Defence

By Hannah Martinez

Hannah Martinez is a second-year War Studies student participating in an exchange program with Sciences Po. She is interested in analyzing the threats to the ideal of Western Democracies as well as studying the causes and impacts of the civil and proxy wars in the Middle East. This past summer, she has been interning at the European American Chamber of Commerce based in Paris.

The 2020s: the decade of the reign of Artificial Intelligence and old power competitions

In the light of what is often referenced to as a contemporary Cold War between the People’s Republic of China and the United States, the defence policy of each country involved with those two actors is pivotal in the decade to come. The analysis of the prospective changes to national defence policies is therefore predominant to attempt to foresee the futur state of relations within the international system.

First of all, technological progress regarding weapons can be analyzed as a change in the national defence policies of the 2020s. These technological advancements in weapons range from futuristic concepts such as the Russian hypersonic glide vehicle “Avangard“ who’s production began in 2017, to Artificial Intelligence (AI) cyberspace based weapons and hypersonic weaponry. Some weapons, such as drones, that have existed since the 1930s, have been or will also be perfected. The first massive swarm drone strike for example happened in September 2019 and was perpetrated by Houthi rebels against two oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia. [1] The main characteristic of the majority of these new weapons is that they are “standoff” weapons which means they are activated and used from a certain distance. The particularity of these weapons firstly entails a certain level of precision as they are used and set off most likely in the comfort of an office space in which there is a possibility of hindsight and control of the situation. This characteristic allows a more reasoned use of force. Furthermore, “standoff“ weapons allow, by definition, discretion as well as the possibility of deniability, which has been and will be used by the political or military actors. [2] Finally, it can be argued that the technological advancement, violence and efficiency of these new weapons are new means of dissuasion. Moreover, these AI weapons consecrate big tech compagnies and GAFAs (Google, Amazon, Facebook and Apple) as major if not primary political and military actors of the 2020s, a process that gradually shifts the power relations between States that depend not only on the technological advancement some firms produce, but also on the data they detain.

It is forecasted that warfare will also progressively become more net-centric, a phenomenon directly linked to the concept of Revolution in Military affairs. This concept implies that the military doctrine and paradigm of Western warfare has evolved and changed since the 1990s, a phenomenon that national defence policies of the 2020 only seem to confirm. Information and disinformation are now key in an increasingly interconnected global security environnement to which the Tech Giants, who detain the data, have the keys. Although social media has not been militarized, it is used by military actors and has been weaponized as a characterizing feature of the national defence policies of the 2020s and thus far. [3] The use and taming of

and thus far. [3] The use and taming of social media is therefore forecast to become an increasingly fundamental aspect of national defence policies of the 2020s.

Financial changes is also a criteria analyzed in order to assess the future state of a national defence policy. With the current global recession caused as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, the majority of financial changes in national defence policies have gone one way: the national budgets for defence have been reduced and their part the each country Gross Domestic Product has declined. [4] Indeed, budgetary adjustments are necessary in order to reduce economic disparities and pay off debts at a national and supranational level. These budgetary adjustments are allowed by the reduction of nuclear warheads or the removal of troops on foreign soil for example. Throughout 2020, defence budgets have fallen globally, this is expected to widen discrepancies in power held between different nation-states. For example, not only is each member of the European Union decreasing its budget dedicated to national defence, they are also reducing their budget in the European Defence Union and European Common Security and Defence Policy and all institutions that follow such as Frontex. Therefore, European States will become increasingly more reliant on NATO who’s funding is assured by almost 70% by the United States. Indeed, the budget dedicated to national defence policies are already low for European Union countries, but under this economic pressure, European countries have no military and coercive power without NATO. The United States are there left as the main actor on the western military field.

New doctrinal changes imply new threats to which doctrines adapt and if strong technological and financial changes can be analyzed in national defence policies, doctrinal changes in warfare are expected to be subtle in the 2020s. Indeed, the threats faced by each individual country and the international community as a whole since the beginning of the 21st century are still relevant today and are unlikely to vanish within the decade. To sum up, the current main threats to the security and that require a military response are global terrorism, nuclear weapons, proxy wars and in some case, climate change. Doctrinal changes in defence policies worldwide will primarily be motivated by great power competitions. For example, in the context of the Covid-19, China has showed belligerency in its diplomatic relations with surrounding countries and the international community as they have been accused of being responsible for the global outbreak of the pandemic. As diplomacy is the last resort before violence and acts of warfare, violent Chinese diplomacy certainly entails possible future deterioration of relations and strengthening of national defence policies. The diplomatic technique they therefore have been employing is the one of the “wolf warrior“ [5] in which they denounce jealousy as the main motivation of the critics to the regime.

Furthermore, this hostile diplomatic strategy has influences their national defence policy, a statement that can be confirmed by their aggressive actions against surrounding countries such as Taiwan: Indeed, in April 2020, a Chinese aircraft carrier navigated two times in waters close to the island, according to the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense, an act that can be seen as one of intimidation and threat. [6] What does hostile acts from the first economic power in the world entail? Considering the regain of revolutionary wind in the Middle East after the shock of the pandemic that further revealed corruption and inequalities in that region, and the only growing tensions between China, Russia, Europe and the United States, the 2020s will be further punctuated by more foreign intervention, power play, wars on influence and proxy wars.

Finally, the coerciveness of the national defence policies in the 2020s will only intensify with the threat of nuclear weapons. Indeed, no concrete steps disarmament steps have been made and the proliferation of weapons is not likely to stop. Furthermore, China, the main economic power and nuclear state of the 2020s has yet to join an arms control agreement. However,

Furthermore, China, the main economic power and nuclear State of the 2020s has yet to join an arms control agreement. However, the new American president has affirmed his country’s commitment to NATO’s Mutual Defence Guarantee agreement, proclaimed his will to extend the New Start agreement with Russia and come back on the Iran nuclear deal if Iran respects the terms. [7] Therefore, as contemporary global security threats are expected to further grow in chaos and national defence policies, one may expect to see the progressive attempt at nuclear disarmament. These steps towards the stopping of the proliferation of nuclear weapons might not prove to be effective in the decade to come but they annonce the beginning of the settling of international disputes on a subject such as nuclear weapons, a prospect that although seems utopian, can set the tone for further cooperation in the 2020s.

Sources

[1] Dr Antonio Missiroli, Nato Review, “Game of drones? How new technologies affect deterrence, defence and security“, 05 May 2020 [2] Andreas Krieg, Jean-Marc Rickli, Surrogate Warfare: The Transformation of War in the Twenty-First Century,(Washington D.C., Georgetown UP, 2019) [3] Emile Simpson, War from the Ground Up: Twenty-First Century Combat as Politics, (New York, Columbia University Press, 2012) [4] Patrick Keller, Current Challenges for Disarmament and Peace Operations on the Political Agenda, “Challenges for the Defense Budget after the Economic Crisis, a European View“, 113 [5] The Paper, “Wang Yi talks about ‘War Wolf Diplomacy’ for the first time. What is the logic behind China’s current diplomacy?”, 24 mai 2020 [6] Stephae Corcuff, Nathalie Vergeron, Diplomatie 104 , Affaires Stratégiques et relations Internationales, “Covid-19: Le raidissement diplomatique chinois sera-t-il durable?“,14 mai 2020 [7] The Economist, “Putting it back together again“, January 9th 2021

Image Credits

An intercontinental ballistic missile lift off in Russia (AP: Russian Defence Ministry Press Service The Khurais oil field was attacked by drones of the Houthi rebels, September 2019 ( planetlabs)