MAC'16 Background Paper by MACani Magazine

The 15th Model of American Congress

Congressional Research Service Report

The 15th Model American Congress

Congressional Research Service Report Inspire, Induce, Impact

The 15th Model of American Congress

Congressional Research Service Report

The 15th Model of American Congress

Congressional Research Service Report

Table of Contents Preamble ........................................................................................................................................ 4

Rules of Procedures ...................................................................................................................... 6

Committee on Foreign Relations ............................................................................................... 12 First Topic: Syria ................................................................................................................... 15 Second Topic: North Korea ................................................................................................... 35 Third Topic: Eastern Ukraine ................................................................................................ 55

Committee on Finance ................................................................................................................ 64 First Topic: Minimum Wage ................................................................................................. 66 Second Topic: Cuban Embargo ............................................................................................. 79 Third Topic: Student Loans ................................................................................................... 93

Committee on the Judiciary ..................................................................................................... 106 First Topic: Bio Ethics......................................................................................................... 108 Second Topic: Death Penalty .............................................................................................. 128 Third Topic: Prostitution ..................................................................................................... 137

Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs ............................................ 144 First Topic: Weapons of Mass Destruction ......................................................................... 146 Second Topic: Domestic Terrorism..................................................................................... 161

Sub-Committee on Near Eastern and South and Central Asian Affairs and Counterterrorism ...................................................................................................................... 196

The 15th Model of American Congress

Congressional Research Service Report

Preamble Fifteen years have passed since the initiation of MAC, fifteen years of embracing youths with diverse ideologies, spreading awareness and serving the community. Over the years, many people have wondered how we manage to be among the leading student organizations. The answer, however, is quiet simple: MAC has always been the place of dedicated, diverse, passion driven youths, who believe that changing the world is possible, and actually do change the world. Our ultimate success is when those potentials brought up, adding to our community, and strengthening the Egyptian society. As the value of knowledge lies in passing it to future generations, the day knowledge stops at one person is the day it dies. Egypt has passed through several hardships over the past decades, which showed how the development of the Egyptian society requires politically aware youth, which is what MAC so relentlessly strives for. Through understanding policy making within the sophisticated legislative institution of the American Congress, MACâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s vision to build a politically aware, skillful and professional generation to be well prepared to shape the future of Egypt. For this value to be transmitted to the delegates, a great work is exerted by a team of dedicated secretariats, who themselves are learning and simulating how to be part of an Institution, how to work, co-operate, face difficulties, live progress, and the most important thing is how to succeed together, by enduring different hardships and dedicating their time and effort to deliver the vision of MAC. This publication is dedicated to every person who has been part of MAC, who allowed us to be in this position after fifteen years. Nevertheless, MAC is grateful to its team of dedicated staff, who had saved no effort to produce this paper. To the honorable delegates of MACâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;16, here is your time to experience the political life, empower yourself with all necessary skills, act and debate as a decision maker, benefit from your experience and pass it to others; inspire, induce and impact.

Dedications To MACâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;16 Secretariats team, for their trust, hard work and gigantic effort, for the sleepless nights they have spent preparing this paper, for the sincere effort of passing on knowledge. For the team that showed complete support, for putting MAC above all else, for their desire to reach perfectionism and nothing else, you have made this year remarkable. Assem Abdelwahab President Pro-Tempore To Assem Abdelwahab, For being an ever-growing source of inspiration, for showing the true meaning of dedication, for teaching each one of us a different lesson, for your debates, for your lectures, for all the hours we have spent, for all the hours you have spent, for all the hardships, for all the conflicts, and for being a source of pain in our lives. Thank you. Farah Bahgat, Deputy Head Academic Committee 4

15th Model of American Congress

Congressional Research Service Report

The 15th Model American Congress

President Rana El Behairy

Higher Representative Amennah Atef

President Pro-tempore Assem Abdelwahab

Head of Organizing Committee Mostafa Ayman

Deputy Head of the Academic Committee

Deputy Head of the Organizing Committee

Farah Bahgat

Hossam Hamdi Muhammad Shaarawi

Prepared and Supervised By: Assem Abdelwahab

Farah Bahgat

Special thanks goes to the Committee on Coordination for its hard work and dedication throughout the year and particularly during the production of this publication

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Congressional Research Service Report

The 15th Model American Congress Rules of Procedures Section I: Parliamentary Authority 1. These rules apply to all committees of The Model of American Congress (MAC), as well as to all of its floor sessions. 2. Procedures not covered by these rules may be decided in accordance with the standing rules of the U.S. Senate and MAC Constitution. However, in case of conflict, MAC rules take precedence. 3. MAC Chair is the final arbiter on questions of procedure and may, in the interests of debate and order, amend these rules at his or her discretion.

Section II: Senate Members and Officers First: The Presiding Officer 1. The presiding officer of each congressional body is selected by the MAC staff in advance of the Congress. The presiding officer in the Senate is the President; in committee, it is the Chair. 2. The presiding officer has the usual power and duties of presiding officers, including: 1. To declare the opening and closing of each session of the body, 2. To recognize all speakers, 3. To decide all points of order and procedural questions, 4. To conduct votes and announce their results, 5. To preserve order and decorum. 3. If for any reason the presiding officer must temporarily relinquish the Chair, he or she will appoint another staff member as a replacement Chair. The temporary Chair will preside until the return of the regular presiding officer, who will resume his or her position with the associated powers and duties. Second: the duties of the Vice-Chair shall be: - To chair the committee during chairman/ladyâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s absence or when the latter yields the floor to him. - To conduct the roll call at the beginning of each session. - To assist in the counting of the votes. - To make sure that there is a quorum present at all times during which business is being transacted. Third: the duties of the Ranking Member shall be: - To advise the Chairman/lady on the decision of any parliamentary questions. - To direct the academic flow of the debate. - To act as source of all academic materials that needed by the senators during the congressional meetings.

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Congressional Research Service Report

- To make sure that the committee bills are issued according to all technical and legal specifications. - To read all bills. Fourth: the duties of the Party Consultant shall be: - To arrange each and every party factions and wings. - To work on the formulation of the party statement. - To assist the Ranking Member in providing the Academic materials. - To act as source of information with regard to party stances. - To read all amendments. Fifth: the duties of the Senators shall be: - To Work on the discussed committee topics, as well as issuing a bill on the discussed topics to be taken to the senate floor. - To debate and negotiate according to their stances. - To give speeches on the floor day to convince other senators with their stances. - To assist the Chairman/lady in maintaining order and decorum. Sixth, the duties of the Lobbyists shall be: - To work on the discussed committee topics. - To lobby for or against the committee bills in the other committees and in the floor. - To provide the senators with the academic materials and any technical or legal support, in a way that serves his/her interests. - To assist the Chairman/lady in maintaining order and decorum.

Section III: Standing Committees - There shall be five standing committees. - There shall be one chairman/lady and 20 senators for each standing committee. - The committee on Rules and Administration shall consist of the Model of American Congress President Pro-Tempore, Deputy Head of the Academic Committee and the Chairmen/ladies of the five committees.

Section IV: Agenda and Order of Business - The agenda of the Senate floor and each of the standing committees shall be drawn up in advance of their respective sessions. - The Vice Chairman shall see that each member of the committee has received a copy of the agenda. - Bills passed in the committee shall be forwarded to the Committee on Rules and Administration, where they will be placed on the agenda of the Senate floor. - In any committee, the main sponsor of the bill may make any changes in the bill by arranging with the Ranking Member before the mark-up session.

15th Model of American Congress

Congressional Research Service Report

Section V: Rules of Order 1. Only those points listed below will be recognized at The Model of American Congress. 2. Points are not debatable, they do not require a second, and the Chair's decision is final. 3. The order of precedence of the points is shown, in ascending order. When a point is pending, only points with a higher number, as shown below, are in order. 4. Points do not automatically take precedence over motions. The Chair will recognize delegates rising to points, at his or her discretion. POINT OF PERSONAL PRIVILEGE A delegate may raise a point of personal privilege whenever there‘s a request concerning his personal rights or the rights of the entire assembly. For example, it can be used to ask that a senator raises his voice, to open the window…etc. Note: A point of personal privilege can only be raised when another delegates has the floor. POINT OF ORDER A point of order is used to raise other motions (including the suspension of rules, recess/adjournment and acclamation). Other purposes where a point of order is used are: caucuses, mark up sessions and congressional hearings. They require a 2/3 majority vote to pass. ACCLAMATION An acclamation preserves the bill before introducing any amendments so that in the case that the amended bill fails to pass, the original bill automatically proceeds to the floor. It requires a simple majority vote to pass. OBJECTION TO CONSIDERATION: (Only active on floor day) A bill may be denied consideration by passage of this motion. The motion must be made immediately after the bill or resolution is moved. Grounds for the objections must be specified- for example, the bill is unconstitutional, clearly frivolous, or outside the jurisdiction of the legislative body in which proposed. If the presiding officer permits, the objector and the sponsor of the bill may briefly (for one-minute) state their positions. A 2/3 vote is required to sustain the objection. SUSPENSION OF RULES This motion suspends the rules of the assembly for a specific purpose and for a specific period. Normally, this is designed to allow the lobbyists to partake in the debate. It requires a simple majority vote to pass. “I’d like to raise a motion to suspend the rules for…” RECESS/ADJOURNMENT A senator may call for a recess/adjournment of any meeting. A recess is meant for a specific period during the day (ex: coffee break) while an adjournment is done at the end of each day and at the end of the floor. It requires a simple majority vote to pass. “I’d like to raise a motion to adjourn this meeting until tomorrow” “I’d like to raise a motion to move to a recess for one hour”

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RESERVE A POINT OF ORDER This motion is used while amendments are being introduced to the bill. After an amendment is read, the delegate who presented this amendment has the right to ―reserve a point of order‖ and clarify the amendment for 1 minute.

Section VI: Voting - Voting on any motion consists of yelling out ayes and nays on behalf of the senators, if the result is unclear then voting is done by show of hands. If this proves to be uncertain as well; then a roll call is taken. - Both the simple majority vote and the 2/3 vote shall consist of the number of senators present. - Once voting has begun, all motions are out of order. - Abstentions are to be allowed only in the voting on the bill and amendments. It‘s not permitted in voting on any motion.

Section VII: Debate Flow The Congressional Committee meetings: Chairman/lady: The Committee will come to order. We are meeting today to consider our congressional agenda the "….”, the "….", and the "…." Chairman/lady: <Opening statement> I will now yield the floor to the honourable Ranking Member to give his/her opening statements and read the congressional agenda. Ranking member: Thanks honourable Chair, <opening statement> and then reading the congressional agenda Thanks honourable chair. Chairman/lady: Thanks to the honourable Ranking Member. With a quorum (10) being present, the committee will now proceed the consideration of the declared agenda for this congressional meeting, and now the floor will be yielded to the Vice Chairman/lady to have the roll call, senators attending should reply as present. The Vice Chair: Thanks honourable chair, <Conducts roll call>, thanks honourable Chair. Chairman/lady: The honourable senator…..of….. Is recognized for two minutes for your opening statement Chairman/lady: Other members may submit opening statements comments for the record. (The opening statements start by the leader of the majority party and his team then the leader of the minority party and his team) Chairman/lady: Honourable senators wishing to speak should raise their placards high and keep them high. Chairman/lady: The honourable senator…of….. is recognized for two minutes. Senator: Thanks honourable chair,<speech for two minutes> thanks honourable chair. Raising a Point of Order Senator: Point of Order! Chairman/lady: Honourable senator….of……what's your point? Senator: I'd like to raise a motion to move to a hearing session for…minutes. Chairman/lady: Honourable senator that’s in order, there’s a motion on the floor to move to a hearing session for…Those in favour say "aye" <pause> those against say "nay" <pause>

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Congressional Research Service Report

(If only nays or ayes are heard then the voting had a consensus result whether yes or no. But the case that both nays and ayes are heard then a raising hands motion takes place) Chairman/lady: With…ayes and…nays, this motion clearly passes/fails. The Mark up Session: Chairman/lady: The Committee will come to order. We are meeting today to consider S.111 the"…..bill title…..", a bill to….. Ranking member: Clarifying statement. Chairman/lady: With a quorum (10) being present, the committee will now proceed to the consideration of S111 the "…..bill title….” I'll now yield the floor to the ranking member to read the bill. Ranking member: <Reads the bill>. Thanks honourable chair. Bill Acclimation Senator: Point of order. Chairman: Honourable….of……what's your point? Senator: I’d like to raise a motion to move to an acclamation procedure on this bill. Chairman/lady: Honourable senator that’s in order, there is a motion on the floor to move to an acclamation procedure on this bill. Those in favour say "aye" <pause> those opposed say "nay" <pause> Chairman/lady: With…ayes and…nays, this motion clearly passes/fails. Bill Amendment Chairman/lady: Now the floor will be opened for 10 minutes for having amendments, the party consultant will record the amendments. <Senators send amendments> Chairman/lady: The time for recording S111 amendments has elapsed, now the floor will be yield to the honourable party consultant to read the first amendment. Party consultant: Thank you honourable chair. < Reads the amendment> Thank you honourable chair. Note: After finishing reading the amendment if the member raised "reserve a point of order" at this time then he\she would be recognized for 1 minute. Chairman/lady: Honourable Senator you‘re recognized for 1minute in the support of the amendment. Senator: <Explains the amendment> Chairman/lady: Honourable Senator your time has expired, since there is no further discussion, the question is on agreeing to the amendment offered by the honourable Senator. Those in favour say "aye"<pause>, those opposed say "nay" <pause> Chairman/lady: With…ayes and…nays, this amendment clearly passes/fails/ And so on the amendments are discussed and voted on. Voting on the Bill Chairman/lady: Hearing no further amendments, the question now occurs on the adoption of the amended bill. All those in favour say "aye"<pause> all those opposed say "nay"<pause> Chairman: With…ayes and…nays, this bill clearly passes/fails. Recess/adjournment Senator: Point of Order. Chairman/lady: Honourable….of……what's your point? Senator: ―I move that we recess until…. ”or “I move that we adjourn” Chairman/lady: Honourable senator that’s in order, there is a motion on the floor to adjourn/recess for…..Those in favour say "aye" <pause>

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Congressional Research Service Report

those opposed say "nay" <pause> Chairman/lady: With…ayes and…nays, this motion clearly passes/fails. Section VIII: The Floor - The floor of MAC will involve the 100 senator as speakers, while the secretariats and the lobbyists are not recognized. However, the lobbyists conduct their task informally. - Bills pass by simple majority, whereas treaties require a 2/3 vote. - All the committees‘ rules and motions are in order.

15th Model of American Congress

Congressional Research Service Report

Committee on Foreign Relations

Congressional Research Service Report Prepared By: Chairman Islam El-Sherif Ranking Member Omar Saleh

Vice-Chairlady Shahenda El-Naggar Party Consultant Jidaa Muhammed

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Congressional Research Service Report

“A country that demands moral perfection in its foreign policy will achieve neither perfection nor security” -

Henry Kissinger

“We should never negotiate out of fear, but we should never fear to negotiate.” -

Kennedy

“Only if we act greatly in meeting our responsibilities abroad will we remain a great nation, and only if we remain a great nation will we act greatly in meeting our challenges at home” -

Richard Nixon

“No foreign policy - no matter how ingenious - has any chance of success if it is born in the minds of a few and carried in the hearts of none”. -

Henry A. Kissinger

“Human rights are the soul of our foreign policy, because human rights is the very soul of our sense of nationhood.” -

Jimmy Carter

To those who inspired this publication, who showed bravery, sacrifice and determination. To the heroically fighting Syrians, to the isolated yet unforgotten North Koreans and to the self-determined people of Ukraine. To the shared morals and values of loyalty, commitment and mutual respect. To every hardship and tribulation beaten by unbelievable tenacity and incomparable unity. To this committee’s legacy that lived long on and to its bright future. Most importantly to the most exceptional Delegates of Committee on Foreign Relations. Special We Are! CFR’16 Secretariats Team

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Congressional Research Service Report

About the Committee History The Senate Foreign Relations Committee was established in 1816 as one of the original ten standing committees of the Senate. Throughout its history, the committee has been instrumental in developing and influencing United States foreign policy, at different times supporting and opposing the policies of presidents and secretaries of state. The committee has considered, debated, and reported important treaties and legislation, ranging from the purchase of Alaska in 1867 to the establishment of the United Nations in 1945.

Jurisdiction The Committee holds jurisdiction over all diplomatic nominations. Through these powers, the committee has helped shape foreign policy of broad significance, in matters of war and peace and international relations. Members of the committee have assisted in the negotiation of treaties, and at times have helped to defeat treaties they felt were not in the national interest. Subcommittees: 1. Subcommittee on African affairs. 2. Subcommittee on East Asian and Specific Affairs. 3. Subcommittee on European Affairs. 4. Subcommittee on international development and foreign assistance, economic affairs and international environmental protection. 5. Subcommittee on international operations and organizations, human rights, democracy and global women's issues. 6. Subcommittee on Near Eastern and South and Central Asian affairs. 7. Subcommittee on Western hemisphere, Peace Corps and global narcotics affairs.

Chairman Bob Corker

Ranking Member Ben Cardin

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First topic: Syria

Historical Background ......................................................................... 17

II.

Syrian Conflict Parties......................................................................... 19  Syrian Government ........................................................................... a. Assad‘s military strength ........................................................ b. Assad‘s military strategy ........................................................ c. On-the-Ground allies ..............................................................  Syrian Rebels a. Free Syrian Army.................................................................... b. Islamic Front ........................................................................... c. Al-Nusra Front ........................................................................  ISIS.................................................................................................... a. Its Origins: (History & Ideology) .......................................... b. Funding and Equipment..........................................................  Kurds .................................................................................................

III.

Foreign Intervention in Syria.............................................................. 28  The Russian Intervention: .................................................................  The Chinese Intervention ..................................................................  The Lebanese Intervention ................................................................  The Iranian Intervention ...................................................................  The Turkish Intervention...................................................................  United States Intervention and the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS

IV.

Humanitarian Crisis in Syria .............................................................. 32  Deaths ..........................................................................................  Detainees ......................................................................................  Usage of Chemical Weapons .......................................................  Refugees.......................................................................................

Future Scenarios................................................................................... 34

15th Model of American Congress

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Syria The Syrian Arab Republic emerged as an independent country during the Second World War, after a period of French rule and nationalist unrest in the wake of the First World War. Prior to that, the territory that now comprises Syria was administered by the Ottoman Empire and had earlier been an important stage for major events in the founding of Christianity and Islam, Muslim-Christian battles during the Crusades, and the repulsion of the Mongol invasion of the Middle East. The countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s strategic, central location made it a venue for superpower and regional competition during the Cold War era, and its current religious, ethnic, political, economic, and environmental challenges mirror those of some other countries in the Middle East.

The Syrian population includes different ethnic and religious groups. For years, the Assad regimeâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s political control is believed to have prevented these differences from playing an overtly divisive role in political or social life. A majority of Syrians, roughly 90% of the population, are ethnic Arabs; however, the country contains small ethnic minorities, notably Kurds, the countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s largest distinct

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ethnic/linguistic minority (7%-10% of the total population. In addition to the majority Sunni Muslims, who comprise over 70% of the population, Syria contains several religious sectarian minorities, including three smaller Muslim sects (Alawites, Druze, and Ismailis) and several Christian denominations. The Assad family are members of the minority Alawite sect (roughly 12% of the population), which has its roots in Shiite Islam. Despite the secular nature of the ruling Baath party, religious sects have been important to some Syrians as symbols of group identity and determinants of political orientation. The Asads and the Baath party have cultivated Alawites as a key base of support, and elite security forces have long been led in large part by Alawites, although some officers and most rank and file military personnel have been drawn from the majority Sunni Arab population and other minority groups. The government suppressed an armed uprising led by the Sunni Islamist Muslim Brotherhood in the early 1980s, killing thousands of Sunni Muslims.

Historical Background After the success of the Correction Movement Revolution in 1970, Hafez El-Assad took over the authority firstly as a Prime Minister then as a President in 1971 as the Baath‘s only candidate. In his early ruling years, his aim was being perceived as the people‘s leader who accepts the various ideologies and religions under the umbrella of Democracy. 1 Implementing his policy included the appointment of Sunni and Christian officials in his government and the representation of Sunnis in the People‘s assembly, which also included some members of apparent nationalist and socialist parties functioning in accordance with the Baath‘s policy. Afterwards, he ignited the anger of Sunnis when he introduced an article in the constitution which allows non-Muslims to apply for presidency. He started to get rid of his enemies and opposition including eliminating Sunnis. Alawites, other Shi‘a and Christians who pledged loyalty to the regime were favorites to gain power and benefits from his rule. He ruled the country using the emergency law applying restrictions to media and journalism. 2 Hafez Al Assad escaped assassination in 1980 and, in return, his brother led troops to kill about 250 inmates in Palmyra and bombed Hama, a rebellious city, killing more than 10000 persons. The following years witnessed torturing and arresting many opposition figures especially from the Muslim Brotherhood. Hafez‘s era witnessed many economic setbacks. In the 1980s, Syria witnessed a food shortage crisis parallel to the embroilment of several High-ranked officials in corruption. A decrease in the oil prices in 1998 put the government in a tight corner. It was relieved after an increase in early 1999 which witnessed a drought.3 4

http://www.britannica.com/biography/Hafiz-al-Assad http://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/2000/jun/15/guardianweekly.guardianweekly1 3 http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2011/10/201110279954762656.html 4 https://www.hrw.org/reports/1996/Syria2.htm 2

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After the death of Hafez El-Assad on June 10, 2000, his son, Bashar, took over the presidency after the Syrian parliament lowered the minimum age for presidential candidates from 40 to 34, so that Bashar could be eligible for the office. Influenced by his western education and lifestyle, Bashar initially seemed eager to implement a cultural revolution in Syria. He stated early on that ―Democracy is a tool to better life‖, but he also added that democracy couldn`t be rushed in Syria. He promised to reform political and economic corruptions. After his first year as president, many of Bashar`s promised economic reforms had not materialized. The largely corrupt government bureaucracy made it difficult for a private sector to emerge, and Bashar seemed incapable of making the necessary systematic changes that would move Syria and its people into the 21st century ―as he promised‖. In addition economy continued recession reaching a budget deficit of 122 Billion Lira in 2009.5 6 In addition, for nearly a decade, Bashar suppressed internal dissention. In 2006, Syria expanded its use of travel bans against dissidents, preventing many from entering or leaving the country. In 2007, the Syrian Parliament passed a law requiring all comments on chat forums to be posted publicly. In 2008, and again in 2011, social media sites such as YouTube and Facebook were blocked. Local and International Human rights groups have reported that political opponents of Bashar al-Assad are routinely tortured, imprisoned and killed.7 Following successful regime change in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, protests began in Syria on January 26, 2011, demanding political reforms, a reinstatement of civil rights and an end to the state of emergency, which had been in place since 1963. The government forces brutal response led to the composition of the Free Syrian Army and other rebel groups. The aggression continued between the two sides allowing more sides including The Islamic State (IS) to get involved, leading the Arab League (AL) and United Nations (UN) to intervene in order to put a peaceful solution to the crisis that has evolved from peaceful demonstrations into a full-scale civil war. The UN and the AL initiatives: The Arab League initiated a conversation with the two sides between November 2011 and January 2012. The AL sent a monitoring mission to Syria in December 2011 at the consent of the Syrian government which agreed to the AL initiative. The mission ended On January 28th, 2011 after the violence continued.8

http://www.britannica.com/biography/Bashar-al-Assad http://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/alarabiya-studies/2013/04/01/Syria-s-frail-economy-before-and-after-therevolution.html 7 http://www.biography.com/people/bashar-al-assad-20878575#presidency 6

http://www.columbia.edu/~hauben/Report_of_Arab_League_Observer_Mission.pdf

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Later in March 2012, Kofi Annan (Previous UN Secretary General) was appointed as a special UNAL envoy to Syria to convince both parties to cease fire. On April 12th, 2012, Annan stated that both sides agreed to the initiative which the UN announced it was violated by May 1st of the same year.9 10 The UN backed the Geneva II Middle East Peace Conference which aimed at initiating talks about a transitional government. The negotiations which were led by Lakhdar Brahimi, special UN envoy to Syria, ended in failure on January 31st, 2014.11 In July 2015, Staffan de Mistura, a special UN Peace envoy, announced plans for new proposals to end the war in Syria.12 With the international community failure to put a peaceful solution for this situation, weakness and division in the opposition had led to the intervention of foreign entities. Assad regime was backed by Shia allies Hezbollah and Iran, as well as Russia and China, and on the other hand the Sunni rebels are supported by the Islamist rulers of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, as well as the U.S., France, Britain and other Countries. Hence, the Syrian Conflict evolved from an internal civil war into a proxy war.

Syrian Conflict Parties: A. Syrian Government:

Led by Bashar Al-Assad‘s – acting as the commander in chief - the Syrian Armed Forces are the military forces of Syria. They consist of the Syrian Arab Army, Syrian Arab Navy, Syrian Arab Air Force, Syrian Arab Air Defense Force and several paramilitary forces. Since the beginning of the civil war, the Armed Forces have been sent to fight the insurgents. Many human rights groups claim that the majority of abuses occurred in Syria during the war have been committed by the Syrian government's forces, and UN investigations - along with Human Rights Watch (HRW) - have reported that the government‘s abuses are the greatest in both gravity and

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=41646#.Vls4o3YrLIU http://www.un.org/press/en/2012/sc10609.doc.htm 11 http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/15/syria-peace-talks-break-up-geneva 12 http://www.un.org/undpa/speeches-statements/29072015/syria 10

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scale.13 However, the Syrian authorities deny these accusations and claim that insurgent armed groups with foreign aid are behind most of the abuses.14 Assad’s Military strength As of mid-2015, U.S. defense official described Syrian armed forces as ―much weakened‖. About 45,000 members of the armed forces have been killed during the civil war. Thousands more have defected and others fled away, with overall force strength having been halved by some estimates from 250,000 to 125,000 troops. Syrian air force has preserved its monopoly on operation in Syrian air space in relation to rebel forces, although opposition groups periodically shoot down aircrafts and US-led coalition air forces now operate inside Syria. Additionally, Assad‘s government, with Iranian support, organized informal pro-government popular militia into units of the paramilitary national defense forces, which have operated at the direction of the armed forces to clear and hold government-controlled terrain.15 In a speech in July 2015, Assad said ―There is a lack of human resources, everything is available for the army but there is a shortfall in human capacity‖ he continued ―that doesn`t mean we can talk about collapse, we will resist, the armed forces are capable of defending the motherland.‖16 Assad‘s manpower issue led him to resort into a special strategy in order to be able to strengthen his rule in Syria. Assad`s Military Strategy The Assad regime prioritizes maintaining Syrian Armed Forces presence throughout Syria in order to frame its claim to a united post-war Syrian state. President Assad explicitly outlined his strategy in his January 2015 interview with Foreign Affairs, stating: ―If you look at a military map now, the Syrian army exists in every corner. Not every place; by every corner, I mean north, south, east, west, and between. If you didn‘t believe in a unified Syria, that Syria can go back to its previous position, you wouldn‘t send the army there as a government.‖ The strategy of an ―army in all corners‖ is designed to prevent a partitioned Syria. The existence of Syrian Armed Forces formations across Syria also provides President Assad with a political narrative as the leader of a sovereign and undivided country, as he himself claimed. The major risk that faces this strategy is that limited options for reinforcement and resupply can leave their units isolated and vulnerable in the face of coordinated offensives. This risk was brutally

"Torture Archipelago: Arbitrary Arrests, Torture and Enforced Disappearances in Syria's Underground Prisons since March 2011" (PDF). Human Rights Watch. July 2012 14 "UPDATE 4-Syrian govt forces, rebels committing war crimes -U.N.". Reuters. 15 https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33487.pdf 16 http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/07/syria-assad-speech-150726091936884.html

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demonstrated in July and August 2014 when IS militants overran a series of holdout regime military bases in Ar-Raqqa and Hasaka Provinces, capturing and executing hundreds of Pro-Assad soldiers. Nevertheless, these strongholds frequently withstand enemy attacks, providing the Assad regime with staying power at little cost.17 On-the-Ground Allies: Hezbollah: Since 2013, Hezbollah â&#x20AC;&#x201C; the Shià Islamist militant group and political party based in South Lebanon â&#x20AC;&#x201C; worked with the Syrian military to protect regime supply lines by helping to clear rebel-held towns. In addition to conducting military operation, Hezbollah trained Syrian armed forces to improve their capacity to hold cleared terrain. Hezbollah also trained and advised the Syrian military and often embedded with Syrian units. It is estimated that Hezbollah has maintained from 6,000 to 8,000 fighters in Syria and Iraq by June 2015. Iraqi and other Shià militias: Analysts estimate that there are between 5,000 and 10,000 Shiites fighting in Syria on behalf of the Syrian government, some members identify their objective as the defense of Shia holy sites. Other reports describe these groups as assuming a broad operational role. However, it is difficult to assess the motivations of individual Shiite foreign fighters in Syria or determine whether Assadâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s survival is their primary goal. Reports suggest that Iraqi Shià fighters receive training in Iran before being flown in small batches into Syria and that they work closely with Hezbollah. However, it is unclear who exercises command or control over these militias.18

http://www.businessinsider.com/this-is-the-assad-regimes-military-strategy-for-winning-the-syrian-civil-war-2015-4

https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33487.pdf

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B. Syrian Rebels:

It is estimated that there are as many as 1,000 armed opposition groups in Syria, commanding an estimated 100,000 fighters. Many of the groups are small, unorganized and operate on a local level, but a number have emerged as powerful forces with affiliates across the country or formed alliances with other groups that share a similar agenda. The most organized ones are:  Free Syrian Army (FSA): The Free Syrian Army (FSA) was formed in August 2011 by army defectors intent on deposing Assad. Under Saudi and Qatari pressure to form a unified command, the FSA formed the Supreme Military Council (SMC), selecting Brigadier General Salim Idriss as top commander in December 2012.19 The SMC's chief-of-staff, Gen Idris, wanted it to be a more moderate and stronger alternative to the jihadist rebel groups in Syria. The National Coalition – the most recognizable representative of the Syrian opposition - describes Gen Idris as the commander of the FSA;20 However observers have said the FSA is simply a loose network of brigades rather than a unified fighting force. Brigades supposedly reports through the chain of command to Gen Idris, but he is yet to assert operational control and serves more as a spokesman and conduit for foreign funding and arms shipments. SMC-aligned brigades retain separate identities, agendas and commands. Some work with hard-line Islamist groups that alarm the West, such as Ahrar al-Sham, and al-Qaeda-linked jihadists.21  Islamic Front: In November 2013, seven Islamist groups - Harakat Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiyya, Jaysh al-Islam, Suqour al-Sham, Liwa al-Tawhid, Liwa al-Haqq, Ansar al-Sham and the Kurdish Islamic Front declared that they were forming ―the largest rebel alliance yet‖ in the 33-month conflict, with an estimated 45,000 fighters. The Islamic Front released its charter on the Internet in late November 19

http://www.cfr.org/syria/syrias-crisis-global-response/p28402 http://en.etilaf.org/coalition-components/supreme-military-council-of-the-free-syrian-army.html 21 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24403003 20

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2013, outlining its aims and objectives. The Islamic Front's charter rejects the concepts of representative democracy and secularism, instead, seeking to establish an Islamic state ruled by a Majlis-ash-Shura and implementing sharia. It acknowledges the ethnic and religious minorities that live in Syria, while also welcoming the foreign fighters who have joined the anti-Assad forces and rejecting non-military means of ending the civil war.22 Analysts predicted that the move would undermine the SMC, and in December 2013 the front announced that it had withdrawn from the SMC's command. Days later, the Islamic Front seized the FSA headquarters, along with key supply warehouses in Atmeh, as well as the nearby border crossing with Turkey at Bab al-Hawa. FSA Chief-of-Staff Brigadier General Salim Idris fled via Turkey to Doha, Qatar, during the assault, however, the FSA denied that Idris had left Syria. This led the US and UK to suspend ―non-lethal‖ assistance for rebel groups in northern Syria. The Islamic Front does not include al-Qaeda affiliates like the Islamic State (IS) and al-Nusra Front, but its charter welcomes foreign fighters, as ―brothers who supported us in jihad‖, suggesting it is willing to co-operate with them.23

 Al-Nusra Front: This Al-Qaeda-aligned Salafi-Jihadist emerged in late 2011 and since has earned reputation as a ―formidable fighting force‖, attracting thousands of recruits, performing some social services, and attacking other opposition forces it deems hostile to its goals. The U.S. designated it a Foreign Terrorist Organization in 2012. Al Nusra has played a leading role in opposition offensives in 2015 in Northwest Syria. Its leader, Abu-Muhammad Al-Joulani, remains hostile to the Islamic State and to the United States. In masked interviews during 2015 he has offered conditional safety under Islamic law to Syrian minorities and supporters of Assad, if they end practices that Nusra considers deviant, and accept religious rule.24

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/new-rebel-alliance-wants-syria-as-islamicstate.aspx?pageID=238&nID=58597&NewsCatID=352 23 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24403003 24 https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33487.pdf

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 C. The Islamic State:

1) Its origins: (History& Ideology): Being perceived as one of the most brutal insurgent groups in the Middle East, The Islamic State (IS) – formerly known as Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and Da’esh – is considered the offspring of the continuous conflicts and wars in this region.25 Jamat Al-Tawheed wal-Jihad (JTJ):

Emerging in 2013, IS has passed by different stages and appeared under various names since the early 21st century. A Jordanian man went to Afghanistan in the late 1990s, fought against the Soviet Union and later met Osama Ben Laden, but refused to join Al-Qaeda, as he dreamt of initiating his own state. After the fall of Taliban in 2001, this person, claiming to be called ―Al-Ghareeb‖, has shown up in Iraq unnoticed, until the Bush administration announced Abu-Mussaab Al-Zarqawi was there undercover and was used as an evidence for the presence of Al-Qaeda in Iraq.26 Later, Al-Zarqawi announced the creation of Jama‘at Al-Tawheed wal-Jihad (JTJ) which was responsible for several killings and bombings in Iraq, then remarking the first phase of the evolution of IS. Al-Zarqawi was believed to be as brutal as Al-Qaeda, however, he directed his group‘s efforts not only to nonMuslims but also to other Islamic doctrines as Shiites, who were rarely targeted by Ben Laden. Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI):

In October 2004, Zarqawi announced his allegiance to Bin Laden, after talks that lasted 8 months. JTJ‘s name changed to be ―Al-Qaeda in Iraq‖ (AQI), but afterwards Al-Qaeda, represented by Ayman Al-Zawahiri, showed its objection to the excessive brutality of its branch in Iraq and his operations against the Shi‘a, all which was ignored by Al-Zarqawi.27 Al-Zarqawi started to force his Sharia interpretation into action in terms of different aspects of life including clothing and punishments. His aspirations came to an end when the U.S. airstrikes bombed his hideout ending his life.

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/R43612.pdf http://www.exposingtruth.com/isis-origins/ 27 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alastair-crooke/isis-wahhabism-saudi-arabia_b_5717157.html 26

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Islamic State in Iraq (ISI):

After the death of Al-Zarqawi in June 2006, Al-Qaeda announced his successor to be ―Abu Ayyub Al-Masri‖ and in October, he declared the group as the Islamic State in Iraq (ISI). In April 2010, Abu-ayyub Al Masri was killed in a joint operation between the US & Iraqi forces, and Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi succeeded him in leading the group. The IS attacks then were still primitive when Al Baghdadi took over, as they lacked advanced equipment or the needed fund. They used the Syrian crisis for a great breakthrough, as they crossed the borders between Iraq and Syria to operate, especially against the Alawite Bashar‘s regime gaining more territory and equipment from the well-equipped rebels, who got captured by the group, and some even joined it.28 Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS):

In April 2013, ISI became ISIS when Al-Baghdadi announced annexing Syria to his pro-claimed state, to become the ―Islamic State of Iraq and Syria‖, announcing himself as Caliph – the chief Muslim civil and religious ruler. Afterwards, he claimed that Jabhat Al-Nusrah – Al Qaeda affiliate in Syria – had pledged loyalty to him, changing ISIS to just the ―Islamic State‖. They attacked Mosul and seized Raqqah, and announced it as their capital. Later, Al-Nusrah announced they were not related to IS, condemning their excessive violence. The IS now stands as one of the sides in the Syrian conflict, with its multi-national thousands of soldiers, advanced equipment and increasing fund.29

2) Funding and equipment: Early after the Shiite takeover of the authority in Iraq, the group was suspected to be mainly funded by individuals from the Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar. After the U.S. left Iraq, they managed to seize some of the U.S. arms and equipment. However, they were still not wellequipped, as the heavy arms were still in the hands of the Iraqi government.30 When the Syrian crisis broke out and the IS went to operate, they managed to get funds and equipment through different sources including the same old ones. Some of these sources are: 31 32  Oil extraction and smuggling: Representing an important source of fund for the Islamic State, the oil wells within their territories in Syria and Iraq altogether produce around 48,000 barrels daily, which offers the group a daily net-

http://www.exposingtruth.com/isis-origins/ http://www.cfr.org/iraq/islamic-state/p14811 30 https://securityintelligence.com/funding-terrorists-the-rise-of-isis/ 31 http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/111015/how-does-isis-fund-its-operations.asp 32 http://www.cfr.org/iraq/islamic-state/p14811 29

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profit ranging from 1 to 3 million dollars, as a result of selling it crude to truckers and traders who distribute it, as well as smuggling to Bashar‘s government, the Kurdish and the Turks.  Robberies, looting and Ransoms: The IS always tends to loot the estates of each new added land to their territory. Reportedly, the organization had robbed Mosul‘s Central Bank of about $429 million. In addition, they kidnapped foreign nationals and exchanged them for ransom payments which offered them a sum of $20 million in 2014 only.  Extortion, Taxation and Human Trafficking: Making a monthly sum of around $8 million, the IS militants are believed to extort businesses in different regions of their control especially Mosul. Non- Sunni people there are taxed with special taxation system for minorities, in addition to being exposed to sex trafficking. It is reckoned that IS raises about $2 billion per year from the sale of oil, tolls and taxes, making them the richest terrorist group, nevertheless, they managed to seize heavy arms, either through stealing them from the Iraqi forces or through recruiting new members from the well-equipped, trained and armed Syrian rebels. Eventually, they were led to own rocket launchers, armored vehicles and tanks.33

D. Kurds:

Kurds are considered stateless people, as their country, Kurdistan, is divided among Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria. 34 Out of the Syrian population, 7 to 10% are Kurds; they are about 2 to 2.5 million which is the smallest percentage among Turkey, Iran and Iraq. They live in the northern regions of Syria. Kurds are considered the largest ethnic minority in Syria, also in Turkey, Iran and Iraq. 35 Since the Syrian uprising, all the Syrian population has been affected including Kurds as they are a vital group until the Syrian Civil War; they have participated in the protests against Bashar‘s regime, especially in Rojava. They have named one Friday during protests in May 2011 "Friday of Azadi" which is Kurdish for freedom.36

33 34

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/paris-attacks-where-does-isis-get-its-money-and-arms-a6736716.html http://www.kurdishaspect.com/doc060910SK.html http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/16673/rojava-and-kurdish-political-parties-in-syria

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The Syrian-Kurdish parties are divided into two main political parties: the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and the Kurdish National Council (KNC), they have relatively different ideologies on how to retrieve Kurdish rights. The PYD seeks an armed struggle, while the KNC does not, and has always condemned the violations and violent actions taken by the PYD; acts like kidnapping, arrest and forced recruitment, all against Kurds who may disagree with their policies. They are also on different sides with the Syrian opposition, as the PYD stands by the National Coordination Body (NCB) while the KNC stands by the Syrian National Coalition (SNC). 37 In June 2012, the opposition group Syrian National Council (SNC) picked a Kurdish leader named Abdelbaset Sieda who said that the group ―will take on its role as an umbrella under which all the opposition will seek shade‖. 38 In 2015, Turkey joined the United States coalition against IS, and instead of targeting the organization‘s locations, Turkey stroke at the Kurdistan workers' party (PKK) In Iraq. Shortly after in Syria, the People's Protection Units (YPG) claimed that the Turkish military attacked Kurdish fighters. The attacks were confirmed by the Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and he said that Turkey stroke them twice, and the Turkish side said they warned the Kurds from getting nearer to the Turkish borders.39 40 Rojava Revolution: Rojava refers to west-Kurdistan, which includes parts of Syria, Turkey and a short border of Iraq. There are three cantons of Rojava; Cizare, Kobane and Afrin. In July 2012, the Syrian Army withdrew from most of their positions in Rojava. The three cantons declared their autonomy in January 2014. 41 In summer 2014, IS launched a siege on Kobane canton and captured 325 Kurdish villages near the Syria-Turkey border. Supplies for 200,000 people arrived from Jordan to Turkey to aid the people affected by the attacks as the villages of Kobane have over 200,000 Syrians displaced from other areas inside the country.42 43 Support started flowing into Kobane to defend it against IS as the Free Syrian Army sent 50 of its men, afterwards, Peshmarga fighters entered Kobane along with fighters from the PKK and Iraqi Peshmarga supplied heavy weapons. According to the Syrian Observatory of human rights, more than 1,000 IS fighters are thought to have been killed in the siege of Kobane, a defeat which was considered a huge progress against IS.44 37

http://en.etilaf.org/all-news/local-news/kurdish-national-council-condemns-pyd-s-violations-against-syrian-kurds.html http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/11/world/middleeast/syrian-forces-shell-cities-as-opposition-picks-leader.html 39 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34645462 40 http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/28/world/europe/turkey-syria-kurdish-militias.html?_r=0 38

https://www.opendemocracy.net/arab-awakening/evangelos-aretaios/rojava-revolution http://www.ibtimes.com/turkeys-parliament-approves-military-action-against-isis-syria-iraq-1698537 43 http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/23/us-syria-crisis-turkey-kurds-unhcr-idUSKCN0HI0U020140923 44 http://www.syriahr.com/en/2015/01/how-the-islamic-state-was-halted-in-kobani/ 42

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Controlled Territories:

Foreign intervention in Syria: As the situation in Syria escalated leading to a civil war, it turned the eyes of many other states, not only in the aim of protecting their own interest inside Syria, but also because the conflict has grown more and more sectarian and the chances became very high for this conflict to reach neighboring countries which, in return, had invited foreign countries to intervene. The Russian intervention in Syria: Russia has many interests in Syria, therefore maintaining the survival of the Syrian regime – in the face of the uprising opposition within Syria and the intense pressure from the Western countries, as well as the Gulf Arab countries – comes with a great advantage to Russia, which is highly motivated by the military interests in addition to the extensive trade that go back to the Soviet era. Russia has interests in Syria to protect: •Arms industry: In 2011, Russia‘s industry of weapons had exported to Syria around $1 billion worth of arms, while there was $4 billion in outstanding contracts. Since the beginning of the uprising it had been reported that there was an increase in shipments of small arms.

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•Trade ties: There is a lot at stake for Russian businessmen to lose in Syria. Syria‘s manufacturing sector had already crumbled under the weight of sanctions and years of mismanagement, thus, the regime would depend heavily on imports of grains, petroleum products, electrical equipment and other goods from Russia. In fact, trade between Syrian and Russia has rose up to $1.97 billion in 2011, according to Russian sources. •Tartous port: representing the ―crown jewel‖ for Moscow from its relation with Syria, Russian access to a naval base in Syria‘s port city of Tartous was guaranteed, which provided Russia its only navy outpost in the Mediterranean. This cooperation goes back to 1971, however, in 2008 Tartous was officially converted into a permanent Russian base, with great ambition towards modernizing its facilities. Hence, a regime change in Syria was definitely a red line for Moscow, which made it impossible for any UN Security Council resolution – including an authorization for an international military intervention against Assad – to pass a Russian Veto.45 In addition, Putin had repeatedly confirmed that his top commanders were ready to join the already existing Russian troops backing up Assad‘s regime on the ground, along with other support forces such as the Russian intelligence agents, who coordinate their efforts with various kinds of forces whether the army, navy or aviation. Putin also stressed how there were more means which could be used to support Assad‘s regime, and that there would be no hesitation to use them if required.46 The Chinese intervention in Syria: Unlike Russia, China does not have close economic ties with Syria, even though China is ranked as one of Syria‘s biggest importers. However, while China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) holds a partnership with Syria‘s main oil producing consortium named Al-Furat Petroleum Company, the energy needs are doubtful to decide China‘s policy towards Syria. After all, Saudi Arabia, which is China‘s biggest energy supplier, wishes nothing but to see Assad‘s regime abolished. China‘s constant opposition to the U.S. led air strikes against Bashar‘s regime is rather a matter of ideology than of strategy. China‘s real concern is the U.S. using this opportunity to gather support for external intervention and the use of military force where it deems necessary. For China, this is considered a reinforcement of an international order raised and run by the United States. China is also concerned about militant Islamists who may use the chance if the current regime was toppled to take over Syria and gain control. This fear was further intensified by the rise of Islamists in other countries after the Arab Spring like Libya and Egypt. Some of these militant Islamist groups, such as Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State, have both been linked to al Qaeda and both as well had expressed their ambition to see an Islamic state under the law of Sharia in Syria after Assad.

45 46

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/02/02/opinion/treisman-russia-syria http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/19/russia-ready-increase-military-role-syria-vladimir-putin

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Due to these considerations it‘s highly unlikely to prevent china from putting off its veto whenever the UN Security Council tries to intervene in Syria with the aim of removing Bashar‘s regime to end the civil war.47 Additionally, several concerns had been raised by the US due to Special Chinese Forces Units which were authorized to be deployed by the China‘s People‘s Congress after passing its first anti-terrorism law, giving permission to take part against terror abroad and creating a new anti-terror agency and security forces, thus, the possibility of China joining the war against terror in Syria raised concerns, since it would be one of the most significant allies to Assad‘s regime.48 Lebanese intervention in Syria: Lebanon was one of the front line countries to get involved in the Syrian crisis, which resulted in directly putting Hezbollah militants against al Qaeda jihadists who had grouped in Syria. It was confirmed by Hezbollah‘s leader that they were already fighting these rebels on a relatively small scale in Syria. Dozens are believed to be killed, and their bodies were sent back to Lebanon for burial. Their main target was to defend the Lebanese Shiites living in over twenty border villages inside Syria, commonly known as Al-Qasr, which had represented home to Lebanese Shiites and Christians who were being attacked by Jabhat Al-Nusra repeatedly. Hezbollah‘s second main target in Syria was to protect and defend the Sayyida Zeinab shrine located near Damascus where other Iraqis-Shiites were believed to be there as well. The shrine represented a sacred place for Shiites since it was where the granddaughter of the prophet Mohammed buried, that shrine normally witnessed pilgrims visiting it along the year. Tensions broke out even further when Israel launched twin air strikes targeting Hezbollah from Iran, which was a primary supporter to the Hezbollah militants in Syria. Later on a Shiite mosque was burned down by Syrian rebels in northern Idlib province. Hezbollah and Jabhet Al-Nusra were engaged in a conflict which kept on getting closer to the Zeinab shrine. Shiite villages, meanwhile, were being attacked by militants who praised Bin Laden, while Sunni villagers were getting slaughtered by regime loyalists, leading to a sectarian fight which had not only taken place in Syria but also had already leaked across the borders into Lebanon. Iranian intervention in Syria: Iran and Syria represent close strategic allies. When the conflict in Syria burst out to a civil war, Iran provided all sorts of support to the Syrian regime, whether logistical or financial support, in addition to training the Syrian combat troops of National Defense Force.

47 48

http://csis.org/publication/how-will-china-react-military-strike-syria http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-35188137

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The survival of the Syrian government was of crucial importance to Iran because it‘s considered to be the main channel to the Shiite militia Hezbollah in Lebanon, through which Iran can threaten Israel with an arsenal of short-range missiles.49 Turkish intervention in Syria: It was highly unlikely for Turkey to intervene in Syria at first for several reasons. Firstly, the lack of international support where Turkey couldn‘t interfere without a green light from its partners in the NATO alliance in addition to the fact that Syria is in a state of chaos and any support to the opposition can‘t be trusted to be able to form a stable transition government if it managed to bring Bashar‘s regime down which could result in a serious destabilization in the region. However the Turkish position changed after a long standing refusal to join the US-led coalition against ISIS, Turkey agreed to play a larger role in the fight against IS launching a short series of airstrikes against them, it even allowed the US to use its bases in Turkey to launch their strikes. Nevertheless Turkey had its own interest regarding joining the US led coalition against IS for it had launched a massive air campaign against Kurdish militants located in northern Iraq and southeastern Turkey, which had consequently fueled suspicion among senior U.S. military officials to think that Turkey might be more interested in targeting the Kurdish fighters rather than fighting IS militants. 50 US intervention and the US-led coalition against ISIS: Although the civil war in Syria had reportedly killed more than 100,000 people since 2011, the main and official reason for US intervention in Syria was due to Bashar‘s regime use of chemical weapons outside the Capital Damascus on August 2013, where the US condemned the Syrian government forces for the death of hundreds of victims resulting from these attacks. However the US credibility line was at stake although the US clarified repeatedly that it wasn‘t intending to get involved in another war in the Middle East but at the same time it had drawn a red line regarding the use of chemical weapons by the Syrian army threatening to take serious action if Bashar‘s regime crossed it. The US supports Syria's main opposition alliance represented in the National Coalition, providing military assistance to moderate rebels. Starting September 2014, the US had been conducting air strikes over ISIS and other extremist jihadist groups in Syria as part of an international coalition. However it tried avoiding any attacks that could work in the favor of Assad's forces or intervening in the battles taking place between them and the rebels.

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/08/08/world/syria-iran-analysis/ http://www.understandingwar.org/report/iranian-strategy-syria 50 http://www.wsj.com/articles/turkey-to-join-coalitions-airstrikes-against-isis-1440535062

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The US-led coalition against ISIS included Australia, Canada, France, Bahrain, Jordan, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and United Arab Emirates, and recently after the Paris attacks, Germany had also joined the coalition and other countries are expected to join as well.51 In February 2016, World powers including the US and Russia agreed to start a nationwide "ceasefire" in Syria, after talks in Munich, Germany. However, the halt didn`t apply to the battle against jihadist groups Islamic State (IS) and al-Nusra Front. The 17-member International Syria Support Group (ISSG) also agreed to accelerate and expand aid deliveries. The US alongside its allies struck two IS targets in Syria Friday 4th of March,2016 destroying two of IS fighting positions near Palmyra, as human rights groups have reportedly announced that civilians are getting killed in ceasefire violations.52

Humanitarian Crisis in Syria: For four years, after the Syrian uprising, human rights violations led to the emergence of a humanitarian crisis, affecting the lives of millions of Syrians. 1. Deaths: The Syrian Network for Human Rights kept track of the number of deaths since the outbreak, more than 180,000 civilians were killed since March 2011 till October in 2015; 95.96% of them were killed by governmental forces. All groups of people were among those civilians, even children and women were included, as more than 20,000 children were killed. Besides, 450 activists were killed since March 2011 till October 31st, 2015; 91.65% of them were killed by governmental forces and 3,031 Palestinians staying in Syria were killed as well. A number of 11,000 of the above mentioned cases were killed as a result of death under torture, 99.45% of them were killed by governmental forces. 53 54 Memorable massacres: A number of savage massacres were behind a considerable number of these deaths. It started in May 2012 in what was known as ―Houla massacre‖, where 100 people were killed after shots were fired by regime artillery. A month after, 90 villagers were stabbed and shot in a massacre called ―Al-Qubair‖, that was condemned by the UN secretary Ban Ki Mon. In August 2012, two massacres in the Syrian took place, first in the siege of Hama, where more than 100 people were killed in the first 24 hours, and the number was doubled in the following hours. Later, in Daraya massacre, the number of deaths exceeded 400, and it was believed to be ―the worst massacre committed by the Syrian regime in the Syrian civil war‖. 55 Two other massacres took place in 2013, first in March, hundreds of bodies were found floating in Queiq River coming from the 51

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-23849587 http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/05/us-led-airstrikes-hit-isis-targets-syria-iraq 53 http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/jun/07/assad-regime-un 54 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/05/aleppo-queiq-photo_n_3391186.html 55 http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/aug/28/syria-worst-massacre-daraya-death-toll-400 52

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direction of areas ruled by governmental forces, then in May in Bayda and Baniyas massacres, where more than 100 people were killed in Baniyas, and next day 72 were killed in Bayda. 56 2. Detained: Disappearances from the Syrian life include being detained as well as dead; more than 215,000 Syrians including children were detained by the Syrian government in more than 100 prisons and detention centers since the uprising till December 2014, 11,000 of those detainees were executed. 57 3. Usage of Chemical weapons: The violation that is banned under the international law has always been a controversy in Syria. Usage of chemical weapons happened in Syria, but was denied by each and every side of the conflict. In March 2013, 16 people were killed in Khan Al-Assad due to a rocket fired containing chemical weapons. Right after that in mid-April, 40 people were intoxicated in Damascus and analysis confirmed the usage of sarin which is a colorless, odorless and tasteless chemical weapon. 58 Later that year in August, attacks which was named Ghouta chemical attack on opposition-controlled areas were conducted using chemical weapons, the attacks left hundreds dead including children and women, also left thousands with breathing problems. 59 4. Refugees: The crisis in Syria left people unable to live under such unbearable conditions, it affected more people than those affected by Haiti Earthquake, Hurricane Katrina and the Tsunami combined, so many left their homes in hopes of a more humane life. According to the UNHCR, almost 11 million Syrians were affected by the conflict and in need of humanitarian assistance, more than 6 million of them were internally displaced and forced to flee their homes, and more than 4 million by 2016 were displaced out of the country and registered by the UNHCR as refugees. More than 3200 of the Syrians displaced out of the country died in 2015, 10% of them need resettlement, and according to the UNICEF, the crisis in Syria reversed more than a decade of progress in the Syrian children education. 60 The refugees were mainly fleeing to 5 countries; Turkey; 1.9 million refugees in 22 camps, Lebanon; 1.2 million refugees, Jordan; 650,000 refugees, Iraq; 249,463 and Egypt; 132,375 refugees. The Gulf countries on the other hand have not contributed in hosting Syrian refugees or building camps. In 2015, Syrian refugees started redirecting themselves to Europe or non-Arab countries instead of Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt. A number of 150,000 Syrians are seeking asylum in the EU, mostly in Germany. 61

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/may/04/syrians-flee-after-second-massacre http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/20/evidence-industrial-scale-killing-syria-war-crimes?view=desktop 58 http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/16/syria-assad-regime-is-weaponising-chlorine-us-congress-to-hear, 59 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-22557347 57

60 61

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2015/09/syrias-refugee-crisis-in-numbers/ http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php

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In November 2015, the first Syrian family arrived as refugees to Australia, as a first step of a plan of resettling 12,000 Syrian refugees on the Australian land. 62 Also, the Canadian government is planning on resettling 25,000 Syrian refugees inside its borders. 63 The situation differed in the United States and shifted also in Europe after the Paris attacks; in November 2015, 31 of the United States governors specified that they refuse the entrance of Syrian refugees to the United States, in the same month, the House of Representatives passed a bill that specifies that no refugee can enter the country unless the director of the F.B.I., the secretary of the Department of Homeland Security and the director of national intelligence confirm the applicant poses no threat. This followed the Paris attacks in fear of repetition of such incident. 64 On November 29th, a deal was made between Europe and Turkey, where Turkey is to be paid 3.2 billion dollars supporting Syrian refugees registered by the Turkish government in order to limit the number of Syrian refugees entering Europe as a result of worries following the Paris attacks. 65

Future Scenarios: What is the United Statesâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC; overall strategy toward the Syrian conflict in general and toward the Islamic State in Syria and the Assad government in particular? How if at all should the United States respond to calls from regional partners and some Syrians for the imposition of no-fly zone or safe zone arrangements for the protection of civilians in areas of Syria? How might Russian military operations in Syria shape debate about those options? How might Russian military intervention in Syria change the dynamics of the Syrian conflict, the prospects for a settlement or transition, and the context in which the United States and its allies pursue their campaign against the Islamic State organization?

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/first-syrian-refugees-arrive-in-australia/story-fni0cx12-1227611438733 http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/refugees/welcome/index.asp 64 http://edition.cnn.com/2015/11/16/world/paris-attacks-syrian-refugees-backlash/, 65 http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/11/29/to-stem-migration-eu-offers-turkey-money.html 63

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Second topic: North Korea I.

North Korea’s Political System ...................................................... 36  Juche Ideology ...........................................................................  The Workers‘ Party ....................................................................  National Defense Commission ..................................................

II.

Historical Background.................................................................... 37  Pre-Civil War .............................................................................  The Korean Civil War ................................................................  Post-Civil War ............................................................................ Humanitarian Conditions in North Korea ................................... 40  Prison Camps ..............................................................................  Trials and Executions .................................................................  Freedom of Expression and Media .............................................  Freedom of Information and Internet .........................................  Freedom of Religion ...................................................................  Human Trafficking .....................................................................  Freedom of Movement ...............................................................  Food Shortages and unfair distribution ......................................

III.

IV.

Illicit Activities in North Korea ..................................................... 45  International abductions ............................................................  Drug Trafficking ........................................................................  Counterfeiting the U.S. Dollars (Super Dollars) ......................

North Korean Foreign Relations ................................................... 46  China...........................................................................................  Russia..........................................................................................  Japan ...........................................................................................  United States ...............................................................................  South Korea ................................................................................ Nuclear Negotiations History ......................................................... 50  1994 agreed Framework .............................................................  Six Party Talks (2003-2009) ......................................................  Tensions Escalate (2010-present) .............................................. Future Scenarios ............................................................................. 51

VI.

VII.

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North Korea For decades North Korea has been considered one of the world's most secretive societies. It is one of the few countries still under nominally communist rule. The country emerged in 1948 amid the chaos following the end of the Second World War. Its history is dominated by its Great Leader, Kim Il-sung, who has shaped political affairs for almost half a century. Decades of this ―rigid state-controlled system‖ have led to stagnation and a leadership dependent on the cult of personality. The totalitarian state also stands accused of systematic human rights abuses.

North Korea`s Political System: Juche Ideology North Korea has adopted an ideology which guides it in its activities; this ideology is called ―Juche‖ meaning ―self-reliance‖. It was authored by President Kim Il Sung. The idea states that an individual is the master of his destiny and that the North Korean masses are to act as the masters of the revolution and construction. The government of North Korea maintains applying the Juche ideology in all possible realms. For example; the nation`s movement towards diplomatic and economic independence and most importantly the nation`s attempts to become militarily self-reliant that led to the development of the their own nuclear program.66

The Worker’s Party: Korean Worker‘s Party (KWP) is the North Korean sole political party founded in 1946 where it was the state‘s primary agency for political power and it came to rise in the early years of North Korea. There was an amendment to the constitution of North Korea in 1998 where it stated that ―The Democratic People‘s Republic of Korea shall conduct all activities under the leadership of the Workers‘ Party.‖ The party was established after World War II came to an end when Korea had been under the Japanese occupation for four decades. Struggling Korea was later split into the Northern Sovietoccupied part and the Southern United States-occupied part of the Korean peninsula. Kim Il Sung, who had long been a guerrilla fighter against the Japanese and had his training with the Soviet army, established the Korean Worker`s Party in August 1946 which soon became the dominant force of the political life in North Korea. Party membership is open to everyone; however members must meet certain standards of reliability such as political loyalty. Industrial workers form the largest portion of the party‘s members followed

http://www.korea-dpr.com/juche_ideology.html

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by peasants and intellectuals. KWP members are considered to be among the countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s elite and have several privileges when it comes to housing and education. It was believed that the primacy of KWP had decreased in the late 1990s since Kim Jung ILâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s policy increased the militaryâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s importance relative to the party, however the KWP remained to hold its supremacy in holding the authority over mass civilian organizations as well as being in charge of all the economic activities.67

National Defense commission: The National Defense Commission (NDC) is considered to be the highest branch of government in North Korea as it guides and directs all military, defense and security related affairs and policy making regarding the mentioned matters. North Korea, being a militarized state, the National Defense commission began providing guidance as well to other seemingly non-military matters such as foreign policy, diplomacy, energy and the civilian economy. According to the Constitution, the highest post in the state is the chairmanship of the NDC.68

North Korea`s Historical Background: Pre-Civil War Korea underwent fundamental changes under the Japanese occupation. Even before Japan formally annexed Korea in 1910, Japan was the reason behind the abdication of the throne in 1907 by Korean King Kojong in favor of his son, who soon was married to a Japanese woman. Japan governed Korea since then under a residency general then under a governor general which was directly subordinate to Japanese Prime minister. Japan worked on demolishing the Korean culture with all its aspects, and was forcing its language and culture over the Koreans, where it had a goal that aimed at compelling the Koreans to consider themselves as Japanese subjects. That goal ended by World War II when Japan was defeated by the United States causing their surrender and putting an end to the Japanese rule in Korea in 1945. 69 The surrender brought with it another crisis to Korea which led to its division, as it started by both the United States and the Soviet Union who accepted the surrender of Japan leaving the Soviet Union occupying Korea north of the 38th parallel line while the United States had occupied the South of the 38th parallel line. This agreement reached by the United States and Soviet Union was supposed to be temporary until the country becomes capable of reaching a unified form of government.

http://www.britannica.com/topic/Korean-Workers-Party https://nkleadershipwatch.wordpress.com/dprk-security-apparatus/national-defense-commission/ 69 http://countrystudies.us/south-korea/7.htm 68

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However, in 1947, as the Cold War emerged between the United States and the Soviet Union, in addition to the political differences which rose between the Korean citizens in the north and south, it consequently led to the breakdown of agreements. Elections were held in the South in May 1948, and on August 15, 1948 the Republic of Korea formally came into existence. A parallel process occurred in North Korea, as a new Supreme People`s Assembly was elected in August 1948, and the Democratic People`s Republic of Korea was proclaimed on September 9 by Kim Il-Sung. The Soviet Union declared that Kimâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s regime was the only lawful government on the peninsula, while on the other hand the UN General Assembly declared the Republic of Korea to be the only lawful government in Korea.

The Korean Civil War: On June 25, 1950, the North Korean government, led by Kim IL-Sung, took the initiative in an attempt to unify the Korean peninsula once again by forceful attacks leading to a civil war. Meanwhile, the United States, assisted by the United Nations, led a coalition of countries to aid South Korea, while on the other end China backed North Korea by sending thousands of troops. The Soviet Union also backed the North Korean forces by offering only finances and weapons.

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July 1953 marked the end of the Korean Civil War, Thousands of lives were taken with no victory declared, this led to nothing but taking the nation back to the same position it was in before the war erupted and the borders dividing the peninsula strengthened. In addition to the war victims according to death statistics compiled by the office of information, the Republic of Korea, United Nations forces and South Korean war deaths included 373,599 civilians and 29,294 military personnel, 150,133 South Korean were captured and 408,884 were reposted as missing or prisoner of war in addition to the number of migrants to North Korea whether by choice or by force to 290,000 bringing the war related decrease in population to 830,000 and that was only the reported cases while the average is being estimated to a loss of 1.5 million to 2 million lives.70 Destruction took place everywhere along towns, homes, businesses and the different facilities along the border of the 38th parallel line causing a financial burden on both sides. A ceasefire line was established along the borders, a demilitarized zone which divides North and South Korea to this day.71

Post-Civil war: Tensions grew between North Korea and the Soviet Union after the war came to an end, since the Soviet Union lost no causalities as there was a complete lack of military support from their side, leading to a growing sense of betrayal to Kim IL Sung and urgency to implement the Juche ideology of self-reliance.

http://www.icks.org/pdf/2001-SPRING-SUMMER/chapter8.pdf

http://totallyhistory.com/division-of-korea/

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The Soviet Union stunned North Korea in September 1990 when it established diplomatic relations with South Korea. Furthermore, after the collapse of the Soviet Union in August 1991, the new Russian government under Boris Yeltsin refused to provide support for North Korea, instead in favor of South Korea, which led to the North Korean famine of 1994-1998.72 Meanwhile Kim Jung-IL became North Korea‘s leader after Kim IL Sung died in 1994 due to a heart attack. Kim Jung IL became known as the ―Dear Leader‖. However the Supreme People‘s Assembly had eliminated the position of President reserving for Kim Il Sung the title of ―eternal president‖ therefore Kim Jung Il was reelected as chairman of the National Defense Commission with expanded powers. 73 Kim Jung IL faced a struggling economy in North Korea and a famine. Worried about his position in power, Kim Jung IL instituted the ―Military First‖ policy, which prioritized national resources to the military. Thus, the military would be pacified and remain in his control. Kim could defend himself from threats domestic and foreign, while economic conditions worsened. The policy did produce some economic growth and along with some socialist-type market practices, North Korea has been able to remain operational despite being heavily dependent on foreign aid for food.74 Kim Jung-Il died on December 17, 2011, and was succeeded by his son Kim Jung-Un. . Jung-Un has ruled brutally, carrying out large-scale purges of senior officials. He has declared a two-track policy (the byungjinline) that pursues economic development and nuclear weapons development. Marketoriented reforms announced in 2014 appear to be producing modest economic growth for some citizens, but the reforms are small in scale and reversible. While North Korea continues to insist that it should be recognized as a nuclear-armed state.75

The Humanitarian Conditions in DPRK: North Korea is considered one of the least ranked states in terms of maintaining the Human Rights of its civilians. Their Human Rights record has no parallel in the contemporary world according to the United Nations Human Rights Council‘s Commission of Inquiry.76 North Korea`s ―Juchey Ideology‖ and ―Military First‖ principle has some serious implications on the country`s economy; most of the nation`s resources and budget are directed to the military and developing its equipment on the expense of the citizens‘ basic needs. The North Korean community is divided into categories based on a system known as ―Songbun system‖. Songbun categorizes the people of North Korea into 3 classes and 51 levels according to

http://countrystudies.us/north-korea/66.htm http://www.britannica.com/biography/Kim-Jong-Il 74 http://www.biography.com/people/kim-jong-il-201050#failing-health 75 https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R41259.pdf 73

https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2015/country-chapters/north-korea

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their political, economic and social backgrounds, in addition to their behaviors and loyalty to the ruling family. The three classes of the people are: 1- The Core class, consisting of the elite and the High- ranked Military officials and they are considered the trusted class by the government, 2- The Wavering class, consisting of the lower- ranked military officials and others. 3- The Hostile class: ranging middle class to poor citizens. 77 The Core Class members enjoy all the luxuries and the privileges while the Hostile Class members do not.78 Understanding the concepts of ―Juche‖ and ―Songbun‖ gives an insight on the humanitarian crisis in North Korea.

 Prison Camps: North Korea owns a huge network of prison camps in which the prisoners suffer from malnutrition, torture and inhumane conditions. The government there denies the presence of such camps but the testimonies of those who fled North Korea and the satellite cameras oppose that. There are two types of prison camps: Political prison camps and rehabilitation (re-educating) prison camps.

Political prison camps: Ranging from 4 to 6 camps, the political prison camps, known as Kwan-li-so, hold an estimated number of more than 100,000 prisoners who are exposed to extreme conditions including introducing meager portions of food, the absence of medical care, terrible housing and clothing and sexual abuses. Alongside these conditions, prisoners are exposed to forced labor in agriculture and mining at unsafe worksites and conditions. These inhumane conditions of living and work led more than 40% of the prisoners to starvation, malnutrition and eventually death. People who are held in these camps are mainly accused of political crimes, which are defined by the North Korean government as: any offense against the government or any sort of criticism. Political prisoners are sentenced for life. Most of them in the Kwan-li-so camps do not face any conviction, they can be detained because one of their relatives has offended the regime, or they can be ―guilty by association‖, meaning that three different generations of the same family - including new born babies - can be detained because one of the members of the family is guilty, since their ―blood is guilty‖ as the North Korean authorities claim. Furthermore, prisoners who try to escape from these camps are publicly executed.79

The re-education prison camps: Known as Kyo-hwa-so, re-education prison camps are designated for the low level political crimes such as trying to cross the borders, in addition to any other type of crimes: like thefts and murders. 77

https://www.hrnk.org/uploads/pdfs/HRNK_Songbun_Web.pdf

http://www.libertyinnorthkorea.org/learn-nk-challenges/

http://www.amnesty.org.uk/north-korea-satellite-images-expose-scale-prison-camps

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Prisoners in these camps face nearly the same severe conditions in Kwan-li-so. However, they are exposed to different sentences ranging from short-period imprisonment to death. The rehabilitation process is believed to include forcing the prisoners to memorize the speeches of Kim-Il-Sung to empower their loyalty to the regime.80

 Trials and executions: Although the North Korean constitution preserves the right of free trials to its people, in practice, most of the prisoners are sentenced after short trials. Public execution is the most common sentence in North Korea. The regime opponents are the ones who are commonly executed. One of the incidents was executing Kim Jung Un‘s uncle, Jang Sungtaek, for ―not being enthusiastic‖ about one of his decisions. 81

 Freedom of Expression and Media: North Korea‘s constitution also preserves the basic freedom of expression, and North Korea signed some treaties to enhance the freedom of speech. However, in practice, the people of North Korea have no right to oppose the regime or its decisions. North Koreans who express any sort of opposition are exposed to arbitrary detention and imprisonment in the previously mentioned inhumane prison camps without fair trials. In addition, the government empowers the citizens to be informants on their friends and relatives who criticize the regime as inseparable part of their patriotism.82 For the Media, North Koreans are only allowed to watch state-controlled Radio and TV channels, which empower the regime‘s ideology and propagandize for its leader. On a parallel side, newspapers are also designated to defend the regime and empower its existence through manipulating and advocating its ideology. ―Reporters without Borders‖- an international non-profit, non-governmental organization that promotes and defends freedom of information and freedom of the press- listed North Korea as the 179th out of 180 countries ahead of Eritrea only in terms of freedom of expression.83

 Freedom of Information and Internet: North Koreans aren‘t allowed to watch South Korean and Chinese movies or programs and whoever tries to receive their channels on TV are exposed to severe punishments. In addition, North Koreans aren‘t allowed to communicate with people from other countries whether to exchange information, trade or any other form of communication.

http://www.amnesty.org.uk/north-korea-satellite-images-expose-scale-prison-camps

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/12/12/even-by-north-korean-standards-thisannouncement-of-jang-song-thaeks-execution-is-intense/ 82

http://www.libertyinnorthkorea.org/learn-a-changing-north-korea/

https://index.rsf.org/#!/index-details

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In North Korea, only special people are given access to the internet and for very special purposes like military development researches and other sorts of academics. Ordinary people aren‘t granted the privilege of internet usage except under very strict censorship. They don‘t use the common operating systems -such as Windows or IOS- as they have their own monitored operating system called Red Star which only contains some basic functions like chat and local social media.84

 Freedom of Religion: North Korea is considered one of the most homogenous countries when it comes to religion and ethnicity. Most of the North Koreans are Buddhists or Confucianists. There are also minority Christians and others.85 Freedom of practitioners isn‘t guaranteed in North Korea as the priests there work under direct supervision of the regime because organized religion is regarded as a threat to the stability of the regime and mistrust to the Juchey Ideology.86 One of the incidents was detaining a Korean-American Evangelical Christian Missionary called Kenneth Bae after finding a Bible in his luggage and accusing him of working for an evangelical Chinese organization aiming at overthrowing the North Korean leadership.87

 Human Trafficking: Kim Jung Un- led state is one of the biggest sources for trafficked persons especially forced labor within North Korea or abroad and commercial sexual activities. The U.S. listed North Korea in Tier-3 which refers to mismatching the least standards of efforts to eliminate human trafficking.88

Forced labor: The North Korean government uses its people in systematic forced labor. Inside North Korea, people who graduate from schools do not have the ability to choose their job or even change it, as the government assigns them to certain occupations according to their Songbun level. The companies there don‘t always pay for their employees and don‘t provide them with the least convenient working conditions. Another sort of forced labor takes place inside prison camps by forcing the prisoners to work in mining and agriculture. They are also exposed to different sorts of physical and sexual torture. Moreover, some schools force their students to work for free. The regime has depended on forced labor to improve the economy, especially since the collapse of the Soviet Union. 89

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-20445632 https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/print/country/countrypdf_kn.pdf 86 http://www.uscirf.gov/advising-government/congressional-testimony/life-inside-north-korea 87 http://edition.cnn.com/2014/01/07/us/who-is-kenneth-bae/ 88 http://www.state.gov/j/tip/rls/tiprpt/2014/226649.htm 85

https://www.hrw.org/news/2015/10/07/north-korea-ruling-party-benefits-forced-labor

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On the other hand, North Korea exports its labor to other countries like China, Russia and the Middle East. They work in factories, logging and restaurants. One of the most important importers of the North Korean labor is the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC). Located north of the Demilitarized Zone in South Korea, the KIC imports cheap labor from North Korea. In resemblance to the North Korean exported labor all over the world, the workers are supposed to be compensated for their efforts. However, in practice, the government is the receiver of their payments. In fact, North Korea is one of the countries that did not sign the International Labor Organization (ILO) treaty, which set the standards and the laws of using labor. 90 91

 Sex trafficking: North Korean women, girls and sometimes men are offered in some countries for marriage or prostitution. Some of them work as entertainers and dancers for tourists. Also, women who flee North Korea to China are exposed to forced marriage due to ―lack of marriageable women‖ in China, they may also work in online sex industry.92

 Freedom of Movement: Inside North Korea: People are assigned to certain locations to settle in, according to their Songbun level, and they are not allowed to move to other places without permissions from their work units and after licensing from the government.

