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Comment

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Glory days

As the first decade of service from the 787 nears an end, can Boeing overcome sluggish demand and production snags to revive its early magic experience with the Dreamliner?

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oeing’s 787 is about to pass a significant milestone in its already remarkable programme history, with 26 October to bring the 10th anniversary of the Dreamliner’s entry into revenue service.

With the passing of time it is perhaps hard to remember now the fervour with which every step of the revolutionary twinjet’s development and production was followed after the programme launched in 2004 with a 50-aircraft order from All Nippon Airways (ANA).

Every schedule slip and technical snag was seized upon by the world’s media, which sensed the importance of Seattle’s latest and greatest product.

Beyond its cutting-edge adoption of composite materials and reliance on a global supply chain, the Dreamliner offered something new for passengers, with a more pleasant onboard experience thanks to a cabin pressure altitude capable of reducing fatigue and a wider view of the world from larger windows.

Its performance has been closely scrutinised since that first operational flight by ANA, and teething problems such as the onboard lithium-ion battery fire which affected a Japan Airlines jet in 2013 grabbed many headlines.

But over the years, the broader level of interest in the Dreamliner has waned, as many travellers have been able to experience the type first-hand and other stories – such as the troubles affecting its 737 Max stablemate – have come to dominate.

Boeing has now delivered more than 1,000 787s across a three-model family: a remarkable achievement for a widebody offering which is capable of opening up new long-range point-to-point routes or, in the case of Japan, even serving domestic pairings.

The company has an expected firm backlog of another 421 Dreamliners, representing many more years of production and assembly in South Charleston, North Carolina.

But even before the Covid-19 pandemic, Boeing was facing sluggish demand for widebody products, prompting it to slash monthly output. More recently, quality control issues affecting aircraft finishing have twice halted production, and while back under way, build work now takes place at an unspecified rate of below five per month: down from a programme high of 14.

Due in no small part to the pandemic’s effect, just 53 examples were handed over last year – down from a record 158 in 2019 – and in

the first seven months of this year only 14 were delivered.

In an unwelcome parallel with the 737 Max programme during the single-aisle’s grounding period, 787 delivery delays stretching beyond the 12-month mark could open the way for customers pressured by the global health crisis and weakened long-haul travel demand to cancel orders without penalty, eating into the production backlog.

Is this a temporary crisis for the Dreamliner, and can Boeing revive its stunning past performance with the type once the industry can break free of the pandemic?

Naturally, the airframer believes that its 787 remains “the plane of the future”, but some are calling for it to revitalise the product, perhaps by developing a new variant optimised for the regional travel sector.

Viewed against the market capitalisation-bruising impact of the 737 Max’s difficulties, it is unlikely that the Dreamliner will again cause anything like the headaches of its heavily-scrutinised service introduction.

For Boeing, the priority now must be to resolve any lingering production and quality control issues and get back to delivering a transformational experience for airlines and passengers alike. ◗ See p60 October 2021 Flight International 3

In focus Delta makes the difference 6 Rivals set for NMH contest 8 Joint vision key to Tempest 10 Air India Express captain did not respond to go-around call 12 Bombardier’s new era 16

Northrop eyes loyal wingman 18 Flightcrew failed to notice A318’s levelling 20 RAF takes lead on Protector 22 Racer nears final straight 24 Ryanair’s pilot push 26

Communications breakdown led to runway incursion 28 A320 stall-protection activated after idle-thrust handover 29 Kabul airlift buoys Airbus 30 New Challenger 34

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A spin around town Eve Urban Air Mobility is aiming for service entry in 2026

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Dream start?

Regulars Comment 3 Best of the rest 36 Straight & Level 74 Letters 76 Jobs 81 Women in aviation 82 4 Flight International October 2021

Contents

In depth Betting on BACE 40 Distance prospects 42 Demand for the biggest business jets is rising Vision of success 46 Cirrus has raised the bar with the G2+ model of its Vision Jet

Green shoots 52 BACE will place more emphasis than ever before on the environment and sustainability Ready to rise? 56 Air taxi developers plan for certification and service entry

A dream first decade? 60 787’s first 10 years of service have represented a major learning curve for Boeing Pilot re-shortage 64 Trained flightcrew are in high demand in the USA once again

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46 October 2021 Flight International 5

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Delta makes the difference US carriers hoped summer leisure demand would also bring a return of business passengers, but Covid-19 and a complex transatlantic market has forced a downgrade in expectations In September, Atlanta-based Delta’s business travel was just 40% of 2019 levels – roughly unchanged since the summer, Bastian says.

Some business users have returned, but “they are not travelling in the volumes necessary yet to get our business back where it needs to be”.

Delta had previously predicted third-quarter revenue would be 3035% lower than the same period of 2019, but now says this will likely be at the “lower end” of that range.

American Airlines too has scaled back its third-quarter revenue estimate: the figure will now be 2428% less than in 2019, not 20% less, as previously predicted.

American was profitable in July, but results from August and September are “trending below forecast”, says chief financial officer Derek Kerr. “We expected the recovery would be choppy and unpredictable,” he notes.

Jon Hemmerdinger Tampa

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he second half of 2021 was meant to bring much-needed positive momentum to the US airline industry.

Executives had predicted that leisure travel demand would rebound in the summer, heralding a broad return of business travel in the autumn.

On the plus side, the first part of that prediction proved prescient, even understated; on some days, the number of air travellers moving through US airports neared levels last seen in the summer of 2019, prior to the coronavirus crisis.

But the recovery in business travel has not materialised. The Delta variant of Covid-19 currently sweeping through the USA has caused business travellers to postpone getting back on the road, in turn forcing airlines to pare back financial projections.

6 Flight International October 2021

3,900 Total aircraft in service with major US airlines as of September 2021, representing 87% of combined fleet

Spirit Airlines

Weaker bookings “Eight airlines updated Q3 guidance for the impact of the Delta variant on bookings and cancellations,” points out a research note from financial firm Jefferies. “While July trended better than expected, August started to see headwinds from the weaker bookings and close-in cancellations.”

Unfortunately, Covid-19 has shown itself to be a resilient foe, and as summer ended, US airlines – one after the other – reported the recovery had slowed.

“We were anticipating, as we got into the post-Labor Day travel [period], seeing a step-up in business travel,” Delta Air Lines chief executive Ed Bastian said on 9 September during a transportation conference hosted by investment bank Cowen.

Instead, “many of those have pushed [travel plans] back into the latter part of the year or early next year”, he says. “The delay is in the 90- [to] 120-day timeframe.”

Domestic US carriers such as Spirit are now operating nearly all their jets

Likewise, United Airlines has seen a “deceleration” in third-quarter bookings, and forecasts revenue for the period will be down 33% from the same period of 2019.

JetBlue Airways has also adjusted its estimate, believing revenue for the July-September period will be 6-9% lower than the third quarter of 2019, changed from a previously estimated 4-9% decline.

“Given the recent uptick in Covid-19 case counts, JetBlue has experienced some softness in bookings and an increase in customer cancellations, which has impacted revenue for the third quarter,” the New York-based carrier adds.

Stalled recovery Airline executives are quick to point a finger at the Delta variant as the reason the recovery has stalled.

But carriers have also been hamstrung by political forces – including travel restrictions, in particular the USA’s ongoing denial of entry to European travellers. While much of Europe has been open to American travellers, only in late September did the administration of president Joe Biden say it would reciprocate from November.

AirTeamImages

Airlines Recovery

Delta’s business travel is currently at around 40% of 2019 levels

US carriers’ return to service Carrier

Alaska Airlines Allegiant Air American Airlines Delta Air Lines Frontier Airlines Hawaiian Airlines JetBlue Airways Southwest Airlines Spirit Airlines United Airlines Total

In service

Storage

Percent in service

Total

200 106 846 764 111 59 271 693 164 662 3,876

29 10 120 139 2 9 63 4 198 574

87% 91% 88% 85% 100% 97% 97% 92% 98% 77% 87%

229 116 966 903 111 61 280 756 168 860 4,450

Source: Cirium fleet data. Note: As of 10 September

In July, Airlines for America had joined many other industry groups in releasing a plan for the “safe reopening of international travel”. The plan urged the US government to grant entry to vaccinated travellers, including those from the EU. “It is time, if not past the time, for the US government to… reopen travel between the US and low-risk countries,” the letter said.

Though full recovery remains elusive, US carriers have returned most of their aircraft to active duty after storing jets due to the pandemic.

In September, the 10 major US airlines had nearly 3,900 jets in service – 87% of their fleets, with

the balance in storage, according to Cirium data. That is a major improvement from the industry’s nadir in May 2020, when those airlines had about 1,900 jets in service – just 43% of the fleet.

Carriers including Allegiant Air, Hawaiian Airlines, JetBlue and Spirit Airlines are now operating nearly all their jets. Likewise, the 10 largest US regional airlines (by fleet count) now have 81% of their aircraft flying, up from 60% in May 2020.

Although the end of the quarter is shrouded in uncertainty, summer 2021 was a bonanza for carriers.

It was around March that the sector began reporting promising

signs. Leisure travel bookings were up; revenue intake accelerated.

The May-to-June quarter was not anywhere near as good, financially speaking, as in 2019. But it was miles better than during 2020.

American, for instance, logged $7.5 billion in second-quarter 2021 revenue – down 37% on the same period in 2019, but nearly five times the 2020 figure.

Resource constraints As demand rebounded, airlines raced to get more jets in service – and to refill employment roles eroded by staff cuts, many of them voluntary measures. Some carriers met the challenge better than others; American and Spirit, for instance, proved themselves somewhat unprepared, having to cancel hundreds of flights due partly to resource constraints.

Airports were packed as holiday-starved Americans jetted to popular domestic vacation spots.

And two new US leisure carriers started flying just in time to tap swelling demand: Avelo Airlines, founded by former Allegiant and United executive Andrew Levy, and Breeze Airways, the latest project from David Neeleman. The carriers see opportunity in flying to smaller cities, some of which have lost other air services. ◗ October 2021 Flight International 7

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Airbus Helicopters has promised to build its H175M in the UK if selected

Airbus Helicopters

Rivals ready for NMH contest The continued absence of a formal requirement to replace the UK’s aged Puma helicopters did not stop rival bidders from touting their products at London’s DSEI show Dominic Perry London

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lthough the requirements for the UK military’s New Medium Helicopter (NMH) fleet have yet to be finalised, two of the main contenders for the competition used the 14-17 September DSEI show in London to burnish their domestic manufacturing credentials.

The UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) announced in March that the NMH was to replace the Royal Air Force’s Puma HC2 transports from mid-decade, along with three other types operated by the British Army.

But while matching the 7.4t Puma’s capabilities will be key, all potential bidders are acutely aware that in the post-Brexit and post-Covid-19 environment bringing value to ‘UK plc’ is likely to be a high priority. That change of emphasis was signalled by the MoD’s Defence and Security Industrial Strategy publication that accompanied its recent equipment review.

Likely candidates for the NMH requirement are the Airbus Helicopters H175M, Leonardo

8 Flight International October 2021

Helicopters’ AW149, and Sikorsky’s UH-60M/S-70i Black Hawk.

Leonardo Helicopters is the UK’s only rotorcraft manufacturer, with a long-established factory in Yeovil in southwest England. Should the AW149 be selected as the NMH, the airframer promises to establish an assembly line at the site, building the super-medium-type for the UK and export customers.

Local production Airbus Helicopters is anxious that the status quo is not maintained, however. Earlier this year it promised it would build the H175M in the UK, but gave no details on the proposed location of the production site.

Speaking on 10 September, Colin James, managing director of Airbus Helicopters UK, said that basing the final assembly line at Airbus’s Broughton site in North Wales will allow the helicopter division to “benefit from all the commercial manufacturing and supply chain knowledge from the bigger Airbus group”.

He anticipates that a final assembly line for the H175M could be

established within 12 months of a contract signature.

While Leonardo Helicopters has a larger UK domestic presence than its rival, Airbus points to its overall group presence in the country: in 2020, turnover stood at £3.9 billion ($5.3 billion), with a workforce of 11,200 across more than 25 sites, including 7,000 in Broughton.

James notes that having another advanced helicopter manufacturing facility in the UK would allow the country to take a significant role in NATO’s emerging Next Generation Rotorcraft Capability project (see box opposite). Currently involving seven European nations, this is seeking to develop a cleansheet military helicopter to enter use from the mid-2030s.

Although initially building H175Ms for the UK, James stresses that the Broughton site would also assemble examples for the export market, which he believes could number around 250 aircraft over the coming years.

Leonardo Helicopters, meanwhile, has bolstered the domestic supply chain for its platform under the “Team AW149 UK” banner,

Helicopters Requirement

Team players New joiners to Team AW149 UK include Abaco Systems, Aerco, Chelton (formerly Cobham Aerospace Connectivity), Ford Aerospace, Forged Solutions Group, Incora, LFD, RDDS Avionics and Techtest.

Sikorsky, for its part, points out that its UH-60M is the only “combat-proven” helicopter being proposed for the UK requirement. Although vague about its plans, due to the absence of a formal set of requirements, the company does not rule out completing the rotorcraft in the UK – potentially in collaboration with a rival bidder – if selected.

Robert Mathers, Sikorsky regional manager, Europe and Eurasia, strategy and business development, acknowledges the “strong pressure for UK industrial participation in any helicopter procurement”.

He notes Sikorsky has “produced several hundred helicopters in the UK at Yeovil” in the past, under an

NATO rotorcraft project nears concept phase approval An expanded group of seven NATO member countries has thrashed out the wording of an agreement to allow early work to start on a cleansheet medium-class military helicopter to enter use in the mid-2030s.

Negotiations covering the text of the legally-binding memorandum of understanding for the concept phase of the Next Generation Rotorcraft Capability (NGRC) project were concluded on 8 September, NATO says.

Participants in the two-day process included “NATO staff, as well as legal advisors and experts from seven nations”, the alliance adds. “We are looking to have the document signed during the first half of 2022 in order to kick off the concept phase.”

In November 2020, France, Germany, Greece, Italy and the UK signed a letter of intent signalling their participation in the NGRC project. They have now been joined by the Netherlands and Spain.

NATO earlier this year released details of the “required attributes” for the NGRC platform, which include a common baseline airframe for a variety of missions.

“We would like to get away from multiple variants of the same basic airframe as far as possible,” Pat Collins, joint chair of the NATO vertical lift capability group, told the Royal Aeronautical Society’s annual European Rotorcraft Forum on 8 September.

NATO analysis shows there are almost 1,000 helicopters in the 11-15t maximum take-off weight range operated by non-US NATO members which will need replacing by 2050, although Collins believes the eventual number could be “very much higher”.

The new rotorcraft should be “much more cost-effective than current fleets”, with a fly-away cost of no more than €35 million ($41.3 million) and an operating cost below €10,000 per flight hour. An availability target of 75% for the operational/forward fleet has also been set.

NATO is seeking a cruise speed of 220kt (407km/h), which would need to be achieved through an “advanced configuration”. However, it has also set a minimum speed threshold of 180kt, which Collins says could allow more conventional designs to be offered.

Around 50 companies with an interest in the NGRC project attended industry day events staged in Luxembourg on 21-22 September.

agreement that saw the then-Westland Helicopters – a forerunner of Leonardo Helicopters – manufacture several types under licence.

“We hope to be able to give [the MoD] a combat-proven, reliable platform that also has an economic benefit for the UK,” Mathers says.

The Royal Air Force’s Puma HC2 transports are set to be retired

Ian Sherriff/Shutterstock

which “represents a cross-section of the best in British engineering and manufacturing”, says its UK managing director, Nick Whitney.

With the type’s rotor blades and transmission already made in Yeovil, it is aiming to increase the proportion of UK content to 60%, including the final assembly activity. The domestic value of through-life support will be at a similar level, it says.

Work placed with 70 companies would represent around half of the 60% goal, says Mike Morrisoe, head of UK campaigns at the airframer.

“We are looking at further equipment to onshore,” he adds. “We have a list of candidate items and there will be more focused supply chain engagement sessions within the next few months.”

Sikorsky could look to replicate its proposal for the Romanian ministry of the interior, which would see Black Hawks partially built at its PZL Mielec subsidiary in Poland and then shipped to the customer nation for local completion.

However, with the Mielec production line already assembling the S-70i variant of the Black Hawk, plus Turkish Aerospace also able to sell its licence-built T-70 internationally, it is uncertain what export opportunities there would be for UK-produced examples.

Regardless, Mathers says the Black Hawk is the strongest contender from an operational perspective. “Just because you paint something green does not make it a military helicopter,” he says – a sideswipe at the two rival platforms, both of which have strong commonality with their civil siblings.

“The Black Hawk was designed from the very beginning as a military helicopter.” ◗ October 2021 Flight International 9

Defence Development Sixth-generation fighter is to replace Typhoon in service from 2035

Partners on UK-led future combat air system project say new collaboration model will avoid workshare duplication of past Craig Hoyle & Dominic Perry London

RAF’s director future combat air, said during a panel discussion at the DSEI exhibition in London on 15 September.

“We are focused within our programme and our partnership on freedom of action, freedom of modification and sovereign control. Now we need to understand how to deliver to cost, time and capability.”

Moreton confirms that former US Air Force aircraft development and acquisition chief Will Roper has been engaged by Team Tempest, “to ask challenging questions of us”.

A clearer indication of the proposed FCAS mix will be outlined when the current phase concludes. “In late 2024 we will go to our governments and say ‘This is what we can deliver: this is the capability’,” Moreton says.

The UK government’s advanced fighter technology relationship with Japan could also open further opportunities to expand the current three-nation FCAS framework.

“Team Tempest must be open to future partnerships, so everyone

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aintaining momentum on the UK-led Tempest future combat air system (FCAS) programme will require the adoption of a joint venture culture across its current three, and potentially additional partner nations, according to industry and military officials.

Michael Christie, director of FCAS at BAE Systems Air, says the activity – which also involves the defence ministries and industry champions of Italy and Sweden – will advance as “a single programme at multiple sites”, instead of replicating the duplicated structure of previous multinational ventures.

“We are going to create a new culture, not battle for who is best,” Christie says. This will be achieved by establishing a joint venture model; each of the parties will contribute its “best capabilities”.

Launched in 2018, the project aims to introduce a sixth-generation Tempest fighter to Royal Air Force (RAF) service from 2035, along with supporting elements such as an unmanned loyal wingman platform, precision-guided weapons and an underpinning combat cloud network.

Work is progressing within a recently launched concept and assessment phase, with a new programme office structure also having been introduced.

“We have to transform in every way within our enterprise,” Air Commodore Jonny Moreton, the

10 Flight International October 2021

feels that they are getting significant value,” Christie says.

Meanwhile, 2Excel Aviation has detailed a conversion activity contracted by Leonardo that will see it transform a Boeing 757-200 into a flying testbed in support of the programme. Formerly operated

by TUI and currently in storage at Lasham airfield in Hampshire, the 1995-built twinjet (G-BYAW) has been dubbed Excalibur.

The testbed is needed to evaluate and mature a suite of next-generation sensors, including a proposed Multi Function Radio Frequency System radar, plus communications and electronic warfare equipment, “in a real environment at the same time”, says Leonardo UK capability manager Martin Downes.

Internal modifications will include the installation of about a dozen operator stations and potentially a “representative-type cockpit” to test how sensor data is presented to the pilot. Utilities such as power, cooling, racking, computing and data recording will be added. Z

Excalibur will help assess next-generation sensors and electronic warfare equipment

Leonardo

BAE Systems

Joint vision key to Tempest success

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Air India Express 737 crash captain did not respond to go-around call Twinjet overran after landing long in rain and with tailwind as crew maintained unstabilised approach to Kozhikode David Kaminski-Morrow London

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he first officer of an Air India Express Boeing 737800 unsuccessfully tried to convince the captain to abort an unstable second approach to Kozhikode before the jet landed long in a tailwind and fatally overran, an inquiry has revealed.

Investigators believe the captain was under “misplaced motivation” pressure to land at Kozhikode on 7 August last year because he had been rostered at the “last minute” to operate another flight the next day, and the airline – owing to “faulty” human resources planning – had too few captains available at the airport.

India’s aircraft accident investigation bureau states that this situation was exacerbated by a steep cockpit authority gradient. The captain had close to 11,000h total time, against fewer than 2,000h for the first officer.

The captain was also experienced in operating to Kozhikode, with 36 flights to the airport in the previous year, which probably resulted in “overconfidence” and “complacency”, says the inquiry, while the first officer demonstrated a “meek and unassertive demeanour” in the captain’s presence.

While carrying out the initial approach to the wet runway in rain – during which the captain’s windscreen wiper failed – the crew executed a missed approach to runway 28, because it was not in sight at minimums.

As the first officer was looking to set the aircraft up for a second approach, an Air India flight departing for Delhi requested to take off from the opposite-direction runway 10 – even though the prevailing winds favoured runway 28.

Alternative runway Air traffic control asked the Air India Express pilots whether they would also like to use runway 10 for the arrival.

“Despite the unserviceable wiper on the captain’s side, [the crew] did not consider a diversion to an alternate airfield,” the inquiry says. After receiving weather information

from air traffic control, including the wind direction, the crew accepted a runway 10 approach.

The pilots did not carry out a mandatory calculation of required landing distance, despite the wet runway and tailwind.

Cockpit-voice recorder information shows the captain had been apprehensive over the reliability of the windshield wiper, stating: “I hope it works.” Although the wiper appeared to start functioning, it operated at a slower speed than that selected.

The crew had often operated in Indian monsoon conditions, says the inquiry, but the captain opted to make the second approach to Kozhikode “without any risk assessment” even though the jet had sufficient fuel to divert to alternate airports in close proximity.

It says this amounted to a “gross violation” of standard operating

“Despite the unserviceable wiper on the captain’s side, [the crew] did not consider a diversion to an alternate airfield” Indian aircraft accident investigation bureau

Cocktail of anti-diabetic drugs may have impaired captain’s performance One possibility raised by investigators is that the captain’s decision-making might have been impaired by hypoglycaemia, a reduction in blood-sugar levels.

The Indian aircraft accident investigation bureau says the captain was diabetic and was treating this with a prescribed drug, metformin, which the inquiry describes as “acceptable” for pilots to take because it carries only a “minimal risk” of causing serious hypoglycaemia.

12 Flight International October 2021

But circumstantial evidence points to his also taking “multiple” non-prescribed anti-diabetic drugs which, the inquiry says, could probably have caused “subtle cognitive deficits” as a consequence of mild hypoglycaemia, contributing to “errors in complex decisionmaking” and a susceptibility to errors of perception.

The inquiry says the captain was in possession, in his bag and on his person, of several types

of anti-diabetic drug – including glimepiride, pioglitazone, and dapagliflozin – alongside the prescribed metformin.

“These drugs were in blister packs and a few tablets had been consumed from each strip,” it states, adding that toxicology analysis revealed the presence of both metformin and pioglitazone in the blood.

While glimepiride was not detected, the inquiry points out that the efficacy of this drug in

Accident Investigation

autothrottle. The pitch attitude reduced and the 737’s descent rate started to increase, reaching up to 1,500ft/min.

