MAC 2010 Background paper

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9 Model American Congress MAC Congressional Research Service Report

MAC CRS 2010

Interests vary natIons tarry M a C 2 0 10 Preamble

It has been eight years since the idea came to action, following the September 11th attacks on the United States of America. The Founding fathers of the Model have found it necessary to build a bridge with the aim of forming a massive and credible foundation of understanding the Politics and Society of the United States.

Eight years of continuous, credible, fruitful, and dedicated work are the age of the Model so far, and here the ship continues to sail, led by the Academic supervisor of the Model, as well as the dedicated Egyptian Youth like you.

Through a better understanding to the world around us, and through seeking to benefit from what is valid for us, and avoid what’s not, and with hard work stimulated by persistence and determination to make a better future for our posterity and our Beloved Egypt, WE CAN and WE WILL make a better tomorrow for it, Egypt, for whom we may always be lovers‌ This year is a very special year on the global scale, many global challenges come to the board of a world that has been led for a couple of decades by the American Hegemon, all alone, and with a new President and Congress, the MAC Senators shall explore the opportunities of bringing the world problems to an end, and yes you can.

Lead by the power of Example!

MAC 2010 High board

President : Mai Mohamed Meneissy

President Pro-Tempore: Youssef Essam Qotb

Head of the Organizing Committee: Ahmed Kashwaa

Deputy-Head of the Organizing Committee: Mariam Abdullah

Index:

Cover……………………………………………………………..1 Preamble…………………………………………………………3 MAC 2010 High board………………………………………….4 Index……………………………………………………………...

Rules of Procedure of MAC 2010………………………………

Committee on Foreign Relations………………………………

Committee on Finance………………………………...

Committee on Homeland Security…………………………………..

Committee on the Judiciary………………………………………...

Committee on Near East and South Asian Affairs………….

Rules of Procedure Model American Congress 2010 United States Senate

Interests Vary, Nations tarry

Section I: Parliamentary Authority -These rules shall be the official rules of the Model American Congress, - MAC Rules of order Revised, may be used for purposes of definition, but in cases of conflict, these by-laws shall take precedence, - No one may amend these by-laws except the members of the committee.

Section II: Senate members and officers First, the duties of the chairman/lady of each committee shall be: - T o declare the opining and closing of each committee meeting, - To recognize all the speakers, - To decide all points of order, - To put questions to a vote and announce the results, - To preserve order and decorum and to clear the floor of any disorderly persons.

Second, the duties of the Vice-Chair shall be: - To chair the committee during the chairman/lady absence or when the latter yields the floor to, - To read all bills and amendments, - To assist in counting of the votes, - To make sure that there is a quorum present at all times during which business is being transacted.

Third, the duties of the Ranking Member shall be: - To advise the Chairman/lady in the decision of any parliamentary questions, - To Direct the Academic flow of the debate, - To act as source of all academic materials that needed by the senators during the congressional meetings.

- To make sure that the committee bills are issued according to all technical and legal specifications.

Fourth, the duties of the Party Consultant shall be: - To arrange each and every party factions and wings, - To work on the formulation of the party statement, - To assist the Ranking Member in providing the Academic materials, - To act as source of party and senators stances.

Fifth, the duties of the Senators shall be: - To Work on the discussed committee topics, as well issuing a bill on the discussed topics to be taken to the senate floor, - To assist the Chairman/lady in maintaining order and decorum.

Sixth, the duties of the Lobbyists shall be: - To provide the senators with the academic materials and any technical or legal support, - To work on the discussed committee topics,

- To lobby for or against the committee bills in the other committees and in the floor, - To assist the Chairman/lady in maintaining order and decorum.

NOTE: the Chairman/lady may vote when it is necessary to break a tie, to complete a 2/3 vote, to make a quorum, or in any case where his/her vote would change the results, at which time he may vote if he/she chooses.

Section III: Standing Committees - The committee Chairman/lady shall assign the senators prior to the opining of the Model American Congress Conference, - There shall be one Chairman/lady and 20 senators for each committee, - The Committee on the Rules shall consist of the Model American Congress President, President Pro-tempore and the Chairmen/ladies of the 5 Committees. Other senators may be arbitrarily admitted.

Section IV: Agenda and Order of Business - The Agenda of the Senate Floor and each of the standing committees shall be drawn up in advance of the opining of the respective sessions.

- The Vice-chair shall see that each member of the chamber has received a copy of the agenda.

- Bills no on the agenda may only be introduced by a motion to suspend the rules.

- Bills passed in the committee should be forwarded to the Committee on Rules, Where they will be placed on the agenda of the Senate Floor.

- In Committee, the sponsor of the bill may make any changes on his/her bill by arranging them with the Ranking Member before the markup session.

Section V: Rules of Order The following are some motions, which shall be used in Senate. If two motions are on the floor simultaneously, the higher numbered one shall take precedence..

ACCLAMATION A bill may be passed by acclamation only before debate has begun. It requires a simple majority vote. "I'd like to move to an acclamation voting procedure on the presented bill".

OBJECT TO CONSIDERATION (only on the floor)

This motion, if passed, has the effect of canceling the effect of the bill. It is used only if the body feels that the bill being discussed is frivolous, irrelevant, not within the body’s jurisdiction, or clearly unconstitutional. It must be done before debate on the bill has begun. It requires a 2/3 vote to pass “I object to consideration of this question, having…. " TO DIVIDE A MOTION If a delegate calls for a division of a motion, it means he/she wants the bill to be voted on separately from its amendments. 2/3 majority is required to divide a motion, it can be raise though in case we have an acclamation motion pre-discussing the bill.

"I call for the division of the committee" (And its asked for a vote by actual count to verify a voice vote for the bill without amendments) PREVIOUS QUESTION This ends debate prematurely and brings the assembly to an immediate vote on the main motion.

It requires a 2/3 vote to pass “I move the previous question, to…"

SUSPEND THE RULES This motion suspends the rules of the chamber involved for a definite purpose, for a specified time. It requires a 2/3 vote to pass. “I move we suspend the rules and consider the chairs authority" POINT OF ORDER If a breach of parliamentary procedure occurs, a senator may bring it to the attention of the chair.

The punishment of the offender shall be at the discretion of the chair, as well it can be used to raise a motion for a caucus, mark up session or holding a congressional hearings and in that cas4e it always begins with “I move that….”. "I'd like to raise a motion to move to a… "Or “I appeal the chair’s decision" or “I move we postpone this meeting until"….

POINT OF PERSONAL PRIVLEGE A delegate may rise to appoint of privilege if there is a question concerning the rights of a member or the entire assembly. It can call for the reading of pertinent Bill, the opening of a window … etc. "Point of personal privilege" TO RECESS/ADJOURN A senator may, at his/her discretion call for a recess/adjourn of any meeting. It requires a majority vote to pass.

“I move that we recess until….” or “I move that we adjourn” Note: All motions require a 2/3 majority to pass except the recess, adjourn & acclamation both requires a simple majority to pass.

Only the point of personal privilege can be raised while a senator has a floor.

SECTION VI: Voting - All voting on the main motion shall consist of a show of hands of the ayes and nays but this is done only if there is a marked uncertainty as to the result of the vote. No division shall be allowed if any new motion has been made since the vote has been taken.

- The majority vote as well as the 2/3 vote shall consist of the number of senators present and voting.

- All motions and points shall be out of order once the vote has begun.

Abstentions shall not be counted where its only allowed in case of the amendments and the bill voting.

- All motions require a 2/3 majority to pass except the recess, adjourn & acclamation both requires a simple majority to pass.

- In case of having a miss-vote a re-voting procedure is taken by the chair, by which a voice vote for the motion is taken as in the case of the divided motion.

- Abstentions aren't allowed in case of a motion vote

SECTION VII: Debate Flow The Congressional Committee meetings: <chairman/lady> the Committee will come to order. We are meeting today to consider our congressional agenda the "….", the "….", and the "…." <Opening statements by chairman and RM> <chairman/lady> "thanks to the gentleman or the gentle lady" pointing to the ranking member, a quorum(10) being present, the committee will now proceed the consideration of the declared agenda for that congressional meeting, and now the floor will be yield to the vice-chair to have the roll call, senators attending should reply as present <Chairman/lady> the honorable senator…of….. Is recognized for two minutes <chairman/lady>other members may submit opening statements comments for the record <chairman/lady>honorable senators wishing to speak should raise their placards high and keep them high…. <Chairman/lady> the honorable senator…of….. is recognized for two minutes <chairman/lady> "thanks to the gentleman or the gentle lady" and so on <Senator> point of order <chairman/lady> honorable….of……what's your point <senator>I'll move that we go to a hearing session for…minutes <chairman/lady> honorable senator that’s in order, the question is on agreeing to the motion offered by the gentleman. to…. Those in favor say "aye" <pause> those opposed say "no" <pause> (if only no or ayes are heard then the voting had a consensus result whether yes or no while in case of nays and ayes are heard then a raising hands motion takes place)

<chairman/lady> In the opinion of the chair, the ayes [nays] have it and the motion is [is not] agreed to The Mark Up Session: <chairman/lady> the Committee will come to order. We are meeting today to consider S.111 the"…..bill title…..", a bill to….. <Clarifying stmt by the ranking member> <chairman/lady>A quorum (10) being present, the committee will now proceed the consideration of S111 the "…..bill title….", I'll now call up the S111. The ranking member will report the bill. <RM begins to read the bill> <Chairman/lady> (interrupt reading) the bill was circulated in advance. Without objection, the first reading of the bill is dispensed with. <if objection is heard, a senator or the RM should raise "move to dispense with the reading> <chairman/lady> Are there any amendments to the present bill? <if any member called ayes> <chairman/lady> now the floor will be opened for 10 minutes for having amendments, the ranking member will record the amendments. <chairman/lady> the time for recording S111 amendments has elapsed, the honorable … of…….amendment calls for,………….. <After finishing reading the amendment if the member raised "reserve a point of order" at this time then he would be recognized for 1 minute> <chairman/lady> the gentleman/lady is recognized for 1minute in the support of the amendment <Member explains the amendment> <chairman/lady> the time of the gentleman/lady has expired, since there is no further discussion, the question is on agreeing to the amendment offered by the gentleman/lady. Those in favor say "aye"<pause>, those opposed say "no" <pause> (if only no or ayes are heard then the voting had a consensus result whether yes or no while in case of nays and ayes are heard then a raising hands motion takes place) <chairman/lady> In the opinion of the chair, the ayes [nays] have it and the amendment is [is not] agreed to.

And so on the amendments are discussed & voted to………… <chairman/lady> hearing no further amendments, the question now occurs on the adoption of the bill as amended. All those in favor say "aye"<pause> all those opposed say "no"<pause> In the opinion of the chair, the Ayes have it and adoption of the bill as amended is agreed to. (if only no or ayes are heard then the voting had a consensus result whether yes or no while in case of nays and ayes are heard then a voice recorded voting takes place) <Chairman/lady> I now move the bill as amended be forwarded favorably to the senate floor. All those in favor say "aye" <pause> all those opposed say "no" <pause> in the opinion of the chair, the Ayes have it and the motion is agreed to. <Possible request for a voice recorded vote> <Chairman> without objection, the motion is to reconsider is laid on the table, and staff is authorized to make any technical and conforming changes.

There being no further business, without objection, the committee stands adjourned.

SECTION VIII: The Floor - The committee on rules will set the floor agenda a day before the floor - The floor of MAC will involve the 100 senator as speakers, while the secretariats and the lobbyists are not recognized. However, the lobbyists conduct their task informally.

- The bills pass throughout the floor to the white house with a simple majority of 50+1 - All the committee rules & motions are in order in addition to putting the object to consideration.

The Filibuster: - In recent practice, a unanimous consent agreement has sometimes included the provision that would require a 60-vote (Three-fifths of the present and voting senators) majority threshold to be met for amendments or legislations to be considered agreed to, rather than the ordinary simple majority required. These amendments may be of a controversial nature with the potential of causing a Filibuster, a 60-vote required majority.  Honorable President/ President Pro-Tempore, I would like to move to a filibuster on the presented bill….

“In the opinion of the president, the filibuster is adopted on the presented bill...”

MAC Committee on Foreign Relations Congressional Research Service Report Prepared by:

Chairlady: Nada Fayez Vice-Chair: Menna Rabie Ranking Member: Nader Refaat Party Consultant: Yasmine Ibrahim

Model American Congress COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS Interests driveâ&#x20AC;Ś nations follow.

"Where the very safety of the country depends upon the resolution to be taken, no consideration of justice or injustice, humanity or cruelty, nor of glory or of shame, should be allowed to prevail. But putting all other considerations aside, the only question should be: What course will save the life and liberty of the country?"

Niccole Machiavelli, 1505 AC

This is dedicated to; The current and future generations of Egyptâ&#x20AC;Ś With all the sincerity and best wishes, Secretariats of the Committee on Foreign Relations

About the Committee on Foreign Relations:Committee on Foreign Relations is considered one of the most important committees in the US Senate. The committee was created in 1816 and since then it played a significant role in important events that contributed for the creation the American political history and the American foreign policy like the purchase of Alaska, the establishment of UN … etc.

The committee enjoys a broad extent of jurisdiction that covers vital issues like: foreign assistance and loans; diplomatic service; international law as relates to foreign policy; declaration of wars; maritime, environmental, and scientific affairs as relates to foreign policy; US foreign relations in general; international aspects of nuclear energy… and others.

The committee is also divided into seven vital subcommittees due to the importance and complexity of the work in the committee. These subcommittees are: the subcommittee on 1)Western Hemisphere, Peace Corps and Global Narcotics Affairs; 2)Near Eastern and South and Central Asian Affairs; 3)African Affairs; 4) East Asian and Pacific Affairs; 5)International Operations and Organizations, Democracy, Human Rights, and Global Women’s Issues; 6)European Affairs; 7)International Development and Foreign Assistance, Economic Affairs, and International Environmental Protection.

In Model American congress, committee on foreign relations is also considered as one of the most important and permanent committees in MAC since the launching of the model. Each and every year we discuss a lot of influential topics that is related to the US foreign policy, hence affecting the whole world.

Outline First topic: Sino-American relations…the interests’ dilemma      



Back ground on the Sino-American relations The controversy over Taiwan China and the nuclear proliferation in Asia Human Rights Violation in China China and Climate Change U.S.- Chinese trade disputes China’s influence in Africa Second topic: U.S.-African relations… the Dark Continent.

 Democratization in Africa: Case Study of Sudan: 1. The crisis in Darfur 2. South Sudan  Combating terrorism in the Horn of Africa  Maritime Security in Africa: 1. Piracy in the horn of Africa 2. Drug trafficking in Western Africa United Nations Convention on Law Of the Sea

First topic: Sino-American relations…the interests’ dilemma Back ground on the Sino-American relations:

In early 20th century, with the fall of the Chinese emperor on October 10, 1911, China became a republic and Gen. Yuan Shikai, was chosen as the republic's first president. Yet, after his death China was divided between Kuomintang (KMT or "Chinese Nationalist People's Party") and Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

At first, the KMT appeared to be the victorious party that the remnants of the CCP escaped in the mountains of eastern China then they walked a “Long March” to north western China as they were reorganized under Mao Zedong.

Although the two parties nominally united against the Japanese invasion to China in 1937, the conflict between them continued after the Japanese defeat in 1945. Then, on October 1, 1949, Mao Zedong proclaimed the founding of the People's Republic of China (P.R.C.) where the KMT fled to Taiwan, proclaiming Taipei to be China's "provisional capital”. Taiwan still calls itself the "Republic of China."1 Formal cut in the Sino- American relations 1 http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/18902.htm

As part of the cold war, it was natural that USA leading the western liberal camp would be hostile to the new communist China that the American Embassy followed the Nationalist government of KMT headed by Chiang Kai-shek, but the U.S. consular officials remained in mainland China. In response, the new P.R.C. Government was hostile to this official American presence, and all U.S. personnel were withdrawn from the mainland in early 1950. The deteriorating US-Chinese relations reached the top with Korean War where China stood against USA clearly and then the relations were formally cut.

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From then, there were efforts exerted by the two parties to improve the relations that from 1954 t0 1970 they held 136 meetings. Then, On July 15, 1971, President Nixon announced that Henry Kissinger (Assistant for National Security Affairs) had made a secret trip to Beijing to initiate direct contact with the Chinese leadership and that he, the President, had been invited to visit China. In February 1972, Nixon visited China.

At the conclusion of his visit, U.S.A. and china issued the "Shanghai Communiqué" in which both countries pledged to wok forward to normalize their relations and also USA declared its “One China” policy that there is only one China and Taiwan is part of China. However, there were still no formal diplomatic relations between U.S.A. and China but they established the United States Liaison Office (USLO) in Beijing and a counterpart Chinese office in Washington, DC.2 Normalization in the Sino-American relations: Finally, the United States and China announced on December 15, 1978, that the two governments would establish diplomatic relations on January 1, 1979 by the Joint communiqué and the United States transferred diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing. Yet, the United States established the Taiwan Relations Act to organize its relations with Taiwan.

From 1979 to 1989, the two parties established many bilateral agreements in different fields especially in the scientific, technological, and cultural interchange and trade fields, also the U.S. dialogue with China broadened to cover a wide range of issues mainly the global and regional strategic problems, political issues, military questions (including arms control), UN and other multilateral organization affairs, and international narcotics matters.

Although these relations was threatened by the U.S. arms exports to Taiwan and their unofficial relations, the relations were calmed again by the U.S.-China joint communiqué of August 17, 1982 in which the United States stated its intention to reduce gradually the level of arms sales to 2 Ibid.

Taiwan. Then, President Reagan visited China in 1984 and the VicePresident Bush visited China in October 1985, also President Bush's visit to Beijing in February 1989.3 Yet, the Sino-American relations was exposed to a series of accidents led to deteriorated relations as on June 3-4, 1989 a crackdown happened in the US-Chinese relations due to suppression of the Chinese authorities to a demonstration which USA considered as violation of human rights, the Chinese military conducted military operations close to Taiwan and the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in May 1999. However, the Sino-American relations began to improve gradually especially with the President George W. Bush visit to china in February 2002 and it was followed by a growing number of cultural exchange activities undertaken at all levels.

4

Nowadays, China is very important to the USA as President Barack Obama said that the relations between these two countries will shape the 21st century. The two parties nowadays discuss different issues: economic recovery, climate change, cleanenergy technology, nuclear nonproliferation, counterterrorism and humanitarian disasters like the one in Darfur, Sudan.

“I have no illusions that the United States and China will agree on every issue, nor choose to see the world in the same way,” Mr. Obama said. “But that only makes dialogue more important.”5

The controversy over "Taiwan":6 3 http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ho/pubs/fs/90835.htm#kennedy 4 http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/18902.htm 5 http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/28/world/28strategy.html?_r=1

With the victory of Mao Zedong and his Communist Party military forces on mainland China in 1949, the remnants of the government of America’s former World War II ally, the Republic of China (ROC) led by Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek, fled to the island of Taiwan.

For the next thirty years, both regimes claimed legitimacy as the sole legal government of the Chinese people. In Beijing on October 1, 1949, a victorious Mao proclaimed the creation of the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

Meanwhile, Chiang Kai-shek established a temporary capital for his government in Taipei, Taiwan, declaring the ROC still to be the legitimate Chinese government-inexile and vowing that one day he would “retake the mainland” and drive out communist forces.

With North Korea’s surprise invasion of South Korea on June 25, 1950. Within a week, President Truman ordered U.S. air, naval, and ground forces to go to South Korea’s aid and ordered the U.S. 7th fleet to prevent any attack on Taiwan, saying that “determination of the future status of Formosa [the island’s designation as a Japanese colony] must await the restoration of security in the Pacific ...” U.S. support for the ROC was solidified when Chinese Communist forces entered the Korean War in support of North Korea in October-November 1950. As a result, in April 1951, the United States resumed direct military assistance to the ROC government on Taiwan, and in 1954 the United States and Chiang’s government signed the U.S.-ROC Mutual Defense Treaty, making the two governments allies once again.

This remained the situation for three decades: Taiwan and China remained officially at war; the United States continued to support the ROC claim as the legitimate government of all China, refused to recognize the legitimacy of the PRC, and maintained a defense alliance with the ROC government on Taiwan; and for much of this time, the ROC government continued to represent China in the United Nations and other international organizations.

But after President Nixon’s diplomatic opening to Beijing in 1971-72, U.S. officials began to view Beijing more as a strategic asset against the Soviet Union than as an adversary to be confronted in the Taiwan Strait. Yet, Official U.S. recognition of PRC legitimacy did not come until 1979.

6 Kerry Dunbaugh. Taiwan’s Political status: Historical Background and Ongoing Implications, CRS report for congress.

In the Joint Communiqué on Establishing Diplomatic Relations that announced the change, the United States acknowledged that both the PRC and ROC governments claimed there was only one China and that Taiwan was a province of it and that the problem of Taiwan will be solved peacefully by the Chinese themselves. United States terminated its military obligations toward Taiwan under the 1954 U.S.-ROC Mutual Defense Treaty.

The dissolution of U.S. diplomatic relations with Taiwan placed Taiwan, the congress of 1979 passed Taiwan Relations Act (TRA—P.L. 96-8)—which remains the domestic legal authority for conducting unofficial U.S. relations with Taiwan today. It states that: Taiwan is to be treated in a manner consistent with the way that “foreign countries, nations, states, governments, or similar entities” are treated, irrespective of other provisions in U.S. law concerning the requirements of maintaining diplomatic relations. With the maintenance of other treaties before December 31 1978, the rights in tangible and intangible properties owned the governing authority of Taiwan, and the ability of Taiwan to sue or to be sued in front of US courts.

The establishment of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) as a non-profit, tax-exempt corporation separate from the U.S. government to handle those issues with Taiwan that would have been conducted by U.S. government authorities such as the State Department if diplomatic relations existed. The AIT is funded through an annual U.S. government appropriation and has offices in Taiwan and USA. The Taiwan office in Washington, DC, has been known as the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative’s Office (TECRO) since 1994. In addition, TECRO oversees twelve other offices throughout the United States, known as Taiwan Economic and Cultural Offices (TECO). AIT and TECRO officials operate on behalf of their governments in dealing with each other’s governments.

Section 3 provides for the sale of U.S. defense articles and services to Taiwan, but it is nonspecific about the nature of these articles. It merely calls for “such defense articles and services ... as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability.” Section 3 gives Congress a role in determining what needs Taiwan may have.

Section 4(d) of the Taiwan Relations Act make the following specific pronouncement on this point: “Nothing in this Act may be construed as a basis for supporting the exclusion or expulsion of Taiwan from continued membership in any international financial institution or any other international organization.”

China and the nuclear proliferation in Asia:

China and Pakistan: When talking about the Chinese-Pakistani relations, we are talking about a very close and mutually beneficial relationship that dates back to the establishment of diplomatic ties between the two countries since the beginning of the 1950s.

Traditionally, Pakistan was one of the first countries to recognize the People's Republic of China in 1950 and continued to be a strong ally even in Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s period of international isolation in the 1960s and early 1970s.

China has long provided Pakistan with major military, technical, and economic assistance, including the transfer of sensitive nuclear technology and equipment.

This special and close relationship can be explained in terms of balance of power as China and Pakistan have traditionally depended on each other as a strategic ally against India. Pakistan depends on China to promote Pakistani security from India. For China, its support for Pakistan is part of a policy of encirclement of India in order to weaken New Delhi's ability to challenge Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s influence in the region.7 7 http://www.cfr.org/publication/10070/

As a result, China has assisted Pakistan in different defense aspects mainly in the nuclear and missiles arenas: Nuclear Program: China is Pakistan’s principle supplier with nuclear technology, materials and assistance. Between late 1994 and mid-1995, China –through a Chinese entity called was China Nuclear Energy Industry Corporation, a subsidiary of the China National Nuclear Corporation- sold unsafeguarded ring magnets to Pakistan for use in its uranium enrichment program in a clear violation of the NPT and in contradiction of U.S. laws. Afterwards, on September 14, 1996, a CIA report said that the same firm which sold the ring magnets sold a “special industrial furnace” to mold uranium or plutonium and also sold “high-tech diagnostic equipment” to unsafeguarded nuclear facilities in Pakistan mainly for a nuclear reactor to be completed by 1998 at Khushab in Pakistan. In 2000, USA suspected china of supplying Pakistan with equipments for a heavy water production plant which has generated weapons-grade plutonium. On May 5, 2004, China signed a contract to build a second nuclear power reactor (Chashma-2) in Pakistan.

It is worthy to note that USA suspected that China could be involved in or having ties with Abdul Qadeer Khan (A.Q. Khan) - who is the father of the Pakistani nuclear program as he is the former head of Pakistan’s nuclear weapon program –network of nuclear trade, selling nuclear bombs and uranium enrichment technology to other countries mainly Iran, Libya and North Korea.

Missile: from the beginning of 1990s, USA faced the issue of the missile transfers from some PRC entities to Pakistan including the M-11 short range ballistic missiles that is able to deliver a 500 kg warhead to 300 km (186 mi). Also, PRC technology transfers helped Pakistan to build domestic missile programs including development of medium-range ballistic missiles. This led to USA imposing sanction on PRC entities several times since 1991.8 China and Iran: China was an important factor in the development of the Iranian nuclear program since mid 1980s, at that time and by a secret nuclear cooperation agreement, China began training Iranian nuclear technicians on its land, assisted in the construction of Iran's primary research facility in Isfahan, and also agreed to supply Iran with subcritical or zero yield nuclear reactors--all under IAEA safeguards.

Yet, USA suspected Iran of using the nuclear technology in nuclear weapon program, USA urged China in mid 1990s to stop its nuclear technology transfers to Iran. However, there were SinoIranian nuclear deals as Chinese technicians helped in uranium enrichment at the Karaj nuclear research facility. There was other deal of selling Iran a facility of uranium conversion with building a uranium conversion plant near Isfahan, but this deal was cancelled later.9 8 Shirley Kan. China and Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction and Missiles: Policy Issues. CRS report for Congress. Pp 3-9.

9 Ibid, pp 3-12.

However, in October 1997 with the US-China summit, china promised not to begin any new nuclear deals with Iran after building a small research reactor and a factory to encase fuel rods.

Also the summit resulted in Clinton’s promise to implement the 1985 U.S.-PRC nuclear cooperation agreement (to sell nuclear power reactors to China).

Afterwards, USA discovered possible Sino-Iranian nuclear transactions despite the Chinese promise in 1997. As in late 1998, Clinton administration discovered nuclear deal between Iranian officials at the Isfahan Nuclear Research Center and mid-level officials in Beijing concerning the purchase of hundreds of tons of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride (AHF) which is an important a chemical in uranium enrichment. Under USA pressure, Chinese officials agreed to stop the proposed sale.

Yet, in 1999 USA intelligence reported that a Chinese entity had revived nuclear cooperation with Iran regarding the construction of a plant to produce graphite that US officials were worried of a possible new Sino- Iranian nuclear cooperation. As under Bush administration this cooperation continued like PRC supplying Iran with materials used in uranium enrichment and Chinese experts helping in Iranian uranium mines. That, in 2003 the Defense Intelligence Agency reported that PRC entities are involved in nuclear cooperation deals with Pakistan and Iran, but –in some cases- without the PRC government’s knowledge. 10 In May 2006, diplomatic sources revealed a Sino-Iranian nuclear cooperation as China supplied Iran with uranium hexafluoride gas (UF6) helping Iran’s uranium enrichment program.

Five main considerations shape China’s thinking on the Iranian nuclear issue: respecting Iran’s right to a civilian nuclear program, perpetuating the nuclear nonproliferation regime, maintaining bilateral energy and economic ties with Iran, protecting relations with the United States, and promoting China’s international image.

Beijing might have interests in raising its leverage vis-à-vis Washington, and some say those interests include checking U.S. influence and support for Tibet and Taiwan. Meanwhile, China has a competing priority of economic ties with Iran to fuel economic growth partly with global investments, and China opposes sanctions that would target energy deals. There is a concern that 10 Ibid.

China’s economic interests and influence in Iran, including multi-billion-dollar oil and gas deals, have undermined rising U.S. and European pressure on and isolation of Iran.

On one hand, China has been increasingly supportive of the nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction; eager to be viewed as a “responsible stakeholder” within the international community. At the same time, however, China’s economic boom has resulted in an energy thirst that is now affecting Beijing’s foreign policy.

In 2008, Iran was the third largest foreign supplier of crude oil to China (after Saudi Arabia and Angola). Iran provided 12% of the PRC imported crude oil. At the same time, PRC state-owned companies like Sinopec and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) have invested significantly in Iran’s oil and gas sector.11 China and North Korea:12 China is North Korea's most important ally, biggest trading partner, and main source of food, arms, and fuel.

China has helped sustain Kim Jong-Il's regime and opposed harsh international economic sanctions in the hope of avoiding regime collapse and an uncontrolled influx of refugees across its 800-mile border with North Korea. Mao Zedong declared that China and North Korea were "as close as lips and teeth". Hundreds of thousands of Chinese soldiers died fighting for North Korea in the Korean War. China has supported North Korea ever since Chinese fighters flooded onto the Korean peninsula to fight for their comrades in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) in 1950. Since the Korean War divided the peninsula between the North and South, China has lent political and economic backing to North Korea's leaders: Kim IL Sung and his son and successor, Kim JongIl. Pyongyang is economically dependent on China, which provides most of its food and energy supplies. North Korea's allegiance is important to Beijing as a bulwark against U.S. military dominance of the region as well as against the rise of Japan's military. China also gains economically from its association with North Korea; growing numbers of Chinese firms are investing in North Korea and gaining concessions like preferable trading terms and port operations.

11 http://www.twq.com/06spring/docs/06spring_shen.pdf 12 http://www.cfr.org/publication/11097/chinanorth_korea_relationship.html

When Pyongyang tested a nuclear weapon in October 2006 and China agreed to UN Security Council Resolution 1718, which imposed sanctions on Pyongyang. China also agreed to stricter sanctions after Pyongyang's second nuclear test in May 2009.

For the Chinese, stability in Asia and along their borders and the avoidance of war are the top priorities. Thus, the North Koreans are a huge problem for them, because Pyongyang could trigger a war on its own and this may generate the problem of hundreds of thousands of North Korean refugees flooding into China is a huge worry for Beijing. The Chinese are most concerned about the collapse of North Korea leading to chaos on the border. If North Korea does provoke a war with the United States, China and South Korea would bear the brunt of any military confrontation on the Korean peninsula. Yet both those countries have been hesitant about pushing Pyongyang too hard, for fear of making Kim's regime collapse. The flow of refugees into China is already a problem: China has promised Pyongyang that it will repatriate North Koreans escaping across the border, but invites condemnation from human rights groups when sending them back to the DPRK. Experts say China has also been ambiguous on the question of its commitment to intervene for the defense of North Korea in case of military conflict. The 1961 Sino-North Korean Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, says China is obliged to defend North Korea against unprovoked aggression.

But now, China fears North Korea's nuclear weapons could prompt or justify Japanese remilitarization, further defense spending in the South or increase US military support for Seoul â&#x20AC;&#x201C; shifting the regional balance of power to its disadvantage. Any military skirmish could have a devastating impact on Sino-South Korean relations. Besides, China fears of refugees across its 800-mile border with North Korea. Thus, China fears from the disturbance of the balance of power in Asia.

Human Rights Violation in China 13

Since 1989 the human rights issue of China has come to the forefront. Multiple sources, including the U.S. State Department's annual People's Republic of China human rights reports, as well as studies from other groups such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, have documented the PRC's abuses of human rights in violation of internationally recognized norms.

Controversial human rights issues in China include policies such as capital punishment, the onechild policy, the policy of Han Chinese cultural integration towards Tibet, and lack of protections regarding freedom of press and religion.

Prisoners rights violations in china Torture of detainees is endemic in Chinese detention centers and prisons. Although China became party to the UN Convention against Torture in 1988, the government has not taken 1312 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_in_the_People's_Republic_of_China

effective measures to diminish the risk of prisoners being tortured or ill-treated. Despite strong evidence of torture in several cases of death in custody, state prosecutors have refused to release autopsy results to families or to initiate investigations. In many detention centers, beatings, inadequate food and poor hygiene appear to be a routine part of the process of eliciting confessions and compliance from detainees. Such treatment is applied to ordinary prisoners as well as political detainees.

According to prisoner reports, methods commonly used by guards include: beatings using electric batons; rubber truncheons on hands and feet; long periods in handcuffs and/or leg irons, often tightened so as to cause pain; restriction of food to starvation levels; and long periods in solitary confinement. Furthermore, corrupt authorities at detention centers, prisons and labor camps have extorted large sums of money from families of detainees for the state's provision of "daily supplies" and "medical expenses."

Despite continuing efforts by the UN Special Reporters on Torture, the International Committee of the Red Cross and other humanitarian organizations, PRC officials have not agreed to allow open and unannounced visits to prisoners. PRC authorities acknowledge that there are some 1.2 million prisoners and detainees in China.

China "One Child" policy: China's one child per couple fertility policy implemented in 1980,is now a quarter of a century old launched as an emergency measure to slow population growth at the start of the chinese economic reforms this policy is the largest & the most extreme social experiment in population growth control via government intervention in human reproduction in world history.

Ever since its inception the one child policy has been highly controversial as there were proponents and opponents Proponents say:  Without such an extreme measure continued population growth would have doomed china's hope for quickly raising per capita income  Uncontrolled population growth will result in further depletion of natural resources &bring irreparable harm to the environment such thinking still garners wide currency today and is used for continuing the policy Opponents say:  Points out that significant fertility decline was already achieved by the late 1970 under a less extreme policy as the fertility levels dropped from 5.8 children per woman in 1970 to 1979 to 2.7 in the absence of the policy  They warn of the dire consequences of such unprecedented policy ,including women rights violation the forceful alteration of china's traditional family structure ,and imbalanced sex ratio When the controversial policy was being formulated its architects anticipated that in 30 years

when the current pressing population problem becomes less severe a different population policy can be adopted.

Soon after the initial implementation , the one child policy and the accompanying mass campaign of sterilization and abortion caused an aproar among the population &ignited strong resistance especially in china rural areas as the resistance of such a policy caused policy makers to reevaluate their decision to impose the one child policy nation wide,1984&1986 major policy readjustments retreated from "one size fits all" approach & diversified the policy for ex: many rural residents are now spared from the one child policy Also, most provinces now allow couples in which both spouses are only children to have two children. More recently, several provinces have allowed couples in which one spouse is an only child to have two children. By the 1990s population control had already become a multipolicy regime. Further modifications at local levels continued to produce numerous categories of exceptions, such that the policy’s complexity has come to resemble that of the U.S. tax code. A few exceptions exist for urban residents, mostly for couples whose first child is physically handicapped couples in a remarriage who do not each have a child from the previous marriage, or members of ethnic minorities.

Negative sides of such a policy  Imbalanced sex ratio: 1982=>108.5boys to 100girls , 2000=>119.2boys to100girls  Aging process: As a result of the 1970s fertility decline and 25 years of the one-child policy, urban Chinese couples will experience a far more serious aging scenario than rural Chinese (see Fig. 2). Today, 10 percent of the urban population is already aged 65 and over. In slightly more than a decade, this will rise to 15 percent a level of aging comparable to that in the more developed world now.

In 20 years, by 2025, the aging level among urban Chinese will reach 20 percent, a level found today only in Japan and Italy. Assuming fertility rates stay at the current level among urban Chinese, about 1.3 children per couple, 35 percent of the urban population will be aged 65 and older by 2050. While small in proportion to China’s total population, urban elderly still account for a large number of people. They were 20.6 million in the year 2000 and will increase to 34.1 million by 2015, 45.6 million by 2025, and 55.9 million by 2050. Alarmingly, this aging trend will continue well into the next century.

Human rights in Tibet: The contemporary dispute over the political status of Tibet dates back to the thirteenth century as there are historical arguments for both sides to justify their stances. On one hand, China claims that Tibet has been an inalienable part of China since the thirteenth century under the Yuan dynasty. On the other hand, Tibetans believe that the Chinese Empire at that time included Tibet as a protectorate, wherein Tibetans offered spiritual guidance to emperors in return for political protection.

Yet, in 1913, Tibet declared independence and expelled all Chinese officials and residents from it by the Tibetan government. Tibet thenceforth functioned as a de facto independent nation until the Chinese army invaded its eastern borders in 1950.14 But even during this period (1913-1950), China did not recognize Tibet as fully independent.

After founding the Peopleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Republic of China in 1949, the new communist government in China sought reunification with Tibet and decided to invade it in 1950. A year later, in 1951, the Dalai Lamaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s representatives signed a seventeen-point agreement with Beijing by which he gave China sovereignty over Tibet for the first time in return for the protection of his status that the central authorities will not attack the existing political system in Tibet or the established status, functions and powers of the Dalai Lama. Yet, Tibetans do not believe in the legitimacy of this agreement as they believe that Tibet was coerced into signing this document and not by its general will.

The most important thing is the way China deals with Tibetan rebellers as sometimes it used a soft approach but other times it may use brutality in a clear violation of human rights in Tibet.

Till 1970s, thousands of Tibetans were allegedly executed, imprisoned, or starved to death in prison camps. After Mao's death, Tibetans were encouraged to revitalize their culture and religion. Infrastructure was developed to help Tibet grow. But pro-independence protests in Tibet that started in 1987 led to the declaration of martial law in the region in 1989 till 1990 and after that it continued in a harsh policy in a clear violation of religious and cultural rights of Tibetans.15 Religious rights in China: Although the Chinese constitution states the freedom of religious belief and ban any kind of discrimination based on religion but every now and then attacks on the certain religious groups takes place and justified by the Chinese authorities as an internal issue and for the national interest. From these groups we can find the Uighur Muslims and Christians.

Uighur Muslims: According to China's latest census, which was conducted in 2000, there are over 20 million Muslims in China. A special concern is given to Muslims from the Uighur ethnic group who are a Turkic people living primarily in the autonomous region of Xinjiang province in northwest China. The problem is that the Chinese officials in Xinjiang province apply tight control on Muslimâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s religious activities that is not applied on Muslims in the rest of the country who enjoy greater religious freedom. Most Uighurs are frustrated with the Chinese government because they face discrimination for having a different religion, language, and culture than the typically wealthier Han Chinese.

Xinjiang is an area of special concern because of the region's ethnic and religious ties to neighboring states because of the Uighurs' large population of ethno-linguistic and religious brethren in Central Asia, and all the way up to Turkey that China became worried about foreign 14 http://www.cfr.org/publications/15965 15 Ibid

influences especially from central Asia. that is beside the fact that Chinese authorities are convinced that the region is the base of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) which is a militant Islamic separatist group that China has accused since 1990 of engaging in more than two hundred terrorist attacks.16 Christians' rights: Although the significant growth of Christians in China especially since the 1980s, many Christians choose not to register with the state as they do not accept the official doctrine of the state as they consider it as too liberal especially by the residents in the country side.

From the obvious attack on the Christians religious rights in China is that the state forbids the Catholics from pledging allegiance to any foreign figure, including the Pope and the Vatican's right to appoint bishops in Chinese churches. All this led to cutting the relations between China and Vatican since 1951.

The Chinese state also limits the number of people who can join each church and this led to the creation of a sizeable underground Christian community called "house churches" as a private religious forums and the number of their followers is approximately between 50 and 70 million.

Chinese officials harassed house churches in at least sixty cases last year, resulting in 788 arrests and 693 detentions. But experts say the CCP is growing more tolerant of these covert religious forums. 17

Climate Change: Climate change is one of the most series issues taking place in our recent times. It threatens to change the features of the world we know and live in today and as a result the issue has been tackled by major countries such as U.S.A and china. Especially as the United States and China are the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s top two greenhouse gas emitters, together accounting for more than 40% of annual emissions, any solution requires both countries to transition to low-carbon economies. Still, the issue of Climate change represented an opportunity through which U.SChinese relation has stepped into a new level. In this connection, U.S.-China relations have evolved and grown enormously since the Nixon visit to Beijing in 1972.18 Both countries use different policies and regulations to address climate change issue. In the United States, attention to climate change has exploded in the past five years.

Many state and local governments, as well as U.S. companies, have taken significant action to address this issue. President Obama identifies energy policy and climate change as top priorities. Significant action by the federal government on climate change is likely in the years 16 http://www.cfr.org/publication/16272 17 Ibid 18 http://www.brookings.edu/reports/2009/01_climate_change_lieberthal_sandalow.aspx

ahead. In China, energy efficiency has received serious attention, with significant national goals reflected in the current Five-Year Plan as well as various laws and regulations. Growth in renewable energy is also an important objective of national leaders. These and other policies, taken mainly to promote economic growth, energy security and clean air in China’s cities, have significant benefits when it comes to cutting greenhouse gas emissions.19 However, due to mutual distrust over long-term intentions has grown and can over time make mutual antagonism a self-fulfilling prophecy. Lately China and America had a fierce battle at the Copenhagen Climate Conference; both the world’s largest greenhouse gases discharged countries are skeptical to each other’s promise. The US chief negotiator Todd-Stern required China to keep promise, reduce carbon emissions, and actively to promote all countries to reach an international climate change agreement.20 At the same time, China criticized America for failing to honor its commitment that provide financial support to developing countries and reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases of 17 years ago. The Chinese representatives suggested that America should do now is to make a profound reflection on climate change issues.21Also, China, under pressure to take a more aggressive stand on global warming, has refused to accept mandatory limits on its carbon emissions, saying that as a developing country it should be allowed to catch up with economies in the West.22 In attempt to justify the One Child policy at the 31st of August 2007 at “The Vienna Climate Change Talks 2007” China claims its one-child policy had helped the fight against global warming by avoiding 300 million births. Avoiding 300 million births "means we averted 1.3 billion tons of carbon dioxide in 2005" based on average world per capital emissions of 4.2 tons, said Su Wei, the Foreign Ministry official heading the delegation.23 Still, the cooperation between U.S and China in this issue is threatens as it's a subject to other issues which explains the failure of the Copenhagen climate conference. issues such as The Chinese government reaction to Google’s claims – supported by the US administration – that cyber attacks against it had originated in China and its statement that it would no longer cooperate with government censorship of the Internet faced by The US has been increasingly critical of China’s unwillingness to agree to sanctions against Iran and finally the Chinese government is accusing the US administration of interference in its internal affairs by insisting on the meeting this week between Barack Obama and the Dalai Lama in Washington. Also, another major and most critical factor is The Chinese reaction to the Taiwan arms deal was entirely predictable, the only novelty being the threatened sanctions. All these factors are 19ibid 20 http://www.myps.org/hot/intense-battle-china-anamericaat-copenhagen-climate-conference.html 21 ibid.

22 http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/climate-change-may-wash-away-chinasdream/2007/08/31/1188067368191.html 23 ibid.

threatening the co-operation between the two countries in regard of Combating Climate change issue.24Thus; the two countries must find a way to work on this topic for the sack of their survival as well as the survival of the whole world.

US- Chinese trade disputes: As China continues its rise as a great power, the Congress has always been focusing on one of the biggest obstacles facing the US for maintaining smooth relations with China which is the trade. Since its accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), China has emerged as a major force in global production and trade. Holding approximately $ 800 billion of the US debts in the recent financial crisis, Concerns have increased more and more for the bilateral trade disputes that have taken place a very long time ago, and yet, the US is still searching for the most proper trade strategy and tactics for re-shaping such an endless dispute.

For a decision maker who wants to conduct an efficient bilateral trade policy with China, many sources and aspects has to be addressed. A key issue of the Conflict is Currency Valuation; the U.S. concern about China’s exchange rate policies has been building for several years. The US believes that China under valuates its currency so as in increase its exports. It calls it” the artificial currency” as named by many US economists. Another major concern is Unfair Trade Subsidies; as there are U.S. allegations that China unfairly subsidizes some of its exports. In December 2008, The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) in the WTO filed a case against China charging it for unfairly subsidizing its exports overseas. A third rising concern is the Intellectual Property rights. According to the US, China’s fails to live up to many of its World Trade Organization (WTO) commitments to protect intellectual property rights (IPR). In 2007/08, the US has filed many cases in the WTO accusing China for causing severe loss to its economy because of its IPR piracy.25

24 2513- “Kerry Dumbaugh, China-US Relations: Current Issues and Implications for US policy, CFR CRS Report for Congress, July 29-09”

Recently in 2009, US Chinese tensions have escalated because of the US decision to increase tariffs on Chinese tires for protecting the US industries. China reacted by filing this to the WTO condemning the US sudden act.26 A controversial debate has always taken part in the United States searching for the most efficient way to deal with the Chinese invasion to the US markets. The US has filed China in the WTO massively, but no serious actions as, described by US economists, has taken place. So as a Foreign Relations Committee, the US keeps on calling the international community and the WTO to pressure China to comply with the WTO rules and regulations, otherwise actions shall be taken towards stopping China.

So “How can the US best deal with China regarding the endless trade disputes?” This question has always been debatable in the United States, yet it has got harder after the recent financial crisis as China holds approximately 25% of the US debt. So how can the US pressure China to comply with the WTO rules given that it is pressured by it??!!

China’s influence in Africa:27 In the past several years, China’s aid to Africa has grown dramatically. During the 1970s and 1980s, China provided assistance in the form of infrastructure projects, public works, technical and public health assistance, and scholarships to study in China. Its motivations were largely diplomatic: to forge friendships among “non-aligned” nations and to compete with Taiwan (the Republic of China) for recognition. Only four of 48 sub-Saharan African countries (Burkina Faso, Sao Tome, Gambia, and Swaziland) still maintain official relations with Taiwan.

In 2007, the China Development Bank reportedly set up a $5 billion China-Africa Development Fund to finance infrastructure, industrial, and agricultural projects. These aid activities included financing (concessional loans), grants, debt cancellations, and economic investments. Estimates of PRC direct investment in Africa range from under $500 million to roughly $1 billion annually, according to some estimates, in 2005, Chinese FDI flows to Africa totaled $392 million or 3% of total PRC outward investment.

2614- “ David Pierson, Tensions mount over tire tariffs Trade conflict comes as U.S., China prepare for Economic summit, Tribune Newspaper, Orlando Sentinel (Florida), Wednesday, September 16 2009”

27 Thomas Lum, Hannah Fischer, Julissa Gomez-Granger, Anne Leland. China’s Foreign Aid Activities in Africa, lain America, and South East Asia. CRS report for Congress.

China has exerted growing influence as a trading partner. As part of its integrated approach, China’s diplomatic outreach to the region is accompanied by aid, investment, and trade. China is Africa’s third largest trading partner after the European Union and the United States. PRC-Africa trade reportedly was worth $106.6 billion in 2008 compared to U.S.-Africa trade of $142 billion.

China’s aid to Africa is driven largely by its objective of securing access to oil and minerals for its growing economy. African oil reportedly accounts for 80% of China’s trade in the region and about one-third of its oil imports. Nearly 70% of PRC infrastructure financing on the continent reportedly is concentrated in Angola, Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Sudan, all of which have oil fields.

Angola, Congo, and Sudan have major oil fields and pay for much of their assistance or loans from China with oil.

Second topic: U.S. –African relations…the dark continent.

Africa is a very important to the United States which has great strategic interests in this part of the world especially due to the availability of huge amount of natural resources mainly the African oil. Other interests include controlling illegal conducts that threaten the US national interest like combating terrorism in Africa, combating piracy and drug trade to secure the African waters… and many others. Yet, is democracy promotion in Africa is the solution?

I- Democratization in Africa: Democratization in Africa is one the major concerns not only for the US and Africa, but for the entire world. For many years, voices have been rising and rising calling for a change in the political, economical, social, and institutional aspects in Africa.

As described by former president Bush” the situation in Africa is still miserable, yet developing”.

For many years, Africa has been suffering from both military and civilian governments that had failed to alleviate poverty, unemployment, and oppression and had not provided their citizens with such basic services as health, housing, and education. Administrative inefficiency, political corruption, economic mismanagement, and social decay had further undermined the authority of autocratic leaders and national institutions. Opposition parties often lack access to resources and security, electoral commissions are not fully independent, and people who are surveyed indicate

dissatisfaction with their government’s efforts to decentralize and to create efficient tax systems.28 A UN report, issued in 2006, found that the delivery of public services in most states still remains poor – as seen in inadequate responses to the AIDS pandemic. The report also exposes some of the problems in creating a system of checks and balances among the presidency, the legislature and the courts, and stated that many African countries also have weak parliaments, which are not able to practice their constitutional responsibilities of managing budgets and formulating efficient policies.29 An extremely obvious example for Africa’s Dictatorship for the US is Zimbabwe. According to the US and European countries, Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe has stole his country’s last three elections, including the most recent presidential election on March 29 2008. Mugabe destroyed property rights, ignored the rule of law, created financial instability, and chased away foreign investment. He has treated the engines of the Zimbabwean economy as his own personal wealth creators, with disastrous consequences.30 On the other side and as argued by the Former Mozambican President Joaquin Chissano, the key role fiction that Zimbabwe’s economic collapse was brought about by U.S. and EU sanctions.

But the US and European countries justified the sanctions by arguing that they only affect about 160 Zimbabwean officials and their immediate families, all of whom have gotten rich through land theft, war profiteering (in the Congo), and political corruption and added that the sanctions had no impact on wider trade and development. They believe that the Zimbabwe’s economy clearly needs rescuing through the changes in the Mugabe’s policies and Democracy promotion.31 These unpalatable conditions led to popular demands for reform throughout Africa. The African opposition was encouraged by events in Europe, namely the crumbling of the Berlin Wall, the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe, and the demise of the Soviet Union. African demands for political liberalization also got a boost from the West and international financial institutions.32 28 “ Princeton N. Lyman, Democracy in Africa, http://www.CFR.org/publications/13950/preparedtestimony_before_the_senate_committee_on_Foreign_relations_subcommittee_on_African_affaires.html, July 1709” 22 “William Eagle, http://www.Vainews.com/english/archive/2006-03/2006-03-15-voa45.cfm?CFID306873320&CFTOKEN=1-123891&jsessionid-88306c7f865b06ac9134a2a45b5f5201142, 15 March 2006”

29 30 “Roger Bate, Enabling Zimbabwe’s Dictator, http://www.amercan.com/archive/2008/jine-06-08/enablingzimbabwe2019s-dictator, Tuesday, June 24,2008” 31 “Ibid, June 24,2008” 32

The US has always been having controversial debates about how and to what extent the United States should make the support of democracy a principal element of its foreign policy.

Opponents of the US intervention justify their stance because of the disappointment of the developments in the Middle East and elsewhere that raised doubts about this objective.

On the other side, proponents of the US intervention argue that the support of democracy in Africa is not only important but justified by the desire and support for democracy by Africans themselves who are fully committed towards achieving it. This internal demand for democracy has been sustained because after a generation after independence of failed political and economic policies, most Africans came to the conclusion that only an open political system, and a free market economic system, can generate the growth necessary to overcome Africa’s deep problems of poverty. Thus support for democracy goes hand in hand with programs to address Africa’s poverty. Also they believe that Africans, in Benin, Mali, South Africa, Zambia, Malawi, Kenya, Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and other countries have advocated, demonstrated, sometimes risked indeed often lost their lives, and stood in long voting lines to establish democratic systems of government. These systems are not perfect, and there has been some serious backsliding in Africa. But the trend has been more consistent and impressive than in any other region. From 1960 to 1990, there were hardly any peaceful changes of leaders in Africa.

Since 1990, there have been more than 80 leadership elections in more than 40 African countries, several instances of power passing to opposition parties, and only a handful of military coups, almost all of them quickly reversed. The Africa Union, the predecessor organization of which was once a clique of military or otherwise autocratic rulers, today will not seat a government that comes to power by non-constitutional means and has intervened on several occasions to reverse coups and restore elected government.33 South Africa is a proof that is referred to by US intervention promoters. In South Africa, the negotiations to end apartheid, and to establish one of the strongest and most democratic constitutions anywhere in the world, was led throughout by South Africans. In that environment, the United States was able to play an important supportive role, and a most active one. Because the process was fragile, and subject to continuing violence, it was important to take every possible opportunity to strengthen it. Thus the United States spent tens of millions of dollars in “ El Khawas Mohamed, Democracy in Africa: Problems and solutions, Mediterranean Quarterly- Volume 12, Number 3, summer 2001, pp.85-97” 33 “ Princeton N. Lyman, Democracy in Africa, http://www.CFR.org/publications/13950/preparedtestimony_before_the_senate_committee_on_Foreign_relations_subcommittee_on_African_affaires.html, July 1709”

the period of 1990-1994 to strengthen civil society, to provide expertise to the negotiators on every aspect of constitutional debate -- e.g. federalism, fiscal management, affirmative action -to support conflict resolution programs being run by South Africans throughout the country, and to train the new leadership. In support of the 1994 election alone, the United States spent $25 million on voter education and related support. It was a worthwhile investment. South Africa remains a vibrant and strong democracy.34 Accordingly, Voices in the US are rising for taking more serious actions towards promoting democracy and achieving stability in Africa.

They view the US role in Africa can be summarized to achieve the following goals; Governments that are democratic, stable, effective and responsible, equitable economic growth, prevention and resolution of conflicts, and effective responses to transnational issues.35 So the controversial questions now raised in the senate are” Should the US interfere and promote the African democracy for the protection of its self interests in the continent? Is it the right time?

To what extent should it interfere? Or as viewed by others, it will be another major mistake that will be at the expense of the US tax payers especially after the dramatic US financial crisis!!

Case Study: Sudan: Sudan is very critical and significant to Egypt as it is considered to be the southern gate of Egypt and its southern extension. Thus, by its geographical location and historical relations with Egypt, what is happening now in Darfur is considered to be from the main threats to our national security.

1- Darfur: The tensions in this territory could be traced back to 1932 with the rise between different tribes over the sources of water which also happened at 1982 and was formally recognized to be the beginning of the crisis at 2003 when some rebel movements attacked governmental sites there like police stations and airports.

34 “ Ibid, July 17-09” 35 John Shattuck on human rights/ Democracy in Africa, Bureau of Democracy, human rights, and labor, February 22,1995

It is worth to note that now the most important rebel movements in Darfur are the Justice and Equality movement and the Sudan Liberation Movement/Army and they contain many splits and divisions which make negotiations and compromise very difficult.

The reasons beyond the appearance of such rebels and movements are local, territorial and international.

The local reasons: The tensions between the nomadic Arab tribes and the farmers of African tribes over resources and influence with the absence of one national identity to establish one nation for all the races, languages, tribesâ&#x20AC;Ś etc and this led to the establishment of political identities and to deepen the divisions in the society.

The mal distribution of wealth and resources in the society and between the different regions with a relatively advanced north at the expense of other territories that Darfur lacked investment, infrastructure and the needed economic development and this led to bad conditions of living led the youth to participate in military groups and refuge to violence and extremism.

The rebels of Darfur invested all these conditions to demand a part of the authority position for western Sudan like what was mentioned in the black book of the Justice and Equality Movement that it seeks the division of ministries and political positions in the state proportionately among the territories of Sudan and to end the mal and unequal distribution of wealth.

Territorial reasons: It is mainly the role of the neighbor country, first Libya provided the tribes in Darfur with a huge amount of arms because of some tensions and disagreement between Al Qaddafi and Al Bashir, so that Libya had a big role in the armament of the rebels in Darfur.

Also Eritrea supported the rebels because of the state of aggression between it and Sudan as Sudan trained and supported the Eritrean Islamic organization "Al Jihad" and neglected the Eritrean role in this conflict.

However, this conflict had Territorial implications as from the other side, Darfur is the backyard of Chad with a great number of refugees there besides most of the tribes in Darfur have an extension in Chad like El Zagawah tribe to which the president of Chad belong.

The phases of the conflict: Phase 1: conflict between the residence in this territory from different tribes and each other.

Phase 2: the escalation of the conflict to be between the Sudanese government and the rebel movements.

Phase 3: the intervention of international actors by the name of preserving human rights.

The American position from the conflict:

The USA described what happened and the conditions in Darfur as a genocide administered by the Sudanese government especially after Colin Powell's visit to Sudan at 2004. This was mainly because at that time it was the American presidential election and President Bush wanted to win the support of the afro-American groups and lobbies and also to ensure that it has the upper hand over other international actors (France and Britain).

2- South of Sudan: In 1956, Sudan, the east African country, gained independence from Britain and Egypt. For almost four decades Sudan was subject to many has been intermittent conflict.

There are many sources of this conflict which are very deep and complicated. Religion is a very important factor that shapes this conflict because current government is ruling according to an Islamic fundamentalist agenda dominated by a majority Muslim/Arab in the north. Meanwhile the Southerners, who are Christian and animist, reject the Islamization of the country and favor a secular arrangement. Besides, Social and economic disparities play major role as contributing factors to the Sudanese conflict. On January 9, 2005 and after almost two years of negotiations both, the government of Sudan and the Sudan Peopleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Liberation Movement (SPLM), signed the Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) at a ceremony in Nairobi, Kenya. This agreement ended successfully the 21-year-old civil war and triggered a six-year Interim Period. At the end of this interim Period, the southerners are to have a referendum to decide their political future. National, regional, and local elections are to take place during the second half of the Interim Period the end of this Period will be on January 9, 2011. 36 U.S.A played a very important role in the peace process between the south and the north. President Bushâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s former Special Envoy, John Danforth, made several trips to the region in his attempts to put an end to this conflict. Not only this but also Former Secretary of State Colin Powell was engaged in the peace process and she also traveled to Kenya to encourage the parties, according to U.S. officials and Sudanese sources. Sustained U.S. pressure on the government of Sudan helped secure the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. 37 36 http://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33574.pdf 37 ibid

Still, many issues remain unsolved such as the issue of separate protocol for Abyei. Both the north and the south of Sudan claim the area. The area is of a great importance as it grossed about $670 million in oil revenues in 2006. A portion of the area's oil revenue is supposed to go directly to residents of Abyei, but there were concerns at the time of the agreement about how the money was being shared. The Abyei protocol gives the area a special administrative status and that calls calls for a referendum in 2011 to determine if the area will be part of the north or the south. In the same year the referendum on whether south Sudan will secede from the north will take place.38 U.S. policy toward Sudan is complicated because the same government that signed the peace agreement with the South is also the one implicated in atrocities in Darfur, which the U.S. government has declared it as genocide.

II- Combating terrorism in the Horn of Africa: The horn of Africa is located in the North east of Africa. The horn of Africa is of a major importance due to its strategic location as proximity to the Persian Gulf and the fact that it forms a chokepoint on the sea lanes that pass through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. It consists of countries such as Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Sudan, Eretria United republic of Tanzania. Throughout history the Horn has been a scene of conflicts which involved the most powerful countries of the world as it can be seen the interest of super powers of today's world is threatened by the domestic conflicts of the countries of the Horn. The issues of this region varies between terrorism, Piracy, Democracy issues and HIV/ADIS these issues managed to place the horn on top of the agenda of U.S.A along with many other superpowers.

Somalia is considered as a corn stone of terrorism in the region. It raises great concerns in regard of terrorism and security related issues. Many reason caused the vulnerability of Somali to become a safe haven for terrorists. On top of these reasons: Instability as Somalia is known to be without central government since ouster of the government of Dictator Siad Barre in 1991.Eversince that many warlords and movements that claimed the separation and independence of different regions but none of them succeeded in having a firm control over the region. In 2000, a number of Somali political figures formed the transitional national government still this government didn't receive recognition from all the political figures in the region. In fact many of the movement and political groups in the region attempt to bring this government down.39 The spread of Islamic fundamentalism in Somalia. In the mid-1990s, Islamic courts began to emerge in parts of the country, especially in the capital of Mogadishu. These courts functioned as local governments and often enforced decisions by using their own militia. The so-called Islamic groups such as Al Ittihad Al Islami (Islamic Union) which was added by the Bush administration to the list of terrorism-related entities whose assets were frozen by an Executive Order in late September 2001. Bush Administration officials accused Al Ittihad Al Islami of links with Al Qaeda. Besides this Islamic group there are others such as Al 38 http://www.cfr.org/publication/16388/sudans_interlocking_crises.html 39 http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/7959.pdf

Islah (Reform) and Al Tabligh (Conveyers of God’s Work). Even none of these groups managed to remain active still some of their leaders are now leaders of groups engaged in terrorist activities in Somalia.40 Also we have to mention "Al-Shabaab" movement which is another Islamic organization which controls most of the southern of Somalia except the capital Mogadishu. This organization was added to the United Status's list of foreign terrorist organizations in February 2008, claiming that "Al-Shabaab "has an allegiance with al-Qaeda. The strongest tie between these groups is mainly ideological and confirmed this linkage as. In September 2008, a senior Shabaab leader released a video in which he pledged allegiance to Osama bin Laden and called for Muslim youth to come to Somalia. Followed by a video of, Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda's second-in-command where he began by praising Shabaab's seizure of the Somali town of Baidoa in February 2009.41 U.S role in the region goes way back in the history stating with the Greater Horn of Africa Initiative known as the Clinton administration in the mid-1990s which tried to deal with the countries as an integrated region. After that the role of U.S in the region was minimized due to the tragic events of Black Hawk Down that lead to an eventual withdrawal of U.S. forces and the withdrawal of a great majority of the international community from Somalia. U.S. then reacting again in Somalia did not begin again until 1996.At that time, U.S. policy focused mainly on containing Somalia’s problems within the country’s borders so the instability did not spread in the region Then The Djibouti Peace Process began in 2008 and led to the formation of the current Transitional Federal Government. The Obama Administration is working to address these challenges in an attempt to achieve its foreign policy goals in Somalia represented in political and economic stability and eliminating terrorism.42 In the battle against terrorism many of the Horn's countries play an important role; Djibouti a majority Somali populated nation plays a proactive role than other nations in the region in combating terrorism. In spite of its limited resources and domestic issue Djibouti was able to hut all financial institutions linked to any terrorist group as well as removal of illegal immigrants. Other countries such as Ethiopia and Kenya have strong ties with U.S.A and mange it's domestic issues and conflicts which limit the spread of any terrorist groups .On the constant, we have Eretria with is a lot of conflicts and issues paving the road to terrorist groups and organization to intervene in its matter still Eretria is standing in face of these group and does its best in the battle against terrorism.43

III- Maritime Security in Africa: 40 Al Qaeda and Affiliates: Historical Perspective, Global Presence, and Implications for U.S. Policy 41 http://www.cfr.org/publication/18650/ 42 http://www.state.gov/p/af/rls/rm/2009/123729.htm

43Robert I. Rotberg. 2005. Battling Terrorism in the Horn of Africa. USA: Brookings Institution Press and World Peace Foundation. P 210.

Piracy in Somalia: Another major concern in Africa results from Piracy in the Horn of Africa due to its strategic location which increases its impotence for international security and commerce.

According to The International Maritime Bureau (IMB) 111 attacks took place in the waters off the Horn of Africa in 2008(which is double of the number of attacks that occurred in 2007).

U.S. State Department on September 14, 2009; reported 156 attacks had occurred in those waters since January 2009, with 33successful hijackings. Attacks remain concentrated in the Gulf of Aden between Yemen and the northern coast of Somalia.44 The increase in the attacks in the horn of Africa is a direct result of the instability & ongoing insecurity and the absence of the rule of law in war-torn Somalia. Also another reason is that the fishermen turn to pirates due to the illegal fishing and toxic waste dumping that has been ignored by foreign governments which destroyed the way of their lives. Piracy in the horn of Africa represents a very dangerous threat toward global trade as Somali piracy increase and incurs economic coasts in different ways which include: ransom payments, damage to ships and cargoes, delays in delivering cargoes, increased maritime insurance rates, the costs of steps to harden merchant ships against attack, and costs for using naval forces for anti-piracy operations.

Along with the threat to the arrival of Humanitarian aids and assistance that most of them arrives by sea.45 Due to the clan-based organization of Somali society, the lack of a central government, and the country's strategic location at the Horn of Africa, conditions were ripe for the growth of piracy in the early 1990s. "The root of the problem isn't at sea, but on shore."46 In regard of this matter U.S policy developed over year as U.S.A took the lead in supporting international efforts to repress piracy and other acts of violence against maritime navigation .In 2005, U.S. National Maritime Security Strategy stated that the safety and economic security of the United States depends upon securing the use of the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s oceans and identified well organized pirates and criminals to be a threat to international maritime security.

After that the Bush administration adopted a Policy for the Repression of Piracy and other Criminal Acts of Violence at Sea where it acknowledged that the urging of other states to take decisive action both individually and through international efforts is the policy of the United States.

In December 2008, the Bush Administration issued an implementation plan based on that policy to address piracy threats in the Horn of Africa region. In the plan three main lines of action for U.S policy were identified as follows: â&#x20AC;&#x153;1) prevent pirate attacks by reducing the vulnerability of the maritime domain to piracy; 2) disrupt acts of piracy consistent with international law and the rights and responsibilities of coastal and flag States; and 3) ensure that those who commit acts of piracy

44 http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R40528.pdf 45 http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R40528.pdf 46 http://www.mercycorps.org/emails/email20090417_somalia1.html

are held accountable for their actions by facilitating the prosecution of suspected pirates by flag, victim and coastal States, and, in appropriate cases, the United States.â&#x20AC;?47 The policies developed by Bush administration were endorsed and enhanced by Obama administration. The Obama Administration outlined new implementation plans. Also, it increased material assistance to the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in support of its efforts to provide security ashore .Besides, U.S. officials and military personnel have engaged with leaders and officials from the regions of Puntland to encourage them to take action against piracy and to improve coordination with international efforts as most pirates are aged 20â&#x20AC;&#x201C;35 years old and come from the region of Puntland, a region in northeastern Somalia.

48

A new report, Piracy in Somalia: Threatening Global Trade, Feeding Local Wars, points to Somalia as the perfect breeding ground for pirates. Piracy has been rather disruptive at times, with regard to commercial shipping and freedom of navigation. In 2008, this phenomenon has more than doubled in Somalia that the international community has to be aware that pirates may be involved in terrorist networks. An important danger for this phenomenon rests in the possibility that shipping could be forced to avoid the Gulf of Aden/Suez Canal and divert around the Cape of Good Hope which will the costs of manufactured goods and oil from Asia and the Middle East. Needless to say that piracy n Somalia can generate environmental problems in the Gulf of Aden if a tanker is sunk or run aground or set on fire. The use of ever more powerful weaponry makes this increasingly likely. 49

Drug Trafficking in Africa: DRUG trafficking in Africa has been on the increase in the past few years, with about 40 tons of cocaine entering Europe from Africa in 2006. Drawn by its vast coastline, limited law 47 ibid 48 ibid 49 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/665/

enforcement capacity and weak governance Latin America drug traffickers in recent years have turned west Africa into a major transshipments point for cocaine and other illegal drugs, itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s estimated that 60% of the cocaine sold in Europe now passes through nations such as Guinea, Bissau, Togo, Ghana and Senegal .About 24 tons of heroin is consumed in eastern and southern Africa each year - more than in North America. The drugs come in via air and sea from India and Pakistan.50 The problem is not isolated to West Africa alone. Kenya and Ethiopia have become major transshipments routes for heroin coming out of Afghanistan and Pakistan .The impact this has is seen in crime and corruption in the affected countries and ultimately an increase in drug use by people in the transshipment points.51 Western intelligence sources describe it as "the worst drugs trafficking problem we've ever encountered on the [African] continent", and admit they have been blind-sided by the sheer scale of it. "The more we learn, the more we're shocked by the numbers involved. We've all been slow off the mark," said one top US Drug Enforcement Agency official in Europe.

For five years UNODC has been warning about West Africa becoming a hub for cocaine trafficking from Latin America to Europe. This has a major impact on local economies, undermines governance and deepens corruption. It also appears that the usage of cocaine increases in West Africa, although monitoring systems are weak.

Fighting drug problem and dealing with drug gangs Drug trafficking cases in West Africa continue to increase.Interpol estimates that two thirds of drug to be sold in Europe this year will go through West Africa. Former operations chief of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, Michael Braun, has made a similar statement about the alarming drug trafficking situation in West Africa, corroborating the prediction by Interpol. Mr. Braun was quoted by the associated press on March 15, 2009 as saying â&#x20AC;&#x153;vast majority of cocaine that is now going through West Africa".52 It is feared that the new wave of drug trade in the sub region that is already home to poverty and insecurity .Although there has been a slight decrease in cocaine volumes seized in Europe coming from West Africa, possibly due to greater international attention and assistance, the situation remains "fragile," the UN official said. "We need more information and statistics to 50 http://allafrica.com/stories/200910150584.html 51 http://subsaharanafricanaffairs.suite101.com/article.cfm/west_africa_as_new_hub_of_drug_trafficking 52 Ibid.

analyze and address the drug situation in Africa."

U.S. Africa Command also is a key player in a broader effort to crack down on narcotics trafficking in Western Africa, William Wechsler, deputy assistant secretary of defense for counternarcotics and global threats, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee earlier this week.

"Although we are still defining the scope, we know that drug trafficking in West Africa is a major problem, it's growing rapidly, and we expect it to grow over the coming years," he said at the June 23 hearing. The repercussions are far-reaching, Wechsler warned. "This endangers peace, stability, democracy [and] our efforts to promote security sector reform in West Africa, and poses an increasing threat to both our Africa and our European partners."

Wechsler pointed to initiatives already under way, in which U.S. Africa Command is working hand in hand with U.S. Southern Command's Joint Interagency Task Force South, the Defense Intelligence Agency, Naval Forces Africa and others to monitor the drug flow and support projects aimed at stemming it.

Projects already under way in West Africa include constructions of boat and refueling facilities for the regional navies and coast guards, student sponsorship for classroom training, construction of a screening facility in Ghana and establishment of an information fusion center in Cape Verde, he said.

"All these programs are - it must be stressed - a result of a real interagency development process, and that's critical for the success of any of these programs," Wechsler said, emphasizing the need for more and closer cooperation.

The United Nations Convention on Law Of the Sea: “More than 90 percent of global trade is carried by sea. And beyond trade, a host of other issues, ranging from climate change and energy to defense and piracy, ensure that the oceans are holding considerable strategic interest.”, as the International Maritime Organization declared.53 The oceans have long been a critical arena for international relations. Before there was air travel and instantaneous communication, people, goods, and ideas traveled the world by ship. For centuries a strong maritime presence—both military and commercial—has been essential for states with great power aspirations. Today, even with advances in technology, seaborne commerce remains the linchpin of the global economy.54 53 http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2009/05/07/07greenwire-sen-kerry-looks-for-window-to-ratify-law-of-th12208.html, 54 Ibid

For the settlement of the endless disputes over seas, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea laid down a comprehensive regime of law and order in the world's oceans and seas establishing rules governing all uses of the oceans and their resources. The treaty was conceived in 1982. It enshrines the notion that all problems of ocean space are closely interrelated and need to be addressed as a whole.55 The treaty comprises 320 articles and nine annexes, governing all aspects of ocean space, such as delimitation, environmental control, marine scientific research, economic and commercial activities, transfer of technology and the settlement of disputes relating to ocean matters.56 But it focuses primarily on navigational and transit issues. It also contains provisions on the regulation of deep-sea mining and the redistribution of wealth to underdeveloped countries--as well as sections regarding marine trade, pollution, research, and dispute resolution.57

From the key features of the treaty are: * Ships and aircraft of all countries are allowed "transit passage" through straits used for international navigation; States bordering the straits can regulate navigational and other aspects of passage; * Archipelagic States, made up of a group or groups of closely related islands and interconnecting waters, have sovereignty over a sea area enclosed by straight lines drawn between the outermost points of the islands; the waters between the islands are declared archipelagic waters where States may establish sea lanes and air routes in which all other States enjoy the right of archipelagic passage through such designated sea lanes; * Coastal States have sovereign rights in a 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ) with respect to natural resources and certain economic activities, and exercise jurisdiction over marine science research and environmental protection; * All other States have freedom of navigation and over flight in the EEZ, as well as freedom to lay submarine cables and pipelines;

55http://www.un.org/Depts/los/convention_agreements/convention_overview_convention.htm) 56 Ibid, www.un.org 57 http://www.heritage.org/research/internationalOrganizations/wm479.cfm, web memo no. 470

* Land-locked and geographically disadvantaged States have the right to participate on an equitable basis in exploitation of an appropriate part of the surplus of the living resources of the EEZ's of coastal States of the same region or sub-region; highly migratory species of fish and marine mammals are accorded special protection; * States are bound to promote the development and transfer of marine technology "on fair and reasonable terms and conditions", with proper regard for all legitimate interests; * States Parties are obliged to settle by peaceful means their disputes concerning the interpretation or application of the Convention.58 For the importance of such a treaty as obviously explained through the articles, more than 150 countries have ratified it, yet about 38 countries didnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t ratify it where among them is the USA that has signed but not ratified it.59 It was 1st introduced to US president Reagan. President Reagan refused to sign the Treaty in 1982 due to its innate conflict with basic free-market principles (e.g., private property, free enterprise, and competition). He believed that the treaty would restrict the world's supply of minerals as it was originally designed to limit the exploitation of heavy minerals in order to protect the mineral sales of land-locked, developing nations. He also considered the mandatory dispute resolution that restricts the autonomy. Either a U.N. court or tribunal must mandate maritime issues involving fisheries, marine environmental protection, and preservation, research, and navigation.

A country may opt out if the dispute involves maritime boundaries, military or limited law enforcement activities. Submitting to external jurisdiction creates an uncomfortable precedent.

Furthermore, it weakens the U.S. argument of autonomy when it refuses to submit to the International Criminal Court. Twelve years later, the Clinton Administration submitted to the U.S. Senate a revised version of the Treaty. This revised version allegedly corrected many of the original objections to the Treaty, but still failed to receive Senate ratification: Therefore, the United States' provisional participation expired in 1998.60

58 http://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/comvention_overview_convention.htm 59 http://ratifylawofthesea.org/?page, id-312 60 OP-CIT, www.heritage.org, April 2-2004

Moving on to the Bush Administration, surprisingly, Bush was for the ratification of the treaty and called for its support many times in the senate. This support drew him to severe opposition from the conservatives. As opposed by many senators, they believed that Treaty is a dangerous treaty that the US has to reject as it hampers the operations of the Navy and it has the potential to hamper the efforts of the proliferation security initiative. They also think that it would allow foreign vessels and warships passage rights into their territorial waters and create regulation and taxation by an international body. Subsequently, it presents a legal danger for American businesses through exposure to the international court system.61 Having Obama with African roots, it is believed that new and more active policies will be conducted towards Africa. As named previously as the â&#x20AC;&#x153;dark continentâ&#x20AC;? by Americans, Obama believes that it is the continent of opportunity, interests, and hope. US, as one of the major countries having trade interests passing through the seas and oceans in Africa, is reconsidering LOST ratification. This is primarily because of the recent and rising Piracy problems that the US and other countries trade ships faced especially on the Somali coasts.

Obama believes that the ratification of the treaty will end up many conflicts caused by seas and oceans and will drive the world into peace and stability. Also he calls for the ratification by all countries including Africa in order to fully co-ordinate efforts to combat many crucial & rising problems like piracy that has become a major concern for the entire world.62 Despite of the support that the treaty had from two successive administrations in addition to the current one, the treaty fails to have the required number of votes for its ratification and still faces severe criticism and opposition that hinders the efforts of the politicians calling for its support.

Can the Obama administration and the supporters in the senate succeed in making a change and ratify it? Will the US ever ratify it?

61 http://www.citizensforaconstitutionalrepublic.com/Opposition_To_Law_Of_The_Sea_Treaty.html 62 http://www.worldwatch.org/node/5993, January 22,2009

Committee on Finance Background Paper Prepared By:

Chairman: Adib Farid Vice Chairman: Ahmad Radwan Ranking Member: Moureen Hamdy Party Consultant: Salma ElShafie

â&#x20AC;&#x153;No nation, however large or small, wealthy or poor, can escape the impact of climate change.â&#x20AC;? President Obama

“To the people of poor nations, we pledge to work, alongside you to make your farms flourish”.

President Obama

MAC’10

Table of Contents  History of the Committee on Finance First Topic: Climate Change, Trade and Competitiveness……Is a collision inevitable?

I. Climate Change and National security: 1. Definition of National Security.

2. Does Climate Change affect national Security?

3. What is Climate Change?

4. What is the difference between global warming and Climate Change? i. ii.

Global Warming.

Climate Change.

5. Scientific history of Climate Change.

6. Effects of Climate Change: a) The effect of climate change on mountain glaciers, ice caps, ice sheets and ice shelves. b) The effect of climate change on oceans.

7. Climate change and the nuclear energy.

8. Future impact on economy, small businesses, human health and agriculture: a) Economy. b) Small businesses. c) Human Health. i. ii.

Direct effects.

Indirect effects.

d) Agriculture: i. ii.

Land resources.

Biodiversity.

II.

Climate Change and Global Competitiveness: 1. What is meant by Global Competitiveness?

2. Climate Change in China: a) Chinese political system. b) Trend of Climate Change in China. c) Temperature. d) Extreme climate/weather events: i. ii.

Sea level.

Glaciers.

3. Challenges: a) Coal. b) Dependency on energy technologies. c) Relatively low level of economic development.

4. Chinese actions towards Climate Change.

5. Climate Change in India: a) Indian Political system. b) Trend of Climate Change in India. i.

Agriculture.

ii. Risk of sea level rise. iii.

Risk of extreme events.

6. Challenges: a) Costs of Changing Energy Strategy. b) Lower GDP. 7. Indian Steps towards Climate Change.

III.

The United Nation's convention in general and the Kyoto protocol in particular:

ď&#x192;ź The United Nations framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC) 1. The Kyoto protocol: a) The Kyoto mechanisms. b) The road ahead. c) The Kyoto protocol's pros and cons. d) What Is US history with the Kyoto Protocol? e) Why did President Bush Withdraw US Support? f) The Future of the Kyoto Protocol. g) Obama brings the US in from the cold.

2. The Copenhagen summit: a) Copenhagen a â&#x20AC;&#x153;window of opportunity". b) A glance at history. c) Status of the Copenhagen Climate Change Negotiations: i.

A shared long-term vision to 2050.

ii.

Obligations to Mitigate GHG Emissions.

iii.

Financial assistance to Low-income countries.

iv.

Technology development and transfer

v.

Public versus private financing.

Second topic: Foreign Direct Investment in Agriculture and facing hunger in Africa: I. Genetically Modified crops and their effect on the balance of trade: 1. Definition of Genetically Modified crops.

2. Why are Genetically Modified foods produced?

3. Scientific advantages of Genetically Modified crops. a)

Pest resistance.

b)

Disease resistance.

c)

Drought tolerance.

d)

Pharmaceuticals medicines and vaccines.

4. Criticism against GM crops. a)

b)

c)

Environmental hazards. i.

Increased use of Herbicides.

ii.

More pesticides.

iii.

Ecology may be damaged.

iv.

Gene pollution cannot be cleaned up.

Human health risk: i.

No long term safety testing.

ii.

Toxins.

iii.

Decreased nutritional value.

iv.

Antibiotic resistant bacteria.

v.

Side effects can kill.

Economic concerns.

5. The effect of Genetically Modified crops on the African economy.

6. The effect of Genetically Modified crops on the American economy.

II.

Foreign Direct Investment in Africa:

1. History.

2. Chinese investment in Africa.

3. Indian investment in Africa.

4. US investment in Africa.

III.

Bioagriculture industry in the USA: 1. What is Bioagriculture?

2. Crop biotechnology.

3. Increasing yields.

4. Crop biotechnology in developing countries.

IV.

Trade Vs. Aid: 1. US â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Southern African Customs Union Free Trade Agreement.

2. Background. a)

The 2002 Agreement.

b)

SACU Tariff structure.

c)

Progress of the Negotiations.

d)

Foreign Aid and performance programs.

e)

Generalized System of Preferences (GSP).

f)African growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).

