Ross, CA | web: 0086863
Marin County Market Update Third Quarter 2015 SAN FRANCISCO BROKERAGE 117 Greenwich Street San Francisco, CA 94111 t. 415.901.1700
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All data within this document is pulled from the Bay Area Real Estate Information Services (BAREIS)
A MESSAGE FROM: Jeffrey G. Gibson Senior Vice President and Brokerage Manager In the third quarter of 2015, Marin County’s real estate market remained steady in the under $3 million range, according to data pulled from the Bay Area Real Estate Information Services (BAREIS). However, the over $3 million range soared, driven largely by the County’s record-breaking sale of Locksley Hall in Belvedere at $47.5 million. Total closed volume for all of Marin County from Q3 2014 to Q3 2015 increased 9% from $847,999,792 to $928,001,337. I invite you to review the following charts and data depicting the market details for Marin County, Mill Valley, Ross, Kentfield, Sausalito, Tiburon, Belvedere and San Rafael.
MARIN COUNTY MARKET SUMMARY (SFH) While the upward movement for all of Marin County between Q3 2012 - Q3 2013 was steep, the overall closed volume between Q3 2014 and Q3 2015 maintained a high elevation. Notably, the price for a single family home sold over the $3 million mark rose from an average of $4,346,205 to $5,789,054, a price expansion of 33 percent. Each town in the county experienced different variations of expansion and retraction though San Rafael in particular, best showcased the overall trend of inventory constricting under the $1M mark, while homes between the $1M - $3M are becoming more readily available.
Q3-2015 MARIN COUNTY VOLUME
24%
25%
< $1.0M $1.0M - $3.0M $3.0M and up
51%
TIBURON AND BELVEDERE SUMMARY (SFH) The momentous sale of the Julia Morgan designed “Locksley hall” in Belvedere contributed in part to the astronomical numbers found in Tiburon and Belvedere in Q3 of 2015. At a closing price of $47.5 million, this transaction was a record breaking close for the entire county, and spiked the closed volume for properties over $3M by 188 percent from Q3 the previous year. Along with this, transactions closed in Tiburon and Belvedere which were under $1M were null, yet the number of closed transactions above $3M significantly jumped up by 57 percent.
Q2-2015 - TIBURON & BELVEDERE VOLUME
25%
0%
< $1.0M $1.0M - $3.0M $3.0M and up
75%
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MARIN COUNTY
SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES
Across the Golden Gate Bridge from San Francisco lies Marin County, an area renowned for its natural beauty. Marin County is home to Muir Woods redwood forest, the Marin Headlands, Stinson Beach, the Point Reyes National Seashore and Mount Tamalpais. Most of the county’s population resides on the eastern side, with the interior of the county consisting of large areas of agricultural and open space.
Q3 AVERAGE SALES PRICE (SFH) PRICE RANGE
2012
2013
2014
2015
UP TO $1 MILLION
$649,328
$713,979
$747,617
$1 - $3 MILLION
$1,523,154
$1,576,260
$1,603,609
$3 MILLION AND UP
$4,241,000
$6,006,432 $4,346,205
% CHANGE (2015 v 2014)
$1,600,000
$778,492
4%
$1,200,000
$1,584,769
-1%
$5,789,054
33%
$1,400,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $2012
TOTALS
$980,326
$1,233,176
$1,367,742
1,480,066
2013
Average List Price
8%
2014
2015
Average Sales Price
Q3 CLOSED UNITS: # OF SIDES (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2012
2013
2014
2015
UP TO $1 MILLION
461
388
299
290
-3%
$1 - $3 MILLION
191
295
281
297
6%
$3 MILLION AND UP
15
21
40
40
0%
667
704
620
627
1%
2012
2013
2014
2015
UP TO $1 MILLION
$299,340,211
$277,024,039
$223,537,350
$225,762,733
1%
$1 - $3 MILLION
$290,922,484 $464,996,638
$450,614,252
$470,676,464
4%
$173,848,190
$231,562,140
33%
TOTALS
(2015 v 2014)
1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 2012
2013
2014
2015
Q3 CLOSED VOLUME (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE (2015 v 2014)
$1,000,000,000 $900,000,000 $800,000,000 $700,000,000 $600,000,000 $500,000,000 $400,000,000 $300,000,000
$3 MILLION AND UP
$63,615,000
$126,135,070
$200,000,000 $100,000,000
TOTALS
3
$653,877,695
$868,155,747
$847,999,792
$928,001,337
9%
$2012
2013
2014
2015
MILL VALLEY
SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES Mill Valley, about 14 miles north of San Francisco, is located on the western and northern shores of Richardson Bay. Mill Valley is known for being a town with a strong artistic heritage, with its many art galleries and town sponsorship of the Mill Valley Film Festival, which is part of the California Film Institute. The combination of Mill Valleyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s idyllic location beneath Mount Tamalpais and its ease of access to San Francisco has made it a popular home for many commuters.