Crossing the borders: Crossing the borders is considered a crime in North Korea, whoever is captured while trying to flee North Korea is subjected to be sent to prison camps without trials. People who can reach China are sent back to North Korea according to an agreement between the two countries, and when they are returned, they are either imprisoned or executed. Some of the women who came back from China were forced to abort babies or kill their newborn ones as their own punishment. However, people who flee to South Korea are treated there as citizens, as South Korea still claims control over the whole peninsula. While those who flee to China and get married to Chinese persons face the issue of statelessness of their children. As one of the parents and more generally the mother is undocumented, the child cannot obtain the Chinese citizenship or even the North Korean if they return back to their country. Hence, about 10,000 persons live without citizenship rights, whether in China or North Korea.93

https://www.hrw.org/news/2015/04/29/north-koreas-forced-labor-enterprise-state-sponsored-marketplace-humantrafficking 91 https://www.hrw.org/news/2015/04/22/dispatches-abuses-kaesong-industrial-complex 92 http://www.libertyinnorthkorea.org/learn-nk-challenges/ 93 http://www.libertyinnorthkorea.org/learn-nk-challenges/ 40 https://www.hrnk.org/uploads/pdfs/HRNK_Songbun_Web.pdf

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 Food shortages and unfair distribution: With no sign of economic or agricultural reform, North Korea suffers from continuous food shortages since the 1990s – especially after the collapse of the Soviet Union – in addition to unfair distribution of food according to the Songbun categorization, exposing the North Korean people to malnourishment and other health problems, in addition to a corrupted healthcare system.94

Illicit activities in North Korea:  International abductions: Having admitted for the first time in 2002 the abduction of Japanese citizens, North Korea was believed to be responsible for the abduction of nationals of other countries like Japan, Thailand and Romania. The government of Japan announced the abduction of 17 citizens in the 8th and the 9th decades of the 20th century whom North Korea returned five of them back to Japan and claimed the death of other eight and that the rest of them never entered North Korea.95 Also, South Korea claimed and called for the return of the South Korean abductees since the Korean War.96 In another case, a South Korean plane was kidnapped and re-directed to Pyongyang in December 1969.97

 Drug Trafficking: In North Korea the production of drugs and narcotics is not considered a crime. In fact, the regime is responsible for their production through a company funded by high-ranked members in the ruling Workers Party. A testimony stated that Kim Jong-Il ordered that farms produce poppies to produce heroin. The government is also involved in its trafficking and transporting it to other countries like Japan, where the demand for methamphetamine increased in the late 1990s. Additionally, North Korea was accused by the South Korean National Intelligence Service of refining 50 tons of opium in 1998.98

 Counterfeiting the US Currency: (Super Dollars) The Asian and European markets were hit by amounts of U.S. Dollars which were found to be counterfeited in the 1980s. Most of them were proved to be North Korean. These counterfeited green packs are called ―Super Dollars.‖

http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/n_korea/abduction/ https://www.hrw.org/news/2015/09/18/human-rights-council-protect-north-koreans 97 Aviation Security Management by Andrew R. Thomas https://books.google.com.eg/books?id=Xq9zCgAAQBAJ&pg=PA163&lpg=PA163&dq=the+hijack+of+the+south+korea n+flight+1969&source=bl&ots=nO3Pt6gDor&sig=Nuyc72NBqHcdDtlH8Zex5UiTv5A&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CDMQ6A EwBGoVChMIyJ_6gtmdyQIVSVQUCh3q1Aw8#v=onepage&q=south%20korea&f=false 98 http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2003/08/curtailing-north-koreas-illicit-activities 96

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It was proved that the North Korean Regime exported the same Intaglio Printing Press used by the U.S. Bureau of Engraving and Printing. The reasons for producing the â&#x20AC;&#x2022;Super Dollarsâ&#x20AC;&#x2013; were to improve the status of the declining North Korean economy in addition to pummel the U.S. economy by sapping the U.S. dollar power and stability through flooding the markets with counterfeited notes. Reportedly, North Koreans produce about 15$ million annually.99

North Korean Foreign Relations: North Korea's foreign relations with each country are always subjected to sudden changes over the years, something which was strongly proven looking at the history of the stages of North Korea's foreign relations ever since its establishment in 1948. The Juche ideology was of huge contribution in shaping North Korea`s diplomatic relations; Juche means self-reliance which emphasizes independence in foreign affairs. 164 countries recognize North Korea, but not all of them have an ambassador there. 24 Countries have embassies in Pyongyang the North Korean Capital which are Brazil, Bulgaria, Cambodia, China, Cuba, Czech Republic, Egypt, Germany, India, Indonesia, Iran, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Palestine, Poland, Romania, Russia, Sweden, Syria and Vietnam, and there are DPRK embassies in 47 countries which are Algeria, Angola, Austria, Bangladesh, Brazil, Bulgaria, Cambodia, China, Cuba, Czech Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Germany, Guinea, India, Indonesia, Iran, Italy, Kuwait, Laos, Libya, Malaysia, Mexico, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, Peru, Poland, Romania, Russia, Senegal, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Syria, Thailand, Uganda, the UK, Uzbekistan, Venezuela and Vietnam.100 The countries most involved in North Korea`s rare interactions with the outside world are:

First: China China has always been the number one ally of North Korea and was assisting the North during the Korean War in the 1950s. The two countries are strong trade partners, 30,000 North Koreans live in China and there is a treaty between China and North Korea that supports North Korea against South Korea in Case of war. But recently China started condemning North Korean acts like the launching of a long range rocket in December 2012 and developed concerns regarding North Korea's nuclear program 101 In April 2016, Relations between the countries took a serious turn when China announced economic sanctions against North Korea as a result of the country`s fourth nuclear test. China restricted imports 99

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/panorama/3819345.stm

100

http://www.ncnk.org/resources/publications/NCNK_Issue_Brief_DPRK_Diplomatic_Relations.pdf

101

http://www.cfr.org/china/china-north-korea-relationship/p11097

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of North Korean coal and sales of jet fuel. China also prohibited any trade connected to the North`s missile or nuclear programs.102

Second: Russia After the collapse of the Soviet Union, bilateral relations between North Korea and Russia started deteriorating, as Russia refused to provide food or economic support to North Korea, leading to a nation-wide famine. Russia condemned the DPRKâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s missile test in 2006, and after the nuclear test in 2009, joined countries to impose sanctions on the DPRK. After President Vladimir Putin took office, relations started to get better, in September 2012 90% of the $11 billion debt North Korea owes to Russia since the USSR was written off, which started new economic ties between the two countries.103 In November 2015, North Korean defense minister and Russian military delegation held a meeting in Pyongyang and signed an agreement "preventing dangerous military activities and promptly and peacefully resolve any incident between the parties".104

Third: Japan In 1910, Korea was annexed by Japan as a result of a treaty between the two countries in 1876. The annexation ended by the end of WWII in 1945. After separation from the South and the declaration of the DPRK, Japan did not recognize North Korea as a country. Higher tension rose between the two countries in 1997, when Japanese and Korean residents in Japan were abducted by North Korea. No positive actions were taken by North Korea until 2002, when DPRK admitted the accusations, and Japan's Prime Minister, Junichiro Koizumi, followed up with the issue until the ones who were claimed to be still alive returned. In 2007, there was an agreement between the two countries concerning nuclear disarmament, in which North Korea would shut its nuclear facility down, an agreement that involved Japan and the US towards more stable diplomatic relations.105 North Korea Launched a long range rocket that went over Japan in February 2016, in response, Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary announced tough sanctions to be imposed on North Korea, but he still insisted on the possibility of the option of peaceful negotiations to resolve the conflict. 106

Fourth: United States Unstable relations between the DPRK and the U.S. date back to Korea's separation after WWII. In June 1950, after North Korea's attempt to invade South Korea by the help of the Soviet Union and 102

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/china-announces-sanctions-against-north-korea-a6969256.html http://rbth.com/international/2013/02/12/russia_condemns_north_koreas_another_nuclear_test_22765.html 104 http://thediplomat.com/2015/11/putin-sends-russian-military-to-north-korea/ 105 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/FE25Dh04.html 106 http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/02/japan-slap-sanctions-north-korea-rocket-160210112644465.html 103

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China, the U.S. sent troops to help South Korea in its war. The U.S. president Harry Truman warned U.S. citizens about communism, and claimed that what was happening between the two Koreas could extend danger to the United States. North Korea has presented a vexing and persistent problem to the U.S. foreign policy in the post-Cold War period. The United States has never had formal diplomatic relations with the DPRK, although since 2000, contact at a lower level has ebbed and flowed. Negotiations over North Korea‘s nuclear weapons program have occupied the past three U.S. administrations, even as some analysts anticipated a collapse of the ―isolated authoritarian regime‖. North Korea has been the recipient of over $1 billion in U.S. aid (though none since 2009) and the target of dozens of U.S. sanctions.107

Fifth: South Korea Relations between North and South Korea are precarious. The division of the peninsula was followed by a brutal war which has never officially ended. Reconciliation and unification seem as unlikely now as 60 years ago.108

North Korea`s Nuclear Program: An effective nuclear weapons program has three major elements. Each of these elements must work together to create an operational and effective system.109 1. The program must produce fissile material in sufficient quantity and quality for a nuclear device. Plutonium and weapons-grade highly enriched uranium (HEU) are the two types of fissile material used in nuclear weapons. Plutonium is obtained by separating it from spent nuclear reactor fuel—a procedure called ―reprocessing.‖ Weapons-grade HEU is produced by enriching uranium—a process that increases the concentration of uranium-235 (the relevant fissile isotope).  Pyongyang has developed a nuclear fuel cycle capability and has both plutonium and enriched uranium programs with the ability to produce fissile material. North Korea announced that it had about 38.5kg of weapons-grade plutonium extracted from spent fuel rods in May 2008, however international estimates have differed.110 In November 2010, North Korea announced a uranium enrichment program allegedly intended to produce low-enriched uranium for power reactors, although it is possible for North Korea to produce highly-enriched uranium for nuclear weapons purposes. North Korea conducted three nuclear weapons tests in 2006, 2009 and 2013. It is believed that Weapons-grade HEU was used in the third test, Which provides that North Korea obtains the two types of fissile material used in nuclear weapons. 107 108

https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R41259.pdf http://www.dw.com/en/north-and-south-korea-brothers-at-war/a-16975486

109

https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R43480.pdf "North Korea's Nuclear and Missile Programs," International Crisis Group Asia Report N°168, 18 June 2009, www.crisisgroup.org. 110

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On January 6, 2016, North Korea announced that it successfully tested a ―hydrogen bomb‖ (its fourth nuclear weapon test since its first one in 2006). The U.S. government confirmed that the underground explosion was a nuclear test, but a White House spokesman said that initial data was ―inconsistent‖ with North Korean claims of testing a hydrogen bomb. This type of nuclear weapons would be lighter in weight and smaller in size than a fission bomb with comparable yield and its range could be 10 times more than that of a fission bomb. 2. The program must produce an effective and reliable means of delivering a nuclear weapon, such as a ballistic missile.  In its short-range arsenal, Pyongyang has produced the 500km-range Scud-C, and the 700km-range Scud-D. In its medium and intermediate-range arsenal, North Korea has the 1,300km-range missile known as the Nodong (Rodong). North Korea has utilized between 175 and 200 Nodong missiles, there is also the Musudan missile aka Taepodong-X that has never been tested publicly. In Its long-range arsenal, North Korea's Taepodong-1, an 1800km-range space launch vehicle has been flight-tested. North Korea's three-stage Taepodong-2 has also been tested with varied success. In September 2015, Pyongyang claimed that it would launch a rocket soon to carry a satellite into space - but the US and South Korea believed it would be a test of a long-range military missile. 111 Although space launches and missile launches follow slightly different trajectories and the rocket may be optimized for one purpose or the other, the basic technology used is the same. This includes the structure, engines and fuel. If the Taepodong-2 was successfully launched and it reached its maximum estimated range, its increased power could put Australia and parts of the US, among other countries, within range. In February 2016 North Korea claimed it had successfully launched a satellite into orbit, and pledged to launch more. The North said it successfully launched the "Kwangmyongsong-4 satellite", a more advanced model than it previously launched. It is not yet clear whether the launch was indeed successful. The international community believes the launch was a test of a long-range ballistic missile.112

111 112

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-17399847 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-17399847

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3. The program must produce a nuclear warhead that can be delivered to its intended target, especially at long-range. ď&#x201A;ˇ Pyongyang claims it has developed the ability to make a device small enough to fit a nuclear warhead on to a missile, in order to launch at its enemies. However, US officials have doubted this claim and experts say it is difficult to assess the progress North Korea has made on miniaturization.113 Miniaturization likely would require additional nuclear and missile tests. Until now, the confirmed threat to other nations is from the medium-range Nodong(Rodong) missile, which could reach South Korea and some parts of Japan. Experts assess that North Korea mostly has the capability to fit a nuclear warhead on the Nodong missile.114

Nuclear Negotiations History: North Koreaâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s nuclear weapons program has concerned the United States for three decades. In 1986, U.S. intelligence detected the start-up of a plutonium production reactor and reprocessing plant at Yongbyon, which were not subject to international monitoring. In the early 1990s, after obstructing 113 114

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-34254634 https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R41259.pdf

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International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections, North Korea announced its intention to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Discussion of sanctions at the United Nations Security Council and a diplomatic mission from former President Jimmy Carter diffused the tension and eventually led to the U.S.-North Korea 1994 Agreement.

1994 Framework Agreement115 The 1994 agreed framework was designed to freeze and eventually dismantle North Korea's nuclear weapons program. In exchange, the United States would provide assistance in producing two LightWater (LWRs) power-generating nuclear reactors and supplying fuel oil and other economic aid. The Agreement went through several turns in the period between 1994 and 2002 when it finally reached a serious deadlock when U.S. intelligence agencies suspected North Korea was enriching uranium or building the facilities to do so, presumably for making nuclear weapons. On 16 October 2002, the United States announced that during a visit to the DPRK, Assistant Secretary James A. Kelly and his delegation advised the North Koreans that the United States had recently acquired information indicating that North Korea has a program to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons in violation of the Agreed Framework and other agreements. North Korean officials acknowledged that they have such a program.116 On 14 November, U.S. President George W Bush declared that November oil shipments to North Korea would be the last if it did not agree to put a halt to its weapons programs. On 12 December, DPRK threatened to reactivate nuclear facilities for energy generation, saying the Americans' decision to halt oil shipments left it with no choice. DPRK also blamed the United States for violating the 1994 pact. From January through March 2003, just as the United States military was barreling toward the invasion of Iraq, Kim Jung-IL announced that he was reprocessing spent fuel rods into bomb fuel, raising tensions with the U.S. Late in 2003, the Central Intelligence Agency issued a report that North Korea possessed one and possibly two nuclear bombs. The Chinese government stepped in to try to mediate a settlement, but President Bush refused to meet with Kim Jong Il one-on-one and instead insisted on multilateral negotiations. China was able to gather Russia, Japan, South Korea, and the United States for negotiations with North Korea.

115

http://www.nti.org/treaties-and-regimes/us-dprk-agreed-framework/

116

http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2002_11/nkoreanov02

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Six-Party talks 117 118 Six-Party Talks were held in the period between 2003 and 2009. During the first talks, Bush administration demanded that North Korea should eliminate its nuclear weapons program. It inflexibly maintained any normalcy of relations between North Korea and the United States would occur only if North Korea changed its human rights policies, eliminated all chemical and biological weapons programs, and ended missile technology proliferation. Due to the harsh proposals offered by the U.S, North Korea continually rejected the proposal. In 2006, North Korea's Central News Agency announced North Korea had successfully conducted an underground nuclear bomb test. Some Asian and American policy-makers interpreted Kim‘s decision as a ―fit of pique‖ because ―sixparty talks‖ were moving slowly. Others said that Kim had simply learned from Saddam Hussein‘s mistakes and determined that he would never face the United States without a nuclear weapon. The test itself wasn`t a huge success; it ended with a sub-kiloton explosion, less than a tenth of the power of the bomb the United States dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. But Kim had made his point. He was condemned in the United Nations, and China briefly cut off oil and other trade. But within months the United States agreed on a new series of negotiations. In February 2007, Six-Party Talks negotiators announced an agreement that would provide economic and diplomatic benefits to North Korea in exchange for a freeze and disablement of Pyongyang‘s nuclear facilities. This was followed by an October 2007 agreement that more specifically laid out the implementation plans, including the disablement of the Yongbyon facilities, a North Korean declaration of its nuclear programs, delivery of heavy fuel oil, and a U.S. promise to lift economic sanctions on North Korea and remove North Korea from the U.S. designation under the Trading with the Enemy Act (TWEA) and list of state sponsors of terrorism. The plutonium program was frozen and placed under international monitoring with the United States providing assistance for disabling of key nuclear facilities. Accordingly, The U.S. removed the TWEA designation in June 2008 after North Korea submitted a declaration of its plutonium program. The following day, in an effort to demonstrate its commitment to the denuclearization process, North Korea destroyed the cooling tower of its 5 Megawatt (e) experimental reactor at Yongbyon. The six parties resumed negotiations to map out a verification plan. In October, the North Korea agreed to a number of verification measures, and the United States removed it from the State Sponsors of Terrorism list. In November, North Korea rejected allowing environmental samples being taken from its main nuclear complex. Samples would have been used to verify the North Korea‘s account of past nuclear activities. Due to the several disputes over the specifics of the verification measures, negotiations were stalled once again.

117 118

http://www.nti.org/media/pdfs/6ptalks.pdf?_=1316553863&_=1316553863 http://www.cfr.org/proliferation/six-party-talks-north-koreas-nuclear-program/p13593

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In 2009, the talks hit a roadblock when on 5 April North Korea attempted to place a satellite into orbit with a 3-stage Taepodong-2 missile. North Korea failed to launch the same missile in 2006. During the 2009 test, stage one of the missile fell into the Sea of Japan while the remaining stages along with the payload landed in the Pacific Ocean. This missile test was widely condemned by the international community and was recognized as a violation of United Nations Resolutions. On 14 April Following a UN resolution denouncing its missile launch, North Korea says that it "will never again take part in such [six party] talks and will not be bound by any agreement reached at the talks." North Korea expelled nuclear inspectors and also informed the IAEA that they would resume their nuclear weapons program. On 25 May, North Korea conducted an underground nuclear test about 70 kilometers northwest of Kimchaek, the site of the 2006 underground nuclear test. The international community, including all five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, strongly condemned this act and further sanctions was applied on North Korea.

Tensions Escalate (2010-now) In November 2010, the North Koreans showed a visiting American scientist from Stanford University, Siegfried Hecker, an apparently working uranium enrichment plant that the country had been building for years, and that the C.I.A. had missed, though the agency had been right about other secret facilities. 119 On February 2013, North Korea conducted a third nuclear test which some reports claim that the test, for the first time, was for a uranium weapon. Even the worst results of the test — that it was small by world standards — could have a dangerous downside if the North‘s statement that it is learning to miniaturize bombs is true. That technology, which is extremely difficult to master, is crucial to being able to load a weapon atop a long-range missile that might one day reach as far as the United States mainland.120 On April 2013 North Korea's General Department of Atomic Energy announced that it will put all its nuclear facilities — including its operational uranium-enrichment program at Yongbyon and its reactors mothballed or under construction — to use in expanding its nuclear weapons arsenal. It is the first time the North has said it will use the Yongbyon plant to make nuclear weapons. On 15 September 2015 North Korea officially announced that it has reopened its Yongbyon facility and that it is now fully-operational.

119

Siegfried S. Hecker, "A Return Trip to North Korea's Yongbyon Nuclear Complex," Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University, 20 November 2010, http://iis-db.stanford.edu. 120

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/11/20/world/asia/northkorea-timeline.html

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Most Recently, On January 6, North Korea announced that it had successfully tested a ―hydrogen bomb‖. Despite skepticism that Pyongyang successfully detonated a full-fledged thermonuclear hydrogen bomb, most analysts agree that U.S. and multilateral sanctions have not prevented North Korea from advancing its nuclear weapons program.

Future Scenarios: The Obama administration‘s policy toward North Korea, often referred to as ―strategic patience,‖ is to put pressure on the regime in Pyongyang while insisting that North Korea return to the Six-Party Talks. The main elements of the policy involve insisting that Pyongyang commit to steps toward denuclearization as previously promised in the Six-Party Talks; closely coordinating with treaty allies Japan and South Korea; attempting to convince China to take a tougher line on North Korea; and applying pressure on Pyongyang through arms interdictions and sanctions. Critics claim that the ―strategic patience‖ approach has allowed Pyongyang to control the situation and steadily improve its missile and nuclear programs. The policy not only depends on China showing greater willingness to pressure North Korea, but it also depends on U.S. allies maintaining unity, an approach that might falter if allies take divergent approaches.121 So the question remains: Should the U.S. continue with its ―strategic patience‖ approach despite its major criticisms, or should it seek another approach capable of halting the pace of the North Korean nuclear program, especially after their latest nuclear test and threats of a fifth nuclear test?!

121

https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R41259.pdf

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Third topic: Eastern Ukraine

Overview .......................................................................................... 56

II.

Ukrainian Revolution ..................................................................... 57

III.

Crisis Begins .................................................................................... 58 a. Crimea..................................................................................... i. US and EU Response to the Crimean Crisis ................ ii. NATO Response to the Crimean Crisis ........................ iii. Impacts of Sanctions over the Russian Economy ........ b. The â&#x20AC;&#x2014;ATOâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC; zone war ............................................................... i. Minsk-1 ........................................................................ ii. Minsk-2 ........................................................................

IV.

Future Scenarios ............................................................................. 63

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Eastern Ukraine and Crimea Overview Ukraine, with a size and population comparable to France, is a large, important, European state. It holds a sensitive position between Russia and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania. Many Russian politicians, as well as ordinary citizens, have never been fully acceptable to Ukraineâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s independence from the Soviet Union after its collapse in 1991; as a result there is a continuing belief among the Russians that Ukraine still belongs to the Russian Federation. It has been reported that in 2008, Russian President Vladimir Putin told U.S. President George Bush that Ukraine was not a state and that while the western part of the country may belong to Europe, eastern Ukraine was Russia`s. On the other hand, the U.S. and Europe believe that a unified, independent Ukraine is an important part of building a Europe whole, free, and at peace.122

122

https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33460.pdf

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Eastern Ukraine generally refers to territories of Ukraine east of the Dnieper River, particularly Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. Almost a third of the country's population lives within the region, which includes three cities with populations over a million. The majority of Eastern Ukraine's population is ethnic Ukrainians, while ethnic Russians form a significant minority. The most common language is Russian, due to the long-lasting domination of the language in government and the media in addition to the fact that when Ukraine became independent, there were no Ukrainian-language schools in Donetsk. On the other hand, the Republic of Crimea lies on a peninsula stretching out from the south of Ukraine between the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. It is separated from Russia to the east by the narrow Kerch Strait. The majority of Crimea‘s populations identify themselves as ethnic Russians and speaks Russian - a legacy of Russia's 200-year involvement in the region. Sevastopol in Crimea is also the historic base of Russia's Black Sea Fleet. The 1996 Ukrainian constitution stipulated that Crimea would have autonomous republic status, but insisted that Crimean legislation must be in keeping with that of Ukraine. Crimea has its own parliament and government with powers over agriculture, public infrastructure and tourism.123

Ukrainian Revolution: Since Ukraine achieved independence in 1991, Ukraine‘s political scene has been dominated by ―oligarchs‖ –very rich businessmen with a great deal of political influence- (mostly based in eastern and southern Ukraine), who have divided up the country‘s economic assets among themselves and raided the government budget for their own profit. Pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych, who was elected in February 2010, drew his main support from oligarchs from the Donets Basin (Donbas) region of eastern Ukraine. His government was criticized for massive high-level corruption committed by himself and his very close associates. He was also condemned with a poor human rights record, as his government targeted political opposition leaders and imprisoned many of them most noticeable is opposition leader Yulia Tymshenko.

123

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-18287223

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This situation didn`t stand for long, In November 2013 there was a rising rage in the Ukrainian streets; especially in Kiev in the cityâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s main square, as Yanukovich turned down closer trade ties with the EU, accepting $15 billion from the Russian government. Ramifications for this outrage were the overthrowing of Yanukovich on the 22nd of February 2014 and an interim president was named. This was recognized by the Russian government as a coup d'ĂŠtat.

Crisis Begins A. Crimea: On February 27th, 2014, pro-Russian gunmen seized key buildings in the Crimean capital Simferopol; armed men took control of Simferopol and Sevastopol international airports and of the Crimean parliament. Within days, the Crimean parliament voted to join Russia and called for a referendum. Russia later admitted that its military helped the Crimean insurgents. On 16 March, 97% of referendum voters reportedly backed the proposal to join Russia. This referendum was a highly condemned act by the West and was not taken as a serious step of separation from the Ukrainian side. The Russian government considered the referendum to be legitimate and Russian president Putin signed a law annexing Crimea by Russia, and after two days he signed a bill to absorb Crimea into the Russian federation. On March 17th, the Crimean parliament declared its independence from the Ukrainian government and recognized itself as part of Russia again for the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union. After the annexation of Crimea by Russia, Russia increased the military presence in the area intensively and it was reported by the US and NATO that as many as 1000 Russian troops were present in the region of eastern Ukraine.124

US and EU response to the Crimean crisis: United States strongly condemned the Russian intrusion over the sovereignty of Ukraine concerning Crimea. The White House subsequently announced sanctions on unnamed Russian and Crimean individuals, said that any referendum would be illegitimate without the cooperation of the new government in Kiev, and called the crisis in Ukraine an "unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States".125 The European Union took a step toward more serious measures by suspending talks with Moscow on a wide-ranging political-economic pact and on liberalizing visa requirements to make it easier for Russians to travel to Europe. European leaders laid out a three-stage process that, absent progress, 124

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27308526

125

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-response-to-crimea-crisis-2014-3

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would next move to travel bans, asset seizures and the cancellation of a planned European UnionRussia summit meeting and eventually to broader economic measures.126

NATO response to the Crimean crisis: As a response to the Russian intervention over the integrity of Eastern Ukraine annexing Crimea, The NATO imposed economic sanctions on Russia that had resulted in an impact on both the Russian economy as well as the European economy. It was decided in July 2014 where, the United States in correspondence with the European Union, Canada along with other partners and allies come to term upon imposing sanctions on Russia, The sanctions were moreover empowered in September 2014 where the EU sanctions were reinforced after a lapse in July 2015 to be extended until January 2016, while the Canadian and the US sanctions remain to be open ended. There are three types of economic sanctions that had been imposed. First one forbids any accessibility to the Western financial markets or services entitles for the state-owned Russian enterprises whether in the banking, defense or energy systems. The second type of sanctions is placed upon the exports to Russia of high technology oil exploration and means of production. Finally the third one is an embargo imposed on exports of military and dual-use goods to Russia. The situation escalates whereas a response on behalf of Russia to these sanctions, Russia had imposed a ban itself on food imports coming from the Western countries in August 2014 and it continues to remain in action till today.

The impact of sanctions over the Russian economy: These sanctions had the greatest effect on the macroeconomic challenges which Russia had already been facing before in addition to the fall in oil prices rapidly at the end of 2014, therefore the combined effect of these sanctions side by side to the fall of the oil prices resulted in an extreme downward pressure on the value of the Ruble and with the banned access to financing it forced the state of Russia to use part of its exchange foreign reserves. Consequently Russia entered to a recession with a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of -2.2% for the first quarter of 2015 in comparison to the first quarter of 2014. Itâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s expected in 2015 a fall in real GDP by 3% - 3, 5% and maximum growth to 0% in 2016 In conclusion the economic sanctions imposed on Russia had been successful in causing damage to the Russian economy.127

126

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/07/world/europe/ukraine-sanctions.html?hpw&rref=world&_r=1

127

Edward Hunter Christie, NATOâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s defense Economist, NATO Review. www.nato.int/docu/review/2015/Russia/sanctions-after-crimea-have-they-worked/EN/index.htm

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B. The ATO zone War: Not so far from Crimea, the Ukrainian government is still struggling to control the Donbas region. Consisting of the oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk, the Donbas region witnessed a series of events and disruptions which started right after the annexation of Crimea to Russia. Demonstrations broke out in March 2014 without a unified aim. The demands varied from the autonomy under a federalized Ukraine to independence and joining Russia. The situation started to escalate since April 2014 as pro-Russian activists held some rallies and occupied vital buildings like the Regional State Administration and Ministry of Internal Affairs buildings in Donetsk and the Security Service of Ukraine in Luhansk demanding a referendum like that held in Crimea in March to re-define the status of both oblasts. The demands weren‘t met by the transitional government of Ukraine and consequently the separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk declared ―The People‘s Republic of Donetsk (DNR)‖ and ―The People‘s Republic of Luhansk (LNR)‖ respectively in late April. Both groups planned two referendums in May 2014 to define the statuses of both regions and started to threaten Kiev they would start insurgent attacks if their demands weren‘t met. 128 On May 11, 2014 the armed separatist forces, in the guise of the ―Donetsk People‘s Republic‖ and the ―Luhansk People‘s Republic,‖ held ―referendums‖ on their ―sovereignty.‖ According to the organizers, the question of independence from Ukraine was approved by 89% of those voting in Donetsk region, and by 96% in Luhansk region, with a turnout of 75%. No international observers monitored the vote, and witnesses reported rampant irregularities. The leaders of the ―Donetsk People‘s Republic‖ and the ―Luhansk People‘s Republic‖ declared their entities to be sovereign states after the vote. The Ukrainian government denounced the referendums as illegal.129 Later in May, there was a confrontation at the Donetsk National Airport between the militants and the Ukrainian National Guard resulting in killing about forty insurgents. In June, the city of Mariupol was announced by the Ukrainian government as the new capital of the Donetsk oblast instead of the occupied Donetsk city. 130 Russian tanks started to appear inside Donetsk as Ukraine claimed that Russia allowed those tanks alongside with heavy weapons to be delivered to the separatists. Newly elected President (Petro Poroshenko) declared a unilateral cease-fire by the Ukrainian side which lasted from June 23rd to June 30th and one day after it 1000 insurgents were reported to be killed according to the Internal Affairs spokesman.131 In July and August 2014, Ukrainian successfully forced the gunmen out of their strongholds in Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, and other towns, and began to move on separatist forces in the key cities of 128

http://m.kp.ru/daily/26225.7/3107725/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/ukraines-rebels-say-they-are-seeking-a-mandate-not-independence-inreferendum/2014/05/11/ac02688a-d8dc-11e3-aae8-c2d44bd79778_story.html 130 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28177020 131 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28012080 129

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Donetsk and Luhansk. Meanwhile, the tragedy of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 occurred. The plane flying over Ukraine was brought down by a surface-launched missile on July 17, 2014 killing all 283 passengers and 15 crew members on board, the crew was all Malaysian and about two-thirds of the passengers were Dutch. Accusations flew on both sides as to who fired this missile, but the Dutch government lengthy investigation later determined that the missile was fired by the separatists‘ forces using a Russian-supplied Buk-missile.132 In late August and early September, Russia increased its support to the separatists, by deploying thousands of Russian troops to fight in eastern Ukraine (an allegation that Russia still denies despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary). Although denied by Moscow, Russian troops and the separatists were apparently supplied with tanks, armored personnel carriers, surface-to-air missiles, and other military equipment from Russia. As a result, Ukrainian forces lost ground and suffered heavy casualties.133

Minsk-1: On 5 September 2015, the first Minsk protocol for ceasing fire was signed after Petro Poroshenko, the Ukrainian President, promised of giving Donetsk and Luhansk a special status and Russian officials found the proposals satisfying. The signing of the agreement led to the end of the massive Russianled offensive on Ukrainian forces but did not fully end the fighting. Nor were any of the points of the Minsk-1 protocol fully implemented. Fighting continued, resulting in over 1,300 deaths since the Minsk protocol was signed, and Ukrainian officials indicated that the separatists had seized over 500 sq. km of Ukrainian territory since the protocol‘s signature.134

Minsk-2: Recognizing the failure of the Minsk-1 protocol to end the conflict and begin the process of achieving a political resolution to the Donbas crisis, the presidents of France, Russia, and Ukraine and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany met again in Minsk in early February2015 to try to secure a new agreement to stop the fighting. On February 12, a cease-fire agreement was signed to take effect on February 15. The Minsk-2 agreement entered into force on February 15, 2015. 135 Here are the key points of the plan (as released in Russian): 1. Immediate, full bilateral ceasefire as of February15. 2. Withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both sides, to be completed within 14 days. 3. Effective monitoring regime for the ceasefire and withdrawal of heavy weapons by the OSCE. 4. Launch of dialogue on modalities of local elections in accordance with Ukrainian legislation. 5. Pardon and amnesty of figures involved in the conflict. 6. Release of all hostages and other illegally detained people, based on the ―all for all ―principle. 132

―MH17 Ukraine Disaster: Dutch Safety Board Blames Missile,‖ BBC News, October 15, 2015 https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33460.pdf 134 http://www.skynews.com.au/news/world/mideast/2014/10/23/ukraine-rebels-vow-to-take-back-cities.html 135 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11408266/Minsk-agreement-on-Ukraine-crisis-text-infull.html 133

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7. Safe delivery of humanitarian aid to those in need, based on an international mechanism. 8. Restoration of full social and economic links with affected areas 9. Full Ukrainian control over its border with Russia throughout the conflict zone. 10. Withdrawal of all foreign armed groups, weapons, and mercenaries from Ukrainian territory. 11. Constitutional reform in Ukraine with decentralization as a key element; a new constitution by the end of 2015. 12. Local elections in Donetsk and Luhansk regions to be held according OSCE standards. 136 Later in February, prisoners‘ exchange took place, freeing 139 Ukrainian soldiers for 52 separatists in line with the Minsk agreement.137 The DNR‘s Prime Minister claimed they had freed the buffer zone agreed on in Minsk from about 90 % of their heavy weaponry but kept his threat to get that recovered if the Ukrainian government didn‘t fulfill the agreement‘s requirements. 138 In March and April 2015, fighting continued in several areas like Avdivka, Shyrokine and Berdyansk using weapons as grenades, mortar and machine guns causing several casualties. This escalation led the Foreign Minister of Russia, Sergey Lavrov, to admit that both sides violated the Minsk Agreement several times. On the other hand, Petro Poroshenko assured that the war wouldn‘t end until Ukraine recovered Crimea and the Donbas.139 In late August, the government and the separatists exerted some efforts to cease fire completely by September 1st and casualties actually decreased in the last 3 days of August. However, that didn‘t work as violence continued all over September. On September 30th, the leaders of the DNR and the LNR announced that they signed an agreement to withdraw heavy equipment including tanks from the frontline in the Donbas region but later they announced postponing its implementation as they accused the Ukrainian army of bombing Donetsk.140 Later in October, the Normandy Format, France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine met in France to negotiate for a solution to a total cease fire. According to the official statements of the government and the rebels, October witnessed a real ceasefire as attacks, confrontations and casualties decreased. The situation in the Donbas stayed calm till November 7th when the governmental military announced 13 ceasefire violation cases and the situation kept on worsening causing increasing number of casualties and targeting the civilian infrastructure. On December 17th, Putin announced the presence of Russian military personnel in Eastern Ukraine but denied the presence of any regular troops.141 By the beginning of 2016, little had been accomplished in fully implementing the Minsk-2 provisions despite the promises by both sides to do so. The cease-fire continues to face challenges, as sporadic 136

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31436513 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31571465 138 http://novorossia.su/ru/node/15493 139 http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150430/1021579054.html 137

140 141

http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-russian-backed-rebels-agree-withdraw-weapons/27278407.html http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-putin-ukraine-idUSKBN0U019G20151217

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fighting flare up and Ukrainian soldiers and rebels continue to be suffering casualties. Some of the rebels` heavy weapons and military personnel supplied by the Russians have been withdrawn from the front lines but have not been removed from Ukraine altogether. And while President Poroshenko won a hard-fought victory in initially moving legislation to grant more autonomy for the Donbas called for in the Minsk-2 agreement through the Parliament, he still does not have the necessary votes to pass this as an amendment to the constitution and is unlikely to provide those votes unless major progress is made by the rebel side. On the other hand, the separatists seem to have no intention to provide free and fair elections in the disputed regions. On March 3rd, 2016, The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights announced that the 2-year conflict has resulted in around 30,000 casualties including at least 9,167 deaths. A Normandy Format Foreign Ministers meeting took place in Paris on March 4th with nearly no results.142

Future Scenarios: As the Minsk-2 agreement struggles, Ukraine still faces a huge challenge on how to deter the Separatists` progress in Eastern Ukraine in a way that ensures that the country still remains an independent and unified one. Can The US and Europe apply new sanctions on Russia in order to pressure Putin`s government to step down their support to the Separatists? What kind of aid can the US provide to Ukraine so that it can keep up with the challenges against the separatists in the Donbas region?

142

http://www.rferl.org/content/france-germany-ukraine-russian-diplomats-aim-election-eastern-ukraine-midyear-minskaccord/27588523.html

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Committee on Finance

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Prepared By: Chairman Mohammad Al-Sheraie Ranking Member Ahmed Hatem

Vice-Chairlady Yousra Kamal Party Consultant Nourin Mohamed

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Jurisdiction The U.S. Senate Committee on Finance is one of the original committees in the Senate, and was first established on December 11, 1815. The Committee concerns itself with matters relating to taxation and other revenue measures and those relating to the insular possessions; bonded debt of the United States; customs, collection districts, and ports of entry and delivery; health programs under the Social Security Act and health programs financed by a specific tax or trust fund; national social security; reciprocal trade agreements; tariff and import quotas; and the transportation of dutiable goods. In addition the Committee has extensive oversight powers. It has authority to investigate, review and evaluate existing laws, and the agencies that implement them. Due to its wide authority, it is considered to be one of the most powerful committees in Congress.

Subcommittees: 1- Subcommittee on Energy, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure 2- Subcommittee on Fiscal Responsibility and Economic Growth 3- Subcommittee on Health Care 4- Subcommittee on International Trade, Customs, and Global Competitiveness 5- Subcommittee on Social Security, Pensions and Family Policy 6- Subcommittee on Taxation and IRS Oversight

Chairman Orrin Hatch

Ranking Member Ron Wyden

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First Topic: Minimum Wage I.

Introduction ..................................................................................... 67

II.

History of the Minimum Wage in the United States ................... 68

III.

Economic Impacts ........................................................................... 69 a. Employment ............................................................................ b. Prices....................................................................................... c. Poverty .................................................................................... d. Inequality ................................................................................

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Raising the Minimum Wage Introduction: The minimum wage is a controversial issue regarding labor economics, not only because it contributes as a major policy between employers and employees, but because it affects employment rate, poverty rate, and other societal issues. The employment dynamics â&#x20AC;&#x201C; the rate of net job growth â&#x20AC;&#x201C; is one of the most, if not the most factor that is interrelated with the minimum wage. Currently, the federal minimum wage in the United States is $7.25. The minimum wage is a payment policy between the employers and employees that is adopted by a lot of countries. The United States adopted this method in 1938, with a $0.25 wage floor. The minimum wage is usually the least amount of money that employers pay to employees. The minimum wage rate is not fixed all over the United States, meaning that some states abide by the federal minimum wage, and some states either set it higher or lower than the federal minimum wage.143 Additionally, some cities and states have planned to increase their minimum wage during the year. For example, in the beginning of 2015, the minimum wage in Maryland was $8.00 per hour, but it rose to $8.25 as of July 1 of 2015. Los Angeles County passed a legislation to raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour over the next 5 years. Seattle and San Francisco are also raising the minimum wage gradually to reach $15 per hour.144 Minimum wage is a policy adopted by governments to ensure many economic purposes and determine how labor market should work on and to increase employment in order to stimulate the market economy overall and raising living standards.145 Minimum wage policies are usually established by contract or legislation by the government through political power. As such, it is illegal to pay an employee less than the minimum wage. Generally, the minimum wage policy tries to protect workers and employees from exploitation or misuse and permitting them to afford the cost of the basic necessities of life.

143

http://www.dol.gov/minwage/minwage-gdp-history.htm http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2015/07/22/los-angeles-county-takes-first-step-toward-creating-15-per-hourminimum-wage/ 145 http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2013/ted_20130325.htm 144

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History of the Minimum Wage in the United States: The first attempt to establish a federal minimum wage was in 1933 as part of the National Industrial Recovery Act but it was not the first in the United States history as Massachusetts was the first to enact minimum wage laws issued by Congress in 1912 covering women and children. 146 The 1933 Act introduced a $0.25 per hour standard, which was set but ruled unconstitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court because of restricting the employers' rights to set the price for their labor. So, the minimum wage was abolished to be reintroduced in 1938 at $0.25 per hour under President Roosevelt's the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) which was signed to protect American workers from being exploited by covering youth employment standards, overtime pay, and standards for government employees at the local, state, and federal levels by creating a mandatory federal minimum wage to maintain a minimum standard of living necessary for health and labor's efficiency without substantially affecting employment rate.147 This law was welcomed by workers who were forced to work for longer hours for low wage. On the other hand, it was extremely opposed by many employers and fiscal conservatives who argued that a minimum wage will obstruct business owners. The federal minimum wage was set up as not to rise with inflation but only to rise with congressional action. So, Congress raises the minimum wage only during times of economic booming- fast economic growth- or low unemployment rates. The minimum wage has been raised 22 times by 12 different presidents since 1938. The graph below shows the minimum wages imposed from 1938 till 2015.148 The nominal values are the minimum wage rates while the real values are the minimum wage corresponding values in todayâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s dollars. For instance, the first federal minimum wage was $0.25 that would be worth $4.13 today.

146

William P. Quigley, "'A Fair Day's Pay For A Fair Day's Work': Time to Raise and Index the Minimum Wage", 27 St. Mary's L. J. 513, 516 (1996) 147 http://www.dol.gov/dol/aboutdol/history/flsa1938.htm 148 http://www.dol.gov/whd/minwage/chart.htm

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Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Note: Figures adjusted to 2013 dollars using the CPI-U.

Economic Impacts: Minimum wage is one of the labor policies that affect the nation's economy and people's welfare. Minimum wage aims to help not only those who are facing extreme poverty, but also human dignity. In addition, minimum wage policy affects the decisions of producers and consumers and affects the whole economy. Some economists believe that raising the minimum wage would increase the standard of living and reduces poverty. They also believe that it will ensure equality among workers by giving them a fair wage without discrimination by gender or race. For the whole economy, supporters believe that minimum wage spurs consumption, which means putting more money into the economy by allowing workers to spend more. The Council of Economic Advisers expected more than 7 million workers to benefit from increasing their minimum wage by 2017.149

149

https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/minimum_wage_report2.pdf

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Source: Council of Economic Advisers

The Council of Economic Advisers also summarized its findings:150 1) Raising wages can increase productivity: raising the minimum wage would increase the motivations for workers, and improve their physical and mental health, which would make the workers more productive. 2) Raising wages can reduce turnover rate: Higher wages make workers feel more comfortable, satisfied, and less likely to quit. These lead to reduce the amount of money spent by the business owners in recruiting and training new workers. 3) Raising wages can reduce absenteeism: The absence rate would decrease when the workers are paid higher wages. On the other hand, some researchers claim that raising the minimum wage increases unemployment, harm less skilled labor and increase prices. The main findings of researches are that minimum wage forces the employers to hire fewer employees because they have to pay more to their 150

https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/final_min_wage_slides_-_no_embargo.pdf

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workers and the cost will increase. Other opponents say that it can increase the prices as businesses must raise their prices to adjust the higher wage and keep the profit stable. In 1995, the Congressional Joint Economic Committee published a review of 50 years of academic research on the minimum wage151. The study found many negative impacts of increasing minimum wage, the findings include: reducing training for workers, increasing job turnover, reducing school attendance, and encouraging employers to hire illegal workers. Also, because the minimum wage levels are different from one state to another, some economists believe that this would have negative impacts on investments, as investors would like to invest their money in states with lower minimum wage to minimize the cost and to maximize the profit. In addition to some existed industries which are most likely to shift their investments to other states with lower minimum wage.152 Employment: The impact of raising the minimum wage on the employment is studied by many economists and researchers. There are different findings and opinions concerning the impacts of raising the minimum wage on the employment. Some studies found that there is a little or no response from the employers on raising the minimum wage, because employers can shift this increase to the consumer by increasing prices. In 1994, after an increase in the minimum wage in New Jersey, David Card and Alan Krueger made a famous study comparing the fast food employment in New Jersey (where the minimum wage was raised) and Pennsylvania (where the minimum wage was constant) after and before the rise, and they didnâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;t find a significant effect on employment.153 Another study in 2010 looked at U.S. restaurant employment in 288 different counties with different minimum wage rates. The study found that minimum wage does not reduce employment.154 Some economists think that raising the minimum wage will increase their purchasing power and allow them to spend more, leading to an increase in the demand of goods and services. The producers (business owners) would hire more workers to produce more and meet the increasing demand. Doug Hall and David Cooper (2013) said "Using standard fiscal multipliers to analyze the jobs impact of an increase in compensation of low-wage workers and decrease in corporate profits that result from a minimum-wage increase, we find that increasing the national minimum wage from $7.25 to $10.10 per hour by July 1, 2015, would result in a net increase in economic activity of approximately $32.6 billion over the phase-in period, and over that period would generate approximately 140,000 new jobs ",155 which means that an increase in the minimum wage from $7.25 per hour to $10.10 per hour will 151

http://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/c876c468-ffca-47ed-9468-7193d734bde9/50-years-of-research-on-theminimum-wage---february-15-1995.pdf 152 Wilson, M. 2012. The Negative Effects of Minimum Wage Laws. Policy Analysis (701). 153 Card, D. and A. Krueger. 1994. Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. American Economic Review 84, 4: 772- 98. 154 Arindrajit Dube, T. William Lester, and Michael Reich. 2010. Minimum Wage Effects Across State Borders: Estimates Using Contiguous Counties. IRLE Working Paper No. 157-07. 155 http://www.epi.org/publication/bp357-federal-minimum-wage-increase/

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increase the earnings of low-wage workers by about $40 billion over the time period. The result would be a significant increase in gross domestic product (GDP) -the value of all goods and services produced within a country‘s borders in a specific time period‖ and employment which would stimulate the whole economy-. The main purpose of the minimum wage policy is helping the poor and low- income people to earn enough income. However, minimum wage policy may force the employers to reduce hiring workers to reduce the cost and to offset the increase in the minimum wage. It also may discourage employers and business owners from hiring low-skilled workers. If this policy reduces employment, especially for the low-skill workers, it will increase the poor and low-income families suffering instead of helping them. Notwithstanding using of distinctive models to comprehend the impacts of minimum wage, most economists concur that businesses will make changes to adjust to the higher costs after the minimum wage raise. The primary finding of economic hypothesis and exact research in the course of the recent years is that an increase in minimum wage tends to increase unemployment. The higher the minimum wage in respect to competitive-market wage levels, the greater job loss that happens. Increasing in the minimum wage level will increase the total cost for the producers, which may lead the producers to layoff some workers or to stop hiring new workers and this will lead to a reduction in employment. While minimum wage apparently intends to enhance the financial property of the poor workers, the negative impacts of a minimum wage policy have been found to fall excessively on the least skilled and on the disadvantaged individuals, including the low-skilled, youth, disabled, ethnic minorities, and immigrants156. As the Nobel laureate economist Milton Friedman observed in his studies: ―The real tragedy of minimum wage laws is that they are supported by well-meaning groups who want to reduce poverty. But the people who are hurt most by higher minimum wage rates are the most poverty stricken.‖157

156

―Standard economic theory predicts that minimum wage increases do not reduce profits because low wage firms are usually too small and too competitive to absorb the extra costs. It is then not surprising that empirical evidence is scanty on profit effects.‖ Sara Lemos, ―The Effect of the Minimum Wage on Prices,‖ Institute for the Study of Labor (Germany), Discussion Paper no. 1072, March 2004. 157 Milton Friedman, quoted in Keith B. Leffler, ―Minimum Wages, Welfare, and Wealth Transfers to the Poor,‖ Journal of Law and Economics 21, no. 2 (October 1978): 345–58.

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The following supply and demand curve shows how the competitive labor market works.

Source: CATO institute158

The graph assumes a competitive labor market with market demand curve for labor (DD), and market supply curve for labor (SS). The intersection between the two curves leads to the competitive wage, (Wc), and employment, (Ec). If minimum wage increased to (Wm), employment will decrease to (Em). Evidence of negative effects of raising the minimum wage appeared when the U.S. government imposed a new federal minimum wage in 2007 on American Samoa and the Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI). While this increase had good intentionsâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;a reply to the islanders' wages being lower than that of their mainland counterpartsâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;the results were not as expected. As indicated by another report from the United States General Accountability Office (GAO), the 19 percent decrease in employment in the workforce that American Samoa has encountered since 2008 was main consequence of imposing minimum hourly wages across different industries. The islandsâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC; essential industry is tuna fish canning, with major employers Chicken of the Sea (Seafood company) shutting and Starkist (Tuna company) reporting enormous layoffs. In 2008 the number of workers in the canneries was somewhat more than 19,000 yet has following tumbled to 15,400.159 In general, in the competitive labor market, employers and business owners offer for the most productive workers and the subsequent compensation or wage distribution reflects the productivity of those workers. If the government imposes a minimum wage, those workers whose productivity falls under the minimum wage level will find few or no job opportunities, as the employers or business owners will depend on high-productivity workers whose productivity is higher than the minimum 158 159

Wilson, M. 2012. The Negative Effects of Minimum Wage Laws. Policy Analysis (701). http://www.acton.org/pub/commentary/2011/07/06/minimum-wage-law-backfires-american-samoa

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wage level (high-skilled laborers). Simply, employers will substitute their lowest-skilled workers with somewhat higher-skilled workers in reply to increases in the minimum wage to compensate these increases. So, the basic theory of competitive labor market wage rate will reduce employment.160 Prices: Minimum wage is directly related to inflation, which is a sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services over a period of time. The most controversial question related to prices is: Is raising the minimum wage needed to adjust the increasing inflation rates? Or it could lead to an increase in the general prices and inflation rates? Some economists say that the federal minimum wage has to be raised in order to account for inflation, which rises every year while the minimum wage has only been raised three times in the past three decades. For example, when the minimum wage was $1.60 in 1968 that is equal to $10.86 in 2015 dollars:161

160

Randall K. Filer, Daniel S. Hamermesh, and Albert E. Rees, The Economics of Work and Pay (New York: HarperCollins, 1996). 161 http://money.cnn.com/interactive/economy/minimum-wage-since-1938/

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Since the last increase in the minimum wage in 2009, to the current $7.25 per hour, the federal minimum wage has lost about 8.1% of its purchasing power to inflation. 162 So it is important to adjust the minimum wage for inflation in order to sustain the purchasing power- especially of low-wage workers-, with inflation, and allow them to face the increasing inflation rates. However, raising the minimum wage could increase the prices or cost-push inflation which is inflation caused by an increase in prices of inputs like labor, raw material, etc. From producer perspective, increasing minimum wage means increasing the total cost and decreasing the profit, so the producer may tend to increase the prices to meet the higher wages. A 2011 study of quick-service restaurants showed that two-thirds of the minimum wage increases were offset by higher prices on their menus, and that higher prices were instead of a reduction in employment and hours to adjust profits of the restaurants owners. So employment is not decreased if firms are able to pass on higher costs associated with minimum wage shock to consumers.163 In addition to a new study in 2015 done by Purdue University that predicted paying fast food restaurant employees $15 per hour would increase the prices of those businesses by 4.3 percent.164 The decision of increasing the prices becomes easier for the producers in two cases: The first one is the monopolistic market ―a type of market that features one if not all, of the traits of monopoly such as high price levels, supply constraints, or excessive barriers to enter the market‖. In the monopolistic market the producers or firms are price maker not price taker, so they control the prices and can respond to any increase in the minimum wage by increasing prices 165. The second case is the inelastic goods ―there is a small change in the demand when prices change a lot (for example medicines, whatever the change in the prices of the medicine, demand for medicine is unresponsive to this change)‖ in this case the producers know that goods they provide to the consumers are inelastic and however they change the price the demand will not change or will have a small change, so producers can shift any increase in minimum wages to the consumers by increasing the prices. Poverty: In an attempt to decrease poverty level in the U.S, as it is a basic right to citizens, some researchers pointed to the consequential benefits of raising the minimum wage, but, on the other hand, some add that this is not the solution and it would rather risk increasing the poverty rate in the U.S. due to many reasons. In a zoomed-in argument on the minimum wage, some economists argue that by raising the minimum wage to $10.10, many people will be lifted out of poverty.166

162

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/07/23/5-facts-about-the-minimum-wage/ Hirsch, Kaufman, and Zelenska. Minimum Wage Channels of Adjustment. Industrial Relations, forthcoming 164 http://www.purdue.edu/newsroom/releases/2015/Q3/study-raising-wages-to-15-an-hour-for-limited-service-restaurantemployees-would-raise-prices-4.3-percent.html 165 Aaronson, D. and E. French. (2007). Output Prices and the Minimum Wage. Employment Policies Institute. 166 "The Economic Case for Raising the Minimum Wage." February 12, 2014.https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/final_min_wage_slides_-_no_embargo.pdf 163

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Source: Council of Economic Advisers

For instance, a single parent who has two children working in a full time job at the current federal minimum wage ($7.25), their earnings would be around $15,000, and living at 76% of the federal poverty level (FPL) ―the minimum amount of gross income that a family needs to cover its necessities like food, clothing, shelter, transportation‖. If minimum wage increases to $9, the same family would live at 94% of the federal poverty level.167 On the other hand, some researchers pointed out that increasing minimum wage would not affect the poverty level significantly; According to the Congressional Budget Office report, raising the minimum wage from $7.25 to $10.10 per hour will diminish the number of poor people by 900,000, which is considered a comparatively small number of the 16.5 million people that should allegedly take advantage from the raise. The reason behind this problem is that only 7 percent of minimum wage workers have full-time jobs, which means that poverty doesn‘t exist because people are not being paid enough; it rather exists because they are not working or not working enough.168

167

Mejeur, Jeanne. " The Pro Arguments The Con Arguments Congress Stalls, States Act The Indexing Option Public Opinion Federal Proposals Minimum Wage Rates for 2014 Burgernomics Who Earns Minimum Wage? Additional Resources CONTACT State Legislatures Magazine." http://www.ncsl.org/research/labor-and-employment/maximumdivide-on-minimum-wage.aspx. 168 https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/113th-congress-2013-2014/reports/44995-MinimumWage_OneColumn.pdf

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In addition, economists argued that if familiesâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC; incomes increase with the increasing of the minimum wage; taking them out of poverty, raising minimum wage could also eliminate some jobs for low-wage workers, which means, causing poverty again.169 Opponents of raising the minimum wage suggested better ways to address poverty, because of the lack of progress in this issue; they suggested providing income tax credits for low-income workers or tax policies that encourage low-income families to gradually develop and save money. Encouraging low-income families to work is another approach; but would it be as sufficient as raising the minimum wage because the proponents justified the lack of progress so far, it is because of the real value of the minimum wage which has fallen more than a third from its peak in the late 60â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s. And they assure that later on, raising the minimum wage and indexing it to inflation would help to raise wages and reduce poverty.

169

"The Effects of a Minimum-Wage Increase on Employment and Family Income." Congressional Budget Office. February 18, 2014. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/44995

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Inequality: Some economists and researchers think that raising the minimum wage counts as a successful policy because it addresses the growing problem of rising income inequality. Proponents state that progress may be made if the minimum wage is raised sufficiently, justifying their approach by giving example when the minimum wage was equal to 54% of average hourly earnings in the private sector in 1968. Today, it comes in at 36%, according to the Congressional Research Service. Generally Speaking, Minimum wages can reduce wage inequality by moving low-wage workers up the wage distribution; effectively truncating some part of the low-wage distribution, to the extent of having positive spillover effects, raising the wages of some low-wage workers who are paid above the minimum wage (so as to restore the former relative wages) this could also raise the wages of other low-wage workers and reduce the gap between them and the higher-wage workers.170 While, other economists are arguing that there is a negative employment impact of the elimination of some low-wage jobs; stressing that the reduction in wage inequality from raising minimum wage shouldn‘t be considered as an advantage of raising minimum wage, because, at the same time it eliminates some jobs. Also, raising minimum wage could reduce training and human capital formation, which results in an increase in wages inequality among workers. By looking to the very low-wage and middle-wage workers, we find that there is a gap between the two categories. Raising the minimum wage may make the workers happier because they will receive more money. But actually, it wouldn‘t do much to reduce this gap. The only solution to shrink this gap is when the employers offset the increase occurred in the cost (from increasing the minimum wage) by freezing or reducing the wages of higher income employees which is known as ―Wage Compression‖. 171 Some Researchers agree that it will reduce inequality but with doubts about its affectivity and sufficiency, they simply ask two questions; how much would the reduction be and for whom. They illustrate that it is not going to have a huge impact. As a justification, co-director of the Center on Children and Families at Brookings Institution, poverty and fiscal expert Isabel Sawhill added that ―there's no politically feasible policy that would have a big impact,‖ The minimum wage usually propagates the controversy due to its uncertain results on the economy. There are two main perspectives regarding the minimum wage, both of them have their advantages and disadvantages. Proponents of the minimum wage say that it increases the standard of living, quality of life, reduces inequality, decreases poverty, and boosts working morale. In contrast, opponents say that it reduces the employment rate drastically, especially in case of under-developed talents, increases prices and the poverty rate.172

170

"Minimum Wages: Issues and Options for Ontario." Minimum Wages: Issues and Options for Ontario. http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/publications/2007/Gunderson/. 171 http://wol.iza.org/articles/wage-compression-and-gender-pay-gap.pdf 172 http://www.nber.org/papers/w19262.pdf

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Second Topic: Cuban Embargo I.

Definition of the Embargo......................................................... 80

II.

Economics as a Power Tool ....................................................... 81

III.

The Difference between U.S and Cuban Economy................. 81 a. U.S. Economy ......................................................................... b. Cuban Economy .....................................................................

IV.

History of the U.S. Cuban Relations ........................................ 84

Economic Impacts ...................................................................... 87

a. Agriculture Products.......................................................... b. Telecommunications Industry ........................................... c. Tourism.............................................................................. VI.

Social Impacts ............................................................................ 90

VII.

Political Impacts ......................................................................... 91

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Cuban Embargo Definition of the Embargo: Embargo is an order from a governmental commerce agency to ban or restrict trade and merchant ships from or to its ports and is usually imposed as a result of political or economic conflict between states with a purpose of hindering and creating circumstances for a certain foreign country's governing body.173

An example on embargo is the embargo act of 1807 which was imposed against Britain and France during the Napoleonic War due to violations of the U.S. neutral position. Economic coercion was the response to the British Royal navy's forcing of thousands of American seamen to serve on its warships. The embargo banned U.S. ships from leaving ports, but, on the other hand, the British were still able to export their goods to the United States through crossing Canadian borders so the financial outcome was not in favor of the United States.174 Another example in 1973, during the Arab-Israeli War, Arab member countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) imposed an embargo on petroleum and oil export or production to the United States along with all countries that supported Israel such as Netherlands, Portugal, and South Africa as a response to the U.S. decision to re-supply the Israeli military for the Israeli welfare in the post-war peace negotiations. The impact of the embargo has shifted the global financial balance of power to OPEC countries and resulted in a worldwide inflation. The embargo has demonstrated OPEC countries power in specific diplomatic and economic power as the largest oil

173 174

http://www.monticello.org/site/research-and-collections/embargo-1807#Non-Importation_Acts https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/oil-embargo

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supplier.175 The following graph shows the impact of OPEC embargo on oil prices as it has shown a great hike during the period of the embargo.176 Economics as a Power Tool: Hard power is the use of either military or economic means to influence the behavior or interests of political bodies, and an embargo is a power that is linked to the possession of tangible resources such as territory, natural resources, or economy.177 Thus, instead of war, economic power with countries that rely on aids can easily be induced and coerced. Embargoes have been used over the past few centuries as an alternative to wars to solve disputes and intervene in humanitarian crises, but embargo is not only used for supporting human rights and democracy but also for preventing weapons proliferations and even pleading for a certain animal species: such as the incidental catch of dolphins instead of fishing. It can also be against nations that do not maintain the global pollution control requirements.178 The purpose behind embargoes is not only weakening a nation's economy but also its global diplomatic and economic competitiveness because global trade is critical for a country's strength; therefore, neither diplomatic nor economic will be achieved under embargo or without exposure to international marketplace.179 Embargo is a threatening tool in international disputes especially in the increasingly global market place where countries depend on financial flows from international trade and access to markets.180 Also, it is effective at modifying a certain country‘s behavior because the sanctions are imposed quickly and avoid high economic or political costs. Embargos were proven effective in influencing foreign policy as in most of the cases post Second World War (WWII), they had successfully achieved their stated goals in nearly half of the cases (twenty-seven successes out of sixty-one cases)and since 1970, over a third of multilateral sanctions scored as a success (twenty successes out of fifty-three cases).181 The Difference between U.S. Economy and Cuban Economy: The urge that constructs the interactive opposition between capitalism and communism is far relative to the history of humanity. Bearing in mind the historical thread during 1848 when Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels published their ―Communist Manifesto‖; the world back then, lacked the concepts of communism. The United States is known for its capitalist morals & ideologies, whilst the Cuban government is known for adopting Karl Marx‘s communist theories and ideologies. U.S. Economy: Capitalism is mainly based upon conceptualizing free enterprise and private ownership of businesses. An individual can control the means of production, pricing, and distribution of profit. The United 175

http://www.economist.com/node/8058039 http://www.eia.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/chronology/petroleumchronology2000.htm 177 Daryl Copeland (Feb 2, 2010). "Hard Power Vs. Soft Power". The Mark. Retrieved 26 April 2012. 178 http://archives.usaengage.org/archives/news/96fallhbr.html 179 http://www.cfr.org/sanctions/economic-sanctions/p36259 180 https://agenda.weforum.org/2015/02/how-effective-are-economic-sanctions 181 http://www.gmu.edu/programs/icar/ijps/vol3_1/Delvic.html 176

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States is thought to have adopted capitalism; some economists relate this to the free economy. The competition is free from any control under the influence of the government, and it is believed in theory that successful businesses or products are the ones with the best quality and price. Capitalists believe that without any interference from the government, this government-free competition will ensure lowest prices in order for generation of sales from the corporations. In a capitalist system, prices will be determined by how many products are there and how many customers want them, thereby; we ought to mention supply and demand. When supplies (goods and services) increase, prices drop. On the other hand, when demand increases, prices increase.182 A few characteristics of a capitalist system might include:      

Democratic government. Private ownership of businesses & companies. The market is mainly driven by free enterprise. The wealth is distributed unevenly amongst the people. The health and education services are provided by free entities and corporations. Freedom of press.

Capitalist ideology is adopted by most of the sovereign states, mainly; it depends on the urge of freedom of the people. Economists like Thomas Piketty said in context that when people compete against one another, they usually achieve great things; and that is a main pillar regarding capitalism. Justifiably, the uneven distribution of wealth is not only distributing wealth, but prizing efforts and talents. Generally, the American constitution provides the people with freedom of speech and act; thus, the government supposedly does not merely interfere in the decision making process of the citizens. This graph emphasizes the industrial production of the United States adopting a capitalist system.

182

http://www.ushistory.org/gov/13b.asp

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Cuban Economy: Being a totalitarian state (a government that subordinates the individual to the state and strictly controls all aspects of life by forcible measures), Cuba is one of the communist states. Fidel Castro adopted the communism concepts from the very beginning alongside the Soviet Union. But when the Soviet Union collapsed, Cuba marginalized its economic support allegedly; Cuba receives around 100,000 barrels of oil a day from Venezuela. The main value of the derivatives and the aspects of the communist ideology is that the core value is mainly dependent on reducing the economic gap between the rich and poor. Castroâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s point of debate is marginally justifiable when it comes to wealth distribution between people.183 Communism is constructed on ideas that would eliminate problems caused by capitalism. Some of the vapid characteristics adopted by communism: -The companies, services, and properties are owned by the government. -Free enterprise is not allowed. -The wealth is distributed equally amongst the population. -There is no freedom of press because it is controlled by the government. -Educational and health services are provided by the government.

183

http://www.heritage.org/index/country/cuba

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In Cuba, people are considered equal, and they are mainly dependent on one another in order to prosper in life. It is said that when people are equal, they work equally without slacking, thereby, achieving more work. The government is the central judge regarding wealth distribution so that they could distribute the wealth equally. Producing a proletariat human being (the class of wage earners, especially those who earn their living by manual labor or who are dependent for support on daily or casual employment; the working class); communism holds regard by distributing the country's wealth amongst the population. The following graph shows the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Cuba The paradoxical endless debate is because there are many controversies in economics and economic concepts. Like any other topic, U.S. economy (Capitalism), and Cuban economy (communism) is totally different when it comes to the economic impacts on these countries. History of the U.S. Cuban relations: After discovering Cuba in 1492 by Christopher Columbus, Cuba was colonized by Spain. Great Britain occupied Cuba in 1762, after that, Cuba was returned back to Spain in exchange for Florida. In 1898 war the Cuban and United States forces defeated Spain. Spain surrendered its sovereignty over Cuba and U.S. occupied it in order to protect the island. In 1902, when the Republic of Cuba was formally installed, the United States decided to give Cuba the independence under certain condition that the United States had the right to interfere in Cuba. In the late 1800s the United States had control over the Cuban sugar industry and was purchasing 87 percent of Cubaâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s exports. Also many American celebrities and tourists were visiting Havanaâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s resorts and casinos in the 1950s. Through Fulgencio Batista era, Cuba and the United States cooperated and the relations were stable among the countries.184 184

http://history.state.gov/countries/cuba

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However, in January 1959 Fidel Castro and his followers revolt against Fulgencio Batista, and established a revolutionary communist state. Castro nationalized all foreign property on Cuba, sized $1.8 billion of U.S assets (making it the biggest uncompensated taking of American property by a foreign government in U.S. history), raised the taxes on the American imports, and made trade deals with the Soviet Union.185 As a reply from the U.S. administration to the Cuban policies and the threat of the existence of a communist ally to the Soviet Union. The U.S. president Eisenhower signed a partial embargo on American exports to Cuba on October 1960, and he ended the diplomatic relations with Cuba and closed the U.S. embassy in Havana on January 1961.186 In 1961, President John Kennedy trained and armed Cuban exiles to overthrow Castro‘s regime which was known as Bay of Pigs Invasion. The trial failed as the Cuban armed forces defeated them. Then, the United States discovered that the Soviet Union placed nuclear missiles in Cuba to deter any future invasion attempt, which was known as ―Cuban missile crisis‖. So on Feb 1962, John Kennedy signed an embargo upon all trade between the United States and Cuba. In February 1963, the U.S. prohibited travel to Cuba and at the same year United States imposed a comprehensive economic sanction banning financial transactions with Cuba.187 During Carter administration in 1977, the United States reopened the former embassy building as the United States Interest Section in Havana.188 In 1982, Cuba was listed in terrorism-sponsoring states by U.S. State Department as Cuba has opposed the U.S.-led war on terror publicly, and preserves friendly relationships with other state sponsors of terrorism, like Iran. 189 The United States banned U.S. foreign subsidiaries (a company that is partly or completely owned by another company that holds a controlling interest in the subsidiary company) from trading with Cuba, and limited remittances (a sum of money sent in payment or as a gift) to stop Cuban government from accessing U.S. currency in 1992.190 However, regardless of the embargo, Cuba succeeded in maintaining its economy with $3 billion annual aid from the Soviet Union. But when the Union of Soviet Socialists Republicans (USSR) collapsed in 1991, the financial assistance to Cuba was stopped, which resulted in a decline by 35% to 50% in the Cuban economy between 1989 and 1993. Consequently, Cuba opened up its economy and economic relations with other countries like Venezuela, China, Spain, Brazil, Mexico, Italy, and Canada. Also, Cuba stopped supporting revolutionary activities in Latin America and Africa.191 President Clinton in 1995 removed some travel restrictions. According to ―The Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act‖ in 2000, U.S. agricultural products, medicine, and medical 185

http://www.cfr.org/cuba/timeline-us-cuba-relations/p32817?cid=ppc-Google-grantus_cuba_timeline&gclid=CJXkiZOaickCFUgTwwodnWgJmQ 186 http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2886.htm 187 http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/STATUTE-76/pdf/STATUTE-76-Pg1446.pdf 188 http://diplomacy.state.gov/discoverdiplomacy/explorer/places/170222.htm 189 http://www.cfr.org/cuba/state-sponsors-cuba/p9359 190 https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Documents/cda.pdf 191 http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R43926.pdf

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devices were allowed to be exported to Cuba,192 and in 2001 after Michelle Hurricane, the United States allowed U.S. companies to sell food to Cuba for humanitarian reasons. George W. Bush added more tough restrictions to the embargo, and increased penalties and fines to anyone who violate these restrictions.193 In 2008, Fidel Castro resigned from the presidency of Cuba because of his illness. His brother Raul Castro took the authority, Raul wanted to apply some economic and political reforms in order to normalize the relations between Cuba and the United States, but he did not manage to do these reforms due to a series of hurricanes that damaged Cuban major industries and taking the Cuban attention.194 Moving to Obama administration, his views were against the current U.S. policies on Cuba time since he was a senator in the congress. His opinion is that the embargo failed to put an end to Castroâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s regime, and oppressed many innocents in Cuba. So, when he became the U.S. president, he removed some restrictions and allowing remittances to be sent to Cuba, at the same time he was looking for a response by the Cuban government to free some political prisoners.195 In 2013, Raul Castro was reelected again as Cuba president, however, he proclaimed that he would leave his office by 2018 because he is over 80 years old.196 In 2014 the United Stated restored all the diplomatic relations with Cuba. 197 On May 29, 2015 the United States officially removed Cuba from terrorism-sponsoring states, and on July 1, 2015, Obama announced the reopening of the embassies of the two countries.198 The United Nations passed a resolution on October 27, 2015 denouncing the resumption of the embargo for 22 years in a row. The voting result was 191 in favor ending the embargo and 2 against (the United States and Israel).199 On Mar. 15, 2016, the Obama administration eased some travel restrictions to Cuba and allowed more commerce between the United States and Cuba.200 , United States Senator Mark Rubio and former United States presidential candidate denounced these decisions, proclaiming "the political situation in Cuba has deteriorated further since the time of the agreement [to ease restrictions]. They feel no need to make any changes, democratic, on the island. And it is in our national security interest to see changes, because as long as you have a failed repressive regime, you're going to have tens of thousands of people fleeing Cuba and trying to get into the United States."201 On March. 21, 2016,

192

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Programs/Pages/tsra_info.aspx http://www.cubastudygroup.org/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=7e4643ab-af81-4a8c-9872-5ab497a76617 194 http://www.cfr.org/cuba/us-cuba-relations/p11113 195 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/15/world/americas/15cuba.html?_r=0 196 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-21568158 197 https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/12/17/statement-president-cuba-policy-changes 198 https://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/foreign-policy/cuba 199 http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=52391#.VlOCsnYrLIU 200 http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/16/us/politics/white-house-cuba-restrictions.html 201 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/03/13/who-should-obama-meet-with-in-cuba-marcorubio-has-some-ideas/ 193

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president Obama made a historical visit to Cuba, became the first U.S. president to visit Cuba after 88 years since President Calvin Coolidge visit to Cuba in 1928.202 However, despite of the president‘s will and the demanding of the world to end the embargo, the overall embargo remains and it can only be lifted by congressional action. Economic Impacts: Many voices are asking for lifting the embargo on Cuba due to its impacts on the U.S. economy. Some politician‘s opinion is that beside the failure of the embargo in achieving democracy in Cuba and removing Castro‘s regime, the embargo harms the U.S. economy as well. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce opposes the embargo, stating that the U.S. policies impose real costs, and according to a study by Taxes A&M University in 2010, removing restrictions on the agricultural products exported to Cuba and lifting travel ban would increase the U.S. exports by $365 million and create 6000 new jobs in the United States.203 Some experts believe that lifting the embargo would benefit agriculture, telecommunications, tourism, and construction sectors. Conversely, 90 percent of the Cuban economy is state-owned and all the foreign trade is channeled through the government agencies, lifting the embargo would benefit the Cuban government and Castro‘s regime not the people.204 Moreover, some economists say that lifting the embargo would have a small effect on the U.S. economy. Agricultural Products: In 2000, the Congress enacted the Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act (TSRA), which authorized exporting some agriculture products, medicine, and medical devices to some countries, including Cuba, without any change in the general ban on Cuban imports. Also, TSRA included prohibitions on extending credit to facilitate agricultural sales to Cuba and on giving any U.S. government support for exports to Cuba. Then, the United States became one of the major exporters of agricultural products to Cuba.205 The U.S. agricultural products exports to Cuba reached its peak in 2008 by $685 million in the aftermath of series of hurricanes and tropical storms; however, this amount was representing only 0.6 percent of the total U.S. agricultural exports which was $114.8 billion in 2008.

202

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/20/politics/obama-cuba-arrival-change/ https://www.uschamber.com/issue-brief/oppose-unilateral-economic-sanctions 204 http://content.time.com/time/arts/article/0,8599,48773,00.html 205 http://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2015-august/us-cuba-agricultural-trade-past,-present,-and-possiblefuture.aspx#.VlTZHHYrLIU 203

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After 2008, the U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba declined, from 2012 to 2014, the average U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba was $365, representing 0.25 percent of the average U.S. agricultural exports to the world ($145.4 billion). Additionally, from 2012 to 2014 the U.S. exports to Cuba were concentrated in a few commodities.