3. US Aid to Africa.

4. Agriculture.

5. USAIDâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s approach.

Committee on Finance The Committee on Finance was among the original standing committees established on December 10, 1816, by the Senate under the authority of a Senate resolution introduced by James Barbour of Virginia.

Senate committeeâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s during early congresses were very flexible. All legislative committees during this period were appointed for a specific purpose; and when that purpose had been accomplished, the committee passed out of existence.

The committee on finance was originally established to consider the parts of President James Madison's message of December 5, 1815, concerning finance and currency matters.

However, this select committee, chaired by Senator George Campbell of Tennessee, did not cease after its responsibility was met, but rather continued throughout the 1st session of the 14th Congress.

The select committee handled two very important measures, the Tariff of 1816 and creation of the Second Bank of the United States. At the beginning of the 2d session of the 14th Congress, approval of Barbour's resolution created the standing Committee on Finance, which has met during each Congress since then. Senator Campbell was its first chairman.

Beginning in 1834, all tariff bills were referred initially to the Finance Committee. The important Tariff Act of 1842 was handled by the Finance Committee, as were a number of minor bills in the decade following the Compromise Tariff of 1833.

During World War I, legislation relating to the war risk insurance program was referred to the Finance Committee, thus beginning a new direction for consideration of veteransâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; benefits in the Senate. Within a few years, measures related to vocational rehabilitation and medical treatment for veterans with service-connected disabilities were also referred to the committee; after World War II, the committee handled the Servicemen's Readjustment Act of 1944, the socalled GI Bill of Rights, which provided a wide range of education benefits, unemployment assistance, vocational training, housing and business loan guarantees, and other benefits.

Because the Finance Committee was responsible for veterans programs from 1917 to 1946, another long-standing committee of the Senate, the Committee on Pensions gradually became unnecessary. The Legislative Reorganization Act of 1946 (Public Law 79-601) abolished the Committee on Pensions, and from 1947 to 1970, matters relating to veterans compensation and veterans measures generally were referred to the Committee on Finance, while matters relating to the vocational rehabilitation, education, medical care, civil relief, and civilian readjustment of veterans were referred to the Committee on Labor and Public Welfare. The Legislative Reorganization Act of 1970 (Public Law 91-510) transferred jurisdiction over all

veterans matters to the standing Committee on Veterans Affairs, effective with the 92d Congress.63 The Finance Committee had played an active role in the creation of the National Bank in 1816.

Here’s a list of the most significant legislation handled by the committee since 1969: 

The Tax Reform Act of 1969



The Revenue Act of 1971



The State and Local Fiscal Assistance Act of 1972



The Social Security Amendments of 1972



The Trade Act of 1974



The Social Services Amendments of 1974



Emergency unemployment compensation legislation in 1971, 1974, and 1982



The Employee Retirement and Income Security Act of 1974



The Tax Reduction Act of 1975



The Tax Reform Act of 1976



The Social Security Amendments of 1977



Legislation enacted in 1977



The Trade Agreement Act of 1979



The Crude Oil Windfall Profit Tax Act of 1980



The Social Security Disability Amendments of 1980



The Adoption Assistance and Child Welfare Act of 1980



Spending Reduction Legislation



The Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Tax Act of 1982



The Caribbean Basin Economic Recovery Act



The Child Support Enforcement Amendments of 1984



The Social Security Disability Benefits Reform Act of 1984



The Deficit Reduction Act of 198464

63 - The National Archives, Records of the Committee on Finance and Related Records, 1816-1988 http://www.archives.gov/legislative/guide/senate/chapter-09.html

64 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE, History of the committee on Finance, May 1981

First Topic: Climate Change, Trade and Competitiveness……Is a collision inevitable?

I. Climate Change and National security: 1. Definition of National Security: It is the requirement to maintain the survival of the nation-state through the use of economic, military and political power and the exercise of diplomacy. There are some measures taken to ensure national security such as using diplomacy to rally allies and isolate threats, marshalling economic power to facilitate or compel cooperation, maintaining effective armed forces, implementing civil defense and emergency preparedness measures (including antiterrorism legislation). Ensuring the resilience and redundancy of critical infrastructure, using intelligence services to detect and defeat or avoid threats and espionage, and to protect classified information, using counterintelligence services or secret police to protect the nation from internal threats.65 2. Does Climate Change affect national Security?

There is a long-standing academic debate over the extent to which resource constraints and environmental challenges lead to inter-state conflict. While some believe they alone can lead nations to attack one another, others argue that their primary effect is to act as a trigger of conflict among countries that face pre-existing social, economic, and political tension.

Regardless, it seems undeniable that severe environmental problems are likely to escalate the degree of global conflict.

Co-founder and President of the Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, Peter Gerick outlines the three most fundamental challenges abrupt climate change poses for national security:66 1. Food shortages due to decreases in agricultural production.

2. Decreased availability and quality of fresh water due to flooding and droughts.

3. Disrupted access to strategic minerals due to ice and storms.

Climate change can act as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world, and it presents significant national security challenges for the United States.

The UN Security Council—at the initiative of the UK government—held it’s first-ever debate on the potential impact of climate change on peace and security. In October 2007, the Nobel

65-National Security, Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, accessed on 15.10.2009. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_security, 66- Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall, Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security, October 2003

committee recognized this emerging threat to peace and security by awarding former vice president Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change its peace prize.

3. What is Climate Change?

The climate of the Earth is always changing. In the past it has altered as a result of natural causes. Nowadays, however, the term climate change is generally used when referring to changes in our climate which have been identified since the early part of the twentieth century.

The changes we've seen over recent years and those which are predicted over the next 100 years are thought by many to be largely as a result of human behavior rather than due to natural changes in the atmosphere.67 The greenhouse effect is very important when we talk about climate change as it relates to the gases which keep the Earth warm. Although the greenhouse effect is a naturally occurring phenomenon, it is believed that the effect could be intensified by human activity and the emission of gases into the atmosphere. It is the extra greenhouse gases which humans have released which are thought to pose the strongest threat.

4. What is the difference between global warming and Climate Change?

Many people in the media (and elsewhere) use the terms "climate change" and "global warming" interchangeably, as if they were the same thing. But there are differences between the meanings of the two terms. Getting a better handle on the definitions of and differences between "global warming" and "climate change" will help us understand why the threat caused by continued warming of the planet is so serious. i.

Global Warming: Planet Earth's current warming trend is based largely on natural warming and cooling cycles that have been happening for eons; as well as human-caused additions to greenhouse gases, which are boosting the atmosphere's ability to trap heat in the biosphere. Minor factors like an overall increase in the sun's solar intensity play a smaller role.

While greenhouse gases are an essential component of a livable planetâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;they're what keep Earth from being a lifeless ball of iceâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;humans are causing greenhouse gas levels to increase so quickly that it's causing the average global temperature to rise much faster than it would naturally.68 This warming is predicted to lead to a variety of negative effects, including:

67- Joshua W. Busby, Climate Change and National Security, Council on Foreign Relations Press, November 2007, http://www.cfr.org/publication/14862 , accessed on 19.10.2009.

68-BBC weather center, what is Climate Change? , BBC, 2007, http://www.bbc.co.uk/climate/evidence/, accessed on 19.10.2009.

1. Melting (and possible disappearance) of glaciers and mountain snow caps that feed the world's rivers and supply a large portion of the fresh water used for drinking and irrigation.

2. A rise in sea levels due to the melting of the land-based ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, with many islands and coastal areas ending up more exposed to storm damage or even underwater.

3. Increasingly costly "bad weather" events such as heat waves, droughts, floods, and severe storms.

4. Lowered agricultural productivity due to less favorable weather conditions, less available irrigation water, increased heat stress to plants, and an increase in pest activity due to warmer temperatures.

5. Increases in vector-borne infectious diseases like malaria and Lyme disease.

6. Large numbers of extinctions of higher-level species due to their inability to adapt to rapidly changing climate and habitat conditions. ii.

Climate Change:

Climate change is about much more than how warm or cool our temperatures are.

Whereas "global warming" refers to increasing global temperatures, "climate change" refers to regional conditions. Climate is defined by a number of factors, including: 1- Average regional temperature as well as day/night temperature patterns and seasonal temperature patterns.

2- Humidity.

3- Precipitation (average amounts and seasonal patterns).

4- Average amount of sunshine and level of cloudiness.

5- Air pressure and winds.

6- Storm events (type, average number per year, and seasonal patterns).

To a great extent, this is what we think of as "weather." Indeed, weather patterns are predicted to change in response to global warming:

Some areas will become drier, some will become wetter; many areas will experience an increase in severe weather events like killer heat waves, hurricanes, flood-level rains, and hail storms.69 5. Scientific history of Climate Change: Almost all scientists agree that the Earth’s climate is changing, having warmed by 0.6 to 0.9 Celsius (1.1 to 1.6 Fahrenheit) since the Industrial Revolution. Science indicates that the Earth’s global average temperature is now approaching, or possibly has passed, the warmest experienced since human civilizations began to flourish about 12,000 years ago. During the 20th Century, some areas became wetter while others experienced more droughts. Most climate scientists conclude that humans have induced a large part of the climate change since the 1970s.

Although natural forces such as solar irradiance and volcanoes contribute to variability, scientists cannot explain the climate changes of the past few decades without including the effects of elevated greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations resulting from fossil fuel use, land clearing, and industrial and agricultural emissions. Over the past 150 years, measured carbon dioxide concentrations have risen by more than one third, from about 280 parts per million to about 380.70 6. Effects of Climate Change: a) The effect of climate change on mountain glaciers, ice caps, ice sheets and ice shelves: Glaciers and ice sheets both affect and are affected by changes in Earth's climate. They are frozen fresh-water reservoirs that change volume in response to changes in temperature and snowfall. Were the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica to melt entirely, global sea level would raise about 75 meters (250 feet). Those great polar ice sheets also contribute to the formation of cold, salty sea water that sinks to fill the deep ocean. When the ice forms, it uses only water; the dissolved salts are left behind, increasing the water's salinity. And ice and snow play a role in the global energy balance by reflecting from 60 to 90 percent of the solar radiation they receive.

On a scale more relevant to peoples' daily lives, the seasonal melting of mountain glaciers contributes to summertime river flow and to the ongoing sea-level rise. Today, permanent ice covers a little less than 10 percent of Earth's land surface, yet contains almost 87 percent of its fresh water. The majority of the ice, 29 × 10 6 cubic kilometers (approximately 7 million cubic miles), is in Antarctica. The Greenland Ice Sheet holds 2.95 × 10 6 cubic kilometers (706,000 cubic miles) of ice, whereas glaciers and ice caps amount to about 0.18 × 10 6 cubic kilometers 69-Jourdan Rassás, what is the difference between climate change and global warming? , Earth911, August 17th 2007, http://earth911.com/blog/2007/08/17/green-forum-global-warming-vs-climate-change/, accessed on 20.10.2009.

70- Jane A. Leggett, Climate Change: Science and Policy Implications, Updated May 2, 2007.

(43,000 cubic miles). Although glaciers and ice caps make up less than 1 percent of Earth's terrestrial ice volume, their small size allows them to respond rapidly to climate change. Glaciers normally experience seasonal melting, which produces melt water important to the hydrologic cycle. The Columbia Glacier (shown here), a tidewater glacier (i.e., a glacier that ends in the sea) near Valdez, Alaska, has shown more extensive changes, losing ice and retreating nearly 12 kilometers (7.5 miles) from 1982 to 2000.71 Glacier melt water eventually makes its way to the ocean, where it can affect global sea level. As terrestrial ice masses grow, sea level falls; and as masses shrink, sea level rises. At the last glacial maximum, about 18,000 years ago, the growth of ice sheets and glaciers caused sea level to lower by about 120 meters (395 feet). Most of that change was due to the formation of large ice sheets in northern North America and Europe, but mountain glaciers, too, had their role.

b) The effect of climate change on oceans: The Ocean has absorbed 80 percent of the heat added to the Earth’s system by climate change so it is getting warmer. Warmer waters cause coral bleaching, which in turn negatively impacts the entire coral ecosystem. Many species will be forced to migrate so they can maintain the temperature conditions they need for feeding and reproduction. Alteration to water temperature can directly impact development, age of sexual maturity, timing of spawning, growth, and survival of most fish. Decreased upwelling due to warmer waters means that fewer important nutrients from lower in the water column will make it to the surface of the water.

Many important marine ecosystems almost completely depend on nutrients from such upwelling areas—for example, marine habitats around Islands and along the U.S. coast of California.

As in all instances, people are directly linked to life around them. People and many industries around the world rely on the ocean for food and other natural resources. For instance, upwelling areas provide some of the richest fishing grounds in the world. Likewise, coral reefs provide habitat for fish and other protein food sources for people, as well as important tourism economies in many areas. As warming ocean waters impact life within the ocean, humans and the industries dependent on them are likewise impacted.72 Although only 2 percent of the world’s land lies at or below 10 meters of elevation, these areas contain 10 percent of the world’s human population—634 million people that are directly

71-Environment and greener living, Brief history of climate change, direct gov, http://www.direct.gov.uk/en/Environmentandgreenerliving/Thewiderenvironment/Climatechange/DG_072901, accessed on 13.10.2009.

72-Conservation International, Five effects of Climate Change on the ocean -International Symposium, Effects of climate Change on the world’s oceans, May 19-23, 2008, Spain, http://www.pices.int/meetings/international_symposia/2008_symposia/Climate_change/climate_background_3.aspx, accessed on 14.10.2009.

threatened by sea level rise. The small island nations of the Pacific Ocean are the most immediately vulnerable to the impacts of climate change particularly to sea level rise.

7. Climate change and the nuclear energy: In December 1997 governments met in Kyoto, Japan, where they agreed the Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention on Climate Change, meaning that governments were committed to stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions to levels that would minimize climate change.

The electricity generating sector contributes a large percentage of global greenhouse gas emissions by burning fossil fuels. Nuclear energy, along with renewable resources such as solar, wind and hydro generates electricity without greenhouse gas emissions. Nuclear energy provides a fully developed non-fossil electricity generating option with the potential for large scale expansion. A continued steady growth of nuclear energy will allow countries to avoid emitting greenhouse gases from their electricity sector and help them to meet their Kyoto commitment.

Nuclear energy is a necessary technology to help prevent climate change.73

73- Climate Change, The connection: nuclear and climate change, http://www.climatechange.org

8. Future impact on economy, small businesses, human health and agriculture: When one asks what impact climate change has on human life, one has to take into consideration the connection between various climate variables (such as temperature or the amount of precipitations) and human activities (such as agriculture).

The scientists studying the climate point out to the fact that temperature has risen considerably in the last decades comparatively to the last 1,000 years this is what the "hockey stick" graph shows. The most plausible reason for this dramatic increase is human activities, particularly the emissions of green house gases (carbon dioxide and of a lesser importance methane). a) Economy: The true economic impact of climate change is fraught with 'hidden' costs. These costs will vary regionally and will put a strain on public sector budgets. For example, even under current conditions, the combined storm impact for the nation since 1980 has surpassed $560 billion. More frequent and intense storms would raise the price tag even higher.

"Climate change will affect every American economically in significant, dramatic ways, and the longer it takes to respond, the greater the damage and the higher the costs," says lead researcher Matthias Ruth, director of the University of Maryland's Center for Integrative Environmental Research and the Roy F. Weston Chair in Natural Economics. "The national debate is often framed in terms of how much it will cost to reduce greenhouse gases, with little or no consideration of the cost of no response or the cost of waiting. Review and analysis of existing data suggest that delay will prove costly and tip the economic scales in favor of quicker strategic action."74 Economic impacts will be unevenly distributed across regions and economic and social sectors. Examples of unequal hardships, Small niche industries -- especially in the agriculture sector -- may be devastated. Even though the losses represent a small part of the state and regional economy, these businesses are an essential element of local employment, history, culture and landscape.

Climate change will place immense strain on public sector budgets. The cost of infrastructure maintenance and replacement will likely increase, while economic losses will likely translate into reduced tax revenues. As a result, public officials may need to raise taxes, cut services, or some combination of the two. For example, Alaska's infrastructure maintenance is expected to rise by $5 billion to $10 billon; by one estimate, sea-level rise could cause between 74-Vlad Tarko, Senior Editor, Sci-Tech News, What are the Economic Effects of Climate Change, 7th of November 2006, http://news.softpedia.com/news/What-Are-the-Economic-Effects-of-Climate-Change-39570.shtml

$23 billion and $170 billion in property damage by 2100, depending on how high the sea rises; in Hawaii, sea level rise will require upgrades to drinking and wastewater facilities of nearly $2 billion over the next 20 years.75 Indirect or secondary economic effects of climate change have rarely been quantified, yet are likely to be substantial. Increased costs for raw materials, energy and transportation will likely translate into higher prices and a loss of competitiveness that could trigger declines in entire economic sectors or regions.76 Many of the projected impacts of climate change (such as damage from storms, and floods) will affect agriculture, forestry, and fishing; energy demand; and infrastructure. Because prices in those sectors are readily measured, evaluating the potential economic costs of specific effects of climate change is relatively straightforward. Thus, the significant uncertainty in estimates of economic costs arises more from uncertainty about the magnitude of future climate change and its physical impacts than from uncertainty about the economic costs of given physical impacts. b) Small businesses: There is now an overwhelming consensus that global warming is happening, however, some will say that we cannot move forward because of the costs to our economy. But in fact, the business and investment community is waking up to the business opportunities that will result from reducing greenhouse gas emissions. And while we have recently seen big businesses like GE, DuPont and BP join in the call for mandatory global warming legislation; small businesses are also leading the way. 77 Small businesses must undertake more energy efficiency projects, which will also save money, increase our competitiveness and enhance our energy security. Small businesses can also lead the way in developing innovative low carbon technologies. With a federal climate change plan now in the works, small businesses face the real possibility of being hit with double regulations and double costs. But even climate change experts have said that double costs do not equal double environmental benefits. When the program is fully implemented, the average annual loss in gross state output from small businesses alone would be $183 billion, or

75 - Science Daily, Hidden Costs Of Climate Change In US: Major, Nationwide, Uncounted, Oct. 17, 2007, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/10/071017085305.htm , 76 CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE (potential impacts of the climate changes in the united states) 7715 Peter Rafle, Statement of Senator Barbara Boxer, U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public works, March 8 2007, http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=PressRoom.PressReleases&ContentRecord_id=324CE58D802A-23AD-4139-D22400B0E3FB, accessed on October 4 2009.

approximately 10 percent. There will be nearly 1.1 million lost jobs and an average of $50,000 in increased annual costs to each small business.78 c) Human Health: Global warming is likely to affect human health in various ways. The most comprehensive national reviews of effects of climate change in the United States concluded that projected changes are likely to affect risks of morbidity (the incidence of disease) and mortality for several climate-sensitive aspects of human health, but that the overall net impact is uncertain.

Warmer climates could encourage the spread of a variety of insect-borne infectious diseases, however. Warmer conditions could also be associated with higher levels of conventional air pollution in summer months but lower levels in winter, though the most recent national assessment concluded that projections of such changes were â&#x20AC;&#x153;somewhat speculative.â&#x20AC;? In general, most of the potential impacts on human health projected for the United States over the coming century appear to be modest, on net. i.

Direct effects: 79

The effects of an increase in heat waves often would be exacerbated by increased humidity and urban air pollution. The greatest increases in thermal stress are forecast for mid to high latitude cities, especially in populations with irregular architecture and limited air conditioning. Weather conditions can influence the transportation of air-borne pollutants, pollen production and levels of fossil fuel pollutants resulting from household heating and energy demands. Climate change may increase the concentration of ground level ozone but the magnitude of the effect is uncertain. For other pollutants, the effects of climate change and/or weather are even less well known.80 ii.

Indirect effects: Climate change will have mixed effects on food production globally. Most of the research to date has focused on cereal grain productionâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;an important indicator of total food production, since it accounts for around 70% of global food energy. The probability of reduced food yields is, in general, greatest in developing countries where it is

78 The free library, Unhealthy climate changes for small businesses, September 7 2008, http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Unhealthy+climate+changes+for+small+businesses.-a0207875517, accessed on October 4 2009.

79 http://www.who.int/globalchange/publications/climchange.pdf

80 Congress of the United States Congressional Budget office, Potential impacts of climate change in the United States, May 2009. http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/101xx/doc10107/05-04-ClimateChange_forWeb.pdf

estimated that approximately 790 million people currently are undernourished Populations in isolated areas with poor access to markets will be particularly vulnerable to local decreases or disruptions of food supply in addition to Vector borne infectious disease and water borne infectious disease. d) Agriculture: Life cycle of grain and oilseed crops will likely progress more rapidly; but with rising temperatures and variable rainfall, crops will begin to experience failure, especially if precipitation lessens or becomes more variable. Climate change is leading to a northward migration of cropland weeds, and range and pasture plant species, which affects crops, grazing land, and livestock operations. Higher temperatures will very likely reduce livestock production during the summer season; ruminants may be particularly affected because generally shelter is not provided to buffer the adverse effects of changing climate. i.

Land resources: Climate change has likely increased the size and number of forest fires, insect outbreaks and tree mortality. Rising CO2 will very likely increase photosynthesis for forests, but this increase will likely only enhance wood production in young forests on fertile soils.

ii.

Biodiversity: The rapid rate of warming in the Arctic observed in recent decades – and projected to continue for at least the next century – is dramatically reducing snow and ice cover that provide denying and forage habitat for polar bears. Corals in many tropical regions are experiencing substantial mortality from increasing water temperatures and increasing storm intensity.

II. Climate Change and Global Competitiveness: “China and other developing nations should not ... be asked to take on obligations that go beyond their development stage” said Hu Jintao the Chinese president.

1. What is meant by Global Competitiveness?

The competitiveness of a nation, by analogy, corresponds to its ability to sell more to the rest of the world than it buys from it .The World Economic Forum defines global competitiveness as the ability of a country to achieve sustained high rates of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Therefore only nations with high levels of productivity will become domestically and globally competitive and have the capacity to exploit existing market opportunities to sustain and expand employment and real income growth in the long term. The imperatives for global competitiveness involve addressing the following issues: macroeconomic policies; government practices and regulations; the cost of doing business; R&D and innovation;

sustainable environmental management; conformity with international standards; and total factor productivity.81 There must be policies and strategies for the development of a sustainable integrated system to protect the environment and reduce waste.82 The Global Competitiveness Report 20092010 argues that after several years at the top of the rankings, the United States falls one place and is ranked 2nd this year. Although the country is very competitive overall, there are some weaknesses in particular areas. Some aspects of the institutional environment could be strengthened, with particular concerns on the part of the business community about the governmentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s ability to maintain arms-length relationships with the private sector and in the perception that the government spends its resources wastefully.83 2. Climate Change in China: a) Chinese political system: The primary organs of state power are the National People's Congress (NPC), the President, and the State Council. Members of the State Council include the Premier, a variable number of vice premiers (now four), five state councilors (protocol equal of vice premiers but with narrower portfolios), and 29 ministers and heads of State Council commissions. During the 1980s there was an attempt made to separate party and state functions, with the party deciding general policy and the state carrying it out. The attempt was abandoned in the 1990s with the result that the political leadership within the state is also the leaders of the party, thereby creating a single centralized focus of power. b) Trend of Climate Change in China: Many observations in recent 100 years show that the earthâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s climate is now experiencing significant change characterized by global warming. And the trend of climate change in China is generally consistent with that of global climate change.

The Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has clearly indicated that most of the global warming observed over the past 50 years was likely induced by the increase in concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O), due to human activities. In the context of global warming, climate in China has experienced noticeable changes over the past 100 years as well. The major observed evidence of climate change in China includes the following: c) Temperature: 81 Alain Nurbel, The Global Competitiveness of the Nation: A Conceptual Discussion, Journal of business and Economics Research, Volume 5, October 2007.

82 Mah Lok Abdullah, The imperative for Enhancing Global Competitiveness, Asian Productivity Organization (APO).

83 Schwab, World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Report 2009-2010, 2009

Annual average air temperature has increased by 0.5~0.8°C during the past 100 years, which was slightly larger than the average global temperature rise. Most of the temperature rise was observed over the last 50 years. The regional distribution of the temperature changes shows that the warming trend was more significant in western, eastern and northern China than in the south of the Yangtze River. The seasonal distribution of the temperature changes shows that the most significant temperature increase occurred in winter, and 20 consecutive warm winters were observed nationwide from 1986 to 2005.

“China will be hit hard by climate change, as temperature is predicted to rise above the global average” John Beddington, the UK's chief scientific adviser, said. 84

d) Extreme climate/weather events: The frequency and intensity of extreme climate/weather events throughout China have experienced obvious changes during the last 50 years. Drought in northern and northeastern China, and flood in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and southeastern China have become more severe.

In 2002, a drought hit most of parts of north, middle and west part of northeast, north part of Yellow River and Huai River, east part of northwest and some parts of south and southwest.

According to the statistics 15.9 million rural people suffered from temporary shortage of drinking water. In 2002, there were 29 earthquakes in China registered as 5 scales of magnitude above. Among that, there were 25 earthquakes with 5 scales of magnitude, 2 earthquakes with 6 scales of magnitude and 2 earthquakes with 7 scales of magnitude. 19 earthquakes occurred in Taiwan.

In 2002, there were 40246 cases of various types of geological disasters in the country, causing the death of 853 people, disappearance of 109 people and injury of 1797 people.

Moreover, there were some oceanic disasters, windstorms, sandstorms and rainstorms. i.

Sea level:

The rate of sea level rise along China’s coasts during the past 50 years was 2.5 mm/a, slightly higher than the global average. ii.

Glaciers:

The mountain glaciers in China have retreated, and the trend is accelerating. The glaciers in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the Tianshan Mountains would retreat at an accelerated rate, and some smaller glaciers would disappear.

84 Liang Qiwan, Climate Change will hit China hard says UK scientist, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/200904/02/content_7642477.htm, updated on 2 April 2009, accessed on 25 October 2009.

At least 300,000 people in north-west China are short of drinking water because of unseasonably warm weather, which official’s link to climate change. Parts of Shaanxi province face drought after January saw as little as 10% of average rainfall, state media say. Frozen lakes are melting and trees are blossoming in the capital Beijing as it experiences its warmest winter for 30 years.

Many scientists consider China to be the most vulnerable of all the major nations to climate change. “Climate change is a big worry for China's politicians," says Zhou Yong Zhang, environment professor at Sun-Yat Sen University in nearby Guangzhou. "In south China, we worry about sea level rise because it will have a big impact on us. We also worry about the extreme weather.

"The west of China is a problem because the weather patterns there are already very complicated and it looks like they are getting more difficult. They also have the melting glaciers.

But maybe the north of China will benefit from more rain. There is a lot of uncertainty still.

3. Challenges: Natural resources are fundamental to the development of a national economy. The industrial structure and economic advantages of a country are determined to a considerable degree by its resources availability and combination. China is a country with a large population and at a relatively low level of development, and its economic development has long been constrained by the scarcity of per capita resources and it will continue to be so for a long time.85 The development history and trend of various countries has revealed the obvious positive correlations between per capita CO2 emissions, per capita commercial energy consumption and the economic development level.

In other words, with current level of technology development, to reach the development level of the industrialized countries, it is inevitable that per capita energy consumption and CO2 emissions will reach a fairly high level. In the development history of human beings, there is no precedent where a high per capita GDP is achieved with low per capita energy consumption.

With its ongoing economic development, China will inevitably be confronted with growing energy consumption and CO2 emissions. The issue of GHG mitigation will pose a challenge to China to create an innovative and sustainable development. a) Coal: China is one of the few countries whose energy mixes are dominated by coal. In 2005, 68.9% of China’s primary energy consumption was coal, while the world average was only 27.8%. Compared with oil and natural gas, coal’s carbon content per unit calorific value is 36% and 61% higher, respectively. China will face much more difficulties than other countries in decreasing its carbon intensity per unit of energy for mainly three reasons: its energy mix adjustment is constrained by the mix of energy resources to certain extent; its energy efficiency 85 National Development and Reform Commission People’s Republic of China, China’s National Climate Change Program, June 2007.

improvement is subject to the availability of advanced technologies and financial resources, and its coal-dominated energy resources and consumption structure will not change substantially for a long-term period in the future.

Although China is trying to develop alternative energy sources, it is still the world's biggest consumer and producer of coal. It is expected to surpass the US as the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the next decade. b) Dependency on energy technologies: One of the main reasons for China’s low energy efficiency and high GHG emission intensity is the backward technologies of energy production and utilization in China. On one hand, there are relatively large gaps between China and the developed countries in term of technologies of energy exploitation, supply and transformation, transmission and distribution, industrial production and other end-use energy; on the other hand, out-of-date processes and technologies still occupy a relatively high proportion of China’s key industries.

China’s energy efficiency is about 10% lower than that of the developed countries, and it’s per unit energy consumption of energy-intensive products is about 40% higher than the advanced international level. Science and technology are the ultimate resort for humankind to tackle climate change. As China is now undergoing large-scale infrastructure construction for energy, transportation and buildings, the features of intensive emissions associated with these technologies will exist for the next few decades if advanced and climate-friendly technologies could not be made timely available. This poses severe challenges to China in addressing climate change and mitigating GHG emissions.

The fear of emissions leakage draining international competitiveness and jobs can sap the political will needed to adopt emissions limits. This fear was a key factor in the U.S. Senate’s unanimous rejection of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. Although Congress is more supportive of climate legislation today, it is still less likely to act without at least some corresponding action by China and other major emitters. Meanwhile, leakage makes China’s economy more emissionsintensive, raising the cost of persuading China to adopt emissions limits. c) Relatively low level of economic development: China is currently at a relatively low level of economic development. In 2005, the per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of China was about US$ 1,714 (based on exchange rate of the same year, the same below), only about 1/4 of the world average level. As China’s emissions are still relatively low per capita, and as china is the workshop for developed nations, the rest of the world accepts that China’s own emissions will continue to grow for a time…. But the rest of the world would like to know exactly when China will stop growing. China as a rapidly developing nation to completely transform its energy structure and use clean energy would need a lot of money.

Moreover, too many challenges may be taken into consideration such as huge population.

China has the largest population in the world. In 2005, the population of China’s mainland was 1.31 billion. Due to the huge population, China’s per capita energy consumption is still at a low

level. In 2005, China’s per capita commercial energy consumption was about 1.7, only 2/3 of the world average, let alone the average level of the developed countries.

4. Chinese actions towards Climate Change: To follow the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities” of the UNFCCC, according to this principle, developed countries should take the lead in facing climate change rather than developing countries that will be more conservative about their economic growth rates.86 It is not only the important common understanding of the international community, but also the basic option of all the parties to the Convention to address climate change. As early as in 1994, the Government of China formulated and published its sustainable development strategy --- China’s Agenda 21 --- A White Paper on Population, Environment and Development in the 21st Century. Later in 1996, the Government of China, for the first time, adopted sustainable development as the key guideline and strategic goal for its national social and economic development. In 2003, the Government of China further formulated the Program of Action for Sustainable Development in China in the Early 21st Century. China will continue to actively tackle climate change issues in accordance with its national sustainable development strategy in the future87 5. Climate Change in India: a) Indian Political system: The prime minister of India is the head of the government, while the president is the formal head of the state and hold substantial reserve powers. Executive power is exercised by the government. Federal legislative power is vested in both the government and the two chambers of the parliament of India. The judiciary is independent from the legislative and the executive branches.

The current Indian president is Pratibha patil and the current prime minister is Dr.Manmohan Singh. b) Trend of Climate Change in India: Indians should be concerned about climate change since this phenomenon might have substantial adverse impacts on them. Not all possible consequences of climate change are yet fully understood, but the three main ‘categories’ of impacts are those on agriculture, sea level rise 86 JONATHAN

B. WIENER, Engaging China on Climate Change, 2009, www.rff.org/engagingchina, accessed on 27 October 2009 87 Jyoti k. Parikh and Kirit Parikh, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, CLIMATE CHANGE: INDIA’S PERCEPTIONS, POSITIONS, POLICIES AND POSSIBILITIES, OECD, 2002.

leading to submergence of coastal areas, as well as increased frequency of extreme events. Each of these poses serious threats.

Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s main energy resource is coal. With the threat of climate change, India is called upon to change its energy strategy based on coal, its most abundant resource, and to use other energy sources (e.g. oil, gas, renewable and nuclear energy) instead, which may turn out to be expensive. i.

Agriculture: It was observed that there was an impact of climate change on agricultural crop yields, GDP and welfare. Considering a range of equilibrium climate change scenarios which project a temperature rise of 2.5oC to 4.9oC for India, Parikh estimated that a) Without considering the carbon dioxide fertilization effects yield losses for rice and wheat vary between 32 and 40%, and 41 and 52%, respectively. Even with carbon fertilization effects, losses would be in the same direction but somewhat smaller. b) GDP would drop by between 1.8 to 3.4%.

ii.

Risk of sea level rise: Large-scale emigration from coastal zones is expected due to submergence of coast-lines after sea levels have risen. This will create large numbers of environmental refugees especially from low-lying delta regions in poor countries. If a one-meter sea level rise were to take place today, it would displace 7 million persons in India (ADB, 1995). In the future many more may be displaced.

iii.

Risk of extreme events: Increased occurrence of extreme events due to climate change will also affect the poor most. In the cyclone in Andhra Pradesh in India in 1996, more than 1,000 people died and there was huge property loss. Cyclones of similar intensity in advanced countries like the U.S. may not lead to any deaths and much hardship, due to stable and durable housing and other infrastructure and extended safety net available to the people in distress.

6. Challenges:

a) Costs of Changing Energy Strategy:

If India has to reduce its carbon emissions, it would mean a major reorientation of her energy strategy, especially if that warranted a shift from its current coal-based to an oil and gas based energy system. b) Lower GDP: CO2 emission reduction imposes costs in terms of lower GDP and higher poverty.

A 30% CO2 reduction over a period of 30 years using annual emissions reduction targets leads to a fall in GDP of 4% and raises the number of poor by 17.5% in the 30th year (that is, if 2000 were taken as the baseline, these changes would occur by 2030). Industry in India tends to act fast where it sees opportunities to gain revenue and drag its feet where there is no money to be made. At present, there are no regulations on greenhouse gas emissions in the country, although financial incentives to invest in emissions reduction do exist.88

7. Indian Steps towards Climate Change: Indian authorities have started taking small steps by outlining new regulations promoting energy efficiency of appliances and developing green building codes.

However, it seems larger and more comprehensive measures will have to wait until a post-Kyoto agreement takes shape.

Traditionally, Indian industry has been slow in adopting environmental standards in comparison to its speedy economic growth. But in contrast to industryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s generally poor environmental records, India is the world leader in Clean Development Mechanism projects.

III. The United Nation's convention in general and the Kyoto protocol in particular: ď&#x192;ź The United Nations framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC): It was initiated in 1990 by the United Nations. At the UN Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, 154 countries signed the UNFCCC. Today, 192 countries have ratified the convention, including the USA.The Convention on Climate Change sets an overall framework for intergovernmental efforts to tackle the challenges created by climate change. It acknowledges that the climate system is a shared resource whose stability can be affected by industrial and other emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

According to the objective paragraph, the goals of the Convention are to stabilize the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in such a way as to give ecosystems 88 Dr Albrecht Kaupp, Indo-German Energy Program, 2007.

the opportunity to adapt naturally. Food safety must not be compromised, and the potential to form sustainable social and economic development must not be endangered.

Governments under the convention bring together and share information on greenhouse gas emissions, national policies and best practices. They cooperate in preparing national strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to the expected effects of climate change, including bestowing financial and technological support to developing countries. 89 The Convention entered into force on 21 March 199490.

1. The Kyoto protocol: The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the UNFCCC. The major feature of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European community for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions .These amount to an average of five per cent against 1990 levels over the five-year period 2008-2012. 

The major distinction between the Protocol and the Convention is that while the Convention encouraged industrialized countries to stabilize GHG emissions, the Protocol commits them to do so.



Recognizing that developed countries are principally responsible for the current high levels of GHG emissions in the atmosphere as a result of more than 150 years of industrial activity, the Protocol places a heavier burden on developed nations under the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities.”

The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on 16 February 2005. 184 Parties of the Convention have ratified its Protocol to date. The detailed rules for the implementation of the Protocol were adopted at COP 7 in Marrakesh in 2001, and are called the “Marrakesh Accords'. a) The Kyoto mechanisms: Under the Treaty, countries must meet their targets primarily through national measures.

However, the Kyoto Protocol offers them an additional means of meeting their targets by way of three market-based mechanisms.

89 - Copenhagen Climate Change, What is the UNFCCC, http://www.copenhagenclimatecouncil.com/getinformed/climate-negotiations-updates/what-is-the-unfccc.html 90- UNFCCC, The United Nations Conventions on Climate Change, http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/items/2627.php

The Kyoto mechanisms are: 1. Emissions trading – known as “the carbon market" 2. Clean development mechanism (CDM) 3. Joint implementation (JI).

The Kyoto Protocol sets specific emissions reduction targets for each industrialized nation, but excludes developing countries. To meet their targets, most ratifying nations would have to combine several strategies: 1. Place restrictions on their biggest polluters 2. Manage transportation to slow or reduce emissions from automobiles 3. Make better use of renewable energy sources—such as solar power, wind power, and biodiesel—in place of fossil fuels.91

b) The road ahead: The Kyoto Protocol is generally seen as an important first step towards a truly global emission reduction regime that will stabilize GHG emissions, and provides the essential architecture for any future international agreement on climate change.

By the end of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012, a new international framework needs to have been negotiated and ratified that can deliver the stringent emission reductions the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has clearly indicated are needed92.

c) The Kyoto protocol's pros and cons: Advocates of the Kyoto Protocol argue that taking action now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions could slow or reverse global warming, and prevent or mitigate many of the most 91-Larry West, What is the Kyoto Protocol? , http://environment.about.com/od/kyotoprotocol/i/kyotoprotocol.htm 92 - UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol, http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php, accessed on September 20 2009.

severe problems associated with it. Many view the U.S. rejection of the treaty as irresponsible, and accuse President Bush of pandering to the oil and gas industries.

Because the United States accounts for so many of the world’s greenhouse gases and contributes so much to the problem of global warming, some experts have suggested that the Kyoto Protocol cannot succeed without U.S. participation Arguments against the Kyoto Protocol generally fall into three categories: it demands too much; it achieves too little; or it is unnecessary.

In rejecting the Kyoto Protocol, which 178 other nations had accepted, President Bush claimed that the treaty requirements would harm the U.S. economy, leading to economic losses of $400 billion and costing 4.9 million jobs. Bush also objected to the exemption for developing nations. The president’s decision brought heavy criticism from U.S. allies and environmental groups in the U.S. and around the world.

Some critics, including a few scientists, are skeptical of the underlying science associated with global warming and say there is no real evidence that Earth’s surface temperature is rising due to human activity. For example, Russia’s Academy of Sciences called the Russian government's decision to approve the Kyoto Protocol "purely political," and said that it had "no scientific justification."

Some opponents say the treaty doesn’t go far enough to reduce greenhouse gases, and many of those critics also question the effectiveness of practices such as planting forests to produce emissions trading credits that many nations are relying on to meet their targets. They argue that planting forests may increase carbon dioxide for the first 10 years owing to new forest growth patterns and the release of carbon dioxide from soil.

Others believe that if industrialized nations reduce their need for fossil fuels, the cost of coal, oil and gas will go down, making them more affordable for developing nations. That would simply shift the source of the emissions without reducing them.

Finally, some critics say the treaty focuses on greenhouse gases without addressing population growth and other issues that affect global warming, making the Kyoto Protocol an anti-industrial agenda rather than an effort to address global warming. One Russian economic policy advisor even compared the Kyoto Protocol to fascism.

There are other global issues that also need to be addressed such as rapid population growth in developing countries.93 Humankind has other important problems to address, which 93 Periodical : The Free Library , Swimming against the current , accessed on October 2 2009 http://209.85.129.132/search?q=cache:VqTQyvxC4NsJ:www.thefreelibrary.com/Swimming%2Bagainst%2Bthe %2Bcurrent:%2Bsome%2Bskeptics%2Bthink%2BKyoto%2Bis%2Ba%2Bscheme...a0138751709+kyoto+opponents&cd=12&hl=en&ct=clnk

requires economic growth, progress and developmentâ&#x20AC;Ś The danger of the greenhouse industrial gases for the Earthâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s climate has not been substantiated so far. Meanwhile, one billion people in the world are starving; 1.6 billion people live without electricity; 2.5 billion people consume biomass as an energy source Vyacheslav Nikonov, President of the Polity Foundation.94 d) What Is US history with the Kyoto Protocol?

Vice President Al Gore was a main participant in putting the Kyoto Protocol together in 1997. President Bill Clinton signed the agreement in 1997, but the US Senate refused to ratify it, citing potential damage to the US economy required by compliance. The Senate also balked at the agreement because it excluded certain developing countries, including India and China, from having to comply with new emissions standards. e) Why did President Bush Withdraw US Support?

George Bush made campaign promises in 2000 to regulate carbon dioxide as a pollutant.

However, in 2001, George Bush pulled the US out of the Kyoto accords as one of the first acts of his presidency. Bush dismissed Kyoto Protocol as too costly, describing it as "an unrealistic and ever-tightening straitjacket." Lately, the White House has even questioned the validity of the science behind global warming, and claims that millions of jobs will be lost if the US joins in this world pact. f) The Future of the Kyoto Protocol: The Kyoto Protocol became legally effective after obtaining support from countries representing 55% of worldwide greenhouse gas pollution. The agreement expires in 2012. It's likely that a new agreement will be proposed in 2012. However, if the US doesn't sign on, and instead chooses to pander to profits and business lobbyists, then the agreement will likely fall apart. China and other large nations would probably follow suit. g) Obama brings the US in from the cold: Obama made it clear that America would play its full part in renewing the Kyoto Protocol climate-change treaty.

His words, in effect, brought an end to eight years of willful climate obstructionism by the administration of George Bush, who withdrew the US from Kyoto in March 2001, thus doing incalculable damage to the efforts of the international community to construct a unified response to the threat.

94- Russia in Global Affairs, Kyoto Protocol: Pros and Cons, 01-12-2003, accessed on October 4 2009 http://209.85.129.132/search? q=cache:c2X90djuRQkJ:eng.globalaffairs.ru/books/548.html+kyoto+pros&cd=11&hl=en&ct=clnk

"Once I take office, you can be sure that the United States will once again engage vigorously in these negotiations, and help lead the world toward a new era of global co-operation on climate change," these were Obama's words being a president elect.

"We will establish strong annual targets that set us on a course to reduce emissions to their 1990 levels by 2020 and reduce them by an additional 80 percent by 2050," he also said. It signals that the US is at last coming in from the cold â&#x20AC;&#x201C; and that is the essential prerequisite for success at Copenhagen, which will try to map out a way for the world to hold global temperature rises to two degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level â&#x20AC;&#x201C; regarded as the maximum on earth and its human communities can safely sustain.

His words were instantly applauded as "fantastic" by California's Republican governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, a leading force for environmental changes in the face of White House obstinacy. "These were inspirational words from Obama," said Frank O'Donnell of Clean Air Watch. "This is an incredibly welcome statement about the need not to delay, and it will send a very positive message around the world, especially to the developing countries," said a British source involved with negotiations.95 2. The Copenhagen summit: a) Copenhagen a â&#x20AC;&#x153;window of opportunity": "Climate Conference in Copenhagen from 6 - 18 December 2009" The Copenhagen Climate Council is a global collaboration between international business and science founded in 2007 by the leading independent think tank in Scandinavia, Monday Morning, head-quartered in Copenhagen, Denmark. The councilors of the Copenhagen Climate Council have come together to create global awareness of the importance of the UN Climate Summit (COP15)* in Copenhagen, December 2009, and to ensure technical and public support and assistance to global decision makers when agreeing on a new climate treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol from 1997.96 The founding members of Copenhagen believe that a clear and effective global treaty backed by strong, deliberate policy that recognizes the need for common but differential application according to geographical and economic circumstances, can reduce emissions on the scale necessary to achieve climate stabilization and economic growth. 97

95 Leonard Doyle in Washington and Michael McCarthy, Obama brings US in from the cold , 20 November 2008, http://209.85.129.132/search?q=cache:MHAj7TjSBtwJ:www.independent.co.uk/environment/climatechange/obama-brings-us-in-from-the-cold1026303.html+kyoto+protocol+and+obama&cd=3&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=eg 96Wikipedia, Copenhagen Climate Council, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copenhagen_Climate_Council 97 Manifesto, Copenhagen climate council

Emissions trading, dedicated funds for low carbon innovation, means to protect forests, promotion of sustainable agriculture, support for adoption, and incentives to promote energy efficiency are all key points in solving the climate change problem.

Economies which developed during the first industrial revolution have a responsibility to lead on taking action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The prosperity of the developed world has been driven by high economic growth, burdening the atmosphere with around 200 giga tons of carbon. This is the founding element of the climate problem.

In 2012 the Kyoto Protocol to prevent climate changes and global warming runs out. To keep the process on the line there is an urgent need for a new climate protocol. At the conference in Copenhagen 2009 the parties of the UNFCCC meet for the last time on government level before the climate agreement need to be renewed. 98 Sidi El Moctar Cheigeur chairs the African Network of Environmental Journalists says the Copenhagen summit will be a test of the responsibility and engagement of world leaders, especially those in the northern hemisphere who he says will show whether they have the vision and commitment to meet historic responsibilities. 99 President Bill Clinton did not attend the Kyoto negotiations in 1997 and the US never signed the Kyoto Protocol. Todd Stern, US Special Envoy for Climate Change, said that President Obama would go to Copenhagen only if sufficient progress was being made in the negotiations. He added that "the Senate Bill, if passed, would result in a “seismic shift” in the US economy. It would commit the US to cutting its emissions by around 20 per cent by 2020 and 20 per cent each decade after that up to 2050. “That’s by every measure quite comparable to the EU.” “If we don’t deliver in Copenhagen, then I cannot see when again you can build up a similar pressure on all the governments of this world to deliver. So I think we should be very, very cautious not to miss the opportunity,” says Hildegard Danish Minister for Climate and Energy, adding that “it would be irresponsible not to use the momentum now”.100 b) A glance at history: The Copenhagen meeting will have a far broader reach and potential impact on the world than the Congress of Vienna, say, the 1814-1815 assembly which attempted to reorder Europe after the Napoleonic wars, or the Paris peace conference of 1919, which tried to construct a new 98Erantis, Copenhagen 2009, http://www.erantis.com/events/denmark/copenhagen/climate-conference2009/index.htm 99Scott Stearns , Developing World Prepares for Copenhagen Summit, 15 October 2009 http://209.85.129.132/search?q=cache:dzn2_NTaengJ:www.voanews.com/english/2009-10-15voa39.cfm+copenhagen+summit+article&cd=7&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=eg 100COP 15, Failure in Copenhagen is not an option, October 10 2009 http://en.cop15.dk/news/view+news? newsid=2257

global order after the First World War, or the 1945 meetings at Yalta and Potsdam which tried to do the same after the Second World War. For they were all dealing with national boundaries, politics and political structures, phenomena which of course are vital in human terms, but ephemeral and changeable. Copenhagen will be dealing with something fundamental to life on earth: the stability of the biosphere.101 c) Status of the Copenhagen Climate Change Negotiations: Key Topics under negotiation: i.

Shared Long-Term Vision to 2050: Many countries viewed this as the setting of a long-term target for avoiding global temperature increases, stabilizing atmospheric GHG concentrations, and/or setting global GHG reduction targets relative to a base year (typically 1990 or 2005). Some parties have not viewed this as a major element in the negotiations, and some have opposed any kind of quantified vision.

Other parties have viewed a quantified vision as a hook for pulling all parties into a common, global commitment to reduce GHG emissions.

ii.

Obligations to Mitigate GHG Emissions:

The Obama Administration has stated its policy to reduce U.S. GHG emissions to 14% below 2005 levels by 2020, and the Congress is working on legislation (e.g., S. 1733 and H.R. 2454) that may set a comparable emission cap. Some Obama Administration officials have suggested that the U.S. and EU proposals are comparable, in that both parties10 would reduce emissions approximately 1.4% annually through 2020.

China and many large developing countries continue to resist the idea that developing might take on quantitative and enforceable commitments. However, by mid-2009 some countries favored beginning to differentiate such as Uganda, speaking for the Least Developed Countries (LDCs), expressed the position that all countries will need to take actions, including the LDCs. iii.

Financial Assistance to Low-income Countries:

The United States and all other parties to the UNFCCC committed to promoting adaptation, cooperation to develop and deploy new technologies, and a host of additional but unquantified obligations. The wealthier countries (including the United States) also committed to provide financial and technical assistance to underpin developing countriesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; efforts to meet their obligations.

Although the U.S. delegation provided a proposal for a new financing mechanism in the October 2009 negotiations in Bangkok, it has proposed neither overall multilateral levels of 101 - The Independent, The Countdown to Copenhagen, January 9 2009 http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/un-climate-conference-the-countdown-to-copenhagen1242601.html

funding under a new agreement nor an amount that the United States might offer. Some Members of Congress and U.S. constituents have pressed for provisions in climate change legislation to provide for funding to assist adaptation in developing countries, and to support cooperation on clean technology and capacity building. iv.

Technology Development and Transfer:

Because achieving deep GHG reductions would require radical technological change from current patterns, parties generally agree to cooperate to advance and deploy new technologies. The United States and the EU agree that some public financing for technology is needed but that the private sector is better able to achieve the necessary advances and deployment.102 v.

Public versus Private Financing: Countries differ on the appropriate sources of funds. The G-77 and China argue that developed nationsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; governments should provide public funds as the main source of climate change financing for mitigation, adaptation, technology cooperation, and capacity building.

Public finances have been proposed to come from a variety of levies, including charges on maritime and aviation fuels, a percentage of GHG offsets internationally (such as exists now under the Kyoto Protocolâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Clean Development Mechanism), contribution of a share of national allowances to auction, etc Finally, the UN climate summit reached a weak outline of a global agreement in Copenhagen falling far short of what Britain and many poor countries were seeking and leaving months of tough negotiations to come. After eight draft texts and all-day talks between 115 world leaders, it was left to Barack Obama and Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, to broker a political agreement. The so-called Copenhagen accord "recognizes" the scientific case for keeping temperature rises to no more than 2C but does not contain commitments to emissions reductions to achieve that goal. American officials spun the deal as a "meaningful agreement", but even Obama said: "This progress is not enough. 103 United States of America is divided into two trendy parties, one of them is with taking actions towards elimination of global warming effects and believes that itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s time to take an action. Every senator knows the harmful consequences on his state and the importance of giving due care to solve such a dangerous problems. On the contrary, the other side believes that American consumer will be hit even harder in the coming years, while still being given no guarantee that other nations will agree to similar limits imposed by this legislation.

102- Jane A. Legget, Richard K. Latanzio, Status of the Copenhagen Climate Change Negotiations, Congressional Research service, R40910, November 5, 2009.

103-john vidal, Low targets and Goals dropped, Copenhagen ends in failure, 19 December 2009, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/18/copenhagen-deal , accessed on 19 march 2010.

Second topic: Foreign Direct Investment in Agriculture and facing hunger in Africa: I. Genetically Modified Crops and their effect on the balance of trade: 1. Definition of Genetically Modified crops: Genetically modified crops have had foreign genes (genes from other plants) inserted into their genetic codes. This process is being done through genetically modified organisms.

Genetically modified organisms (GMOs) can be defined as organisms in which the genetic material (DNA) has been altered in a way that does not occur naturally. The technology is often called “modern biotechnology” or “gene technology. 104 2. Why are GM foods produced?

GM foods are developed – and marketed – because there is some perceived advantage either to the producer or consumer of these foods. This is meant to translate into a product with a lower price, greater benefit. The initial objective for developing plants based on GM organisms was to improve crop protection. The GM crops currently on the market are mainly aimed at an increased level of crop protection through the introduction of resistance against plant diseases caused by insects or viruses.

3. Scientific advantages of GM crops: a) Pest resistance: Crop losses from insect pests can be staggering, resulting in devastating financial loss for farmers and starvation in developing countries.

Consumers do not wish to eat food that has been treated with pesticides because of potential health hazards, and run-off of agricultural wastes from excessive use of pesticides and fertilizers can poison the water supply and cause harm to the environment. Growing GM foods such corn can help eliminate the application of chemical pesticides and reduce the cost of bringing a crop to market. b) Disease resistance There are many viruses, fungi and bacteria that cause plant diseases. Plant biologists are working to create plants with genetically-engineered resistance to these diseases c) Drought tolerance: As the world population grows and more land is utilized for housing instead of food production, farmers will need to grow crops in locations previously unsuited for plant cultivation. Creating plants that can withstand long periods of drought or high salt content in soil and groundwater will help people to grow crops in formerly inhospitable places.

104-- Patria Tsai, University of Maryland Medical Center, http://www.umm.edu/ency/article/002432.htm

2009, accessed on 29.10.2009

d) Pharmaceuticals Medicines and vaccines: They are often costly to produce and sometimes require special storage conditions not readily available in third world countries. Researchers are working to develop edible vaccines in tomatoes and potatoes. These vaccines will be much easier to ship, store and administer than traditional inject able vaccines.

4. Criticism against GM crops: Environmental activists, religious organizations, public interest groups, professional associations and other scientists and government officials have all raised concerns about GM foods, and criticized agribusiness for pursuing profit without concern for potential hazards, and the government for failing to exercise adequate regulatory oversight. It seems that everyone has a strong opinion about GM foods. Even the Vatican has expressed his opinion. Most concerns about GM foods fall into three categories: environmental hazards, human health risks, and economic concerns105 a) Environmental hazards: i. Increased use of Herbicides: Scientists estimate that plants genetically engineered to be herbicide-resistant will greatly increase the amount of herbicide use. Farmers, knowing that their crops can tolerate the herbicides, will use them more liberally. ii. More Pesticides: GE crops often manufacture their own pesticides and may be classified as pesticides. This strategy will put more pesticides into our food and fields than ever before. iii. Ecology may be damaged: The influence of a genetically engineered organism on the food chain may damage the local ecology. The new organism may compete successfully with wild relative cause unforeseen changes in the environment. iv. Gene Pollution Cannot Be Cleaned Up: Once genetically engineered organisms, bacteria and viruses are released into the environment it is impossible to contain or recall them. Unlike chemical or nuclear contamination, negative effects are irreversible.106 Mother for Natural Law, What are the dangers? 2001, http://WWW. SafeFood.org/issue/dangers.html, accessed on 29.10.2009.

105-

106- World

Health Organization, 20 Questions on genetically modified crops,http://www.who.int/foodsafety/publications/biotech/20questions/en, accessed on 29.10.2009

b) Human Health Risk: i.

No Long-Term Safety Testing:

Genetic engineering uses material from organisms that have never been part of the human food supply to change the fundamental nature of the food we eat. ii.

Toxins: Genetic engineering can cause unexpected mutations in an organism, which can create new and higher levels of toxins in foods. iii.

Decreased Nutritional Value: Transgenic foods may mislead consumers with counterfeit freshness. A luscious-looking, bright red genetically engineered tomato could be several weeks old and of little nutritional worth. iv.

Antibiotic Resistant Bacteria: Genetic engineers use antibiotic-resistance genes to mark genetically engineered cells.

This means that genetically engineered crops contain genes which confer resistance to antibiotics. These genes may be picked up by bacteria which may infect us. v. Side Effects can kill: 37 people died, 1500 were partially paralyzed, and 5000 more were temporarily disabled by a syndrome that was finally linked to tryptophan made by genetically-engineered bacteria.

Itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s more difficult to evaluate the safety of crop-derived foods than individual chemical, drug, or food additives. Crop foods are more complex and their composition varies according to differences in growth and agronomic conditions.

FDA scientists warned that GM crops may concentrate toxins, such as heavy metals and herbicides, from the environment. There is evidence of heavy metals in GM crops.107 Advocates argue that GM foods are potentially better for the environment. By using genetically engineered crops that are resistant to attack by pests or disease, farmers and primary producers do not have to apply large amounts of pesticides and chemicals to the surrounding environment. Developing crops that are resistant to particular herbicides and pesticides may reduce the amount of pesticides used in food production and the residual pesticide levels in the environment.108 1074-The Health Risks of GM foods: Summary and Debate, Seeds of Deception, http://www.seedsofdeception.com/Public/GeneticRoulette/HealthRisksofGMFoodsSummaryDebate/index.cfm Accessed on 30.10.2009108- Better Health Channel, Genetically modified foods, November 2007, http://www.betterhealth.vic.gov.au/bhcv2/bhcarticles.nsf/pages/Genetically_modified_foods accessed on 30.10.2009.

c) Economic Concerns: Given the costs of bringing in a genetically modified (GM) food to the market, any biotechnology company will logically want to make a good profit on their time, efforts and money. However, farmers also want a profitable return and consumers want to purchase foods at a reasonable cost. No matter what level of production, the economical impact of GM foods plays a role in all aspects of bringing a food to the market.

There are economic concerns around the use of patents. Consumer groups worry that by placing a patent on a new kind of GM plant, the price of the seeds can be raised to such an extent that small-scale farm operations and farmers in developing countries will not be able to afford these GM varieties of crops.

In this way, the divide between wealthy and poor nations will be increased quite significantly. Some people have the hope that costs can be lowered when companies are seeking to sell GM seeds to developing and third world countries.109 5. The effect of Genetically Modified crops on the African Economy: In 2002, Zimbabwe was the first country to raise the alarm in June when it refused 10,000 tones of GM maize from the USA. Harare's rejection of GM maize â&#x20AC;&#x201C; both imported and in the form of food aid was based on the objection that if it arrived in the form of whole kernels, its seed could spread GM strains, thereby contaminating the countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s indigenous crop.

The government has subsequently revised its position and agreed to accept GM maize, subject to it being milled beforehand or immediately upon arrival in the country. Mozambique too has expressed concerns, warning the World Food Program (WFP) that GM maize should be securely packaged to avoid spillage in transit. Malawi, Lesotho and Swaziland government officials have subsequently confirmed that they, too, are willing to accept GM maize from the USA, but also only in milled form.

In August, the Zambian government, which had previously been silent on the issue, stated it would not import GM foods at all saying they would rather that people starve than consume grain that is not considered to be safe for human consumption. Zambia stands alone now in its outright rejection of GM maize, despite the prospect of people dying from hunger in a country in which 2.9 million people are at risk. All these countries have cited safety reasons human health and environmental damage as well as trade-related issues, as justification for their rejection of GM maize.110 African countries are experiencing a lack of food and a lack of distribution. Without higher yields, better distribution is useless. But without better distribution, higher yields are

109 110- Genetically Modified Foods, Economic impact of GM foods, http://www.geneticallymodifiedfoods.co.uk/economic-impact-gm-foods.html

useless111. Therefore, genetically modified crops are an important part of the revival of the economies in African countries. Genetically modified crops are a growing industry in the world.

Many people believe GM crops can save third world countries suffering from hunger.

Specifically, countries on the African continent are most appropriate for success.

There are great costs associated with bringing GM crops to Africa. A general cost would be the time and money associated with the process. The actual amount of time and money that are needed to develop GM programs are much higher than originally expected. In the early nineties it was expected to take only 3-5 years to develop a GM crop where now scientists say it would take 10-15 years and also the programs cost millions of dollars to fund.

Associated with the time and money aspect is the fact that “developing countries simply don’t have the capacity and infrastructure to establish and follow adequate bio‐safety test procedures.” This would also cost more money, which most developing countries do not have, or it would take money away from other relief projects. With the increased interest in biotechnologies, there is also the chance that GM crops could fail, and if African countries invest solely in the success of these GM crops they would be worse off than before. There also exists the danger of contaminating domestic food crops, which could lead to many unknown consequences.

One of these consequences could be genetic erosion due to a loss of biodiversity. Many of the predicted costs or problems with Africa relying heavily on GM crops could ultimately lead to an increased dependence on foreign aid and involvement. This presents a problem in itself as the aims of this aid should ultimately be sustainability and not stagnant survival or prolonged dependence on aid.

Genetically modified crops are certainly part of the solution to a sustainable economy in Africa. But simply implementing a system reliant upon genetically modified foods is foolish. If Africa becomes reliant on GM crops, more problems are apt to arise. By helping to develop a working GM program in Africa, the producers and consumers will both benefit and the amount of food needed to support Africa can be produced. It is not satisfactory to simply give genetically modified crops to African countries. The goal is to implement the infrastructure needed to obtain a self‐sustaining African economy. Therefore, the producers and the consumers of genetically modified crops need to work together to establish an industry in Africa.

6. The effect of genetically modified crops in Africa on the American economy: Over the last decade, there has been a growing U.S. trade deficit in fresh and processed fruits and vegetables. Although U.S. fruit and vegetable exports totaled nearly $9 billion in 2007, U.S. imports of fruits and vegetables were more than $16 billion, resulting in a gap between

111- Jenny Clover, Researcher, African Security analysis program, GENETICALLY MODIFIED FOODS IN THE AFRICAN CONTEXT: BEHIND THE SMOKESCREEN OF THE CURRENT DEBATE, 19 October 2002.

imports and exports of more than $7 billion. This trade deficit has widened over time despite the fact that U.S. fruit and vegetable exports have continued to rise each year because growth in imports has greatly outpaced export growth.

As a result, the United States has gone from being a net exporter of fresh and processed fruits and vegetables in the in the early 1970s to being a net importer of fruits and vegetables today112. Therefore creating a new competitor by their own hands in the field of genetically modified crops may harm the American competitiveness in foreign markets.

II. Foreign Direct Investment in Africa:

1. History: 113 Foreign Direct Investment flows to Africa plunged sharply in the first quarter of this year after reaching record levels of 88bn last year, according to the United Nations Conference 112-Renee Johnson, The U.S. Trade Situation for Fruit and Vegetable Product, CRS report for congress, Order code RL 34468, April 30 2008.

11347-Charlotte Mathews, Foreign Investment in Africa Down sharply, Business Day, September 18 2009, http://allafrica.com/stories/200909180195.html, accessed on 0ctober 12 2009,

on Trade and Development's (United’s) annual World Investment Report, The report showed foreign direct investment into SA last year was 9bn, almost double 2007's 5,7bn, but it dropped 80% in the first quarter of this year to 1,2bn compared with 5,3bn in the first quarter of last year.

The economic stirring of the African continent began in the early 1990's through a series of serious structural reforms and improvements in economic management. Important changes were brought in through legislation to develop the private sector by offers of incentives. It is not that risks of doing business in Africa, such as sudden regime changes, violence and logistical nightmares, has disappeared. They remain, but lure of high returns compensate for the risks114 2. Chinese Investment in Africa Since late 1980's economic and strategic factors prompted Beijing to take an active interest in Africa. It is a potential market for Chinese exporters and a source for new energy and raw material supplies. The Chinese government actively promoted investment in key sectors, namely,  Industrial processing including electronics, machinery and garment 

Agriculture



Energy and minerals



Infrastructure and real estate development

It provided confessional aid, debt relief and other economic support. Also used military aid and promoted softer ties in education, science, culture and health. Involvement with various projects from real estate’s to improving poor infrastructure helped Chinese to secure oil exploration rights which also helped Chinese FDI in Africa. Trade increased from USD 11 billion in 2000 to USD 40 billion in 2005. And estimates suggest that it will top USD 100 billion by 2010.

3. Indian Investment in Africa: Unlike the Chinese push driven by its government, the Indian investment in Africa is led by the private sector. Africa is the new frontier for Indian companies with big-ticket investments and acquisitions. Also it holds promise for Indian FMCG companies. It has a middle class larger than India, estimated between 350 and 500 million and a rising per capita income. The presence of a large Indian Diaspora also helps.

There are about 42 odd top level Indian companies that have notable presence in Africa, For example, Tata Group, Mahindras, Ashok Leyland, Essar, NIIT, Marico, etc with a range of products from automobile, telecommunication, IT training to cosmetics. Indian pharmaceutical companies like Cipla, Aurobindo and Matrix have already made their mark in Africa by marketing affordable and good quality drugs which have found wide acceptance.

11448- Gautam Banerjee, Investment in Africa China and India's new economic, October 19 2009, http://africanaffairs.suite101.com/article.cfm/investment_in_africa, accessed on October 12 2009,

Indian oil companies in Africa, like ONGC Mittal Energy Ltd. also pursue acquisition oil and gas assets. Africa has proven oil reserves of about 16 billion metric tons and gas reserves of about 500 trillion cubic feet. India's domestic reserves are insignificant and it makes sense for them to establish their presence in Africa 4. U.S. Investment in Africa: The United States conducts a small share of its total trade with sub-Saharan Africa115 In 2007 the United States exported $13.9 billion to sub-Saharan Africa, or .3% of total U.S. global exports of $1,046 billion. The United States imported $66.9 billion from the region, or 3.4% of its total imports of $1,943 billion. Total trade (exports plus imports) between the United States and sub-Saharan Africa more than quadrupled between 1990 and 2007, from $17 billion to $81 billion.

However, U.S. trade with sub-Saharan Africa as a share of total U.S. trade did not increase as dramatically from 1990 to 2007, from 1.9% in 1990 to 2.7% in 2007. Although U.S. trade with sub-Saharan Africa is small compared with major trading partners, it is comparable to U.S. trade with several other developing regions. For example in 2007, the United States traded $87.1 billion (exports plus imports). With the Andean Pact countries (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela), $81 billion with the countries of sub-Saharan Africa, $70.7 billion with the countries of South Asia (Bangladesh, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, India, Laos, Macau, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam), $63.1 billion with the Mercosur countries (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay), and $41.2 billion.

Most U.S. trade with sub-Saharan Africa is with a small number of countries. Eighty-one percent of U.S. imports from the region were from three SSA countries in 2007: Nigeria (49%), Angola (18%), and South Africa (14%). Exports were similarly concentrated, with 66% of U.S. exports to three countries: South Africa (38%), 116Nigeria (19%), and Angola (9%). The remaining countries each accounted for less than 6% of U.S. exports to the region. U.S. Exports to Sub- Sub-Saharan Africa, 2007 Saharan Africa, 2007 Nigeria 19.4%, Nigeria 48.6%, DR Congo 4.6%, Gabon 3.4%, Chad 3.4%, South Africa 37.6%, Kenya 4.2%, All Other 12.2%, Gabon 3.2%, All Other 23.4%, Angola 14.3%, South Africa 13.7%, Angola 9.1%, Ghana 2.9%.117.

Despite widespread recognition that agriculture is critical to future economic growth and poverty reduction in Africa, total U.S. agricultural development assistance for Africa has declined an estimated 5% in real terms since 2000. Funding has declined even as USAID, the lead development agency, has focused more of its available development assistance funds in 115- CRS report U.S. Trade and Investment Relationship with Sub-Saharan Africa: The African Growth and Opportunity Act and Beyond.

116 CRS report U.S. Trade and Investment Relationship with Sub-Saharan Africa: The African Growth and Opportunity Act and Beyond 117 Investing in Africaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Future U.S. Agricultural Development Assistance for Sub-Saharan Africa

Africa on agriculture and achieved an estimated real increase of 9% from 2000 to 2004 in its total funding for agricultural development. USAIDâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s gains are offset by absolute reductions in funding for African agriculture from the other agencies and international organizations through which the United States provides such funding.

III.Bioagriculture Industry in the USA: 1. What is Bioagriculture?

It is an area of biotechnology that focuses on soil, crops and livestock as a means to solve problems. That can range from improving farming efficiency to growing crops that contain proteins and chemicals useful to industry.118 2. Crop Biotechnology: Farmers and plant breeders have relied for centuries on crossbreeding, hybridization and other genetic modification techniques to improve the yield and quality of food and fiber crops and to provide crops with built-in protection against insect pests, disease-causing organisms and harsh environmental conditions.

Stone Age farmers selected plants with the best characteristics and saved their seeds for the next year's crops. By selectively sowing seeds from plants with preferred characteristics, the earliest agriculturists performed genetic modification to convert wild plants into domesticated crops long before the science of genetics was understood.

As people's knowledge of plant genetics improved, they purposefully crossbred plants with desirable traits (or lacking undesirable characteristics) to produce offspring that combine the best traits of both parents. In today's world, virtually every crop plant grown commercially for food or fiber is a product of crossbreeding, hybridization or both.

Unfortunately, these processes are often costly, time consuming, inefficient and subject to significant practical limitations. For example, producing corn with higher yields or natural resistance to certain insects takes dozens of generations of traditional crossbreeding, if it is possible at all.

The tools of biotechnology allow plant breed breeders to select single genes that produce desired traits and move them from one plant to another. The process is far more precise and selective than traditional breeding in which thousands of genes of unknown function are moved into our crops. Biotechnology also removes the technical obstacles to moving genetic traits between plants and other organisms.

3. Increasing Yields:

118-Gregory Phillips, Event to focus on future of region's bioagriculture, October 14 2009, http://www.honighaeuschen.de/uploads/media/Honigh%C3%A4uschen-Archiv4326.pdf, accessed on October 20 2009.

In addition to increasing crop productivity by using built-in protection against diseases, pests, environmental stresses and weeds to minimize losses, scientists use biotechnology to improve crop yields directly. Researchers at Japan's National Institute of Agro biological Resources added maize photosynthesis genes to rice to increase its efficiency at converting sunlight to plant starch and increased yields by 30 percent. Other scientists are altering plant metabolism by blocking gene action in order to shunt nutrients to certain plant parts. Yields increase as starch accumulates in potato tubers and not leaves, or as oil-seed crops, such as canola, allocate most fatty acids to the seeds.

4. Crop Biotechnology in developing countries: Today, 70 percent of the people on the planet grow what they eat, and, despite the remarkable successes of the Green Revolution in the 1960s, millions of them suffer from hunger and malnutrition. Continuing population growth, urbanization, poverty, inadequate food distribution systems and high food costs impede universal access to the higher yields provided by technological advances in agriculture. In addition, the crops genetically improved by plant breeders who enabled the Green Revolution were large-volume commodity crops, not crops grown solely by small-scale subsistence farmers.

For many farmers in developing countries, especially those in sub-Saharan Africa, the Green Revolution never materialized because its agricultural practices required upfront investments-irrigation systems, machinery, fuel, chemical fertilizers and pesticides-beyond the financial reach of small-scale farmers.

Now, revolution is knowledge intensive, not capital intensive, because its technological advances are incorporated into the crop seed.

While technology transfer has been and, no doubt, will continue to be an essential mechanism for sharing the benefits of crop biotechnology, many developing countries are taking the next step: investing resources to build their own capacity for biotechnology research, development and commercialization.

The leaders in these countries recognize the potential of crop biotechnology to provide agricultural self-sufficiency, preserve their natural resources, lower food prices for consumers and provide income to their small farmers. Even more important, they understand that biotechnology has the potential to improve existing exports and create new ones, leading to a more diversified economy and increased independence.

But they also know that many of their agricultural problems are unique and can best be solved by local scientists who are familiar with the intricacies of the problems, local traditions, and applicability-or lack of it-of technologies that were developed to solve agricultural problems in industrialized countries. To move their countries forward, they are investing human and financial resources in developing local strength in crop biotechnology. For example: ď&#x201A;ˇ Pakistan's Ministry of Science and Technology prepared a biotechnology action plan and funded a three-year program to promote biotechnology research and development. ď&#x201A;ˇ

Uganda's National Council of Science and Technology established its first commercial agricultural biotechnology lab to produce disease-free coffee and banana plantlets.



Egypt's government, a longtime supporter of agricultural biotechnology, released a report encouraging farmers to plant genetically modified crops to benefit from reduced pesticide applications, lower production costs, higher yields and increased income.119

In the US, agricultural biotechnologies are increasing crop yields significantly while reducing reliance on chemical herbicides and pesticides. For example, the addition of vitamin A to rice has the potential to save the lives of millions of children in the developing world each year. Similar advances in bio agriculture will help feed a rapidly growing world population with healthier foods.

Although the US leads in biotechnology research, there are excellent scientific groups in the developing world, including Cuba and Brazil in Latin America, as well as China, Korea and India in Asia120 Most recent numbers show that, despite the global crisis, total FDI flows to Africa have gone up by 27% to a record $88 billion in 2008 taking up the total FDI stock to $511 billion. The surge has pushed up Africa’s share of global FDI from 3.5% in 2007 to 5.2% in 2008.

Indeed most of the increase in FDI in 2008 was contributed by the growth in cross-border mergers and acquisitions which more than doubled from $8 billion in 2007 to $21 billion in 2008121 Every decision by a multinational not to invest in South Africa, or even to delay doing so, is a disaster. FDI is important as South Africa badly needs reliable inflows of capital to help create economic growth and jobs.122 IV. Trade VS aid….?????

1. U.S.-Southern African Customs Union Free Trade Agreement:

119 - Biotechnology Industry Organization, Agriculture Production Application, http://www.bio.org/speeches/pubs/er/agriculture.asp, accessed on October 14 2009.

120 - Sibongile Pefile, BIOTECHNOLOGY TRENDS ANALYSIS, SOUTH AFRICAN BIOTECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT INITIATIVE, COFISA, May 2009.

121 -P Raghavan, Africa's good, the Financial Express, October 2 2009, http://www.financialexpress.com/printer/news/523876/, accessed on October 21 2009

122 -Chevon Erasmus, Africa needs more FDI for economic recovery, October 19 2009, http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2009-10/19/content_18728468.htm, accessed on October 30 2009.

On November 4, 2002, United States Trade Representative (USTR) Robert B. Zoellick notified Congress of the Administrationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s intention to launch negotiations for a free trade agreement (FTA) with the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), comprised of Botswana, Namibia, Lesotho, South Africa, and Swaziland. The U.S.-SACU initiative continues in the context of several concluded FTA negotiations: the President has signed the implementing legislation for FTAs with Chile, Singapore, Australia, and Morocco; and negotiators have reached agreement in the FTA with the Dominican Republic and five Central American nations, but Congress has yet to ratify the FTA. The first round of negotiations for the SACU FTA began on June 3, 2003, in Johannesburg, South Africa, and there have been five more negotiating rounds, in addition to a meeting in Paris in July 2004 between representatives from the SACU countries and the United States. The negotiations were scheduled to conclude by December 2004, but talks have stalled.

U.S. administration officials and SACU country trade ministers have agreed to a mechanism where deputy trade ministers will guide the negotiations, and to impose no deadline for concluding the negotiations. Renewal of trade promotion authority (TPA) by Congress in 2005 may affect prospects for a completed agreement.

Several possible rationales exist for the negotiation of an FTA with SACU. One impetus derives from Sec. 116 of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) (Title I, P.L. 106200), in which Congress declared its sense that FTAs should be negotiated with sub-Saharan African countries to serve as a catalyst for trade and for U.S. private sector investment in the region. Such trade and investment could fuel economic growth in Southern Africa, by creating new jobs and wealth. SACU member countries have achieved the most robust export growth under AGOA, and an FTA may be seen as a way of expanding their access to the U.S. market. An FTA may also encourage the continued economic liberalization of the SACU members, and it could move SACU beyond one way preferential access to full trade partnership with the United States.

A potential U.S.-SACU FTA is of interest to Congress because: (1) Congress will need to consider ratifying any agreement signed by the parties; (2) Provisions of an FTA may adversely affect U.S. business, especially in importcompeting industries, and may affect employment in those industries; and (3) AN FTA may bolster the effectiveness of AGOA and bolster its implementation.

On January 9, 2003, a bipartisan group of 41 Representatives wrote to Ambassador Zoellick to support the beginning of FTA negotiations with SACU. A U.S. - SACU FTA has also received interest from the U.S. business community. The U.S.-South African Business Council, an affiliate of the National Foreign Trade Council, announced the creation of an FTA advocacy coalition in December 2002.

The Corporate Council on Africa, a U.S. organization dedicated to enhancing trade and investment ties with Africa, also supports the negotiations. For these business groups, a primary benefit of an FTA with SACU would be to counteract the free trade agreement between the European Union and South Africa, which has given a price advantage to European firms. Some U.S. businesses have reportedly expressed skepticism about an FTA with SACU, citing concerns

over corruption and inadequate transparency in government procurement, particularly in South Africa.

On December 16, 2002, the interagency Trade Policy Staff Committee, which is chaired by the USTR, held a hearing to receive public comment on negotiating positions for the proposed agreement. Several groups representing retailers, food distributors, and metal importers supported the reduction of U.S. tariffs on SACU goods that an FTA would bring, other representing service industries and recycled clothing favored negotiations to remove tariff and non-tariff barriers in the SACU market. Yet other groups opposed the additional opening of U.S. markets to SACU goods or sought exemptions for their products. They included the growers and processors of California peaches and apricots, the American Sugar Alliance, rubber footwear manufacturers, and producers of silicon metal and manganese aluminum bricks.

Some U.S. civil society organizations have expressed concern that a SACU FTA could have negative consequences for poor Southern Africans, citing potential adjustment costs for import-competing farmers, poor enforcement of labor rights, privatization of utilities, and increased restrictions on importing generic drugs to treat HIV/AIDS.123 2. Background: The South African Customs Union consists of Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, and Swaziland: five contiguous states with a population of 51.9 million people encompassing 1.7 million square miles on the southern tip of the African continent. Although this figure represents less than 1% of the population of sub-Saharan Africa, SACU accounts for onehalf of the subcontinentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s gross domestic product (GDP). Wide differences exist among the economies of SACU. While South Africa has developed a significant manufacturing and industrial capacity, the other countries remain dependent on agriculture and mineral extraction.

The grouping is dominated by South Africa, which accounts for 87% of the population, and 93% of the GDP of the customs area. SACU member states had combined real GDP of $201 billion in 2003.124 SACU is the United States second largest trading partner in Africa behind Nigeria whose exports are almost exclusively petroleum products. In 2003, SACU was the 32nd largest trading partner of the United States with two-way trade equivalent to $7.3 billion. Merchandise imports from SACU totaled $5.6 billion in 2003, a 17.3% increase from 2002 and a 126% increase from 1996. They were composed of minerals such as platinum, diamonds, and titanium, textiles and apparel, vehicles, and automotive parts. U.S. exports have been relatively steady since 1996; however, the 2003 total of $2.8 billion represented an 8.6% increase from 2002. Major U.S. exports to the region include aircraft, vehicles, computers, and construction and agricultural equipment. The 2003 merchandise trade deficit widened to $2.8 billion from $2.2 billion in 2002.

The United States ran a services trade surplus with South Africa (the only member of SACU for which service data are available) with exports of $1.19 billion and imports of $977 123 Danielle Langton, United States-Southern African CustomsUnion (SACU) Free Trade Agreement Negotiations: Background and Potential Issues, Updated January 3, 2005 http://www.calchamber.com/international/trade/pages/africa.aspx 124 The World Bank, World Development Indicators. In constant 1995 U.S. dollars

million in 2003. Services trade between the United States and South Africa has increased dramatically for both countries, with U.S. exports increasing 154% since 1992, and service imports from South Africa increasing by 383% during the same period. The stock of U.S. foreign direct investment in South Africa totaled $3.9 billion in 2003 and was centered on manufacturing, chemicals and services. The stock of South African investment in the U.S. stood at $376 million in 2003.125 FTA negotiations with SACU may result in the first U.S. trade agreement with an existing customs union. SACU is the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s oldest customs union; it originated as a customs agreement between the territories of South Africa in 1889. The arrangement was formalized through the Customs Agreement of 1910 and was renegotiated in 1969. In 1994, the member states agreed to renegotiate the treaty in light of the political and economic changes implicit from the end of the apartheid regime. The renegotiated agreement was signed on October 21, 2002 in Gaborone, Botswana, and it is now being implemented. a) The 2002 Agreement: The 2002 Agreement provides for greater institutional equality of the member states. Its three key policy provisions are: the free movement of goods within SACU; a common external tariff; and a common revenue pool. It also provides more institutional clout to Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland (BLNS) in decision-making by creating a policymaking Council of Ministers.

