respond swiftly to emergencies. Moreover, the challenges posed by changes in socio-economic norms have also shaped the modus operandi of organised crime groups worldwide, regulated by demand-and-supply market constraints. The article examines how, if at all, criminal groups managed to adapt to these times of crisis.

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To begin with, a two-fold effect can be noticed. On the one hand, the pandemic disrupted some organised crime groups in carrying out traditional criminal activities, mostly by preventing them from maintaining a constant supply chain. On the other hand, the pandemic’s economic tool (mainly caused by unemployment and pre-existing economic strains) attracted more people to resort to illicit means. The closure of factories in Argentina, for example, led to a spike in cigarette contraband as it is an illegal means with high-profit margin at relatively low risk. [1] However, firearms trafficking was more prone to being constrained by geopolitical movement restrictions. Thus, the closure of internal Schengen

Contrary to expectations, drug markets in South East Asia and the Pacific have shown high levels of resilience and thrived in pandemic times. The production of methamphetamines – the most popular drug in the region – soared, with no changes in consumption patterns, prices and availability. [3] Similarly, global opium poppy harvests (Afghanistan, Myanmar and Mexico), cocaine production and cultivation (Latin America), and illicit cannabis cultivation (Africa) remained unaffected. [4] The situation is different in Europe and North America, where tougher travel restrictions disrupted transnational drug flows, [5] creating a shortage of psychoactive products on the black market. This resulted in drugs having higher prices and lower purity levels. A fluctuation in drug purity is extremely dangerous for the common frequent user since illicit businesses are highly unregulated and harms cannot usually be prevented. Therefore, the manufacturer might dilute the substance with even riskier and more addictive cutting agents, or consumers may combine multiple drugs to compensate for a better ‘high’ effect. In extreme cases, users can become victims of an overdose if purity levels are suddenly increased on the market. [6] Party drugs [7] suppliers

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