Q3 AVERAGE SALES PRICE (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2012
2013
2014
2015
$750,997
$829,898
$800,758
$821,575
3%
$1 - $3 MILLION
$1,540,463
$1,572,979
$1,611,451
$1,660,466
3%
$3 MILLION AND UP
$3,858,750 $4,760,000
$4,334,167
$3,632,143
-16%
UP TO $1 MILLION
TOTALS
$1,213,950
$1,338,110
$1,622,429 $1,654,863
(2015 v 2014)
$1,800,000 $1,600,000 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $2012
2013
Average List Price
2%
2014
2015
Average Sales Price
Q3 CLOSED UNITS: # OF SIDES (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2012
2013
2014
2015
UP TO $1 MILLION
56
34
19
17
-11%
$1 - $3 MILLION
47
59
60
58
-3%
(2015 v 2014)
120 100 80 60 40
4
1
6
7
17%
107
94
85
82
-4%
2012
2013
2014
2015
UP TO $1 MILLION
$42,055,850
$28,216,530
$15,214,400
$13,966,775
-8%
$1 - $3 MILLION
$72,401,780
$92,805,787
$96,687,050
$96,307,005
0%
$3 MILLION AND UP
$15,435,000
$4,760,000
$26,005,000
$25,425,000
-2%
$129,892,630
$125,782,317
$137,906,450
$135,698,780
-2%
$3 MILLION AND UP
TOTALS
20 2012
2013
2014
2015
Q3 CLOSED VOLUME (SFH) PRICE RANGE
TOTALS
SERVING MARIN COUNTY AND SAN FRANCISCO sothebyshomes.com/sanfrancisco
% CHANGE (2015 v 2014)
$140,000,000 $138,000,000 $136,000,000 $134,000,000 $132,000,000 $130,000,000 $128,000,000 $126,000,000 $124,000,000 $122,000,000 $120,000,000 $118,000,000 2012
2013
2014
2015
4
ROSS and KENTFIELD
SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES
The scenic residential towns of Ross and Kentfield, with their small-town feel, tree-covered hills, winding creeks, graciously landscaped streets and gardens, serve as an ideal oasis for both locals and visitors alike. Ross is located just north of San Francisco and is bordered by Kentfield and Greenbrae to the east. Kentfield is home to the main campus for the College of Marin, which is well known for its theatre department.