The agreement enhances the existing Customs Union Commission, and it creates a permanent Secretariat to be based in Windhoek, Namibia. The Agreement also renegotiated the terms for disbursement of the common revenue pool, which accounts for a large portion of government revenue in the BLNS countries. There is concern that certain countries may receive less revenue as a result of the renegotiated agreement, and are improving their tax collection to make up the lost revenue. Recent estimates indicate SACU payments accounted for 62% of government revenue in Lesotho, 53% in Swaziland, 33% in Namibia and 16% in Botswana in 2000.126 b) SACU Tariff Structure: The 2002 Agreement expands BLNS policy influence by the creation of a Tariff Board to recommend changes on customs levels and policy, using the current SACU tariff schedule as a starting point. A 2003 WTO Trade Policy Review of SACU member states examined the tariff structure and trade posture of the customs union. It noted that the South African tariff structure, which was still the basis of the SACU tariff, was relatively complex, consisting of specific, mixed compound and formula duties.

However, the South African government has embarked on a tariff rationalization process to simplify the tariff schedule, to convert tariff lines to ad valorem rates, and to remove tariffs on items not produced in the SACU. According to the USTR, the complexity of the tariff regime has made it necessary for some U.S. firms to employ facilitators to export to South Africa. The WTO found applied MFN tariffs averaged 11.8% in manufacturing, 5.5% in agriculture, and 0.7% in 125 Survey of Current Business, October 2004. Services figures are calculated from current account. data and thus are not directly comparable to goods data above 126 Africa South of the Sahara, 2003 Edition (London: Europe Publications, 2002), pp. 83, 532, 704, 1020.

mining and quarrying. These average tariffs represent a reduction from the previous WTO review in 1998, when MFN tariffs averaged 16%, 5.6%, and 1.4%, respectively. However, tariffs are often bound much higher, with some bindings as high as 400%.127 c) Progress of the Negotiations: The negotiations have not progressed at the expected pace, and are currently in a deadlock. There are several possible reasons for this deadlock. First, the United States and SACU may be focused on different negotiating interests. Per their mandate to pursue comprehensive FTAs, U.S. negotiators have attempted to proceed with negotiations on intellectual property rights, government procurement, investment, and services. However, SACU officials have reportedly argued for these issues to be excluded from the negotiations. They have been more focused on locking in AGOA benefits and achieving deeper market access. Now that Congress has extended the AGOA benefits to 2015 through the AGOA Acceleration Act of 2004 (P.L. 108274), there may be less incentive for SACU countries to complete an FTA with the United States.

Also, the United States and SACU have different views on the inclusion of certain industrial sectors in the negotiations. The United States prefers what is called a negative list, where all industries are negotiable unless specifically excluded. Meanwhile, SACU prefers a positive list, where the industries to be included in the negotiations are specified in advance, and additional industries may be included in the agreement over time. Finally, the United States and SACU have differed on issues concerning labor rights and environmental regulations.

The Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) program of South Africa may be another significant hurdle to the negotiations. The BEE program involves criteria for companies to increase opportunities for non-white business partners through equity ownership and executive board positions The BEE program may constitute a trade barrier; U.S. businesses have indicated that they may have difficulty meeting the BEE criteria, and alternate ways of addressing BEE goals have been proposed by U.S. negotiators.

USTR Robert Zoellick has stated that the United States recognizes that SACU is still an emerging entity. It has not developed coordinated policies on many of the issues that would be included in an FTA, which may add to the challenges of negotiating an FTA. Despite these challenges, there is reportedly a renewed political will among SACU countries for the FTA. The United States may seek to build on this new political will and address the negotiating difficulties, including contentious issues, through further trade capacity building support.128 d) Foreign aid and performance programs: The U.S. uses preference programs to assist other countries, usually in the developing world, through enhanced access to the U.S. market. One of the oldest preference programs is the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), which was initiated in 1976 and which offers duty127 World Trade Organization, “Trade Policy Review: Southern African Customs Union, Report by the Secretariat,” (WT/TPR/S/114), March 24, 2003, pp. ix-xi.

U.S. Trade Representative, 2002 Foreign Trade Barriers, p. 381.

128 “Slow Pace of SACU FTA Negotiations Raises Doubts Among Supporters," Inside U.S. Trade, May 7, 2004.

“U.S.-SACU Free Trade Negotiations Put on Hold; New Mechanism Being Created,” International Trade Reporter, December 16, 2004.

“Administration, Business Pressure SACU for Comprehensive FTA,” Inside U.S. Trade, December 10, 2004.

free treatment for 4800 products from 131 designated countries and territories throughout the world. Another highly successful program is the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which was enacted in 2000 and also allows duty-free entry of goods from 40 countries in SubSaharan Africa. Other U.S. preference programs include the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI) Program and the Andean Trade Preference Act (ATPA) program. e) Generalized System of Preferences (GSP): Under the U.S. Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) program, the United States does not collect tariffs on imports from certain developing countries of selected products. It is a special trade preference program indeed: it works for everyone.  By eliminating U.S. tariffs on imports from certain developing countries, the program encourages the development of job-creating industries in countries plagued by poverty and a paucity of good employment opportunities. 

Lower-cost imported raw materials, components, and machinery keep U.S. manufacturers competitive in a tough global economy, where they face competition not only in the U.S. market from imported finished products, but also in international markets to which they export.



Lower-cost consumer goods help American families make ends meet.



GSP’s long list of eligibility criteria gives the United States a tool to encourage beneficiary countries to improve labor practices, protect intellectual property rights, treat U.S. investors fairly, steer clear of child labor, and open their markets to U.S. goods and services.

Consequently, GSP has long enjoyed support from American trading partners, companies, unions, and non-governmental organizations. It enjoys bipartisan support every time Congress renews it.129 f) African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA): The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) was signed into law by President Clinton in May 2000, to expand U.S. trade and investment with Sub-Saharan Africa, to stimulate economic growth, to promote a high-level dialogue on trade and investment-related issues, to encourage economic integration, and to facilitate sub-Saharan Africa's integration into the global economy. As of April 2009, 40 sub-Saharan African countries were eligible for AGOA benefits.

At the center of AGOA are substantial trade preferences that, coupled with those under the Generalized System of Preference (GSP) allow all marketable goods produced in AGOAeligible countries to enter the U.S. market duty-free. The U.S. Government provides assistance -most notably through four regional trade hubs -- to African governments and businesses that are seeking to make the most of AGOA and to diversify their exports to the United States.

The U.S. Congress requires the President to determine annually whether sub-Saharan African countries are eligible for AGOA benefits based on progress in meeting certain criteria, including progress toward the establishment of a market-based economy, rule of law, economic 129- Office of the United States Trade Representatives, Preference Programs, Last updated 24 July 2009, http://www.ustr.gov/trade-topics/trade-development/preference-programs

policies to reduce poverty, protection of internationally recognized worker rights, and efforts to combat corruption. Since its inception, AGOA has helped to increase U.S. two-way trade with sub-Saharan Africa.130 3. US aid to Africa: The U.S. Government provides assistance to 47 countries in Africa, and USAID operates 23 bilateral missions on the continent. Three regional missions support activities in countries with a limited USAID presence and manage programs that strengthen institutional capacity to contribute to stable and secure development in Africa. U.S. foreign assistance supports the overall goal of transformational diplomacy: to help build sustained and well-governed states that responds to the needs of their people, reduce widespread poverty, and conduct them responsibly in the international system. USAID assistance to Africa works to help African governments, institutions, and organizations incorporate good governance principles and innovative approaches to health, education, economic growth, agriculture, and the environment.131 4. Agriculture: At the April, 2009 G20 Summit President Osama called upon Congress to double U.S. support for agricultural development in developing countries to more than $1 billion.

Recognizing that solving to food insecurity requires engaging the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s poorest populations toward rapid, sustained economic growth, the President tasked USAID to take a leading role in the endeavor.

The recent food price crisis and global recession added to the suffering of people living in poverty and chronic hunger. Around 75% of people in poor countries live in rural areasâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;the vast majority depends on agriculture for their livelihoods. In many countries where hunger is prevalent, farming is done by women, who own barely two percent of land worldwide, and often have limited access to agriculture inputs, loans, and opportunities to learn about improved techniques. Agricultural development reduces global hunger and poverty because it is a proven engine of economic growth early in the development process. T Throughout history, growth in agriculture was a precursor for industrial growth - from mid-18th century England to late-19th century Japan to modern China whose rural poverty declined from 53 percent in 1981 to 8 percent in 2001. Achieving the first of the United Nation's eight Millennium Development Goals, eradicating extreme poverty and hunger, requires significant investment in agriculture by donors, developing countries, and the private sector.

USAID helps developing countries to harness agriculture for economic growth to increase the supply and lower the cost of food and increase incomes by making agriculture more efficient, productive and sustainable. g) USAIDâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s approach: USAID has a long history of technical leadership in international agricultural development, drawing upon the expertise of U.S. universities, industry, non-governmental and 130 - Office of the United States Trade Representatives, African Growth and Opportunity ACT, Last updated on 19 August 2009, http://www.ustr.gov/trade-topics/trade-development/preference-programs/african-growth-andopportunity-act-agoa 131 - USAID, Sub Saharan Africa, Last updated on January 12 2009, http://www.usaid.gov/locations/sub-saharan_africa/

private voluntary organizations, and multilateral development partners. USAID aligns behind country-driven strategies and invests in strengthening both public and private institutions that underpin growth of the agricultural sector. The Agency works throughout the sector, from developing improved seeds and management practices to strengthening the industries along the agricultural value chain. USAID is scaling-up a comprehensive approach to agriculture by: ď&#x201A;ˇ Developing agriculture markets, trade and finance ď&#x201A;ˇ Promoting food security ď&#x201A;ˇ Funding science and technology researches efforts Mainly democrats believe in the urgent need to solve the food crisis and that they cannot tackle hunger alone as they engage in multilateral approaches and work in coordination with international institutions including the World Food Program, international aid organizations and the World Bank. And that in Africa things have actually gone backward.

For republicans they believe that their way to solve this crisis will lie in increasing crop yields, creating rural economic opportunities, broadening trade relations, and improving scientific cooperation. But they can see that by promoting organic and sustainable agriculture that they tear down other types of agriculture.

A Model American Congress â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;CRSâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Prepared by

Chairman Karim Zaki Vice chair Hadeer Samy Ranking Member Ahmed Alaa Party Consultant Menna Ahmed

Table of Contents Introduction...................................................................................................................................................................................

The Senate Committee on Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs........................................................................................

The Nuclear Dilemma!...................................................................................................................................................................

Addressing Iran’s Nuclear threat................................................................................................................................................

Brief timeline of Iran’s Nuclear ambition...............................................................................................................................

Evident threats to the U.S......................................................................................................................................................

Considerable American Strategic defensive and offensive options........................................................................................

Different points of view and analysis.....................................................................................................................................

The Nuclear Arsenal of the United States..................................................................................................................................

Current Nuclear capabilities...................................................................................................................................................

Funding of Nuclear weapons.................................................................................................................................................

Technicalities of Nuclear weapons.........................................................................................................................................

Reduction?...Enlargement?....................................................................................................................................................

Cybersecurity.................................................................................................................................................................................

Introduction...............................................................................................................................................................................

Cyber space............................................................................................................................................................................

Cyber terrorism & Economic espionage.................................................................................................................................

Cyber security........................................................................................................................................................................

Known Cyber attacks..................................................................................................................................................................

Terrorist attacks and thef......................................................................................................................................................

Threats to the United States......................................................................................................................................................

Cyber-defensive.........................................................................................................................................................................

Surveillance and FISA (Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act)................................................................................................

Security of Cyber-systems and critical infrastructure.............................................................................................................

Security Vs. Liberty....................................................................................................................................................................

The Senate Committee on Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs The committee on Homeland Security & GA is the newest committee to be structured in the Senate. Soon after the 9/11 attacks, many in the U.S found themselves ‘vulnerable’ to inner and foreign attacks on Americans. Panic and the feeling of insecurity followed and many found it important to have a separate department to secure and protect the people of the United States. The Bush administration decided to establish in working s with the congress, the Department of Homeland Security. Within this frame, the committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs was also established by Congress to legislatively oversee the newly established Department.

Given broad jurisdiction over all aspects of Homeland Security of the United States, it is one of the most important and powerful Senate committees.

The jurisdiction of Homeland Security is within the following: 1. All immigration services and border protection 2. Archives of the U.S 3. Budget and Accounting measures other than appropriations, Economic and Social statistics.

4. Government information and intergovernmental relations.

5. Organization and management of the U.S Nuclear export policy, and foreign Nuclear relations 6. Protection of the U.S critical infrastructure.

7. Protection from domestic threats of terrorism, and foreign threats to homeland security.

8. International security in connection with homeland security…

Through the preceding points, we can see to what extent the jurisdiction of the committee can stretch out… that was the story Senate committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs.

With all the previous, this year MAC launches its own committee on Homeland Securityâ&#x20AC;Ś

The Nuclear Dilemma!

"The United States will take concrete steps towards a world without nuclear weapons."

--Noble Peace winner Barack Obama.-Weapons of Mass Destruction has been a menace to the international community.

Specifically, the most destructive ones, the nuclear weapons capable of unimaginable destruction.

Since the famous Albert Einstein, who is a pacifist to begin with, created the first atomic bomb, the making of foreign policy in international relations has unalterably changed forever…

The Nuclear Dilemma in Homeland Security this year is discussed through the following: 1. Iran’s Nuclear threat 2. The Nuclear Arsenal of the United States Nuclear weapons pose a serious threat to the international community. The U.S. is one of eight states that possess nuclear weapons. Along with the U.S., Russia, the United Kingdom, France and China have been open about their nuclear weapons stockpiles. India and Pakistan have conducted nuclear tests, and there is wide speculation, but no public acknowledgment, that Israel has nuclear weapons in its possession. North Korea has also declared that it has a nuclear arsenal.

In 1968, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) was signed in order to guard against the spread of nuclear weapons to other countries during the Cold War. The treaty, which is still in effect today, is based upon three pillars: non-proliferation, disarmament and the right to peacefully use nuclear technology. There are two important footnotes to the NPT. First, only five states are permitted by the treaty to maintain nuclear weapons: U.S., U.K., Russia, France, and China. These states were in possession of nuclear weapons at the time of the treaty's inception and are also the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. Second, there are many influential states that have not signed on to the treaty and are therefore not bound by its regulations, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea being among them. We remain wary of nuclear weapons in our world…but many are more worried about Iran’s progress in this arena…

Addressing Iran’s Nuclear threat In order to be able to grasp the situation in Iran, first we will have to briefly go through the historical timeline that lead to the current situation.

Brief timeline of Iran’s Nuclear ambition Before the Islamic revolution, Iran was has having a full boost in its nuclear program, and it was mostly controlled and observed by the west. Most of the facilities in Iran at the time were within the west’s “safety procedures”. This was until1979, everything changed…

1979: Iran's Islamic revolution puts a freeze on the existing nuclear program and the Bushehr contract with Siemens AG is terminated as the German firm leaves.

1982: Iranian officials announced that they planned to build a reactor powered by their own uranium at the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Centre.

1983: International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors inspect Iranian nuclear facilities, and report on a proposed co-operation agreement to help Iran manufacture enriched uranium fuel as part of Iran's "ambitious program in the field of nuclear power reactor technology and fuel cycle technology." The assistance program is later terminated under U.S. pressure.

1989: the Radiation Protection Act of Iran was ratified in public session of April 9 1989 by the Parliament and was approved by the Council of Law-Guardians on April 19, 1989.

Iran begins negotiations with the Soviet Union regarding the re-construction of the Bushehr power plant.

1992: Iran signs an agreement with China for the building of two 950-watt reactors in Darkhovin (Western Iran). To date, construction has not yet begun.

1993: China provides Iran with an HT-6B Tokamak fusion reactor that is installed at the Plasma Physics Research Centre of Azad University.

January 1995: Iran signs an $800 million contract with the Russian Ministry of Atomic Energy (MinAtom) to complete reactors at Bushehr under IAEA safeguards. China and Iran inform the IAEA of plans to construct a nuclear enrichment facility in Iran, but China withdraws from the contract under U.S. pressure. Iran advises the IAEA that it plans to pursue the construction anyway.132 Iran is a party to the NPT and has concluded a comprehensive safeguards agreement.

According to the IAEA, safeguards pursuant to such agreements are applied to verify a State’s compliance with its undertaking to accept safeguards on all nuclear material in all 132 Dr. Farhang Jahanpour (2006). “Chronology of Iran's Nuclear Program”

its peaceful nuclear activities and to verify that such material is not diverted to nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.

Iran announced in January 2006 that it would resume research and development on its centrifuges at Natanz.

On September 21, 2009, Iran informed the IAEA that it was constructing a second enrichment facility. The following day (September 22) IAEA Director General El-Baradei informed the United States, and two days later (September 24) the United States, United Kingdom and France briefed the IAEA on an enrichment facility under construction at an underground location near Qom. On September 25, at the G-20 Summit, the three countries criticized Iran for once again concealing a nuclear facility from the IAEA. The United States argued that the facility, which was still months from completion, was too small to be useful for a civil program but could produce enough high-enriched uranium for one or more bombs per year.Iran said the plant was for peaceful purposes and would take between a year and a half to two years to complete, and that the notice Iran had given had exceeded the 180 days before insertion of nuclear materials the IAEA safeguards agreement that Iran was following required. Iran agreed to allow IAEA inspections.133

Evident threats to the U.S Iranâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Military capabilities

All branches of armed forces fall under the command of General Headquarters of Armed Forces. The Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics is responsible for planning logistics and funding of the armed forces and is not involved in in-the-field military operational command. ď&#x201A;ˇ

The Iranian Military consists of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army, Islamic Republic of Iran Navy, Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force, and the Iranian Air Defense Force. The regular armed forces have an estimated 420,000 personnel: the Islamic Republic of Iran Army, 350,000 personnel; the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy, 18,000 personnel; and the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force, 52,000 airmen. Iranian Air Defense Force is a branch split off from the IRIAF.134

133 Thomas Erdbrink (September 26, 2009). "Angry Reaction "Shocked" Head of Iran's Nuclear Program".

Washington Post. Retrieved 2009-09-26.

134 FARS NEW AGENCY, Thursday 18 Mar 2010, http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8711271164

ď&#x201A;ˇ

The Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution, or Revolutionary Guards, has an estimated 125,000 personnel in five branches: Its own Navy, Air Force, and Ground Forces; and the Quds Force (Special Forces).135

ď&#x201A;ˇ

The Basij is a paramilitary volunteer force controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards. Its membership is a matter of controversy. Iranian sources claim a membership of 12.6 million, including women, of which perhaps 3 million are combat capable. There are a claimed 2,500 battalions of which some are full-time personnel. Globalsecurity.org quotes a 2005 study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimating 90,000 active-duty full-time uniformed members, 300,000 reservists, and a total of 11 million men that can be mobilized if need be. 136

Iran's military was called the Middle East's most powerful by General John Abizaid chief of United States Central Command (U.S. forces' commander in the region). However General Abizaid said he did not include the Israel Defense Forces as they did not fall into his area of operations.

On November 2, 2006, Iran fired unarmed missiles to begin 10 days of military simulations. Iranian state television reported "dozens of missiles were fired including Shahab-2 and Shahab-3 missiles. The missiles had ranges from 300 km to up to 1300 km. Iranian experts have made some changes to Shahab-3 missiles installing cluster warheads in them with the capacity to carry 1,400 bombs." These launches come after some United States-led military exercises in the Persian Gulf on October 30, 2006, meant to train for blocking the transport of weapons of mass destruction. Iran is also believed to have started the development of an ICBM/IRBM missile project, known as Ghadr-110 with a range of 3000 km; the program is paralleled with advancement of a satellite launcher named IRIS.137

135 IISS Military Balance 2006, Routledge for the IISS, London, 2006, p.187 136 GlobalSecurity.org 137 BBC, Friday, 22 January 2010, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4031603.stm

Regional influence

Introduction In the wake of the Islamic revolution of 1979 and the post-2001 regional turbulence, Shia Islam has undergone an unprecedented political renaissance – as the religious and political dynamism of Middle Eastern and central Asian Shia communities demonstrate. Iran’s growing power, parallel to the reaffirmation of Shias in Iraq, Lebanon, and Pakistan, has fed fears in Sunni and Western capitals of an emergence of a pan-Shia sphere under Iranian leadership extending from the Great Wall to the Wailing Wall. The theory of the ‘Shia Crescent’ has emerged from these fears. The theory’s proponents perceive this Crescent as a new geo-cultural ensemble occupying a key strategic position on the Eurasian map – and as a source of regional and international instability. Seductive though this theory may be, it is important to look beneath the rather speculative reasoning upon which it is based. While Sunni capitals speak of the Shia Crescent as an undisputable phenomenon, more prudent analysts see it as a myth without any foundations. While it is still too soon to pass final judgment on the likelihood of a future pro-Iranian ‘Greater Shiistan’, it is imperative that we start inquiring today into the cohesive force of panShiism and its place in the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Does the theory of the Shia Crescent correspond to reality? And whether or not it does, does the pursuit of this Crescent constitute a central plank of Iranian foreign policy, or is it simply one tool amongst others employed to pursue Iran's historically consistent ambition of becoming a major regional and international force?

Gulf States have at times adopted towards their domestic Shia minorities: the granting of specific religious rights, as in Qatar; the granting of political and economic rights, as in Bahrain; or the association of Shia leaders in the institutional reform process, as in Saudi Arabia. Such efforts towards accommodation have not led to a dissipation of the fears of a ‘Shia threat’ in the Middle East. On the contrary, these fears have recently gained new force, through their crystallisation into the concept henceforth known as the “Shia Crescent.” Popularized in the early 2000s by the Jordanian King, Abdullah, the concept rests upon the geopolitical continuity of Shia communities, superimposed upon the major regions of hydrocarbon production. Spread by the media, the theory posits that these Shia communities “are essentially loyal to Iran,” as Hosni Mubarak recently asserted.

The Islamic Republic is understandably frightening to its Sunni neighbours. The impressive influence of its religious network and the substantial financial resources dedicated to its pro-Shia policies provide a valuable tool for Tehran to amplify its message.

But though a pan-Shia policy may serve as a useful tool to augment Iran’s regional influence, Iranian leaders are not ignorant of the serious constraints a strategy exclusively based upon Shiism would entail. Far from being a monolithic entity likely to respond to attempts towards unification, Shiism is a polymorphous entity riven by a multitude of denominational cleavages and political rivalries. True, Shia eschatology (based on the millenarian hope of a just society) could potentially constitute a federative force capable of surmounting these cleavages, but on the other hand nothing guarantees that Iran – conspicuous in its Persian identity and handicapped by its own internal contradictions –

could hope to incarnate alone the Shia ideal and be accepted as head of a hypothetical â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;Great Confederation of Shiistan.â&#x20AC;&#x2122; Conscious of these limitations, the Iranian leadership decided quite early on to diversify Iranian policy. In a perfectly pragmatic and opportunistic fashion, Iran has, depending upon the circumstances, relied equally upon policies of Islamic convergence and of non-religious international politics. The decisive factor has been that the policy adopted must serve the regional and global ambitions of the Iranian Republic.138

Considerable American Strategic defensive and offensive options Short term defensive and offensive options Short Term offensive options a. Large scale invasion Conventional warfare is a form of warfare conducted by using conventional military weapons and battlefield tactics between two or more states in open confrontation. The forces on each side are well-defined, and fight using weapons that primarily target the opposing army. It is normally fought using conventional weapons, not chemical, biological, nor nuclear weapons. The general purpose of conventional warfare is to weaken or destroy the opponent's military force, thereby negating its ability to engage in conventional warfare. In forcing capitulation, however, one or both sides may eventually resort to unconventional warfare tactics. b. Covert action A covert operation (also as CoveOps or covert ops) is a military, intelligence or law enforcement operation that is carried clandestinely and, often, outside of official channels. Covert operations aim to fulfill their mission objectives without any parties knowing who sponsored or carried out the operation. Under United States law, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is the sole agency legally allowed to carry out Covert Action. The CIA's authorities to conduct Covert Action come from the National Security Act of 1947. President Ronald Reagan issued Executive Order 12333 titled in 1984. This order defined covert action as "special activities", both political and military, that the US Government could legally deny. The CIA was also 138 Pahlavi, Pierre. "Iran's Policy of Regional Influence: Pan-Shiism or Pan-Islamism?" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the ISA's 49th ANNUAL CONVENTION, BRIDGING MULTIPLE DIVIDES, Hilton San Francisco, SAN FRANCISCO, CA, USA, Mar 26, 2008

designated as the sole authority under the 1991 Intelligence Authorization Act and in Title 50 of the United States Code Section 413(e).139 c. Effective Airstrikes An air strike is a military strike by air forces or other military aviation assets against either a suspected or a confirmed enemy ground position. Air strikes are commonly delivered from aircraft such as bombers, ground attack aircraft, strike fighters, and Attack helicopters. Weapons used in an airstrike can range from machine gun bullets, missiles, to various types of bombs. Air strikes are sometimes initiated in strategic bombings, but the term generally refers to tactical intervention by airpower on the battlefield.

American air strikes on Iran would vastly exceed the scope of the 1981 Israeli attack on the Osiraq nuclear center in Iraq, and would more resemble the opening days of the 2003 air campaign against Iraq. Using the full force of operational B-2 stealth bombers, staging from Diego Garcia or flying direct from the United States, possibly supplemented by F-117 stealth fighters staging from al Udeid in Qatar or some other location in theater, the two-dozen suspect nuclear sites would be targeted.

d. Naval Blockade It is the interdiction of a nation's lines of communication at sea by the use of naval power.

Notice the map and the water areas around Iran e. Negative Allied Front NAF It resembles the use of an allied military force to assume an offensive strike on a target; it can be done though any of the options mentioned. The frontline nation is usually supported with weapons and/or funds to complete the military operation. f. Penetrators The Defense Department is developing an advanced “bunker-buster” The department has been “working on technology that allows us to get at deeply buried, hardened targets” since 2004. Development of the bomb has taken longer than originally envisioned because of variables in the budget process. Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell told reporters that the department was developing a massive penetrator bomb designed to pulverize underground facilities that may store weapons of mass destruction and related systems. At a 139 Executive Secrets: Covert Action and the Presidency, William J. Daugherty, University of Kentucky Press, 2004.

hefty 30,000 pounds, the new penetrator bomb weighs almost 4 tons more than the US militaryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s former heavyweight champion, the nearly 22,000-pound massive ordnance air blast conventional bomb, known by the acronym MOAB. The massive penetrator bomb will be in a class by itself and represents a unique capability.140 Massive ordnance penetrators MOP: The MOP is a technology demonstration program funded by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency [DTRA] to develop a 30,000-pound conventional penetrating weapon that will defeat a specialized set of hard and deeply buried targets. The MOP is designed specifically to attack hardened concrete bunkers and tunnel facilities. Designed to be carried aboard B-2 and B-52 bombers and deployed at high altitudes, the MOP's innovative design features include a Global Positioning System navigation system. Boeing's Phantom Works is leading the effort to demonstrate the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP).

Northrop Grumman is working on with Boeing to develop this conventional bunker buster.141

Short Term defenses a. Naval Missile Defense The Pentagons Missile Defense Agency tested a key leg in its missile shield triad yesterday, shooting down both a sub-sonic cruise missile in the atmosphere and a ballistic missile in space with a ship-based interceptor. To say the least, missile defense has been extremely controversial over the years, and it is a subject of heated debate over whether the hundreds of billions of dollars spent on systems over the years have been worth the cost. But it is worth chalking up this test in the win column for the embattled agency.

In a first of its kind dual missile defense test, Raytheon Company-produced Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) and Standard Missile-2 (SM-2) simultaneously engaged targets over the Pacific Ocean.

This was the first time a U.S. Navy ship demonstrated simultaneous ship engagements against both cruise and ballistic missile targets. It was the eighth successful intercept for the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense systems SM-3.

The SM-3 Block IA destroyed a short-range ballistic missile target in space while SM-2 Block IIIA engaged a cruise missile threat at a lower altitude. Both intercepting missiles were fired from guided missile cruiser USS Lake Erie (CG 70) by the ships crew. The ballistic missile target was launched from the U.S. Navys Pacific Missile Range Facility on Kauai. The subsonic cruise missile target was launched from a range aircraft. This test, Flight Test Mission-11, was the second with the Block IA version of SM-3, and the first IA with a full-capability solid divert and attitude control system. Raytheon is delivering Block IA rounds for operational use on Navy cruisers and destroyers. The SM-3 Block IA provides increased capability to engage shortâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; to 140 http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/dshtw.htm 141 ibid

intermediate-range ballistic missiles. The SM-3 Block IA incorporates rocket motor upgrades and computer program modifications to improve sensor performance, missile guidance and control, and lower cost. It also includes producibility and maintainability features required to qualify the missile as a tactical fleet asset.

Its definately worth noting the complexity of such a test. Two different kinds of missile threats, tracked by the Aegis radar system that was feeding information to two different interceptors â&#x20AC;&#x201D; each with its own seeker technology â&#x20AC;&#x201D; to a terminal kill. Experts on both sides of the debate recognize the sterility of such tests. In the real world, adversaries might incorporate decoys and other defenses to keep their missiles from being shot down.

But, despite the incredible costs, its important to remember that well-meaning people are hard at work trying to solve a problem and a threat that has so far kept most nations helpless to confront militarily. b. The Military Bases Military bases are conceived for training purposes, preparation and stock age of military equipment, used by national armies throughout the World. They are not very well known in view of the fact that they are not open to the public at large. Even though they take on different shapes, according to the military function for which they were established; they can broadly be classified under four main categories: 142 a) Air Force Bases: The mission of the U.S. Air Force is straightforward yet profound: to defend the United States and protect its interests through aerospace power.143 b) Army or Land Bases c) Navy Bases d) Communication and Spy Bases.

These bases are considered to be treated like chess pieces, effectively being deployed and re-settled on request all around the Middle East.

142 http://www.globalpolicy.org/component/content/article/153/26325.html 143 http://www.teradata.com/t/assets/0/206/282/7caff1e2-c04c-4a21-bb2a-ecfbb9c8af1d.pdf

Long term defensive and offensive options US nuclear umbrella

It is defined as the nuclear weapons of one country seen as protection for its allies.144 A nuclear umbrella is usually used for the security alliances of the United States with non-nuclear states such as Japan, South Korea, much of Europe, Turkey, Canada, and Australia, originating with the Cold War with the then Soviet Union. For some countries it was an alternative to acquiring nuclear weapons themselves.145 Barack Obama's administration promised to offer Israel a "nuclear umbrella" against the threat of a nuclear attack by Iran.

Secretary of state-designate Hillary Clinton had raised the idea of a nuclear guarantee to Israel during her campaign for the Democratic Party's nomination for the presidency. During a debate with Obama in April, Clinton said that Israel and Arab countries must be given "deterrent backing." She added, "Iran must know that an attack on Israel will draw a massive response."

Clinton also proposed that the American nuclear umbrella be extended to other countries in the region, like Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, if they agree to relinquish their own nuclear ambitions.

The nuclear guarantee would be backed by a new and improved Israeli anti-ballistic missile system. The Bush administration took the first step by deploying an early-warning radar system in the Negev, which hones the ability to detect Iranian ballistic missiles. 146

Ballistic Missile defence:

144 http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/nuclear+umbrella?jss=1 145 http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=48156 146 Aluff benn, â&#x20AC;&#x153;Obama's atomic umbrella: U.S. nuclear strike if Iran nukes Israelâ&#x20AC;?, Haartez , 11/12/2008

As the threat from long-range nuclear missiles is growing and endangers the lives of millions of Americans America needs a comprehensive ballistic missile defence system that employs a multilayered defence system of sea, ground, and space-based systems.

“The United States will initially deploy Navy ships equipped with Aegis missile interceptors to help defend Europe and U.S. forces against threats from Iran and others” Robert Gates. The US has been developing a missile defense system intended to destroy incoming ballistic missiles potentially coming from North Korea and Iran.147 In Czech Republic and Poland:

The Bush administration had planned to station 10 interceptor missiles in Poland and radar in the Czech Republic. Gates said the decision to change plans was based mainly on technological developments and a shift in intelligence assessments to meet short and medium-range missile threats posed by Iran.148 Poland and the Czech Republic were surprised when the president dropped plans to deploy missile interceptors and radar to the region. He purportedly intends to focus on systems that will defend against Iran’s shorter-range missiles rather than long-range. U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense Alexander Vershbow told reporters at a briefing to polish officials that the U.S. will deploy sea-based and SM-3 interceptors to Poland that would target short-range missiles. Vershbow said the new plan will be “more flexible” than President George Bush’s plan and will allay Russia’s concerns about long-range missile interceptors. Gates said deploying ships in the near term with SM-3 interceptors, made by Raytheon Co, would provide the flexibility to move U.S. missile defense capabilities as may be needed.

Ships with Aegis interceptor systems are capable of blowing up ballistic missiles above the atmosphere. The system can track over 100 targets, military officials said. Cartwright said the Pentagon envisioned keeping three ships at any given time in and around the Mediterranean and the North Sea to protect "areas of interest," with the possibility of

147 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6720153.stm 148 Adam Entous and Phil Stewart, “US to deploy ships with interceptors to Europe”, Reuters, Sep. 17 2009

"surging" additional ships to the region as needed. A second phase of the system, Gates said, involved deploying upgraded, land-based SM-3s starting in about 2015.149

The interception technology used has varied over time. In the 1960s, missile defense against ICBMs emphasized nuclear warheads. In recent decades non-nuclear kinetic warheads have been used. Directed-energy weapons such as lasers have been investigated and deployed on a limited basis. For example, India's DRDO is developing a laser-based weapon system as part of its ballistic missile defense program to intercept and destroy missiles soon after they are launched towards the country.

The United States, United Kingdom, Russia, France, Israel, China, and India have all developed such air defense systems. In the United States, missile defense was originally the responsibility of the Army, but in recent years the Navy and Air Force have developed their own systems.



Strategic missile defense: Targets long-range ICBMs, which travel at about 7 km/s (15,700 mph). Example of currently active systems: Russian A-135 system which defends Moscow, and the U.S. Ground-Based Midcourse Defense system that defends the United States. Geographic range of strategic defense can be regional (Russian system) or national (U.S. system).



Theater missile defense: Targets medium-range Theatre ballistic missile, which travel at about 3 km/s (6,700 mph) or less. In this context the term "theater" means the entire localized region for military operations, typically a radius of several hundred kilometers.

Defense range of theater defensive systems is usually on this order. Examples of deployed or soon-to-be deployed theater missile defenses: THAAD, Airborne laser and Russian S-400 Triumf.



Tactical missile defense: Targets short-range tactical ballistic missiles, which usually travel at less than 1.5 km/s (3,400 mph). Tactical ABMs have short ranges, typically 2080 km (12-50 miles). Example of currently-deployed tactical ABM: MIM-104 Patriot, S300V.

Ballistic missiles can be intercepted in three regions of their trajectory: boost phase, midcourse phase or terminal phase. 

Boost phase: intercepting the missile while its rocket motors are firing, usually over the launch territory. Advantages: bright, hot rocket exhaust makes detection, discrimination and targeting easier. Decoys cannot be used during boost phase. Disadvantages: difficult to geographically position interceptors to intercept missiles in boost phase (not always possible without flying over hostile territory), short time for intercept (typically about 180 seconds). Example: aircraft-mounted laser weapon Boeing YAL-1 (under development).

149 http://33-minutes.com/2009/10/19/patriots-to-poland/

ď&#x201A;ˇ

Mid-course phase: intercepting the missile in space after the rocket burns out. The coast period through space before reentering the atmosphere can be several minutes, up to 20 minutes for an ICBM. Advantages: extended decision/intercept time, very large geographic defensive coverage, potentially continental. Disadvantages: requires large/heavy anti-ballistic missiles, sophisticated powerful radar often augmented by space-based sensors, must handle potential space-based decoys.

ď&#x201A;ˇ

Terminal phase: intercepting the missile after it reenters the atmosphere. Advantages: smaller/lighter anti-ballistic missile required, balloon decoys won't work, smaller, less sophisticated radar required. Disadvantages: very short reaction time, possibly less than 30 seconds, less defended geographic coverage. Possible blanketing of target area with hazardous materials in the case of detonation of nuclear warhead(s).

This missile defence system is the ultimate all-out missile defence

Using Land, Air, and Sea power to collectively produce a more precise, more accurate detection and interception process. 150

In Israel: Israel and the U.S. are conducting a joint missile defense exercise called Juniper Cobra, which will simulate response to an attack by the Islamic Republic, Syria, and Hezbollah.

American soldiers and missile ships are in Israel to carry out the exercise.

Among the systems tested are the Arrow II, THAAD, Aegis, and PAC-3. Israel’s Iron Dome, an anti-rocket shield, is designed to defend Israel from Hamas and Hezbollah rockets and also serves as a major component in a multi-layered missile defense system that includes the Arrow II anti-ballistic missile shield. The U.S. and Israel are working together to develop Arrow III, designed to destroy multiple-warhead missiles and decoys.

As expected, Iran isn’t taking the news well. Iranian cleric Mojtaba Zolnour, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s representative in the Revolutionary Guard, said: “before the dust settles, Iranian missiles will blow up the heart of Israel.”151

Juniper cobra: On the heels of conducting a joint missile defense exercise - which simulated a response to an attack by the Islamic Republic, Syria, and Hezbollah - Israel and the U.S. will conduct the juniper cobra. As part of a biennial exercise between the two countries, this drill is dubbed the “largest-ever” simulated attack on Israel.152

Defence support program: It is a survivable and reliable satellite-borne system that uses infrared detectors to sense heat from missile plumes against the earth background, to detect and report in real-time missile launches, space launches and nuclear detonations.

The original DSP weighed 2,100 pounds, had 400 watts of power, 2,000 detectors and a design life of three years.153 150 The United States Missile defense agency 151http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1255204765487&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull 152 http://33-minutes.com/2009/10/21/second-us-israel-juniper-cobra-drill/ 153 http://www.fas.org/spp/military/program/warning/dsp.htm

THAAD THAAD is now a key component of America's global Theatre Missile Defense (TMD) system aimed to provide area-wide protection for American forces, fleets and bases in such regions as the Middle East, the Gulf, Central and Southern Asia, and Southeast and Eastern Asia. It is not to be confused with the National Missile Defense (NMD) system that is meant to furnish global protection for the US mainland. Washington has already put components of its TMD system in place in Alaska, Britain, Norway, Denmark and, more recently, the Czech Republic and Poland. THAAD was introduced to furnish more extensive coverage for American military locations, population centres and strategic targets and was designed to intercept missiles with ranges from 100 to 2,000 kilometres and at altitudes of 150 kilometres. One of the advantages of this system is its ability to down enemy missiles in the final phases of its flight before they can reach their targets. It also reduces the number of missiles needed to engage low altitude targets. The THAAD system consists of a mobile missile launcher that fires interceptor missiles equipped with computerized sensors capable of differentiating between real and hostile targets. It also depends on ground/air transportable radar linked with a command and control centre, which gives the entire system unprecedented maneuverability. A THAAD battery could consist of three to six missiles each capable of carrying six to eight interceptors.154

In Turkey: The United States has formally invited Turkey and other NATO allies to join a U.S.-led missile shield program, recently restructured by U.S. President Barack Obama that would protect the U.S. and allies from potential missile strikes by Iran In phase one of the new Obama plan, the United States will deploy current SM-3 interceptor missiles and radar surveillance systems on sea-based Aegis weapons systems by 2011. By 2015, a more capable version of the SM-3 interceptor and more advanced sensors will be used in both sea- and land-based configurations. In later phases three and four, intercepting and detecting capabilities will be further developed.155

Different points of view and analysis The Iranian regime has emerged as a very tough international political player on the nuclear issue and while the international community weighs and debates its options for halting a defiant Iran’s foray toward Nuclearization, relatively little attention is given to the Iranian and American public opinion on this very issue.

154 Galal Nassar, “Israel’s US missile shield”, Al Ahram weekly, issue no. 911, Al Ahram, Cairo, 21-27 august 2008 155 “US invites Turkey to join missile shield”, Hurriyet Daily news, Oct. 8 2009.

A recent Gallup Panel poll finds more than 6 in 10 Americans saying Iran's nuclear program poses a serious threat to the United States, with one-third saying it poses a "very serious" threat.

Since the release of the National Intelligence Estimate report, there has been little change in the belief that Iran is the single country that poses the greatest threat to world stability. The vast majority of Americans also believe the true purpose of Iran's nuclear program is to produce nuclear weapons rather than nuclear power.

Overall Results The Dec. 10-13, 2007, poll updated a question from earlier this year that asks Americans to name, in their own words, the single country they consider to be the greatest threat to stability in the world. Iran continues to top the list.

156

The public also believes that Iran's nuclear program poses a serious threat to the United States. According to the poll, 61% of Americans say the Iranian nuclear program poses a threat to the United States, with 33% saying it poses a "very serious" threat. Thirty-seven percent say Iran's nuclear program does not pose a threat to the United States.

In the poll, by a 67% to 27% margin, Americans overwhelmingly say the true purpose of the program is to construct nuclear weapons rather than to produce nuclear power.

156 http://www.muslimwestfacts.com/mwf/106453/Public-Irans-Nuclear-Program-Poses-Threat-US.aspx

157

“I wouldn't even know and I spent three years in the CIA - I wouldn't even know how you'd start a covert action program in a place like Iran. It would be extraordinarily difficult.”

--Frank Carlucci--

157 http://www.muslimwestfacts.com/mwf/106453/Public-Irans-Nuclear-Program-Poses-Threat-US.aspx

The Nuclear Arsenal of the United States

The United States was the first country in the world to develop nuclear weapons, and is the only country to have used them as actual weapons, during the two bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in World War II. Before and during the Cold War it conducted over a thousand nuclear tests and developed many long-range weapon delivery systems. It maintains an arsenal of about 5,500 warheads to this day, as well as facilities for their construction and design, though many of the Cold War facilities have since been deactivated and are sites for environmental remediation.158

Current Nuclear capabilities The United States is one of the five recognized nuclear powers under the Nuclear NonProliferation Treaty ("NPT"). It maintains a current arsenal of around 9,960 intact warheads, of which 5,735 are considered active or operational, and of these only a certain number are deployed at any given time. These break down into 5,021 "strategic" warheads, 1,050 of which are deployed on land-based missile systems (all on Minuteman ICBMs), 1,955 on bombers (B-52, B-1B, and B-2), and 2,016 on submarines (Ohio class), according to a 2006 report by the Natural Resources Defense Council. Of 500 "tactical" "nonstrategic" weapons, around 100 are Tomahawk cruise missiles and 400 are B61 bombs.

A few hundred of the B61 bombs are located at seven bases in six European NATO countries (Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Turkey and the United Kingdom), the only such weapons in forward deployment. 159160

158 Norris, Robert S.; Hans M. Kristensen (March/April 2008). "U.S. nuclear forces, 2008". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Around 4,225 warheads have been removed from deployment but have remained stockpiled as a "responsible reserve force" on inactive status. Under the May 2002 Treaty on Strategic Offensive Reductions ("SORT"), the U.S. pledged to reduce its stockpile to 2,200 operationally deployed warheads by 2012, and in June 2004 the Department of Energy announced that "almost half" of these warheads would be retired or dismantled by then. 161 The future nuclear stockpile under SORT will be based on: 450 Minuteman-III ICBM with 500 warheads. 400 with a single warhead and 50 with 2 MIRVs. There will be 200 W78 warheads and 300 W87 warheads.

12 operational Ohio-class submarines with another 2 in overhaul. Each has 24 TridentII missiles with 4 MIRV warheads of the W76 and W88 warheads, that will be a total of 1152 warheads. There will be 384 W88 and 768 W76 warheads for submarines.

94 B-52 and 20 B-2 strategic bombers with 540 warheads of the AGM-86 and B61 and B83. There will be 528 nuclear AGM-86B cruise Missiles with 300 active and 228 in reserve. Along with the 528 ALCM there will be 120 B61-7, 20 B61-11 and 100 B83 nuclear bombs for the bomber fleet.

The SORT treaty does not make the U.S. reduce its tactical nuclear arsenal so there will be 500-800 active tactical nuclear weapons. Also the weapons taken from active states do not have to be destroyed so there will be at least 2400 responsive reserve warheads.

Funding of Nuclear weapons From 1940-1996, the United States spent a minimum of $5.5 trillion on its nuclear weapons program. The amount spent through 1996â&#x20AC;&#x201D;$5.5 trillionâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;was 29 percent of all military spending from 1940 through 1996 ($18.7 trillion). This figure is significantly larger than any previous official or unofficial estimate of nuclear weapons expenditures, exceeding all other categories of government spending except non-nuclear national defense ($13.2 trillion) and social security ($7.9 trillion). This amounted to almost 11 percent of all government expenditures through 1996 ($51.6 trillion). During this period, the United States spent on average nearly $98 billion a year developing and maintaining its nuclear arsenal.162

159 "United States Still Deploys Some 480 nuclear weapon in Europe, report finds". Natural Resources Defense Council. February 9, 2005.

160 "United States Removes Nuclear Weapons From German Base, Documents Indicate". Federation of American Scientists. 2007-07-10.

161 "Country Overview: United States: Profile". Nuclear Threat Initiative. May 2006.

In fiscal year (FY) 2008, total appropriations for nuclear weapons and weapons-related programs at least $52.4 billion. The 2008 nuclear weapons and weapons-related â&#x20AC;&#x153;budgetâ&#x20AC;? exceeds all anticipated government expenditures on international diplomacy and foreign assistance ($39.5 billion) and natural resources and the environment ($33 billion). It is nearly double the budget for general science, space, and technology ($27.4 billion), and it is almost fourteen times what the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has allocated for all energy-related research and development. Moreover, the allocation of funds among the five categories reveals troubling realities about current government priorities in the nuclear arena.

Nuclear weapons and weapons-related spending accounts for about: _ 67 percent of the DOE budget; _ 8.5 percent of the budget of the Federal Bureau of Investigation; U.S Nuclear Weapons Appropriations have not changed in the following Fiscal Years _ 7.1 percent of the DOD budget (excluding the supplemental costs of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq); and _ 1.7 percent of the Department of Homeland Security budget.163

Broken down by major agencies, the nuclear budget looks like this: _Department of Defence, $33.9 billion; _ Department of Energy, $15.9 billion; _ Department of Homeland Security, $0.907 billion;

162 Stephen I. Schwartz , James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies , October 2008, 163Stephen I. Schwartz with Deepti Choubey, Nuclear Security Spending: Assessing Costs, Examining Priorities, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE, January 2009.

_ Department of Justice, $0.612 billion; _ Department of Labour, $0.582 billion; _ Department of State, $0.242 billion; and _ Department of Health and Human Services, $0.119 billion.

Figure 2 About 55.5 percent ($29.1 billion) of all nuclear expenses go toward upgrading, operating, and sustaining the U.S. nuclear arsenal (see Figure 3). These costs will increase significantly if the DOEâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s proposals to rebuild the nuclear weapons production complex and resume the production of nuclear weapons are approved and funded.164

164Stephen I. Schwartz with Deepti Choubey, Nuclear Security Spending: Assessing Costs, Examining Priorities, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE, January 2009.

Efforts to stem the spread of nuclear weapons and nuclear technology, eliminate “loose nukes,” and prevent the use of nuclear weapons anywhere are a relatively low budgetary priority. Just 9.9 percent ($5.2 billion) was appropriated for such activities in 2008. Of that total, $3.1 billion (60 percent) went toward preventive and security measures, $1.1 billion (20.7 percent) focused on eliminating nuclear threats, and $997.3 million (19.3 percent) was for nonproliferation programs (see Figure 4). In comparison, the DOE’s National Nuclear Security Administration received nearly $5 billion for “defense programs” to sustain the nuclear stockpile. The DOD allocated an estimated additional $22.5 billion to upgrade, operate, and maintain the U.S. strategic nuclear arsenal. Although threat reduction programs do not require and would not always benefit from the same level of investment as operational forces (not least because they are generally less capital-intensive and have more limited objectives), this disparity sends a message to the rest of the world that the United States considers preserving and enhancing its nuclear options more important than preventing nuclear proliferation.

Technicalities of Nuclear weapons Strategic and Tactical weapons The critical difference between tactical and strategic nuclear weapons is in how they are intended to be used. Tactical nuclear weapons, smaller and shorter-range, are meant to be used against battlefield military targets.165 The tactical use of nuclear weapons is defined as “the use of nuclear weapons by land, sea, or air forces against opposing forces, supporting 165 Benjamin Friedman, CDI Research Assistant, when is a nuke not a nuke?, http://www.cdi.org/nuclear/whennuke.cfm, accessed novamber7, 2009.

installations or facilities, in support of operations that contribute to the accomplishment of a military mission of limited scope.166On the other hand, Strategic nuclear weapons are generally attached to long-range delivery vehicles, like ICBMs, and are more powerful.167It is a weapon Directed against one or more of a selected series of enemy targets with the purpose of progressive destruction and disintegration of the enemy’s warmaking capacity and will to make war. Targets include key manufacturing systems, sources of raw material, critical material, stockpiles, power systems, transportation systems, communication facilities, and other such target systems. As opposed to tactical operations, strategic operations are designed to have a long-range rather than immediate effect on the enemy and its military forces. 168

Reduction?...Enlargement?

A critical debate on nuclear weapons is once again in the limelight. President Barack Obama has unequivocally, ambitiously, and repeatedly stated his ultimate vision of a world without nuclear weapons. Under the Obama policy, zero nuclear weapons is, for the first time in U.S. history, an operational, tangible U.S. policy goal and thus a measuring stick against which to judge a host of shorter-range, less ambitious initiatives or actions.

Non strategic (tactical weapons): The question of how to reduce or eliminate tactical nuclear weapons should be once an agreement extending the logic and verification protocols of START are reached. An agreement to extend key provisions of the treaty, at least on an interim basis, will have to be reached by the time the current treaty expires December 5. A formal agreement is expected to follow early next year. Tactical nuclear weapons are an important priority partly because of their seemingly easy solution, but also because the challenges they present are emblematic of those in the larger arms control debate.

The Political Debate The political debate also rages on. The Obama NPR due to Congress in early 2010 is expected to clarify much. Some opponents hope the NPR will become a barrier to any change or at least buy time for further consideration.

Nevertheless, there are hints of change to come. Robert Einhorn, an adviser to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, floated one idea in a presentation at the July STRATCOM conference.

Einhorn, who said he was speaking personally rather than in his official capacity, said the United States might consider removing “some or all of its tactical nuclear weapons from Europe to encourage Russia to consolidate its own arsenal of nonstrategic bombs.” Einhorn argued that tactical nuclear weapons have minimal, if any, military value in Europe and that their previous 166 Amy F. Woolf, Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons, CRS Report for Congress, August 10, 2009.

167 ibid 168 ibid

deterrent value is no longer relevant to the current debate. He emphasized the common U.S.Russian need to think about current security requirements, particularly the need to secure nuclear weapons and materials against terrorist theft.

Russian rhetoric has sometimes emphasized an opposite theme. In recent months, some Russian security officials have said the role of tactical nuclear weapons might actually increase, with their use being augmented on strategic submarines. Some of the arguments seem to represent stakes in domestic policy battles over service roles and budgetary requirements for the modernization funds now finally available. For example, Vice Adm. Oleg Burtsev, deputy chief of the Russian Federation Navy Main Staff, recently declared that “[t]he future may belong to tactical nuclear weapons. Their range and accuracy are increasing. There is no need to carry a powerful warhead, and we can go over to low-yield nuclear charges that can be installed on existing models of cruise missiles.”169 Bunker buster bombs: The technology of bunker busters may yet be improved, but only slightly; and what advances can be made against the hard limits of earth penetration are not enough to warrant the hundreds of millions of dollars needed to realize them. Even if earth penetrators could be made to perform at their theoretical limit, the only gain would be a temporary advantage over countries that have not yet dug bunkers at a depth that no weapon, no matter how massive, could ever reach. As soon as that comparatively easy engineering feat is completed, the nuclear weapon that spurred it on will have brought about its own obsolescence.170



Robust nuclear earth penetrator “RNEP” :

A modified bomb from the B61-11, the Bush administration was asking Congress to provide $26 million for RNEP in 2006-2007, new alterations continue to be added to the B61-11: ALT 350 for completion in September 2005 and ALT 357 (refurbishment of secondaries) from October 2005 with completion in September 2008.171 “The Defense Department officials has reached out to lawmakers regarding a potential funding increase for efforts to place an experimental bunker-buster bomb on the nation's B2 stealth bomber” reported on 21 sep. 2008172



Massive ordnance penetrator:

ABC News is reporting that the US military has requested and has gotten funds to develop and acquire the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (Mop).

169 http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Usa/Weapons/Wpngall.html 170 http://www.harpers.org/archive/2004/12/0080324 171 http://www.nukestrat.com/us/afn/B61-11.htm 172 http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20090803_3612.php

The acceleration of the development of the Massive Ordnance Penetrator suggests that the Pentagon, at least, is anxious to have the option of striking not only at Iranian, but North Korean nuclear facilities, which are heavily armored and buried in deep, underground bunkers. How far up the order came to accelerate the acquisition came from is unclear, but the almost immediate agreement of the Congressional appropriators suggests that the order came from the President.173 The Pentagon has brought forward to December 2009 the target-date for producing the first 15-ton super bunker-buster bomb (GBU-57A/B) Massive Ordinance Penetrator, which can reach a depth of 60.09 meters underground before exploding. DEBKA file’s military sources report that top defense agencies and air force units were also working against the clock to adapt the bay of a B2a Stealth bomber for carrying and delivering the bomb.174 The Pentagon has ordered the number of bombs rolling off the production line increased from four to ten – a rush job triggered in May by the discovery that Iran was hiding a second uranium enrichment plant under a mountain near Qom – a discovery which prompted this week’s international outcry.

Congress has since quietly inserted the necessary funding in the 2009 budget.



Reliable Replacement Warhead

The Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW) was a proposed new American nuclear warhead design and bomb family that was intended to be simple, reliable and to provide a long-lasting, low maintenance future nuclear force for the United States. Initiated by Congress in 2004, it became a centerpiece of the plans of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) to remake the nuclear weapons complex.

In 2008, the U.S. Congress denied funding for the program and in 2009 the Obama administration called for work on the program to cease.

The concept underlying the RRW program is that the US weapons laboratories can design new nuclear weapons that are highly reliable and easy and safe to manufacture, monitor, and test. If that proves to be possible, designers could adapt a common set of core design components to various use requirements, such as different sized missile warheads, different nuclear bomb types, etc.

NNSA officials believe the program is needed to maintain nuclear weapons expertise in order to rapidly adapt, repair, or modify existing weapons or develop new weapons as requirements evolve. They see the ability to adapt to changing military needs rather than maintain additional forces for unexpected contingencies as a key program driver. However, Congress has rejected the notion that the RRW is needed to meet new military requirements. In providing funds for 2006, the Appropriations Committee specified, "any weapons design under the RRW program must 173http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/2260265/massive_ordnance_penetrator_being_acquired_pg2_pg2.html ?cat=62 174 http://blog.mycountrymatters.com/2009/09/28/us-giant-bunker-buster-bomb-project-rushed-since-irans-qomsite-discovered/

stay within the military requirements of the existing deployed stockpile and any new weapon design must stay within the design parameters validated by past nuclear tests."175 Opponents of the RRW program believe it has nothing to do with making US weapons safer or more reliable, but is merely an excuse for designing new weapons and maintaining jobs at the weapons laboratories. They note that the Secretaries of Defense and Energy have certified that the existing nuclear weapons stockpile is safe and reliable in each of the last nine years. The existing stockpile was extensively tested before the US entered the moratorium on nuclear weapons tests. According to Sidney Drell and Ambassador James Goodby, "It takes an extraordinary flight of imagination to postulate a modern new arsenal composed of such untested designs that would be more reliable, safe and effective than the current U.S. arsenal based on more than 1,000 tests since 1945.”176

“A world without nuclear weapons would be less stable and more dangerous for all of us.”

-- Margaret Thatcher --

175 DEFENSE NUCLEAR FACILITIES SAFETY BOARD - Pantex Plant Activity Report for Week Ending January 16, 2004 176 Civiak, Robert (January 2009). "The Reliable Replacement Warhead Program: A Slippery Slope to New Nuclear Weapons"

Cybersecurity Introduction Cybersecurity has become an issue nowadays that cannot be underestimated. Since the 90’s, nations have moved to efficiently secure themselves from what was unknown to most of the public, but then known to governments as “cyber-crime”. Billions of dollars in loss made the capitalist western world fear that this problem might become so sophisticated that it will get out of control. Many say it has already indeed gotten out of control.

Before we move on we will have to grip the meanings and definition of some very important terms used in this area.

Cyber space “Cyber space” is the global domain of electromagnetics as accessed and exploited through electronic technology and the modulation of electromagnetic energy to achieve a wide range of communication and control system capabilities. The term is rooted in the science of cybernetics and Norbert Wiener’s pioneering work in electronic communication and control science, a forerunner to current information theory and computer science.

Through its electromagnetic nature, cyberspace integrates a number of capabilities (sensors, signals, connections, transmissions, processors, controllers) and generates a virtual interactive experience accessed for the purpose of communication and control regardless of a geographic location. In pragmatic terms, cyberspace allows the interdependent network of information technology infrastructures (ITI), telecommunications networks—such as the internet, computer systems, integrated sensors, system control networks and embedded processors and controllers common to global control and communications. As a social experience, individuals can interact, exchange ideas, share information, provide social support, conduct business, direct actions, create artistic media, play games, engage in political discussion, and so on.177 In other more simplistic words, "Cyberspace is the `place` where a telephone conversation appears to occur. Not inside your actual phone, the plastic device on your desk. Not inside the other person's phone, in some other city. _The_place_between_ the phones. The indefinite place _out_there_, where the two of you, human beings, actually meet and communicate."

Bruce Sterling [The Hacker Crackdown] 177 Andrew Pollack, New York Times, "For Artificial Reality, Wear A Computer,"

Cyber terrorism & Economic espionage “Cyber terrorism”… Some authors choose a very narrow definition, relating to deployments, by known terrorist organizations, of disruption attacks against information systems for the primary purpose of creating alarm and panic. By this narrow definition, it is difficult to identify any instances of cyber terrorism. Cyber terrorism can also be defined much more generally, for example, as “The premeditated use of disruptive activities, or the threat thereof, against computers and/or networks, with the intention to cause harm or further social, ideological, religious, political or similar objectives. Or to intimidate any person in furtherance of such objectives.” This broad definition was created by Kevin G. Coleman of the Technolytics Institute.178 One example of cyberterrorists at work was when terrorists in Romania illegally gained access to the computers controlling the life support systems at an Antarctic research station, endangering the 58 scientists involved. However, the culprits were stopped before damage actually occurred. Mostly non-political acts of sabotage have caused financial and other damage, as in a case where a disgruntled employee caused the release of untreated sewage into water in Maroochy Shire, Australia.179 As for Economic espionage, it simply refers to “trade theft”. Through cyberspace, one can infiltrate a corporation’s secret data, either for the aim of destroying it, or using it. Most cases recorded ironically shows that it has been for the aim of destroying and disrupting, but the aim is not to cause alarm and panic like in the case of cyber terrorism. Economic espionage is used for degrading and pulling back economic advancement in order for someone else to be able to compete or push forward his own economic advancement.

After an August, 2007 plea of guilt for (one count) of violating the Economic Espionage Act and one count of violating the Arms Export Control Act, San Jose U.S. District Court Judge Jeremy Fogel sentenced Canadian citizen Xiaodong Sheldon Meng, 44, to 24 months in federal prison, 3 years of parole and a $10,000 fine, with forfeiture of computer equipment seized. Meng was indicted in December 2006, with 36 counts, "for stealing military software from a Silicon Valley defense contractor and trying to sell it to the Chinese military." The first to be convicted of Economic Espionage (Section 1831), Meng admitted "illegally obtaining a program used for military training from Quantum3D and later using the program in a demonstration to the Chinese navy after he no longer worked for the firm; he attempted to sell the fighter-pilot training software programs to the Royal Thai Air Force, the Royal Malaysian Air Force and the Navy Research Center in China. He aimed at destroying all information and causing corruption in the systems before he left." He paid $500,000 bond, for temporary liberty, until August 18 when he begins serving sentence.

178 Afroz, Soobia (June 16, 2002). "Cyber terrorism — fact or fiction?

179

Cyber security By now, the term Cybersecurity should have begun to create its own meaning in your mind.

Cyber security are security standards which enable organizations to practice safe security techniques to minimize the number of successful cyber security attacks. These guides provide general outlines as well as specific techniques for implementing cyber security.

Cyber security standards have been created recently because sensitive information is now frequently stored on computers that are attached to the internet, phone calls, etcâ&#x20AC;Ś.

Also many tasks that were once done by hand are carried out by computer; therefore there is a need for Information Assurance (IA) and security. Cyber security is important to individuals because they need to guard against identity theft. Businesses also have a need for this security because they need to protect their trade secrets, proprietary information, and customerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s personal information. The government also has the need to secure their information. This is particularly critical since some terrorism acts are organized and facilitated by using the internet. One of the most widely used security standards today is ISO/IEC 27002 which started in 1995.

Cybersecurity, itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s positives and negatives, are the aim of this research.

Known Cyber attacks The following are some famous and important cyber attacks that will help us firmly grip the general idea of a cyber attack.

Terrorist attacks and theft The Estonia attacks: in May 2007 Estonia was subjected to a mass cyber-attack in the wake of the removal of a Russian World War II war memorial from downtown Talinn. The attack was a distributed denial-of-service attack in which selected sites were bombarded with traffic in order to force them offline; nearly all Estonian government ministry networks as well as two major Estonian bank networks were knocked offline; in addition, the political party website of Estonia's current Prime Minister Andrus Ansip featured a counterfeit letter of apology from Ansip for removing the memorial statue. Despite speculation that the attack had been coordinated by the Russian government, Estonia's defence minister admitted he had no evidence linking cyber attacks to Russian authorities.

Russia called accusations of its involvement "unfounded," and neither NATO nor European Commission experts were able to find any proof of official Russian government participation.180

180 BBC. 2008-01-25. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/7208511.stm. Retrieved 2008-02-23.

This is an example of cyber terrorism… although the if Russia was indeed involved, it would be considered the first known cyber-warfare in history…

The following example demonstrates the threats that endangers cyberspace when it comes to theft.

Kevin Poulsen when he gained access to the Internet’s predecessor, ARPANET. The network was still being developed and he exploited an existing loophole to temporarily gain complete control over the nationwide network. However, he became a real celebrity after his famous trick with LA’s KIIS FM radio, which brought him a brand-new Porsche, among other valuable items, and the fame of a “phone wiz”. The station was running a contest at that time and would give a posh sport ride to the 102th caller. Poulsen successfully hacked into the city’s phone system, seized control of all the lines, blocked all incoming calls and eventually made sure he was the lucky number 102. Indeed, almost all of his hacking coups have been carried out using regular telephone lines. Shortly after the Porsche trick, he reactivated old Yellow Page escort phone numbers for an acquaintance of his who ran a virtual agency. Despite his luck and conspiracy skills, Poulsen was arrested in a supermarket after a nation-wide raid and did five long years in prison…

Threats to the United States Cyber-defensive Surveillance and FISA (Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act) The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978 is an Act of Congress which prescribes procedures for the physical and electronic surveillance and collection of "foreign intelligence information" between "foreign powers" and "agents of foreign powers" (which may include American citizens and permanent residents suspected of being engaged in espionage and violating U.S. law on territory under United States control).181 The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act resulted from extensive investigations by Senate Committees into the legality of domestic intelligence activities. These investigations were led separately by Sam Ervin and Frank Church in 1978 as a response to President Richard Nixon’s usage of federal resources to spy on political and activist groups, which violates the Fourth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. The act was created to provide Judicial and congressional oversight of the government's covert surveillance activities of foreign entities and individuals in the United States, while maintaining the secrecy needed to protect national security.182 The Act came into public prominence in December 2005 181 50 U.S.C. ch.36, The complete text of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act 182 http://www.dailynexus.com/article.php?a=15892

following publication by the New York Times of an article that described a program of warrantless domestic wiretapping ordered by the Bush administration and carried out by the National Security Agency since 2002 (a subsequent Bloomberg article suggested that this may have already begun by June 2000). Many critics have asserted that the Administration's warrantless spying program is a violation of the Fourth Amendment to the United States Constitution against warrantless search and a criminal violation of FISA.183

Security of Cyber-systems and critical infrastructure Because about 85 percent of the nationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s critical infrastructure is owned by the private sector, the federal government cannot by itself protect the critical infrastructures. There are three broad categories of actions that the federal government can undertake to increase the usage of Cyber security technologies. First, the federal government can take steps to help critical infrastructures determine their cyber security needs, and hence their needs for cyber security technology. These actions include developing a national CIP plan, assisting infrastructure sectors with risk assessments, providing threat and vulnerability information to sector entities, enhancing information sharing by critical infrastructures, and promoting cyber-security awareness. These activities can help infrastructure entities determine their needs for cyber security technology.

This information can help the federal government to prioritize its actions and to assess the need to take further action to encourage the use of cyber security technology by critical infrastructure entities. Because the security needs of critical infrastructure could differ from the commercial enterprise needs of infrastructure entities, the federal government could assess the needs for grants, tax incentives, regulations, or other public policy tools to encourage non-federal entities to acquire and implement appropriate cyber security technologies.

Second, the federal government can take actions to protect its own systems, including parts of the critical infrastructure. These actions could lead others to emulate the federal government or could lead to the development and availability of more cyber security technology products.

Third, the federal government can take long-term actions to increase the quality and availability of cyber security technologies available in the marketplace.

183 "Bush Lets US Spy on Callers Without Courts" New York Times (Dec. 16, 2005)

Policy Options and Examples of Current or Planned Federal Activities to Improve Critical Infrastructure Cyber security: Policy Option

Description

Examples of federal activities

The plan could be used as a framework

According to HSPD-7, by December 2004, DHS is to produce a comprehensive and integrated plan for critical infrastructure protection that will outline national goals, objectives, milestones, and key initiatives.

for

Develop a national CIP plan

federal CIP activities. The plan should clearly define the roles and responsibilities of federal and non-federal CIP organizations, define objectives milestones, set time frames for achieving objectives, and establish performance measures.

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has provided funding to assist

Assist infrastructures with risk

Provide funding to sectors and sector entities to conduct risk assessments so that vulnerabilities, threats, and mitigation strategies can be identified.

Assessments

utilities for large drinking water systems in preparing vulnerability assessments.

The Department of Transportation has performed a vulnerability assessment of the surface transportation sector and of the sectorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s reliance on the Global Positioning System. HSPD-7 directs sector-specific agencies to conduct or facilitate vulnerability assessments in each sector.

increase the private sectorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s awareness of cyber threats and the need for cyber security

DHS gathers and disseminates information on

Provide threat and vulnerability information to critical infrastructures

technologies by improving the federal government’s capabilities to identify, analyze, and disseminate information about threats to and vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure sectors and their member entities.

threats to critical infrastructures and issues warning products in response to increases in the threat condition.

The Department of the Treasury has contracted with the Financial Services

Enhance information sharing by critical infrastructures

Increase the federal government’s and the private sector’s awareness of cyber threats and the effective implementation of technology by developing fully productive information sharing relationships within the federal government and between the federal government and state and local governments and the private sector.

ISAC to improve its capabilities so that it can better share information about threats and response strategies.

The InfraGard program provides the Federal Bureau of Investigation with a means for sharing information securely with individual members. EPA issued a $2 million grant to the Association of Metropolitan Water Agencies to help support the on-going efforts of the Water Information Sharing and Analysis Center, a

state-of-the-art, secure information system that shares up to-date threat and incident information between the intelligence community and the water sector.

Promote cyber security awareness

Ensure that the private sector is aware of the cyber security services that are provided by the federal government and the critical infrastructure sectors.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation has sponsored conferences with the financial services sector to make sector members aware of CIP-related services provided by the federal government and the private sector.

Promote the use of cyber security technologies and processes

Provide tax incentives or funding to sector entities to purchase cyber security technology to better protect, detect, or react to cyber attacks. The government could require the use of particular cyber security technologies or processes. This could also be accomplished through regulations.

This option requires the development of minimum standards for cyber security technology.

HSPD-7 instructs sectorspecific agencies to encourage risk management strategies to protect against and mitigate the effects of attacks against critical infrastructures.

In response to the Federal Information Security Management

Act (FISMA) of

Develop protocol and product standards for Cyber security technology and operational Develop standards and guidelines

Secure federal government systems

guidelines for the selection, implementation, and management of cyber security technologies. In addition, guidance could also be provided to critical infrastructure owners on how to perform risk assessments.

Implement appropriate management, operational, and technical controls to secure critical federal computer systems from cyber attacks. Critical infrastructure owners rely on federal computer systems to provide certain services.

2002, NIST is leading the development of key information system security standards and guidelines as part of its FISMA Implementation Project. NIST and NSA are using the Common Criteria to develop comprehensive security requirements and specifications for key technologies that will be used by the federal government.

The Defense Information Systems Agency (DISA) and NSA have also prepared implementation guides to help system administrators to configure their systems in a secure manner.

FISMA requires federal agencies to provide risk-based information security protections for their computer systems.

The National Strategy to Secure Cyberspace identifies the need to secure governmentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s cyberspace as one of its five priorities.

Procure secure products and services for the federal

Require sector entities to address cyber security needs prior to interacting with government computer systems. Impose security requirements in federal procurements of information technology.

The National Strategy to Secure Cyberspace states that the federal government is identifying ways to improve security in agency contracts and evaluating the overall procurement process as it

government

Foster cooperation with foreign countries regarding cyber attacks

relates to security.

Because cyber attacks may not originate in the United States and could cross several geopolitical boundaries, the cooperation of foreign countries is important to facilitate the tracing of cyber attacks and the apprehension of attackers.

The National Strategy to Secure Cyberspace states that the United States will actively foster international cooperation in investigating and prosecuting cyber crime.

HSPD-7 assigns the State Department this responsibility.

The Department of Justice has a

Develop cyber security education Programs

Teach the importance of cyber security and how to use information technology securely. Increase the number of trained computer security professionals.

Cyber ethics for Kids program that teaches students in elementary and middle schools about the risks of some online behaviour and ways to protect themselves from such behavior. NSF administers the Federal Cyber Service in universities to increase the number of cyber security professionals.

The Defense Advanced Research Projects

Fund the research and development of cyber security technology

Provide funding to research and develop new technologies.

Agency, DHS, NSF, NIST, and NSA have ongoing efforts to research and develop new cyber security technologies. CIP policy documents identify the further need to better prioritize and coordinate research efforts.

184

Security Vs. Liberty Are maintaining privacy and ensuring security conflicting, incompatible goals? High states of security for Internet communications may require limiting access to welldocumented individuals or organizations. Such documentation may itself invade individual privacy or organizational needs for confidentiality. After the 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States, many increased security measures were demanded. These included increased security inspections at airline check-in locations, better readiness for emergency response, and an overall increase in data gathering and surveillance of both citizens and immigrants.

Similar demands for new levels of attention to physical security, data protection, and user authentication are occurring for computer systems use. New expectations regarding data gathering and surveillance have been met with some resistance by both civil libertarians and the general public.

Similar dilemmas challenge organizations that seek to determine the extent to which employees should be monitored in the workplace and constrained on the job with increased security and strict privacy policies. There is no question that limiting access to a computer system increases the overall security of the system. There is also no question that gathering detailed information about computer users assists in identifying potential system saboteurs or criminals intent on taking advantage of unwary individuals. The trade-off, however, is that computer systems that are limited to a few users or generally difficult to access are not cost effective.

Policies dictating computer security measures must be strictly enforced for security efforts to be universally effective. For instance, rigorous control of passwords is a simple but effective first step in ensuring that only appropriate individuals can access systems.

Education of computer users regarding their responsibilities and the potential consequences of system compromise are also critical. Control of physical entry to computer servers and networking components is vital to ensure that only authorized personnel have access.

Security must be stringent so that computer systems are "trustworthy," or individuals and organizations will not use them. Computer security must be robust and seamless, thus guaranteeing a comfort level to ensure comprehensive and effective use.

In addition, there are many dangers in globally gathering data about individuals without their knowledge or permission. Any databases of personal information even remotely connected to the Internet must be secure against compromise. When computer security is breached, the professional and business credibility of the organization responsible for the compromised system drops rapidly. In addition to the quantifiable loss of digital assets, there is the potentially incalculable loss of future business income that might occur, and it 184 http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d04321.pdf (GAO, TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT Cyber Security for Critical Infrastructure Protection May 2004).

may be impossible to know what additional damages may occur over time. In cases where personal or corporate injury can be credibly alleged, legal action can result with damages awarded to plaintiffs.

The first wall of defence against Internet subterfuge or attack is enforcement of policies and procedures developed to ensure that system integrity is not compromised and personal privacy is protected.185

185 http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Privacy+vs.+cybersecurity:+the+advantages+of+doing+business+over+the+...a087454388

"Law and order exist for the purpose of establishing justice and when they fail in this purpose they become the dangerously structured dams that block the flow of social progress.â&#x20AC;?

Martin Luther king Jr.

Committee on the judiciary 2010 Chairlady: Hend Elsorr Vice chair: Yosr Hamza Ranking member: Rana Adel Party consultant: Moâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;men Mohamed Abbas

History of the Senate Committee on the Judiciary Established in 1816 as one of the original standing committees in the United States Senate, the Senate Committee on the Judiciary is one of the most influential committees in Congress. Its broad legislative jurisdiction has assured its primary role as a forum for the public discussion of social and constitutional issues. The Committee is also responsible for oversight of key activities of the executive branch, and is responsible for the initial stages of the confirmation process of all judicial nominations for the federal judiciary.186 The Chairmanship A total of 40 Senators have served as chairman of the Judiciary Committee.

The current chairman and ranking member: 1. Chairman Sen. Patrick Leahy [D-VT] 2. Ranking Member Sen. Jefferson Sessions [R-AL]187

MAC 2010: Committee on the Judiciary Committee on the Judiciary represents two dimensions; the first is a social dimension and the second is a legal one. The committee tends study the Human rights laws related to the U.S whether internally or externally, constitutional reform regarding rights and duties, highlighting the human rights issues and property and constitutional rights within the American society and the social, legal and political consequences of such reforms.

186 www.senate.gov 187 www.govtrack.us

The committee Jurisdiction includes: (1) Human rights laws and policies; (2) Enforcement and implementation of human rights laws; and (3) Judicial proceedings regarding intellectual property and human rights.

The committee can further discuss issues related to: oversight of Immigration, citizenship, and refugee laws; U.S. Customs and Border Protection, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Oversight of international migration, internally displaced persons.

Outline: Illegal immigration:         

  

The united states of America immigration history origin of illegal immigration definition of illegal immigration the process of becoming an illegal immigrant USA official immigration procedures and visa requirements Visa types Visa waiver program Current statistics about illegal immigrants Effects of illegal immigration I. Social effect a) Crime rate b) Education c) Health care II. Economic effect a) Job market b) Wages c) Taxes d) Mortgage crisis III. political effect harms to illegal immigrants proposed solutions the most important proposed bills related to immigration

Legalizing Marijuana:  war on drugs  initiative of Latin countries  what is marijuana?  production and trafficking  pros and cons of legalizing marijuana

I. pros: a) b) c) d) e) f)

  

liberty: people deserve freedom to use marijuana cost: keeping marijuana illegal is expensive failure: prohibition doesn’t help medical benefits hemp ( agricultural use) religious use

II. cons: a) biological and mental instability b) high prices c) increased addiction percentages statistical facts marijuana statistics marijuana vs. alcohol and tobacco I. alcohol II. tobacco  current situation

First topic: illegal immigration:

“America was indebted to immigration for her settlement and prosperity.”

James Madison 4th us president

Historical background about illegal immigration: “We should honor every legal immigrant here, working hard to become a new citizen, But we are also a nation of laws.”

President Bill Clinton, State of the Union Address, January 23, 1996 Illegal immigration has long been a problem in the United States, especially since the latter half of the twentieth century.

The origins of illegal immigration date to the late nineteenth century. In 1875, a federal law was passed which prohibited entry of convicts and prostitutes. In 1882 President Chester A. Arthur banned almost all Chinese immigration to the United States, and shortly thereafter barred paupers, criminals and the mentally ill from entering. Although this affected only a small percentage of immigrants, there were now distinctions between legal and illegal immigration.

Before this, immigration was barely regulated.

Ellis Island, the New York portal for immigrants, opened in 1892 and became the nation’s premier federal immigration station. New arrivals were required to prove their identities, answer a series of questions, find a friend or relative who could vouch for them, and were scanned for physical ailments. When it ended operation in 1954, Ellis Island had processed over 12 million legal immigrants.

During the large wave of immigration from 1881 to 1920, nearly 23½ million immigrants poured into the United States from all over the world. In 1921, Congress passed a Quota Law that reduced immigration to 357,000 a year and limited the number of immigrants from any one country. In 1924 immigration was reduced further to 160,000 a year, and in 1929, immigration was cut to 157,000 and quotas were again reset based on national origins in the 1920 U.S. Census. The rationale was that these laws would ensure the existing ethnic composition of the country and help assimilate the 15 million southern and eastern Europeans who had entered the previous forty years.

However, the door was left open for Mexicans (who even then were desired by employers for their cheap labor) and northern Europeans. As history would show, this legal immigration led to illegal immigration and foreshadowed today’s debate on these topics. During the 1920s illegal immigration was the subject of heated Congressional debates. Edward H. Dowell, vice-president of the California Federation of Labor, testified before the U.S. Senate Committee on Immigration in February of 1928 about the burden of the unrestricted flow of Mexicans on the state’s taxpayers, prisons, hospitals and American workers’ wages. He estimated that while 67,000 Mexicans entered the U.S. legally the prior year, many times that number entered illegally.

Immigration dropped sharply during the lean years of the Great Depression. After the stock market crashed in 1929, the U.S. tightened visa rules which markedly reduced Mexican immigration. Local, state and federal government officials debated what to do with those already here. Some Mexicans repatriated themselves either voluntarily or under pressure from local welfare officials. Others were deported. Eventually between about 500,000 to 1,000,000 Mexicans left the United States between 1929 and 1939. This was due to deportation, as well as other factors such as the threat of deportation and acute unemployment.

This repatriation began during President Herbert Hoover’s administration and reached its peak in the early 1930s. It also applied to all alien groups, not just Mexicans. Hoover believed they were taking jobs from Americans, and endorsed a vigorous effort to reduce legal and illegal entries and expel “undesirable aliens.” Deportations and repatriations of Mexicans and others decreased (along with legal immigration) during President Franklin Roosevelt’s administration, during the Great Depression, but did not end. In July 1935, for example, Roosevelt ordered a large deportation of alien criminals (such as mail robbers), but exempted Mexican and Canadian criminals due to the fear that they would sneak back in.

Today’s high level of illegal immigration originated during the war years of the early 1940s.

Labor shortages caused the federal government to set up a program to import Mexican laborers

to work temporarily in agriculture, primary in the Southwest. This was called the Bracero Program. The goal was to import foreign workers (originally thought to number in the hundreds) during agricultural harvest and then encourage them to go home.

