Scenario report final

SCENARIO E P O R T BEOL

beautiful errors of life

amsterdam 2017

TABLE OF CONTEN

04 Uncertainty

Drivers & Introduction

06 First Scenario “Conscious Living”

12 Conclusion & Sources

NTS

10 Second Scenario 14 Selfevaluation

Uncertainty Drivers

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What impact will a technological driven world have on our daily life?

How will Europe cope with the problem of global warming?

Technological Support

SCENARIO 1 CONSCIOUS EUROPE

Business as usual

applying necassary changes

SCENARIO 2 FRAGMENTED EUROPE Technological Takeover SCENARIO REPORT 2035 - BEAUTIFUL ERRORS OF LIFE - AMSTERDAM

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Introduction

A future scenario is not a prediction of the future; it is about creating plausible descriptions of what might happen. Scenarios are like stories carefully built around carefully constructed plots based on trends and uncertainties. Providing new inspiration and ideas to anticipate to necassary changes in a possible future world. This will help contemporary brands to become leading innovator in their range.

In the following report I’m going to describe two different future scenarios. Both of the constructed worlds are based on two different major uncertainties facing our world. The first uncertainty is on an environmental level, and about the global warming , while the other trend is the fast developing technology trend. I have combined the two extremes to build two worlds around them taking place in 2035. Demographically, I put the focus on Europe. I researched these trends and created a scenario based on them, to see how my brand would survive in the future if those two extreme developments would expand and come together. So, two opposite outcomes will be shown in this report.

To write these two scenarios I used the different factors of DE STEP to research into different areas. DESTEP stands for Demographics, Economy, Society, Technology, Environment and Politics.

I hope the following texts will give you an impression of how the world in 2035 could look like.

SCENARIO REPORT 2035 - BEAUTIFUL ERRORS OF LIFE - AMSTERDAM

Conscious Europe It’s 2035 and we are located in Europe. While our population is growing immensely, there is hardly space for everyone. We are following Asia in introducing a two-child policy, to fight the problem of over population. The global economy is more interconnected than ever causing the gap of inequality to fill stepwise between countries around the globe. Advancements in science and medicine, specifically on those over the age of 65, are resulting in a rising human lifespan of 100 years. Also we can see a shift from sickness to enhancing performance. The question of today is: 1 What can you do to help me combat the ageing process (The Future of Almost Everything) ?

All nations realised the importance of climate change and work well together on this hot topic.

The world is a greener place and slowed down. Through an early switch to renewable sources such as solar and hydro-power, energy is used more efficiently and ecological and even lowincome countries are adapting quickly to follow this trend (Renewable Sources - Energy usage 2 Statistics) . Countries are now benefiting from huge investments in Research and Development.

Through an increasing number of immigration and urbanisation the majority of our population lives in sustainable metropolises. Carbon neutral homes with green and reflective ‘cool’ roofing helps 3 reducing energy usage and are combating urban heat effect (Climate of Opportunity) .

Efficient and sustainable produced food is the challenge for agriculture as world population is growing immensely causing food scarcity. It is becoming the norm to grow food in laboratories to eradicate global famine and save resources. The price of lab grown meat in the supermarket has 4 been whittled down to just 4$ (Futurism - Lab Grown meat) .

New regulations in all economical processes introduce a total transparency for customer, government and businesses. Companies are supporting the idea of creative collaborations and sharing. Profiting from each other’s skills in order to achieve better results. The parallel market where collaborative economy companies sell and trade user data is increasing. Businesses can be highly efficient through a collaborative internet of things. By inserting chips in our goods, people can easily can access goods and services when and wherever they need them (Nesta5 collaborative economie) . Businesses unable to adapt quickly enough in this fast paced world, have disappeared. Augmented and Virtual Reality interactions are replacing the traditional interaction between business and consumer. The smart and customizable AI-brands approach the consumer with individualized choices based on big data. Consumers are willing to share more data since businesses need to be open and transparent. Shaping the concept of a fair value 6 exchange (Telegraph - A.I. future) .