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Many agricultural and food industry producers in the United States believe that Cuba represents a new market and an expansion for their products only if the restrictions imposed by the embargo were removed. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) stated that the United States could turn out to be a main trading partner with Cuba only if the embargo was lifted, because Cuba imports about 80% of its food, and according to U.S. geographical location the U.S. exporters have logistical advantages over their competitors in Brazil, China, Russia and Europe.206 Though, these advantages substituted by some restrictions and policies imposed on the U.S. agriculture products. Regarding sugar industry, Cuba was one of the biggest countries in producing and exporting sugar to the United States before the implementation of the embargo, while the United States is the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s largest sugar importer. Cuban sugar industry has declined sharply since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Cuba might expand its output and exports with additional investments. Therefore, any access to the U.S. sugar market will have to be negotiated.207 Some Concerns about lifting the embargo are that it will allow Cuba to export some of its tropical fruits and vegetables to the United States, competing with the U.S. agricultural products especially in Florida (the nearest state to Cuba). In addition, allowing the Cuban products to enter the U.S. market could become a path for introducing new pests and plant diseases. Telecommunications Industry: The Cuban Democracy Act (a bill introduced by U.S. Congressman Robert Torricelli and passed in 1992) removed some sanctions that allowed for telecommunications services between the United States and Cuba; however it was short and restricted.208 In 2009, the United States permits the U.S. telecommunications companies to establish fiber optic and satellite links with Cuba, and enter into agreements with the Cuban carriers.209 Today, with the announcements of the U.S. president, Barack Obama, by changing the U.S. policies towards Cuba in order to normalize the relations between the two countries, many people are talking about the opportunities that the U.S. telecommunications companies can invest in the telecommunications sector in Cuba. With the increasing demand on cell phones in Cuba and with 25% of the Cuban people had access to an internet controlled by the government and only 5% have had unrestricted access to the internet according to Cuban government figures released in 2011, beside the need to improve and upgrade of the wireless network and extend the internet infrastructure, many people believe that Cuba represents an opportunity for the U.S. telecommunications companies to invest in Cuba and expand their production and sales.210 Though, some experts in the telecommunication sector opinion is that with 11 million people in Cuba, the telecommunication market is not as big as the market in Vietnam and Myanmar, where the telecommunications markets there represent a huge opportunity for the U.S. telecom companies. In 206

http://www.ag.senate.gov/hearings/opportunities-and-challenges-for-agriculture-trade-with-cuba http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R44119.pdf 208 https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Documents/cda.pdf 209 https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Documents/CACR_Amendments_09032009.pdf 210 http://www.ibtimes.com/cuba-expand-internet-under-new-us-agreement-allowing-sale-networking-gear-1761586 207

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addition, the Cuban people receive low incomes which would not allow them to have internet access. Besides some concerns that the Castro administration might continue to restrict and control the internet and the telecommunications sector in Cuba. Tourism: Cuba is located near the U.S. shores (110 miles of Florida), and it is a popular destination for many American tourists. Although the United States removed some travel restrictions to Cuba and the announcement of the U.S. president by allowing the American travelers to use their debit and credit cards in Cuba, many Americans who want to visit Cuba pay a lot of money or travel through a third country like Canada or Mexico.211 The reason behind this is that the U.S. law allows for only 12 categories to travel to Cuba, including family visits, journalistic, educational, religious activities, or humanitarian work, and it doesnâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;t include tourism.212 So, lifting the embargo would allow many American tourists to travel to Cuba freely with lower costs. The Social Impacts: As the United States has a moral obligation to enhance human rights, and support the convention of the United Nations and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, Some politicians assure that the embargo can be used to prevent Cuban government from human rights' mistreatment and suppression.213 So far, at least 4,123 people were under arrest for political reasons in 2011, and in 2012 there was estimation by 6,602 political arrests in Cuba.214 Also, a report made by the Congressional Research Service stated that the number of prisoners in Cuba ranges between 65,000 to 70,000 by May 2012, at the same time the Cuban government reported that there are 57,337 prisoners only.215 In addition, the Cuban government restricts the freedom of assembly and expression, which oblige the United States to use its power to achieve the democracy and help the citizens in Cuba. According to American Association for World Health, the embargo does not affect the government as it aims, but it harms the people of Cuba rather than benefit them. The Cuban people are suffering from lack of food, medicine, access to technology, and other goods. The American Association for World Health reported in 1997 that food shortage in Cuba resulted in a decrease in Calories intake by 33 percent between 1989 and 1993, and doctors in Cuba do not have access to more than 50 percent of the drugs that on the world market. The report stated, "It is our expert medical opinion that the U.S. embargo has caused a significant rise in suffering-and even deaths-in Cuba." 216 211

http://www.cfr.org/cuba/us-cuba-relations/p11113 https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Programs/Documents/cuba_faqs_new.pdf 213 https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Documents/libertad.pdf 214 http://www.14ymedio.com/nacional/CCDHRN-SEPTIEMBRE_CYMFIL20151005_0001.pdf Reuters, "Cuban Commission for Human Rights and National Reconciliation: Political Detentions Rose in 2012," thecubaneconomy.com, Jan. 3, 2013 215 https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41617.pdf 216 American Association for World Health, "Denial of Food and Medicine: The Impact of the U.S. Embargo on the Health and Nutrition in Cuba," http://www.medicc.org/resources/documents/embargo/The%20impact%20of%20the%20U.S.%20Embargo%20on%20He alth%20&%20Nutrition%20in%20Cuba.pdf 212

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Mark P. Sullivan, a specialist in Latin American Affairs, explained that the United States can target the Cuban government only without harming people and helping them instead. The U.S. policies allow traveling to Cuba for family visiting, humanitarian reasons, and educational reasons. As well, it permits remittances (money transfer abroad) to Cuba; over $1 billion are sent to the Cuban families each year. The Congress assigned a total budget of $197 million to USAID to boost the democracy and human rights in Cuba between 2001 and 2012.217 The Political Impacts: The Embargo was signed by President Kennedy on Feb. 3, 1962; its intent was to reduce the threat posed by its alignment with the communist powers.218 Many politicians think that the embargo should not be lifted because Cuba has not made any effort to meet the required conditions to lift it which are, according to U.S. law: Cuba has to allow all political activities, free all political prisoners, abide to free and fair elections, grant freedom to the press, respect internationally recognized human rights, and allow labor unions. Since Cuba has not met these conditions, the United States should not lift the embargo. Moreover, they think that it is unwise to change the policy with Cuba now; for health reasons an aging Fidel Castro waived his authority to his younger brother Raúl who is also an old man over 80 years old and many predict that he will not be in charge of Cuba for a long time 219. Due to the uncertainty over who will succeed Raúl Castro, it is unreasonable to lift the embargo before new leader is in place. In addition to the unwillingness of taking the risk of a possible threat from the Cuban side especially that Cuba has been on the U.S. "State Sponsors of Terrorism" list since 1982, Thus, Cuba has to be subjected to sanctions.220 Bill Clinton argued that the Cuban embargo is unnecessary because in fact Cuba does not pose any threat to the United states221, even if it does, it must be lifted as its 50-year policy has failed and it had not achieved its intended goal of forcing Cuba to adopt a representative democracy. Applying the sanctions for 50 years was not effective and has not toppled the Castro regime. There were some attempts of easing the embargo with Cuba, but unfortunately, it has consistently responded with acts of aggression from the Cuban behalf. There was an attempt in 1977 to normalize the relations with Cuba during Carter‘s administration by opening a U.S. interest section in Havana, Fidel Castro replied by sending 125,000 emigrants to the United States, those emigrants were criminals or suffering from mental illness.222 President George W. Bush began to lift some 217

https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41617.pdf John F. Kennedy, "Proclamation 3447 - Embargo on All Trade with Cuba," (275 KB) www.presidency.ucsb.edu, Feb. 3, 1962 219 Robert Johnson, "END OF AN ERA: Castro Resigns From Party Leadership and Calls for Liberalization," www.businessinsider.com, Apr. 19, 2011 220 US Department of State, "State Sponsors of Terrorism," www.state.gov (accessed Dec. 19, 2012) 221 Bill Clinton, "State on Signing the Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity (LIBERTAD) Act of 1996," www.presidency.ucsb.edu, Mar. 12, 1996 222 Carol J. Williams, "Widely Condemned U.S. Policy on Cuba Unlikely to Change Soon," Los Angeles Times, Nov. 16, 2012 Robert Wright, Three Nights in Havana: Pierre Trudeau, Fidel Castro and the Cold War World, June 1, 2010 218

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restrictions on visiting family members in Cuba in 2003, but he strengthened the restrictions again in 2004 because of Cuba's crackdown against political dissidents (sentencing of 75 independent journalists, opposition activists and others to prison terms from 6 to 28 years. 223 In 2009, President Barack Obamaâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s administration the U.S. policy on traveling to Cuba to allow U.S. citizens to visit their families in Cuba, that same year, an American aid worker (Alan Gross) was arrested and charged with importing banned technology and trying to establish clandestine Internet service for Cuban Jews. He was sent to 15 years in prison by the Cuban government, and he was not released until December, 2014.224 Recently, although the United opened U.S. embassy in Cuba, the Cuban government still persecutes and arrests its own citizens. All of these incidents made the opponents more concerned and ask what would happen if the sanctions were fully lifted? Finally, some politicians argued that lifting the embargo would put a pressure on Cuba to remedy the problems that is blamed on the U.S. sanctions. The Cuban officials are blaming the embargo for all the problems in Cuba like health problems, lack of medicine, failure of the sugar industry, water pollution. The Cuban minister of Foreign Affairs blamed the embargo for $1.66 billion damage in the Cuban economy. So lifting the embargo would force the Cuban government to take the responsibility to create solutions to the Cuban problems instead of blaming the U.S. policies against Cuba.225 President Bill Clinton said in a 2000 interview, "Sometimes I think Fidel Castro doesn't want the embargo lifted... because as long as he can blame the United States, then he doesn't have to answer to his own people for the failures of his economic policy."226

Ann Louise Bardach, "How Cuban Repression Benefits Fidel Castro," Toronto Star, June 22, 2003 223 Mark P. Sullivan, "Cuba: Issues for the 112th Congress," (1 MB) Congressional Research Service, fpc.state.gov, Nov. 6, 2012 224 Nick Miroff, "For Alan Gross, It's Hard Time in Havana," globalpost.com, Nov. 28, 2012 225 Oscar Espinosa Chepe, "Nuevamente el Show del Embargo," www.cubaencuentro.com, Sep. 25, 2012 226 Democracy Now!, "Bill Clinton on Sanctions with Cuba," interview with host Amy Goodman, available at globalpolicy,org, Nov. 8, 2000

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Third Topic: Student Loans

Different Education Systems.......................................................... 94 a. Australia .................................................................................. b. United Kingdom ..................................................................... c. Sweden and Germany .............................................................

II.

Current Problem in the United States .......................................... 95

III.

Types of Student Loans .................................................................. 96

a. Federal Student Loans ............................................................ i. Subcategories of Federal Student Loans ...................... b. Private Student Loans ............................................................. IV.

Obama Student Loan Forgiveness Act ......................................... 98

The Impacts of Student Loan on the Studentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Future ............... 99

VI.

The Impacts of Student Loans on U.S. Economy ........................ 101

VII.

Policies and Legislations ................................................................. 103

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Student Loans Different Education Systems: The United States is known to be one of the leading countries regarding the quality of education world-wide; however, it has been tackling the nation‘s ever-growing student loan debt for years. The Average cost of tuition/year in the United States for Public schools is $8,240 and $28,500 for Private schools. The reason behind the high tuition fees in the United States is the relation between the supply and demand. In the past, government subsides after the Second World War (WWII) helped colleges to adjust to increasing demand by constructing new buildings, creating programs, hiring talent. Recently, however, demand has continued to rise with heavy budget cuts in state funding for public higher education and reduction subsidies at private schools to help with college supply.227 The following are study cases of different financial strategies for educational systems around the world. 1. Australia Average cost of tuition/year: $7,700 Australia who is known to acquire the Third best quality of education 228, used to provide free college education from 1973 to 1988, now, and due to the increasing rate of participation and enrollment in institutions of higher education, Tuition fees were introduced but Students pay far less than average American students. Their loan repayment is less complicated than in the United States as well, students can receive monetary aid via the Higher Education Contribution Scheme- Higher Education Loan Programme (HECS-HELP). The HECS-HELP scheme is a system where students shall borrow up to their entire cost of attendance, and can begin paying it back with 4-8% paycheck deductions after their professional income exceeds a certain threshold, with discounts given for early repayment.

2. United Kingdom Average cost of tuition/year: $13,500 The United kingdom provides the second best quality of education after the U.S229, however, Tuition fees were relatively recently introduced after passing the Teaching and Higher Education Act of 1998 by Tony Blair, the prime minister then. The Act states that students have to contribute to their higher education for at least £1,000. Later on, a cap was placed in the United Kingdom on the maximum allowed amount of charged Tuition which was £9,000. After the announcement of the cap, more than 60 universities announced their tuition fees to be exactly £9,000 which counts as a significant 227

http://www.bestvalueschools.com/understanding-the-rising-costs-of-higher-education/ "The Cheapest and Costliest Universities in the World." CNBC. October 17, 2014. http://www.cnbc.com/2014/10/17/the-cheapest-and-costliest-universities-in-the-world.html 229 "The Cheapest and Costliest Universities in the World." CNBC. October 17, 2014. http://www.cnbc.com/2014/10/17/the-cheapest-and-costliest-universities-in-the-world.html. 228

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increase of cost of education, and that caused sparkling studentsâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC; protests around the United Kingdom. As for student loans, which are primarily provided by the government-funded Student Loans Company (SLC), the government provided offers for eligible students pursuing an undergraduate degree; Students may receive both a tuition fee loan as well as a maintenance loan, which covers living expenses. While these loans are set at a fixed amount, low-income students may reapply to receive a larger loan or a maintenance grant, which does not have to be repaid.

3. Sweden and Germany Average cost of tuition/year: $0 In Sweden and Germany, Tuition fees are completely free. Both countries are eager to let higher education as accessible as possible, regardless of studentsâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC; income or socioeconomic status, seeking the improvement of their countriesâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC; global education standing. Moreover, student loans are provided to cover all living expenses and study materials that are required to successfully complete the higher education phase. These loans should be repaid on a monthly basis before the individual turn 60. Free education was only provided to the citizens, foreigners were paying about as much as a private university in the United States.230 However, since October 2014, all public universities in Germany do not charge any tuition fees for all undergraduate students including the international students.231 Current problem in the United States: The U.S. federally sponsored student loan system has been employed by 1958 and since then borrowing have become more common and expanded significantly till the federal portfolio's national student loan debts has reached around $1.3 trillion by more than 40 million borrowers across the United States.232 The student debt balances continue to grow compounded with a low repayment rate which is caused primarily by lower- and middle-income borrowers.233 The aggregate student loan balance has shown a significant increase, as not only by younger borrowers had loans been held, but also by borrowers of all age groups. The chart below shows the growing student debts for all age groups.234 The high levels of student debts affect economic and social inequality negatively; college degree supposedly aims to improve both aspects.235 High debts influence financial decisions as well 230

"How Do Students Around the World Pay For College?" Tuitionio Student Loan Blog. August 15, 2012. https://www.tuition.io/blog/2012/08/how-do-students-around-the-world-pay-for-college/. 231

http://www.studying-in-germany.org/german-education-system/ http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/notes/feds-notes/2015/how-much-student-debt-is-out-there-20150807.html 233 https://www.newamerica.org/weekly/the-next-generation-of-student-debt/ 234 robinhoodtax.org 235 http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2015/04/just-released-press-briefing-on-student-loan-borrowing-andrepayment-trends-2015.html#.Vl3p6NGhfIU 232

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as social and economic ones, such as homeownership which has declined significantly as a result of many adults being hindered by their debts. Also, the overall economy will be affected because consumers will be less likely to spend money on goods and services and that will reduce consumption which is a major driver of the U.S. economy.236 Types of student loans: Student loans are distinctively differentiated into two main types: Federal loans and private loans. These types contain sub-categories dependent on the needs of the students. The federal loans are loans provided by the government, whilst private loans are loans provided by private institutions, banks, and entities. Students are free to choose whatever loan that suits their financial and educational needs. Being diversified, student loans provide a major advantage over the loan-free educational systems in other governments; however, student loans are not referred as a debt-free educational system. The regulatory framework of the student loans policies is regarded to the Higher Education Act of 1965, U.S. Department of Education, Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA), cost of attendance, and expected family contribution. There are two main channels in which the payment occurs: Federal direct student loan programs, and federal family education loan program. 237 Federal Student Loans: Some students may prefer federal student loans rather the private student loans, because the repayment period is done mainly after graduation or when they change their enrollment status. Some students might prefer it because there is a fixed interest rate, not because it is usually lower than those of private student loans. Usually, the credit card interest rate is higher than the interest rate of student loans. Students with financial needs who qualify for a specific student loan may be provided a subsidized loan where the government pays the interest rate while the student is still at the school. Some students with bad credit records prefer a federal student loan because it doesnâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;t require a credit check (except for PLUS loans, which is a federal student loan). Some experts say that a federal student loan might help you acquire a good credit record; however there might be fluctuations in a studentâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s credit record who applies for a private student loan.238

236

http://www.consumerfinance.gov/newsroom/student-debt-swells-federal-loans-now-top-a-trillion/ https://www.debt.org/students/types-of-loans/ 238 http://www.collegescholarships.org/loans/no-credit-check-student-loan.htm 237

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Some students may need their parents as cosigners when they apply for a private loan, but that usually is not required when someone applies for a federal student loan, and that is a privilege for students who pursued independence after high school. Interest might be prone to tax deduction. Some students pursue a new maneuver and that is to consolidate their loans into one loan. Sometimes the government provides assistance when a student is unable to repay his/her loan and the loan is usually postponed.

Repayment plans of the federal student loans are diverse which gives students different options that would satisfy their different needs; furthermore, repayment is usually after they graduate and it is compensated from their monthly wage. Most of the time, there is no prepayment penalty fee.239 Subcategories of federal student loans:240 

 

Perkins Loan: The Perkins loan is mainly dependent on the needs of students, as it is said to be a ―need-based student loan‖ offered by the U.S. Department of Education to assist students fund their post-secondary education. PLUS Loan: It is a student loan offered to the parents of the students enrolled at least half time or graduates, who finished their post-secondary education. Stafford Loan: It is a loan provided to students who study in accredited American institutions of

239 240

https://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/education/higher-education/ensuring-that-student-loans-are-affordable https://www.debt.org/students/types-of-loans/

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higher education to help aid and finance their higher education process. Beside these loans the government provides students with Consolidation Loan program. It aids the students to converge all of their federal loans into one loan and the resulting interest rate is a weighted average of their prior loan rates. It usually consolidates Perkins, PLUS, and Stafford loan into one single debt with minor fluctuations.241 Private Student Loans:242 The private student loan is usually provided within a short period of time, and private institutions and banks usually provide more money; so, if a student wants to study in Harvard or Yale, they usually apply for a student loan. And they are usually capable of affording the tuition fees, so they can pay it within time or if they are rich, they will not need a federal loan, or a private loan. A student loan has a variable interest rate with certain fluctuations that a middle class student may not be able to handle; some are even greater than 18%. Private student loans are not subsidized and nobody pays the interest on the loan but the student. A private student loan may require an established credit record, and the cost of the student loan will mainly depend on a student‘s credit score on a credit record. Students may need a cosigner to receive a private student loan. There is controversy on the point that the interest may not be tax deductible. Consolidation of loans is usually done with federal loans, and isn‘t allowed to be done regarding private loans, due to the fluctuations in the interest rates and the policies adopted by the private institutions and banks. Private student loans don‘t usually offer forbearance and the debt that is not paid could promote legal questioning with the student. The repayment options are not so many, so a student must check the repayment methods with the private entity that provides the loan. And a student needs to make sure that there is no prepayment penalty fee. Obama Student Loan Forgiveness act: Obama student loan forgiveness act is an amendment on an older program called ―Direct Loan Program‖ signed by president Obama in 2010. Only the federal loans are prone to the advantages and constructed by Obama student loan forgiveness act. The private loans are not prone to these changes or to these jurisdictions. With a political maneuver, Obama managed to give subsidies to private lending institutions. Borrowers now are qualified to pay 10% of their discretionary wage; moreover, new borrowers are prone to forgiveness after 20 years.243 The consolidation of loans is taken care of in this new program as it will allow no fluctuations; thereafter, it will provide the borrower with diverse and different repayment plans that are relatively affordable. ―In an extreme case, a person can pile up $100,000 in student loans going to an expensive school, graduate, and go to work for a non-profit advocacy group. ―Imagine that our

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https://studentaid.ed.gov/sa/repay-loans/consolidation https://www.debt.org/students/types-of-loans/ 243 http://www.studentdebtrelief.us/forgiveness/obama-student-loan-forgiveness/ 242

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graduate stays single and is paid $40,000. She will pay only about $187 per month which will not even cover the interest accruing on her loans.‖ – Jeffrey Dorfman (Forbes article).244

This program offers five different repayment plans: 

   

Pay As You Earn (PAYE): This repayment plan offers loan forgiveness at the end of 20 years of payments. This plan has the lowest monthly payment; it is also based on the income as it compensates only 10% of one‘s income. Borrowers in the PAYE can have a payment as low as $0.00/month. Standard Repayment: The borrower will pay a constant amount of money that is determined by the borrowed amount, and the interest rate. Graduated Repayment: The payment is usually lower than the standard repayment, but the amount gradually increases every two years. Income Contingent Repayment (ICR): ICR can have a payment as low as $0.00/month. The payment is based on the family size, income, loan balance, and interest rate. Income Based Repayment (IBR): This method of repayment is mainly based on the income, and family size. The interest forgiveness is not capitalized on the subsidized portion of the direct loan. For instance, if a borrower owes $40,000 in subsidized loans, the interest rate is 6.875%, and the term is 25 years. Borrower is single with an adjusted gross income of $25,000 annually, the interest on this loan would normally be $229.17 per month, but the borrower would qualify for an IBR payment of $93.69. In this case, the borrower would be forgiven $229.17 – $93.69 = $135.48 of interest per month. If this persons financial situation does not change for three years, they would be forgiven $135.48 x 36 = $4,877.28.245 If the students pursue their career in the public service they can even be qualified for forgiveness after 10 years or 120 payments, and not 20 or 25 years. Though, the Obama Student Loan Forgiveness act is still controversial, because the program applies only to federal loans like unsubsidized Stafford loans and it does not apply to private loans.246 The Impacts of student loans on the student’s future: Student debts effect on students individual spending is affecting the nation‘s economy as well as student's personal lives decisions such as marriage, bearing children, and retirement savings. Student loans were originally introduced to enhance social and economic state; however, they are limiting the student‘s financial situation as students are suffering from buying their lives necessities such as homes and cars according to American Student Assistance (ASA). Consequently, those individuals

244

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffreydorfman/2014/06/19/here-comes-the-student-loan-forgiveness/ http://www.studentdebtrelief.us/forgiveness/obama-student-loan-forgiveness/ 246 https://studentaid.ed.gov/sa/repay-loans/forgiveness-cancellation/public-service 245

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undergoing debts has put off investing or small businesses plans. 247 The following charts show a survey done by Association of Independent Colleges and Universities in Massachusetts (AICUM) about how student loans affect the ability of the students to buy a home or to save for retirement or investments:248

Source: AICUM

Career choice of those individuals is also influenced by loans, whereas they do not have a big chance for making choice but rather they accept any job in order to secure repaying their college debts as represented by respondents to the survey below.249

Student debt does not only affect recent graduates but also individuals over the age of fifty who have been in debt to fund their children or grandchildren's education, and even their own 247

http://www.asa.org/for-partners/schools/content-pages/life-delayed-the-impact-of-student-debt-on-the-daily-lives-ofyoung-americans/ 248 http://aicum.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/ASA.pdf 249 http://aicum.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/ASA.pdf

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education as indicated by a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Those early student loan borrowers who are almost reaching retirement are in a complicated financial situation as the existence of their student debts has overlapped their saving for their retirement.250 The Impacts of student loans debt on the U.S. economy: Today, college education is the most important investment for the students to find a suitable and decent job, and to increase their earnings in the future. However, the tuition fees for four college years have more than tripled over the past three decades. Thus, many students are depending on loans to finance their college education. Nowadays, 71% of graduates with bachelor degrees graduated with a debt, the average of student loan debt is $29,400, students are suffering during repaying their debts and even if they are able to repay the debt, they would not be able to buy a home, marry, start a

business, or save for the retirement.251 Student loans as any other loans affect the economy. Today, with $1.2 trillion student loan debt, which is higher than any non-mortgage debts (Home Equity, Auto loan, Credit card), around 42 million student loan borrowers with average balance $29,400, and with increasing default rate (Failure to repay a loan), could lead to an economic crisis.252

250

http://www.studentbodyofamerica.org/the-effect-of-student-loan-debt-on-lifes-milestones https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/student_debt_report_final.pdf 252 http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/projects/bpea/fall2015_embargoed/conferencedraft_looneyyannelis_studentloandefaults.pdf 251

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One of the concerns of increasing the student loan debt is its effect on other spending activities. Student loan debt results in 8 percent decline in home purchases among U.S. citizens whose age between 20 and 39 according to an analysis done by Rick Palacios, director of research for John Burns Real Estate Consulting, every $250 paid by a household per month for student loan debt, decreases their purchasing power of a home by $44,000. Also, he stated that about 6 million households are paying more than $250 per month for student loans.253Additionally, home ownership among people who are less than 35 years old has fallen from 43.3 percent in 2005 to 34.6 percent in 2015.254 So student loan debts affect homes market. Some experts believe that student loans increase inequality in the society, because the poor and middle class students are much more likely to take loans to study at universities, and after the graduation and during working, they suffer from repaying the loan. On the other hand, richer students do not suffer from such problems.255 Students who graduate with debt always prefer to work in high-salary jobs to be 253

http://money.cnn.com/2014/09/24/real_estate/student-loan-debt-home-buying/index.html?iid=SF_PF_River http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf?cssp=SERP 255 http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/brookings-now/posts/2014/05/two-charts-that-show-the-growth-of-student-loan-debt 254

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able to repay the loan, which means fewer numbers of graduates to work in low-paying public interest job that is critical to the economy and the society like early childhood education.256 Small businesses are the cornerstone for the U.S. economy.257 They represent about 50% of the private sector with 60% of new jobs in the private sector, and 99% of all businesses in the United States. While starting new business needs capital; individuals may depend on loans from banks to start a business; student loan debts reduce people debt capacity and restrict them from taking new loan in the future. Furthermore, people with huge amount of student loan debt may not be able to access the capital market to finance any new small businesses. An increase of standard deviation in student loan debt uses decline results in creating new small businesses by 14.4%, which means that there is a negative relationship between student loan debt and formation of small businesses.258 Bill Ackman, Hedge fund manager, believes that student loan debt may lead to a serious economic crisis. His point of view is that the current $1.2 trillion debt is owned by people who cannot pay it back and for political reasons the government would be forced to forgive those loans, which would damage the institutions that lent those loans, resulting in a major hit to the U.S. economy like what happened in 2008.259 Whereas, the former Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke opinion is that student loans problem is a fiscal issue related to students who have debt, because it affects their purchasing power. But he thinks that student loans will not lead to another financial crisis like the global financial crisis in 2008; because most of student loans are backed by the government, unlike mortgages (the reason behind the 2008 financial crisis) was held by financial institutions.260 Policies and Legislations: Some legislatures are enacting some policies in order to reform student loan programs and handle student debt such as: ď&#x201A;&#x;Loan Forgiveness and Repayment Programs: Under these programs, the graduate accepts to work and live in a certain region in exchange for loan forgiveness or state repays the amount of loan. These kinds of programs are used as inducement for graduates to work in certain areas like rural areas. At least 35 states adopted some types of loan forgiveness and repayment programs.261 ď&#x201A;&#x;Providing Students More Information: According to Brookings Institute, many students are not fully aware of the amount of loan they borrow or the amount of payments for this loan, So, Students have to be provided with more information like: the total amount of the loan, the total amount of the payoff, the monthly payment amount, and the maximum federal borrowing limit and how close is

256

http://www.nber.org/papers/w13117.pdf https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2010/08/17/small-businesses-are-backbone-our-economy-and-cornerstones-ourcommunities 258 Ambrose, Cordell, and Ma. (2015). The Impact of Student Loan Debt on Small Business Formation. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 259 http://www.businessinsider.com/student-debt-crisis-could-trigger-crash-2015-4 260 http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/13/us-bernanke-studentloan idUSKCN0S726720151013#SFyC7rVKKZcZGLY6.97 261 https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R43571.pdf 257

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he/she from it.262 Indiana passed a bill in 2015 (H.B. 1042) requires higher education institutions to provide each student with specific information about student loan like: the total amount of loans taken out, the total payoff amount, the monthly repayment amount, and how close the student is reaching the maximum federal borrowing limit (the amount of money that individuals could borrow from other individuals, firms, banks or governments).263 Refinancing Existing Loans: These programs offer low interest rate to reduce the cost of loans; allowing students to repay the loan at a lower cost. Typically, these programs are designed to be selfsustaining and do not receive additional support through annual appropriations. Now 7 states started to enact legislations to begin such programs. However, states take into their consideration some factors like which loans will be refinanced, the amount of risk they are willing to accept, and risk of defaulting. Tax Deductions and Credits: Although many proposals for tax deductions and credits are introduced, only few states apply this policy. Massachusetts allows borrowers to deduct the full amount of tuition payments and interest paid on loans used to earn an undergraduate degree. The deduction is equal to the amount of the tuition payments, less any scholarships, grants or financial aid received.264 Maine offers a tax credit to individuals and businesses for student loan payments. The amount of the credit is tied to the price of tuition at Maine community colleges and universities.265 In 2015, Rhode Island enacted a tax credit that would require applicants to be full-time employees with a Rhode Islandbased employer and be limited to certain science, technology, engineering, mathematic and health fields.266 Low Interest and No Interest Loans: The federal government put a maximum limit for students that they can borrow ($31,000 for dependent undergraduates and $57,000 for independent undergraduates). But sometimes these amounts are not enough to complete their higher education, so they shift to private loans which have higher interest rates. So some states offer fixed interest rates for students as substitutes for private loans. Massachusetts offers no interest loans to the students.267 Improving Student Protections: States are taking some measures in order to protect borrower students from any dubious practices from loan providers like creating a student loans ombudsman to assist students and provide information to the public and approving loan providers by the state. Oklahoma passed a bill in 2013 known as the Oklahoma Private Student Loan Transparency and Improvement Act, which established restrictions on private loan lenders and requires specific detections prior to issuing a loan.268

262

http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports/2014/12/10-borrowing-blindly-akers-chingos https://iga.in.gov/legislative/2015/bills/house/1042 264 http://www.mass.gov/dor/individuals/filing-and-payment-information/guide-to-personal-incometax/deductions/education-related-deductions.html#College 265 http://www.mainelegislature.org/legis/statutes/36/title36sec5217-D.html 266 http://webserver.rilin.state.ri.us/BillText15/HouseText15/H5900.pdf 267 http://www.mass.edu/osfa/programs/nointerest.asp 268 https://legiscan.com/OK/bill/HB1829/2013 263

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Child Savings Accounts: It is a long term strategy. It means saving money for children to make them able to join a college in the future without depending on borrowing. Now, at least 7 states have passed legislations or started to offer child savings accounts for children born in the state or registered in a kindergarten in the state. Student from low or moderate income households with a savings account for college of just $500 are three times more likely to join college in the future and four times more likely to graduate from college than a similar student without savings account. 269 College Affordability: Many state legislators believe that improving college affordability and ensure that students complete their degrees by using higher education finance policies and providing reductions in tuition fees, financial aid, and appropriations. These policies aim to avoid students taking loans.270 For example, in 2015 Washington policymakers passed the College Affordability Program which lower tuition fees by 5 percent to 20 percent at all public universities for the 2015 and 2016 academic years.271 Maryland created a tuition stabilization fund with a specified revenue source to help offset the negative effects of recessions on higher education funding.272 Build and Maintain Capacity: The shortage in public universities‘ capacity to serve all students forces the students to join more expensive for-profit (private) colleges. Their debt increases and they are more likely to default. So, expanding the capacity of public universities and building new ones could reduce the total debt and default rates.

269

https://aedi.ku.edu/sites/aedi.ku.edu/files/docs/publication/CD/reports/R1.pdf http://collegecost.ed.gov/catc/ 271 http://www.get.wa.gov/5954-impacts 272 http://mgaleg.maryland.gov/pubs/budgetfiscal/2015fy-budget-docs-operating-HIGHED-Higher-EducationOverview.pdf 270

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Committee on the Judiciary

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Prepared By: Chairman Vice-Chairlady Andrew Asaad Aya Alaa Ranking Member Party Consultant Noura Khaled Omar Fathy

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Committee History and Jurisdiction Established in 1816 as one of the original standing committees in the United States Senate, the Senate Committee on the Judiciary is one of the most influential committees in Congress. It considers legislation relating to judicial proceedings. Since that time, the scope of the committee‘s concern has expanded to include not only civil and criminal judicial proceedings and Federal courts and judges, but also issues relating to bankruptcy, espionage, terrorism, the protection of civil liberties, constitutional amendments, immigration and naturalization, interstate compacts, claims against the United States, national penitentiaries, Presidential succession, antitrust law, revision and codification of the statutes of the United States, state and territorial boundary lines and patents, copyrights and trademarks. Particularly important in our time is the Committee's oversight responsibility for the Departments of Justice and Homeland Security. Any legislation that carries a possibility for criminal or civil penalties can be referred to the Committee on the Judiciary, so its legislative workload is substantial. The committee‘s weighty agenda has frequently placed it in a central role in American politics, most notably during its consideration of impeachment charges against presidents of the United States in both 1974 and 1998.

Subcommittees:       

Antitrust, Competition Policy and Consumer Rights Bankruptcy and the Courts The Constitution, Civil Rights and Human Rights Crime and Terrorism Immigration, Refugees and Border Security Oversight, Federal Rights and Agency Actions Privacy, Technology and the Law

Leadership Chairman Chuck Grassley

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First Topic: Bio Ethics A. Stem Cells Research: I. II.

Introduction ..................................................................................... 109 Types of Stem Cells ......................................................................... 109 a. Totipotent Stem Cells ............................................................. b. Pluripotent Stem Cells ............................................................  Embryonic stem (ES) cell……………………………  Embryonic germ cells……………………………….. c. Multi-potent Stem Cells…………………………………… d. Induced pluripotent stem cells (iPS)……………………….. e. Future applications and challenges for iPS cells….. …….....

III. IV.

V. VI.

Sources of Stem Cells ...................................................................... 113 Legal aspect and Major Events concerning Stem Cells .............. 114 a. Federal Level .......................................................................... b. State Level .............................................................................. The Debate on Stem Cells Research.............................................. 117 Alternatives ...................................................................................... 120

B. Cloning: I. II.

III. IV. V.

Introduction ..................................................................................... 121 What is Cloning? ............................................................................. 121 a. Definition ................................................................................ b. Types. ...................................................................................... Brief History of Cloning ................................................................. 123 Legal Aspect..................................................................................... 125 Arguments........................................................................................ 126

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First topic: Bio Ethics A. Stem Cells Research I.

Introduction Stem cells exist in various parts of the human body at every stage of development from embryo to adult. They are the master cells of the human body, or the body's main building blocks and are unspecialized cells that have the ability to divide giving copies of themselves, and under proper conditions can also develop into mature cells of different types such as liver cells, nerve cells, skin pancreatic insulin secreting cells, cardiac muscles, vessels and many others.

  

II.

The importance of the stem cells comes from the fact that they differ from other kinds of cells in the body. Stem cells -regardless of their source- generally have three traits: they are unspecialized cells; they have the ability to divide and renew themselves; And they can generate new specialized cell types that can divide and develop into mature cells of different types of human body. Therefore recent medical researches about stem cells could succeed to use the different types of stem cells in repairing, treating and curing a variety of diseases and injuries. 273

Types of Stem Cells: Stem cells are found in the human body in different types that originate in different stages in the human life. They are four main types;



Totipotent Stem cells.



Pluripotent Stem Cells, which exist only at the earliest stages of the development of the embryo.



Induced Pluripotent Stem cells (IPs) which are normal somatic cells that have been stimulated in the laboratories in order to behave like pluripotent stem cells.



Multi-potent Stem cells that originate from the pluripotent stem cells during fetal development and remain in the human bodies throughout life.274 All stem cells can self-renew (make copies of themselves) and differentiate (develop into more specialized cells). However different types of stem cells vary widely regarding their actions and uses, and regarding what they can and cannot do when they are put in certain circumstances and certain environments. Therefore researches are conducted on all types of stem cells. 273

‗Stem Cell Basics‘, 2015, accessed 2016, http://www.closerlookatstemcells.org/learn-about-stem-cells/stem-cellbasics. 274 STEM CELL FACTS, (n.p., 2015), http://www.closerlookatstemcells.org/docs/default-source/patient-resources/stemcell-facts.pdf.

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1. Totipotent Stem cells They are not natural Stem cells; since they cannot make more of themselves. However totipotent cells -under the right conditions, have the potential to become any type of cells in the human body. They can be able to generate a viable embryo (including the placenta) then develop into a fetus. Totipotent cells exist until about four days after fertilization, and then they develop to pluripotent stem cells. The only totipotent cells are the fertilized egg ―zygote‖ and the first few primitive cells produced by the division of the zygote.275

2. Pluripotent Stem Cells They are true stem cells; since they can renew themselves and generate any differentiated cell in the human body. Pluripotent SC can be isolated from embryonic or fetal tissue, generating two types of cells which share many characteristics but differ in the sources that they are derived from.

 Embryonic stem (ES)cells Embryonic stem (ES) cells are derived from the inner cell mass of the blastocyst, which is found in the very early phase of embryonic development that has the shape of a ball and consists of approximately 150-200 cells. In normal development, the cells inside the blastocyst divide for a short time, then begin developing into more specialized cells that give rise to the entire body—all of our tissues and organs. Scientists can extract the inner cell mass and grow these in the lab. These are embryonic stem cells, and under the right conditions, they can grow indefinitely in the lab. Embryonic stem cells are pluripotent, meaning, they can give rise to every cell type in the fully formed body, but not the placenta and umbilical cord. These cells are valuable because they provide a renewable resource for studying normal development and disease, and for testing drugs and other therapies. Human ES cells have been derived primarily from blastocysts created by in vitro fertilization (IVF) (a procedure in the lab in which an egg cell and sperm cells are brought together in a dish to fertilize the egg. The fertilized egg after several divisions, forms the embryo that can be implanted into the womb of a woman and give rise to pregnancy) for assisted reproduction that were excessive and no longer needed.276

Glossary. In Stem Cell Information [World Wide Web site]. Bethesda, MD: National Institutes of Health, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2015 [cited Tuesday, March 08, 2016] Available at <http://stemcells.nih.gov/glossary/Pages/Default.aspx> 4 STEM CELL FACTS, (online: international society for stem cell research, 2015), http://www.closerlookatstemcells.org/docs/default-source/patient-resources/stem-cell-facts.pdf.

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 Embryonic germ cells Human embryonic germ (EG) cells share many of the characteristics of human ES cells, but differ in the source of extraction. Human EG cells are derived from the precursor gonadal (germ) cells from aborted fetuses, which normally develop into mature gametes (eggs and sperm).277

3. Multi-potent Stem Cells Also known as Tissue-Specific stem cells and Adult stem cells, they are more specialized than embryonic stem cells. They arise from the Pluripotent cells. Typically, these stem cells can generate different cell types for the specific tissue or organ in which they live. For example, blood-forming (hematopoietic) stem cells in the bone marrow can give rise to red blood cells, white blood cells and platelets. However, blood-forming stem cells don‘t generate liver or lung or brain cells, and stem cells in other tissues and organs don‘t generate red or white blood cells or platelets. Another example is the Mesenchymal Stem Cells ―MSC‖ or the Stromal cells which are the stem cells that originate the connective tissue that surrounds other tissues and organs. The first MSCs were discovered in the bone marrow and were able to form bone and cartilage. Since then, MSCs have been grown from other tissues, such as fat and cord blood.278 Some tissues and organs within the body contain small caches of tissue-specific stem cells whose job is to replace cells from that tissue that are lost in normal day-to-day living or in injury, such as those in your skin, blood, and the lining of gut. 279

Tissue-specific stem cells can be difficult to find in the human body, and they don‘t seem to selfrenew in culture as easily as embryonic stem cells do. However, study of these cells has increased our general knowledge about normal development, what changes in aging, and what happens with injury and disease.280

277

Itskovitz-Eldor, J., Schuldiner, M., Karsenti, D., Eden, A., Yanuka, O., Amit, M., Soreq, H., and Benvenisty, N. (2000). Differentiation of human embryonic stem cells into embryoid bodies comprising the three embryonic germ layers. Mol. Med. 6, 88–95.

278

STEM CELL FACTS, (online: international society for stem cell research, 2015), http://www.closerlookatstemcells.org/docs/default-source/patient-resources/stem-cell-facts.pdf. 279 STEM CELL FACTS. Online: international society for stem cell research, 2015. http://www.closerlookatstemcells.org/docs/default-source/patient-resources/stem-cell-facts.pdf. 280 STEM CELL FACTS, (online: international society for stem cell research, 2015), http://www.closerlookatstemcells.org/docs/default-source/patient-resources/stem-cell-facts.pdf.

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4. Induced pluripotent stem cells (iPS): Induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cells are cells that are capable of behaving like embryonic stem cells as a result of stimulation by certain stimuli or genetic engineering under specific circumstances in the lab. IPS cells are essential cells now because they offer researchers critical assistance with learning more about normal development and disease onset and prognosis, and they are likewise valuable for creating and testing new medications and treatments. While iPS cells share many of the same characteristics of embryonic stem cells, including the ability to generate all the cell types in the human body, they are not precisely the same. Researchers are investigating what these distinctions are and what they mean. Scientists are exploring different approaches in order to create iPS cells with the goal that they can at last be utilized as a source of cells or tissues for different medical therapies and experiments.281

Future applications and challenges for iPS cells: IPs cells hold great potential for new medical applications regarding reprogramming. Since iPS cells can be produced using a patient's own skin or any other somatic cell “any cell of the human body except sperm and egg cells”, they could be utilized to develop specific cells that precisely match the patient and would not be rejected by the immune system. On the off chance that the patient has a hereditary disorder ―any genetic disease‖, the hereditary disorder could be cured in their iPS cells in the research centers, and these repaired iPS cells can be 281

What are induced pluripotent stem cells?. In Stem Cell Information [World Wide Web site]. Bethesda, MD: National Institutes of Health, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2015 [cited Tuesday, March 08, 2016] Available at <http://stemcells.nih.gov/info/basics/pages/basics10.aspx>

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used to deliver a patient-particular group of healthy specific cells for transplantation. However, this advantage stays hypothetical for the time being. Up to this point, creating iPS cells included permanent changes in the DNA inside the cell, which can generate cancer cells and form tumors. Researchers have been working recently on creating strategies for making iPS cells without this genetic change. These new procedures are an imperative step towards making iPS-derived specialized cells that would be safe for use in patients. Further researches are currently expected to discover completely how reprogramming of iPS cells functions and how they can be controlled and created reliably enough to meet the high caliber and the safety requirements for use in the medical field.282

III.

Sources of Stem Cells: This is the main area of debate that surrounds this technology. MSCs or Adult stem cells can be taken from adult tissues with minimal unsafe impact on the individual while embryonic stem cells are taken from embryos ―pluripotent cells‖ that have been cultured in the lab. Various administrative and ethical considerations exist for the utilization of embryos in medical researches. There is additionally a predetermined number of human embryonic cell lines ―Cells that can be maintained and grown in a dish outside of the body.‖ accessible for medical research that meet all criteria for federal funding, however many researchers stay skeptical over the nature of these cells. That would lead the current and potential sources of stem cells: 1. Sources of embryonic stem cells:



Early embryos which are created by in-vitro fertilization (IVF) - either those which are excessive or not needed for infertility treatment (sometimes called spare embryos) or created only for the sake of medical research.



Early embryos that are created by somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT), a procedure that bypasses the normal fertilization process by taking the genetic material ―DNA‖ from a cell in an adult‘s body and fusing it with an empty egg cell. 2. Sources of embryonic germ cells:



Germ cells or organs of an aborted fetus. 3. Sources of MSCs or adult stem cells:



Blood cells of the umbilical cord at the time of birth.



Some adult tissues (such as bone marrow and fat cells).



Mature adult tissue cells reprogrammed to behave like stem cells. (iPS cells).283 282

‗IPS Cells and Reprogramming: Turn Any Cell of the Body into a Stem Cell‘, May 25, 2011, accessed March 8, 2016, http://www.eurostemcell.org/factsheet/ips-cells-and-reprogramming-turn-any-cell-body-stem-cell.

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Legal aspect and Major Events concerning Stem Cells: A) Federal level There had not been a federal law that bans stem cell research, only limitations by the congress power on funding and usage. History of Stem Cell Research The history of stem cells might be traced to the late 1900s, when James A. Thomson of the University of Wisconsin and John D. Gearhart of Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, have succeeded in isolating human stem cells with the help of their teams and that was considered to be a huge medical achievement which faced a lot of ethical challenges. In the following December the senate held its congressional sessions to debate federal funding for such researches. In summer 2000, A significant achievement for stem cells research took place, when the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the American Heart Association has ratified the embryonic stem cells research and President Clinton agreed to fund it on federally challenging objections from the National Right to Life Committee (NRLC). However these funds were subjected to two conditions;

ď&#x201A;ˇ ď&#x201A;ˇ

Only leftover frozen embryos will be used from fertility clinics Donors shall not get any financial compensation. These conditions were set in order to prevent establishing a commercial trade in embryos. Scientist started looking for an alternative for embryonic stem cells trying to escape from the controversy around the destruction of human embryos and possible lives. Fortunately, in 2001, scientists have successfully isolated stem cells from fat tissues, after then adult stem cells have been found in many organs of adult body. In a timeline the major events and laws that took place regarding stem cell research:

1996 The Dickey- Wicker Amendment The Dickey-Wicker Amendment, named after Reps. Jay Dickey (R-AR) and Roger Wicker (R-MS) gives the congress the power to ban federal funding for research on embryos. The amendment bans federal funding for researches that require creation of human embryos or in which a human embryo

283

STEM CELL FACTS, (international society for stem cell research, 2015), http://www.closerlookatstemcells.org/docs/default-source/patient-resources/stem-cell-facts.pdf.

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might be destroyed, or exposed to death or risks greater than that allowed for research on fetuses in uterus.284 -

2000 The national institute of health NIH released guidelines upon the Dickey-Wicker amendment for research on ES cells; these guidelines state that:



That used embryonic stem cells must have been created for fertility treatment purposes, brought from frozen embryos from fertility clinics, the donor must sign a consent and be in excess of their need and the embryonic stem cells should be funded privately.

2001 President Bush prohibits federal funding of most human Embryonic Stem Cells Research During the presidential election of 2001, Bush has clearly showed that he is completely against any researches that destruct human embryos consequently, after he won the elections in January, he had issued an executive order that prohibits federal funding for any research conducted on embryonic stem cell lines starting august, the 9th in 2001. However, this order did not affect the funding for adult SCR and back then, the president mentioned that there were more than sixty stem cell lines being funded. This order did not affect research in the private sector or state funding as well285 justifying his decision ―there are more than 60 genetically diverse stem cells lines exist, so the government should fund these existing cell lines where life and death choice has already been taken‖. He had conservative anti-abortion and religious groups supporting him. To sum up bush’s amendment: Fund will be only on the sixty existing cell lines Prohibition of destroying any living or future embryo

Such an amendment was opposed and stem cell advocacy organizations like The American Cell Therapy Research Foundation, showed their concerns regarding such a decision, complaining about the number and quality of the existing stem cell lines allowed in the decision ―there are only about two dozen legal lines, not sixty, and all have been contaminated by growing in culture with mouse cells‖, they also pointed out that ‖cell cultures may be used in drug development, so the lines in use should be representative of all the ethnic groups in the country. The current lines

285

STEM CELL FACTS. Online: international society for stem cell research, 2015. http://www.closerlookatstemcells.org/docs/default-source/patient-resources/stem-cell-facts.pdf.

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are not ethnically diverse. Infertility clinic patrons, whose surplus embryos were used as the source for most cell lines, are predominantly white”. Medical institutions believed that participating in the stem cells research will get back significant revenues for them so, the pharmaceutical companies continued their programs. However, on the other hand, University-based scientists had less funding and then the fear of abandoning academic laboratories had risen. -

2009 President Barack Obama reversed that order by issuing another executive one titled, "Removing Barriers to Responsible Scientific Research Involving Human Stem Cells" which expands the number of stem cell lines available for researchers. Sherley V. Sebelius This case is considered to be the most noteworthy court case regarding the government‘s funding of Embryonic Stem Cell Research. Scientists James Sherley, M.D., Ph.D., and Theresa Deisher, Ph.D., led a group of plaintiffs and filed a lawsuit against the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Department of Health and Human Services, claiming that federal funding of ES cell research violates the Dickey-Wicker amendment. The case was brought up against Kathleen Sebelius, the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services at that time. Eventually, in 2011, U.S. district court for the District of Columbia ruled in favor of embryonic stem cell research.

2012 Transplantation of adult Stem Cells into heart attack patients to regrow new heart tissue In 2012, adult stem cell transplantation showed progress as researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and Johns Hopkins University published results from a clinical trial as they extracted adult stem cells from patients following a heart attack. The stem cells were grown in a petri dish and were then returned to the patient‘s heart. Results showed that the treatment decreases scarring and helps regrowth of heart tissue. And that was the first demonstrated case of therapeutic regeneration. U.S. Court of appeals for D.C. hears arguments about human embryonic Stem Cells Research funding In a decision favorable to proponents of embryonic stem cell research, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit upheld a lower court ruling that dismissed a lawsuit challenging the Obama administration‘s expansion of federal funding for stem cell research. On the 7th of January, 2013, Supreme Court declined to hear Sherley v. Sebelius which was considered a turning point in the history of stem cell research. ―This is a major victory for scientifically and ethically responsible innovative research‖- Bernard Siegel, spokesperson for the

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Stem Cell Action Coalition and executive director of the Genetics Policy Institute, says in a statement. The Supreme Court announced that it will not hear Sherley v. Sebelius, thereby upholding the previous ruling of the D.C. Circuit Court's ruling. -

2014 On the 15th of October, studies showed that embryonic stem cells enhance sight in legally blind patients. 286 Also, a study published in The Lancet shows that on the long term, embryonic stem cells transplantation is safe.

B) States level: ď&#x201A;ˇ

Legalization and funding Human cloning for the purpose of developing and harvesting human stem cells is permitted in New Jersey. Specifically, it is legal to clone a human embryo and implant it into a womb on the condition that the clone is then aborted and used for medical research. California, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Hampshire, New York, Pennsylvania, Texas, Washington, and Wisconsin have shown interest in providing their own funding support of embryonic and adult stem cell research Bans and restrictions Laws were passed in Arkansas, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, North Dakota and South Dakota to prohibit the creation or destruction of human embryos for medical research and some other states seemed to prefer restricting stem cell research as much as possible or even ban it like, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and Virginia.

The debate on Stem Cells Research: Stem Cells applications and therapies are not new. Scientists have been performing bone marrow stem cell transplants for years. In any case, when researchers figured out how to extract stem cells from human embryos in 1998, ethical questions were raised and controversy followed. While scientists were fully aware of the great potential that these cells have in curing human disease, many political and religious leaders were raising questions regarding the ethical considerations and the moral ramifications of destroying human embryos and ending potential lives. Political leaders started to debate over how to control and fund research regarding human embryonic stem (ES) cells in particular. 286

â&#x20AC;&#x2014;Embryonic Stem Cells Restore Vision in Preliminary Human Testâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;, October 14, 2014, http://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2014/10/14/346174070/embryonic-stem-cells-restore-vision-in-preliminaryhuman-test.

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Proponents 287 1. Embryos are not considered as human lives. Since the embryonic cells used for research are usually harvested five to seven days after conception, it is obvious that the embryo cannot be assigned a personal identity because it is not developed enough. This is because it is just a mass of cells. Instead of destroying the excessive from the In Vitro Fertilization (IVF), Scientists can utilize them in labs putting them into greater use. Additionally, the embryos from legal abortions, which are already considered dead, would be better used to cure diseases and progress medicine instead of disposing them. 2. Stem cell research can potentially help treat a range of medical problems and a huge number of diseases: 

Parkinson‘s Disease ―by replacing dopamine-producing nerve cells in the brain‖



Heart diseases and Alzheimer‘s Disease ( through generation of different types of neurons )



Diabetes (Type 1)‖ by generation of insulin secreting pancreatic islet cells)



Birth Defects. ―congenital anomalies‖ and Spinal Cord Injuries



Replace or Repair Damaged Organs ( as production of complete organs can occur)



Reduced Risk of Transplantation (by producing cells that are not rejected by the immune system)



Stem cells can help in cancer treatment, and generation of hair follicle stem cells for treatment of baldness.

3. Adult stem cells are not sufficient. Adult stem cells or as named Tissue-specific stem cells are specific to certain tissues or organs that they live in. They can be difficult to find in the human body, and they don‘t seem to self-renew in culture as easily as embryonic stem cells do. However embryonic stem cells are unspecialized and can self-renew in culture easily which open new horizons in the medical field for new experiments and for curing many diseases. 4. Embryonic stem cells are genetically safe to use. Using the embryonic stem cells likewise ensures that the cells are free of any genetic disorders dissimilar to the adult stem cells which might have some genetic disorders and will accordingly not have the capacity to form a cure. 5. The societal expenses of numerous conditions and diseases, implies that the moral considerations concerning the embryonic stem cells use are not adequate to warrant an end to this promising therapy. 287

‗Embryonic Stem Cell Research Pros and Cons List‘, February 15, 2015, http://occupytheory.org/embryonic-stem-cellresearch-pros-and-cons-list/.

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Opponents:288

1. It is known that life starts at conception in this way the embryonic stem cells utilized for medical research ought to have a legal consideration, and should be considered as a human being. 2. The embryo constitutes life since it can possibly completely develop into a human being. So when stem cells are derived from an embryo, you are actually ending a potential life 3. By utilizing stem cells and destroying the embryo, it is believed that human life is de-valued by this process and is opening the door for further experimental strategies and medical researches that also de-value life. 4.

It is unethical and corrupt to kill one life to spare another.

5. Science should not interfere with God‘s creation and humans should not attempt to play God. 6. Most individuals won't support any utilization of public money to kill human embryos in any type of medical experiments or researches. 7. The embryonic stem cells can form tumors because of the rapid development when infused into adults. 8. Adult stem cells are the ones at present being utilized as a part of medical therapies and therefore, there is no compelling reason to wander into embryonic stem cells territory.

288

‗Embryonic Stem Cell Research Pros and Cons List‘, February 15, 2015, accessed 2016, http://occupytheory.org/embryonic-stem-cell-research-pros-and-cons-list/.

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Alternatives: There are alternatives for the stem cell research dilemma; however they haven‘t been as practical and effective as embryonic stem cells yet, as they still need further research before they can be utilized with a trusted level of success. Two new embryonic stem cell experiments maintain a may result in keeping the embryo untouched: 1. Obtaining embryonic stem cells without actually creating an embryo 289

It‘s simply a derivative of somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT), which is called Altered Nuclear Transfer (ANT), in which an embryo is not even created. In ANT, the nucleus of the somatic cell (any cell in the body other than sperm or egg cells) is altered, and hereby by the name, or genetically reprogrammed, before being transferred into the egg. The alteration process of the nucleus will result to a somatic cell DNA that produces stem cells but does not create an actual embryo. 2. Deriving embryonic stem cells without destructing the embryo: In blastomere ―one of the cells produced by the cell division of a zygote” extraction, an embryo is created however not destroyed. This technique is performed on a two-day old embryo, following the cell division of the fertilized egg ―zygote‖ into eight blastomeres or cells. Prior to this technique, the procedures used for extracting embryonic stem cells were performed at a later developmental stage, precisely when the embryo is made up of approximately 150 cells. At this later developmental stage, when ES cells were derived, the embryo was destroyed. Through this technique, ES stem cells can instead be derived from blastomeres, therefore preventing embryo destruction and opening the door for the use of stem cells in medical research and therapies and in curing diseases.290 It is unlikely that a final or a comprehensive solution will be found for the stem cell debate at any point in the near future. Meanwhile, both national and international policies along with public opinions will likely guide the research and therapy efforts for Embryonic Stem Cells. There is no doubt that stem cells have huge potential for curing disease, however, the ethical ramifications and the moral considerations will continue to raise questions.

289

‗Timeline of Major Events in Stem Cell Research Policy‘, July 28, 2015, http://www.researchamerica.org/advocacyaction/issues-researchamerica-advocates/stem-cell-research/timeline-major-events-stem-cell. 290 ‗Stem Cell Controversy‘, 2000, accessed 2016, http://www.explorestemcells.co.uk/stemcellcontroversy.html.

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First topic: Bioethics B. Cloning I)

Introduction. Researches upon stem cells especially somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT) have opened the doors for a lot of debatable issues like cloning, between the hope of science and moral restrictions the society finds itself in front of a big decision that has to be taken.

II) What is cloning? a) Definition According to National Human Genome research Institute, The term cloning is a number of different processes that eventually result in copying a biological entity. The copied genetic material is referred to as a ―clone‖. This material can be genes, cells, tissues or an entire organism like the sheep ―dolly‖ 291

How is it done? There are two ways to create an exact genetic copy of a biological entity in a lab: artificial embryo twinning and somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT).

1. Artificial Embryo Twinning. It is an approach that does not need high technology. As the name recommends, this procedure imitates the common process that makes identical twins. Naturally, twins are formed at very early stage of development, being developed when the embryo parts in two. Twinning takes place in the first days after fertilization, while the embryo is made of only a small number of unspecialized cells. Every half of the embryo keeps dividing and developing all alone, eventually forming two complete and separate babies. Since they are created from the same fertilized egg, the subsequent individuals are genetically identical. 292 Artificial embryo twinning is still used with the same methodology; however it is completed in the lab rather than inside the mother. An early embryo is isolated and separated into individual cells, 291 ‗Embryonic Stem Cell Research Pros and Cons List‘, February 15, 2015, http://occupytheory.org/embryonic-stemcell-research-pros-and-cons-list/. 292

Genetic Science Learning Center, "What is Cloning?," Learn.Genetics, 22 June 2014, <http://learn.genetics.utah.edu/content/cloning/whatiscloning/>

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which are permitted to separate and develop for a brief span in a dish. The embryos are then inserted into a surrogate mother, where they continue dividing and developing as two separate and complete individuals. Once more, since the embryos are originated from the same fertilized egg, they are genetically identical.

2. Somatic Cell Nuclear Transfer (SCNT) Somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT) and natural fertilization where sperm and egg join together are apparently the same, they both make an embryo, but the difference is in the process and the embryo. In natural fertilization, a sperm donor with half set of chromosome that carries the genetics of the donor (father) and an egg cell donor with half set of chromosome that carries the genetics of the donor (mother) are needed. They both join together to give an embryo with full set of chromosomes that carries the genetics of both donors. In case of somatic cell nuclear transfer, what is needed is a somatic cell donor ―with full set of chromosomes that carries the genetics of the donor‖, and an egg cell donor however, the nucleus inside the egg ―the cell which is responsible for carrying the genetics‖ will be excluded. The somatic cell and the egg will then be fused together using electric current or chemical substances so that it behaves as if fertilization had occurred and then will be placed in a surrogate mother. The embryo will have the full set of chromosomes as the donor of the somatic cell. Meaning, the embryo will be an exact copy.293

b) Types: It is important to understand that there are three different types of artificial cloning:

1. Recombinant DNA technology “gene cloning”. A DNA fragment ―gene‖ that researchers wish to study is transferred from one living organism into the genetic material of a carrier, for example, a bacterial plasmid. After the insertion of the gene, the carrier is allowed to multiply resulting in gene multiplication. This innovation has been around since the 1970s and is a typical practice in molecular biology labs today.294

2. Reproductive cloning. It is utilized to create a full organism that has the same nuclear DNA of another at the current time or previously existing organism. The technique used in this type is the Somatic Cell Nuclear Transfer (SCNT). Through SCNT and after the insertion into a surrogate mother, embryonic development of takes place, and theoretically,

293

Genetic Science Learning Center, "What is Cloning?," Learn.Genetics, 22 June 2014, <http://learn.genetics.utah.edu/content/cloning/whatiscloning/> 294 "Cloning Fact Sheet.‖ https://www.genome.gov/25020028.

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an organism that contain the exact genetic code of the first organism could be born after sufficient growth.295

3. Therapeutic cloning. Therapeutic cloning utilizes the same technique used in reproductive cloning, which is Somatic Cell Nuclear Transfer (SCNT). However, the main difference between reproductive and therapeutic cloning is that the goal of therapeutic cloning is to harvest stem cells aiming at creating tissues to replace injured or diseased tissues, rather than creating full organism in reproductive cloning; since stem cells can be used to study human development and to treat different medical conditions and diseases. The dilemma of therapeutic cloning is emerging from the controversy of the stem cell research itself; since therapeutic cloning is used mainly to harvest stem cells and since the extraction process of stem cells destroys the embryo, 296 which makes it ethically unacceptable. 1https://cloningsciencescif1004.files.wordpres.com/201 4/12/jci0423549-f4.jpg

III) A brief History of cloning. Cloning was never considered as a new scientific field, in fact its rich scientific history spans more than 100 years, as scientists throughout the past century have put a lot of efforts in it. Late 1800s and Early 1900s: It all started precisely in 1892, when Hans Driesch conducted an experiment on a sea urchin. Driesch discovered that if the early embryo of the sea urchin was physically separated into two cells, entire embryos were formed from each cell. This discovery remarked the first ever demonstration of artificial embryo twinning. 295

"Human Cloning." The Center for Bioethics and Culture RSS.<http://www.cbc-network.org/issues/faking-life/humancloning/> 296 "Human Cloning." The Center for Bioethics and Culture RSS.<http://www.cbc-network.org/issues/faking-life/humancloning/>

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10 years later, Hans Spemann was able to conduct artificial embryo twinning on much more complicated organisms. He fashioned a tiny noose from a strand of baby hair and tightened it between two cells of a salamander embryo until they separated. Each cell grew into an adult salamander. The success in this experiment opened the door for more work on embryos as it showed that embryos from a more-complex animal can also be ―twinned‖ to form multiple identical organisms.297 In 1938, Once more Hans Spemann using also a strand of baby hair, was able to prove that the cell nucleus controls embryonic development, as Hans was able to form an embryo from an enucleated egg(an egg from which the nucleus had been removed) after getting the nucleus from another cell. The experiment showed that the nucleus from an early embryonic cell is the one responsible of the complete development of a salamander.298 Late 1900s: Spemann‘s work regarding embryonic development and artificial embryo twinning helped pave the way for the first nuclear-transfer experiments in 1952. In 1952, Briggs and King transferred the nucleus from an early tadpole embryo into an enucleated frog egg. The resulting cell developed into a tadpole.299 This experiment showed that nuclear transfer was a valid cloning technique. It also proved two observations. First, the nucleus controls and directs cell growth as Spemann had proved before. Second, embryonic cells early in development are much more useful for cloning than cells at later stages.

The successful experiment made by Briggs and King, has made it easier for other scientists to conduct further researches regarding nuclear transfer and artificial cloning. Between 1952 and early 1990s, many experiments were conducted regarding nuclear transfer. Scientists were able to generate mammalian embryos from both differentiated cells as in the frog experiment by John Gurdon in 1958, and embryonic cells as in the cow experiment in 1987. Previous successful experiments have led Ian Wilmut and Keith Campbell in 1996 to the landmark experiment that created Dolly the Sheep.300 The experiment remarked the first successful Somatic Cell Nuclear Transfer (SCNT) by transferring the nucleus from an adult sheep's cell into an enucleated egg.

297 Spemann H. 1938. Embryonic Development and Induction. New Haven (CT): Yale University Press. 298 ―A Brief History of Cloning" Copernicus Science Centre. http://www.kopernik.org.pl/en/special-projects/archiwumprojektow/projekt-genesis/krotka-historia-klonowania/. 299 Briggs R, King TJ. 1952. Transplantation of living nuclei from blástula cells into enucleated frogs' eggs. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 38: 455–463. 300 Wilmut I. 1998. Cloning for medicine. Scientific American 279 (6): 58–63.

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Of 277 attempts, only one produced an embryo that was carried to be inserted in a surrogate mother. This famous discovery brought cloning into the spotlight. The success in these experiments not only opened the door for further experiments and application, It also opened the door for debates and conversations about the implications of cloning, controversies over human cloning and stem cell research.301 Early 2000s: The controversy over stem cells didnâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;t end at that stage. In 2007, Scientists extracted a cell from an adult monkey and fused it with an enucleated egg cell. The embryo was allowed to divide and develop for a period of time. Then the embryonic stem cells were extracted from the embryo destroying it in order to be used in medical research. This experiment remarked the success of nuclear transfer in a primates, which researchers had tried for years without success, It also showed the relationship between stem cells and cloning; as it used the therapeutic cloning and somatic cell nuclear transfer technique to be a source for embryonic stem cells, that can be used in further experiments and medical therapies. In 2013, Scientists were able to use somatic cell nuclear transfer to create a human embryo that could be used as a source of human embryonic stem cells. Scientists had extracted a skin cell from the patient and fused it with a donated egg cell. Such a discovery has started a new era in the stem cell research and cloning and raised many questions regarding the ethical considerations and moral ramifications of such progress and advancement in science and medicine.302

IV) Legal aspect. The United States intends to set laws regarding the process of human cloning; state legislations have already been put, but on the federal level, there is no issued legislation yet. President Clinton and President Bush had taken some actions as, President Bill Clinton has banned the use of all federal funds for such experiments and President Bush supported a bill that bans human cloning on April 11th, 2002 303 States have been passing laws to regulate and set rules regarding cloning. Fourteen of them like California, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Virginia have different laws but one law in common which is, banning reproductive cloning and setting tough penalties for

301 BioScience." The Biology of Cloning: History and Rationale. http://bioscience.oxfordjournals.org/content/49/11/875.full#ref-13 302 "The History of Cloning", The History of Cloning. http://learn.genetics.utah.edu/content/cloning/clonezone/ 303 http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/apr2002/2002-04-11-01.html

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whoever violates this law. In the state of Louisiana, the law that bans reproductive cloning expired in July 2003304 Arkansas, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, North Dakota and South Dakota have not only banned reproductive cloning but also extended the regulations to ban therapeutic cloning. States like Missouri and Arizona have measures which address the use of public funds for cloning without specifically prohibiting any form of cloning.

V) Arguments. Proponents Many experts claim that it can change familiesâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC; lives in many different ways. For parents who have troubles having children naturally, it can help them without needing egg or sperm donors. In addition, since same sex marriage became federally legalized, cloning will help same-sex couples to have children without needing any donors. However, male same-sex couples will only need a surrogate mother to carry their children. Cloning can also be savior or a way of relief to families who had lost a child as they can have their child cloned back. Therapeutic cloning is very beneficial as well in case of injuries; it was scientifically proven that therapeutic cloning can help in curing the injured person faster by using their own cells. Also, cloning helps save lives directly, because cloning organs are less time-consuming than waiting for available convenient organ donor, thus avoiding waiting for transplant for a long time that significantly affects the wellbeing of patients. According to the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS), every ten minutes a name is added to the national organ transplantation waiting list and averagely, twenty one lives come to an end daily because they did not have enough time to wait for the organs they needed.305 Supporters think that, not only will cloning have a very positive impact on human beings, but also on animals as we have many species facing extinction and cloning can save them.

Opponents Experts have various concerns regarding the matter. To begin with, there is a number of ethical issues regarding reproductive cloning. Those who oppose it are afraid that cloned human beings would be

304

Adrienne N Cash, ATTACK OF THE CLONES: LEGISLATIVE APPROACHES TO HUMAN CLONING IN THE UNITED STATES (n.p., 2005), http://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1146&context=dltr. 305

accessed 2016, http://donatelife.net/statistics/.

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treated as second-class humans because they believe that reproductive cloning might be the reason human beings would lack uniqueness. It might affect human individuality and freedom as well. In addition, they are worried that upon cloning children, a new concept may be adopted which fosters the understanding that children are made and designed according to the parents‘ wishes, thus altering its essence and meaning, and regarding children not as individuals with intrinsic worth who possess free will, but rather commodity that can be designed through cloning, which is the deliberate replication of existing genetic code. Another question that is important to ask is whether cloning will result in overstepping boundaries of human role in research and scientific advancement to higher role, who many perceive as the role of God not man. Apart from ethical concerns, being cloned is a major security concern because this might happen without the individual knowledge or consent as a result of us, as human beings, losing skin cells on a daily basis while doing ordinary life activities. Fast aging is another concern to keep in mind. The problem is that cloned cells are the same age of the original cells. For example, Dolly the sheep lived only six years while the original sheep lived up to twelve years and that was because the original sheep was six years old at the time of cloning. Many argue that cloning causes some serious genetic defects to embryos and offspring and there are significant safety issues face the creation of healthy clone. According to Ian Wilmut, Dolly‘s creator cloning is too dangerous to attempt ―Dolly was derived from 277 embryos, so the other 276 didn‘t make it. We have success rates of roughly one in a hundred or less‖

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Second Topic: Death Penalty I.

Introduction ..................................................................................... 129

II.

History and Constitutionality of Capital Punishment................. 129 a. Death Penalty and Juveniles ................................................ b. Crimes Punishable by Death ..................................................

III.

Types ................................................................................................ 131 a. Lethal Injections ..................................................................... b. Electrocution ........................................................................... c. Firing Squad............................................................................ d. Hanging................................................................................... e. Gassing ...................................................................................

IV.

Cases ................................................................................................ 131

Arguments........................................................................................ 132

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Second topic: Death penalty I)

Introduction: Death Penalty is the punishment of execution, administered to someone legally convicted of a capital crime. Not long after the first recorded execution in the early 1600s, voices of opposition to capital punishment were raised as death penalty has always been controversial. Over the years, the world restricted the usage of death penalty and some countries have utterly abolished it while in the US, it is still used and has got many supporters. However, the way people see death penalty and their attitude towards it has changed a lot. Firstly, people debated about whether death penalty suits civilized modern society but now, most of the debates have taken a different path questioning the fairness of capital punishment.

II)

History and constitutionality of capital punishment: The first execution took place in the 17th century at Jamestown in the British Colony of Virginia when Captain George Kendall was sentenced to death by firing squad after being accused of treason as he spied for the Spanish government. Afterwards, Public hanging was the most common execution method till the 18th century. By the beginning of the 19th century, movements to abolish death penalty had risen in a lot of states. Consequently, the use of gallows (a frame, typically wooden, used for execution by hanging or as a mean of torture before execution) was stopped, a more humane treatment of criminals was used, prisons were built and the number of capital crimes reduced. The changes appeared as some states started changing their policy regarding death penalty, in Pennsylvania executions took place in correctional facilities and were no longer in public, in Michigan, death penalty was abolished for all crimes except treason and in some other states, for all crimes except those committed by slaves, in Rhode Island and Wisconsin, it was completely abolished for all crimes and in 1838, Tennessee enacted discretionary death penalty statutes (the circumstances of the crime were to be taken into consideration), and this was considered an enormous victory for abolitionists. The efforts to abolish death penalty continued till the 20th century and as a result, six states considered death penalty illegal and three others limited it to treason and first degree murders. In 1960, questioning the constitutionality of death penalty started as abolitionists stated that it contradicts with the eighth amendment as it is â&#x20AC;&#x2022;cruel and unusualâ&#x20AC;&#x2013;. Afterwards, many cases were introduced before the Supreme Court to decide whether the death penalty is constitutional or not and the supreme court ruled to let deciding whether the death penalty should be applied or not up to the jury, and this decision opened the door for an endless debate and concerns that this decision makes the juryâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s decision flawed and not based on facts.

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In 1972, regarding Furman v. Georgia case, some argued that the death sentence was based on arbitrary factors. The court ruled that the jury total discretion in Georgia statutes may cause an arbitrary decision therefore the punishment will be ―cruel and unusual‖. Afterwards, 40 death penalty statutes were voided, sentences of 629 death row inmates were suspended which consequently made the supreme court give the power to each state to write its own statutes to prevent the problems that happened in Furman, and the states tried to put sentencing guidelines for the jury and the judge to help them decide whether to execute someone or not and these guided discretion statutes were approved in 1976 by the Supreme Court and that was known afterwards by the ―Gregg decision‖ thus, death penalty was reinstated.

Death penalty and juveniles306: The history of the juveniles and death penalty in the United States went through a lot of stops, in 1988 four justices out of five ruled that executing those under the age of 16 is unconstitutional and the fifth judge prohibited only the states who don‘t have limited age for death penalty from applying it. In 1889 the court ruled that the 8th amendment doesn‘t prohibit executing a juvenile, until in 2005 in Roper v. Simmons the court ruled that executing juveniles at the time of the crime is unconstitutional. Crimes Punishable by Death: 1.

Aggravated Murder.

Other Offenses Resulting in Death.

Terrorism-Related Offenses Resulting in Death.

Terrorism-Related Offenses Not Resulting in Death.

Drug Trafficking Not Resulting in Death.

Treason.

Espionage.

Military Offenses Not Resulting in Death.

War crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide.

10.

Other Offenses Not Resulting in Death, attempted murder.307

306 adj. a young person 307

‗Federal Laws Providing for the Death Penalty‘, 2016, accessed 2016, http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/federal-lawsproviding-death-penalty.