Over the next two decades about 4.8 million Mexican workers came into the country and provided cheap labor to many U.S. employers. Although braceros were supposed to be hired only if an adequate number of Americans could not be found, employers preferred the foreign workers who were willing to work for lesser wages. The program finally ended in 1964 due to complaints from unions and Mexican-Americans that these foreigners were taking jobs from them. Not surprisingly, many of the former braceros reentered and worked in the U.S. illegally -- many for the same employers. Illegal immigration increased greatly during the years of the supposed “temporary work” Bracero Program.

During President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s first term, it was estimated that illegal Mexican border crossings had grown to about 1 million. Such a massive illegal workforce had a devastating impact on the wages of American workers. Eisenhower, concerned about corruption that resulted from the profits of illegal labor, took decisive action. In 1954 he appointed General Joseph Swing to head the Immigration and Naturalization Service. Shortly thereafter, “Operation Wetback” was launched. With only 1,075 Border Patrol agents, tens of thousands of illegal aliens were caught and sent back deep into Mexico. Hundreds of thousands more returned to their homeland voluntarily. Illegal immigration had dropped 95% by the end of the 1950s.

But it was not to last, as seen in prior decades, after the 1965 Immigration Act passed, while legal immigration increased sharply, illegal immigration rose right along with it. As the Center for Immigration Studies noted, this increased immigration in part because Congress “shifted the legal preference system to family relations and away from employment needs and immigrant ability.”

Many illegal aliens also use the lure of “birthright citizenship,” to circumvent U.S. immigration laws and gain permanent residency, if not citizenship.

This is a misinterpretation of the 14th Amendment to the Constitution that grants U.S. citizenship on those born on American soil, including children of illegal aliens. Illegal immigrants know that the odds are low that U.S. immigration authorities will deport them, if they have a child who is an American citizen (and who as a bonus also qualifies for taxpayer-funded benefits).

Since the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965, Congress has passed seven amnesties: 1. Immigration and Reform Control Act (IRCA), 1986: A blanket amnesty for over 2.7 million illegal aliens 2. Section 245(I) Amnesty, 1994: A temporary rolling amnesty for 578,000 illegal aliens

3. Section 245(I) Extension Amnesty, 1997: An extension of the rolling amnesty created in 1994 4. Nicaraguan Adjustment and Central American Relief Act (NACARA) Amnesty, 1997: An amnesty for close to one million illegal aliens from Central America 5. Haitian Refugee Immigration Fairness Act Amnesty (HRIFA), 1998: An amnesty for 125,000 illegal aliens from Haiti 6. Late Amnesty, 2000: An amnesty for some illegal aliens who claim they should have been amnestied under the 1986 IRCA amnesty, an estimated 400,000 illegal aliens 7. LIFE Act Amnesty, 2000: A reinstatement of the rolling Section 245(I) amnesty, an estimated 900,000 illegal aliens the largest of these amnesties was the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) which amnestied about 3 million illegal aliens. This law was supposed to be a compromise -- an attempt to finally limit illegal immigration through strengthened border security and increased immigration enforcement against employers -- combined with amnesty for the millions of illegal workers in the United States. Illegal immigrants who had resided in the U.S. for five years and met other conditions received temporary legal status, which could be later upgraded to citizenship.

President Ronald Reagan approved this “path to citizenship” amnesty due to what was believed to be a relatively small illegal immigrant population. Unlike many current politicians and amnesty proponents, Reagan called this what it was: amnesty. Unfortunately, there was widespread document fraud and the number of illegal aliens seeking amnesty far exceeded expectations. Most importantly, there was no political will to enforce the law against employers.

The 1986 IRCA amnesty failed and actually led to millions of more people entering the United States illegally.

While President Bill Clinton made some efforts to combat illegal immigration during the 1990s, the problem remained. In 1996 the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996 were passed. Still, leaders from Central American and Caribbean nations relied heavily on untaxed remittances sent back to their countries from the United States, and worried that Clinton would support mass deportations.

While at least paying lip service to enforcement of laws, Clinton assured these leaders that there would be no mass deportations. There were about 7 million illegal aliens residing in the U.S. when he left office.

The eight years of President George W. Bush’s administration saw a marked increase in illegal immigration and a drop in immigration enforcement throughout much of his tenure. For example, the number of illegal aliens arrested in workplace cases fell from nearly 3,000 in 1999 to 445 in 2003, with the number of criminal cases against employers during this period falling from 182 to four. Not surprisingly, by 2005, there were an estimated 10-20 million illegal aliens living in the United States. Even at the end of 2007 after the Bush administration’s enforcement

crackdown had been underway; only 92 criminal arrests of employers had taken place, in an economy that, according to the Washington Post, includes 6 million businesses that employ more than 7 million illegal foreign workers.

Despite the failure of past amnesties and the fact that these increase illegal immigration, Bush repeatedly pushed mass legalization (amnesty) schemes for illegal immigrants using the wellworn line that they “are doing jobs Americans will not” or “are not” doing. One scheme was the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act 2007 which was defeated by widespread popular opposition.

Today, over 1 million immigrants enter our country legally per year, while the illegal alien population grows by about 500,000 per year. Most of those who violate our borders and enter illegally come from Mexico and other Latin American countries. Only about 6 percent of the illegals come from Canada and Europe. Close to half of all illegal immigrants now residing in the U.S. did not enter illegally but rather overstayed their visas. Just as the federal government has historically failed to secure its borders, it has concurrently failed to closely monitor visa holders.

About 12-20 million illegal aliens currently reside in the United States. California has more illegals than any other state, at about 2.4 million. Others states with high illegal alien populations include Texas, Florida and New York, although many states are now impacted.

Americans of all backgrounds are still seriously concerned about the negative impact of illegal immigration, such as with the number of bankrupted hospitals, overcrowded schools, and increased crime. Taxpayers pay dearly for this, illustrating the high cost of so-called “cheap labor” for some unscrupulous employers and their political allies who for decades have watered down immigration laws. For example, in California alone, as of 2004 the net cost of illegal immigration to taxpayers is estimated to be nearly $9 billion annually.

Despite Americans’ opposition to illegal immigration and amnesty, open border advocates are pressuring President Barack Obama to pass yet another mass amnesty for illegal aliens. These special interests and their allies in the mainstream media continually attempt to re frame the debate away from the core issues (e.g., illegality, sovereignty, overpopulation, fiscal costs), and redefine the terms used in the debate. The most common euphemisms for amnesty used by the open-border lobby are: “comprehensive immigration reform,” “pathway to citizenship,” “earned legalization,” “guest” or “temporary worker plan,” and bringing “undocumented immigrants” “out of the shadows.” Citizens concerned about illegal immigration should also be aware that pro-illegal alien advocates often offer the false choice between either mass deportation or mass amnesty. They say that since we can’t “round up and deport 12 million people” we have to provide them with a “pathway to citizenship” (i.e. amnesty).

However, there is a common sense, humane and cost-effective way to solve the problem of illegal immigration, without resorting to either mass deportation or amnesty. This is called “attrition through enforcement” wherein if our existing immigration laws are consistently enforced and jobs cut off, the number of illegal aliens will return to their home countries over

time. This middle-ground strategy is endorsed by real immigration reform groups such as ALIPAC and NumbersUSA.188 Definition of illegal immigration: Illegal immigration (also referred to unauthorized or undocumented immigrants) refers to the migration of people across national borders in a way that violates the immigration laws of the destined country."189 The process of becoming an illegal immigrant: People become illegal immigrants in one of three ways: entering without authorization or inspection, staying beyond the authorized period after legal entry, or by violating the terms of legal entry Their mode of violation breaks down as follows: If the suspect entered legally without inspection, then the suspect would be classified as either a “Non-Immigrant Visa Overstayers” (4 to 5.5 million) or a “Border Crossing Card Violator” (250,000 to 500,000). If the suspect entered illegally without inspection, then the suspect is classified as having “Evaded the Immigration Inspectors and Border Patrol” (6 to 7 million). 190 

Illegal entry:

There are an estimated half million illegal entries into the United States each year.

A common means of border crossing is to hire professionals who smuggle illegal immigrants across the border for pay. Those operating on the US-Mexico border are known informally as "coyotes". 

Visa over stay:

A traveler is considered a "visa overstay" once he or she remains in the United States after the time of admission has expired. The time of admission varies greatly from traveler to traveler depending on what visa class into which they were admitted. Visa overstays tend to be somewhat more educated and better off financially than those who crossed the border illegally.

Visa overstays mostly enter with tourist or business visas.

In the year 1994, more than half of illegal immigrants were Visa overstayers whereas in 2006, about 45% of illegal immigrants were Visa overstayers.

188 http://www.endillegalimmigration.com/History_of_Illegal_Immigration_in_US/index.shtml 189 www.ProCon.org, Jan. 17, 2007 - Center for Media and Democracy , http://immigration.procon.org/viewanswers.asp? questionID=000756

190 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illegal_immigration_to_the_United_States#Becoming_illegal_immigrants



Visa fraud:

A common method of illegal immigration is visa fraud: obtaining a visa on false pretenses.

The most common form is a so-called "green card marriage", whereby a foreign national marries for purposes of avoiding immigration law, a crime in the United States, rather than to build a life together. These sham marriages offer the opportunity of a person who might otherwise not obtain a visa to obtain permanent residency, and potentially citizenship, by 191 .virtue of laws allowing spouses of citizens and permanent residents to obtain visas USA Official Immigration Procedures and visa requirements: U.S. immigration law is complex, and successful immigration to the United States can sometimes take a decade or more. The procedure for immigrating to the United States varies according to the basis of immigration (U.S. citizen relatives, for example, or employment in the United States). Regardless of the basis for immigration, however, some procedures are common to all immigration petitions. 

Initial Petition

Aspiring immigrants will have to fill out a petition that can be downloaded from the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service (USCIS) website (see Resources below) to establish basic eligibility for immigration. Those being sponsored by a relative who is a U.S. citizen or permanent resident will need to have the relative complete USCIS Form I-130. Those being sponsored by a U.S. employer will need to have the employer complete USCIS Form I-140. The USCIS Form G-325 (Biographical Information) also will need to be completed in most cases. 

Good Character

Applicants will need to submit police reports from every place they have lived for at least one year since they turned 16. If they have no criminal record, the police will need to issue a statement verifying this. They will not necessarily be denied entry to the United States if they have a criminal record--it depends on the severity of the offense and the number of offenses. 

Medical Examination

191 "Modes of Entry for the Illegal Immigrant Population" (PDF). Pew Hispanic Center. May 29, 2006.

http://pewhispanic.org/files/factsheets/19.pdf.

Applicants will have to have a medical examination conducted by a USCIS-approved clinic in their home country, and the doctor will have to fill out USCIS Form I-693. If they have any chronic communicable disease (HIV, for example), they may be denied entry to the United States. ď&#x201A;ˇ

Proof of Financial Resources

To enter the United States for immigration purposes, applicants will have to establish that they will not become destitute while in the United States. If they are being sponsored for immigration by an employer, this should serve as sufficient evidence. Otherwise, they will either have to prove that they have sufficient personal assets or will have to find a U.S. citizen or permanent resident to guarantee their support in case they become destitute. This is accomplished by having their sponsor complete USCIS Form I-864 (in certain cases other forms are used). There are limitations on who can sponsor them--in most cases their sponsor must be a relative. ď&#x201A;ˇ

Embassy Paperwork

Once the USCIS approves their immigration petitions, applicants will need to appear at the nearest U.S. embassy or consulate (listed in their initial immigration petition from Section 1 above). They must bring their passport and certain other documents listed on the website of that particular embassy or consulate (birth and marriage certificates, for example). They will have to complete Form DS-230, Form DS-156 and, if they are a male between the ages of 16 and 55, Form DS-157 (these can all be downloaded from the website of the U.S. State Department; see Resources below). Their U.S. visa will be stamped onto their passport. U.S. immigration authorities retain the right to deny them entry to the United States even with a valid visa, if they determine that the applicants are ineligible for entry for some reason. They will be fingerprinted and photographed. Once they make it through immigration, however, they will be entitled to enter and remain in the United States.192 Visa types: A visa to the United States can be granted on either an immigrant or a non-immigrant basis. In all cases, the applicant is required to satisfy the pre-mentioned requirements before the visa will be granted. Here are also some types of the granted visas:

ď&#x201A;ˇ

Tourist Visas

The tourist visa is granted to individuals who wish to visit the United States for the purposes of travel. To be granted this visa, the applicant is required to prove the intent to leave the United States at the conclusion of the visit. Proof of ties to another country, such as a letter from an employer or mortgage statement, is necessary.

192 ehow.com http://www.ehow.com/about_5393284_usa-official-immigration-procedures.html



Work Visas

There is a number of configurations of work visas. Generally, work visas require that the U.S. employer apply on behalf of the prospective employee, and it must be shown that the position cannot be filled by a U.S. worker. 

Student Visas

A student visa requires that the student be enrolled in an accredited course and have the funds to pay for living expenses and tuition while in the United States. These visas are valid for the length of the course of study, plus a small grace period.



Fiancée Visas

K-1 fiancée visas require that the couple is not yet married, is free to marry, has met in person and has a bona fide relationship, as well as the intent to settle in the United States permanently. The requirements for this visa include financial sponsorship, in the form of a sponsor who makes a minimum of 125% of the current poverty guidelines for his family size. 

Spousal Visas

A spousal visa requires that a genuine, legally recognized marriage has taken place in person.

This type of visa also requires a financial sponsor who makes at least 125% of the current national poverty guideline for her family size.193

Visa Waiver Program The Visa Waiver Program enables citizens of 35 countries to travel to the United States for tourism or business for stays of 90 days or less without obtaining a visa. The program was established in 1986 with the objective of promoting better relations between the United States and its allies, eliminating unnecessary barriers to travel, stimulating the tourism industry, and permitting the Department of State to focus consular resources in other areas. Visa Waiver eligible travelers may continue to apply for a United States Visa if they prefer, but it is not required for stays up to 90 days. Under the Visa Waiver Program there are passport requirements and eligibility requirements that must both be fulfilled. Since January 12, 2009 the Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA) has been a new pre-departure requirement for all visa waiver travelers. ESTA is not a visa but an authorization to travel to the United States and ask for admission to enter. An approved travel authorization (ESTA) does not guaranty entry. The Visa 193 ehow.com http://www.ehow.com/facts_5498150_requirements-usa-visa.html

Waiver Program Information Guide offers a comprehensive, detailed, and easy to understand guide so that you can successfully travel to the United States under the Visa Waiver Program.

ESTA IS NOW REQUIRED FOR AIR AND SEA TRAVEL The Department of Homeland Security has implemented the Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA). The purpose of ESTA is to pre-screen all travelers who intent to enter the United States under the Visa Waiver Program. Individuals from non Visa Waiver countries cannot use the ESTA service but must obtain a visitor visa in advance. ESTA is not a visa requirement, it is a travel requirement.

Travelers to the United States are encouraged to register themselves online as soon as possible. It is not necessary to have purchased a ticket or made a hotel booking in advance. Once the traveler has completed the Travel Authorization registration, he or she will get an instant result indicating whether the they are allowed to travel to the United States or not. A Travel Authorization is valid for 2 years at the time unless the passport expires earlier.

January 12, 2009: All travelers under the Visa Waiver Program must pre-register with ESTA before entering the United States via air or sea. Travelers without an accepted Travel Authorization will not be allowed to board any airplanes or sea carriers that are U.S. bound.

Any person traveling on the Visa Waiver Program must present a machine readable passport or an e-passport depending on the citizenship. A person from a Visa Waiver Country having a nonmachine readable passport must apply for a visitor visa in advance.

Visa Waiver Program Eligibility Requirements: Not all citizens of Visa Waiver countries are eligible to enter the United States Visa-free under the Visa Waiver Program. Some applicants might be required to apply for a B-1 Business Visa or a B-2 Tourist Visa in order to visit the United States. Additional information can be found in the Visa Waiver information guide. 194 Current statistics about illegal immigrants: The Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) estimates that in 2007 the illegal immigrant population is above 13 million persons. Government and academic estimates indicate that as of 2006 there were 11 to 12 million illegal immigrants living in the United States.

The Center for Immigration Studies estimated the illegal immigrant population at 10 million as of November 2004.

It is difficult to have an exact figure because the illegal nature of their presence prevents any enumeration, but the U.S. Census Bureau estimated 8.7 million illegal immigrants were here in

194 usimmigrationsupport.org http://www.usimmigrationsupport.org/visa_waiver.html

2000, and immigration officials estimate that the illegal immigrant population grows by as many as 500,000 every year.195 Effects of illegal immigration: 1. Social effect: 1. Crime rate: Undoubtedly the most salient questions involve the issue of whether immigration increases crime. It is difficult to draw any strong conclusions on the association between immigration and crime.

One of the opinions sees that almost all of what is known about immigration and crime is from information on those in prison. Incarceration rates do not necessarily reflect differences in current crime rates. A few of the other reasons also cited for why the extent of illegal immigrants' criminal activities is unknown are as follows:196 

For many minor crimes, especially crimes involving juveniles, those who are detained are not arrested. And only a fraction of those who are arrested are ever brought to the courts for disposition.



We lack comprehensive information on whether arrested or jailed immigrants are illegal immigrants, non immigrants, or legal immigrants. Such information can be difficult to collect because immigrants may have a reason to provide false statements (if they reply that they are an illegal immigrant, they can be deported, for instance). And the verification of these data is troublesome because it requires matching INS records with individuals who often lack documentation or present false documents.



Noncitizens may have had fewer years residing in the United States than citizens, and thus less time in which to commit crimes and be apprehended

William F. McDonald, PhD, Professor of Sociology and Anthropology and Co-Director of the Institute of Criminal Law and Procedure at Georgetown University Law Center, in a July 12, 2006 testimony in front of the U.S. Senate Committee on the Judiciary hearing entitled "Examining the Need for Comprehensive Immigration Reform, Part II," stated: “there is little reason to believe that the findings would be substantially different for illegal immigrants assuming data were available that would allow us to make the necessary statistical controls for age, sex, economic status and immigrant status. Public fears about immigrant criminality have 197 ".usually not been born out by research 195 http://www.fairus.org/site/News2?page=NewsArticle&id=16859&security=1601&news_iv_ctrl=1007 196http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illegal_immigration_to_the_United_States#Crimes_committed_by_illegal immigrants 197 http://immigration.procon.org/viewanswers.asp?questionID=000782

On the other hand, others see that a relationship between illegal immigration and border crime might be expected for three reasons: illegal immigrants commit more crime; illegal immigrants are more likely to be victimized by crime; and/or illegal immigrants use smugglers whom commit more crime.198 Immigration brings more people into the country, and unless this process is counter balanced by“ emigration, the absolute volume of crime will very likely increase “as mentioned in the book (The Immigration Debate Studies on the Economic, Demographic, and Fiscal Effects of 199 .Immigration) by James P. Smith and Barry Edmonston It was also mentioned in the book is that a further complication in assessing the involvement of immigrants in crime is that immigrants may not be treated the same as citizens in the criminal .justice system

Figure 1-it shows the Number and ratio of immigrants to population in the United States, 1820– 1993 and New York City homicide rates, 1800–1993.

198 Pia M. Orrenius and Roberto Coronado-(The Effect of Illegal Immigration and Border Enforcement on Crime Rates along the U.S.-Mexico Border)- The Center for Comparative Immigration Studies, University of California, San DiegoDecember 2005-p.5-http://www.ccis-ucsd.org/PUBLICATIONS/wrkg131.pdf James P. Smith and Barry Edmonston-(The Immigration Debate Studies on the Economic, Demographic, and Fiscal Effects 199 of Immigration)-Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education (CBASSE)- (1998)-p.368http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=5985&page=369

The Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR), in a Mar. 2007 website article entitled "Illegal Aliens and Crime Incidence," offered the following: “Their presence in the United States is based on their either illegally entering the country or entering under false pretenses. Those who sneak into the country undergo no form of screening for criminality or any other grounds for 200 "...exclusion... illegal aliens... end up being co-opted into criminal activity 

:The supporters of this opinion believe in this relation relying on the following reasons Immigrants are likely possible to be involved in some sort of crimes compared to citizens as (drug importation, theft, organized crime, etc...)



It may be that illegal immigrants, rather than those in the country with proper permission, are highly involved in crime, either because legal means are not available for the financial support, or because those immigrants came to the country specifically to engage in crime.



It might be the case that the costs of controlling crime, in terms of the criminal justice system costs, are disproportionately associated with immigration-either because of high crime rate among immigrants or because of the enforcement costs of controlling illegal immigration.

Another study, by the immigrant-advocacy group, Immigration Policy Center, based on U.S. Census Bureau data, found that large increases in illegal immigration do not result in a rise in crime.

On August 6, 2008, an audit done by agents of Immigration and Customs Enforcement found that 137 of the 637 jail inmates in the Lake County, Illinois jail were illegal immigrants.

According to Lake County sheriff Mark Curran, illegal immigrants were charged with half of the 14 murders in the county.201 Famous criminologists such as Sutherland and Sellin further argued that in some circumstances some national groups might bring increased risks for particular kinds of crime. Similarly, they noted that no single nationality grouping displayed the same level of involvement across all types of crime. These same types of crime are, usually, characteristic of the home countries also.

Italians in America have a low rate of arrest for drunkenness, and drunkenness is comparatively rare in Italy. The traditions of the home country are transplanted to the host country and determine the relative positions of the immigrant groups to the types of crime.202 200 http://immigration.procon.org/viewanswers.asp?questionID=000782 201Ibid,http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illegal_immigration_to_the_United_States#Crimes_committed_by_illegal_im migrants

Ibid, James P. Smith and Barry Edmonston-(The Immigration Debate Studies on the Economic, Demographic, and Fiscal 202 Effects of Immigration)-Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education (CBASSE)(1998)-p.368-http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=5985&page=369

In apparent contrast with this view, Shaw and McKay argued that, although immigrants came to North America with differing national propensities to crime, the disorganizing forces of poverty in the centers of American cities where immigrants most often settled tended to produce a convergence in their involvements in crime.

Types of crimes they are most likely to be involved in: It is very obvious according to some statistics and researches that the illegal immigrants in the United States of America are probably involved in identity theft, drug smuggling, gang violence, environment and national security and terrorism crimes.

2. Illegal immigrants and education: Americans are tired of paying school and other taxes that support illegal immigrants and their families. But the cost of not educating the children of undocumented aliens could, in the end, be far greater.

Americans have mixed feelings about immigrants these days. When it comes to children, the feelings become even more mixed. The issues surrounding the education of illegal immigrant children are social, political, moral, and economic. They involve each of us as community members and taxpayers, and also as employers and colleagues. Education is the largest public cost associated with illegal immigration, and it's likely to have long-term consequences. Whether we like it or not, these children will probably remain in the U.S. and become adults who either contribute to the economy or do not.

Many legal immigrants to the US are highly educated â&#x20AC;&#x201C; something that is highly desired in an immigrant. In contrast, most illegal aliens are very poorly educated. The average education levels for Mexican fathers, a large component of the illegal alien population, and their U.S.-born children are at the bottom of the educational spectrum. 203 Uneducated immigrants, regardless of heritage or ethnicity, who have little interest in education, generally end up with poorly educated children. While the averages are already bad, the education gap between Mexican and non-Mexican natives is far larger than the simple averages would indicate.

203 http://www.usillegalaliens.com/impacts_of_illegal_immigration_education.html

Importing Poverty: Immigration and Poverty in the United States: A Book of Charts While the costs of educating children of illegal immigrants are crushing the primary and secondary school budgets, many institutions of higher education are competing to get illegal immigrants. As noted in a recruiting seminar, helping Undocumented Students Navigate the College Pipeline: The poor education level of illegal aliens dooms most to poverty level jobs in the USA and prevents them from climbing the economic ladder of success. This factor has related social costs that are enormous â&#x20AC;&#x201C; a subject covered in following sections.

However, the direct cost of educating the children of illegal aliens is somewhere between $29 and $35 BILLION dollars a year. You can add in another billion or two for the costs of supplemental feeding programs and other welfare benefits administered through the schools but which are off the "education costs" in the school budgets.

Most illegal aliens are working in lower paying jobs are often sharing houses and apartments with other families. Most pay little or no state or federal income taxes, because they have low incomes and frugal lifestyles. The local and state taxes illegal aliens pay, comes no where near paying for the education costs of their children. The difference is picked up by the Taxpaying public. Since many localities fund public schools through real estate taxes, this often means escalating taxes which put an enormous burden on elderly home owners living on fixed incomes.

3. Health care: The illegal immigration affects many aspects of American life and wounds the healthcare system in a unique and very powerful sense in the newly changing landscape of the 21st century America.

Not as highly advertised however is the fight from hospitals and healthcare providers which see illegal immigration not only as a strain for their business but also as a crippling disease on the US healthcare system as a whole.

Under the Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act of 1985 (EMTALA), all American hospitals must provide emergency medical treatment to any who may come to their facility (Cosman). This includes those who are uninsured, are not citizens, and cannot pay. While the government obliges the hospitals to treat these patients, no refunding of their unpaid services must ever occur under the bills duties. In other words, hospitals must give unpaid services to their communities, without any guarantee of repayment by a government facility that made it do so. Although a very sensible idea (it is unethical for hospitals to deny care to an uninsured gunshot victim), certain areas of the nation have become overwhelmed by an abuse of this system. As a prime example, between 1993 and present day, over 60 hospitals have closed down in the state of California due to the surge in critical care given to those without insurance, mainly illegal immigrants (WND). While some may blame this simply on business fluctuations, since hospitals are usually run by private firms, one cannot deny a problem in the system when many of these closed hospitals reported no payment for over 50% of their services. To combat this, the US government gave California emergency hospitals approximately $72 million annually to care for illegal immigrants, for which many have praised the system (Darmiento). However, when one looks at the number of hospitals the $72 million suddenly does not become nearly as much as it may seem in the beginning since it is for all California hospitals, and not only one. The figure goes down even further when it is estimated that illegal immigrants cost the state of California approximately $10.5 billion every year (Longley). As was mentioned earlier though, emergency medical services cannot be denied under any circumstance under penalty of stiff fines from the federal government for breaking EMTALA ground rules. With approximately 10,000 immigrants crossing over to the US each day, one can now observe how easily hospitals in border states can be sunk into debt due to not being paid for medical services.

After observing the losses that American hospitals are taking, one can see why many are choosing to raise prices of their services to those who are able to pay i.e. legal US residents.

Surveys have given a $1.1 billion figure to what American citizens have to pay for the care of illegal immigrants in the nation (Larubia). However, legal residence soon becomes a problem when nativity to American soil comes into question. By this it is meant that a growing trend of immigration before delivering a baby which automatically becomes a citizen through the 14th amendment. Commonly referred to as an anchor child, the newborn citizen allows the rest of the illegal family to stay in the US and thereby receive healthcare benefits usually left to those who were legally supposed to receive them (i.e. American taxpayers). Another issue that many have given light to is the fact that illegal immigrants bring with them diseases which have been relatively wiped out by the American healthcare system.

Strains of tuberculosis and malaria, which have been controlled well inside the borders of the US have now spiked up again in southern states due to illegal immigrants bringing them along anywhere from Mexico to Argentina. Because of this, millions must be poured into helping cure these uninsured individuals from diseases which are normally taken care of when they are young children or infants. This sense of disease hysteria is being used by many interest groups on

Capital hill to press for further regulation of healthcare given to those without proper documentation and eventual deportation.

After observing different angles of argument from natives to the illegal immigrants themselves, it can be seen that the American healthcare system is quite distinct from other issues such as job security and education, yet at the same time it is connected to the larger goal of all three. Unless politics can change the constitution or even build a permanent fence across the southern border, healthcare providers will have to work with or without funds to care for the future of this country by helping all citizens and non-citizens within the American borders. As they following medical protocol to improve the life and well-being of those that come into their doors, hospitals must be supported in their quest to aide this new wave of immigration. In the spirit of how this nation was formed, a small sacrifice now will hopefully work to pave the way for a new generation of immigrant children who are legal American residents and who pay taxes to help make their new nation grow and prosper even more. 204 2. Economic effects: 1. The job market: With an official unemployment rate of 9.5 percent, American workers now face the worst job market in 25 years.205 In fact, over the past 60 years; the unemployment rate has rarely been as high as it is today. Despite a difficult job market, President Obama and leaders in Congress are talking about passing so-called “comprehensive immigration reform” legislation. This legislation would give amnesty to 12 million or more illegal aliens, including an estimated 8.3 million illegal aliens who hold jobs they never should have had, and could include a proposed new guest-worker provision to import hundreds of thousands of additional foreign workers.206 If enacted, illegal aliens would be allowed to keep these jobs instead of making them available to American citizens and legal immigrants who are out of work. Congress has a responsibility to ensure that the law that requires available jobs to be filled by legal workers is respected.

Consideration of amnesty, particularly in these harsh economic times, constitutes a failure by Congress to live up to its basic responsibilities to the American people.

American workers are struggling. The number of available jobs continues to shrink. Today, 14.7 million Americans are out of work and looking for a job and millions more are in temporary parttime jobs while they look for permanent jobs.207 at the same time, it is estimated that 8.3 million illegal aliens are part of the American workforce despite not being legally authorized to work in the United States. Earlier this month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that 467,000 jobs were lost in the month of June alone. In just the past year, 5.8 million jobs have been lost.

204 http://ww2.jhu.edu/hurj/issue7/focus-draoua.html

205 http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm 206 http://pewhispanic.org/files/reports/107.pdf

207 Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), “Employment Situation Summary,” April 3, 2009, http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

American Unemployment Data:

June 2007

Unemployment Number of Unemployed Change in Unemployment Rate from Prior Year

4.6 percent 7.0 million -0.1 percent

vs.

June 2009 9.5 percent 14.7 million +3.7 percent208

These numbers translate to a significantly higher number of Americans who are out of work today than were in 2007 (7.7 million more Americans) and suggests that America simply does not need more foreign workers, whether through amnesty, legalization or a guest-worker program. In fact, real enforcement and a reduction in immigration levels would ensure that America restores the integrity of its labor market which would increase wages and free jobs for American workers.

2. Wages: Do illegal immigrants affect the amount of wages?! Well, Wharton management professor Peter Cappelli and Vernon M. Briggs Jr., professor in the School of Industrial and Labor Relations at Cornell University in Ithaca, N.Y., are firm in their conviction that illegal workers exert downward pressure on wages and reduce job opportunities for low-skill U.S. citizens. Briggs believe that the negative impact of undocumented workers on American low-skill workers and on labor standards is so great that immigration authorities should clamp down on employers who hire illgals so that a clear message is sent to current and potential illegal workers: Illegal immigration will not be tolerated.

However, Bernard Anderson, practice professor in Wharton's management department and an assistant secretary of labor for employment standards during the Clinton administration, says that while illegal workers do have some effect on wages and displace some American workers, their impact is not huge far less onerous than Cappelli and Briggs assert. In addition, Anderson says, illegal immigrants work hard, do not come to the United States to receive welfare, and should be allowed to remain in the U.S. after paying penalties.

It is often said by supporters of illegal, low-skill immigrants that the U.S. economy needs such laborers because they do the kinds of work that Americans will not do. But Cappelli calls that assertion a "complete myth." Immigrants have been hired to do such jobs in such large numbers, 208 Bureau of Labor Statistics, â&#x20AC;&#x153;Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey,â&#x20AC;? http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsatabs.htm

not because Americans refuse them, but because Americans are not willing to perform such tasks where the wages are lower than they would otherwise be where work rules may not exist and where the working conditions may be hazardous. Many employers seek illegal workers for the simple reason that it keeps costs down and means the companies do not have to invest in equipment and other capital improvements. Relative wage levels for low-skill and unskilled American workers, according to Cappelli, have plummeted over the past generation and show no signs of rising.209

3. Taxes: A report that found that illegal immigrants in the United States cost the federal government more than $10 billion a year -- a sum it estimated would almost triple if they were given amnesty -has drawn criticism from immigration advocacy groups.

For its report, the Center for Immigration Studies, a Washington-based group that advocates tougher immigration policies, used Census Bureau figures to compare the revenue that illegal immigrants contribute through taxes with the cost of government services they use.

"Households headed by illegal aliens imposed more than $26.3 billion in costs on the federal government in 2002 and paid only $16 billion in taxes, creating a net fiscal deficit of $10.4 billion, or $2,700 per illegal household," said Steven A. Camarota, author of the study.

The costs outlined in the report include government services such as Medicaid, medical treatment for the uninsured, food assistance programs, the federal prison and court systems, and federal aid to schools.

The study acknowledged that, on average, the costs that illegal-immigrant households bear on the federal government are less than half that of other households and that many of those costs relate to their U.S.-born children. It also pointed out that tax payments by illegal-immigrant households constitute one-fourth those of other households because of low-income jobs.

"With nearly two-thirds of illegal aliens lacking a high school degree, the primary reason they create a fiscal deficit is their low education levels and resulting low incomes and tax payments, not their legal status or heavy use of most social services," Camarota said.

The report estimates that granting legal status to illegal immigrants would dramatically increase their cost, causing the net fiscal deficit to rise to nearly $29 billion because, the author argues, unskilled immigrants would have access to more government services while continuing to make modest tax payments.

209 http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=1482

Camarota concluded in his report that the fiscal impact could be lessened only by stringently enforcing immigration laws, a view that drew criticism from some immigration specialists and advocacy groups that also accused him of not coming up with constructive recommendations.

"Implied within this study's findings is the sense that if these people could suddenly be made to disappear, the federal government would be $10 billion to the plus, and that is almost certainly not true once you look at the numbers," Jeffrey S. Passel, a demographer at the Urban Institute, said in an interview.

"Should you charge up to undocumented aliens the cost of small-business loans that they don't get or the cost of civil litigation, among other things? This report does that," he said.

Frank Sharry, director of the National Immigration Forum, an immigrant advocacy group, took issue with the report's treatment of illegal immigrants' U.S.-born children, who are American citizens.

"The costs of the children of immigrants are accounted for [in the report], but not their contributions to the economy as workers and taxpayers," he said in a written statement, adding that the report's conclusions were not helpful to the debate on immigration reform.

"There is a growing consensus in both political parties that our immigration system needs to be comprehensively reformed," Sharry said. "Our current system of haphazard laws, spotty enforcement, border chaos and unfair restrictions needs to be replaced by a regulatory regime that makes immigration safe, legal and orderly." 210 But there is another argument defending illegal immigrantsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; rights in their access to social benefits as they are paying taxes.

Illegal immigrants are paying taxes to Uncle Sam, experts agree. Just how much they pay is hard to determine because the federal government doesn't fully tally it. But the latest figures available indicate it will amount to billions of dollars in federal income, Social Security and Medicare taxes this year. One rough estimate puts the amount of Social Security taxes alone at around $9 billion per year.

Paycheck withholding collects much of the federal tax from illegal workers, just as it does for legal workers.

The Internal Revenue Service (is a bureau of the Department of the Treasury and one of the world's most efficient tax administrators. In 2004, the IRS collected more than $2 trillion in revenue and processed more than 224 million tax returns.)211doesn't track a worker's immigration status, yet many illegal immigrants fearful of deportation won't risk the government attention 210 Mary Fitzgerald, Washington Post Staff Writer,â&#x20AC;? Illegal Immigrants' Cost to Government Studiedâ&#x20AC;?,washingtonpost, Thursday, August 26, 2004; Page A21, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/articles/A33783-2004Aug25.html

that will come from filing a return even if they might qualify for a refund. Economist William Ford of Middle Tennessee State University says there are no firm figures on how many taxpayers are in that situation.

"The real question is how many of them pay more than they owe. There are undoubtedly hundreds of thousands of people in that situation," Ford said.

But some illegal immigrants choose to file taxes and write a check come April 15, using an alternative to the Social Security number offered by the IRS so it can collect income tax from foreign workers.

"It's a mistake to think that no illegal immigrants pay taxes. They definitely do," said Martha Pantoja, who has been helping Hispanic immigrants this tax season as an IRS-certified volunteer tax preparer for the nonprofit Nashville Wealth Building Coalition.

Among those she has assisted is Eric Jimenez, a self-employed handyman who has worked in Nashville for several years. He feels obliged to pay taxes â&#x20AC;&#x201D; even though, as Pantoja said, "nothing would happen" to him if he did not.

"I have an idea, a mentality, that to be a good citizen you have to pay taxes," he said. "Also, I'm conscious of the fact that the money we pay in taxes supports the schools and all the public services."

The Social Security Administration estimates that about three-quarters of illegal workers pay taxes that contribute to the overall solvency of Social Security and Medicare.

The agency estimates that for 2005, the last year for which figures are available, about $9 billion in taxes was paid on about $75 billion in wages from people who filed W2 forms with incorrect or mismatched data, which would include illegal immigrants who drew paychecks under fake names and Social Security numbers.

Spokesman Mark Hinkle says Social Security does not know how much of the $9 billion can be attributed to illegal immigrants. The number is certainly not 100 percent, but a significant portion probably comes from taxes paid by illegal immigrants.

Nine billion dollars sounds like a lot of money, and it is, but it is only about 1.5 percent of the total $593 billion paid into Social Security in 2005.

The impact on Social Security is significant, though, because most of that money is never claimed by the people who pay it but instead helps cover retirement checks to legal workers.

Federal law prohibits paying Social Security to illegal immigrants, but the administration factors in both legal and illegal immigration when projecting the trust fund's long-term solvency.

211 www.irs.gov

This is especially important as the 78 million-member baby boom generation begins to leave the work force and draw Social Security checks.

"Overall, any type of immigration is a net positive to Social Security. The more people working and paying into the system, the better," Hinkle said. "It does help the system remain solvent."

The Social Security Administration drew from census and Immigration and Customs Enforcement data in 2007 to project the effects of higher and lower immigration patterns.

If net immigration is high at 1.3 million people a year, the SSA's combined trust fund would be exhausted in 2043. But the fund runs out four years earlier if annual net immigration amounts to about half that — 472,500 legal immigrants and 250,000 illegal immigrants.

The Internal Revenue Service doesn't have an estimate of how many illegal immigrants pay income tax.

But one indicator is the 9 million W-2 forms with mismatched names and Social Security numbers it received in 2004. The IRS said the W-2 forms with invalid Social Security numbers reported about $53 billion in wages and about three-fourths of that, $40 billion in wages, had taxes withheld.

The IRS also has been issuing Individual Taxpayer Identification Numbers, or ITINs, for 12 years to foreigners without a Social Security number. It's believed that many workers who seek the ITINs are in the country illegally, and the IRS reported that there were 2.5 million tax returns filed with an ITIN in 2004.

In 2006, then IRS Commission Mark Everson told Congress that "many illegal aliens, utilizing ITINs, have been reporting tax liability to the tune of almost $50 billion from 1996 to 2003."212 What is an ITIN? An Individual Taxpayer Identification Number (ITIN) is a tax processing number issued by the Internal Revenue Service. It is a nine-digit number that always begins with the number 9 and has a 7 or 8 in the fourth digit, example 9XX-7X-XXXX. IRS issues ITINs to individuals who are required to have a U.S. taxpayer identification number but who do not have, and are not eligible to obtain a Social Security Number (SSN) from the Social Security Administration (SSA).

ITINs are issued regardless of immigration status because both resident and nonresident aliens may have U.S. tax return and payment responsibilities under the Internal Revenue Code.

Individuals must have a filing requirement and file a valid federal income tax return to receive an ITIN, unless they meet an exception.

Examples of individuals who need ITINs include: 

Non-resident alien filing a U.S. tax return and not eligible for a SSN

212 The Associated Press, “at tax time “illegal immigrants” are paying too”, Tennessee, April 10, 2008, www.maldef.org.



U.S. resident alien (based on days present in the United States) filing a U.S. tax return and not eligible for a SSN



Dependent or spouse of a U.S. citizen/resident alien



Dependent or spouse of a non-resident alien visa holder 213

The Social Security and Medicare taxes from mismatched W2s for the same period was $41.4 billion, Hinkle said.

That adds up to roughly $90 billion in federal taxes during they eight-year period.

The IRS defends the ITIN system, despite criticism that some illegal immigrants have used it to open bank accounts, get mortgages and establish a record of residency and taxpaying they hope might someday lead to legal status.

"The ITIN program is bringing taxpayers into the system," Everson told Congress.

Middle Tennessee State’s Ford, who has studied taxes and immigration, says a majority of economists agree that illegal immigrants are a net benefit for the U.S. economy.

He said the tax contributions from illegal immigrants, including sales taxes, property taxes and excise taxes (such as the gas tax), are significant.

He calculates that illegal immigrants contributed $428 billion dollars to the nation's $13.6 trillion gross domestic product in 2006. That number assumes illegal immigrants are 30 percent less productive than other workers.

"If anything we need more immigrants coming into the country, not less, especially with the baby boomers retiring," he said.214 d) Mortgage crisis: Despite unending attempts to step the flow of illegal immigration to the United States through an increasingly militarized border, the mortgage lending industry was not about to pass up the chance to capitalize on the estimated 12 million illegal immigrants in the United States looking for their own slice of the American dream.

When banks and non-banks, particularly those in the US, ran out of risk-free clients they moved on to riskier and riskier customers. Hence, the ninja loan, the sub-prime mess and the turmoil we have today.

213 Op-cit, www.irs.gov.

214 Op-cit, The Associated Press, “at tax time “illegal immigrants” are paying too”, Tennessee, April 10, 2008, www.maldef.org. p 17

Enter the "ITIN Mortgage." During the expansion of the housing bubble, many lenders offered home-mortgage loans to undocumented immigrants without requiring Social Security numbers.

While lenders used to require a Social Security number and verified income, those requirements obviously changed during the loose lending days. Indeed, if lenders were willing to lend money to legal residents through "NINJA" loans .It is a loan offered to potential homebuyers who have No Income, No Job, and No Assets, why not lend to people who are not even legal residents of the United States?

As the lending industry loosened, lenders began allowing illegal foreign nationals to use a taxpayer identification number ("ITIN") to qualify for a mortgage. The IRS issues ITINs to both resident and nonresident aliens so they can pay taxes. Obviously, the U.S. Government is not going to pass up a chance to collect taxes from undocumented residents. According to the Government Accounting Office, a significant number of the nearly 9 million holders of ITINs are illegal immigrants.

Tim Sandos, President and Chief Executive of the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals estimates that since 2000, illegal immigrants have taken out more than $1 Billion in ITIN mortgages. Interestingly, as National Public Radio recently reported, ITIN mortgages have on average out performed conventional mortgages. In part this is due to borrowers putting 20-30% down on a mortgage. More than can be said of most borrowers today. Amazingly, it has been reported that ITIN mortgages have had a delinquency rate of one half of one percent, compared to 6.4% for all home loans.

Indeed, Tim Sandos, when he worked for Citigroup received death threats because he was working with illegal immigrants. In 2007, Representative John T. Doolittle of California introduced a bill in Congress that would prohibit financial institutions from providing home mortgages to anyone who lacks a Social Security number. The bill, H.R. 480, would have amended the Truth in Lending Act to make ITIN mortgage lending illegal. 215

215 Michael Fleishman, â&#x20AC;&#x153;Illegal Immigrants and the American Dreamâ&#x20AC;?, Posted on November 6, 2008

Tucson land use law blog

From a Reuterâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s article dated Jan 30, 2008 if congress fails to recognize the substantial role illegal immigration has played in the current financial crisis they will only continue to make the same disastrous mistakes in the future. But for the sake of fairness, the whole financial crisis can not only be blamed on illegal immigrants alone. The loose lending strategies applied by the American banks contributed to the problem as well.

3. Political effects: The distribution of the US House of representatives is definitely affected by the immigrants present within the boarders in different states. Apportionment is based on each states total population including illegal aliens and other non-citizens relative to the rest of the country. This report examines the redistribution of seats caused by immigration. To measure the specific impact of illegal immigration we rely on state estimates prepared by the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS), which indicate that almost seven million illegal aliens were counted in the 2000 Census. The report shows that many low-immigration states that might seem unaffected by immigration are in fact experiencing a significant erosion of their political influence in Washington.

Among the reports findings: ď&#x201A;ˇ The presence of illegal aliens in other states caused Indiana, Michigan, and Mississippi to each lose one seat in the House in 2000, while Montana failed to gain a seat it otherwise would have. ď&#x201A;ˇ

Illegal immigration not only redistributes seats in the House, it has the same effect on presidential elections because the Electoral College is based on the size of congressional delegations.



The presence of all non-citizens in the Census redistributed a total of nine seats. The term "non-citizens" includes illegal aliens, legal immigrants, and temporary visitors, mainly foreign students and guest workers. In addition to the four states that lost a seat due to the presence of illegal aliens, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Kentucky, and Utah each had one fewer seat than they otherwise would have.



None of the states that lost a seat due to non-citizens is declining in population. The population of the four states that lost seats due to illegal immigration increased 1.6 million in the 1990s, while the population of the five states that lost seats because of other non-citizens grew by two million.

The political costs to American citizens are clearly something to consider when debating immigration policy. To measure the political effect of immigration, we removed illegals, noncitizens, or the entire foreign-born population from each state’s population and then recalculated the allocation of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Immigration redistributes seats because the foreign-born population is so large and so concentrated � two-thirds live in just six states. While some may be tempted to suggest excluding illegals or other non-citizens from apportionment, doing so is administratively impractical and would likely encounter fierce opposition from high-immigration states. It would also require years of litigation to determine its constitutionality. Alternatively, enforcing immigration law and reducing legal immigration would significantly lessen the problem of U.S. citizens losing political representation.

Apportioning Seats Article 1 Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution mandates that a census be taken every 10 years expressly for the purpose of apportioning seats in the House of Representatives. However, the Constitution does not specify the method for apportionment, or how the population to be apportioned should be composed.

The apportionment population of a state is defined to include a state’s resident population plus all the state’s military and civilian personnel of the federal government and their dependents who are abroad on April 1 of the census year. The resident population is comprised of all persons counted in the census, including those legal immigrants (citizen and non-citizen) and illegal aliens who either mail their Census form back or whose presence in the United States was recorded by a Census Bureau employee in an interview. A person is considered to be a state resident if he or she meets the Census definition of "usual residence" (i.e., he or she has "no other permanent place to stay" or lives in a particular location "most of the time"). The inclusion of illegal aliens is probably the most controversial part of the apportionment population. 216

Harms faced by illegal immigrants 1. Human trafficking : 

Prostitution :

The Coalition against Trafficking in Women has reported scores of cases where women were forced to prostitute themselves. “Trafficking in women plagues the United States as much as it does underdeveloped nations. Organized prostitution networks have migrated from metropolitan 216 http://www.cis.org/articles/2003/back1403.pdf

areas to small cities and suburbs. Women trafficked to the United States have been forced to have sex with 400-500 men to pay off $40,000 in debt for their passage.” At least 45,000 Central American children attempt to illegally immigrate to the United States every year and many of them finish in brothels as sex slaves, according to Manuel Capellin, director in Honduras of the humanitarian organization House Alliance. 

Children abuse:

It happens when children are being forced to work to afford their living and get out of schools at an early stage.

It should be mentioned that children are widely used to be sold for pornography issues, online slavery issues and adoption. Some people argue that adoption sometimes is being a good choice for the child as a chance to a better life, while some argue that those children are sometimes taken away from their parents without their knowledge and being sold -on internet and by other means- by organized networks just working on such purposes, and even if they are taken under their consent for adoption option, it wouldn’t have happened if the parents would have be offered a good chance with higher wages to afford a better living standard for the family.  Slavery: Indian, Russian, Thai, and Chinese women have been reportedly brought to the United States under false pretenses. “As many as 50,000 people are illicitly trafficked into the United States annually, according to a 1999 CIA study. Once here, they're forced to work as prostitutes, sweatshop laborers, farmhands, and servants in private homes.” US authorities call it “a modern form of slavery.”

2. Death : There are significant dangers associated with illegal immigration including potential death when crossing the border. Since the implementation of Operation Gatekeeper immigrants have chosen more dangerous routes to get into the country. Most deaths are due to dehydration caused by the intense heats of the Arizona desert and the treacherous desert roads. Deaths also occur while resisting arrest. Death by exposure has been reported in the deserts, particularly during the hot summer season. “Exposure to the elements” encompasses hypothermia, dehydration, heat strokes, drowning, and suffocation. Also, illegal immigrants may die or be injured when they attempt to avoid law enforcement. Martinez points out that engaging in high speed pursuits while attempting to escape arrest can lead to death 3. Violence and other harms: According to the US Border Agency, there were 987 assaults on US Border Agents in 2008 and there were a total of 12 people killed by agents in 2007 and 2008.

Furthermore, Amnesty International has taken concern regarding the excessive brutality inflicted upon illegal immigrants the organization states that its main concerns are: 

Numerous evidence and reports detailing cruel and excessive force by Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) in which victims were “subjected to cruel, inhuman or

degrading treatment, including beatings, sexual assault, denial of medical attention, and denial of food, water and warmth for long periods” 

Lack of legal representation and advice when brought to court, especially illegal immigrant children are given no rights to a lawyer



The rapid branching of INS to increase security around border patrol but no such increase in the Office of the Inspector General, which conducts investigations of complaints.

Proposed solutions Securing our borders The STRIVE Act increases enforcement personnel on the border. It also requires a thorough evaluation of information-sharing, international and federal-state-local coordination, technology, anti-smuggling, and other border security initiatives to ensure that we are doing everything possible to bolster border security. The Gutierrez-Flake bill also calls for the development of multilateral partnerships to establish a North American security perimeter and improve border security on the Mexican southern border.

Strengthening interior enforcement The Gutierrez-Flake bill increases penalties for crimes committed by immigrants, including those related to smuggling and gang activities. The legislation includes provisions to combat passport and visa fraud, and it increases penalties for trafficking in fake documents. The bill also stiffens penalties related to illegal immigration.

Bolstering employment verification The STRIVE Act sets up an employment verification system whereby employers would be required to confirm each potential employee’s eligibility to work. The new system would eventually apply to all workers and all new hires, and would be rolled out in phases, beginning with critical infrastructure employers and large employers. The legislation increases penalties against employers who do not comply with the new system.

New worker program that reflects realities of our workforce The Gutierrez-Flake bill sets up a new worker program for low-skilled workers, when a U.S.

worker cannot be found to fill a needed job. It addresses the failures and problems with past worker programs and charts a new course that better protects workers, while more effectively and efficiently meeting the needs of employers. The program mandates strong workplace protections. In addition, employers would be required to provide foreign workers with the same wages and working conditions enjoyed by U.S. workers. Workers also would have the ability to change jobs and eventually get on a path to citizenship, if they choose. The worker visa would be valid for 3 years and renewable once.

Reforming a broken visa system in a way that protects families The STRIVE Act overhauls the family-based and employment-based immigration system to reduce backlogs and inefficiencies. The legislation provides opportunities for high skilled workers to come to, and remain in, the U.S. It also addresses employment needs in shortage occupations, such as nursing.

Earned legalization for hardworking, deserving individuals Under the legislation, undocumented workers, who pay a fine and pass extensive and thorough background examinations, would be eligible for conditional status with work and travel authorization for 6 years. If, during those six years, the worker remains employed, continues to be an upstanding member of the community, learns English and civics, and pays any owed taxes, they could be eligible to adjust their status if they leave the country and re-enter legally.

The Gutierrez-Flake bill also includes the DREAM Act and AgJobs, as introduced in the 110th Congress.217

ď&#x201A;ˇ

The most important proposed bills related to immigration:

:DREAM ACT

2001-2009

The Development, Relief and Education for Alien Minors Act latest version of the bill introduced on March 26, 2009, has the following :requirements 217 http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x491246



Had arrived in the U.S. before their 16th birthday;



Had lived in the U.S. for at least the last 5 years;



Had graduated from U.S. high school or obtained an American G.E.D.;



Serve in the military or attend college for at least two years; and



Have good moral character218 219

:Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2007 S. 1348



S.1639 would have created a new class of visa, the "Z visa", that would be given to everyone who was living without a valid visa in the United States on Jan. 1, 2008; this visa would give its holder the legal right to remain in the United States for the rest of their lives, and access to a Social Security number. After eight years, the holder of a Z visa would be eligible for a United States Permanent Resident Card (a "green card") if they wanted to have one; they would first have to pay a $2000 fine, and back taxes for some of the period in which they worked. By the normal rules of green cards, five years after that the illegal immigrant could begin the process of becoming a U.S. citizen.



S.1639 would have required such an illegal immigrant to be in his or her home country when he or she applies for a green card.



S.1639 would have also ended family reunification, in which an immigrant who becomes a U.S. citizen can ease the process by which their relatives from outside the country can get green cards.

Under the bill, only the spouse and children of a new citizen would be made eligible for green cards.



S.1639 would eliminate the employer-sponsored component of the immigration system and replace it with a point-based "merit" system. Points would be awarded by the USCIS adjudicating officers for a combination of education, job skills, family connections and English proficiency. Sponsorship of a U.S. employer would not be required although additional points would

218 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DREAM_Act 219 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Immigration_Reform_Act_of_2007

2007

be awarded if a U.S. job offer was available. The labor certification process would also be eliminated. Several familybased immigration categories would also be folded into the point system. Points-based systems are already used for admitting skilled immigrants in the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada and other developed countries. ď&#x201A;ˇ Guest worker program Another new category of visa, the "Y visa", would have been created, that would let temporary guest workers stay in the country for two years, after which they would have to return home. The original bill set this program at 400,000 people a year. However, its scope was greatly reduced by two amendments passed by the Senate: the first, sponsored by Senator Jeff Bingaman, reduced the number of entrants to 200,000 a year; the second, sponsored by Senator Byron Dorgan, set the program to only run for five years. ď&#x201A;ˇ Increased enforcement The bill would have increased enforcement of the United States-Mexico border, including increasing the number of border patrol agents to 20,000 and adding another 370 miles (600 km) of fencing, among others.

The bill would have also created a new program, the "Employment Eligibility Verification System", that would be a central database meant to hold immigrant-status information on all workers living in the United States. Eventually all employers, regardless of size of the company, would have been required to assemble this information and keep the system updated on all their employees.

Under the terms of the bill, no further part of the bill would have gone forward until these measures had been implemented.

Second topic: drug policy :Legalizing marijuana War on drugs?!

Everyone has a stake in ending the war on drugs. Whether you’re a parent concerned about protecting children from drug-related harm, a social justice advocate worried about racially disproportionate incarceration rates, an environmentalist seeking to protect the Amazon rainforest or a fiscally conservative taxpayer you have a stake in ending the drug war. U.S. federal, state and local governments have spent hundreds of billions of dollars trying to make America “drug-free.” Yet heroin, cocaine, methamphetamine and other illicit drugs are cheaper, purer and easier to get than ever before.

The United States is now the world's largest jailer, nearly half a million people are behind bars on drug charges - more than all of Western Europe (with a bigger population) incarcerates for all offenses. Roughly 1.5 million people are arrested each year for drug law violations - 40% of them just for marijuana possession. People suffering from cancer, AIDS and other debilitating illnesses are regularly denied access to their medicine or even arrested and prosecuted for using medical marijuana.

The war on drugs has become a war on families, a war on public health and a war on our constitutional rights. Many of the problems the drug war purports to resolve are in fact caused by the drug war itself. So-called “drug-related” crime is a direct result of drug prohibition's distortion of immutable laws of supply and demand. Drug abuse is bad, but the drug war is worse.220 History of the war on drug: A timeline: 1600-1890s Domestic production of hemp encouraged American production of hemp was encouraged by the government in the 17th century for the production of rope, sails, and clothing. Marijuana is the dried flowers that come from Cannabis sativa and Cannabis indica plants. Cannabis sativa is usually used to produce hemp. It has longer fibers (than Cannabis indica) that are preferred for hemp use.

In 1619 the Virginia Assembly passed legislation requiring every farmer to grow hemp. Hemp was allowed to be exchanged as legal tender in Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Maryland.

Domestic production flourished until after the Civil War, when imports and other domestic materials replaced hemp for many purposes. In the late nineteenth century, marijuana became a popular ingredient in many medicinal products and was sold openly in public pharmacies.

During the 19th century, hashish use became a fad in France and also, to some extent, in the U.S. 1906 220 www.drugpolicy.org, http://www.drugpolicy.org/drugwar/

Pure Food and Drug Act Required labeling of any cannabis contained in over-the-counter remedies.

1900-20s Mexican immigrants introduce recreational use of marijuana leaf After the Mexican Revolution of 1910, Mexican immigrants flooded into the U.S., introducing to American culture the recreational use of marijuana.

The drug became associated with the immigrants, and the fear and prejudice about the Spanish speaking newcomers became associated with marijuana. Anti-drug campaigners warned against the encroaching Marijuana Menace, and terrible crimes were attributed to marijuana and the Mexicans who used it.

1930s Fear of marijuana During the Great Depression, massive unemployment increased public resentment and fear of Mexican immigrants, escalating public and governmental concern about the problem of marijuana.

This instigated a flurry of research which linked the use of marijuana with violence, crime and other socially deviant behaviors, primarily committed by racially inferior or underclass communities. By 1931, 29 states had outlawed marijuana.

1930 Creation of the Federal Bureau of Narcotics (FBN) Harry J. Anslinger was the first Commissioner of the FBN and remained in that post until 1962.

1932 Uniform State Narcotic Act Concern about the rising use of marijuana and research linking its use with crime and other social problems created pressure on the federal government to take action.

Rather than promoting federal legislation, the Federal Bureau of Narcotics strongly encouraged state governments to accept responsibility for control of the problem by adopting the Uniform State Narcotic Act.

1936 Reefer Madness Propaganda film Reefer Madness was produced by the French director, Louis Gasnier.

The Motion Pictures Association of America, composed of the major Hollywood studios, banned the showing of any narcotics in films.

1937 Marijuana Tax Act After a lurid national propaganda campaign against the evil weed, Congress passed the Marijuana Tax Act. The statute effectively criminalized marijuana; restricting possession of the drug to individuals who paid an excise tax for certain authorized medical and industrial uses.

1944 La Guardia Report finds marijuana less dangerous New York Academy of Medicine issued an extensively researched report declaring that, contrary to earlier research and popular belief, use of marijuana did not induce violence, insanity or sex crimes, or lead to addiction or other drug use.

1940s Hemp for Victory During World War II, imports of hemp and other materials crucial for producing marine cordage, parachutes, and other military necessities became scarce.

In response the U.S. Department of Agriculture launched its Hemp for Victory program, encouraging farmers to plant hemp by giving out seeds and granting draft deferments to those who would stay home and grow hemp. By 1943 American farmers registered in the program harvested 375,000 acres of hemp.

1951-56 Stricter Sentencing Laws Enactment of federal laws (Boggs Act, 1952; Narcotics Control Act, 1956) which set mandatory sentences for drug-related offenses, including marijuana.

A first-offense marijuana possession carried a minimum sentence of 2-10 years with a fine of up to $20,000.

1960s Marijuana use popular in counterculture A changing political and cultural climate was reflected in more lenient attitudes towards marijuana. Use of the drug became widespread in the white upper middle class.

Reports commissioned by Presidents Kennedy and Johnson found that marijuana use did not induce violence nor lead to use of heavier drugs. Policy towards marijuana began to involve considerations of treatment as well as criminal penalties.

1968 Creation of the Bureau of Narcotics and Dangerous Drugs This was a merger of FBN and the Bureau of Dangerous Drugs of the Food and Drug Administration.

1970 Repeal of most mandatory minimum sentences Congress repealed most of the mandatory penalties for drug-related offenses. It was widely acknowledged that the mandatory minimum sentences of the 1950s had done nothing to eliminate the drug culture that embraced marijuana use throughout the 60s, and that the minimum sentences imposed were often unduly harsh.

Marijuana differentiated from other drugs The Comprehensive Drug Abuse Prevention and Control Act categorized marijuana separately from other narcotics and eliminated mandatory federal sentences for possession of small amounts.

National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML) founded 1972 Shafer Commission The bipartisan Shafer Commission, appointed by President Nixon at the direction of Congress, considered laws regarding marijuana and determined that personal use of marijuana should be decriminalized.

Nixon rejected the recommendation, but over the course of the 1970s, eleven states decriminalized marijuana and most others reduced their penalties.

1973 Creation of the US Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) Merger of the Bureau of Narcotics and Dangerous Drugs (BNND) and the Office of Drug Abuse Law Enforcement (ODALE).

1976 Beginning of parents' movement against marijuana A nationwide movement emerged of conservative parents' groups lobbying for stricter regulation of marijuana and the prevention of drug use by teenagers.

Some of these groups became quite powerful and, with the support of the DEA and the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA), were instrumental in affecting public attitudes which led to the 1980s War on Drugs.

1986 Anti-Drug Abuse Act - Mandatory Sentences President Reagan signed the Anti-Drug Abuse Act, instituting mandatory sentences for drugrelated crimes.

In conjunction with the Comprehensive Crime Control Act of 1984, the new law raised federal penalties for marijuana possession and dealing, basing the penalties on the amount of the drug involved. Possession of 100 marijuana plants received the same penalty as possession of 100 grams of heroin.

A later amendment to the Anti-Drug Abuse Act established three strikes and you're out policy, requiring life sentences for repeat drug offenders, and providing for the death penalty for drug kingpins.

1989 Bush's War on Drugs President George Bush declares a new War on Drugs in a nationally televised speech.

1996 Medical Use Legalized in California California voters passed Proposition 215 allowing for the sale and medical use of marijuana for patients with AIDS, cancer, and other serious and painful diseases. This law stands in tension with federal laws prohibiting possession of marijuana.221 2006: Authorities announce the discovery of the longest cross-border tunnel in U.S. history, the work of what they call a well-organized and well-financed drug-smuggling group. The half-mile long tunnel links a warehouse in Tijuana, where about two tons of marijuana were seized, to a warehouse in the United States, where 200 pounds of the drug were found.

When and why was marijuana outlawed?

The first state marijuana prohibition law was passed in California in 1913.After that Utah outlawed marijuana in 1914. Marijuana was outlawed in 30 states by 1930.

In the southwestern states, marijuana was outlawed because of racial prejudice against the Mexicans who used it. As one Texas legislator said, "All Mexicans are crazy and this stuff (marijuana) is what makes them crazy."

221http://www.a1b2c3.com/drugs/mj005.htm

In the other states, it was outlawed because of fears that heroin addiction would lead to the use of marijuana - exactly the opposite of the modern "gateway" myth.

Marijuana was outlawed at the national level in the US by the Marihuana Tax Act of 1937. 222 The new trend: The Obama administration new trend wants to banish the idea that the U.S. is fighting "a war on drugs," a move that would underscore a shift favoring treatment over incarceration in trying to reduce illicit drug use.

In his first interview since being confirmed to head the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy, Gil Kerlikowske said "Regardless of how you try to explain to people it's a 'war on drugs' or a 'war on a product,' people see a war as a war on them," he said. "We're not at war with people in this country."

Mr. Kerlikowske's comments are a signal that the Obama administration is set to follow a more moderate -- and likely more controversial -- stance on the nation's drug problems. Prior administrations talked about pushing treatment and reducing demand while continuing to focus primarily on a tough criminal-justice approach.

The Obama administration is likely to deal with drugs as a matter of public health rather than criminal justice alone, with treatment's role growing relative to incarceration, Mr. Kerlikowske said.223 Initiative of Latin countries: On the 25th of March -- Secretary of State Hillary Clinton traveled to Mexico saying that decades of U.S. anti-narcotics policies have been a failure and have contributed to the explosion of drug violence south of the border.

"Clearly what we've been doing has not worked," Clinton told reporters on her plane at the start of her two-day trip, saying that U.S. policies on curbing drug use, narcotics shipments and the flow of guns have been ineffective. 224 "Our insatiable demand for illegal drugs fuels the drug trade," she added. "Our inability to prevent weapons from being illegally smuggled across the border to arm these criminals causes the deaths of police, of soldiers and civilians."

Clinton appeared to go further than any senior government official in recent years in accepting a U.S. role in the long-contentious issue of the Latin American narcotics trade. In the past, U.S. politicians have accused Mexico, the main gateway for cocaine, heroin and other drugs entering the United States, of not doing enough.

The question revolves about the initiative that some of the Latin countries, including Mexico, took towards the legalization of some drugs to be lawful under the law, how effective this 222 www.marijuanabusinessnews.com, http://www.druglibrary.org/Schaffer/LIBRARY/mj_outlawed.htm

223 Gary Fields,â&#x20AC;? White House Czar Calls for End to War on Drugsâ&#x20AC;?, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Washington, MAY 14, 2009 224 Clinton U_S_ Drug Policies Failed, Fueled Mexico's Drug War - washingtonpost_com.mht

governmental drug policy would be, and how far would it be applicable in the United States of America.

Mexico decriminalized small amounts of marijuana, cocaine and heroin, a move that prosecutors say makes sense even in the midst of the government's grueling battle against drug traffickers.

Prosecutors said the new law sets clear limits that keep Mexico's corruption-prone police from extorting casual users and offers addicts free treatment to keep growing domestic drug use in check.

"This is not legalization, this is regulating the issue and giving citizens greater legal certainty," said Bernardo Espino Del Castillo of the attorney general's office.

The new law sets out maximum "personal use" amounts for drugs. People detained with those quantities no longer face criminal prosecution.

Espino Del Castillo says, in practice, small users almost never did face charges anyway. Under the previous law, the possession of any amount of drugs was punishable by stiff jail sentences, but there was leeway for addicts caught with smaller amounts.

"We couldn't charge somebody who was in possession of a dose of a drug, there was no way ... because the person would claim they were an addict," he said.

Despite the provisions, police sometimes hauled in suspects and demanded bribes, threatening long jail sentences if people did not pay "The bad thing was that it was left up to the discretion of the detective, and it could open the door to corruption or extortion," Espino del Castillo said.

Anyone caught with drug amounts under the new personal-use limit will be encouraged to seek treatment, and for those caught a third time treatment is mandatory.

The maximum amount of marijuana for "personal use" under the new law is 5 grams â&#x20AC;&#x201D; the equivalent of about four joints. The limit is a half gram for cocaine, the equivalent of about 4 "lines." For other drugs, the limits are 50 milligrams of heroin, 40 milligrams for methamphetamine and 0.015 milligrams for LSD. Mexico has emphasized the need to differentiate drug addicts and casual users from the violent traffickers whose turf battles have contributed to the deaths of more than 11,000 people since President Felipe Calderon took office in late 2006.225 But one expert saw potential for conflict under the new law.

Javier Oliva, a political scientist at Mexico's National Autonomous University, said the new law posed "a serious contradiction" for the Calderon administration.

"If they decriminalize drugs it could lead the army, which has been given the task of combating this, to say 'What are we doing'?" he said.

Officials said the legal changes could help the government focus more on big-time traffickers.

Espino del Castillo said since Calderon took office, there have been over 15,000 police searches related to small-scale drug dealing or possession, with 95,000 people detained â&#x20AC;&#x201D; but only 12 to 15 percent of whom were ever charged with anything.

What is Marijuana?

Marijuana is a green, brown, or gray mixture of dried, shredded leaves, stems, seeds, and flowers of the hemp plant (Cannabis sativa). Cannabis is a term that refers to marijuana and other drugs

225 The Associated Press Mexico decriminalizes small-scale drug possession.mht

made from the same plant. Other forms of cannabis include sinsemilla, hashish, and hash oil. All forms of cannabis are mind-altering (psychoactive) drugs.

The main active chemical in marijuana is THC (delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol). Short-term effects of marijuana use include problems with memory and learning, distorted perception, difficulty in thinking and problem solving, loss of coordination, increased heart rate, and anxiety.

Marijuana is usually smoked as a cigarette (called a joint) or in a pipe or bong. Marijuana has also appeared in blunts, which are cigars that have been emptied of tobacco and refilled with marijuana, sometimes in combination with another drug, such as crack. It can also be mixed into foods or used to brew a tea.226 Production & Trafficking: The threat associated with marijuana trafficking and abuse is rising, which is largely the result of a growing demand for high-potency marijuana and a related increase in the drug's availability.

An increase in domestic cannabis cultivation by drug trafficking organizations contributes to this threat, particularly the recent expansion of cultivation operations by Mexican, Asian and Cuban organizations.

Most foreign-source marijuana smuggled into the United States enters through or between points of entry at the U.S.-Mexico border. During 2006, 1,115,710 kilograms of marijuana were seized along the Southwest Border. Cannabis cultivation in Mexico remains high and most of the marijuana produced in that country is destined for U.S. drug markets.

Domestic Cannabis Eradication/Suppression Program (DCE/SP) data indicate that a total of 5,231,658 marijuana plants were seized in the U.S. during 2006. This is up from 4,209,086 plants seized during 2005. The recent increases in cannabis cultivation and marijuana production within the United States coincide with the continued flow of marijuana from foreign sources, which may lead to market saturation in major markets. This saturation could reduce the price of the drug significantly.

According to combined 2002, 2003 and 2004 NSDUH data, more than three fourths (78.2%) of the past year marijuana users aged 18 to 25 bought their most recently used marijuana from a friend. The majority (56.0%) of past year marijuana users aged 18 to 25 bought their most recently used marijuana inside a home, apartment or dormitory.227

Pros and cons of legalizing marijuana: 1) Pros: 226 http://www.whitehousedrugpolicy.gov/DrugFact/marijuana/marijuana_ff.html#go1 227 Ibid

a. Liberty: people deserve freedom to use marijuana: The first and most basic reason that marijuana should be legal is that there is no good reason for it not to be legal. Some people ask 'why should marijuana be legalized?" but we should ask "Why should marijuana be illegal?" From a philosophical point of view, individuals deserve the right to make choices for themselves. The government only has a right to limit those choices if the individual's actions endanger someone else. This does not apply to marijuana, since the individual who chooses to use marijuana does so according to his or her own free will. The government also may have a right to limit individual actions if the actions pose a significant threat to the individual. But this argument does not logically apply to marijuana because marijuana is far less dangerous than some drugs which are legal, such as alcohol and tobacco.228 b. Cost: keeping marijuana illegal is expensive: The second important reason that marijuana should be legal is that it would save our government lots of money. In the United States, all levels of government (federal, state, and local authorities) participate in the "War on Drugs." We currently spend billions of dollars every year to chase peaceful people who happen to like to get high. These people get locked up in prison and the taxpayers have to foot the bill. We have to pay for food, housing, health care, attorney fees, court costs, and other expenses to lock these people up. This is extremely expensive! We could save billions of dollars every year as a nation if we stop wasting money locking people up for having marijuana. In addition, if marijuana were legal, the government would be able to collect taxes on it, and would have a lot more money to pay for effective drug education programs and other important causes.229 There are many factors to be considered when keeping marijuana illegal: 

cost of active law enforcement



cost of prosecution (and defense!) of accused offenders



cost of incarceration of convicted offenders



hundreds of millions of dollars in tax revenue that would be generated if drugs were legal and taxed



cost of foster care and social services for children of incarcerated offenders



Sources to consider

228 http://www.mjlegal.org/essayspeech.html 229 Ibid

o

Citizens against Government Waste recently released through, a special report documenting the Office of National Drug Control Policy ‫’آ‬s waste of government resources.

o

New Report Projects $10-14 Billion Annual Savings and Revenues from Marijuana Regulation: Leading economists would prefer a system "in which marijuana is legal but taxed and regulated like other goods." Harvard Economics professor Jeffrey Miron concludes that marijuana legalization would create approximately $14 billion in benefits every year.

o

British Columbia's Marijuana Crop Worth Over $7 Billion Annually: according to a recent study by The Fraser Institute, the marijuana industry in British Colombia generates billions of dollars in revenue every year. This is a potential source of significant tax revenue to fund programs for health and education, but governments can't tax marijuana if it is illegal.

o

US Marijuana Crop Estimated to Be Worth Over $35 Billion. A new statistical analysis indicates that marijuana is America's most valuable cash crop. If these figures are even close to the truth, a logical system to regulate and tax marijuana would produce billions of dollars in revenue every year. Instead, our government stubbornly insists on keeping marijuana illegal and wasting billions of tax dollars enforcing prohibition.

o

Washington State would save about $105 million a year if marijuana were legally regulated, according to University of Washington Economics professor Dick Startz.

o

The US Federal Government Spends More Than $12 Billion Per Year on Drug Control Programs. Federal drug control budgets do not separate spending by drug, so we there is not a precise figure available for the amount that is spent on marijuana alone. Also, these figures do not include any spending by state or local governments, which are likely to be substantial since state police, courts, and prisons are constantly busy dealing with marijuana offenses.

Michael Hess of BBS News estimates that marijuana prohibition in the U.S. costs at least $7 billion per year, not including misdemeanor cases. 230 c. Failure: prohibition doesn't help: The third major reason that marijuana should be legal is because prohibition does not help the country in any way, and causes a lot of problems. There is no good evidence that prohibition decreases drug use, and there are several theories that suggest prohibition might actually increase drug use (i.e. the "forbidden fruit" effect, and easier accessibility for youth). One unintended 230 http://www.mjlegal.org/essayspeech.html

effect of marijuana prohibition is that marijuana is very popular in American high schools. Why? Because it is available. You don't have to be 21 to buy marijuana -- marijuana dealers usually don't care how old you are as long as you have money. It is actually easier for many high school students to obtain marijuana than it is for them to obtain alcohol, because alcohol is legal and therefore regulated to keep it away from kids. If our goal is to reduce drug consumption, then we should focus on open and honest programs to educate youth, regulation to keep drugs away from kids, and treatment programs for people with drug problems. But the current prohibition scheme does not allow such reasonable approaches to marijuana; instead we are stuck with 'DARE' police officers spreading lies about drugs in schools, and policies that result in jail time rather than treatment for people with drug problems. We tried prohibition with alcohol, and that failed miserably. We should be able to learn our lesson and stop repeating the same mistake.231 d. Medical benefits: One of the cited advantages of medical marijuana is the fact that it can help manage pain felt by trauma patients, cancer patients and patients experiencing nerve damage. Marijuana has an active chemical component called tetrahydrocannabinol or THC, which can act as an analgesic that helps patients relax and deal with the pain.

Another benefit that scientists have found in medical marijuana is that it can help prevent the worsening of Alzheimerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s disease among the elderly. According to studies, THC in marijuana has the ability to arrest the formation of plaques in the brain.

HIV/AIDS patients as well as cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy also benefit from the use of medical marijuana. These patients are known to have difficulty in stimulating appetites and in throwing up what they eat. Studies have shown that marijuana helps them eat by inducing their appetite. The plant also helps them keep their food down.

Among brain cancer patients, it is revealed that THC in marijuana causes cancerous cells to undergo a process called autophagy. It means that the cancerous cells feed upon themselves and thus disappear, leaving healthy brain tissue alone.

These are just some of the many advantages that scientists claim medical marijuana to have.

THC in marijuana has also shown positive development when it comes to treating asthma, glaucoma, lung cancer and breast cancer.232

e. Hemp (agricultural use):

231 Ibid 232 http://www.testcountry.org/the-advantages-of-legalizing-marijuana.htm

Marijuana also has several industrial uses. Hemp, which is grown from cannabis, can be used to create paper, clothes, lotions, perfumes, steel, and other necessities. With paper, instead of hacking down trees which take years upon years to recover, we could grow hemp, which is a renewable resource. In fact, the majority of our historical documents, including the Constitution itself, was written on hemp paper. It lasts longer, but also is less harmful to our environment.

With clothing, hemp lasts longer and is sturdier than our third largest crop, cotton. Plus, our government could save money pesticides and land development as marijuana can be grown anywhere and has it own natural pesticide which keeps various insects from having a feast on it.233 f. Religious Use: Some religions instruct their followers to use marijuana. Just like Christianity and Judaism instruct their followers to drink wine on certain occasions, some Hindus, Buddhists, Rastafarians, and members of other religions use marijuana as part of their spiritual and religious ceremonies.

These people deserve the freedom to practice their religion as they see fit. The First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution says that the government cannot 'prohibit the free exercise' of religion, and so marijuana should be legal.234 2) Cons: a. Biological and mental instability: 

Diminished balance and coordination



Impaired memory and concentration



Paranoia (including hallucinations)



Increased risk of cancer: o Mouth o Lungs o Throat o Tongue



Increased risk of respiratory infection and disease

233 http://hubpages.com/hub/How-Marijuana-Can-Change-The-World 234 http://www.mjlegal.org/essayspeech.html



Possible increased risk for heart attack



Clinically, marijuana is not an addictive drug since there are no habit forming chemicals in the drug. However according to marijuana users who smoke on a regular basis difficulty sleeping, eating, and overall difficulty functioning without use of the drug have been reported. o



A perfect example of the type of addiction marijuana will cause is as follows: A new restaurant opens up on Main Street in your hometown and you decide to stop in a try one of their sandwiches. Much to your surprise, it is the best sandwich that you have ever eaten! The following day you can’t help yourself but you have to go back and get another sandwich for lunch. In the following scenario, the sandwich has nothing in it that is clinically addicting, but you just really want the sandwich just because it is so good! That is the type of addiction that is caused by marijuana.

According to recent surveys 6-11% of all fatal accidents involve THC (the main chemical released from use of marijuana).

"Its [marijuana] effects on the brain function are compounded in adolescents because the behavior center at the frontal cortex is literally not developed...

To use [marijuana] is to take chemical shortcuts to the brain's pleasure center. It is not like riding a roller coaster or jumping out of an airplane. This is adding chemicals to your brain, not inducing a normal sensation. You are changing the way it normally functions and, in effect, creating a mental disorder. The brain bounces and bounces and finally stops bouncing back to normal." 235 Dr. Glen R. Hanson Associate Director of National Institute on Drug Abuse b. High prices: Another problem with marijuana (as with any other illegal product) is that the prices are usually very high.

When drug addicts run out of money and can't get a hold of the drug they use, they suffer multiple psychological and physiological problems and may resort to crime to obtain money to 235 http://www.freewebs.com/chem643-legalizationofmarijuana/thegoodandbad.htm

diminish or ease their discomfort.

The high price and unattainability of illegal marijuana also puts power in the hands of drug lords, mobs and gangs. If marijuana were legalized, it would become more accessible and less expensive, thus reducing crime.

But even when a drug is legalized, as happened with alcohol at the end of Prohibition, other drug-related problems arise --such as increased accidents while users are under the influence.

If marijuana were legalized, the drug would become more widespread and available to the general public, which means more and more people could become addicted to it.

This inevitably would lead to more pregnant mothers becoming addicted. Marijuana use by pregnant mothers is associated with increased tremors and nervousness among newborns and poorer verbal and memory development at four years of age.

An environment where marijuana use is reinforced by parents and society eventually would lead to its consumption by children and by others unfamiliar with its side effects.

Marijuana could seriously damage these people by shifting their personalities toward passivity and leave them a general lack of motivation.

These conditions are long-term consequences of marijuana use.

I believe that the interests of the general population override the interests of individuals who are seeking temporary physiological pleasure. Some would suggest that legalizing drugs would reduce crime, prevent youths from using drugs, and allow the government to monitor the sales and purchases of drugs. Legalizing alcohol after prohibition did not prevent the sale of alcohol to minors nor did it prevent minors from purchasing alcohol. Not only did legalizing alcohol fail to prevent minors from purchasing or alcohol being sold to minors, but also it did not prevent minors from using alcohol. Advocates argue that legalization of drugs would result in lower drug prices at a better quality because drugs would be sold openly or by private agencies. Advocates also think legalizing drugs would eliminate drug wars between dealers, violence and overall criminal behavior by drug addicts. However, some addicts were criminals before they started using drugs. The belief that better quality would result in lower rates of drug overdoses and diseases attributed to drug use is not accurate. In fact, legalization would increase an addictsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; appetite for the drug increasing the chances of an overdose and other health problems.236

c. Increased addiction percentages: A 2002 SAMHSA report, Initiation of Marijuana Use: Trends, Patterns and Implications, concludes that the younger children are when they first use marijuana, the more likely they are to use cocaine and heroin and become dependent on drugs as adults. The report found that 62% of adults age 26 or older who initiated marijuana before they were 15 years old reported that they had used cocaine in their lifetime. More than 9% reported they had used heroin and 53.9% reported non-medical use of psychotherapeutics. This compares to a 0.6% rate of lifetime use of cocaine, a 0.1% rate of lifetime use of heroin and a 5.1% rate of lifetime non-medical use of psychotherapeutics for those who never used marijuana. Increases in the likelihood of cocaine

236 http://www.iowastatedaily.com/articles/1997/11/06/import/19971106-archive9.txt

and heroin use and drug dependence are also apparent for those who initiate use of marijuana at any later age.