Warning system Analysis shows the approach “soon became unstabilised”, says the inquiry, with the rate of descent and a deviation below the glideslope exceeding criteria. The ground-proximity warning system twice cautioned over the glideslope but while the captain increased pitch, momentarily slowing the descent, the rate subsequently began increasing again.

The 737 crossed the runway threshold at 92ft with a tailwind component of more than 14kt (26km/h), as well as a crosswind component of 6kt.

lowering blood sugar persists even at low concentrations. The Bengaluru aviation medicine testing institute could not check for dapagliflozin, as it was a newer drug.

Cabin crew told the inquiry that the captain “routinely” consumed only specially-prepared “bland, low-calorie” meals during flights and while staying at a hotel.

Investigators add that, by the time of the approach to Kozhikode following the service from Dubai, the captain had been fasting for around 5h.

“It is an established fact that a diabetic individual, on multiple anti-diabetic drugs, is susceptible to hypoglycaemia,” it says.

Although investigators found no evidence from the cockpit-voice recorder of overt incapacitation of the captain – both pilots were conscious and speech was not slurred – the inquiry points out that mild hypoglycaemia might not produce overt symptoms, but could show up in cognitive effects such as mental confusion, light-headedness and sluggish psychomotor response.

“All this can result in decrement of flying performance, which deteriorates further with the complexity of the task at hand,” says the investigation. “Complex decision-making is [known to be] disrupted during hypoglycaemia.”

Air India Express had no aerospace medicine specialists, says the inquiry, despite a 2011 advisory from the Indian civil aviation regulator that carriers should employ such personnel.

Neither the captain nor the first officer were found to have alcohol in their systems.

Twenty-one of the 190 people on board – including both pilots – were killed

Shijith Sreedhar/AP/Shutterstock

procedures, but the first officer – confronted by the steep authority gradient – “did not give any input” about the situation.

The aircraft captured the ILS glideslope at 2,200ft and was cleared for landing, but the captain delayed the flap selection until 1,700ft, opting eventually for ‘flap 30’ rather than ‘flap 40’ owing to turbulence.

“This [flap position] decision in itself was justified but the delayed flap approach was not correct,” the inquiry says. It also says the ‘flap 30’ landing was “at variance” with the airline’s standard procedures, which recommended landing with ‘flap 40’ at Kozhikode, especially when the available landing distance was marginal.

The crew disengaged the autopilot at 500ft but not the

Application of manual thrust – counter to autothrottle commands – gradually reduced the sink rate but increased the aircraft’s airspeed, with the engine thrust still rising even as the 737 floated at 20ft at a point nearly 430m (1,400ft) beyond the threshold.

Only when the 737 was more than 915m beyond the threshold – on a table-top runway that is 2,700m in length – was the engine thrust reduced.

Cockpit-voice recordings show the first officer made a couple of attempts to draw the captain’s attention to the unstable approach and, at 1,280m beyond the threshold, called for a go-around.

But this was not heeded by the captain. The first officer did not take over the controls and, as a result of the long float, the aircraft touched down at 1,350m – halfway along the runway – at an airspeed of 150kt but a groundspeed of 165kt.

Reverse-thrust was commanded 3s later but the reversers were then stowed “before [they] could take any effect”, says the inquiry, only being deployed again 15s after touchdown.

The captain was largely unresponsive during the landing roll, failing to acknowledge any of the standard calls from the first officer.

Unable to decelerate in time, the aircraft overran at 85kt, travelled through the runway-end safety area, and collided with the ILS antenna and a fence before falling more than 30m down the table-top embankment and encountering the perimeter road.

Twenty-one of the 190 occupants, including both pilots, were fatally injured in the accident, while another 76 received serious injuries. ◗

October 2021 Flight International 13

Airline Technology Company has backed future single-aisle study with Wright Electric

EasyJet sets course for net zero Chief executive Johan Lundgren says carrier is already looking beyond interim measures to hit its 2050 sustainability target Mark Pilling Toulouse

Wright Electric

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ow-cost carrier EasyJet is stressing the development of zero-emission aircraft as the solution for the narrowbody airliner of the future to meet its commitment of achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

“We are very optimistic about zero emissions flight for the future – we can see there is a credible pathway,” David Morgan, the carrier’s director of flight operations, said during a Pioneering Sustainable Aerospace summit hosted by Airbus in Toulouse on 21 September.

EasyJet will use sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) as part of its strategy to reduce emissions, but “we can’t see SAF as a long-term solution for short-haul aviation”, chief executive Johan Lundgren said during the same event.

Lundgren notes that SAF is an “offset mechanism”, as it has “similar qualities to kerosene when you burn it”, and he believes that too much focus on SAF could “hinder progress” to zero-emission aircraft.

“This does not mean EasyJet is anti-SAF at all”, says Morgan, adding that it has an important role to play as one of the pathways to net-zero emissions – but he describes it as “an interim measure”.

The airline will fly with SAF where it is mandated in Europe, with operations in France being an early application as new SAF usage rules are introduced there in 2022.

Barry Biffle, chief executive of US low-fare carrier Frontier Airlines, speaking via video link during the summit, agreed that SAFs have a role to play on the pathway to net-zero, but says his carrier is focused today on improving fuel efficiency via its investment in new Airbus A320neos and by encouraging operational efficiencies in the air traffic control system. He likens SAFs to the marketing of clean coal or filtered cigarettes.

EasyJet is in talks with SAF producers about offtakes, says Morgan, who adds it is “important that we test the supply chain”.

Proven technology The carrier is calling for investment and support for the development of zero-emission aircraft, with hydrogen as the key fuel opportunity because it is a proven technology compared to that of batteries, says Lundgren. “True zero-emission aircraft are way more exciting than SAFs,” he says.

EasyJet is convinced that zero-emission aircraft are essential, Morgan says, because “we believe burning carbon in any form will be unacceptable in the future”.

The company has been working with US-based Wright Electric on a single-aisle concept named Wright 1 as part of its investigation of future technology.

There are significant challenges and questions with transitioning from a conventionally-powered aircraft fleet to one with zero-emission

aircraft, and for a period operating with both types and the complexities that means, Lundgren says. For instance, it could be that zero-emission aircraft are introduced on a base-by-base, route-by-route basis.

With a zero-emission aircraft unlikely to be in service any time before 2035, EasyJet’s growth in this decade and beyond will come from adding further current-generation narrowbodies. “It’s more likely there will be more orders for traditional technologies,” says Lundgren, before the carrier makes its first order for a future type.

Lundgren used the summit to urge industry and government to work closely together to deliver on the zero-emission technology needed to transform the industry over the coming decade and beyond.

“This is an exciting time for the industry, where true zero-emission flight is within reach,” he says.

“Hydrogen- and electric-powered aircraft are already flying, with companies like Airbus committed to scaling the technology for commercial flights and aiming for entry into service in the 2030s. So we all need to play our role to ensure that the infrastructure is ready for these exciting new aircraft.

“But the industry can’t do it alone,” Lundgren says. “We need governments to help the industry meet ambitious emissions reduction goals by championing financial and regulatory support for green technologies and investments in zero-emission aircraft.” ◗ October 2021 Flight International 15

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Updated Challenger 3500 will enter service in second half of 2022

Jon Hemmerdinger Montreal

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16 Flight International October 2021

Bombardier chief powers into new era

Bombardier

ombardier’s chief executive has a relaxed, engaging style. He is optimistic, and leans forward in his chair when he speaks. He smiles as he discusses the company’s recent transformation, which he insists will leave it leaner, more focused and financially secure.

Eric Martel took Bombardier’s top job in March 2020, succeeding Alain Bellemare and arriving as the pandemic cloud descended.

During the past 18 months, he has overseen the final stages of a yearslong restructuring that has left the company focused exclusively on selling and servicing business jets.

The transformation will be close to complete early next year, when production of the Learjet family ends. And although Martel declines to specify where its engineering heft might next be deployed, he says the company is evaluating several potential new jets.

“We’re at least looking at… four or five possibilities,” he told FlightGlobal during a 13 September interview. “Eventually, we’re going to say, ‘It’s this one’, and we’re going to put the entire company behind it.”

Bombardier’s move away from everything not business jets began before Martel took the reins. After struggling for years under financial strain brought about by the CSeries development programme, it handed majority control of the now-A220 to Airbus in 2018.

It sold the Dash 8 turboprop programme to Longview Aviation Capital in 2019, and last year divested its CRJ regional jet activities to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and its aerostructures manufacturing business to Spirit AeroSystems.

The divestitures were completed with the January 2021 sale of its rail business to Alstom.

The moves left Bombardier as a “pure-play” business jet company – but Martel was not done.

In February, Bombardier announced a new restructuring: it would end Learjet production, concentrate aircraft completions work in Montreal, cut 1,600 jobs (mostly office workers) and reduce its industrial footprint – changes aimed at saving hundreds of millions of dollars annually.

Efficiency improvements and the end of CRJ production left

Now the head of a business jet-only manufacturer, Eric Martel is looking to build for the future with a streamlined portfolio, while also developing an enhanced global support network Bombardier with too much space in Montreal, Martel says. The company is divesting land and buildings at its “Plant 1” manufacturing site in the Saint-Laurent suburb, where it produces Global and Challenger components. It may retain just 40% of its current footprint at the site.

Under construction The company intends to use proceeds from the sales to help finance its new Global production facility, now under construction at Toronto Pearson International airport.

The decision to wind down the Learjet programme stemmed from the simple fact that Bombardier’s medium-cabin Challenger-series jets and large-cabin Global family generate 90% of its business jet revenue, Martel says.

“Learjet was a smaller piece” in a “more-competitive, more-crowded” market, he adds. “When I have $1 to invest, where do I put that dollar?

Today, it’s pretty clear… it’s either on the Global, either on the Challenger, or in the service business.”

But Bombardier insists it will continue to make good use of its Learjet facilities and staff in Kansas.

“Wichita has a lot of talented people,” says Martel. “We are keeping the workforce busy.”

Bombardier plans to “pivot” the Wichita site into a Learjet centre of excellence – an aftermarket hub for the roughly 2,000 examples still flying, says Chris Debergh, vice-president of OEM parts and services.

The company is transitioning Learjet production hangars into service bays and expanding Wichita’s aftermarket capabilities: this will give it capacity to also serve Challengers and Globals, he says.

Wichita will remain home to Bombardier’s flight-test programme and its special-mission aircraft work.

The reshuffle aligns with Bombardier’s broader goal of expanding its aftermarket business. It aims for such activity to generate 27% of revenues by 2025 – around $2 billion, up from $1.2 billion in 2019.

But in order to hit that goal, the company must capture about half

Interview Eric Martel

of all Learjet, Challenger and Global aftermarket work.

“It’s about bringing jets back home to the OEM,” says Jean-Christophe Gallagher, executive vice-president of services, support and strategy. “That [is] a direct consequence of us having the necessary space, manpower and, obviously, the expertise.”

Bombardier plans to increase its aftermarket hangar space from about 186,000sq m (2 million sq ft) today to 279,000sq m. It has expanded its presence in locations like Opa-locka in Florida, Berlin, Dubai, London, Melbourne in Australia, and Singapore. Its aftermarket workforce is set to rise from 2,500 people today to near 3,000 by 2022.

“We are into a massive recruitment campaign around the world for technicians,” Gallagher says.

The business jet industry, like the broader aerospace sector, sagged as Covid-19 took hold last year. But demand has since returned, leaving Martel optimistic.

“We’ve seen a trend [of] more people flying business” jets, he says, in part due to airlines slashing their schedules during the pandemic.

“And we believe it’s going to stay.”

In August, Martel described Bombardier’s second-quarter results as “exceptional on all fronts”, with

improved revenue, profitability and sales – and the company upped its 2021 revenue expectation by $200 million, to more than $5.8 billion.

Demand has likewise buoyed the used-aircraft market, to where only 3-4% of the global fleet is up for sale, says Martel. Previously, he had not seen that figure below 7%.

“The other day, I was trying to find a Challenger 350 for a customer – there [were] three for sale in the entire world,” he says. “And they’re selling at a very high price.”

That anecdote suggests that Bombardier may have perfectly timed the July launch of its “Certified pre-owned aircraft programme”. The airframer has long brokered used jets, but the new endeavour marks its official entry into the business of buying, fixing up and selling pre-owned jets.

This “fixing up” goes well beyond a bit of maintenance and a shine, says Chris Milligan, the company’s vice-president of pre-owned aircraft services. Rather, Bombardier makes the jets “look and feel new”, with fresh paint, refurbished cabins, updated avionics and connectivity systems, and a one-year warranty.

By the end of September, the company expected to have delivered four certified pre-owned Challengers, and one Global.

“The majority of our R&D spending is focused on how… we get an airplane flying with much less [carbon] emissions” Bombardier

Eric Martel Chief executive, Bombardier

In recent years, well before the decision to shutter Learjet production, Bombardier’s business aircraft division had been pumping much of its resources into its larger jets.

It brought the $75 million, 7,700nm (14,200km)-range Global 7500 to market in 2018, and achieved certifications the same year for its 5,900nm-range Global 5500 and 6,600nm-capable Global 6500.

On 13 September, the company revealed that it is updating its Challenger 350 to a new 3500-standard, to enter service in the second half of 2022.

New product “There’ll be a time [when] we’ll say, ‘OK, the market is ready [for] a new product,’” Martel says. “I’m studying all kinds of options.”

The company must “understand where the market is going”, he says, meaning his team must identify the features – range and number of cabin zones, for instance – that customers most value.

“The challenge with our industry [is], you don’t design this for the next five years,” he says. “You design this for the next 30 to 35 [years], so you need to anticipate.”

He sees potential for Bombardier’s next aircraft to fill gaps in the existing market, perhaps by providing an aircraft with capabilities differing from today’s products.

Martel does not discount moving forward with development of the Global 8000, the intended sister ship to the 7500. It launched the 7,900nm-range model in 2010, but development has since stalled.

“We’re looking into this. That’s an option,” he says. “There’s a remaining option… on the Challenger also.”

Martel thinks Bombardier could, within 10 years, develop a jet that burns 40% less fuel through greater use of sustainable aviation fuel, aerodynamic improvements and advances in engine technology.

“We believe it’s possible,” he says.

“The majority of our R&D spending is focused on how… we get an airplane flying with much less [carbon] emissions.”

Exactly when Bombardier might launch its next clean-sheet product remains unclear, but such a move may not be imminent.

“We’re not there yet,” Martel says.

“I promised the… financial market to be very disciplined in the next five years.” ◗ See p34, p42 October 2021 Flight International 17

Unmanned systems Development Model 437’s configuration will depend on Skyborg programme requirements

Northrop pursues loyal wingman Company proposes ‘attritable’ platform for US Air Force need using evolution of Scaled Composites-built demonstrator Garrett Reim Palmdale

Northrop Grumman

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orthrop Grumman has unveiled an unmanned air vehicle (UAV) concept named Model 437, targeting the US Air Force’s (USAF’s) Skyborg programme and international loyal wingman development efforts.

Based on the Model 401 Sierra; a low-cost manufacturing technology demonstrator developed by the company’s Scaled Composites unit in Mojave, California, the design was revealed at Northrop’s nearby Palmdale site on 8 September.

Designed, built and flown within about 24 months, the Model 401 has been flight tested over the past several years using “generous” funding from an undisclosed customer, says Cory Bird, Scaled Composites president. Its two examples have been used since 2017 and 2018, respectively.

The Model 437 would be larger and capable of carrying more payload and fuel, with its final configuration depending on the USAF’s Skyborg programme requirements.

With funding from the service, Northrop is proposing development of an unmanned version of the Model 401 that could be built in about 14 months and test flown to advance its new concept.

Northrop has studied how the Model 401 could carry a variety of payloads, such as side-looking

18 Flight International October 2021

radar, and two Raytheon AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles in an internal weapons bay. It currently has 2.67cb m (80cb ft) of internal payload space, “including the nose, leading edges, wing-tips, and tailtips”, and can carry a maximum of 907kg (2,000lb).

“Both vehicles are also capable of [carrying] external stores on the centreline and on the wings,” the company adds.

With a maximum take-off weight of 3,630kg, the Model 401 is powered by a Pratt & Whitney JTD15D-5 engine generating 2,960lb (13.2kN) of thrust, enabling a cruise speed of 400kt (740km/h). Flight endurance is about 4h with 907kg of fuel, and its single-seat cockpit is unpressurised, restricting operations to altitudes up to 25,000ft.

Stealthy shape The airframe has an 11.6m (38ft) wingspan and fuselage length, and is primarily made of bonded composites. Its stealthy shape incorporates a V-tail and a recessed air intake on the upper fuselage.

Bird declines to discuss the aircraft’s radar cross section.

Northrop’s proposed unmanned Model 401 is intended initially as a demonstrator, but it is open to making a production version if desired by a customer. This could be used for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), as well as high-value asset protection.

But with the Model 437, Northrop and Scaled Composites see an opportunity to go beyond development into production, perhaps manufacturing several hundred examples of the low-cost, or “attritable” aircraft.

Northrop is aiming for a unit price of $5-6 million. The bulk of that cost would come from using a Williams International FJ44-4A turbofan, which the firm says is priced at around $2.4 million.

Integrating the more powerful engine is necessary to achieve the USAF’s goal of having a UAV with a 2,600nm (4,830km) range and 533kt cruise speed. That would allow such assets to keep pace with a Lockheed Martin F-35A stealth fighter, which would play a role in their command and control during operations.

Bird says the Model 437 would have a dash speed of 567kt, enabling it to sprint ahead of manned combat aircraft to probe enemy airspace acting as a forward sensor. It also might act as a missile “carriage extension” for its manned wingman.

Northrop envisions that the Model 437 will be able to take off from a 914m-long, 15m-wide runway or straight section of road.

Its removable wings also could be replaced with ones with a higher aspect ratio for longer endurance flights, perhaps such as ISR missions, the company says. ◗

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Air France

Crew ‘underestimated’ effect of tailwind

Flightcrew missed A318’s levelling before false-glideslope intercept Pilots lost situational awareness under pressure on approach to Toulon-Hyeres and did not see autopilot’s change of mode David Kaminski-Morrow London

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nvestigators have found that an Air France Airbus A318’s stall-protection system activated when the aircraft captured a false glideslope, after its crew lost situational awareness while dealing with a rushed approach to Toulon-Hyeres airport.

The aircraft (F-GUGD) had been arriving from Paris Orly on 20 December 2019.

It had been cleared to descend to from 11,000ft to 1,900ft and the crew selected this assigned altitude on the flight control panel.

Although Toulon’s runway 23 was in use, the controller had remarked about meteorological conditions and the crew – believing the minima would exclude a

20 Flight International October 2021

runway 23 approach – opted instead for runway 05.

The aircraft, heading southeast, turned left to head northeast for the initial approach fix at the PALME waypoint.

But during the turn the A318 became subject to a strong tailwind component, initially rising from zero to 50kt (92km/h) and remaining above 40kt during the descent to around 3,000ft. This tailwind reduced the time window available before the aircraft reached the runway.

Offered orbit The crew was offered an orbit to provide distance to reduce altitude, but this was turned down in favour of a straight-in approach.

French investigation authority BEA says the first officer, who was

flying, knew the approach could be aborted if it became unstable and the captain backed this reasoning.

But the crew “underestimated” the effect of the tailwind on the approach path, it says, and “did not sufficiently assess” the feasibility of capturing the runway 05 glideslope from above. It adds that the pilots paid attention to the indicated airspeed but “did not take into account” the high groundspeed and descent rate.

While 12nm (22km) from the runway the aircraft was still at 5,170ft – about 1,350ft above the level expected for a standard 3° glideslope – and travelling with an airspeed of 237kt but a groundspeed of 307kt.

The crew, cleared for the approach and established on the localiser, started configuring the A318 for landing.

Safety Investigation

But the pilots did not realise that the aircraft was still set up to level off at 1,900ft – the altitude to which it had earlier been cleared – and did not detect the autopilot’s change of mode when it switched to capture this selected height.

The aircraft passed the final approach fix, 5.3nm from the runway, at 2,200ft. This was still 500ft above the published altitude of 1,700ft.

But it levelled at 1,900ft, with the result that it stopped closing in on the glideslope from above and instead deviated further from it.

The BEA says the crew, finalising the landing configuration, “did not realise the aircraft was level” and did not have the runway in sight, because it was obscured by cloud.

Having failed to reach the proper 3° glideslope the aircraft instead intercepted the false 9° glideslope signal, a phenomenon created by the nature of the ILS’s electromagnetic lobes. This phenomenon reverses the signals to the aircraft’s guidance systems, thereby causing the autopilot to generate pitch axis commands in the wrong direction.

Upon encountering the false glideslope, the A318’s autopilot commanded nose-up attitude and its pitch rose from 1° to 30° in the space of 20s. The pitch-up caused the airspeed to fall and the autothrust commanded higher engine power, until the increasing angle-of-attack and low-energy state triggered an audible speed warning to the crew and the stall-protection system engaged.

Abort order The BEA remarks that, as the aircraft had pitched up, an air traffic controller had ordered the crew to abort the approach but this was not read back by the pilots.

The crew disengaged the autopilots and set the engine thrust to go-around power, while the first officer made nose-down inputs. The BEA says the airspeed declined to a minimum of 96kt.

While the aircraft climbed at about 1,000ft/min along the runway centreline, the first officer initially maintained a 15° nose-up attitude.

But this allowed the aircraft again to

exceed the angle-of-attack threshold, triggering the stall-protection system again for a few seconds.

The crew started retracting the A318’s flaps and the aircraft’s airspeed rose above the ‘VLS’ level – the lowest speed the autothrust can be ordered to follow – where it had languished for 46s.

After stabilising the aircraft at 4,000ft the crew was offered radar vectors for a second ILS approach to runway 05, and the jet subsequently landed without further incident. None of the 114 passengers and five crew members were injured.

The BEA says the crew identified the presence of the tailwind but focused on its effect on landing performance rather than the impact on the A318’s trajectory. The pilots’ attempt to catch up with the glideslope from above, combined with the tailwind’s reducing the time to reach the runway, resulted in the crew’s losing situational awareness and failing to realise the aircraft was still set up to level before reaching the glideslope. ◗

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RAF takes lead on Protector training Launch customer for MQ-9B names Belgium as first instruction partner, while General Atomics’ SeaGuardian demonstrator makes milestone flight in non-segregated airspace Craig Hoyle RAF Waddington

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he UK Royal Air Force (RAF) has laid out its ambition to be at the forefront of international operations with General Atomics Aeronautical Systems’ MQ-9B SkyGuardian remotely piloted air system, after signing Belgium as its first training partner for the type – which it will operate using the name Protector.

Defence secretary Ben Wallace on 9 September announced that a Protector International Training Centre is to be built at RAF Waddington in Lincolnshire, under a fresh investment worth £94 million ($130 million). The base will from later this decade be home to the UK’s 16-strong fleet of the medium-altitude, long-endurance aircraft.

Speaking at Waddington during a flight demonstration event involving a maritime search radar-equipped MQ-9B SeaGuardian, RAF chief of the air staff Air Chief Marshal Sir Mike Wigston described the commitment as “a clear demonstration of our ambition to be the international training centre for some of the 30 allied air forces who have already expressed interest in Protector and SkyGuardian”.