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Types: There are five execution methods in the US: •

Lethal Injection

The first state that adopted this type was Oklahoma in 1977, the first execution by lethal injection was in 1982, and now it is being used in 32 states. •

Electrocution

New York was the first state that built the electric chair in 1888 as a more humane method than hanging; its usage became forbidden when the Supreme Court ruled that it is unconstitutional in Feb.2008. •

Firing Squad

Its usage has been reauthorized on March 23. 2015 in Utah if only the state was unable to get enough drugs to execute by lethal injection. Execution of Ronnie Gardner on June 17, 2010 is the most recent execution by firing squad. •

Hanging

Hanging was the only method of execution till the 1890s, Delaware and Washington still use it, but they still have lethal injection as an alternative as well. •

Gassing

Nevada introduced the cyanide gas as a way of execution 1924, five states use the gas chamber but all of them have lethal injection as an alternative; as gassing was found to be a cruel method by a federal court in California.

IV. 



Cases: Stafford, his wife and his brother, the trio ended the lives of 9 innocent people in less than a month. Three of the victims were parents and their son, Melvin, Linda and their son Richard when they pulled their car over to help what was thought to be a woman with a broken-down car but instead, the family found Stafford‘s knife ending their life. The other 6 victims were steak-house workers who fell for the same trick.308 Karen Patterson, the 13 year-old girl was a neighbor to Joe Atkins who was a former veteran who served in Vietnam when he was 21. Three months after his return home in October 1969, he was arrested for a parricide (the killing of a parent or other near relative). After Joe got drunk with his half-brother Charles, the victim attacked Joe and that was when the latter ended his brother‘s life. The self-defense scenario was put into consideration. However, Joe was sentenced to life-time prison. In 1980, Joe was released on the promise of good behavior but most probably suffering from post-stress 308 ‗Murderpedia, the Encyclopedia of Murderers‘, July 1, 1995, accessed 2016, http://murderpedia.org/male.S/s1/stafford-roger-dale.htm.

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traumatic disorder (PSTD). In October 1985, Joe got drunk and started having flashbacks from his past experience in Vietnam. The murderer wore his military uniform and bore a machete (a type of firearms), went to their neighbor‘s house, killed a 13 year-old girl, Karen Patterson, In her bed and then headed to his house and killed his half-father. Joe Atkins was executed by lethal injection in South Carolina on January 23rd, 1999.309 Kennedy v. Louisiana Patrick Kennedy was found guilty of raping his eight-year-old stepdaughter in June 2008.According to Louisiana law, the district attorney is allowed to seek death penalty for rape charges of children younger than twelve years old. Patrick Kennedy tried to rely on the Supreme Court decision in Coker v. Georgia which denied capital punishment for the rape of an adult woman but his trial failed as the victim in his case was a child as Louisiana court believed that imposing death penalty in this case is legitimate, taking the unique vulnerability of children into consideration.310 Furman v. Georgia Furman mistakenly attempted a murder while burglarizing (Illegally entering a house with the intention of committing a crime, usually theft) a house as when one of the residents noticed him, Furman tried to escape but while doing so, he tripped and fell and his gun shot the resident accidentally. However, he was sentenced to death.311312

Arguments: Pros: Death penalty is a way of deterrence as according to bureau of justice statistics (figure 1)313, the number of death sentences has decreased significantly which supports the fact that death penalty deters criminals. According to Emory university economists, death penalty decreases the rate of crime by 18 crimes per execution with a margin of error plus or minus 10. So, one execution equals from eight to twenty-eight lives saved.314

309 ‗Murderpedia, the Encyclopedia of Murderers‘, accessed 2016, http://murderpedia.org/male.A/a1/atkins-josephernest.htm. 310 Chicago-Kent College of Law at Illinois Tech. "Kennedy v. Louisiana." Oyez. https://www.oyez.org/cases/2007/07343 (accessed March 8, 2016). 311 Chicago-Kent College of Law at Illinois Tech. "Furman v. Georgia." Oyez. https://www.oyez.org/cases/1971/695030 (accessed March 8, 2016). . 312 2016, accessed 2016, http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/georgia-1. 313 DEATH PENALTY STATES (31) RACE OF DEFENDANTS EXECUTED RACE OF VICTIMS IN DEATH PENALTY CASES DEATH PENALTY INFORMATION CENTER, (n.p., 2016), http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/documents/FactSheet.pdf. 314 Hashem Dezhbakhsh et al., Does Capital Punishment Have a Deterrent Effect? New Evidence from Post-Moratorium Panel Data, (n.p., 1999), http://cjlf.org/deathpenalty/DezRubShepDeterFinal.pdf.

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Figure 1 Another point to mention is that death penalty is considered ―Retribution‖ (punishment inflicted on someone as a result of wrong or criminal act) that honors the victim, a kind of consolation to the family and a way to make sure the society is protected from the condemned as the threat is totally removed. In addition, if a murderer, for instance, had deprived the victim from their life then taking his life away would be the appropriate answer. And regarding those who are skeptical towards death penalty and think it to be very cruel, they should show sympathy towards the innocent victims rather than the condemned. The fact that all the execution methods meet the United Nations declaration of human rights ―no one shall be subjected to torture or to cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment.‖ criteria as they are physically pain-free and very fast. This should be taken into consideration as well. Some people might have the fear of mistakenly wasting innocent lives however, crime scene science has progressed a lot that all the tests done eliminate any doubts towards the innocence of the condemned and the error approximately tends to zero. Those who are against death penalty think that life-time sentence is a viable alternative but it does no as paroles and escapes may give the murderer another chance to kill. 315

315

‗UN Enable - Article 15 - Freedom from Torture or Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment‘, 2007, accessed 2016, http://www.un.org/disabilities/default.asp?id=275.

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Cons: The first major and most popular argument regarding the effectiveness of death penalty is that it has a deterrent effect but that‘s not what a 2009 survey of criminologists revealed, as over 88% believed the death penalty was not a deterrent to murder. 316

In addition, when it comes to deterring terrorists, they are not scared of death. On the contrary, they strive for dangerous risks and heroic deaths. Proponents argue that the condemned should be treated non-mercifully, claiming that imprisonment is crueler that capital punishment, since prisoners are subjected to worse life conditions. Furthermore, prisoners may commit suicide due to psychological disturbance that happens as a result to lack of freedom.

Supporters are either looking for retribution as they believe it provides a closure to the victims‘ families and brings relief ignoring the fact that it does not bring the victim back to life, or they are seeking punishment and deterrence. And speaking of the latter, that‘s not what capital punishment is

316

‗The Death Penalty and Deterrence‘, 2016, accessed 2016, http://www.amnestyusa.org/our-work/issues/deathpenalty/us-death-penalty-facts/the-death-penalty-and-deterrence.

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doing as it is indirectly supporting the right to kill those who have offended other people through what academicians call‖ brutalization effect‖ 317

Another aspect to look at is that death penalty is more expensive than life-time sentence and we should be considering that as it affects tax payers.318

317

‗The Death Penalty and Deterrence‘, 2016, accessed 2016, http://www.amnestyusa.org/our-work/issues/deathpenalty/us-death-penalty-facts/the-death-penalty-and-deterrence. 318

‗Kansas Facts‘, 2016, accessed 2016, http://ksabolition.org/facts/kansas-facts.

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Source: Death Penalty Information Center It is a tough decision to end someoneâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s life even if they have committed a crime. Should they be given a second chance or rather be prisoned for life than be executed or, should their lives be ended to set an example and protect the society from any further potential dangers?

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Third Topic: Prostitution I.

Introduction ..................................................................................... 138

II.

What is Prostitution? ...................................................................... 138

III.

Legal Aspect..................................................................................... 139 a. b. c. d.

Mann Act ................................................................................ Red Light Abatement Law ..................................................... Penal Code .............................................................................. Pornography and Prostitution .................................................

IV.

The Debate over Prostitution ......................................................... 142

Sexually Transmitted Diseases ...................................................... 142

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THIRD TOPIC: PROSTITUTION Introduction Prostitution has been a topic of debate for decades, although sex workers have existed since the beginning of history. Debating over whether prostitution is a free choice or a crime is due to the effects and consequences linked to either criminalizing and decriminalizing it. It has long been related to concerns such as sexually transmitted diseases, rape, violence, and, the international security issue, human trafficking – which is defined by the United Nations as trading human beings for purposes such as prostitution, slavery or forced labor – or sex trafficking.319 What is Prostitution? Prostitution is getting involved in sexual services and getting paid in return. Prostitutes can offer their services and be paid in many ways but mostly, they are paid money. Prostitution takes several forms, such as:         

Street: takes place in public streets. In vehicles or temporary premises and it is very widespread. Brothel: Premises only for sexual activity and it is often licensed by authorities. In addition, it is more preferred as it is more protected and private. Escort: it is the most covert type as the service is provided in a hotel or at the clients‘ home and the client is contacted with sex worker or hotel staff. Private: the same as escort, the only difference is that the service is provided at the sexworker‘s place. Club, pub, bar, karaoke bar, dance hall: takes place in alcohol vending venues and the client is served at the same place or elsewhere. Other all-male venues: takes place in places where large groups of men are. For example, saunas, barbershop, bathhouses, massage parlors and mining camps. Transport (ship, truck, train): passengers on board or in terminal halls and staff are served by sex workers who get on board for that purpose. Travelling entertainers: Actors, dancers and others involved in entertainment may also provide sexual services 'Sex for drugs': drugs are the way clients pay.320

319

Legal Prostitution and Sex Trafficking: From The Annals Of Bad Economic Research http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/06/15/legal-prostitution-and-sex-trafficking-from-the-annals-of-badeconomic-research/#5a7a034d5da5 320

C Harcourt and B Donovan, The Many Faces of Sex Work, 81, no. 3 (June 1, 2005), accessed 2016, http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1744977/pdf/v081p00201.pdf.

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Legal Aspect Although several countries around the world legalize prostitution and consider it a free choice, prostitution is legal in only eleven counties in the state of Nevada in the United States. All other 49 states criminalize prostitution, however, their punishment varies in the fine and years of imprisonment according to each state. 321 Mann act Known as the White Slave Traffic Act, Mann act is a federal criminal statute intended to stop the trafficking of persons among state lines for immoral purposes, making the transportation of a person for the purpose of prostitution or ―any immoral purpose‖ a felony. The act was amended by the congress in 1978 to attack the problem of children pornography.322 Red light abatement law323324 The Red Light Abatement Act is a vice law – a law related to crime offenses related to prostitution or pornography. It had intended to abolish prostitution. The Act was passed by the California legislature and signed by Governor Hiram Johnson in 1913, and became effective on 3 November 1914. Consequently, all the brothels around the state were shut down fines were imposed on any building owner where prostitution took place. As a result, building owners became very watchful when renting their properties. For example, they would become cautious, and sometimes do not allow a single woman or any woman regardless of her marital status to rent a first-floor apartment. However, this backfired as the practice moved to streets, making it more dangerous.i Penal code section 266i325

 

It is California pimping and pandering law which states that anyone will be charged with pandering if: Someone persuades another to take part in commercial sex or to work in a house of prostitution If someone uses fraud, artifice, duress, or abuse of position to involve another in prostitution. ―(a) Except as provided in subdivision (b), any person who does any of the following is guilty of pandering, a felony, and shall be punishable by imprisonment in the state prison for three, four, or six years: (1) Procures another person for the purpose of prostitution. (2) By promises, threats, violence, or by any device or scheme, causes, induces, persuades, or encourages another person to become a prostitute. 321

http://www.hg.org/prostitution-law.html ‗Federal Mann Act‘, 2009, accessed 2016, http://prostitution.uslegal.com/federal-mann-act/. 323 ‗Welcome to the Department of History‘, 2016, accessed 2016, http://history.sfsu.edu/. 324 ‗California Nuisance Abatement, Proposition 4 (1914)‘, 2016, accessed 2016, http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/California_Proposition_4,_the_Red_Light_Abatement_Act_%281914%29. 325 ‗Law Section‘, accessed 2016, http://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=PEN&sectionNum=266i. 322

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(3) Procures for another person a place as an inmate in a house of prostitution or as an inmate of any place in which prostitution is encouraged or allowed within this state. (4) By promises, threats, violence, or by any device or scheme, causes, induces, persuades, or encourages an inmate of a house or prostitution, or any other place in which prostitution is encouraged or allowed, to remain therein as an inmate. (5) By fraud or artifice, or by duress of person or goods, or by abuse of any position of confidence or authority, procures another person for the purpose of prostitution, or to enter any place in which prostitution is encouraged or allowed within this state, or to come into this state or leave this state for the purpose of prostitution. (6) Receives or gives, or agrees to receive or give, any money or thing of value for procuring, or attempting to procure, another person for the purpose of prostitution, or to come into this state or leave this state for the purpose of prostitution. (b) Any person who does any of the acts described in subdivision (a) With another person who is a minor is guilty of pandering, a felony, and shall be punishable as follows: (1) If the other person is a minor 16 years of age or older, the offense is punishable by imprisonment in the state prison for three, four, or six years. (2) If the other person is under 16 years of age, the offense is punishable by imprisonment in the state prison for three, six, or eight years.‖ Pornography and Prostitution Pornography is any material that has sexual content and aims to stimulate sexual excitement, this material can be printed or visual, for example: a movie or a magazine. 326 While both prostitution and pornography are sexual activities, pornography is sometimes considered to be a form of art. Theoretically porn stars are paid to act, and according to the first amendment of the United States constitution, the freedom of artistic expression is protected. Thus, pornography cannot be banned.327 However, there are some cases where pornography was not treated as art. People v. Freeman case328 In 1983, Harold Freeman, pornography producer, was charged with five counts for producing pandering charges – gratifying or indulging an immoral or distasteful desire or taste or a person with such a desire or taste – for the film, and was found guilty on all five counts. The court of appeal, in a split decision, affirmed Freeman's conviction. The California Supreme Court granted review on appeal. Pursuant to the pandering law, Penal Code section 266i, the trial court was required to sentence the defendant to a minimum of three years in prison. However, the trial court found that imposition of a three year prison term in this case would constitute cruel and unusual 326

Sexual Diversity and Sexual Offending: Research, Assessment, and Clinical Treatment in Psychosexual Therapy, ISBN: 178181368X, 9781781813683 327 ‗Why Is Pornography Legal and Prostitution Is Not‘, 1995, accessed 2016, http://www.hg.org/article.asp?id=31164. 328 Philip M Cohen, People v. Freeman - No End Runs on the Obscenity Field or You Can’t Catch Me from behind, (n.p., 2015), http://digitalcommons.lmu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1158&context=elr.

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punishment. The court therefore granted Freeman probation. The court of appeal affirmed this sentence. On August 25, 1988, the California Supreme Court unanimously declared: ―the prosecution of defendant under the pandering statute must be viewed as a somewhat transparent attempt at an 'end run' around the First Amendment and the state obscenity laws‖. Accordingly, the court overturned Freeman's conviction. The California Supreme Court's reasoning paralleled the position of the dissenting justice and contrasted strongly with the majority and concurring opinions in the court of appeal. In this first appeal of the trial court decision in affirming Freeman's conviction, stated that although movies and books have been protected by the first amendment, that constitutional protection was not applicable in this case since ―a criminal act is not protected under the First Amendment‖, merely because it occurs within the context of a motion picture production. Since Freeman hired the actresses to engage in ―acts or [sic] prostitution‖ – which is defined in numerous California cases as the engaging in sexual conduct for money – and the actresses did perform sexual acts for money, thus the defendant was guilty. The judge based his concurring opinion, for the most part, on two cases, People v. Fixler and People ex rel. Van De Kamp v. American Art Enterprises. In Fixler, a photographer and a photo editor who hired a young girl to be photographed while engaging in lewd and sexual acts were convicted of violating the pandering statute. In American Art Enterprises, a building used for both hiring people to engage in sex acts which were photographed and the production and distribution of sexually explicit magazines was held to be a place where prostitution occurred and thus subject to the provisions of the Red Light Abatement Law. Justice Argulles cited these cases for the proposition that being paid to have sexual intercourse while being photographed is prostitution. In addition, Penal Code section 266i can be used, according to Fixler, to prosecute a photographer and a film editor for hiring a woman to engage in lewd acts.34 Justice Arguelles reasoned that since there is no essential difference between still photographs and motion pictures, the statute was applicable to Freeman. As to first amendment considerations, Justice Arguelles stated that the prosecution here, like that in Fixler, was based on conduct and not on a communication of ideas. Although the film was protected under the first amendment, Freeman was not shielded from prosecution for the illegal acts committed while producing the film. Those acts of hiring actresses to have sex on camera were not protected expression, but rather criminal conduct, according to Justice Arguelles. Freeman appealed to the California Supreme Court, which subsequently overturned his conviction, finding that the California pandering statute was not intended to cover the hiring of actors who would be engaging in sexually explicit but non-obscene performances. Freeman could only have been lawfully convicted of pandering if he had paid the actors for the purpose of sexually gratifying himself or the actors. The court relied upon the language of the statute

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for this interpretation, as well as the need to avoid a conflict with the First Amendment right to free speech. The court viewed Freeman's conviction as "a somewhat transparent attempt at an 'end run' around the First Amendment and the state obscenity laws." The State of California unsuccessfully tried to have this judgment overturned by the United States Supreme Court. Justice Sandra Day O'Connor denied a stay of the California Supreme Court's judgment, finding that its ruling was founded on an adequate and independent basis of state law. The full Court subsequently denied the petition for review. The Debate over Prostitution Arguing over whether prostitution is a free choice or a crime is supported by facts, which are the effects prostitution has on both sex workers and society. Opponents argue that prostitution increases human trafficking rates and sexually transmitted diseases, additionally, they suggest that the business of prostitution is a social crime as it is based on racism, sex inequality, poverty and discrimination. 329 While proponents argue that legalizing prostitution creates a safer work environment for sex workers, where they get access to medical care, and it decreases rape and violence rates. Also, they argue that prostitution should be a free choice. Sexually Transmitted Diseases Sexually transmitted diseases (STD), sometimes referred to as sexually transmitted infections (STI) include several types such as Chlamydia, Gonorrhea and Genital herpes, which are transmitted through sexual intercourse. According to American Sexual Health Association, more than half of Americans will have STDs at some point in their life, 20 million new infections are developed each year and many teenagers aged between fifteen and eighteen are at risk of having an STD as each year; one in four teens gets infected with one. About half of all new STDs/STIs in 2000 were among youth ages 15 to 24.330 It is believed that addressing this issue and helping sex workers be healthier is a solution. One argument that supports prostitution is that keeping the test workers regularly checked up will decrease the rate of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) During the 20th International AIDS Conference in Australia, researchers presented a paper, in which they have studied HIV among female workers in India, Canada and Kenya, they concluded that HIV infections could be reduced by 33% to 46% in countries decriminalizing prostitution, since health care is more accessible. When more laws are enacted to regulate such business take place, it is possible to prohibit the transmission of STDs through sex workers, the paper suggests. 331 329

Human Trafficking and Prostitution, http://www.psysr.org/issues/trafficking/farley.php October 13, 2015, accessed 2016, http://thefederalist.com/2015/10/13/what-if-we-regulated-cocksnotglocks/. 331 Decriminalization of sex work could reduce HIV infection: Washington Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decriminalization-of-sex-work-could-reduce-hivinfections/2014/07/21/890a3f8e-110c-11e4-98ee-daea85133bc9_story.html 330

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However, from an opponent perspective, this theory doesn‘t seem practical. Jeffrey J. Barrows, Health Consultant on Human Trafficking for the Christian Medical Association, wrote the article "HIV and Prostitution: What's the Answer?" posted Sep. 9, 2005 on The Center for Bioethics and Human Dignity website that stated: "Even if a prostitute is being tested every week for HIV, she will test negative for at least the first 4-6 weeks and possibly the first 12 weeks after being infected...This means that while the test is becoming positive and the results are becoming known, that prostitute may expose up to 630 clients to HIV. This is under the best of circumstances with testing every week and a four-week window period. It also assumes that the prostitute will quit working as soon as he or she finds out the test is HIV positive, which is highly unlikely. This is not the best approach for actually reducing harm. Instead, in order to slow the global spread of HIV/AIDS we should focus our efforts on abolishing prostitution." Rhode Island Legislation in 1980 Proponents of legalizing prostitution assume that it can reduce violence and sex crimes. As in 1980, Rhode Island accidentally legalized prostitution. That happened when legislators were modifying some laws concerning prostitution and accidentally, deleted the part that refers to prostitution as a crime. That mistake was left unnoticed until 2003. During this period, more people were involved in the sex industry, but on the other hand, the number of rape cases decreased by 31% and there was a 39% decrease in the incidence number of gonorrhea (an STD). 332 333 334

332

‗Study: Rhode Island‘s Accidental Experiment with Legal Prostitution Sharply Cut Rape Cases‘, July 15, 2014, accessed 2016, http://theweek.com/speedreads/450011/study-rhode-islands-accidental-experiment-legal-prostitutionsharply-cut-rape-cases. 333 ‗The Strange Story of How Rhode Island Accidentally Legalized Prostitution‘, Business Insider, July 22, 2014, accessed 2016, http://www.businessinsider.com/how-rhode-island-accidentally-legalized-prostitution-2014-7. 334 ‗Top 10 Reasons Why Prostitution Should Be Legalized‘, All Culture, December 8, 2014, accessed 2016, http://www.listland.com/top-10-reasons-prostitution-legalized/.

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Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs

Congressional Research Service Report Prepared By: Chairman Malak Ayman Ranking Member Ahmed Reda

Vice-Chairlady Esraa El Ghannam Party Consultant Mostafa Sabry

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Committeeâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s History and Jurisdiction: The Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs is the chief oversight committee of the U.S. Senate. Its primary responsibilities are to study the efficiency, economy, and effectiveness of all agencies and departments of the federal government; evaluate the effects of laws enacted to reorganize the legislative and executive branches of government; and study the intergovernmental relationships between the U.S. and states and municipalities, and between the U.S. and international organizations of which the U.S. is a member. The year after passage of the Homeland Security Act of 2002, the Committee's name changed from the Governmental Affairs Committee to the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee as its jurisdiction expanded to include homeland security issues. In addition to governmental affairs, the Committee now oversees and receives legislation, messages, petitions, and memorials on all matters relating to the Department of Homeland Security and its agencies like the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

Subcommittees of Committee on Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs: 1- Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations (PSI) 2- Financial and Contracting Oversight (FCO) 3- The Efficiency and Effectiveness of Federal Programs and the Federal Workforce (FPFW) 4- Emergency Management, Intergovernmental Relations and the District of Columbia (EMDC)

Chairman Ron Johnson Republican Wisconsin

Ranking Member Tom Carper Democrat Delaware

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“Since the tragedies, the Department of Homeland Security was established to prevent terrorist attacks within the United States, and most importantly, to share intelligence information among government agencies and departments.” Randy Forbes “We maintain the peace through our strength; weakness only invites aggression.” Ronald Reagan “Homeland security must protect citizens, not intrude on them.” Barack Obama.

Special Dedication: To the honorable delegates of the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs HLS’16 Team

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First Topic: Weapons of Mass Destruction I.

Overview .......................................................................................... 148

II.

Biological Weapons ......................................................................... 148 a. Why Are Biological Weapons Dangerous? ........................... b. Types....................................................................................... c. Historical Overview ............................................................... d. U.S. Defense efforts against Biological Weapons .................

III.

Chemical Weapons.......................................................................... 153 a. Why Are Chemical Weapons Dangerous ............................... b. Historical Overview ................................................................

IV.

Nuclear Weapons ............................................................................ 155 a. Types....................................................................................... b. Hiroshima and Nagasaki......................................................... c. Cuban Missile Crisis ............................................................... Doctrines of Nuclear Weapons ...................................................... 157

V. VI.

VII. VIII.

Non Proliferation Treaty ................................................................ 158 a. The Islamic Republic of Iran .................................................. b. North Korea ............................................................................ c. India ........................................................................................ d. Pakistan ................................................................................... e. Israel ....................................................................................... f. South Sudan ............................................................................ Nuclear Preparedness ..................................................................... 167 National Nuclear Security Administration ................................... 169 a. Programs of the NNSA ........................................................... b. Emergency Response ..............................................................

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Weapons of Mass Destruction Overview The dictionary defines the ―Weapons of Mass Destruction‖ or (WMDs) as a nuclear, biological or chemical weapon that are able to cause widespread devastation and loss of life. But luckily for mankind, there has been some wise voices calling for peace, calling for wisdom and calling for removing all the WMDs from our world. But how will the ―Weapons of Mass Destruction‖ saga end? Will it be the age of extermination of mankind? or is it going to be the age of prosperity? In this paper we‘ll analyze the biological, chemical and nuclear weapons focusing on their lethality and how they‘ve spread fear all over the world. We‘ll also discuss some countermeasures adopted by The United States in order to combat the WMDs

Biological Weapons It‘s a virus, bacterium, fungus or parasite that can be used purposely to spread a disease. These diseases can range from a common flu to a serious disease causing death. The Biological weapons also affect other living organisms335

Why Are Biological Weapons Dangerous? As a matter of fact, Biological weapons are considered to be the least type of WMDs to be used and the hardest to discover. People fear the Biological weapons, countries fear to use it even though a simple virus may end the war at once. The biological weapon is a virus, those who will employ and use it cannot by any means predict how the virus will spread, it may destroy the enemy, but it can also backfire and infect the population of the country which used the biological weapon at first. So using a biological weapon can be regarded as a gamble with a significant chance to either win a war or destroy one‘s own country. Biological weapons can also spread at a very fast rate; you can use the virus in The United States to find the virus spreading in Japan, that‘s why most countries regard unleashing a biological weapon as a last but destructive option. Another reason why the Biological weapons are dangerous is the low cost in producing these weapons. In 1969, the cost of producing a biological weapon that would cause 50% casualties per square kilometer was one dollar. Compared the cost of producing a conventional weapon is 2000 dollars. Some people even call the biological weapons ―A Poor man‘s nuclear weapon‖.336

335 336

http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/resources/fact-sheets/critical-issues/4579-biological-weapons http://www3.nd.edu/~techrev/Archive/Spring2002/a10.html

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Types of Biological Weapons337 There are 3 types of Biological agents that can be weaponized; these agents differ in strength and effect. • Bacterial agents: single cell organisms that cause diseases such as tularemia, plague and anthrax – which is considered the deadliest bacterial agents as it can cause death in 24-36 hours and it easily spreads among citizens, according to some estimates 220 pounds of anthrax spread around Washington, D.C. can kill from 1-3 million person. • Toxins: Poisons that can be weaponized and extracted from snakes, insects and some plants. Examples of toxins are ricin and botulin which can cause death in a period of 3-8 days. • Viral diseases: these diseases can be caused by viruses that can be weaponized. There are many types of viral agents one of them is Ebola virus which spread in 1995 killing 316 person in Zaire (The Democratic Republic of Congo). Another example is the small pox virus which is stored only on secret labs and military facility and it spreads in a fast manner.

Historical Overview: There have been multiple uses of Biological weapons since the dawn of ages but the first recorded usage of Biological weapons (in its most primitive form)dates back to 1346 when the Mongol forces used the catapult to throw dead bodies infected by Plague over the walls of Caffa (Ukraine) now. Some Historians believe that this incident was one of the reasons of the widespread of the Black Plague in Europe which later harvested 25 million lives. 338 During Modern history, it was also proved that Germany intended to use horses and cattle carrying some biological agents such as: Anthrax and glandes to export these horses to the United States. There are also some allegations the Germans dropped Biological bombs over Britain. The fear caused by the Weapons of Mass Destruction enforced the international community to sign the ―Geneva Protocol‖ in 1925, a total of 108 states (including the 5 Permanent members of the UN) to sign this treaty which aimed at limiting the usage of Weapons of Mass Destruction. Yet countries continued financing research to innovate other biological weapons.339 It was clear that the ―Geneva Protocol‖ didn‘t achieve its purpose, so the UK decided to submit a proposal to the UN in 1969 to supervise, control and ban the use of Biological weapons. Two weeks later, the Soviet Union and its allies submitted a proposal that was similar to Britain‘s proposal. So in 1972, The Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on Their Destruction (BWC) which bans countries from producing any excess amounts of biological agents and to only produce it for defense purposes, it also obliges the signatory countries to destroy its stockpile of Biological weapons as well as the delivery system after the treaty goes into effect. 103 countries signed this agreement and it 337

http://www.enquirer.com/editions/1999/01/09/loc_types_of_chemical.html http://www.emedicinehealth.com/biological_warfare/article_em.htm 339 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1200679/ 338

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went into effect in March 1975. The United States was one of the countries that signed the treaty; it also ended its Biological weapons program in 1969 during Nixon‘s Era.340

The Rajneesh Attack The only recorded usage of a Biological weapon on The United States soil is the Rajneesh attack which occurred in 1984 when a group of Bhgawn Shree Rajneesh (An Indian Spiritual teacher) followers decided to infect Dallas, Oregon‘s population with salmonellas to give their candidate – Rajneesh- an edge over his opponent in order to be able to extract building permits easily without clashes with Oregon‘s council. Their plan had two phases, the first phase was infecting the population with salmonellas when groups consisting of two persons each of Rajneesh followers went to 10 restaurants and poured salmonellas infected salsa on the salad bars of these 10 restaurants, the result was 751 people to be sent to the hospital. The second phase involved the transportation of many poor people to the voting places to vote for Rajneesh in return the voters will receive food, shelter and clothes. Following investigations, it was discovered that the Rajneesh were responsible for this act. Rajneesh paid 400,000$ dollars fine and was deported back to India, Ma Annand Sheela, the mastermind behind the attack was captured and he spent 29 months in prison and then was deported back to India as well.341

Defense against Biological Weapons The defense against Biological weapons involves five steps: Prevention, Protection, detection, treatment, Decontamination. Prevention occurred through the disarmaments convention (The Geneva Protocol and the BWC convention) which have prevented the signatory countries from producing any biological agents and that their usage will only be for defense purposes, and of course the countries use their intelligence assets to indicate any possible threat. Protection against biological warfare is quite limited; the Protection ranges from (masks, Protective suits and clothing). The most vital source of protection against biological agents is vaccination which provides limited to no protection against genetically engineered agents. Detection of a biological agent takes from few hours to few days, the current detectors include: Sensitive Membrane Antigen Rapid Test (SMART), Joint Biological Point Detection System (JBPDS), Biological Integrated Detection System (BIDS) and Interim Biological Agent Detector (IBAD). Treatment: Treatment of biological agents is done through producing vaccines and distributing them during a biological warfare which is considered the main aim of the Bio-shield act which has been a direct cause of producing a huge stockpile of vaccines since its initiation.

340 341

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1200679/ http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/06/a-strange-but-true-tale-of-voter-fraud-and-bioterrorism/372445/

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Decontamination: The decontamination of a biological agent is done through heat, Ultraviolet rays and chemicals which kill the virus or the biological agent.342

The U.S. Defense Efforts against Biological Weapons The US defense against biological warfare has significantly improved due to the increased spending specially after the 9/11 attack. The most important line of defense that any country has against the biological weapons is the medical system that has been founded to deal with a biological attack. The United States now have enough vaccines for each and every citizen on its land against smallpox and enough anthrax vaccines to be used for the army members. The vaccines against plague have also been approved for use but only a small amount has been produced. On the other hand, the sensors and detectors for a biological agent are ineffective now in the United States. But researches are being conducted with the aim of ―Detect to warn‖ system which allows people to take shelter before being infected, the current program is a ―detect to treat‖ which discovers the agent after a significant amount of time. The Department of Health and the Department of Homeland Security have invested heavily in defense efforts and provided all the focus to the Bio-shield program and the Laboratory response program.343

(1)The Bio-shield Act The Bio-Shield Act is one of the latest initiatives undertaken by the U.S. government to combat Biological, Chemical, Radiological and Nuclear weapons also known as (CBRN). This act was introduced to the Congress by President George W. Bush and was officially signed by President Bush after passing the Congress in 2004. This act authorized 5.6 billion dollars over the period of 10 years to combat Biological and chemical agents. Project Bio-shield also aims to facilitate the distribution process and reduce the time period needed to distribute antinodes from 18-24 months to 6 months.344 During the 113th congress, The Project Bio-shield was extended for another 5 years (2014-2019) with a budget of 2.8 billion dollars. Under some terms, the Government can buy countermeasures from pharmaceutical companies to encourage the research of CBRN countermeasures, the conditions are: • The countermeasure is efficient. • It has no side effects Achievements of the Bio-shield act • Purchasing of 75 million doses of vaccines against anthrax in 2004. • The usage of 1.1 billion dollars to purchase vaccines against small pox.

342

http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/resources/fact-sheets/critical-issues/4579-biological-weapons http://www.britannica.com/technology/biological-weapon 344 http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2004/07/20040721-2.html 343

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â&#x20AC;˘ The usage of 235 million dollars to acquire nuclear countermeasures.345

(2)Laboratory Response Program(LRN) The LRN is a program which started in 1999 aiming to create a network of more than 150 labs to respond to Biological and Chemical threats. There are 3 types of labs which are included in this program, each with a different mission. a) National Laboratories: including those operated by the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute for Infectious Diseases and The Naval Medical Research System, they are responsible for specialized strain characterizations, bio forensics, select agent activity, and handling highly infectious biological agents. b) Reference Laboratories are responsible for investigation and/or referral of specimens, they do not only operate in the US but there are some reference laboratories which are affiliated with the program in Canada, Australia, U.K., Mexico and South Korea. c) Sentinel laboratories play a key role in the early detection of biological agents. Sentinel laboratories provide routine diagnostic services, rule-out, and referral steps in the identification process. While these laboratories may not be equipped to perform the same tests as LRN reference laboratories, they can test samples.346 LRN Achievements The LRN labs along with the Center for Diseases Control and Prevention (CDC) and Food and Drug administration (FDA), have succeeded in discovering a low cost, high confidence detecting test for the Avian Influenza (H5N1) which will make the US better prepared. Bio-Watch, an Environmental surveillance effort uses a network of air samplers in high dense areas to test for the presence of chemical or biological agents around the clock. At the end of the day, the filters inside the air samplers are removed and sent to the LRN labs to be analyzed and a positive result will initiate an established Emergency program.347 Another LRN achievement is the existence of at least one Bio-Safety level3 (BSL-3) ** connected to the LRN program has the ability to test for infectious agents that can cause serious or potentially lethal diseases in 46 states. The goal of the program is to have one (BSL-3) lab in each of the 50 states.348

345

https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/terror/R43607.pdf http://emergency.cdc.gov/lrn/biological.asp 347 http://emergency.cdc.gov/lrn/examples.asp ** Biosafety level: are set of precautions required to isolate dangerous biological agents. BSL1 is the lowest and BSL4 is the highest level 348 http://emergency.cdc.gov/lrn/infrastructure.asp 346

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(3)Strategic National Stockpile program This program was created in 1999 to ensure the US safety against Biological and chemical agents, which has a primary mission of gathering different medicines and vaccines and distributing them on different states in the case of emergency in the period within 12 hours of a federal decision to deploy the stockpile. The whole operation is under the supervision of the Secretary of Health and the Secretary of Homeland Security. Whenever a terrorist attacks or a biological or a chemical agents is detected, the State has the right to request deployment of vaccines to be able to combat such a crisis. Federal personnel work along with state officials to determine what type of vaccines will be needed. The SNS program has also the right to deploy vaccines that have been authorized under the FDA‘s Emergency Use Authorization which allows the usage of unapproved vaccines/medicine if certain criteria are met.349 Achievements of the SNS • Deployment of vaccines in the period of emergencies or when the state inventory of medicines becomes completely exhausted. These crises including but not limited to: The 2001 anthrax attacks, foodborne hepatitis A, and encephalitis.5, H1N1 influenza. During the period in which H1N1 was considered as a threat, the SNS deployed a huge number of vaccines in an accelerated time frame. • The program has also extended recently to include certain agents that can be used in the case of a nuclear crisis, these agents include: Prussian Blue, Calcium and Zinc DTPA and Growth Factors/Cytokines for white blood cells • There is a stockpile present specifically in the case of a chemical attack and it is called ―CHEMPACKS‖ which provides access to nerve agents‘ antidotes.350

Chemical Weapons Types of Chemical Weapons351 Chemical weapons can be in a liquid or a gaseous form. These agents have incapacitating effects on humans and environment alike. Chemical agents are divided into several categories: 

Chocking Agents: Affect the human‘s respiratory system, particularly their lungs in extreme cases. Lung becomes filled with liquid as a result, and death occurs due to inability to breathe.

349

http://www.astho.org/Programs/Preparedness/Public-Health-Emergency-Law/Emergency-Use-AuthorizationToolkit/Strategic-National-Stockpile-Fac t-Sheet/ 350 http://www.remm.nlm.gov/sns.htm 351 Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. ‗‘types of chemical weapons‘‘<https://www.opcw.org/aboutchemical-weapons/types-of-chemical-agent/>

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Blister Agents: An oily substance that act via inhalation and contact with skin. It begins as an irritant and then as a cell poison, it mainly affects the human eyes, respiratory system in addition to skin. Examples: Sulfur Mustard and Nitrogen Mustard. Blood Agents: Enter human body through inhalation. They inhibit the ability of blood cells to transfer oxygen as a result they cause the body to suffocate. Examples: Hydrogen Cyanide and Arsine. Nerve Agents: Acquired their name because they affect the transmission of the nerve impulses in the nervous system. This kind is highly toxic and it‘s absorbed via the skin and respiration.

There are other types of chemical agents like: Riot control agents, Potential CW agents, mustard agents, Psychotomimetic agents and toxins.

Why are Chemical Weapons dangerous? Chemical weapons are considered lethal weapons because a variety of symptoms in their victims, these symptoms depends on the chemical agent used, the victim can exhibit a combination of symptoms. It can cause psychological and physical effects. Without doubt, chemical weapons have a divesting impact on those who are exposed to it, besides, the direct exposure of chemical weapons involves the migration of these chemicals into the ground and the water people drink from where they rapidly ― bio-accumulate‘‘ in the food chain.352

Historical overview Chemical weapons were used as early as 600 B.C, the weapons were not as sophisticated as they are today but it caused great damage to the opposing enemy. The first use of chemical weapons in its most primitive form was during the wars between the Athenians and the Spartans when the Athenians used some chemicals to poison the water wells –a technique which gave them the upper hand against their enemies. Also one of the famous techniques in the early age was poisoning the heads of the arrow to guarantee the death of the enemy. But it wasn‘t until the 19th and 20th century did mankind discover the deadly Chemical agents, these gases gave the country which owned them not only a tactical advantage but it also gave this country a psychological advantage by planting the seed of fear within the enemy‘s forces. Chemical weapons were used extensively in the First and Second World War, leaving behind a legacy of pain and destruction that will never be wept away from history. In WWI, lethal weapons were used for the first time when Germany attacked allied troops outside Ypres, Belgium with chlorine acid. This is a one incident of many incidents.353

352

Weiss, Thomas C. (2013-05-08). Health Impact of Chemical Weapons. Retrieved from<< http://www.disabledworld.com/editorials/weapons.php>> 353 Horald, maass. ‗‘A brief history of chemical warfare‘‘ 7 September 2013. The week. <http://theweek.com/articles/460335/brief-history-chemical-warfare>

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Even though chemical weapons have been used on a large scale during WWI, WWII, the IranianIraqi war and the Gulf War; there has only been one recorded use of a chemical agent on U.S. soil.

The 2001 Anthrax attacks The 2001 Anthrax attack was also known as ―Amerithrax‖ according to the FBI case name. It occurred only 9 days after the 9/11 attacks and on the 18th of September, 2001. Five envelopes containing anthrax spores were sent to the Democratic leaders, Senator Patrick Leahy and Thomas Daschle and to other members of the media in New York City, Boca Raton and Florida, The anthrax spores caused the death of five people and 17 others were sent to hospitals. The investigation of this case lasted for 7 years and was undertaken by the FBI field offices in Miami, New York, Haven, Baltimore and Washington D.C, they firstly took Dr. Steven j. Hatfill as person of interest who worked for USAMRIID and had unrestricted access to the Ames strain, but after the development of the scientific spores in 2007 within this case, The RMR was established to be the parent material to the anthrax that was used in this attack. The discovery helped in knowing those who entered the USAMRIID lab when the RMR-1029 was stored between 11 and 18th of September 2001 and 1st and 8th of October 2001, as a result, Dr. Bruce Ivins who suffered from psychological problems was taken as person of interest and when the FBI searched his properties they found several letters that he had sent them before to the congress. In summer 2008, the FBI announced documents showing that charges is about to be brought against Dr. Bruce Ivins, but before he was charged he committed suicide. The investigation concluded by confirming that Dr. Ivins was the guilty party. Even though the attacks were not on a large scale but the timings of the attacks caused so much turmoil and it brought the US attention to focusing on the defense against chemical and biological agents which were already discussed in the previous part.354

Nuclear Weapons Types of Nuclear Weapons355 There are two main types of nuclear weapons: 1. The atomic bomb : Atomic bombs use nuclear fission as its main reaction where the nucleus of a heavy atom like highly enriched Uranium or Plutonium is split into two smaller nuclei and neutrons are released, These produced neutrons under high pressure generate an uncontrolled chain reaction by compressing fissile material where neutrons are absorbed by other nuclei which in turn split releasing more neutrons.

354

Trust for America‘s Health. ‘‘Summary of the Investigation into the Anthrax Attack‘‘ August 3, 2011. <http://healthyamericans.org/health-issues/story/summary-of-the-investigation-into-the-anthrax-attacks> 355 https://www.iaea.org/

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Only this uncontrolled chain reaction is capable of producing an explosion or developing an atomic bomb. e.g.: Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb. 2. The Fusion bomb: Also referred to as thermonuclear or hydrogen bomb. Its reaction is based on the combining of two nuclei, particularly the collision of two hydrogen nuclei forming a heavier one. This is the same that occurs in the center of the any star like the sun. Fusion reaction can only happen at very high temperatures and pressures. In a nuclear weapon, these temperature and pressure levels are created by using a fission explosion (i.e. an atomic bomb) to trigger the fusion reaction.

Historical Overview: There has only been one recorded nuclear crisis in the history of mankind, a disaster that caused the destruction of a country:

Hiroshima And Nagasaki The U.S. became the first nation to use atomic weaponry during wartime when it dropped two atomic bombs ‗little boy‘ and ‗fat man‘ on Japan‘s two cities; Hiroshima and Nagasaki that marked the end of the World War II. Speaking about this incident, one must first address the incident of Pearl Harbor; some people consider one of the main reasons that the U.S. launched such brutal attack. On December 7, 1941 and in response to the economic sanctions and the trade embargo imposed on Japan. The Japanese air forces launched a surprise attack on the American naval base at Pearl Harbor, during this incident the Japanese managed to destroy 20 American vessels including eight enormous battleships and nearly 300 airplanes. Almost 2,500 Americans soldiers and sailors died in the attack and another 1,000 were wounded.356 After taking the office, President Truman was warned by the Japanese that any attempt to invade Japan will be punished viciously. Yet President Truman wanted to end the pain caused by the war. So On August 6, 1945 President Truman took one of the fate changing decisions when a B-29 heavy bomber, Enola Gay dropped the first bomb ‗‘little boy‘‘ by a parachute on the Japanese city of Hiroshima that exploded 2,000 feet above it. A blast is equivalent to the power of 15,000 tons of TNT (a kind of explosives) that destroyed and ruined five square miles of the city and immediately killed 80,000 people. Hiroshima‘s bomb wasn‘t enough to elicit Japanese surrender. So, three days later on August 9,1945 another B-29 bomb ‗‘fat man‘‘ was dropped over the city Nagasaki that destroyed 2.6 square miles of the city and killed nearly 40,000 more people. On August 15, 1945, Emperor Hirohito announced Japan‘s surrender in a radio broadcast357 356

‗‘ PEARL HARBOR‘‘ < http://www.history.com/topics/world-war-ii/pearl-harbor> ‗‘Pearl Harbor Facts‘‘ < http://www.historynet.com/pearl-harbor> 357 ‘BOMBING OF HIROSHIMA AND NAGASAKI‘‘ < http://www.history.com/topics/world-war-ii/bombing-ofhiroshima-and-nagasaki>‖

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The Cuban Missile Crisis In October 1962, the world became closer than we could ever imagine to a nuclear war, a war so devastating that it could have destroyed the civilized world. On 16th of October 1962, President Kennedy was shown footage of ballistic missiles belonging to the Soviet Union being installed in Cuba; these missiles had the ability to carry nuclear heads. Kennedy ordered a naval blockade to be placed around the site where the missiles exist to prevent any other military supplies from reaching it. 358

But the world did not know how the Russians will respond, although a lot of people expected a strike on this blockade which could later lead to the nuclear dawn. Yet after 13 days of intensive negotiations between the US and Russian officials, a deal has been reached. This deal stated the following: 1) The Russians would remove their missiles from Cuba. 2) The US wouldn‘t launch any attack on Cuba. 3) It was revealed 25 years later, that JFK had secretly agreed to remove the US missiles from Turkey. 359 After this crisis, a new term became familiar to the world even though it existed before 1962. This term was ―Mutually Assured Destruction‖ referred to as ―MAD‖ which means that the nuclear stockpiles of a country can be so strong that it will survive a first nuclear attack by its enemy and capable to respond using its nuclear powers. This concept was the core behind ―Nuclear deterrence‖ defense strategy –A defense strategy that involves the announcement of a nuclear stockpile of a country to be able to deter another country‘s nuclear strike- because if a country knew that launching a nuclear strike on the other country, The country be reluctant to attack due to its fear that it‘d be later destroyed.360 After the world saw the catastrophic consequence of ―Hiroshima and Nagasaki‖ and how close the world came to an end during ―The Cuban Missile Crisis‖. It was clear that the world needed to know more to ensure its safety, each nuclear country had to state its policy towards the usage of nuclear weapons. China was the first to take this path in 1964 when it announced its ―Doctrine towards Nuclear Weapons‖.

Doctrines of Nuclear Weapons The No-first Use policy: Proposed and adopted by China after its first successful nuclear test in 1964, the No-First Use policy refers to the doctrine of never being the first party to use the nuclear weapon against the enemy unless another country used its nuclear weapons arsenal against China. In 1964, the Chinese government stated that ―China would not be the first to use nuclear weapons at any time or under any 358

http://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/Cuban-Missile-Crisis.aspx http://www.history.com/topics/cold-war/cuban-missile-crisis 360 http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-17026538 359

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circumstances.‖ Since the grip of the cold war up till now, The Chinese government has reaffirmed on various occasions China‘s continuous adoption to their established doctrine which from their point of view can pave the path for nuclear disarmament and would block any intent of a nuclear attack against China under any claims as well as a stabilized deterrence and sustained national security instead of getting captured by the international nuclear arms race preempted by the superpowers. Along with China, comes India to adopt the No-First Use policy in 2003 after the 1998‘s tests stating that India would attack nuclear ―for retaliation only‖. However, India‘s nuclear doctrines are based on the ―minimum credible deterrence‖ principle which confirms their No-First use policy, with a second strike capability. 361 The Usage of Nuclear weapons only defensively: Rejecting the No-First Use doctrine, The United states along with Russia, The UK, France and Pakistan pledge to use the nuclear weapons for defense purposes only, saying that they would use nuclear weapons against either a nuclear or non-nuclear state in cases of invasions or conflicts. The United States said that the No-First Use denies itself to use its legitimate right to defend its vital interests. The U.S nuclear doctrine has been revised in the April 2010 Nuclear Posture Review stating that: “The fundamental role of U.S. nuclear weapons, which will continue as long as nuclear weapons exist, is to deter nuclear attack on the United States, our allies, and partners.” “The United States would only consider the use of nuclear weapons in extreme circumstances to defend the vital interests of the United States or its allies and partners.”

The Non Proliferation Treaty It is an international treaty that aims to inhibit the spread of nuclear weapons and acting as the cornerstone of all international nuclear disarmament efforts for over forty years. Opened for signature on July 1 , 1968 -with Finland , the first state to sign- and came into force in 1970 , the ―NPT‖ has the widest multilateral adherence of any arms control agreements , extended indefinitely in 1995 with 190 countries joining the treaty including the five nuclear-weapon states .362 This legally-binding Treaty is interpreted as being based upon three essential pillars: • Non-proliferation: Restricting further spread of nuclear weapons and its technologies, or the expansion of existing arsenals. • Disarmament: Achieving the goal of complete nuclear disarmament.

361 362

http://thediplomat.com/2011/04/chinas-smart-nuclear-policy/ http://fas.org/nuke/control/npt/

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• Nuclear energy: recognizing the right for each country to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes and promoting international collaborations.363 The NPT also obligates the five recognized nuclear states (US , UK , France , Russian Federation and China) not to transfer nuclear weapons, other nuclear explosive devices, or their technology to any non-nuclear-weapon state and engage in good faith negotiations with the aim of halting competitions in nuclear arms race according to Article I of the treaty . Each non-nuclear state should never receive the transfer from any transferor whatsoever of nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices or of control over such weapons or explosive devices directly, or indirectly or seek to receive any assistance in the manufacture of nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices and accepting the IAEA safeguards to verify according to periodic inspections that they are not converting nuclear energy from peaceful uses to nuclear weapons , according to Article II and Article III of the treaty . 364 Even though 190 countries have put their official signature on the treaty, 5 countries are rejecting the treaty each for its own reasons. These countries are ―Iran, Israel, India, Pakistan and South Sudan‖ and one country has announced its official withdrawal from the treaty in 2003, this country is North Korea. The Islamic Republic of Iran Iran which once was one of the biggest allies of the United States during the Shah‘s Era has shifted its policy entirely towards the west following the Islamic Revolution. After Ayatollah was chosen as a supreme leader of Iran, Iran began to regard the west as enemy and The US as the ―Great Satan‖. This caused Iran to denounce all the treaties approved by the west and among them was the NPT Iran is one of the non-signatories of the NPT, as the Iranian system has been trying to develop a nuclear weapon following the Death of Ayatollah El Khomeini, who was against the development of any WMD. He even issued a fatwa against the development and usage of such weapons as they are considered to be inhumane. After his death; the Iranian nuclear program has developed significantly. History of the Iranian Nuclear Program365 Following Ayatollah el Khomeini and the appointment of Ali Khamenei as the supreme leader of Iran; their policy towards nuclear weapons changed, after it was deemed unacceptable and against Islam by El Khomeini. The pioneer behind the development of a nuclear weapon program in Iran was Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani –who was the leader of the Iranian army during the Gulf War- he tried to develop weapons of mass destruction to counter the chemical weapons used by Saddam, but El Khomeini rejected.

363

http://www.basicint.org/sites/default/files/nptfactsheetapr2014basicfinal.pdf http://www.un.org/en/conf/npt/2005/npttreaty.html 365 http://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/irans-nuclear-program 364

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But in 1989, Rafsanjani was elected as a president for Iran and it wasn‘t long until he began to set the foundations for a nuclear program because he believed that a nuclear weapon would put Iran on the map of the global powers and it would allow Iran to achieve ultimate power in the Middle East. During his era, Iran made sustainable effort to achieve advancements in Uranium mining as it is considered the core of the nuclear operation. Rafsanjani wanted also to protect his country‘s economy from the sanctions to be enforced by the United Nations, so he signed a deal with China, as China would be able to benefit Iran and safeguard the Iranians from sanctions using its veto power. In 1990, Iran secretly purchased one metric ton of uranium hexafluoride which is used in the manufacture of gas centrifuges-to enrich the uranium; developing a nuclear weapon- and didn‘t report that purchase to the agency. In 1995, Russia and Iran started cooperating in the nuclear field as Russia reconstructed the nuclear reactor of Busher and started working in 2010. After Rafsanjani ended his two terms in office, Khatami -who was more moderate towards the nuclear dream of Iran and whose main objective was to fix relations with the west- became president. However, Khatami pursued the nuclear dream on a slower rate, he even disclosed the locations of some nuclear facilities during a press conference in D.C. after it was discovered that Iran secretly produced gas centrifuges through the Uranium hexafluoride purchased from China. Following the announcement, extra pressure was put over the Iranian government and in 2003, EU3 (Germany, France and England) persuaded Iran to sign an agreement to stop all its uranium enrichment activities and implement the NPT( non-proliferation of nuclear weapons) additional protocol which broadened the information reported to the IAEA. This agreement was later extended for another year which proves that Khatami‘s main objective was to fix the relations with the west. After finishing his two terms as president, Khatami left the office and all the advancements he made regarding fixing the Iranian interests with the west became a past following the election of Mahmoud Ahmadi Nejad as president in 2005, Ahmadi Nejad‘s main objective was reviving the Nuclear Dream, Nejad believed that the policy followed by Khatami destroyed more than what it built. The agreement between Iran and the EU3 came to an end and Iran started following the nuclear dream again. After the 3 years suspension of nuclear activities, Iran returned to produce gas centrifuges and enrich Uranium; it also stopped adhering to the IAEA additional protocol. In 2009, The U.S. and the EU3 revealed an existent secret uranium enrichment facility and they claimed that Iran will use this facility to produce the nuclear bomb. Iran persisted in operating its nuclear activities defying all the world powers. In 2010, Iran began enriching its 3.5 percent uranium to 20 percent at the Natanz pilot plant, purportedly for use in fueling the Tehran Research Reactor. Suspicion arose that this is just a step to enrich further to 90% which would be enough to use the uranium in war purposes. The U.S.

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suggested that Iran will send away all its 3.5% uranium out of the country and that the U.S. will provide it with the 20% enriched fuel. Some experts believed that Iran would be able to produce a nuclear bomb within a year. Iran has produced approximately 2,400 kg of 3.5 percent low enriched uranium (LEU) as of May 2010, and 17 kg of 19.75 percent uranium as of June 2010 at Natanz. Iran continues to refine its ability to efficiently produce 19.75 percent enriched uranium and to expand its centrifuge efficiency, as well as the numbers in operation. Ahmadinejad resisted all the pressure imposed on him and he continued pursuing the Iranian nuclear dream despite the expansion of the sanctions which set the Iranian economy back. But in 2013, the two terms of Ahmadinejad came to an end and with Hassan Rouhani being elected as a president, a new chapter was opened in ―The Iranian nuclear program‖, even though this chapter was not as nuclearized as Ahmadinejad‘s chapter.

The Iranian Nuclear Deal Rouhani signed the nuclear deal with the major powers in the Vienna agreement that may be able to postpone the nuclear dream. Some regard the deal as vital for the survival of the Iranian economy while others see it as a victory for the major powers over Iran. The deal signed in Vienna included many points among them: 1) Iran will sacrifice 2/3 of its centrifuges, 6000 gas centrifuges will placed under the monitor of IAEA which will limit Iran‘s capabilities to manufacture the atomic bomb. 2)

Iran will only keep 300 kilograms out of 8 million kilograms of export low enriched Uranium.

Iran will be allowed to keep its stockpile of enriched Uranium at only 3.67%

Iran‘s heavy water plant at Arak will be redesigned

Iran will be forced to implement the additional protocol of the IAEA.

6) Iran.

All this will be in exchange for lifting all the economic sanctions related to the nuclear file of

The lifting of the sanctions will allow over 65 billion Euros to flow into the Iranian economy.

Iran will have the right to research for its nuclear file but only for peaceful purposes.

This can be considered as a step back for the nuclear dream of Iran but it was required as the Iranian economy was going to a deep recession which would have resulted in huge political uprisings that the Iranian system can‘t endure.366

366

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/11739214/A-summary-of-the-Iran-nuclear-deal.html

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Even though the United States and the major European countries believe that this deal is a victory to diplomacy and that the only alternative for the deal was war at huge scale, although some experts argue that this can be dismissed for 3 reasons: 1)

The sanctions could have been tightened and that would have greatly affected the Iranian funding power and it would be standing as an obstacle for Iran to continue its nuclear projects. The allowing of funds to flow in Iran will increase the funds provided to Hezbollah and Bashar El Assadâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s regime in Syria.

2) The deal gives Iran time to rebuild its economy and come back stronger. And in this case, Iran will pose an even bigger threat on the United States. 3) Iran has been in war with the US for many years now and whoever thinks that this agreement will make the US and Iran allies is living in a world of his own.367

North Korea North Korea one of the biggest threats to the United States with its huge arsenal of Nuclear Weapons, North Korea and the U.S. have been enemies since the United States participated in the division of Korea into North and South. And with the growing nuclear weapon arsenal of North Korea, it is now deemed as a bigger threat to the national security of the United States. Russians decided to spread the communist ideology in North Korea. Fear was present in North of Korea but on the other hand, Economic development and Industrialization were present. 368 The North Korean nuclear program In early 1950s, North Korea began working on training personnel for its nuclear program. In December 1952, North Korea's government established the Atomic Energy Research Institute, and nuclear work began to progress when it established cooperative agreements with the Soviet Union.369 Pyongyang (capital of North Korea) signed the charter of Russia's Joint Institute for Nuclear Research in February 1956, and it began to send technicians and scientists to the USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics) for training. In 1959, North Korea and the Soviet Union signed an agreement for the peaceful use of nuclear energy that included an arrangement for Soviet help to establish the first nuclear research complex in Yongbyon, North Pynagan Province.370 In the early 1960s, North Korean leader at that time Kim II Sung took control of the nuclear program and took and decisions associated with its weapons development. Though bolstered by early assistance from the Soviet Union, and Beijing to some extent, North Korea's nuclear program developed widely without significant foreign assistance. Reportedly, Kim II sung asked Beijing to 367

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u4FkNbtkgps Background Notes http://www.state.gov/www/background_notes/n-korea_0010_bgn.html 369 North Korea Introduction 2009 (Seoul: Korea Institute for National Unification, 2009) p.322 https://books.google.com.eg/books?id=1PyEBgAAQBAJ 370 Focus on Nuclear Technology/ The North Produces Most Electricity Themselves 21 June 1994, p. 5. 368

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reveal its nuclear weapons technology in October 1964, following China's first nuclear test, but Chinese leader refused.371 Shortly after the test, North Korean relations with China began to disintegrate. By the early 1970s, North Korean engineers were using primitive technology to expand a research reactor facility called IRT-2000, and North Korea began to acquire plutonium processing technology from the Soviet Union. 372 The 1980s was a period of significant expansion to North Korea, when it constructed uranium milling facilities, a nuclear reactor and fuel rod fabrication complex as well as research and development institutions. Then by the mid-1980s, North Korea began experimenting with high explosives; the triggering mechanism of a nuclear bomb. But in 1985, North Korea decided to sign the NPT and become a non-nuclear state, as a response, President George H.W Bush removed all the U.S. nuclear weapons from South Korea in 1991. Then on 18 December 1991, South Korean President Roh Tae Woo announced that South Korea was free of nuclear weapons. Afterwards, Both North and South Korea signed the Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula which stated that both sides promised they will "manufacture, produce, not test, receive, possess, store, deploy or use nuclear weapons." The agreement also provided inspections deal, but both failed to agree on its implementation.373 The Withdrawal The international community became concerned that North Korea might have an enriched uranium (HEU) program. Summer 2002, U.S. intelligence reportedly discovered evidence of transfers of HEU technology from Pakistan to North Korea in exchange for ballistic missiles technology. During a visit in October 2002 from the United States, North Korean officials admitted to having such programs to produce HEU. Later on, North Korea argued that it was their right to have a "plan to produce nuclear weapons", as a self-defense strategy in the future.374 In December 2002, United States responded by suspending heavy oil shipments, and North Korea reciprocated by lifting the freeze on its nuclear facilities, expelling IAEA inspectors who were monitoring that freeze, and then announcing its withdrawal from the NPT on 10 January 2003. North Korea claimed that lifting the freeze was necessary to be able to generate needed electricity, and that it had no intention in producing nuclear weapons.375

371

"Exposing North Korea's Secret Nuclear Infrastructureâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;Part One," Jane's Intelligence Review, July 1999. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/1999_07-08/bbja99 372 North Korean Nuclear Issues and the LWR Project Vol.1 by Technology Center for Nuclear Control, November 1999, https://books.google.com.eg/books?isbn=1433027801 373 "Joint Declaration of South and North Korea on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," Inventory of International Nonproliferation Organizations and Regimes, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, http://www.nti.org/ 374 "U.S.-East Asia Policy: Three Aspects," Remarks at the Woodrow Wilson Center, Washington, DC, 11 December 2002 http://2001-2009.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2002/15875.htm 375 http://www.kcna.co.jp/item/2003/200301/news01/11.htm

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North Korea conducted its first nuclear weapon test in 2006; the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) announced that the test was "a great leap forward in the building of a great prosperous powerful socialist nation." 376 Following the test, United Nations Security Council (UNSC) imposed sanctions on North Korea, further diplomatic activities by the Chinese government and other in a Six-Party process took place. After all, in what appeared to be a breakthrough, the six parties agreed in February 2007 on the Initial Action for the Implementation of the Joint Statement, which stated that North Korea agreed to abandon all of its nuclear weapons and nuclear programs, and then to return to the NPT, in exchange for a provision of energy assistance to North Korea by other parties. 377 After the agreement, North Korea invited the IAEA officials to reestablish its relation with the Agency. Further progress was made with the Six-Party negotiations when they adopted the Second Action Plan, calling North Korea to disable its main nuclear facilities and submit a complete declaration of all its nuclear programs by 31 December 2007. 378 With North Koreaâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s failure to meet the deadline to submit its declaration, controversies suspected North Korean nuclear cooperation with Syria proved to be key sticking point. On June 26th 2008, North Korea submitted its declaration after the deadline, but that raised the suspicions of its nuclear cooperation with other countries such as Syria.379 On 11 October 2008, the United States dropped North Korea from the terrorism list after reaching a deal in which North Korea agreed to continue disabling its nuclear facilities, and to allow IAEA inspectors access to the nuclear sites. North Korea kicked out IAEA and U.S. inspectors after a dispute over rocket launches in March 2009, and began to rebuild a nuclear reactor for the purpose of reprocessing plutonium. On 25 May 2009, North Korea conducted its second nuclear test. The United Nations Security Council then released a Resolution; Pyongyang then announced that "the processing of uranium enrichment will be commenced." North Korea then indicated no intention to return to the Six-Party Talks, and asserted that it would not be bound by any agreements made earlier through this forum.380 The death of Kim Jong II in December 2011 left much of the world speculating about its impact on North Korea's nuclear program and the Six-Party Talks. After a series of bilateral talks with the U.S., North Korea announced a moratorium on nuclear testing, uranium enrichment and long-range missile tests on 29 February 2012 in exchange for food aid. However, the U.S. withdrew its offer of food aid, after North Korea attempted to launch a satellite into orbit

376

"DPRK Successfully Conducts Underground Nuclear Test," KCNA, 10 October 2006, www.kcna.co.jp. Audra Ang, "North Korea Agrees to Nuclear Disarmament," Associated Press, 13 February 2005. 378 "Deadline For Disabling N.K. Nukes Set At Year-End," Korea Herald, 4 October 2007. 379 "U.S. Ready to Ease Sanctions on N. Korea; Pyongyang Would Have to Acknowledge Evidence About Nuclear Activities," Washington Post, 11 April 2008. 380 "North Korea To Push Ahead With Uranium Enrichment," Asia Pulse, 15 June 2009. 377

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North Korea conducted the third nuclear test at a Nuclear Test Facility. North Korea claimed to have successfully tested a "lighter, miniaturized atomic bomb." 381 On March 2014 KCNA announcement stated that North Korea has intended to conduct a "New Form" of nuclear testing, many speculated when and where North Korea may conduct another nuclear test. Not to mention that the country may have tested a new HEU-type device.

India India is considered a key factor in the survival of the international non-proliferation regime. However , India‘s role in strengthening non-proliferation is viewed as minimal since India‘s still not party to the treaty . India‘s stance on the NPT is based on the argument that the treaty represents the discrimination of the international system granting the right of possessing nuclear weapons to only five countries and denying the same right to the rest , describing the treaty as unethical , flawed and lacking the moral and even the legal basis . India argues that the UN has failed to establish nuclear disarmament policy and achieve very limited progress towards non-proliferation with five authorized countries having over 22,000 warheads in their combined stockpiles showing reluctance to further disarmament. India exploded its first nuclear device in 1974 and is estimated to have between 90-110 warheads with full nuclear fuel cycle capabilities. India‘s nuclear program is considered by the government as a necessary deterrent for India‘s regional and border security that faces disputes with one of the five nuclear states; China and the nuclear armed Pakistan.382 According to the Indian administration, joining the NPT is not one of India‘s priorities, taking into consideration India‘s adoption to the No-First Use doctrine since its initiation in 1964, abiding to all terms of not passing nuclear weapons to any non-nuclear state, accepting the IAEA safeguards, India sees that the only option that serves the NPT and Indian interests is maintaining the status quo. India has an enormous and growing nuclear arsenal, sufficient in reactor design and construction. The self-sufficiency engendered extends from Uranium exploration and mining through fuel fabrication, heavy water production, reactor design and construction, to reprocessing used fuel and waste management. It has a small fast breeder reactor and is commissioning a much larger one. It is also developing technology to utilize its abundant resources of Thorium as a nuclear fuel.383 The US-India nuclear Agreement: In July 18 , 2005 , President Bush and the Indian Prime minister , Manmohan singh released the USIndia nuclear agreement that was finalized and approved by U.S. congress in 2008 . The details of the deal include the following: 381

David E. Sanger and Choe Sang-hun, "North Korea Confirms It Conducted 3rd Nuclear Test," New York Times, 12 February 2013 http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/12/world/asia/north-korea-nuclear-test.html 382 http://www.indiatomorrow.net/eng/nuclear-non-proliferation-treaty-and-india 383 http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/india/nuclear/

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

India agrees to allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA), the United Nations' nuclear watchdog group, access to its civilian nuclear program. By March 2006, India promised to place fourteen of its twenty-two power reactors under IAEA safeguards permanently. India has promised that all future civilian thermal and breeder reactors shall be placed under IAEA safeguards permanently. However, the Indian prime minister says New Delhi "retains the sole right to determine such reactors as civilian." According to him: "This means that India will not be constrained in any way in building future nuclear facilities, whether civilian or military, as per our national requirements."



India commits to signing an Additional Protocol -which allows more intrusive IAEA inspections-of its civilian facilities.



India agrees to continue its moratorium on nuclear weapons testing.



India commits to strengthening the security of its nuclear arsenals.



India works toward negotiating a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT) with the United States banning the production of fissile material for weapons purposes and support international nonproliferation efforts.



U.S. companies will be allowed to build nuclear reactors in India and provide nuclear fuel for its civilian energy program. (An approval by the Nuclear Suppliers Group lifting the ban on India has also cleared the way for other countries to make nuclear fuel and technology sales to India.)384

Pakistan The Pakistani adopt the same view as that of India concerning the NPT, describing the NPT as a discriminatory treaty that denies Pakistan its legitimate right to defend itself. Also, India‘s decision not to sign the treaty is the main driving force for the Pakistani refusal to the treaty as Pakistan considers the Indian fissile programs as a direct threat to Pakistan‘s national security and finds the Pakistani nuclear, peaceful program as a kind of checks and balances. However, Pakistan assured the international community that they are not in arms race with anyone and that they seek minimum deterrence. The Pakistani foreign secretary Aizaz Chaudhry in his last meeting with U.S. security and non-proliferation officials in June 2015 pointed out that Pakistan has the right to access to the civil nuclear cooperation arrangement that the United States had with India saying that Pakistan energy needs are more acute. The power generation met international standards and all facilities are under IAEA safeguards. Pakistan has currently a growing nuclear arsenal, described by world‘s experts as ―the world‘s fastestgrowing nuclear stockpile.‖ Pakistan possesses 100-120 nuclear weapons. However, the International Panel on Fissile Materials concluded in 2013 that Pakistan possesses fissile material sufficient for over 200 weapons. Islamabad has stockpiled approximately 3.0 ± 1.2 tons of highly enriched uranium 384

http://www.cfr.org/india/us-india-nuclear-deal/p9663

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(HEU), and produces enough HEU for perhaps 10 to 15 warheads per year. Pakistan currently has a stockpile of 150 ± 50 kg of weapons-grade plutonium, with the ability to produce approximately 12 to 24 kg per year. Three Plutonium stocks are expected to increase continuously as Pakistan brings more production reactors online at its Khushab facility. The Khan Research Laboratories greatly increased its HEU production capacity by employing more efficient P-3 and P-4 gas centrifuges.

Israel Nowadays Israel is believed to have the sixth largest nuclear weapons arsenal and allegedly having built its first nuclear weapons since December 1966. Israel maintain policy known as ‗‘nuclear ambiguity‘‘ as It has never admitted to having nuclear weapons Even though it is assumed that Israel has a nuclear weapons arsenal of 75 or more warheads. It has been consistently refusing to sign the NPT, believing that signing the treaty would make the National Security of Israel vulnerable In 1950, France launched Israel on the nuclear path and with the French support secretly it began building a nuclear reactor and a reprocessing plant in Dimona and it is still the source of Israeli platinum and the main nuclear weapon fuel; this reactor‘s heavy water is essential to achieve a chain reaction and when the reactor started operation, the U.S. supplied four more tons of heavy water. In 1958, The U.S. knew of the existence of the Dimona facility and it was discovered in 1960 that it was in fact a nuclear facility. Despite the U.S. knowledge of the existence of a nuclear facility in Israel, it didn‘t interfere. In 1968, the CIA issued a report concluding that Israel had successfully started the production of the nuclear weapons and in 1974, it was estimated that it owns between ten to twenty nuclear weapons, also Israel have produced a few dozen of nuclear warhead, the progress didn‘t stop because it was believed in the 1990‘s that Israel might have possessed from 100 to 200 warheads. In 2008, President Jimmy Carter estimated that Israel had probably a minimum of 150 weapons in stock and it is ready to use them if the direst circumstances warrant. In 2014, the former president revised that estimated that Israel doubled its arsenal in 6 years; from 2008 to 2014.385

South Sudan The new republic of South Sudan has only been an independent state recognized by the UN in 2011 has no nuclear program, yet it did not sign the NPT. 386

Nuclear Preparedness Nuclear Preparedness is defined as a continuous cycle of training, organizing, equipping and taking effective actions with efforts to ensure effective coordination during incident response, this cycle is 385 386

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/welcome-israeli-nuclear-weapons-101-13882 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-14069082

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considered one element of national preparedness system to respond to and prevent any disaster, attack or strike.387 Nuclear Security: Nuclear terrorism is described to be an extreme threat to global security, any radiological or nuclear attacks on the U.S would cause in dire and profound consequences for the country. DHS nuclear detection and forensic missions are considered the key elements of the U.S. government‘s wide ranging approach to prevent any attack, also DHS coordinates the U.S. government interagency efforts to develop the global nuclear detection architecture [GNDA], it is a framework of detecting through technical an non-technical means and analyzing nuclear and radioactive materials that are out of regulatory control. The programs supporting the global nuclear detection architecture create a multi-layered defensive network to detect interdiction of radiological and nuclear material out of regulatory control. Nuclear Security in the U.S. is based on three main pillars: Improving detection: DHS has also improved the detection technologies and increased the number of law enforcement personnel trained in detection-related equipment. Radiation portal monitors: DHS has worked with U.S. customs and borders protection [CBP] to deploy radiation detection technologies and apply the radiation portal monitor to the land border ports, sea ports as well as the mail facilities around the world. Securing cities: DHS initiated plans to expand Securing the Cities [STC] to enhance the ability to detect any radiological and nuclear attack in highest risk cities, to include additional urban areas while continuing to support efforts in existing STC region. For instance, through Securing the Cities [STC] approximately 19,450 people have been trained in New York City region in preventive radiological and nuclear detection operations, also more than 8,800 pieces of radiological detection equipment have been funded. This program expanded in Los Angeles/Long Beach in 2012 and to the national capital region in 2014.388 The domestic nuclear detection office (DNDO) also has another role in supporting the development of national and international consensus standards for radiological and nuclear detection systems; it also maintains technical capability standards for radiation detection that supplements industry standards by establishing radiation and nuclear detection goals unique to the government.389

387

‗‘ Plan and Prepare for Disasters‘‘. <http://www.dhs.gov/topic/plan-and-prepare-disasters> Nuclear Security‘‘ <http://www.dhs.gov/topic/nuclear-security> 389 ‗‘Supporting Radiological and Nuclear Detection Standards‘‘. <http://www.dhs.gov/supporting-radiological-andnuclear-detection-standards> 388

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National Nuclear Security Administration Established by The Congress in 2000, which is responsible for maintaining and enhancing Nuclear Security of the United States through military application of Nuclear Science. The NNSA has variety of missions to ensure the safety of the United States: 

 

Maintaining the stockpile through securing a safe, secure and effective deterrent through application of nuclear technology and improving this technology in order to enhance the security of the USA. Non-proliferation through cooperation with different countries to prevent terrorists from acquiring any nuclear material or any WMD. Emergency response which is considered as a last line of defense in case of a nuclear disaster. The office of Emergency operations implements its various programs to protect and serve the maximum number of lives.390

Programs of the NNSA Defense Programs The NNSA and Department of Defense aim to develop and secure transportation of the U.S. nuclear stockpile. Although the United States do not perform any nuclear experiments but the NNSA is responsible for doing simulations using super computers to ensure the reliability of the nuclear stockpile of the United States. In 2010, President Obama signed The START treaty with his Russian counterpart Putin. This treaty puts a max of 1550 warheads to both the United States and Russia. The NNSA is responsible for removing and dismantling the excess warheads.391 Counterterrorism and Counter proliferation An objective which is regarded as the top priority for U.S. government, as President Obama has once stated in April 6, 2010, ―For the first time, preventing nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism is now at the top of America‘s nuclear agenda, which affirms the central importance of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.‖ The mission of the agency is to advance its effort through science, technology and policy driven solutions. The Office is also concerned with any nuclear device that might have fallen in the hands of a terrorist group. The Agency implements number of programs to help achieve its goal which include: international nuclear security and counter terrorism dialogues which aim to detect and defeat nuclear security devices and promoting nuclear security policies.392

390

http://nnsa.energy.gov/aboutus http://nnsa.energy.gov/aboutus/ourprograms/defenseprograms 392 http://nnsa.energy.gov/aboutus/ourprograms/ctcp 391

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Emergency Response NNSA‘s office of Emergency response is United States‘ main responder against any nuclear threat. The office is always ready to protect the U.S. and its allies and it can serve as a last line of defense against any nuclear threat. The office focuses on the following:   

Radiological Research: identify radiological material Render Safe: making sure a nuclear device is safe if a device was found Consequence management: to measure the spread of any nuclear disaster if it occurred.