Results of the 2008 monitoring the Future survey indicate that 14.6% of eighth graders, 29.9% of tenth graders, and 42.6% of twelfth graders reported lifetime use of marijuana. In 2007, these percentages were 14.2%, 31.0%, and 41.8%, respectively.237

Statistical facts: 

Today’s marijuana is 10 to 15 times stronger than it was in the 60’s



Reaction time for motor skills, such as driving is reduced by 41% after smoking 1 joint and is reduced 63% after smoking 2 joints.



There have been over 7,000 published scientific and medical studies documenting the damage that marijuana poses. Not one study has shown marijuana to be safe.



Data has shown that people high on marijuana show the same lack of coordination on standard “drunk driver” tests as do people who have had too much to drink.



The daily use of 1 to 3 marijuana joints can produce the same lung damage and potential cancer risk as smoking five times as many cigarettes.



Marijuana is the second most common drug, after alcohol, present in the blood stream of non-fatally and fatally injured persons.



Among teens 12 to 17, the average age of first trying marijuana was 14 years old.



A yearly survey of students in grades 8 to 12 shows that 23% of 8th graders have tried marijuana at least once and by tenth grade, 21% are “current” users. Among 12th graders, nearly 50% have tried marijuana at least once, and about 24% were current users.



Marijuana is a complex material containing 421 chemicals, 60 of which are only found in marijuana



75% of drug-related criminal charges are connected to marijuana.238

Marijuana statistics: 237 Ibid 238 http//www.drug-statistics.com

The percentage of youth aged 12–17 indicating a great risk of smoking marijuana once a month remained unchanged between 1999 and 2000 (37.2% in 1999 and 37.7% in 2000).

According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, in 2003, 33.7 percent of college students had used marijuana in the past year, and 19.3 percent in the past month.

Although the quantity of domestically produced marijuana available in the United States in 2001 was unknown, the MAWG calculated—on the basis of cannabis eradication figures and potential yield per cannabis plant—that the estimated figure was between 5,577 and 16,731 metric tons. 239 1) In 1982 the DEA’s report on the DCESP program noted that “the program shows that in 1982, 38% more domestic marihuana (sic) has eradicated than was previously believed to exist.”

2) In 2002 the National Survey on Drug Use and Health revised its data collection procedures and increased their estimate of annual marijuana users from 21.1 million (as reported in the 2001 survey results) to 25.7 million.

3) After reporting from 1998 to 2000 that domestic marijuana production was 3,500 mt (7.7 million pounds) the Office of National Drug Control Strategy reported in February 2003 that “more than 10,000 metric tons [mt] of domestic marijuana and more than 5,000 mt of marijuana cultivated and harvested in Mexico and Canada— [is] marketed to more than 20 million users.”

This latest estimate of domestic marijuana production in excess of 10,000 mt was published in several government reports.

The 2002 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report (INCSR), issued by the US Department of State on March 1, 2003, stated: “Marijuana production and consumption is a serious problem in many countries—including in the United States. More than 10,000 metric tons (MT) of domestic marijuana and more than 5,000 metric tons of marijuana is cultivated and harvested in Mexico and Canada and marketed to more than 20 million users in the United States. Smaller quantities of marijuana are also produced in Colombia, Jamaica, Paraguay and other countries.”

The 2003 INCSR, issued on March 1, 2004, repeated this estimate:240 “Cannabis (marijuana) production and consumption is a serious problem in many countries— including in the United States. More than 10,000 metric tons of domestic marijuana and more than 5,000 metric tons of marijuana is cultivated and harvested in Mexico and Canada and marketed to more than 20 million users in the United States. Colombia, Jamaica, and Paraguay also export marijuana to the U.S.” 239Jon Gettman - Marijuana Production in the United States (2006)- (accessed on 10th of November 2009) - http://www.drugscience.org/Archive/bcr2/intro.html 240 U.S. department of state - The 2005 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report (INCSR)www.state.gov

The 2005 report also included the identical claim: “Cannabis (marijuana) production and consumption is a serious problem in many countries— including the United States, where it is by far the most widely used illicit drug. More than 10,000 metric tons of domestic marijuana and more than 5,000 metric tons of marijuana cultivated and harvested in Mexico and Canada is marketed to more than 20 million users in the United States.

Colombia, Jamaica, and Paraguay also export marijuana to the U.S.” This estimate was also reported to the United Nations and circulated to the international community as this country’s official estimate in both the UN’s 2003 report on “Global Illicit Drug Trends” and their 2004 “World Drug Report.”241 “Annual production of marijuana in the USA was estimated by the US authorities to amount to more than 10,000 [metric] tons in 2001/2002.”

Marijuana vs. Alcohol and Tobacco: Why is marijuana illegal, but alcohol and tobacco are available and regulated?

People who support marijuana prohibition claim that marijuana is unhealthy and dangerous.

They say we need to keep drugs illegal to protect our society from the addiction and disease that they cause. These arguments are not consistent with the fact that the two most deadly drugs in America are legal. Alcohol and tobacco are far more addictive and harmful than marijuana, but they are legally available. If we want to have drug policies that are logical and effective, we need to legalize and regulate marijuana in a manner similar to the regulation of alcohol and tobacco. 242

I. Alcohol: 

Alcohol causes a wide variety of health problems. o

According to the University of Michigan Health System report "Alcohol: Effects on Health", alcohol contributes to numerous health problems including gastritis, pancreatitis, ulcers, liver cancer, cirrhosis, and other liver diseases.

o

According to researched published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (Vol. 275 No. 1, January 3, 1996), alcohol abuse increases the risk of developing acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).

241 United nations office on drugs and crime - www.undoc.org 242 http://www.mjlegal.org/alctob.html



Alcohol abuse increases cancer risk. o

"Alcohol May Raise Breast Cancer Risk"243

o

"Considerable evidence suggests a connection between heavy alcohol consumption and increased risk for cancer" - from the National Institutes of Health "Alcohol Alert."



Alcohol abuse kills over 100,000 Americans every year.

See "By the Numbers: Deaths Caused by Alcohol" from Scientific American magazine (December 1996), and "Magnitude of Alcohol-Related Mortality and Morbidity among U.S. College Students Ages 18-24" from the Harvard School of Public Health.



Alcohol prohibition failed miserably. Marijuana prohibition is failing for the same reasons.

For an economic analysis of why prohibition doesn't work, see Alcohol Prohibition Was a Failure, by Auburn Economics professor Mark Thornton.

II. Tobacco: 

Nicotine, the active chemical in tobacco, is highly addictive.

See "The Health Consequences of Smoking: Nicotine Addiction" from the U.S. Surgeon General (1988).



Tobacco is the second major cause of death in the world, responsible for roughly 5 million deaths each year.

See the "Tobacco Free Initiative" from the World Health Organization (WHO)



Cigarette smoking is the single most preventable cause of premature death in the United States.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) fact sheet on "Cigarette Smoking-Related Mortality", more than 400,000 Americans die from cigarette smoking each year.



Despite the known health risks of tobacco use, cigarettes are legally available throughout the United States and can be purchased at gas stations, convenience stores, and supermarkets for less than $5 per pack.

Current situation: 243 http://www.cbsnews.com

California’s highly publicized effort to legalize the commercial cultivation and sale of cannabis is getting some well-deserved company!

A pair of bills — House Bill 2929 and Senate Bill 1801 — seeking to “tax and regulate the cannabis industry” have just been introduced in the Massachusetts legislature.

These proposals seek to legally regulate the commercial production and distribution of marijuana for adults over 21 years of age. Like California’s proposal, they would impose licensing requirements and excise taxes on the retail sale of cannabis. By some estimates, these taxes could raise nearly $100 million in annual state revenue.

Adults who possess or grow marijuana for personal use, or who engage in the non-profit transfer of cannabis, would not be subject to taxation under the law.244

14 Legal Medical Marijuana States: 244 http://blog.norml.org/2009/03/23/norml-breaking-news-marijuana-legalization-bills-introduced-inmassachusetts/

S.N.

State

Year Passed

1.

Alaska

1998

2.

California

1996

3.

Colorado

2000

4.

Hawaii

2000

5.

Maine

1999

6.

7.

Michigan Montana

2008 2004

8.

Nevada

2000

9.

New Jersey

2010

10.

New Mexico

2007

11.

Oregon

1998

12.

Rhode Island

2006

13.

Vermont

2004

14.

Washington

1998

How Passed (Yes Vote) Ballot Measure 8 (58%) Proposition 215 (56%)

Possession Limit 1 oz usable; 6 plants (3 mature, 3 immature) 8 oz usable; 18 plants (6 mature, 12 immature) 2 oz usable; 6 plants (3 mature, 3 immature) 3 oz usable; 7 plants (3 mature, 4 immature) 1.25 oz usable; 6 plants (3 mature, 3 immature) 2.5 oz usable; 12 plants 1 oz usable; 6 plants 1 oz usable; 7 plants (3 mature, 4 immature)

Ballot Amendment 20 (54%) Senate Bill 862 (32-18 House; 13-12 Senate) Ballot Question 2 (61%) Proposal 1 (63%) Initiative 148 (62%) Ballot Question 9 (65%) Senate Bill 119 (48-14 House; 2 oz usable 25-13 Senate) Senate Bill 523 6 oz usable; 16 plants (4 (36-31 House; mature, 12 immature) 32-3 Senate) Ballot Measure 67 24 oz usable; 24 plants (6 (55%) mature, 18 immature) Senate Bill 0710 (5210 House; 33-1 2.5 oz usable; 12 plants Senate) Senate Bill 76 (22-7) 2 oz usable; 9 plants (2 mature, HB 645 (82-59) 7 immature) Initiative 692 (59%)

24 oz usable; 15 plants

245

245 Pros and Cons of Controversial Issues- http://medicalmarijuana.procon.org/viewresource.asp? resourceID=000881- (accessed on 30th of October 2009)

13 States with Pending Legislation or Ballot Measures to Legalize Medical Marijuana: 1. Alabama 2. Connecticut 3. Delaware 4. Illinois 5. Iowa 6. Massachusetts 7. Minnesota 8. Missouri 9. New Hampshire 11. New York 12. North Carolina 13. Pennsylvania 14. Tennessee 246

!‫شر لدبد منه‬....‫طالبان‬ 246 Pros and Cons of Controversial Issues-http://medicalmarijuana.procon.org/viewresource.asp? resourceID=002481 -(accessed on 1st of November 2009)

‫الرهاب الدولي هو الن واحد من التعادبير الثكثر إثارة للجدل‪ ,‬حيث يراه الناس دبطممرق متعممددة أحيانمما ممما تتنمماقض و أحيانمما ممما تتشممادبك مممع‬ ‫دبعضها البعض‪ ,‬حيث أصبح يستخدم لتبرير العديد من الفكار و السياسات و الرجراءات التى تؤثر فى حياتنمما اليوميممة‪ .‬منممذ هجمممات سممبتمبر‪ ،‬ومصممطلح‬ ‫الرهاب الدولي قد استخدم دبكثافة منقطعة النظير و قد أخذت الحرب على الرهاب الدولي أميرثكا إلى أماثكن ثكثيرة مختلفة وخطيرة ثكما خلقت العديممد مممن‬ ‫العداء لميرثكا‪ .‬أفغانستان ثكانت الساحة الولي "للحرب على الرهاب الدولي" لول مرة عندما شمنت الوليمات المتحمدة الحمرب ضمد طالبمان‪ .‬الح رب‬ ‫دبدأت هناك و لكنها لم تنته حيثما دبدأت ‪ ،‬فقد امتدت الى أماثكن أخرى فى مقدمتها دباثكستان المجاورة حيث أعادت حرثكممة طالبممان تنظيممم صممفوفها و أخممذت‬ ‫تشن الهجمات ضد الحكومة الفغانية المدعومة من قبل الحكومة الميرثكية‪ .‬تنظيم القاعدة هو أيضا رجزء مهممم مممن المعادلممة ‪ ،‬حيممث يعتممبر منظمممة دوليممة‬ ‫ارهادبية و حليفا مهما لحرثكة طالبان و التي ثكانت تعطي القاعدة ملاذا آمنا في أفغانستان قبل الغزو الميرثكي‪.‬‬ ‫النهج الذى انتهجته أمريكا تجاه حرثكة طالبان ثكان دائما ما يتأثر دباحتيارجات الحكومة الميرثكية ثكقوة عظمى ‪،‬حتى أنه تقلب من الدعم اللفظمي‬ ‫في دبدايتها لحرب وحشية دبعد هجمات سبتمبر‪ .‬الن هناك إدارة رجديدة في البيت الدبيض مع أفكار رجديممدة وسياسممات رجديممدة ولكممن ل تممزال الهممداف الممتى‬ ‫تورجه السياسات الميرثكية هى اذاتها و لكى نكون قادرين على الفهم الكامل للنهج الميرثكي الجديد تجاه طالبممان علينمما ان نفهممم عقليممة طالبممان ‪ ،‬خلفيتهمما ‪،‬‬ ‫أهدافها وما هية قدراتها الحقيقية‪ .‬و لكن البداية الصحيحة تكون دبدراسة البيئة التي تعمل فيها طالبان‪.‬‬

‫أفغانستان‬ ‫رجمهورية أفغانستان السلمية هي دبلد غير ساحلي في رجنوب وسط آسيا‪ .‬دائما ما أشير إليهمما دبأوصمماف مختلفممة‪,‬فتوصممف دبأنهمما تقممع فممي آسمميا‬ ‫الوسطى ورجنموب آسميا ‪ ،‬أو ف ي الشمرق الوسمط‪ .‬أفغانسمتان تحمدها دباثكسمتان رجنموب البلد و شمرقها و إيمران ف ي الغمرب ‪ ،‬وترثكمانسمتان وأوزدبكسممتان‬ ‫وطارجيكستان في الشمال ‪ ،‬والصين في اقصى شمال شرق البلد‪.‬‬ ‫الكيان الجغرافي الذي يعرف الن دباسم أفغانستان لديه تاريخ طويل رجدا فلقد ثكان نقطة الوصل القديمة لطريممق الحريممر والهجممرة‪ .‬إنممه الموقممع‬ ‫المهم رجغرافيا و استراتيجيا ‪ ،‬الذي يردبط شرق وغرب آسيا أو الشرق الوسط‪ .‬هذه الرض دائما ما ثكانت هدفا للغممزاة علممى تعممدد أصممولهم ‪ ،‬فضممل عممن‬ ‫ثكونها مصدرا للقوى المحلية التي ارجتاحت المناطق المجمماورة لتشممكل لنفسممها امبراطوريمات دبلممغ شمأنها العنمان‪ .‬أحممد شمماه دورانمي خلممق المبراطوريمة‬ ‫الدورانيه في عام ‪ ، 1747‬والذي يعتبر دبداية أفغانستان الحديثة‪ .‬عاصمة هذه المبراطورية ثكانت قندهار والتى تم نقلها في وقت لحق إلى ثكادبول ومعظممم‬ ‫أراضي المبراطورية تم التنازل عنها للقوى المجاورة‪ .‬في أواخر القرن التاسع عشر‪ ،‬أصبحت أفغانستان دولة تعمل ثكمنطقة عازلة في "اللعبة الكبرى"‬ ‫دبين المبراطورية البريطانية والقيصرية الروسية و هذا ل يجعلنا نغفل أن دبريطانيا حاولت مرارا السيطرة عليها و لكن دباءت محاولتها دبالفشل الممذريع و‬ ‫قد غردبت شمس آخرها في ‪ 19‬أغسطس ‪ ، 1919 ،‬في أعقاب الحرب النجلو الفغانية الثالثة ‪ ،‬حيث استعادت أفغانستان الستقلل عممن المملكممة المتحممدة‬ ‫فى شؤونها الخاررجية‪.‬‬ ‫ديموغرافيا أفغانستان عبارة عن مزيج من المجموعات العرقية واللغوية وهذا نتيجة لموقعهمما علممى مفممترق طممرق التجممارة التاريخيممة و أحلم‬ ‫الغزو المؤدية من وسط آسيا إلى رجنوب آسيا ورجنوب غرب آسميا‪ .‬يبلمغ ع دد سمكان أفغانسمتان ‪ 28,396,000‬غالبيمة سمكان أفغانسمتان همم ممن الشمعوب‬ ‫اليرانية ‪ ،‬ول سيما البشتون والطارجيك‪ .‬البشتون أثكبر رجماعة عرقية ثم يليهم الطارجيك والهزارة‪ .‬الباشتو والفارسممية )داري( هممما اللغتممان الرسممميتان فممي‬ ‫البلد‪ .‬الفارسية هي التي يتحدث دبها ما ل يقل عن نصف عدد السكان ‪ ،‬وتعتبر دبمثادبة لغة مشترثكة للمعظم‪ .‬وتسممتخدم لغمة الباشممتو علمى نطمماق واسممع فمي‬ ‫الجنوب والشرق والجنوب الغردبي وثكذلك في غرب دباثكستان‪.‬‬ ‫‪ ٪ 99‬من السكان في أفغانستان ينتمون للسلم‪ .‬ما يقدر دبنحو ‪ ٪ 80‬من السممكان هممم مممن السممنة وينتمممون للمدرسممة الحنفيممة دبينممما‬ ‫حوالى ‪ ٪ 19‬ينتمون للشيعة‪ .‬وعلى الرغم من محاولت علمنة المجتمع الفغاني خلل سنوات الحكم الشيوعي ‪ ،‬فالممارسات السلمية تعم رجميع رجوانب‬ ‫الحياة‪ .‬في الواقع ‪ ،‬السلم ثكان دبمثادبة الساس الرئيسي للتعبير عن المعارضة للحكم الشيوعي ‪ ،‬والغزو السوفييتي‪ .‬ودبالمثممل ‪ ،‬نجممد أن التقاليممد السمملمية‬ ‫والرموز الدينية رجنبا إلى رجنب مع الممارسات التقليدية توفر الوسائل الرئيسية لضبط السلوك الشخصي وتسوية النزاعات المختلفة‪ .‬الدين يلعب دورا هاما‬ ‫رجدا في الحياة الفغانية وهذا قد يكون متوقعا نظرا لحقائق البيئة الفغانية‪ .‬أفغانستان مقسمة دبواسطة العديد من الجبال إلى وديان ثكممثيرة ‪ ،‬ثكممل واحممد منهمما‬ ‫تسكنه عرقية لها تقاليدها الخاصة دبها وتختلف فيها عن الخرين‪ .‬شيء واحد فقط يوحد الشعب الفغاني أل و هو دينهم المشترك‪ ،‬السلم‪ .‬هذا هو السممبب‬ ‫في أن أفغانستان ثكبلد في حد اذاته يعتمد على هويته ثكبلد مسلم‪ .‬نتيجة لذلك طوال تاريخ أفغانستان ‪ ،‬تم عممزل العديممد مممن الملمموك لن الشممعب الفغمماني لممم‬ ‫يراهم متدينين دبما فيه الكفاية‪.‬‬ ‫أفغانستان عضو في رادبطة رجنوب آسيا للتعاون القليمي )سارك( ‪ ،‬منظمة التعاون القتصادي )اثكو( ومنظممة الممؤتمر السملمي‪ .‬أفغانسمتان‬ ‫دولة فقيرة وواحدة من أفقر دول العالم وأقلها نموا فثلثي السكان يعيشون على أقل من ‪ 2‬دولر أمريكي يوميا‪ .‬اقتصاد أفغانسممتان عمماني ثكممثيرا إثممر الغممزو‬ ‫السوفيتي عام ‪ 1979‬وما تبعه من صراعات‪ .‬وفقا للبنك الدولي ‪" ،‬لقمد أدي النممو القتصمادي القموي إلمي تحسممين مسمتويات المعيشمة" منمذ عمام ‪.2001‬‬ ‫اقتصاد البلد دبدأ في التحسن منذ عام ‪ 2002‬دبسبب ضخ عدة مليارات من الدولرات المريكىة من المساعدات الدولية والستثمارات ‪ ،‬وثكذلك التحويلت‬ ‫المالية من المغتردبين ويررجع أيضا إلى إدخال تحسينات هائلة على النتاج الزراعي‪ .‬ثلث الناتج المحلي الرجمالي لفغانستان يأتي مممن زراعممة الخشممخاش‬ ‫والتجار غير المشروع دبالمخدرات دبما في اذلك الفيون ومشتقاته ‪ ،‬والمورفين والهيرويين ‪ ،‬فضل عن إنتاج الحشيش‪ .‬انتاج الفيون في افغانستان ارتفممع‬ ‫الى مستوى قياسي رجديد في عام ‪ ، 2007‬دبزيادة عن العام الذي سبقه دبأثكثر من الثلث ‪ ،‬تبعا لبيانات المم المتحدة فنحو ‪ 3.3‬مليون أفغمماني يشممارثكون الن‬ ‫في انتاج الفيون‪ .‬في مقال نشر مؤخرا في واشنطن الفصلية ‪،‬أشار دبيممتر فممان وهممام و ثكامينغمما دبممأن علمى المجتمممع الممدولي العمممل علممي أن يضممع مسممودة‬ ‫لمشروع تجريبي للتحقيق في نظام منح التراخيص لبدء إنتاج أدوية مثل المورفين والكوديين من محاصمميل الخشممخاش لمسمماعدة البلممد علممى الهممروب مممن‬ ‫العتماد على الفيون ثكمصدر أساسى للرزق‪.‬‬

‫دباثكستان‬ ‫دباثكستان‪ ،‬المعروفة رسميا دباسم رجمهورية دباثكستان السلمية ‪ ،‬ثكانت واحدة من دولتين نشأتا من انقسام الهند البريطانيمة ‪ ،‬والمتي قسممت علمى‬ ‫أساس ديني في عام ‪ .1947‬دباثكستان دبلد يقع فى رجنوب آسيا‪ ,‬و له خممط سماحلى طموله ‪ 1046‬ثكيلومممترعلى طمول سمماحل البحرالعردبمي وخليمج عمممان فمي‬ ‫الجنوب‪ ,‬تحدها أفغانستان وإيران في الغرب والهند في الشرق ورجمهورية الصين الشعبية في أقصى شمال شرق البلد‪ .‬ودبالتالي ‪ ،‬فإنها تحتل قلب مفممترق‬ ‫الطرق دبين رجنوب آسيا وآسيا الوسطى والشرق الوسط‪.‬‬ ‫دباثكستان لديها مجتمع متعدد الثقافات و العراق‪ .‬تم تقدير عدد سكان دباثكسممتان فممي عمام ‪ 2009‬دبحمموالى ‪ 180.800.000‬مممما يجعلهمما سممادس‬ ‫اثكبر دولة سكانا ‪ ،‬وراء البرازيل وقبل روسيا‪ .‬دبحلول عام ‪ ، 2020‬يتوقع ان يصل عدد سكان البلد الى ‪ 208‬مليون معظمهم من الشباب‪ ,‬أضف إلى اذلك‬ ‫أن دباثكستان تستضيف واحدة من أثكبر تجمعات اللرجئين في العالم‪ ٪ 20 .‬من السكان يعيشون تحممت خممط الفقممر الممدولي دبأقممل مممن ‪ 1.25‬دولر فممي اليمموم‪.‬‬ ‫دباثكستان دبلد متعدد اللغات حيث نستطيع أن نسمع أثكثر من ستين لغة يتحدث دبها الشممعب الباثكسممتانى‪ .‬اللغممة النجليزيممة همي اللغممة الرسمممية فممي دباثكسممتان ‪،‬‬ ‫وتستخدم في المعاملت الرسمية ‪ ،‬و الهيئات الحكومية ‪ ،‬والعقود القانونية ‪ ،‬دبينما الردية هي اللغة الوطنية‪ .‬وفقا لخر تعداد أرجري في أواخر عام ‪2008‬‬ ‫‪ ،‬يتألف السكان من العديد من المجموعات العرقية الرئيسية أهمها ‪ :‬البنجاب )‪ ، (٪ 44.15‬والبشتون )‪ (٪ 15.42‬والسند )‪ .(٪ 14.1‬التعداد الممذي أرجممراه‬ ‫المكتب الدولي الباثكستانى يشير إلى أن أثكثر من ‪ ٪ 97‬من سكان دباثكستان هم من المسلمين‪ .‬هناك عدد صممغير مممن غيممر المسمملمين والقليممات الدينيممة مممن‬ ‫المسيحيين والهندوس وغيرهم تصل إلى ‪ .٪ 3‬ما يقرب من ‪ ٪ 70‬من المسلمين الباثكستانيين هم من السنة دبينما ‪ ٪ 30‬هم من الشيعة‪.‬‬ ‫على الرغم من ثكونها دولة فقيرة رجدا منذ دبدايتها عام ‪ ، 1947‬ولكن معدل النمو القتصممادي فمى دباثكسممتان ثكممان أفضممل مممن المتوسممط العممالمي‬ ‫خلل العقود الردبعة اللحقة ‪ ،‬ولكن سياسات الحكومة غير الحكيمة أدت إلى حدوث تباطؤ في أواخر تسعينات القرن الماضى‪ .‬في الونة الخيممرة ‪ ،‬أدت‬ ‫إصلحات واسعة على النطاق القتصادي إلى توقعات اقتصادية أقوى دبنمو متسارع وخاصمة فمي قطماعي الصمناعات التحويليممة والخممدمات الماليمة‪ .‬منممذ‬ ‫تسعينات القرن الماضى ‪ ،‬ثكان هناك تحسن ثكبير في موقف النقد الرجنبي ونمو سممريع المموتيرة فممي احتياطيممات العملممة الصممعبة‪ .‬ومممع اذلممك ‪ ،‬فممإن الزمممة‬ ‫القتصادية لعام ‪ 2008‬اضطرت دباثكستان إلى الستدانة للحصول على أثكثر من ‪ 100‬مليار دولر من المساعدات لتجنممب الفلس الوشمميك‪ .‬هممذا لممم يكممن‬ ‫أدبدا فى المتناول الباثكستانى ‪ ،‬ودبالتالي ثكان عليها أن تعتمد على سياسة أثكثر شدة ماليا‪ ،‬و قد دعمها في اذلك صندوق النقممد الممدولى‪ .‬دبعممد عممام مممن الزمممة‪,‬‬ ‫أشارت تقارير مصرف التنمية السيوي إلى أن دباثكستان نجحت فى تخفيف حدة الزمة القتصممادية فممي عمام ‪ .2009‬وعلوة علمى اذلممك فمممن المتوقممع أن‬ ‫تحقق دباثكستان في عام ‪ 2010‬معدل نمو اقتصادى دبما ل يقل عن ‪ 4‬في المئة ويمكن أن تنمو أثكثر مع النتعاش القتصادي القوي دوليا‪.‬‬

‫طالبان أفغانستان‬ ‫اختلف المحللون حول تحديد تاريخ نشأة طالبان دبدقة‪ ،‬ل يختلف الكثيرون على أن أول هجوم عسكري اذو شأن لطالبان ثكممان فممي عممام ‪،1994‬‬ ‫حينما تقدمت الحرثكة لل سيطرة على قندهار‪ ،‬ولكمن يممري محللمون ثكممثيرون أن همذا ليمس التاريمخ الفعلممي لميلد طالبمان‪ .‬فطالبمان‪ ،‬ثكمأي حرثكممة سياسممية‬ ‫أخرى‪ ،‬هي نتاج مجموعة من العوامل التاريخية والجغرافية‪.‬‬ ‫لقد دبدأت القصة في عام ‪ ، 1978‬حينما قام حزب الشعب الديمقراطي في أفغانستان‪ ،‬اذي الخلفية المارثكسية‪ ،‬دبانقلب سممممي انقلب ثور‪ .‬أدى‬ ‫هذا إلى نشوء حكومة حاولت تقليد النمواذج السوفييتي في تحديث وتغيير أفغانستان‪ ،‬والذي أدى إلى أن دبدأت أشباح اللحاد وعدم اليمان تلموح فمي أفمق‬ ‫السماء الفغانية ولكن شعب أفغانستان اذي الطادبع شديد التدين دبدأ في النقلب ضد الحكومة‪ .‬لم تكن الحكومة قادرة وحدها على مقاومممة سمملطة المللممي‬ ‫فقامت دبتوقيع اتفاقية مع التحاد السوفييتي تتيح لها طلب المساعدة العسكرية متى أرادت‪ .‬من ذ توقيع التفاقية دأدبت الحكومة الفغانية على طلممب التممدخل‬ ‫السوفييتي‪ ،‬ولكن السوفييت ثكانوا خائفين من تكرار السيناريو الفيتنامي‪ .‬تلشي هذا الخوف أمام الضغوط الفغانية فبدأت دبشائر القوات السوفيتية تصل‪،‬‬ ‫وإن ثكانت دبأعداد دبسيطة‪ ،‬إلى ثكادبول ثكحرس شخصي للرئيس الفغاني حتى رجاءت ليلة ‪ 27‬ديسمبر ‪ 1979‬حينما دبدأ السوفييت هجماتهم العسممكرية اذات‬ ‫) ‪(1‬‬ ‫النطاق الواسع في أفغانستان‬ ‫لم تكن أمريكا دبعيدة عن الصورة‪ ،‬فقد ثكانت سعيدة لرؤية السوفييت يدخلون أفغانستان حيممث ثكممانت أثكممثر مممن مسممتعدة لممرد الممدين الفيتنامي‪.‬‬ ‫ارجتهدت أمريكا في تحويل المال وشحن السلح عبر الوسيط الباثكستاني إلى المجاهدين فممي أفغانسممتان الممذين ثكممانوا أفممراداا أفغممان عاديين يدافعون عممن‬ ‫أرضهم ضد الغزو الخاررجي‪ .‬دبررجنسكي‪ ،‬مستشار الرئيس ثكارتر للمن القومي‪ ,‬قال أنه يوم أن عبرت القمموات السوفييتية الحممدود الفغانيممة‪ ،‬ثكتممب إلممى‬ ‫الرئيس ثكارتر "نحن الن لدينا الفرصة لنغرق السوفييت في فيتنام رجديدة"‪ .‬من المعروف أن أمريكا دبدأت تساعد المجاهدين منذ ‪ 1980‬لكن دبريجنسممكي‬ ‫قال أن أمريكا قدمت مساعدات لعناصر معادية للحكومة الشيوعية في أفغانستان منذ منتصف ‪ 1978‬وأنهم ثكممانوا علممى علممم أن مثممل هممذا الممدعم سمميدفع‬ ‫) ‪(2‬‬ ‫السوفييت للتدخل في أفغانستان و هذا هو الذى ثكانوا يأملون حدوثه‪.‬‬ ‫لقد استعانت أمريكا دبحلفائها من العرب في أداء هذه المهمة وخاصة السعوديين الذين رأوا أن غزو أفغانسممتان ممما هو إل خطمموة‬ ‫يعقبها غزو السوفييت لباثكستان حيث يصبحون على مقردبة من مياه الخليج الدافئة‪ .‬أحد أهم الشيوخ السعوديين أصدر ثكتاب دبعنوان "الدفاع عن أراضممي‬ ‫المسلمين أهم فروض العين"‪ ،‬حيث قال أن وارجب ثكل مسلم أينما ثكان هو الدفاع عن الراضي الفغانية ضد السوفييت الكفرة‪ .‬الشيخ عبد العزيز دبن دباز‬ ‫وهو ثكان أعلى سلطة دينية في السعودية قام دبقراءة هذا الكتاب ووافق علي ما رجاء دبين صفحاته‪ .‬تصادف هذا أن ثكان في نفس الوقت مع قيام أسممامة دبممن‬ ‫)‪(3‬‬ ‫لدن دبتجميع الموال ومساعدة من يريد على الذهاب إلى أفغانستان وحرب السوفييت حينما أنشأ مكتب الخدمات في دبيشاور في دباثكستان‪.‬‬ ‫لقد أتى هذا الجهد دبثماره حينما دبدأ السوفييت انسحادبا ا تدريجيا ا انتهى عام ‪ 1989‬دبخروج القوات السوفيتية تجممرأ أاذيال الهزيمممة‪.‬‬ ‫لكن استمر الدعم المعنوي و المادي السوفييتي إلى الحكومة في ثكادبول حممتى انهممار التحمماد السمموفييتي والممتى لممم تحتمممل ثكممثيرا فمراق الحليممف السمموفييتى‬ ‫فانهارت هى الخرى‪ .‬ثكان الجميع حول العالم يشع ر دبالسعادة فيما عدا الشعب الفغاني الذي نظر دبترقب إلممى الفممراغ المذي خلفمه النسممحاب السموفييتي‬ ‫حيث انزلق المجاهدون إلى حرب للتنا زع على غنائم الحرب ودبدأ ثكل منهم في مهارجمة الخر للحصول على الراضي والنفواذ‪.‬‬ ‫‪“The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979: Failure of Intelligence or of the Policy Process?” WORKING GROUP REPORT, NO. 111, SEPTEMBER 26, 2005WITH‬‬

‫‪1.‬‬

‫‪“The CIA's Intervention in Afghanistan” Le Nouvel Observateur, Paris, 15-21 January 1998 Posted at globalresearch.ca 15 October 2001.‬‬

‫‪2.‬‬

‫‪“The looming tower: the road to 9/11” by Lawrence Wright, published by Alfred A. Knopf Inc., 2006.‬‬

‫‪3.‬‬

‫‪THE SUPPORT OF THE JOHN D. AND CATHERINE T. MACARTHUR Foundation.‬‬

‫تزامن هذا مع توقف شلل المال الذي ثكان ينبع من الخارج فأدى اذلك إلى أن دبحث ثكل فريق عن وسيلة للحصول على دبدائل مالية‪ ،‬فانتشممر‬ ‫العنف والنهب وقطع الطريق والختطا ف لطلب الفدية‪ .‬شعر المواطن الفغاني البسيط دبالغضب العارم نتيجة لتلشممي المممان وانتشممار هممذه التصممرفات‬ ‫المشينة التي ل تمت للدين دبصلة وأصبح يترقب في الفق دبحثاا عن منقذ وهنا رجاءت ولدة طالبان الحقيقية‪.‬‬ ‫لقد ثكان المل محمد عمر طالب اا في إحدى المدارس الدينية المنتشرة في أفغانستان حيث ثكان يدرس العلوم الدينيممة مثممل غيرة مممن‬ ‫سائر الشعب الفغاني حينما شعر دبالحباط من الظروف المحيطة دبه‪ .‬عام ‪ 1994‬قرر المل عمر موارجهة الواقع وتغييره‪ ،‬وقد قال لحقا ا "تمموثكلت علممى‬ ‫ا التوثكل الواحد ومن يتوثكل على ا هذا النوع من التوثكل ل يخيب أمله أدبداا ‪ ".‬ثم شرع في حشد النمماس فممي قريتممه سنج س ار دبقنممدهار مممن أرجممل هممذا‬ ‫الغرض‪ .‬لقد دبدأ دبإشاعة المن والمان في قريته ونجح في هذا‪ .‬ثم ترددت أصداء هذا الحدث في القرى المجاورة فأخذت الحرثكة تزداد اتسمماعا ا وتكسممب‬ ‫المزيد والمزيد من المريدين‪ .‬في البداية لم يكن المل عمر يممراوده حلممم السمميطرة علممى ثكادبول أو حممتى قنممدهار ثككممل‪ ،‬ولكممن تمموالى النتصممارات وعلممو‬ ‫الصوات المشجعة دفعهم إلى النتشار من مكان لخر حتى دخلوا ثكادبول العاصمة ‪1996‬دخول الفاتحين‪ .‬ساعدهم في اذلك أنهممم أصممروا علممى اللممتزام‬ ‫دبقانون ديني متشدد أرضى الطبيعة الدينية للشعب الفغاني‪ ،‬فعندما دخلوا ثكادبول أصدروا قانونمماا يلممزم الررجممال دبممإطلق لحمماهم و إل السممجن حممتى تنمممو‬ ‫) ‪(1‬‬ ‫اللحية قصرا‪.‬‬

‫نتيجة لمثل هذه التغيرات رأي أمراء الحرب الفغان أن طالبممان الوليممدة علممى السمماحة أصممبحت تهممددهم رجميعمما ا فقاموا دبتوحيممد‬ ‫قوا هم المتحاردبة تحت إسم "تحالف الشمال" الذي قاده أحمد شاه مسعود‪ .‬حاول تحالف الشمال محاردبة طالبان ولكممن طالبممان ثكممانت ثكالمل الممذي طممال‬ ‫انتظاره ثكما أن أمراء الحرب لم تكن سمعتهم السيئة عوناا لهم فانتشرت طالبان ثكالنار فى الهشيم‪ .‬دبحلول عام ‪ 1998‬ثكانت طالبان تسيطر على ‪ %95‬من‬ ‫أراض ي أفغانستان‪ .‬أخذت طالبان في إعادة دبناء هيكلية تنظيمية لفغانستان ثكحكومة أمر واقع وقد ثكممان رجميممع وزراؤهمما مممن زملء دراسة المل عمممر‬ ‫دبغض النظر عن موقعهم في الحكومة‪.‬‬

‫) ‪(2‬‬

‫رد الفعل العالمي‪:‬‬ ‫أدت سيطرة طالبان إلى حالة من الفرح في دباثكستان أقرب الجيران لسباب عدة‪ .‬لقد نشأت طالبان في مناطق تسيطر عليها عرقية‬ ‫البشتون و لذا فقد ثكان معظم أعضائها‪ ،‬ولكن ليس رجميعهم‪ ،‬من البشتون والذين ثكانوا أثكبر عرقية في أفغانستان ثكممما أن لهممم امتممداد ثكممبير في دباثكسممتان‬ ‫حيث ينتمون أيضاا لبشتون دباثكستان ولذلك فقد ثكانت لهم أهداف ورؤى متشادبهة‪ .‬فضمملا عممن اذلممك فقممد ثكممانت الحكومممة الباثكستانية دائممما ا ممما تخمماف مممن‬ ‫وصول حكومة تدعمها الهند‪ ،‬العدو التقليدي لباثكستان‪ ،‬إلى سدة الحكم في ثكادبول‪ ,‬دبينما ثكانت طالبان اذات المررجعية الدينية المتشددة والتي تعادي اللحاد‬ ‫والكفر حكومة اذات رؤى وأفكار متشادبهة مع نظيرتها فى دباثكستان‪ .‬سبب آخر هو أن ورجود حكومة تبسط نفواذها وسيطرتها وتنشر المن في أفغانسممتان‬ ‫سيفتح الطريق أمام التجارة الباثكستانية إلى دول وسط آسيا مما سيدر دخلا إضافيا ا إلى الخزينة الباثكستانية‪ .‬ل يمكننا أيضاا أن نتناسى أن استقرار المور‬ ‫في أفغانستان قد يشجع ثلث مليين من اللرجئين الفغان في دباثكستان على العودة إلى ديارهم مما يخلص دباثكستان من عبء استمر طيلة ‪ 15‬عاممماا‪ .‬مممن‬ ‫أرجل هذه السباب سارعت دباثكستان إلى المساعدة والعترا ف دبطالبان من أرجل أن تؤمن مصالحها في أفغانسممتان ثكممما سممارعت الحكومممة السممعودية إلممى‬ ‫إغراق المساعدات على طالبان ثك ي يكون لها يد في تورجيه الحرثكة فكانت دولة أخرى من مجموع ثلث دول اعترفت دبطالبممان هممي دباثكسممتان‪ ،‬السممعودية‬ ‫) ‪(3‬‬ ‫والمارات‪.‬‬ ‫العيون المريكية لم تكن دب بعيدة عن الساحة الفغانية‪ .‬حيث لم تبدى أى اعتراض على الدعم الباثكسممتاني والسممعودي لطالبمان دبمل‬ ‫شجعتهم على زيادة الدعم لنشاء أفغانستان مستقرة وقوية واضعة في الحسبان أن إيران دبعد الثورة‬ ‫الغلط لفهمى هويدى‪ ,‬نشر دار الشروق‪2001 ,‬‬ ‫‪.‬طالبان‪ :‬رجند ا فى العرثكة "‬ ‫‪“Helping Hand: Where did the Taliban come from? How did they finance the drive to impose an Islamic state? “ By Steve LeVine, Newsweek, October 13, 1997‬‬ ‫‪http://middleeast.about.com/od/afghanistan/ss/me080914a_7.htm‬‬

‫‪1.‬‬ ‫‪2.‬‬ ‫‪3.‬‬

‫السلمية أصبحت ه ي العدو اللدود لمريكا ولدبد من قوة مستقبلية لمعادلتها دبعد أن أثبت صدام في العراق أنه ل يمكن العتماد عليه‪ .‬ولقد‬ ‫ثكانت طالبان تد عو لهل السنة دبينما إيران اذات أغلبية شيعية‪ .‬في دبدايتها‪ ,‬دخلت طالبان في حرب مع عرقيات ثكثيرة منهمما قبيلممة الهممزاره الشيعية مممما‬ ‫رجعل طالبان حليفا ا محتم ا‬ ‫ل ضد إيران‪ .‬اتبعت إدارة ثكلنتون خطا دباثكستان في هذا الشأن حيث عبرت عممن اسممتعدادها للممدخول في حوار مممع طالبممان فممي‬ ‫منتصف تسعينات القرن الماضي واضعين في العتبار أن طالبان ثكانت القوة الوحيدة في أفغانستان القادرة على توفير حماية لحد اهتمامات أمريكا أل‬ ‫وهو خط دبترول ينقل البترول من ترثكمانستان إلى دباثكستان ماراا دبأفغانستان‪ .‬في ‪ 27‬سبتمبر ‪ 1996‬عبر المتحدث دباسم الخاررجية المريكية رجلين دافيس‬ ‫عن رغبة الدارة المريكية في أن تتحرك طالبان سريعاا من أرجل نشممر السممتقرار في أفغانست ان‪ .‬ثكممما أضمماف أن أمريكمما قممد تبعممث دبددبلوماسممييها إلممى‬ ‫)‪(1‬‬ ‫أفغانستان من أرجل دبحث سبل إنشاء علقات ددبلوماسية دبين البلدين‪.‬‬ ‫دبدأ التغير في السياسة المريكية تجاه طالبان مع وصول مادلين أولبرايت لوزارة الخاررجية في يناير ‪ 1997‬وقد ثكان اذلك لسببين‬ ‫رئيسين أولهما أن طالبان استضافت أسامة دبن لدن في أراضيها‪ .‬أسامة دبن لدن لم يكن غريباا عن الواقع الفغاني فقد ثكان مع المجاهدين أثنمماء الحممرب‬ ‫ضد السوفييت‪ .‬لكن هذه المرة وصل أسامة حاملا معه أرجندة دولية وأهدافاا رجديدة ضد ثكل من هو ليس مسلم‪ .‬لقد ثكان دبن لدن مطلودبا ا القبض عليه حيث‬ ‫ثكان المشتبه دبه الرئيسي في هجمات على أهداف أمريكية في السعودية ودبلدان أخرى وقد ثكان ممول للرهاب الممدولي ضمد الهمداف الغردبيمة‪ .‬السمبب‬ ‫الثاني لنقلب أمريكا على طالبان هو أن طالبان ثكانت‪ ،‬من ورجهة نظر أمريكية‪ ،‬تنتهك حقوق النسان عاممة وحقمموق الممرأة علمى ورجمه أخمص‪ .‬دبممدأت‬ ‫طالبان تفقد الدعم الدولي الضعيف تدريجيا ا نتيجة لتبنيها نظاما ا هو الثكثر تشدد اا في تطبيق السمملم واسممتخدامها لعقودبممات قاسممية متضمممنة العممدام‪ .‬لقممد‬ ‫فوضت طالبان وزارة المر دبالمعروف والنهي عن المنكر دباستخدام العقودبات البدنية للعمل على تطبيق الشريعة السلمية متضمممنة حظممر التليفزيممون‪،‬‬ ‫الموسيقى والرقص‪ .‬ولقد حظرت على النسا ء الذهاب إلى العمل فيما عدا القطاع الصحي وقد قامت دبإعدام دبعض النساء علناا من أرجل الزنمما‪ .‬وقممد ثكممانت‬ ‫القشة التي قصمت ظهر البعير ما حدث في مارس ‪ 2001‬عندما ما قررت طالبان هدم تمثالي دبواذا في مدينة دباميان حيث اعتبرتهممما أنهممما أصممنام‪ .‬دبعممد‬ ‫تفجير السفارات المريكية في ثكينيا وتنزانيا عام ‪ 1998‬أخذت أمريكا تضيق الخناق على طالبان عن طريق العقودبممات وقممرارات المممم المتحدة ثكممما‬ ‫أنه في ‪ 20‬أغسطس ‪ 1998‬أطلقت أمريكا هجمة صواريخ ضد معسكرات يشتبه أنها معسكرات تدريب للقاعدة في أفغانستان ولكنها لم تصب دبممن لدن‬ ‫ولكن الموارجهة الحقيقية استعرت دبعد هجمات ‪ 11‬سبتمبر ‪ 2001‬حيث ضغطت أمريكا على مجلس المن لقرار القرار ‪ 1368‬يوم ‪ 12‬سممبتمبر ‪2001‬‬ ‫) ‪(2‬‬ ‫والذي أقر صراحة " الستعداد لخذ أي خطوات ضرورية للرد على هجمات ‪ 11‬سبتمبر" ثم سارعت أمريكا إلى أفغانستان‪.‬‬ ‫دبعد التهاوى السريع لطالبان ظن الجميع دبمن فيهم مقاتلي طالبان أنفسهم أنها اذهبت دبغير ررجعة‪ .‬تم قتل الكممثير مممن الطالبممان ومن‬ ‫نجا منهم هرب إلى دباثكستان حيث أصادبتهم المراض النفسية من رجراء صدمة السقوط المهول للدولة التي نشأت على أيممديهم واتجه دبعضممهم إلممى مهممن‬ ‫مثل دبيع البطاطس في السوق دبعد أن ثكان مسئولا دبارزاا في حكومة طالبان‪ .‬على النقيض من اذلك ثكان تحالف الشمال‪ ،‬فعلى الرغم من اغتيال قائدة أحمد‬ ‫شاه مسعود قبل هجمات سبتمبر دبيومين‪ ،‬فقد عاد مقاتليه إلى ثكادبول تحفهم الددبادبات الغردبية وتم انتخاب حامد ثكرزاي رئيسمماا وتممم تعييممن دبمماقي العضمماء‬ ‫البارزين في مختلف مناصب الحكومة‪ .‬لقد ثكان تحالف الشمال قبل هذا مدعوم اا دبالهند وضمد دباثكسممتان المتي دعممت طالبمان ممما وضمعه فمي ص دام ممع‬

‫دباثكستان ورجعل الهند من أثكبر المشارثكين في عمليات إعادة أعمار أفغانستان‪ .‬في منتصف ‪ 2004‬دبدأت طالبان خطواتها على طريق إعادة تجميع‬ ‫قواتها‪ .‬ولقد ثكان أثكبر ما ساعد طالبان في عودتها ه و الحكومة المرثكزية نفسها في ثكادبول وحلفاؤها‪ .‬لقد قممامت الحكومممة منممذ توليهمما السمملطة دبانتهاثكممات‬ ‫ثكثيرة وانتشر الفساد والقتل وإهانه الم واطنين الفغان تحت اسم البحث عن دبقايا طالبان‪ .‬أدى هذا إلممى أن إنضممم الفغممان إلممى طالبممان طلبمما ا للنتقممام مممن‬ ‫إهانات الحكومة المرثكزية‪ .‬دبدأت الخبار تتوالى عن هجمات طالبان وتصاعد حمدتها حممتى منتصممف ‪ 2006‬حينممما دبممدأت الهجمممات تصممبح أثكممثر رجممرأة‬ ‫)‪(3‬‬ ‫وأثكثر إيلماا وتأثكد للجميع أن طالبان قادمة ل محالة‪.‬‬ ‫‪“Afghanistan: Post-Taliban Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy”, Kenneth Katzman, October 6, 2009.‬‬ ‫‪“The Taliban in their own words” Newsweek, Published Sep 26, 2009From the magazine issue dated Oct 5, 2009.‬‬ ‫‪“A turnround strategy” By Fareed Zakaria, NEWSWEEK Published Jan 31, 2009 From the magazine issue dated Feb 9, 2009.‬‬

‫‪1.‬‬ ‫‪2.‬‬ ‫‪3.‬‬

‫أسباب عودة طالبان‬ ‫ـــــ‬

‫‪:‬الخطاء العسكرية‬‫هناك أسباب ثكثيرة يمكن أن تكون قد سببت تممدهور الوضممع فممي أفغانسممتان ولكممن أثكبرهمما قممد يكممون حقيقممة أن القمموات الممتي تقممود‬ ‫العمليات المنية ليست أفغانية فهي إما أمريكية أو تادبعة للناتو‪ .‬في شهر مايو ‪ ،2006‬علقت قوة أمريكية في اشتباك مع مقاتلي طالبان ولممم تخممرج منممه إل‬ ‫دبعد قصف رجوي دبعد ‪ 6‬ساعات‪ .‬المثير للهتمام هو أن السكان المحليين هناك ثكانوا يسارعون لخذ سلحهم والنضممام للمعرثكمة ضمد المريكمان ممع أن‬ ‫السكان لم يكونوا ينتمون لطالبان‪ .‬دبعد سؤالهم لحقاا قالوا أنهم لم يفعلوا اذلك تأييداا لطالبان ول ثكراهية لمريكا ولكن عدم اشتراثكهم في المعرثكة ثكان ليكون‬ ‫)‪(1‬‬ ‫مخزي اا لذا ثكان لزاما عليهم أن يشارثكوا ودبالطبع لم يكونوا ليشارثكوا في صف الرجانب لذا تدخلوا و لصالح طادبان‪.‬‬ ‫قوات اليساف أيض اا ل تقوم دبعمليات تغطمي ثكمل رقعمة أفغانسممتان دبطريقمة ثكافيممة‪ ،‬ثكمما أنهمم غالبماا مما يخطئممون فمى التمييممز دبيمن‬ ‫الصراعات القبلية العادية من أرجل الموارد المحدودة ودبين نشاطات طالبان‪ .‬ثكما أنهم نادراا ما يتوارجدون لي ا‬ ‫ل حينما تقوم عناصر طالبان دبالنشمماط ثكممما أنهممم‬ ‫غالب اا ما يرثكزون على حماية أنفسهم وليس حماية المواطن الفغاني مما يجعله يبحث لنفسه عن دبديل لحماية نفسه‪ .‬ثكمما أن قموات اليسماف غالبما ا مما تلجمأ‬ ‫للدعم الجوي الذي يوقع الكثير من الضحايا من المدنيين‪ ،‬ثكما أنها ل تحاول النهوض دبالجيش والشرطة الوطنية في أفغانستان لكي يشارثكوهم عبء القتال‬ ‫)‪(2‬‬ ‫هناك‪.‬‬ ‫ل ننسى أن قدرات قوات التحالف تتفاوت دبدررجة ثكبيرة من مكان لخر في مسرح العمليات إلى رجانب نقممص التممدريب قبممل وأثنمماء‬ ‫إرسال القوات إلى مسرح العمليات فليست هناك طريقة يتم تدريب الجنود عليها من أرجل موارجهة عمليمات طالبمان‪ .‬ثكمما أن العمليمات العسمكرية نمادراا مما‬ ‫تتسم دبالتناسق مع المجهودات المدنية دبل تؤدي غالب اا إلى آثار عكسية‪ .‬إلى رجانب اذلك فل يورجد تكتيممك مممن أرجممل التنسمميق مممع القمموات الفغانيممة دبممما يحقممق‬ ‫)‪(2‬‬ ‫النتيجة المررجوة‪.‬‬ ‫ل يمكن أن نغفل عن القتلى المدنيين في الهجمات الجوية حيث أنها المسئولة عن معظم الوفيات في صفوف الممدنيين المتي تتسممبب‬ ‫فيها قوات تادبعة للحكومة‪ .‬في الفترة من يناير وحتى يونيو ‪ 2009‬سجلت دبعثة المم المتحدة في أفغانستان ‪ 200‬حالمة وفماة دبيمن الممدنيين رجمراء الهجممات‬ ‫الجوية‪ .‬هذا العدد يمثل ‪ %64.5‬من مجموع وفيات المدنيين التي سببتها قوات تادبعة للحكومة المرثكزية أو ‪ %20‬من مجموع وفيات المدنيين دبيممن طرفممي‬ ‫القتال البالغ عددها ‪ 1013‬قتي ا‬ ‫ل‪ .‬هذا الرقم أقل قليلا من الرقم المسجل طوال عام ‪ 2008‬ولكن الرقم مازال يرتفممع و ثكممل هممذا يخلممق المئممات مممن القممارب‬ ‫المتعطشين للنتقام والدماء‪.‬‬

‫التعامل الخاطئ مع طالبان‪:‬‬ ‫لقد تكبدت حرثكة طالبان الكثير من الخسائر والقتلى أثناء الهجمموم المريكممي فمي أثكتممودبر ونوفمممبر ‪ .2001‬البقيممة الممتي اسممتطاعت‬ ‫الهرب من الموت أثناء الهجوم أو أفلتت من القبض عليها دبواسطة قوات تحالف الشمال انقسمت إلمى ثلث مجموعمات ‪ :‬قسمم صمغير انضمم إلمى ثكمرزاى‬ ‫وأصبح رجزء اا من الحكومة والمرثكزية‪ .‬مجموعة أخرى صغيرة انضمت إلى المل عمر وهردبت وفضلت الختباء متحينين فرصة للررجمموع‪ .‬دبينممما الجممزء‬ ‫الثكبر عادوا إلى قراهم في أفغانستان أو معسكرات اليواء التى تنتشر في دباثكستان وحاولوا ممارسة حياة طبيعية‪ .‬ولكن النخراط في الحياة الطبيعية ثكان‬ ‫صعبا ا دبالنسبة لهؤلء‪.‬‬ ‫‪“Getting the Basics Right: A Discussion on Tactical Actions for Strategic Impact in Afghanistan Trent Scott and John Agoglia.” Small Wars Journal, 2008.‬‬

‫‪1.‬‬

‫‪“A F G H A N I S T A N, Mid Year Bulletin on Protection of, Civilians in Armed Conflict, 2009.” United Nations Assistance Mission to Afghanistan, Human Rights Unit,‬‬

‫‪2.‬‬

‫‪July 2009.‬‬

‫حيث أنهم ل يستطيعون التخلص من لقب مقاتلى طالبان على الرغم من قول ثكرزاى "لن يكون هناك انتقام"‪ .‬هؤلء الممذين فممي دباثكسممتان تمممت‬ ‫مطاردتهم دبواسطة المخادبرات الباثكستانية من أرجل قبض المكافآت المريكية المسيلة للعاب وانتهى الحال دبكثير منهم في رجوانتنامو‪ .‬هؤلء ال ذين دبقمموا ف ي‬ ‫أفغانستان تم القبض عليهم دبواسطة قوات الشرطة الفغانية وميليشيات تحالف الشمال المناوئة لهم‪ .‬دبينما هؤلء الذين أفلتمموا فشمملوا فممي إيجمماد وظيفممة مممما‬ ‫سهل على قادة طالبان إعادة تجنيدهم ‪.‬‬ ‫هناك أيض اا الحديث عن المعاملة غير النسانية لسرى طالبان الذين تم القبض عليهم خاصة دبواسطة قوات دستم‪ ،‬حيث يتم تممداول‬ ‫أقاويل دبأن اللف منهم قد قتلوا أثناء نقلهم من قندوز إلى مكان دستم في شبررجان‪ .‬لم يتم التحقيق في هذه القاويل مطلقاا سواء دبواسطة حكومة ثكرزاى أو‬ ‫حتى المم المتحدة‪ ،‬ولم يتم تقديم أحد للمحاثكمة وطبقاا لحد المصادر فإن قوات دستم قبضت على ‪ 8000‬فرد من طالبان‪ ،‬مات منهممم حمموالي ‪ 4000‬أثنمماء‬ ‫)‪(1‬‬ ‫نقلهم لماثكن الحتجاز مما يعني عشرات اللف من القارب المتعطشين للنتقام‪.‬‬

‫الدور الباثكستانى‪:‬‬

‫لسنوات قامت حكومة قرضاى دبالقاء اللوم على دباثكستان لتقديمها الدعم لحرثكة طالبان منذ البداية‪ .‬ومع اذلك ‪ ،‬تم تجاهلها من قبل إدارة دبمموش ‪،‬‬ ‫مع استثناء من زلماي خليل زاد ‪,‬الممثل الخاص للرئيس المريكي رجورج دبوش إلى أفغانستان‪ ,‬الذي ثكان صريحا رجدا في انتقاداته لنظام مشرف‪ .‬لكن في‬ ‫أواخر عام ‪ 2006‬وفي وقت مبكر من عام ‪ 2007‬دبدأت الحكومة المريكية فى ممارسة الضغط على مشرف للحد من أنشطة طالبممان فممي دباثكسممتان‪ .‬ليممس‬ ‫من المؤثكد ما إاذا ثكانت الحكومة الباثكستانية تدعم وتساعد طالبان دبنشاط ‪ ،‬ولكن اذلك هو الثكثر احتمال‪ .‬أحمد رشيد ‪ ،‬الصحفي والكاتب الباثكستاني الشهير‬ ‫‪ ،‬يعتقد أن نظام مشرف لعب لعبة مزدورجة دبعد تغييره لموقفه والنضمام الى "الحرب على الرهمماب‪ ".‬فبينمما لحمق دبقمموة فلمول القاعممدة ‪ ،‬فمإنه أيمد دبقمموة‬ ‫حرثكة طالبان ليس فقط للدبقاء على اهتمام الوليات المتحدة دبالمنطقة فحسب ‪ ،‬دبل أيضا لتكون قادرة على لعب دور في الحياة السياسية الفغانية المقبلة‪.‬‬ ‫حكومة قرضاى قلصت انتقادها لحكومة الرئيس مشرف في السنوات الخيرة ‪ ،‬خاصة دبعد مؤتمر رجيرغا للسلم أغسطس ‪ 2007‬في ثكادبول و‬ ‫إعلن طالبان الباثكستانية الحرب ضد مشرف مما قد يعني أن الضغوط المريكية ثكانت فعالة‪ .‬ومع اذلك ‪ ،‬يبدو أن المشمكلة خررجمت ممن سميطرة دباثكسممتان‬ ‫والوليات المتحدة‪ .‬المنطقة ثكلها على امتداد الحدود الفغانية الباثكستانية تحت سيطرة طالبان وحرثكة طالبان الفغانية ل تتمتع دبدعم هائل فحسممب ‪ ،‬ولكممن‬ ‫أيضا لديها ملرجئ ومعسكرات تدريب هناك ‪ ،‬وتستخدم المنطقة لنقل السلحة والمممدادات الخممرى ‪ ،‬دبممل ولتجنيممد الباثكسممتانيين الشممباب‪ .‬حملت مشممرف‬ ‫العسكرية ضد طالبان القبلية قد فشلت فشل اذريعا ‪ ،‬مما اضطره للدخول في "اتفاقيات السلم" التي تعني إطلق اليد لحرثكة طالبان الفغانية في المنطقممة‪.‬‬ ‫نتيجة لذلك حاولت الوليات المتحدة القيام دببعض العمليات عبر الحدود ‪ ،‬ولكممن نظممرا لحساسممية الشممعب الباثكسممتاني تجمماه الوليممات المتحممدة ‪ ،‬فممإن نظممام‬ ‫مشرف ومن دبعده الحكومة الباثكستانية المنتخبة حديثا قد أصروا ودبشدة على معارضة مثل هذه العمليات‪.‬‬ ‫سياسة دباثكستان في افغانستان يحكمها دبشكل ثكبير مخاوفها من منافسها التقليدى ‪ ،‬الهند فباثكستان تنظر إلى نظام طالبان على أنه يقدم لباثكسممتان‬ ‫عمقا استراتيجيا ضد خصمها اللدود الهند‪ .‬ودباثكستان ‪ ،‬على ما يبدو ل تزال تشعر دبالقلق من أن الحكومة الفغانية الحالية قممد تصممبح تحممت سمميطرة الهنممد‪.‬‬ ‫العديد من الجماعات المتشددة مثل عسكر طيبة تشكلت في دباثكستان لتحدي سيطرة الهند على رجزء من الراضي المتنازع عليها في ولية رجامو وثكشمممير‪.‬‬ ‫يعتقد دبعض المراقبين ان دباثكستان تريد الحتفاظ دبالقدرة على تأرجيج هؤلء المسلحين ضد الهند ‪ ،‬على الرغم من أن هؤلء المقاتلين قد يساعدوا الجماعات‬ ‫السلمية على تحدي سلطة الحكومة نفسها دبل و حتى الجيش في دباثكستان‪.‬‬ ‫تقول دباثكستان ان الهند تستخدم سفارتها وقنصلياتها الردبعة في أفغانستان )وتدعى دباثكستان ان الهند لديها تسع قنصليات(‬ ‫‪“Resurgence of the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan: How and Why?” 50th annual convention of ISA, New York, Feb. 15-18, 2009.‬‬

‫‪1.‬‬

‫لتدريب وتوظيف مسلحين يعملون ضد دباثكستان ‪ ،‬ثكما تتهمها دباستخدام أموال إعادة العمار لشراء النفواذ هناك‪ .‬مسؤولون افغان قالوا إن لديهم أدلة علممى‬ ‫أن وثكلء المخادبرات العسكرية الباثكستانية ثكانوا متورطين في تفجيرات ‪ 7‬يوليو ‪ 2008‬التى استهدفت تفجير سفارة الهند في ثكادبول ‪ ،‬لموارجهة هذا النفواذ‪.‬‬ ‫في شأن متصل دبذلك الفعل ‪ ،‬وارجه مسؤولون أمريكيممون ‪ ،‬فمي يوليممو ‪ ، 2008‬المسمؤولين الباثكسممتانيين فمي دباثكسممتان دبأدلمة علمى أن وثكالمة السمتخبارات‬ ‫العسكرية الباثكستانية تساعد دبنشاط المسلحين داخل أفغانستان ‪ ،‬لسيما فصيل حقاني‪.‬‬ ‫دبالنسبة لعلقات طويلة المد ‪ ،‬دباثكستان تريد أن تقوم الحكومة الفغانية دبالتعهد على اللتزام دبخط دوراند و هو اتفاق الحدود الذي تم التوصممل‬ ‫إليه دبين دبريطانيا )وقع عليها السير هنري مورتيمر دوراند( و الزعيم الفغانى أمير عبد الرحمن خان فممي عممام ‪ ، 1893‬وفصممل أفغانسممتان عممن ممما ثكممان‬ ‫يعرف آنذاك دبالهند البريطانية )في وقت لحق دباثكستان دبعد تقسيم ‪ (1947‬وهو المر المعترف دبه من قبل المم المتحدة ‪ ،‬ولكن أفغانسممتان ل تممزال تشممير‬ ‫إلى أن ترسيم الحدود تم دبصورة غير عادلة لقبائل البشتون التى تم فصلها ‪ ،‬وينبغي التفاوض دبشأنها‪ .‬ادبتداء من شهر أثكتودبر عام ‪ ، 2002‬عاد نحممو ‪1.75‬‬ ‫مليون لرجئ أفغاني من دباثكستان منذ سقوط حرثكة طالبان ‪ ،‬ولكن مايزيد عن مليون لرجئ ل يزالون مورجودين في دباثكستان ‪ ،‬وتقممول دباثكسممتان انهمما تعممتزم‬ ‫اعادتهم الى أفغانستان في المستقبل القريب‪.‬‬

‫‪:‬ضعف الحكومة الفغانية‬ ‫لقد أثبت قرضاى أنه زعيم غير ثكفء و غير مسؤول‪ .‬فلم يكفه أنه يفتقر الرؤية الستراتيجية ‪ ،‬دبل أيضا يعيبه نقممص الحسممم اللزم ‪ ،‬ثكممما أنممه‬ ‫عارجز عن احتواء النقسامات داخل الحكومة التي ورثها عن مؤتمر دبون ‪ ،‬وثكذلك تلك دبين الذين عينهم هو نفسه‪ .‬الحكومة النتقالية الممتي اتفممق عليهمما فممي‬ ‫دبون تتألف من مجموعتين أولهما المجاهدين السادبقين ‪ ،‬وخاصة أعضاء تحالف الشمال‪ .‬ثانيهما التكنوقراط "الفغان" الذين عاشوا في المنفممى فممي البلممدان‬ ‫الغردبية أو ثكانوا يعملون مع المنظمات غير الحكومية‪ .‬في تسميته الوزراء للحقائب الوزارية المختلفة ‪ ،‬استمر ثكرزاي فى العتماد دبصممورة رئيسممية علممى‬ ‫هاتين المجموعتين من النخب‪ .‬ومع اذلك ‪ ،‬نظرا لختلف الخلفيات الرجتماعية والسياسية ‪ ،‬فضل عن مختلف التجارب في العقمود القليلمة الماضممية ‪ ،‬فمإن‬ ‫المجموعتين فشلتا في التناغم رجيدا منذ البداية ‪ ،‬وتدهور الوضع دبمرور الزمن‪ .‬ما رجعل المر أثكثر سوءا ثكان الترثكيبة العرقية فممي ثكممل مجموعممة‪ .‬أثكثريممة‬ ‫التكنوقراط من البشتون وثكان معظم المجاهدين من غير البشتون ‪ ،‬والتنافس دبين النخب الطائفية والعرقية وازع يفرض نفسه‪ .‬عندما أعلن الرئيس ثكرزاي‬ ‫‪ ،‬دبدعم نشط من خليل زاد ‪ ،‬تصحيح الخلل في التوازن العرقي الصلي في مجلس الوزراء ‪ ،‬تم تفسير تصرفاته على انها معادية للمجاهممدين مممن أعضمماء‬ ‫التحالف الشمالى السادبق وزادت من حدة التوتر في مجلس الوزراء‪ .‬وعلوة على اذلك ‪ ،‬فإن قرضاي وخليل زاد ثكلهما من البشتون ‪ ،‬وتممم فهممم ممما دبممذله‬ ‫من رجهود على أنه تهميش للمجموعات العرقية الخرى‪.‬‬

‫‪:‬الجيش و الشرطة الفغانية‬ ‫حتى منتصف عام ‪ ، 2006‬فإن المجتمع الدولي ثكان يبدو أثكثر اهتماما دبورجود قوات "التحالف" في أفغانستان ‪ ،‬دبدل مممن ورجممود رجيممش وطنممي‬ ‫قوي ولكن منذ اذلك الحين ‪ ،‬يبدو أن هناك تقدما رجوهريا‪ .‬في منتصف مايو ‪ ، 2008‬أعلن المتحدث دباسم وزارة الدفاع الفغانية في مؤتمر صحفي ان قمموة‬ ‫الجيش وصلت إلى ‪ 76600‬رجندي وضادبط‪ .‬ومع اذلك ‪ ،‬فإنه من غيمر المؤثكممد مممتى سمميكون الجيمش لمه القمدرة علمى العممل دبشممكل مسممتقل ‪ ،‬أو حمتى إلمى‬ ‫الضطلع دبدور رئيسي في الحرب ضد طالبان)‪ . (1‬على سبيل المثال ‪ ،‬دبعد أيام قليلة من العلن السادبق اذثكره ‪ ،‬أفممادت قمموة المسمماعدة المنيممة الدوليممة ان‬ ‫الجيش الوطني الفغاني قد حقق أول تدريب دبالمدفعية دبالذخيرة الحيممة تحممت إشمراف ممن قمموات حلممف شممال الطلسممي و قموة المسمماعدة المنيممة الدوليمة‬ ‫)ايساف(‪ .‬ومن المؤثكد أن الطريق طويل رجدا من أول "مناورة دبالذخيرة الحية" من قبل وحدة واحدة تحت إشراف مرشدين حتى يمكن للجيممش ثكلممه تحمممل‬ ‫المسؤولية ثكاملة في ميدان المعرثكة‪ .‬نقص المعدات ‪ ،‬وخصوصا المدفعية وسلح الجو‪ ،‬مشكلة خطيرة أخرى‪.‬‬ ‫‪“Resurgence of the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan: How and Why?” 50th annual convention of ISA, New York, Feb. 15-18,‬‬

‫‪1.‬‬

‫الشرطة في وضع أسوأ‪ ,‬فالقائد السادبق للقوات الكندية في أفغانستان قدر في منتصممف مممايو ‪ 2008‬أن قمموات الشممرطة ثكممانت متممأخرة دبحمموالي ثلث‬

‫سنوات عن الجيش في تنميتها‪ .‬هناك أيضا العديد من التقارير عن وحشية الشرطة ‪ ،‬والفساد ‪ ،‬وغياب النظام والنضباط ‪ ،‬وعدم الكفاءة ‪ ،‬دبل وحتى‬ ‫القتل خارج نطاق القضاء‪.‬‬

‫‪:‬رجهود إعادة العمار‬ ‫هناك الكثير من الحديث من قبل المجتمع الدولي حول أن الفوز دبقلوب وعقول الفغان من خلل مشمماريع إعممادة العمممار والتنميممة ‪ ،‬ضممروري مممن أرجممل‬ ‫النتصار ومكافحة التمرد‪ .‬ومع اذلك‪ ,‬فعلى أرض الواقع‪ ،‬هناك عدد قليل رجدا من المثلة تدل على مشاريع تتنمية نارجحة‪ .‬التوقعات الكبيرة التي ثكان يأملها‬ ‫الشعب الفغاني دبعد سقوط حرثكة طالبان ‪ ،‬وفيض الوعود الدولية تحولت الى خيبة أمل ثكئيبة‪ .‬هناك عدة مشاثكل مع المساعدة الدوليمة‪ .‬فمي البدايممة ‪ ،‬حجمم‬ ‫المساعدات التى تعهدت دبها الدول المانحة هو أقل دبكثير مما هو مطلوب‪ .‬الحكومة الفغانية في الصل قدرت التكلفة الرجمالية لعممادة العمممار دبنحممو ‪30‬‬ ‫مليار دولر‪ ,‬في مايو ‪ ، 2008‬ومع اذلك فإنه تم الكشف عن أنه دبالضافة إلى المساعدات التي صرفت حتى الن ‪ ،‬سوف تطلب مممن المجتمممع الممدولي ‪50‬‬ ‫مليار دولر لتمويل خطة تنموية لمدة خمس سنوات‪ .‬ثانيا ‪ ،‬ليست رجميع التعهدات يتم الوفاء دبها‪ .‬وفقا لدراسة من قبل هيئممة التنسمميق دبيممن وثكممالت الغاثممة‬ ‫الفغانية‪ ،‬حتى دبداية عام ‪ 2008‬حجم التعهدات دبلغ ‪ 25‬مليار دولر ‪ ،‬في حين ل تتعدى المبالغ التى تم صرفها ‪ 15‬مليار دولر‪ .‬والمشكلة الثالثممة هممي أن‬ ‫نسبة ثكبيرة من هذه المبالغ تذهب مرة أخرى إلى الدول المانحة من خلل التعاقد من الباطن ورواتب عالية للغاية‪ .‬تضخم النفقات العامة مممن قبممل وثكممالت‬ ‫الغاثة التادبعة للمم المتحدة ‪ ،‬والمنظمات غير الحكومية هي مصدر آخر يمتص ثكمية ثكبيرة من المساعدات الدوليممة‪ .‬غيماب الشمفافية والمسمائلة أدى إلمى‬ ‫تفاقم هذه المشكلة‪ .‬هناك أيضا نقص في التنسيق الشامل للمساعدة الدولية‪ .‬نوع المشاريع التي تم اختيارها هي في ثكثير من الحيان مشكلة أيضمما‪ .‬أخيممرا ‪،‬‬ ‫تفشي الفساد في المنظمات غير الحكومية والحكومة الفغانية يعني أن ثكمية صغيرة من المساعدات هى التي تتمكن من الوصول فممي نهايممة المطمماف إلممى‬ ‫الشعب)‪.(1‬‬ ‫نتيجة للفشل في إعادة العمار والتنمية انتشر الفقر والبطالة‪ .‬وفقا "لتقرير التنمية البشرية لفغانستان عام ‪ "، 2007‬أفغانسممتان رجمماءت فممى الممترتيب ‪174‬‬ ‫من ‪ 178‬دولة على مؤشر التنمية البشرية العالمي‪ .‬ويشير التقرير أيضا إلى أن أثكمثر ممن ‪ 6.5‬مليممون أفغمماني "ل يتمم تلبيمة الحمد الدنمى ممن احتيارجمماتهم‬ ‫الغذائية ؛ وأن هناك ارتفاعا دبمقدار ‪ ٪ 59‬من المساحة المزروعة دبالخشخاش فى البلد الرائدة على مستوى العمالم فمي انتمماج الفيممون )‪ ٪ 90‬مممن النتمماج‬ ‫العالمي(‪ .‬ووفقا لبعض التقارير الخرى ‪ ،‬فمإن سموء اسمتخدام المسماعدات الخاررجيمة و السياسمات القتصمادية الخاطئمة المنصموص عليهما ف ي الدسمتور‬ ‫الفغاني ‪ ،‬أدى إلى مستوى غير مسبوق من عدم المساواة في المجتمع الفغاني‪ .‬ثكل هذه ‪ ،‬رجنبا إلى رجنب مع المستوى الجامح وغير المسممبوق مممن الفسمماد‬ ‫الرسمي‪.‬‬

‫‪1“Resurgence of the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan: How and Why?” 50th annual convention of ISA, New York, Feb. 15-18, 2009.‬‬

‫الحلول المطروحة للتعامل مع طالبان أفغانستان‬ ‫سوف يكون على الوليات المتحدة وحلفائها ايجاد سياسة رجديدة لكسب الحرب‪ .‬النسممحاب ل يجممب أن يكممون خيممارا مطروحمما‪ .‬والوليممات المتحممدة‬ ‫وحلف شمال الطلسي والتحاد الورودبي ‪ ،‬ودول أخرى استثمروا دبشكل مكثف فمي اسمتقرار البلمد عل ى ممدى السمنوات الثمماني الماضمية ‪ ،‬وانهمم لمن ‪،‬‬ ‫ويجب أل يتخلوا عنه‪ .‬هناك ثلث طرق رئيسية لتغيير الوضاع المنية في أفغانستان‪ .‬أول ‪ ،‬زيادة القوات الدولية و على رأسها المريكية‪ .‬ثانيمما ‪ ،‬زيممادة‬ ‫القوات الفغانية‪ .‬الثالثة ‪ ،‬تقليص عدد قوات العدو دبجعلها تبممدل ولئاتهمما دبيممن الجممانبين أو دبإلقممائهم أسمملحتهم‪ .‬عممن طريممق تحسممين الظممروف المنيممة ثكافممة‬ ‫الظروف الخرى سوف تتحسن‪ .‬إن ورجود أفغانستان مستقرة من شأنه رجذب المزيد والمزيد من الستثمارات الرجنبية وتشجيع المزيد من المؤسسات على‬ ‫)‪(1‬‬ ‫استثمار أموالها في أفغانستان‪.‬‬ ‫التفاوض مع طالبان هو واحد من الموضوعات الساخنة في أمريكا في الوقت الحاضر ‪ ،‬ثكما انها تحمل الكثير من الممال فمي النهايمة لوضمع حمد للحمرب‬ ‫الهلية الفغانية والبدء في دبناء قواعد المستقبل لهذا البلد‪.‬قد يبدو ممن الصمعب تحقيممق اذلمك لكنمه ل يمزال غيمر مسمتحيل‪ .‬ف ي مقادبل ة نشمرت فمي ص حيفة‬ ‫دبوليتيكن الدنمارثكية قال أندرس فوغ راسموسين قائد حلف شمال الطلسي‪ ,‬إن هناك مجموعات داخل حرثكة طالبان المذين مممن الممكمن التفماوض معهممم ‪،‬‬ ‫ودبالتالى خلق المصالحة في أفغانستان‪ .‬وأضاف أنه واضح أيضا أن هناك نواة صلبة داخممل حرثكممة طالبممان تحممترم القمموة العسممكرية فقممط ول تورجممد هنمماك‬ ‫إمكانية للتفاق معها‪.‬‬ ‫زيادة عدد القوات في أفغانستان هى أيضا واحدة من الطرق الرئيسية التي تحاول أمريكا اتباعها‪ .‬الزيممادة فممي عمدد القمموات قمد تكممون عمن طريممق إضممافة‬ ‫القوات الميرثكية الجديدة أو قوات من حلف شمال الطلسي‪ .‬البعض يقول أن اذلك من شأنه أن يؤدي إلى تحقيق الستقرار في أفغانستان ‪ ،‬ورجعل الشممعب‬ ‫الفغاني يشعر دبالمان فسيكون هناك رجندي يحرس شيء ما أو شخص ما في ثكل مكان‪ .‬على الجانب الخر يقول دبعض المحللين أن أي زيادة في القمموات‬ ‫الرجنبية في أفغانستان قد تؤدي إلى تصاعد نبرة الحرثكات القومية مع رؤية الفغان لهؤلء الرجانب ثكغزاة وإلى دبدء المزيد والمزيد من الهجمات‪ .‬ثكما أنممه‬ ‫قد يدفع العديد من مقاتلي طالبان إلى الفرار من أفغانستان إلى دباثكستان و هذا من شأنه أن يؤدي إلى مزيد من التدهور المنى فى دباثكستان‪.‬‬ ‫إعادة العمار في أفغانستان مسألة أخرى‪ .‬يجب أن تستثمر أمريكا المزيد من الموال لبناء الدولممة الفغانيممة الحديثممة ‪ .‬البعممض يقممول ان أمريكمما يجممب أن‬ ‫تشارك في عملية إعادة العمار لن النسحاب من أفغانستان ل يعني سوى شيء واحد أل وهو عمودة حرثكممة طالبممان ‪ ،‬دبممل وحممتى تنظيممم القاعمدة ودبممذلك‬ ‫ستبدأ الدورة من رجديد‪ .‬على العكس من اذلك ‪ ،‬دبعض الراء الخرى ترى أن الهدف في أفغانستان ثكان هزيمة القاعدة ومنعها من تنظيممم أي هجمممات ضممد‬ ‫الوليات المتحدة ‪ ،‬وقد ثكانت هذه مهمة نارجحة حتى الن‪.‬ثكل ما على أمريكا أن تفعله هو أن تجعل عودة تنظيم القاعدة في أفغانستان صعبا والحيلولممة دون‬ ‫تحولها إلى ملاذ آمن للرهادبيين‪ .‬تحويل أفغانستان الى دولة حديثة نارجحة يجب أن يكون مسؤولية دولية وليس مسئولية أمريكية‪.‬‬ ‫وعندما توافق أمريكا على تقديم مساعدات لفغانستان فالمسألة ستظل "ما الجهة التي ينبغي أن تأخذ هذه المساعدات؟" هل يجب أن تعطى للمممم المتحممدة‬ ‫ثكطرف محايد وموثوق الجانب للسيطرة على ثكميات ضخمة من الموال التي تذهب إلى أفغانستان‪ .‬هل من الفضممل إعطائهمما للمنظمممات غيممر الحكوميممة‬ ‫مثل منظمة الصحة العالمية التى يمكن الوثوق دبها؟ ولكن أل يزال هذا من شأنه أن يثير الشكوك في المجتمع الفغاني؟ هل ينبغي أن تعطى مباشممرة إلممى‬ ‫الحكومة الفغانية غير الموثوق دبها على الطلق؟ أفكار ثكثيرة والكثير من السبل التي يمكن أن تقطعها الحرب فمي أفغانسممتان ‪ ،‬واشمنطن عليهمما أن تتخمذ‬ ‫العديد من القرارات‪.‬‬ ‫‪(1) “The way out of Afghanistan.” Fareed Zakaria, Newsweek, Sep., 12th, 2009.‬‬

