Kinder Institute HAS 2013 Presentation

The Changing Face of Houston: Tracking Responses to the Economic and Demographic Transformations through 32 Years of Surveys.

Dr. Stephen Klineberg The Basic Presentation of the 2013 “Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey�

1900-1982

Houston was basically a “one-horse� industrial town focused

2

on refining hydrocarbons into gasoline and petrochemicals and servicing the oil and gas industry.

“The ideological thrust in Houston in the twentieth century has been

anti-government, anti-regulation, anti-planning, anti-taxes, anti-anything

that seemed to represent, in fact or fantasy, an expansion of the public sector or a limitation on the economic prerogatives and activities of the city’s business community.�

(Robert Fisher 1990)

3

The Kinder Houston Area Survey (1982-2013) More than three decades of systematic interviews with representative samples of Harris County residents,

The New Economy Quality of Place

focused on three central issues: The Demographic Revolution

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Percent increase in before-tax income

Two contrasting economic eras

110%

116%

111%

114%

100%

99% 86%

63% 50% 43%

The 30 years after World War II were a period of broad-based prosperity.

The past 30 years have been marked by growing concentrations of wealth.

-3% -10%

5%

15%

Middle 20%

Fourth 20%

2%

Bottom 20%

Second 20%

The 30 years after World War II (1949-1979) The past 30 years (1979-2011)

5

Top 20%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social And Economic Supplements.

Mean Household Income Received By Each Fifth And The Top 5 Percent, Inflation Adjusted. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Top 5%

The impact of education on employment (Civilian population aged 25 to 65, May 2013) Unemployment Rate (Adjusted) 80.0 11.0

Labor Force Participation Rate

11.1 75.0

75.8

70.0 9.0 65.0 7.4 7.0

60.0 58.9

6.5

55.0 50.0 3.8

3.0 No H.S Diploma

H.S Graduate

Some College

Bachelor's Degree or Higher

PERCENT

5.0 PERCENT

65.2

45.0

45.0

40.0 No H.S Diploma

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 2013 Report. Rates are Seasonally Adjusted.

Â

H.S Graduate

Some College

Bachelor's Degree or Higher

The New Economy

The new economy

“For a person to be successful in today’s world, is it necessary to get an education beyond high school?”

73%

The traditional “blue collar path” to financial security has now largely disappeared.

25%

“Or are there many ways to succeed with no more than a high school diploma?”

2% Don’t know/Can’t say

7

Source: 2013 Kinder Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The New Economy

Positive perceptions of job opportunities in the Houston area (1982-2013) 100%

Percent rating job opportunities as “excellent” or “good”

71% of Houstonians in 1982

gave positive ratings to job 66% opportunities in Houston.

50%

43%

68% 58%

58%

42%

48% 41%

36%

35% 25% 11%

0% 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 8

Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (1982-2013) © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The New Economy

The official unemployment rates in Harris County (1982-2013) 11.0 10.0

9.8

10.1 8.6

9.0 8.0

7.8

8.4 7.3

6.8

7.0

6.5

6.8

6.0 5.0 4.0

4.0

4.3

3.0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 9

Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The New Economy

Assessments of personal financial situations (1982-2013) 70%

62% 56% 54%

59%

51%Will be “better off”

45%

financially three or four years down the road.

41% 28%

27%

26% Personal financial 23%

21%

10% 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

10

Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (1982-3013) © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

situation has been “getting better” in the last few years.

The New Economy

Two measures of belief in the “American work ethic” (1982-2013) Percent of respondents agreeing 100%

“If you work hard in this city, eventually you will succeed.”

88%

89%

81% 73%

who work hard 71% “People and live by the rules are not getting a fair break these days.”

46%

20%

11

82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (1982-2013) © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The New Economy

Growing support for government efforts to reduce the inequalities Percent of respondents agreeing 65%

51%

52%

58% 50%

45%

50%

41%

35% 24%

Welfare benefits generally give poor people a chance to get started again.

Government has a responsibility to help reduce the inequalities in America.

Government should do more to solve our country’s problems.

0% 94 12

09

13 09

Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (1994-2013) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

11

13 96

11

The New Economy

13

Life in the Houston area compared to other U.S. metro areas (2005-2013)

“Compared to most other metropolitan areas in the country, is Houston a better or worse place to live?”