Military personnel from several nations were also visiting the base, to get updates on the air vehicle’s development and UK training offer.

“The opportunities for future collaboration are vast,” Wigston says, pointing to the opportunity for the RAF “to pass on our years of combat experience” while operating the MQ-9A Reaper.

Brussels in August 2020 signed a roughly $189 million deal to acquire four MQ-9Bs and two ground control stations (GCS), with its lead air vehicle currently in production.

Secure learning “Housing the synthetic training system for the [Protector] aircraft, the centre will enable crews from the RAF and international partners to conduct a significant amount of their training in a secure environment,” the UK Ministry of Defence says. The facility also will be linked to its future Defence Collective Training environment and Gladiator distributed simulator network.

In addition to housing five synthetic training systems, the training campus infrastructure will also include a new hangar and living accommodation.

General Atomics in August deployed its MQ-9B prototype to the UK aboard a freighter to support testing in advance of the RAF fielding its Protector derivative operationally from 2024. A more than two-week airspace integration trials activity included performing what the partners claim to be the first flight by an unmanned

air vehicle in its class in non-segregated airspace.

Conducted on 1 September, the milestone sortie involved the SeaGuardian taking off from Waddington and crossing the North Sea to fly above Leeuwarden air base in the Netherlands. General Atomics is due to deliver the Royal Netherlands Air Force’s first of four MQ-9A Reapers before year-end, with the vehicle currently undergoing type acceptance in the USA. The flight was the result of extensive work carried out in conjunction with the UK Civil Aviation Authority, which will be responsible for the Protector platform’s certification.

Describing the event as having been enabled by “the biggest airspace change notice in UK peacetime”, Group Captain Shaun Gee, programme director for the Protector RG1’s introduction to service, notes: “Other players, and air traffic control systems – both here and in Europe, as it transited to Leeuwarden – interacted with this aircraft seamlessly, as if it was like any other.”

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22 Flight International October 2021

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Unmanned systems Collaboration

He notes that in addition to advancing the RAF’s programme, such achievements should “help assure the public, as well as the regulator, that this system is absolutely safe to fly like any other aircraft”.

Self-deployed Gee notes that the ability to fly Protector internationally using civil airspace is key to the RAF’s operating concept. General Atomics’ longest flight with the MQ-9B has totalled more than 40h, with the Honeywell TPE331-10 turboprop-engined type having a 210kt (388km/h) cruise speed and an operational ceiling of 40,000ft.

Rather than relying on the presence of forward-deployed launch and recovery element personnel, as is the case with the service’s

air-to-surface missiles and Raytheon Systems Paveway IV precision-guided bombs. The platform has eight under-wing pylon positions, as well as the ability to carry stores or a large sensor beneath its centreline.

A UK trials campaign is due to be performed in the USA in 20222023, before the arrival of the first RAF aircraft at Waddington.

Instructor crews also will receive training at General Atomics’ Grand Forks facility in North Dakota, before the UK training centre becomes operational.

Gee says that the RAF’s early-2024 entry into service milestone will represent the operational availability of one 24/7 “task line” with its 31 Sqn and the UK-based training system. Full operational capability is due to be declared in 2026, with three task lines and a second unit, 13 Sqn, at readiness.

current Reapers, the new model could be self-deployed, following a small support team which would set up the required equipment for it to take off and land automatically once in theatre.

The airspace integration trials involved using a General Atomics detect and avoid radar employing two active electronically scanned arrays in the aircraft’s nose, in combination with ADS-B technology and other onboard sensors.

The test platform also is equipped with a back-up satellite communication system, supplied

by Inmarsat, and carries Leonardo’s Sage electronic support measures equipment on its wingtips.

Additional work during the SeaGuardian deployment involved using the Raytheon SeaVue maritime search radar housed within a radome beneath its fuselage. The UK has declared strong interest in adding such a capability to its Protector fleet, with Leonardo’s Seaspray 7500E sensor its favoured candidate for a requirement that is not yet backed by firm funding.

From mid-September, the SkyGuardian also participated in the multinational Joint Warrior exercise, staged from RAF Lossiemouth in Scotland, where its GCS equipment was installed for the duration of the UK deployment. The service says the system’s contribution was in “the surface, sub-surface and amphibious domains”.

The UK has ordered its air vehicles and seven GCS for £260 million, as part of a Protector programme worth an overall £1.1 billion.

General Atomics has already flown four of its MQ-9B launch customer’s aircraft, including while performing captive carriage sorties with MBDA Brimstone 3

The RAF’s future fleet of 16 Protectors will be part of a £1.1 billion programme

Craig Hoyle/FlightGlobal

Crown Copyright

UK-based trials used aircraft fitted with maritime search radar

Smaller team Once at full strength, the RAF expects its Protector force will total 501 personnel: fewer than for its smaller number of Reapers. Each three-person crew will have a pilot, sensor operator and mission intelligence co-ordinator.

“We are building on 10 years of Reaper operations, where we have learned a hell of a lot about how to use these types of systems, either in an intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance role or – if we need to – to prosecute with kinetic effects,” Gee says.

As well as offering the RAF a more capable replacement for its current Reapers, the civil airspace-approved Protector is also expected to support a range of so-called Military Aid to Civil Authorities duties in the UK, such as disaster relief or search and rescue.

“My instinct tells me that as we begin to understand the utility of this platform, as we see its role developing in maritime patrol, in environmental monitoring, and all the other range of missions it can do, future [UK] government decisions will actively consider [acquiring] more Protectors,” Wigston says.

In addition to Belgium and the UK, Australia is General Atomics’ other current confirmed customer for the MQ-9B, with plans to buy 12.

Taiwan and the United Arab Emirates also last year received approval from the US Department of State to obtain SkyGuardians. Z October 2021 Flight International 23

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Racer approaches final straight Technology demonstrator nears final assembly as structural parts arrive at Airbus Helicopters’ site in Marignane Dominic Perry London

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Airbus Helicopters

irbus Helicopters has detailed fresh progress on its Racer high-speed demonstrator as the airframer pushes to meet a first flight target now set for the end of 2022.

While the date for the maiden sortie appears to have slipped again – it was previously scheduled for early in the second half of next year – major structural parts are now being shipped to the manufacturer’s Marignane final assembly line in the south of France.

Speaking at the Royal Aeronautical Society’s annual European Rotorcraft Forum event on 7 September, Tomasz Krysinski, vice-president of research and innovation at Airbus Helicopters, said the completed main fuselage had been delivered to Marignane “two weeks ago”.

This was shipped from its facility at Donauworth in Germany, which had joined and equipped the centre fuselage and nose sections.

In addition, Airbus Helicopters has received the Racer’s landing gear and the first of its twin Safran Aneto-1X engines, says Krysinski.

“All the pieces are coming together,” he says.

A paper presented separately at the same conference by a team drawn from the airframer and wing

Completion of main fuselage was performed at Donauworth site

24 Flight International October 2021

supplier Hamble Aerostructures notes that “almost all of the main structural components [had been] manufactured” by June this year.

At that point, the wings and tail parts were also “in final assembly” and are due to be shipped to the final assembly line “in the second half of 2021”.

Krysinski expects that by yearend the majority of components will have been received at Marignane, allowing ground tests to start by mid-2022, paving the way for first flight later that year.

15% Anticipated fuel-burn saving from ability to idle one of Racer’s two Aneto-1X engines in cruise phase

Airbus Helicopters does not plan rig tests of the entire helicopter, instead the company or suppliers will perform full-scale load limit tests for certain key components such as the main fuselage mechanical deck, stub wings, wings, and tail and empennage. These are due to get under way in late 2021, the paper reveals.

Developed as part of the EU-funded Clean Sky 2 programme, the Racer’s compound

architecture builds on the airframer’s earlier X3 design, incorporating twin pusher propellers mounted on the tips of the V-shaped “joined wings”, with the upper and lower wing surfaces configued in a “staggered” arrangement.

In high-speed forward flight, the main rotor is slowed and unloaded and effectively acts as a wing, providing around 50% of the required lift, with the V-wings supplying the remainder.

Anti-torque control comes from the lateral propellers in the hover, while at higher speeds this is “passively generated” by the H-shaped vertical tail, the paper says. This features a unique “double kinked” layout thanks to the canting and sweep of the upper and lower vertical fins.

Additionally, the tail boom is asymmetric; one side is cambered and uses the downwash from the main rotor to generate an anti-torque contribution, increasing hover flight efficiency by about 10%, the presentation states.

Krysinski says the Racer is “a very simple solution” which is “not more complicated than a normal helicopter”, adding that it will achieve its high-speed cruise target of 220kt (407km/h) in a “very cost-efficient way”.

Drag has been reduced by 45% over a conventional helicopter of the same size, he says, with the contra-rotating pusher configuration also contributing to the overall efficiency.

On top of that, one of the two Aneto-1X engines is capable of being idled in the cruise phase, contributing a 15% fuel-burn reduction, while still capable of flying at 180kt. Krysinski points out that a single engine operating at full power is more efficient than two powerplants each running at 50%. A high-voltage electrical system will be used to rapidly restart the idled engine.

Maximum take-off weight for the Racer is in the 7-8t range, with a cabin size similar to that of the 8-10-passenger H145 light-twin. ◗

Rotorcraft Development

Airbus Helicopters

Patent details how compound helicopter could power away from engine failure One previously undisclosed feature Airbus Helicopters may be considering for the Racer is a new automated safety system that would use the compound rotorcraft’s twin propellers to provide power to the main rotor in the case of a double engine failure.

Compound helicopters are designed to overcome the speed limitations of conventional rotorcraft, using propellers for thrust and a small wing to provide lift – around 50% of the requirement in this case – for high-speed flight, allowing the main rotor to be unloaded and slowed.

In addition, absent a tail rotor, differential thrust from the propellers is used to counter the torque effect from the main rotor while hovering.

Unfortunately, that extra complexity means a double engine failure is much harder to manage.

While an autorotative landing is still possible in a compound helicopter, it presents a greater challenge to the pilot.

This is particularly true at high speed, where lowering the collective pitch of the rotor blades to maintain their rotation speed can generate substantial levels of vibration and high aerodynamic loads on the main rotor.

But Airbus Helicopters thinks it may have found a solution. According to the details of a European patent application – published on 25 August but filed in November 2020 – the system would automatically activate if the helicopter is travelling above a certain speed.

In that scenario, the pitch of the propellers would be reduced to a point “so that each propeller

no longer consumes power, but on the contrary provides motive power” to the transmission.

That would mean the rotation speed of the main rotor is slowed “as little as possible”, the patent says.

As an example, Airbus Helicopters says the propellers of a compound helicopter can each consume around 1,000kW of power, and the main rotor a further 500kW. Using its system, the propellers could be used to each provide 250kW to the main rotor, the application says.

But it notes that the overall powertrain, notably certain gears, would need to be “sized to support the reversible function” of the system.

In addition, because the system activates automatically, “the speed of rotation of the lift rotor does not drop immediately and rapidly following the engine failure”.

This, it says, reduces pilot workload and gives the option of either slowly decelerating the aircraft until a normal autorotation can be initiated, or diving the helicopter to maintain forward speed.

At lower forward speeds, the system would instead automatically lower the collective pitch of the main rotor and adjust the pitch of the propellers to provide only enough thrust to counter any torqueinduced yaw movement.

Automated systems would also work to maintain rotor or propeller speeds at the required levels, while also providing the pilot with sufficient control to land the helicopter safely, the patent application says.

The application does not mention the Racer by name, but says the project that led to the airframer’s invention was funded by the Clean Sky 2 programme.

October 2021 Flight International 25

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Ryanair’s pilot push Low-cost carrier needs crews, but chief executive O’Leary suggests the value of UK licence has fallen in wake of Brexit David Kaminski-Morrow London

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yanair chief executive Michael O’Leary insists the airline is still interested in recruiting UK-licensed cockpit crews, although he suggests the value of a UK licence has deteriorated in the wake of Brexit.

UK cockpit union BALPA recently urged the government to restore mutual recognition of pilot licences between the UK and EU, a status ended by the post-Brexit withdrawal agreement.

Ryanair operating subsidiary Lauda Europe recently sought crews for a UK base but required European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) licences.

O’Leary points out that the carrier still needs to hire UK-licensed pilots to operate non-EU routes from its UK bases, and adds that the company is also “growing” the Ryanair UK division it set up to cope with Brexit disruption.

Route expansion “UK licences are not that valuable,” he said during a briefing on 31 August at which Ryanair unveiled a winter route expansion from London’s Luton and Stansted airports.

“But we don’t care whether [pilots have a] UK licence or EU licence, we can operate with both. What we want is well-trained, hard-working pilots and cabin crew.”

He sardonically refers to Brexit as having been a “stunning success”,

highlighting strains in various supply chains, and adds that the UK’s separation from EASA could also pose operational difficulties.

“We fear a kind of divergence between [UK Civil Aviation Authority] regulations on pilots and cabin crew training and EU regulations on pilot and cabin crew training,” he says.

O’Leary claims the airline has been able to recover quickly by retaining pilots and cabin crew, on reduced pay, and allowing them to stay current.

But the carrier is expanding its fleet with the introduction of Boeing 737 Max 8-200 jets, and he states: “There’s a bit of a training mountain for us to climb this winter. We need to train a lot of people to crew 55 aircraft next summer.”

Airline ‘disappointed’ as Boeing fails to close pricing gap for Max 10 disciplined track record of not paying high prices for aircraft.”

The Max 8-200 deliveries will take the airline’s fleet to over 600 aircraft by mid-decade.

“We have a more-than-sufficient order pipeline to allow us to grow strongly over the next five years,” O’Leary says.

AirTeamImages

Boeing and Ryanair have ended discussions over a potential 737 Max 10 order, citing an inability to reach agreement on pricing for the variant.

The budget airline’s chief executive, Michael O’Leary, had indicated on 31 August that the two sides were not making much progress on closing a “gap” on price expectations.

Ryanair says a Max 10 agreement would have followed the deliveries of its current fleet of 737 Max 8-200 jets, of which it has 210 on order.

While O’Leary had not specified the scale of a Max 10 deal, he had pointed out that the airline would typically “like to see” the introduction of 50 aircraft per year over four or five years.

But Ryanair on 6 September said the two sides have agreed “to waste no more time” on the pricing negotiations.

“We are disappointed we couldn’t reach agreement with Boeing on a Max 10 order,” says O’Leary. “Boeing has a more optimistic outlook on aircraft pricing than we do, and we have a

Airline has 210 Max 8-200 jets on order

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Airline Strategy

O’Leary has scorned BA’s plans for short-haul opereration at Gatwick

He says about 450 pilot cadets are passing through training bases, but adds that the airline’s application list for qualified 737 pilots is “nearing two or three thousand”.

“There’s a lot of pilots out there,” he says, highlighting the number of cockpit crew shed by crisis-driven job cuts. “There’s [also] a lot of cabin crew out there – less so in the UK, but we’re a relatively high-paying employer in the UK on the cabin crew side, so we’re not seeing any great difficulty.”

Meanwhile, O’Leary has scorned British Airways’ proposals to establish a lower-cost short-haul subsidiary at London Gatwick.

BA’s short-haul operation at Gatwick has been on hold as a consequence of the air transport crisis, but the suspension is complicated by the reinstatement of slot-utilisation thresholds.

BA chief executive Sean Doyle said at the end of July that the

airline had the “flexibility” to “hold the slot portfolio” at Gatwick for the winter, but was looking at “options” for summer 2022.

“We need to be competitive because the market will be very competitive coming out of the pandemic,” he said. “We are probably going to communicate plans in relation to Gatwick, dependent on discussions with our stakeholders.”

New subsidiary BA has yet to confirm details of the Gatwick strategy, but union representatives indicate discussions involve a new short-haul subsidiary.

The airline had tentatively agreed, at the 2019 Paris air show – prior to the crisis – to acquire up to 200 737 Max jets, signalling that a number would be deployed at Gatwick for short-haul services.

But O’Leary scoffs at BA’s Gatwick plan, describing its repeated attempts to set up UK low-cost

“If you were setting up a low-cost airline in London the last airport you’d set up in is Gatwick” Michael O’Leary Chief executive, Ryanair

operations – such as Go – as “the very definition of insanity”.

“If you were setting up a low-cost airline in London the last airport you’d set up in is Gatwick,” he says.

“It won’t work and they’ll lose more money doing it.”

O’Leary says BA does not want to surrender its slots to Gatwick budget carriers such as Wizz Air or EasyJet – which ultimately bought Go, after BA decided the airline did not fit with its strategy.

“The problem for BA is that, to have a successful low-cost shorthaul airline in Gatwick, you have to compete with yourself at Heathrow,” he says. “And BA doesn’t want to compete with itself at Heathrow.”

But HSBC analysts, in contrast, are encouraged by BA’s Gatwick restructuring, expecting it to be “constructive” and supportive of midterm profitability for parent IAG. “We see the logic for IAG in occupying its Gatwick slot portfolio with an efficient low-cost carrier rather than mainline BA,” the bank says in a research note. “On a medium-term basis, we think this should be profit-accretive.”

IAG already has low-cost operations in Spain, with Vueling, Iberia Express and its long-haul operation Level. ◗ October 2021 Flight International 27

Safety Report

Communications breakdown led to snowplough runway incursion Different radio frequencies between local controller and staff clearing snow contributed to incident involving Air Algerie 737 David Kaminski-Morrow London

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Vytautas Kielaitis/Shutterstock

ack of co-ordination between Lyon airport’s ground and local controllers has been cited as leading to an Air Algerie Boeing 737-800’s commencing its take-off roll while snowploughs occupied the runway.

French investigation authority BEA specifically highlights the decision to keep the snowplough communications on the ground controller’s radio frequency rather than that of the local controller overseeing the runways.

Co-ordination between the two controllers, it adds, was “compromised” by the use of “unusual and ambiguous vocabulary” and a lack of updates.

Low-visibility procedures were in effect at the airport before the 14 November 2019 incident, as a

Aircraft was ordered to halt its departure and took off from the same point a few minutes later

result of low cloud base and the presence of snowfall and mist.

Landings were being conducted on runway 35R with departures carried out on 35L. The 737 (7T-VKR), bound for Annaba, was transferred from the ground frequency to the tower’s local controller frequency as it waited at a holding point near intersection A9 at the southern end of 35L. This controller cleared the aircraft to line up and take off.

Permission granted Just 6s later the lead snowplough driver was granted permission from the ground controller to “make the junction” with runway 35L in order to clear snow from intersection A4, some 2,100m (6,890ft) along the runway from A9.

About 30s after the lead vehicle entered the runway area, the 737 crew began the take-off roll, travelling for 5s and reaching a speed of 63kt (116km/h) before the local controller ordered its crew to halt the departure. The aircraft slowed to 10kt and left the runway at intersection A6.

The BEA notes that the 737 subsequently departed from the same point a few minutes later, becoming airborne by the A5 intersection located about 670m before A4.

Investigators point out that the snowfall had been underestimated and that, although a suspension of operations was considered, no decision on this was taken. High workload and the re-opening of a runway while snow clearance still required entry of vehicles to its intersections contributed to the incident, says the BEA, which adds that stop-bar configurations were “incompatible” with snow-removal circuits followed by the snowploughs.

The BEA says the incursion was “symptomatic” of “confusion and disorganisation” in relation to managing the snowfall.

New instructions were issued in the aftermath of the incident requiring clearances to enter the runway intersection area to be given on control tower frequencies.

The BEA is recommending that clear guidance should be given to ease decisions on restricting Lyon operations – including limiting traffic or suspending flights – in poor conditions, and adds that similar consideration should be given to other airports given that French civil aviation authority databases list at least 14 other snowclearance incursion incidents in the five years from 2015 to 2019. ◗

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Marvin Mutz/Wikimedia Commons

Incident Inquiry

Orange2Fly A320 stall-protection activated after idle-thrust handover Flightcrew allowed jet’s airspeed to decline on approach after captain disconnected autothrust without first officer realising David Kaminski-Morrow London

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reek investigators have disclosed that the crew of an Airbus A320 allowed the aircraft’s airspeed to decay to the point where its automatic stall-protection system activated on approach to Muscat.

Operating for Oman’s SalamAir, the Greek-registered Orange2Fly A320 (SX-ODS) had been arriving from Dubai on 28 January 2019.

Although the first officer of the jet – which was vectoring for an ILS approach to runway 26R – had initially been flying, the captain temporarily took control at about 2,260ft as the aircraft manoeuvred to intercept the final approach path.

He disconnected the autopilot and autothrust, and selected idle thrust, at about 1,840ft. The aircraft entered a steep right turn at 1,480ft with a bank angle of nearly 38°.

The aircraft continued to descend and decelerate until, at 920ft and an airspeed of 145kt (270km/h), the captain handed control back to the first officer – with the thrust levers still in the ‘idle’ setting.

But Greece’s air accident investigation and aviation safety board says the first officer testified that he “never realised” the autothrust was disconnected, claiming there had been no call-out, and added he had “never previously flown the aircraft” with its autothrust disengaged.

The inquiry says the captain had “no real reason” to disconnect the autothrust in order to manage the aircraft. It says the captain had accumulated more than 13,500h

total flight time, while the first officer had nearly 1,500h.

With the first officer unaware that the thrust needed to be controlled manually, the aircraft’s airspeed bled away. Just below 500ft the captain intervened with nose-down sidestick, while the first officer was applying nose-up, resulting in dual inputs until the jet reached 350ft.

The thrust remained at idle until the airspeed declined to 116kt and the aircraft, descending at 1,200ft/ min, reached 290ft – at which point the aircraft’s ‘alpha floor’ stall-protection activated and take-off power was applied by the autothrust.

Pitch attitude Flight-data analysis shows the aircraft reached a minimum altitude of 210ft and pitched 14.8° nose-up before it began to accelerate and climb. The first officer’s sidestick initially registered pitch-up and the aircraft’s pitch attitude reached 16.5° before both pilots applied dual nose-down sidestick input. The aircraft levelled off and its autothrust disconnected at 134kt.

One of the senior cabin crew members testified that she had noticed the aircraft was “very close to the ground” with “loud [beeping] noises” from the cockpit, after which the engines increased power and the aircraft gained height, before touching down about 30s later.

Investigators state that the A320, with the captain flying, crossed the runway threshold at 70ft and landed without further incident. None of those on board were injured.

But the inquiry points out that Greek investigators were not

initially notified of the seriousness of the event.

The investigation board received an occurrence report from the carrier on 6 February 2019 – nine days after the event – which “did not contain any evidence” of a serious incident.

Only after the board received an internal investigation report from the carrier on 28 March did it upgrade the classification of the event, but an inquiry was delayed by communication issues with Oman and the decision by Omani authorities – relayed to Greek counterparts at the end of May – not to investigate owing a lack of sufficient information.

Greek investigators notified relevant parties of its investigation in November 2019.

The investigators’ newly published findings state that the cockpit voice recorder had been erased before the inquiry could obtain information on the pilots’ discussions. However, they describe cockpit-resource management during the incident as “poor”.

There was non-compliance with standard operating procedures during “all phases” of the initial and final approach, the inquiry says, including handover control, bank angles, vertical speed, and glideslope deviation.