Q3 AVERAGE SALES PRICE (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2012
2013
2014
2015
$742,257
$847,000
$900,000
$800,000
-11%
$1 - $3 MILLION
$1,528,341
$1,958,310
$1,936,379
$1,873,250
-3%
$3 MILLION AND UP
$4,790,000
$6,476,443
$5,062,045
$4,568,080
-10%
$1,797,771
$2,488,348
$2,889,120
$2,692,666
-7%
UP TO $1 MILLION
(2015 v 2014)
$3,500,000 $3,000,000 $2,500,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 $2012
TOTALS
2013
Average List Price
2014
2015
Average Sales Price
Q3 CLOSED UNITS: # OF SIDES (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
40
2012
2013
2014
2015
UP TO $1 MILLION
7
1
1
1
0%
$1 - $3 MILLION
17
27
23
16
-30%
20
$3 MILLION AND UP
4
4
11
8
-27%
10
-29%
-
TOTALS
28
(2015 v 2014)
32
35
25
2012
2013
2014
2015
$5,195,800
$847,000
$900,000
$800,000
-11%
$1 - $3 MILLION
$25,981,800
$52,874,363
$44,536,711
$29,972,000
-33%
$3 MILLION AND UP
$19,160,000
$25,905,770
$55,682,500
$36,544,640
-34%
TOTALS
$50,337,600
$79,627,133
$101,119,211
$67,316,640
-33%
35 30 25
15
5 2012
2013
2014
2015
Q3 CLOSED VOLUME (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE (2015 v 2014)
$120,000,000 $100,000,000
UP TO $1 MILLION
$80,000,000 $60,000,000 $40,000,000
5
$20,000,000 $2012
2013
2014
2015
SAUSALITO
SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES The waterfront town of Sausalito is located just across the Golden Gate Bridge from San Francisco. The charming town offers an array of boutique shops, art studios and galleries, restaurants and outdoor cafes and bistros, many with incredible views of the San Francisco Bay and city skyline. Sausalito is adjacent to the protected areas of the Golden Gate National Recreation Area, a popular camping and tourist destination.
Q3 AVERAGE SALES PRICE (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2012
2013
2014
2015
UP TO $1 MILLION
$858,200
$680,000
$727,500
$900,000
24%
$1 - $3 MILLION
$1,681,563
$1,735,622
$1,803,429
$2,207,429
22%
$3 MILLION AND UP
$3,575,000
$5,241,000 $3,989,000
n/a
n/a
(2015 v 2014)
$2,500,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 $2012
TOTALS
$1,522,750 $2,085,587
$1,755,405 $2,120,267
2013
Average List Price
21%
2014
2015
Average Sales Price
Q3 CLOSED UNITS: # OF SIDES (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2012
2013
2014
2015
UP TO $1 MILLION
5
3
5
1
-80%
$1 - $3 MILLION
8
15
14
14
0%
$3 MILLION AND UP
1
3
2
n/a
n/a
14
21
21
15
-29%
2012
2013
2014
2015
UP TO $1 MILLION
$4,291,000
$2,040,000
$3,637,500
$900,000
-75%
$1 - $3 MILLION
$13,452,500
$26,034,333
$25,248,000
$30,904,000
22%
$3 MILLION AND UP
$3,575,000
$15,723,000
$7,978,000
n/a
n/a
25
(2015 v 2014)
20 15
TOTALS
10 5 2012
2013
2014
2015
Q3 CLOSED VOLUME (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE (2015 v 2014)
$50,000,000 $45,000,000 $40,000,000 $35,000,000 $30,000,000 $25,000,000 $20,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,000,000 $5,000,000
TOTALS
$21,318,500
$43,797,333
36,863,500
SERVING MARIN COUNTY AND SAN FRANCISCO sothebyshomes.com/sanfrancisco
$31,804,000
-14%
$2012
2013
2014
2015
6
TIBURON and BELVEDERE
SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES
Tiburon occupies most of the Tiburon Peninsula, while the smaller city of Belvedere occupies the southeast portion of the Peninsula. Tiburon is a popular town amongst commuters and tourists, linked by ferry services to San Francisco. The town offers a high concentration of restaurants and boutiques and is the closest mainland point to Angel Island. Belvedere is home to many properties renowned for their spectacular views of the Bay Area, Angel Island, San Francisco, Sausalito, the Golden Gate Bridge and Mount Tamalpais.