100%

78%

85%

86%

89%

90%

“Much/slightly better” 50%

17% 8%

7%

6%

“Much/slightly worse”

0%

05

14

9%

Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (2005-2013) © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

07

09

11

Quality of Place

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The City of Houston 2.1 million 600 sq. mi.

Baltimore 0.6 million 81 sq. mi.

Chicago 2.7 million 228 sq. mi.

Philadelphia 1.5 million 134 sq. mi.

Detroit 0.7 million 139 sq. mi.

15

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Quality of Place

The 10-county Houston metropolitan region 5.9 million 10,062 sq. mi.

New Jersey 8.8 million 8,729 sq. mi.

16

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Quality of Place

Housing preferences (2008-2012) "If you could choose where to live in the Houston area, which would you prefer? " A single-family home with a big yard, where you would need to drive almost everywhere you want to go.

47%

2012 2010 2008

A smaller home in a more urbanized area, within walking distance of shops and workplaces.

51%

58%

39% 36%

59% Don’t know/Can’t say

17

Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (2008-2013) © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Quality of Place

Neighborhood preferences (2007-2013) "If you could live anywhere in the Houston area, what sort of neighborhood would you prefer to live in?"

A single-family residential area An area with a mix of developments, including homes, shops and restaurants.

2013 2011 2009 2007 18

48% 50% 52%

50% 50% 47%

49% Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (2007-2013) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

47% Quality of Place

1978

Š Alex MacLean Quality of Place

2011

Š Alex MacLean Quality of Place

The Demographic Revolution

The number of documented U.S. immigrants, by decade (1820-2010)

From1492 to1965, 82% of all immigrants coming to America came from Europe.

After reform in 1965, 88% of all the new immigrants were non-Europeans.

12

10.5

Millions of immigrants 10

8.8

1930s Great Depression

8

1965

6

“Hart-Celler Act”

4

2

0.1 0 22

1924 “National Origins Quota Act”

0.5

1820s 1830s 1840s 1850s 1860s 1870s 1880s 1890s 1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Office of Immigration Statistics. © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Major U.S. immigrant cities

Boston San Francisco

Chicago

New York City Washington D.C.

Los Angeles

San Diego

Dallas Atlanta

Miami Houston

23

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The Demographic Revolution

The demographic transformations of Harris County

Population in Millions

4

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 7.7% 6.7%

3

4.1% 15.5% 2.1% 15.5%

2

0.8% 9.9%

0.3% 1

6.0% Asians 20.1%

19.8%

Latinos Blacks

Asians 19.7% Latinos Blacks

Asians 22.7% Latinos Blacks 19.1%

Asians Latinos 32.9% Blacks

18.2%

Asians

Asians Latinos 40.8%

Latinos

Blacks

18.4%

Blacks

Anglos 0 24

73.9% 1,243,258

Anglos 69.2%

1,741,912

Anglos

62.7%

2,409,547

Anglos

54.0%

2,818,199

Source: U.S. Census. Classifications based on Texas State Data Center Conventions. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Anglos 42.1% 3,400,578

33.0%

Anglos

4,092,459

The Demographic Revolution

The demographic changes in Fort Bend County and Montgomery County Fort Bend County 600,000

Montgomery County

1990 2000 2010 1990 20002010 19.0% 15.5 % 13.1%

300,000

6.5%

21.1%

19.5%

Asians 19.6% Latinos Blacks

20.3%

53.8% 0 225,421 25

Anglos

46.2% 354,452

Asians

Latinos Asians Latinos 21.1% Blacks Blacks

4.0%

23.7%

4.1% 2.5% 12.6% 3.4% 7.3% 4.2%

Anglos 36.2% Anglos 585,375

Source: U.S. Census. Classifications based on Texas State Data Center Conventions. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

1.0%

87.5% 182,201

Asians Latinos Blacks Anglos

81.4% 293,768

20.8%

Asians Latinos Blacks

Anglos

71.2% 455,746

The Demographic Revolution

Harris County total population

Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 26

1980

Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract.

Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The Demographic Revolution

Harris County total population

Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 27

1990

Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract.

Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The Demographic Revolution

Harris County total population

Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 28

2000

Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract.

Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The Demographic Revolution

Harris County total population

Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 29

2010

Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract.

Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The Demographic Revolution

Percent of the population by age group and ethnicity in Harris County in 2010 All others 79%

Non-Hispanic Whites 57%

43%

21%

0-4

30

5-9

10 - 14 15 - 19 20 - 24

25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64

Source: Hobby Center for the Study of Texas Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

65 +

The Demographic Revolution

Percent of the population by age group and ethnicity in the state of Texas in 2010 Non-Hispanic Whites 68%

All others 68%

32%

32%

0-4

31

5-9

10 - 14 15 - 19 20 - 24

25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64

Source: Hobby Center for the Study of Texas Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

65 +

The Demographic Revolution

Percent of the population by age group and ethnicity in the United States in 2010 Non-Hispanic Whites 80%

All Others 51% 49%

20%

0-4

32

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

Source: Hobby Center for the Study of Texas Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

The Demographic Revolution

Percent of the population by age group and ethnicity in the United States in 2050

All Others

Non-Hispanic Whites

63%

59%

42% 37%

0-4

33

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

Source: Hobby Center for the Study of Texas Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

The Demographic Revolution

Educational attainment by ethnicity (2003-2013 combined) Percent of respondents

Less than H.S. H.S. diploma

58%

Some college College degree Post-graduate 35%

32% 29%

24%

24%

22%

14%

24%

32%

31% 26%

28% 24%

22%

13%

13%

10%

9% 6%

3%

3%

12% 5% 2%

Asian Immigrants U.S.-born Anglos U.S.-born Blacks U.S.-born Latinos Latino Immigrants 34

Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (2003-2013) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The Demographic Revolution

Socioeconomic status among Latinos by time in the U.S. and by generation (1994-2013 combined)

Percent of Latino respondents <9 years 16%!

10-19 years 22%!

Household income greater than $35,000.

40%!

20+ years 2nd Generation

51%!

3rd Generation

54%!

39%!

<9 years

Has health insurance for self and family.

10-19 years

48%!

20+ years

63%!

2nd Generation

67%!

3rd Generation

<9 years

24%!

10-19 years

Owns the place where lives.

20+ years

3rd Generation

Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (1994-2013) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

49%!

68%!

2nd Generation

35

77%!

65%!

60%!

The Demographic Revolution

Assimilation among Latinos by time in the U.S. and by generation (1994-2013 combined)

Percent of Latino respondents <9 …

The interview was conducted in English, rather than Spanish.

15%!

10-19 …

22%!

20+ years

39%!

2nd Generation

84%!

3rd Generation

90%!

<9 years

Respondent thinks of self as primarily Hispanic.

85%!

10-19 years

79%!

20+ years

51%!

2nd Gen…

28%!

3rd G… 18%!

Three closest friends in Houston are all Hispanics.

<9 years

90%!

10-19 years

89%!

20+ years

77%!

2nd Generation 3rd Generation

36

Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (1994-2013) © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

57%!

41%!

The Demographic Revolution

The shift in attitudes toward immigrants during the past four years (2009-2013) Percent of respondents agreeing 90%

83% 68% 55%

64% 66%

71%

74% 61%

55%

51%

For: granting a path to legal citizenship.

Admit about the same or more legal immigrants.

47%

The new immigration mostly strengthens American culture.

0% 09 37

11

13 09

10

Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (2009-2013) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

11

12

13 09

11

The Demographic Revolution

13

Interethnic romantic relationships by age (2007 and 2011 combined)

Anglo respondents who report having been in a romantic relationship with someone who was not Anglo.

38

57%

58%

50%

39%

28%

13%

18-29

30-39

40-49

50-59

60-69

70+

Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (2007, 2011) Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The Demographic Revolution

Percent of Anglo respondents agreeing, by age

Ethnic attitudes by age among Anglos (2007–2013 combined)

The increasing ethnic diversity brought about by immigration is a “good thing,” rather than a “bad thing.”

18-29

71%!

30-44

61%!

45-59

57%!

60+

48%!

18-29 Grant illegal immigrants a path to legal citizenship, if they speak English and have no criminal record.

74%!

30-44

65%!

45-59

60%!

60+

The increasing immigration into the U.S. today mostly “strengthens,” rather than “threatens,” American culture.

18-29

Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (2007-2013) © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

68%!

30-44

43%!

45-59

42%!

60+

39

55%!

35%!

The Demographic Revolution

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