The NNSA office deploys teams about 100 times a year within the US and it‘s mainly for radiological research. These deployments occur within the main events of the year as: Super bowl or President‘s inauguration. The NNSA also provides training to energy responders in case there‘s a nuclear disaster to be able to deal with the situation efficiently393

393

http://nnsa.energy.gov/aboutus/ourprograms/emergencyoperationscounterterrorism

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Second Topic: Domestic Terrorism I.

Definition.......................................................................................... 172

II.

Hate Crimes ..................................................................................... 172 a. FBI Prosecution of Hate Crimes .............................................

III.

Foreign Terrorism Vs. Domestic Terrorism ................................ 177

IV.

Refugees and Domestic Terrorism ................................................ 178

States Sponsors of Terrorism......................................................... 179 a. Iran b. Sudan c. Syria

VI.

Lone Wolf Terrorism ...................................................................... 180 a. Types of Lone Wolf Terrorists ............................................... b. Countering Lone Wolf Terrorists ...........................................

VII.

Recruitment of Terrorists .............................................................. 183 a. Phases of Recruiting Terrorists ..............................................

VIII.

Terrorist Organizations & Home grown Violent Extremists ..... 184 a. Klu Klux Klan ....................................................................... b. Anti-Abortion Extremism: Army of God ...............................

IX.

Aircraft Hijacking ........................................................................... 187 a. Aviation Security ....................................................................

Patriot Act ........................................................................................ 190

XI.

Domestic Terrorism Task Force .................................................... 195

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Domestic Terrorism Definition Domestic Terrorism is an act that involves using violence against the citizens or the infrastructure of a nation, with the intent to intimidate or influence national government policies. It is usually conducted by the citizens of the country.394 The violator of domestic terror threats could be ranged from radical separatist groups, white supremacists, and eco-terrorists to lone wolf terrorists and animal rights extremists. The United States categorized domestic terrorists based on what they were inspired from, and they can be inspired broadly regarding: 

Religious beliefs



Racial bigotry and supremacist objectives



Anti-government objectives



Sole, unique interests395

Hate Crimes According to the FBI definition, a hate crime is ―criminal offense against a person or property motivated in whole or in part by an offender‘s bias against a race, religion, disability, sexual orientation, ethnicity, gender, or gender identity‖. Hate crime can be thought of as a ―close cousin‖ to domestic terrorism and the two behaviors may be correlated and share common decisive factors. Although these criminal behaviors – hate crime and terrorism – have some general similarities, such as their shared purposes of expressing aggression and spreading terrorism among a larger group rather than victimize a single individual, a huge legal and social debate still being held on whether the attack should be inclusive of a political motive , affiliation or ideology to suppress the citizenry or influence the public body , accompanied by the use of a weapon of mass destruction or belonging to a certain terrorist organization to be reported as domestic terrorism. Does replacing a bomb by gun makes the act different from a terrorist attack even if it constitutes all the criteria that make it defined as an act of terror?396 A question is posed to determine, to what extent are hate crimes also counted as terrorism events? To what extent does the perpetration of hate crimes foreshadow future domestic terrorist attacks? And does the perpetration of terrorist attacks portend future hate crimes? While there are a lot of 394

Definitions of Terrorism in the U.S. Code https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/investigate/terrorism/terrorism-definition 395 Domestic Terrorism: Definition http://study.com/academy/lesson/domestic-terrorism-definition-history-types-examples.html 396 https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/investigate/civilrights/hate_crimes/overview

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similarities between hate crimes and acts of domestic terrorism, the distinction plotted in that terrorist attacks are planned acts that are initiated to draw attention to some cause, rather than inflict harm or suffering on a particular identity group. Hate crimes have a much broader impact within communities than many other types of violent crimes or property crimes since they are motivated by bias, hate crimes often intend to send a broader message of violent intolerance towards a certain class of persons. Like terrorist incidents, the â&#x20AC;&#x2022;messageâ&#x20AC;&#x2013; aspect of the offenderâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s motive can be seriously threatening to people far from the actual crime scene. The fact that the victims of such crimes are selected based on their race, religion or sexual orientation can cause all those in the community who share that characteristic to experience similar feelings of vulnerability and secondary victimization. The message of intolerance that is communicated through a hate crime can have broadly disruptive social effects as well, and can lead to greater distrust of law enforcement or friction between racial or religious communities.397

397

https://www.justice.gov/usao/priority-areas/civil-rights/hate-crimes

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FBI prosecution of hate crimes: Civil Rights Act 1964 The Civil Rights Act of 1964 permits federal prosecution of anyone who "willingly injures, intimidates or interferes with another person, or attempts to do so, by force because of the other person's race, color, and religion or national origin.‖ In an attempt to end racial segregation and ban unfair discriminative basis, any person that would violate this law, faces a fine or imprisonment that could reach one year or both punishments. If bodily injury results or if such acts of intimidation involve the use of firearms, explosives or fire, individuals can receive up to a ten years sentence while crimes involving kidnapping, sexual assault, or murder can be punishable by life in prison or death penalty.398 Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act 1994 The Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act , requires the United States Sentencing Commission to enhance the penalties for hate crimes committed on basis of actual or perceived race, color, religion, national origin, ethnicity, or gender basis of any person. In 1995, the Sentencing Commission implemented these guidelines, which only apply to federal crimes.399 Matthew Shepard and James Byrd, Jr. Hate Crimes Prevention Act 2009 On October 28, 2009 President Obama signed the Matthew Shepard and James Byrd, Jr. Hate Crimes Prevention Act, which was named after Matthew Shepard, gay student from Wyoming that has been tortured till death and James Byrd, an African-American murdered by two white supremacists in Texas 1998. The act expanded the United States federal hate crime law to apply to crimes motivated by a victim's actual or perceived gender, sexual orientation, gender identity, or disability, and dropped the imperative that the victim should engage in a federally protected activity. 400 According to the FBI latest hate crime statistics report in 2014, 5,928 hate crime incidents involving 6,933 offenses were reported to the Bureau‘s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program in 2013. These hate crime incidents impacted a total of 7,242 victims—which are defined as individuals, businesses, institutions, or society as a whole. Among the report‘s findings for 2013: 

Of the 5,928 incidents reported, six were multiple-bias hate crime incidents involving 12 victims.



Of the 5,922 single bias incidents reported, the top three bias categories were race (48.5 percent), sexual orientation (20.8 percent), and religion (17.4 percent).

398

http://www.history.com/topics/black-history/civil-rights-act https://www.congress.gov/bill/103rd-congress/house-bill/3355/text 400 http://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/content/hate-crime-act.html 399

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

Of the reported 3,407 single-bias hate crime offenses that were racially motivated, 66.4 were motivated by anti-black or African-American bias, and 21.4 percent stemmed from anti-white bias.



60.6 percent of the reported 1,402 hate crime offenses based on sexual orientation were classified as anti-gay (male) bias.



Law enforcement agencies identified 5,814 known offenders in the 5,928 bias-motivated incidents. Of these offenders, 52.4 percent were white and 24.3 percent were black or AfricanAmerican.



Of the 6,933 hate crime offenses reported in 2013, 63.9 percent were crimes against persons (e.g., intimidation, assaults, rapes, murders), while 35 percent were property crimes (mostly acts of destruction/damage/vandalism). The rest were considered crimes against society (like drug offenses or prostitution).401



401

https://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2014/december/latest-hate-crime-statistics-report-released/

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Hate Crimes against African-Americans: On July 21, 2015, 21 years old Dylan Roof entered the Emanuel AME Church in Charleston, South Carolina during a bible study meeting to shoot nine people with a 45-caliber Glock pistol to death. Before the attack, Roof posted a rambling online manifesto explaining why he chose to target black people in Charleston; he said was the most historic city in his state that had the highest ratio of black to whites in the country. Roof wrote ―I have no choice," Roof wrote. "I am not in the position to – alone-, go into the ghetto and fight. I chose Charleston because it is most historic city in my state, and at one time had the highest ratio of blacks to Whites in the country. We have no skinheads, no real KKK, no one doing anything but talking on the internet. Well someone has to have the bravery to take it to the real world, and I guess that has to be me."402 Roof has been charged with nine counts of murder. The question there was whether Roof would be charged with a hate crime or the act could be qualified as an act of domestic terrorism. From the legal perspective, in that case it would make no difference because the term ―hate crime‖ is added by the prosecutor as a kind of enhancement to increase the severity of the punishment. Roof‘s crime can be qualified as an act of terror as he substantially meant to intimidate a whole community of African Americans in the United States and provoke a racial war, which consequently poses a threat to the whole society and influence the government policy in the whole area of race relations.403 Hate Crimes against Muslims: On the 10th of February 2015, Yusor Mohammad, 21, her 23-year-old husband, Deah Shaddy Barakat, and 19-year-old sister, Razan Mohammad Abu-Salha. All three were shot in the head by their 46-year-old neighbor Craig Hicks at their home in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Hicks was charged with a first-degree murder that would sentence him to death which makes it unnecessary to add the hate crime code to the case. 404 What makes a hate crime or an act of domestic terrorism difficult to prosecute is not only the fact that we should legally have the proof that the defendant has been driven by certain bias that motivated the crime or meant to deliver a message to certain community, it is the concern that categorizing a crime against humanity whether it was a hate crime or an act of terror limits the conversation on race, religious or ethnic discrimination and narrows our perspective on the national level. US former president Bill Clinton once said ―Hate crimes weaken the sense that we are one people with common values and a common future. They tear us apart when we should be moving closer together. They are acts of violence against America itself."

402

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/06/19/us/charleston-church-shooting-suspect/ http://kcur.org/post/what-difference-between-hate-crime-and-act-terrorism#stream/0 404 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kami-chavis-simmons/why-are-hate-crimes-so-di_b_6681200.html 403

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Foreign Terrorism vs. Domestic Terrorism: Since 2001, the ―war on terrorism‖ term is being politically and socially consumed to refer to countering the foreign terrorist threat and establishing a more chaotic countering terrorism policy in the United States. The FBI defines international terrorism as activities or acts that are dangerous to human life that violate federal or state law to appear to be intended to achieve three purposes:   

To intimidate or coerce a civilian population. To influence the policy of a government by intimidation or coercion To affect the conduct of a government by mass destruction, assassination, or kidnapping.

This usually occurs outside the territorial jurisdiction of the U.S, or transcends national boundaries in terms of the means by which they are accomplished, the persons they appear intended to intimidate or coerce, or the locale in which their perpetrators operate or seek asylum.405 According to statistics of the New America Foundation research Centre, 48 people have been killed in the last 14 years since 2001 by right-wing extremists, which is almost twice the number that was killed by of self-identified jihadists. The statistics reveal the ratio between victims of the right-wing extremist groups or supremacists in the US and victims of international terrorism from ―terrorist groups‖ like Al-Qaeda to be 74% to 39% , this ratio poses the question of why crimes committed by right-winged perpetrators or related to supremacist ideologies are not labeled as terrorist attack and being treated with as individual cases by some mentally disturbed criminals or lone-wolf that are not tied to any ideology or certain terrorist organization or extremist group. The Charleston attack was the turning point in this legal-political debate of what qualifies as domestic terrorism , with the number of anti-government groups and armed militias in the US skyrocketing from 149 in 2008 to 1,360 in 2012, by one count, during Obama‘s first term according to the Southern Poverty Law Center,406 which tracks such groups, Charleston is raising questions about whether the fear of Islamist terrorism is disproportionately overshadowing the need to address homegrown extremism. There are also currently 784 known hate groups, from neo-Nazi skinheads to black separatists. 407 What worsens the situation is the fact that some politicians and law-makers defend these perpetrators as American citizens that should not be treated the same as terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda or ISIS, subjecting them to surveillance and privacy breaching which is considered unconstitutional, while calling for more billions of dollars to be spent on surveillance over Al-Qaeda or ISIS affiliated, or over Arab countries refugees. The House majority leader, John Boehner commenting on the Colorado springs parenthood clinic attack by anti-abortion extremists, he blamed the Department of Homeland Security for abandoning using the term ―terrorists‖ to describe those, such as al Qaeda, who are plotting overseas to kill 405

https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/investigate/terrorism/terrorism-definition/ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/06/24/domestic-terrorism-charleston_n_7654720.html/ 407 http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Justice/2015/0624/Charleston-debate-Is-domestic-or-international-terrorism-thebigger-threat 406

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innocent Americans, while using the same term to describe American citizens who disagree with the direction Washington Democrats are taking the nation. Knowing that labeling such attacks that take place on the American soil by American citizens who belong to right-wing ideologies like the antiabortion or the white supremacists would provide more focus, information, investigation and understanding of the issue, still politicians are rhetoric about it, giving the right-wing a very large political stake in discounting this violence as just random violence, while actually there's nothing random about it. 408

Refugees and Domestic Terrorism: A refugee is a person who is outside his country who is unable or unwilling to return due to persecution or a well-founded fear of persecution on account of race, religion, nationality, membership in particular social group, or political opinions. An important technical distinction made over how a ―refugee‖ is defined — whether it‘s anyone who ultimately obtains refugee status, whether it includes children of refugees, or if it‘s limited to a person admitted through the resettlement program. The possibility of refugees being involved in domestic terrorism has been posed by law-makers and politicians to gain stricter vetting process for refugees arguing that the problem was mainly because of the ―infiltration‖, disregarding all dangers that were documented by clear statistics over homegrown terrorism threats posed by US-born citizens.409 In June 2015, director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the RAND Corporation that is merged to the US armed forces, Seth Jones, testified to US Congress that threats to the U.S. homeland from refugees had been relatively low that almost none of the major terrorist plots since 9/11 have involved refugees. Even in those cases where refugees were arrested on terrorism-related charges, years and even decades often transpired between their entry into the United States and their involvement in terrorism. In most instances, a would-be terrorist‘s refugee status had little or nothing to do with their radicalization and shift to terrorism. Adding that terrorist groups had multiple options to attack US homeland and that refugees had occasionally been involved in certain types of plots. Terrorist groups can infiltrate members through the refugee or asylum-seeker process into the United States to conduct attacks or recruit operatives from U.S. communities. Statistics reveal that the overwhelming majority of terrorist attacks are committed by US-born citizens. The New America Foundation data set showed that since 2001, only 10 refugees have been arrested on terrorism charges out of the 330 cases that were examined of which 80% had been US citizens.

408

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/06/24/domestic-terrorism-charleston_n_7654720.html/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2015/11/19/the-viral-claim-that-not-one-refugee-resettledsince-911-has-been-arrested-on-domestic-terrorism-charges/ 409

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States sponsors of terrorism: Iran Since 1984, Iran was designated as a state sponsoring terrorism and has been on the state department‘s list, it was also cited for its support to Hezbollah, Hamas in Gaza, as well as Houthis in Yemen. Syria is considered a route for Iran to supply weapons to Lebanese Hizballah. Iran provides arms, financing, trainings and facilitation of primarily Iraq Shia and afghan fighters to support Assad‘s regime that caused the death of 191,000 people in Syria, also Iran increased training and funding to Iraq Shia militia groups in response to ISIL‘s advance into Iraq; many of these groups such as Kata‘ib Hizballah have committed serious human rights abuses against primarily Sunni civilians. 410 Iran has also continued in arming Lebanese Hizballah and providing them with millions of dollars and has trained thousands of its fighters at campus in Iran. Iran remains a proliferation state and continued to be in noncompliance with its international obligation towards nuclear program. Implementation of the joint plan of action with the P5+1 ( China, France, Germany, Russia, united kingdom and the united states coordinated by the EU). In 2014 the parties negotiated to pursue a comprehensive plan of action to achieve a solution to restore confidence that Iran‘s nuclear program will remain exclusively peaceful Sudan In 1993, Sudan was designated as a state sponsor of terrorism because of concerns about its support to international terrorist groups. In the past years, Sudan was a cooperative partner to the U.S. in counterterrorism and the government of Sudan continued supporting counterterrorism Although the government of Sudan has taken many steps to disable the foreign fighters from using Sudan as a logistic place, the elements of al-Qa‘ida terrorist groups remained in Sudan In 1998, the U.S. military bombed targets in Sudan that were believed to be associated with Al-Qaeda network. In May 2004, the U.S. removed Sudan form the list of countries that were not fully cooperating in antiterrorism efforts411 Sudan maintains a direct relationship with Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), Hamas and PIJ continued to fundraise and maintain presence. Sudan is also exploited by these groups as a transit route to facilitate the movement of Iranian-shipped weapons to Gaza Syria In 1979, Syria was designated as a state sponsor of terrorism, Syria continued its political support of groups such as Lebanese Hezbollah and other groups412; allowing Iran to rearm the terrorists organizations that affected the stability of regions and beyond. 410

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/04/15/399809412/whos-on-the-list-of-state-sponsors-of-terrorism-andwhy 411 http://www.cfr.org/sudan/state-sponsors-sudan/p9367

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The conflict in Syria continued to grow stronger in 2014 and also Assad regime‘s relationship with Hizballah and Iran continued. The Syrian government also plays an important role in the growth of the terrorist groups in Syria because of the permissive attitude that Assad regime took toward AlQaeda‘s foreign fighter facilitation efforts during Iraq conflict. Although the organization for the prohibition of chemical weapon‘s executive council have made a great progress to destroy Syria‘s chemical weapons program, it continued to sign concerns on these materials that can find its way to terrorists organizations. Syria continued to use toxic chemicals against its citizens. Syria‘s behavior against its citizens raises serious question about the regime‘s willingness to comply with its chemical weapons convention.

Lone Wolf Terrorism The concept was introduced in the late 90s by white supremacists ―Tom Metzger and Alex Curtis‖. The ―Lone Wolf Terrorism‖ was defined as an act carried out by a person without orders or connections to any organization –a person acting on his own will-. The ―Lone Wolf Terrorism‖ was given other names such as: (leaderless resistance, individual terrorism or freelance terrorism). Curtis and Metzger introduced this concept to encourage others to act on their own for tactical security reasons.413 The Path to Radicalization414 

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Place of Radicalization: The place in which a regular person or a member of a group turns into a Lone Wolf, the period of Radicalization can be divided into two main time eras: Pre 9/11 where the dominant Radicalization place was the organization or the group this person was once a member of but then he either turned his back on it or it turned its back on him. And post 9/11 where the social media became the trigger of the radicalization process. Motives: Motives of a lone wolf can either be Political or Personal ones, for some it can be both of them as the case with 30 out of the 38 lone wolves that contributed in a terrorist attack pre 9/11 and 36 out of 45 incidents post 9/11. Affinity with Extremist groups: Sympathizing with either a terrorist group or even a legitimate cause can be a step in the path of radicalization. It was found out that 63% of the lone wolves sympathized with: Neo Nazi groups, anti-abortion movement and Palestinian movement. In the pre-9/11 era. Nevertheless, this proportion decreased to become only 42% of the lone wolf terrorist attacks that occurred post 9/11, this time lone wolves were in sympathy with: AlQaeda, Neo Nazi National Alliance and Tea Party Patriots.

412

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/04/15/399809412/whos-on-the-list-of-state-sponsors-of-terrorism-andwhy 413 http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot/article/view/preventing-lone-wolf/html 414 https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/248691.pdf ** William Pierce is a neo Nazi leader who founded out ―The Nationalist Alliance‖, which is considered as a major white nationalist organization

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Enablers: They can either be direct enablers –people, who assist the lone wolf in carrying out his/her attack-, or they can be indirect enablers –symbols who inspire lone wolves in carrying out the attack but the indirect enablers never contribute directly to the operation. Osama Bin Laden is considered an indirect enabler for most of the jihadists and for white supremacists; William Pierce** is considered an inspiration. Triggering Event: Like motive it can also be political or personal. This is considered as ―The final nail in the coffin‖. At this point, the person knows for a fact that he‘ll perform the terrorist operation and that he‘ll become a lone wolf. Triggering events can be either immediate or they can slowly accumulate over time. Broadcasting intent: The Lone wolf wants to deliver a message, and he‘ll stop at nothing to deliver this message. That‘s why quite often before taking part in the terrorist operation. Lone wolves record a message and spread it, so that the whole world will know the objective behind this terrorist operation. The message will either spread through TV, YouTube videos or the Social Media.

Types of Lone Wolf Terrorists415 

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Secular Lone Wolves: They perform the terrorist operations for political, ethnic or nationalist causes. Example: Oklahoma City bombings in 1995, when a bombing by Thomas McVeigh took the life of 168 civilians as a response for the police killing 80 persons in the Waco siege. Religious Lone Wolves: Whose main motive is religious whether it was with a certain religion or against it. E.g. Fort Hood mass shootings in 2009, when an army major. Nidal Hassan killed 13 people, 11 of whom were army personnel to show his rejection to the U.S. army policy in the Middle East.416 Single issue lone wolf: Those who believe in a one and single issue, they campaign for it, fundraise for it. But at some point, after all the doors are closed they resolve to violence. The issue can be: anti-abortion, environment protection and defending animal rights. Example: Eric Rudolph who bombed an abortion clinic in 1996. Criminal Lone wolf: They only seek money or fame. They do not have any motivation but these to perform their terrorist attack. Yet their actions may affect the entire society. Example: 1955, Gilbert Graham stuck a dynamite stick in his mother‘s luggage before she boarded an airplane –hoping that he‘ll collect 37500$ as insurance on her life- his actions led to the death of 44 other passengers and it was the first midair flight bombing/ Another example were the Anthrax attacks in 2001 by dr. Bruce Ivins Idiosyncratic lone wolf: who are motivated by their insanity even though they sometimes have demands but these demands are illogical. Example: Muharem Kurbegovic who set off a bomb in LA airport and demanded that all immigration, naturalization and sex laws to be declared unconstitutional.

415

http://newsroom.ucla.edu/stories/what-makes-lone-wolfe-terrorists-245316 http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/06/us/06forthood.html?module=ArrowsNav&contentCollection=U.S.&action=keypr ess&region=FixedLeft&pgtype=article 416

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Why are lone wolves dangerous? 417 They are harder to catch. It‘s a one man mission so the government can‘t catch him by searching his email or through surveillance. They can use the internet to find any information -whether it was about building a bomb or using a gun- without the need of guidance or training Their ability to think outside the box, as was mentioned above –they succeeded in making the first midair flight bombing-. They can be as creative as they want as there‘s no pressure from the terrorist organization or leaders, Even though these are personal traits that can be possessed by anyone but when we speak about Lone Wolves, the topic is much more dangerous given that their purpose is destruction. There are no constraints on the level of violence, they are not afraid that they may lose public support (as some terrorist groups). Even though the police can tighten its grip, Lone Wolves aren‘t afraid because it‘s such a difficult task to catch a lone wolf. Does Lone Wolf Terrorism actually exist?418 Professor John A.Tures, a Political science Professor in LaGrange College believes that not all terrorist attacks that are assumed by the media as Lone Wolf attacks are labeled right. He believes that due to the security measures which have paralyzed different terrorist organizations whether they were Islamic, left or right wing have led them to a follow a new strategy. This strategy involves recruitment of members who belong to the same ideology and let them figure out how, when and where to carry out an attack. Even though, this has led the organizations to lose its command over some of the members but it has also succeeded in sending a message by carrying out multiple attacks on different targets. Consequently, they are part of the organizations but they do not fall under the leader so they are harder to be caught as they are not part of an organized group. A study that was conducted discovered that 24 terrorist cases that occurred from 2013-2015, 22 terrorist attacks were labeled as lone wolf. Even though only one third were carried out by single individual. Professor Tures believes that terrorist attacks are labeled as ―Lone wolf‖ because it easier to describe terrorist cases as lone wolf as they can‘t be stopped than to be called an organized operation that requires some effort to be stopped.

417 418

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/dec/06/lone-wolf-terror-attacks-impossible-to-stop-says-security-expert http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-a-tures/the-myth-of-the-lone-wolf_b_8563886.html/

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Countering Lone Wolf Terrorism Although Lone Wolves are harder to catch, there are some counter policies that can be done to limit the dangers of Lone Wolves, especially that they are now following a new trend of targeting police officers and military personnel and they have moved to the use of high velocity firearms (whether they are machine or submachine guns), contributing to the increase of casualties number.419 Alex Shone of the Henry Jackson Society believes that it‘s nearly impossible to detect the Lone Wolves that carry out attacks but to know the mechanism of carrying out attacks to be able to stop them in the future. Following a counter radicalization policies .So following a campaign which raises awareness against radicalization and cooperating with civil societies to counter radicalization. Awareness Campaigns against radicalization in schools and on the media.420 Another scholar: Jeffery D. Simpson author of ―Lone Wolf Terrorism: Understanding The Growing Threat‖ believes that improving detection techniques can help reducing the risk of Lone Wolves and monitoring the Internet can help to identify suspected terrorists who enter radical chat rooms or websites.421

Recruitment of Terrorists Any underground activity is in need to expand and outspread their movement like any other institutions in the society, terrorist groups need the process of recruiting new members regularly, which is the process of attracting, screening, and selecting who are considered to be qualified for positions in an organization. Terrorist groups undergo the recruitment process in-house or by the services of their "professional recruiters" who are part of their external networks, recruitment also takes place in cyberspace with the advantage of internet and social media.422 Phases of recruiting terrorists Terrorist organizations are able to watch the users who are watching or interacting with their propaganda, get into their profiles and gather information about them, the recruitment phase begins when the users begin to absorb the propaganda.423 First Phase: The Net. All online platforms can be used at this phase, official websites, Facebook pages, Twitter accounts and YouTube video clips. At this phase, recruiters view the whole populations as fit for recruitment, and can be approached by an online message, taped lecture, video or even a word document. The

419

http://qz.com/497090/lone-wolf-terrorists-starved-for-attention-often-reveal-their-plans-well-before-an-attack/ http://terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot/article/view/preventing-lone-wolf/html 421 http://nation.time.com/2013/02/27/the-danger-of-the-lone-wolf-terrrorist/ 422 Recruitment Tactics by Terrorism Research & Analysis Consortium http://www.trackingterrorism.org/article/recruitment-tactics 423 Terrorists Selection and Recruitment by The National Security Research Division http://www.rand.org/pubs/reprints/RP1214.html 420

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target audience is viewed as compatible enough to be approached, to which some will respond positively, others negatively.424 Second Phase: The Funnel. When a terrorist recruiter believes a target is prepared for recruitment but still requires a significant transformation in identity and still lacks the motivation, the recruiter uses a phased approach that capitalizes on a lot of techniques well studied in cognitive, social and clinical psychology. This phase relies on creating a bond based on the target's alienation, solitude and personal pessimism. It includes online exchanges and further exposure to political, religious or ideological material. Third Phase: The Infection. This phase relies on the radicalization by continuous exposure to online radical material and virtual online guidance. This approach is most successful in large populations where open recruiting is impossible. When a target population is so difficult to reach that the most effective way is recruiting from within. A trusted recruiter is inserted into the target population to rally recruits through direct and personal appeals.425 Fourth Phase: The Activation. This phase relies on practical instruction sent to the recruits on using explosives, weapons, chemicals and poisons; directions regarding selection of the targets, location and timing. That is the final phase for recruits before beginning to assign specific tasks to them.426

Terrorist Organizations & Homegrown Violent Extremists The Ku Klux Klan It's an American hate group known as the KKK, which generally promotes the supremacy of the Christian Caucasian ethnicity. They operate primarily in the Southern region, and are infamous for using extreme torture and violence to oppress other races, especially African Americans. The group was founded in 1866, at the end of the American Civil War, and the early days of the Southern Reconstruction. During this time, African American slaves became legally free, but many Ex-slaveholders sought to maintain pre-Civil War conditions, and intimidate African Americans into submission. From this time until around the civil rights era in the 1950s, racist "Jim Crow" laws were enforced exclusively by KKK vigilantes. And any person who would have tried to upset the status quo could be tortured and killed.427

424

The Internet as a Terrorist Tool for Recruitment and Radicalization of Youth www.homelandsecurity.org/docs/reports/internet_radicalization.pdf 425

Recruiting Terrorist Online by Wilson Center https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/new_terrorism_Info.pdf

426

Old and New Terrorism by Peter R. Neumann https://books.google.com.eg/books?isbn=0745643760

427

Ku Klux Klan: A History of Racism and Violence

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Ku Klux Klan members originally were distinguished only by cross-like insignias and hoods or masks covering their faces. But in the early 20th century, KKK uniforms evolved into a standardized white costume with a peaked hood. This, and the burning cross, remains the two archetypal symbols for the group today.428 During the 1920s, the group experienced a peak popularity of more than 4 million members, after the release of the pro-KKK film, "The Birth of a Nation". However, the Great Depression in the 1930s depleted their ranks, as did an IRS (Internal Revenue Service) tax dispute in the 1940s. Although there was a brief resurgence in popularity during the 1950s, generally the KKK's influence recently has been on the decline. As of 2015, the group claims a total membership of 4 to 6 thousand. They live mostly in Southern states, especially Mississippi, South Carolina and Texas. Today, some members of the KKK claim that they are not a hate group, but rather a non-violent "Christian organization" that disagrees with the way America is changing politically. Klan groups have increased their ranks by joining forces with Neo-Nazi groups, and holding rallies to express racist and anti-immigration views. Anti-Abortion Extremism: The Army of God It was formed shortly after the Supreme Court's decision in the 1973 Roe vs. Wade case. The movement was formed to protest against what many felt is the betrayal of God's will. The movement took many forms; most of them were peaceful and legal. However, striking in front of abortion clinics and lobbying lawmakers were shortly joined by more violent methods of opposition largely based on violence. Many experts believe that the group is not an actual organization but more of ―a shared set of ideas and enemies.‖429 . People behind the Army of God have managed to channel all of their emotions towards stopping abortions at all costs. Membership in the Army of God is difficult to determine, because the group determine anyone involved in the pro-life movement as part of the group, the Army of God cannot be utterly profiled, but it is seen that members are more likely to be white males and a significant percentage had served some time in prison, they are from different age group, and reside all over the country. One member of the Army of God described his devotion into fighting abortion as a part of "Christian rebirth that was accompanied by a commitment to purity.‖430 Through the anti-abortion movement, he has found a place to express his frustration and forget his past failures.

https://www.splcenter.org/sites/default/files/Ku-Klux-Klan-A-History-of-Racism.pdf 428 100 Years Later, What's The Legacy Of 'Birth Of A Nation'? http://www.npr.org/sections/codeswitch/2015/02/08/383279630/100-years-later-whats-the-legacy-of-birth-of-a-nation 429 Chrestomathy: Annual Review of Undergraduate Research at the College of Charleston Volume 2, 2003: pp. 1-12 430 Army of God, website <http://www.armyofgod.com/defense.html>

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Murdering an abortionist is an act of valor to the Army of God; the movement builds upon these single acts of violence, and seeks to capitalize on each action by encouraging even more action by followers in the virtual community. In many ways, the Army of God is structured similarly to modern militia movements. The followers buy into the ideology created by a few members at the top, and individual members, and occasionally small groups, act upon the goals of the group.431 Sovereign Citizens The movement was originally started by a 1960s Christian white supremacist group called "Posse Comitatus". One of their core beliefs is that the United States is controlled by a global Jewish conspiracy. In order to distance themselves from supporting this government while still continuing to live within the U.S., they developed the belief that they are not subject to federal laws. The group is most known for pioneering techniques knows as "paper terrorism." This includes filling frivolous lawsuits, fake reports of tax evasion on government officials, and similar false documents. This forces their victims to spend time and money responding to these illegitimate claims, which sometimes even leads to bankruptcy.432 One of the simplest arguments against sovereign citizens is that the constitution, and by extension, the federal government, has express authority over the citizens of the United States. This is according to article six of the constitution, known as the Supremacy Clause. Those who renounce their citizenship must do it in a foreign country and in front of a U.S. diplomat or consular. They cannot simply declare themselves "sovereign" while continuing to live in the United States. As of 2010, The Southern Poverty Law Center estimated that there were about 100,000 sovereign citizens, Another 200,000 have attempted sovereign citizen arguments against things like traffic tickets and taxes. Even though some experts believe that a portion of their claims are considered to be illegitimate and borne out of anti-Semitic racism, they are a disruptive and growing force within The United States. In 2010, two police officers were shot and killed by "sovereign citizens" in Arkansas during a routine traffic stop. After reviewing some of the incidents that the sovereign citizens took part in, it was concluded that sovereign citizens are just a nuisance, rather than a delay threat as they believe. They claim that the United States law does not apply to them, and refuse to pay traffic tickets and taxes. However, a 2014 survey of law enforcement officers found that sovereign citizens were the number one threat in the U.S., more so than even Islamic extremists or neo-Nazis. They believe that because they never agreed to the federal government's authority, they cannot be arrested or charged with a crime.433 431

Anti-Abortion Extremism: The Army of God Justin C. Altum <chrestomathy.cofc.edu/documents/vol2/altum.pdf> Growing, lurking threat: "Paper terrorism" http://www.salon.com/2013/05/19/why_you_should_fear_paper_terrorism/ 433 Sovereign Citizens: An Introduction for Law Enforcement http://www.mschiefs.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Sovereign_Citizens_Intro_For_LE.pdf 432

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Aircraft Hijacking It is known that skies are the safest way to travel, however the feeling of helplessness when an airplane is hijacked is quite unsettling. Despite the unforgettable 9/11 attack, there is also fatal hijacking that took place through the history of air transportation. Air craft hijacking is divided into various distinct periods: 1931 to 1957, 1958 to 1968, from 1980 to 2001 and from 2001 till nowadays434. D.B Cooper On November 24, 1971 a man calling himself Dan cooper purchased a one way ticket from Portland to Seattle and boarded Northwest Airlines flight 305. He was wearing a dark suit with black tie, while in the air Cooper passed a note to the flight attendant stating that he had a bomb and he hijacked the plan. Cooper demanded $200,000 cash and two parachutes upon landing in Seattle. Cooper released all the passengers and the flight attendants, and all who remained were the pilot, co-pilot, the flight engineer and one flight attendant. After they took off from Seattle, he ordered them to fly to Mexico at 200 miles per hour at an altitude of 10,000 feet. Shortly after 45minutes for the takeoff, he ordered the flight crew to stay in the cockpit and after several minutes the flight attendant observed that Cooper was tying something on his body as he was donning the parachute, tied the bank bag that was full of twenty dollars bill. The rear staircase indicator light came on in the cockpit that the rear staircase of the plan was being lowered manually by Cooper somewhere north of Portland435. At 8:00 p.m. Dan Cooper jumped into the night. When the plane landed they found the remaining two parachutes and his tie left on the seat he was sitting on.436 The FBI has looked at a numbers of suspects and has chased hundreds of leads; it also recreated the conditions of the jump again and placed his landing in an area around Lake Mervin near Ariel, Washington and the hijacking flight 305 by Dan cooper remained as an open case. In 1980 the case returned to the spotlight again. A young boy called Brian Ingram found $5800 of the ransom money on a sandy shore near Columbia River near VANCOUVER, Washington a twenty miles from Lake Merwin. In 2008 a piece of parachute was found near Amboy and was believed that it‘s one of the two parachutes that Dan Cooper used while jumping form the hijacked airplane. 9/11 attack September 11 attacks, which is also called 9/11 attack which is considered a suicide attack carried out by al-Qaeda ‗‘ an Islamic extremist group‘‘ against targets in the United States. That caused extensive 434

<<http://theglitteringeye.com/a-short-history-of-air-hijacking/>> << http://www.strangehistory.org/cms/index.php/popular/78-hijacking-of-flight-305-by-d-b-cooper-case-closedfeature>> 435

436

<<http://www.citizensleuths.com/db-cooper-what-you-need-to-know.html>>

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death, destruction and trigged the U.S to exert lots of efforts to counter terrorism. Crashing two plans into the towers of the world Trade center in New York City, the third one crashed the pentagon in Arlington, the fourth plan hit a field in Pennsylvania. 437Over 3,000 people were killed from different nations; 2,753 people were killed in New York, 184 people at the pentagon, in addition to 40 people were killed on flight 93 including more than 400 officers and firefighters438.

Aviation Security This point is divided into two main parts: Airport security and aircraft security, they both complement each other and security of both airports and aircrafts need microscopic inspection due to the controversy they create and whether they really contribute to protecting the United States or they deviate from their jobs and become privacy invasive. After the catastrophic events of 9/11 it was clear that the airports needed better security measures and the Transportation Security agency (TSA) has managed to implement many changes to the way the airports and aircrafts are secured Airport Security post 9/11439 Employees: 1) Transportation Security Officers: They have around 47,000 employees responsible for screening people and watching entry and exit points in the airports. 2) Behavior Detection officers: who are responsible for screening passengersâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC; behavior to detect any threat and those who show any behavior that might indicate higher risk will be subject to additional screening. 3) National Explosives Detection Canine Teams Program: the trainers prepare dogs and handlers to be able to find explosives or any dangerous materials. Screening 1) Identification: Passengers must show a valid ID at the security check before flying; this ID is compared to the no-fly list which contains names of suspected terrorists. 2) Criminal background checks on all airports employees. 3) The passengers are then checked to find if they have any prohibited objects( Firearms, knives, sharp weapons) 4) Full X-rays body scanners

437

<<http://www.history.com/topics/9-11-attacks>> << http://www.911memorial.org/faq-about-911>> 439 http://blalock.dyson.cornell.edu/wp/airport_security_022305.pdf 438

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5) Pat Downs: Which include self-inspection if the officer suspected that the passenger may pose threat to security. 6) Security checks in category X airports are referred to private contractors due to the huge number of travelers but they‘re also under the guidance of the TSA. Category X airports are the largest and busiest airports in the country. Secure Flight Program440 1) The TSA have introduced the idea of ―Passenger watch list‖ which contains the names of people who might pose a threat to the plane. Afterwards, the names of the passengers would be compared to the names on the watch list and if there‘s any match, the passenger will be subjected to enhanced screening and they may be prohibited from boarding on the plane. 2) All the airlines that are coming from abroad are required to provide advance passenger information and passenger name records prior to departure to the TSA officials. 3) The TSA have managed to implement the secure flight program on all the American airports. Pre-check Program441 This allows some selected passengers who pose no threat or show no sign of risk to pass security checks more quickly. Yet sometimes, the passenger who is a member of this program may be subject to more security checks. Baggage checks 1) 100% of baggage is subject to inspection by the officers. 2) If the TSA officers want to unlock a baggage, they have the authority to break the baggage‘s lock. Aircraft security post the 9/11 attacks: 1) The number of air Marshalls increased on each flight. 2) The passengers are prohibited from entering the cockpit during flight. 3) Some airplanes are equipped with CCTV cameras (closed circuit TV cameras), so the pilots would be able to monitor the cabin activity. 4) Pilots are allowed to carry firearms on the planes given that they must be trained and licensed to use it. 5) Cockpit doors on many aircraft are now reinforced and bulletproof to prevent unauthorized access 6) The number of equipment that the passenger is allowed to carry on the airplane has been heavily reduced.

440

https://www.united.com/web/en-US/content/travel/airport/id/secure.aspx 441 https://www.tsa.gov/tsa-precheck

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Controversy of the TSA442 Some Political activists question the efficiency of the TSA and want to abolish it. Their demands are based upon several reasons:  

 

  

The full body scanner which allows the officers to see beneath the passengers‘ clothes using advanced imaging technology is considered to be an act of invading privacy. The use of pat downs involve‖ the use of the fingers and palm to search for concealed items and more detailed tactile personal inspection of areas higher on the thigh and in the groin area. The procedures routinely involve touching of breasts, buttocks, and genitals." The passengers have shown their distress from the pat downs as it‘s humiliating and intrusive for them. Some passengers even filed a sexual harassment cases against the TSA officers. The ACLU received over 900 complaints from passengers regarding the usage of the full body scanners and the pat downs. Some people question the efficiency of these procedures especially as they do not reveal what is hidden inside the body cavities. The terrorists managed to escape from the security system, and then TSA applies counter measures to these attacks. December 2001, a man tried to detonate a bomb hidden in his shoes. Following it, the passengers were required to take off their shoes, the case of the underwear bomb in 2009 resulted into the use of pat downs. The terrorists are always one step ahead of TSA despite the amount of money that TSA spend each year. Several scientists also suggest that the body scanners have some health risks on the passengers especially when the scanner malfunctions. The behavioral detection will not work in the United States because of the huge number of passengers that come each day to some of the airports in the US. The Behavioral detection officers may choose some passengers due to their different color, ethnicity or religion not because they pose a threat.

Funding of the TSA The TSA has a budget of 7.6 billion per year and part of its funding comes from 2.5 dollars on each ticket. Patriot Act443 The ―USA PATRIOT‖ Act is 10 letters acronym that stands for ―Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism‖ The Patriot Act is considered the first response from the US government to the 9/11 brutal attacks, it was signed on October 26th 2001 by President George W. Bush after it was voted for its favor by both the Senate and the House with huge majority. 442

http://watchdog.org/208544/tsa/ http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/24/AR2010112404510.html 443 http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/7952.pdf

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The Patriot act was originally set for a period of 10 years with a main objective to deter and punish terrorist acts in the United States and around the world, to enhance law enforcement investigatory tools and for other purposes. The Patriot Act consists of 10 parts each with a mission that serves the ultimate goal of the bill which is countering Terrorism.444 Title I Enhancing Domestic Security against terrorism: 

    

Creation of a counter terrorism fund to re-establish the facilities destroyed by terrorist acts; use the funds to target terrorists by providing rewards to whoever instructs the designated force to any information about them and conducting federal threat assessments. Condemning the discrimination Arabs and Muslims faced after the 9/11 attacks. Appropriating 200 million dollars each year till 2004 for the FBI technical support center. Requesting the military assistance in case of a threat involving a WMD. Establishing a national electronic task force to counter any electronic attack targeting the infrastructure of the country. Granting the president to freeze any assets of a foreign country or its nationals if they are engaged in a war or a terrorist attack on the US.

Title II Enhanced Surveillance Procedures 

    

444

Granting law enforcement authorities to intercept any oral, wired or electric transmission in case they are suspecting that this transmission will lead to a serious crime (use of a WMD, funding for terrorists, an attack which will target the US borders, computer fraud offenses, etc.…) Granting federal law enforcement officers the right to share information with federal intelligence officers. A court order will allow the officers to use any means of surveillance to intercept the suspect‘s communications. Allow the government to order the ISP (internet service provider) to present them with information on IP addresses, visited websites, etc... Delayed notification in case of search warrants which means that a suspect can be informed that his/her house has been searched after it had been searched. The allowing of usage of Pen Registers and Trap and Trace -Spying devices- (which would allow the Federal officers to collect information on the suspect.)

http://people.howstuffworks.com/patriot-act.htm

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

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The Sunset Clause: Some of the sections of this title will expire after January 1st, 2006 if they aren‘t extended by voting in the Congress.

Title III International Money Laundering Abatement and Anti-Terrorist Financing Act of 2001     

       

 



The Secretary of treasury can impose regulatory restrictions on a jurisdiction outside the U.S. or bank account or a financial institution if it was involved in a money laundering activity. Requires financial institution with private banking or correspondent accounts to establish policies designed to detect and report money laundering. Prohibiting U.S. banks or financial institution to deal with any correspondent account in any foreign shell bank (Banks that have no physical existence.) Requiring the Secretary of Treasury to issue other regulations within 120 days to increase cooperation between financial institutions and to combat money laundering. Inclusion of some offenses to be under the umbrella of federal money laundry these offenses include (bribery, misappropriations of public funds, theft, embezzlement, firearms trafficking, etc.) Allows U.S. government to forfeiture the contents of any bank accounts or a financial institution involved in money laundering. The banks are required to know the owners of any private accounts opened in them. Increasing the penalty on any employee of the government who will be involved in such crime. Providing immunity to any employee or financial institution that will report info to stop terrorist acts. Each financial institution is required to set up an internal anti money laundry program. that will be subjected to the minimum standards designated by the secretary of treasury. Any suspected person or activity must be reported to the federal officials. Increasing penalties for money laundering. Transforming Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (Fin CEN) from a Treasury Department bureau established administratively to a statutory bureau in the Treasury Department which will have the access to collected reported activities; analyzing the data it receives under the anti-money laundry laws to identify criminal activities, to identify violations of the anti-money laundry laws. It requires anyone engaging in a transfer with 10000 dollars or more to report it to the Fin CEN. Creation of a new criminal offense which involves the smuggling of 10000 dollars in cash inside or outside the US, the penalty is imprisonment up to 5 years and the forfeiture of property. Any institution who is involved in a money transmitting activity operating in a state that requires a license without a license will face 5 years of imprisonment.

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Title IV Protecting the Border    

· Increase number of border patrol personnel. · Expanded monitoring of foreign students. · Foreigners with ties to terrorist organizations are banned from entering the U.S. · The attorney general is mandated to maintain custody of any foreigner involved in any terrorist activity until he's deported from the U.S.

Title V Removing Obstacles to Investigating Terrorism 

  

Supplies Attorney General with the power to pay rewards to combat terrorism in any amount and without an aggregate limitation but for rewards of $250,000 or more it insists on personal approval of the Attorney General or the President. It also grants the secretary of state the right to pay rewards for anyone who informs of any information regarding a terrorist. Permits the attorney general to take DNA samples from any prisoner convicted in a terrorist act or attempt or conspiracy to commit one. Extension of secret service jurisdiction.

Title VI Providing for Victims of Terrorism, Public Safety Officers, and Their Families   

Any public officer who dies or faces a temporary or permanent disability while facing a terrorist act must be compensated through payment. Raising the public safety officers to benefit from $100,000 to $250,000. It allows the Department of Justice to establish a $50 million antiterrorism emergency reserve for supplemental grants to compensate and assist victims of terrorism or mass violence.

Title VII Increased Information Sharing for Critical Infrastructure Protection It authorizes appropriations of $50 million for fiscal year 2002 and $100 million for fiscal year 2003 to be used to establish and operate a secure information sharing system to combat multi-jurisdictional terrorist conspiracies and activities.

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Title VIII Strengthening the Criminal Laws against Terrorism  

     

Increasing the penalty of any terrorist act against mass transportation system to become 20 years, it also included the cases at which the attack is considered a terrorist attack. It defined domestic terrorism as criminal acts that are dangerous to human life, committed primarily within the United States, that appear to be intended to intimidate or coerce civilian population, or to influence a governmental policy by intimidation or coercion, or to affect the conduct of a government by mass destruction, assassination or kidnaping and that occur primarily in the U.S. Jurisdiction. It established separate offense which punishes harboring terrorists by imprisonment for not more than ten years and/or a fine of not more than $250,000. It considers the material support to terrorists as a federal crime. Forfeiture of assets of terrorist organizations. Increasing the maximum penalties for various crimes of terrorism, particularly those which involve the taking of a human life and are not already capital offenses. Making post-release supervision of terrorists for any period of time after it was just 5 years. Increasing the penalty for performing a cyber-hacking act against federal computers to no more than 10 years, previously it was no more than 5 years.

Title IX Improved Intelligence Creates a method for sharing intelligence between government agencies in the U.S Title X Miscellaneous Speaks about some minor issues that cannot fit into any title.

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Domestic Terrorism Task Force As an attempt to combat Domestic Terrorism, following Oklahoma bombings in 1995. the Attorney General. Janet Reno established a task force whose members include: Leaders from the FBI, The Justice Department National Security Division and U.S. attorneys. This task force was called â&#x20AC;&#x2022;The Domestic Terrorism Task Forceâ&#x20AC;&#x2013;445 The Task Force main aim was to combat Domestic Terrorism and it was scheduled to meet on the 11th of Sept., 2001, but the meeting never took place. Since then the attention shifted to combating Foreign Terrorism more. The Task Force was disassembled. That was Until 2014, When Attorney General Eric Holder decided to revive the task force following the Boston Marathonâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s bombing and Fort Hood shootings with the aim of combating the U.S. citizens radicalized via the internet.446

445 446

http://www.truthandaction.org/eric-holder-announces-task-force-domestic-terrorists/2/ http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/06/03/administration-announces-domestic-terror-task-force-revival/

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‫لجنة شئون الشرق األدنى وجنوب ووسط آسٌا ومكافحة اإلرهاب‬ Committee on Near Eastern and South and Central Asian Affairs and Counterterrorism (NESA)

Prepared By:

Chairman

Vice-Chairlady

Mustafa Khaled

Khloud AbdelNaeem

Ranking Member

Party Consultant

Mohamed Rasheed

Naryman Solyman

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‫ممدمة عن اللجنة‬ ‫لجنة شإون الشرق األدنى وجنوب ووسط أسٌا ومكافحة اإلرهاب هً لجنة فرعٌة من لجنة العاللات الخارجٌة فً مجلس الشٌوخ‬ ‫األمرٌكً‪ ،‬وهً اللجنة التً تعمل على العاللات التً تربط الوالٌات المتحدة األمرٌكٌة بالدول الوالعة فً نطاق اللجنة الجؽرافً‬ ‫والتً تمثل دول الشرق األوسط ووسط وجنوب أسٌا وشمال أفرٌمٌا‪.‬‬ ‫وٌعد إنشاء هذه اللجنة من لبل المابمٌن على النموذج منذ بداٌة ظهوره فً عام ‪ 2001‬ذي أهمٌة كبرى‪ ،‬وذلن بسبب أهمٌة تلن‬ ‫المنطمة بالنسبة للسٌاسات األمرٌكٌة فً المجاالت المختلفة بداٌة من الناحٌة السٌاسٌة وااللتصادٌة واألمنٌة‪ ،‬كما إن تلن اللجنة‬ ‫ساعدت فً ربط شرٌحة كبٌرة من أعضابها بلؽتهم األم العربٌة والعودة لثمافتهم األساسٌة‪ ،‬حٌث إن اللؽة الرسمٌة للجنة هً اللؽة‬ ‫العربٌة‪.‬‬ ‫وتعد منطمة الشرق األوسط ووسط وجنوب أسٌا وشمال إفرٌمٌا هً من اهم المناطك االستراتٌجٌة فً العالم‪ ،‬من حٌث مكافحة‬ ‫االرهاب والذي ٌنبع من تلن المنطمة وٌمتد فً جمٌع أجزابها‪ ،‬وكذلن مكافحة الجرٌمة واستؽالل الموارد الطبٌعٌة بشكل أمثل‬ ‫والصراعات بٌن الدول الكبرى على الثروات هنان‪ ،‬وكذلن سبل دعم التحول الدٌممراطً بطرٌمة سلمٌة بعد التحركات الجماهٌرٌة‬ ‫الضخمة التً شهدتها الكثٌر من بلدان تلن المنطمة‪.‬‬ ‫على مدار تارٌخ نموذج الكونجرس األمرٌكً حاولت اللجنة اختٌار الموضوعات األنسب ألعضابها‪ ،‬والتً ٌمكن من خاللها‬ ‫الوصول لدرجة لوٌة من المعرفة ومهارات خلك الحلول وتصفٌة المشاكل المابمة والتحلً بروح الدبلوماسٌة والسٌاسة الرشٌدة‪،‬‬ ‫وهو ما سوؾ ٌحاول فرٌك المحاضرٌن الوصول إلٌه فً الفترة المادمة بالطرٌمة األكادٌمٌة الصحٌحة‪ ،‬ولذلن نؤمل من خالل‬ ‫المحاضرات والصفحات المادمة أن نمدم األمثل ألعضاء اللجنة وأن نحمك هدؾ اللجنة المنشود منذ إنشابها‪.‬‬ ‫‪NESA’16 Secretariats Team‬‬ ‫‪Chairman: Mustafa Khaled‬‬ ‫‪Vice-Chairlady: Khloud AbdelNaeem‬‬ ‫‪Ranking Member: Mohamed Rasheed‬‬ ‫‪Party Consultant: Naryman Solyman‬‬ ‫‪Ranking Member‬‬

‫‪Chairman‬‬

‫‪Chris Murphy‬‬

‫‪Jim Risch‬‬

‫‪Connecticut‬‬

‫‪Idaho‬‬

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‫فهرس المواضٌع‬ ‫الٌمن توازن لوى أم بسط نفوذ‪7 ..........................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫أوال‪ :‬التمهٌد ‪8 .................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫دٌموؼرافٌة الٌمن ‪.............................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫ثانٌا‪ :‬األهمٌة اإلستراتٌجٌة ‪8 ...............................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫األهمٌة الخاصة بمضٌك باب المندب ‪.....................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫ثالثا‪ :‬اللمحة التارٌخٌة ‪8 ....................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫تارٌخ الٌمن المدٌم ‪.............................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫المملكة المتوكلٌة ‪..............................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫األمام ٌحًٌ واألمام أحمد بن ٌحًٌ حمٌد الدٌن ‪.........................................................................................................‬‬ ‫ممتل األمام ٌحًٌ حمٌد الدٌن المتوكل ‪....................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫أحداث ‪ 26‬سبتمبر ‪................................................................................................................................. 1962‬‬ ‫رابعا‪ :‬الٌمن لبل الثورة "علً عبدهللا صالح" ‪10 .....................................................................................................‬‬ ‫المٌالد والنشؤة ‪.................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫الدراسة والتكوٌن ‪.............................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫الوصول للرباسة ‪.............................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫الوحدة الٌمنٌة ‪..................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫والٌات متتالٌة ‪.................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫خامسا‪ :‬النظام السٌاسً‪11 .................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫السلطة التنفٌذٌة ‪..............................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫السلطة التشرٌعٌة ‪............................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫السلطة المضابٌة ‪.............................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫األحزاب ‪........................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫تكتل أحزاب اللماء المشترن ‪................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫سادسا‪ :‬الجماعات المعارضة والمسلحة ‪10 .............................................................................................................‬‬ ‫الحوثٌون ‪.......................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫الحران الجنوبً ‪...............................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫الماعدة ‪..........................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫سابعا‪ :‬العاللات الخارجٌة‪15 ...............................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫الوالٌات المتحدة األمرٌكٌة ‪..................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫المملكة العربٌة السعودٌة ‪....................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫إٌران ‪............................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫مجلس التعاون الخلٌجً ‪.....................................................................................................................................‬‬

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‫ثامنا‪ :‬الثورة الٌمنٌة ‪18 .....................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫أسباب لٌام الثورة ‪.............................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫أحداث الثورة ‪..................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫نتابج الثورة ‪....................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫الحوثٌون بعد الثورة ‪..........................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫الماعدة بعد الثورة ‪.............................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫االنشماق العسكري بعد الثورة ‪..............................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫العاللات الخارجٌة بعد الثورة ‪..............................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫الوالٌات المتحدة األمرٌكٌة ‪..................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫المملكة العربٌة السعودٌة ‪....................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫إٌران ‪............................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫تاسعا‪ :‬عاصفة الحزم ‪22 ...................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫ما لبل العاصفة ‪................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫بداٌة العملٌات ‪.................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫المولؾ األمرٌكً ‪.............................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫المولؾ اإلٌرانً ‪..............................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫ما بعد العاصفة ‪................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫اللعبة اإللتصادٌة الكبرى عمب عاصفة الحزم ‪..........................................................................................................‬‬ ‫عاشرا‪ :‬تداعٌات األزمة الٌمنٌة على العاللات الدولٌة ‪27 ............................................................................................‬‬ ‫التمارب الخلٌجً – الروسً ‪................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫التمارب الخلٌجً – اإلٌرانً ‪...............................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫التداعٌات اإللتصادٌة على الٌمن بعد العاصفة‪...........................................................................................................‬‬ ‫مفاوضات ما بعد عاصفة الحزم ‪...........................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫الحادي عشر‪ :‬حموق اإلنسان ‪30 ..........................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫االعتداء على العاملٌن فً مجال الصحة ‪.................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫حموق السٌدات والفتٌات ‪.....................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫األطفال والصراع المسلح ‪...................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫الؽارات الجولٌة األمرٌكٌة بطابرات بدون طٌار ‪........................................................................................................‬‬ ‫االستخدام الؽٌر لانونً لأللؽام األرضٌة ‪.................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫اإلتجار بالبشر ‪.................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫االعتداء على الصحفٌٌن ‪.....................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫عموبة اإلعدام ‪.................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫عاصفة الحزم ‪.................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫الثانً عشر‪ :‬مستمبل العاللات الثنائٌة وخٌارات الوالٌات المتحدة اإلستراتٌجٌة ‪32 ............................................................‬‬

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‫لٌبٌا ‪ ...‬مستمبل منتظر وانمسامات مستمرة ‪33 ........................................................................................................‬‬ ‫أوال‪ :‬التمهٌد ‪33 ...............................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫دٌموؼرافٌة لٌبٌا ‪...............................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫ثانٌا‪ :‬األهمٌة اإلستراتٌجٌة ‪34 .............................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫المولع ‪...........................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫إلتصادٌا ‪........................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫ثالثا‪ :‬لمحة تارٌخٌة ‪35 ......................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫االحتالل اإلٌطالً ‪............................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫العهد الملكً‬ ‫رابعا‪ :‬سنوات المذافً ‪36 ...................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫المٌالد والنشؤة ‪.................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫الدراسة والتكوٌن ‪.............................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫الوصول للرباسة ‪..............................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫خامسا‪ :‬النظام السٌاسً‪36 .................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫ما لبل الثورة ‪..................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫سادسا‪ :‬العاللات الخارجٌة ‪37 .............................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫الوالٌات المتحدة األمرٌكٌة ‪..................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫مصر ‪............................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫الجزابر ‪.........................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫تونس‪............................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫السودان ‪.........................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫تشاد ‪.............................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫سابعا‪ :‬أسباب لٌام الثورة ‪39 ...............................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫ثامنا‪ :‬اندالع الثورة ‪40 ......................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫لٌام الثورة ‪......................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫نماذج الصراع ‪................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫حادث المنصلٌة األمرٌكٌة فً بنؽازي‪.....................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫استمرار الثورة ‪................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫تاسعا‪ :‬نتائج الثورة ‪42 ......................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫النظام السٌاسً ‪................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫االنتخابات ‪......................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫عاشرا‪ :‬أحداث ما بعد الثورة‪43 ...........................................................................................................................‬‬

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‫خلٌفة حفتر ‪.....................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫الجماعات اإلسالمٌة‪........................................................................................................................................ :‬‬ ‫فجر لٌبٌا ‪......................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫درع لٌبٌا ‪.......................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫أنصار الشرٌعة‪................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫مجلس شورى ثوار بنؽازي‪.................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫مجلس شورى مجاهدي درنة ‪...............................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫الجماعات الداعمة للجٌش ‪...................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫الموات الحكومٌة ‪..............................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫مٌلٌشٌات الصواعك والمعماع ‪...............................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫داعش ‪...........................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫بداٌة اإلضطرابات‪............................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫اإلنمسام ‪.........................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫تارٌخ مضطرب ٌعٌد نفسه ‪..................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫المشاكل السٌاسٌة التً تدفع للمتال ‪.........................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫المشاكل األمنٌة التً تدفع للمتال ‪...........................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫انمطاع إمدادات النفط ‪........................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫الحادي عشر‪ :‬ردود الفعل الخارجٌة بعد األحداث األخٌرة‪49 ........................................................................................‬‬ ‫الوالٌات المتحدة األمرٌكٌة ‪.................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫المساعدات األمرٌكٌة للٌبٌا ‪..................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫الوالٌات المتحدة بعد أحداث ‪..................................................................................................................... 2014‬‬ ‫الضربات الجوٌة األمرٌكٌة على المتشددٌن فً لٌبٌا ‪...................................................................................................‬‬ ‫مصر ‪............................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫الجزائر ‪.........................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫تونس ‪...........................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫السودان ‪........................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫الثانً عشر‪ :‬مساعً الحلول فً لٌبٌا ‪51 ...............................................................................................................‬‬

‫الثالث عشر‪ :‬حموق اإلنسان ‪52 ...........................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫المصؾ العشوابً والهجمات على األهداؾ المدنٌة‪.....................................................................................................‬‬ ‫استهداؾ المستشفٌات العالجٌة ‪.............................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫االعتمال واالختطاؾ والتعذٌب ‪.............................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫المتل الؽٌر مشروع ‪...........................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫االعتداء على العاملٌن فً وسابل اإلعالم ‪................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫النزوح الداخلً ‪................................................................................................................................................‬‬

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‫المحاكمات الجابرة ‪...........................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫حموق المرأة ‪...................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫حموق الالجبٌن والمهاجرٌن ‪................................................................................................................................‬‬

‫الرابع عشر‪ :‬مستمبل العاللات الثنائٌة وخٌارات الوالٌات المتحدة اإلستراتٌجٌة ‪56 ............................................................‬‬

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‫الٌمن ‪ ...‬توازن لوى ام بسط نفوذ على المنطمة‬ ‫أوال‪ :‬تمهٌد‬ ‫الٌمن والخلٌج‪ ،‬منطمة كانت دابما توصؾ بالهادبة طٌلة فترة الحكم الملكً‪ ،‬وبرؼم التطورات األخٌرة فً منتصؾ المرن العشرٌن‬ ‫وما ألت إلٌه األمور من حروب لوٌة تدخلت فٌها أطراؾ عربٌة أخرى‪.‬‬ ‫برؼم وجود مضٌك ٌعد من اهم ‪ 3‬ممرات مابٌة فً العالم وهو مضٌك باب المندب فً الدولة الٌمنٌة إال أن البالد لم تحظى باالهتمام‬ ‫العالمً‪ ،‬وذلن على الرؼم من إن عوابد النفط الخلٌجٌة بؤكملها تمر عبره ٌومٌا‪ ،‬وبرؼم وجوده كممر لدولة إسرابٌل‪.‬‬ ‫ولكن مع الوحدة الٌمنٌة أخذت األمور تطور تدرٌجٌا‪ ،‬خاصة فً ظل فترة الحرب على اإلرهاب عمب أحداث ‪ 11‬سبتمبر عام‬ ‫‪ ، 2001‬حٌث ظهرت اهمٌة الٌمن لمحاربة التنظٌمات االرهابٌة المسلحة التً اتخذت من أرضه مالذا لها‪ ،‬وأخذت الٌمن أهتماما‬ ‫من نوع أخر عمب التوترات اإلٌرانٌة العالمٌة‪ ،‬خاصة مع حروب الحكومة الٌمنٌة مع الحوثٌون المتماربٌٌن مع الدولة اإلٌرانٌة‪.‬‬ ‫ومع كل هذه التطورات إال أن الٌمن ظل بعٌدا عن الصراعات الدولٌة حتى عام ‪ ،2011‬ولكن فً الولت الحالً تزاٌد االهتمام‬ ‫العالمً بالٌمن بل والنزاع الدولً علٌها‪ ،‬وذلن عمب بداٌة حربا نفسٌة بٌن دول كبرى فً المنطمة وكذلن حروب التصادٌة بٌن لوى‬ ‫عالمٌة كبرى‪.‬‬

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‫دٌموغرافٌة الٌمن‬‫الجمهورٌة الٌمنٌة تمع جنوب ؼرب شبه الجزٌرة العربٌة فً ؼرب آسٌا‪ .‬تبلػ مساحتها حوالً ‪ 527,970‬كٌلو متر مربع‪ٌ ،‬حد‬ ‫الٌمن من الشمال السعودٌة ومن الشرق سلطنة عمان‪ ،‬لها ساحل جنوبً على بحر العرب وساحل ؼربً على البحر األحمر‪ .‬ولدى‬ ‫الٌمن أكثر من ‪ 200‬جزٌرة‪ ،‬وتتكون الٌمن من ‪ 22‬محافظة‪ ،‬وٌبلػ عدد سكانها ‪ 25,408,288‬نسمة‪ٌ ،‬عٌش منهم ‪ %27.3‬فً‬

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‫ الجمهورٌة الٌمنٌة‪ ،‬بً بً سً‪ٌ 72 ،‬ونٌو ‪،7002‬‬‫‪http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/arabic/middle_east_news/newsid_2935000/2935122.stm‬‬

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‫المدن ممابل ‪ %73.7‬فً األرٌاؾ‪ ،‬وٌبلػ المسلمٌن فً الٌمن ‪ ،%99‬وٌنمسمون إلً كال من السنة الشافعٌة والزٌدٌة الهادوٌة وتبلػ‬ ‫نسبة الشافعٌة حوالً ‪ %60‬ممابل ‪ %40‬للزٌدٌة‪.448‬‬

‫ثانٌا‪ :‬األهمٌة االستراتٌجٌة‬ ‫األهمٌة اإلستراتٌجٌة لمولع الٌمن الجؽرافً تتضح فً جمٌع المستوٌات السٌاسٌة وااللتصادٌة و االجتماعٌة واألمنٌة فً منطمة‬ ‫الشرق األوسط والخلٌج‪ ،‬حٌث تمثل الٌمن البوابة الجنوبٌة لمدخل البحر األحمر ‪ -‬و هو الذي ٌتصل بمناة السوٌس ‪ -‬الممر التجاري‬ ‫العالمً‪ ،‬وتتحكم فً الممر الذي ٌصله بالمحٌط الهندي‪ ،‬كذلن وجود خلٌج عدن باألراضً الٌمنٌة والذي ٌطل على كال من البحر‬ ‫األحمر والمحٌط الهندي من الخاصرة‪ ،‬وتتحكم كذلن بطرق المالحة البحرٌة المإدٌة إلى آسٌا ‪ ،‬باإلضافة إلى ثملها السكانً‪،‬‬ ‫وتوجهاتها السٌاسٌة وااللتصادٌة واالجتماعٌة‪ ،‬ولضمان استمرار وتزاٌد تدفك الثروة النفطٌة دون مشكالت أو عوابك صعبة‪.‬‬ ‫تشترن الٌمن مع السعو دٌة فً الحدود بحوالً ألفً كٌلومتر من الشمال‪ ،‬بٌنما تحد الٌمن من ناحٌة الشرق سلطنة عمان‪ ،‬وتشترن‬ ‫الدولتان بحدود ٌبلػ طولها ‪ 288‬كٌلومترا‪ ،‬وعلى مسافة لدرها ‪ 2500‬كٌلومترا‪ ،‬تمتد الجبهة البحرٌة للٌمن‪.‬‬ ‫األهمٌة الخاصة بمضٌك باب المندب‬‫تتمثل االهمٌة الكبرى لمكانة مضٌك باب المندب فً أنه ٌعد أحد أهم الممرات المابٌة فً العالم وٌربط بٌن البحر األحمر وخلٌج‬ ‫عدن وأكثر المناطك التً ٌمر بها نالالت الشحن المختلفة و للسفن‪ ،‬حٌث ٌمر عبر باب المندب ٌومٌا ماٌمثل ثالثة مالٌٌن وثالثمابة‬ ‫ألؾ برمٌل نفط‪ ،‬بنسبة ‪ %4‬من الطلب العالمً على النفط‪ ،‬وتمر منه كل سنة ‪ 25000‬سفٌنة و الذي ٌمثل ‪ %7‬من المالحة‬ ‫العالمٌة‪ ،‬بما ٌعادل ‪ 57‬سفٌنة ٌومٌة‪ ،‬وتتجلً أهمٌته بسبب ارتباطه بمناة السوٌس وممر مضٌك هرمز‪.‬‬ ‫ظلت أهمٌة باب المندب محدودة حتى افتتاح لناة السوٌس ‪ 1869‬وربط البحر األحمر وما ٌلٌه بالبحر المتوسط وعالمه‪ ،‬فتحول إلى‬ ‫واحد من أهم ممرات النمل والمعابر على الطرٌك البحرٌة بٌن بلدان أوربٌة والبحر المتوسط‪ ،‬وعالم المحٌط الهندي وشرلً إفرٌمٌا‪،‬‬ ‫تلن الممٌزات جعلت باب المندب ٌحتل المرتبة الثالثة فً العالم بعد مضٌك هرمز‪ ،‬ومضٌك ملما من حٌث كمٌة النالالت المحملة‬ ‫بالنفط التً تعبره بمعدل ٌومٌا‪ ،‬مما زاد أهمٌته االستراتٌجٌة‪ ،‬وزاد من لٌمته االلتصادٌة‪.‬‬ ‫كان للٌمن استبالة استراتٌجٌة فً السٌطرة على المضٌك الستحواذه علً " جزٌرة برٌم" التً تمع على مدخل المضٌك ‪ ،‬إال أن‬ ‫بعض الدول سعت إلً انشاء لواعد عسكرٌة لربه‪ ،‬وذلن ألهمٌته العالمٌة فً التجارة والنمل‪ ،‬إذ تملن الوالٌات المتحدة لاعدة فً‬ ‫جٌبوتً على الضفة الؽربٌة لمضٌك باب المندب‪ ،‬وٌمتلن الفرنسٌن أٌضا حضورا عسكرٌا لدٌما فً جٌبوتً وذلن من خالل‬ ‫المعاهدة الدفاعٌة التً تعود إلى عام ‪ ،1977‬كما تستضٌؾ جٌبوتً اكبر لاعدة عسكرٌة فرنسٌة فً افرٌمٌا تضم ‪ 2700‬عسكري‪،‬‬ ‫كما سعت األمم المتحدة فً عام ‪ 1982‬لتنظٌم مشكلة الممرات المابٌة الدولٌة ودخلت اتفالٌتها المعروفة باتفالٌة جاماٌكا حٌز التنفٌذ‬ ‫فً شهر نوفمبر من عام ‪ ،1994‬ووفما لعدد من التمارٌر اإلعالمٌة المنشورة بعد أحداث ‪ 11‬سبتمبر‪ ،‬فإن الوالٌات المتحدة‬ ‫األمرٌكٌة نشرت بعض لواتها فً جٌبوتً والصومال للتصدي ألي ضربة محتملة أو استهداؾ من تنظٌم الماعدة لباب المندب‪،‬‬ ‫وتوفٌر عبور مالحً آمن للبترول العالمً‪.449‬‬ ‫ثالثا‪ :‬لمحة تارٌخٌة‬ ‫‪448‬‬

‫ الجمهورٌة الٌمٌنة‪ ،‬بً بً سً‪ٌ 72 ،‬ونٌو ‪،7002‬‬‫‪http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/arabic/middle_east_news/newsid_2935000/2935122.stm‬‬ ‫‪449‬‬ ‫‪ - http://goo.gl/TKAoFG‬مضٌك باب المندب ‪ ..‬أهمٌة استراتٌجٌة‪ ،‬سكاي نٌوز‪ 72 ،‬مارس ‪،7002‬‬

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‫التارٌخ المدٌم للٌمن‬‫سمٌت الٌمن لدٌما ب"العربٌة السعٌدة" و ٌؤتً اسمها من "الٌمن" و هو الرخاء و البركة‪ ،‬وتتمٌز بحضور مإثر فً جمٌع حمب‬ ‫التارٌخ المختلفة‪ ,‬حٌث لامت حضارات عدٌدة فً الٌمن منذ المدم‪ ,‬مثل‪ :‬حضارة سبؤ وحضارة حمٌر و حضرموت‪ ,‬و تمٌزت هذه‬ ‫الحضارات بوجود حروفا أبجدٌا خاصة لها والنشاط التجاري المزدهر‪.‬‬ ‫المملكة المتوكلٌة‬‫تم انشاء المملكة المتوكلٌة و عاصمتها "تعز" عام ‪ 1918،‬واستمرت حتً عام ‪ 1962‬بعد أن انهٌارها فً عام ‪ .1962‬كانت تمع‬ ‫فً الجزء الشمالً للٌمن‪ ,‬وكانت المملكة المتوكلٌة لد حصلت علً عضوٌة فً الجامعة العربٌة كؤحدى الدول المإسسة لها‪ ,‬و فً‬ ‫عام ‪ 1947‬أصبحت عضوا فً االمم المتحدة‪.‬‬ ‫ولد ساهم فً انشاء المملكة المتوكلٌة االمام ٌحًٌ حمٌد الدٌن المتوكل بعد صراعات عدٌدة للحصول علً االستمالل من الدولة‬ ‫العثمانٌة‪ ,‬حٌث لام العثمانٌون بضم جزء من الٌمن الً امبراطورٌتهم فً المرن السادس عشر‪ ,‬وتمكن من االستمالل بالٌمن عام‬ ‫‪450‬‬ ‫‪ 1918‬عمب انتهاء الحرب العالمٌة االولى وتفكن الدولة العثمانٌة‪.‬‬ ‫االمام ٌحًٌ حمٌد الدٌن واألمام احمد بن ٌحًٌ حمٌد الدٌن‬‫مع االحتالل البرٌطانً لبعض مناطك الٌمن‪ ،‬لامت برٌطانٌا بممارسة الضؽوط السٌاسٌة على اإلمام ٌحٌى من أجل دفعه الً التخلً‬ ‫عن مطالباته المستمرة بالجنوب و دفعه لترن المماومة ضد االستعمار‪ ،‬إال أن االمام لم ٌتراجع لط‪ ،،‬حتى وصل الطرفان إلى حل‬ ‫مإلت‪ ،‬و هو تبعا للبنود المرفمة فً االتفالٌة البرٌطانٌة الٌمنٌة لعام ‪ ،1934‬و التً أكدت فً مادتها الثالثة على المحافظة على‬ ‫الوضع الراهن فً مناطك الطرفٌن‪.451‬‬ ‫وفً ‪ 17‬فبراٌر عام ‪ 1948‬لتل االمام ٌحًٌ حمٌد بعد أن دبر عدد من الضباط انمالبا عسكرٌا ضده‪ ،‬و لكن سرعان ما باء هذا‬ ‫االنمالب بالفشل من خالل ثورة مضادة بمٌادة أبنه االمام أحمد حمٌد الدٌن مإٌدة بؤنصاره من المبابل‪ ،‬ولد واجه اإلمام أحمد فً فترة‬ ‫حكمه ضؽوطات هابلة منها االنمالب الذي حاول المٌام به احمد ٌحًٌ الثالٌا‪ ،‬والذي سرعان ما فشل وأعدم عام ‪ ،1955‬توفً بعد‬ ‫ذلن اإلمام أحمد فً سبتمبر ‪ 1962‬وخلفه ابنه ولً العهد األمٌر دمحم البدر‪ ،‬وذلن فً ظروؾ ؼامضة فٌما عرؾ بؤحداث ‪26‬‬ ‫سبتمبر ‪.1962‬‬ ‫أحداث ‪ 32‬سبتمبر ‪2623‬‬‫تم أعالن عن طرٌك اذاعة "صنعاء" عن وفاة حاكم الٌمن "اإلمام أحمد" فً ٌوم ‪ 18‬سبتمبر ‪ ،1962‬وانتمال خالفة الٌمن إلى ابن‬ ‫االمام أحمد وهو‪" :‬دمحم البدر"‪ ،‬ظاهرٌا كان كل شىء ٌبدو مستمرا وال ٌوجد ما ٌدل على وجود ثورة لادمة ستندلع فى ٌوم "‪26‬‬ ‫سبتمبر ‪ ،"1962‬ولد كان هنان مخططا ٌتم للمضاء على حكم "اإلمامة" فً الٌمن ٌموده ضباط فى الجٌش الٌمنً‪ ،‬ولد حددوا لٌلة‬ ‫‪ 26‬سبتمبر لتنفٌذ مهمتهم‪ ،‬وفٌها حاصروا لصر البدر ولصر السالح ومبنى اإلذاعة‪.‬‬ ‫كما تم أعالن فً الثامن و العشرٌن من سبتمبر عن وفاة "اإلمام بدر'' على الرؼم من إنه كان ال ٌزال على لٌد الحٌاة ‪ ،‬وأعلنت‬ ‫أٌضا إن لابد االنمالب هو العمٌد "عبد هللا السالل" لابد حرس البدر‪ ،‬ولد أعلن "الحسن" عم األمام بدر وأخو األمام الممتول أحمد أنه‬