We rather use technology as a supporting tool to enhance our lives than let it take over human activities. Gadgets are small, smart and accessible to a majority of people because they are simply cheap. Ordering the products yourself or doing the daily groceries isn’t necessary anymore as our virtual assistants are helping us by doing it all for us. They smartly manage the flood of data and 1 take sustainable decisions (The Future of Almost Everything) .

SCENARIO REPORT 2035 - BEAUTIFUL ERRORS OF LIFE - AMSTERDAM

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SCENARIO REPORT 2035 - BEAUTIFUL ERRORS OF LIFE - AMSTERDAM

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Europe is culturally more diverse than ever and religious traditions are respected and even celebrated. While nations are cooperating and opening borders to balance overpopulation, people can live and work from wherever they like. In order to control the flow of migration the governments need to have more power resulting in a decrease of public privacy. Housing is mostly pre-built and modular, able to adapt to any changes needed. While compactness is becoming the key to housing, our furniture have multiple purposes (The Future of Housing and Home)7.

Europe’s population is focusing more locally. A sense of belonging and creating your own community is one main driver of the society, as solidarity is one of the core values. The humans desire to seek and explore new frontiers is causing a permanent flow of information. While healthcare is seeing a shift from treatment to prevention and science is having the necessary tools to keep us vital throughout the years we like to influence our ageing process. Computer aided diagnosis and the ability to alter our genes makes it possible to correct sick ones and push our bodies even harder with gene fragments (The future of everything, book). 35 will become the new 21 and 60 the new middle aged. Our technological advancements make us even more emotionally sensitive. Wearable devices are displaying our emotional biomarkers and the ones surrounding you. Such devices are used also in workspaces help improving relationships between 8 co-workers and collaborative partners (The future relationships) .

This is a world supported by technology where consumers are connected everywhere. Thanks to smart utilisation of big data, our devices realize whenever we need something and simply order 1 our products online (The Future of Almost Everything) . Green Consumerism has become the norm and we prefer quality over quantity. Suppliers are now focusing on durable and functional products, as the consumer is willing to spend money on that. The dispoable income within the 9 EU area increased to 2000000 EUR million (Euro Area Disposable Personal Income) . Vanished ideas of materialism and ownership have been replaced by smart lightweight living. Enabling effortlessness, flexibility and functionality the ideals of the human being is to stay non-committal.

While people don’t want to own anymore, products will become services (Predictions for the world 10 2030) .

There are hardly any major fashion brands left. Small labels that are forging new relationships and interactions with the consumer in order to adapt to the new value system created by society are taking over the fashion market. Allowing the consumer to play an active role in designing processes, brands are using consumer’s desires and needs to enhance innovation (Fashion 11 Future 2025 Scenario Report) . There are lifelong guarantees for every fashion product purchased. The whole industry tries to refuse non-renewable synthetics and cotton materials, and fashion is now focusing on new smart nano-tech fibres. Clothes don’t need to be washed anymore, they are wrinkle resistant and even UV blocking. Most progressive of the Nanotechnology are the embedded functions into the pieces. Sensors of our wearable devices on the body are creating 12 a “digital skin” (nanowerk - future materials) . These applications together are warning us of an impending heart attack and necessary steps to alter genes can be taken to prevent such diseases.

When it comes to production, China is the leading country around the globe as they are the first ones investing highly in R&D. Being an innovator of the new technologies they are able to produce on a bigger scale. Production in Europe is considered to be exclusive and only achievable for the richer part of the society. Shopping nowadays is a totally different experience compared to 15 years ago. Scanners in stores make it possible to try on any garment being sold in the store by a simple click. Consumer can modify the garment just as they like to have it. While 3D printers make 13 it possible to take the finalized garment home in no time(3D body scanners) .