Pilots did not read out and confirm mode changes, and the handover from the captain to the first officer took place below 1,000ft without the aircraft being fully stabilised, its thrust at idle.

Orange2Fly suspended operations in January this year. ◗ October 2021 Flight International 29

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Kabul airlift buoys Airbus Atlas and MRTT fleets impress in Afghanistan evacuation role, as Kazakhstan deal ends A400M export order drought and the NATO Multinational MRTT Fleet (MMF), based at Eindhoven in the Netherlands.

Dumont says that while well-documented availability issues that have affected Atlas operators since its entry into service in 2013 “are not behind us, we are on top of them”.

“It’s more now a question of planning with the users” to ensure required modifications are performed in the least disruptive way, he adds.

“The capabilities of the A400M are getting much closer to what was expected of us as per the contract. Now it’s a matter of quarters, maybe a year or two, until we really have given the full capability to our customers,” he says. While conceding that the Atlas “has taken time to gain maturity”, he adds: “Try to find another achieving that level of performance.”

In addition to its recent strong showing in Afghanistan, Dumont

Craig Hoyle London

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irbus Defence & Space’s new head of military aircraft has hailed the performance of its A400M Atlas and A330 multi-role tanker transport (MRTT) during the coalition evacuation of personnel from Afghanistan, and voiced fresh optimism about further sales prospects following a breakthrough deal with Kazakhstan.

Some 25 A400Ms and nine MRTTs flew a combined 120 missions during the late-August airlift, which rescued stranded nationals and Afghan civilians from Kabul after the Taliban regained power of the country.

Describing the flights as “operationally demanding”, Jean-Brice Dumont notes that the sorties were flown “without a technical event”. Only one planned departure was disrupted, when an A400M crew was forced to reject a take-off run due to civilians encroaching on the runway at Hamid Karzai International airport.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH

Rapid response To be delivered from 2024, the tactical transports will enable the nation to “conduct military, civil and humanitarian missions”, Airbus said in announcing the order on 1 September. The company adds that the pair will “quickly respond to any mission by rapidly deploying game-changing capabilities over long distances and enabling effective access to remote areas.”

The deal – for aircraft lacking an air-to-air refuelling receiver capability – also includes personnel

UK Royal Air Force used its A330 Voyagers to transport passengers

Crown Copyright

Operationally demanding Involving roughly one-quarter of the type’s current active fleet, activities with the A400M were performed by “all our customers but one”, says Dumont, adding: “It was not an easy, peaceful evacuation mission. These missions could not have been done with the predecessor/competitor,” he notes, without naming the rival Lockheed Martin C-130 directly.

The coalition airbridge was also supported by A330 tanker/transports, including from the Australian, French and UK air forces,

says Kazakhstan’s contract to acquire two A400Ms represents “a turning point for the programme”.

“It’s a very strong success for us, [with] the first export contract in so long,” he says. “They want to go to the next level of military transportation – my question is when they will buy more.”

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FlightGlobal.com/waf 30 Flight International October 2021

Transports Operations Kazakhstan will field two A400Ms from 2024

“The capabilities of the A400M are getting much closer to what was expected of us as per the contract” Jean-Brice Dumont Head of military aircraft, Airbus Defence & Space

training and maintenance support, while a related memorandum of understanding has also been signed covering the establishment of an in-country maintenance facility for the Airbus C295 tactical transport.

Cirium fleets data shows that the Kazakhstan air force’s current eight C295s are aged between three and eight years, with the nation’s Border Guards also operating a single example. Dumont believes that more of the twin-turboprops could be required, with talks having taken place. Cirium data shows that the air force also has seven Antonov An-24/26s, one An-12 and a single An-72 in service.

Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Spain, Turkey, the UK and previous lone international buyer Malaysia – which secured industrial workshare on the A400M project as part of a four-aircraft deal – have so far received more than 100 Atlas transports combined, from previous orders for 174.

Airbus Defence & Space chief executive Michael Schoellhorn

confirms that the Kazakh commitment will increase the total to 176.

“We know that others are interested… some [deals] not being far from conclusion,” Dumont says.

Meanwhile, Airbus has handed over its fifth examples of the A330 tanker each to the French air force

120 Missions flown from Afghan capital by 25 A400Ms and nine A330 MRTTs during late-August operation

and NATO’s MMF. The transfers mean that it has now delivered 50 of the adapted widebodies to military customers for air-to-air refuelling and airlift tasks.

Dumont – who was previously executive vice-president of engineering for Airbus’s commercial business – confirms that the company’s preference is to continue

Airbus Defence & Space

production of the A330-200 as the basis for its MRTT offering. In addition to remaining on-order examples for France and the MMF, the company also has been selected for the Royal Canadian Air Force’s future tanker requirement.

Some future MRTT modifications are likely to involve secondhand aircraft, with Spain expected to finalise a deal before year-end to convert three examples formerly operated by Iberia.

However, Dumont notes: “The majority of the [potential] customers that we are discussing with are more inclined towards new aircraft.” The company currently has “a couple of years of backlog”, and a minimum rate of around two MRTT conversions per annum could be sustained, he believes.

Production continuity “We want to continue with the [A330] Ceo. The question of converting [the MRTT product] to the Neo is a permanent question, but as long as we are with a couple of aircraft per year and have rate 3, 4 or 5 then we don’t believe it makes sense to go to Neo.” Airbus is, meanwhile, teamed with local prime Lockheed in pursuit of the US Air Force’s (USAF’s) KC-Y tanker requirement, a request for information (RFI) about which was released earlier this year.

“In terms of quantity it’s levels higher – it’s a different step,” Dumont says, adding that the partnership with Lockheed “is taking a new shape” following the RFI release.

“We are engaged in a partnership that is stronger than ever. And we believe our aircraft has demonstrated its superior capabilities on the market overall,” he says.

Representing the next phase of the USAF’s in-flight refuelling recapitalisation plan after completing its acquisition of 179 Boeing 767-based KC-46As in 2029, the future requirement is expected to seek 140-160 so-called “Bridge” tankers.

According to an outline released by the service in June, the new assets would provide a gap-filler capability until it finalises a subsequent ‘Advanced Aerial Refueling Tanker’ procurement.

A final request for proposals for the Bridge tanker requirement is expected to be released in 2022, the USAF says. ◗ October 2021 Flight International 31

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Ampaire

Future focused Innovation programme designed to position UK as leader in advanced aviation solutions starts third funding contest Dominic Perry London

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he UK government-backed Future Flight Challenge (FFC) on 6 September began accepting submissions from projects seeking a share of £65 million ($90 million) under the third and final phase of its innovation programme.

Running for two years from April 2022, the Phase 3 effort will culminate in large-scale demonstrations of both air vehicles – ranging from drones to urban air mobility vehicles and electric or hybrid sub-regional aircraft – and the future aviation ecosystems in which they will operate. In each case, industry matches the FFC’s financial contribution.

For certain of the 34 main projects selected last year for the Phase 2 programme, flight test activities are only now getting under way. For example, in recent weeks, US-headquartered electric aircraft developer Ampaire has flown its Electric EEL, a modified Cessna 337 Skymaster, in two separate FFC-backed initiatives at either end of the UK – SATE and 2ZERO. Gary Cutts, challenge director, is pleased by the progress so far, with most projects running to schedule despite the logistical brake applied

by Covid-19. What has particularly heartened him is the desire to

32 Flight International October 2021

innovate – and quickly – in an industry that is “one of the worst affected on the planet” by the economic effects of the pandemic.

Although the sector has clearly been focused on cash conservation, this has not had a chilling effect on research and development.

“The message is the opposite one – what we are seeing here is an appetite for innovation in the midst of the pandemic”, says Cutts. Industry, he says, “has been triggered by this emergency”.

£300m Budget for Future Flight Challenge – £125 million from the UK government and £175 million from industry

The FFC has a total budget of £300 million: £125 million from the government, provided through the UK Research and Innovation body, and a further £175 million coming from industry.

According to the FFC’s timeline, contained in its recently-published roadmap document, during Phase 2 “Services are developed and simulated, unlocking a path to certification and social acceptance.”

Phase 3, meanwhile, envisions that

“Services are demonstrated in real-world, large-scale and integrated activities with strong socio-economic value propositions.”

That leads to industrialisation and commercialisation from 2026, scaling up, so that by 2030 “fully integrated mobility-as-a-service operations provide seamless, sustainable and rapid transport for all”.

Its ambition for 2024 – for which read the end of Phase 3 – is to see demonstrations across a broad stream of activities enabling the development of an entire aviation ecosystem for the future. There are a total of 46 demonstration objectives across three categories: infrastructure (airports, booking systems, air traffic management); air vehicles; and “regulatory/knowledge-based infrastructure”.

What that means is that aerospace technology projects are not funded in isolation. For example, the Phase 2 work undertaken by the Ampaire-led 2ZERO consortium includes hardware providers such as itself and Rolls-Royce, but also airports and local authorities across southwest England, and researchers from the University of Nottingham to model the impact of introducing point-to-point aviation services in the sub-regional market.

Or to quote the application form for Phase 3: “For [the aircraft] strand of the competition your

Technology Research Ampaire has flown its Electric EEL – a modified Cessna 337 – in two projects

“What we are seeing here is an appetite for innovation in the midst of the pandemic. Industry has been triggered by this emergency” Gary Cutts Director, Future Flight Challenge

Future Flight Challenge

project must include a means of demonstration of one or more of these classes of aircraft and enabling systems, operating in a representative environment.”

As Cutts puts it, the goal is not “decarbonising aircraft and carrying on as we were” – but using the significant improvements in operating economics promised by aircraft with novel powertrains “to enable air services”, thus connecting people and places that were previously not served by air transport.

Phase 3 is split into two strands.

Strand 1 will focus on demonstrating novel air vehicles, and Strand 2 will

employees. Ampaire has also been vague on its plans for growing its operation outside the USA. On the first point, Cutts concedes that the test flights will offer few insights into the operation of the vehicle itself, but he argues that the Electric EEL’s presence will allow airports, local authorities and the public – to an extent – “to engage with such an aircraft” and then come up with “the questions that need to be answered” before an electric-powered aircraft could begin sub-regional services.

focus on developing the systems to support their deployment.

Assuming they are selected, certain of the Phase 2 programmes are sufficiently comprehensive to roll straight into Phase 3, while others may need to merge to meet the selection criteria, says Cutts. In addition, companies or consortia that have not participated in the two earlier phases are not excluded from the process, he points out.

2ZERO likely falls into the former category as the project contains an element of pump-priming, funding R-R to develop a suitable electric powertrain for a 19-seat, twin-engined sub-regional aircraft intended for Phase 3 demonstrations.

But that project – and SATE to a lesser extent – has attracted criticism on two levels. First, detractors ask, what is the point of performing demonstrations with the Electric EEL? By Ampaire’s own admission, it is unlikely to ever enter service and, besides, has already been the subject of airline route-proving tests in the USA. Secondly, there is the question of Ampaire’s presence in the UK: although it meets the FFC’s criteria through its Ampaire UK subsidiary, that is a business with just five

Infrastructure as well as air vehicles will be demonstrated by programme

Differing standards Cutts highlights the issues that larger airports may have in dealing with small aircraft, or the multiple standards of charging equipment needed, as potential obstacles that need to be considered.

And although the modified Skymaster will likely never fly commercially, “it is representative enough [of a production aircraft] that it engages the community”, he argues.

As to Ampaire’s UK credentials, Cutts is at pains to stress that its bid was compliant with the entry criteria. He adds: “The small team they have created didn’t used to exist in the UK. It is small, but undoubtedly doing highly technical work here. [But] if they took further money [we would expect] them to put more roots down.”

Nonetheless, he notes that funding, like that from the FFC, opens up the opportunity for “quite substantial” foreign direct investment in the UK in the future.

Phase 3 applications are due by 3 November and Cutts hopes to conclude the selection process in time for contracts to signed by April next year, giving those rolling over from Phase 2 an element of continuity.

He says there has been no decision yet on the number of projects to be funded, but given the larger scale of the demonstrations, the final number is likely to be lower than the 34 backed in Phase 2. ◗ October 2021 Flight International 33

Business aviation Development Cruising at 41,000ft, cabin-pressure altitude will be 4,850ft

Bombardier updates business jet line-up to bring smaller aircraft more in line with large-cabin offerings Bombardier on the super-midsize segment, following several years during which its focus was its Global large-cabin jets. Bombardier recently divested its commercial aviation businesses and intends to end production of Learjets next year. These changes will mean the Canadian airframer is solely invested in the medium- and large-cabin segments, which, it says, are the most-profitable and fastest-growing in the business jet market.

“We have been leading that market segment,” Martel says of the medium-cabin space. “The changes we are making now will keep us leaders in that position for a long time.”

One noticeable difference will be the change in cabin-pressure altitude: when cruising at 41,000ft, it will be equivalent to 4,850ft – about 2,000ft less than the Challenger 350. Bombardier will achieve the modification by reinforcing the jet’s baggage compartment bulkhead, says manager of sales engineering Mathieu St-Cyr.

Jon Hemmerdinger Montreal

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ombardier has dropped the curtain on a cabin mock-up of a refreshed version of its Challenger 350 super-midsize business jet – the Challenger 3500 – for service entry in the second half of 2022.

Revealed on 14 September during an event at the jet’s production facility in Montreal, the update sees the Challenger gain a modernised cabin, more in keeping with other aircraft in the manufacturer’s lineup, notably the larger Global family.

The jet also has a lower cabin-pressure altitude and its first auto-throttle system.

Overall, the 3500’s performance specifications remain unchanged from those of its predecessor, which entered service in 2014.

The 3500 will be a 10-passenger jet powered by twin Honeywell HTF7350 engines, with a 3,200nm (5,920km) range and top speed of Mach 0.83. The 3500 will cost $26.7 million.

“We are raising the bar on our competition with a refreshed product,” says Bombardier chief executive Eric Martel.

Business jet manufacturers often focus on the range and speed of their products, but, argues Martel, for the end-user, the “cabin is the most important [factor]”.

The 3500 programme represents renewed attention from

34 Flight International October 2021

Bombardier

Bombardier

Super-midsize market gains new Challenger

Nuage seats add ‘spaciousness and balance’

“We are pumping more air into the bubble,” he adds. “At 41,000ft, it is going to feel as if you are sitting on the ground in Denver.”

Bombardier is giving the 3500 its “Nuage” leather seat, introduced on the Global 7500 in 2018.

“We wanted to make something more sculptural – automotive, almost,” says Laurence Casia, Bombardier manager of industrial design and cabin innovation.

Bombardier will not simply pull the same seat from the 7500 for the 3500, but has rather “refined” the design to make it “perfectly suited” for the smaller jet.

“It’s the first time that a seat of this calibre has been used in the medium category,” says Casia. The Nuage seat has more angles and is more sculpted than traditional business-jet seats, which can be “boxy”, he adds. “It adds a feeling of spaciousness and balance.”

In addition, Bombardier is updating the Challenger’s entertainment system to reflect advances in technology such as voice control via an app for the cabin systems.

Technical evolution It will also have Ka-band connectivity, a 24in, 4K-definition monitor in the forward cabin (and an optional second aft-cabin monitor), and wireless phone chargers.

“What we are doing today is a major improvement. Technology is evolving so fast,” Martel says.

Alterations are also being made to other elements of the cabin design, plus a reshaped galley area, with room for high-end coffee machines, plus “soft-close” drawers and a new bi-fold door.

Bombardier is developing the Challenger 3500 with an eye on sustainability. The flight-test programme will be “carbon neutral” (via use of carbon offsets and sustainable aviation fuel), and it will offer the aircraft with cabin materials that have low environmental impact. These include veneer made from eucalyptus (which grows quickly and requires little water) and upcycled wool and polyester.

The Challenger 3500 will also be the first super-midsize jet sold with an “Environmental Product Declaration”, a document summarising its “complete environment impact”, Bombardier says. The company introduced that document with the Global 7500. Z See p40

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Lockheed Martin has unveiled its KC-Y tanker candidate for the US Air Force. The A330-200-based LMXT will have a 123t fuel capacity – 12t more than Airbus’s MRTT

Rolls-Royce

Rolls-Royce’s Spirit of Innovation made a 15min debut flight from Boscombe Down airfield ahead of an all-electric speed-record attempt

36 Flight International October 2021

Airbus

Peter Foster/Shutterstock

Lockheed Martin

Rome plans to equip its Eurofighters with Leonardo-built ECRS Mk2 active electronically scanned array radars, via an agreement with the UK

Breeze Airways has revealed a new livery on its first of 80 Airbus A220-300s, with service entry due in the second quarter of 2022

London City airport

Highlights

Helvetic Airways on 2 September conducted its first commercial service with an Embraer 190-E2 into London City airport, from Zurich

Best of the rest

A lead pair of Pilatus PC-21s have been delivered to the Spanish air force. Another 22 will follow by next June

We showcase some of the other notable events covered by the FlightGlobal team between issues

Airbus

Pilatus

Omani low-cost carrier SalamAir has introduced its first 212-seat Airbus A321neo: a CFM International Leap-1Apowered example, registered A4O-OXA

October 2021 Flight International 37

November’s issue

Next month

38 Flight International October 2021

On sale 28 October

Big deal

New ally

Why F-35 purchase is key to the UAE’s military renewal

How Israeli partnership will help Abu Dhabi develop industry

Israel Aerospace Industries

US Air Force

Mehdi Photos/Shutterstock

Our Dubai preview checks health of Emirates’ superhub model

Despite worries about the pandemic’s effect on attendance, this year’s business aviation event in Las Vegas will cater for a booming sector awaiting a number of potentially disruptive developments

Betting on BACE Murdo Morrison London

T

he National Business Aviation Association conference and exhibition is back for the first time in two years. However, BACE – which returns to the USA’s fun capital, Las Vegas – will take place from 12-14 October against the backdrop of a fast-spreading Delta variant that has slowed the country’s impressive economic recovery from the Covid-19 crisis, and has already caused another major exhibition taking place next to BACE to be cancelled.

The USA’s bar on travel from many parts of the world, including Europe, will also have an impact on attendance at the sector’s biggest gathering. While the annual event caters for a largely US-based audience – the domestic business aviation market is roughly the same size as the rest put together – it does attract visitors and exhibitors from dozens of countries. Most of them will be unable to attend this year.

At the same time, business aviation seems to have shrugged off any negative effects from the pandemic.

Traffic levels – especially in the USA – have returned to 2019 levels, and in some cases improved on them, as those who can afford it have shunned the premium cabins of commercial airliners for what they perceive as the more secure confines of a business aircraft.

The health of the sector is reflected in the latest figures from the General Aviation Manufacturers Association, which reported a 16.8% increase in total aircraft deliveries to 1,050 units in the first half of 2021, compared with the same period in 2020 (bearing in mind that the first two months of last year were unaffected

by Covid-19 restrictions). The amount billed rose 9.4% to $8.6 billion, suggesting that manufacturers were not having to discount too heavily to achieve these sales.

40 Flight International October 2021

While business jet shipments were up 8.2% in the first half of this year, those of turboprops were 45.4% higher. Helicopter deliveries rose by 37.7%. While these figures include aircraft being deployed not just for business travel – such as medevac or law enforcement – they indicate an industry brimming with enough confidence to invest in new equipment from the airframers themselves, and also from the long supply chain.

As our reports in the following pages make clear, rather than preserving cash, the manufacturers have continued to develop platforms during the crisis, with Dassault Aviation’s Falcon 10X the latest to join an ultra-long-range, ultra-large-cabin segment that we examine the prospects for (see p42). At the other end of the business jet spectrum, our test pilot Michael Gerzanics flies the new G2+ version of the award-winning Cirrus Aircraft Vision Jet (see p46).

New breed Even further down the weight categories of business aviation comes the new breed of air mobility platforms, with several electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) developers to show their wares at BACE. More than a decade after the financial crisis ended the very-light jet air taxi revolution, we look at the prospects of this emerging category of aviation for disrupting the world of personal urban travel (see p56).

Part of the case for eVTOL aircraft is their apparent environmental friendliness. How to reduce the industry’s sizeable carbon footprint will be a huge theme of the show, and we look at what part innovations such as sustainable aviation fuel could play in the effort (see p52). The focus for many of those attending this year’s BACE will not be the immediate crisis and the short-term recovery, but the shape of business aviation in the years and decades to come. ◗

The business aviation sector has been expanding and developing

October 2021 Flight International 41

Main image: BillyPix. Insert images (clockwise from top left): Dassault Aviation/Bombardier/Cirrus Aircraft/BAE Systems

Business aviation Overview

Covid-19 may be making long-haul travel difficult, but demand for the biggest business jets is rising.

And with three new entrants to the market, competition is heating up in this profitable segment

Dassault Aviation

Distance prospects

Dassault Aviation unveiled development of its flagship Falcon 10X in May

42 Flight International October 2021

Business aviation Large-cabin jets

The market for business jets never suffered as mightily from the pandemic as its commercial aviation sibling. Indeed, in early 2020, as Covid-19 arrived and airline operations fell into disarray, business jets were suddenly in high demand.

Plenty of people wanted to travel – either domestically, or to escape whatever country in which they found themselves marooned. If you wanted or needed to travel, and if you had the money, you might have chartered a jet.

“They [business jet operators] were flying the pants off them up to the March [2020] timeframe,” says Brian Foley, founder of aerospace consultancy Brian Foley Associates.

The boom was short lived, ending as the world hunkered down to wait out the pandemic. Airframers cut staff and production. Deliveries slowed to 130 business jets in the second quarter of 2020, fewer than half as many as were delivered in the same period of 2019, according to GAMA. But all was not lost. Amid the pandemic, demand “percolated” for small and mid-size jets, say Foley

Jon Hemmerdinger Tampa

T

hink back to the last NBAA-BACE – October 2019, also in Las Vegas. Before the world changed so dramatically.

That was a time of optimism for the companies that produce the largest business jets – the ultra-long-range types that can fly nearly anywhere on a single tank of fuel.

Those companies were riding a wave of demand, with business jet deliveries in 2019 jumping 15% yearon-year, according to the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA).

At 2019’s BACE, Gulfstream launched its G700, a competitor to Bombardier’s standard-setting large-cabin Global 7500.

Then came Covid-19, which changed everything.

The industry sank into a dark place from which escape seemed uncertain. Manufacturers cut staff, wound down production, and restructured operations.

But a curious thing happened in 2021: the largecabin business jet market snapped back. For various reasons – many pandemic-related – buyers are again eagerly placing deposits on the world’s fastest, largest, priciest and most-capable business jets.

Much has changed with the pandemic. But to a large degree, trends that defined the upper echelon of the business jet market prior to Covid-19 also define its 2021 recovery. Some of those trends have actually accelerated – competition, for instance. In May, Dassault Aviation unveiled development of its Falcon 10X, a jet aimed squarely at countering the Global 7500 and in-development G700.

Bombardier

Inelastic demand “It just goes to show that the top market is, as economists say, completely inelastic,” says Richard Aboulafia, vice-president of analysis at Teal Group, meaning manufacturers seem able to charge “whatever price [they] like” – and buyers will still line up.

Commercial aircraft producers also compete in the large-cabin business jet segment, though they tend to deliver far fewer executive jets than do the business aircraft-dedicated airframers.