‫طالبان باكستان‬ ‫قبل احداث ‪ 11‬سبتمبر ‪2001‬‬ ‫دبعد انسحاب القوات السوفيتية تهاوت الحكومة التى ثكانوا يدعمونها في عام ‪ 1992‬وخسرت ثكادبول لصالح المجاهممدين‬ ‫فقاموا دبتأليف حكومة رجديدة دبرئاسة دبرهان الدين ردباني مؤقتا وعلي الرغم من هذا إل أن مختلف الفصائل لم تتمكن من التعمماون‬ ‫وشطوا رجميعا إلي قتال دبعضهم البعمض وتحمولت أفغانسمتان إل ي مجموعمة ممن الراض الواقعمة تح ت سميطرة أممراء الح رب‬ ‫المتنافسين ووقعت الحرب الهلية ‪.‬‬ ‫تجمع دبعض الطلب الدينيين ونظموا أنفسهم مستغلين الرادبط الديني من أرجل موارجهة الحرب الهلية وفضممها ودبممالرغم‬ ‫من عددهم الكبير وقوتهم النسبية إل إنهم لم يظهروا ثككيان واحد متكامل حتى قامت طالبان دبحرثكتها في قندهار عام ‪ .1994‬فممي‬ ‫نهاية ‪ 1994‬قامت مجموعة من طالبان ثكان قد تم تدريبها علي يد دباثكستان دبتأمين قافلة تجارية أمليمن فمى تمأمين طريمق تجماري‬ ‫يردبط دباثكستان دبوسط آسيا وقد أثبت هذه المجموعة قدرتها مما أوضمح قمدرتها عل ي منافسمة مجاهمدين الم س وأممراء الح رب‬ ‫اليوم‪.‬‬ ‫ولهذا السبب الرئيسي دعمت دباثكستان نشأة طالبان حيث أنهم ثكانوا دبحارجة إلي إقامة علقة مستقرة مع حكومة أفغانيممة‬ ‫تضمن لهم حماية وسلمة تجارتهم ولكنهم لم يستطيعوا تحقيق هذا طوال فترة حكومة ردباني و مسمعود‪ .‬ثكمان دعمم دباثكسمتان له م‬ ‫هو السبب الرئيسي وراء اتجاههم ناحية احتلل قندهار ودخول ثكادبول في سبتمبر عام ‪ 1996‬والذي ثكان حدثا مفارجمأ للعمالم ولممم‬ ‫يدعم طالبان غير دباثكستان والمملكة العردبية السعودية والمارات العردبية المتحدة‪.‬‬

‫‪:‬دبعد أحداث ‪ 11‬سبتمبر‬ ‫وارجهت سياسة طالبان إدانة عالمية مما أدى الى ترارجع المارات و السعودية عن اظهار الدعم لهم و قاموا دبقطع‬ ‫العلقات الددبلوماسية معهم إل أن دعم دباثكستان استمر‪ .‬دبعممد أحمداث ‪ 11‬سممبتمبر طمالبت أمريكما طالبممان دبتسمليم دبممن لدن و قمادة‬ ‫منظمة القاعدة لمحاثكمتهم على مسئوليتهم في الحادثمة إل أن طالبمان رفضمت ممما أدى إلمى إعلن الحممرب علمى أفغانسمتان فمي‬ ‫اثكتودبر ‪ . 2001‬و دبدأت أمريكا دبضرب القواعد الطالبانية العسكرية و دعممم التحممالف الشمممالي مممما أدي إلممى أن خسممرت طالبممان‬ ‫ثكادبول في ‪ 21‬نوفمبر دبعد انسحاب مخز لم يترك لهم ما يحفظون دبه ماء الورجه‪.‬‬ ‫‪ .‬في سبتمبر ‪ ، 2006‬وقع الرئيس الباثكستاني الجنممرال دبرويممز مشمرف اتفماق سمملم مممثير للجممدل مممع سممبع رجماعممات متشممددة ‪،‬‬ ‫يطلقون على انفسممهم اسممم "طالبممان دباثكسممتان"‪ .‬مممما ادى إلممى أن وافممق الجيممش الباثكسممتاني علممى النسممحاب مممن المنطقممة الممتى‬ ‫يسيطرون عليهما والسمماح لطالبمان دبحكمهما وفقما لقمانون الشمريعة السملمية ‪ ،‬طالمما أنهما أعط ت وعمدا دبعمدم التوغمل العممق‬ ‫الباثكستانى‪ .‬دبررت الحكومية الباثكستانية هذا التفاق على أساس انه ل يتعارض مع الدستور الذى ينممص علممى أل تتنممافى قمموانين‬ ‫الدولة مع الشريعة السلمية‪ .‬فى نفس الوقت فإن هذا التفاق سيسمح للحكومة الباثكستانية دبأن تعمل على إضعاف الرتبماط دبيممن‬ ‫طالبان و القاعدة‪ .‬ل يستطيع أحد أن يتناسى أن التوتر دبيممن الهنممد و دباثكسممتان هممو واحممد مممن أثكممبر العوامممل المممؤثرة فممى العقليممة‬ ‫الباثكستانية و حيث أن الجيش هو صاحب الكلمة العليا فى السياسة الباثكستانية فإن هذا يجعل مثل هذا التف اق مغريما إل ى أقص ى‬ ‫حدد للدولة الباثكستانة‪ .‬الجيش الباثكستانى ثكان يخسر حرب العصادبات ضد طالبان و مثل هممذا التفماق سمميعطيه الفرصممة للتقماط‬ ‫)‪(1‬‬ ‫أنفاسه و تورجيه قوته الضاردبة إلى ناحية غريمه التقليدى على حدوده الشرقية و هذه هى الجائزة الكبرى لهذا التفاق‪.‬‬ ‫لكن الكثير من المحللين يرون أن السماء ملبدة دبالغيوم‪ ,‬ففى هذا التفاق فاوضت الحكومة الباثكستانية من على أرض هشة دبسبب‬ ‫‪(1) “Pakistan signs peace deal with pro-Taliban militants” The Christian Science Monitor, sep., 6th 2006.‬‬ ‫نتائجها العسكرية الضعيفة على أرض الواقع‪ .‬و قد وصفه البعض دبأنه دبمثادبة اعتراف دبالمر الواقع دبعد عجز الحكومة عن فعممل‬ ‫أى شئ للسيطرة على هؤلء المتمردين‪ .‬هذا رجعل طالبان دباثكستان تملى شروطها فى حين أن الحكومة الباثكستانية لم تنل من هذا‬ ‫التفاق أى فائدة تررجى‪ ,‬فهذا التفاق ثكان يعطى طالبان الفرصة لتنظيم صفوفها أثكثر و إلى الستعداد لشن المزيممد مممن الهجمممات‬ ‫فيما دبعد على العاصمة نفسها التى ل تبعد أثكثر من ‪ 100‬ميل عن المناطق التى تسيطر عليها طالبان‪.‬‬ ‫إل أن طالبان قامت دبإلغاء وقف اطلق النمار فمي يوليمو ‪ 2007‬دبعممد اشمتباثكات دبيممن القمموات الحكوميممة وررجمال المدين‬ ‫السلمي الراديكالي والطلبة في المسجد الحمر في إسلم أدباد‪ .‬دبعد أعمال العنف الولية ‪ ،‬حاصر الجيش المسجد الذي ضم ممما‬ ‫يقرب من ‪ 2،000‬طالبا‪ .‬نجا عدد من الطلب أو تم تسليمهم للمسؤولين‪ .‬وقمد اعتقمل ثكمبير ررجمال المدين دبالمسمجد ‪ ،‬مولنما عبممد‬ ‫العزيز من قبل المسؤولين اثناء محاولته الهرب‪.‬دبعد أن فشلت المفاوضات دبين المسؤولين الحكوميين وزعماء المسممجد‪ .‬اقتحمممت‬ ‫القوات المجمع وقتل عبد الرشيد غازي ‪ ،‬الذي تولى منصب رئيس المسجد دبعد القبض علمى عبممدالعزيز وشمقيقه ‪ .‬ثكممما أن أثكمثر‬ ‫من ‪ 80‬شخصا لقوا حتفهم في أعمال العنف التى تكثفت في المناطق القبلية النائية دبعد الغارة‪.‬‬ ‫لقد ثكان لهذه لغارة على المسجد الحمر أثر ثكبير على دباثكستان حيث أدت إلى إظهار طالبان علممى أنهمما المممدافع عممن الممدين‬ ‫السلمى المحتمى دبالمسجد من دبطش الحكومة المرثكزيمة المدعوممةمن قبمل الغمرب‪ .‬لقمد أدى همذا إلمى أن انتشمرت مورجمة ممن‬ ‫التعاطف مع طالبان على الرغم من أن قادة المسجد ل ينتمون فعليا لطالبان‪ ,‬إل أنهم ثكانوا من المتعاطفين معهم ومن المتحممدثين‬ ‫دباسمهم‪ .‬المثير للستغراب فى هذا الحادث أن هممذا المسمجد ثكمان علممى دبعممد مئممات المتممار مممن القصمر الرئاسممى و مممن المرثكممز‬ ‫الرئيسى للمخادبرات الباثكستانية و مع اذلك فقد ثكان محصنا تحصينا شديدا و دبه من أنواع السحة الكثير و الكثير‪ .‬هذا إن دل على‬ ‫شئ فإنما يدل على ضعف الحكومة و سطوة طالبان‪ .‬دبعد هذا الحادث استعرت الحرب دبين طالبان و الحكومة المرثكزية و سممقط‬ ‫)‪(1‬‬ ‫الكثير و الكثير من القتلى على ثكل رجانب و أثكثر من المدنيين الذين علقوا فى القتال‪.‬‬ ‫في عام ‪ ، 2008‬دبعد أثكثر من خمس سنوات على تصدره للمشهد الفغانى ‪ ،‬ثكان الرئيس الفغمماني حامممد ثكممرزاي ل يممزال‬ ‫مهمشا على أرض الواقع وفاقممدا للسميطرة علمى مسماحات واسمعة فمي دبلده ‪ ،‬الممتي تشمتعل مممع أممراء الحمرب ‪ ،‬والمناضملين ‪،‬‬ ‫ومهردبي المخدرات‪.‬في فبراير ‪ ، 2008‬حذر وزير الخاررجية المريكى رودبرت غيتممس أعضمماء حلممف شمممال الطلسممي مممن أن‬ ‫تهديد تنظيم القاعدة الهجوم على ترادبه هو تهديد حقيقي وأنه يجب عليها أن تخصص مزيممدا مممن القمموات لتحقيممق السممتقرار فممي‬ ‫أفغانستان ‪ ،‬وموارجهة النفواذ المتنامي لكل من حرثكة طالبان وتنظيم القاعدة‪.‬‬ ‫إل أن التأثير الفعلي على حرثكة طالبان ثكان نادبعا من توقف دعم و اعتراف دباثكستان دبها‪ .‬حيث إنممه مممع دبدايممة هممذه الحممرب‬ ‫صار النظام الباثكستاني يطبق أرجندة أمريكية إلى ح دد ثكبير اذلك إلى رجانب محاولت التدخل فممي الشممأن الفغمماني مممن قبممل النظممام‬ ‫الباثكستانى والحصار الشديد الذي يفرضه الجيش الباثكستاني على الحدود الفغانية عند منطقة القبائل‪ ،‬والتي لم تتعود علممى مثممل‬ ‫هذه القيود ‪.‬‬ ‫لذلك قررت طالبان دباثكستان ‪ ،‬ودبالطبع تحت قيادة طالبان الفغانستان ‪ ،‬شن هجمة ضد النظام الباثكستاني مرادهمما السمميطرة‬ ‫على منطقة القبائل دبشكل عسكري رسمي ؛ وإن ثكانوا في حقيقة المر يسيطرون على منطقة القبائممل دبشممكل غيممر مباشممر‪ .‬حيممث‬

‫تنتشر في هذه القبائل المممدارس السملمية ‪ ،‬والمتي يختلممف مسممؤولوها ‪ ،‬مما دبيممن إخموان مسملمين ‪ ،‬وحرثكممات سملفية ‪ ،‬وحرثكممة‬ ‫طالبان‪,‬التي تعمل غالباا دبشكل غير مباشر ‪ ،‬تحت مسميات غير مباشرة دبالنسبة للنظام‪.‬‬ ‫لذا ورجهت طالبان‪ -‬دباثكستان ثكل رجهدها لمحاردبة الحكومة الباثكستانية لكنها لم تأخذ في اعتبارها أنه دبالرغم من أن لطالبان‬ ‫مؤيديها الكثر ‪ ،‬إل أنها لم تصل للمرحلة التي تساعدها على خوض معرثكتها هنماك ‪ ،‬فسميطرتها ليسمت ثكاملمة محكممة ‪ ،‬ثكمما أن‬ ‫القاعدة الشعبية هناك ثكانت تعيش تحت قيادة اذاتية ‪ ،‬وفكرة أن تكون تحت سيطرة أي قوى أخرى هي فكرة غير مرحب دبها إلممى‬ ‫حد ما ‪ ،‬وإن ثكانت طالبان قريبة من تحقيقها‪ .‬هذا إلى رجانب أن تضاريس السطح ليست دبالمعقدة ثكما هى عليه في أفغانستان ‪.‬‬ ‫‪(1) “The Red Mosque operation and its impact on the growth of the Pakistani Taliban”, Qandeel Siddique, Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI), Oct., 8th, 2008.‬‬ ‫ولذلك فإن العتماد على حرب العصادبات – والتي ثكانت تعتمد عليها طالبان دبشكل أساسممي – لممن يكممون اعتممماداا تاممما ا ‪ ،‬فأحيانمما ا‬ ‫ثكثيرة سيضطرون للموارجهة المباشرة ‪ ،‬ودبناء اا على مقدار السلحة ‪ ،‬فقد يؤدي اذلك إلى إصادبات في مقتل دبين المسلحين المنتمين‬ ‫لطالبان‪.‬‬ ‫في أغسطس ‪ ، 2008‬شن الجيش الباثكستانى عبر الحدود إلى داخل أفغانستان هجمموم رجمموي فممي منطقممة دبممارجور لثلثممة‬ ‫اسادبيع طويلة‬ ‫مما أسفر عن أثكثر من ‪ 400‬من القتلى في صفوف طالبان‪ .‬الغارات الجوية المستمرة أرجبرت العديمد ممن القموات التادبعمة لتنظيمم‬ ‫القاعدة وحرثكة طالبان على النسحاب من المدن التى ثكانت تحت سيطرتهم رسميا‪ .‬ومع اذلك ‪ ،‬أعلنت الحكومة الباثكستانية وقممف‬ ‫اطلق النار في منطقة دبارجور لشهر سبتمبر في مراعاة لشهر رمضان فى محاولة منها للعب على الوتر الحساس ألو هو التدين‬ ‫‪ ،‬و لكن هذا اثار مخاوف من أن طالبان سوف تستخدم هذه الفرصة لعادة تنظيم صفوفهم‪.‬‬ ‫في أغسطس ‪ 2009‬قتل دبيت ا محسود ‪ -‬زعيم حرثكة طالبان في دباثكستان ‪ -‬على يد وثكالة المخادبرات المرثكزية المريكيممة فممي‬ ‫رجنوب وزيرستان ‪ ،‬وهي منطقة نائية من البلد‪ .‬و قد ثكان ينحى عليه دباللئمة في اغتيال دبي نظيممر دبوتممو فممي الهجمموم الرهممادبى‬ ‫على فندق ماريوت في إسلم آدباد ‪ ،‬والعشرات من التفجيرات النتحارية الخرى‪ .‬على الرغم من وفاته ‪ ،‬واصلت حرثكة طالبان‬ ‫انبعاثها من رجديد في ثكل من أفغانستان ودباثكستان في عام ‪ .2009‬في الواقع ‪ ،‬ألقي اللوم على حرثكة طالبان لعمال العنممف الممتي‬ ‫سمبقت انتخادبمات أغسممطس الرئاسممية فمي أفغانسمتان ‪ ،‬فممي محاولمة واضمحة لعرقلممة النتخادبممات و إحمداث المزيمد ممن زعزعممة‬ ‫الستقرار في البلد‪.‬‬

‫‪:‬تأثير العلقات الهندية الباثكستانية‬ ‫منذ فجر نشأتها ثكدولة مستقلة ‪ , 1947‬دخلمت دباثكسممتان فممى صمراع أدبممدى مممع الهنممد لممم ينتممه إلممى يومنمما هممذا‪ .‬ل يورجممد‬ ‫دباثكستانى واحد يستطيع نسمميان الهزيمممة المذلممة فمى دبنغلديممش )دباثكسممتان الشممرقية سمادبقا( و استسمملم الجيممش الباثكسممتانى وأسممر‬ ‫‪ 90000‬من قواته على يد الهند‪ .‬من يومها عمدت دباثكستان إلى اتباع ثكل السبل و الطرق فى محاولتها لمعادلة الوضع مع الهنممد‬ ‫و التأثكد أن ما حدث فى دبنغلدش لن يتكرر فى ثكشمير‪ .‬واضعين فى الحسبان أن ثكلتيهما دولتممان نوويتممان‪ ,‬عمممل الطرفممان علممى‬ ‫تجنب الحرب الشاملة و هنا لجأت دباثكستان إلى خيار آخر أل و هو حرب الوثكالة‪ .‬عمدت دباثكستان إلى نشر التعليممم الممدينى لخلمق‬ ‫مجاهدين رجدد تقودهم الفكار الستشهادية لختراق الهند والقيام دبهجمات تقوض هيبة الهند و توقع الدمار ولكن فى نفس المموقت‬ ‫تستطيع دباثكستان نفى صلتها دبهم متى أرادت‪ .‬طالبان ثكانت إحدى هذه الجماعمات و إن اختلفمت عمن مثيلتهما دبمأنه خلقمت أساسما‬ ‫لحرب الهند فى أفغانستان ثم امتدت إلى دباثكستان عكس الجماعات الخرى مثل عسكر طيبة و الممتى ولممدت فممى دباثكسممتان و ثكممان‬ ‫مقرها الرئيسى هو مقر الجيش الباثكستانى فى ثكشمير طيلة ‪ 12‬عاما و من هناك شنت العديد من الهجمات ضد الهند حممتى وقممت‬ ‫قريب حين تخلى عنها الجيش الباثكستانى و قال أنها منظمة إرهادبية تحت ضغط أمريكى‪ .‬ثكما أن الهند قبمل هجموم أمريكما ثكمانت‬ ‫تقوم دبدعم المعارضين لطالبان عسكريا ا ولورجستيا ا وخصوصاا من البلد المجاورة حيث تملك تسهيلت عسكرية إل أن هذه البلد‬ ‫تخشي موارجهة مباشرة مع رجماعة متطرفة ثكطالبانكما أن تأثير الهند دبدا ينمو في أفغانستان دبسبب دبرنامج المساعدة الذي يتضمن‬ ‫من خللها أنشاء طريق استراتيجي سيؤدي لفتح أسواق مغلقة أمام البضائع والمنتجممات الهنديممة‪ .‬دباثكسممتان ترفممض السممماح لهممذه‬ ‫البضائع دبالعبور من خلل ميناء ثكراشاي حتى تجعل أفغانستان سوقا ثكام ا‬ ‫ل لها من خلل الطريق إلي أسيا الوسطي )‪.(1‬‬

‫تأثير طالبان ثكجماعة سنية علي نشاتها‬ ‫دبسب اتباع طالبان المذهب السني أدي هذا إلي حرمانها من دعم إيران مما تسبب في زيادة التمموتر دبيممن الطرفيممن حيممث دعمممت‬ ‫إيران القبائل التي تعارض افغانستان لرفضها أن تمثل طالبان حرثكة اسلمية و خاصة القبائل الفغانية فممي شمممال افغانسممتان‪ .‬و‬ ‫هنا التقطت دباثكستان طرف الخيط‪ ,‬حيث أن دباثكستان دولة سنية دبأغلبية ساحقة و لكن دبعد الثورة اليرانية عام ‪ 1979‬دبممدأ الشمميعة‬ ‫يطالبون دبالمزيد من الحقوق مثل مدارس خاصة دبهم و اعتبار أعيادهم إرجازات رسمية و أدى هذا لضطرادبات ثكثيرة و‬ ‫‪“India-Afghanistan relations” The Washington Post, oct., 23rd, 2008.‬‬ ‫)‪(1‬‬

‫مظاهرات)‪ . (1‬هنا قام السنة دبإنشاء رجماعات مسلحة للرد على الجماعلت الشيعية التى تممم إنشمماؤها و قممامت الحكومممة الباثكسممتانية‬ ‫دبدعمها لمعادلة الطرف الشيعى و أيض ا للمش ارثكة فمى الحمرب ضمد السموفييت فمى أفغانسمتان‪ .‬و ثكمان هنماك فمى البدايمة اتج اه‬ ‫لتحويلباثكستان إلى دولة مسلمة سنية و العمل على اعتبار الشيعة أقلية غيممر مسمملمة‪ .‬لكممن عقممال الجماعممات السممنية المسمملحة دبممدأ‬ ‫يخرج من يد الحكومة الباثكستانية و دبدأت هذه الجماعات تورجه أسلحتها تجاه الحكومة الباثكستانية نفسها مما أورجب على دباثكسممتان‬ ‫أن تغير موقفها‪ .‬فى عام ‪ 2002‬قام الرئيس دبرفيز مشرف دبحظر ‪ 4‬من هذه الجماعات ثم تل اذلك دبحظر اثنتين أخريين مممما أدى‬ ‫إلى استعار الحرب دبينهما‪ .‬معظم هذه الجماعات تتعاطف مع طالبان و تشترك معها فى رؤيتهمما لسمملوب حكممم الدولممة و طالبممان‬ ‫ثكثيرا ما ساعدت هذه الجماعات ثكما أنها ثكثيرا ما اعتمدت عليها‪.‬‬

‫‪:‬الترسانة النووية الباثكستانية‬ ‫دباثكستان لديها ترسانة نووية تتراوح ما دبين ‪ 30‬إلى ‪ 100‬رأس حردبى‪ ,‬ل أحد يعرف العممدد تحديممدا‪ .‬هممذه الترسممانة ورجممدت ثكممرد‬ ‫فعل للبرنامج النووى الهندى العدو الستراتيجى لباثكستان‪ .‬هذه الرؤوس الحردبية هى ممما يعطممى لباثكسممتان مصممدرا آخممر يجعلهمما‬ ‫تقلق من طالبان‪ .‬فطالبان تتقدم فى مواقعها التى تحتله من العاصمة الباثكستانية‪ ,‬و دبالتالى من هذه المواقمع‪ ,‬و إن وصمول أى ممن‬ ‫هذه الرؤوس النووية إلى طالبان هو الكارثة الكبرى فسيختفى هذا الرأس و ل أحد يعلم أيمن سميظهر ممرة أخمرى و الهمم ثكيمف‬ ‫يظهر‪ .‬القاعدة تسير فى محاولت دؤودبة للحصول على التكنولورجيا البيولورجية و النوودبة و هى سوف تشممتريها مممن أى مكممان و‬ ‫دبأى سعر و لن تتردد فى استخدامها)‪.(2‬‬ ‫االجيش الباثكستانى وضع ‪ 10000‬رجندى لحراسة المنشآت النووية الباثكستانية و ‪ 2000‬مهندس نووى يعملون دبها‪ ,‬و هو دائما ما‬ ‫يؤثكد سلمة هذه المنشآت و استحالة اختراقها‪ .‬أمريكا على الجانب الخر تبدى قلقا من هذا الوضممع المتممدهور حيممث ل تثممق فممى‬ ‫التطمينات الباثكستانية‪ .‬فمنذ هجمات سبتمبر ‪ 2001‬منحت أمريكا حمموالى ‪ 100‬مليممون دولر لباثكسممتان دبغممرض تممأمين منشممآتها‬ ‫النووية ثكما أنها تحضر الضباط و المهندسين الباثكستانيين اتدريبهم فى أمريكا على تمأمين همذه المنشمآت و ممع اذلمك فمالخوف ل‬ ‫يزال دباديا فى نبرة الحديث المريكية‪.‬‬

‫‪http://lrrp.wordpress.com/2004/11/10/shia-sunni-conflict-in-pakistan-by-amir-mir/‬‬ ‫‪“Does Pakistan's Taliban Surge Raise a Nuclear Threat?” Time, Apr., 24th 2009.‬‬

‫)‪(1‬‬ ‫)‪(2‬‬

‫الحلول المستقبلية للسيطرة على طالبان دباثكستان‬ ‫الكلمة التى يجب أن تحكم أى تعامل مع دباثكستان هى الهند‪ ,‬فمعظم ما تقوم دبه دباثكستان هو فعل مورجه للهند او أنممه رد فعممل لفعممل‬ ‫قامت دبه الهند‪ .‬طالبان فى رجزء ثكبير منها هى متشددين تقوم دباثكستان دبدعمهم تحيبا لليوم الذى تتفاقم فيه الممور ممع الهنمد فتلجمأ‬ ‫لهم دباثكستان للعمل دبأسلوب حرب العصادبات و التفجيرات النتحارية داخل الهنممد‪ .‬لممذا فالعلقممات الهنديممة الباثكسممتانية هممى نقطممة‬ ‫البداية‪ .‬يجب أن يعمل العالم على تهدئة مخاوف ثكل منهما تجاه الخر و دبذلك تعرف دباثكستان أن رجبهتها مع الهند مأمونة فتممورجه‬ ‫طاقتها إلى الجنب الخر أل و هو منطقة القبائل و منطقة وزيرسممتان‪ .‬فمى الشممهور القليلمة الماضممية قمامت الحكومممة الباثكسمتانية‬ ‫دبتورجيه طاقاتها إلى محاردبة طالبان و دبدأت تدخل معاقلها على الحدود مع أفغانستان‪ .‬أى تدهور فى العلقات الهنديممة الباثكسممتانية‬ ‫سيؤدى إلى أن يسعى الجيش‪ ,‬و هو الصوت القوى فى دباثكستان‪ ,‬إلى حل سريع مع طالبان لكى يتفرغ للعممدو اللممدود الهنممد‪ .‬هممذا‬ ‫الحل قد يكون التفاوض ووقف إطلق النار مما يعطى طالبان فرصة للتقاط النفاس و إعادة نظيم قواتها‪.‬‬ ‫يجب أن تعمل أميرثكا أيضا على دفع دباثكستان ناحية موارجهة طالبان غمض النظمر عممن علقتهمما ممع الهنممد‪ .‬موارجهممة طالبممان فمى‬ ‫دباثكستان عملية رجراحية مؤلمة‪ ,‬فطالبان متأصلة فممى الفكممر الباثكسممتان و خاصممة منمماطق القبائممل و خسممائر الجيممش و النظممام فممى‬ ‫دباثكستان قد تجعلهم فكرون مرتين قبل الستمرار فى حملتهم ضد طالبان‪ .‬ل ننسى أن طالبان تحظى دبتأييد شعى ثكبير حيث أنهممم‬ ‫صوروا أنفسهم على أنهم المدافعين عن الدين و التدين و هى لهجة لها دبريقها فى المجتمممع لباثكسممتانى‪ .‬المسمماعدات التصممادية و‬

‫العسكرية قد تجعل قادة دباثكستان يعرفون أن للموضوع مكاسب ثكممما أن لممه مخمماطر و دبعممد وزن الثنيممن سمموف يتخممذون القممرار‬ ‫الصحيح‪.‬‬ ‫المنشآت النووية الباثكستانية يجب أن تدخل فى معادلة العلقات المرثكية الباثكسممتانية‪ .‬تأمينهمما يجمب أن يكممون دائممما نصمب أعيممن‬ ‫القادة فى البنتارجون‪ .‬يجب أن يوضع فى الحسبان التفاقية النووية دبين الهنممد و أمريكمما و الممتى أثممارت اسممتياء دباثكسممتان و أخممذت‬ ‫تبحث هى الخرى عن شئ ما‪ .‬الصين دبدأت تطل دبرأسها فى دباثكستان‪ ,‬فالهند منافس على المدى الطويل للصين و دعم دباثكسممتان‬ ‫قد يكون احدى طرق الصين فى الضغط على الهند و هو ما سوف تقبله دباثكسمتان دبكممل ارتيماح‪ .‬ورجمود الصممين فمى قلمب البنامممج‬ ‫النووى الباثكستانى قد يعطيه حساسية ثكبيرة و يجعل من الصعب على أمريكا المساعدة تأمينه‪.‬‬ ‫يجب أيضا أن تضع أمريكا خططا لموارجهة ما إاذا فشلت دباثكستان فى السيطرة على ترسانتها النووية فهل تمموفر أمريكمما وحممدات‬ ‫أمريكية لحماية المنشآت النووية الباثكستانية‪ .‬و مااذا إاذا سقطت الدولة فى يد طالبمان حسمب دبعمض السميناريوهات‪ ,‬هممل يجمب أن‬ ‫تتدخل قوات أمريكية لتأمين أثكبر عدد ممكن من السلحة النووية الباثكستانية و مممتى يحممدث هممذا التممدخل؟ الكممثير مممن السممئلة و‬ ‫)‪(1‬‬ ‫القليل من الرجادبات‪.‬‬ ‫‪“Defending the Arsenal” The New Yorker, Seymour M. Hersh, Nov., 16th, 2009.‬‬

‫)‪(1‬‬

‫‪ ..‬نشأة تنظيم القاعدة ‪ ..‬فكرا و تنظيما‬ ‫‪ ....‬الجهاد في أفغانستان‬ ‫أصول المجموعة يمكن أن تعود إلى الحرب السوفيتية في أفغانستان‪ .‬حيث ثكانت الوليات المتحدة تنظر إلى الصراع المدائر فمي‬ ‫أفغانستان‪ ،‬مع المارثكسيين والفغان والمتحالفين مع القوات السوفيتية من رجهة والمواطنين الفغان المجاهدين من رجهمة أخمرى ‪،‬‬ ‫حيث ثكان الصراع يمثل حالة صارخة من التوسع والعدوان السوفييتي‪ .‬وورجهت الوليات المتحدة أموال عن طريممق المخممادبرات‬ ‫الباثكستانية إلممى المجاهممدين الفغممان الممذين يقمماتلون الحتلل السمموفيتي فممي دبرنامممج لوثكالممة المخمادبرات المرثكزيممة سممي دبعمليممة‬ ‫العصار‪(2)(1).‬مم في الوقت نفسه‪ ،‬انضم عددا متزايدا من الرجانب العرب المجاهدين )ويسمون أيضا الفغان العرب( إلممى الجهمماد‬ ‫ضد النظام المارثكسي الفغاني‪ ،‬دبمساعده المنظمات السلمية الدولية‪ ،‬وخاصة مكتب خممدمات المجاهممدين العممرب‪ ،‬الممذي مممدهم‬ ‫دبالموال دبما يقرب من ‪ 600‬مليون دولر في السنة تبرعت دبها حكومة المملكة العردبية السعودية والفراد المسلمين وخاصة من‬ ‫السعوديين الثرياء المقردبين من أسامة دبن لدن )‪.(3‬‬ ‫أنشأ مكتب الخدمات عبد ا عزام ودبن لدن في دبيشاور ‪ ،‬دباثكستان‪ ،‬في عام ‪ .1984‬ودبدأ من عام ‪ 1986‬إقامة شبكة مممن مكمماتب‬ ‫التوظيف في الوليات المتحدة ‪ ،‬الذي ثكان في مرثكز اللرجئين "ثكفاح" في مسجد الفاروق في شارع الطلنطممي دبممبروثكلين‪ .‬ومممن‬ ‫دبين أدبرز الشخصيات في مرثكز دبروثكلين "العميل المزدوج" علي محمد ‪) ،‬الذي أطلق عليه رجاك ثكلونان عميل مكتب التحقيقممات‬ ‫الفيدرالي اسم " المدرب الول لبن لدن"( )‪ ، (4‬و "الشيخ الضرير" عمر عبممد الرحمممن‪ ،‬رائممد تجنيممد للمجاهمدين فمي أفغانسممتان‪.‬‬ ‫ويعتقد أن المجاهدين الفغان في الثمانينات أنهم مصدر إلهام لجماعات إرهادبيممة فممي دول مثممل اندونيسمميا ‪ ،‬والفلممبين ‪ ،‬ومصممر ‪،‬‬ ‫والمملكة العردبية السعودية ‪ ،‬والجزائر ‪ ،‬والشيشان ‪ ،‬ويوغوسلفيا السادبقة )‪ .(5‬ووفقا للمصادر الروسممية ‪ ،‬فممان مرتكممبي التفجيممر‬ ‫الول لمرثكز التجارة العالمي عام ‪ ، 1993‬يعتقد أنهم استخدموا دليل ثكتبه وثكالة المخممادبرات المرثكزيممة المريكيممة للمقمماتلين فممي‬ ‫أفغانستان عن ثكيفية تصنيع المواد المتفجرة‪ [5] .‬فالقاعدة تطورت من )مكتب الخدمات(‪ ،‬وهي منظمة إسلمية تأسسممت فممي عممام‬ ‫‪ 1980‬لجمع وتورجيه الموال الرجنبية وتجنيد المجاهدين من ارجل الحرب ضد السوفييت في أفغانستان‪ .‬أسسممها عبممد امم يوسممف‬ ‫عزام ‪ ،‬وهو فلسطيني إسلمي وعضو في رجماعة الخوان المسلمين‪.‬‬ ‫وثكان مكتب الخدمات ينظم دبيوت آمنة في دبيشاور في دباثكستان قرب الحدود الفغانية ‪ ،‬ومعسممكرات شممبه عسممكرية للتممدريب فممي‬ ‫أفغانستان لعداد مجندين دوليين غير أفغان لجبهة الحرب الفغانيمة‪ ،‬وقممد أقنممع عمزام دبمن لدن دبانضمممام إلمى مكتمب الخمدمات‪،‬‬ ‫واستخدام ماله الخاص واستخدام علقاته مع "العائلة المالكة في السعودية وأصحاب المليارات النفطية في لخليممج" لبممذل المزيممد‬ ‫من الجهد لمساعدة المجاهدين )‪ . (6‬لم يكن الدور الذي يقمموم دبممه مكتممب الخممدمات والمتطمموعين المسمملمين الرجممانب ‪ ،‬أو "الفغممان‬ ‫العرب" في الحرب ثكبيرا‪ .‬فبينما ‪ 250،000‬المجاهدين الفغان قاتلوا السوفييت الشيوعي والحكومة الفغانية ‪ ،‬يقدر أنه لممم تكممن‬ ‫أثكثر من ‪ 2000‬أرجنبي المجاهدين في الميدان في وقت واحد )‪ .(7‬ومع اذلك ‪ ،‬فإن المجاهدين المتطمموعين الرجمانب مممن ثكمانوا مممن‬ ‫‪ 43‬دولة وعدد الذين شارثكوا في الحرثكة الفغانية في الفترة دبين عامي ‪ 1982‬و ‪ ، 1992‬ثكان ‪.35،000‬م )‪ (8‬وفي نهاية الحممرب‬ ‫انسحب التحاد السوفيتي من أفغانستان في عام ‪ .1989‬وظلت حكومة محمد نجيب ا الفغانية الشيوعية لمدة ثلث سنوات دبعد‬ ‫الحرب قبل أن تسقط على يد عناصر من المجاهدين‪ .‬وأعقب اذلك حالة ممن الفوض ى ممع المجاهمدين القمادة الغيمر قمادرين علمى‬ ‫التفاق على هيكل الحكم ‪ ،‬مع استمرار تنظيم التحالفات التي تقاتل من أرجل السمميطرة علمى الراضمي غيممر المحممددة ‪ ،‬ومغممادرة‬ ‫البلد المدمرة‪.‬‬

‫‪.‬محقق في ‪^ "HOW THE CIA CREATED OSAMA BIN LADEN"، GREEN LEFT WEEKLY، 2001-09-19. 09-01-2007‬‬

‫)‪(1‬‬

‫‪^ 1986-1992: CIA AND BRITISH RECRUIT AND TRAIN MILITANTS WORLDWIDE TO HELP FIGHT AFGHAN WAR. COOPERATIVE RESEARCH‬‬ ‫صل لهذا المسار في ‪HISTORY COMMONS. 09-01-2007‬‬ ‫‪.‬وو ص‬

‫)‪(2‬‬

‫‪^ WRIGHT 2006.‬‬

‫)‪(3‬‬

‫‪^ CLOONAN FRONTLINE INTERVIEW, PBS, JULY 13, 2005.‬‬

‫)‪(4‬‬

‫)‪ COOLEY، JOHN K. (SPRING 2003). UNHOLY WARS: AFGHANISTAN, AMERICA AND INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM . (REPRINT‬أ ب ^‬ ‫‪DEMOKRATIZATSIYA.‬‬

‫)‪(5‬‬

‫‪^ WRIGHT 2006, P. 103.‬‬

‫)‪(6‬‬

‫‪^ WRIGHT 2006, P. 137.‬‬

‫)‪(7‬‬

‫‪^ THE WAR ON TERROR AND THE POLITICS OF VIOLENCE IN PAKISTAN. THE JAMESTOWN FOUNDATION‬‬ ‫صل لهذا المسار في ‪(2004-07-02). 09-01-2007‬‬ ‫‪.‬وو ص‬

‫)‪(8‬‬

‫‪ ...‬توسع العمليات‬ ‫في نهاية المهمة العسكرية السوفيتية في أفغانستان‪ ،‬أراد دبعض المجاهدين توسيع نطاق عملياتهم لتشمل مد الجهاد السلمي فممي‬ ‫أرجزاء أخرى من العالم ‪ ،‬مثل إسرائيل وثكشمير‪ .‬ولتعزيز تلمك الطموحمات تشممكلت عمددا مممن المنظممات المتداخلمة والمتشمادبكة‪.‬‬ ‫وثكانت واحدة من هذه المنظمات منظمة التي ستكون دبعد اذلك تنظيم القاعدة‪ ،‬التي شكلها أسامة دبن لدن مع ارجتماع أولي عقد في‬ ‫‪ 11‬أغسطس ‪ . 1988‬تمنى دبن لدن إنشاء عمليات غير العسكرية في مناطق أخرى من العالم ؛ ولكن في المقادبل ثكان عزام يريد‬ ‫الستمرار في الترثكيز على الحملت العسكرية‪ .‬ودبعد اغتيال عزام في عام ‪ ، 1989‬انقسم مكتب الخممدمات ‪ ،‬وانضمم عممدد ثكممبير‬ ‫إلممى تنظيمم دبممن لدن‪ .‬فمي نوفمممبر ‪ ، 1989‬تمرثكمز علمي محمممد )وهمو رقيممب قموات خاصممة سمادبق( فممي فمورت دبممراغ‪ ،‬نممورث‬ ‫ثكارولينا ‪,‬وترك الخدمة العسكرية وانتقل إلى سانتا ثكلرا ‪ ،‬ثكاليفورنيا‪ .‬وسافر إلى أفغانسممتان ودباثكسممتان ‪ ،‬شممارك فممي خطممط دبممن‬ ‫لدن"‪ .‬ودبعد اذلك دبعام‪ ،‬في ‪ 8‬نوفمبر ‪ ،1990‬داهم الف دبي أي منزل السيد نصير شريك علي محمد في نيو رجيرس ي‪ ،‬واثكتشمف‬ ‫الكثير من الدلة على المخططات الرهادبية ‪ ،‬دبما في اذلك خطط لتفجير ناطحات سحاب في مدينة نيويورك‪ .‬وأدين السمميد نصممير‬ ‫في عام ‪ 1993‬دبتفجير مرثكز التجارة العالمي ‪ ،‬ودبقتل الحاخام مئير ثكاهانا في ‪ 5‬نوفمبر ‪ .1990‬ويقممال أن علممي محمممد فممي عممام‬ ‫‪ 1991‬ساعد في تنسيق نقل أسامة دبن لدن إلى السودان‪.‬‬

‫‪:‬حرب الخليج وبدء عداء الولايات المتحدة‬ ‫دبعد انسحاب التحاد السوفيتي من أفغانستان عاد أسامة دبن لدن إلى المملكة العردبية السعودية‪ .‬ووضممع الغممزو العراقممي الكممويت‬ ‫عام ‪ 1990‬المملكة العردبية السعودية وحكامها آل سعود في خطر ففي السعودية أهم حقول النفط ‪ ،‬وهي على مقردبة مممن القمموات‬ ‫العراقية في الكويت‪،‬ودعوة صدام حسين للتحاد العردبي السلمي يمكن أن تجمع المعارضة الداخلية‪.‬‬ ‫ثكانت القوات السعودية مسلحة ولكن قليلة‪ .‬فعرض دبن لدن خدمات مجاهديه على الملممك فهممد دبممن عبممد العزيممز لحمايممة المملكممة‬ ‫العردبية السعودية من الجيش العراقي‪ ،‬ولكن العاهل السعودي رفض عرض دبن لدن‪ ،‬واختار دبدل منممه سمممح للقموات المريكيممة‬ ‫والقوات الحليفة دبالنتشار على الراضي السعودية‪ .‬وأثار هذا الفعل غضب دبن لدن‪ ،‬لنه ثكان يؤمن أن ورجود القمموات الرجنبيممة‬ ‫في "أرض المسجدين" يعتبر انتهاك للراضي المقدسة‪ .‬ودبعد أن تحدث علنا ضد الحكومة السعودية ليوائها الجنود المريكيين‪،‬‬ ‫أرجبر على الهجرة إلى السودان‪ .‬وسحبت منه الجنسية السعودية الجنسية في يوم ‪ 9‬أدبريل ‪ .1994‬و تبرأت عائلته منه علنا‪ .‬ولكن‬ ‫هناك رجدال حول ما إاذا ثكان استمر في الحصول على دعم من أفراد أسرته أو الحكومة السعودية‪.‬‬

‫‪ :‬السودان‬ ‫من حوالي ‪ 1992‬إلى ‪ ،1996‬ثكان أسامة دبن لدن والقاعدة مورجودين في السودان‪ ،‬وقد أتوا دبناء على دعمموة مممن حسممن الممترادبي‬ ‫دبعد انقلب إسلمي ‪ ،‬ورحلوا دبعد طردهم من قبل الحكومة السممودانية‪.‬و خلل هممذا المموقت سمماعد دبممن لدن الحكومممة السممودانية‪،‬‬ ‫واشترى أو أنشأ عدة مؤسسات العمممال ‪ ،‬وأقممام معسممكرات لتممدريب المقمماتلين‪ .‬ولكممن فممي السممودان فقممد دبممن لدن رجممواز سممفره‬

‫للسعودية ومصدر دخله ردا على هجماته اللاذعة على العاهل السعودي‪ .‬نقطة التحول الرئيسية لسامة دبن لدن ثكممانت فممي عممام‬ ‫)‪(1‬‬ ‫‪ 1993‬عندما قدمت المملكة العردبية السعودية الدعم لتفاقات أوسلو التي وضعت طريق للسلم دبين إسرائيل و الفلسطينيين‪.‬‬ ‫ثكان الظواهري ورجماعة الجهاد السلمي المصري ‪ ،‬دبمثادبة نواة لتنظيم القاعدة ولكن أيضا اشترثكوا فممي عمليممات منفصمملة ضممد‬ ‫الحكومة المصرية‪ ،‬وثكانوا أسوأ حظا في السودان‪ .‬فممي عمام ‪ 1993‬قتلممت تلميممذة صممغيرة فممي محاولممة فاشمملة للجهمماد السمملمي‬ ‫)‬ ‫المصري لغتيال وزير الداخلية المصري حسن اللفممي ‪ .‬وتحمول المرأي العمام المصممري ضممد تفجيممرات الجماعمات السمملمية‬ ‫‪,(2‬وألقت الشرطة القبض على أثكثر من ‪ 280‬من أعضاء الجهاد وأعدم ستة‪ .‬وفممي عممام ‪ 1995‬ثكممانت المحاولممة الفاشمملة لغتيممال‬ ‫الرئيس المصري حسني مبارك التي أدت إلى طرد الحكومة السودانية لحرثكة الجهاد‪.‬‬ ‫‪^ REIDEL 2008, P. 52.‬‬

‫)‪(1‬‬

‫‪^ WRIGHT 2006, P. 186.‬‬

‫)‪(2‬‬

‫‪ :‬اللجوء إلى أفغانستان‬ ‫دبعد انسحاب السوفييت ‪ ،‬أصبحت أفغانستان غير خاضممعة لسمملطة لمممدة سممبع سممنوات وعممانت مممن القتممال المسممتمر دبيممن الحلفماء‬ ‫السادبقين ومجموعات مختلفة من المجاهدين‪ .‬وخلل التسعينات قوة رجديدة دبدأت تظهر‪ ,‬طالبان‪ .‬ووفقا لحمد راشممد ‪ ،‬خمسممة مممن‬ ‫قادة طالبان ثكانوا من خريجي مدرسة واحدة ‪ ،‬دار العلوم الحقانية )المعروفة أيضا دباسممم "رجامعممة الجهمماد" ‪ ،‬الممتي تقممع فممي دبلممدة‬ ‫صغيرة في أثكورا خاتاك قرب دبيشاور ‪ ،‬التي تقع في دباثكستان ولكن يحضرها الكثير من اللرجئين الفغان‪, .‬هذه المؤسسة تعكممس‬ ‫المعتقدات السلفية في تعليمها ‪ ،‬ويأتي الكثير من تمويلها من تبرعات خاصة مممن الثريمماء العممرب‪ ،‬الممذين يتصممل دبهممم دبممن لدن‪.‬‬ ‫وهناك أردبعة ممن القيمادات الب ارزة )دبمما فيهمم زعيمم طالبمان المل محمممد عممر مجاهمد( حض روا مدرسمة مش ادبهة ف ي قنمدهار‬ ‫دبأفغانستان‪, .‬ثكثير من المجاهدين انضموا في وقت لحق من إلى رجانب طالبان لقتال محمممد نممبي محمممدي رئيممس حممزب الحرثكممة‬ ‫النقلدبية أثناء من الغزو الروسي‪.‬‬ ‫أدى استمرار القتتال الداخلي دبين الفصائل المختلفة‪ ،‬والفوضى دبعد النسحاب السوفيتي‪ ،‬إلى نمو وتنظيم طالبان وتوسيع نطمماق‬ ‫سيطرتها على أرض أفغانستان‪ ،‬و إنشاء المقاطعة التي أطلق عليها إمارة أفغانستان السلمية‪ .‬وفي عممام ‪ 1994‬احتلممت طالبممان‬ ‫المرثكز القليمي لقندهار‪ ،‬ودبعد تحقيق مكاسب إقليمية سريعة‪ ،‬واحتلت العاصمة ثكادبول في سبتمبر ‪.1996‬‬ ‫دبعدما أعلنت السودان أن دبن لدن ورجماعته لم يعد مرحب دبهم في تلك السنة‪ ،‬وفرت طالبان التي تسمميطر علممى أفغانسممتان موقممع‬ ‫مثالي لتنظيم القاعدة لقامة مقرها—مع علقات سادبقة دبين الجماعات مماثلة النظرة على الشؤون العالمية وفي منأى عن النفممواذ‬ ‫السياسي والقوة العسكرية المريكية—وفرت موقع مثالي لتنظيم القاعدة لقامة مقرهمما‪ .‬تمتعممت القاعممدة دبحمايممة حرثكممة طالبممان‪،‬‬ ‫ودبقدر من الشرعية لنها ثكانت رجزء من وزارة دفاعها‪ ،‬على الرغمم ممن أن دباثكسمتان‪ ،‬والمملكمة العردبيمة السمعودية‪ ،‬والممارات‬ ‫العردبية هم فقط من اعترفوا دبحرثكة طالبان ثكحكومة شرعية في أفغانستان‪ .‬ودردبت القاعممدة متشممددين مسمملمين مممن رجميممع أنحمماء‬ ‫العالم في معسكرات تدريب في أفغانستان ومناطق الحدود الباثكسممتانية‪ .‬علممى الرغممم مممن تصممور البعممض‪ ،‬فممأن أعضمماء القاعممدة‬ ‫متنوعين العراق ولكن مرتبطين دبانتمائهم إلى التطرف في للسلم‪.‬‬ ‫أستمر توسع شبكة المؤيدين ودبالتالي تمتعت القاعدة دبملاذ آمن في أفغانستان التي تسيطر عليها طالبان حتى هزيمممة طالبممان مممن‬ ‫قبل مجموعة من القمموى المحليمة وشممعبة النشمطة الخاصمة شممبه العسممكرية دبوثكالمة المخمادبرات المرثكزيمة المريكيممة‪ ،‬والقمموات‬ ‫الخاصة دبالجيش المريكي والقوات الجوية في عام ‪ .2001‬ويعتقد أن أسامة دبمن لدن وغيمره ممن قمادة تنظيمم القاعمدة ل يزالموا‬ ‫هناك في المناطق التي تقع فيها السكان متعاطفة مع طالبان في أفغانستان أو في المناطق القبلية على الحدود الباثكستانية‪.‬‬

‫‪ :‬الفكر‬ ‫الحرثكة السلمية الصولية عموما والقاعدة خصوصا تطورت خلل الصحوة السلمية خلل العقود الثلثة الخيرة من القرن‬ ‫العشرين إلى رجانب حرثكات أقل تطرفا‪ .‬وقد اذهب البعض إلى أن دبدون ثكتادبات المفكر السمملمي سمميد قطممب فالقاعممدة لممن تكممون‬ ‫مورجودة‪ .‬فقطب قال أن دبسبب عدم تطبيق الشريعة في العالم السلمي فهو لم يعد إسلمي‪ ،‬وعاد إلى فممترة الجاهليممة‪ .‬ولسممتعادة‬ ‫السلم‪ ،‬فالمسلمون دبحارجة لقاممة "دولممة إسملمية حقيقيمة"‪ ،‬وتطمبيق الشمريعة السمملمية‪ ،‬وتخليممص العمالم السمملمي مممن أي‬ ‫تأثيرات لغير المسلمين‪ ،‬مثل مفاهيم مثل الشتراثكية أو القومية‪ .‬وأعداء السلم يتضممنوا "المستشمرقون الغمادرون" ‪ ،‬و "يهمود‬ ‫العالك" ‪ ،‬الذين يختطوا لمؤامرات ضد السلم‪ .‬وفي ثكلمات لمحمد رجمال خليفة‪ ،‬الصديق مقرب من أسامة دبممن لدن ‪" :‬السمملم‬ ‫يختلف عن أي دين آخر ‪ ،‬إنه أسلوب حياة‪ .‬ونحن ]وخليفة دبن لدن( نحاول فهم ما يقول السلم عن ثكيفية تناول الطعممام ‪ ،‬ومممن‬ ‫نتزوج‪ ،‬وثكيف نتحدث‪ .‬نقرأ لسيد قطب‪ .‬وهو الثكثر تأثيرا على رجيلنا "‬

‫وقطب ثكان له تأثير أثكبر على أسامة دبن لدن وعضو آخر دبارز في تنظيم القاعدة‪ ،‬أيمن الظواهري‪ ،‬ثكان خال أيمممن الظممواهري‬ ‫محفوظ عزام‪ ،‬من طلب قطب‪ ،‬ومحاميه و منفذ ترثكته ومن آخر من رأوا قطممب قبممل إعممدامه‪ .‬واسممتمع أيمممن الظممواهري وهممو‬ ‫شاب مرارا وتكرارا من عمه الحبيب محفوظ عن نقاء شخصية قطب والعذاب الذي قاسماه فممي السمجن"‪ .‬وقمد أعلمن الظمواهري‬ ‫عن تقديره لقطب في ثكتادبه فرسان تحت راية النبي‪ .‬ثكانت أحد أقوى تأثيرات قطب فكرة أن العديد من الممذين يقممال أنهممم مسمملمين‬ ‫غير مسلمين‪ ،‬أي أنهم المرتدين‪ ،‬المر الذي ل يعطي فقط للجهاديين "ثغرة شرعية حول حرمانية قتل مسلم آخر" ‪ ،‬لكنه رجعلهمما‬ ‫"‪ .‬وارجبه التنفيذ شرعا "‪ .‬وهؤلء المرتدين المزعومين يشملوا قادة الدول السمملمية لنهممم فشمملوا فممي تطممبيق الشممريعة‪ .‬أعلنممت‬ ‫تنظيم القاعدة في عام ‪ 1996‬الجهاد لطرد القوات والمصالح الرجنبية من الراضمي السملمية‪ .‬وأصممدر دبمن لدن فتموى ‪ ،‬المتي‬ ‫اعتبرت إعلن عام للحرب ضد الوليات المتحدة المريكية وحلفائها ‪ ،‬ودبدأ في ترثكيز موارد القاعدة لمهارجمة الوليات المتحممدة‬ ‫ومصالحها‪ .‬ففي ‪ 25‬يونيو ‪ 1996‬تم تفجير أدبراج الخبر‪ ،‬التي تقع في مدينة الخبر في المملكة العردبية السممعودية مممما أسممفر عممن‬ ‫مقتممل ‪ 19‬عسممكري أمريكممي ‪ .‬فممي ‪ 23‬فممبراير ‪ ،1998‬شممارك أسممامة دبممن لدن وأيمممن الظممواهري ‪ ،‬زعيممم الجهمماد السمملمي‬ ‫المصرية ‪ ،‬إلى رجانب ثلثة آخرين من الزعماء السلميين‪ ،‬في توقيع‪ ،‬وإصدار فتوى تحت اسم الجبهة السلمية العالمية لقتممال‬ ‫اليهود والصليبيين أعلنوا فيها ‪:‬‬ ‫إن حكم قتل المريكيين وحلفائهم مدنيين وعسكريين فرض عين على ثكل مسلم أمكنه اذلك في ثكممل دبلممد تيسممر فيممه‪ ،‬واذلممك حممتى«‬ ‫يتحرر المسجد القصى والمسجد الحرام من قبضتهم ‪ ،‬وحممتى تخممرج رجيوشممهم مممن ثكممل أرض السمملم ‪ ،‬مسمملولة الحممد ثكسمميرة‬ ‫الجناح‪ .‬عارجزة عن تهديد أي مسلم واذلك وفقا للقول ا تعالى ‪)) ،‬وقاتلوا المشرثكين ثكافة ثكما يقاتلونكم ثكافة((‪ ،‬وقمموله)) قمماتلوهم‬ ‫)‪(1‬‬ ‫حتى ل تكون فتنة ويكون الدين ل((‬

‫‪ :‬الهيكل التنظيمي‬ ‫على الرغم أن الهيكل الحالي لتنظيم القاعدة غير معممروف‪ ،‬تممم الحصممول علممى معلومممات معظمهمما مممن رجمممال فضممل الممذي قممدم‬ ‫للسلطات المريكية صورة تقريبية لكيفية تنظيم المجموعة‪ .‬وفي حين أن صممحة المعلومممات المقدمممة مممن الشمميخ فضممل والحممافز‬ ‫على تعاونه متنازع عليهم‪ ،‬دبنت السلطات المريكية الكثير من معرفتهم الحالية عن تنظيم القاعدة على أساس شهادته‪ (2) .‬أسممامة‬ ‫دبن لدن هو المير ورئيس هيئة عمليات القاعدة )على الرغم من هذا الدور فممي الصمل مممن الممكممن انممه شممغله أدبممو أيمموب عبممد‬ ‫الهادي العراقي(‪ ،‬ويعاونه مجلس الشورى‪ ،‬الذي يتألف من ثكبار أعضاء القاعدة ‪ ،‬قدره مسئولون غردبيون دبحوالي عشممرين إلممى‬ ‫ثلثين شخصا‪ .‬أيمن الظواهري نائب رئيس عمليات القاعدة وأدبو أيوب المصري همو ردبم ا زعيمم دبمارز فمي تنظيمم القاعمدة فمي‬ ‫العراق‪.‬‬

‫المنظمة و المفهوم‬ ‫ما هي القاعدة دبالضبط ‪ ،‬ل تزال محل خلف‪ .‬في فيلم دبي دبي سي الوثائقي قوة الكوادبيس ‪ ،‬يؤثكد الكاتب والصحفي آدم ثكممورتيس‬ ‫أن فكرة القاعدة دبوصفها منظمة رسمية هي اختراع أمريكي في المقام الول ‪ .‬يؤثكد ثكيرتس أن اسم "القاعدة" عرض لول مممرة‬ ‫على الجمهور عام ‪ 2001‬في محاثكمة أسامة دبن لدن والررجال الردبعة المتهمين في تفجير سممفارة الوليممات المتحممدة فممي شممرق‬ ‫أفريقيا عام ‪ . 1998‬اسم المنظمة وتفاصيل هيكلها قدمها رجمال فضل في شهادته‪ ،‬المذي زعمم أنمه عضممو مؤسمس فممي المنظمممة ‪،‬‬ ‫وموظمممممممممف سمممممممممادبق لسمممممممممامة دبمممممممممن لدن‪ (3) .‬فمممممممممي اقتبممممممممماس مباشمممممممممر ممممممممممن الفيلممممممممم الوثمممممممممائقي ‪:‬‬ ‫"الواقع هو أن دبن لدن وأيمن الظواهري أصبحوا محور لمجموعة مفككة من المتشددين السلميين الذين رجذدبتهم السممتراتيجية‬ ‫الجديدة‪ .‬ولكن لم يكن هناك منظمة‪ .‬ثكانوا فقط نشطاء إسلميين خططوا لعملياتهم ودبدا دبن لدن التمويل والمساعدة‪ .‬ولكنه لم يكن‬ ‫قائدهم‪ .‬ثكما ل يورجد دليل على أن دبن لدن استخدم مصطلح "القاعدة" للشارة إلى اسم المجموعة حتى دبعمد ‪ 11‬سمبتمبر‪ ،‬عنمدما‬ ‫)‪(4‬‬ ‫لحظ أن هذا المصطلح ثكان قد أعطى المريكيين‪.‬‬

‫هجمات ‪ 11‬سبتمبر‬ ‫تعتبر اعتداءات ‪ 11‬سبتمبر هي أثكثر للعمال الرهادبية تدميرا في أمريكا‪ ،‬وفي تاريخ العالم‪ ،‬أسفرت عن مصرع ما يقرب مممن‬ ‫‪ 3،000‬شخص‪ .‬حيث اصطدمت اثنان من الطائرات التجارية‪ ،‬دبأدبراج مرثكز التجارة العالمي‪ ،‬وطممائرة ثالثممة فممي وزارة الممدفاع‬ ‫المريكية‪ ،‬ورادبعة استهدفت في الصل ثكادبيتول الوليات المتحدة‪ ،‬ولكنها تحطمت في دبنسلفانيا‪ .‬هذه هجمات قامت دبهمما القاعممدة‪،‬‬ ‫عمل دبفتوى عام ‪ 1998‬الصادرة ضد الوليات المتحدة وحلفائها من رجانب القوات العسمكرية تح ت قيمادة دبمن لدن والظمواهري‬ ‫وغيرهم )‪ . (5‬وتشير الدلئل الكثيرة إلى أن الفرق النتحارية التى نفذت هذه الهجمات قادها القائد العسكري للقاعدة محمد عطا‪،‬‬ ‫صل لهذا المسار في ‪ 5‬يوليو ‪^ Text of Fatwah Urging Jihad Against Americans. (February 23, 1998. 2006‬‬ ‫‪.‬وو ص‬

‫)‪(1‬‬

‫^رجريدة القدس العردبي‬

‫)‪(2‬‬

‫‪^ A TRAITOR'S TALE, TIME, FEBRUARY 19, 2001‬‬

‫)‪(3‬‬

‫‪^ "WMD Terrorism and Usama bin Laden" by The Center for Nonproliferation Studies‬‬

‫)‪(4‬‬

‫‪^ Relevant excerpt from the series, The Power of Nightmares‬‬

‫)‪(5‬‬

‫دبالشممتراك مممع دبممن لدن‪ ،‬أيمممن الظممواهري‪ ،‬خالممد شمميخ محمممد ‪ ،‬والحنبلممي ثكمخططيممن رئيسمميين ورجممزء مممن القيممادة السياسممية‬ ‫والعسكرية‪ .‬أصدر دبن لدن رسائل دبعد ‪ 11‬سبتمبر ‪ 2001‬وأشاد دبالهجمات‪ ،‬وشرح دوافعها ونفمي أي تممورط دبهمما )‪ (1‬ودبممرر دبممن‬ ‫لدن الهجمات دبالمظالم التي يشعر دبها ثكل المسلمين‪ ،‬مثل التصور العام عن أن الوليمات المتحمدة تق وم قممع المسملمين‪ .‬أثكممد دبمن‬ ‫لدن أن أمريكا تذدبح المسمملمين فمي 'فلسمطين‪ ،‬الشيشمان‪ ،‬ثكشمممير والعممراق وانممه يتعيمن علمى المسمملمين الحتفماظ دبحممق الهجمموم‬ ‫النتقامي‪ .‬وأدعى أيضا أن هجمات ‪ 9 / 11‬لم تكن تستهدف النساء والطفال‪ ،‬ولكن تستهدف رموز القوة العسكرية والقتصادية‬ ‫المريكية )‪ . (2‬ظهرت أدلة أن الهداف الصلية لهذا الهجوم قد تكون محطممات للطاقممة النوويممة علممى السمماحل الشممرقي للوليممات‬ ‫المتحدة ولكن وقت لحق غيرت القاعدة الهداف‪ ،‬ثكما ثكان يخشى من أن مثل هذا الهجوم "قد يخرج عن نطاق السيطرة )‪"(4)(3‬‬

‫الحرب على الهرهاب‬ ‫في أعقاب هذه الهجمات ‪ ،‬قررت حكومة الوليات المتحدة الرد عسكريا‪ ،‬ودبدأت لعداد القوات المسلحة للطاحة دبنظممام طالبممان‬ ‫التي يعتقد أنها ثكانت تأوي تنظيم القاعدة‪ .‬وقبل هجومها عرضت على زعيم حرثكة طالبان المل محمممد عمممر فرصممة لتسممليم دبممن‬ ‫لدن وثكبار معمماونيه‪ .‬القمموات الولمى المتي دخلمت أفغانسمتان ثكمانت قمموات شممبه عسممكرية مممن شمعبة النشمطة الخاصممة دبوثكالمة‬ ‫الستخبارات المرثكزية‪ .‬عرضت طالبان تسليم دبن لدن إلى دبلد محايد للمحاثكمة إاذا قدمت الوليات المتحدة أدلة على تواطممؤ دبممن‬ ‫لدن في الهجمات‪ .‬و رد الرئيس المريكي رجورج ددبليو دبوش قائل ‪" :‬نحن نعلممم انممه مممذنب‪ .‬قوممموا دبتسممليمه )‪ "(5‬وحممذر رئيممس‬ ‫وزراء دبريطانيا توني دبلير نظام طالبان" تخلوا دبن لدن ‪ ،‬أو تخلوا السلطة )‪." (6‬‬ ‫دبعد اذلك دبوقت قصير قامت الوليات المتحدة وحلفائها دبغزو أفغانستان ‪ ،‬ودبالشتراك مع تحالف الشمال الفغمماني أزالمموا حكومممة‬ ‫طالبان في حرب أفغانستان ‪ .‬نتيجة لستخدام الوليات المتحدة لقواتها الخاصة وتمموفير الممدعم الجمموي لقمموات التحممالف الشمممالي‬ ‫للقوات البرية ‪ ،‬تم تدمير ثكل من معسكرات تدريب طالبان والقاعدة‪ ،‬ويعتقد أن ثكثير من هيكل عمل القاعدة تم تعطيلممه ‪ .‬وحمماول‬ ‫ثكثير من مقاتلي القاعدة دبعد فرارهم من مناصبهم الرئيسية فممي منطقممة تممورا دبممورا فممي أفغانسممتان‪ ،‬تجميممع صممفوفهم فممي منطقممة‬ ‫رجارديز الوعرة‪ .‬ومرة أخرى‪ ،‬هارجمت قوات المشاة المريكية والقوات الفغانية المحلية تحت غطاء مكثف من القصف الجمموي‬ ‫المريكي‪ ،‬ودمروا مواقع القاعدة وقتلوا أو أسروا العديد من المقاتلين‪ .‬وفمي أوائمل ع ام ‪ ،2002‬وارجهمت القاعمدة ضمردبة شمديدة‬ ‫لقدرتها التنفيذية‪ ،‬ودبدأ نجاح أولى لغزو أفغانستان‪ .‬وممع اذلمك ‪ ،‬عمدد ثكمبير ممع أعض اء حرثكمة طالبمان ل يمزال فمي أفغانسمتان‪،‬‬ ‫وهرب ثكبار قادة القاعدة دبن لدن والظواهري‬ ‫احتدم النقاش حول طبيعة دور القاعدة في ‪/ 11‬مم ‪ ، 9‬ودبعد دبدء الغزو الذي قادته الوليممات المتحممدة‪ ،‬أصممدرت وزارة الخاررجيممة‬ ‫المريكية شريط فيديو يظهر دبن لدن يتحدث مع مجموعة صغيرة من المقردبين في مكان ما في أفغانستان قبل وقت قصممير مممن‬ ‫سقوط حكومة طالبان )‪.(7‬‬ ‫ودبالرغم من تشكيك البعض في صحته‪ ،‬يظهر الشريط تورط دبن لدن والقاعدة في هجمات ‪ 11‬سبتمبر‪ ،‬دبث الشممريط فممي العديممد‬ ‫من القنوات التلفزيونية في رجميع أنحاء العالم ‪ ،‬ورافقمه التررجممة النجليزيمة المتي قمدمتها وزارة المدفاع المريكيمة‪ .‬فمي سمبتمبر‬ ‫‪ ، 2004‬خلصت رسميا لجنة تحقيق الحكومة المريكية في اعتداءات ‪ 11‬سبتمبر رسميا إلى أن الهجمممات وضممعت ونفممذت مممن‬ ‫قبل عناصر القاعدة )‪ .(8‬وفي أثكتودبر ‪ ، 2004‬أعلن دبن لدن مسؤوليته عن الهجمات في شريط فيديو دبثته قناة الجزيرة ‪ ،‬قائل أنه‬ ‫استوحاه من الهجمات السرائيلية على أدبراج عام ‪ 1982‬في حرب لبنان ‪" :‬دبينما أنا أنظر إلى تلك الدبراج المدمرة في لبنان آتى‬ ‫في اذهني أن نعاقب الظالم دبالمثل وأن ندمر أدبرارجا في أميرثكا لتذوق دبعض ما اذقنا ولترتدع عن قتل أطفالنا ونسائنا )‪."(9‬‬ ‫صل لهذا المسار في ‪^ Bin Laden says he wasn't behind attacks. CNN September 17, 2001. 06-07-2006‬‬ ‫‪.‬وو ص‬

‫)‪(1‬‬

‫‪^ Hamid Miir 'Osama claims he has nukes: If U.S. uses N-arms it will get the same response' "Dawn: the Internet Edition" November 10,‬‬ ‫‪2001‬‬

‫)‪(2‬‬

‫‪.‬محقق في ‪^ "Al-Qaida leaders say nuclear power stations were original targets"، The Guardian، 2002-09-09. 11-01-2007‬‬

‫)‪(3‬‬

‫‪.‬محقق في ‪^ "Al Qaeda Scaled Back 10-Plane Plot"، Washington Post، 2004-06-17. 11-01-2007‬‬

‫)‪(4‬‬

‫صل لهذا المسار في ‪^ U.S. Jets Pound Targets Around Kabul. The Portsmouth Herald. (October 15, 2001. 06-07-2006‬‬ ‫‪.‬وو ص‬

‫)‪(5‬‬

‫‪^ Blair to Taliban: Surrender bin Laden or surrender power‬‬

‫)‪(6‬‬

‫صل لهذا المسار في ‪^ U.S. RELEASES VIDEOTAPE OF OSAMA BIN LADEN. (December 13, 2001). 04-07-2006‬‬ ‫‪.‬وو ص‬

‫)‪(7‬‬

‫صل لهذا المسار في ‪^ National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States. (September 20, 2004. 27-04-2006‬‬ ‫‪.‬وو ص‬

‫)‪(8‬‬

‫صل لهذا المسار في ‪November 1, 2004. 12-07-2006‬و ‪^ Full transcript of bin Ladin's speech. Al Jazeera‬‬ ‫‪.‬وو ص‬

‫)‪(9‬‬

‫دبحلول نهاية عام ‪ ، 2004‬أعلنت حكومة الوليات المتحدة أن ثلثي قادة تنظيم القاعدة في الفترة من عام ‪ 2001‬تم القبممض عليهمم‬ ‫من قبل القوات شبه العسكرية دبوثكالة المخادبرات المرثكزية المريكية‪ .‬ومنهم رمزي دبن الشيبة وخالممد شمميخ محمممد‪ ،‬وأدبممو زدبيممدة‪،‬‬ ‫سيف السلم المصري ‪ ،‬وعبد الرحيم النشيري أو ميتا )محمد عاطف( )‪ .(3) (2)(1‬على الرغم من اعتقال أو قتل العديد مممن ثكبممار‬ ‫عناصر القاعدة‪ ،‬فإن الحكومة المريكية مما زال ت تحمذر ممن أن همذه المنظممة لمم تهمزم دبعممد‪ ،‬والمعمارك مسمتمرة دبيمن القموات‬ ‫المريكية والمجموعات المتصلة دبالقاعدة‪.‬‬

‫الفصل دبين القاعدة و طالبان‬

‫ثمة وقائع ميدانية وتعزز العتقاد دبإمكان فصل دبين »طالبان« و»القاعدة« فممي أفغانسممتان‪ ،‬فيبممدو واضممحا ا مثلا ضممعف المسمماهمة‬ ‫العردبية في »الجهاد الجديد« في افغانستان‪ ،‬في حين تظهر هذه المسماهمة أثكممبر فمي اقليممم الحممدود الباثكسممتاني‪ ،‬وصممار مممن شممبه‬ ‫المحسوم ان قيادة »القاعدة« تقيم خارج الراضي الفغانية‪ ،‬ااذ ان التقارير الستخبارية الخيرة أشارت الى ورجودهمما فممي مدينممة‬ ‫ثكويتا الباثكسممتانية‪ ،‬وثكممثيراا مممن التقممارير الصمحافية رصممدت مممؤخراا تممذمراا فممي أوسمماط »الجهمماد الفغمماني الجديممد« مممن رغبممة‬ ‫»المجاهدين العرب لجرنا الى موارجهات خارج الحدود«‪.‬‬ ‫يجب ان يتذثكر الجميع أن طالبان لها أرجندة أفغانية أى أنها تريد أفغانستان للفغان‪ ,‬فقط دبل زيادات‪ .‬القاعدة هى التى تريد أهممدافا‬ ‫عالمية و تريد العالم‪ ,‬دبما فيه أمريكا‪ ,‬لنفسها‪ .‬فى البداة عندما وصل دبن لدن إلى أفغانستان حممدثت اضممطرادبات دبينممه و دبيممن المل‬ ‫عمر زعيم حرثكة طالبان‪ ,‬حيث ثكان المل يضيق صدرا دبفتاوى دبن لدن التى تؤلب عليه حلفاؤه السعوديين و حتى دباثكستان‪ .‬لكن‬ ‫سرعان ما دبدأ دبريق اذهب دبن لدن يسطع فى السماء الفغانية و قد ثكان قادة طالبان يأملون أن يقوم دبن لدن دبمساعدتهم فى دبنمماء‬ ‫الدولة دبعد أن عصفت دبها رياح الحرب الهلية و قد ثكان ما فعله دبن لدن فى السودان من دبناء للطممرق و البنيممة التحتيممة‪ .‬و علممى‬ ‫الرغمممم ممممن تواضمممع ثمممروة دبمممن لدن فمممإنه ثكمممان يمثمممل اقتصمممادا موازيممما فمممى دبلمممد مثمممل أفغانسمممتان المدقعمممة الفقمممر‪.‬‬ ‫ل يعني هذا الكلم توقع اا لحرب وشيكة دبيممن »القاعممدة« وطالبممان«‪ ،‬لكنممه يمكممن ان يؤسممس فمي حممال التقطممه القمادة الميرثكيممون‬ ‫الميدانيون لم »طالبان أفغانية« يمكن ان يتأسس معها تفاهم ما وشراثكة ما فمي حمال وورجممدت رغبممة وإرادة فمي نجماح »المهمممة«‪.‬‬ ‫)‪(4‬‬ ‫فالشرعية العررجاء لكارزاي لم تعد تكفي لستئناف مسيرة دبناء أفغانستان‪.‬‬

‫‪^ http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/22/washington/22ksm.html?pagewanted=3‬‬

‫)‪(1‬‬

‫‪^ http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/17/AR2007121702151.html‬‬

‫)‪(2‬‬

‫‪^ http://edition.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/asiapcf/south/09/16/alqaeda.pakistan‬‬ ‫‪“T h e War A gai ns t th e Ta lib an and th e Wa r A ga i ns t A l Q a ed a” George Friedman, Jan., 27th, 2009.‬‬

‫)‪(3‬‬ ‫)‪(4‬‬

‫‪http://www.rightsidenews.com/200901273470/global-terrorism/the-war-against-the-taliban-and-the-war-against-al-qaeda.html‬‬

‫العلقات العردبية المريكية‪......‬الصدام أم الوئام؟‬ ‫العالم العردبي يشير الى البلدان الناطقة دباللغة العردبية والتي تمتد من المحيممط الطلسممي غردبمما إلممى دبحممر العممرب شممرقا ‪ ،‬ومممن البحممر الدبيممض‬ ‫المتوسط في الشمال وحتى منطقة القرن الفريقي والمحيط الهندي في رجنوب شرق البلد‪ .‬وهو يتألف من منطقة يبلممغ عممدد سممكانها مجتمعممة ‪ 325‬مليممون‬ ‫نسممممممممممممممممممممة تمتمممممممممممممممممممد فمممممممممممممممممممى منممممممممممممممممممماطق شممممممممممممممممممممال افريقيممممممممممممممممممما وغمممممممممممممممممممرب آسممممممممممممممممممميا‪.‬‬ ‫اللغة العردبية تشكل ميزة توحيد العالم العردبي‪ .‬على الرغم من أن هناك مناطق مختلفة تستخدام لهجات محلية للعردبية ‪ ،‬فإنهمما تشممترك رجميعمما فمي اسممتخدام‬ ‫اللغة دبنفس الشكل و الحروف‪ .‬هذا يتناقض مع الوضع على نطاق أوسع في العالم السلمي ‪ ،‬حيث في دول أخرى مسلمة متجاورة من غير العرب ايران‬ ‫ودباثكستان وأفغانستان ‪ ،‬حيث تحافظ على استخدام اللغة العردبية في أدبجدية مماثلمة ولكنهما تحتفمظ دبمكانتهما الثقافيمة فمي المقمام الول دباعتبارهما لغمة المدين‬ ‫والمنح الدراسية الدينية ‪ ،‬ولكن فيها الجماهير عموما ل يتكلم اللغة العردبية دبل تتكلم لغات لخرى‪.‬‬ ‫رجامعممممة الممممدول العردبيممممة ‪ ،‬وهممممي منظمممممة سياسممممية تهممممدف لتوحيممممد العممممالم العردبممممي ‪ ،‬وضممممعت تعريفمممما للشممممخص العردبممممى ‪،‬‬ ‫"أي شخص تكون لغته هي اللغة العردبية ‪ ،‬أو الذي يعيش في دولة ناطقة دباللغة العردبية ‪ ،‬وهو مواطن من دبلد عردبي ‪ ،‬أو الذي ثكان والممده عردبممي ‪ ،‬والممذي‬ ‫هو في يتعاطف مع تطلعات الشعوب الناطقة دبالعردبية‪ " .‬ترى رجامعة المدول العردبيمة ان الهمدف الرئيسمي لهما مممن الناحيممة السياسممية همو توحيممد الشممعوب‬ ‫العردبية‪ .‬مقرها الدائم يقع في القاهرة‪ .‬ومع اذلك ‪ ،‬فقد انتقلت مؤقتا لتونس خلل ثمانينيات القرن الماضى ‪ ،‬دبعد طرد مصر من رجامعة الدول العردبية دبسبب‬ ‫توقيعهممممممممممممممممممما عمممممممممممممممممممل اتفاقيمممممممممممممممممممة ثكمممممممممممممممممممامب ديفيمممممممممممممممممممد ممممممممممممممممممممع إسمممممممممممممممممممرائيل ) ‪.(1978‬ممممممممممممممممممم‬ ‫العالم العردبي يمتد عبر أثكثر من ‪ 14‬مليون ثكيلومتر مردبع )‪ 8.6‬مليون ميل مردبع( من شمال افريقيا ورجزء آخر ممن شمممال شمرق أفريقيمما ورجنمموب غمرب‬ ‫آسيا يسمى الشرق الوسط‪ .‬الجزء السيوي من العالم العردبي يسمى المشرق‪ .‬ورجزء من شمال افريقيا في العالم العردبي إلى الغرب مممن مصممر والسممودان‬ ‫معممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممروف دبممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممالمغرب العردبممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممي‪.‬‬ ‫غالبية الناس في العالم العردبي تتمسك دبالسلم و الذى هو الدين الرسمى في معظم البلدان‪ .‬أحكام الشريعة مورجودة رجزئيا فمي النظممام القممانوني فممي دبعممض‬ ‫البلدان ‪ ،‬وخصوصا في شبه الجزيرة العردبية ‪ ،‬والبعض الخر علماني‪ .‬الغالبية العظمى من الدول العردبية تخضع للسلم السممني‪ .‬إل أن العممراق هممو دبلممد‬ ‫غالبية سكانه من الشيعة )‪ ، (٪ 65‬في حين أن لبنان ‪ ،‬اليمن ‪ ،‬الكويت ‪ ،‬والبحرين دبهم أقليات شيعية ثكبيرة‪.‬‬ ‫هناك أعداد ثكبيرة من المسيحيين ‪ ،‬الذين يعيشون في المقام الول في مصر وسمموريا ولبنممان والعممراق والردن وفلسممطين والسممودان‪ .‬سممادبقا ‪،‬‬ ‫ثكانت هناك أقليات ثكبيرة من اليهود العرب في رجميع أنحاء العالم العردبي‪ .‬لكن ‪ ،‬وثكما ورد في وعد دبلفور ‪،‬فإن إنشاء إسرائيل الدولة اللحقة دفع دبهممم إلممى‬ ‫الهجرة الجماعية والطرد في غضون دبضعة عقود‪ .‬اليوم ل تزال الجاليات اليهودية الصغيرة ‪ ،‬دبحيممث تممتراوح مممن عشممرة فممي البحريممن إلممى ‪ 7،000‬فممي‬ ‫المغرب ‪ ،‬وأثكثر من ‪ 1،000‬في تونس‪ .‬عموما ‪ ،‬فإن العرب يشكلون أقل من ردبع سكان العالم البالغ عددهم ‪ 1.4‬مليار نسمة من المسلمين ‪ ،‬وهي رجماعممة‬