‫‪450‬‬

‫‪ - http://goo.gl/2jD70W‬تحدٌات الٌمنٌٌن‪ ،‬الشرق األوسط‪ 77 ،‬أكتوبر ‪،7002‬‬ ‫ معاهدة الصدالة بٌن الٌمن وبرٌطانٌا‪ ،‬المماتل‪،‬‬‫‪http://www.moqatel.com/openshare/Behoth/Siasia2/HarbYemen/mol02.doc_cvt.htm‬‬ ‫‪451‬‬

‫‪205‬‬

‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫سٌعود إلى الٌمن لٌتحمل مسبولٌة اعادة حكم ال حمٌد‪ ،‬ولكنه عاد فى الٌوم التالى إلً السعودٌة‪ ،‬وكان ذلن بداٌة لفترة طوٌلة من‬ ‫الصراع بٌن السعودٌة ومصر علً األراضً الٌمنٌة بخصوص الموضوع الشابن حول الٌمن كجمهورٌة أو إمامة‪.‬‬ ‫ؼادر اإلمام البدر صنعاء وفر فً الحال إلى مدٌنة "حجة" فً شمال الٌمن‪ ,‬وطلب المساعدة من المبابل فً الشمال " وبدأ حرب‬ ‫الستعادة العاصمة‪ ،‬و فورا بدأت مصر فً إنشاء جسر جوي وبحري ضخم لنمل الرجال والمعدات واألسلحة والتعٌٌنات‬ ‫والمستشفٌات بكامل أطممها الفنٌة والبشرٌة ومستودعات الولود‪ ،452‬ومن ناحٌة أخرى لامت المملكة السعودٌة‪ -‬التً كانت تخشى‬ ‫المد الناصري ‪ -‬بإرسال لوات من جٌشها إلى الحدود الٌمنٌة‪.‬‬

‫الٌمن الجنوبً‬‫بعد انسحاب الموات البرٌطانٌة من األراضً الجنوبٌة بالكامل فً أواخر ‪ 1967‬وبعد استمالل الٌمن كامال من االحتالل البرٌطانً‪,‬‬ ‫كان من المتولع أن تكون تلن الفترة بداٌة عهد جدٌد فً الٌمن كشمال و جنوب‪ ,‬و لكن سرعان ما احتدت الخالفات و االضطرابات‬ ‫بٌن الدولتٌن علً نزاعات حدودٌة و مناطك مختلفون علٌها‪.‬‬ ‫كما تجلً الصراع بٌن االحزاب االشتراكٌة المختلفة فً الجنوب خصوصا خالل الثمانٌنٌات و التسعٌنٌات‪ ،‬وتلن األحداث لادت الً‬ ‫صراعات دموٌة للحصول علً السلطة‪ ،‬فمد تولى رباسة الٌمن الجنوبً حتى الوحدة خمسة رإساء هم (لحطان الشعبً – سالم ربٌع‬ ‫علً – عبدالفتاح إسماعٌل – على ناصر دمحم – علً سالم البٌض)‪ ،‬وكذلن الحروب التً لامت فً الجنوب مثل حرب الجبهة عام‬ ‫‪ ،1978‬والحرب االهلٌة الجنوبٌة عام ‪.1986‬‬ ‫وٌعد سموط االتحاد السوفٌتً من أهم األسباب التً أدت النتهاء الٌمن الجنوبً‪ ،‬أما األحوال فً شمال الٌمن" جمهورٌة الٌمن‬ ‫العربٌة"‪ :‬فهً لم تخلو من الصراعات السٌاسٌة أٌضا حٌث كان هنان العدٌد من االؼتٌاالت‪ ،‬والتً استمرت حتً اؼتٌال الربٌس‬ ‫"أحمد الؽشمً" فً ٌونٌو ‪1978‬م ‪,‬والذي أدي إلً تولً "علً عبدهللا صالح" رباسة للجمهورٌة والذي استمر حتً عام ‪2011‬م‪.‬‬ ‫رابعا‪ :‬الٌمن لبل الثورة "علً عبد هللا صالح"‬ ‫الدراسة والتكوٌن‬‫فً البداٌة عمل صالح راعٌا لألؼنام‪ ،‬وتلمى تعلٌمه األول فً مدرسة المرٌة‪ ،‬ثم فر من المرٌة عام ‪ 1958‬لٌلتحك بالجٌش فً سن‬ ‫الـ‪ ،16‬دخل مدرسة صؾ ضباط الموات المسلحة عام ‪ 1960‬وشارن فً أحداث ثورة ‪ 26‬سبتمبر ‪ 1962‬ثم رلً بعد ذلن لرتبة‬ ‫مالزم ثان‪ ،‬بعد ذلن التحك بمدرسة المدرعات عام ‪ ،1964‬وتولى عدة مهام لٌادٌة فً هذا التخصص‪ ،‬وفً عام ‪ 1975‬أصبح‬ ‫المابد العسكري للواء تعز ولابد معسكر خالد بن الولٌد‪.‬‬ ‫الوصول للرئاسة‬‫بعد تولٌته منصب لواء تعز‪ ،‬أصبح صالح من أكثر المٌادات سلطة و نفوذا فً شمال الٌمن‪ ،‬و كانت لدٌه العدٌد من العاللات الموٌة‬ ‫مع العدٌد من شٌوخ المبابل فً الٌمن‪ ،‬وبعد ألل من شهر من ممتل الؽشمً فً عملٌة اؼتٌال والذي كان ربٌس الجمهورٌة لبل صالح‬ ‫لمدة سنة واحدة فمط‪ ،‬أصبح علً عبد هللا صالح و الذي كان باألساس عضو فً مجلس الرباسة ربٌسا للجمهورٌة العربٌة الٌمنٌة‪،‬‬

‫‪ - http://goo.gl/gSGfHN‬ناصر والسادات وعامر مسإلون عن حرب الٌمن‪ ،‬الوفد‪ 02 ،‬سبتمبر ‪،7002‬‬

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‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫وفً عام ‪ 1979‬حاولت جماعة من الضباط الناصرٌٌن و لابدهم دمحم فالح االنمالب على صالح‪ ،‬لكن المحاولة باءت بالفشل‪،‬‬ ‫ونتٌجة لهذا لام علً عبدهللا صالح بإسناد إدارة الجٌش وهٌبات وإدارات األمن إلً الممربٌن منه‪.‬‬ ‫الوحدة الٌمنٌة‬‫فً ماٌو ‪ 1990‬أعلنت دولتً الٌمن لٌام الوحدة الٌمنٌة بٌن شمالها وجنوبها‪ ،‬وأصبح للٌمن الموحد ربٌس انتمالً‪ :‬علً عبد هللا‬ ‫صالح‪ ،‬وعلً سالم البٌض ناببا له‪ ،‬كما أصبح لكل من حزبً المإتمر الشعبً العام واالشتراكً حصة متوازنة من السلطة‪ ,‬و لكن‬ ‫تلن الحصص لم تستطع أن تمنع االشتباكات فً السنوات الثالثة األولً‪ ،‬حٌث شهدت الٌمن اؼتٌاالت سٌاسٌة عدٌدة لسٌاسٌٌن‬ ‫جنوبٌٌن وشمالٌٌن‪ ،‬أنتجت بعض من التوترات عسكرٌة‪ ،‬حتً أدت الً الحرب الشاملة التً انتهت بانتصار لوات داعمة الشرعٌة‬ ‫لرباسة علً عبدهللا صالح‪ ،‬وهروب البٌض الً سلطنة عمان‪ ،‬وبذلن اصبح صالح الربٌس الٌمنً بعد أن كان ربٌس مجلس الرباسة‬ ‫فً أكتوبرعام ‪ ،1994‬وعبد ربه منصور هادي النابب الجدٌد للربٌس الٌمنً‪.‬‬

‫ والٌات متتالٌة‬‫فى عام ‪ 1999‬انتخب على عبد هللا صالح ربٌسا للٌمن بعد ان خاض االنتخابات ضد مرشح واحد فمط وهو نجٌب لحطانى الشعبى‬ ‫نجل الربٌس الجنوبى االول لحطان الشعبى‪ ،‬وعندما حل عام ‪ 2003‬لام الربٌس الٌمنى على عبد هللا صالح باعالن عدم نٌتة‬ ‫الترشح للرباسة المادمه‪ ،‬وبعد اعالن هذا المرار من جانب الربٌس صالح خرجت مظاهرات رافضه لهذا االعالن‪ ،‬وفً الممابل‬ ‫نظمت مظاهرات مإٌدة للمرار‪ ،‬وظل صالح ٌتالعب بكونه لن ٌترشح‪ ،‬لكنه عاد بعد ذلن لٌعلن فً ‪ٌ 24‬ونٌو عام ‪ 2006‬لبول‬ ‫الضؽوط الشعبٌة إلعادة ترشٌحه و بالفع ل ترشح للرباسة مرة ثانٌة ضد بن شمالن الذي رشحته أحزاب اللماء المشترن‪ ،‬وفاز صالح‬ ‫بفترة رباسٌة جدٌدة‪.‬‬ ‫تم تنظٌم فً عهد صالح انتخابات عدٌدة وأنشاء مجلس نواب ودستور‪ ،‬تم التشكٌن فً شفاففٌتهم‪ ،‬إال أن هكذا تمكن صالح من تحمٌك‬ ‫الوحدة بٌن الشطرٌن الشمالً و الجنوبً فً عام ‪ ،1990‬وأوجد حلوال لكثٌر من مشاكل الحدود التارٌخٌة العالمة بٌن الٌمن‬ ‫وجٌرانها‪ ،‬إرٌترٌا وعمان والسعودٌة‪ ،‬وتوسع فً انشاء عاللات بٌن الٌمن و بالد أخري عربٌة وإللٌمٌة ودولٌة‪ .‬لكنه مع مرور‬ ‫الولت‪ ،‬انفرد بالسلطة‪ ،‬وكبر فً عهد صالح االستبداد‪ ،‬و الفساد فً الموالع السٌاسٌة وااللتصادٌة والعسكرٌة واألمنٌة المختلفة‪،‬‬ ‫وبدال من االستثمار واالستفادة من الكفاءات العلمٌة والمهنٌة المختلفة‪ ،‬أصبحت كثٌر من الوظابؾ‪ ،‬خاصة فً المناصب المٌادٌة‬ ‫تسٌطر علٌها األهواء والوالءات الشخصٌة‪ ،‬كما أصبح نشاط المطاع الخاص ومعظم اإلعانات والمساعدات المادمة من الخارج فً‬ ‫ٌد الفبات العسكرٌة و االلتصادٌة و السٌاسٌة المختلفة‪.‬‬ ‫أما فً الجنوب وعمب الحرب األهلٌة التً انتصر فٌها الشمال‪ ،‬كان لصالح دورا فً تطور األمور هنان‪ ،‬حٌث إن هذا االنتصار لم‬ ‫ٌكن الفصل األخٌر فً الصراع بٌن الطرفٌن‪ ،‬فمنذ تلن اللحظة ظهرت رإٌتان أساسٌتان ومتعارضتان‪ ،‬األولى أن الحرب لوت‬ ‫الوحدة االندماجٌة بٌن الشطرٌن‪ ،‬ولضت على طموحاتهم االنفصالٌة‪ ،‬والثانٌة أنها لد لضت بتداعٌاتها الالحمة‪ ،‬على مشروعٌة‬ ‫الوحدة وآفالها المستمبلٌة‪ ،‬ولادت إلى احتالل الشمال للجنوب‪ ،‬وكانت وجهة النظر األخٌرة تعبر عن الشعور السابد لدى معظم سكان‬ ‫الجنوب‪ .‬فمد تضررت الفبات االجتماعٌة كثٌرا فً الشطر الجنوبً بشكل خاص‪ ،‬فلمد لجؤ نظام صنعاء إلى تسرٌح معظم الموات‬ ‫الجنوبٌة من الخدمة‪ ،‬وعدم صرؾ مستحمات التماعد‪ ،‬كما استحوذ الشمالٌون على المناصب اإلدارٌة فً المحافظات الجنوبٌة‪،‬‬ ‫وساءت األوضاع اإللتصادٌة والصحٌة والتعلٌمٌة‪ ،‬وهكذا ازداد التذمر والنممة فً أجزاء الٌمن كافة‪.‬‬ ‫لهذا كان من الطبٌعً أن تموم المطالبات الثابرة واالحتجاجات منذ فترة كبٌرة فً الجنوب‪ ،‬الذي أدى بدوره إلى ظهور التطرؾ‬ ‫والعنؾ بصورة ؼٌر مسبولة‪ ،‬خاصة بعد أحداث ‪ 11‬سبتمبر ‪ ،2001‬وبعد لجوء كثٌر من أنصار «الماعدة» فً أفؽانستان إلً‬ ‫الٌمن فٌما بعد‪.‬‬

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‫أما المحافظات الشمالٌة‪ ،‬فمد تدهورت أوضاعها االلتصادٌة و االجتماعٌة وكثر فٌها عملٌات النهب والسلب واالختطاؾ وتهرٌب‬ ‫األسلحة‪ ،‬وانخراط المبابل فً هذا النزاع‪ ،‬وذلن أحاط بمشكلة الٌمن البعد الدولً واإلللٌمً‪ ،‬مع تزاٌد النفوذ اإلٌرانً وتدخل طهران‬ ‫ت اندالع التمرد فً محافظة صعدة الشمالٌة فً عام ‪ ،2004‬معمل‬ ‫الظاهر فً الشإون الداخلٌة فً الٌمن‪ ،‬وفً هذا السٌاق‪ ،‬لم ٌؤ ِ‬ ‫الحوثٌٌن‪ ،‬مصادفة‪ ،‬حٌث تطورت األحداث إلى مواجهات ولعت خاللها‪ ،‬ست حروب بٌن الحوثٌٌن والموات الحكومٌة منذ عام‬ ‫‪.4532004‬‬ ‫خامسا‪ :‬النظام السٌاسً‬ ‫نظام الحكم فً الٌمن لبل الثورة الٌمنٌة عام ‪ 2011‬ومنذ أعالن الوحدة عام ‪ 1990‬أخذ أشكاال عدة‪ ،‬فمع بداٌة الوحدة عام ‪1990‬‬ ‫كانت هٌبات السلطات العلٌا والتً شكلت بدون انتخابات كنتٌجة التفالٌة الوحدة هً الممثلة للٌمن الموحد لتباشر عملها حتى عام‬ ‫‪ 1993‬كفترة انتمالٌة‪.‬‬ ‫ونتٌجة النتخابات ‪ 1993‬تشكل اإلبتالؾ الثالثً فً الحكم بٌن المإتمر الشعبً العام والتجمع الٌمنً لإلصالح والحزب االشتراكً‬ ‫الٌمنً‪ ،‬ولد حاول الحزب االشتراكً الخروج عن الوحدة مما كان سببا فً اشتعال حرب ‪ 1994‬والتً انتهت بهزٌمته وتكرٌس‬ ‫الوحدة‪ ،‬وفً عام ‪ 1997‬أجرٌت االنتخابات النٌابٌة والتً أدت لفوز حزب المإتمر الشعبً باألؼلبٌة‪ ،‬وتم إجراء أول انتخابات‬ ‫رباسٌة مباشرة عام ‪ 1999‬وفاز بها على عبد هللا صالح‪.‬‬ ‫ومن هنا اعتمد نظام الٌمن الرسمً وهو نظام جمهوري تمثٌلً دٌممراطً ٌكون فٌه الربٌس رأس الدولة والمابد االعلى للموات‬ ‫المسلحة‪ ،‬وٌعٌن ربٌس الوزراء الذي ٌتولى السلطة التنفٌذٌة‪ ،‬ومجلس النواب الٌمنً هو سلطة تشرٌعٌة مستملة وفما للدستور‪.‬‬ ‫السلطة التنفٌذٌة‬‫ربٌس الجمهورٌة‪ :‬ربٌس الجمهورٌة هو رأس الدولة والمابد االعلً للموات المسلحة‪ ،‬وٌعٌن ربٌس الوزراء الذي ٌتولى سلطة‬ ‫التنفٌذ‪ ،‬وٌتم انتخابه وفمـا للدستـور‪ ،‬وٌعتبر ربٌسا للجمهورٌة من ٌحصل على األؼلبٌة المطلمة للذٌن شاركوا فً االنتخابات‪،‬‬ ‫وٌمارس صالحٌاته على الوجـه المبٌـن فً الدستــور‪ ،‬ومدة ربٌس الجمهورٌة سبع سنوات‪.‬‬ ‫مجلس الشورى الٌمنً‪ٌ :‬نشؤ بمرار من ربٌس الجمهورٌة‪ ،‬وٌتكون مجلس شورى من ذوى الخبرات والكفاءات والشخصٌات‬ ‫االجتماعٌة لتوسٌع لاعدة المشاركة فً الرأي واالستفادة من الكفاءات والخبرات الوطنٌة‪ ،‬ومن مهامه تمدٌم الرأي واالستشارة فً‬ ‫سٌاسات وخطط الدولة ورعاٌة الصحافة ومنظمات المجتمع المدنً وتمٌٌم السٌاسات االلتصادٌة والمالٌة واستعراض تمارٌر جهاز‬ ‫الرلابة والمحاسبة‪.‬‬ ‫السلطة التشرٌعٌة‬‫تمثل السلطة التشرٌعٌة فً الٌمن عن طرٌك مجلس النواب وهو الذي ٌمرر الموانٌن وٌمر السٌاسة العامة للدولة والخطة العامة‬ ‫للتنمٌة االلتصادٌة واالجتماعٌة والموازنة العامة والحساب الختامً‪ ،‬كما ٌمارس الرلابة على أعمال الهٌبة التنفٌذٌة على الوجه‬ ‫المبٌن فً الدستور‪ ،‬ومدة دورة مجلس النواب ‪ 6‬سنوات‪.‬‬ ‫السلطة المضائٌة‬‫وفما للدستور الٌمنً فإن المضاء سلطة مستملة لضابٌا ومالٌا وإدارٌا والنٌابة العامة هٌبة من هٌباته‪ ،‬وتتولى المحاكم الفصل فً‬ ‫جمٌع المنازعات والجرابم‪ ،‬والمضاة مستملون ال سلطان علٌهم فً لضابهم لؽٌر المانون وال ٌجوز ألٌة جهة وبؤٌة صورة التدخل فً‬ ‫‪ - http://goo.gl/LcRv8v‬تحدٌات الٌمنٌٌن‪ ،‬الشرق األوسط‪ 77 ،‬أكتوبر ‪،7002‬‬

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‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫المضاٌا أو فً شؤن من شبون العدالة وٌعتبر مثل هذا التدخل جرٌمة ٌعالب علٌها المانون‪ ،‬وال تسمط الدعـوى فٌهـا بالتمادم‪ ،‬ومن أهم‬ ‫المحاكم فً الٌمن المحكمة العلٌا‪.‬‬ ‫األحزاب السٌاسٌة‬‫عمب تحمٌك الوحدة الٌمنٌة بٌن شطري الٌمن الشمالً والجنوبً كان لحزب المإتمر الشعبً والحزب االشتراكً الهٌمنة الكبرى‬ ‫على الوضع الٌمنً وتدخل معهم حزب التجمع الٌمنً لإلصالح‪ ،‬ولكن عمب الحرب األهلٌة عام ‪ 1994‬خرج بعض أعضاء‬ ‫الحزب االشتراكً خارج الٌمن‪ ،‬كما أصبح حزب المإتمر الشعبً هو المهٌمن األكبر على الساحة الٌمنٌة ودابما ما فاز بؤؼلبٌة‬ ‫أعضاء مجلس النواب منذ انتخابات عام ‪ ،1997‬وتعد أهم االحزاب الٌمنٌة‪:‬‬ ‫ حزب المإتمر الشعبً الٌمنً‬‫ الحزب االشتراكً الٌمنً‬‫ حزب التجمع الٌمنً لإلصالح‬‫ حزب البعث العربً االشتراكً الٌمنً‬‫ حزب التضامن الٌمنً‬‫ التنظٌم الوحدوي الشعبً الناصري‬‫تحالف اللماء المشترن‬‫وهو التحالؾ الذي تؤسس فً عام ‪ ،2003‬وٌضم ‪ 6‬أحزاب ٌمنٌة‪ ،‬الهدؾ من رواء إنشاإه هو العمل على التنسٌك بٌن األحزاب‬ ‫الستة فً االنتخابات البرلمانٌة الٌمٌنة لضمان وصولها جمٌعا إلً مجلس النواب‪ ،‬وٌعد أبرز أحزاب التحالؾ حزب التجمع الٌمنً‬ ‫لإلصالح الذي ٌعتبر معبرا عن فكر اإلخوان المسلمٌن‪ ،‬والحزب االشتراكً‪ ،‬وبالرؼم من التعارض اإلٌدٌولوجً بٌن الحزبٌن إال‬ ‫أن التحالؾ بٌنهما فً إطار اللماء المشترن ال زال سارٌا‪.454‬‬ ‫سادسا‪ :‬الجماعات المعارضة والمسلحة‬ ‫ٌوجد فً الٌمن العدٌد من التٌارات المختلفة التوجهات‪ ،‬وتعود فكرة الجماعات فً الٌمن إلً األصل السٌاسً لكل جماعة منها‪،‬‬ ‫ومنها السلمً او المسلح وهً تؤتً كالتالً‪:‬‬ ‫الحوثٌون‬‫الحوثٌون هم جماعة تنتهج المذهب الزٌدي الشٌعً فً شمال الٌمن‪ ،‬وتعد الزٌدٌة هً المذهب الذي حكم الٌمن لرابة األلؾ عام حتى‬ ‫عام ‪ 1962‬م حٌث االنمالب على دولة اإلمامة وإعالن الجمهورٌة‪ ،‬ولكن لم ٌختفً نفوذ المذهب الزٌدي خاصة وإن نسبة كبٌرة من‬ ‫سكان الٌمن ٌعتنمون هذا المذهب‪ ،‬ومع المد السنً فً الٌمن والدعم السعودي لهذا األمر‪ ،‬بدأ أنصار الزٌدٌة أو بالتحدٌد (أنصار‬ ‫الحوثٌة) فً إنشاء مدرسة "دماج" لكً تدرس مذهبهم فً مدٌنة صعدة‪ ،‬وذلن فً ثمانٌنٌات المرن الماضً‪ ،‬ولد كان الظهور‬ ‫الرسمً لحركة الحوثٌون عام ‪1992‬م على ٌد "بدر الدٌن الحوثً" وابنه "حسٌن بدر الدٌن الحوثً" الذي ٌعد الزعٌم الروحً‬ ‫للجماعة ‪ ،‬وسمٌت فً بادئ األمر بحركة الشباب المإمن‪ ،‬ولد كان الهدؾ من إنشاإه إنذان هو تعزٌز التعلٌم الدٌنً فً محافظة‬ ‫صعدة‪.‬‬ ‫الحوثٌون لاموا بالدخول فً ست حروب مع نظام الربٌس السابك على عبدهللا صالح‪ ،‬وكانت بداٌة النزاع بٌنهما فً عام ‪ 2004‬م‪،‬‬ ‫وذلن عمب لتل الموات الحكومٌة لمإسس الجماعة "حسٌن بدر الدٌن الحوثً"‪ ،‬المعارن كانت دابما فً شمال البلد حٌث ٌرتكز‬ ‫‪ - http://goo.gl/XRQQ9E‬األزمة الٌمنٌة‪ ،‬منتدى البدابل العربً للدراسات‪ 02 ،‬أبرٌل ‪،7002‬‬

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‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫الحوثٌون فً محافظة صعدة وحجة والحدٌدة وأب والجوؾ‪ ،‬وفً الجولة السادسة واألخٌرة بٌن الطرفٌن تدخل طرفا ثالثا وهو‬ ‫المملكة العربٌة السعودٌة‪ ،‬وذلن بعد أن ادعى الحوثٌون أنهم كانوا ٌحاولون ضرب معسكر تابع للجٌش الٌمنً بالسعودٌة‪ ،‬وانتهت‬ ‫تلن الجولة من الحرب فً فبراٌر ‪ ،2010‬بعد أن أعلن صالح ولؾ إلطالق النٌران بشكل فردي‪ ،‬ووافك علٌه الحوثٌون وبشروطه‪.‬‬ ‫لٌكن بذلن فً ‪ 12‬فبراٌر من عام ‪ 2010‬لد توصل كال من الحكومة الٌمنٌة وجماعة الحوثٌٌن المتمردة إلً اتفاق لولؾ اطالق‬ ‫النار بٌن الجانبٌن فً الجولة السادسة من الحرب الطوٌلة بٌن الجانبٌن والتً استمرت لخمس سنوات‪ ،‬ولد كان نتٌجتها تدمٌر حٌاة‬ ‫مبات األالؾ من المدنٌٌن فً شمال الٌمن‪ ،‬حٌث ٌتمركز الحوثٌون‪.‬‬ ‫نشؤت عن الحروب بٌن الحوثٌون وعلً عبدهللا صالح الكثٌر من األضرارعلى المستوي اإلنسانً وؼٌره‪ ،‬ولكن لم تكن لتلن‬ ‫المعركة فً ذلن الولت االهتمام األمثل من المجتمع الدولً‪ ،‬أي لبل ثورات الربٌع العربً عام ‪.2011‬‬ ‫ولكن ٌظهر الملك على الدول المجاورة للٌمن من المد الحوثً بشكل كبٌر بسبب االتهامات التً تربط بٌن الحوثٌٌن والدعم اإلٌرانً‬ ‫لهم‪ ،‬ولد لعبت هذه اإلتهامات دورا فً الصحافة السعودٌة بصورة أساسٌة‪ ،‬ففً دٌسمبر ‪ ،2009‬أفادت صحٌفة "الشرق األوسط"‬ ‫اللندنٌة المملوكة لسعودٌٌن بؤن "كبار المسإولٌن" من "فٌلك الحرس الثوري اإلٌرانً" و "حزب هللا" اللبنانً اجتمعوا مع متمردٌن‬ ‫حوثٌٌن لتنسٌك العملٌات العسكرٌة ضد المملكة العربٌة السعودٌة‪ .‬وفً اآلونة األخٌرة‪ ،‬لمحت السعودٌة إلى وجود تورط إٌرانً فً‬ ‫المتال‪ ،‬مشٌرا إلى "أنه من ؼٌر الممكن أن ٌكون الحوثٌون لد حصلوا بؤنفسهم على األسلحة التً تم نشرها ضدهم‪ ،‬كما أعلنت‬ ‫صنعاء أنها صادرت سفٌنة إٌرانٌة كانت تنمل أسلحة مضادة للدبابات إلى الحوثٌٌن‪.‬‬ ‫وفً الجولة األخٌرة من الحرب والتً تدخلت فٌه السعودٌة‪ ،‬أدانت طهران تصرفات الرٌاض بسبب دخولها فً الحرب‪ ،‬ولكن لٌام‬ ‫الربٌس اإلٌرانً أحمدي نجاد بالدفاع عن الحوثٌٌن لم ٌكن مفاجبا‪ .‬فالحوثٌون ٌعلنون صراحة والءهم لطهران‪ ،‬كما إنه عندما سبل‬ ‫رجل الدٌن الحوثً عصام العماد عن الروابط بٌن إٌران والمتمردٌن‪ ،‬لال إن زعٌم الجماعة‪ ،‬حسٌن الحوثً‪ ،‬هو أشبه بزعٌم "حزب‬ ‫هللا" حسن نصر هللا فً لبنان‪.455‬‬ ‫الحران الجنوبً‬‫الحران الجنوبً فً الٌمن هو الحران الذي ٌدعو الستمالل الٌمن الجنوبٌة وذلن منذ الوحدة الٌمٌنة عام ‪1990‬م‪.‬‬ ‫عمب الوحدة الٌمنٌة عام ‪ 1990‬وعندما أتت االنتخابات عام ‪ 1993‬بدال من ترسٌخ الوحدة بٌن الشطرٌن‪ ،‬عززت االنتخابات‬ ‫النزعات االنفصالٌة بٌن الجانبٌٌنن حٌث الجنوب الذي انتخب بموة الحزب االشتراكً‪ ،‬والشمال الذي أنتخب حزب المإتمر الشعبً‬ ‫وحزب التجمع الٌمنً لإلصالح‪.‬‬ ‫تدهورت بعد ذلن العاللات بٌن الحزب االشتراكً الٌمنً والمإتمر الشعبً العام حول المضاٌا بما فً ذلن سرعة ومدى التكامل بٌن‬ ‫الجٌشٌن بعد الوحدة مثل نمل ألوٌة من الشمال للجنوب ومن الجنوب للشمال‪ ،‬ولكن فً الحمٌمة لم ٌحدث اتحاد بٌن الجٌشٌن فمد كانت‬ ‫تحدث تنافرات واشتباكات من الحٌن لألخر‪ ،‬كذلن لم ٌتحمك اإلصالح البٌرولراطً والمضابً‪ ،‬وتدابٌر لمكافحة الفساد واإلرهاب‪،‬‬ ‫وهو ما أدى بالطبع إلً لٌام الحرب األهلٌة عام ‪ ،1994‬والتً انتهت بهزٌمة الحزب االشتراكً ممثل الجنوبٌٌن‪.‬‬ ‫وٌعتبر الجنوبٌٌن إن تلن الهزٌمة لد تكون بداٌة النخفاض حاد فً حمولهم االلتصادٌة وبداٌة لتهمٌش أكبر للجنوبٌٌن فً الٌمن‬ ‫الموحد من جانب الشمالٌٌن‪ ،‬ولم ٌتم إصالح األضرار الناجمة عن الحرب واستمرت عملٌات السلب والنهب للمصانع فً الجنوب‬ ‫عن طرٌك نظام الربٌس صالح‪ ،‬ومع ذلن فمد ذكر المإرخون أن التصاد الٌمن الجنوبً االشتراكً سابما كان بالفعل ٌعانً من‬ ‫انخفاض حاد لبل الحرب‪.‬‬

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‫‪ - http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/ar/policy-analysis/view/whos‬من ٌمؾ وراء الحوثٌٌن‪ ،‬معهد واشنطن‪ 77 ،‬فبراٌر ‪،7000‬‬‫‪behind-the-houthis‬‬

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‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫باإلضافة إلً إن وفما لبعض التمارٌر االلتصادٌة فإن عوابد النفط الجنوبٌة ؼالبا ما تذهب أرباحها إلً الشمالٌٌن الممربٌن من‬ ‫الربٌس السابك للٌمن الموحد "على عبدهللا صالح"‪ ،456‬كما إن السلطات فً صنعاء لد لامت بعد حرب ‪ 1994‬بتسرٌح االالؾ من‬ ‫العسكرٌٌن الجنوبٌٌن وموظفً الخدمة المدنٌة الجنوبٌٌن وحل محلهم الشمالٌٌن‪.‬‬ ‫ونتٌجة لما ٌعانٌها الجنوبٌٌن‪ ،‬عندما حل عام ‪ 2007‬بدأت المحافظات الجنوبٌة فً الخروج فً مظاهرات احتجاجا على تدنً‬ ‫الرواتب والمعاشات‪ ،‬والمطالبة بالمزٌد من المساوة والالمركزٌة‪ ،‬ولاد تلن المظاهرات ضباط الجٌش الجنوبً السابمٌٌن الذٌن‬ ‫تماعدوا بالموة فً الماضً‪ ،‬وسرعان ما لفتت تلن المظاهرات أنظار العدٌد من األحزاب الجنوبٌة وفً ممدمتها الحزب االشتراكً‬ ‫بكافة لٌادته‪ ،‬وكذلن شٌوخ المبابل‪ ،‬ولد أعطى هذا المزٌج الجنوبً العوامل الربٌسٌة التى أدت إلً والدة الحران الجنوبً‪ ،‬وهو‬ ‫تحالؾ من مختلؾ الجماعات التً اكتسبت تؤٌٌدا واسعا فً المجتمع الجنوبً الٌمنً‪ ،‬وتصاعدت مطالبها لدعوات االنفصال التام‬ ‫وإعادة تؤسٌس دولة مستملة فً الجنوب‪ ،‬ومنذ بدء االحتجاجات فً عام ‪ ،2007‬ولد أصر الحران الجنوبً على االحتجاج السلمً‪،‬‬ ‫ورفض استخدام المماومة المسلحة فً تحمٌك أهدافه‪.‬‬ ‫الماعدة‬‫هً الجماعات األرهابٌة التً تتواجد فً جنوب الٌمن وتتؤلؾ من المجندٌن العابدٌن من أفؽانستان والعراق وؼٌرها من البلدان‪ ،‬ولد‬ ‫ركزت تلن الجماعات على محاوالت فاشلة لمصؾ بعض الطابرات األمرٌكٌة وتدمٌر أهداؾ فً المملكة العربٌة السعودٌة‪ ،‬وتعتمد‬ ‫تلن الجماعات بشكل دابم على انشؽال الحكومة الٌمنٌة باالضطرابات فً المدن الكبرى وبالتالً تموم باإلستٌالء على بعض المدن‬ ‫الجنوبٌة وخاصة مدن عدن وحضرموت وشبوة التً توفر أرضا خصبة لهم على عكس الحكومة الٌمنٌة التً تلمً المتاعب فٌها‪.‬‬ ‫ومن أهم عملٌات الماعدة التً تمت بالفعل وألحمت الخسابر تدمٌر المدمرة األمرٌكٌة "ٌو أس أس كوول" فً مٌناء عدن أثناء‬ ‫تزودها بالولود فً أكتوبر عام ‪ ،2000‬وكذلن الهجوم على ناللة النفط الفرنسٌة "لٌمبورغ" عام ‪.2002‬‬ ‫تمكن ناصر الوحٌشً من لٌادة تنظٌم الماعدة‪ ،‬ولد وجد التنظٌم بؽٌته فً الٌمن بسبب توافر معظم عناصر النجاح السببٌة‪ ،‬وبعد‬ ‫هروب ‪ 23‬من لٌادات التنظٌم من السجن السٌاسً فً صنعاء فً ‪ 3‬فبراٌر ‪ ،2006‬بدأ تنظٌم الماعدة مرحلة جدٌدة اتسمت‬ ‫بالتخطٌط والتنظٌم‪ ،‬وفً مطلع عام ‪ ،2009‬أعلن عن تؤسٌس لٌادة جدٌدة للتنظٌم تحت مسمى "تنظٌم الماعدة فً جزٌرة العرب"‪،‬‬ ‫وتحولت استراتٌجٌة الماعدة من الدفاع إلى الهجوم‪.457‬‬ ‫سابعا‪ :‬العاللات الخارجٌة‬ ‫الوالٌات المتحدة األمرٌكٌة‬‫العاللات السٌاسٌة والدبلوماسٌة بٌن الٌمن والوالٌات المتحدة تعود إلً عام ‪ 1946‬حٌث اعترفت الوالٌات المتحدة بالٌمن كمملكة‬ ‫مستملة‪ ،‬وذلن عندما وافمت الوالٌات المتحدة والٌمن على ارسال البعثة الدبلوماسٌة األمرٌكٌة الخاصة إلى المملكة الٌمنٌة‪ ،‬وفً عام‬ ‫‪ 1959‬تم انشاء المفوضٌة األمرٌكٌة فً تعز العاصمة المدٌمة‪ ،‬ثم ارتفع التمثٌل إلً أن تحول المفوضٌة إلً سفارة عام ‪.1963‬‬ ‫نمل ممر السفارة فٌما بعد ذلن عام ‪ 1966‬إلً صنعاء عاصمة الٌمن الشمالٌة‪ ،‬ثم فً عام ‪ 1967‬ألٌمت عاللات رسمٌة بٌن‬ ‫الوالٌات المتحدة والٌمن الجنوبٌة وفً نفس العام انشؤت السفارة االمرٌكٌة فً عدن عاصمة الٌمن الجنوبٌة‪.‬‬

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‫‪457‬‬

‫ الٌمن‪ ،‬خلفٌة سٌاسٌة وعاللات مع الوالٌات المتحدة‪ ،‬اتحاد العلماء األمرٌكٌٌن‪ 00 ،‬فبراٌر ‪،7002‬‬‫‪https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL34170.pdf‬‬

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‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫ولطعت العاللات بٌن الوالٌات المتحدة وشطري الٌمن المنمسمٌن فً فترة وجٌزة‪ ،‬حٌث لطعت الٌمن الشمالٌة عاللتها بالوالٌات‬ ‫المتحدة عام ‪ 1967‬فً اعماب الصراع العربً االسرابٌلً‪ ،‬وعادت مرة اخري عام ‪ ،1972‬بٌنما لطعت العاللات بٌن الوالٌات‬ ‫المتحدة والٌمن الجنوبٌة عام ‪ 1969‬بسبب توجه الجنوبٌٌن نحو االتحاد السوفٌتً وتبنً الماركسٌة‪ ،‬ولذلن استمرت المطٌعة حتى‬ ‫عام ‪ ،1990‬وعادت بعد أعالن الوحدة الٌمنٌة بٌن الشمال والجنوب واعلنت الجمهورٌة الٌمنٌة‪.458‬‬ ‫بعد الوحدة الٌمنٌة توترت العاللات بٌن امرٌكا والٌمن عمب الؽزو العرالً للكوٌت‪ ،‬حٌث رفضت الٌمن استخدام الحل العسكري‬ ‫ضد العراق‪ ،‬وعلٌه لامت الوالٌات المتحدة بمطع العاللات مع الٌمن والمساعدات بكافة أشكالها‪ ،‬وظلت العاللات متوترة حتى عام‬ ‫‪ 1994‬حٌث اتخذت الوالٌات المتحدة مولفا حٌادٌا من الحرب االهلٌة فً الٌمن واعلنت أنه شؤنا داخلٌا‪.‬‬ ‫وتطورت بعد ذلن العاللات الٌمٌنة االمرٌكٌة بشكال كبٌر بعد هذا التارٌخ حٌث دعمت الوالٌات المتحدة جهود الٌمن للوصول‬ ‫للدٌممراطٌة وحرٌة الصحافة‪ ،‬ودعمت االصالحات االلتصادٌة هنان‪ ،‬حتى حادثة تفجٌر المدمرة االمرٌكٌة كوول فً مٌناء عدن‬ ‫عام ‪ ،2000‬حٌث اتهمت امرٌكا السلطات الٌمنٌة بعدم التعاون‪ ،‬ولكن عادة العاللات عمب احداث ‪ 11‬سبتمبر عام ‪ 2001‬حٌث‬ ‫لام الربٌس الٌمنً السابك على عبدهللا صالح بعدة زٌارات إلً امرٌكا‪ ،‬وكان اهمها زٌارة ما بعد احداث ‪ 11‬من سبتمبر الذي‬ ‫استنكر فٌها الهجوم واعلن استعداد بالده للتعاون من اجل المضاء على االرهاب‪ ،‬ولد وصلت العاللات بٌن البلدٌن إلً ذروتها عندما‬ ‫اعلنت امرٌكا إن حجم مساعداتها للٌمن لد بلػ ‪ 121‬ملٌون دوالر‪.459‬‬ ‫ولكن بالرؼم من التعاون االمنً بٌن البلدٌن فً مجال مكافحة االرهاب إال أن العدٌد من المسإولٌن السٌاسٌن فً الوالٌات المتحدة‬ ‫تحدثت عن إن جهود الٌمن لمكافحة اإلرهاب ؼٌر كافٌة‪ ،‬وذلن وفما لتمارٌر صدرت عام ‪ 2007‬من وزارة الخارجٌة األمرٌكٌة‬ ‫حول اإلرهاب ٌمول "على الرؼم من تارٌخ الٌمن فً نشاط مكافحة اإلرهاب والعروض المتكررة من المساعدات الممدمة من‬ ‫الحكومة األمرٌكٌة‪ ،‬إال أن الٌمن تفتمر لمانون شامل لمكافحة اإلرهاب‪ .‬المانون الحالً والمطبك على مكافحة االرهاب كان‬ ‫ضعٌفا"‪.460‬‬ ‫كما إن الٌمن مازالت تحوي العدٌد من المطلوبٌن لدى العدالة االمرٌكٌة وترفض الحكومة تسلٌمهم بشكل واضح رؼم اتهامهم فً‬ ‫عدة لضاٌا‪.‬‬ ‫المملكة العربٌة السعودٌة‬‫تعود العاللات الٌمنٌة السعودٌة إلً عام ‪ ،1932‬حٌث كان ٌرى ملن السعودٌة عبد العزٌز وخلفاإه من بعده وكذلن إمام الٌمن فً‬ ‫الما ضً إن لوة كال منهما تموم على ضعؾ االخر‪ ،‬فرأت السعودٌة إن بماء الٌمن ضعٌفا هو الضامن لموتها‪ ،‬ولد تجلى هذا بداٌة من‬ ‫إعالن المملكة الٌمنٌة الحرب على جارتها الشمالٌة والتً كانت لد ظهرت منذ عاما واحدا فمط بعد اتحاد العدٌد من المدن وتكوٌن‬ ‫المملكة السعودٌة وذلن بسبب نزاع حدودي بٌن المملكتٌن‪ ،‬وبعد الحرب تمكنت السعودٌة من االستٌالء على ‪ 3‬مدن وهً عسٌر‬ ‫وجٌزان ونجران‪ ،‬وتنازلت الٌمن عن المدن المحتلة الثالثة فً معاهدة الطابؾ عام ‪ 1934‬وتم ترسٌم الحدود‪ ،‬وظلت االمور هادبة‬ ‫بٌن البلدٌن حتى عام ‪.1962‬‬ ‫فً عام ‪ 1962‬أُطٌح باإلمام الٌمنً األخٌر‪ ،‬دمحم البدر‪ ،‬وتؤسست الجمهورٌة الٌمنٌة‪ ،‬وبدأت فترة توترات جدٌدة مع السعودٌة‪ ،‬حٌث‬ ‫اعتبر ألطاب الجمهورٌة الٌمنٌة إن معاهدة الطابؾ باطلة واشتد االمر بعد ارسال مصر جٌشها لمحاربة عصابات االمام فً الٌمن‪،‬‬ ‫وبالتالً دعمت السعودٌة االمام حتى عام ‪ ،1968‬وبعد انتهاء الحرب اعترفت السعودٌة بالٌمن الشمالً عام ‪ 1970‬ولدمت له‬ ‫الدعم المالً‪.‬‬

‫‪458‬‬

‫‪ - http://yemen.usembassy.gov/usyemenhis.html‬تارٌخ العاللات األمرٌكٌة الٌمنٌة‪،‬السفارة األمرٌكٌة بصنعاء‪،‬‬ ‫‪ - http://www.yemenembassy.org/issues/ymusrelshp/index.htm‬العاللات الٌمنٌة األمرٌكٌة‪ ،‬السفارة الٌمنٌة بواشنطن‪،‬‬ ‫‪460‬‬ ‫‪ - https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RS21808.pdf‬تمرٌر الخارجٌة األمرٌكٌة عن الٌمن‪ ،‬اتحاد العلماء األمرٌكٌٌن‪ٌ 2 ،‬ناٌر ‪،7002‬‬ ‫‪459‬‬

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‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫ظل االمر بالسعودٌة ودولتً الٌمن الشمالٌة والجنوبٌة هادبا تمام‪ ،‬حتى تولٌع اعالن الوحدة الٌمنٌة عام ‪ 1990‬حٌث خشٌت المملكة‬ ‫السعودٌة من زٌادة نفوذ الٌمن الموحد‪ ،‬وزاد رفض الٌمن الستعمال الموة مع العراق عمب ؼزوها للكوٌت ؼضب السعودٌٌن أكثر‬ ‫والذٌن كانوا من أكثر الدول المإٌدة الستعمال الموة ضد العراق بعد ؼزو الكوٌت إلمكانٌة تمدم الموات العرالٌة نحو الحدود‬ ‫السعودٌة بعد االستٌالء على الكوٌت‪ ،‬فتم تسرٌح مبات االالؾ من العمال الٌمنٌن فً السعودٌة مما أثر على التصاد الٌمن‪ ،‬وكان من‬ ‫أهم أسباب لٌام الحرب األهلٌة بٌن حكومة الوحدة الٌمنٌة وبعض االنفصالٌن الجنوبٌٌن عام ‪ ،1994‬ولد لامت السعودٌة بدعم‬ ‫الجنوبٌٌن بالذخابر فً تلن الحرب‪ ،‬وبعد انتهاء الحرب دعمت السعودٌة حكومة الوحدة مرة اخرى‪.‬‬ ‫وبعد ثبات العاللات نوعا ما بٌن الٌمن والسعودٌة‪ ،‬وجدت المملكة فً نمو الحوثٌٌن خطرا كبٌرا علٌها‪ ،‬فبدأت فً التسعٌنٌات زٌادة‬ ‫كبٌرة فً الفكر الوهابً السعودي فً شمال الٌمن حٌث ٌمكث الحوثٌون‪ ،‬ومن هنا بدأ الحوثٌون أٌضا فً تدعٌم أفكارهم‪ ،‬ومع بداٌة‬ ‫حروب الحوثٌون مع الحكومة الٌمنٌة رأت السعودٌة إن الحركة تشكل خطرا علٌها فمامت فً عام ‪ 2009‬فاشتركت السعودٌة فً‬ ‫تلن الجولة من الحرب مع الحكومة الٌمنٌة ضد الحوثٌٌن‪.461‬‬ ‫إٌران‬‫العاللات الٌمنٌة اإلٌرانٌة بدأت منذ عهد الشاه اإلٌرانً دمحم رضا بهلوي الذي أخذ ٌدعم المماتلٌن الٌمنٌٌن ضد المركسٌٌن المتشددٌن‬ ‫هنان فً ستٌنٌات المرن الماضً‪ ،‬ولكن مع الثورة اإلٌرناٌة عام ‪ 1979‬أخذت العاللات بٌن البلدٌن تؤخذ شكلها الودي‪ ،‬بل وزادت‬ ‫العاللات أكثر بعد انتهاء الحرب االٌرانٌة – العرالٌة فً بداٌة التسعٌنٌات‪ ،‬وعملت إٌران على استٌعاب الطلبة الحوثٌون لدٌها‪،‬‬ ‫والذي كان منهم بدر الدٌن الحوثً صاحب التمرد الحوثً فً الٌمن ضد الحكومة‪ ،‬وفً عام ‪ 2008‬أعلنت الٌمن دعمها إلٌران فً‬ ‫حمها فً امتالن برنامج نووي سلمً‪.‬‬ ‫مجلس التعاون الخلٌجً‬‫سعت الٌمن مرارا إلً االنضمام لمجلس التعاون الخلٌجً الذي تؤسس عام ‪ 1981‬والذي ٌضم فً عضوٌته ست دول وهً‪:‬‬ ‫(السعودٌة – الكوٌت – االمارات – عمان – لطر – البحرٌن)‪ ،‬وهذا ألجل االستفادة من المزاٌا االلتصادٌة الخاصة به وكذلن‬ ‫العسكرٌة المتمثلة فً لوات درع الجزٌرة‪ ،‬وكانت اول المحاوالت الٌمنٌة عام ‪ ،1996‬ولكنها لوبلت بالرفض بسبب وجود نزاع‬ ‫حدودي بٌن الٌمن والسعودٌة‪ ،‬وكذلن توتر العاللات بٌن صنعاء والكوٌت بسبب مولؾ الٌمن على خلفٌة ؼزو العراق للكوٌت عام‬ ‫‪.1990‬‬ ‫ولكن فً لمة دول مجلس التعاون الخلٌجً عام ‪ 2000‬نجحت الٌمن فً الحصول على انتصار نوعً بعد حصولها على عضوٌة‬ ‫مجلس التعاون الخلٌجً لبعض الهٌبات فمط مثل هٌبة المواصفات والمماٌٌس والمكتب التنفٌذي للصحة والتربٌة‪ ،‬وذلن بعد أن‬ ‫أبرمت الٌمن والسعودٌة معاهدة الحدود الدولٌة فً جدة فً نفس العام‪ ،‬وإعادة فتح الٌمن لسفارته فً الكوٌت‪.462‬‬ ‫ال شن بؤن وجود الٌمن مع دول مجلس التعاون الخلٌجً سٌشكل لوة استراتٌجٌة لوٌة وعظٌمة للدول الخلٌجٌة و مصالحها‬ ‫االلتصادٌة و السٌاسٌة بصورة عامة و شاملة‪ ،‬ولكن كما ٌوجد إٌجابٌات إلنضمامها ٌوجد كذلن سلبٌات‪.‬‬ ‫إن انضمام الٌمن إلى مجلس التعاون له استنتاجات و دالبل و دالالت استراتٌجٌة حول المصالح االلتصادٌة النفطٌة لدول المجلس‪،‬‬ ‫وبالتالً أن التعاون اإلستراتٌجً بٌن دول المجلس والٌمن ستحمك لكافة دول المنطمة تؤمٌن مصدر أساسً وآمن إلمكانٌة نمل‬ ‫اإلمدادات النفطٌة الخلٌجٌة إلى دول العالم دون مضرة‪ ،‬ودور الٌمن أساسً ومهم لإلسهام فً التملٌل من المخاطر المحتملة التً لد‬ ‫تتعرض لها خطوط نمل النفط الخلٌجً إلى األسواق العالمٌة‪ ،‬وهنان جانب آخر بالػ األهمٌة وهو ضرورة لٌام التكتل الخلٌجً‬ ‫‪461‬‬

‫‪ - http://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jun/05/yemen-saudi-arabia‬العاللات الٌمنٌة السعودٌة‪ ،‬الجاردٌان‪ٌ 2 ،‬ونٌو ‪،7000‬‬‫‪influence‬‬ ‫‪462‬‬ ‫‪ - https://www.gcc-sg.org/index5dc0.html‬الجمهورٌة الٌمنٌة‪ ،‬مجلس التعوان لدول الخلٌج العربٌة‪،‬‬

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‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫بإعداد لوة عسكرٌ ة كبٌرة تتكفل بحماٌة أمن واستمرار دول المنطمة من أٌة تهدٌدات خطٌرة‪ ،‬كما تجنبها االستنزاؾ المستمر للموارد‬ ‫المالٌة جراء التكلفة الباهظة لتواجد الموات العسكرٌة األجنبٌة فً الخلٌج والجزٌرة العربٌة وما ٌمثله ذلن من خسارة كبٌرة‪.‬‬ ‫إضافة إلى أن ذلن التواجد العسكري كان سببا فً تزاٌد التوتر فً المنطمة‪ ،‬واالحتجاجات داخل دول مجلس التعاون الخلٌجً‪،‬‬ ‫واالعتراضات اإلللٌمٌة المتكررة‪ ،‬وانطاللا من ذلن تتضح أهمٌة وجود التكتل الذي ٌضم الٌمن ودول الخلٌج‪ ،‬وضرورة لٌام تحالؾ‬ ‫إللٌمً متجانس ٌشكل من الموات الٌمنٌة والخلٌجٌة كمثل "لوات درع الجزٌرة" لتصبح لوة مشتركة لادرة ومتطورة‪ ،‬بحٌث ٌبنى‬ ‫على أساس المصلحة المشتركة لشعوب وبلدان المنطمة لتظل آمنة ومستمرة‪.‬‬ ‫ومن الناحٌة االلتصادٌة من المعروؾ أن هنان اعتمادا أساسٌا على العمالة األجنبٌة خصوصا اآلسٌوٌة فً دول الخلٌج التً أحدثت‬ ‫وجودها المتزاٌد خلال فً التركٌبة السكانٌة للمجتمعات الخلٌجٌة المتضررة‪ ،‬إضافة إلى نشوء العدٌد من المشكالت االجتماعٌة‬ ‫وااللتصادٌة‪ ،‬وظهور بعض العادات والسلوكٌات الؽرٌبة على تلن المجتمعات‪ ،‬وكذلن جهل الهوٌة واللؽة العربٌة‪ ،‬وتلن بالفعل‬ ‫مشكالت ؼٌر هٌنة وجدٌرة باالهتمام‪ ،‬ولذلن ٌمكن استفادة دول الخلٌج من العمالة الٌمنٌة بشكل كبٌر ألفضلٌتها على العمالة‬ ‫اآلسٌوٌة العتبارات عدة‪ ،‬أهمها األسباب االلتصادٌة والثمافٌة والدٌنٌة واللؽوٌة وأسباب أخرى كثٌرة‪ ،‬وذلن ما ٌإكده بعض خبراء‬ ‫االلتصاد فً دول الخلٌج‪ ،‬كما ٌإكدون أٌضا بؤن األفضل لدول مجلس التعاون دعم التصاد الٌمن واالستعانة بالعمالة الٌمنٌة من أجل‬ ‫الحفاظ على موارد هذه الدول والحد من استنزافها‪ ،463‬ومنها على سبٌل المثال الحجم الهابل لتحوٌالت العملة األجنبٌة النمدٌة‬ ‫الوفٌرة‪ ،‬وبدال من تحوٌل الملٌارات من العمالت األجنبٌة (الدوالر) سنوٌا إلى خارج منطمة الخلٌج بصورة مستمرة‪ ،‬لتظل تلن‬ ‫الموارد تدور فً نطاق منطمة الجزٌرة والخلٌج حفاظا علٌها من الهجرة‪.‬‬ ‫وعلى الجانب األخر ٌجد البعض سلبٌات لها تؤثٌر شاسع‪ ،‬ولد تكون مكلفة وباهظة‪ ،‬حٌث إن البعض ٌخشى إن دخول الٌمن للمجلس‬ ‫لد ٌإدي للكثٌر من المشاكل‪ ،‬حٌث إن عاصفة الحزم وحدها التً شارن فٌها الدول الخلٌجٌة كان لها أثر فادح على دول الخلٌج‬ ‫عامة والسعودٌة خاصة بجانب االتفالٌة النووٌة على موازٌن الموة والعاللات بٌن البلدان الكبرى‪ ،‬وخاصة كال من السعودٌة واٌران‬ ‫والوالٌات المتحدة وروسٌا أٌضا التً دخلت المعادلة وبموة‪.‬‬ ‫ٌعد إعمار الٌمن كدولة صدٌمة للمجلس لن ٌكون مثل إعمارها كدولة عضوة فٌه‪ ،‬وبرؼم إن االلتصاد الٌمنً ٌعتمد بشكل ربٌسً‬ ‫على المعونات الخلٌجٌة والتحوٌالت النمدٌة للعمالة الٌمنٌة فً الخلٌج وفً السعودٌة خاصة‪ ،‬ولكن بعد إنضمام الٌمن للمجلس لد‬ ‫ٌكون األمر مضاعفا وشالا على االلتصاد الخلٌجً الذي ٌعانً التصادٌا بالفعل فً الفترة األخٌرة‪.‬‬ ‫ا ما من الناحٌة السٌاسٌة فال شن إن الٌمن لطالما كانت لها صراعات مع دول الخلٌج فً الماضً‪ ،‬ولكن فً الحاضر فإن األزمة‬ ‫الٌمنٌة لم تخلك مشكلة بٌن الٌمن ودول الخلٌج كالمعتاد‪ ،‬ولكن بٌن دول الخلٌج والدول الكبرى وعلى رأسها الوالٌات المتحدة‪،‬‬ ‫وؼٌرت نوعا من التحالفات السٌاسٌة الكبرى فً المنطمة وللبت موازٌنها‪ ،‬ولٌس بعٌدا عن أعٌن المرالبٌٌن السٌاسٌن التمارب‬ ‫الخلٌجً – الروسً على حساب عاللات الخلٌج بؤمرٌكا عمب عاصفة الحزم‪ ،‬والتً تدل على تؽٌر ملحوظ فً توجهات الخلٌج‪.‬‬ ‫ثامنا‪ :‬الثورة الٌمنٌة‬ ‫أسباب لٌام الثورة‬‫لبل لٌام الثورة الٌمنٌة كان ٌوجد العدٌد من األسباب التً تكمن وراء تلن االنتفاضة ضد الربٌس على عبدهللا صالح والذي ظل على‬ ‫ممعد الرباسة طٌلة ‪ 42‬عاما منذ تولٌه رباسة الٌمن الشمالً عام ‪ 1978‬مرورا بالٌمن الموحد عام ‪ ،1990‬وحتى عام ‪،2011‬‬ ‫وتعد من أهم األسباب الربٌسٌة لمٌام الثورة‪:‬‬

‫‪ - http://goo.gl/VU2GDC‬الٌمن ومجلس التعاون الخلٌجً‪ ،‬الشرق األوسط‪ 72 ،‬فبراٌر ‪،7002‬‬

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‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫‪ -1‬األوضاع السٌاسٌة و المطالبة المستمرة باإلصالح الدستوري وتهمٌش أحزاب المعارضة وطول فترة بماء الحزب الحاكم "حزب‬ ‫المإتمر الشعبً" فً السلطة عن طرٌك عبدهللا صالح أكثر من ‪ 40‬عاما‪ ،‬وزٌادة المطالبة بتحمٌك الدٌممراطٌة‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -2‬انتشار البطالة والتً وصلت إلً ‪ %35‬بٌن الشبان الٌمنٌٌن‪ ،‬ووجود نحو ‪ %40‬من سكان الٌمن ٌعٌشون تحت خط الفمر‪ ،‬وهذا‬ ‫ظهر مع زٌادة الممع فً الجنوب مع وجود حركات التمرد هنان‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -3‬سٌطرة عابلة الربٌس عبدهللا صالح على المناصب المٌادٌة وفكرة التورٌث فً النظام‪ ،‬ولد كانت إلالة ألارب الربٌس من أهم‬ ‫مطالب شباب الثورة الٌمنٌة‪ ،‬حٌث لد لام صالح بتعٌن نحو ‪ 40‬فرد من ألاربه فً مراكز لٌادٌة مهمة فً الجٌش واألمن‪ ،‬منها‬ ‫الحرس الخاص والحرس الجمهوري والموات الجوٌة والبحرٌة والبرٌة والدفاع الجوي والفرلة أولى مدرعة وحرس الحدود إلى‬ ‫جانب األمن المركزي واألمن المومً ولٌادة المعسكرات والمناصب اإلدارٌة‪.464‬‬ ‫‪ -4‬تزاٌد الثروات االلتصادٌة لصالح وعابلته‪ ،‬ولد تفاوتت ثروة صالح منفردا دون عابلته بٌن ‪ 50 – 40‬ملٌار دوالر أمرٌكً‪،‬‬ ‫موزعة على شكل أرصدة بنكٌة خاصة واستثمارات متنوعة ولصور فارهة ومنتجعات وشالٌهات سٌاحٌة فً مختلؾ دول العالم‬

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‫‪ -5‬لٌام الثورات العربٌة فً كال من تونس ومصر مع بداٌة العام ‪ ،2011‬مما ألهم الشباب الٌمنً‪.‬‬ ‫أحداث الثورة‬‫مع لٌام الثورات العربٌه عام ‪ 2011‬فى تونس ثم مصر ازدادت و تصاعدت حدة االحتجاجات بٌن صالح والمعارضة مما أدي إلً‬ ‫اندالع الثورة الٌمنٌة فً ‪ 3‬من فبراٌر عام ‪ ،2011‬وهو ما دفع صالح الى تمدٌم عدة تنازالت لكنها لم ترضً الشباب‪.‬‬ ‫ظلت الثورة فً أٌامها االولى تتصاعد لوتها تدرٌجٌا حتى وصلت إلً ذروتها فً ٌوم ‪ 11‬من فبراٌر حٌث انتفض الشباب بموة‬ ‫ومعهم لوى المجتمع المدنً وأنصار المعارضة والحران الجنوبً‪ ،‬ولكن تم مواجهة مظاهرات الؽضب بمظاهرات مإٌدة للنظام‪،‬‬ ‫وفً االٌام التالٌة لامت لوات االمن بمنع المعارضٌن من التوجه صوب المصر الجمهوري‪ ،‬ومع سرعة األحداث أعلنت أحزاب‬ ‫تكتل اللماء المشترن المعارضة عن الترحٌب بخطاب صالح بشرط تجمٌد الدستور والؽاء لانون االنتخابات ومشاركة جمٌع‬ ‫األطراؾ فً الحوار‪.‬‬ ‫لم تإثر االحتججات على صالح‪ ،‬بل إنه أعلن رفضه الرحٌل إال عبر صنادٌك االنتخاب‪ ،‬فتم البدء فً إلامة اعتصام ضخم من لبل‬ ‫طالب جامعة صنعاء‪ ،‬وانضم الحوثٌٌن فً المظاهرات‪ ،‬وشهدت العاصمة اول لتٌل ٌوم ‪ 22‬من فبراٌر‪ ،‬وفً تطور ملحوظ للتعامل‬ ‫األمنً لامت دبابات للجٌش بمصؾ تظاهرة للحوثٌٌن بالمذابؾ‪.‬‬ ‫زادت بعد ذلن سلسلة المنضمٌن للثورة‪ ،‬حٌث لام ‪ 9‬من نواب الحزب الحاكم بتمدٌم استمالتهم وانضموا للمتظاهرٌن‪ ،‬كذلن انضم‬ ‫عدد من الوزراء للمظاهرات بعد تمدٌمهم إلستمالتهم‪ ،‬وكذلن النابب العام الٌمنً والعدٌد من السفراء وبعض المادة الضباط‪ ،‬ومنهم‬ ‫الشٌخ صادق األحمر‪ ،‬كما لام ‪ 28‬فردا من أفراد الموات الخاصة الٌمنٌة باالنضمام للمعارضة وكذلن نمابٌون ومهنٌون ومنظمات‬ ‫المجتمع المدنً والمبابل‪ ،‬وفً ٌوم الجمعة ‪ 18‬من مارس لتل ما ٌمرب من ‪ 52‬شخص بٌنما جرح ‪ 617‬أخرون بعد انتهاء صالة‬ ‫الجمعة‪.‬‬ ‫فً بداٌة االحداث لال صالح إن "الثورات العربٌة ما هً إال ثورات إعالمٌة تمودها واشنطن من تل أبٌب"‪ ،‬وهو ما أزعج االدارة‬ ‫االمرٌكٌة‪ ،‬ولكنه سرعان ما عاد لٌصحح ذان التصرٌح‪ ،‬كما حثت الوالٌات المتحدة المعارضة على االصؽاء للربٌس صالح‪ ،‬ولكن‬ ‫تؽٌر المولؾ االمرٌكً بالكامل عمب احداث ‪ 4‬أبرٌل والتً لتل فٌها ‪ 19‬مواطن واصٌب ‪ ،800‬حٌث طلبت اإلدارة األمٌركٌة من‬ ‫الربٌس صالح التنحً‪ ،‬وأعلنت أمٌركا أنها جمدت مساعدات للٌمن لدرت بنحو ‪ 200‬ملٌون دوالر‪ ،‬كما أعلن مجلس التعاون‬ ‫الخلٌجً مبادرة لولؾ العنؾ واجتماع رموز الحكومة والمعارضة فً السعودٌة لالتفاق على انتمال سلمً للسلطة‪.‬‬ ‫دعا وزراء خارجٌة دول المجلس كال من الحكومة الٌمنٌة والمعارضة إلى االجتماع فً المملكة العربٌة السعودٌة لترتٌب انتمال‬ ‫سلمً للسلطة‪ ،‬واعلن صالح موافمته على المبادرة فً البداٌة‪ ،‬وكذلن رؼم رفض شباب الثورة لها‪ ،‬وكان نتٌجة ذلن ان تعرض‬ ‫‪ - http://goo.gl/aB5rjF‬العابلة الحاكمة فً الٌمن‪ ،‬الجزٌرة‪.‬نت‪،‬‬ ‫‪ -http://goo.gl/36Ks5M‬تمارٌر عن نمل أمالن صالح لحفٌده‪ ،‬الجزٌرة‪.‬نت‪،‬‬

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‫‪464‬‬ ‫‪465‬‬

‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫صالح لمحاولة اؼتٌال فى ٌونٌو ‪ 2011‬اثناء وجوده فى مسجد ٌالمصر الرباسى حٌث نمل الى المملكة العربٌة السعودٌه للعالج‪ ،‬ثم‬ ‫عاد بعد تلمى العالج فى سبتمبر ‪.4662011‬‬ ‫نتائج الثورة‬‫فً ‪ٌ 21‬ناٌر من عام ‪ ،2012‬وتحت الضؽوطات المنادٌه بتنحٌه رضخ صالح وولع على اتفاق برعاٌة مجلس التعاون الخلٌجى و‬ ‫اشراؾ مجلس االمن و الوالٌات المتحده و االتحاد االوروبى و الذى نص على ان تنمل السلطة من صالح الى نابب الربٌس "عبد‬ ‫ربه منصور هادى" لمدة ثالثة شهور على ان ٌحصل على عبد هللا صالح و معاونٌه على الحصانة من المالحمات المضابٌة على‬ ‫الجرابم التى ارتكبت فى اثناء رباسته‪ ،‬ومنح البرلمان الٌمنً حصانة كاملة لصالح وحصانة من المالحمة المضابٌة على أٌة جرابم‬ ‫"سٌاسٌة"‪.‬‬ ‫وبالرؼم من ابتعاد على عبد هللا صالح إال إنه ظل له دورا مإثرا على االحداث فً الٌمن و ذلن بفضل حزب المإتمر الشعبً العام‬ ‫الذى ٌنتمى له وبفضل العاللات المبلٌة واالللٌمٌة التى ٌتمتع بها صالح داخل الٌمن‪ ،‬لٌعود بذلن إلى االحداث بموة مع االستٌالء‬ ‫المفاجا لجماعة الحوثً على العاصمة صنعاء‪.‬‬ ‫الحوثٌون بعد الثورة‬‫شارن الحوثٌٌن فً الثورة ضد صالح‪ ،‬وحشدوا أنصارهم فً المدن الٌمنٌة تحت لواء الثورة‪ ،‬كما رفضوا المبادرة الخلٌجٌة ولم‬ ‫ٌولعوا علٌها‪ ،‬لكنهم تعاملوا مع نتابجها‪ ،‬وتجسد ذلن من خالل مشاركتهم فً مإتمر الحوار الوطنً‪ ،‬ولجنة صٌاؼة الدستور‪ ،‬كما‬ ‫ٌرى البعض أن تحركاتهم األخٌرة تؤتً فً إطار إعادة تمدٌم أنفسهم للمجتمع الٌمنً باعتبارهم ممثال جدٌدا للطابفة الزٌدٌة التً‬ ‫أنهكها الصراع بٌن صالح وأنصاره من جهة وآل األحمر من جهة أخرى‪ ،‬وأٌضا باعتبارهم جزءا من الحرب الكونٌة ضد اإلرهاب‬ ‫ممثال فً تنظٌم الماعدة‪ ،‬وكذلن من خالل تبنٌهم خطابات مكافحة الفساد وتحمٌك مطالب الثورة والتوافك الوطنً واتفاق السلم‬ ‫والشراكة‪.‬‬ ‫بعد إستمالة الربٌس الٌمنً على عبدهللا صالح وتنازله عن السلطة لناببه‪ ،‬وذلن عمب المظاهرات الشعبٌة التً عرفت ب"ثورة‬ ‫الشباب الٌمنٌة" لم ٌتولؾ الحوثٌون عن تعزٌز نفوذهم‪ ،‬ولد تجلت تلن الجماعة فً الصورة مرة أخرى فً عام ‪ ،2014‬ولكن تلن‬ ‫المرة وحلٌفها الربٌسً هو عدوها السابك علً عبدهللا صالح‪ ،‬وذلن عمب تنازله عن السلطة بعد الثورة الٌمٌنة وسعٌه للعودة إلً‬ ‫الصورة بمساعدة الحوثٌٌن‪.‬‬ ‫فً عام ‪ 2014‬وأوابل عام ‪ 2015‬تمكن الحوثٌٌن من تعطٌل الفترة االنتمالٌة الخاصة بتسلٌم السلطة فً الٌمن والتً ألرتها‬ ‫السعودٌة والوالٌات المتحدة لبل ثالث سنوات‪ ،‬وذلن بسبب تؤخر إصدار الدستور وإنهاء العملٌة االنتمالٌة ورؼبة الحكومة االنتمالٌة‬ ‫فً التمدٌد عاما أخر للربٌس المإلت من أجل إتمام االنتمال السلمً‪ ،‬وكذلن بسبب ما وصؾ بالركود االلتصادي وانتشار الفساد‬ ‫خالل الفترة االنتمالٌة‪ ،‬ولام الحوثٌون باإلستٌالء على العاصمة الٌمنٌة صنعاء فً ‪ 21‬سبتمبر ‪ ،2014‬واضطرت بعد ذلن الحكومة‬ ‫الٌمنٌة التولٌع على اتفالٌة تولؾ إطالق النٌران وكانت تنص على إعطاء الحوثٌون حك االعتراض على وزراء الحكومة‪.‬‬ ‫ٌسعى الحوثٌون حالٌا السٌطرة على مضٌك باب المندب من خالل سٌطرتهم على مدٌنة المخاء الساحلٌة (‪ 60‬كم شرق المضٌك)‪،‬‬ ‫والتً تشهد تحركات عسكرٌة شدٌدة لمسلحً جماعة الحوثٌٌن‪ ،‬كما افتتحت الجماعة منذ فترة مكتبا ربٌسٌا لها فً مدٌنة المخاء‬ ‫الساحلٌة‪.‬‬ ‫التحرن الحوثً األخٌر دفع أٌضا مناصري الحران الجنوبً إلً الدعوة إلً االستمالل عن الٌمن الشمالً‪.‬‬

‫‪ - http://goo.gl/fKJOvm‬تسلسل زمنً ألحداث الٌمن‪ ،‬الجزٌرة‪.‬نت‪ 7 ،‬أكتوبر ‪،7002‬‬