SCENARIO REPORT 2035 - BEAUTIFUL ERRORS OF LIFE - AMSTERDAM

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Concluding ‘‘ Conscious Europe’’ is a sustainable future possible by smart supporting technological advancements. People are happy even though governments having more power in order to keep the world green and control the overpopulation. Fashion has become totally different with refusing cotton and non-renewable materials; many renewable smart textiles have been developed. Trends are changing quickly as the technology allows it without wasting resources.

SCENARIO REPORT 2035 - BEAUTIFUL ERRORS OF LIFE - AMSTERDAM

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FRAGMEN EUROPE -

DEMOGRAPHIC

- Human lifespan increased to 120 years by medical innovation and technological support - Parts of the world are uninhabitable through the effect of climate change - Wolrd deals with growing population and less space to live with ( increasing number of immigration especially to Europe = liveable space) > strict regulations for getting a visa - Refused refugees are living alternative (floating housing) -> higher death rate

ECONOMY

- Fragmanted global marketplace, as businesses are regionalized and need to source local - Businesses are very secretive about strategy,technology, and production -> Regional competitions for a smaller market, less resources - Many jobs are replaced by artificial intelligence and mechanical robots -> less disposable income + a bigger shift in rich( innovateurs of new technologies) and poor (working class)

SOCIETY

- Society is divided in rich and poor -> creating local communities = Fragmentation - Strong cultural and tribal ideals - Solidarity is one of the core values within the community -> no sharing with other ones - Ăœber connection is creating new dimensions of flood of data -> new mental illnesses, addictions - Unemployment causing discontent -> more civil wars between different communities

ENVIRONMENT

- Fragmented nations are feeling the impact of climate change.

- Low-income countries cannot afford the new technologies to provide sustainable solutions -> Nothern Europe is able to develop sustainable innovations - Climate change made parts of the world uninhabitable -> floating housing is becomeing more common

SCENARIO REPORT 2035 - BEAUTIFUL ERRORS OF LIFE - AMSTERDAM

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NTED TECHNOLOGY

- Technological advancements are taking over human tasks -> jobs are getting replaced by A.I. and robots -> doctors are replaced by several algorythms gainingy knowlegde from plugging into vast medical databases, self driving cabs, teachers replaced by A.I. - Technological advancements used in medical science expanding human lifespan -> ability to alter genes and simply modify sick ones

POLITICS

- Europe Union is fragmented -> Sperations very much based on North/ West and South/East connection - Technological innovation is the priority -> to maintain populations nutrition and energy usage while there are rescource shortages - self- sufficient communites are taking care for themselves - High import tarifs - Strict regulations on non renewable sources

CONSUMER

- Less consumption -> caused by low disposable income + resource shortages - Trends developed within a community -> tribalism and cultural ideals as inspiration - Upper class of population can be satisfied with new technological innovation -> usage of smart materials to enhance consumers life.

- For low-income communities making clothes has become the alternative -> resuing materials due to resource shortages

FASHION INDUSTRY

- Many fashion brand have disappeard for the market -> low-income communities make the clothes themselves (no need for fashion brands) - Opening a parallel market for small tailors within communities (tribal understanding) - New innovative brands specialized in fashion for the upper class -> providing them with newest developments of fibres and functions - Automation within the production becomes the norm -> designers + laboratory technician are still needed for developing new styles and materials.

Prodcution is taken over by machines or even done at home.

- Patterns can be downloaded and then printed with a 3D printer at home by high-income population

SCENARIO REPORT 2035 - BEAUTIFUL ERRORS OF LIFE - AMSTERDAM

Conclusion ‘‘Conscious Europe’’ The future of ‘‘Conscious Europe’ might be even a more successful one for BEOL than the present. As the world is slowing down and regulations for transparent business have been introduced we are living on a greener planet. Consumers are taking their time to understand brands and interact with them. Willing to include them into the process of designing and during their shopping experience will create even a greater audience for BEOL. While durablility and functionality is desired by the consumer we see more brands using smarter and long-during materials. Other Brands will realise the needs in using the technological advancements to be able to produce sustainable and desired prodcuts. We will have more competitors in the future.