‫يشممممممممممممممممممممممممممممار إليممممممممممممممممممممممممممممه أحيانمممممممممممممممممممممممممممما دباسممممممممممممممممممممممممممممم العممممممممممممممممممممممممممممالم السمممممممممممممممممممممممممممملمي‪.‬‬ ‫دبعض الدول العردبية تمتلك احتياطيات ثكبيرة من النفط‪ .‬الخليج العردبى دبشكل خاص ثكان له حظا ثكبيرا من هذه المواد الخام السممتراتيجية ‪ :‬أردبممع دول فممى‬ ‫الخليج العردبى ‪ ،‬المملكة العردبية السعودية والمارات والكويت ‪ ،‬وقطمر ‪ ،‬همي مممن دبيممن أثكمبر عشممرة مصمدرين للنفمط أو الغمماز فمي رجميممع أنحمماء العمالم‪.‬‬ ‫دبالضافة إلى اذلك ‪ ،‬الجزائر ‪ ،‬ليبيا ‪ ،‬العراق ‪ ،‬البحرين ‪ ،‬مصر ‪ ،‬تونس ‪ ،‬والسودان رجميعا لديها احتياطيات أصغر ولكن ثكبيرة‪ .‬هذا ثكان له أثر ثكبير على‬ ‫السياسة فى العالم العردبى‪ ،‬دبسبب ما يؤدي إليه التفاوت القتصادي دبين المناطق الغنية دبالنفط والبترول ‪ ،‬والدول الفقيرة ‪ ،‬وخاصة في الدول الثكممثر ثكثافممة‬ ‫سكانية في الخليج العردبى وليبيا ‪ ،‬مما اثار الهجرة العمالية واسعة النطاق‪.‬‬ ‫ثكثير من الحدود الحديثة في العالم العردبي وضعت من قبل القوى الستعمارية الورودبية خلل نهايات القرن التاسع عشر وأوائل القرن القممرن‬ ‫العشرين‪ .‬ومع اذلك ‪ ،‬فإن دبعض الدول الكبرى )خصوصا مصر وسوريا( قد حافظت تاريخيا و رجغرافيا على حدودها ‪ ،‬و التى هى الساس الذى وضممعت‬ ‫عليه حدودها حتى يومنا هذا‪.‬‬ ‫اعتبارا من عام ‪ ، 2006‬فإن العالم العردبي مصدر لخمسي الناتج المحلي الرجمالي من العالم السلمي ‪ ،‬وثلثممة أخممماس التجممارة علممى نطمماق أوسممع مممن‬ ‫العالم السلمي‪ .‬الدول العردبية هي في معظمها ‪ ،‬وإن لم يكن حصرا ‪ ،‬اقتصادات نامية وتجني عائدات صادراتها من النفط والغاز ‪ ،‬أو دبيممع المممواد الخممام‬ ‫الخرى‪ .‬وقد شهدت السنوات الخيرة نموا اقتصاديا ثكبيرا في العالم العردبي ‪ ،‬ويررجع أساسا إلى الزيادة في أسعار النفط والغمماز ‪ ،‬والممتي تضمماعفت ثلث‬ ‫مرات دبين عامي ‪ 2001‬و ‪ ، 2006‬ولكنه يررجع أيضا إلى الجهود التي تبذلها دبعض الدول لتنويع قاعمدتها القتصمادية‪ .‬والمنظمممات القتصمادية الرئيسممية‬ ‫في العالم العردبي تشمل منظمة مجلس التعاون الخليجي ‪ ،‬التي تتألف من الدول في الخليج العردبى ‪ ،‬واتحاد المغرب العردبي ‪ ،‬التي تتألف مممن دول شمممال‬ ‫أفريقيا‪ .‬دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي قد حققت دبعض النجاح من الناحية المالية والنقدية ‪ ،‬دبما فمي اذلممك خطممط لنشمماء العملمة الموحممدة فممي منطقممة الخليممج‬ ‫العردبى‪ .‬منذ تأسيسه في عام ‪ ، 1989‬فإن اتحاد المغرب العردبي أهم إنجاز له أن تم إنشاء طريق دبطول ‪ 7000‬ثكم عبر شمال افريقيمما مممن موريتانيمما الممى‬ ‫ليبيا على الحدود مع مصر ‪ ،‬ويتوقع أن يكتمل في عام ‪ ، 2010‬عبر المغرب والجزائر وتونس‪.‬‬ ‫اعتبارا من شهر أغسطس عام ‪ 2009‬اذثكر أن المملكة العردبية السعودية هى أقوى القتصادات العردبيممة وفقمما للبنممك الممدولي‪ .‬المملكممة العردبيممة‬ ‫السعودية ل يزال اقتصادها أقوى اقتصاد عردبي من حيث مجموع الناتج المحلي الرجمالي‪ .‬وفى آسيا فإنها تحتل المرتبة الحادية عشرة‪ .‬يليها عردبيا مصممر‬ ‫والجزائر ‪ ،‬والتان ثكانتا أيضا في ثاني وثالث أثكبر القتصادات في افريقيا )دبعد رجنوب أفريقيا( ‪ ،‬في عام ‪ .2006‬وقطر هي أغنى دولة نامية فى العالم من‬ ‫حيث نصيب الفرد من الناتج المحلي الرجمالي‪.‬‬ ‫في العالم العردبي ‪ ،‬هناك دائما دبعض اللعبين الساسيين الذين يسيطرون على السياسة العردبية‪ .‬طوال التاريخ الحديث لهذه المنطقة ‪ ،‬لقد ثكان هنمماك دائممما‬ ‫مثلث القاهرة والرياض ودمشق‪ .‬مصر ‪ ،‬على الرغم من أنها ليسمت المكمان المذي دبمدأ فيمه العمرب أو السملم ‪ ،‬فقمد نممت لتصمبح أهمم المدول السملمية‬ ‫العردبية ‪ ،‬ول تزال تهيمن على العديد من رجوانب القطاعات الثقافية و الفكرية في العالم العردبي‪ .‬هذا أعطى مصر القدرة على تورجيه السياسة العردبيممة إلممى‬ ‫أى اتجاه أيا ثكان التجاه الذي اختارته‪ .‬المملكة السعودية دبلد مترامي الطراف اذات موارد هائلة واقتصاد قوي يعتمد على الصادرات النفطيممة‪ .‬هممذا عممزز‬ ‫دور السعودية في العالم العردبي دبعد أن أصبحت واحدا من أدبرز اللعبين الرئيسيين في المنطقة ممع العديممد ممن الدوات لسممتخدامها‪ .‬ثكممما أن سموريا دبلمد‬ ‫ثكبير له تاريخ عظيم و هى من خلل العديد من الطرق أصبحت واحدة من أهم العوامل في المعادلة العردبية‪ .‬في المموقت الحاضممر ‪ ،‬فممإن قواعممد اللعبممة قممد‬ ‫تغيرت في المنطقة العردبية ‪ ،‬ودبعض اللعبين الخرين يسعون لدور أثكبر ‪ ،‬فقطر تستخدام عائدات النفط لتحظى دبدور أثكبر فى السياسة ‪ ،‬والمارات هممي‬ ‫لعب مهم قادم دبوصفها واحدا من أثكثر القتصادات الواعدة وايران تحاول القفز على الخليج العردبي لتهبط فى العممالم العردبممي‪ .‬هممذا ل يعنممي ان اللعممبين‬ ‫الرئيسيين التقليديين فقدوا دورهم ‪ ،‬فهم ل يزالون يمارسون اللعب دبشراسة ‪ ،‬و لكن أصبع الن لديهم المزيد من القضايا ليقلقوا دبشأنها ‪.‬‬

‫العلقات المصرية المريكية‬ ‫علقة مصر مع الغرب تطورت عبر تاريح طويل من التعاملت التى شادبها التدخل الخاررجى فى صنع السياسممات المصممرية‪ ,‬و‬ ‫قد ثكان لهذا تأثيره على العقلية المصرية التى دائمل مل تنظر دبعين من الريبة إلى أى شئ يممأتى مممن خممارج حممدودها‪ .‬لقممد ثكممانت‬ ‫مصر دائما نقطة فى صراع المبراطوريات العالمية‪ ,‬فحتى وقت قريب ثكانت مصر مسرحا للصراع البريطممانى الفرنسممى‪ ,‬فقممد‬ ‫غزاها نادبليون من قبل ثم رجثم عليها الحتلل النجليزى لعشرات من السنين‪.‬‬

‫الملكية الدستورية و دور النجليز‪:‬‬ ‫فى عشرينات القرن الماضى أعلنت دبريطانيا استقلل مصر و قد هممذا إلممى أن تمموزعت السمملطة فممى مصممر دبيممن ثللممث لعممبين‬ ‫أساسيين‪ :‬النجليز و القصر الملكي الضعيف و حزب الوفد اذو النزعة الوطنية و الذى ثكان الدافع الساسى لستقلل مصممر فممى‬ ‫أعقاب الحرب العالمية الولى‪ .‬على الرغم من الستقلل فقد لدبقت دبريطانيا على قوات ثكثيرة فى مصر و خاصةفى منطقة قنمماة‬ ‫السويس اذات الهميى الستراتيجية ثكمل أن الملك ثكثيرا ما اعتمد عليهممم فممى تعممامله مممع حممزب الوفممد اذي الشممعبية فممى الشممارع‬ ‫المصرى‪ .‬و قد ثكان الوفد مسيطرا على البرلمان المصرى حتى قيام الثورة ‪ 1952‬على الرغم من أنه ثكممان قممد دبممدأ يفقممد شممعبيته‬ ‫لصالح رجماعات أخرى ناشئة مثل الخوان المسلمين‪.‬‬

‫تحت حكم ناصر‪:‬‬ ‫فى دبدايى الخمسينات أدى الشعور العام دبالضيق من الورجود البريطانى إلى رجانب التململ الرجتماعى إلى قيام مجموعة من ظباط‬ ‫الجيش "الضباط الحرار" دبثورة للنقلب على النظام الملكى سميت دبقورة يوليو‪ .‬و قد أشرت هذه الثورة لبدايممة فممترةمن تممدخل‬ ‫المؤسسة العسكرية فى الحكمحيث أن رجميع الرؤساء المصريين منذ قيام الثورة و حتى يومنا هذا ررجال عسممكريون‪ .‬دبعممد الثممورة‬ ‫تسلم رجمال عبدالناصر مقاليد الحكم و قد قد تمكن من السيطرة على السياسة المصرية و حكم مصر حتى وفاته‪.‬‬ ‫خلل فترة حكم نصر ورجدت مصر نفسها فى وسط صراع للسيطرة على الشمرق الوسمط ممن رجمانب الق وى العظممى ف ى اذلمك‬ ‫الوقت الوليات المتحدة المريكية و التحاد السوفييتى‪.‬لفترة فى دبداية حكمه نجح ناصر فى اتباع سياسة ل تجعله حليفا لى مممن‬ ‫المعسكرين و قد له دور دبارز فى انشاء منظمة عدم النحياز‪ .‬لكن هممذا الوضممع لممم يممدم طممويل حيممث تحممول ناصممر إلممى التحمماد‬ ‫السوفييتى للحصول على السلح دبعد أن رفض الغرب إعطائه هذا السلح نتيجة لدعمه للثورة الجزائريةمما أدى إلىتعقيد علقته‬ ‫دبأمريكا‪ .‬لكن تأميم قناة السويس ساعد على تحسين العلقات حينما ناشد الرئيس المريكى أيزنهمماور الممدول المعتديممة النسممحاب‬ ‫من مصر‪.‬‬ ‫دبعد أزمة السويس زادت شعبية ناصر الذى أصبح يمثل قوى التحرر و القومية العردبية دبعد مرحلة السممتعمار‪ .‬لممم يممتردد ناصممر‬ ‫فى استخدام هذه الشعبية لبسط نفواذ مصر‪ .‬تدخل ناصر ناصر ليسبب عدم الستقرار لحكومات صديقة للوليا المتجدة المريكية‬ ‫ثكما فى العراق‪ ,‬الردن و لبنان‪ .‬ثكما أنه ساعد الفلسطينيين علمى شمن حمرب عصمادبات علمى الهممداف السمرائيلية‪ .‬و قممد ثكممانت‬ ‫حرب اليمن علمة فارقة حيث تدخل الجيش المصرى ضد الملكيين فى اليمن المدعومين من قبل السعودية و الغرب‪.‬‬ ‫على الصعيد الداخلى اتبع نلصر النهج الشممتراثكى حيممث قمام يتممأميم رجميممع البنمموك و الشممرثكات التجاريممة و تممم تقسمميم الملكيممات‬ ‫الزراعية لتوزيع الثروة على الشعب‪ .‬ثكما أنه قام دبحظر رجميممع الحممزاب السياسممية فيممما عممدا التحمماد الشممتراثكى العردبممى الممذى‬ ‫سيطر على الحياه السياسة المصرية‪ .‬رجاءت الهزيمة المصرية فى حرب اليام الست مهينة لمصر و لكنها لم تحطم ناصر الممذى‬ ‫)‪(1‬‬ ‫قطع العلقات الددبلوماسية مع الوليات المتحدة و تعه فى اذلك عدة دول أخرى‪.‬‬

‫السادات و السلم العردبى السرائيلى‪:‬‬ ‫دبعد موت ناصر تولى السادات‪ ,‬الذى ثكان واحدا من الظباط الحرار‪ ,‬الدفة المصرية و حكم مصر‪ .‬ف هذا الوقت ثكات مصر قممد‬ ‫فقدت الكثير من الزخم دبسبب الهزيمة فى حرب اليام الست و احتلل اسرائيل لجزء من الراضى المصرية‪ .‬إلى رجانب‬ ‫‪(1) http://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/gamal_abdel_nasser.htm‬‬ ‫هذا فإن عملية إعادة دبنماء الجيمش المصمرى ثك انت مكلفمة حيمث ثك انت تبتلمع مما يق رب ممن ‪ %25‬ممن ارجممالى الناتمج القمومى‬ ‫المصرى‪ .‬فى ظل هذه الظروف رأى السادات أن نصرا عسكريا مصريا على إسرائيل ثكممان ضممروريا اتقويممة شممرعيته ثكرئيممس‬ ‫لمصر أول ولتقوية موقف مصر فى أى مفاوضات مستقبلية مع إسرائيل ثانيا‪ ,‬فكانت حممرب أثكتممودبر ‪ .1973‬لقممد ثكممانت الحممرب‬ ‫نصرا لمصر وإن شادبها دبعض القصور أثناء الثغرة و لكن السادات نجح فى استغلل الهالة التى أحاطت دبه و دعم ممموقفه ثكرئممي‬ ‫مصرى و أشعل شرارة المفاوضات مع إسرائيل لول مرة فى تاريح الصراع العردبى السرائيلى‪.‬‬ ‫فى نوفمبر ‪ 1973‬استعادت مصر علقاتها الددبلوماسية مع الوليات المتحممدة المريكيممة‪ ,‬و شممارثكت ثكل الممدولتين فمى محادثممات‬ ‫السلم فى مؤتمر رجنيف فى ديسمبر من نفس العام‪ .‬و قد قام وزير الخاررجية المريكى هنرى ثكيسنجر دبجولت مكوثكية أسفرت‬

‫عن اتفاقات وقف إطلق النار دبين مصر و إسرائيل ثم سوريا و إسرائيل عام ‪ .1974‬أدى هذا إلى أن استأنفت الوليات المتحممدة‬ ‫تقديم المساعدات القتصادية لمصر عام ‪.1975‬‬ ‫يوم ‪ 20‬نوفمبر ‪ 1977‬قام السادات دبزيارته التاريخية لسرائيل ثكبادرة حسن نية و قد ثكان أول رئيس عردبى يزور إسرائيل و قد‬ ‫ثكان اذلك غعترافا ضمنيا دبإسرائيل‪ .‬فى نهاية صيف ‪ 1978‬ارجتمع قادة إسرائيل مع السادات فى مجمع ثكامب ديفيد فى أمريكا من‬ ‫أرجل إنقااذ عملية السلم و دبعد أسبوعين مممن المفاوضممات المضممنية تممم توقيممع دبروتمموثكلين دبيممن ممثلممى مصممر و إسممرائيل‪ .‬وضممع‬ ‫البروتوثكول الول إطارا عاما للسلم فى الشرق الوسط ثككل‪ ,‬أمما الثمانى فوضممع مقدممة لعمليمة السمملم دبيمن مصممر و إسمرائيل‬ ‫والذى انتهى دبتوقيع اتفاقية السلم دبينهما عام ‪.1979‬‬ ‫فى ‪ 26‬مارس ‪ 1979‬وقع ثكل من أنور السادات و مناحم دبيجين على اتفاقية السلم فى البيت الدبيض دبحضور الرئيس المريكى‬ ‫رجيمى ثكارتر‪ .‬دبعد التوقيع دبثللثة أيام صوت العرب على طرد مصر من رجامعة الدول العردبية و تم نقل مقرها إلممى تممونس حيممث‬ ‫شعر العرب دبأن مصر قد خانتهم‪.‬‬ ‫توقيع مصر لتفاقية السلم مع إسرائيل ثكان نقطة التحول الكبرى فى تاريخ العلقات المصمرية المريكيمةحيث وقعمت مصمر و‬ ‫أمريكا على مذثكرة تفاهم‪ ,‬تدخل أمريكا دبمقتضاها فى شراثكة أمنية مع مصر متضمنة مبيعات سلح للنظممام المصممرى وأن تقمموم‬ ‫الوليات المتحدة دبتحمل رجزء من تكاليف هذه السلحة‪ .‬فى عام توقيع التفاقية منحت أمريكا ثكل الطرفيممن مسمماعدات دبممما قيمتممه‬ ‫‪ 7.3‬مليار دولر أمريكى‪.‬‬ ‫ساعدت هذه المساعدات مصر على تخفيف عبء ميزانية الدفاع المصرية و فى نفس المموقت تحممديث أسمملحتها الممتى تررجممع إلممى‬ ‫الحقبة السوفيتية‪ .‬ثكما أن هذه المساعدات القتصادية ساعدت مصر على على تحديث دبنيتهما التحتيمة فاسمتخدمت فمى دبنماء شمبكة‬ ‫التليفونات و آلف المدارس و المنشآت الطبية‪ .‬ثكما أن أمريكا شارثكت فى قوات حفظ السلم على طول خط الحدود دبين مصر و‬ ‫إسرائيل‪.‬‬

‫تحت حكم مبارك‪:‬‬ ‫رجاءت النهاية الدرامية للسادات عام ‪ 1981‬إثر اغتياله على يممد دبعممض الجنممود المنتميممن فكريمما لمنظمممة الجهمماد السمملمى أثنمماء‬ ‫العرض العسكرى احتفال دبحرب ‪ . 1973‬دبعد اغتيال السادات تولى دفة الحكم الرئيس محمد حسممنى مبممارك الممذى مممازال يشممغل‬ ‫المنصب حتى يومنا هذا‪ .‬تحت ظل حكم مبارك سارت مصر على الخط الذى رسمه السادات دبالحفظ علممى السمملم مممع إسممرائيل‬ ‫على الرغم من انتقادات الكثيرين له دبوصفه "سلما دباردا"‪ .‬دبالتوازى مع اذلك ح افظت حمافظت مص ر علمى علقمات وديمة ممع‬ ‫أمريكا و ثكانت حليفا لها فى العديد من المواضيع‪ ,‬فعلى سبيل المثال شارثكت مصر ثكجزء من قمموات التحمالف الممتى عملمت ضممد‬ ‫صدام ‪ 1991‬أثناء عملية عاصفة الصحراء‪ .‬و قد أخذت ثكل من مصر و أمريكا فى القيممام دبمنمماورات عسممكرية مشممترثكة دبمعممدل‬ ‫مرة ثكل عامين منذ عام ‪.1983‬‬ ‫مازالت مصر فى صدام مع السلميين المتشددين منذ فترة طويلة المر الذى أسفر عممن عممددا ثكممبيرا مممن الضممحايا خاصممة فممى‬ ‫الفترة من ‪ 1992‬و حتى ‪ .1997‬دبعد هجمات سبتمبر ترارجعت العلقات المصرية المريكية إثر ازدياد الضغط المريكممى علممى‬ ‫مصر لنشر الديموقراطية‪.‬‬

‫الموقف الراهن‪:‬‬ ‫منذ أن وصل الرئيس رجوج دبوش إلى البيت الدبيض أحذت العلقات المصرية المريكيمة فمى التقهقمر حممتى وصملت غلمى نقطممة‬ ‫مثيرة للقلق‪ .‬فى منتدى دافوس فى شرمالشيخ ‪ 1998‬شن دبوش هجوما حادا على النظم العردبية و وصممفها دبعممدم الديموقراطيممة و‬ ‫أنها يجب أن تنفتح أثكثر على الديموقراطية و تقلع عن عادة الثكثار من المسجونين السياسمميين و تحممدث عممن ممما أسممماه دبامتهممان‬ ‫حقوق النساء فى الوطن العردبى فى حين أنه لم يتحدث دبما فه الكفاية عن القضية الفلسطينية‪ .‬هذا و قد وصل دبوش و زورجته إلممى‬ ‫قاعة المؤتمر دبعد ساعة من دبداية الحدث و لم يحضر خطبة الرئيس المصرى و قد خرج مبارك دبممدوره مممن قاعممة المممؤتمر ولممم‬ ‫يحضر الخطاب المريكى‪ .‬ثكما أن زيارات مبارك إلى أمريكا و التى ثكممانت سممنوية انقطعممت لمممدة خمممس سممنوات حممتى تغيممرت‬ ‫إدارة دبوش‪.‬‬ ‫الدارة فى عهد دبوش ثكانت تضغط ثكثيرا على نقطة الديموقراطية و حقوق النسان فى مصر‪ .‬فقد قال دبوش أنممه دائممما ممما يكممون‬ ‫قائد ى السلطة و آخر فى السجن‪ .‬ثكما أن إدارة دبوش تجاهلت طويل القضية الفلسطينية‪ ,‬و على الرغم من التنممازلت العممدة الممتى‬ ‫قدمتها السلطة الفلسطينية دبقيادة أدبو مازن فإن أمريكا لم تضغط علممى إسممرائيل لتقممديم اى تنممازلت مممن أى نمموع‪ .‬ثكممما أن حممرب‬ ‫العراق ثكانت سببا فى الصدام المصرى المريكى و قد رفضت مصر المشارثكة دبأي قوت حفظ سملم فمى العمراق أو ف ى رجهمود‬ ‫إعادة العمار اتى تقودها أمريكا‪ .‬فمصر ترى أمريكا ثكفوة محتلة و هى ترفض الدخول فى العراق قبل زوال الحتلل‪.‬‬ ‫دبعد مجئ أودباما إلى البيت الدبيض ارتفعت آمال الجميع وسط توقعات دبحدوث تحسمن فمى العلقمات‪ .‬لقمد تحسمنت لهجمة أمريكما‬ ‫ثكثيرا أثناء ثكلمها عن مصر فقلت لهجة النتقاد و قد اختار أودباما القاهرة ثكى تكون المنصة المتى يحمدث العمالم السملمى منمه‪.‬‬ ‫لهجة أودباما تصالحية ثكما أنه يولى اهتماما ثكبيرا للقضية الفلسطينية‪ .‬ثكما أن أودباما راى أن الديموقراطية فى الوطن العردبممى لهمما‬

‫أنياب ثكم هو الحال فى أى مكان فى العالم‪ ,‬فقد أتت الديموقرطية فى مصر دبجماعة الخوان المسلمين المتشددين ليسيطروا علممى‬ ‫‪ %20‬من مقاعد البرلمان المصرى ثكما أن حماس سيطرت على المجلس التشريعى الفلسطينى فى ‪ .2006‬ل نسممتطيع أن ننسممى‬ ‫القضايا الهامة الخرى التى تحتاج فيها أمريكا لمساعدة مصر و على رأسها التغلغل اليرانى فى المنطقة و موارجهة حزب ا‪.‬‬ ‫أودباما يقف عند مفترق الطرق فهل يعود لسلوب دبوش التصادمى و يضغط من أرجل المزيد ممن الصملح فمى مصمر و خاصمة‬ ‫أننا نقف على أعتاب انتخادبات دبرلمانية تليها انتخادبات رئاسية فى مصر أم يسمتمر فممى لهجتممه التصمالحية و يضممع نصمب عينيممه‬ ‫حارجته للمساعدة المصرية لتصفية الكثير من القضايا العالقة فى الشرق الوسط ‪.‬‬

‫القضايا اذات الهتمام المشترك‬ ‫الصراع العردبى الفلسطينى‪:‬‬ ‫مصر هى أثكبر البلد العردبية و هى التى تورجه دفة الصراع مع إسرائيل‪ ,‬فعندما ثكانت مصر تستعد للحرب مع إسممرائيل التممف العممرب رجميعمما‬ ‫حولها و أيدوها رجميعا‪ ,‬و عندما قررت مصر أنه حان الوقت للسلم ووقعت اتفاقية السلم مممع إسممرائيل تمموقفت الحممروب العردبيممة السممرائيلية فيممما عممدا‬ ‫دبعض المناوشات على الجبهة اللبنانية و لكنها ل تتعدى النطاق الضيق للراضى اللبنانية‪ .‬نعم الدول العردبيممة دول متعممددة لهمما آراء مختلفممة و يسممتطيعون‬ ‫اتخااذ قرارات دبعيدا عن القاهرة‪ ,‬و لكن دبدون القاهرة تصبح ثكلها عديمة الجدوى‪ ,‬فإن لم يتخذ القرار فى القاهرة فإن تممأثيره ل يتعممدى المكممان الممذى إتخممذ‬ ‫فيه‪ .‬فإاذا تم إقناع مصر دبأنه ل فائدة تررجى من الحرب فإن الدول العردبية الخرى لن تجرؤ على شن أى حرب‪.‬‬ ‫علمممى الرغمممم ممممن أن مكانمممة مصمممر القليميمممة انخفضمممت تمممدريجيا علمممى ممممدى عقمممود ‪ ،‬فمممإن مصمممر ل تمممزال تلعمممب دورا حيويممما‬ ‫فى مساعدة الوليات المتحدة الحكومة فى التغلب على تعقيدات الصراع السرائيلي الفلسطيني و حل طلسم الساحة السياسية الفلسطينية ‪ ،‬والسعي للسلم‬ ‫الشامل في الشرق الوسط‪ .‬مصر ثكانت تطمح دائما لدور أمريكي أثكثر نشمماطا فمي عمليمة السملم ‪ ،‬وعلمى غمرار معظممم المدول العردبيممة ‪ ،‬انتقمدت المدعم‬ ‫الميرثكي لسرائيلواصفة إياه دبأنه "غير متوازن"‪ .‬ومع اذلك ‪ ،‬فإن مصر وإسرائيل قد حافظتا على السلم منذ عام ‪ 1979‬واللتزامات الناشئة عن السمملم‬ ‫‪ ،‬على الرغم من أن العلقات دبينهما ل تزال دباردة ‪ .‬فقد أرجريا الحوار حول القضايا اذات الهتمام المشترك ‪ ،‬مثل عزل حماس فى قطاع غزة‪ .‬مصممر تعممد‬ ‫مؤيدا قويا للسلطة الفلسطينية فى الضفة الغردبية ولقد حاولت عبثا منذ اشهر للحصول علممى حكومممة الوحممدة الوطنيممة الفلسممطينية الممتي يمكممن معهمما إعممادة‬ ‫‪(1).‬‬ ‫تأسيس ورجود للسلطة الفلسطينية في قطاع غزة‬ ‫الهم من اذلك ‪ ،‬تود مصر أن تبقى حماس تحت السيطرة‪ .‬نظام مبارك يعارضه السلميون الذين صوتا معارضا و قويا داخممل مصممر‪ ،‬وانممه‬ ‫يخشى من ان حماس يمكن ان تكون نمواذرجا لنشطاء رجماعة الخوان المسلمين المصرية الذين قد يسعون إلى إقامة دولة دينيممة فممي مصممر‪ .‬دبالضممافة إلممى‬ ‫اذلك ‪ ،‬تسعى مصر للحفاظ على الحدود مع قطاع غزة‪ ,‬فقد اغلقت معظمها ممن ارج ل الحيلول ة دون دخمول الممدنيين الفلسمطينيين المى شمبه رجزيمرة سميناء‬ ‫دبأعممداد ثكممبيرة ‪ ،‬ثكممما فعلمموا خلل ينمماير ‪ 2008‬عنممدا اخممترقوا الحممدود المصممرية دبأعممداد ثكممبيرة قممدرها البعممض دبحمموالى ‪ .750000‬وفقمما لحممد المعلقيممن‬ ‫الفلسطينية ‪" ،‬دبالنسبة لمصر ‪ ،‬قضية حماس ليس فقط عن السياسة وعلقتها مع الخوان المسلمين‪ .‬دبل هى أيضا عمن الممن والعلقمة دبيمن حمماس و دبمدو‬ ‫سيناء‪ .‬القاهرة لها مخاوف من احتمال ان تزرع حماس خليا نائمة في سيناء ثم يجري تنشيطها لتنفيذ هجمات مناهضة لسرائيل داخل مصر "‪.‬‬ ‫ترتكز الددبلوماسية المصرية فى الوساطة دبين الفصمائل الفلسمطينية واسمرائيل وحمماس عل ى تحقيمق حكوممة وحمدة فلسمطينية وايجماد طريقمة‬ ‫لنجاح صفقة تبادل السرى دبين اسرائيل وحماس و وقف اطلق النار‪ .‬من ورجهة نظر مصمر‪ ,‬فمإن حمل همذه القضمية دبنجماح و الوصمول لنقطمة ترضمى‬ ‫الجميع قد يضع الساس القوى لبداية مفاوضات الوضع النهائى لرسء السلم و إنهاء الصراع العردبى السرائيلى‪ .‬ومع اذلك ‪ ،‬ففممي حيممن قممام مسممؤولون‬ ‫مصريون دبإرجراء عدة رجولت من المحادثات والددبلوماسية المكوثكية ‪ ،‬فإن ما تبذله من رجهود قد آتت دبالقليل من الثمار ‪ ،‬حيث لم تكممن هنمماك أي انجممازات‬ ‫ثكبرى في الوساطة دبين إسرائيل وحماس ودبين فتح وحماس‪ .‬حماس قد طالبت دبأن أي صفقة تبادل السرى عن الجنممدي السممرائيلي رجلعمماد شممليط تنطمموي‬ ‫على العودة من ‪ 450‬اسيرا فلسطينيا المقدرة ‪ ،‬دبما في اذلك ارتفاع عدد من القادة لمحة مثل مروان البرغوثي و هو ما ترفضه إسرائيل‪.‬‬ ‫على الرغم من أنه مستمر منذ عقود ‪ ،‬فالتهريب عبر شبكة من النفاق على الحدود دبين مصر وغزة أصبح على نطاق واسممع دبسممبب الحصممار‬ ‫السرائيلي الكامل على قطاع غزة‪,‬و زيادة فى طلب حماس للسلحة ‪ ،‬إلى رجانب عدم ورجود دبدائل اقتصادية قادبلة للستمرار عدا السوق السمموداء النشممطة‬ ‫على ثكل الجانبين من الحدود‪ .‬على مدى السنوات الثلث الماضية ‪ ،‬تهريب السلحة ثكان قد ازداد دبشممكل ملحمموظ دبسممبب القتممال دبيممن الفصممائل الفلسممطينية‬ ‫واعمال العنف السرائيلية الفلسطينية‪ .‬في الوقت نفسه ‪ ،‬فإن الطلب على السلع التجارية داخل قطاع غزة قد تزايد دبشكل ملحمموظ دبسممبب المقاطعممة الدوليممة‬ ‫للسلطة الفلسطينية التي أعقبت تشكيل الحكومة التي تقودها حماس في عام ‪ 2006‬واغلق اسرائيل لقطاع غمزة دبعمد فموز حرثكمة حممماس فمي عمام ‪2007‬‬ ‫استحوااذ قطاع غزة‪.‬‬ ‫‪http://www.arabicnews.com/ansub/Daily/Day/030712/2003071206.html‬‬

‫)‪(1‬‬

‫ثكان هناك هدف واحد لسرائيل من الحرب في غزة ‪ 2009-2008‬أل و هو تدمير أثكبر عدد ممكن من النفاق المورجودة تحت الرض‪ .‬علممى الرغممم مممن‬ ‫أن المسئولين العسكريين السرائيليين يقدرون أن تكرر عمليات القصف الجمموي دمممر مئممات مممن النفمماق‪ ،‬فممإن العديممد مممن التقممارير تشممير إلمى أن نشمماط‬ ‫التهريب قد استؤنف‪ .‬يشير الخبراء إلى ورجود عدد من العوامل المساهمة في تجارة التهريب الجارية دبين مصر وقطاع غزة ‪ ،‬دبما في اذلك ‪:‬‬

‫‪‬‬

‫‪‬‬

‫‪‬‬

‫انتشار التهريب دبين البدو المصريين في شبه رجزيرة سيناء‪ ,‬فالمجتمع البدوي الممى حممد ثكممبير يحكممم‬ ‫نفسه دبنفسه ويعتمد رجزئيا على تهريب البضائع والشخاص والمخممدرات والسمملحة لكسممب العيممش‬ ‫فإن التهريب مصدر رزقهم الوحيد‪.‬‬ ‫سهولة دبناء النفق‪ .‬وفقما لتقمارير وسمائل العلم العديممدة نممرى أن النفمماق تمممول مممن قبممل العشمائر‬ ‫الفلسطينية والبدوية المتلحمة علممى رجممانبي الحممدود ب‪$ -- 30،000 $‬مم ‪ 120،000‬لكممل منهمما ‪،‬‬ ‫اعتمادا طول وعمق ثكل نفق و النفق يحقق أردباحا توازى ثمنه فى فترة قصيرة رجدا‪.‬‬ ‫عدم ورجود قوات أمن ثكافية علممى رجممانبي الحممدود علممى الرغممم مممن ورجممود الرادة السياسممية لوقممف‬ ‫عمليات التهريب‪ .‬على الرغم من أن مصر قد تكون أثكثر رجدية في وقف تهريممب السمملحة ‪ ،‬يزعممم‬ ‫البعض الخر أن قوات حرس الحدود المصرية تنظر للمور دبطريقة أخرى عنممدما تكممون النفمماق‬ ‫لتهريب سلع غير البنادق والذخيرة‪ .‬ووفقا لمالك أحد النفاق ‪" ،‬هن اك الكمثير ممن النماس المهتميمن‬

‫في الدبقاء على النفمماق المفتوحممة‪ .‬هنمماك الكممثير مممن المممال الممذى يممأتى منهمما "‪ ".‬غممزة المهردبممون‬ ‫استعداد لستئناف العمل "‪.‬‬

‫احتواء الدور اليرانى‪:‬‬ ‫على مر التاريخ ‪ ،‬ثكانت مصر وايران فى منافسة شرسة ‪ ،‬و ثكان اذلك نتارجا طبيعيا لتوازن القوى فى المنطقة‪ .‬مصر تعتبر ا حامل لواء القومية العردبية ‪،‬‬ ‫وإيران الفارسية دبمثادبة حروج عن القاعدة‪ .‬خلل الحرب الباردة ‪ ،‬ثكانت مصر متحالفة عسكريا مع التحاد السوفياتي في حيممن ثكممانت ايممران دولممة عميلمة‬ ‫للوليات المتحدة‪ .‬ثم ‪ ،‬في أواخر سبعينيات القرن الماضى‪ ،‬نتيجة لتفاقات ثكممامب ديفيمد للسمملم والثممورة اليرانيمة‪ ,‬دبممدلت ثكمل ممن مصمر وايممران أممماثكن‬ ‫انتماءاتهم القليمية و العالمية‪ .‬فإدبرام مصر لمعاهدة السلم مع اسرائيل‪ ,‬أسفر عن ورجود علقة أوثق مع الوليات المتحدة ‪ ،‬وقامت إيران دبتطوير علقات‬ ‫قويمممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممة ممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممع روسممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممميا‪.‬‬ ‫ايران لم تعترض على مصر دبسبب معاهدة السلم مع اسرائيل فقط ‪ ،‬ولكممن أيضمما لستضممافتها للشمماه المخلمموع ودعمهمما للعممراق خلل الحممرب اليرانيممة‬ ‫العراقية )‪ .( 1988-1980‬و ثكوسيلة للرد ‪ ،‬قامت إيران دبالحتفال دباغتيال الرئيس المصري السادبق أنور السادات ‪ ،‬وتسمية أحد الشوارع دباسم قاتله )خالد‬ ‫السلمبولي(‪ .‬المصريون أصروا على تغيير اسم هذا الشارع و إزالة النصب الذى يكرم السلمبولى قبل اقامة علقات طبيعية مع إيران‪.‬‬ ‫حاليا ‪ ،‬مصر تشعر دبالقلق إزاء دعم ايران للمسلحين الفلسطينيين ‪ ،‬وخاصة حرثكة حمماس وممن نفممواذ ايممران فمي العمراق ‪ ،‬والبرنامممج النممووي اليرانمي‪.‬‬ ‫سيطرة حماس على قطاع غزة يشكل تحديا لمصر المجاورة له ‪ .‬فايران ثكانت مصدر لصواريخ سام التى دمرتها ضردبة رجوية في السودان‪ .‬ثكما أن ورجود‬ ‫ايران مسلحة نوويا وتأثير هذا على توازن القوى القليمي يمثل مشكلة ملحة من قلق أمني‪ .‬مصر تعارض دبحزم طموحات ايران النووية ‪ ،‬ثكما هو الحممال‬ ‫مع موقفها تجاه البرنامج النووي السري السرائيلي فمصر قد دعت إلى شرق أوسط "خال من السلحة النووية"‪ .‬مصر مممن المدول الموقعمة علمى اتفاقيمة‬ ‫عدم انتشار السلحة النووية )معاهدة حظر النتشار النووي( وتعهدت دبعدم تطوير اسلحة أو دبرامج عسكرية خاصة دبها‪ .‬ثكما رفضت ارجراء محادثات مممع‬ ‫الوليات المتحدة دبخصوص الدرع النووي لحماية دول الخليج وردبما مصر من هجوم ايراني‪.‬‬ ‫دبين عامي ‪ 2007‬و ‪ ، 2008‬لسباب ليست على دررجة عالية من الوضوح ‪ ،‬دبدأت ومصممر وإيممران حمموارا مبممدئيا لستكشمماف تحسممين العلقممات الثنائيممة‪.‬‬ ‫خلل تلك الفترة ‪ ،‬ثكانت إيران تمد يدها لعدد من الدول العردبية السمنية ‪ ،‬فيمما أسممماه البعممض هجوممما شرسما يهمدف إلمى تهدئمة المخماوف مممن طموحاتهما‬ ‫القليمية ودبرنامجها النووي‪ .‬مصر أيضا ردبما ثكانت تتطلع الى إثارة الهتمام وسمط دوائمر صمنع القمرار فمي الوليمات المتحمدة ‪ ،‬علمى أم ل أن مبادرتهما‬ ‫المستقلة مع ايران قد تجذب مزيدا من الهتمام والدعم السياسي في ادارة دبوش ‪ ،‬في وقت ثكانت فيه العلقات قد توترت دبسبب قلق الوليممات المتحممدة إزاء‬ ‫حقوق النسان في مصر‪.‬‬ ‫في ‪ 8‬أدبريل ‪ ، 2009‬أعلنت الحكومة المصرية أنها قد ثكشفت عن ‪ 49‬شخصا يكونون الخلية لحزب ا تعمل في الخفاء في مصر‪ .‬وفقا للسمملطات ‪ ،‬ثكممان‬ ‫أعضاء الخلية يرصدون حرثكة السفن في قناة السويس ‪ ،‬وثكانوا يخططون لشن هجمات ارهادبية ضد منتجعات سياحية دبسيناء ‪ ،‬ودبخاصة تلممك الممتي يممتردد‬ ‫عليها السرائيليون‪ .‬ثكما اتهمت مصر حزب ا دبتهريب السلحة لحماس على طول الحدود دبين مصر وغزة ونشر "الفكر الشيعي" داخل مصمر‪ .‬فمي ‪10‬‬ ‫أدبريل ‪ ،‬زعيم حزب ا الشيخ حسن نصر ا اعترف دبأن أحد المتآمرين في الحجز قد تم ارساله الى مصر لرجراء "استطلعات" لحزب ا‪.‬‬ ‫دبورجه عام ‪ ،‬طالما تواصل ايران دبرنامجها النووي وتواصل دبقوة دعم حماس وحزب ا ‪ ،‬فإن مصر تشعر دبأنها مهددة ‪ ،‬وستعمل علممى موارجهممة السياسممة‬ ‫اليرانية ‪ ،‬على الرغم من رجهود ايران من حين لخر لمهادنة مصر من ارجل تعزيز موقفها الددبلوماسي القليمي‪ ،‬ول سيما دبين الدول العردبية‪ .‬ومع اذلممك ‪،‬‬ ‫فإن أى موارجهة مباشرة تبدو من المستبعد تماما‪ .‬في الوقت الحالي‪ ،‬سوف تستخدم إيران الجهات الفاعلة غير الحكومية لستفزاز والضممغط علممى مصممر ‪،‬‬ ‫في حين أن حكومة مبارك سوف تستمر في حشد الدول السنية العردبية الخرى المحيطة دبها تحممت سمميطرتها للدبقماء علمى إيمران دبل تمأثير‪ .‬مصمر أيضما‬ ‫سوف تستمر في مطالبة إسرائيل والوليات المتحدة دبالسعى دبجد للوصول إلى حل للقضية الفلسطينية حتى تحرم إيران من الذريعة التى تستخدمها للتدخل‬ ‫) ‪(1‬‬ ‫فى المنطقة أل و هى المقاومة‪.‬‬

‫قضية السودان‪:‬‬ ‫الحفاظ على وحدة السودان والحفاظ على نصيب مصر من مياه نهر النيل هي الولية الولى القصوى فى نظرية المن القومي المصممري‪ .‬نهممر النيممل هممو‬ ‫شريان الحياة لمصر والمصدر الرئيسي للمياه العذدبة‪ .‬النيممل الزرق والنيممل الدبيممض يلتقيممان فممي العاصمممة السممودانية الخرطمموم‪ .‬وفقمما لحممد الثكمماديميين‬ ‫المصممممممممممممريين‪" ،‬دبالنسممممممممممممبة لمصممممممممممممر ‪ ،‬تهديممممممممممممدا لنهممممممممممممر النيممممممممممممل يشممممممممممممكل تهديممممممممممممدا للمممممممممممممن القممممممممممممومي‪".‬‬ ‫وقد ثكانت مصر مؤيد قوي لتفاق السلم الشامل لعام ‪ (CPA ) 2005‬دبين الخرطوم ورجنوب السودان‪ .‬ثكما انها ارسلت ‪ 1،200‬ثكمراقممبين وقمموات حفممظ‬ ‫سلم إلى الجنوب ولقد رورجت لستثماراتها الخاصة هناك ‪ ،‬مثل دبنمماء محطممات الطاقمة ‪ ،‬والجامعممات ‪ ،‬والمستشممفيات‪ .‬فممي نوفمممبر ‪ ، 2008‬قمام الرئيممس‬ ‫مبارك دبزيارة تاريخية الى رجودبا ‪ ،‬عاصمة رجنوب السودان في الجزء الذى يتمتع دبحكم اذاتي‪ .‬مصر قلقة دبعض الشيء مممن أن الجنممودبيين يمكنممأن يصمموتوا‬ ‫)‪(2‬‬ ‫على الستقلل في استفتاء عام ‪.2011‬‬ ‫الدانات الدولية للحكومة السودانية والتواطؤ في القتل للجماعات المسلمة من أصول أفريقية من رجانب ميليشمميا الجنجويممد العردبيممة فممي دارفممور قممد وضممع‬ ‫مصر في موقف حرج ددبلوماسيا‪ .‬من ناحية ‪ ،‬مصر حاولت رمزيا دعم الجهود الدولية الرامية إلى تخفيف حدة الزمة النسانية في دارفممور‪ .‬حممتى يومنمما‬ ‫هذا ‪ ،‬أسهمت مصر دبحوالى ‪ 2،300‬من قوات حفظ السلم التادبعة للتحاد الفريقي ‪ /‬المم المتحدة المختلطممة فممي دارفممور ) ‪ .(UNAMID‬مممن ناحيممة‬ ‫أخرى ‪ ،‬مصر ‪ ،‬من خلل الجامعة العردبية ‪ ،‬رفضت دعوة الوليات المتحدة لتسمممية عمليممات القتممل فممي دارفممور دبانهمما "ادبممادة رجماعيممة" ونممددت دبفممرض‬ ‫الوليات المتحدة عقودبات على الحكومة السودانية‪ .‬وفقا لوزير الخاررجية المصري أحمد أدبو الغيط ‪ ،‬قال "العقودبات لمم تحمل مشممكلة أدبمدا‪ ".‬مصمر انتقممدت‬ ‫المحكمة الجنائية الدولية )‪ ( ICC‬حينما أصدرت أمرا دباعتقال الرئيس السوداني عمر البشير دبتهمة ارتكاب رجرائممم ضممد النسممانية ورجرائممم الحممرب الممتي‬

‫ارتكبت في دارفور‪ .‬وقد حاولت مصر التوسط في مفاوضات السلم دبين الفصائل المتحاردبة في دارفور ‪ ،‬و قد عبرت عن انزعارجها تجاه قطر لمحاولتهمما‬ ‫القيام دبدور الوسيط في عقر دار مصر‪.‬‬ ‫من أرجل رجعل أى حل فى السودان قادبل للستمرار فإن الوليات المتحدة تحتاج لمدعم مصمر المتى تملمك الكممثير ممن طمرق الضمغط سمواء فمى الشممال أو‬ ‫الجنوب‪ .‬ثكما أن مصر لها مصلحة استراتيجية فى استقرار السودان مما يجعلها أثكثر استعدادا من غيرها على إرسال قمموات حفممظ سمملم للسممودان‪ ,‬و هممى‬ ‫قوات قد تقبلها حكومة البشير دبرحادبة صدر‪.‬‬

‫الحرب ضد الرهاب‪:‬‬ ‫دبعد هجمات الحادى شر من سبتمبر شنت أمريكا ما دبات يعرف دبالحرب العالمية ضد الرهاب‪ .‬طلبت أمريكا ثكل عون من الممكن أن يتوافر لها مممن ثكممل‬ ‫حممممممممممممدب و صمممممممممممموب و هنمممممممممممما تممممممممممممدخلت مصممممممممممممر‪ .‬أيمممممممممممممن الظممممممممممممواهرى اليممممممممممممد اليمنممممممممممممى لبممممممممممممن لدن‬ ‫و الررجل الثانى فى القاعدة هو فى الحقيقة مصري الجنسية‪ .‬ثكما أن معظم أعضاء تنظيم القاعدة و أيضا أهم أعضائه هممم مصممريون الجنسممية‪ .‬ثكممما أن دبممن‬ ‫لدن نفسه قضى فترة ل دبأس دبها داخل السودان‪ ,‬الباحة الخلفية لمصر‪ .‬هؤلء المصريون عملموا ف ى مصمر لفمترة تحمت رايمة الجماعمات السملمية فمى‬ ‫مصر قبل أن يترثكوها مجبرين أو مكرهين و يجدوا أنفسهم أعضاء ما سمى فيما دبعد دبتنظيممم القاعممدة‪ .‬هممذا يعنممى أن مصممر قممد تكممون الطممرف الممذى لممديه‬ ‫المعلومات الثكثر غزارة و القرب للدقة عن هؤلء الرهادبيين مما يعنى أنها الطرف الثكثر قدرة على مساعدة أمريكا فى حردبهمما ضممد الرهمماب‪ .‬مصممر‬ ‫عانت ثكثيرا من ويلت الرهاب و الرهادبيين‪ ,‬فالغتيال الثكثر شهرة فى مصر تم على يد هؤلء عندما قتلوا السمادات‪ ,‬ثكممما أنهممم قماموا دبعمليممات أخممرى‬ ‫ثكثيرة استهدفت مؤسسات مصر العديدة و خاصة المؤسسات السياحية دبغرض ضرب القتصاد المصرى و إضعافه فيثور‬ ‫‪“Egypt attacks Iran and allies in Arab world” Reuters, Jan., 28th 2009. http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE50R4IL20090128‬‬ ‫‪“Egyptian president says impressed by his visit to South Sudan” Sudan Tribune, Nov., 21st 2008.‬‬

‫)‪(1‬‬ ‫)‪(2‬‬

‫الشعب على الحكومة و يصلوا هم للحكم‪ .‬لكن الحكومة المصرية نجحت فى التعامل معهم و استطاعت الحد دبشممكل ثكممبير مممن قممدرتهم علممى العمممل علممى‬ ‫الراضى المصرية‪ .‬اثكتسبت الشرطة المصرية خبرة ثكبيرة فى اذلك المجال مما يجعلها قادرة علمى الضممافة للخممبرة المريكيمة فمى همذا المجمال‪ .‬ثكممما أن‬ ‫) ‪(1‬‬ ‫مصر وافقت من قبل على استقبال مسجونين تادبعين للمخادبرات المريكية على أراضيها لستجوادبهم‪.‬‬ ‫فى حردبها ضد الرهاب استخدمت مصر العديد من الوسائل التى رجذدبت النقد العالمى‪ .‬فى تقرير وزارة الخاررجية المريكية لعام ‪ ,2000‬انتقدت أمريكمما و‬ ‫دبشدة المحاثكمات العسكرية‪ ,‬ثكما أن المنظمات الدولية لحقوق النسان ورجهت نقدا شديدا للسلوب المصممرى دبوصممفه ل يراعممى أدبسممط الحقمموق للنسممان و‬ ‫تستخدم وسائل استجواب غير آدمية‪ .‬لكن النقد قل دبعد أحداث سبتمبر حيث أدرك الجميع حطورة الوضع و دبدأت أمريكا نفسها تستخدم السملوب اذاتمه ف ى‬ ‫محاثكمة المتورطين فى هجمات سبتمبر‪ .‬لكن النتقادات ما لبثت أن تصاعدت مرة أخرى حيث قال المحللين أن مصر نجحت فى طرد العناصر الرهادبية‬ ‫) ‪(2‬‬ ‫إلى خارج مصر و لكن فى نفس الوقت خرج هؤلء يسعون للنتقام خارج مصر على الراضى الغردبية مما رجعل النتقادات تزيد مرة أخرى‪.‬‬

‫سجل حقوق النسان‪:‬‬ ‫دبصفتها أحد أثكبر متلقي المساعدات المريكية ‪ ،‬تحظى مصر دباهتمام ثكبير من اعضاء البرلمان المريكى ‪ ،‬الذين يعتقد دبعضهم أن أرجزاء من المسمماعدات‬ ‫المريكية يجب ان تكممون مشمروطة لحمداث تحسممينات ف ي مصمر لسمجل حقموق النسمان‪ .‬وفقما لتقمارير وزارة الخاررجيمة المريكيمة لعمام ‪ 2008‬حمول‬ ‫ممارسات حقوق النسان ‪ " ،‬احترام الحكومة لحقوق النسان ضعيف ‪ ،‬وتستمر النتهاثكات الخطيرة في ثكثير من المجالت‪ ".‬حوى تقرير عممام ‪، 2008‬‬ ‫ثكما في السنوات الماضية ‪ ،‬وثائق عدة عن حالت من التعذيب نفذتها قوات المن المصرية‪ .‬نظمام السمجون ‪ ،‬ول سميما مرافمق الحتجماز‪ ,‬ال ذى يسمتخدم‬ ‫لحبس متطرفين اسلميين مشتبه دبهم ‪ ،‬يتعرض دبشكل متزايد للرقادبة الدولية‪ .‬ثكما أن تفاقم التشدد في المنطقة قد يعزى إلى ازدياد تطرف دبعض المجرميمن‬ ‫الذين تعرضوا للتعذيب على مدى فترات طويلة من الزمن فمى السمجون المصممرية ثكوسمميلة للنتقمام ممن الحكوممة و المجتممع‪ .‬العديممد ممن زعمماء تنظيمم‬ ‫القاعدة ‪ ،‬دبما في اذلك الررجل الثاني في التنظيم‪ ,‬ايمن الظواهري ‪ ،‬من السجناء السادبقين في السجون المصرية‪.‬‬ ‫توثق منظمات حقوق النسان الدولية منذ فترة طويلة حالت التعذيب والعتقال التعسفي ‪ ،‬والتمييز ضد المرأة ‪ ،‬المثليون رجنسيا ‪ ،‬والمسيحيين القباط في‬ ‫مصر‪ .‬في عام ‪ ، 2007‬أشادت اللجنة الدولية لمراقبة حقوق النسان "هيومان رايتس ووتش" دبالحكومة لدانتها اثنين من ضباط الشمرطة دبتهمممة احتجمماز‬ ‫وضرب ثم اغتصاب سائق حافلة يبلغ من العمر ‪ 21‬عاما دبينما ثكممان فممي الشممرطة‪ .‬ومممع اذلممك ‪ ،‬دبعممض المراقممبين يشمميرون إلممى أن الحممادث ثكممان محاولممة‬ ‫لسترضاء المجتمع الدولي وأنه لم يكن ليظهر إلى العلن لو أن الممدونين المصممريين لمم ينشمروا علمى الهمماتف المحمممول و علمى شمبكة النممترنت مشماهد‬ ‫الضرب‪.‬‬ ‫دبعض المصريين و الناشطين الدوليين في مجال حقوق النسان قد اتهموا الوليات المتحدة دبأن سياسممتها تجماه مصمر ف ي مجمال حقموق النسمان فمي همو‬ ‫النفاق ‪ ،‬مؤثكدين أن صناع السياسة المريكية لم يناصروا دبشكل ثكاف حقوق النسان في مصر نظرا لعتبارات السياسة الواقعيممة فمي المنطقممة‪ .‬دبالضممافة‬ ‫إلى اذلك ‪ ،‬العديد من التقارير تشير إلى أنه منذ هجمات ‪ 11‬سبتمبر ‪ 2001‬الرهادبية ‪ ،‬ووثكالة المخادبرات المرثكزيممة المريكيممة قممامت دبترحيممل عممدد ممممن‬ ‫يشتبه في انتمائهم لتنظيم القاعدة إلى مصر )مع دول عردبيممة أخمرى( مممن أرجممل السممتجواب وردبممما دبعممض التعممذيب دبعيممدا عمن أعيممن القضمماء المريكممى‪.‬‬ ‫المراقبين شككوا في مصداقية الوليات المتحدة في مجال حقوق النسان في سياستها تجاه مصممر ‪ ،‬ااذ ‪ ،‬مممن ناحيممة ‪ ،‬الوليممات المتحممدة تممدين الممارسممات‬ ‫المصرية ثكالتعذيب والعتقال غير القانوني ‪ ،‬و من رجهة أخرى تتغاضى عن سلوك الحكومة المصممرية عنممدما يناسممب مصممالح الوليممات المتحممدة المممن‬ ‫القومي‪.‬‬

‫العلقات التجارية المصرية المريكية‪:‬‬

‫الوليات المتحدة هي اثكبر شريك تجارى لمصر ‪ ،‬في حين أن مصر هي الشريك ال ‪ 52‬دبالنسبة للوليات المتحدة‪ .‬مصر هي واحدة من أثكبر السواق فممي‬ ‫رجميع أنحاء العالم دبالنسبة للقمح المريكي ومستورد ثكبير للسلع الزراعية الخرى ‪ ،‬واللت ‪ ،‬والمعدات‪ .‬الوليات المتحدة أيضا هي ثمماني أثكممبر مسممتثمر‬ ‫أرجنبي في مصر ‪ ،‬في قطاعي النفط والغاز في المقام الول‪ .‬منذ منتصف تسعينيات القرن الماضى ‪ ،‬سعى المسممؤولون المصممريون للتفماوض علمى اتفمماق‬ ‫التجارة الحرة مع الوليات المتحدة ‪ ،‬دبدعوى أن اتفاقية التجارة الحرة المصرية المريكية قد تعزز اقتصاد مصر دبنسبة تصل إلممى ‪ .٪ 3‬ثكخطمموة أولممى ‪،‬و‬ ‫قد وقع‬

‫‪(1) “The Egyptian way of fighting Terror” Scott Macleod, Time Magazine, Dec., 3rd 2001.‬‬ ‫‪(2) “Enemy mine” lee Smith, http://www.slate.com/id/2108163/‬‬ ‫الطرفان على التفاق الطاري التجارة والستثمار )‪ (TIFA‬في عام ‪ .1999‬أنشأتا مجلسا للتجارة والستثمار يتألف مممن ممثليممن عمن ثكل الحكومممتين و‬ ‫يرأسها الممثل التجاري للوليات المتحدة و وزير القتصاد المصرى‪ .‬حماية حقوق الملكية الفكرية ))‪IPR‬ثكانت دائما مرحلة ممما قبممل مفاوضممات اتفاقيممة‬ ‫التجارة الحرة‪ .‬و لكن هناك تحسن في حماية حقوق الملكية الفكرية‪ .‬في الماضي ‪ ،‬ثكانت مصر التي وصفها المسؤولون المريكيون دبممالتراخي فممي حمايممة‬ ‫حقوق الملكية الفكرية لصدار الموافقات ‪ ،‬وتسويق المنتجات الطبية و الدوائية غير المصرح دبها‪.‬‬ ‫في مايو ‪ ، 2009‬وقع الممثل التجارى المريكى رون ثكيرك و وزير التجارة والصناعة المصري رشيد محمد رشيد خطة لتحقيق الشراثكة الستراتيجية ‪،‬‬ ‫التي تهدف الى تعزيز التعاون القتصادي دبين الوليات المتحدة ومصر‪ .‬وفقا للوزير رشيد ‪" ،‬نريد مضاعفة حجم التبادل التجاري )مع الوليات المتحدة(‬ ‫في السنوات الردبع القادمة‪ ".‬وثكجزء من العلن ‪ ،‬وافق الجانبان على إضافة اثنين من المناطق الصناعية المؤهلة في صعيد مصر )فممي محممافظتي دبنممي‬ ‫سويف و المنيا‪(.‬‬

‫المساعدات المريكية لمصر‪:‬‬ ‫منذ عام ‪ ، 1979‬ثكانت مصر ثاني أثكبر متلق ‪ ،‬دبعد اسرائيل ‪،‬للمساعدات الخاررجية‪ .‬في ميزانية عممام ‪ ، 2009‬ثكممانت مصممر خممامس أثكممبر الممدول المتلقيممة‬ ‫للمساعدات وراء إسرائيل وأفغانستان ودباثكستان ‪ ،‬والعراق على التوالي‪ .‬في العقد الماضي ‪ ،‬ارجمالي المسمماعدات المريكيممة لمصممر قممد انخفممض مممن ‪2.1‬‬ ‫دبليون دولر في ‪ 1998‬إلى ‪ 1.6‬مليار دولر في ‪ 2009‬نظرا للنخفاض التدريجي في المساعدات القتصادية‪ .‬فممي يوليممو ‪ ، 2007‬وقعممت إدارة الرئيممس‬ ‫رجورج دبوش مذثكرة تفاهم مع اسرائيل لزيادة المساعدات العسكرية المريكية من ‪ 2.4‬دبليون دولر في ‪ 2008‬إلى ممما يزيممد علممى ‪ 3‬دبلييممن دولر دبحلممول‬ ‫عام ‪ . 2018‬مصر لم تتلق أي زيادة مماثلة في المساعدات العسكرية من الوليات المتحدة ‪ ،‬دبدل من اذلك ‪ ،‬تعهدت ادارة دبوش على السممتمرار فممي تزويممد‬ ‫مصر دبحوالى ‪ 1.3‬مليار دولر من المساعدات العسكرية سنويا ‪ ،‬وهو نفس المبلغ الذي تلقته سنويا منممذ عممام ‪ .1987‬خلفمما لسممرائيل ‪ ،‬والردن ‪ ،‬إدارة‬ ‫الرئيس رجورج دبوش لم توقع على مذثكرة تفاهم ثنائية مع مصر‬ ‫على الرغم من أن المساعدات المريكية قد ساعد على تقوية معاهدة سلم التي يعتبرها ثكثيرون نارجحة لمدة ‪ 30‬عامما دبيمن مص ر و اسمرائيل‪ .‬و لك ن لن‬ ‫الوقت قد انقضى ‪ ،‬فإن منتقدي استمرار المساعدات المريكية لمصر أصبحوا أثكثر صخبا في مجمادلين دبمأن الوليمات المتحمدة تسماعد دثكتاتوريمة قمعيمة‪.‬‬ ‫على مدى السنوات الخمس الماضية ‪ ،‬ناقش الكونجرس المساعدات الخاررجية المريكية لمصر هل لدبد أن يكون مشروطة أم ل‪ ،‬و ضمن أمممور أخممرى ‪،‬‬ ‫إدخال تحسينات في مصر لسجل حقوق النسان ‪ ،‬والتقدم في إرساء الديمقراطية والحرية الدينيممة ‪ ،‬ورجهودهمما للسمميطرة علممى الحممدود دبيممن مصممر وغممزة‪.‬‬ ‫دبعض العضاء يعتقدون أن المساعدات المريكية لمصر لم تكن فعالة في تعزيز الصلح السياسي والقتصادي وأن اتفاقات المساعدات الخاررجية يجممب‬ ‫اعادة التفاوض دبشأنها لتشمل المعايير التي يجب أن تفي مصر دبها للعمل على مواصلة الحصول على المساعدات المريكية‪.‬‬

‫‪‬‬

‫المساعدات القتصادية‪ :‬الوليات المتحدة خفضت إلى حد ثكبير المساعدات القتصادية لمصممر علممى‬ ‫مدى العقد الماضي ‪ ،‬ويعتقد ثكثير من المراقبين أن المساعدات القتصادية الميرثكيممة قممد يتممم التخلممص منهمما‬ ‫ثكليا في السنوات المقبلة‪ .‬هناك عدة أسباب للحد من المساعدات الميرثكية‪ .‬عموممما ‪ ،‬المسمماعدات القتصممادية‬ ‫المريكية لمصر قد تتجه نحو النخفاض على مدى ‪ 10‬أعوام نتيجة التفاق الذي تم التوصل إليه في أواخممر‬ ‫تسعينيات القرن الماضى‪ .‬في يناير ‪ ، 1998‬قام مس ؤولون اس رائيليون عمن طريمق التف اوض ممع الوليمات‬ ‫المتحدة دبالتوصل لتفاق يقلل ممن المسماعدات القتصمادية و يزيممد مممن تلممك العسمكرية علمى مممدى فممترة ‪10‬‬ ‫سنوات‪ .‬و طبقت هذه التفاقة على مصر أيضا دون الجزء الخص دبزيادة المساعدات العسممكرية )‪ 60‬مليممون‬ ‫دولر للحد من اسرائيل و ‪ 40‬مليون دولر للحد من مصر ولكن مصر لم تحصل على زيادة في المساعدات‬ ‫العسكرية‪ (.‬ستقوم وزارة الخاررجية المريكية دبطلب اعتماد مبلممغ ‪ 250‬مليممون دولر ثكمسمماعدات اقتصممادية‬ ‫لمصر للعام ‪ 2010‬تستخدم لتحسمين الخمدمات الصمحية و التعليممة و دبراممج التبمادل الطلدبمى و خصخصمة‬ ‫القتصاد و إرساء الديموقراطية فى مصر‪.‬‬

‫‪‬‬

‫المساعدات العسكرية‪ :‬طلبت الدارة ‪ 1.3‬مليار دولر من التمويممل العسممكري الخمماررجي لمصممر فممي‬ ‫‪ ، 2010‬وهي نفس الكمية التي وردت في ‪ .2009‬وفقا لمسؤولين امريكيين ومصممريين فممى وزارة الممدفاع ‪،‬‬ ‫حوالي ‪ ٪ 30‬من التمويمل العسمكري الخماررجي لمصمر ه ي المتي تنفمق عل ى نظمم أس لحة رجديمدة ‪ ،‬لتحمديث‬ ‫المعدات الصرية من العهد السوفييتى لتحل محلها أسلحة أمريكية حديثة‪ .‬على الرغم مممن أنممه ل تورجممد أرقممام‬ ‫يمكن التحقق منها علمى مجمموع النفماق العسمكري المصمري ‪ ،‬فمإنه ممن المقمدر أن المسماعدات العسمكرية‬

‫المريكيممة دبقممدر ممما تغطممي ‪ ٪ 80‬مممن نفقممات وزارة الممدفاع لشممراء السمملحة‪ .‬للمممرة الولممى ‪ ،‬المسمماعدات‬ ‫العسكرية لمصر يمكن أن تستخدم "لبرامج وأنشطة أمن الحدود في سيناء" ‪ ،‬في اشارة الى مبادرات مكافحة‬ ‫التهريب على الحدود دبين مصر وغزة‪.‬‬

‫ما الذى يحمله لمستقبل‪:‬‬ ‫هناك الكثير من القضايا التى ينبغى على أمريكا أن تتخذ قرارا دبشأنها‪ .‬فمصر هى الحليف العردبى الثكبر و الثكثر تأثيرا فى المنطقة‪ ,‬و هى التى دبيممدها أن‬ ‫تساعد أمريكا فى الكثير من القضايا العالقة و استطاعتها أن تعقدها أيضا متى أرادت‪ .‬دبالنسبة لملف حقوق النسان‪ ,‬أمريكا سوف تتبع سيناريو من اثنيممن;‬ ‫الول أن تتبع نهج إدارة دبوش و تقوم دبالضغط على مصر من أرجل المزيد من الصلحات فى ه ذا المجمال و نشمر الديموقراطيمة‪ .‬الثمانى أن تتبمع سياسمة‬ ‫أثكثر دبرغماتية و تعمل على إرضاء مصر على حساب المبادئ السادبق اذثكرهمما مممما يممثير غضممب المنظمممات الحقوقيممة الممتى ل تممترك فرصممة إل و تهممارجم‬ ‫السجل المصرى لحقوق النسان‪ .‬يقودنا هذا لملف آخر أل و هو المساعدات المريكية لمصر‪ ,‬حيث يطالب البعض دبأن تكون هذه المساعدات مشممروطة‪.‬‬ ‫انتهاج مثل هذا النهج سوف يكون له تأثيرات دبالغة الهمية حيث سيحسن العلقات دبين الدولتين دبطريقة ثكبيرة أو سيؤدى إلى تممدهورها دبطريقممة ل تحمممد‬ ‫عقباها‪ .‬فإما ستنصاع الحكومة المصرية لهذه الشروط مما سيؤدى لرساء الديموقراطية فى مصر و يخفف من ضغط الجماعات لحقوقية ثكما أنه سمميظهر‬ ‫مدى التزام أمريكا دبالمبادئ التى تدعو لها‪ .‬لكن مثل هذا السيناريو دبعيد المنال حيث رجردبته إدارة دبوش و فشمملت فشممل اذريعمما‪ .‬الخيممار الخممر هممو أن تقمموم‬ ‫أمريكا دبإدبقا الوضع على ما هو عليه و غض البصر عن النتهاثكات المصرية‪ .‬مثل هذا التممورجه سمينال دبالتأثكيممد رضمما الحكوممة المصمرية لكنمه فممى نفمس‬ ‫الوقت سيؤلب الكثير من منظمات المجتمع المدنى على الدارة المريكية و سيظهر أمريكا دبمظهر المنافق الذى يتخلى عن مبادئه عندما يرى مصلحة فى‬ ‫اذلك‪.‬‬ ‫اتفاقية للتجارة الحرة أيضا هى موضع للنقش‪ ,‬فإدبرام مثل هذه التفاقية من شأنه أن يعزز مكانممة أمريكمما فممى مصممر ثكممما أنمه سمميعزز القتصمماد المصممرى‬ ‫فيجعله معتمدا أثكثر على التجارة مع أمريكا‪ .‬لكن هذا قد يجعل آخين يطالبون دبالمعاملة دبالمثل و قد يفتح دباب لطلبات قد ترفض مما يؤدى إلى تعقيدات فممى‬ ‫علقة أمريكا مع دول لخرى‪ .‬البرنامج النووى المصرى هو أيضا نقطة حساسة لمصر‪ ,‬فهذا البنامج خيار مصمري لحفمظ مماء المورجه ف ى المنطقمة أممام‬ ‫الطموحات النووية اليرانية و الشك المؤثكد الذى يحوم حول المؤسسة النوويى السرائيلية‪ .‬دبرنامجا نوويا مصريا سلميا قد يكون خيارا متاح‪ ,‬حيممث تقمموم‬ ‫أمرثكا دببناءه طبقا للقواعد التى تختار أن تضعها و دبالتالى يكون لها الشراف و المتادبعة عليه‪ .‬لكن فى نفس الوقت فإن مثل هممذا البرنامممج ممن المررجمح أن‬ ‫يثير استيء الكثير من دول الجوار و على رأسها الدولة العبرية‪ .‬ثكما أن مثل هذا البرنامج دائما ممما يمثممل فرصممة التحممول لخممر عسممكرى إاذا ممما رجممد فممى‬ ‫المور أمور‪ .‬أمريكا تقف عند مفترق طرق و سيكون عليها الختيار‪.‬‬

‫العلقات السعودية المريكية‬ ‫تحظى العلقات السعودية المريكية دبأهمية مميزة ضمممن علقممات الوليممات المتحممدة فممي الشممرق الوسممط‪ .‬ولعممدة عقممود ثكممانت‬ ‫السعودية نقطة ارتكاز في السياسات المريكية‪ .‬وااذا ثكانت العلقات السياسية دبيممن البلممدين قممد دبممدأت فممي الثلثينيممات اثممر الحمماح‬ ‫شرثكات النفط المريكية‪ ،‬فإن تلك العلقات تعززت دبممرور الموقت ل سميما فمي فمترة الرئيمس المريكمي دوايمت ايزنهماور فمي‬ ‫الخمسينيات‪ .‬ومنذ تلك الفترة وحتى وقوع احداث الحادي عشر من سبتمبر ‪ 2001‬حممافظت الشممراثكة السممعودية المريكيممة علممى‬ ‫صلدبتها وقد ارجتازت اختبارات عديدة غير انه دبعد احداث الحادي عشر مممن سممبتمبر دبممدا واضممحا ان تلممك الشممراثكة دبممدأت تنفممك‬ ‫تدريجيا‪ ،‬و المر ليعود الى مشارثكة عدد من السعوديين في تنفيذ هجمممات الحمادي عشمر مممن سممبتمبر‪ ،‬وانممما لمه صملة مباشمرة‬ ‫دبالتغيرات الدولية السادبقة على تلك الحداث واللحقة لها‪.‬‬ ‫في يناير عام ‪ 1956‬ثكتب رئيس الوزراء البريطاني انتوني ايدن رسالة إلى الرئيس المريكي دوايت ايزنهاور يشتكي فيهمما مممن‬ ‫»الدور السعودي« في الشرق الوسط‪ .‬وتحدث ايدن عن »الموال السعودية« قائل ان تلك الموال »تممدعم صممحفا فممي سمموريا‬ ‫والردن ولبنان« وان دبعض تلك الصحف »يسارية دبشدة وشيوعية او قريبة من الشميوعية« ثمم أشمار ايمدن المى رجهمود سمعودية‬ ‫مصرية سورية لفك ارتباط الردن دببريطانيا من خلل تقديم دعم مالي دبالتعاون مع التحاد السوفياتي‪ .‬وختممم ايممدن مشممددا علممى‬ ‫أهمية »ايجاد ضوادبط لستخدام الموال السعودية‪ ،‬ومنع السعوديين من اللعب على الورقة الروسية‪.‬‬ ‫وردا على رسالة ايدن تم اعداد خطاب من ايزنهاور تشير مسودته الى »ادراك الوليات المتحدة للمشممكلة« وانممه »مممن الحيمموي‬ ‫تقوية النفواذ الغردبي في السعودية ااذا ثكنا نريد النجاح في اقناع السعوديين دباستخدام اموالهم لغراض افضل«‪ ،‬غير ان الخطمماب‬ ‫لم يرسل‪.‬‬ ‫ثكانت الوليات المتحدة تسعى لتثبيت أقدامها في الشرق الوسط عبر دبوادبة السعودية‪ ،‬حيممث ثكممانت العلقممة السممعودية المريكيممة‬ ‫تتعزز منذ دبدأت ايام الملك عبدالعزيز‪ .‬وفيما تحاول دبريطانيا اقناع الوليات المتحدة دبأهمية »اتباع سياسة متشددة« تجاه المملكة‬ ‫فانها ثكانت تصف النظام السعودي دبانه »فاسد ومتخلف ومعاد للغرب« ‪ .‬لم تكن الوليات المتحدة ترى ضرورة للمنهج المتشممدد‬ ‫حيال السممعودية‪ ،‬وقممد عممبر عممن اذلممك الممرأي مسمماعد وزيممر الخاررجيممة لشممؤون الشمرق الدنممى حيمث أورد فممي مممذثكرة مؤرخممة‬ ‫‪» 17/1/1956‬ان البريطانيين غير قادرين على استيعاب ان وضعهم في الخليج يتضمن صيغة امبريالية‪ ،‬وهمم يكمررون القمول‬ ‫ان نصائحهم ودعمهم لشيوخ الخليج وسلطان مسقط مرغوب فيه من قبل هؤلء« واذثكر انه أوضممح للددبلوماسممي البريطمماني »ان‬ ‫القوميين العرب يعتبرون الورجود البريطاني في الخليممج والردن ورجممودا امبرياليمما« مضمميفا »ان علينمما ان نمموارجه حقممائق الحيمماة‬ ‫والقرار دبأننا لسنا في القرن التاسع عشر‪ .‬دبالطبع لم تأخذ الوليممات المتحممدة هممذا الموقممف الممذي يبممدو الن »عقلنيمما« مممن دبمماب‬ ‫انصاف السعودية ول ممارسة لدور الحكيم دبقدر ما ثكانت مصالحها في الخليج ومخاوفهمما مممن نجماح الشمميوعية فمي التغلغممل فمي‬ ‫الشرق الوسط تفرض عليها التقارب مع السممعودية‪ ،‬لقممد صمماغت تلممك المصممالح والمخمماوف المرتبطممة دبممالنفط رجانبمما مهممما مممن‬ ‫المبادىء الرئيسية التي قامت عليها السياسة المريكية في الشرق الوسط منذ عام ‪ 1957‬وحتى سممقوط التحمماد السمموفياتي عممام‬ ‫‪ . 1991‬ثكما ان مصالح ومخاوف السعودية ايضا دفعتها الى تعزيز علقتها دبالوليات المتحدة‪ ..‬لقد ثكانت السممعودية تتنممازع مممع‬ ‫دبريطانيا للسيطرة على واحة البريمي‪ ،‬ثكما ثكانت تسعى للحصول على وضع أفضل في مفاوضاتها مممع الوليممات المتحممدة دبشممأن‬ ‫قاعدة الظهران‪ ،‬وتريد دبالطبع ادبعاد شبح الشيوعية عن شبه الجزيرة‪ ،‬ثكما ثكانت تحاول منع امتداد القومية العردبية‪ ،‬وتريممد ايضمما‬ ‫تطوير الخدمات الساسية لمواطنيها وضمان عائد مناسب لبيع النفط‪.‬‬

‫البدايممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممة‬ ‫لقد دبدأت العلقات السعودية المريكية قبل تلك الفترة حين طلبت شرثكات النفممط المريكيممة العاملممة فممي السممعودية مممن واشممنطن‬ ‫ممارسة دور أثكبر لضمان المن والستقرار السياسممي فممي الخليممج وهممو مما دفممع الرئيممس المريكممي روزفلمت عممام ‪ 1943‬الممى‬ ‫العلن دبان الدفاع عن المملكة يمثل مصلحة حيوية للوليات المتحدة ثم قام دبارسال اول دبعثمة عسمكرية أمريكيمة المى السمعودية‬ ‫والتقى في عام ‪ 1945‬دبالملك عبممدالعزيز علممى ظهمر دبمماخرة فممي قنمماة السممويس وهمو اللقمماء الممذي »دشممن« العلقممات المريكيممة‬ ‫السعودية‪ ،‬ومهما تكن أهمية مرحلة »التأسيس« في تلك العلقات فإن الستراتيجية التي اعلنها الرئيس ايزنهمماور فممي ينمماير مممن‬ ‫عام ‪ 1957‬شكلت دبداية »الشراثكة السياسية« دبين السعودية والوليات المتحدة‪ ،‬وهي الشراثكة الممتي يبممدو انهمما دبممدأت تنفممك الن!‬ ‫قبيل خروج دبريطانيا من الشرق الوسط‪ ،‬ومع تعاظم المد الشيوعي واثكتشاف المزيد من حقمول النفممط فممي الخليممج‪ ،‬وقيمام ثممورة‬ ‫يوليو ‪ 1952‬في مصر وظهور حرثكة القوميين العرب‪ ،‬ثكان لزاما على الوليات المتحدة ان تحدد سياستها تجاه الشرق الوسط‪،‬‬ ‫فأصدر الرئيس ايزنهاور في ينماير عمام ‪ 1957‬مما ع رف دبمم ‪ Eisenhower Doctrine‬اي دبرنام ج ايزنه اور وه و يتض من‬ ‫المبادىء الرئيسية التي تقوم عليها سياسة الوليمات المتحمدة فممي الشمرق الوسممط‪ ،‬وقمال ايزنهماور فمي وثيقتمه الممتي قمدمها المى‬ ‫الكونغرس‪» :‬ان الشرق الوسط يمر دبمرحلة رجديدة حررجة في تاريخه الهام الطويل« ثم تحممدث عممن الخطممر الشمميوعي واطممماع‬ ‫التحاد السوفيتي في الشرق الوسط‪ ،‬واضاف ان المم الحرة في الشرق الوسط تحتاج وتريد قوة مضاعفة لصمميانة اسممتقللها‪.‬‬ ‫وحدد ايزنهاور العناصر الرئيسية التي تقوم عليها وثيقته ومن دبينهمما‪ :‬مسمماعدة ومعاونممة اي دولممة او مجموعممة دول فممي الشممرق‬

‫الوسط لتطوير القتصاد‪ ..‬اطلق دبرامج المساعدات العسمكرية‪ ..‬ارس ال قموات امريكيمة لحمايمة حمدود واسمتقلل دول الشمرق‬ ‫الوسط التي تطلب المساعدة‪ .‬لقد ثكانت »الحرب ضد الشيوعية وتأمين تدفق النفط« عصب السياسة المريكية حتى عام ‪.1991‬‬ ‫ونظرا لموقع السعودية واهميتها السياسية في الخليج ونظرا لضخامة انتارجها ومخزونها النفطي‪ ..‬فإنها الشريك الذي ل دبد منه‪.‬‬