Airbus has been vocal in promoting its ACJ TwoTwenty, a 5,650nm (10,500km)-range variant of its A220-100 jetliner. Earlier this year, Airbus said it had started assembling the first TwoTwenty at its Montreal site. It aims to fly the aircraft for the first time before year-end and to deliver the lead example to launch customer Comlux early next year.

Other competitors include Embraer, with its E190based, 4,600nm-range Lineage 1000E, and Boeing Business Jets, which sells executive variants of its 737 Max, including the 7,000nm-range BBJ 737 Max 7.

The business jet market has not fully recovered.

With Covid-19 continuing its global sweep, the sector is far from its usual self. Layoffs and production cuts will have lingering effects.

But things are looking up.

“The second quarter was exceptional on all fronts.

Better revenue, better profitability, better cash generation, better service revenue and perhaps most importantly, better aircraft sales,” Bombardier chief executive Eric Martel said on 5 August.

Who would have thought?

Bombardier delivered 11 examples of its Global 7500 in the second quarter

– aircraft perfect for the only travel that was still permitted: domestic. But still, at the end of last year, large-cabin jets “weren’t moving at all – the big-cabin stuff practically ground to a halt”.

The large-cabin market was not sour for long, however. Recovery took hold in early 2021 and demand returned. Airframers delivered more jets and new orders filled their backlogs. By mid-year 2021, some companies were delivering jets at a faster pace than in pre-Covid 2019, and upping revenue expectations.

“At first, it looked like the small- and medium-cabin segments were doing best, but now a rising tide [is] lifting all boats,” says Aboulafia. “No-one thought everything would come back on a dime, but it did.

Now they have to bring production up again.”

He estimates Bombardier, Dassault and Gulfstream will, in 2021, deliver a combined 196 large-cabin jets (defined as those costing at least $35 million) for a total delivery value of $11.7 billion. He expects deliveries will increase steadily – hitting 250 jets, worth $14.7 billion, in 2025.

October 2021 Flight International 43

Gulfstream

Gulfstream has staked much on the 19-passenger, 7,500nm-range G700

“If all goes well, we may be able to bring a few Bombardier delivered 17 large-cabin business jets more forward from the first quarter [of] 2022 to meet (including 11 of its flagship Global 7500) in the seccurrent demand,” adds Novakovic. “You will see more ond quarter – one more even than the 16 large-cabin deliveries, revenue and operating earnings in the secjets it delivered in the second quarter of 2019. ond half as a result.”

The company, fresh from a restructuring that Gulfstream’s hands are full with the work of involved divesting non-aviation businesses, recently certificating the jet it has staked much of its fuupped its 2021 revenue expectation by $200 million ture on: the 19-passenger, 7,500nm-range G700. to more than $5.8 billion. It also tweaked its 2021 The airframer revealed the Rolls-Royce Pearl delivery expectation to 120 aircraft, revised from a 700-powered G700 at 2019’s NBAA. It targets a late previous estimate of 110-120 deliveries.

2022 service entry.

Bombardier has a bit of a head start over competing ultra-long-range products, having beat competitors Within range to market with the late 2018 service entry of its Global Priced at $78 million, the G700’s range is the same 7500. Powered by twin 18,900lb (84.2kN)-thrust GE as Gulfstream’s previous standard bearing G650ER – Aviation Passport turbofans, that $75 million jet can and 200nm less than the Global 7500. But customers carry 19 passengers and has 7,700nm range. are not clamouring for more range – 7,500nm will The next move for the Montreal airframer is get you nearly anywhere you want to go in the world, somewhat unclear, although executives say their Gulfstream has said. focus lies on maturing the Global 7500 programme.

But buyers really want more space, which is They also continue to evaluate the feasibility of where the G700 delivers, according to Gulfstream, launching the long-stalled Global 8000, which Bomwhich calls the G700’s cabin the industry’s “most bardier launched in 2010 alongside the Global 7000, spacious” – Dassault makes a similar claim for its which became the 7500.

Competitors Gulfstream and Dassault – which have each countered the Global 7500 with clean-sheet behemoths – have likewise reported enHow the newest large-cabin business jets stack up couraging market conditions.

Specifications Dassault Falcon 10X Gulfstream G700 Bombardier Global 7500 “Sales activity truly accelerIn-service date December 2018 Scheduled: end of 2025 Scheduled: late 2022 ated in the middle of Febru$75m $75m $78m Price ary” – a trend that continued up to 19 Not disclosed up to 19 Passengers in the second quarter, Phebe 7,700nm 7,500nm 7,500nm Range Novakovic, chief executive M0.925 M0.925 M0.925 Top speed of Gulfstream parent General 51,000ft 51,000ft 51,000ft Operating ceiling Dynamics, said in July.

1.88m 2.03m 1.91m Cabin height Savannah-based Gulfstream 16.6m 16.4m 17.3m Cabin length delivered only 21 aircraft in the 2.44m 2.77m 2.49m Cabin width second quarter, 11 fewer than 31.7m 33.6m 31.4m Wingspan the same period last year. But 2 x GE Aviation Passport 2 x Rolls-Royce Pearl 10X 2 x Rolls-Royce Pearl 700 Engines it aims to hike deliveries to 32 18,900lb 18,000lb 18,250lb Thrust (per engine) aircraft in the third quarter and Source: Manufacturers 37 in the fourth.

44 Flight International October 2021

Business aviation Large-cabin jets

in-development Falcon 10X, which has a slightly higher and wider cabin.

Excluding baggage areas, the G700’s cabin stretches 17.3m (56ft 11in). That is a smidgen more than competing jets’ cabins and sufficient for five “living areas” – one more than in the G650ER. Gulfstream also highlights the G700’s technology.

Fly-by-wire controls. Active-control side sticks. A Honeywell Primus Epic-based Symmetry flightdeck with touch-screen avionics, moving maps, head-up displays, synthetic and enhanced vision systems and a predictive landing system.

The G700’s 18,250lb-thrust Pearl 700s will also burn 2-3% less fuel than the G650ER’s R-R BR725s, the airframer claims.

As of late July, Gulfstream had completed some 1,600h of testing across five G700 test jets.

However, “there is much that remains to be accomplished” with the certification effort, Novakovic said at the time, observing that “new engine

“Its getting a little crowded in the market, with the three contenders,” adds Foley. “That’s a lot of airplanes in a pretty niche market, but it’s also one of the more-profitable segments.”

With the Lineage 1000E and executive variants of the 737 Max also battling for large-cabin business jet buyers, it is worth asking if demand can support all that production.

In the long term, analysts are unsure – but at the moment the answer is yes. Underlying economic conditions indicate no shortage of willing buyers, they say.

Strong corporate profits and roaring equities markets have left buyers flush with cash, says Aboulafia.

And oil prices are up – good for business jet makers because a large number of buyers are either oil companies or from oil-rich countries, he adds.

Another encouraging factor is that the used aircraft market is booming, with very few aircraft for sale.

“When there is nothing left in the pre-owned market and people are itching to buy… there is only one other place to look, and that’s new aircraft sales,” Foley says.

In July, Bombardier’s Martel cited the health of the used-aircraft market, noting only 4-5% of the global used aircraft fleet is up for sale – a two-decade low.

“Typically, the percent of the fleet for sale, in a normal time, is 10-12%,” says Foley, noting that about 18% of the used fleet was available following the 20072009 recession.

As a result, orders are coming in and airframers are reporting higher book-to-bill ratios – the balance of a company’s orders to deliveries – a higher number

Airbus

Airbus ACJ TwoTwenty is based on the A220-100

development programmes… are always difficult to get through certification.”

For a while, it seemed Bombardier would only have to contend with Gulfstream in the ultra-long-range space. But with large-cabin business jets being as profitable as they are, Dassault could not have been expected to sit on the sidelines forever.

In May, the French company jumped into the ring, revealing it is developing its largest-ever business jet, the $75 million Falcon 10X. Powered by 18,000lbthrust R-R Pearl 10X turbofans, the 10X will have 7,500nm range with eight passengers and four crew.

Dassault is working to bring the aircraft through certification in time for service entry at the end of 2025, three years behind Gulfstream’s G700 timeline.

In July, the company revealed it had landed its first 10X orders, although it did not disclose how many.

In the first half of 2021, it took orders for 25 Falcon jets of all models – up from five for the same period of 2020.

“For the past 25 years, they have been absent from the very top,” Aboulafia says of Dassault. “Will they be able to gouge out a presence? That is the single biggest question.”

4-5%

Percentage of global fleet of used aircraft currently up for sale – down from 10-12% and driving demand for new jets

is better, meaning a company is landing orders faster than it is delivering jets, thereby building its backlog.

Bombardier reported a second-quarter bookto-bill ratio of 1.8:1 (in aircraft units), adding $300 million worth of orders to its backlog in the period.

Gulfstream’s second-quarter ratio meanwhile was 2.1:1 (in dollar value).

“From an order perspective, the quarter bordered on spectacular,” Novakovic said of Gulfstream in July.

“This is the strongest-order quarter in number of units in quite some time.”

The way things look, Foley wonders if demand for large-cabin jets might actually outstrip supply for several years. He notes that manufacturing and supply-chain limitations will probably preclude significant production rate hikes. That is likely to be fine for manufacturers; they will not soon forget being stuck with unsold inventory following the last recession, he says.

“I could make the argument that there could be a scarcity coming up, at least initially,” Foley says of new jet availability. “If I have to make a prediction – all three of those manufacturers will be facing a nice problem to have.” ◗ October 2021 Flight International 45

Having already impressed with earlier versions of its SF50 Vision Jet, Cirrus has again raised the bar with the newly available G2+ model, offering enhanced performance and new safety features

Vision of success Michael Gerzanics San Jose

C

irrus Aircraft launched its ground-breaking, single-engined SF50 Vision Jet in 2006. It received US Federal Aviation Administration certification in October 2016, with European Union Aviation Safety Agency approval secured the following May. The world’s most affordable light jet enjoyed immediate market success, and more than 260 have been delivered to date.

I was fortunate to fly the original Vision Jet in July 2017 for Flight International. Since then, Cirrus has not stood still, offering a major upgrade with its Generation 2 (G2). Launched in early 2019, this standard increased the jet’s operating ceiling from 28,000ft to 31,000ft, made possible by upping the Williams International FJ33 engine’s thrust output at altitudes above 24,000ft.

The Vision Jet’s composite fuselage was also reinforced, so that the original G1 version’s 8,000ft cabin altitude pressure could be maintained. This higher altitude and thrust capability pushed maximum range out to 920nm (1,700km) with four occupants. Stated in other terms, the G2 could carry 68kg (145lb) more payload than the G1 over 800nm.

Aside from its increased performance, the G2 also gained an auto-throttle (AT), a welcome addition that reduces pilot workload.

In July 2021, Cirrus announced the latest upgrade to the SF50, the Vision Jet G2+, offering what might be best characterised as increased bandwidth.

The major update is in enhanced hot and high operating performance. Changes to the FJ33’s FADEC

46 Flight International October 2021

increase available thrust for take-off, allowing more range and/or payload compared with the G2. The next bandwidth increase is actual in-flight connectivity, using Gogo’s Avance L3 3G broadband system. This keeps pilots and passengers connected in real time, improving productivity.

Enhancements to passive sound deadening from the G1 to the G2 reduced ambient cabin noise levels by up to 3dB. Matthew Bergwall, Cirrus’s director of Vision Jet product line, says this reduction allows him to characterise the type’s cabin as a headset-free zone.

Recently, Flight International was invited to fly the Vision Jet G2+ out of San Jose’s Norman Y Mineta International airport. Cirrus’s piston product line features large and airy cabins, and the Vision Jet continued this feature. As I had noted before my flight four years ago, the Vision Jet has a certain ramp presence driven by its sizeable cabin with large windows, and the single jet engine mounted prominently on its fuselage’s dorsal spine. Finally, the large V-tail, employed so that engine exhaust would not impinge on the empennage, shouts: “Look at me!”

I accompanied Bergwall as he performed the pre-flight walk-around inspection of our preview aircraft, N275CM; a production-representative G2+.

There was little to visually differentiate this from the original variant, but keen eyes might notice the two broadband antennae mounted on the underside of the fuselage. As we circled the jet, Bergwall pointed out where minor aerodynamic refinements had been made to reduce drag.

The original Vision Jet had Boundary Layer Energisers (BLEs) installed before the ailerons to improve handling at high angles of attack. Follow-on testing for the G2 showed they could be removed with no

Flight test Cirrus Vision Jet G2+ Increase in available thrust from Williams FJ33 engine enables greater range and/or payload

Cirrus Aircraft

920nm Range of Vision Jet G2+ at maximum take-off weight (2,722kg) and with four occupants aboard

October 2021 Flight International 47

Cirrus Aircraft

Cabin can accommodate up to five adults and two children

adverse effect. As I would find out later while in flight, the BLE-free wing provides for lighter lateral control stick forces and crisper roll performance. Fewer parts and better performance equals a win-win.

Integral steps on the lower half of the clamshell door aided entry to the large, airy cabin. Before settling into the left-hand pilot seat, I took note of the passenger accommodation. The cabin is fitted with three seating rows, with removable seats. The densest configuration offers seating for seven: five adults and two children. Ours featured two middle-row seats, separated by a console, and two children’s seats in the third row. A 51cm (20in) LCD display viewable from the aft two rows was a feature sure to put the in-flight broadband to good use.

One unique aspect of the Vision Jet’s layout is where the emergency switches are located. Engine fire control switches, emergency locator transmitter, quick-don crew oxygen masks, as well as several other emergency controls, are conveniently placed on the overhead above the flight deck. The Cirrus Airframe Parachute System (CAPS) actuation handle is nestled between the oxygen masks.

Standard across the whole Cirrus offering, CAPS is a hallmark of the airframer’s dedication to providing industry-leading safety features. Just aft of the CAPS handle is the autoland activation panel, with its large recessed red activation button accessible to the first-row passengers.

Safe Return is Cirrus’s implementation of Garmin’s Autoland system, which was awarded the 2020 Collier Trophy, recognising it as the greatest accomplishment in aeronautics or astronautics in the USA 48 Flight International October 2021

that year. According to Garmin, Autoland is “the world’s first certified autonomous system designed to activate during an emergency to safely fly and land an aircraft without human intervention”. One of three aircraft types so far to be certificated with Autoland – along with the Daher TBM 940 and Piper M600 SLS – the SF50 is the only jet.

Safe Return is armed by pushing the ceiling-mounted button. At altitudes of more than 600ft above ground level (AGL) this will engage the system after a 10s delay. A green “landing airplane” icon illuminates on the panel to show activation. At any time, pushing the yoke-mounted autopilot (AP) disconnect switch will disengage Safe Return.

Safety first Designed primarily for cases when the pilot is incapacitated or unable to land the aircraft, Safe Return turns the Vision Jet into an autonomous air vehicle.

The system uses all available resources to find the nearest suitable airport to land safely. The transponder is automatically set to 7700, with advisory radio broadcasts made on air traffic control and Emergency Guard frequencies. During the emergency recovery, passengers are informed of the time remaining to landing. Once on the ground, the Vision Jet brakes itself to a stop on the runway.

It should be noted that operation of Safe Return is predicated on good GPS data, and degraded operations can result if there are aircraft system failures.

This revolutionary enhancement provides an additional layer of safety to operations of the Vision Jet, which was itself a Collier Trophy winner in 2017.

Ken Hall

Cirrus Aircraft

Flight test Cirrus Vision Jet G2+

First-row passengers can reach Autoland activation button

As Bergwall strapped into the right-hand pilot seat, I reacquainted myself with the Vision Jet’s flightdeck.

When I had first sat in the type four years earlier, I noted that the flightdeck was “arranged in a somewhat unique manner”. The forward panel was unlike any aircraft I had flown before, looking like it came from a car of the future.

Over the intervening years the design has grown on me. It is anchored by two 35cm GDU 1400 display units, for the primary and multi-function flight displays. A bolster forward of the screens gives the flightdeck its unique look, with three GTC 580 touchscreen controllers placed below it. The number one (leftmost) screen also serves as a standby flight display. The AP control panel is placed below the controllers, with the single thrust lever (TL) on the small centre console.

Engine start controls are located just forward of the sidestick. Placing the engine knob to RUN and depressing the engine button initiated the start sequence. The FADEC-controlled start was essentially automatic, with the pilots monitoring for an abnormal start. Time to IDLE was 25s, with interstage turbine temperature peaking at 655°C (1,210°F); well below the 1,000°C start limit.

The flaps were set to the take-off setting (50%) before the taxi to San Jose’s runway 30L. Taxiing the Vision Jet would turn out to be the hardest task

Cirrus Aircraft

M0.53

Cirrus SF50 Vision Jet G2+ specifications

Maximum operating Mach speed

Dimensions

Length Height Wingspan Wing area

9.3m 3.3m 11.7m 18.18sq m

Passenger cabin

Length Width Height Cabin volume Baggage stowage*

3.5m 1.56m 1.24m 4.81cb m 0.63cb m/136kg

Weights**

Maximum take-off weight Maximum landing weight Basic empty weight Useful load Usable fuel capacity Full fuel payload

2,722kg 2,517kg 1,610kg 1,112kg 907kg 205kg

Performance

Take-off distance** Operating ceiling Range*** Maximum operating Mach speed Landing distance****

973m 31,000ft 920nm M0.53 918m

Notes: *Plus optional 0.11cb m/18kg **MTOW, SL, ISA ***MTOW, IFR reserves, four occupants ****MLW, SL, ISA

I would perform on the preview flight, owing to its fully-castoring nose wheel. Cirrus ecosystem pilots are used to this, but for me it was a bit of a learning curve, especially as the Vision Jet tried to weather vane into the 13kt (24km/h) crosswind. However, by the time we reached the runway I had gained confidence in my ability to keep the G2+ on taxiway centrelines.

Before lining up on the runway, Bergwall reviewed take-off contingencies. Response to an engine failure would be guided by altitude. Below 600ft AGL: land straight ahead; between 600ft and 2,000ft AGL: deploy the CAPS; and above 2,000ft: initiate an air start while turning towards an emergency landing field.

Cleared for take-off, I advanced the TL to the full forward take-off (TO) detent. On the 24°C day TO power stabilised at 98% of rated (SL STD Day). Differential braking was used to maintain the centreline until the rudder become effective at around 40kt indicated airspeed. At 85kt, a moderate aft pull was needed to establish the 5° nose-up TO attitude.

Pitch trim easily removed yoke force changes caused by flap retraction during acceleration through 115kt. At 5,000ft, I retarded the TL to the MCT detent, (62% thrust for that day) and established a 150kt en route climb. I referenced the flight director’s (FD’s) ‘Highway in the Sky’ boxes to keep the Vision Jet on the published ground track and at desired climb speed.

October 2021 Flight International 49

Conversation point While in cruise I also noted the 6.7psi/462hPa delta p pressurisation system was maintaining a cabin altitude of 8,000ft, comparable to that of many airliners at cruise altitude. I also took off the noise-cancelling headset to assess ambient flightdeck noise level. It would be a bit of a stretch to compare it to my flight four years ago, but I did note that we could converse easily over the background noise.

With my headset back on, we prepared for the RNAV (GPS) runway 12 approach, to be followed by a low approach and visual circuit to runway 17 to a full stop. Bergwall guided me through, loading the approach and setting our minimum descent altitude at 6,600ft MSL. With the AP and AT engaged, we descended in Vertical Speed mode to the Final Approach Fix (JAAKE) altitude of 7,900ft sea level just outside of JAAKE. Established on final, the AP and AT did an excellent job of tracking the approach path. Fully configured,

Ken Hall

During the climb I engaged the AP and familiarised myself with the Perspective Touch+ flight deck.

Time to level off at 31,000ft was slightly over 25min.

During the climb, temperature was about 10°C hotter than standard. With three occupants, book data for the G2 showed the time needed as 32min, so our G2+ had reached its operating ceiling 6min sooner than its predecessor.

The first leg of my preview flight was to Bishop, California. Increased TO thrust is the main performance improvement offered by the Gen 2+, unless you are glued to a screen. Bishop sits at 4,124ft mean sea level (MSL), at the northern end of the Owens Valley, and forecast high temperatures would make it an ideal place to demonstrate the G2+’s increased performance.

Cruising at 31,000ft en route to Bishop I left the TL in the MCT detent (34% thrust), to see how fast the G2+ would go. After 5min of slow acceleration, it settled at 188kt indicated airspeed. Cirrus lists 305kt for high-speed cruise, but this is predicated on standard day temperatures. On our test day it was 10°C hotter, yet our true airspeed was 313kt (Mach 0.52). Fuel flow was just 65gal/h. As with the climb performance, Cirrus had under-promised and over-delivered.

First-row passengers Nose canhouses reach Autoland recovery parachute activation button

with gear down and flaps at 100%, the Vision Jet had a reference speed of only 85kt indicated airspeed.

When MINIMUMS was announced by the flight management system, I pushed the TO/GA button on the TL. I sat back and watched as the aircraft pitched to 7° nose up. I immediately retracted the flaps to 50%, followed by the gear when a positive rate of climb was established. Passing 115kt I retracted the flaps and clicked off the AP and AT to hand-fly the circuit to runway 17, as the winds were 180°, 17kt, gusting 23kt.

Despite the bumpy conditions, the Vision Jet was a pleasure to fly in the circuit. On short final I retarded the TL to IDLE at 30ft, and the flare manoeuvre, started a few feet above the runway, resulted in a soft touchdown. Light toe-braking slowed the Vision Jet for runway turn-off and taxi back to runway 12 for our flight back to San Jose.

Lining up for take-off on runway 12, I advanced the TL to the TO stop and noted available thrust was about 93% – a sizeable increase over the G2’s. FADEC changes – akin to the automatic thrust reserve feature available on some twin-engined jets, which boosts thrust on the good engine in the event of a failure to the other – deliver the additional thrust. On the 38°C

Cirrus SF50 Vision Jet G2+ versus competitors SF50 Vision Jet

Eclipse 500*

Piper M600

Cabin (L x W x H) 3.5 x 1.56 x 1.24m 920nm Range (four occupants, NBAA IFR) 31,000ft Operating ceiling 1 x Williams International FJ33 Engine/s Maximum take-off weight 2,722kg Useful load 1,112kg Take-off distance 973m Landing distance 918m Maximum cruise speed 311kt Stall speed 67kt Thrust-to-weight ratio 31% 150 Wing loading (kg/sq m) $2.98m Price (typical)

3.75 x 1.43 x 1.28m 1,125nm 41,000ft 2 x P&W Canada PW610F 2,722kg 1,089kg 742m 850m 375kt 69kt 30% 203 n/a

3.76 x 1.25 x 1.18m 1,484nm 30,000ft 1 x P&W Canada PT6A 2,722kg 1,089kg 803m 810m 274kt 62kt n/a 140 $2.85m

Source: Manufacturers Note: *Used example

50 Flight International October 2021

Flight test Cirrus Vision Jet G2+

plenty of visual and aural cautions/warnings provided to alert the pilot of the slow speed condition.