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‫‪466‬‬

‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫الماعدة بعد الثورة‬‫ٌعتمد المسإلون األمرٌكٌون إن تنظٌم الماعدة فً الٌمن ٌعد األكثر خطورة فً تلن المنطمة‪ ،‬وهً تجد فً الحكومة الٌمٌنة والحوثٌون‬ ‫معا أعداءا لها‪ ،‬وتعد جماعة انصار الشرٌعة هً االكثر خطورة فً الٌمن خاصة بعد نشاطها العسكري الموي ي عام ‪ ،2011‬وٌعد‬ ‫اخطر لادة تنظٌم الماعدة فً الٌمن هم "ناصر الوحٌشً – ابراهٌم حسن العسٌري – لاسم الرٌمً – جالل بلعٌدي"‪.‬‬ ‫وبعد أحداث عامً ‪ 2015 -2014‬زادت تصعٌدات الماعدة على األراضً الجنوبٌة الٌمنٌة‪ ،‬وأخر تلن التصعٌدات تمثل فً سٌطرة‬ ‫تنظٌم الماعدة على مدٌرٌة أحور الساحلٌة‪ ،‬لتكون ثالث منطمة ٌسٌطر علٌها فً محافظة أبٌن بعد مدٌنتً زنجبار وجعار‪ ،‬لبل أن‬ ‫ٌعلن فً الٌوم التالً على لسان أنصار الشرٌعة التابع له انسحابه من المدٌرٌة بعد وساطة لبلٌة تمضً بانسحاب مماتلٌه ممابل تؤمٌن‬ ‫الطرٌك‪.467‬‬ ‫اإلنشماق العسكري بعد الثورة‬‫دشن رجل الجٌش الٌمنً علً محسن األحمر فٌما ٌعرؾ بٌوم االنشماق الكبٌر فً ‪ 21‬مارس ‪ ،2011‬وهو الٌوم الذي شهد انحٌاز‬ ‫عدد لٌس بالملٌل من المادة العسكرٌٌن للثوار‪ ،‬وصنع األحمر تحالفا لوٌا مع لبابل أوالد الشٌخ عبد هللا بن حسٌن وواجهتهم السٌاسٌة‬ ‫حزب اإلصالح‪ ،‬وهو تحالؾ ٌبدوا أن الوالء له ألوى لدى كال طرفٌه من الثورة والمبادرة واألحزاب الشرٌكة فً تكتل اللماء‬ ‫المشترن‪ ،‬وإلى جانب األحمر‪ ،‬انشك اللواء دمحم علً محسن (ابن عم الربٌس على عبد هللا صالح) والذي كان ٌشؽل منصب لابد‬ ‫المنطمة الشرلٌة‪.‬‬ ‫العاللات الخارجٌة بعد الثورة‬‫الوالٌات المتحدة األمرٌكٌة‬‫بعد لٌام الثورة الٌمنٌة عام ‪ ،2011‬أعلنت الوالٌات المتحدة فً البداٌة دعمها للربٌس صالح ولكن مع تصاعد وتٌرة العنؾ أعلنت‬ ‫دعمها للثورة وطالبت صالح باالستمالة‪ ،‬ولد دعمت المبادرة الخلٌجٌة لنمل السلطة بالٌمن‪ ،‬وواصلت الوالٌات المتحدة دعمها‬ ‫العسكري للٌمن لمواجهة تنظٌم الماعدة فً عهد الربٌس عبدربه منصور هادي‪ ،‬برؼم تصرٌحاته عن اخطاء جانبٌة للهجمات‬ ‫االمرٌكٌة بطابرات بدون طٌار ٌجب تجنبها فً المستمبل‪.‬‬ ‫ولد بلػ حجم المساعدات األمرٌكٌة وفك التمرٌر الخاص بالسفارة األمرٌكٌة فً صنعاء عام ‪ 2012‬مبلػ ‪ 356‬ملٌون دوالر‪ ،‬لتعد‬ ‫أكبر حجم من المساعادات األمرٌكٌة للٌمن‪ ،‬ولد وزعت بنود المبلػ على دعم االنتمال السٌاسً والنمو االلتصادي والمساعدات‬ ‫اإلنسانٌة واألمن‪ ،‬ولد كان للمساعدات األمنٌة النصٌب األكبر من تلن األموال‪ ،‬حٌث خصص لمجاالت الدفاع والتدرٌب وتجهٌز‬ ‫لوات األمن الٌمنٌة وكذلن إعادة تنظٌم لطاع األمن حوالً ‪ 158‬ملٌون دوالر من إجمالً المساعدات‪.468‬‬ ‫السعودٌة‬‫كان هنان دورا كبٌرا للملكة العربٌة السعودٌة فً إٌجاد الحل السلمً النتمال السلطة فً الٌمن عمب ثورة الشباب الٌمنٌة عام‬ ‫‪ ،2011‬حٌث استضافت الرٌاض فعالٌات تولٌع اتفالٌة انتمال السلطة من الربٌس على عبدهللا صالح إلً الربٌس عبدربه منصور‬ ‫هادي‪ ،‬وٌنظر الٌمنٌٌن للسعودٌة على أنها الداعم االكبر لاللتصاد الٌمنً حٌث المساعدات المالٌة وعوابد التحوٌالت المالٌة للٌمنٌٌن‬ ‫‪467‬‬

‫‪ - http://goo.gl/EN0zaE‬أسلوب سٌطرة جدٌد للماعدة‪ ،‬الجزٌرة‪.‬نت‪ 72 ،‬فبراٌر ‪،7002‬‬ ‫ بٌان وزارة الخارجٌة حول المساعدات األمرٌكٌة الممدمة للٌمن‪ ،‬وزارة الخارجٌة األمرٌكٌة‪ 2 ،‬مارس ‪،7002‬‬‫‪http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/arabic/texttrans/2013/03/20130311143906.html#axzz2SxdeMS5V‬‬ ‫‪468‬‬

‫‪217‬‬

‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫العاملٌن فً المملكة‪ ،‬والدلٌل على ذلن هو إنه عندما تم تسرٌح االالؾ من العمال الٌمنٌٌن من السعودٌة عمب الؽزو العرالً للكوٌت‬ ‫تدهور االلتصاد الٌمنً‪ ،‬مما أدى لمٌام الحرب االهلٌة عام ‪.1994‬‬ ‫إٌران‬‫عمب الثورة الٌمنٌة فً عام ‪ ،2011‬تم دعم خطاب الحوثٌون بشكل مباشر من لبل الحكومة اإلٌرانٌة‪ ،‬ولد صرح العدٌد من‬ ‫المسإلٌن الٌمنٌٌن أ ن إٌران تموم بتموٌل المتمردٌن الحوثٌٌن باالسلحة‪ ،‬وكانت إٌران لد نشرت سفنا حربٌة لها فً خلٌج عدن بدافع‬ ‫مواجهة المرصنة‪ ،‬ولكن الهدؾ الربٌسً لها هو دعم الحوثٌون ضد الحكومة الٌمنٌة‪ ،‬وفً ‪ 2013‬لامت الموات الٌمنٌة بالمبض على‬ ‫سفٌنة إٌرانٌة لبالة السواحل الٌمنٌة محملة باألسلحة‪ ،‬ادعت الحكومة الٌمنٌة أنها لدعم المتمردٌن الحوثٌٌن‪ ،‬ولكن إٌران نفت ذلن‪.‬‬ ‫تاسعا‪ :‬عاصفة الحزم‬

‫‪469‬‬

‫ما لبل العاصفة‬‫كان لتحرن الحوثٌٌن بعد الثورة دورا كبٌرا فً تؤزم الوضع الٌمنً‪ ،‬فمع لٌامهم بتعطٌل المرحلة االنتمالٌة واستٌالبهم على صنعاء‬ ‫فً عام ‪ 2014‬دورا كبٌرا فً زٌادة مإشرات لدوم حربا لوٌة ضدهم‪.‬‬ ‫وٌعد أٌضا من أهم األسباب وراء عاصفة الحزم ما حدث فً ‪ 2‬أبرٌل من عام ‪ 2015‬والذي وافمت فٌه إٌران على تولٌع اتفالٌة‬ ‫تحد من لدراتها النووٌة مع ست دول كبرى من ضمنهم الوالٌات المتحدة األمرٌكٌة ممابل تخفٌض العموبات علٌها‪ ،‬ولد اتخذ‬ ‫الخلٌجٌون هذا المولؾ مع بوادر تولٌع االتفاق كنعا من إعالن الؽضب واستعادة السٌطرة من الطرؾ اإلٌرانً حتى وإن توافك مع‬ ‫‪469‬‬

‫ الصراع السعودي اإلٌرانً على الٌمن‪ ،‬الجزٌرة‪.‬نت‪ٌ 77 ،‬ونٌو ‪،7002‬‬‫‪http://studies.aljazeera.net/ar/reports/2015/06/201562581942634902.html‬‬

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‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫الدول الكبري‪ ،‬ولد وجدت السعودٌة على سبٌل المثال من دول الخلٌج فً جماعة الحوثٌٌن أنها جماعة مسلحة تعمل بالوكالة لصالح‬ ‫النظام اإلٌرانً‪ ،‬كما ٌعمل فً لبنان حزب هللا‪.‬‬ ‫وٌرى المجتمع الخلٌجً نفوذ إٌران من ناحٌة أخرى عن طرٌك المد الشٌعً فً العراق ودعمها لنظام الربٌس السوري بشار األسد‬ ‫هو حدا فاصل للمٌام بعملٌة عسكرٌة إلٌماؾ إٌران على فً الحال من الفوز بمركز جدٌد فً اللعبة السٌاسٌة مع الخلٌج من خالل‬ ‫السٌطرة على الٌمن عن طرٌك وكٌلتهم هنان الحوثٌون‪ ،‬ولد كان لمٌام السعودٌة بهذه الحرب مع الدول المتحالفة معها إلرسال عدة‬ ‫رسابل وهً ‪-:‬‬ ‫‪ -1‬وضع حد للتمدد اإلٌرانً فً المنطمة بشكل عام والٌمن بشكل خاص‪ ،‬وإرسال رسالة بؤن دول التحالؾ لن تمؾ مولؾ المتفرج‬ ‫من التمدد اإلٌرانً‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -2‬التؤثٌر على المفاوضات النووٌة اإلٌرانٌة‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -3‬التعبٌر عن للمها من التمارب األمٌركً ‪ -‬اإلٌرانً الذي ترى دول التحالؾ‪ ،‬وعلى رأسها السعودٌة‪ ،‬أنه سٌكون على حساب‬ ‫نفوذها فً المنطمة وٌموي من دور إٌران فً معادلة النفوذ اإلللٌمٌة‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -4‬إثبات أن دول المنطمة لادرة على حماٌة نفسها بنفسها واتخاذ اإلجراء المناسب متى لزم األمر‪ ،‬وأن اإلنفاق الهابل على التسلح‬ ‫طوال السنوات الماضٌة لم ٌكن هباء ولم ٌذهب سدى‪.470‬‬ ‫بداٌة العملٌات‬‫فً ‪ 22‬من ٌناٌر لدم الربٌس الٌمنً عبدربه منصور هادي استمالته وظل تحت اإللامة الجبرٌة حتى هرب إلً عدن فً ‪ 21‬فبراٌر‬ ‫ومن هنا وجه وزٌر خارجٌته رسالة إلً المملكة العربٌة السعودٌة ٌطالبها فٌه بالتدخل للمضاء على انمالب الحوثٌون‪ ،‬وفً ‪26‬‬ ‫مارس عام ‪ 2015‬لامت المملكة العربٌة السعودٌة مع تسع دول أخري بالمٌام بما سمً بعملٌات "عاصفة الحزم" للمضاء على المد‬ ‫الحوثً‪.‬‬ ‫شارن فً العملٌات لرابة ‪ 177‬طابرة من جمٌع الدول التً أعلنت مشاركتها فً التحالؾ الذي تموده السعودٌة‪ ،‬ولرابة ‪150000‬‬ ‫جندي سعودي‪ ،‬واستهدفت الضربات الجوٌة عددا من المدن التً ٌسٌطر علٌها الحوثٌون كمدٌنة صعدة فً الشمال الٌمنً وتعز وإب‬ ‫وحجة باالضافة إلً العاصمة‪.‬‬ ‫وبعد شهر تمرٌبا من بداٌة العملٌات وبالتحدٌد فً ‪ 21‬أبرٌل من عام ‪ 2015‬أعلن التحالؾ تولؾ عاصفة الحزم والبدأ فً عملٌة‬ ‫عاصفة األمل‪ ،‬ولكن لم تتولؾ العملٌات العسكرٌة بشكل كامل بل ادعى أطراؾ التحالؾ إن العملٌات العسكرٌة ستصاحبها‬ ‫مساعدات انسانٌة‪.471‬‬ ‫المولف األمرٌكً‬‫لامت الوالٌات المتحدة مع بداٌة عاصفة الحزم بعرض المساعدة فً تبادل المعلومات المخابراتٌة والمساعدة فً تحدٌد األهداؾ‬ ‫وتمدٌم دعم استشاري ولوجٌستً لتوجٌه ضربات ألهداؾ الحوثٌٌن‪.‬‬

‫‪ - http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423‬االشتباكات فً الٌمن‪ :‬من ٌحارب من‪ ،‬بً بً سً‪ 72 ،‬مارس ‪،7002‬‬ ‫‪ - http://goo.gl/qtHV2D‬عاصفة الحزم‪ ،‬الجزٌرة‪.‬نت‪،7002 ،‬‬

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‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫كما لام وزٌر الخارجٌة األمرٌكً جون كٌري بالتحدث مع وزراء خارجٌة السعودٌة ودول أخرى فً مجلس التعاون الخلٌجً‪،‬‬ ‫ورحب بمرارهم التحرن عسكرٌا ضد المماتلٌن الحوثٌٌن فً الٌمن‪ ،‬كما أثنى كٌري على تصرؾ التحالؾ بالتحرن عسكرٌا ضد‬ ‫الحوثٌٌن وأشار إلى دعم الوالٌات المتحدة لجهود التحالؾ بما فً ذلن المساعدة فً تحدٌد األهداؾ وتمدٌم دعم استشاري‬ ‫ولوجٌستً‪.472‬‬ ‫المولف اإلٌرانً‬‫على الجانب األخر ترى إٌران أن تلن العملٌات ما هً إال عدوانا سعودٌا على الٌمن له نتابج خطٌرة‪ ،‬فمد أعلنت المتحدثة باسم‬ ‫الخارجٌة اإلٌرانٌة مرضٌة أفخم فً بٌان أن هذا العمل العسكري ٌمكن أن "ٌزٌد من تعمٌد الوضع واتساع األزمة والمضاء على‬ ‫فرص التوصل إلى حل سلمً للخالفات الداخلٌة فً الٌمن‪.‬‬ ‫ودعت إلى ضرورة تمسن األطراؾ كافة بالحلول الوطنٌة الناتجة عن االتفاق بٌن األحزاب والكتل السٌاسٌة فً الٌمن‪ ،‬كما أعربت‬ ‫المسإولة اإلٌرانٌة عن بالػ للمها من تزاٌد ما وصفتها بالنشاطات "اإلرهابٌة" بالٌمن‪ ،‬مشٌرة إلى أن من أبرز تداعٌات هذا الهجوم‬ ‫العسكري أنه سٌكون اتساع لرلعة "اإلرهاب" والتطرؾ لتشمل مناطك أخرى بالمنطمة‪ ،‬وفك لولها‪ ،‬كما أكد ربٌس لجنة األمن‬ ‫المومً بمجلس الشورى عالء الدٌن بروجردي أن "نار الحرب على الٌمن سترتد على السعودٌة" داعٌا إلى ولؾ العملٌات‬ ‫العسكرٌة‪ ،‬ولد لال إن ما سماه "إشعال النار" سٌترن عوالب‪ ،‬وأن نار هذه الحرب سترتد على السعودٌة نفسها ألن الحرب لن تبمى‬ ‫محدودة فً نمطة واحدة‪ ،‬وفك رأٌه‪.‬‬ ‫ٌعتبر البعض هذه التصرٌحات هً الدلٌل األكبر على استمرار الدعم اإلٌرانً للحوثٌٌن حتى أثناء وبعد انتهاء العاصفة‪ ،‬حٌث كان‬ ‫لد أعلن التحالؾ العربً لٌامه بإحباط محاولة تهرٌب أسلحة إٌرانٌة كانت فً طرٌمها إلى الحوثٌٌن‪ ،‬ولال التحالؾ إنه احتجز زورلا‬ ‫للصٌد فً بحر العرب لرب مدٌنة صاللة العمانٌة أٌضا‪ ،‬كان محمال بعتاد ٌضم لذابؾ وصوارٌخ مضادة للدروع والدبابات‪ ،‬فضال‬ ‫عن لاذفات ومعدات عسكرٌة أخرى‪ ،‬كما أشارت المعلومات إلى أن المركب المحمل باألسلحة كان على متنه ‪ 14‬إٌرانٌا‪ ،‬وٌحمل‬ ‫‪473‬‬ ‫وثابك تشٌر إلى أنه مملون إلٌران‪ ،‬وأن األسلحة التً وصفت بالفتاكة كانت فً طرٌمها إلى جماعة الحوثٌٌن‬ ‫وكذلن تم تحذٌر السعودٌة من لبل المستشار األعلى للمرشد اإلٌرانً بالحرس الثوري ٌد هللا جوانً من أنها ستتحمل تبعات ثمٌلة‬ ‫جراء هجومها العسكري على الٌمن‪ ،‬وفك ما نملت عنه وكالة أنباء تسنٌم اإلٌرانٌة‪.‬‬ ‫على صعٌد آخر‪ ،‬انتشرت تصرٌحات لمستشار المرشد األعلى االٌرانً علً أكبر والٌتً‪ ،‬بإن إٌران ستتدخل فً الٌمن بدعم روسً‬ ‫على ؼرار ما حدث من تعاون روسً – إٌرانً فً سورٌا والعراق‪.‬‬ ‫وأكد والٌتً فً ممابلة مع وكالة "نادي الصحفٌٌن اإلٌرانٌٌن"‪ ،‬التابعة لهٌبة االذاعة والتلفزٌون اإلٌرانٌة‪ ،‬أن "هنان تحوال ؼٌر‬ ‫مسبوق فً التنسٌك بٌن إٌران وروسٌا ولن ٌمتصر على سورٌا وإن رلعة هذا التعاون باإلضافة إلى العراق ولبنان‪ ،‬ستمتد إلى الٌمن‬ ‫أٌضا"‪.‬‬ ‫ما بعد العاصفة‬‫برؼم إعالن السعودٌة إنهاء العملٌات فً أبرٌل ‪ 2015‬إال أن العملٌات ظلت مستمرة‪ ،‬حٌث استمرت الضربات الجوٌة فً مدٌنة‬ ‫تعز التً استولً المتمردو ن على ممرات الجٌش الٌمنً بها‪ ،‬وفً أحدى أٌام المعركة لام الحوثٌون بؤول عمل هجومً ضد المملكة‬ ‫بإطالق صوارٌخ على مدٌنة نجران التً تمع جنوب المملكة مما أسفر عن ممتل عدة مواطنٌن سعودٌٌن‪ ،‬ولد لالت المملكة إن هذا‬ ‫ٌعد تخطً للخطوط الحمراء وأن الثمن سوؾ ٌكون باهظا‪ ،‬كما تمكنت الموات الحكومٌة الموالٌة للربٌس عبدربه منصور هادي من‬ ‫‪ - http://goo.gl/bgMHry‬مركز الشرق العربً للدراسات الحضارٌة واإلستشارٌة‪ 72 ،‬مارس ‪،7002‬‬ ‫‪ - http://goo.gl/9KqRY9‬إٌران ومعركة خاسرة فً الٌمن‪ ،‬الجزٌرة‪.‬نت‪ 20 ،‬سبتمبر ‪،7002‬‬

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‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫استعادة السٌطرة على المصر الرباسً بمدٌنة عدن ٌوم ‪ٌ 22‬ولٌو بعد اشتباكات مع المتمردٌن‪ ،‬ولد تم فتح مطار المدٌنة لمدة أسبوع‬ ‫بعد استعادته‪.‬‬ ‫تمكنت لوات التحالؾ بمطلع أكتوبر من عام ‪ 2015‬فً التالع جذور الحوثٌون فً عدة مناطك بالٌمن كالمناطك الجنوبٌة وعدن‬ ‫وبعض المناطك الشمالٌة‪ ،‬ولد نتج عن تلن العملٌات سموط أكثر من ‪ 6000‬لتٌل منهم العدٌد من المدنٌٌن‪ ،‬كما فمدت لوات التحالؾ‬ ‫ما ٌمرب من ‪ 150‬جندٌا سعودٌا وامارتٌا بعد صاروخ أطلمته جماعة الحوثٌون على مستودع ذخٌرة‪ ،‬كذلن نجحت الموات الخلٌجٌة‬ ‫فً إزالة خطر الصوارٌخ البالٌستٌة التً كانت من الممكن أن تمع فً ٌد الحوثٌون‪.‬‬ ‫ولكن نتابج العاصفة والمشاكل التً جاءت بعدها كانت أكثر زخما وصعوبة مما ٌتخٌله الكثٌرون‪ ،‬حٌث أنه عمب عاصفة الحزم‪،‬‬ ‫اتضح أن األمور أصبحت أكثر تعمٌدا خاصة إن العاصفة كانت مالزمة لتولٌع االتفالٌة النووٌة التً حدثت بٌن إٌران ومجموعة‬ ‫‪ 1+5‬التً تضم الوالٌات المتحدة وحلفاإها من أجل مشكلة البرنامج النووي اإلٌرانً‪ ،‬والتً لد انتهت بالوصول لحل بٌن كافة‬ ‫األطراؾ‪ ،‬والتً أعطت إٌران الفرصة للعودة إلً الخارطة الدولٌة بموة التصادٌا وسٌاسٌا على حساب دول الخلٌج‪ ،‬فمد كان الخوؾ‬ ‫المسٌطر على الخلٌج من تلن االتفالٌة هو الدافع االساسً الندالع العملٌات‪ ،‬فالخلٌج ٌخشى أن تكون االتفالٌة بداٌة لزٌادة نفوذ إٌران‬ ‫بالمنطمة والٌمن لم تكن النمطة االولً حٌث سٌمها األحداث فً سورٌا والدعم العسكري اإلٌرانً لألسد‪ ،‬ومحاولتهم دعم‬ ‫االحتجاجات فً البحرٌن ضد األسرة الحاكمة هنان‪ ،‬والتً تعد من أكبر الحلفاء للجانب السعودي‪ ،‬ولكنها األهم كون الٌمن تمع فً‬ ‫منطمة متحكمة فً التجارة العالمٌة ولربها الشدٌد من الحدود السعودٌة‪ ،‬وبعد تولٌع االتفالٌة تعد سٌطرة إٌران على الٌمن دلٌل على‬ ‫المحاصرة التامة للخلٌج برمته‪.‬‬ ‫ولد صورت عاصفة الحزم للجمٌع أن إندالعها كان رد فعل لوى ومفاجا للوالٌات المتحدة االمرٌكٌة من الجانب السعودي‪ ،‬ولد‬ ‫أشارت تلن العملٌات إلً كونها بداٌة خروج السعودٌة من مظلة الحماٌة األمرٌكٌة‪ ،‬بل والتمرد علٌها عمب االتفالٌة النووٌة‪ ،‬ولد‬ ‫ٌبدو الخطر األكبر على الوالٌات المتحدة هو أن تطالب المملكة ودول الخلٌج الوالٌات المتحدة بسحب لواعدها العسكرٌة المتواجدة‬ ‫هنان‪ ،‬وذلن سعٌا للبحث عن حلٌفا جدٌد ٌحمً الخلٌج من الخطر المابم‪،‬‬ ‫ولعاصفة الحزم واالتفالٌة النووٌة نتابج‪ ،‬أخرى فالخلٌجٌون أنفسهم ٌخشون االنمسام‪ ،‬وهو ما تسعى إلٌه إٌران حالٌا‪ ،‬وٌمكن لالنمسام‬ ‫الخلٌجً أن ٌعٌك من مهمة الوالٌات المتحدة فً وجود لرار واحد من جمٌع دول الخلٌج داعما لها فً المضاٌا الدولٌة‪ ،‬فبعدما كان‬ ‫الحدٌث حول المجتمع الخلٌجً الداعم ألمرٌكا لد تتحدث عن دول بعٌنها فً المستمبل دون األخري بسبب االنمسامات المحتملة‪،‬‬ ‫وبذلن فمد اتضح أكثر مع خطاب الود والمصالحة اإلٌرانً الذي لم ٌوجه لجمٌع دول الخلٌج‪.‬‬ ‫كما كان دافع الخلٌجٌن للمٌام بعاصفة الحزم هو االعتماد السابد منذ بوادر االتفاق اإلٌرانً العالمً إنها لم تعد تعرؾ االتجاه الخاص‬ ‫بسٌاسات الوالٌات المتحدة فً المنطمة‪ ،‬واحتمالٌة التضحٌة بالخلٌج ممابل إعادة العاللات مع إٌران‪ ،‬كذلن ترى السعودٌة إن الولت‬ ‫لد حان للدخول بموة فً معادلة توزانات الموة فً المنطمة بعٌدا عن التعاون مع أمرٌكا خاصة بعد استفراد إٌران بتلن المعادلة‬ ‫بسموط نظامً العراق وسورٌا‪ ،‬وهو ما ٌضعؾ من الهٌمنة األمرٌكٌة فً المنطمة‪.‬‬ ‫ومع ذلن‪ ،‬ال تخفً دول الخلٌج ‪-‬على األلل على الصعٌد ؼٌر الرسمً‪ -‬خشٌتها من أن ٌسفر التمارب بٌن واشنطن وطهران عن‬ ‫"صفمة مصالح" تمنح تسهٌالت إللٌمٌة للثانٌة فً المنطمة بموافمة أمرٌكٌة ضمنٌة؛ وهو األمر الذي من شؤنه أن ٌملص هامش‬ ‫المناورة السٌاسٌة لدول الخلٌج العربٌة لصالح إٌران‪ ،‬التً ستبرز كموة إللٌمٌة مهٌمنة ومسٌطرة فً المنطمة‪.‬‬ ‫ووفما لهذه الرإٌة‪ ،‬فإن هذا التمارب سٌطرح تحدٌات استراتٌجٌة فٌما ٌخص أمن الخلٌج تحدٌدا بما سٌترتب علٌه من انفراد إٌرانً‬ ‫بالمنطمة‪ ،‬فً ظل ؼٌاب موازن إللٌمً آخر؛ حٌث أن الوالٌات المتحدة تموم بهذا الدور منذ الحرب فً العراق عام ‪.4742003‬‬ ‫ولد ٌكون لبداٌة الخالؾ األمرٌكً مع السعودٌة ودول الخلٌج نتابج سلبٌة من ناحٌة الحرب على اإلرهاب‪ ،‬فبخالؾ استخدام‬ ‫الوالٌات المتحدة وحلفاإها للمواعد العسكرٌة فً الخلٌج لضرب الماعدة وداعش والتً ٌمكن خسارتهم بسهولة‪ ،‬فإن الخلٌج له دورا‬ ‫‪474‬‬

‫ التمارب اإلٌرانً األمرٌكً وأمن الخلٌج‪ ،‬الجزٌرة نت‪ 77 ،‬أكتوبر ‪،7002‬‬‫‪http://studies.aljazeera.net/ar/reports/2013/10/201310227132471328.html‬‬

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‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫هاما أخر فً تلن المعركة‪ ،‬وهو ما أظهره بٌان جدة الختامً فً عام ‪ ،4752014‬فإن دول الخلٌج أٌضا تفتح مجالها الجوي ألمرٌكا‬ ‫لمحاربة األرهاب وكذلن تشارن كال من السعودٌة واإلمارت فً العملٌات العسكرٌة فً لٌبٌا والٌمن والعراق‪ ،‬ولد تكون خطوة‬ ‫انسحاب الخلٌج من تلن المعركة هً الخطوة التالٌة عمب عاصفة الحزم‪.‬‬ ‫كما أن وكاالت االستخبارات الؽربٌة ٌعتبرون الماعدة فً جزٌرة العرب الفرع األكثر خطورة من تنظٌم الماعدة بسبب خبرتها‬ ‫الفنٌة‪ ,‬ولد كانت الوالٌات المتحدة تموم بعملٌات عدٌدة بما فً ذلن ؼارات بطابرات بدون طٌار ضد الماعدة فً جزٌرة العرب فً‬ ‫الٌمن فً وجود تعاون لوي مع الربٌس هادي‪ ،‬ولكن بعد أزمة الحوثٌٌن تم تصؽٌر الحملة األمرٌكٌة والحد منها‬ ‫ولعل أكثر ما ٌدل على الؽضب الخلٌجً هو لمة "كامب دٌفٌد" التً دعى الٌها الربٌس االمرٌكً اوباما‪ ،‬لد كان من المفترض أن‬ ‫تكون مع كامل لادة دول الخلٌج لتتؤكٌد على التصدي ألٌة تهدٌدات لد ٌتعرض لها الخلٌج‪ ،‬وأن الوالٌات المتحدة ودفاع لها من أٌَّة‬ ‫تهدٌدات‪ّ .‬‬ ‫لكن ال ِم َّمة التً كان من المفترض أن ٌحضرها لادة الستّ دول الخلٌجٌة تخلؾ عنها الملن سلمان بن عبد العزٌز وثالثة‬ ‫زعماء آخرٌن‪ ،‬ولم ٌحضر سوى زعماء الكوٌت ولطر‪ ،‬هنا كانت الرسالة واضحة من لبل دول الخلٌج بؤنّها ؼاضبة من حلٌفها‬ ‫األبرز فً العالم‪.‬‬ ‫وٌعد من اهم المخاطر التً تؤتً عمب عاصفة الحزم هو دخول دول الخلٌج المشارن فً العملٌات ما ٌعرؾ بسم "سباق التسلح‬ ‫الخلٌجً ‪ -‬اإلٌرانً"‪ ،‬فإن دول الخلٌج دابما ما تتخوؾ من المناورات اإلٌرانٌة وسباق التسلح السرٌع الذي تسعى إلٌه الدولة‬ ‫الفارسٌة‪ ،‬وهو ما ٌدفع دول الخلٌج من ناحٌة أخرى إلً الدخول فً هذا السباق والنٌة إلً امتالن المزٌد من األسلحة األكثر تطورا‬ ‫ولوة فً المنطمة وهو ما ٌهدد بالهٌمنة األمرٌكٌة على منطمة الشرق األوسط‪ ،‬ولد ال ٌتولؾ األمر بالتسلح التملٌدي من جانب الدول‬ ‫الخلٌجٌة‪ ،‬ولكن لد ٌتطور األمر إلً الرؼبة فً الحصول على األسلحة النووٌة وهو ما ٌنسؾ تماما الرؼبة األمرٌكٌة فً جعل‬ ‫المنطمة خالٌة من أسلحة الدمار الشامل‪ ،‬وكذلن تهدٌد أمن إسرابٌل‪.476‬‬ ‫ٌرى بعض المحللون إن دول الخلٌج لد تلجؤ إلً االستفادة من النموذج الٌابانً فً التسلح النووي‪ ،‬وهو ٌعنً إمتالن لدرات نووٌة‬ ‫ٌمكن أن تتحول بمرار سٌاسً إلً لنبلة نووٌة ‪.477‬‬ ‫كما أن فً عام ‪ 2013‬لال المابد العام لموة دفاع البحرٌن "اذا ما سعت اٌران للحصول على اسلحة نووٌة‪ ،‬فدول الخلٌج لن ٌمنعها‬ ‫شٌبا من امتالن السالح النووي"‪ ،‬وهو ما ٌإثر على موازٌن الموة بالمنطمة وحلفاء الوالٌات المتحدة‪.‬‬ ‫كما أن اسرابٌل تعلك دابما على ان السعودٌة لد رفعت لٌمة مشترٌاتها من األسحلة أربع مرات منذ عام ‪ ،2010‬وكذلن مبٌعات‬ ‫االسلحة لدول الخلٌج مجتمعة لد ارتفعت بنسبة ‪ %70‬فً السنوات االخٌرة‪.‬‬ ‫اللعبة االلتصادٌة الكبرى عمب عاصفة الحزم‬‫تعد أسباب عاصفة الحزم والتً أدت لمٌامها أسباب ذات سالحٌن مختلفٌن فً التوجه مشتركٌن فً المنبع‪ ،‬حٌث إن السبب األول هو‬ ‫إعادة الربٌس الٌمنً الذي ابعده الحوثٌون‪ ،‬والسبب الثانً هو الحرب االلتصادٌة الكبرى بٌن الدول المصدرة للنفط عمب االتفاق‬ ‫النووي مع إٌران أٌضا‪.‬‬ ‫فبرؼم ما حملته عاصفة الحزم من خسابر التصادٌة لدول الخلٌج والتً اعترفت به الكوٌت على سبٌل المثال عندما تحدثت عن‬ ‫وجود عجز فً المٌزانٌة بسبب المواجهات فً جنوب الخلٌج‪ ،‬والتً حثت على أثرها مواطنٌها إلً ترشٌد االنفاق العام‪ ،‬حٌث لد‬ ‫تراجعت إٌرادات الدولة بنسبة وصلت إلً ‪.478%60‬‬ ‫وكذلن ما حملته تلن العاصفة من خسابر بااللتصاد السعودي الذي سجل اول عجزا له فً الموازنة منذ سنوات بعٌدة‪ ،‬فإن دول‬ ‫الخلٌج مجتمعة تبحث حالٌا الدخول فً حرب التصادٌة مع الوالٌات المتحدة كسبٌال مكمال لعاصفة الحزم‪ ،‬حٌث أنها تبحث عن‬ ‫‪475‬‬

‫‪ - http://aawsat.com/home/article/171536‬البٌان الختامً للمجلس الوزاري لدول الخلٌج‪ ،‬الشرق األوسط‪ 0 ،‬سبتمبر ‪،7002‬‬ ‫ ‪ -‬التمارب اإلٌرانً األمرٌكً وأمن الخلٌج‪ ،‬الجزٌرة نت‪ 77 ،‬أكتوبر ‪،7002‬‬‫‪http://studies.aljazeera.net/ar/reports/2013/10/201310227132471328.html‬‬ ‫‪477‬‬ ‫‪ - http://goo.gl/GhloqH‬عاصفة الحزم واالتفاق النووي‪ ،‬الحٌاة‪ 07 ،‬أبرٌل ‪،7002‬‬ ‫‪478‬‬ ‫ أمٌر الكوٌت‪ :‬تراجع أسعار النفط وراء خفض إٌرادتنا‪ ،‬األهرام الرلمً‪ 72 ،‬أكتوبر ‪،7002‬‬‫‪http://digital.ahram.org.eg/articaldetails.aspx?Serial=1945867&part=6‬‬ ‫‪476‬‬

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‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫حلفاء من نوع أخر من اجل تصدٌر النفط وإلامة المشروعات النفطٌة داخل الخلٌج العربً كبدٌال للوالٌات المتحدة‪ ،‬أو تسعً دول‬ ‫الخلٌج مستمبال فً امتالن سالح نووي لصد إٌران‪ ،‬وكذلن دعمها للجماعات السنٌة فً سورٌا‪.‬‬ ‫ولكن الموضوع األكبر حالٌا من الناحٌة االلتصادٌة هو ما ٌعرؾ ب"صراع العض على األصابع" وهو مفهوم للحرب النفطٌة‬ ‫األمرٌكٌة الروسٌة السعودٌة‪ ،‬خاصة بعد اكتشاؾ النفط الصخري فً الوالٌات المتحدة‪ ،‬فمع خشٌة الخلٌج والسعودٌة من اكتشافات‬ ‫أمرٌكا النفطٌة وتولعات انخفاض انتاجٌة السعودٌة من النفط فً الفترة الممبلة‪ ،‬فمد لامت المملكة بعملٌة كبرى لضرب النفط‬ ‫األمرٌكً من جذورها ‪ ،‬وذلن من خالل إبماء السعودٌة على معدالت انتاجها الحالً برؼم انخفاض االسعار‪ ،‬ولكنها لامت فً‬ ‫الولت ذاته برفع أسعار النفط فً األسواق اآلسٌوٌة‪ ،‬فً حٌن أنها احتفظت بالمعدالت الحالٌة للنفط المصدر إلى بالً أنحاء العالم‪،‬‬ ‫على اعتبار أن الوالٌات المتحدة ربما ال تستطٌع منافسة نظرابها الخلٌجٌٌن فً السوق النفطً اآلسٌوي‪.‬‬ ‫الشركات النفطٌة األمرٌكٌة التً تعمل فً النفط الصخري حممت مكاسب كبرى على حساب منافسٌها فً المملكة‪ ،‬األمر الذي ربما‬ ‫ال ٌ سعد السلطات السعودٌة‪ ،‬لذلن لم ٌجدوا وسٌلة أخرى لمحاربة النفط األمرٌكً سوى إؼراق السوق بالنفط المعروض‪ ،‬فً ظل‬ ‫تنالص الطلب‪ ،‬إللحاق أكبر الخسابر الممكنة للشركات األمرٌكٌة‪ ،‬ومن المتولع أن الكثٌر من شركات النفط الصؽٌرة التً تعمل‬ ‫على البحث عن النفط األمرٌكً لد تنهار إذا ما استمرت السعودٌة فً اتباع سٌاستها‪ ،‬وهو ما ترٌده المملكة‪.‬‬ ‫كما أن ثلث أعضاء منظمة "األوبن" للدول المصدرة للنفط هم من الخلٌج‪ ،‬وصوتوا ككل بدعم السعودٌة فً معركتها لحصتها فً‬ ‫السوق‪ ،‬كما أن أوبن لم تتولؾ حتى اآلن‪ ،‬فإنتاجها لرٌب من أعلى نسبة فً السنوات الثالث الماضٌة بما ٌمارب اثنٌن وثالثٌن‬ ‫ملٌون برمٌل ٌومٌا‪.‬‬ ‫مضٌفة بذلن ثالثة مالٌٌن برمٌل ٌومٌا على العرض الزابد‪ ،‬ذلن على الرؼم من أن هذه الحرب لد تكون لها أثار سلبٌة على التصاد‬ ‫المملكة التً ترٌد المحافظة على استمرارها الداخلً‪ ،‬بٌنما تماتل على حدودها الجنوبٌة فً الٌمن‪ ،‬ولكن بالفعل بعض المنشآت‬ ‫والشركات النفطٌة التً تعمل بالنفط الصخري لد انهارت بما ٌمارب من نصفها‪.479‬‬ ‫ومن ناحٌة أخرى بدأت األصوات فً الوالٌات المتحدة تطالب باتخاذ إجراء لوي فً هذه الحرب االلتصادٌة‪ ،‬حٌث لال مساعد‬ ‫بمجلس الشٌوخ األمٌركً أنه من المرجح رفع الحظر المفروض منذ ‪ 40‬عام على معظم صادرات الوالٌات المتحدة من النفط الخام‬ ‫فً مٌزانٌة اإلنفاق الحكومٌة‪.‬‬ ‫ٌعتمد البعض أن شركات الطالة األمرٌكٌة ترى أن إلؽاء الحظر سٌحافظ على االزدهار فً عملٌات الحفر للتنمٌب عن النفط فً الوالٌات‬ ‫المتحدة‪ ،‬وسٌعطً حلفاء واشنطن بدابل لروسٌا و"أوبن" للحصول على إمداداتهم من النفط‪.‬‬ ‫فً الممابل‪ٌ ،‬رى المعارضون‪ ،‬أن رفع الحظر سٌعرض عملٌات تكرٌر النفط ووظابؾ بناء السفن للخطر‪ ،‬كما أن المٌام بمزٌد من عملٌات‬ ‫الحفر سٌضر البٌبة‪ ،‬وٌزٌد عدد المطارات التً تحمل النفط الخام‪.‬‬ ‫ٌشار إلى أن الوالٌات المتحدة فرضت حظرا على معظم صادرات النفط الخام عام ‪ ،1975‬تحسبا من نمص موارد الطالة فً البالد‪ ،‬مثلما ولع‬ ‫إثر حرب أكتوبر عام ‪.4801973‬‬ ‫عاشرا‪ :‬تداعٌات األزمة الٌمنٌة على العاللات الدولٌة‬ ‫التمارب الخلٌجً ‪ -‬الروسً‬‫تشهد العاللات بٌن دول الخلٌج وروسٌا نوعا من التحول شبه الكامل‪ ،‬فبعد فترة من االبتعاد عن روسٌا ومن لبلة االتحاد السوفٌتً بدأ التمارب‬ ‫الروسً ‪ -‬الخلٌجً بشكل كبٌر خاصة بعد االتفالٌة النووٌة اإلٌرانٌة وعاصفة الحزم‪.‬‬

‫‪ - http://goo.gl/3p7vu2‬صراع "العض على األصابع"‪ ،‬سً أن أن‪ 72 ،‬أؼسطس ‪،7002‬‬ ‫‪ - http://goo.gl/v91yaf‬بعد ‪ 20‬عاما أمرٌكا لد ترفع حظر تصدٌر النفط‪ ،‬سكاي نٌوز‪ 07 ،‬دٌسمبر ‪،7002‬‬

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‫‪479‬‬ ‫‪480‬‬

‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫اتسمت العاللات الروسٌة بالمملكة السعودٌة فً الماضً بالتوتر‪ ،‬فمد كانت العاللات ممطوعة تماما بٌن الطرفٌن فً عهد الملن عبد العزٌز ال‬ ‫سعود بسبب بؽضه للشٌوعٌن فً االتحاد السوفٌتً‪ ،‬كما إن السعودٌة كانت تدعم الجهادٌٌن فً افؽانستان فً حربهم ضد السوفٌٌت‪ ،‬ولكن فً‬ ‫الولت الراهن بدأ تمارب ٌظهر بٌن الطرفٌن حٌث بدأت السعودٌة فً توثٌك عاللتها مع موسكو‪ ،‬كما لام ولً ولً العهد األمٌر دمحم بن سلمان‬ ‫بزٌارة روسٌا فً ‪ 17‬من ٌونٌو عام ‪ 2014‬لرإٌة الربٌس بوتٌن‪ ،‬ونتٌجة لتطور العاللات بٌن البلدٌن فمد لاما الطرفان فً ٌونٌو ‪2015‬‬ ‫بتدشٌن اتفالٌة لبناء ‪ 16‬مفاعل نووي لألؼراض السلمٌة‪ ،‬وذلن عمب ‪ 9‬سنوات من مطالبة مجلس التعاون الخلٌجً الٌجاد برنامج فً مجال‬ ‫الطالة النووٌة‪.‬‬ ‫على العكس من المملكة السعودٌة فإن العاللات الروسٌة ‪ -‬االمارتٌة لم تكن جدٌدة بعد االتفالٌة النووٌة ‪ ،‬حٌث إن من ناحٌة التعاون االلتصادي‪،‬‬ ‫ولَّعت إمارة أبو ظبً مذكرة تفاهم مع الجانب الروسً إلنشاء صندوق استثمار بمٌمة ‪ 5‬ملٌارات دوالر‪ ،‬ولد وصل الحجم اإلجمالً للتجارة بٌن‬ ‫الدولتٌن إلً ‪ 1.5‬ملٌار دوالر وارتفعت التجارة ؼٌر النفطٌة بٌن الدولتٌن بممدار‪ %7,5‬فً عام ‪ 2013‬مسجلة ‪ 897‬ملٌون دوالر أمٌركً‪،‬‬ ‫ولد أنشؤ رجال األعمال الروس واإلماراتٌون أكثر من ‪ 350‬مشروعا مشتركا فً اإلمارات‪ ،‬كما صدلت اإلمارات على اتفالٌة التعاون مع‬ ‫روسٌا فً مجال برامج الطالة النووٌة السلمٌة‪.‬‬ ‫وفً ظ ّل االتفاق الروسً – اإلماراتً على محاربة االرهاب واإلسالم السٌاسً‪ ،‬بعض التمارٌر تتحدث أن بعض االتفالات التً عمدتها‬ ‫اإلمارات مع روسٌا تتضمن صفمات سالح لدول تدعمها اإلمارات مثل مصر ولٌبٌا‬ ‫وتؤتً لطر فً صدارة دول الخلٌج التً نشؤت صراع مباشر بٌنها وبٌن روسٌا‪ ،‬وٌعود هذا التوتر فً البداٌة بسبب صراع الؽاز بٌن الدولتٌن‪،‬‬ ‫فمد اتهمت روسٌا لطر بؤنها أعلنت حرب الؽاز معها فً اوروبا‪ ،‬وكذلن المضٌة السورٌة واللٌبٌة‪ ،‬حٌث أن طلب لطر بتسلٌح المعارضة‬ ‫السورٌة اللى رفضا روسٌا كبٌر‪ ،‬كما أن مشادة لد حدثت بٌن ربٌس وزراء لطر و ممثل روسٌا باألمم المتحدة شهدت على توتر عاللتهما‪ ،‬كما‬ ‫سحبت روسٌا سفٌرها من لطر على اثر والعة تفتٌشه المبالػ بها بالدوحة ولم ترسل بدٌل‪.‬‬ ‫تؤتً بعد ذلن ممكلة البحرٌن‪ ،‬وهً مثل بمٌة دول الخلٌج وأشبه الى االمارات فهنان زٌارات مع الجانب الروسً وتعاون التصادي وصل لجعل‬ ‫حجم التبادل التجاري بٌن الطرفٌن ٌصل الً ‪ 138‬ملٌون دوالر أمرٌكً‪ ،‬ولكن اختلفت البحرٌن عن االمارات فً التمارب العسكري فً الفترة‬ ‫االخٌرة مع روسٌا فمد زار ملن البحرٌن روسٌا فً اكتوبر ‪ ،2014‬والسفٌر الروسً فً البحرٌن لال ان بالده مستعدة لتمدٌم الدعم التمنً‬ ‫والعسكري لهم‪ ،‬كما ان لابد الموات الجوٌة الروسٌة تحدث عن تموٌة التعاون مع دول الخلٌج‪ ،‬وطالب ملن البحرٌن على تبادل الخبرات على‬ ‫المستوى العسكري‪.‬‬ ‫ٌعد ما فعلته روسٌا من أجل تمرٌر لرار مجلس األمن رلم ‪ 2216‬بدعم عاصفة الحزم من خالل االمتناع عن التصوٌت تؤكٌدا لما سبك‪ ،‬بالرؼم‬ ‫من اختالفهم فً شك وجود االسد‪ ،‬خاصة مع تفضٌل المملكة السعودٌة للتعاون مع روسٌا فً مواجهة داعش عن امرٌكا‪.481‬‬ ‫ولد لامت عدة دول بفرض عموبات التصادٌة على روسٌا بسبب موالفها فً االزمة االوكرانٌة‪ ،‬وهو ما تعانً منه روسٌا حالٌا وترى فً‬ ‫السعودٌة طوق النجاة لتلن المعاناة‪ ،‬وهو ما تشجعه المملكة للمٌام به عن طرٌك االستثمار فً موسكو ممابل الصدالة الجدٌدة أو بمعنً أصح‬ ‫"الحماٌة الجدٌدة"‪.482‬‬ ‫التمارب الخلٌجً ‪ -‬اإلٌرانً‬‫فً ناحٌة أخرى بحثت الوالٌات المتحدة عن طرٌك الربٌس باران أوباما عن حال بدٌل ٌوافك علٌه جمٌع األطراؾ فً المنطمة وخاصة‬ ‫السعودٌة عمب تولٌع االتفالٌة النووٌة وٌولؾ عملٌات عاصفة الحزم وٌعٌد األمن واالستمرار للٌمن‪ ،‬وذلن سرا فً لمة كامب دٌفٌد األخٌرة‬ ‫األمراء الخلٌجٌن‪ ،‬حٌث بحثت الوالٌات المتحدة على شبه تمارب بٌن المملكة السعودٌة وخصمها اللدود الجمهورٌة اإلٌرانٌة‪ ،‬وهما ٌمثالن‬ ‫العامالن الربٌسٌان ولو بطرٌمة ؼٌر مباشرة فً األزمة الٌمنٌة الحالٌة‪ ،‬وهو ما اللى ردود فعل متباٌنة‪.‬‬ ‫كان التمارب الذي ٌنشده الربٌس األمرٌكً لابما على أن ٌكون التعامل مع االتفاق النووي على أساس انه ٌهدؾ الى تعزٌز األمن واالستمرار فً‬ ‫المنطمة ولٌس الى تؤجٌج حدة الصراعات المابمة‪ ،‬وأن تتولؾ إٌران عن التصرؾ على أساس أنها الدولة االللٌمٌة المهٌمنة وأن تعترؾ الدول‬ ‫الخلٌجٌة فً الممابل بها على أنها دولة مهمة لها مصالح من حمها الدفاع‪ ،‬كذلن أن تتخذ المٌادة اإلٌرانٌة اجراءات ملموسة محددة من أجل تؤكٌد‬ ‫‪ - http://goo.gl/TpuFEK‬نماط مهمة فً لرار مجلس األمن بشؤن الٌمن‪ ،‬سكاي نٌور‪ 02 ،‬أبرٌل ‪،7002‬‬ ‫‪ - http://goo.gl/Sk16VP‬لادة الخلٌج إلً موسكو‪ ،‬إلً أٌن ٌؤخذهم الملك‪ ،‬ساسة بوست‪ 07 ،‬أؼسطس ‪،7002‬‬

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‫‪481‬‬ ‫‪482‬‬

‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫احترامها مبادئ حسن الجوار والعمل جدٌا على بناء الثمة مع الدول الخلٌجٌة وولؾ تدخالتها فً شإونها الداخلٌة ووضع حد لنشاطاتها‬ ‫المزعزعة لالستمرار فً عدد من دول المنطمة‪ ،‬وٌجب ان تتمتع المٌادة اإلٌرانٌة بدور مسإول فً المنطمة وتمتنع عن محاولة فرض مطالبها‬ ‫وشروطها على اآلخرٌن‪.‬‬ ‫وهذ ما لد ٌإدي الً انجاز تمارب تدرٌجً بٌن الدول الخلٌجٌة وإٌران ٌمكن ان ٌحدث تؽٌٌرات مهمة فً المنطمة وٌساعد على حل عدد من‬ ‫النزاعات االللٌمٌة الخطٌرة‪.‬‬ ‫جدٌر بالذكر أنه أثناء الحصار االمرٌكً تمكنت إٌران من الدخول إلً أعماق المنطمة بتلن الموة‪،‬مما ٌثٌر الململدى الخلٌج العربً بخصوص‬ ‫االنفراجة االلتصادٌة على اٌران‪ ،‬خاصة ولد كان هنان تصرٌحات من طرؾ السٌد حسن نصر هللا زعٌم حزب هللا اللبنانً‪ ،‬الذي ٌراه‬ ‫الخلٌجٌون كوكٌل لها فً لبنان‪ ،‬حٌث لال لبٌل التولٌع على االتفالٌة "انتظروا ما سوؾ ٌنجم عن االتفاق"‪.‬‬ ‫كما إن البعض ٌرى إن خطة اوباما فً رفع العموبات عن اٌران الذي لد ٌإدي إلً التؽٌر من اٌدولوجٌة الحكم فً طهران مع اهتمامه أكثر‬ ‫بالنواحً االلتصادٌة بدال من السٌاسٌة‪ ،‬هو أمر بعٌد المنال‪ ،‬حٌث ٌرى بعض الخبراء أن عودة تدفك النفط اإلٌرانً إلً األسواق سوؾ ٌؽرق‬ ‫سوق النفط خالل سنوات للٌلة‪ ،‬وبالتالً فهً عودة لإلنتاج فً إطار انحسار كبٌر علً الطلب علً تلن المادة‪ ،‬مما سوؾ ٌإثر فً سعرها‪ ،‬وهو‬ ‫تؤثٌر ٌتضرر منه كل المنتجٌن‪.483‬‬ ‫التداعٌات اإللتصادٌة على الٌمن بعد العاصفة‬‫فً مطلع العام الحالً أعلن البنن المركزي الٌمنً أن البنون المحلٌة والتجار الٌمنٌٌن لن ٌتمكنوا من توفٌر العمالت األجنبٌة باألسعار الرسمٌة‬ ‫الالزمة إلستٌراد السلع األساسٌة مثل األرز والسكر‪ ،‬وذلن بسبب تفالم األزمة الٌمنٌة‪.‬‬ ‫ومن المتولع أن ٌكون لتلن الخطوة عامل كبٌر فً زٌادة األزمة اإلنسانٌة فً الٌمن‪ ،‬والتً تشهد تطورا بالػ الملك منذ بداٌة الحرب بٌن الحوثٌٌن‬ ‫الذٌن ٌسٌطروا على العاصمة صنعاء وحكومة الربٌس عبدربه منصور هادي المدعوم من التحالؾ العربً بمٌادة السعودٌة‪.‬‬ ‫ولد تحدث بعض التجار عن نجاح البنن المركزي من توفٌر السلع األساسٌة حتى بداٌة شهر فبراٌر الماضً عن طرٌك ثبات سعر الصرؾ‬ ‫الرسمً والذي وصل إلً ‪ 215‬لاير ٌمنً ممابل كل دوالر واحد‪ ،‬ولكن البنن المركزي أعلن عن عدم لدرته على توفٌر ؼطاء لشراء الواردات‬ ‫بالسعر الرسمً للصرؾ‪ ،‬بل وأنه طالب التجار بشراء العمالت األجنبٌة من السوق السوداء حٌث ٌصل سعر الدوالر الواحد هنان إلً ‪256‬‬ ‫لاير ٌمنً‪.‬‬ ‫ومع تلن التطورات األخٌرة فً األزمة اإللتصادٌة بالٌمن‪ ،‬حذرت منظمة األؼذٌة والزراعة التابعة لألمم المتحدة "فاو" من أزمة ضخمة فً‬ ‫الٌمن‪ ،‬حٌث إن خطر المجاعة ٌهدد أكثر من نصؾ سكان الشعب الٌمنً بسبب نمص الؽذاء‪.484‬‬ ‫مفاوضات ما بعدعاصفة الحزم‬‫بعد لرابة عاما كامل من العملٌات العسكرٌة بٌن التحالؾ العربً ولوات الحوثٌٌن فً الٌمن‪ ،‬تمكنت األمم المتحدة فً أبرٌل من عام ‪ 2016‬من‬ ‫إلرار هدنة لولؾ اطالق النار بٌن جمٌع األطراؾ‪ ،‬وذلن تمهٌدا للدخول فً مفاوضات سلمٌة لٌتم إجراء تلن المفاوضات فً حال نجاح تلن‬ ‫الهدنة من الجانبٌٌن فً دولة الكوٌت بٌن الربٌس عبدربه منصور هادي والحوثٌٌن‪ ،‬وذلن على أن ٌبدأ ولؾ إطالق النٌران مساء األحد الموافك‬ ‫‪ 11‬أبرٌل من عام ‪.2016‬‬

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‫ هل ثمة جسر ممكن بٌن إٌران والعرب‪ ،‬األهرام الرلمً‪ 72 ،‬أؼسطس ‪،7002‬‬‫‪http://digital.ahram.org.eg/articaldetails.aspx?Serial=1902299&part=2‬‬ ‫‪484‬‬

‫‪ - http://www.reuters.com/article/yemen-security‬البنن المركزي الٌمنً ٌتولؾ عن تؽطٌة صادرات األرز والسكر‪ 07 ،‬فبراٌر ‪،7002‬‬‫‪imports-idUSL8N15Y4BS‬‬

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‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫ولد كانت من ضمن شروط الهدنة التزامات بحرٌة دخول ؼٌر ممٌدة للمساعدات اإلنسانٌة لجمٌع أرجاء الٌمن‪ ،‬حٌث لال برنامج األؼذٌة العالمً‬ ‫محافظات الٌمن وعددها ‪ 22‬محافظة على شفا المجاعة‪ ،‬ولد لال التابع لألمم المتحدة أن الحرب تسببت فً كارثة إنسانٌة فؤصبحت نصؾ‬ ‫المبعوث الخاص لألمم المتحدة فً الٌمن اسماعٌل ولد الشٌخ أحمد فً بٌان أن لجنة تضم ممثلٌن عسكرٌٌن من الجانبٌن ستعمل على تحمٌك‬ ‫تماسن الهدنة‪.485‬‬ ‫ومن ناحٌة أخرى أعلنت لٌادة لوات التحالؾ العربً العاملة فً الٌمن بزعامة السعودٌة التزامها بولؾ إطالق النار فً البالد استجابة لطلب‬ ‫الربٌس الٌمنً عبد ربه منصور هادي‪ ،‬وفً بٌان رسمً أكد الحوثٌون أن لوات الربٌس السابك علً عبد هللا صالح‪ ،‬المتحالفة معهم‪ ،‬سوؾ‬ ‫تلتزم بها أٌضا‪.486‬‬ ‫ونملت وكالة األنباء الٌمنٌة "سبؤ" التً ٌسٌطر علٌها الحوثٌون عن من وصفته بالناطك الرسمً باسم الموات المسلحة العمٌد الركن شرؾ ؼالب‬ ‫لممان تؤكٌده االلتزام بولؾ إطالق النار إبتداء من منتصؾ لٌل األحد‪.487‬‬ ‫ومع سرٌان الهدنة تجددت بعض الهجمات واالتهامات من كال الطرفٌن باختراق الهدنة‪ ،‬ولكن ما أجمع علٌه الطرفان استمرار الهدنة‪ ،‬حتى عمد‬ ‫المشاورات فً الكوٌت‪ ،‬والتً ممرر لها أن تعمد بعد أسبوع من سرٌان الهدنة‪ ،‬ومن المتفك علٌه أٌضا أن تنتهً الهدنة بمجرد انتهاء مشاورات‬ ‫الكوٌت‪ ،‬أو إمكانٌة تمدٌدها حال استمرار المفاوضات‪.‬‬ ‫الحادي عشر‪ :‬حموق االنسان‬

‫حموق االنسان فً الٌمن تعرؾ بتدهورها من لبل األحداث الحالٌة وتمرد الحوثٌون‪ ،‬وذلن لبل الثورة فً عام ‪ ،2011‬وكان بجانب الماعدة‬ ‫كعامل أساسً لتدهور حموق اإلنسان ٌوجد أٌضا الحوثٌون والحكومة الٌمنٌة الذٌن لهم مسإلٌة كبٌرة فً تدهور األوضاع‪ ،‬وذلن بسبب الحروب‬ ‫المتتالٌة بٌن الجانبٌٌن الٌمنً والحوثً منذ عام ‪ 2004‬وحتى ‪.2010‬‬ ‫ومع العام السابك ‪ 2015‬خرج تمرٌر مفصل عن منظمة هٌومن راٌتش ووتش ٌشرح الوضع االنسانً فً المٌن وما وصل إلٌه من تدهور فً‬ ‫عدة نماط وفما لتمرٌر منظمة هٌومن راٌتس ووتش لعام ‪ 2015‬أهمها‪:488‬‬ ‫‪-‬االعتداءات على العاملٌن فً مجال الصحة‬

‫وردت تمارٌر بشؤن لٌام ُمماتلو الماعدة بإحضار عدد من أطبابهم لعالج جرحاهم فً احدى المستشفٌات‪ ،‬عمب إجالء طالم العاملٌن‬ ‫فً المستشفى لسرا‪ .‬وفضال عن هذا‪ ،‬لام مماتلو تنظٌم الماعدة بإطالق النار على حافلة صؽٌرة‪ ،‬تنمل أشخاص ٌعملون بؤحد‬ ‫المستشفٌات العسكرٌة فً مدٌنة عدن‪ ،‬جنوبً الٌمن‪ٌ ،‬وم ‪ٌ 15‬ونٌو ولتل ما ال ٌمل عن ‪ 6‬أشخاص‪ ،‬وجرحوا ‪ 9‬أشخاص آخرٌن‬ ‫على األلل‪.‬‬ ‫حموق السٌدات والفتٌات‬‫تواجه السٌدات فً الٌمن تمٌٌزا على مستوى المانون‪ ،‬فال ٌمكن للسٌدات الزواج دون إذن من ولى األمر الذكر؛ وال تتاح لهن نفس‬ ‫الحموق ال ُمتاحة للرجال فً الطالق‪ ،‬أو المٌراث‪ ،‬أو حضانة األطفال‪.‬‬ ‫‪485‬‬

‫‪ - http://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-idUSKCN0X80OP‬توتر فً هدنة الٌمن‪ 00 ،‬أبرٌل ‪،7002‬‬ ‫‪ - https://goo.gl/FFK2q4‬بدء سرٌان الهدنة فً الٌمن‪ 00 ،‬أبرٌل ‪،7002‬‬ ‫‪487‬‬ ‫ الحرب فً الٌمن الهدنة ال تزال سارٌة‪ 00 ،‬أبرٌل ‪،7002‬‬‫‪http://www.bbc.com/arabic/middleeast/2016/04/160410_yemen_truce_respect‬‬ ‫‪488‬‬ ‫‪ - https://www.hrw.org/ar/world-report/2015/country-chapters/268197‬التمرٌر العالمً ‪ :7002‬الٌمن‪ ،‬هٌومن راٌتس ووتش‪،‬‬ ‫‪486‬‬

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‫اتخذت الحكومة الٌمنٌة بعض اإلجراءات فً هذا الصدد مثل مشروع المانون الذي ألر الحد األدنى لسن الزواج لٌصبح ‪ 18‬عاما‪،‬‬ ‫كما ٌنص على عموبات جنابٌة بالحبس لفترات تتراوح بٌن شهرٌن إلى عام واحد‪ ،‬إضافة إلى ؼرامة مالٌة تصل إلى ‪ 400‬ألؾ‬ ‫دٌنار ٌمنً (‪ 1,860‬دوالرا أمرٌكٌا) ألي شخص مختص ٌموم بتحرٌر عمد الزواج مع علمه بؤن أحد العروسٌن على األلل لم ٌبلػ‬ ‫الثامنة عشرة من العمر بعد‪.‬‬ ‫األطفال والصراع المسلح‬‫لمد أدت المواجهات ال ُمسلحة فً عمران وصنعاء وشبوة إلى إتالؾ وتدمٌر ‪ 41‬مدرسة على األلل‪ ،‬ولٌام الموات المسلحة باحتالل‬ ‫حوالً ‪ 6‬مدارس فً ‪ 2014‬طبما لوزارة التربٌة والتعلٌم‪ ،‬عالوة على ذلن‪ ،‬تم استخدام ‪ 31‬مدرسة فً إٌواء أشخاص من النازحٌن‬ ‫داخلٌا‪ .‬وفً شهر نوفمبر وحده‪ ،‬دفع المتال فً إب السلطات إلى إؼالق ‪ 169‬مدرسة توفر الخدمة التعلٌمٌة لـ ‪ 92‬ألؾ طالب‬ ‫مإلتا‪ ،‬ثم لامت بإعادة فتحها بعد أسبوع‪ .‬وفً محافظة البٌضاء‪ ،‬ظلت ‪ 11‬مدرسة مؽلمة فً مدٌرٌة رداع اعتبارا من ‪31‬‬ ‫أكتوبروهو ما أدى إلى حرمان ‪ 6000‬طالبا من الدراسة‪.‬‬ ‫الغارات الجوٌة األمرٌكٌة بطائرات دون طٌار‬‫استمرت الوالٌات المتحدة األمرٌكٌة فً شن ؼارات بطابرات دون طٌار ضد أعضاء مزعومٌن فً تنظٌم الماعدة فً جزٌرة‬ ‫العرب‪ ،‬ولد أفادت منظمات بحثٌة مستملة بولوع ‪ 23‬ؼارة فً الٌمن فً الفترة من ٌناٌر وحتى نوفمبر‪.‬‬ ‫وكانت ؼارة أمرٌكٌة لد أصابت من لبل موكب زفاؾ فً دٌسمبر‪ ،‬نتج عنها ممتل ‪ 12‬شخص واصابة ما ال ٌمل عن ‪ 15‬آخرٌن‪.‬‬ ‫االستخدام الغٌر المانونً لأللغام األرضٌة‬‫اعترفت الحكومة الٌمنٌة فً نوفمبر ‪ ،2013‬فً ردها على تمارٌر صادرة عن منظمة "هٌومن راٌتس ووتش" وؼٌرها‪ ،‬اعترفت‬ ‫من خاللها بولوع انتهان لمعاهدة حظر األلؽام فً ‪ ،2011‬خالل االنتفاضة التً أطاحت بحكومة على عبد هللا صالح فً نهاٌة‬ ‫المطاؾ‪ .‬وكانت لوات الحرس الجمهوري‪ ،‬الموالٌة لحكومة صالح‪ ،‬لد زرعت آالؾ األلؽام ال ُمضادة لألفراد عام ‪ 2011‬فً بنً‬ ‫جرموز‪ ،‬شمالً صنعاء‪ ،‬التً تسببت فً العدٌد من الخسابر فً صفوؾ المدنٌٌن‪ ،‬ولمد لامت "هٌومن راٌتس ووتش" بتسجٌل ما ال‬ ‫ٌمل عن ‪ 7‬حوادث جدٌدة لخسابر فً صفوؾ المدنٌٌن جراء األلؽام األرضٌة‪ ،‬من بٌنها حالة وفاة واحدة‪ ،‬منذ أبرٌل ‪ ،2014‬ولمد‬ ‫تسببت األلؽام األرضٌة فً المنطمة فً لتل ما ال ٌمل عن شخصٌن وجرح عشرٌن آخرٌن‪ ،‬منذ أواخر عام ‪.2011‬‬ ‫االتجار بالبشر‬‫ازدهر االتجار بالبشر فً الٌمن منذ ‪ ،2006‬وخاصة منذ ضعؾ سٌطرة الحكومة على بعض المناطك فً أعماب انتفاضة ‪،2011‬‬ ‫حٌث ٌموم المتجرون باحتجاز المهاجرٌن األفارلة فً معسكرات احتجاز‪ ،‬وتعذٌبهم بؽرض ابتزاز المال من ذوٌهم‪ ،‬وؼالبا ما ٌتم‬ ‫هذا بتواطإ من مسإولٌن محلٌٌن‪ ،‬ولد أعلنت الحكومة أنها شرعت فً المٌام بعدة ُمداهمات ضد ال ُمهربٌن عمب صدور تمرٌر‬ ‫"هٌومن راٌتس ووتش" الذي ٌوثك صناعة االتجار بالبشر‪.‬‬ ‫االعتداءات على الصحفٌٌن‬‫ٌذكر أنه فً النصؾ األول من عام ‪ ،2014‬لامت مإسسة ٌمنٌة لرصد حرٌة الصحافة تدعى "مإسسة الحرٌة" بتسجٌل ‪148‬‬ ‫والعة اعتداء طالت عاملٌن بوسابل إعالم‪ ،‬وترواحت من المضاٌمة اللفظٌة إلى التهدٌد ومصادرة ونهب وتدمٌر ممتلكات‬ ‫وال ُمالحمات المضابٌة ال ُمسٌسة واالحتجاز بؽٌر سند لانونً وحالة لتل واحدة‪ ،‬كما أن الحكومة لم تمم بإدانة االعتداءات‪ ،‬أوالتحمٌك‬ ‫فٌها أو إخضاع المسإولٌن عنها للمحاسبة‪ ،‬ولم تتخذ الحكومة أٌضا تدابٌر أوسع نطالا لحماٌة الصحفٌٌن‪.‬‬

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‫عموبة اإلعدام‬‫ال ٌ زال الٌمن ٌطبك عموبة اإلعدام فً جرابم المتل‪ ،‬وؼٌرها من الجرابم‪ ،‬إال أن السلطات ال تنشر بٌانات بشؤن استخدامها وال تموم‬ ‫بتنفٌذ اإلعدام علنا؛ وهو عادة ٌتم رمٌا بالرصاص‪ ،‬ولمد لام الٌمن فً الماضً بتنفٌذ حكم اإلعدام بحك أحداث جانحٌن – المحكوم‬ ‫علٌهم فً جرابم ارتكبوها لبل أن ٌبلؽوا الثامنة عشرة من العمر – إال أنه لم تصدر أو تُنفذ أحكام باإلعدام بحك أحداث جانحٌن فً‬ ‫عام ‪ ،2014‬عمب ضؽط دولً‪ ،‬على حد علم "هٌومن راٌتس ووتش"‪.‬‬ ‫عاصفة الحزم‬‫كلؾ الصراع الدابر بٌن دول الخلٌج فً تحالؾ عاصفة الحزم من جهة والحوثٌون من جهة أخرى الشعب الٌمنً لرابة ‪ 6000‬لتٌل‬ ‫من بٌنهم أكثر ‪ 400‬طفل‪ ،‬كما اضطر ‪ 1.4‬ملٌون نسمة من سكان الٌمن إلً النزوح داخلٌا جراء النزاعات‪ ،‬وٌحتاج لرابة ‪%80‬‬ ‫من سكان الٌمن إلً المساعدات االنسانٌة من لبٌل المٌاه واالؼذٌة والولود والمؤوى‪.‬‬ ‫ووفما للموانٌن الدولٌة فإن المانون اإلنسانً الدولً ٌنص على التصار توجٌه الهجمات نحو األهداؾ العسكرٌة فمط‪ ،‬وٌحظر المانون‬ ‫شن هجمات مباشرة على المدنٌٌن أو البنٌة التحتٌة المدنٌة‪ ،‬ولكن التحالؾ كان له العدٌد من الضربات على األهداؾ المدنٌة‪ ،‬ولد‬ ‫عثرت منظمة العفو الدولٌة على أدلة تشٌر إلى استخدام لوات التحالؾ لذخابر عنمودٌة ٌُحظر استخدامها بموجب المانون الدولً‪ ،‬إذ‬ ‫تنطلك من تلن الذخابر العنمودٌة العشرات من "المنٌبالت" الصؽٌرة التً تسمط على األرض دون أن تنفجر ما ٌجعلها تتسبب الحما‬ ‫بإصابات مروعة‪.‬‬ ‫وفً عدن وتعز‪ ،‬شن مماتلون من الجانبٌن هجمات عشوابٌة على مناطك مكتظة بالمدنٌٌن‪ ،‬مستخدمٌن فً ذلن أسلحة تفتمر للدلة من‬ ‫لبٌل لذابؾ المدفعٌة والهاون وصوارٌخ ؼراد‪ ،‬كما ٌنشط مماتلو الطرفٌن فً وسط األحٌاء السكنٌة وٌمومون بإطالق هجماتهم من‬ ‫داخل المنازل والمدارس والمستشفٌات أو على ممربة منهم‪.489‬‬ ‫الثانً عشر‪ :‬مستمبل العاللات الثنائٌة وخٌارات الوالٌات المتحدة اإلستراتٌجٌة‬ ‫تعد الٌمن دولة ذات مكانة هامة فً منطمة الشرق األوسط عامة والخلٌج خاصة‪ ،‬حٌث أن وجودها ٌمرب دول الخلٌج‪ ،‬وكذلن لربها‬ ‫نوعا ما من إٌران جعلها تمع تحت أنظار الكثٌر وخاصة كال من إٌران والسعودٌة‪.‬‬ ‫وجود الٌمن فً تلن المنطمة جعلها ممرا للحرب المذهبٌة بٌن إٌران والسعودٌة‪ ،‬كذلن الحرب اإللتصادٌة فً العالم بؤجمعه‪ ،‬وهو ما‬ ‫ٌشكل خطرا على مسعى الوالٌات المتحدة فً حفظ السالم واالستمرار بتلن المنطمة‪ ،‬ككا أن مولع الٌمن الذي ٌطل على الممرات‬ ‫التجارٌة الدولٌة عن طرٌك باب المندب له تؤثٌر على تجارة النفط العالمٌة واألمرٌكٌة‪ ،‬كذلن دورها فً محاربة اإلرهاب وتنظٌم‬ ‫الماعدة فً المنطمة والتً تتخذ من األراضً الٌمنٌة مركزا لها‪.‬‬ ‫كل تلن العوامل جعلت الوالٌات المتحدة تبحث عن الخٌارات األمثل لحل األزمة الٌمنٌة‪ ،‬بما ال ٌإثر على حركة التجارة العالمٌة‪،‬‬ ‫وكذلن الحفاظ على مستوٌات أسعار النفط بشكل كبٌر بما ال ٌإثر على الوالٌات المتحدة وحلفاإها‪ ،‬فمع تؽٌر السٌاسات اإللتصادٌة‬ ‫للعدٌد من الدول عمب عاصفة الحزم‪ ،‬أصبح العالم ٌتسآل عن كٌفٌة تصرؾ الوالٌات المتحدة مع تلن األزمة‪ ،‬وهل سٌظل حلفاء‬ ‫واشنطن فً المنطمة على نفس أوضاعهم فً السابك؟ كذلن بحث الوالٌات المتحدة عن حلول لألزمة اإلنسانٌة فً الٌمن ومحاولة‬ ‫الوصول لحل ٌعٌد االستمرار للمنطمة من أجل محاربة إرهاب تنظٌم الماعدة‪ ،‬وإمكانٌة تمدٌم الدعم اإللتصادي والعسكري‬ ‫واللوجٌستً فً حالة التوصل إلتفاق ٌرضً الجمٌع‪.‬‬

‫‪ - https://www amnesty.org/ar/latest/news/2015/09/yemen-the-forgotten-war.‬الٌمن الحرب المنسٌة‪ ،‬منظمة العفو الدولٌة‪،‬‬

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‫لٌبٌا ‪ ..‬مستمبل منتظر وانمسامات مستمرة‬ ‫اوال‪ :‬تمهٌد‬ ‫ثمكنت لٌبٌا منذ فترة التحرر الوطنً من االستعمار االٌطالً من فرض نفسها على الساحة الدولٌة‪ ،‬وذلن بسبب أهمٌتها الكبرى فً‬ ‫الحرب العالمٌة الثانٌة وما بعد انتهابها‪ ،‬ولد زاد الزخم والمنالشات حول لٌبٌا عمب صعود العمٌد الراحل معمر المذافً إلً سدة‬ ‫الرباسة فً الجمهاٌرٌة الجدٌدة‪ ،‬ومع تصرفاته التً كادت أن تإدي إلً حروب لوٌة ضد بالده‪ ،‬كما أن للٌبٌا أهمٌة كبرى علً‬ ‫الصعٌد االلتصادي حٌث تعد ثانً أكبر دولة مصدرة للنفط فً أفرٌمٌا وهو ما ٌزٌد من أهمٌتها‪.‬‬ ‫ومع سموط المذافً بعد حرب استمرت لشهور مع مناصري ثورة ‪ 17‬من فبراٌر تحولت لٌبٌا من الدولة ذات المكانة الكبرى فً‬ ‫المجتمع الدولً إلً مشكلة معمدة األطراؾ‪ ،‬وظهرت التساإالت حول لٌبٌا الدٌممراطٌة الجدٌدة ومسعاها الستعادة االمن والتعاون‬ ‫مع دول العالم من اجل عودة صادرات النفط اللٌبً التً طالما تؤثرت فً عهد المذافً‪ ،‬وكذلن أهمٌتها الكبرى فً محاربة االرهاب‬ ‫الناشا فً المنطمة العربٌة وخصٌصا المؽرب العربً‪ ،‬ومن هنا أصبحت لٌبٌا المضٌة المهمة ذات المستمبل الؽامض‪.‬‬