‫أهمية استراتيجية‪:‬‬ ‫لقد تعاقبت الدارات المريكية وتولى رئاسة الوليات المتحدة رؤساء من الحزب الجمهوري وآخممرون مممن الحممزب ولممم تتغيممر‬ ‫المبادىء الرئيسية للسياسة المريكية في الشرق الوسط واستمرت الشراثكة السعودية المريكية وهممي تجتمماز اختبممارات صممعبة‬ ‫اقليمية ودولية مثل حردبي ‪ 1967‬و ‪ 1973‬وتداعياتهما ثكما تعززت تلك الشراثكة في موارجهة مهام وحروب اخرى مثل موارجهممة‬ ‫الحتلل السوفيتي لفغانستان ورجهود طرده منها التي استخدم فيها الطرفان اسمامة دبمن لدن‪ ،‬والحمرب العراقيممة اليرانيممة المتي‬ ‫دعم خللها الطرفان صدام حسين‪ ،‬وحمرب تحريممر الكممويت‪ ..‬ثكمما وارجهمت الشمراثكة السمعودية المريكيمة ثكمل مراحممل القضممية‬ ‫الفلسطينية‪ ،‬ورغم تباعد مواقفهما ال ان النحياز المريكي لسرائيل والحماس السعودي للفلسطينيين لم يتسبب في فك الشراثكة‪.‬‬ ‫ويعتقد دبعض المحللين ان احداث الحادي عشر من سبتمبر ‪ 2001‬ونتائجه ا همي المس ؤولة عمن الرتبماك الح الي ف ي العلقمات‬ ‫السعودية المريكية‪ ،‬وان تبعات تلك الحداث سوف تقود الى اعلن نهاية شراثكة سياسية امتدت لمما يقمارب سمبعين عاممما‪ .‬فهمل‬ ‫هذا صحيح؟ هل للمر علقة »دبالموال السعودية« التي اشتكت منها دبريطانيا عام ‪ 1956‬ولم تتجاوب معها الوليممات المتحممدة؟‬ ‫ام ان المسألة تعود الى النظام السعودي »الفاسد المتخلف المعادي للغرب« ثكما ثكممان يصممفه النجليممز فممي الخمسممينيات فتحممالفت‬ ‫معه الوليات المتحدة؟ وهل المطلموب اتبماع سياسمة امريكيمة »متشمددة« تج اه السمعودية وهمو مما طلبتمه دبريطانيما عمام ‪1956‬‬ ‫ورفضته الوليات المتحدة من دباب »موارجهة حقائق الحياة«؟‬

‫موارجهة الحقائق‪:‬‬ ‫ثكان الرئيس ايزنهاور قد صمم دبرنامجه لموارجهة الخطر الشيوعي وهو دبرنامج يعتمد على استباق الحممداث و سممعى الممى تممأمين‬ ‫السمممممميطرة المريكيممممممة مممممممن خلل ارسممممممال قمممممموات الممممممى الشممممممرق الوسممممممط واقامممممممة قواعممممممد عسممممممكرية‪.‬‬ ‫ان المهم لدى الوليات المتحمدة همو تعماون تلمك النظممة معهما ف ي موارجهمة الشميوعية وتمأمين مصمالحها النفطيمة‪ .‬ولقمد ثكمانت‬ ‫السعودية نقطة ارتكاز مهمة في السياسة المريكية في الشرق الوسط فهي دولة معادية للتحاد السموفياتي وغنيمة دبمالنفط وتقمدم‬ ‫تسهيلت عسكرية للوليات المتحدة‪ .‬ولم يتغير المر ثكثيرا دبعد تولى ثكنيدي رئاسة الوليات المتحممدة عممام ‪ 1960‬فقممد عمممل هممو‬ ‫ورجونسون ضمن الطار نفسه‪ ،‬غير انه في نهاية الستينات وطوال السبعينات ثكممان للحممداث الدوليممة والقليميممة اثممر ثكممبير علممى‬ ‫سياسة الوليات المتحدة في الخليج‪ ،‬وثكانت تلك الحداث تعزز دور السعودية تارة وتخفضممه تممارة اخممرى‪ .‬ففممي ينمماير مممن عممام‬ ‫‪ 1968‬اعلن رئيس الوزراء البريطاني هارولد ولسن اعتزام دبريطانيا النسحاب من الخليج دبحلول نهاية عام ‪ 1971‬ولذلك ثكممان‬ ‫لدبد للوليات المتحدة ان تعيد صياغة سياساتها في الش رق الوسمط خاص ة ان هنماك تخوف ا ممن قيمام التحماد الس وفياتي دبملمء‬ ‫الفراغ الذي تخلفه مغادرة النجليز‪ .‬ومع استمرار ثبات اهداف السياسة المريكية في الشرق الوسط المتمثلة فممي ضمممان تممدفق‬ ‫النفط ومنع وصول الروس الى الخليج‪ ،‬اعدت ادارة الرئيس المريكي نيكسون استراتيجية تقوم على اساس دعم عسممكري قمموي‬ ‫ليران والسعودية في نفس الوقت‪ ،‬ويعود سبب هذا الدعم الى ان نتائج التدخل العسممكري المريكممي فمي فيتنمام لمم تكمن مشمجعة‬ ‫للتدخل في منطقة اخرى ولم يكممن الممرأي العممام المريكممي يقبممل دبتممدخل رجديممد لممذلك رأت ادارة نيكسممون ضممرورة تأهيممل ايممران‬ ‫والسعودية عسكريا للقيام دبمهام الدفاع عن الخليج حال ظهور الحارجة مع استعداد الوليات المتحممدة لتقممديم اسممناد دبحمري ورجمموي‬ ‫وتقليص مشارثكة القوات البرية ‪ ،‬وقد عرفت هذه السياسة دبم ‪ .Twin pillar‬ولقد ثكانت ايران ف ي اذل ك ال وقت تحظ ى دبافض لية‬ ‫على السعودية‪ .‬ولقد ثكانت الوليات المتحدة ترغب في رؤيمة نتائمج دممج المموال السمعودية دبمالقوة العسمكرية اليرانيمة‪ .‬ورغ م‬ ‫نشوب حرب اثكتودبر ‪ 1973‬وقطع امدادات النفط من الخليج فان الهمية الستراتيجية للسعودية لم تتأثر دبمل انهما اصمبحت اثكمثر‬ ‫اهمية‪.‬‬

‫سقوط الشاه‪:‬‬ ‫ومنذ عام ‪ 1979‬دفعت الحداث العلقات السعودية المريكية الى المزيد من الرتباط ففي اذلك العام سممقط شمماه ايممران فخسممرت‬ ‫الوليات المتحدة حليفا مهما‪ ،‬ورجاء الخميني مع شعار تصدير الثورة السلمية‪ ،‬ثكما نشبت حممرب محممدودة دبيممن اليمممن الجنممودبي‬ ‫الموالي للتحاد السوفياتي واليمن الشمالي المقرب من السعودية والوليات المتحدة‪ ،‬ثكما قام الروس دبغزو افغانستان‪ ،‬ثم في عممام‬ ‫‪ 1980‬دبدأت الحرب العراقية اليرانية‪ .‬ثكان الرئيس ثكارتر قد اعد استراتيجية رجديدة في السنة الخيممرة لرئاسممته فمي ضمموء تلممك‬ ‫المتغيرات وقد عززت تلك الستراتيجية دور السعودية‪ .‬فقد رأت ادارة الرئيممس ثكممارتر ضممرورة السممتعداد لحتمممالت التممدخل‬ ‫العسكري المباشر في الخليج فتم انشاء قوات التدخل السريع لموارجهة اي نزاع عسكري طارىء وتم ارسال طائرات »اواثكممس«‬ ‫الى السعودية‪ .‬وحين تسلم الرئيس ريغان رئاسة الوليات المتحدة عام ‪ 1980‬ومع الحتلل السوفييتي لفغانستان اصبح الخطممر‬ ‫السوفياتي هو الشغل الشاغل للدارة المريكية وسعت تلك الدارة الى تحفيممز دول الخليممج للتحممالف معهمما فممي موارجهممة التحمماد‬

‫السوفياتي‪ ،‬ولقد اصبحت السعودية في هذه الفترة نقطممة ارتكمماز مهمممة لتنفيممذ السياسممة المريكيممة فممي الخليممج فممازدادت مبيعممات‬ ‫السلح والمساعدة العسكرية والتمرينات المشممترثكة‪ .‬ومممع اسممتمرار الحممرب العراقيممة اليرانيممة ودبممدء »حممرب النمماقلت« ازداد‬ ‫التعاون المريكي السممعودي الممداعم للعممراق وقممد ثكممانت اسممتراتيجية الممدعم تقموم علممى عممدم السممماح لي مممن الطرفيممن دبتحقيممق‬ ‫النتصار‪ ،‬فيما ثكان التعاون السعودي المريكي في افغانستان يستهدف حتما طرد الروس‪.‬‬

‫اختبار الكويت‬ ‫دبعد انتهاء الحرب العراقية اليرانية وانحسار الخطر السوفياتي وارجهت العلقات السممعودية المريكيممة اختبممارا ثكممبيرا تمثممل فممي‬ ‫الغزو العراقي للكويت في اغسطس عام ‪ 1990‬وقد تعززت الشراثكة دبين البلممدين فممي حمرب تحريممر الكممويت فممي عهممد الرئيممس‬ ‫رجورج دبوش واستقبلت السممعودية ‪ 400000‬رجنممدي امريكممي‪ ،‬ومممن اراضمميها انطلقممت حممرب التحريممر‪ .‬غيممر ان ورجممود القمموات‬ ‫المريكية في السعودية تسبب في انكشاف الوضاع الداخلية في المملكة على وسممائل العلم المريكيممة‪ .‬ورغممم انهيممار التحماد‬ ‫السوفياتي عام ‪ 1991‬لم تفقد السعودية اهميتها في عهد الرئيس ثكلينتون ‪-‬وهو أول رئيس امريكممي دبعممد انتهمماء الحممرب البمماردة‪-‬‬ ‫اذلك ان السياسة التي تبنتها ادارة ثكلينتون في الخليج تتطلب دعما هائل من »الصدقاء« فممي المنطقممة‪ .‬لقممد اعتمممد ثكلينتممون علممى‬ ‫سياسة »الحتواءالمزدوج« ليران والعراق وثكذلك العقودبات القتصادية‪ ،‬وثكي تنجح مثل هممذه السياسممة لدبممد مممن ورجممود قمموات‬ ‫عسكرية قريبة تحقمق عنصممر المردع ولدبممد ايضما مممن تعمماون الممدول المحيطممة دبممايران والعممراق لنجمماح العقودبممات القتصممادية‪.‬‬ ‫ورغم قيام تنظيم القاعدة التادبع لسامة دبن لدن دبعمليات تفجير سفارتين امريكيتين فممي ثكينيمما وتنزانيمما والممرد المريكممي دبقصممف‬ ‫معسكرات القاعدة في السودان وافغانستان ال ان العلقات المريكية السعودية لم تتأثر الى ان وقعت احممداث الحمادي عشمر ممن‬ ‫سمممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممممبتمبر‪.2001.‬‬

‫استراتيجية دبوش‬ ‫لم تكن سياسات الرئيس دبوش تجاه الشممرق الوسممط واضممحة دبعممد أن وقعممت احممداث الحممادي عشممر مممن سممبتمبر‪ ،‬فقممد‬ ‫صاغت تلك الحداث سياسات الرئيس دبوش الدبن تجاه المنطقة‪ .‬ولعله من الجدير ملحظممة ان عوامممل نفسممية تحكمممت الممى حممد‬ ‫دبعيد في صياغة تلك السياسات فالهجمات اصادبت الكبرياء المريكي في مقتل‪ .‬ورغم ان الرد المريكي على تلممك الهجمممات دبممدا‬ ‫سريعا عبر حرب أفغانستان‪ ،‬ال ان الرد الحقيقي والهم تجسد في استراتيجية الرئيس دبوش التي أعلنها في سبتمبر عام ‪،2002‬‬ ‫ان فهم تلك الستراتيجية والفكار التي تستند إليها هو أفضل وسيلة لفهم مصدر الخلل الحالي في العلقات المريكية السعودية‪.‬‬ ‫تنطلق استراتيجية الرئيس دبوش من حقيقة فرضتها أحداث الحادي عشر من سبتمبر وهي أن »أمن« الوليات المتحدة‬ ‫وليس »مصالحها« فقط يأتي من الشرق الوسط‪ ،‬أو ثكما قال مسماعد وزيممر الخاررجيممة المريكممي لشممؤون الشممرق الدنممى وليممام‬ ‫دبيرنز »في الشرق الوسط يعيش أقرب الصدقاء لنا‪ ،‬ويورجد ثلثا احتياط النفط العمالمي‪ .‬ومنمه رج اء اره ادبيو الحمادي عش ر ممن‬ ‫سبتمبر«‪ ...‬وتسعى الستراتيجية إلى ضمان أمن الوليات المتحدة الداخلي عبر تجفيف منادبع الخطر فيما وراء البحممار‪ ،‬وتعتممبر‬ ‫الستراتيجية الرهاب الدولي العدو الول الذي حل محل الخطر الشيوعي‪ .‬دبل انها تعتبر الرهاب الدولي أثكثر خطرا‪ ،‬فأحممداث‬ ‫الفوضى واللم في الوليات المتحدة ل يحتاج ثكما تقول الستراتيجية أثكثر من »شبكات مسمتترة ممن الف راد‪ ...‬ودبثممن يقمل عمن‬ ‫ثمن شراء ددبادبة واحدة« وإاذ تشرع الستراتيجية في دبيان عناصر »القوة المريكية« المتوفرة في الترسانة العسكرية فإنها تحذر‬ ‫الدول التي تساند الرهاب وتقول‪» :‬سوف تحاسب الوليات المتحدة الدول التي تتورط في الرهاب من ضمنها تلممك الممتي تمنممح‬ ‫ملاذاا آمن اا للرهادبيين لن حلفاء الرهاب هم أعداء الحضارة« ‪ ،‬وتذهب إلى حد اعلن أن الوليات المتحدة سوف تشن »حممرب‬ ‫أفكار لكسب المعرثكة ضد الرهاب الدولي« وإنها سوف تدعم الحكومات المعتدلة والعصرية في العممالم السمملمي »لنضمممن ألل‬ ‫توفر الظمروف والعقائمد المتي يرورجهما الرهمادبيون أرض اا خصمبة ف ي أي دولمة«‪ .‬ودباختص ار شمديد يمكممن القمول إن الدارات‬ ‫المريكية المتعاقبة وحتى سقوط التحاد السوفييتي لم تكن معنية ثكثير اا دبالشؤون الداخلية للدول الحليفة لها طالما أن علقاتها مممع‬ ‫النظمة الحاثكمة »مريحة« وطالما ثكانت تلك النظمة »تراعي« المصالح المريكية‪ .‬وثكثيرا ما ثكممانت الدارة المريكيممة تغممض‬ ‫النظر عن تجاوزات تلك النظمة في مجال حقوق النسان دبل إنها ثكانت تحث تلك النظمة م دبحجة مكافحة الشيوعية م على قمممع‬ ‫الحرثكات الشعبية التي تطالب دبالنفتاح السياسي‪ ...‬لقد ثكان ضمممان تممدفق المصممالح المريكيممة يتطلممب دعممم النظمممة المناهضممة‬ ‫للتحاد السوفييتي‪ ...‬أما دبعد أحداث الحادي عشر من سبتمبر فقد أصبح ضمان »أمن ومصالح« الوليات المتحدة يتطلب فممرض‬ ‫القيم المريكية حتى أن الكويت التي حررتها الوليات المتحدة مممن قمموات صممدام حسممين عممام ‪ 1991‬لممم تتعممرض فممي السممنوات‬ ‫العشر اللحقة إلى ضغط أمريكي لتعديل سياستها الداخلية دبقدر ما تعرضت له دبعد الحادي عشر من سبتمبر‪.‬‬

‫قيم ومصالح‬

‫في ‪ 8‬نوفمبر ‪ 2002‬ألقى مساعد وزير الخاررجية المريكممي لشممؤون الشممرق الدنممى وليممام دبيرنممز خطادبمما ا قممال فيممه إن »الحقيقممة‬ ‫المجردة هي أن الشرق الوسط الغارق في مستنقع النزاعات الداخلية يشممكل تهديممداا للشممعب المريكممي«‪ .‬ولعلممه مممن المهممم رجممداا‬ ‫التمعن في محتويات خطاب آخر ألقاه وليم دبيرنز في مايو ‪ 2003‬شمارحا ا رجانبمماا مممن أرجنممدة العمممل المريكيممة طبقما ا لسممتراتيجية‬

‫الرئيس دبوش‪ .‬لقد حدد دبيرنز في خطادبه المهم نقاط اذات أهمية خاصة في السياسة المريكية تجاه الشرق الوسط‪ ،‬أهمها‪ :‬اعطاء‬ ‫»تحدي تحقيق انفتاح النظمة السياسية في المنطقة أولوية« ويضيف أن تحقيق النفتاح السياسي »ليس مجرد مسألة قيم أمريكية‬ ‫أو ضمان حقوق النسان الساسية‪ ...‬إنه أيض اا مسألة مصالح أمريكية واقعية« ثم يؤثكممد دبعممد اذلممك أن الشمرق الوسمط »ل يتمتممع‬ ‫دبأي حصانة من هذه الحقيقة تميزه عن أي رجزء آخر في العالم« وان دبعض النظمة العردبية ستجد صعودبة في التغيير وهمذه همي‬ ‫النظمة التي يررجح انضمامها أثكثر من غيرها إلى صفوف الدول الفاشلة حول العالم« ثم يشير دبيرنز إلى أن الرئيس دبوش يعتقد‬ ‫انه »من مصلحتنا رجداا في المد الطويل أن ندعم التغيير الديموقراطي« مؤثكداا أن هذا التغيير ليس »مجممرد تغيممرات سممطحية أو‬ ‫تجميليمممممممممة أو تغيمممممممممرات يتمممممممممم تأرجيلهممممممممما دبشمممممممممكل مسمممممممممتمر‪ ...‬دبمممممممممل همممممممممي تغيمممممممممر حقيقمممممممممي«‪.‬‬ ‫إدارة الرئيس دبوش ترى أن الخطممر الرئيسممي علممى أمممن ومصممالح الوليممات المتحممدة هممو »الرهمماب الممدولي« او دبعبممارة أثكممثر‬ ‫صراحة هو »الرهاب السلمي« لذلك فهي عازمة على تغيير البيئة التي تعتقد أن هذا الرهاب يزدهر فيها‪.‬‬ ‫إن الخلل القائم حاليا في العلقات السعودية المريكية هو نتاج تغير المعممادلت السياسممية الدوليممة والقليميممة تغيممرا رجممذريا‪ ..‬فقممد‬ ‫سقط التحاد السمموفييتي وزال خطممر الشمميوعية‪ ،‬وانممدثر القوميممون العممرب‪ ،‬ودبممرزت الجماعممات السمملمية‪ ،‬وزال نظممام صممدام‬ ‫حسين‪ ،‬وايران تحت الحتواء المريكي‪ .‬والعراق ونفطه تحت الحتلل المريكي‪ ،‬فيممما يتنممامى خطممر »الرهمماب السمملمي«‬ ‫الذي وصل الراضي المريكية‪ .‬ووسط هذه المتغيرات الجذرية لم تعد السعودية رثكيزة أساسية مممن رثكممائز السياسممة المريكيممة‬ ‫في الشرق الوسط دبقدر ما هي ساحة تغيير‪ .‬لقد انخفضت القيمة الستراتيجية للممدور السياسممي السممعودي وإن اسممتمر النفممط فممي‬ ‫الحفاظ على أهميته غير أنه فقد قيمته م وسط هذه المتغيرات م ثكأداة سياسممية مممؤثرة فممي العلقممات المريكيممة السممعودية‪ ،‬ويمكممن‬ ‫للنفط العراقي أن يحد ثكثيرا من أي »استخدام سياسي« للنفط السممعودي لقممد تغيممرت المعممادلت ويجممري الن صممياغة معممادلت‬ ‫دبديلة‪.‬‬

‫إعادة صياغة‬ ‫إن السعودية في وضممع ل تحسممد عليممه إطلقما‪ ،‬وتحتماج المملكمة إلمى إعمادة صمياغة سياسماتها الداخليممة والخاررجيمة للتممأقلم مممع‬ ‫المتغيرات الدولية والقليمية‪ .‬والسؤال الذي يطرح نفسه هو مااذا تملك المملكة من أدوات التغيير؟ على المستوى الداخلي »فأهل‬ ‫مكة أدرى دبشعادبها« لكن المؤثكد هو أن المسافة الفاصلة دبين الشأن الداخلي والشأن الخاررجي تقلصممت ثكممثيرا وأعتقممد أن صممياغة‬ ‫سعودية رسمية وشمعبية لمشمروع تطموير سياسمي حقيق ي فمي المملكمة أفضمل دبكمثير ممن الثكتف اء دبمقاوممة مش روع الصملح‬ ‫المريكي دون تقديم دبديل‪ ،‬فلن يكون في مقدور السلطات السعودية موارجهة الضمغط المريكمي دون مشمارثكة فاعلمة تلقائيمة ممن‬ ‫الشعب السعودي اذاته‪.‬‬ ‫أما على الصعيد الخاررجي فليس دبامكان السعودية إحياء الشيوعية فزيارة المير عبدا دبن عبدالعزيز ولي العهممد السممعودي إلممى‬ ‫موسكو مؤخرا والزخم الذي صاحب تلك الزيارة‪ ،‬وحارجة روسيا إلى »الموال السعودية« لن يكفي لعودة الحممرب البمماردة الممتي‬ ‫تؤدي إلى استعادة المملكة أهميتها الستراتيجية السادبقة حتى لو انضمت روسيا إلى منظمة المؤتمر السمملمي‪ .‬ول يمكممن إعممادة‬ ‫عبدالناصر إلى حكم مصر ول يكفي عرقلة العتراف العردبي دبمجلس الحكم العراقي لرجبار الوليات المتحدة على الترارجع عممن‬ ‫سياساتها تجاه الشرق الوسط‪ .‬إن الوراق المتاحة أمام السعودية لموازنة علقاتها مع الوليمات المتحممدة غيمر ممؤثرة فالنظممة‬ ‫العردبية رجميعها ودبل استثناء تتسادبق لدرء الغضب المريكي‪ ،‬ودول الخليج التي ثكانت تتبع المملكة أصبحت تجتهد في »التممماس‬ ‫العذر من الشقيقة الكبرى« دبعد أن ثكسرت قطر الحارجز النفسي في استقللية القرار‪ ،‬ثكما أن التيممار الشممعبي العردبممي القمموى فممي‬ ‫معاداته للوليات المتحدة هو التيار السلمي لكن المملكة تدرك أنه من الخطورة دبمكان استمرار دعم هذا التيار واسممتخدامه فممي‬ ‫هذه الفترة دبالذات ثكما فعلت مع القوميين العرب‪ ،‬فهذا التيار ليس تنظيريا ويصعب التحكم فيه‪ .‬وهكذا فليممس امممام المملكممة سمموى‬ ‫مكانين للتحرك والمناورة دبعيدا عن شؤونها الداخلية‪ ..‬العراق وواشنطن »فالموال السعودية« يمكن أن تلعب دورا مهما هناك!‬ ‫وهناك ‪ 3‬أنواع من التخوف قد تم رصدها عبر هذه "الجولة البحثية" التي تتلخص فيما يلي‪:‬‬ ‫‪ (1‬التخوف من الحرثكات الراديكالية السعودية اذات النتماء السلمي التي دبدأ خطرها يزداد منذ نهاية حرب الخليممج الثانيممة‬ ‫في عام ‪.1991‬‬ ‫‪ (2‬التخوف من "الطريقة السعودية" التي دبدأت في الظهور على السطح دبعد أحداث سبتمبر‪ ،‬ثم دبدأت في النضوج مؤخرا‪.‬‬ ‫‪ (3‬التخوف من التجاه النووي السعودي‪ ،‬خاصة إاذا تم "الطلق" دبين النظامين دبعد تدهور العلقات مؤخرا‪.‬‬

‫إسلميو السعودية‪ ..‬الرق‬ ‫"لقد ثك انت نهايمة ح رب الخليمج الثانيمة فمي فمبراير ‪ 1991‬إيمذانا دبإثقمال المملكمة السمعودية دبأزم ات ارجتماعيمة وهمموم‬ ‫اقتصادية‪ ،‬أدت دبدورها إلى صعود التيار الراديكالي السلمي وانتعاشه من رجديد؛ المر الذي فرض على الحكومة السممعودية‬ ‫الوقوع في فخ التحدي‪ ،‬دبعد أن ثكانت مثل للدولة السلمية في المزج دبين القديم والحديث"‪..‬‬

‫واختلفا عن معظم الزعماء السممنيين الراديكمماليين الصمموليين ‪-‬والكلم لممم"تايتممل دبمماوم"‪ -‬فممإن الزعممماء "الممدينيين" فممي‬ ‫السعودية ليسوا دبشرا عاديين‪ ،‬وإنما علماء قاموا دبالتضجر ضد النظام السعودي الذي ثكان سببا في نشأتهم‪ .‬وهي رجماعات مممن‬ ‫العلماء دبدون قائد معروف ظهرت في الخمسينيات والستينيات من القرن العشرين؛ واشتد عودها في الثمانينيممات والتسممعينيات‬ ‫للسباب التية‪:‬‬ ‫‪ (1‬ظهور رجيل رجديد من القادة الشباب الذين ترعرعوا في الجامعات السلمية السعودية‪.‬‬ ‫‪ (2‬هبوط أسعار البترول ولجوء السعودية إلى قطع مشاريع ثكثيرة من الدعم عن المواطنين‪.‬‬ ‫‪ (3‬ازدياد الضيق حيال توارجد الجنود المريكيين في السعودية ومنطقة الخليج‪.‬‬ ‫وقد قامت المملكة السعودية دبعدة محاولت لحتواء هؤلء العلممماء‪ :‬ففممي عممام ‪ 1927‬قممامت أول حرثكممة احتجارجيممة مممن‬ ‫رجانب العلماء تجاه العائلة المالكة التي انتهت دبقيام ادبن سعود دباحتواء العلماء تحت مظلة الحكوممة الحديثمة الناشمئة‪ .‬وفمي عمام‬ ‫‪ 1971‬أنشأ الملك فيصل دبن عبد العزيز "مجلس هيئة ثكبار العلماء" تحت رئاسة عالم الدولة عبد العزيز دبن دباز‪ .‬وفي نوفمممبر‬ ‫‪ 1979‬لجأت المملكة إلى مؤسسة العلماء لصدار فتمموى لطممرد إحممدى الجماعممات الدينيممة المعارضممة مممن الحممرم المكممي دبعممد‬ ‫احتللها إياه‪ .‬وقد تم فعل إصدار الفتوى‪ ،‬ولكن دبدون إدانة هذه الجماعة؛ مما يممدلل علممى حقيقممة مهمممة‪ :‬وهممي أن العلقممة دبيممن‬ ‫)‪(1‬‬ ‫مؤسسة "العلماء المعينين" و"العلماء الراديكاليين" لم تكن سيئة؛ فكل منهما يتبنى نفس الراء‪ ،‬ولديه نفس الخبرة العلمية‪.‬‬

‫"الطريقة السعودية"‪ ..‬مصدر ضيق‬ ‫لقد تغيرت السياسة السعودية تجاه الوليات المتحدة منذ أحممداث ‪ 11‬سممبتمبر؛ فممآثرت الدبتعمماد عممن واشممنطن فممي سممبيل‬ ‫توثيق علقتها دبالجمهور السعودي‪ .‬وينتقد ‪ Simon Henderson‬تلك "الطريق ة الس عودية" “‪ ”The Saudi Way‬قمائل‪:‬‬ ‫"من الظاهر أن السعودية تتجه حالياا صوب إيران الصولية من خلل إدبعاد نفسمها عممداا عمن الرجمانب‪ ،‬وتحولهما إل ى عمائق‬ ‫للوليات المتحدة‪ ،‬دبدل من أن تكون مساعد اا لها‪ .‬فالعائلة المالكة ترى أنها دبانتهاج اذلك السمملوك ستسممتمر فممي الحكممم؛ ومممن ثممم‬ ‫فهي ل تهتم دبالتحول إلى رجمهورية‪ ،‬ثكما يروق لواشنطن‪ .‬ودبالنسبة للخيرة سيظل العتقاد سمائدا دبممأن المملكممة تمممول السمملم‬ ‫الراديكالي؛ من "حماس" إلى الجماعات "المتطرفة" الخرى عبر العالم السلمي‪ .‬إن المعيار الحقيقي أضحى هممو قيمماس ممما‬ ‫)‪(2‬‬ ‫هو الصلح دبالنسبة للمملكة‪ ،‬حتى لو ثكان يضجر الوليات المتحدة‪ ..‬إنها "الطريقة السعودية"‪.‬‬

‫التجاه النووي‪ ..‬الهلع الثكبر‬ ‫وأخيرا‪ ..‬نصل في نهاية المطاف إلى الهلع الثكبر الذي يتمثل في إثارة التساؤل التممي‪" :‬هممل سممتتجه المملكممة السممعودية‬ ‫نحو التسلح النووي؟" والسبب في إثارة هذا التساؤل الخطير يررجممع إلممى تممدهور العلقممات دبيممن المملكممة السممعودية والوليممات‬ ‫المتحدة في الونة الخيرة‪ ،‬وخاصة دبعممد أحممداث ‪ 11‬سمبتمبر‪ .‬وهمذا دبعمض ممما تنماقلته أدبمرز الصمحف والمجلت المريكيمة‪:‬‬ ‫"أعداؤنا السعوديون" )مجلة ‪(Commentary‬؛ "إن الوليات المتحدة ستكون أحسن حا ا‬ ‫ل دبدون حليفهمما السممعودي"‪" ،‬أعتقممد‬ ‫أننا دبصدد طلق" )يوسف إدبراهيم الرئيس السادبق لمجلممس العلقممات الخاررجيممة دبيممن السممعودية والوليممات المتحممدة فممي مجلممة‬ ‫‪،(BusinessWeek‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ولذا يتصور ‪– Michael A. Levi‬الباحث دبعهد دبروثكينجز‪ -‬أنه من المررجح رجدا اتجاه السعودية نحو التسلح النووي‪،‬‬ ‫إاذا ما تم الطلق الفعلي دبين الدولتين‪ .‬وأثكبر دليل على اذلك حصول الرياض سراليا في نهاية الثمانينيات على صممواريخ ‪CSS-‬‬ ‫‪ 2‬من الصين‪ ،‬قرادبة ‪ 50‬أو ‪ 60‬صاروخا‪ .‬وما يميز هذه الصواريخ هو دبراعتها في حمل ونقل السلح النووي‪ .‬دليل آخممر هممو‬ ‫ما قاله محمد الخلوي ‪-‬ددبلوماسي سادبق‪ -‬أنه دبيممن ‪ 1985‬و ‪ 1990‬قمامت المملكمة دبتقممديم مسماعدات دبالجملممة للبرنامممج النمووي‬ ‫العراقي‪ ،‬على المستويين التمويلي والتكنولورجي؛ على أن تحصل السعودية علمى نصمميب ممن نتماج البرنامممج‪ .‬والممدليل الثمالث‬ ‫تمثل فيما نشرته رجريدة الم ‪ New York Times‬في يوليو ‪ 1999‬عن زيارة وزير الدفاع السعودي المير سمملطان دبممن عبممد‬ ‫العزيز آل سعود لمواقع السلحة النووية في دباثكستان‪ ،‬وتحفظ الحكومة السعودية حينذاك على هذا المر‪ ،‬ورفضها تفسير هممذه‬ ‫الزيارة‪.‬‬ ‫ويشير ‪ Levi‬إلى أن اختيار المملكة "للطريق النووي" ليس صعبا؛ فهي لديها الك ثير م ن الص دقاء المس تعدين لتق ديم‬ ‫العون‪ :‬دباثكستان‪ ،‬ثكوريا الشمالية‪ ،‬الصين‪ .‬ومن المررجح ومن المؤثكد ‪-‬ثكما يقممول ‪) Richard L.Russel‬متخص ص س عودي‬ ‫في الجامعة الوطنية للدفاع(‪ -‬أن تلجأ المملكة إلى الحصول على رءوس نووية ثكاملة دبدل من دبناء مفاعلت نووية‪ .‬فالسممعودية‬ ‫شهدت ما أحدثته إسرائيل من تدمير في المفاعل العراقي في عام ‪ ،1981‬ثكما شممهدت تهديممداتها لتفجيممر المفاعممل النممووي فممي‬ ‫"يونج دبيون" دبكوريا الشمالية في عام ‪ .1994‬ومن ثم فإن شراء الرياض لرءوس نووية رجاهزة سيقلل إلى حد ما مممن إمكانيممة‬ ‫تورجيه أي ضردبة وقائية ضدها‪ .‬دبالضافة إلمى أن السمعودية دبعكمس ثكوريما الشممالية‪ ،‬لمديها ممن الممال م ا يكفيهما لشمراء تلمك‬ ‫)‪(3‬‬ ‫الرءوس‪.‬‬ ‫ولكن لمااذا الن؟ وهنا يلقي الكاتب السبب على البرنامج النووي اليراني‪ ،‬الذي أضحى يسير دبخطى سريعة خاصة فممي الونممة‬ ‫الخيرة؛ وثكما نعلم فإن إيران هي العدو التقليدي للسعودية‪ .‬فكما ثكتب ‪- Patrick Clawson‬نائب رئيس مرثكز واشنطن‬

‫‪(1) “Holier Than Thou Saudi Arabia’s Islamic Opposition” Joshua Teitelbaum, 2000.‬‬ ‫‪(2) “Would the Saudis go Nuclear?” Michael Levi, Brookings, June, 2nd 2003.‬‬ ‫‪(3) “The way in Saudi Arabia" Simon Henderson, Washington Center for Near Eastern Studies, Aug., 2002.‬‬ ‫لدراسات الشرق الدنمى‪ -‬حي ث يقمول‪" :‬إن السمعودية همي أثكمثر المدول رغبمة ف ي النتشمار نوو لايما ثكمرد فعمل للتهديمد النمووي‬ ‫اليراني"‪ .‬فإيران تمثل خطرا شيع اليا علممى المملكممة السممنية الممتي تعتممبر مرثكممزا لكممثير مممن الشمميعة المضممطهدين‪ .‬هممذا فممي ظممل‬ ‫عدمورجود أي اتفاقية رسمية تحمي دبمورجبها الوليات المتحدة المملكة من المخمماطر الخاررجيممة‪ .‬ثممم يممأتي تزايممد مورجممات العممداء‬ ‫المريكية تجاه السعودية في الونة الخيرة؛ ليمثل عامل إضافاليا ومكمل لرجبار المملكة على اختيار البديل النووي‪ .‬فإن إزاحة‬ ‫الغطاء المني المريكي دبهذه السرعة عن المملكة ‪-‬مع تعرضها لعداء إقليمييممن رجممدد‪ -‬سمميدفع المملكممة إلممى النضمممام للنممادي‬ ‫النووي‪ .‬وطبعا سيؤدي اذلك إلى مستقبل مظلم‪ ،‬خاصة إاذا تخيلنا إمكانية السلميين لقلب الحكم‪.‬‬ ‫ولهذا يجد ‪ Levi‬نفسه ملزما في النهاية دبإسداء النصح للدارة المريكية‪ .‬فينصحها دبالحتفاظ دبعلقتها مع المملكة‪ ،‬حتى‬ ‫في مثل هذه الظروف الحررجة؛ دبل ويوصيها دبأن تزيد من دررجة الضمان المني حيال المملكة‪ ،‬مثلما فعلممت مممع غممرب أوردبمما‬ ‫في ظل الحرب الباردة؛ مما يستلزم ورجود اتفاقية رسمية‪ ..‬صممحيح أنهمما ستسممتفز مشمماعر السممعوديين فممي صممحراء المملكممة‪..‬‬ ‫ولكنها ستكون أهون من البديل )النووي( الخر‪.‬‬ ‫وفي النهاية نستطيع القول دبأن هناك ثكثيرا من الجهل دبطبيعة السياسة السعودية والمجتمع السعودي في ثكتادبات البمماحثين‬ ‫المذثكورين‪ ،‬وهناك شطط في التناول فيما يخص العممداء المريكممي للسممعودية أو العممداء السممعودي للوليممات المتحممدة‪ ،‬وثكممذلك‬ ‫دبالنسبة إلى موضوع التسلح النووي‪.‬‬

‫الدفاع عن السعودية‪ ..‬في ساحات الكونجرس!!‬ ‫لخصت رجلسة المباحثات التي عقدتها لجنة الشرق الوسط التادبعة للجنة العلقات الدولية دبمجلس النممواب المريكممي فممي‬ ‫الثاني والعشرين من مايو ‪ 2002‬لبحث مستقبل العلقات المريكيمة – السمعودية رجمزاءا ثكمبيارا ممن الجمدل المدائر فمي المدوائر‬ ‫العلمية والسياسية المريكية منذ أحداث سبتمبر حول طبيعة العلقات المريكية ‪ -‬السعودية وما إاذا ثكممانت تسممير فممي اتجمماه‬ ‫يخدم مصالح الوليات المتحدة‪.‬‬ ‫وعموما‪ ،‬دبلور المشارثكون في الجلسة ‪-‬من أعضاء دبالكونجرس وخبراء‪ -‬معالم اتجاهين أساسيين أحدهما سلبي والخممر‬ ‫إيجادبي نحو طبيعة العلقات المريكية ‪ -‬السعودية دبصفة عامة‪ ،‬ومنذ أحداث سبتمبر على ورجه الخصوص‪.‬‬ ‫التجاه السلبي ل يريد الشراثكة السعودية‪ ,‬وقد تبلورت حجج هذا التجاه حول النقاط التالية‪:‬‬ ‫أول‪ :‬على المستوى الفكري والديني‪ ،‬انطلق أصحاب هذا التجاه في انتقادهم للمملكة دبانتقاد الوهادبية ثكمممذهب ووصممفوه‬ ‫دبالتطرف‪ ،‬واذثكروا أن الصولية انتشرت دبالمال السعودي في مختلف أنحاء العالم السلمي‪ ،‬خاصة في مدارس دباثكستان التي‬ ‫تعلم فيها الطالبان‪.‬‬ ‫وأضاف رجيمس ولسي فكرة أن الوهادبية وحدها ليست مسئولة عن فكر الجماعمات المتطرفمة‪ ،‬ولكنهما وفق ا لق وله ملثلمت‬ ‫هي والصولية السلمية المنتشرة في مختلف أنحاء العالم السلمي تردبة خصبة لنشممأة الجماعممات الرهادبيممة‪ ،‬مثممل القاعممدة‪.‬‬ ‫ثكما رثكز دبعض المتحدثين ‪-‬وعلى رأسهم النائب دبراني فرانك والنائب دبنجامين رجيلمان رئيس الجلسة‪ -‬على فكممرة ورجممود همموة‬ ‫ثقافية تفصل قيم الوليات المتحدة عن قيم المملكة العردبية السعودية‪ ،‬ومن ثم ضرورة عممدم الحممديث عممن ورجممود قيممم مشممترثكة‬ ‫تردبط أمريكا دبالسعودية‪.‬‬ ‫ثانيا‪ :‬على المستوى التاريخي‪ ،‬أوضح أصحاب هذا التجاه أن العلقات السعودية ‪ -‬المريكية ثكانت طيبة خلل الحرب‬ ‫الباردة فقط‪ ،‬عندما اتحدت مصالح الوليات المتحدة مع المملكة في محاردبة الشيوعية‪ ،‬ثكما دفعت حرب الخليج الثانية المملكممة‬ ‫إلى القتراب من الوليات المتحدة عندما احتارجتها لحمايتها من صدام حسين‪ .‬وحاول رجوررجي رجموز تقممديم فكممرة إضمافية فمي‬ ‫هذا التجاه‪ ،‬مفادها أن السعودية ليست صديقة أو عدوة للوليات المتحدة‪ ،‬وإنما يجب معاملتهمما ثكشممريكة فقممط‪ ،‬واذلممك حممتى ل‬ ‫تتقيد الوليات المتحدة في تعاملها مع السعودية دبتبعات معاملتها ثكدولة صديقة‪ .‬وفي هذا السياق‪ ،‬نصممح أصممحاب هممذا التجمماه‬ ‫دبضرورة تقليل الوليات المتحدة من اعتمادها على النفط السعودي‪ .‬وطرح رجيمس ولس فكرة العتماد علممى روسمميا ثكمصممدر‬ ‫دبديل للنفط‪ ،‬وفكرة تطوير مصادر غير دبترولية لوقود وسائل المواصلت في الوليممات المتحممدة الممتي تعتممبر مسممتهلكا رئيسمميا‬ ‫للنفط‪.‬‬ ‫ثالثا‪ :‬على مستوى الوضع الداخلي في المملكة‪ ،‬ورجه أصحاب هذا التجمماه العديممد مممن النتقممادات للنظممام السممعودي فممي‬ ‫مجال الديمقراطية وحقوق النسان وحقوق النساء‪ ،‬ثكممما اذثكممروا أن فممرص الصمملح فممي المملكممة قليلممة دبسممبب تخلممف النظممام‬

‫التعليمي وغياب الديمقراطية‪ .‬وفي تناقض عجيب‪ ،‬حذر رجوررجي رجوز من خطورة السراع دبالصلح السياسي في المملكممة؛‬ ‫لنه قد يؤدي إلى وصول رجماعات إسلمية أصولية ‪-‬أقل انفتاحا على الغرب مقارنة دبالنظام السعودي الحالي‪ -‬إلى الحكم‪.‬‬ ‫ثكما انتقد أصحاب هذا التجاه مما رأوه ممن انتشمار لمشماعر العممداء للوليمات المتحمدة والعمداء للس امية داخ ل المجتممع‬ ‫السعودي‪ ،‬مشيرين إلى دبعض الدراسات التي أرجرتهمما مؤسسممات أمريكيممة عممن انتشممار تأييممد دبممن لدن دبيممن السممعوديين‪ ،‬وإلممى‬ ‫النتقادات اللاذعة التي ورجهها دبعض المسمؤولين السمعوديين للوليمات المتحمدة والرئيمس رجمورج دبموش‪ ،‬وعلمى رأس همؤلء‬ ‫المسؤولين السفير السعودي في دبريطانيا الذي أشار أثكثر من نممائب مممن النممواب المشمارثكين فمي الجلسممة إلمى دبعممض الكتادبممات‬ ‫المسيئة لجورج ددبليو دبوش التي نشرها السفير السعودي في رجريدة الحياة اللندنية‪.‬‬ ‫هرابععا‪ :‬على مستوى سياسة المملكة الخاررجية وخاصة في الشرق الوسط‪ ،‬شكك أصحاب هذا التجاه في أهمية ورجممدوى‬ ‫نوايا مبادرة السلم السعودية الخيرة‪ ،‬وعللوا موقفهم هذا دبأن السعودية لم تلعب دوارا في عملية السلم دبالشممرق الوسممط منممذ‬ ‫انطلقها في أواخر السبعينيات‪ ،‬وأنها لم تهتم دبالضغط على الرئيس الفلسطيني ياسر عرفات لقبول اتفاقية "ثكممامب ديفيممد" فممي‬ ‫أواخممر عهممد الرئيممس ثكلينتممون‪ .‬ثكممما وصممف دبعضممهم المبممادرة السممعودية دبالعموميممة‪ ،‬وانتقممدوها لهتمامهمما دبعممودة اللرجئيممن‬ ‫الفلسطينيين‪ ،‬وهو ما يهدد دبالقضاء على إسرائيل ثكدولة يهودية ووطن لليهود‪.‬‬ ‫سا‪ :‬دبخصوص مسئولية السعودية عن أحداث سبتمبر‪ ،‬طالب دبعممض أصمحاب هممذا التجماه فممي التحقيممق فمي علقممة‬ ‫خام ع‬ ‫دبعض النظمة دبتمويل الجماعات الرهادبية‪ ،‬وورجهوا العديد من التهامات لما أسموه دبالمال السعودي؛ وقالوا دبأنه اسممتخدم فممي‬ ‫تمويل المدارس الدينية في دباثكستان التي تخرج منها الطالبان‪ ،‬وأن دبن لدن استخدمه فممي تمويممل القاعممدة ومرتكممبي تفجيممرات‬ ‫الحادي عشر من سبتمبر‪ .‬ثكما أشاروا إلى دعم المملكة لحرثكات مسمملحة فلسممطينية وقممالوا دبممأن المملكممة تمثممل تهديممدا لجارتهمما‬ ‫إسرائيل؛ المر الذي ويصلعب من العتماد عليها ثكشريكة في مكافحة الرهاب‪ ،‬خاصة مع إحجام المملكة عن السماح للوليات‬ ‫المتحدة دباستخدام قواعدها في مهارجمة العراق وطالبان مؤخرا‪.‬‬ ‫وأخيرا وعلى مستوى التوصيات العملية التي قدمها أصحاب هذا التجاه‪ ،‬فقد طالبوا دبتممدخل الوليممات المتحممدة للضممغط‬ ‫المباشر على المملكة العردبية السعودية لدخال الصلحات المطلودبة علممى المسممتويات الفكريممة والتعليميممة والسياسممية أيضمما‪.‬‬ ‫وانتقد أصحاب هذا التجاه ما وصفوه دبأنه ازدوارجية فممي المعممايير المريكيممة فمي التعامممل مممع المملكممة العردبيممة السممعودية؛ إاذ‬ ‫تتغاضى أمريكا عن ممارسات سعودية تعاقب عليها دول أخرى؛ وأعطوا مثال في اذلممك دبكودبمما الممتي تنتقممدها أمريكمما لنظامهمما‬ ‫غير الديمقراطي‪.‬‬ ‫التجاه اليجادبي اضطلع دبالجانب الثكبر من مهمة دبلورة الحجج المضادة للتجاه الخر المعممادي للمملكممة الممتي وصممفها دبأنهمما‬ ‫غير صحيحة ومضللة‪ .‬وفيما يلي ردود أصحاب هذا التجاه على الحجج السادبقة‪:‬‬ ‫أول ‪ :‬دبالنسبة لعلقة الوهادبية دبالتطرف والرهماب‪ ،‬وصمف ميرفمي الوهادبيممة دبأنهمما ممذهب دينممي يهتممم دبالتفسمير الملممتزم‬ ‫للقرآن وتعاليم السلم؛ ولكنه ل ينادي أدبدا دبسفك الدماء ول يرثكز على هذه الفكرة دبالمرة؛ لنه ليس قائما عليهمما‪ ،‬ثكممما يحمماول‬ ‫التجاه الخر تصويره‪ .‬ثكما حذر ميرفي من خطورة الساءة لمشاعر المسلمين والتدخل غيممر المممبرر فممي نظممامهم التعليمممي؛‬ ‫وأوضح أن مهمة تغيير المناهج الدينية دبالمدارس السعودية مهمة تعجز الوليات المتحدة عن القيممام دبهمما –ول يجممب أصممل أن‬ ‫تفكر في القيام دبها لنها ليست من اختصاصها‪ -‬إضافة إلى أن الشعب السعودي شعب متدين ويستحيل نزع المواد الدينيممة مممن‬ ‫مناهجه التعليمية‪.‬‬ ‫ثانيا‪ :‬دبالنسبة لمسألة معوقات الديمقراطية وحقوق النسان في المملكة‪ ،‬أشار ميرفي إلى أن العديد من السعوديين أنفسهم‬ ‫يعترفون دبهذه المشاثكل ويبغضونها ويرغبون في معالجتها دبما في اذلك النظام السعودي نفسه‪.‬‬ ‫ثالثا‪ :‬رفض ميرفي فكرة الردبط دبين السعودية وأحداث سبتمبر‪ ،‬موضحا أن النظام السعودي هو في حد اذاته هدف لدبممن‬ ‫لدن والقاعدة‪.‬‬ ‫هرابععا‪ :‬على مستوى السياسة الخاررجية‪ ،‬انتقد أصحاب هذا التجاه أية محاولة للتقليل من أهمية مبادرة السلم السعودية‪،‬‬ ‫ووصف دانا رودباثكر المبادرة دبأنها خطوة هائلة يجب تقديرها‪ ،‬ثكما طالب دبالتدرج وإعطاء المممور دبعممض المموقت لن التغييممر‬ ‫التدريجي هو التغيير الفضل‪.‬‬ ‫خامسا‪ :‬على مسممتوى العتممماد المتبممادل دبيممن الوليممات المتحممدة والمملكممة وخاصممة فممي مجمالي النفممط وورجممود القموات‬ ‫المريكية المورجودة في الخليج‪ ،‬رثكز أصحاب هذا التجاه على ضرورة النظر إلممى المصممالح المريكيممة السممعودية المشممترثكة‬ ‫من منظور عقلني واقعي يدرس المور من مختلف رجوانبها‪ ،‬موضحين أنه ليس من مصلحة أمريكا أو من الواقعي أصل أن‬ ‫تقوم دبسحب قواتها دبسرعة من الراضي السعودية‪.‬‬

‫أما على مستوى التوصيات العملية المقدمة من أصحاب هذا التجاه‪ ،‬فقد أوصوا دبتجنب الساءة إلممى مشمماعر الجممماهير‬ ‫المسلمة والعردبية‪ ،‬وإلى تجنب التدخل في شؤون الدول الداخلية‪ ،‬ثكما أوضحوا أن أفضل أسلوب للعمل مع المملكة هو التعاون‬ ‫معها ومشارثكتها مشارثكة فعالة‪ ،‬ثكما أوصوا أيضا دبضرورة التدرج وعدم التسرع في التغيير‪.‬‬ ‫وأشار النائب دانا رودباثكر في نهاية الجلسة ‪-‬في إشارة ل تخلو من شجاعة ثكبيرة‪ -‬إلى أنه إاذا أرادت أمريكا التخلممي عممن‬ ‫ازدوارجية المعايير‪ ،‬فعليها أن تبدأ دبعلقتها دبإسرائيل التي تسيء إلى مشاعر الجماهير المسملمة والعردبيمة‪ ،‬وقممد انتهممت الجلسمة‬ ‫تقريبا دبعد تعليق رودباثكر هذا‪ ..‬وهو ما اعتبر ثكخاتمة إيجادبية انتصر فيها‪ ،‬واختتم دبها التجاه المساند للملكة الجلسة‪.‬‬

‫تاريخ العلقات المريكية السورية‬ ‫مادبعد الحرب العالمية الثانية‬ ‫ثكمعظم دول المنطقة لم تحصل سوريا علمى اسمتقللها حمتى ‪ 1946‬منتصمف القمرن العشممرين لهممذا فالعلقاتالخاررجيممة السممورية‬ ‫متأثرة دبالحرب الباردة حيث ان الوليات المتحدة سعت لتحديد السيطرة السوفيتية من خلل توطيد العلقاتع مع ترثكيا و العراق‬ ‫و دباثكستان ثكما سعت لتوطيد العلقة مع سورية ال انها صارت عميلة سوقيتية دبعد ان دعمت امريكمما اسممرائيل فممي حممرب اليممام‬ ‫)‪(1‬‬ ‫الستة حيث ان سياستها ثكانت تتمخور حول التعامل مع نشاة اسرائيل و رجهود العرب ضدها‪.‬‬ ‫في ‪ 13‬نوفمبر ‪ 1970‬قام قائد القوات الجوية حافظ السد دبانقلب داخلي و استولى على الحكم و قد قممام دبتوطيممد حكمممه دبتطهيممر‬ ‫حزب البعث من اعضاءه اليسارين المتطرقين و غيرهم من المعارضين السياسيينزو نتيجة لحكمه سمموريا ‪ 30‬عقممدا فممان معظممم‬ ‫قرارات ادارته‪ -‬التي تخص الحرب الهلية اللبنانيممة و الصممراع السمرائيلي و الحممرب البمماردة‪ -‬هممي اسمماس السياسممة السممورية‬ ‫)‪(2‬‬ ‫الخاررجية حاليا‪.‬‬

‫‪1976-1990‬‬ ‫خلل حكم السد اشترثكت سوري في عدة احداث اقليمية هامة حيث انممه نتيجممة النقسممام دبيممن الطوائممف اللبنانيممة وارجهممت لبنممان‬ ‫حرب اهلية مما ادي الى استعانة الحكومة اللبنانية المحاصرة دبدعم القوات السورية و قد ادى هذا الى وضعها على قائمممة الممدول‬ ‫المسئولة عن الرهاب منذ صدوره مما ادي الي تعرضها الي الكثير من العقودبات المريكية وتشمل حصارات اقتصادية و قيود‬ ‫على التصدير الي سوريا و في ‪ 1986‬قامت امريكا دبفرض عقودبات ادارية رجديدة و حصممار رجديممد يهممدف الممي منممع سمموريا مممن‬ ‫استيراد اسلحة امريكيةو و قامت دباستدعاء سفيرها ردا على محاولة سوريا المباشرة لتفجير طائرة اسرائيلية‪1987 .‬عاد السفير‬ ‫المريكي ال مشق نتيجة لفعال سوريا الرجادبية ضد الرهاب ثكطرد منظمة ادبي نضال و المساعدة في انقااذ رهيممن امريكممي‪ .‬ال‬ ‫ان السد ثكان حريصا اثكثر علي توطيد العلقات السورية السموفيتية نتيجمة مس اعدتهم فمي تمدرىب افمراد عسمكريين س وريين و‬ ‫تمويلهم\دعمهم دبمئات السلحة ال ان علقتهم وارجهت فترة عدم استقرار و تضارب مصالحز و قد ادى انهيار التحاد السمموفيتى‬ ‫)‪(3‬‬ ‫ال تغيير رجذري في السياسة الخاررجية السورية فترة التسعيتيات‪.‬‬

‫‪1991-2000‬‬ ‫انعكس هذا التغيير على العلقات المريكية السورية فقد ساهمت سوريا في التحممالف الخليجممي الفارسممي عممام ‪ 1991‬و تحممالفت‬ ‫امريك و سوريا لنهاء الحرب الهلية اللبنانية من خلل اتفاقية الطائفو في نفس العام قام الرئيممس السممد دباتخممااذ قممرار مصمميري‬ ‫لسياسة ادارته حين قبل دعوة دبوش الب لحضور مؤتمر سلم الشرق الوسط في انا دبوليس للنخراط في مفاوضات ثنائيممة مممع‬ ‫اسرائيل مما ادى الى تحسن في العلقممات دبينهمممازو قممد ازداد هممذا التحسممن دبممع محمماولت سمموريا تممامين الفممراج عممن الرهممائن‬ ‫)‪(4‬‬ ‫الرجانب في لبنان و تخفيف القيو على سفر اليهود السوريين‪.‬‬

‫دبعد احداث سبتمبر ‪2001‬‬ ‫قامت الستبلرات السورية دباعطاء امريكا معلومات هامة عن مختطف الطائرة محمد عطا و دبعض اعضاء القيادة ثكما قامت‬ ‫‪http://usforeignplicy.about.com/ad/countryprfi3/p/syriaprofile.html ((1‬‬ ‫)‪http://mei.edu/portals/o/content%20edition%206ckl/syrian_foreign_plicy_biblio.pdf (2‬‬ ‫)‪IBID (3‬‬ ‫)‪IBID(4‬‬

‫سوريا في محاولة لتحسين العلقات دباغلق مكاتب صحف المنظمات الفلسطينية المتعصبة عام ‪2002‬زثكما صوتت مع امريكمما‬ ‫للموافقة على قرار المم المتحدة في ‪ 14‬نوفمبر ‪ - 2003‬التي ورجدت في العراق خرقمما ماديمما لقممرارات المممم المتحممدة السممادبقة‪-‬‬ ‫الذي يطالب العراق دبنزع السلح ز و دبالرغم من اذللك وصلت العلقات دبينهما الى اذروة هيارجها ثكمما وصمفها ريتشمارد ممورفي‬ ‫السفير المريكي السادبق دبسوريا و السعودية حيث ان الرئيس دبشار السد نقد الحرب على العراق و عارضها مما ادى الى اتهام‬ ‫سوريا دبتوفير ملرجئ لمستويات عليا من البعثيين العراقيين‪ -‬ردبما عدى و قسي نجلي صدام حسين‪-‬و السماح للمعدات العسممكرية‬ ‫و المقاتلين الجهاديين دبالعبور لحدود العراق حيث انه دبين ال ‪ 248‬مقاتل ارجنمبي المذين قبممض عليهممم دبمالعراق‪ -‬فمي ‪ 23‬سمبتمبر‬ ‫)‪(1‬‬ ‫‪ 123 -2003‬سوري دبناء على ما اقر دبه لزدبول دبريمير المسئول المريكي في العراق‪.‬‬ ‫في مايو ‪ 2004‬قام دبوش الدبن دبمنع ثكل الصادرات الى سوريا ما عدا الطعام و الدواء ثكما منممع الطممائرات السمموريةمن الطيممران‬ ‫فوق سماء الوليات المتحدة ثكما استخدم سلطته التي منحها له القانون الوطني لطلب قطع العلقات مع البنممك التجمماري السمموري‬ ‫حيث اتهمه دبدعم الرهادبين و غسيل الموال دبناء على ما اقر دبه رجون زارات مساع وزير الخزانة لمافحممة الرهمادبز ثكمما تمممت‬ ‫مناقشة وضع حصارات رجدية دبع اغتيال الحريري‪.‬‬

‫في سبتمبر ‪ 2006‬هورجمت السفارة المريكية دبدمشق دبواسطة اردبعة مسلحين و سيارة مفخخممة و الممتي فشممل تفجيممره و رغممم ان‬ ‫سوري ق نجحت في قتل المسلحينمما ادى الى قتل سوري مدني و حارس امن حكممومي و اعلنممت ان الحممادث مسممئولية ارهادبيممة‬ ‫ال ان هذا لم يحسن العلقة لن الحكومة المريكية لمم يصملهااي معلومممات عممن الحمادث ودوافعممه او المنظممة الممتى وراءه ثكممما‬ ‫)‪(2‬‬ ‫اصرت سوريا ان مسئولية هذا الحادث تقع على عاتق امريكا‪.‬و ق ظلت العلقات متوترة حتى نهاية ادارة دبوش‪.‬‬ ‫مع دبداية الارة الجديدة في مارس ‪ 2007‬قام اودباما دبارسال رجيفريد‪.‬فيلمان مساعد وزير الخاررجية مسئول شئون الشرق الوسط‬ ‫و انيال دبزشادبريو اعلى مسئول عن الشرق الوسط في مجلس المن القومي الى دمشق لمقادبلة مسئولين سوريين لبحث العلقات‬ ‫دبين الدولتين و حيث ان هذين الشخصين يعممدوا مممن اعلممى المراتممب الممتي تمم ارسماله منممذ ‪ 2005‬فممان هممذا يمثممل تغيممر السياسممة‬ ‫)‪(3‬‬ ‫المريكية تجاه سوريا‪.‬‬ ‫دبالرغم من ورجود نزعات ثكثيرة دبينهما ال ان هذا لم يمنع ورجود مصالح مشترثكة و ان ثكانت متضاردبة احيانا و قد انحصرت هذه‬ ‫المصالح في اردبع مناطق استراتيجية دبالنسمبة للوليمات المتحمدة فمي الشمرق الوسمط ‪ .‬همذه المنماطق همي ايمران العمراق لبنمان‬ ‫واسرائيل‪.‬‬

‫إيران‬ ‫لدي ثكل من سوريا وإيران هدف مشترك وهو إل يكون عراق القادمه دبالنسبة لمريكا لذلك فاها دبتوضمميح اتفاقيممة دفمماع مشممترك‬ ‫عام ‪ .2004‬فقد دعمت سوريا إيران فترد الحرب اليرانية العراقية ف ي ‪ 1980‬وانش قت عمن معظمم المدول العردبيمة همما عكمس‬ ‫الخصومة دبين البعثين السوريين والبعثين الذين يتبعون حق أم ثكما سبقت دمشق الف اليرانين السائحين ثكل عممام الممذين نجحمموا‬ ‫للماثكن المقدمه الشعبية في شرويا ثكما أن إيران ترسل ملين الدولرات لبناء المسارجد وتجديدها ‪.‬ثكما أن إيممران دعمممت سمموريا‬ ‫دبعد إعتيال رئيس الوزراء اللبناني في فبراير ‪ 2005‬فكما قال لسنسكاي أن إيران وسوريا يران نفسهما ثكدولفان تحت الحصممار‬ ‫محاطة دبالخصوم " لذلك فأن العلقة دبينهما منيه علي المنافع المشترثكة ودبممالرغم هممذا فبعممض الراء تجممد أن مصممالحهم تختلممف‬ ‫عندما تكون المنطقة مستقرة وتحد عن ما يورجد نزاع‬ ‫)‪http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Syrian_relations(1‬‬ ‫)‪op-cit(1‬‬ ‫)‪www.brooking.edu/article/2009/03/9=syria_saab.aspx (3‬‬

‫ودبسبب علقتها السيئة مع إيران وعلقتها الغير مقرر مصيرها مع سوريا فان سياسة الوليات المتحدة مشتتة دبين تحقيق علقممة‬ ‫مستقرة مع سوريا علي أساس وعود الدارة الجديدة والتعامل مع التهديد اليراني وخصوصاا دبورجود التحممالف العسممكري منهممما‬ ‫)‪(1‬‬ ‫وتأثيره علي العلقات اللبنانية السورية والعلقات السورية السرائيلية‪.‬‬ ‫لبنان‬ ‫لسوريا تاثير فعال علي السياسية الخاررجية اللبنانية فقد اختلفت سمموريا رجممزءاا ثكممبراا مممن لبنممان لمممدة ‪ 30‬عاممما ا ويوحممد حاليما ا ممما‬ ‫يقارب ‪ 15000‬رجندي سوريا في لبنان ثكما أن حزب ا ‪ ،‬رجماعة شعبه مسممكه تممدعمها سموريا وحممزب امم نشممط منممذ فممترة فمي‬ ‫رجنوب لبنان ‪ .‬نتيجة لدعم حزب ا فان الوليات المتحدة طالبت عدة مرات سوريا دبضعف قواتها مممن لبنممان وعممدم التممدخل فممي‬ ‫السياسة اللبنانية والكن عن دعمها للجامعة حزب ا المتطرفة ‪.‬‬ ‫أن الورجود السوري يررجع إلي عام ‪ 1970‬حيث دبداية الحرب الهلية اللبنانية عن من طلب الرئيممس اللبنمماني دعممم سمموري وعنممد‬ ‫نهاية هذه الحرب دبسبب اتفاقية الطائف التي أعطي فيها حافظ السج حق سبعها علي معظم لبنان في مقادبل وعد يتحقق اسممتقرار‬ ‫داخلي وثكان من المفترض أن تضع سوريا رجدول زمني لسحب قواتها من لبنممان إلممي وادي دبكمما ‪ -‬منظمممه إسممتراتجية أمنيممة دبيممن‬ ‫لبنان وسوريا – دبنهاية عام ‪ 1992‬وتاريخ أخر ؟؟؟ مع الحكومممة ال أن لبنممان لمم يطلمب ممن سموريا قمط المغممادرة ‪.‬وقممد أعلنممت‬ ‫سوريا أن قواتها التي وصل عددها إلي ‪ 40000-35000‬في عام ‪ 2000‬في حالة اسممتقرار وأعلنممت أنهمما ستسممحبها فممور طلممب‬ ‫)‪(2‬‬ ‫لبنان اذلك‪.‬‬ ‫إل أن المم المتحدة ثكانت تطالب ثكل القوات الرجنبية )سوريا – إسرائيل والمقاتلين الفلسطينيين( من الخمروج مممن لبنممان وحيممث‬ ‫أن إسرائيل قامت دبسحب قواتها عام ‪ 2000‬فقد اتجه النتباه ناحية القوات السورية وفي ايلول ‪ 2004‬صدر قرار المممم المتحممدة‬ ‫رقم ‪ 1559‬وهو الخير لمجلس المن دبشأن اتخااذ إرجراء دبورجود شممأن عسممكري أرجنممبي فممي لبنممان وقممد دعممم هممذا القممرار فرنسمما‬ ‫وأمريكا ودبعض المصلحين اللبنانين ثكرفيق الحريري ثكما تتضمن القرار طلب نزع أسمملحة الجيمموش المؤقتممة‪.‬حيممث أن ثكممل هممذه‬ ‫الجيوش ثكان من المفترض نزع سلحها دبعد حرب لبنان الهلية إل أن لبنان اسنت حزب امم حيممث اعتممبرته أنممه مفاوضممة ضممد‬ ‫الورجود السرائيلي في رجنوب لبنان وفي يناير ‪ 2005‬أرسل الميممن العمام للمممم المتحممدة مبعمموث لتنفيممذ قممرار ‪ 1559‬ودبممدأ هممذا‬ ‫المبعوث يتعامل مع مسئولي لبنانيين وسورييين‪ .‬في نفس الشهر ضغطت سوريا علي البرلممان لقاممة تعممديل دسممتوري لتمكيمن‬

‫الرئيس اللبناني ايميل لحود‪ -‬مسيحيى ماروني‪ -‬من الحكم لفترة أخرى مما أدي صإلي تقدير الحريري استقالته ثكنمموع مممن الرفممض‬ ‫)‪(3‬‬ ‫لهذا التعديل‪.‬‬ ‫في ‪ 14‬فبراير ‪ 2005‬تسببت عردبة مفخخة في قتل الحريري وعشرات أخرين ثكما رجرح المئات وقد نفت سمموريا ورجممود يممد لهمما‬ ‫في هذه الحادثة ولكن دبسبب هذا الحادث فقد اتجه النتباه القومي والدولي ناحية التدخل السمموري وظهممرت مشمماعر ضممد سمموريا‬ ‫ثكانت غير ظاهرة مما أدي إلي اتجاه الرأي العام لدعم النسحاب السوري من لبنان دبغض النظر عن صعودبته حيممث ان لبنممان ل‬ ‫يورجد دبها دبعض قوات عسكرية سورية لكن يورجد أثكثر من مليون عامل سوري دبالضافة إلي الستخبارات السورية المزروعممة‬ ‫وسط المجتمع اللبناني ثكما أن سوريا تتحكم دبطريقة غير مباشرة في حكم لبنان من خلل دعمها لحزب ا حتى وإن لم تكن‬ ‫‪(1) http://www.cfr.org/publication/7851/middle_east.html‬‬ ‫‪(2) IBID‬‬ ‫‪(3) IBID‬‬ ‫مدعم رئيس له علي عكس إيران لكن سوريا تعد القناة التي يصل من خللها هذا الدعم فيصل إلي حزب امم ‪ 10‬مليممون‬ ‫)‪(1‬‬ ‫دولر سنويا من طهران إضافة إلي دعم مسلح ويتم نقله عن طريق سوريا إلي رجنوب شرق لبنان‬ ‫لذلك فإن حزب ا يعتبر المفتاح الرئيسي الفعال لعادة شرعية سوريا في لبنممان المنهمارة حاليما لمذلك فبممدعم حمزب امم والممذي‬ ‫ستتسبب دبنزاع مع إسرائيل فإن دمشق تسمع لسرائيل دبزعزعة الستقرار في لبنان حتى يزداد تممدخلها وتأثيرهمما علممي السياسممة‬ ‫)‪(2‬‬ ‫اللبنانية‪.‬‬

‫العراق‬ ‫إن العلقات العراقية السورية حددت دبواسطة حممدودهما المشممترثكة دبجممانب الروادبممط التاريخيممة‪ ،‬الثقافيممة‪ ،‬السياسممية‪ ،‬الرجتماعيممة‬ ‫والقتصادية فالجهود من أرجل رجعل سوريا والعراق دبلد واحد منذ نشأة البلد والوليات الجديدة‪.‬‬ ‫وقد ظلت العلقات دبينهما رجيدة في ‪ 1960‬نتيجة أن ثكلهما ثكان يحكمه حزب البعث لكن هذه العلقة تدهورت دبعد سيطرة صدام‬ ‫)‪(3‬‬ ‫حسين علي الحكم حتى أن سوريا قامت دبغلق سفارتها دببغداد في ‪.1979‬‬ ‫ودبرغم قطع العلقممات دبيممن الممدولتين فممي الماضممي إل أن علقممة البلممدين اختممبرت تتطممور ملحمموظ فممي السممنوات الخيممرة وأدت‬ ‫الزيارات دبينهما إلي الكثير من التفاقيات علي التعاون القتصادي ويتضمممن اتفاقيممة لسممتكمال واسممتمرارية ضممخ البممترول إلممي‬ ‫سوريا الذي ثكان قد توقف في ‪.1982‬‬ ‫ودبالرغم من انضمام سوريا إلي التحالف ضد صدام لتحرير الكويت إل أنها ثكانت من الجمبر وأثكممثر الممدول المعارضمين للحمرب‬ ‫علي العراق في ‪ 2003‬وقد أظهرت ضرورة حصول العمراق علمي اسمتقللها ودعممت عملياتهما السياسمية ثكمما طمالبت دبجمدول‬ ‫زمني لسحب القوات من العراق ثكما لعبت سوريا دور الضيف لثكثر من ‪ 2‬مليون عراقي ودبالرغم من تفارجئ الوليممات المتحممدة‬ ‫دبهذا إل أن دبعض ورجهات النظر ورجدت أنه من مصلحة سوريا ورجود صدام حسين ثكرئيس دولة مجاورة دبدل من رئيس حكومممة‬ ‫)‪(4‬‬ ‫تدعم أمريكا ثم ثكما أن التعاطف مع صدام لوقوفه ضد أمريكا أمتد من عامة الشعب إلي الرئيس السوري دبذاته‪.‬‬ ‫ولقد أنتهي أي نزاع دبين سوريا والعراق دبعد زيارة وزير الخاررجية السوري وليد مصلح للعراق في عام ‪ 2006‬والذي ثكممان أول‬ ‫ارجتماع دبين الدولتين دبعد سقوط صدام في ‪ 2003‬أعيممد إنشمماء السممفارات مممرة أخممرى فممي عممام ‪ 2006‬إل أنممه فممي ‪ 23‬أغسممطس‬ ‫‪ 2009‬دبنت الحكومة العراقية محادثة مسجلة تردبط دبين اثنين من أعضمماء الحرثكممة البعثيممة العراقيممة مقرهمما سمموريا وهممما سممطام‬ ‫فرحان ومحمد يونس الحمد وتفجيرات دبغداد التي حدثت في ‪ 19‬أغسطس ‪ 2009‬وأدت دبحياة أثكثر من ‪ 100‬شممخص وقممد نفممت‬ ‫وزارة الخاررجية السورية تورطها في هذا الحادث وفي ‪ 25‬أغسطس استدعت العراق سفيرها لدى عودته مممن سمموريا أصممدرت‬ ‫الحكومة السورية أمرا مماثل دباستدعاء سفيرها من العراق ومما وقت لحق أعلنت الحكومة السلمية العراقية أن المسئول عن‬ ‫الحادث تنظيم القاعدة‪.‬‬

‫‪OP-cit‬‬

‫)‪(1‬‬

‫‪http://www.cfr.org/publication/11122/‬‬

‫)‪(2‬‬

‫‪http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq%E2%80%93Syria_relations‬‬

‫)‪(3‬‬

‫‪http://www.meforum.org/555/syria-and-the-united-states-bad-habits-die-hard‬‬

‫)‪(4‬‬

‫اسرائيل )‪.(1‬‬ ‫حيممث ان سمموريا ثكممانت المحاردبممة الفعالممة فممي العردبيممة السممرائيلية فممي العممام ‪ 1967‬الحممرب ‪ ،‬أسممفرهذا عممن احتلل اسممرائيل‬ ‫لمرتفعات الجولن ومدينة القنيطرة‪ .‬دبعد حرب اثكتودبر ‪ 1973‬و التي تسببت دبزيادة الراضي السممورية المحتلممة لممذلك اضممطرت‬ ‫سوري للمواققة على قرار مجلس المن القومي رقم ‪338‬و المذي يعمد تاثكيمدا عل ى قمرار ‪ 242‬و المذي يعممد اس اس الكفاوضمات‬ ‫السلمية في مدريد و التي تطالب دبتحقبق سلم في الشرق الوسط و مطالبة اسرائيل دباررجاعو النسممحاب الراضمي الممتي احتلتهمما‬ ‫في ‪ 1967‬و العتراف دبحق و سيادة و حدود ثكمل المدول فمي المنطقمة و العيمش فمي س لم داخمل حمدود امنمة‪ .‬و نتيجمة للجهمود‬ ‫المريكية التي قام دبها وزيممر الررجيممة هنممري ثكاسممنجر توصمملت سمموريا و اسمرائيل اتفمماق فممك ارتبمماط اتمماح لسمموريا اسممتررجاع‬ ‫اراضيها و رجزء من مرتفعات الجولن في مايو ‪1974‬ز و قد راقبت المم المتحدة تنفيذ هذه التفاقية‪.‬‬ ‫في ديسمبر ‪ ، 1981‬صوت الكنيست السرائيلي على تمديممد القممانون السممرائيلي لجممزء مممن مرتفعممات الجممولن الممتي احتفظممت‬ ‫إسرائيل دبالسيطرة عليها‪ .‬في وقت لحق وافق مجلس المممن الممدولي علممى قممرار يممدعو اسممرائيل الممى الغمماء هممذا التممددبير‪ .‬ثكممما‬ ‫شارثكت سوريا في مؤتمر السلم في الشرق الوسط في مدريد في تشرين الول ‪ .1991‬رجرت المفاوضات دبشكل متقطممع خلل‬ ‫‪ ، 1990s‬وثكان قريبا رجدا من النجاحز ال انه لم يتمكن الطرفان من التوصل إل ى اتف اق يررج ع إل ى الرئي س دبي ل ثكلينت ون فش ل‬ ‫للتشاور مع الرئيس السوري حافظ السد خلل عملية التفمماوض ثكممما ان رئيممس المموزراء السممرائيلي ايهممود دبمماراك ترارجممع عممن‬ ‫قضية الساحل الشمالي الشرقي لبحيرة طبريا و رفضت سوريا التفاوض على وضع ‪ 4‬يونيممو ‪.1967‬و انهممارت عمليممة السمملم‬ ‫تماما اثر النتفاضة الفلسطينية في ‪ . 2000‬وال ان سموريا ثكمانت ل تمزال تمدعو إلمى التوصمل إلمى تسموية شماملة علمى أسماس‬ ‫قراري مجلس المن ‪ 242‬و ‪ 338‬ومبدأ الرض مقادبل السلم الذي اعتمد في مؤتمر مدريد عام ‪.1991‬‬ ‫غير ان التوتر استمر و زاد فترة النتفاضة نتيجة لرفض سوريا لوقف تقديم الملاذ لجماعممات ارهادبيممة فلسممطينية تنفيممذ عمليممات‬ ‫ضد اسرائيل في أثكتودبر ‪ ، 2003‬في أعقاب تفجير انتحاري نفذه عضو في حرثكة الجهاد السمملمي الفلسممطينية فممي مدينممة حيفمما‬ ‫التي أسفرت عن مقتل ‪ 20‬مواطنين إسرائيليين ‪ ،‬هارجمت قوات رجيش الدفاع السرائيلي فلسطينيا للشممتباه فممي معسممكر لتممدريب‬ ‫الرهادبيين على دبعد ‪ 15‬ثكم شمال دمشق‪ .‬ثكان هذا هو أول هجوم من قبيل إسرائيل في عمق الراضي السورية منممذ حممرب عممام‬ ‫‪ . 1973‬و دبعد اعلن هذا التقرير اعلميا ‪ ،‬اعلنت سوريا انها سترد دبالوسائل الددبلوماسمية ‪ ،‬وطلبممت ممن مجلمس المممن المدولى‬ ‫ادانة العمال السرائيلية‪.‬‬ ‫في عامي ‪ 2004‬و ‪ 2005‬اسرائيل وسوريا تشارثكت اسرائيل وسوريا في محادثات خاصة لمناقشة الخطموط العريضممة لتفماق‬ ‫السلم‪ .‬و ثكانت هذه المحادثات نارجحة على الصعيد التقني ‪ ،‬لكنها فشلت في الحصول على الدعم السياسي الكممافي‪ .‬ال ان العممداء‬ ‫دبين سوريا واسرائيل زاد في أعقاب قيام اسرائيل دبتنفيذ عملية دبستان يوم ‪ 6‬سبتمبر ‪.2007‬حيث قصفت اسممرائيل مجمعمما شمممال‬ ‫سورية قرب دير الزور الذي ثكان يشتبه في عقد مواد نووية من ثكوريمما الشمممالية‪ .‬فممي عممام ‪ 2008‬اثكممد الرئيممس السمموري دبشممار‬ ‫السد ان المحادثات مع اسرائيل قد استؤنفت من خلل طرف ثالث‪ .‬واثكدت ايضا وزيممرة المغممتردبين دبثينممة شممعبان ان اسممرائيل‬ ‫مستعدة للتخلي عن هضبة الجولن‪.‬‬

‫‪http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_relations_of_Syria#Israel‬‬

‫)‪(1‬‬

‫مستقبل العلقات المريكية السورية‬ ‫خلل إدارة دبوش قامت الوليات المتحدة دباتباع سياسة العزم دبالضغط علي سوريا حتى تحصل علي مبتغاها لرجبارها علي قطع‬ ‫علقتها مع إيران والكف عن دعم المنظمات الرهادبية ثكحزب ا وتكون في صفها دبخصوص العراق‪.‬‬ ‫ثكان عزل سوريا سلحا اذو حدين فسوريا نجحت في منع انتخاب رئيس لبناني رجديد مما وضع السياسة اللبنانية في حممرج مفيممدة‬ ‫دبذلك حلفائها المحليين حزب ا ودبعض الفصائل المسيحية وقد سهلت تسليح حزب ا ما قبل مسممتويات حممرب ‪ 2006‬ولتممزال‬

‫توفر ملاذا آمنا ودعم لحماس ومنظمة الجهاد السلمي والمجموعات الرهادبية الفلسطينية التي تعارض دبعنف علمية السلم في‬ ‫آنا دبوليس‪.‬‬ ‫من ناحية أخرى فإن سوريا تتعاون مع حكومة خاصة في لبنان ثكما ضعف دعمها للمتمرديممن العراقييممن وصممار الرئيممس السممد‬ ‫أثكثر حرصا علي تحقيق سلم مع إسرائيل وإرسال وفد رسمي إلي مؤتمر آنا دبوليس للسلم ثكما أنه حريص علي عممدم إثممارة أي‬ ‫نزاع مع إسرائيل ول حتى دبالرد علي الغارة السرائيلية علي ما يبدو أنه منشأة نووية سورية سرية ‪(1).‬‬ ‫ولكن دبسبب مجئ الدراة الجديدة فقد صار اتباع سياسة رجديدة محل خلف ونزاع حيث أن طريقمة رجديمدة قمد تمؤدي إلمي علقمة‬ ‫أثكثر انتارجية ومساعدة سوريا علي التحول من وضع المارقة وهذه السياسة الجديدة يجب أن تتبع لسببين رئيسين‪:‬‬ ‫اهتمام الحكومة السرائيلية دبالدخول مع سوريا في مفاوضات سلمية ولكن السد يرفض حتى تشترك الوليات المتحدة‬ ‫‪.1‬‬ ‫في هذه المفاوضات‪.‬‬ ‫إن سوريا تمد قناة التواصممل للتممأثير اليرانمي فمي لبنممان والحممدود الفلسمطينية لممذلك فمإن تقيممد هممذا المممر يعممد ضمردبة‬ ‫‪.2‬‬ ‫للستراتيجية اليرانية الذي يحتل المرتبة الولي للرجندة المريكية‪(2).‬‬ ‫ولكن دبالرغم من هذا فإنه يورجد خلف أخر أنه لو لم تتبع سوريا ما تطلبه الوليات المتحدة وتقع مصلحتها في العتبار فممإن هممذا‬ ‫يدل علي أن سياسة العزل غير ثكافية ويجب فرض حصارات أثكثر ووضع سياسة أشد حزماا‪.‬‬ ‫فهل ستنضم هذه الحصارات علي تصدير الطعممام والممدواء أم هممل سممينفذ أودباممما مما وعممد دبممه ويقمموم دبتطممبيق العلقممات السمورية‬ ‫المريكية ؟!‬ ‫‪http://www.brookings.edu/testimony/2008/0424_syria_indyk.aspx‬‬

‫)‪(1‬‬

‫‪IBID‬‬

‫)‪(2‬‬

MAC 2010…

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