At shaker activation, the Vision Jet was stable, with little if any wing rock. Additionally, the jet was responsive to small control inputs at this low-speed condition. The AT will prevent slowing to an unsafe speed, waking up if not engaged to keep the Vision Jet out of the shaker situation.

With the slow-speed manoeuvring complete, I started a descent for the ILS approach to runway 30L. During the descent I executed a number of 45° to 60° angle of bank (AoB) turns. The Vision Jet’s Electronic Stability and Protection (ESP) system kicked in as the AoB exceeded 45°. ESP is a great safety feature, helping to prevent an unusual attitude from upsetting the pilot’s day.

Soft landing The final event of the preview flight was a handflown ILS approach to a full stop landing. During the approach to runway 30L, I found the FD provided intuitive guidance to help me keep the Vision Jet on course and on glide slope. Approximately 30% thrust held our target speed, again just 85kt. As was the case at Bishop, the touchdown was a smooth one, no doubt aided by the trailing link main landing gear.

Moderate braking slowed the Vision Jet to taxi speed.

My flight in the upgraded Vision Jet G2+ revealed a single-engined jet with docile handling qualities and a remarkable number of safety features. Increased take-off thrust markedly increases the type’s capabilities in hot and high conditions.

The Perspective Touch+ avionics package is an extremely capable one, with safety features such as the blue LVL button and ESP, which in addition to its roll protections also offers low- and high-speed protections. CAPS is a proven safety system that has saved numerous lives. Finally, Safe Return adds an entire other layer of safety, virtually eliminating the risks posed by pilot incapacitation.

The Vision Jet G2+ offers marked performance improvements over the G2, along with in-flight broadband which is sure to please pilots and passengers alike. More capability in a safer package is a sure recipe for success, and Cirrus has cooked up another winner with its Vision Jet G2+. Z

Ken Hall

Distinctive V-tail contributes to light jet’s ramp presence

30s

day, book take-off roll for a G2 is 3,600ft, while our G2+ lifted off in only 3,000ft.

The FADEC remapping provides a 4% thrust increase at SL STD Day, and up to 20% more at higher temperatures and elevations. According to Bergwall, this now opens up 4,000ft-long East Coast airfields to maximum gross weight take-offs in typical hot summer temperatures. Out of Henderson, Nevada – Las Vegas’s general aviation/executive airport – at 41°C the G2+ can carry 227kg more payload than the G2. This additional capability will no doubt be appreciated by Vision Jet pilots, with the only downside being a slight increase in Cirrus’s Jet Stream hourly cost.

I hand-flew the climb out of Bishop as we circled to gain altitude to cross the Sierras at 16,500ft MSL. At this lower-altitude transit, a fuel flow of 81gal/h was needed to maintain 215kt indicated, with a resultant true airspeed of 285kt. During the medium-altitude cruise, Bergwall discussed the Vision Jet’s emergency descent mode (EDM), an automated descent to a safe altitude in the event of cabin pressure loss.

The Vision Jet’s AT and Safe Return features greatly enhance the effectiveness of EDM. The AT allows the thrust to be reduced, expediting the EDM’s descent to 14,000ft. Safe Return adds a new safety net. After levelling at 14,000ft, if there is no indication of pilot activity within 30s, Safe Return activates on the assumption that the pilot is incapacitated.

Before descending into San Jose I was able to explore the Vision Jet’s slow-speed handling characteristics. I accomplished two approach to stall manoeuvres; one clean and the other in a landing configuration, with gear down and flaps at 100%. In both manoeuvres I held aft sidestick until the stick shaker activated. Before shaker activation there were

Ken Hall

Time for Safe Return system to activate if there is no pilot activity following emergency descent to 14,000ft

Gerzanics (left) with Cirrus Vision Jet product director Matthew Bergwall

October 2021 Flight International 51

BillyPix

Technologies and programmes for cutting carbon emissions will feature at latest NBAA event

Mark Pilling London

W

hether it is devastating forest fires in Siberia, a decade-long drought in Chile, or unprecedented floods in China’s Henan province and in Germany, the evidence of rising greenhouse gas emissions on our planet is plain to see.

For many, at both an individual and business level, the issue of tackling climate change and what that means to our behaviour is increasingly becoming part of our daily lives and workplace agendas.

2021 may be looked back upon as the year when not only did the Covid-19 pandemic finally come under control, but also the point when climate change was properly recognised as a crisis requiring urgent action.

In aerospace, where all sectors are working towards a world where they use less fossil fuel and pay for the carbon they emit, the business and general aviation industry believes it is playing its part, and will use the NBAA-BACE event to demonstrate its commitment and leadership on sustainability.

It is an issue that has seen the industry globally coalesce as one, especially around the need to develop and promote the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). “When you see the business aviation associations of Europe, North America, at the international level, GAMA [the General Aviation Manufacturers Association], the OEMs and many others, coming together with one voice on sustainability, that is a huge indication of the support behind this important

52 Flight International October 2021

technology to deliver sustainable aviation,” Kurt Edwards, director general at the International Business Aviation Council (IBAC), tells FlightGlobal.

Business aviation leaders are quick to point out that the industry has taken a leadership stance on sustainability for years, delivering the “important milestone” of the Business Aviation Commitment on Climate Change (BACCC) – promising to reduce the sector’s impact – as long ago as 2009, explains Edwards.

The sector’s association heads and thought-leaders across industry are discussing – with the emphasis on doing “our best to provide some level of analysis” – whether the 2009 commitment should be updated, and made more ambitious, says Edwards.

Standard target There are two main issues. The first is whether business aviation should align its commitment with what is fast becoming the standard – net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. As it stands today, the BACCC commits to halving CO2 emissions by 2050 relative to 2005 levels.

That goal is a challenge, considering the progress of SAF and technologies envisaged at present, but is possible, says Edwards. Today, he notes, although the analysis is “terribly fuzzy” looking 30 years ahead, the industry’s thinking is that net zero could possibly be achieved by 2060-2065 without using carbon offsetting, according to the BACCC assumptions.

This brings about the second issue. For business aviation to commit to an ambition of net zero by 2050, “we would need much greater availability of SAF,

Business aviation Sustainability

The business aviation industry will use this year’s gathering to take stock of its sustainability credentials at a show expected to place more emphasis on the environment than ever before

Green shoots important leaps in aircraft technology and be able to use offsets to some degree,” says Edwards. In real terms, this would mean the sector using all these tools to eliminate far more CO2 emissions than planned.

Explaining the targets and ambitions – and how to meet them – to the sector is the critical, and complex, job of the IBAC and all the associations. “Our message to operators is we need to find some way to make this not just affordable to them, but deliverable to them.

They need the ability to operate to their sustainable goals and work with [SAF] producers to make this happen. We can set the targets, but ultimately everyone will have to agree to that ambition,” says Edwards.

Discussions are under way about updating the industry’s sustainability commitments and the question will be prominent at the show. In that respect, and for an industry super-keen to meet face-to-face once again and to show off its green credentials, NBAA 2021 comes at a good time.

Stewart D’Leon, director, technical operations at NBAA, says there are three sustainability initiatives planned at the show. The first will see the third summit

2060

Earliest date to achieve net zero emissions without using carbon offsetting, according to BACCC assumptions

meeting of the Business Aviation Coalition for SAF, made up of all the associations plus leading industry players; an in-person event in Las Vegas to educate and promote the use of SAF. The second will be the launch of an NBAA accreditation programme, to “further advance a sustainability culture in business aviation organisations and recognise those that meet or exceed specified criteria”. Organisations will be able to obtain separate accreditations in four areas: flight, operations, ground support and infrastructure.

Practical help “We have been working on the NBAA Sustainable Flight Department Accreditation Program for over a year with a pilot programme featuring a number of operators,” says D’Leon. Two of these have been the flight departments at US corporations Adobe and Starbucks. “They have been helping us refine the programme. We have been getting significant interest.”

The development of the first, formalised programme for sustainability is exactly the type of work NBAA is renowned for with its practical assistance for operators, and will help make it a regular “doing business” topic, rather than something out of the ordinary.

The third feature of NBAA will be a practical one for exhibitors, who will be encouraged to sign up to a “green pledge” to help make the actual show more environmentally friendly (see p55).

After a two-year hiatus, NBAA offers an in-person opportunity for all to provide updates on their sustainability progress.

October 2021 Flight International 53

Hall. The pace of development will not necessarily slow down, he believes, but with the range and size targets achieved, there is an opportunity for a switch to environmentally-focused initiatives.

“What is the next battleground? It is not going to be an operating cost issue, it is going to be in green technology,” believes Hall.

The engine OEMs are working hard on two sustainability-related fronts: research and development into hybrid and electric engines, and pursuing the approval of their engines for use with 100% SAF. Although announcements specific to business aviation are scarce, the R&D efforts can be applicable to all aircraft classes.

“Most recently, we announced a $163 million investment in a hybrid-electric demonstrator project for regional aviation, backed by the governments of Canada and Quebec,” says Makris. “Targeting a 30% reduction in fuel burn and CO2 emissions, and flight testing in 2024, this demonstrator will show the potential of hybrid-electric propulsion technology to set new standards for sustainable aviation. We are confident this potential will eventually extend beyond regional aviation to other segments as well.”

R-R has been busy in the urban air mobility (UAM) and commuter markets. “We announced that we will power Vertical Aerospace’s new [VA-X4] all-electric UAM aircraft and that we joined forces with Tecnam and Wideroe to deliver an all-electric [P-Volt] passenger aircraft ready for service in 2026.”

“Bombardier expects environmental issues to be front and centre at NBAA-BACE this year – and as an active member of the SAF Coalition, we recognise how increasingly important the environment has become to CEOs and flight departments, airframe and powerplant manufacturers, suppliers and indeed across the entire general aviation segment and business aviation sector,” the airframer says.

While Bombardier will keep the specifics back for the show, “our overall engagement at NBAA-BACE and our announcements will demonstrate the company’s unrelenting commitment to sustainability”, it says.

“Sustainability and the journey to net zero will be an essential part of our show appearance,” says Rolls-Royce. “Of course, our Pearl engine family and its newest members, the Pearl 700 for the Gulfstream G700 and the Pearl 10X for the Dassault Falcon 10X, will be the focus of interest for our customers.”

With its PW800 family of engines, used on Gulfstream’s G500 and G600 and the Falcon 6X,

30

delivering a 10% increase in fuel efficiency, Pratt & Whitney Canada (P&WC) is 100% committed to the industry’s goals to “significantly reduce CO2 emissions and to drive even further efficiency from propulsion technology”, says vice-president marketing Irene Makris.

“This commitment is demonstrated in our efforts to make current products environmentally ‘best in class’, bring customers options through our carbon offset programme, maximise the use of SAFs and invest in new technologies and architectures that increase engine efficiency,” says Makris.

Absent giant Gulfstream, which has been pioneering sustainability for years and was an early adopter of SAF, has chosen not to attend NBAA this year, although it will return. “Gulfstream has made the decision to not attend NBAA-BACE or any large event this year. Our customers have shared that their preference is for smaller events right now, and we are hosting those accordingly,” it says.

NBAA has always been the fairground for major aircraft launches, with business jet makers working on a cycle of a new airframe every decade or so, compared with the 20- to 25-year cycle of Airbus and Boeing. “The competitive side of business aviation, with five mainstream OEMs and two to three peripheral ones, has undoubtedly driven development at such a pace,” explains Dan Hall, senior valuations consultant at Ascend by Cirium.

“The latest advances in aircraft development have been about greater range and greater size. With aircraft such as the G700 and Bombardier Global 7500 the industry has finished that mission,” says 54 Flight International October 2021

Pratt & Whitney Canada

Number of green guidelines prepared by NBAA to help exhibitors lessen the impact of their show attendance

“We announced a $163 million investment in a hybrid-electric demonstrator project for regional aviation, backed by the governments of Canada and Quebec” Irene Makris Vice-president marketing, Pratt & Whitney Canada

Anthony Pecchi/Dassault Aviation

Business aviation Sustainability

PW800 engines deliver a 10% increase in fuel efficiency for the Falcon 6X

“We are also quite busy in the electrification of the small propeller market. The impact in the long-range, large-cabin business aviation market will be rather evolutionary,” R-R says. “We will see SAF-powered, ‘more electric’ engines that are able to deliver more electrical power which can then be used to power certain secondary systems – for example, mechanical/hydraulic systems. We are well positioned for all the coming opportunities.”

Offsetting course Several of the OEMs also offer carbon offsetting services. In May, R-R launched SAFinity, which will initially cater for business aviation users, enabling them to invest directly in SAF. P&WC recently launched a Carbon Offset Service, tied to its Eagle Service Plan maintenance programme for business jet engines. “We expect demand for carbon offsetting to grow, and we are actively working on expanding this service to other engines within our portfolio,” says Makris.

There will be plenty of SAF-related news at NBAA, as more fixed-base operators, such as Signature Flight Services, and fractional operators like NetJets, move as quickly as possible to offer it to customers.

Users, too, as they seek to meet their Environmental, Social and Governance targets and drive towards net zero by 2050, will be asking how the industry is able to help them.

After a long wait, the show will be a celebration as the industry gathers once again. However, amid the talk of new aircraft orders and a return to growth, the discussion around sustainability and the environment will never be far away. Z

NBAA builds on environmental pledge Shows and exhibitions can represent something of a throwaway affair – a lot of people travel to a pop-up event for a few days and then it disappears, leaving a lot behind (and material that is rarely used again). NBAA is taking a lead as a show organiser, to bring a greater degree of sustainability to events with its “green pledge”.

“NBAA is engaging its exhibitors to be more sustainable – shows can produce a lot of waste, but it doesn’t have to be that way,” says Edward Bagsic, its senior manager of conventions, VIPs and budgets.

The organiser has produced 30 guidelines that exhibitors can follow to reduce their carbon footprint – such as ordering local food for their chalets, or not using “build and burn” booths – and is asking participants to pledge to use at least five of them.

About 30 companies had signed up to the initiative by mid-August, and more will join as the green pledge scheme expands both at this show and at future events.

“When we started thinking about the 2020 show it was always top of mind to make a meaningful sustainability project on the ground to match the industry’s sustainable initiatives in the air,” says Bagsic. “NBAA 2021 will be the most sustainable show we have done, and we believe we are one of the first shows in aviation to be doing this.”

October 2021 Flight International 55

Air taxi developers have been buoyed by major recent investments in their advanced air mobility projects, but now the hard work begins on the path to achieving certification and service entry

Ready to rise?

Jon Hemmerdinger Tampa

I

nvestors have long flocked to aerospace companies, eager to back visionary projects that may or may not get airborne. The romanticism of flight draws the dollars. So does the sector’s ability to connect the world, and the sheer marvel of soaring above the earth.

In recent times, the start-ups du jour have been developers of electric aircraft, including fixed-wing types and electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) models. The companies say their concepts can transform short-distance travel.

The visionaries will be back at NBAA-BACE in Las Vegas, grouped in the northwest corner of the show floor in a section called the “AAM & Emerging Technologies Zone”.

Such entrepreneurs have been mainstays at NBAA shows for several years. But since 2019, despite the

56 Flight International October 2021

pandemic, the electric-aircraft sector – also known as advanced air mobility (AAM) – has expanded rapidly.

Easy access to capital, technology improvements and social pressure to curb carbon emissions have helped to fuel the rise.

Developers, now racing towards ambitious service-entry goals, have recently announced billions of dollars in new investments and billions more in purchase commitments. Several have recently embarked on efforts to become publicly traded, jumping aboard the so-called “SPAC” – specialpurpose acquisition company – bandwagon. These entities are shell companies established to bring promising start-ups public.

Still, much about electric aircraft remains unproven.

Analysts question whether designs can be financially successful, either as air taxis or business or executive transports. They cite technology and infrastructure hurdles, certification challenges, questions of public

Business aviation eVTOL

XTI Aircraft

XTI Aircraft is developing hybrid-electric TriFan 600

Embraer subsidiary Eve Urban Air Mobility plans to have its eVTOL aircraft flying passengers by 2026

acceptance and the enormous cost of developing and producing a new breed of aircraft.

“Thanks to vast pools of cash sloshing around in the economy, AAM concepts are now proliferating,” Teal Group analyst Richard Aboulafia wrote in a July paper. However, he notes: “The bigger the bubble, the bigger the collapse.”

Aboulafia questions whether start-ups can ever sell enough eVTOL aircraft to offset steep development and production costs.

Exhibitors at the show this year will include electric aircraft developers Bell, Jaunt Air Mobility, Kitty Hawk, Overair, Samad Aerospace and XTI Aircraft, according to NBAA. The companies are targeting similar markets, but with differing designs.

Jaunt, for instance, is developing Journey, a “slowed-rotor compound” all-electric aircraft designed to take off vertically using a main rotor, then transition

Embraer

to forward flight, propelled by wing-integrated propellers. It will have a 70-87nm (129-161km) range and a top speed of 152kt (282km/h), Jaunt says.

Jaunt’s partners include BAE Systems, which is helping with flight controls, power management and energy storage, and CAE, which is developing an engineering simulator. Jaunt aims for Journey to be certificated in 2026 and to enter service in 2027.

Bell, which made a splash unveiling its air taxi concept, Nexus, in 2019, will be back at NBAA. Nexus was originally designed as a hybrid-electric aircraft with six ducted fans. Bell has since tweaked to its latest “4EX” variant, which has four fans and an all-electric propulsion system.

Kitty Hawk is developing a single-passenger, eight-propeller eVTOL called Heaviside. Kitty Hawk also formed California eVTOL maker Wisk Aero through a joint venture with Boeing in 2019. Wisk is developing a passenger eVTOL model and plans to start a trial programme in New Zealand.

Business angle California-based Overair is developing a five-passenger, four-propeller eVTOL platform called Butterfly, targeting first flight in 2023, US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification in 2025 and service entry in 2026.

UK company Samad, meanwhile, is developing e-Starling, which it calls the “world’s first hybrid-electric business jet”. The five-passenger aircraft will have four ducted fans, cruise at 250kt and have 540nm of range, the company says.

Another exhibitor, Colorado-based XTI, partnered this year with public holding company Xeriant Aerospace to help develop a fixed-wing, hybrid-electric aircraft called the TriFan 600.

In a January report, consultancy Deloitte estimates the US AAM market will be worth $115 billion annually by 2035, with passenger and cargo operations each accounting for about half. More than 200 companies globally are developing eVTOL aircraft, and private eVTOL players had invested $2 billion in such projects as of September 2020, Deloitte says.

The consultancy and others stress that the sector needs government support with regard to certification, standards development and airspace integration.

Alex Krutz, managing director of aerospace and defence advisory firm Patriot Industrial Partners, notes that there are numerous hurdles facing electric aircraft developers.

October 2021 Flight International 57

Joby Aviation

Joby Aviation is involved in joint flight-test activity with NASA

“All that air taxi nonsense is flooding back, albeit with much shorter aircraft ranges,” says Aboulafia.

Comparing eVTOL operations to Uber “neglects the fact” that Uber cars might cost only $10,000, while eVTOL aircraft are expected to cost several million dollars each, he adds. Securities documents show that Lilium has pegged the price of its Lilium Jet at $2.5 million, and Archer Aviation has suggested a $5 million price tag for its eVTOL offering.

Countless other electric-aircraft developers have made news this year. US company Eviation tweaked the design of Alice, an in-development, clean-sheet, fixed-wing electric aircraft. Alice now has a T-tail, changed from a V-tail, two aft-fuselage-mounted propellers, instead of an earlier configuration with one on each wingtip and also on the aft fuselage, and will use two 850hp (634kW) Magnix Magni650 electric powerplants: it initially had three 375hp Magni250s.

The nine-passenger Alice will have a 440nm range, 250kt maximum cruise speed and enter service in 2024, the company has said.

They must meet stringent certification standards, develop sophisticated supply and production systems, deal with local noise regulations and address battery density and infrastructure challenges. Commercial success requires their aircraft to be competitive with established transportation options, meaning developers must keep a lid on costs – a difficult task, because initial designs are intended to be piloted, says Krutz. Eventually, developers hope to transition to full autonomy, which will reduce expenses and open an extra passenger seat.

Developers say eVTOL designs will be financially viable as air taxis partly because they will be less expensive to operate than conventional aircraft.

But Aboulafia says operating expenses are only part of the equation.

Public benefit Embraer also has skin in the game, having in 2020 formed Eve Urban Air Mobility, a subsidiary aiming to have its eVTOL aircraft flying passengers by 2026. Eve has landed orders for hundreds of aircraft and signed operating partnerships with companies worldwide.

California electric aircraft developer Joby Aviation became a public company in August after merging with a SPAC called Reinvent Technology Partners. The deal left Joby with $1.6 billion in cash and proceeds.

Joby is developing a single-pilot, four-passenger eVTOL platform that will fly at up to 174kt and have more than 130nm range. It aims for 2023 certification and to begin commercial flights in 2024.

On 1 September, Joby kicked off a 10-day flighttest programme in partnership with NASA, which is working with several eVTOL developers as part of an effort to advance the technology.

The Joby-NASA tests “will help identify gaps in current Federal Aviation Administration regulations and policies to help incorporate AAM aircraft” into national airspace, NASA says.

The FAA has also been collaborating with NASA, and in 2020 released its urban air mobility “Concept of Operations”, a document broadly describing the envisioned air taxi ecosystem and the FAA’s role.

“The gap between manufacturing costs and sales prices obliterates manufacturers" “AAM backers focus on operating costs because they look great,” he says. “But capital costs are the real problem.”

Certificating an eVTOL aircraft will probably cost several hundred million dollars, and manufacturing costs will be steep, Aboulafia says.

“The gap between manufacturing costs and sales prices obliterates manufacturers,” he adds. “With AAM, everyone pretends that… capital costs aren’t a problem at all. The result is a market valued in the trillions.”

Business aviation consultant Brian Foley sees parallels between eVTOL products and the very light jets developed in the early 2000s. Those aircraft – types such as Cirrus Aircraft’s SF50 Vision Jet, Cessna’s Citation Mustang, Eclipse Aerospace’s Eclipse 500 and Honda Aircraft’s HondaJet – were also envisioned as air taxis. That dream never materialised.

58 Flight International October 2021

Archer Aviation

Richard Aboulafia Analyst, Teal Group

Archer’s technology has attracted United Airlines

Virgin Atlantic will be a customer for Vertical Aerospace’s VA-X4 air taxi

The administration says it can certificate electric aircraft through existing regulations, though “some certifications could require the FAA to issue special conditions or additional airworthiness criteria, depending on the type of project”.

The FAA has also established a “Center for Emerging Concepts and Innovation”, through which it helps certificate applicants meet requirements.

Several other eVTOL developers are pursuing SPAC-enabled go-public plans. They include Archer, which in February agreed to complete the process by merging with SPAC Atlas Crest Investment. The companies previously pegged Archer’s enterprise value at $2.7 billion, but in July slashed the figure by 38%, to $1.7 billion. Despite the shift, Archer says its manufacturing, sales and pricing plans remain unchanged.

Also in February, Archer said United Airlines had committed to buy up to 200 of its in-development aircraft, a deal potentially worth $1 billion. Aboulafia notes though that commitments to purchase such in-development products often involve little or no money changing hands.

On target?