Q3 AVERAGE SALES PRICE (SFH) PRICE RANGE UP TO $1 MILLION $1 - $3 MILLION
% CHANGE
2012
2013
2014
2015
$853,057
$802,500
n/a
n/a
n/a
$1,889,968
$1,994,419
$2,070,340
$2,154,333
4%
(2015 v 2014)
$5,000,000 $4,000,000 $3,000,000 $2,000,000 $1,000,000
$3 MILLION AND UP
$4,289,000
$6,295,525
$3,915,906
$7,171,023
83%
$2012
TOTALS
$2,000,126
$2,931,331
$2,732,851
$4,553,620
2013
Average List Price
67%
2014
2015
Average Sales Price
Q3 CLOSED UNITS: # OF SIDES (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2012
2013
2014
2015
UP TO $1 MILLION
7
4
n/a
n/a
n/a
$1 - $3 MILLION
31
34
25
24
-4%
$3 MILLION AND UP
5
12
14
22
57%
43
50
39
46
18%
TOTALS
(2015 v 2014)
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2012
2013
2014
2015
Q3 CLOSED VOLUME (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2012
2013
2014
2015
$5,971,400
$3,210,000
n/a
n/a
n/a
$1 - $3 MILLION
$58,589,000
$67,810,250
$51,758,500
$51,704,000
0%
$3 MILLION AND UP
$21,445,000
$75,546,300
$54,822,690
$157,762,500
188%
TOTALS
86,005,400
146,566,550
$106,581,190
$209,466,500
97%
UP TO $1 MILLION
(2015 v 2014)
$250,000,000 $200,000,000 $150,000,000
7
$100,000,000 $50,000,000 $2012
2013
2014
2015
SAN RAFAEL
SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES Sitting in the heart of Marin County, San Rafael is one of the oldest and largest cities in the county. The cityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s rich history can be seen from the many well-preserved classic homes found in each neighborhood. Residents and visitors alike can enjoy a plethora of shopping and entertainment in the downtown area, or bask in nature on the hiking trails, lakes and views atop nearby Mount Tamalpais.
Q3 AVERAGE SALES PRICE (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2012
2013
2014
2015
UP TO $1 MILLION
$653,380
$739,471
$775,259
$817,363
5%
$1 - $3 MILLION
$1,349,695
$1,392,386
$1,436,026
$1,351,926
-6%
$3 MILLION AND UP
$4,000,000
n/a
5,950,000
$3,030,000
-49%
(2015 v 2014)
$1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $2012
TOTALS
$775,267
$905,901
$1,021,470
$1,036,531
1%
2013
Average List Price
2014
2015
Average Sales Price
Q3 CLOSED UNITS: # OF SIDES (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2012
2013
2014
2015
UP TO $1 MILLION
116
114
84
94
12%
$1 - $3 MILLION
19
39
38
59
55%
(2015 v 2014)
180 160 140 120 100 80 60
$3 MILLION AND UP
1
-
1
1
0%
40 20
TOTALS
136
153
123
154
25%
2012
2013
2014
2015
UP TO $1 MILLION
$75,792,060
$84,299,734
$65,121,750
$76,832,081
18%
$1 - $3 MILLION
$25,644,200
$54,303,045
$54,569,000
$79,763,634
46%
$3 MILLION AND UP
$4,000,000
n /a
$5,950,000
$3,030,000
-49%
TOTALS
105,436,260
2012
2013
2014
2015
Q3 CLOSED VOLUME (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE (2015 v 2014)
180,000,000 160,000,000 140,000,000 120,000,000 100,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000
138,602,779
125,640,750
SERVING MARIN COUNTY AND SAN FRANCISCO sothebyshomes.com/sanfrancisco
159,625,715
27%
2012
2013
2014
2015
8
FEATURED PROPERTIES
STINSON BEACH Web ID: 0087202 | $12,000,000 This house is solid, yet elegantly transparent, due to expansive windows and an open floor plan provides sea views throughout. The Seadrift enclave offers the finest beach lifestyle in Northern California. Jon Taylor and Gloria Smith | 415.722.2812
TIBURON Web ID: 0087559 | $3,395,000 At the end of one of Tiburonâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s best streets is a serene cul-de-sac leading to the secluded circular driveway of this one of a kind home, providing its owners luxurious seclusion, breathtaking panoramic views, and idyllic indoor-outdoor living. Paul Warrin and Kara Warrin | 415.407.7979
STINSON BEACH Web ID: 0087311 | $2,995,000 Hand built by one of the finest builders in West Marin, this home overlooks the cliffs of the Pacific and has access to the tamed trails of the National Golden Gate Parklands. Butch Haze and Rick Teed | 415.250.3988
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