Energy Security

Energy Security and Conflict on the Nile

By Henry Levinson

Henry Levinson is a MA student in International Peace & Security within the Department of War Studies at King’s College London. Originally from Los Angeles, his research interests focus on the Horn of Africa and the Middle East. He is particularly interested in climate change as a driver of conflict, conflict transformation and post-conflict reconciliation.

Ethiopia faces major challenges in meeting daunting residential and industrial electricity demands. Home to more than 110 million people, 70% of Ethiopians are not connected to the power grid. [1] As the country’s economy continues to grow, universal electrification has become a cornerstone policy objective for the government since 2017, following the launch of the National Electrification Program (NEP). To meet this target, the federal government is building a massive hydroelectric project spanning the Blue Nile, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

Upon completion, GERD will be Africa’s largest such structure, forming a reservoir with a volume of 74 billion cubic meters [2], comparable to that of Lake Mead behind the Hoover Dam. The dam itself is expected to produce 5,150 Megawatts of electricity. [3] Moreover, Ethiopia stands to generate a power surplus from the dam. [4] Not only will this bolster the country’s economy by increasing productivity in previously unconnected rural areas and, hopefully, catalysing industrial investment, but it will also situate Ethiopia as a power exporter in a region with high demands for cheap, clean energy.

Despite the numerous benefits for Ethiopia and the region, Egypt and Sudan have long voiced legitimate concerns around the project. Negotiations between the three are primarily concerned with two things: how quickly the reservoir will be filled, and the consequent impact on the Blue Nile’s flow during the filling period.

Egypt sees a disruption to the flow during filling as an existential threat as 90% of the country’s freshwater comes from the Nile. [5] Relations between Egypt and Ethiopia have been hostile as the two vie for control of the Nile’s waters. Egypt argues it holds veto power on any projects impacting the flow of the Nile per a 1929 British-sponsored treaty of colonies along the river, to which Ethiopia was never party. [6] Ethiopia has staunchly rejected these claims, and does not see itself bound by the treaty, thus justifying its right to constructing across the Blue Nile. Both countries have sizable populations and compete for regional influence. With Egypt’s population at nearly 100 million people, 95% of whom rely on freshwater from the Nile, the security risk of having an upstream rival with its hand on the tap is obvious.

There has been much talk of the potential for conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia over the dam’s construction. Egypt boasts Africa’s largest standing army [7], controls vital Red Sea shipping routes through the Suez Canal, and is a close strategic ally of the United States. However, it is Sudan that now plays an increasingly central role in regional stability since the outbreak of the Tigray conflict in northern Ethiopia.

Sudan, like Egypt, worries about the consequences of having the flow of the Blue Nile interrupted. Sudan’s concerns are far less urgent than Egypt’s - Sudan has access to freshwater from the smaller White Nile, it stands to benefit greatly from the cheap electricity that the dam will create and GERD will provide flood for vulnerable downstream communities in Sudan’s Blue Nile state.

However, Sudan has its own legitimate grievances over the project and with the Ethiopian government, and relations between the two have grown increasingly tense since the start of the Tigray conflict. Sudan still wants to maintain more control over the flow of the Blue Nile than Ethiopia is willing to offer, and spillover from the conflict has put security pressures on the already fragile transitional government, and led to a build-up of Sudanese troops along its shared border. Khartoum has not shied away from using its role within multilateral negotiations to leverage concessions from Ethiopia on other issues.

Sudan’s rising

Sudan is a very different country today than it was when GERD negotiations began in 2011. A popular revolution in 2019 ousted long-time dictator Omar alBashir and a new civilian interim government has since overseen the country’s transition towards democracy. In 2020, Sudan was formally removed by the United States from the State Sponsor of Terrorism list, after Khartoum normalised relations with Israel. Sudan’s reintegration into the international community under the civilian government has given the country a new understanding of itself on the region’s geopolitical stage. Sudan’s geography explains its relevance to the conflict. Landlocked Tigray borders Amhara to the south, and is where most attacks by the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) have been staged from. To its east lies the Afar region, and to its north is Eritrea, whose military has retaliated to rocket attacks originating in Tigray against its capital Asmara. [8] Sudan lies to the region’s west and has taken in more than 60,000 Ethiopians fleeing violence that has little sign of stopping. [9]

Although the Tigray conflict has already seen the involvement of foreign powers, namely Eritrea, Sudan’s participation would have massive consequences for the war and shift the mostly domestic conflict into a full-fledged internationalised one.

How does this looming threat relate to ongoing GERD negotiations?