So what does BEOL need to do to stand out? What we already do is, highlighting the errors what is already a distinctive approach within a world that promises perfection. But by being even more extraordinary in usage of materials BEOL could be an innovator and create a new level of clothing experience. Making use of 3D body scanners will even make shopping more pleasant and memorable. Also we could think of renting out clothes instead of only retailing them. By re-using we can make the consumer stay non-committal and vanish the idea of materialism. Concluding, I would say ‘‘ Conscious Europe’’ is a successful future scenario for BEOL. Staying true to its core values and without changing the main target group, BEOL is capable of being a valued brand in this future. By creating an even more etxreme brand experience we can step up and be fresher and more innovative than our competitors.

“Second Scenario” In a fast world where technology is replacing human tasks it might be very challenging for BEOL to keep existing. While the fashion industry has shrunk dramatically there is only a small market for fashion brands. A fragmented Europe with a lot of different communities and tribal ideals has its own fashion. Also our targetgroup might not exist in the form they did before. The population is still connected and aware of happenings around them but there is no sense of belonging to other communties. The question for BEOL is what to change without loosing its main beliefs to survive in that challenging future? By changing its tribe and targeting the high-income part of society who can afford the newest innovations within the fashion market, BEOL can stay true to its values and offer them a smart technological fashion experience. We definitely need to lower our production as there is simply less consumption. While this is basicly the only profitable fashion market there will be many competitors offering the desired experiences and products for a small market. Saving costs on loans due to the automation is one of the positive effects which at the same time is bad as the consumers dont have the money to spend on our clothes. To conclude, this fragmented europe is a difficult world for BEOL to survive in.

SCENARIO REPORT 2035 - BEAUTIFUL ERRORS OF LIFE - AMSTERDAM

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BOOKS

Sources

1) Dixon, Patrick (2016): The future of (almost) everything. Profile Books; edition: Main.

WEBSITES 2) (2017): „Energy from renewable sources - Statistics Explained“. Ec.europa.eu. retrieved on 28. 05. 2017 from http:// ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Energy_from_renewable_sources.

3) (2010): Climate of Opportunity. 1. GreenDCAgenda. https://doee.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/ddoe/publication/ attachments/ClimateOfOpportunity_web.pdf 4) Javelosa, June (2017): „Lab-Grown Meat Is Healthier. It’s Cheaper. It’s the Future.“. Futurism. retrieved on 28. 05.

2017 from https://futurism.com/were-5-years-away-from-lab-grown-meat-hitting-store-shelves.

5) (2017): „Collaborative Economy 2025 | Nesta“. Nesta.org.uk. retrieved on 28. 05. 2017 from http://www.nesta.org. uk/news/collaborative-economy-2025/demand-convenient-and-embedded.

6) McGovern, Conor (2017): „Artificial intelligence is the future of customer experience“. The Telegraph. retrieved on 28. 05. 2017 from http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/digital-leaders/horizons/ai-is-the-future-of-customer-experience.

7) Curry, Andrew (2016): The future of Housing & Homes Scenario 2030. 1. The Futures Company. https://england. shelter.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0020/1257041/2016_04_20_The_Future_of_Housing_and_Home.pdf 8) Nemko, Marty (2016): „The future of Relationships“. https://www.psychologytoday.com/. retrieved on 28. 05. 2017 from https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/how-do-life/201601/the-future-relationships.

9) (2017): „Euro Area Disposable Personal Income | 1999-2017 | Data | Chart | Calendar“. Tradingeconomics.com. retrieved on 28. 05. 2017 from https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/disposable-personal-income.

10) Parker, Ceri (2016): „8 predictions for the world in 2030“. World Economic Forum. retrieved on 28. 05. 2017 from https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/8-predictions-for-the-world-in-2030.