Archer aims to achieve certification of its four-passenger eVTOL platform in 2024. In June, the company unveiled a two-seat demonstrator called Maker, which has 12 wing-mounted rotors, a 52nm range and can cruise at up to 130kt.

Archer has partnered with auto giant Stellantis, which will assist with manufacturing and supply, and with Reef Technology, which operates parking facilities – possible eVTOL operating bases. On 2 September, Archer co-founder and co-chief executive Adam Goldstein said he expects passengers will pay $3-4 per mile to travel on Archer’s air taxis. The company has also been embroiled in a lawsuit with Wisk, which sued Archer earlier this year, alleging patent infringement and trade secret theft.

Lilium’s go-public plan, disclosed in March, involves merging with a SPAC called Qell Acquisition. The

eVTOL developer has targeted a 2024 service entry for its six-passenger Lilium Jet, which will have a 135nm range and 152kt cruise speed. In September, Lilium said David Neeleman, founder of Azul, Breeze Airways and JetBlue Airways, will join its board.

UK company Vertical Aerospace made big news in June, announcing that American Airlines, Virgin Atlantic and aircraft lessor Avolon had agreed to purchase up to 1,000 of its in-development VA-X4 air taxis. American and Avolon also said they intend to become equity investors in Vertical.

On the same day, Vertical became the latest eVTOL developer to reveal a go-public plan, saying it intends to merge with Broadstone Acquisition. The five-seat VA-X4 will have about 87nm of range and a top speed of 176kt. Vertical aims to achieve type certification in 2024.

Other US players include eVTOL developer Beta Technologies and two developers of electric short take-off and landing aircraft: Airflow and Electra Aero.

UK-based Faradair Aerospace, Sweden’s Heart Aerospace and France’s Aura Aero are working to bring electric or hybrid-electric commuter aircraft to market.

If the developers are right, electric aircraft might actually be shuttling passengers within a few years.

But Aboulafia notes that start-ups can become more financially precarious as they near “the finish line” – that is, when they start shelling out big money to fund development, certification and production. Indeed, supersonic aircraft developer Aerion shuttered in 2021.

“Carnage is guaranteed,” Aboulafia says. Z

$3-4

Amount per mile passengers will pay to travel on Archer Aviation’s air taxis, according to the company

October 2021 Flight International 59

Virgin Atlantic

Business aviation eVTOL

Boeing

Launch customer All Nippon Airways put Dreamliner into service on 26 October 2011

Jon Hemmerdinger Tampa

O

n 26 October 2011, an All Nippon Airways (ANA) Boeing 787-8 roared off a Tokyo Narita runway, marking the first passenger flight of a jet that changed so much about long-haul travel.

The 787 pushed technological boundaries.

Airlines used the jet to launch hundreds of formerly uneconomical routes. With the 787, Boeing jumped headlong into composite manufacturing and transformed its supply chain. Passengers benefited from a reduced cabin-pressure altitude and larger windows.

Yet Boeing’s execution can be called anything but flawless. Countless troubles, many related to outsourcing an immense amount of 787 work, plagued the programme from its start to the present day.

Ten years in, the 787’s legacy continues unfolding, defined to date by transformative accomplishments and notable setbacks. Boeing says the jet’s merits will propel it well into the future. But production cuts, a delivery halt and slumping demand leave uncertain whether the programme will rebound to its pre-pandemic heyday.

“I think it is the plane of the future, because the first 10 years is just the beginning,” Boeing vice-president of commercial marketing Darren Hulst says. “Longhaul travel requires connectivity… What the 787 did was allow airlines to fly to more points via hubs.”

The jet’s sales success is undeniable. At the end of July, Boeing had logged 1,423 cumulative firm orders for the 787 family, including more than 400 still-undelivered jets.

“From a product and technology standpoint, the 787 changed our industry and it took the customer

60 Flight International October 2021

experience to a whole new level,” says Alex Krutz, managing director of aerospace advisory firm Patriot Industrial Partners. “There were many advancements, such as the composite technology, cabin noise reduction, improved cabin pressurisation and systems advancements, with the 787.”

But the 787 also demonstrated the difficulty of keeping development of wholly new technologies on track, especially when relying on suppliers, he adds.

“Operating metrics are very strong, passenger comfort is excellent – but all this [is] clearly

1,423

Cumulative firm orders for all variants of the 787, as at the end of June 2021

overshadowed by quality and execution issues,” says Michel Merluzeau, aerospace analyst with consultancy AIR. “Ten years on, the 787 looks like it has fallen short of expectations.”

Specifically, he says, the jet has not delivered promised reduced maintenance costs, citing 787 structural issues.

In December 2003, after abandoning its Sonic Cruiser project, Boeing’s board approved plans for the “7E7 Dreamliner”, which it would rename the 787.

The programme’s official launch came in April 2004 with a 50-strong order from ANA. The project called for a 200- to 300-seat family of airliners designed to

Cover story 787 anniversary

With its manufacturing innovation and use of a global supply chain, the 787 has been a big sales success. But its first 10 years of service have also represented a major learning curve for Boeing

A dream first decade? operate 3,500-8,500nm (6,480-15,700km) routes.

The airframer aimed to achieve first flight in 2007 and first delivery and service entry in 2008.

At the time, Airbus was heading in the opposite direction, developing the much larger A380; Boeing thought the market needed something smaller that would be profitable on a wider range of routes.

Powered by either GE Aviation GEnx or Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 turbofans, 787s would be different. Boeing gave the jet a composite fuselage composed of single-piece barrels, a design the airframer says is about 20% lighter than an aluminium fuselage and contributes to a 30% reduction in airframe maintenance costs.

Under pressure Thanks to the composite fuselage, the jet’s cabin is pressurised to the equivalent of 6,000ft (not 8,000ft, as with older jets) – a difference Boeing says reduces headaches and fatigue.

Additionally, the 787 relies more on electricity to power its systems. Older jets use pneumatic systems which take bleed air from the engines, robbing the powerplants of air that could otherwise be used to produce thrust. The bleedless technology boosts efficiency and enables weight saving through eliminating heavy components.

Notably, with the 787 Boeing revamped its design, engineering and production strategy by handing a big portion of the work to a global cadre of suppliers.

“The 787 was very much an outsourced airplane, versus the 777,” says Krutz. Joining the programme under “risk-revenue partnerships”, suppliers took on development of entire systems, advancing technically in the process. “It really created large systems providers.”

First flight did not happen in 2007 as hoped, nor in 2008. Boeing delayed the milestone amid issues

including software problems, improperly installed fasteners, the need for wing-to-body reinforcements and a mechanics’ strike.

On 15 December 2009, the first 787 (a -8) lifted off the earth. Boeing hoped to push the programme through certification in eight and a half months, but it took about 20 months as hiccups continued – including an electrical fire and a Trent 1000 failure.

In August 2011, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certificated the 787-8, a 248-passenger variant (in two classes) with 7,305nm of range.

“Boeing tried to do too much too soon,” Merluzeau says, citing difficulties with integrating advanced systems. “Boeing also learned a hard lesson about relying extensively on suppliers that did not have the expertise [or] experience to lead integrated teams.”

There were delivery delays after certification, as Boeing had to incorporate design changes and retrofit already-completed jets – a substantial job because it had ramped up production before certification was finished. It delivered just three 787s in 2011.

“Boeing learned a hard lesson about relying extensively on suppliers that did not have the expertise or experience to lead integrated teams” Michel Merluzeau Aerospace analyst, AIR

October 2021 Flight International 61

5

Monthly output of the 787 during the Covid pandemic, down from peak production of 14 in 2019

Deliveries jumped to 114 in 2014 and continued an upward swing, hitting 158 aircraft in 2019, when Boeing was ramping production to a programme high of 14 jets monthly. More quality concerns arose that year, including reports of foreign object debris in jets delivered from South Carolina.

Along the way, Boeing brought two other variants to market, delivering the first 787-9 (296 passengers, 7,530nm of range) in 2014, and the first 787-10 (336 passengers, 6,350nm range) in 2018.

Hulst says the 787’s economics, capabilities and versatility allowed airlines to transform long-haul networks, adding some 300 new routes since the jet

787 annual deliveries 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

2011

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021*

Source: Boeing Note: *Through July

62 Flight International October 2021

Stephan Savoia/AP/Shutterstock

The “787’s new technology and systems did take longer to qualify for a variety of reasons. There were many lessons learned,” Krutz says.

The programme also made clear that aircraft with advanced technologies might require eight or nine years to develop and certify, not the seven years expected for previous conventional aircraft, Krutz adds.

On 25 September 2011, Boeing delivered the first 787, powered by Trent 1000s, to ANA. In 2012, the carrier reported that its 787-8s had been burning 17% less fuel per seat on domestic hops, and 21% less on long-haul flights than 767s – figures that aligned with Boeing’s promises.

In 2012, Boeing delivered 46 787s, including the first produced at its new, second production site in North Charleston, South Carolina. Its prime 787 site was in Everett, Washington.

Problems persisted. Regulators grounded 787s for four months in early 2013 following two lithium-ion battery incidents.

Safety incidents included battery fire in a Japan Airlines jet in 2013

entered service. Suddenly, carriers could make money flying from major hubs to distant smaller cities – routes that were unprofitable with larger widebodies.

The jets likewise proved successful on longestablished routes, such as between New York and London, he adds. Japan Airlines flew 787s domestically. Discounters built long-haul networks with 787s. The type’s three variants ensure operators have a jet for a variety of jobs, says Hulst, noting that about 30 of the roughly 80 787 operators have ordered multiple versions.

“Versatility… was something that really changed networks for ever. That’s where the 787 made its mark in history,” Hulst says. “You have hub and spoke, and you have airlines using it for ultra-long haul. And domestic.”

The boom years would not last. In January 2020 – just before the world awakened to the Covid-19 threat – Boeing cut 787 production from 14 to 10 jets monthly, citing the “near-term market outlook”.

Quality control Then the pandemic descended, erasing demand for travel on the international routes for which Boeing designed 787s. Executives slashed output to six examples monthly, then to five. Boeing also set in motion a major manufacturing overhaul – it would stop making 787s in Everett and shift all production to the lower-cost South Carolina site, a consolidation completed this year.

More qualities issues followed. In October 2020, 787 deliveries were halted because “skin flatness” on undelivered jets did not meet precise tolerances.

Boeing has said the issue does not affect flight safety and that it is performing rework to ensure its products meet quality standards.

The airframer delivered just 53 787s in 2020.

Boeing resumed deliveries in March 2021, then halted them again in May after the FAA declined to approve a Boeing-proposed algorithm related to fuselage inspections. Regulations require manufacturers develop fixes before resuming deliveries, the FAA says.

Meanwhile, Boeing accumulated a stockpile of about 100 undelivered 787s, it has said.

In July came another issue. Boeing said gaps in forward-pressure bulkheads of undelivered 787s did

Cover story 787 anniversary

not meet tolerances – a problem also not affecting flight safety. At the time, Boeing said it was reducing production to less than five jets monthly, but has not specified the new rate. The company has not said if delivered jets have similar structural issues.

“We have very stringent design standards,” Hulst says of the issues. “This is us… making sure we are designing and building it to the specifications. We are looking forward to managing this process and getting back to deliveries.”

In 2021 through July, Boeing delivered only 14 787s.

It also logged 27 order cancellations, including 19 787-10s due to Singapore Airlines, which swapped some to 777-9 orders.

Hulst says the 787’s economics have made it a relative winner amid the pandemic. Although airlines grounded swaths of jets 90% of 787s remain “active and flying” – a percentage figure greater than other widebodies, he says, because of the 787’s efficiency.

Leading 787 operators Airline

All Nippon Airways United Airlines Japan Airlines American Airlines Etihad Airways Air Canada Qatar Airways British Airways China Southern Airlines Ethiopian Airlines Air India Hainan Airlines LATAM Airlines Chile

Variants flown

-8/-9/-10 -8/-9/-10 -8/-9 -8/-9 -9/-10 -8/-9 -8/-9 -8/-9/-10 -8/-9 -8/-9 -8 -8/-9 -8/-9

– contractual provisions that spurred a large number of 737 Max cancellations.

In normal times, few airlines might actually exercise such cancellations. But now is not a normal time, and analysts suspect long-haul international travel will take several years to recover.

“As more and more aircraft hit that 12-month point, where the customer has the right to cancel, it’s certainly going to increase pressure on Boeing to come up with solutions not to be left ‘white tails’,” Air Lease executive chair Steven Udvar-Hazy said in August, referring to completed jets without buyers.

BofA financial analyst Ron Epstein has estimated that one-third of Boeing’s undelivered 787s could be subject to delay-induced free cancellations. Analysts have suggested the recent issues could force Boeing to take a forward loss on the 787 programme.

Still, optimism abounds. Boeing has offset some cancellations with recent sales, booking 14 new 787 orders in 2021 through July, including five jets ordered

by Lufthansa. The airframer’s market outlook predicts global demand for 7,480 new widebodies to 2039.

Markus Mainka/Shutterstock

United is the 787’s second-biggest customer, having acquired 63

Darren Hulst Vice-president commercial marketing, Boeing

74 61 48 46 39 37 37 31 27 27 22 22 21

Source: Cirium fleets data Note: *As of 8 September 2021

Sales success As of July, Boeing had delivered a cumulative 1,006 787s – 377 -8s, 568 -9s and 61 -10s. ANA has the most, with 77, followed by United Airlines with 63 and Japan Airlines with 49, Cirium fleets data shows.

Other top operators include Air Canada, American Airlines, British Airways, Etihad Airways, Hainan Airlines and Qatar Airways.

Boeing still holds unfilled orders for 486 787s – 40 -8s, 320 -9s and 126 -10s. Of those, 421 are what Boeing considers “firm” orders, the balance being orders it suspects may not close owing to reasons including the financial condition of the buyer.

As delays continue, Boeing increasingly faces the risk of customers making penalty-free cancellations.

That is because sales contracts typically include clauses that allow customers to walk away from orders when deliveries are more than one year late

“The 787 is the most versatile widebody family in a market that is increasingly focused on versatility”

In use*

Regional revival As recently as June, Boeing chief executive David Calhoun predicted the programme could return to producing 14 jets monthly – all at the single manufacturing site – once demand rebounds.

Analysts have their doubts. The Teal Group’s Richard Aboulafia thinks 14 per month was too many even in 2019. Merluzeau suspects that only by developing new 787 variants – perhaps a derivative optimised for regional travel – can Boeing reasonably expect to return to the heady 2019 levels.

“Without those, there is little chance to witness a return to the unsustainable rates of the past. A regional variant might gain significant traction,” he says.

Hulst dismisses that suggestion, insisting the existing 787 family will meet market needs.

“I don’t think we are looking at other variants,” he says. “The 787 is the most versatile widebody family in a market that is increasingly focused on versatility.”

Rather, Boeing’s focus will be, “How can we best provide what our customers need with the platform we have?” Hulst says. “I think there is continued ability to make these aircraft a leader in the segment.” Z October 2021 Flight International 63

In the USA 2021 has seen the return of a phenomenon many thought had vanished for several years at least: a lack of trained flightcrew.

How has this remarkable turnaround happened?

Pilot re-shortage Pilar Wolfstellar Las Vegas

A

year ago, Cameron Lampert, a flight instructor in the San Francisco Bay area, thought his path to the cockpit of a commercial airliner had hit a brick wall.

With the world in the throes of the global pandemic, passenger carriers went into financial meltdown.

The industry seemed likely to face years of hibernation before recovering from the effects of Covid-19.

But in early 2021, as vaccinations ramped up, air travel – especially in the USA – returned with a vengeance. Passenger traffic climbed dramatically, blowing away expectations, as customers scrambled to book flights after governments eased shelter-inplace orders and other travel restrictions.

So Lampert, who had spent two years shepherding dozens of students through training, went looking for an airline job.

To his surprise, he found open doors.

“Airlines are hiring like mad right now,” he says.

Within a few weeks of applying earlier this summer, he secured a first officer job at a regional airline and began training in September.

In pre-pandemic 2019, with demand for air transport at historic highs and that growth forecast to continue, the industry’s biggest pilot problem was trying to find enough of them.

Looming age-driven retirements at many carriers – about 38% of commercial pilots are over the age of 50, according to simulator and training provider CAE – coupled with an air travel boom, a weak pilot pipeline and staggeringly high training costs, suggested

64 Flight International October 2021

demand would rapidly outstrip the one human resource that makes it all possible: the individuals at the front of the aircraft.

In 2019, then-Boeing chief executive Dennis Muilenburg warned that a growing shortage of flightcrew was “one of the biggest challenges” facing the airline sector.

CAE echoed this assessment in a study released in November 2020, a time when many in the industry were still convinced the pandemic would take years to overcome.

The company put the professional pilot deficit across civil aviation at 264,000 by 2029. In 2021 alone, the company said, 27,000 additional pilots would be needed to accommodate the rebound worldwide.

With at least 3.8% of airline pilots retiring every year for the next 10 years, 126,000 new ones will be needed to offset those retirements and attrition, and another 93,000 to accommodate the industry’s expansion, CAE said. Its analysis added that the global commercial aviation fleet would increase by at least 7,800 aircraft in that period.

38%

Proportion of commercial pilots over the age of 50, according to simulator and training provider CAE

Training Pilot demand

Thiago B Trevisan/Shutterstock

The path to becoming a professional pilot is arduous, lengthy and costly

After a year of pain, the industry has again launched a massive effort to recruit pilots to fly those aircraft. It turns out that CAE might have been right.

The path to becoming a professional pilot is arduous, lengthy and costly. The US Federal Aviation Administration tightened rules in 2013 to require that commercial pilots have – in addition to their certificate – at least 1,500h of flight time before qualifying to fly for passenger or cargo carriers, up from 250h.

Recurring training and regular medical check-ups are also needed to keep those certificates valid.

Pilot education, including private and commercial licences, can easily cost $100,000. After initial training, many aspiring commercial pilots, like Lampert, earn instructor certificates, then teach for several years to log the required flight time.

Carrier schemes Prior to the global health crisis, airlines had set up their own training schemes to alleviate the looming pilot shortage. United Airlines launched “Aviate”, Delta Air Lines has “Propel” and Southwest Airlines set up “Destination 225”.

Desperate to attract candidates, airlines had been luring recruits with generous incentives. Sign-on bonuses were common, as were partial scholarships and low-interest loans to soften the financial burden.

But in March 2020, talk of a pilot shortage vanished as Covid-19 brought the industry to its knees.

As the virus spread and governments imposed lockdowns, air travel demand plunged. Airlines could not cut costs – or shed pilots – fast enough. They slashed networks, sent jets into long-term storage,

7,800

Increase in number of aircraft in commercial airline fleet by 2029, when CAE estimates a pilot deficit of 264,000

furloughed staff and offered others voluntary leave and early retirement.

Within weeks, pilots who had spent decades training, flying and keeping current, found their careers decimated; their certificates worth less than the paper or plastic they were printed on.

Indeed, for the first few months of the pandemic, some airlines and pilot unions encouraged aspiring aviators to pursue other careers, warning of the sector’s uncertainty and instability.

All that changed in early 2021, when much of the world decided it had had enough of lockdowns, Covid-19 be damned. With the success of vaccination efforts, demand for domestic air transport quickly returned, especially in North America, catching airlines unprepared.

This rapid growth created what Geoff Murray, aviation consultant at Oliver Wyman, calls a “pilot re-shortage”. “Airlines had to adopt some different strategies when this crisis hit,” he says. “Early retirement seemed like an easy one, as did the leave programmes.”

But these retirements, Murray says, accounted for as much as 15% or even 20% of the airlines’ October 2021 Flight International 65

Skycolors/Shutterstock

Training Pilot demand

A long-term post-pandemic pilot shortage seems all but inevitable

seniority lists, leaving pilot ranks gutted of experienced aviators.

“Unlike previous recoveries – where [airlines] could recall people and pretty much put them right back into the seat they left – this time the airlines are saying, ‘Holy smokes, we lost all of the senior captains.

So we need to take the senior first officers, and move them into junior captain seats’,” he says.

Recalling pilots is more complex than other work groups due to strict regulatory currency requirements and medical assessments. After months away from the cockpit, pilots must complete recurrent training in their aircraft – or new training if shifting to a different type.

And for the open positions, airlines now must train two pilots: the replacement and the replacement’s replacement, Murray says. Such factors have created a training bottleneck that has proved difficult to alleviate – even with simulators working 24h a day, he adds. “It’s a training conundrum.”

Thousands of airline passengers have in recent weeks experienced the ripple effects.

American Airlines cancelled hundreds of flights in July, and Spirit Airlines scrapped 2,826 flights during 10 days in early August – knocking $50 million off that company’s third-quarter revenue forecast. The airlines have cited staffing issues as contributing to their operational problems.

“The airlines are saying, ‘Holy smokes, we lost all of the senior captains.

So we need to take the senior first officers, and move them into junior captain seats’” Geoff Murray Aviation consultant, Oliver Wyman

66 Flight International October 2021

Both carriers have since recovered from those temporary disruptions and US airlines continue recalling pilots and ramping up hiring. Still, a longerterm post-pandemic pilot shortage remains all but inevitable, and could make itself felt as soon as 2023, analysts say.

According to pilot consultancy Future and Active Pilot Advisory (FAPA), major US carriers hired just 1,685 new pilots between January and July 2021, with half of those going to cargo companies Atlas Air, FedEx and UPS. But while the numbers are progressively rising, they remain far from enough to satisfy the industry’s needs.

In its most recent pilot hiring bulletin, published on 25 August, FAPA says that “pilot interview and hiring numbers keep climbing”.

“The 12 major [US] airlines continue to recruit pilots and celebrate increased hiring numbers,” it says. “At this time, only three of our major airlines have yet to announce new pilot hiring numbers in 2021, all evidence points to the likelihood that they will in the coming months.”

Uneven recovery But as the industry scrambles to get pilot recruitment up to speed, airlines must remain mindful of potential pitfalls accompanying what has proven to be an uneven recovery.

The rapid spread of the virus’s Delta variant during the summer travel months showed just how tenuous the rebound remains.

In early August, airlines cut earnings forecasts for the third quarter as cancellations increased, bookings fell and fears of new restrictions sent a shiver through the sector.

At the end of the same month, the EU once again recommended that its member states re-impose restrictions for US travellers, delivering a blow to the industry, which had expected to welcome back more long-haul corporate travellers in the coming weeks.

Eric Rhea, a flight instructor in Las Vegas, is also on the hunt for his next aviation job. To him, the post-pandemic era feels like a bit like a gold rush, tempered by short-term apprehension that the virus could again strike a blow to the industry.

Regional carriers need to replace pilots leaving for mainline airlines

Rhea’s sights are set on the cockpit of a business jet – also a good choice, according to CAE. With the global business jet fleet set to increase by about 3,600 aircraft in the next decade, it estimates the segment will need 45,000 new cockpit crew by 2029.

Here too, at least 7.6% of pilots will exit the ranks into retirement or the commercial airline sector annually, making room for many more, the company says.

“There’s still a fair number of places hiring, but it feels like it’s slowed down a little bit as people are worried about another shutdown,” Rhea says. “It almost feels like everyone’s kind of just pausing and holding their breath as this Delta variant passes, as opposed to the big mad rush that there was two months ago.”