In late December a skirmish between Ethiopian and Sudanese forces resulted in the deaths of four Sudanese and more than twenty injured. [10] The incident occurred in the al-Fashaqa border region, an 250 square kilometer area claimed by Sudan but farmed by ethnic-Amhara from Ethiopia. Sudan’s transitional council is unwilling to compromise on its sovereignty over territory they deem as rightfully Sudanese. [11] Should Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed make concessions on this land, he risks losing the vital support of the Amhara ethnic group in the federal government’s battle against the TPLF. The Amhara are a key ethnic constituency to Abiy’s ruling Prosperity Party coalition, and many Amhara have demonstrated they are prepared for battle over land disputes such as the one over al-Fashaqa. [12]

This struggle between Sudan and Ethiopia exemplifies areas of contention that were once left in perpetual limbo now being exploited against Ethiopia’s central government as it finds itself fighting a much more protracted conflict in Tigray. Leveraging its place at the table in tripartite GERD ne-

gotiations, Sudan has a valuable strategic card to play in regional geopolitics. In addition to this, the US has been partial when it comes to GERD. Sudan was removed from the state-sponsored terrorist list in exchange for normalised ties with Israel and a hefty $335 million compensation [13] to survivors and families impacted by the 1998 attacks on US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. Having recently made concessions with the US, the prediction of who would receive crucial American support should a war breakout is obvious. Sudan might be emboldened to take strategic risks that were previously unrealistic.

Worsening situation

Sudan’s attempts to garner concessions from Ethiopia may ultimately backfire. Ethiopia has made little indication towards backing down against Sudan, as doing so might prove fatal for PM Abiy. Ethiopia has warned Sudan against its increased military presence on their border, with Ethiopian foreign ministry spokesman Dina Mufti acknowledging “there are limits” to Ethiopia’s diplomacy. [14]

Recent weeks have seen a dramatic escalation in rhetoric between the two and a breakdown in GERD negotiations. Sudan has repeatedly shown it is willing to derail tripartite negotiations, and both countries are now claiming border violations by the other. [15] Any further escalation would only serve to destabilise a region already facing massive pressures and could spell disaster not just for Ethiopia’s energy security, but for the region at large.

Sources

[1] https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2018/03/08/ethiopias-transformational-approach-to-universal-electrification [2] Wheeler, K.G., Jeuland, M., Hall, J.W. et al. Understanding and managing new risks on the Nile with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Nat Commun 11, 5222 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19089-x [3] https://www.ezega.com/News/NewsDetails/7331/Power-Generation-Capacity-of-GERD-Slashed-to-5150MW-Ethiopian-Minister [4] Katrina Manson, Ethiopia uses electricity exports to drive ambition as an African power hub, Financial Times, URL: https://www.ft.com/content/ 14d2026a-902d-11e3-a776-00144feab7de [5] Maggie Michael, Dam upstream leaves Egypt fearing for its lifeline, the Nile, AP, URL: https://apnews.com/article/f2c30802d80247efa6872d5852882057 [6] Nizar Manek, Mohamed Kheir Omer, Sudan Will Decide the Outcome of the Ethiopian Civil War, Foreign Policy, URL: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/11/14/ sudan-will-decide-outcome-ethiopian-civil-war-abiy-tigray/ [7] IISS The Military Balance 2020, p.372 [8] Mebrahtu Ateweberhan, Eritreans caught in dilemma over Tigray conflict, The Africa Report, URL: https://www.theafricareport.com/53978/eritreanscaught-in-dilemma-over-tigray-conflict/ [9]https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/12/ethiopia-warns-sudan-over-border-dispute [10]https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/12/ethiopia-warns-sudan-over-border-dispute [11] Nizar Manek, Mohamed Kheir Omer, Sudan Will Decide the Outcome of the Ethiopian Civil War, Foreign Policy, URL: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/11/14/ sudan-will-decide-outcome-ethiopian-civil-war-abiy-tigray/ [12] Nizar Manek, Mohamed Kheir Omer, Sudan Will Decide the Outcome of the Ethiopian Civil War, Foreign Policy, URL: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/11/14/ sudan-will-decide-outcome-ethiopian-civil-war-abiy-tigray/ [13] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54554286 [14]https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/12/ethiopia-warns-sudan-over-border-dispute [15]https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/12/ethiopia-warns-sudan-over-border-dispute

Image Credits

https://natoassociation.ca/egypt-is-becoming-central-to-nato-area-geo-economics/ https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/7/2/sudanese-refugees-in-south-sudan-yearning-for-home https://www.wsj.com/articles/for-foreign-investment-the-west-is-losing-its-appeal-11560358800