11) Bennie, Fiona; Gazibara, Ivana; Murray, Vicky (2010): Fashion Futures 2025. 1. forumforthefuture. https://www. forumforthefuture.org/sites/default/files/project/downloads/fashionfutures2025finalsml.pdf 12) Berger, Michael (2016): „Nanotechnology in textiles - the new black“. Nanowerk.com. retrieved on 28. 05. 2017 from http://www.nanowerk.com/spotlight/spotid=42713.php.

13)Berger, Ivan (2016): „3-D Body Scanners in Stores Can Help You Find Apparel in Your True Size - IEEE - The Institute“. Theinstitute.ieee.org. retrieved on 28. 05. 2017 from http://theinstitute.ieee.org/resources/standards/3d-bodyscanners-in-stores-can-help-you-find-apparel-in-your-true-size.

IMAGES 1) Increibles ciudades y diseños futuristas, 2007, from https://www.taringa.net/posts/ciencia-educacion/18801781/Increibles-ciudades-y-disenos-futuristas.html?dr= 2) Acronym SS17 advertising, 2017 from https://acrnm.com/images/IMG-17-C_SS17 3) Studio XO, CraneTV, no year, from http://www.crane.tv/studio-xo-the-future-is-fashionable 4) Teepr Nike Motion, 2016 from http://www.teepr.com/472087/angelpan/未來感nike球鞋/ SCENARIO REPORT 2035 - BEAUTIFUL ERRORS OF LIFE - AMSTERDAM

SELF EVALUAT 14

RESEARCH

All sources are credible as we discussed some of them in class. The other ones turned out to be credible as well by taking a closer look. Also there is a good mix between soruces with depth such as other scenario reports, books and short articles about a specific topic. I did my research online but also looked for offline sources. I covered all DESTEP areas with my research. But it was much easier for me to research on a societal, technological and environmental and I think that is too obvious in the outcome. I should work on my knowledge and interest on a political and economical level.

DECISION MAKING Starting to write the scenario report I was struggeling to create 2 relevant drivers. But I figured out it was not about the drivers itself but more about phrasing the question for it and having two extremes in the end that would create 4 different worlds. After having the 4 extremes I was able to create 4 different worlds. Also the 2 drivers come from different DESTEP areas and the cover more than 2 areas at the same time.

REALISATION My scenario makes sense and is a coherent story whereas I could improve the flow of reading.

DESTEP areas feels a bit seperated, it could be a more integrated stroy in the end. I do think my scenario is futuristic yet plausible as I add new ideas based on existing developments. Whereas I could be more creative in bringing in my own future ideas. Maybe a bit too conservative too keep it plausible. In the conclusions I take decision for my brand by referring back to the future scenario.

SCENARIO REPORT 2035 - BEAUTIFUL ERRORS OF LIFE - AMSTERDAM

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ATION PRESENTATION

My scenario is correctly written. But I did have problems writing it. It was very time consuming as I have a hard time writing and I think my writing skills could be improved. In terms of language but als grammar. The final layout is appropriate for my brand. It is a bit more conservative than my brand. That has to do with the amount of text that is used which needs to be readable in the end.

Refference list plus in text sourcing is present. The images are supporting the story and express a certain mood matching the story.

SELF EVALUATION During the whole process of creating the scenario report it was hard for me to research the Economical and Political destep areas as these arent my main interests. I was basicly lacking on knowledge what made it really hard to create future ideas for these DESTEP areas. I should read more articles on that topics to step up my general knowledge. Also I was a bit to conservative with my own ideas for the future based on new developments. I feel like it could have been a bit more futuristic. Also writing can be improved by reading more and just write more. Maybe I can even apply it in my process book instead of a lot of visualisation I could write and analyze more to get to write texts. Strong points during my process were a good research on a societal and technological level. Also I do think the design itself is matching my brand.

ORGANISATION I have been to all the lessons and discussed the work together with my classmates. Scenario is uploaded on dropbox.

SCENARIO REPORT 2035 - BEAUTIFUL ERRORS OF LIFE - AMSTERDAM

BEOL

beautiful errors of life

amsterdam 2017

Lukas Schwering AMFI B1EI