Strong alternatives FAPA says that Part 135 carriers – named for the section of US regulations that governs most business jet charter and air taxi operations – “remain strong alternatives to flying for the airlines”. Of the 113 operators it monitors, 99 of them are hiring, it adds.

Murray notes that as the recovery has shown to be uneven – across North America and around the world – so too is demand for cockpit crew.

“North America, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East are likely to see the largest shortages, while Europe, Africa and Latin America remain closer to equilibrium,” he wrote in a recent Oliver Wyman study.

Causes vary across geographies. An ageing workforce and barriers to training are affecting the North American market, while operators in China and other regions face surging demand driven by a burgeoning middle class. Murray estimates North America and Asia together will have a deficit of almost 45,000 pilots by 2029 if no mitigating action is taken.

And he anticipates the biggest losers in this war for aviation talent in North America will be regional airlines that fly smaller aircraft on shorter routes for major legacy carriers.

45,000 Number of new pilots CAE estimates to be required by the business jet segment by the end of the decade

68 Flight International October 2021

Sorbis/Shutterstock

Training Pilot demand

“The mainline airlines primarily draw from the regionals,” Murray says. “So the majors are going to be able to find pilots. Where we will feel the pain from the shortage first is with the regionals.”

Oliver Wyman expects annual regional carrier pilot turnover to rise as high as 40%. Under normal circumstances, that number would be in the teens.

The problem may become so critical, Murray adds, that some regional carriers may cease operations or consolidate with others because they cannot find enough qualified flightcrew.

FAPA’s August hiring bulletin notes that some regional airlines are currently offering sign-on bonuses as high as $15,000, and referral bonuses of $10,000.

On 31 August, Envoy Air, a regional carrier affiliated with American, announced a programme by which pilots can earn up to $150,000 in retention compensation and captain bonuses.

But the high cost of training – going from zero hours to a plateau that makes an aspiring commercial pilot employable – remains a significant barrier to entry.

Murray says in the USA there were traditionally two ways to a commercial cockpit career. The first was via the military, which covers all training costs in return for a service commitment, and the second is going it – and paying for it – alone.

“There’s a whole untapped pool of capable, talented young people who need encouragement and sponsorship to make their way into the airline flight deck” Geoff Murray Aviation consultant, Oliver Wyman

“Historically there was never a middle ground between those two paths,” Murray says.

But CAE says that less than 10% of aspiring pilots in North America have access to sufficient funding.

Many would-be pilots raid their savings, borrow from family or friends and take out substantial loans to pay for training.

“If you look at other regions in the world – Western Europe, Asia – the airlines there sponsor students,” Murray notes. “I think we are going to see models like that evolving in the United States and it will benefit the industry tremendously.

“There’s a whole untapped pool of capable, talented young people who need encouragement and sponsorship to make their way into the airline flight deck.”

United’s Aviate, which is looking to train 5,000 pilots in the next 10 years, is already going there. The programme offered more than $2 million in scholarships this year to help finance training for candidates who might otherwise struggle to afford the education. United also partners with financial institutions to offer loans at favourable conditions.

UK-based flight school Skybourne Academy, which trains pilots for British Airways, EasyJet and India’s IndiGo, recently acquired a flight school in Vero Beach, Florida, and is working on bringing its European model to the USA. “Every pilot at Skybourne is heading towards an airline,” says chief executive Lee Woodward. While candidates do not receive a guaranteed job offer from the outset, the school makes sure they are suited to an aviation career before taking their first lesson.

“Our focus is driven by quality. We are very selective about who we take in, which is what our partner airlines want us to do.” This professionalisation of the selection process gives the school’s airline partners the confidence to grant conditional offers, as well as some financial support, without much risk.

Woodward says the 18-month coronavirus crisis has given the industry time to rethink how it sources pilots and to consider improvements.

“There will be no pilot shortage if we remove the barriers to entry,” Woodward says. “We need more creative, innovative and equitable funding solutions, and to find ways of better diversifying what we do.”

But after the repeated shocks of the past 20 years – 9/11, the global financial crisis and now the Covid-19

CASE STUDY: UK

Global Britain gated and grounded The UK’s job-seeking pilots have arguably been affected by the crisis more than most, due to tough travel rules and their licences no longer being recognised in EU countries Murdo Morrison London

Skybourne Academy

J UK-based Skybourne Academy is bringing its training model to Florida

pandemic – is aviation as stable and attractive a career as the industry likes to think it is?

“Aviation is an extremely resilient industry,” Woodward says, adding that after every crisis the sector has returned to a growth trajectory, and come back stronger.

“The pilot profession is as attractive, maybe even more attractive, than ever,” says Murray. Career prospects today, he says, are “unlike anything we have seen in decades”.

Both Rhea and Lampert, on the cusp of launching into aviation’s big leagues, agree.

“This is a very stable career,” says Rhea. “You might bounce around a little bit at first. It’s hard to get that first break because everyone wants the bare minimum of 1,500h. But once you get in that first job, then the world’s really your oyster in terms of where you want to go.”

“Nothing’s changed for me,” Lampert adds. “If you want to go do it, you just do it. And now is probably the best time to give it a shot.” ◗ 70 Flight International October 2021

ob prospects for out-of-work or would-be pilots in the USA and a handful of other countries are looking up. However, in much of Europe, and particularly the UK – where complicated and ever-changing Covid-19 travel rules put a dampener on hopes for a summer overseas tourism boost – the situation could hardly be more different.

The reliance of the UK aviation sector on longhaul markets such as Australia and the USA, which have largely shut their borders, has compounded the problem. This is despite the aspirations of the Boris Johnson government to create a free-trading “global Britain” following the country’s vote to leave the EU. A further blow for pilots will come from the winding up of the government’s furlough scheme at the end of September. The British Airline Pilots’ Association (BALPA) has estimated that 51% of air transport workers were on the programme on 31 July – the highest percentage of any industry. “While other sectors have been able to get up and running, aviation is still essentially in lockdown,” observes BALPA acting general secretary Martin Chalk.

UK carriers, aware of the challenges of recruiting or training experienced replacements when recovery comes, have largely avoided mass lay-offs by using the furlough scheme or asking pilots to accept temporary part-time contracts – or reduced salaries. Chalk is sympathetic to the employers’ plight. “Pilots are desperate to get back to work, but unless airlines can get back to something like they were operating in 2019, it’s difficult to see how that can happen,” he says.

Aviation is one of the few sectors where businesses are still being asked to “take steps to protect the rest of society”, says Chalk, but “we feel abandoned by the government right now”. While other European

Training Pilot demand The crisis has compounded mental health concerns for some flightcrew, says charity Pilots Together

Christina Rose Pix/Shutterstock

have been put on hold by the crisis in touch with mentors. Also offered are discounted refresher training through partners, as well as regular career webinars. Pilots pay a small monthly membership fee.

The organisation’s aim is to help recently-qualified pilots “stay connected with the industry and ready for the ramp-up”, says chief executive and founder Karen Bath.

Despite the grim situation, there have been positive signs. Wizz Air said on 13 September that it is reinstating pilot salaries to pre-Covid-19 levels from 1 October. Like many of its counterparts, the Hungarian low-cost carrier had agreed pay cuts with pilots in lieu of redundancies. Wizz is also recruiting 200 pilots by December as it looks to triple the size of its fleet to 500 Airbus narrowbody aircraft. It follows an announcement in July by rival Ryanair that it plans to recruit 2,000 pilots.

However, for UK pilots simply moving to where the work is may be tricky. The Brexit agreement that followed the country’s formal withdrawal from the EU in January 2021 does not include full mutual recognition of pilot licences. UK-issued licences – even if they were obtained while the nation was a member of the European Union Aviation Safety Agency

Career advice So far, the organisation, which raises funds from contributions, has helped around 350 pilots with everything from career advice to financial support to stay current on type or retrain, including for non-aviation jobs such as driving trucks or trains. While some pilots, deep into careers and well-paid, can afford to retire or take a sabbatical, this does not apply to all, says Bateman: “A lot of pilots we are helping are new starters, with high levels of debt and certainly not on pop star wages.”

The charity’s aid goes beyond career coaching.

In August it launched a text-based support service, staffed by volunteers, called #WePilots, for colleagues struggling with their mental health. It is free and available 24 hours, every day of the year. As a result of the crisis, many pilots are experiencing anxiety, depression and loneliness, “issues that are often taboo or stigmatised in the profession”, says Pilots Together.

Resilient Pilot is another initiative, a not-for-profit venture intended to put new pilots whose careers

Sanja Radivojevic/Shutterstock

markets such as France and Germany saw traffic levels return to between 40% and 60% of 2019 levels over the summer, the UK was stuck at way below even that. Many pilots, he says, have survived the crisis so far – but some are running out of cash, and “getting through winter will be difficult”.

The hardships facing many pilots has led to the launch of at least two support groups in the UK. When airline pilot Scott Bateman helped found the Pilots Together charity in mid-2020 to support industry colleagues who had lost their jobs, he thought it would “last a year”.

Eighteen months or so later, he admits that “as time has gone on, we have realised that there are elements of our community who are just not being supported.

We are planning for a long term future.”

Wizz Air is recruiting pilots this year and has restored salaries to pre-crisis levels

(EASA) – are no longer valid for EU-registered aircraft, and vice versa. The same applies to cabin crew and maintenance engineers.

Pilots can apply for an EU licence through an EASA member state’s national aviation authority, and several Britons did this before Brexit took effect. UK pilots still can, but backlogs mean the process can be time-consuming. In September, Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary said the Irish-headquartered carrier would still be recruiting UK-licensed pilots to operate non-EU routes from UK bases, but suggested that the value of a UK licence had deteriorated after Brexit.

With European markets recovering faster than the UK, and airlines in the USA and elsewhere recruiting again, for British pilots simply “getting on one’s bike” to find a job is not possible, in the short term at least. This is why BALPA has urged the government to restore mutual recognition of EU and UK licences.

The restriction is a major barrier to mobility, believes Bateman. “If we could transfer licences, people would be leaving in their droves,” he says. ◗ October 2021 Flight International 71

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72 Flight International October 2021

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October 2021 Flight International 73

From yuckspeak to tales of yore, send your offcuts to murdo.morrison@flightglobal.com

Emirates’ latest TV commercial is not for those lacking a head for heights. The 30s clip shows a close-up of an Emirates cabin crew member holding up various messages on cardboard signs (Love Actually or Bob Dylan-style, depending on your era) highlighting the easing of travel restrictions to the UAE. Fairly unremarkable, until the camera pans out and the audience sees that she is actually standing on the needle-like pinnacle of the Burj Khalifa, 828m above ground – behind her an awe-inspiring or stomachchurning panoramic view of Dubai’s skyline, depending on your attitude to altitude.

The press release says the cabin crew member’s vertigo-defying achievement – filmed without any special effects – puts her among a select few who have perched on top of the world’s tallest building, including Tom Cruise and the Crown Prince of Dubai.

But why no namecheck for the brave Emirates employee, surely going very much above the call of duty? The text accompanying a behind-the-scenes video explains: “A casting call was put out to Emirates’ very own cabin crew team and while there were some willing and capable candidates, a professional skydiving instructor was cast to ensure the highest levels of safety.”

Artmark

Top that

The licence-built BAC One-Eleven is now a ‘national heritage treasure’

Happy ending

Emirates

From the US FAA’s preliminary accident notifications for 4 August: Neither the 15 passengers nor the two crew members on a Transnorthern Aviation Douglas DC-3 were injured when the aircraft suffered an excursion after touchdown in Alaska. And although it “veered off” the runway “into the mud”, says the authority, the aircraft escaped with only minor damage.

Quite the relief, but you would surely expect nothing less from, er, Goodnews airport.

From the archive

1921 Pescara’s garden

1946 Job requirements

After numerous trials, and after having rebuilt his transmission and other details of his helicopter, M. Pateras Pescara is now reported to be satisfied with the behaviour of the machine, and to have succeeded not only in making it rise on several occasions, but also in lifting at will one end or the other, in turning, and in descending slowly. No attempt has yet been made at high flights, nor at completing a circuit, as the garden in which the machine is being tried is too small to allow of this.

We understand, however, that the machine is being dismantled, and will be exhibited at the forthcoming Paris Aero Show. After the closing of the show it is to be thoroughly tested in France, at Villacoublay, when prolonged flights will, presumably, be attempted.

Hundreds of applications are being received every week by British European Airways from girls in every walk of life who want to be stewardesses on the Continental air routes, and many of them are seeking the job because they want to travel, or to meet famous people, or just because the job is “different.”

But B.E.A. has made it clear that such jobs are for serious-minded working girls; glamour girls need not apply. Applicants must have intelligence, courtesy, and know at least one foreign language besides being of good appearance. Most of all, they must have “the right attitude of mind” towards the job; they must regard themselves as “true servants of the public” and be prepared to wear the airline’s uniform, salute senior officers—and forgo nail-varnish!

74 Flight International October 2021

Straight & Level

Transport of a tyrant Ceausescu: the not-so-great dictator

Nest of luck

You can’t really call yourself a dictator if you don’t have your own personal jet and, as unlikely as it seems, former communist Romanian leader Nicolae Ceausescu’s was a British BAC One-Eleven, licence-built in the Warsaw Pact state.

His presidential aircraft – manufactured in 1986 under the Rombac programme – came up for auction in May and, after being purchased by a US citizen, was donated in July to Romania’s national aviation museum.

Auction house Artmark says the twinjet (YR-BRE), parked at Bucharest airport, served as the leader’s shuttle until 1989. The ministry of culture has classified it as a mobile national heritage treasure.

One of two on offer, alongside YR-BRI, it was sold among other lots including a less extravagant presidential transport – a 1974 Hillman Hunter given to Ceausescu by the Shah of Iran.

Only nine Rombac One-Elevens were built – YR-BRI was the last – but they were still more popular than Ceausescu. After he was arrested and sentenced to death, hundreds are said to have volunteered for his firing squad.

Technicians inspecting an Airbus A320, brought in for maintenance after sitting at St Athan airport for almost a year, were surprised to find a pair of kestrel chicks nesting in the APU exhaust system.

The Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals was alerted to the discovery in the hangar of MRO specialist Caerdav. Its inspector, Simon Evans, and engineer Colin Harrison were able to extract the baby kestrels, who had not eaten for several days.

The chicks were named Umit and Lucky after the two men who found them. Lucky is certainly apt. As base maintenance manager Paul Nash explains: “Umit and Luciano, known as Lucky, put some water in a bowl and some pieces of cooked chicken in another in the hope the chicks would feed. When they checked 15 minutes later, the food and water was gone.

“We were all relieved to see the chicks removed without harm. Normally we would operate the APU before entering the hangar to carry out function checks – this wasn’t needed, otherwise the chicks would have met an untimely and scary end.”

1971 German getaways

1996 Floating coaches

Charter business is booming in Germany. About 60 jets are at present operated by German charter carriers, mainly to the Mediterranean. The number of charter passengers carried in 1971 is expected to be about 35 per cent greater than the 1970 figure.

Aeroflug of Dusseldorf intends to buy two secondhand BAC One-Elevens and to operate them through a subsidiary company under the name “Interfly”.

Later the fleet is expected to be expanded to five jets. At the moment this company is operating business aircraft from Dusseldorf airport. Central Air Luftfahrtgesellschaft of Hannover has even more ambitious plans. Although this company has not yet been active in the air transport field it wants to buy five second-hand Boeing 727s and 707s.

A Dutch transport ministry report says that airships could be used as an alternative to coaches in the long-distance holiday market. Researchers at the local Delft university have come to the same conclusion. The government ministers and university researchers both see the airship as a potential way to solve traffic jams on European motorways, where it could be an alternative to long-distance coach services which carry holidaymakers as far as the Mediterranean. A poll among Dutch coach-users indicates that there is an interest in travelling by airships instead of by bus.

The researchers believe that there is a future for an airship which can carry up to 400 passengers at a speed of 70kt (130km/h).

October 2021 Flight International 75

Letters

Commonwealth of Australia

Going for woke It is disappointing to see that your publication has joined the legions who have been drinking the ‘woke’ Kool-Aid. By this I mean the fact that you felt it necessary to comment about, if not rebut, Peter Parsons’ letter ‘Emissions: impossible?’ (Flight International, August 2021).

The point Mr Parsons was making is that of all the CO2 in the atmosphere, only 3% comes as the result of human activity.

So continuing to focus on “exciting developments and innovations”, as you say, will be a great way to reduce costs, reduce noise and emissions – but none of this will make a jot of difference to the amount of carbon in the atmosphere.

Many nations joined forces for the Kabul airlift at the end of August

Call for a real ‘International Rescue’

Peter Mountfort Auckland, New Zealand

The TV puppet show of olden days Thunderbirds was clever, entertaining and yet prophetic. The problems of today mean the need for rapid response to communities and natural environments in distress has never been greater.

Air power, although rubbished by ‘populists’ and ‘experts’ (no doubt sincerely trying to save planet Earth and the lifeforms thereon) is the only way to win time and save thousands of lives (Flight International, September 2021).

Modern air forces operate large fleets of very capable airlifters for strategic and tactical delivery, some amazingly effective at both, and yet efficient international teamwork and fundraising is not always there to use them for humanitarian purposes.

What about an independent, non-political central body – generally along the proven and amazingly successful format of the UK’s Royal National Lifeboat Institution – for taking full, publicly and corporatelygifted control for bringing aerial assets and funding together?

What a fantastic chance for nations, manufacturers and politicians to combine their skills and resources, forget self-interest and fly flat-out for the good of our future and our fragile globe.

The Hunter’s lasting quality

Craig Hoyle/FlightGlobal

David Stevens Woking, Surrey, UK

Hunter: still going strong

I recently saw the aircraft of Hawker Hunter Aviation in action and must admit to being in awe of them. Despite being a design that is 70 years old, the Hunter can still show a clean pair of heels to many more modern types: its flight duration being far higher than that of a BAE Systems Hawk, for example.

Vintage jets also have one thing which the modern types don’t: they are built like a brick privy! This includes the Hunter’s Rolls-Royce Avon engine.

In the quest for lighter, cheaper and more fuel-efficient performance, it seems toughness has been sacrificed on the engineering altar.

Years from now, when the last Lockheed Martin F-35 goes to the breakers, I bet that the distinctive sound of an Avon will still be heard in the sky.

Sir Sydney Camm would be proud!

Edward Philpott Neston, South Wirral, UK

We welcome your letters about our coverage, or any other aerospace-related topic. Please email flight.international@flightglobal.com, or write to: The Editor, Flight International, 1st Floor, Chancery House, St Nicholas Way, Sutton, Surrey, SM1 1JB. Letters should be no longer than 350 words in length, and supplied with the correspondent’s name and location. Letters may also be published on FlightGlobal.com, and do not necessarily represent the views of the editor.

76 Flight International October 2021

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78 Flight International October 2021

Having been the first female cadet pilot for Singaporean low-cost carrier Scoot, Nicole Chee is blazing a trail in the right-hand seat of a 787 and hoping to inspire others to realise their potential

Spotting an opportunity of the Dreamliner is its performance, given its typical cruising altitude is 41,000-43,000ft.

“What you enjoy as the pilot is how clean and efficient she is,” says Chee. “We can climb higher and fly faster… because of how the 787 is made, with the composites and wing. Therefore, we are not involved in a lot of the traffic jams that you find up there.”

Greg Waldron Singapore

S

coot first officer Nicole Chee always had a passion for aviation, but it was only the disappearance of a single word from a job advertisement that opened the path to the right-hand seat of a Boeing 787.

Chee fondly recalls childhood outings to Singapore’s Changi beach, which lies squarely on the approach for the airport’s two parallel runways. She soon discovered that she was an avid plane spotter.

“Every weekend, I was looking at aircraft coming in and out,” she says.

Yet, the path to becoming a pilot took many turns.

As a teenager she considered joining her school’s youth flying club, but schedule clashes prevented this. After graduating from university, she worked in marketing for a while, before joining Singapore Airlines (SIA) as a flight attendant.

After five years as cabin crew, Chee took up an office job at SIA, amid a general hiring freeze for new cadets. Then, in 2015, the freeze was lifted, and Chee spotted something unusual about a job advertisement for pilots from Scoot, SIA’s low-cost unit.

82 Flight International October 2021

Nicole Chee/Scoot

Hiring surprise “I saw that they had removed the one very key word, and they were no longer looking [only] for male candidates. Before that, [airlines] had always said ‘we are looking for male candidates’, but in 2015, when they started hiring after the freeze, they removed that one small word – ‘male’. I applied and never looked back.”

Not only was Chee the only woman in her cohort of 25 cadets, but she was also Scoot’s first female cadet pilot. Her training involved considerable time studying in Singapore, as well as flight training in Western Australia. Finally, after two challenging years, Chee realised her ambition of becoming an airline pilot aboard the 787.

Chee has warm words for the Boeing type. She likes the spacious cockpit, but her favourite aspect

Breathtaking views Across the Scoot network, Chee’s favourite arrival destination is Australia’s Gold Coast airport, given the challenges involved in the non-precision approach to runway 32. This requires flying over the coast, followed by a sharp turn to line up with the runway.

“The view is really breathtaking,” says Chee. “Once you are visual with the runway, you see the runway with the backdrop of a coastline just beyond that.”

Chee was the first woman on Scoot’s pilot training programme

Women in aviation

Another favourite is Japan’s Osaka Kansai, also characterised by its over-water approaches, and Honolulu, Hawaii.

Chee could not have anticipated that three years into her career as a pilot the industry would confront its greatest crisis, in the form of the Covid-19 pandemic. When the virus first emerged in Wuhan in early 2020, Scoot was immediately affected, given that the Chinese city is part of the carrier’s 787 network.

Chee has been fortunate to keep flying during the pandemic period. She also states that although the crisis has been hard on pilots and the aviation industry, it should in no way discourage aspiring candidates. She points out that aviation is but one of several industries that have been deeply affected by Covid-19, but that it remains essential.

“If you have the passion to be a pilot, there shouldn’t be anything stopping you – things will improve and things are actually recovering. Pilots fill a very necessary role for transportation.”

Nicole Chee/Scoot

Chee enjoys the Dreamliner’s spacious cockpit – and its smooth performance

“One thing I’ve always believed from the start is that the aircraft doesn’t know whether you are male or female. It will do whatever you tell it to do”

Vital service She notes that Scoot is using some of its 787s for cargo flights, delivering essential goods, and points out the key role that aviation is playing in the distribution of Covid-19 vaccines.

Chee also has perspectives on getting more girls interested in flying. When she was young, she recalls that the media drove the impression that being a pilot was strictly for men. Newspapers, magazines and television programmes invariably portrayed pilots as male. While consumption has changed with the rise of social media, Chee feels it is important to provide visibility of women working in the cockpit.

“When you talk about reaching out to the girls who are now in primary and secondary school and the younger generation, it’s just about letting them know it’s possible, showing them that there are women pilots, and it’s a possibility.”

Chee adds that an aircraft, being a machine, is entirely indifferent to whether a man or a woman is at the controls.

“One thing I’ve always believed from the start is that the aircraft doesn’t know whether you are male or female. It will do whatever you tell it to do.” Z

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October 2021 Flight International 83