‫‪490‬‬

‫‪ -‬دٌموغرافٌة لٌبٌا‬

‫‪ - http://goo.gl/g3l9PE‬سبها ‪ ..‬بوابة لٌبٌا إلً إلً الصحراء الكبرى‪ ،‬الجزٌرة‪.‬نت‪ٌ 2 ،‬ولٌو ‪،7007‬‬

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‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫لٌبٌا هً دولة عربٌة تمع فً شمال لارة إفرٌمٌا‪ ،‬وتبلػ مساحتها ‪ 1.774.440‬كم مربع‪ ،‬وٌحدها من الشمال البحر األبٌض‬ ‫المتوسط‪ ،‬ومن الشرق مصر والجنوب الشرلً السودان‪ ،‬بٌنما الؽرب تمع كال من تونس والجزابر‪ ،‬وجنوبا ٌحٌط بها كال من تشاد‬ ‫والنٌجر‪ ،‬وتبلػ مساحة الساحل اللٌبً لرابة ‪ 1770‬كم‪ٌ ،‬وجد فً لٌبٌا ‪ 22‬محافظة ٌعٌش بها ما ٌمارب ‪ 6.097.556‬نسمة‪،‬‬ ‫وٌسكن لرابة ‪ %90‬من سكان لٌبٌا فً ‪ %10‬فمط من مساحتها الكبرى‪ ،‬وذلن حٌث المدن الساحلٌة‪ ،‬وٌؽلب على المجتمع اللٌبً‬ ‫الدٌانة االسالمٌة حٌث إن ‪ %97‬من السكان من المسلمٌن‪ ،‬بٌنما ‪ٌ %3‬نتمون لدٌانات أخرى‪.491‬‬ ‫ثانٌا‪ :‬األهمٌة االستراتٌجٌة‬ ‫ المولع‬‫و بناء على مولعها الجؽرافً تعد لٌبٌا جسرا ٌربط بٌن أفرٌمٌا وأوروبا‪ ،‬كما أدى مولعها على الساحل الجنوبً للمتوسط إلى تؤثرها‬ ‫تؤثر مباشر باألحداث التارٌخٌة المهمة التً عرفتها منطمة البحر المتوسط‪ ،‬ومن أهم موانبها بنؽازي وطرابلس‪ ،‬هذا وتمثل لٌبٌا‬ ‫بمولعها اإلستراتٌجً حلمة وصل مهمة بٌن مشرق الوطن العربً ومؽربه‪ ،‬ولهذا السبب ٌظهر هنان التماء وامتزاج التٌارات الثمافٌة‬ ‫والحضارٌة العربٌة اإلسالمٌة‪.‬‬ ‫ التصادٌا‬‫التصادٌا تعد لٌبٌا من أكبر الدول النفطٌة فً المارة األفرٌمٌة‪ ،‬وتوجد فٌها خمسة حمول ضخمة تتركز فً الشرق والجنوب‪ ،‬وبلؽت‬ ‫لٌمة صادراتها للدول األوروبٌة المرٌبة من الساحل اللٌبً على البحر المتوسط‪ ،‬مبات الملٌارات من الدوالرات‪.‬‬ ‫ولد بدأ اكتشاؾ النفط ألول مرة فً لٌبٌا عام ‪ ،1955‬وتحظى لٌبٌا بؤكبر احتٌاطً نفطً فً أفرٌمٌا‪ ،‬وتنتج ٌومٌا ملٌونا و مبة ألؾ‬ ‫برمٌل مما ٌعنً أن االحتٌاط سٌكفٌها أكثر من سبعٌن عاما بمعدالت اإلنتاج نفسها إن لم تكتشؾ منابع جدٌدة لذهب لٌبٌا األسود‪ٌ ،‬عد‬ ‫النفط اللٌبً من أؼلى أنواع النفط فً العالم لجودته العالٌة إضافة إلى سهولة نمله وتكرٌره‪.‬‬ ‫كانت لٌبٌا تنتج حوالً ملٌون وسبعمبة ألؾ برمٌل نفط ٌومٌا إلى حدود شهر فبراٌر عام ‪ 2011‬تصدر ؼالبٌته إلى الخارج وخاصة‬ ‫إلى دول أوروبا المتوسطٌة‪ ،‬ووفما لمإشرات مطلع سنة ‪ٌ 2010‬بلػ االحتٌاط النفطً اللٌبً الكلً ما ٌزٌد عن ‪ 45‬ملٌار برمٌل‪، ،‬‬ ‫أي نحو ‪ %3.94‬من احتٌاط العالم‪ ،‬و‪ %6.36‬مما تنتجه المنظمة العربٌة المصدرة للبترول (أوبن)‪ ،‬و‪ %4.87‬مما تنتجه أوبن‬ ‫(الدول المصدرة للنفط)‪ ،‬أما اإلنتاج الٌومً منه‪ ،‬وفك منظمة الدول العربٌة المصدرة للنفط‪ ،‬فٌمدر بنحو ‪ 1.4‬ملٌون برمٌل فً‬ ‫الٌوم‪ ،‬وهو ما ٌشكل ‪ %2.09‬من إنتاج العالم‪ ،‬و‪ %5.1‬من ما تنتجه الدول األعضاء فً أوبن‪ ،‬وبهذا تحتل لٌبٌا المرتبة التاسعة‬ ‫عالمٌا‪.492‬‬ ‫أما االحتٌاطات المإكدة من الؽاز الطبٌعً فتمدر بنحو ‪ 1549‬ملٌار متر مكعب‪ ،‬أي نحو ‪ %0.83‬من احتٌاطً العالم‪ ،‬فً حٌن بلػ‬ ‫المسوق منه ‪ 15.9‬ملٌار متر مكعب‪ ،‬أي ‪ %0.53‬من إجمال الؽاز المسوق فً العالم‪ ،‬وفً موازنة سنة ‪ 2010‬حممت لٌبٌا‬ ‫حجم‬ ‫ّ‬ ‫فابضا لدره ‪ 16‬ملٌار دٌنار لٌبً أي ما ٌعادل حوالً ‪ 12‬ملٌار دوالر‪ ،‬وفً الفترة بٌن عامً ‪ 2012 -2008‬تصل المٌمة‬ ‫اإلجمالٌة التً رصدتها البالد لبرنامجها التنموي إلى حوالً ‪ 150‬ملٌار دٌنار لٌبً أي أكثر من ‪ 100‬ملٌار دوالر بملٌل‪.‬‬ ‫وبرؼم تلن األرلام العظٌمة للنفط اللٌبً‪ ،‬فإن نسبة البطالة فً لٌبٌا ٌصل إلً ‪ ،%19.42‬بٌنما نسبة التضخم ‪ ،%3.2‬والدٌن‬ ‫الخارجً ‪ 9.3‬ملٌار دوالر‪ ،‬ومعدل الدخل الفردي للمواطن اللٌبً ٌمترب من ‪ 13‬ألؾ دوالر فً السنة وفك مإشرات ‪2010‬‬ ‫وبالتالً تحتل لٌبٌا على هذا الصعٌد المرتبة الثالثة والثمانٌن عالمٌا متؤخرة بذلن على دول مثل لبنان والؽابون وكرواتٌا‪.‬‬

‫‪ - http://goo.gl/IZPOGW‬معلومات عن لٌبٌا‪ ،‬السفارة اللٌبٌة فً كندا‪،‬‬ ‫‪ - http://goo.gl/u4jzW9‬ذهب لٌبٌا األسود‪ ،‬الجزٌرة‪.‬نت‪ 00 ،‬سبتمبر ‪،7007‬‬

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‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫حتى بداٌة عام ‪ 2011‬كانت لٌبٌا تصدر أنواعا مختلفة من الخام الخفٌؾ من مرافك مختلفة‪ ،‬وتدٌر المإسسة الوطنٌة للنفط ‪-‬‬ ‫المملوكة للدولة‪ -‬منذ تؤسٌسها أواخر الستٌنات إلى اآلن صناعة النفط فً البالد‪.‬‬ ‫ثالثا‪ :‬لمحة تارٌخٌة‬ ‫عرفت لٌبٌا بهذا االسم على المكان الذي ٌمع بٌن مصر وتونس وٌستمر به ما ٌعرؾ بمبٌلة اللٌبو‪ ،‬ولد استوطن االراضً اللٌبٌة‬ ‫العدٌد من الجماعات منهم اإلؼرٌك والبربر والفٌنمٌون والبٌزنطٌٌن والعرب ومن ثم االسبان حتى لدوم الحكم العثمانً وإنشاء والٌة‬ ‫طرابلس‪.‬‬ ‫ االحتالل اإلٌطالً‬‫بعد انضمام لٌبٌا للدولة العثمانٌة‪ ،‬تطلعت إٌطالٌا لتكوٌن إمبراطورٌة استعمارٌة مثل فرنسا و برٌطانٌا‪ ،‬فبعد أن احتلت أرٌترٌا‬ ‫والصومال اتجهت إلى شمال أفرٌمٌا‪ ,‬حٌث اتجهت نحو لٌبٌا لكً تكون مركزا لتوسعاتها فً إفرٌمٌا‪ ،‬وبدأت إٌطالٌا تطبٌك مسعاها‬ ‫عن طرٌك عمد اتفالٌات مع الدول الكبري الحتالل لٌبٌا ‪ ،‬ثم بدأت خطوتها الثانٌة بؤن ٌكون لها مصالح فً لٌبٌا ففتحت فرعا لبنن‬ ‫روما هنان وأنشؤت المدارس اإلٌطالٌة وأصبحت لنصلٌاتها فً طرابلس وبنؽازي مركزٌن للنشاط السٌاسً هنان‪ ،‬فؤصبح‬ ‫لإلٌطالٌٌن العدٌد من المشارٌع التً ٌرؼبون فً حماٌتها‪.‬‬ ‫وعام ‪ 1911‬خططت إٌطالٌا الحتالل لٌبٌا‪ ،‬ووجهت إنذارا لتركٌا بؤن انعدام األمن فً لٌبٌا كاد بهدد مصالحها االلتصادٌة‪ ،‬و بؤنها‬ ‫أهملت الشؤن اللٌبً وكانت تحرض الشعب اللٌبً ضد اإلٌطالٌٌن وتضطهدهم‪ ،‬وبالفعل لبل الموعد المحدد النتهاء اإلنذار فً‬ ‫سبتمبر عام ‪ 1911‬وكانت السفن الحرٌة اإلٌطالٌة فً مٌاه طرابلس تحمل ‪ 39‬ألؾ جندي إٌطالً‪ ،‬وأعلنت إٌطالٌا الحرب على‬ ‫تركٌا‪.‬‬ ‫بدأ لصؾ طرابلس وتم إنزال ‪ 2000‬جندي الحتالل المدٌنة‪ ،‬واستمر المصؾ على حصون طرابلس ثم حصون طبرق‪ ،‬وكانت‬ ‫طبرق أول بمعة لٌبٌة ٌحتلها اإلٌطالٌون‪ ،‬ثم تنازلت تركٌا عن لٌبٌا إلٌطالٌا بموجب معاهدة (أوشً) التً تم التولٌع علٌها فً ‪15‬‬ ‫أكتوبر سنة ‪1912‬م‪ ،‬وكنتٌجة حتمٌة لالحتالل تم إبعاد أكثر من خمسة آالؾ لٌبً إلى الجزر اإلٌطالٌة‪ ،‬ولكن لم ٌتولؾ المجاهدون‬ ‫اللٌبٌون عن مماومتهم لالحتالل اإلٌطالً‪ ،‬وحتى بعد إعدام الشٌخ عمر المختار فً ‪ 16‬سبتمبر ‪ .1931‬لم تهدأ المماومة واستمرت‬ ‫لرابة عامٌن آخرٌن على األلل‪.‬‬ ‫ العهد الملكً‬‫لام اللٌبٌون بإعادة تنظٌم صفوفهم وأعلنوا الجهاد ضد االٌطالٌٌن منذ البداٌة وتحت لٌادة رجال وطنٌٌن منهم الشٌخ سلٌمان البارونً‬ ‫والشٌخ أحمد سٌؾ النصر والسٌد أحمد الشرٌؾ السنوسً ومن معه من السنوسٌٌن فً برلة حتً نالت لٌبٌا استماللها سنة ‪،1951‬‬ ‫وأصبح دمحم ادرٌس السنوسً أول ملون لٌبٌا عمب لرار االمم المتحدة باستمالها وذلن بعد سنوات للٌلة من حكم برٌطانٌا وفرنسا‬ ‫لها‪ ،‬حٌث تولى حكمها بعد الحرب العالمٌة الثانٌة والتً تمكنوا خاللها من طرد اإلٌطالٌٌن‪ ،‬ولد كان الحكم شبه دستوري فً عهد‬ ‫السنوسً والذي انتهى عام ‪ 1969‬بانمالب عسكري عرؾ باسم "ثورة الفاتح"‪.493‬‬

‫‪ - http://goo.gl/hbzUog‬تارٌخ لٌبٌا المعاصر‪ ،‬المعرفة‪،‬‬

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‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫رابعا‪ :‬سنوات المذافً‬ ‫ الدراسة والتكوٌن‬‫تلمى المذافً تعلٌمه فً بلدته فً مدٌنة سبها‪ ،‬وشكل أثناء دراسته األولى مع بعض زمالبه نواة لحركة ثورٌة تؤثر بالربٌس المصري‬ ‫جمال عبد الناصر‪.‬‬ ‫طرد من المدرسة لنشاطاته السٌاسٌة‪ ،‬لكنه أكمل بعد ذلن دراسته فً األكادٌمٌة العسكرٌة فً بنؽازي‪ ،‬وتخرج فٌها عام ‪،1963‬‬ ‫وأرسل فً بعثة للتدرٌب العسكري فً برٌطانٌا عام ‪ ،1965‬وعاد لٌصبح لابدا عسكرٌا لبل أن ٌتولى رباسة لٌبٌا عمب انمالبه على‬ ‫الحكم الملكً السنوسً‪.‬‬ ‫ الوصول للرئاسة‬‫لام المذافً باتخاذ عدة خطوات لبل وصوله لمنصب ربٌس لٌبٌا‪ ،‬حٌث كون مجموعة الضباط الوحدوٌٌن األحرار عام ‪،1964‬‬ ‫ولعب دورا جوهرٌا فً االنمالب على حكم السنوسً آخر ملون لٌبٌا فً األول من سبتمبر عام ‪ ،1969‬فٌما أطلك علٌه الحما اسم‬ ‫"ثورة الفاتح"‪ ،‬وتم إعالن الجمهورٌة فً لٌبٌا التً تحول اسمها فٌما بعد إلى "الجماهٌرٌة‪".‬‬ ‫عرؾ عن المذافً ارتباطه الموي بالربٌس الراحل جمال عبد الناصر‪ ،‬ودعواته الموٌة للوحدة العربٌة‪ ،‬حتى أنه كان من المتحمسٌن‬ ‫للوحدة االندماجٌة مع جٌرانه العرب مثل مصر وتونس‪.‬‬ ‫هذه الحماسة ما لبثت أن اختفت فً مراحل الحمة‪ ،‬حٌث تخلى عن العمك العربً للٌبٌا لصالح العمك االفرٌمً‪ ،‬حتى إنه وضع‬ ‫خرٌطة افرٌمٌا بدال من خرٌطة الوط ن العربً كإحدى الخلفٌات الرسمٌة فً الدولة‪ ،‬ودعا للوحدة األفرٌمٌة كما فعل من لبل مع‬ ‫الدول العربٌة‪ ،‬لبل أن ٌسمً نفسه "ملن ملون أفرٌمٌا"‪.‬‬ ‫فً عام ‪ 1976‬نشر المذافً كتابه األخضر وجعله أٌمونة لجماهٌرٌته‪ ،‬وعرض فٌه ما سماها "النظرٌة العالمٌة الثالثة" التً اعتبرها‬ ‫ت جاوزا للماركسٌة والرأسمالٌة‪ ،‬وتستند إلى حكم الجماهٌر الشعبٌة‪ ،‬واعتمد اللون األخضر لونا رسمٌا فً البالد‪.494‬‬ ‫خامسا‪ :‬النظام السٌاسً‬ ‫ ما لبل الثورة‬‫عرفت لٌبٌا عمب استماللها عام ‪ 1951‬ما ٌعرؾ بالملكٌة الدستورٌة ووجود حكم شبه دٌممراطً‪ ،‬وكلن مع حلول انمالب ‪1969‬‬ ‫تؽٌر األمر برمته‪ ،‬وتحولت لٌبٌا إلً الجماهٌرٌة اللٌبٌة وهو نظام ابتعد تماما عن الدٌممراطٌة واعتمد على سلطة الصوت الواحد ولم‬ ‫ٌإمن بالحٌاة النٌابٌة‪ ،‬ألن المذافً كان ٌرى أن الحٌاة النٌابٌة فٌها إخفاء لدور الشعب‪ ,‬ولكن لم ٌكن لتلن السلطة أي دورا فعال حٌث‬ ‫تراجع هذا المإتمر عن عدة لرارت بعد تعارضها مع رإٌة المذافً‪ ،‬كما أنه كان ٌعمد أسبوعا واحدا فً العام وهو ما ٌجعله ؼٌر‬ ‫أهل التخاذ أٌة لرارات صاببة‪.‬‬

‫‪ - http://goo.gl/uix7Og‬العمٌد معمر المذافً‪ ،‬الجزٌرة‪.‬نت‪ 2 ،‬أكتوبر ‪،7002‬‬

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‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫سادسا‪ :‬العاللات الخارجٌة‬ ‫ الوالٌات المتحدة األمرٌكٌة‬‫شهدت العاللات بٌن الوالٌات المتحدة االمرٌكٌة ولٌبٌا تباٌن كبٌر وعدم استمرار‪ ،‬حٌث توطٌد العاللات أحٌانا والعداء المتبادل فً‬ ‫أحٌان أخرى‪ ،‬ولد بدأت العاللات االمرٌكٌة اللٌبٌة منذ استمالل لٌبٌا عام ‪ ،1951‬وشهدت العاللات بٌن البلدٌن فً بداٌتها تعاون فً‬ ‫المجاالت االلتصادٌة والعسكرٌة وتبادل الزٌارات منذ عام ‪ 1953‬حٌث لام وزٌر الخارجٌة االمرٌكً جون فوستر دالس فً عهد‬ ‫الربٌس دواٌت اٌزنهاور بزٌارة لٌبٌا‪ ،‬كما لام نابب الربٌس األمرٌكً رٌتشارد نٌكسون بتكرار الزٌارة بعد ‪ 4‬أعوام‪.‬‬ ‫ومع اإلطاحة بالملن إدرٌس السنوسً بواسطة مجموعة من الضباط بمٌادة الضابط الشاب معمر المذافً وإعالن لٌام الجمهورٌة‬ ‫العربٌة اللٌبٌة عام ‪ ،1969‬ومن هنا بدأ التوتر فً العاللات بٌن لٌبٌا والوالٌات المتحدة‪ ،‬حٌث لامت الموات الجوٌة األمرٌكٌة بعد‬ ‫عام واحد من حركة معمر المذافً بإخالء لاعدة وٌلس فً لٌبٌا‪ ،‬وتم تؤمٌم لطاع النفط اللٌبً‪ ،‬ومن ثم لامت الوالٌات المتحدة بسحب‬ ‫سفٌرها من طرابلس‪ ،‬وأعلن المذافً الحظر على السفن التابعة لسالح البحرٌة األمرٌكٌة من دخول المٌاه اللٌبٌة عام ‪ ،1973‬وردت‬ ‫الوالٌات المتحدة بعد خمسة أعوام بفرضها حظرا على المعدات العسكرٌة الى لٌبٌا‪ ،‬وفً أعماب لٌام الثورة اإلٌرانٌة عام ‪ 1979‬لام‬ ‫متظاهرون ٌإٌدون تلن الثورة بمهاجمة وإحراق السفارة االمٌركٌة فً طرابلس‪ ،‬ثم لامت الوالٌات المتحدة بطرد أربعة دبلوماسٌٌن‬ ‫لٌبٌٌن واستدعت اثنٌن من دبلوماسٌٌها فً طرابلس‪.‬‬ ‫ومع بداٌة الثمانٌنٌات بدأت حمبة جدٌدة من التوتر بٌن البلدٌن ولكنها أخذت الطابع العسكري‪ ،‬حٌث تم اسماط مماتلتٌن لٌبٌتٌن بنٌران‬ ‫سالح الجو االمٌركً‪ ،‬ولالت لٌبٌا أن اشتباكا بحرٌا مع الموات االمٌركٌة فً خلٌج سرت أدى الى ممتل ‪ 58‬لٌبٌا‪ ،‬وكنتٌجة متسارعة‬ ‫لألحداث اتهمت الوالٌات المتحدة لٌبٌا بالضلوع فً انفجار لنبلة فً ملهى لٌلً فً برلٌن ٌرتاده االمٌركٌون‪ ،‬ثم شنت الوالٌات‬ ‫المتحدة عام ‪ 1986‬ؼارة جوٌة على مدٌنتً طرابلس وبنؽازي مما ادى الى ممتل ‪ 41‬شخصا‪ ،‬وبعد عامٌن كانت الطامة الكبرى‬ ‫على وجه أمرٌكا‪ ،‬حٌث انفجرت طابرة تابعة لخطوط بان امٌركان فوق مدٌنة لوكربً االسكتلندٌة مما ادى الى ممتل ‪ 270‬شخصا‬ ‫كانوا على متن الطابرة وفً مكان سموطها‪ ،‬واتهمت الوالٌات المتحدة لٌبٌا بالضلوع فً تفجٌر الطابرة وتم الطلب باستدعاء عمٌلٌن‬ ‫لٌبٌٌن للمثول أمام المحكمة‪ ،‬ثم لام مجلس األمن بعد ‪ 4‬أعوام من الحادث بإصدر لرارا حمل الرلم ‪ 748‬وٌدعو الى فرض حظر‬ ‫عسكري وجوي على لٌبٌا‪ .‬وتم فرض عموبات التصادٌة جدٌدة على لٌبٌا فً عام ‪.1993‬‬ ‫ومع نهاٌة التسعٌنٌات بدأت األمور تتحسن تدرٌجٌا فً عاللات البلدٌن‪ ،‬حٌث أبرمت لٌبٌا اتفالا مع الوالٌات المتحدة وبرٌطانٌا‬ ‫ٌحاكم بموجبه المتهما ن اللٌبٌان بالضلوع فً تفجٌر لوكربً أمام محكمة اسكتلندٌة تعمد فً هولندا‪ ،‬ثم لبلت لٌبٌا دفع تعوٌضات‬ ‫لعابالت الضحاٌا‪ ،‬وأعلن المذافً تخلً بالده عن اسلحة الدمار الشامل‪ ،‬وتم إعادة العاللات الدبلوماسٌة بشكل رسمً عام ‪،2004‬‬ ‫كما خففت العموبات االلتصادٌة األمرٌكٌة واستؤنؾ تصدٌر النفط اللٌبً‪ ،‬والتمى المذافً بولٌام بٌرنز مساعد وزٌرة الخارجٌة‬ ‫األمرٌكٌة فً طرابلس فً أول لماء مع مسإول أمرٌكً منذ أكثر من ‪ 30‬عام‪ ،‬كما لام المسإول الثانً فً وزارة الخارجٌة‬ ‫األمرٌكٌة جون نٌؽروبونتً بزٌارة لٌبٌا‪ ،‬وفً عام ‪ 2008‬لامت وزٌرة الخارجٌة األمرٌكٌة كوندولٌزا راٌس باستمبال نظٌرها اللٌبً‬ ‫عبد الرحمن شلمم فً واشنطن‪ ،‬كما لامت نفس الوزٌرة بزٌارة العاصمة اللٌبٌة طرابلس و التمت بالزعٌم اللٌبً مع ّمر المدّافً الذي‬ ‫استمبلها فً ممر إلامته بباب العزٌزٌة‪.495‬‬ ‫ مصر‬‫على الرؼم أن حكم الربٌس األسبك لمصر جمال عبد الناصر لم ٌعاصر ثوره المذافى إال عام واحد حٌث توفً عبد الناصر عام‬ ‫‪1970‬م‪ ،‬فمد تؤثرت الثورة اللٌبٌة فً بداٌتها عام ‪ 1969‬بثورة ٌولٌو‪ ،‬ال سٌما أن "المذافً" كان مإمنا بالتجربة الناصرٌة ولذلن‬ ‫سعى فً الثمانى سنوات األولى تطبٌك النموذج االشتراكً كنظام للحكم‪ ،‬كما سعى المذافً للوحدة مع الدولة المصرٌة وذلن بتولٌع‬ ‫‪ - http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-13755445‬لٌبٌا والوالٌات المتحدة – الجدول الزمنً‪ ،‬بً بً سً‪ٌ 70 ،‬ناٌر ‪،7002‬‬

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‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫سمً بالجبهة المومٌة العربٌة‪ ،‬وتوج االمر بولوؾ لٌبٌا الشدٌد بجانب مصر فً‬ ‫مٌثاق طرابلس دٌسمبر ‪ 1969‬الذى تضمن ما ٌ ُ‬ ‫حربها ضد اسرابٌل عام ‪.1973‬‬ ‫وبعد رحٌل عبد الناصر‪ ,‬تؽٌَّرت األوضاع دبت الخالفات بٌن البلدٌن‪ ،‬وذلن فً منتصؾ السبعٌنٌات فً عهد الربٌس المصري‬ ‫الراحل انور السادات‪ ،‬ولد كان السبب الربٌسً للخالؾ هو إتفالٌة كامب دٌفٌد بٌن مصر وإسرابٌل‪ ،‬ووصلت تطورات الخالؾ الً‬ ‫المعارن العسكرٌة بٌن مصر ولٌبٌا فٌما عرؾ بالحرب المصرٌة ‪ -‬اللٌبٌة عام ‪ ،1977‬إلى أن جاء الولت لعوده العاللات الحمٌمٌة‬ ‫بٌن مصر ولٌبٌا وذلن بعد لماء المذافى) مع الربٌس المصرى السابك حسنى مبارن فى المؽرب عام ‪ 1989‬أثناء إنعماد مإتمر الممة‬ ‫العربٌة فى المؽرب ونتج عن هذا تولٌع عشر إتفالٌات تنظم كافه أوجه التعاون بٌن البلدٌن وذلن فى عام ‪.1991‬‬ ‫ومع بدء ظهور أزمة لوكٌربً‪ ،‬والحصار األمرٌكً الذي تُوج بحصار دولً رسمً بمرار من األمم المتحدة عام ‪ ،1992‬زاد‬ ‫التعاون المصرى اللٌبى‪ ،‬ونتج تنسٌك بٌن البلدٌن إلداره األزمة ‪ ,‬وبذلت مصر مساعى لمسانده لٌبٌا على اعتبارها سندا لها فً‬ ‫‪496‬‬ ‫اتصاالتها مع العالم الخارجً‬ ‫ الجزائر‬‫إن وضع العاللات الجزابرٌة ‪ -‬اللٌبٌة كان متوترا أو ؼٌر مستمر فً أحسن األحوال فً عهد المذافً‪ ،‬فبرؼم التوتر الذي كان ٌنشب‬ ‫بٌن المذافً والجزابر فً أحٌان كثٌرة‪ ،‬اال ان بعض الموالؾ اللٌبٌة كولوفها بجانب البولٌسارٌو المدعومة من الجزابر ودعمها‬ ‫بالسالح كان له عوامل فً التوطٌد النوعً للعاللات فٌما بٌنهم‪ ،‬بٌنما كانت لٌبٌا فً اولات اخرى تعمد االتفالٌات االلتصادٌة مع‬ ‫المؽرب العدو االخطر للجزابر مما كان ٌترن لدي الحكومة الجزابرٌة انطباع مملك تجاه تصرفات المذافً‪.‬‬ ‫ تونس‬‫تارٌخ العاللات الدبلوماسٌة وااللتصادٌة بٌن تونس ولٌبٌا لم ٌكن مستمر فً مختلؾ المراحل التارٌخٌة التً مرت على البلدٌن‪ ،‬بل‬ ‫اتسمت العاللات الدبلوماسٌة بٌن الدولتٌن بالتباٌن‪ ،‬حٌث إن لبل انمالب المذافً الذي حول لٌبٌا من الملكٌة للجمهورٌة فً سبتمبر‪.‬‬ ‫ومع حلول عام ‪ 1974‬فً ظل لدوم المذافً عمب انمالب ‪ 1969‬عمد مع بورلٌبة وحدة بٌن البلدٌن لم تستمر اكثر من ‪ 48‬ساعة‪،‬‬ ‫وانملب الوضع بعد ذلن فبعد فشل تجربة الوحدة عام ‪ 1974‬تم طرد ‪ 14‬ألؾ عامل تونسً ثم دخل بورلٌبة والمذافً فً حرب‬ ‫اعالمٌة‪.‬‬ ‫للتمرد المسلّح فً لفصة التونسٌة عام ‪ 1980‬وبالولوؾ وراء انتفاضة‬ ‫وتم توجٌه االتهامات للعمٌد اللٌبً الراحل بتمدٌمه المساندة‬ ‫ّ‬ ‫الخبز نهاٌة ‪ 1983‬وبداٌة ‪ .1984‬ومن ضمن التهم المو ّجهة للحكومة اللٌبٌّة آنذان هً طرد ‪ 3‬آالؾ عامل تونسً عام‬ ‫‪1985‬والتورط فً دعم االتحاد العام التونسً للشؽل فً أزمة ‪ ،1987‬ومع لدوم بن علً لرباسة تونس عام ‪ 1987‬تؽٌرت‬ ‫العاللات بٌن البلدٌن‪ ،‬حٌث دخلت العاللات التونسٌة اللٌبٌة مرحلة هدنة خالل حوالً ربع لرن من حكم الربٌس األسبك بن علً‪ ،‬إذ‬ ‫ساند النظام اللٌبً وصول بن علً للسلطة وعمل نظام بن علً على كسر الحصار المفروض على لٌبٌا‪.‬‬ ‫وبخالؾ العاللات السٌاسٌة‪ ،‬أصبحت لٌبٌا تدرٌجٌا الشرٌن االلتصادي األول لتونس عربٌا وأفرٌمٌا‪ ،‬والشرٌن الخامس لتونس‬ ‫عالمٌا‪ ،‬ومع لٌام الثورة التونسٌة فً دٌسمبر من عام ‪ ،2010‬انتمد المذافً الثورة واستهجن لٌامها‪ ,‬االمر الذي أدى الى حالة من‬ ‫التوجس فً تونس تخوفا من اي مبادرة لد ٌموم بها المدافً إلجهاض الثورة التونسٌة‪.497‬‬

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‫ العاللات السٌاسٌة‪ ،‬الهٌبة العامة لالستعالمات‪ 02 ،‬مارس ‪،7002‬‬‫‪http://www.sis.gov.eg/Ar/Templates/Articles/tmpArticles.aspx?CatID=5304#.VuQ_g31961v‬‬

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‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫ السودان‬‫لم تكن العاللات السودانٌة اللٌبٌة لابمة بشدة على الرؼم من أنهما دولتان متجاورتان‪ ,‬ولكن ذلن حتى العام ‪ 1969‬الذي شهد مٌالد‬ ‫نظامً لحكم عسكري فً البلدٌن بمٌادة النمٌري فً السودان والمذافً فً لٌبٌا‪ ،‬وسرعان ما أظهر النظامان الجدٌدان تماربا كبٌرا‪،‬‬ ‫وبلؽت ذروة التفاهم بٌن النظامٌن لمتها فً ٌولٌو ‪ 1971‬حٌن ألدم المذافً على اإلسهام بفعالٌة فً إحباط انمالب لاده عسكرٌون من‬ ‫الحزب الشٌوعً على نظام نمٌري‪ ,‬حٌث أجبر طابرة برٌطانٌة كانت تحمل لادة االنمالب من لندن إلى الخرطوم على الهبوط فً‬ ‫لٌبٌا وسلمهم للنمٌري‪.‬‬ ‫ولكن منذ منتصؾ ا لسبعٌنٌات بدأت فترة خصومة شرسة بٌن الطرفٌن استمرت حتى أطاحت االنتفاضة السودانٌة فً عام ‪1985‬‬ ‫بالنمٌري‪ ,‬وكان من محطات تلن الفترة أن النظام اللٌبً استضاؾ المعارضة السودانٌة المسلحة‪ ،‬وساعدها فً محاولة فاشلة لؽزو‬ ‫الخرطوم فً ٌولٌو ‪ ,1976‬كما دعمت حكومة الخرطوم الجبهة الوطنٌة إلنماذ لٌبٌا فً محاولة فاشلة لإلطاحة بالمذافً عام ‪.1984‬‬ ‫ومن ناحٌة أخري تم تمدٌم أول دعم عسكري للجٌش الشعبً لتحرٌر السودان عن طرٌك نظام المذافً‪.‬‬ ‫ومع نجاح حزب األمة المومً بزعامة الصادق المهدي‪ ,‬أوثك حلفاء المذافً بٌن الموى السٌاسٌة السودانٌة‪ ,‬بؤكثرٌة مماعد البرلمان‬ ‫وتولى المهدي رباسة الوزراء فً العام ‪ ,1986‬اضطرت الحكومة السودانٌة فً ظل الظروؾ االلتصادٌة الصعبة لالستعانة‬ ‫بالمذافً للحصول على مساعدات مالٌة‪ ،‬فاستجاب لها بتوفٌر إمدادات نفطٌة ومساعدات عسكرٌة أٌضا‪ ،‬ؼٌر أن ذلن لم ٌكن بال‬ ‫بممابل‪ ،‬حٌث لامت حكومة المهدي برد الدٌن عن طرٌك مساعدة لٌبٌا فً حرب تشاد فً ثمانٌنٌات المرن الماضً‪ ,‬فمد طلب المذافً‬ ‫من المهدي أن ٌسمح لموات ما ٌسمى ب"الفٌلك اإلسالمً" اللٌبً بالدخول إلى شرق تشاد عبر دارفور المجاورة‪ ،‬ؼٌر أن أخطر ما‬ ‫نجمت عنه تلن الخطوة أن إللٌم دارفور أصبح ساحة للصراعات اللٌبٌة التشادٌة‪ ,‬كما أدت إلى تدفك وانتشار السالح بكمٌات كبٌرة‬ ‫فً اإلللٌم‪.‬‬ ‫لم ٌفمد نظام المذافً تؤثٌره ودوره فً المشهد السٌاسً السودانً بعد اإلطاحة بحكومة الصادق المهدي باالنمالب العسكري الذي لاده‬ ‫عمر البشٌر فً العام ‪ ,1989‬فمد احتفظ النظام الجدٌد فً الخرطوم بعاللات وثٌمة مع طرابلس زادت تماربا بعد الؽزو العرالً‬ ‫للكوٌت فً العام ‪ ،1990‬حٌث دخل النظام السودانً فً عزلة دولٌة حانمة على خلفٌة ما اعتبره انحٌاز من الخرطوم للجانب‬ ‫العرالً‪.498‬‬ ‫ تشاد‬‫ٌعود الصراع بٌن لٌبٌا وتشاد بشؤن المنطمة الحدودٌة ‪ -‬التً تسمى بإللٌم أوزو‪ -‬إلى ثالثٌنٌات المرن الماضً حٌن تنازلت فرنسا‬ ‫(المستعمرة السابمة لتشاد) لصالح إٌطالٌا (المستعمرة للٌبٌا) عن تلن المنطمة الحدودٌة بٌن البلدٌن‪ ،‬لكن دون ترسٌم نهابً لذلن‬ ‫التنازل‪.‬‬ ‫وبعد وصول العمٌد اللٌبً إلى السلطة عام ‪ 1969‬بادر إلى تؤجٌج الصراع‪ ،‬وإشعال حرب بٌن البلدٌن باحتالل اإلللٌم عام ‪،1972‬‬ ‫وبعد حروب عدٌدة تعرض فٌها جٌش المذافً لهزابم كثٌرة‪ ،‬جنح الطرفان عام ‪ 1990‬إلى السلم‪ ،‬ورفعا لضٌة اإلللٌم إلى محكمة‬ ‫العدل الدولٌة التً حكمت لصالح التشادٌٌن‪ ،‬وتزامن ذلن مع وصول الربٌس التشادي الحالً إدرٌس دٌبً للسلطة‪ ،‬وتحسن العاللات‬ ‫بٌن الطرفٌن إلى مستوٌات هامة‪.499‬‬

‫‪ - http://goo.gl/IXynSq‬العاللات الثنابٌة بٌن تونس ولٌبٌا‪ ،‬الشروق‪ٌ 2 ،‬ونٌو ‪،7002‬‬

‫‪497‬‬

‫‪498‬‬

‫ العاللات السودانٌة اللٌبٌة‪ ،‬الجزٌرة‪.‬نت‪ 72 ،‬أكتوبر ‪،7000‬‬‫‪http://studies.aljazeera.net/ar/reports/2011/10/2011102410261454719.html‬‬ ‫‪499‬‬ ‫‪ - http://goo.gl/AHkNuK‬الحدود اللٌبٌة التشادٌة مالذ المذافً‪ ،‬الجزٌرة‪.‬نت‪ 77 ،‬مارس ‪،7000‬‬

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‫سابعا‪ :‬أسباب لٌام الثورة‬ ‫مع بداٌة الثمانٌنٌات بدأ المذافً فً اتخذا خطوات خارجٌة وداخلٌة كادت أن تودي بحكمه نهابٌا من لٌبٌا‪ ،‬فعلى المستوى الخارجً‬ ‫لامت عاللات المذافً مع الؽرب بالصدام والتوتر بسبب تصرٌحاته وموالفه ونشاطاته التً اعتبرتها الموى الؽربٌة معادٌة لها‬ ‫وداعمة "لإلرهاب الدولً"‪ ،‬ووصل توتر العاللات بٌن الطرفٌن ذروته بمصؾ الطابرات األمٌركٌة ممره صٌؾ عام ‪ ،1986‬وفً‬ ‫عام ‪ 1988‬اتهمت الوالٌات المتحدة وبرٌطانٌا الجماهٌرٌة اللٌبٌة بتدبٌر سموط طابرة شركة الخطوط الجوٌة األمٌركٌة "بان‬ ‫أمٌركان" فوق بلدة لوكربً فً إسكتلندا عام ‪ ،1988‬مما أدى إلى ممتل ‪ 259‬راكبا‪ ،‬إضافة إلى ‪ 11‬شخصا من سكان لوكربً‪.‬‬ ‫ففرضت الوالٌات المتحدة حصارا التصادٌا على لٌبٌا عام ‪.1992‬‬ ‫لكن العاللات بٌن الطرفٌن توطدت كثٌرا بعدما توصلت لٌبٌا إلى تسوٌة لمضٌة لوكربً فً أؼسطس من عام ‪ ،2003‬دفعت‬ ‫بموجبها تعوٌضات بنحو ‪ 2.7‬ملٌار دوالر‪ ،‬وسلمت اثنٌن من مواطنٌها المتهمٌن بالتفجٌر‪ ،‬هما عبد الباسط الممرحً واألمٌن فحٌمة‬ ‫للمضاء اإلسكتلندي لٌحاكمهما فً هولندا‪ ،‬كما لام مجلس االمن برفع العموبات عن لٌبٌا عام ‪ ،2003‬والتً استمرا لرابة العشر‬ ‫سنوات منذ تولٌعها عام ‪ ،1993‬كما تبادل كال من مسإولٌٌن الوالٌات المتحدة ولٌبٌا الزٌارات المختلفة كان اخرها زٌارة وزٌرة‬ ‫الخارجٌة األمرٌكٌة كوندالٌزة راٌس للٌبٌا عام ‪.2008‬‬ ‫أما على المستوي الداخلً للٌبٌا‪ ،‬فما فعله المذافً بالداخل اللٌبً لٌس بالملٌل‪ ،‬فبخالؾ الحكم المنفرد ومنع لٌام االحزاب والتٌارت‬ ‫الدٌممراطٌة‪ ،‬وعدم وجود حٌاة نٌابٌة سلٌمة فً لٌبٌا‪ ،‬كانت لضاٌا حموق االنسان وحرٌة الرأي والتعبٌر واالحتكار االلتصادي هى‬ ‫العامل االكبر لمٌام الثورة فً عام ‪ ،2011‬و ما تبمً من حصٌلة ‪ 42‬عام من الظلم سوي االنفجار من كافة طبمات الشعب وترجع‬ ‫األسباب الً ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ -1‬ضحاٌا الممع فً حادثة أبو سلٌم‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -2‬التصار الربح و العابد من استثمارات النفط علً الربٌس فمط‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -3‬الحصار اإلعالمً و العولمً علً دولة لٌبٌا‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -4‬الحصار الفكري علً افراد الشعب و تهجٌر و نفً المعارضة‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -5‬تهتن البنٌة التحتٌة للدولة‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -6‬انهٌار مستوي التعلٌم‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -7‬زٌادة معدالت الجهل و االمٌة‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -8‬نهب أموال و ثروات الشعب‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -9‬لمع أي ممارسة للحموق السٌاسٌة‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -10‬منع التجمعات و تكوٌن األحزاب‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -11‬االعتماالت العشوابٌة‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -12‬تمولع الدولة داخل حدودها و ال اثر لفاعلٌات دولٌة‪.‬‬ ‫من هنا ثار الشعب من اجل الحرٌة و كسر العبودٌة ذلن المبدأ الذي جعل البلد ترؼب فً تحمٌمه‪.‬‬ ‫ثامنا‪ :‬اندالع الثورة‬ ‫‪ -‬لٌام الثورة‬

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‫بعد كل تلن االسباب المذكورة لامت الثورة اللٌبٌة فً ‪ 17‬من فبراٌر من عام ‪ 2011‬عمب ثورتً مصر وتونس‪ ،‬فمد انتفض‬ ‫الشعب اللٌبً مطالبا برحٌل العمٌد معمر المذافً وإلامة نظام دٌممراطً تعددي‪ ،‬وسرعان ما تحولت الثورة إلى المواجهات المسلحة‬ ‫بٌن الثوار وكتابب المذافً التً لتلت اآلالؾ من المدنٌٌن‪ ،‬وفً خضم هذا النزاع‪ ،‬رفض العمٌد اللٌبً كل المبادرات التً دعت إلى‬ ‫تخلٌه عن الحكم‪ ،‬وواصل تشبثه بالسلطة‪ ،‬متهما الثوار بالخٌانة والعمالة للؽرب‪.‬‬ ‫فتحول األمر إلً حرب أهلٌة بٌن الثوار ولوات المذافً‪ ،‬وفً األٌام العشرة األولى من المتال فً لٌبٌا اتضح عدم لدرة أٌا من‬ ‫الطرفٌن على إزاحة خصمه من الموالع جٌدة التحصٌن‪ .‬فمد كان نظام المذافً الذي ٌسٌطر على الموالع المركزٌة لادر على الحفاظ‬ ‫علٌها بشدة من جٌوب التمرد‪ ،‬ب فضل تمتع النظام بمدرة أكبر على التحرن من خالل سٌطرته على الموات والمواعد الجوٌة‪.‬‬ ‫ نماذج الصراع‬‫فً بداٌة األحداث واجه نظام المذافً صعوبات بالؽة وفمد السٌطرة على نطاق واسع من المناطك التً تمع على طول الحزام‬ ‫الساحلً الذي ٌتواجد بها أهم المناطك االلتصادٌة فً لٌبٌا‪ ،‬ولكن اعتبارا مع نهاٌة فبراٌر‪ ،‬تراجع الزخم ومال ثانٌة لصالح النظام‬ ‫فً أربع مناطك ربٌسٌة‪.‬‬ ‫بدأت عملٌات أمنٌة التً لام بها النظام أن تنشط فً طرابلس ومركز الزاوٌة الصناعً المجاور واستعاد مدٌنة صبراتة الساحلٌة‪،‬‬ ‫ولكن مدٌنة مصراتة الوالعة شرق طرابلس والتً تعد ثالث أكبر مدٌنة فً لٌبٌا ظلت تماوم هجمات النظام منذ بداٌة الثورة‪ ،‬فمد‬ ‫لاومت أربع هجمات كبٌرة من لبل لوات المذافً‪ ،‬وتمت إحاطة المدٌنة بالكامل (باستثناء جهة البحر)‪ ،‬وتصاعدت هجمات النظام‬ ‫ضد المعارضة فً تلن المدٌنة التً تبلػ مساحتها ‪ 150‬كٌلومتر‪.‬‬ ‫و كانت لو ات المذافً تموم بصورة تدرٌجٌة بتطهٌر "جبال نفوسة" إلى الجنوب الؽربً من طرابلس حٌث تتمدم من العاصمة‬ ‫والمنطمة المحٌطة بالحدود الجزابرٌة فً آن واحد‪ ،‬وتمت حٌنها محاصرة لوات المعارضة فً ممر طوله مابة كٌلومتر بٌن مدٌنتً‬ ‫نالوت وزنتان‪.‬‬ ‫لوات المعارضة فً شرق لٌبٌا تمكنت من السٌطرة على أراضً من مدٌنة مرسى البرٌمة شرلا‪ ،‬على الرؼم من أن لوات النظام لد‬ ‫استعادت السٌطرة فً بداٌة شهر مارس على مدٌنة السدرة المجاورة ومٌناء رأس النوؾ‪ ،‬الذي هو مولع أكبر مصفاة لتكرٌر النفط‬ ‫فً لٌبٌا إلى جانب أحتوابه على منشآت لتصدٌر النفط والطالة‪.‬‬ ‫فً هذا الولت كانت لوات المعارضة فً ؼرب لٌبٌا ؼٌر لادرة على الصمود إذا لم تحصل على الدعم ‪ ،‬حٌث لم تستطع الموات فً‬ ‫شرق لٌبٌا تمدٌم الدعم الالزم لها‪ ،‬فإذا ما زحفت لوات المعارضة فً الشرق إلى طرابلس فإنها ستواجه سلسلة من التحدٌات فً‬ ‫صحراء مفتوحة‪ ،‬وٌتوجب علٌها إلحاق الهزٌمة بموات المذافً فً سرت‪ ،‬ثم التمدم أكثر من اجل االرتباط بؤي لوات من المعارضة‬ ‫فً مصراتة‪ ،‬من ثم الزحؾ إلً طرابلس من اجل طرد أنصار المذافً‪ ،‬وفً هذا الولت كانت هذه مهمة شالة على نحو كبٌر لموة‬ ‫ناشبة تفتمر إلى الؽطاء الجوي أو المدفعٌة‪.‬‬ ‫وكان لتلن ا لتولعات الدافع الربٌسً لمٌام حلؾ شمال األطلسً إلى إنشاء منطمة حظر جوي وشن ؼارات استهدفت البنٌة التحتٌة‬ ‫العسكرٌة للمذافً لتحول دون تنفٌذ مزٌد من االعتداءات على سكان المدن اللٌبٌة المنتفضة‪ ،‬ومن هنا أصدر مجلس االمن فً مارس‬ ‫‪ 2011‬لرار بفرض حظر جوي على لٌبٌا‪ ،‬كما لام حلؾ شمال االطلسً بإعالن لٌادته لعملٌات جوٌة لحماٌة المدنٌٌن فً لٌبٌا‪.‬‬ ‫ومع زٌادة الؽضب الشعبً على المذافً‪ ،‬بدأ اعتراؾ العدٌد من دول العالم بالمجلس الوطنً االنتمالً فً لٌبٌا كحاكم شرعً للبالد‪،‬‬ ‫ونتٌجة لتطور األحداث ضد العمٌد المذافً ذهب لالختباء فً المجمع الخاص به فً طرابلس‪ ،‬وتهرٌب زوجته وثالثة من أطفاله‬ ‫الً الجزابر المجاورة للٌبٌا‪.500‬‬

‫‪ - http://goo.gl/DnS0Hd‬الحرب األهلٌة اللٌبٌة‪ ،‬معهد واشنطن‪ 2 ،‬مارس ‪،7000‬‬

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‫‪500‬‬

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‫ حادث المنصلٌة االمرٌكٌة فً بنغازي‬‫مع استمرار للفوضى التً انتشرت فً البالد مع الحرب األهلٌة‪ ،‬لمً السفٌر األمرٌكً فً لٌبٌا‪ ،‬كرٌستفور ستٌفنز مصرعه‪ ،‬بجانب‬ ‫ثالثة عناصر أمن أمرٌكٌٌن فً سبتمبر من عام ‪ ،2011‬فً هجوم صاروخً استهدؾ ممر المنصلٌة ببنؽازي‪ ،‬وندد به الربٌس‬ ‫األمرٌكً باران أوباما‪ ،‬واعتذرت عنه السلطات اللٌبٌة فً بنؽازي التابعة للمجلس االنتمالً‪ ،‬وٌؤتً الحادث على خلفٌة مهاجمة‬ ‫"جموع ؼاضبة" ممر المنصلٌة لالحتجاج على فٌلم مسًء لنبً المسلمٌن دمحم‪ ،‬فً إثر احتجاجات مماثلة استهدفت السفارة االمرٌكٌة‬ ‫فً عدة عواصم عربٌة‪.‬‬ ‫ولد تم اتهام أعضاء جماعة إسالمٌة متشددة تدعى "أنصار الشرٌعة" عن طرٌك الحكومة االمرٌكٌة‪ ،‬حٌث اشتبكوا مع لوات األمن‬ ‫التً حاولت إؼالق الطرق المإدٌة إلى المنصلٌة‪ ،‬واستهدفوا عمب ذلن المنصلٌة نفسها‪.501‬‬ ‫ استمرار الثورة‬‫وفً شهر سبتمبر عام ‪ 2011‬أعلنت ‪ 60‬دولة فً االتحاد األفرٌمً رسمٌا اعترافها بالمجلس الوطنً االنتمالً فً لٌبٌا كحاكم‬ ‫شرعً للبالد‪.‬‬ ‫وفً نهاٌة المطاؾ تمكن الثوار من إلماء المبض على العمٌد معمر المذافً‪ ،‬وتم لتله مباشرة فً ‪ 20‬أكتوبر من عام ‪ ،2011‬واعلن‬ ‫المجلس الوطنً االنتمالً رسمٌا تحرٌر لٌبٌا كامال بعد تحرٌر مدٌنة سرت ‪ ،‬وبعد شهر واحد نجح الثوار فً الماء المبض على سٌؾ‬ ‫االسالم المذافً نجل المذافً الهارب‪ ،‬لٌعد أخر ابنابه الذٌن ٌمعوا فً اٌدي الثوار‪.‬‬ ‫وفً نوفمبر من عام ‪ ،2013‬لامت جماعات مسلحة من مصراتة فً لٌبٌا بإطالق النار على متظاهرٌن خرجوا إلى شوارع‬ ‫طرابلس مطالبٌن بمؽادرة المٌلٌشٌات اإلللٌمٌة للعاصمة فٌما عرؾ بٌن االوساط اللٌبٌة "بالثورة الثانٌة"‪ ،‬ووفما لمنظمة "هٌومان‬ ‫راٌتس ووتش"‪ ،‬فإن المصادمات فً منطمة ؼرؼور أسفرت عن ولوع ‪ 43‬لتٌال و‪ 560‬جرٌحا‪.‬‬ ‫كما وانه منذ مطلع عام ‪ ,2014‬انتشرت فً لٌبٌا حاله من الفوضً و النزاع بٌن الملٌشٌات المسلحه و تفشً االرهاب و سٌطرت‬ ‫جماعات مسلحه علً موانا تصدٌر النفط‪ ،‬و علٌه اعلن اللواء خلٌفه حفتر تولٌه حملة للمضاء علً االرهاب و اعلن تجمٌد المإتمر‬ ‫الوطنً و الحكومه اللٌبٌه و سانده فً ذللن وحدات من الجٌش و الشرطه و عدد من المبابل‪.‬‬ ‫وبعد ‪ 3‬أعوام من حادث المنصلٌة األمرٌكٌة‪ ،‬لامت لوة خاصة بالجٌش االمرٌكً باعتمال زعٌم جماعة انصار الشرٌعة "احمد ابو‬ ‫ختالة" فً عملٌة لم ٌطلك فٌها الرصاص أو وجود أي اصابات من مدٌنة بنؽازي عام ‪ 2014‬وتم نمل ابوختالة للوالٌات المتحدة‬ ‫لٌمثل امام العدالة االمرٌكٌة‪ ،‬كما تم لبلها اعتمال "ابو انس اللٌبً" من طرابلس والذي اتهم من لبل فً الشروع فً تفجٌر سفارتً‬ ‫امرٌكا فً كٌنٌا وتنزانٌا عام ‪.5021998‬‬ ‫تاسعا‪ :‬نتائج الثورة‬ ‫ النظام السٌاسً‬‫بعد أحداث ثورة ‪ 17‬فبراٌر وسموط المذافً‪ ،‬تولى المجلس الوطنً االنتمالً حكم لٌبٌا لٌتمكن من لٌادة الثوار لهزٌمة جٌوش‬ ‫المذافً‪ ،‬ومع سموط المذافً عام ‪ 2011‬حكم المجلس لٌبٌا بالكامل وأجرى انتخابات من أجل تؤسٌس المإتمر الوطنً العام إلدارة‬ ‫شإون البالد لمدة عام ونصؾ ٌعٌن فٌها ربٌس الحكومة وٌموم بإعداد انتخابات لجنة صٌاؼة الدستور‪ ،‬وفً ‪ 2014‬تم انتخاب‬ ‫مجلس نواب لٌحل محل المإتمر الوطنً المنتهٌة والٌته‪ ،‬ولكن بعض التٌارات لم تعترؾ به وأعلنت حله من طرابلس وعودة‬ ‫المإتمر العام‪ ،‬ومنذ تلن اللحظة بدأ االنمسام اللٌبً‪ ،‬ولم ٌعد هنان نظام سٌاسً حمٌمً فً لٌبٌا بعد الثورة‬

‫‪501‬‬

‫ ممتل السفٌر األمرٌكً ببنؽازي‪ ،‬سً أن أن‪ 7 ،‬أكتوبر ‪،7000‬‬‫‪http://archive.arabic.cnn.com/2012/middle_east/9/12/usa.ambassador.libya.killed‬‬ ‫‪502‬‬

‫‪ - http://arabic.cnn.com/middleeast/2014/06/18/benghazi‬استجواب الٌبً بوختالة لن ٌكون سهال‪ ،‬سً أن أن‪ٌ 07 ،‬ونٌو ‪،7002‬‬‫‪khatallah-commandos-urgent-1‬‬

‫‪238‬‬

‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫ االنتخابات‬‫عمب سموط المذافً فً أٌدي الثوار اللٌبٌٌن ولتله‪ ،‬و‪h‬عالن المجلس الوطنً االنتمالً تحرٌر لٌبٌا بالكامل‪ ،‬شرع المجلس إلً‬ ‫االعداد النتخابات المإتمر الوطنً العام المنوط به تشكٌل الحكومة المنتخبه واالعداد النتخابات لجنة صٌاؼة الدستور‪ ،‬وبالفعل تم‬ ‫عمد االنتخابات فً ٌونٌو من عام ‪ ،2012‬وتمكن فٌها التٌار اللٌبرالً الممثل فً التحالؾ الوطنً بمٌادة محمود جبرٌل من الفوز‬ ‫بؤكثرٌة مماعد الموابم‪ ،‬حٌث بلػ عدد نواب التٌار ‪ 39‬نابب‪ ،‬بٌنما جاء فً المركز الثانً التٌار الٌمٌنً المتمثل فً حزب العدالة‬ ‫والبناء "االخوان المسلمٌن فً لٌبٌا" والذي تمكن من الفوز ب ‪ 17‬ممعدا فً المجلس‪ ،‬بٌنما بلػ عدد المستملٌن ‪ 120‬ناببا‪.‬‬ ‫وكان اللٌبٌون ٌتمنون من هذا المجلس المٌام بالعدٌد من األدوار الذي انتخب من أجلها مثل إعادة األمن للبالد والمضاء على‬ ‫المٌلٌشٌات المسلحة واعادة مستوٌات تصدٌر النفط كالسابك‪ ،‬ولكن استمرت الفوضى فً البالد‪ ،‬ومن صور عدم االستمرار عدم‬ ‫الثبات على ربٌس الوزراء المختار من لبل المإتمر‪ ،‬حٌث فً البداٌة تم اختٌار مصطفى أبو شالور والذي لم ٌستمر ألكثر من شهرا‬ ‫واحد‪ ،‬ثم خلفه على زٌ دان والذي أتى بعده عبد هللا الثنً‪ ،‬ولد سبك االنتخابات تولى العدٌد أٌضا منصب ربٌس الوزراء مثل عبد‬ ‫‪503‬‬ ‫الرحٌم الكٌب وسبمه على الترهونً وسبمه محمود جبرٌل‪ ،‬لٌكون لد تولى رباسة وزراء لٌبٌا ست أشخاص منذ اندالع الثورة ‪.‬‬ ‫عاشرا‪ :‬أحداث ما بعد الثورة‬ ‫ خلٌفة حفتر‬‫ولد خلٌفة حفتر عام ‪ 1943‬فً مدٌنة أجدابٌا اللٌبٌة‪ ،‬والتحك بالمدرسة العسكرٌة عام ‪ ،1964‬وتخرج منها عام ‪ ،1966‬وشارن‬ ‫المذافً فً انمالب عام ‪ 1969‬ضد الملن السنوسً‪.‬‬ ‫وسٌاسٌا كان حفتر ٌمٌل إلً الفكر العلمانً الناصري وهً السمة الؽالبة على معظم تنظٌم "الضباط الوحدوٌٌن االحرار" الذٌن لاموا‬ ‫بانمالب عام ‪ ،1969‬وكان حفتر ٌمود الموات البرٌة اللٌبٌة فً ظل حكم المذافً‪ ،‬وشارن فً حرب عام ‪ 1973‬مع الموات المصرٌة‬ ‫ضد اسرابٌل‪ ،‬ورلً عام ‪ 1980‬إلً رتبة عمٌد‪ ،‬ولاد الموات اللٌبٌة فً الحرب اللٌبٌة – التشادٌة فً الثمانٌنٌات وأسر فٌها مع مبات‬ ‫من جنوده عام ‪ ،1987‬وبعد ولوعه فً األسر ومع تخلً المذافً عنه‪ ،‬انتهج حفتر فكر مخالؾ للعمٌد اللٌبً‪ ،‬ولم ٌخرج من السجن‬ ‫اال عندما أخذ توجها مؽاٌر للمذافً‪ ،‬كما نال حٌنها ثمة االمرٌكٌٌن الذٌن كان فً خصومة مع المذافً أنذان‪.‬‬ ‫وبعد إطالق سراحه فً نفس العام ‪ 1987‬انضم إلً "الجبهة الوطنٌة النماذ لٌبٌا"‪ ،‬وتولى لٌادة "الجٌش الوطنً اللٌبً" الجناح‬ ‫العسكري للجبهة‪ ،‬ومع وصول إدرٌس إٌبً لرباسة تشاد تم تفكٌن الجٌش الوطنً اللٌبً‪ ،‬فمامت طابرة امرٌكٌة بحمل العدٌد من‬ ‫الضباط هنان ومنهم حفتر‪.‬‬ ‫وظل حفتر معارضا للمذافً من الوالٌات المتحدة االمرٌكٌة حتى لٌام ثورة ‪ 17‬فبراٌر عام ‪ ،2011‬حٌث عاد اللواء حفتر إلً‬ ‫بنؽازي للمشاركة فً الجهود السٌاسٌة والعسكرٌة السماط نظام المذافً‪ ،‬وتولى لمدة لٌادة جٌش التحرٌر الذي أسسه الثوار‪ ،‬وبعد‬ ‫انتمادات ألداء هذا الجٌش الذي تشكل فً أؼلبه من متطوعٌن شباب ‪ -‬تم إسناد لٌادته لوزٌر داخلٌة المذافً الذي انشك عنه عبد‬ ‫الفتاح ٌونس العبٌدي‪.‬‬ ‫وفً ‪ 14‬فبراٌر من عام ‪ 2014‬لام لوات اللواء خلٌفة حفتر بالسٌطرة على موالع عسكرٌة وحٌوٌة فً البالد‪ ،‬وأعلن فً بٌان‬ ‫تلفزٌونً تجمٌد عمل المإتمر الوطنً (البرلمان المإلت) والحكومة كذلن‪ ،‬وأعلن ما سماه "خارطة طرٌك" لمستمبل لٌبٌا السٌاسً‪،‬‬ ‫وفً صباح ٌوم ‪ 16‬ماٌو عام ‪ 2014‬شنت لوات تابعة لحفتر عملٌة عسكرٌة أطلك علٌها اسم "كرامة لٌبٌا" ضد مجموعات‬ ‫وصفتها بـ"اإلرهابٌة" فً بنؽازي‪ ،‬وانتملت العملٌة الحما إلى العاصمة طرابلس‪.‬‬ ‫وفً الممابل‪ ،‬رأى خصوم حفتر أنه ٌمود تمردا عسكرٌا ومحاولة انمالب وثورة مضادة إللؽاء مكتسبات ثورة ‪ 17‬فبراٌر‪ ،‬التً‬ ‫أطاحت بحكم العمٌد معمر المذافً‪ ،‬وكان من نتابجها إجراء أول انتخابات تشرٌعٌة فً تارٌخ لٌبٌا‪.‬‬

‫‪ - http://goo.gl/zgekwR‬التحالؾ ٌتصدر نتابج انتخابات لٌبٌا‪ ،‬الجزٌرة‪.‬نت‪ٌ 02 ،‬ولٌو ‪،7007‬‬

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‫‪503‬‬

‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫وفً الرابع من ٌونٌو من عام ‪ 2014‬نجا حفتر من محاولة اؼتٌال استهدفته‪ ،‬واختفى عن األنظار فٌما ظلت لواته تماتل فً بعض‬ ‫المناطك اللٌبٌة‪ ،‬وحظٌت بدعم من بعض الموى اإلللٌمٌة‪ ،‬كما لمٌت عملٌته تؤٌٌدا من مجموعة فً البرلمان اللٌبً (المنتخب فً‬ ‫‪ )2014‬اجتمعت بطبرق فً أؼسطس من عام ‪.5042014‬‬ ‫ المٌلٌشٌات المسلحة‬‫تواصل لٌبٌا عمب نجاح ثورة ‪ 17‬من فبراٌر مواجهة االزمة السٌاسٌة التً طال أمدها‪ ،‬وكذلن التطورات على االرض الذي تهٌمن‬ ‫علٌه العدٌد من المٌلٌشٌات المسلحة فً جمٌع أرجاء البالد‪ ،‬حٌث ٌوجد فً الؽرب الجماعات الموالٌة لالسالمٌٌن فً العاصمة‬ ‫طرابلس الذٌن ٌدعمون المإتمر الوطنً المنحل "البرلمان المإلت"‪ ،‬بٌنما فً الشرق ٌوجد توجد الجماعات التً تدعم السلطة‬ ‫الشرعٌة "البرلمان المنتخب عام ‪ "2014‬والتً تتخذ من مدٌنة بنؽازي نمطة ارتكاز لها والتً لاتلت فٌها المٌلٌشٌات االسالمٌة‪،‬‬ ‫والذي احتدم فً عام ‪.2014‬‬ ‫ الجماعات الداعلمة لعملٌة فجر لٌبٌا‬‫وٌعد من أهم المٌلٌشٌات المتنازعة على الحكم فً لٌبٌا من الجماعات االسالمٌة والجماعات الداعمة للجٌش منذ بداٌة االحداث وحتى‬ ‫االن ‪:‬‬ ‫ فجر لٌبٌا‬‫هً مجموعة من المٌلٌشٌات الموالٌة لالسالمٌٌن‪ ،‬وهو تحالؾ مٌلٌشٌات مإٌد "للمإتمر الوطنً العام اللٌبً" المنحل‪ ،‬والذى عاد‬ ‫لالنعماد مرة أخرى عام ‪ 2014‬فً تحد مباشر للبرلمان المنتخب‪ ،‬وٌعد الداعم الربٌسً لتلن المٌلٌشٌات والتً تعد جناحه العسكري‬ ‫خاصة منذ ان اكتسبت فجر لٌبٌا الطابرات الحربٌة‪ ،‬وٌعود اسم تلن المٌلٌشٌات فً األصل إلً عملٌة فجر لٌبٌا التً كانت مهمتها‬ ‫االستٌالء على طرابلس‪ ،‬ثم أصبح االسم الذي ٌشٌر لتلن المجموعة‪ ،‬وفً دٌسمبر من عام ‪ 2014‬وبناءا على طلب من المإتمر‬ ‫الوطنً لامت لوات فجر لٌبٌا بالسٌطرة على المنشؤت النفطٌة فً وسط البلد الؽنٌة بالموارد‪ ،‬وٌعد معظم أفراد تلن المٌلٌشٌات‬ ‫لادمٌن من مدٌنة مصراتة اللٌبٌة‪.‬‬ ‫ درع لٌبٌا‬‫هً مجموعة مسلحة تتؤلؾ من عدة مٌلٌشٌات تحمل نفس االسم وتعمل فً عدة أجزاء مختلفة داخل لٌبٌا‪ ،‬وتعد لوات درع لٌبٌا‬ ‫المركزٌة مدعومة أٌضا من لبل "المإتمر الوطنً العام" المنحل فً طرابلس‪ ،‬وتعد جزءا من وزارة الدفاع اللٌبٌة‪ ،‬وٌوجد مجموعة‬ ‫اخرى تابعة لدرع لٌبٌا فً مدٌنة بنؽازي تعرؾ باسم "اللواء االول من لوات درع لٌبٌا" وهً تعمل تحت لٌادة لابد اسالمً المٌول‬ ‫وهو المابد البارز وسام بن حمٌد الذي لاتل بجانب لابد تنظٌم "انصار الشرٌعة االسالمٌة" المرتبطة بتنظٌم الماعدة دمحم الزهاوي‪.‬‬ ‫ أنصار الشرٌعة‬‫هً الجماعة التً تعد األلرب لتنظٌم الماعدة فً المؽرب العربً‪ ،‬وتتمركز تلن الجماعة فً شرق لٌبٌا فً مدٌنة بنؽازي‪ ،‬ولد لاتلت‬ ‫ضد المذافً أثناء الثورة‪ ،‬وبعد انتصار الثورة‪ ،‬ظلت تماتل لوات الجٌش الرسمٌة المعترؾ بها دولٌا عمب الثورة‪ ،‬وتعتبر مٌلٌشٌا‬ ‫"أنصار الشرٌعة" هً المتهم الربٌسً فً أحداث المنصلٌة االمرٌكٌة فً بنؽازي عام ‪ ،2011‬والتً أدت لممتل السفٌر األمرٌكً‬ ‫كرٌستوفر ستٌفنز و‪ 3‬من العاملٌن بالمنصلٌة‪.‬‬ ‫ مجلس شورى ثوار بنغازي‬‫مجلس شورى ثوار بنؽازي هو تحالؾ من المٌلٌشٌات االسالمٌة المكونة من مجلس شورى ثوار بنؽازي وجماعة أنصار الشرٌعة‪،‬‬ ‫وكذلن كتٌبة ‪ 17‬فبراٌر وكتٌبة راؾ هللا السحاتً‪ ،‬وكما هو الحال مع انصار الشرٌعة فإن مجلس شورى بنؽازي ٌتخذ من لوات‬ ‫الجٌش اللٌبً خصما له فً الشرق‪ ،‬حٌث تحافظ تلن المجموعة على بعض المناطك فً المدن الشرلٌة التً ٌسعى الجٌش لالستٌالء‬ ‫علٌها‪.‬‬ ‫ مجلس شورى مجاهدي درنة‬‫‪ - http://goo.gl/M5Vkw6‬خلٌفة حفتر‪ ،‬الجزٌرة‪.‬نت‪ 02 ،‬أكتوبر ‪،7002‬‬

‫‪240‬‬

‫‪504‬‬

‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫مجلس شورى مجاهدي درنة هو احدى الجماعات التً لها صلة بتنظٌم الماعدة فً المؽرب العربً‪ ،‬وهو تحالؾ لبعض المٌلٌشٌات‬ ‫اإلسالمٌة التً تشكلت فً دٌسمبر من عام ‪ ،2014‬وزاد التركٌز على هذه المجموعة فً ماٌو من عام ‪ ،2015‬وذلن عمب‬ ‫مشاركتها فً اشتباكات عنٌفة مع بعض مسلحٌن تنظٌم "داعش" فً درنة‪ ،‬وتصاعدت االشتباكات بٌن تلن المٌلٌشٌا وداعش عمب‬ ‫لتل داعش ألبرز شخصٌتٌن مرتبطتٌن بمجلس شورى مجاهدي درنة‪ ،‬وورد إن مماتلً درنة لد تمكنوا بالفعل من طرد مسلحٌن‬ ‫داعش من بعض أجزاء المدٌنة‪ ،‬ولكن ال ٌزال ٌتبمى مجموعة منهم داخل درنة‪.‬‬ ‫الجماعات الداعمة لعملٌة الكرامة‬‫تعمل بشكل كبٌر تلن الجماعات تحت لٌادة اللواء خلٌفة حفتر فٌما عرؾ "بعملٌة الكرامة" وهً التً انطلمت منذ ماٌو ‪ 2014‬ضد‬ ‫الجماعات االسالمٌة المسلحة‪ ،‬وعلى الرؼم من تولى حفتر عن طرٌك البرلمان المنتخب لٌادة الجٌش اللٌبً‪ ،‬اال ان الجماعة‬ ‫المعاونة له لم تكتسب الصفة العسكرٌة الرسمٌة‪ ،‬خاصة وإن خصومه مازالو ٌطلمون علٌها "جماعات حفتر"‪.‬‬ ‫الموات الحكومٌة‬‫حٌث تتشكل لوات حفتر الرسمٌة من وحدات الموات المسلحة‪ ،‬باإلضافة إلً الموات الخاصة ولوات الصاعمة‪ ،‬والتً أعلنت دعمها‬ ‫لعملٌة الكرامة التً أعلنها حفتر‪.‬‬ ‫مٌلٌشٌات الصواعك والمعماع‬‫هً المٌلٌشٌات المعادٌة لالسالمٌٌن والتً تعمل خصوصا فً ؼرب لٌبٌا‪ ،‬وتعد مٌلٌشٌات لعماع الزنتان هً المٌلٌشٌات التً اشتبكت‬ ‫فً مواجهات عدٌدة ضد لوات فجر لٌبٌا‪ ،‬كما أنها الجماعة المعتملة لسٌؾ االسالم المذافً‪ ،‬وهو الوحٌد من رموز النظام السابك‬ ‫الذي ال ٌمع فً ٌدي االسالمٌٌن‪ ،‬باالضافة اال أن لوات الصواعك والمعماع هً اول من لامت بمهاجمة المإتمر الوطنً المدعوم من‬ ‫االسالمٌٌن فً طرابلس عام ‪ 2014‬بعد إعالن عملٌة الكرامة‪.‬‬ ‫داعش‬‫مع التطورات المستمرة فً لٌبٌا والفوضى الكبٌرة على االراض‪ ،‬ظهر عام ‪ 2015‬تنظٌم اطالق على نفسه تنظٌم الدولة االسالمٌة‬ ‫فً ل ٌبٌا "داعش" كفرع لتنظٌم الدولة االسالمٌة فً العراق والشام‪ ،‬وهً جماعة جهادٌة متطرفة ظهرت فً شرق مدٌنة درنة‬ ‫اللٌبٌة‪ ،‬والتً كانت مركزا جهادٌا من فترة طوٌلة‪ ،‬حٌث كان ٌوجد من لبل العدٌد من االفراد الذٌن ٌدٌنون بالوالء لداعش االم فً‬ ‫سورٌا والعراق‪.‬‬ ‫ولد لام التنظٌ م بالسٌطرة على بعض المبانً المحلٌة فً درنة‪ ،‬ولكنهم عانوا من بعض الخسابر بعد اشتباكهم مع مجلس شورى‬ ‫مجاهدي درنة فً ٌونٌو من عام ‪.2015‬‬ ‫كما لام التنظٌم بعدة هجمات أرهابٌة استهدفت السفارات والفنادق فً مدٌنتً طرابلس وبنؽازي فً شهر ٌناٌر وفبراٌر‪ ،‬ولد عمل‬ ‫التنظٌم على خطؾ العدٌد من المواطنٌن االجانب فً لٌبٌا ومنهم ‪ 21‬من االلباط المصرٌٌن الذٌن خطفوا وذبحوا فً مدٌنة سرت‬ ‫الساحلٌة‪.‬‬ ‫ولد كانت تلن الحادثة عمب استٌالبهم بشكل كامل على مدٌنة سرت الساحلٌة معمل لبٌلة العمٌد الراحل معمر المذافً‪ ،‬وسٌطروا على‬ ‫محطة االذاعة الرسمٌة هنان‪.505‬‬ ‫بداٌة اإلضطرابات‬‫مع بداٌة عام ‪ 2014‬وتحدٌدا فً شهر فبراٌر‪ ،‬ومع لرب انتهاء فترة والٌة المإتمر الوطنً العام المنتخب منذ عامٌن‪ ،‬وزٌادة‬ ‫الحدٌث عن إمكانٌة التمدٌد له على الرؼم من فشله فً تحمٌك العدٌد من أهدافه‪ ،‬انطلك حران سمً ب"حران ال للتمدٌد" للمإتمر‬ ‫ا لوطنً والدعوة لحل المٌلٌشٌات المسلحة فً طرابلس وبنؽازي‪ ،‬ومع تطور المظاهرات حدث اشتبان بٌن المتظاهرٌن والمٌلٌشٌات‬ ‫فً بنؽازي‪ ،‬خلفت أكثر من ‪ 30‬لتٌل ومبات الجرحى‪.‬‬ ‫‪ - http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-19744533‬مٌلٌشٌات لٌبٌا الربٌسٌة‪ ،‬بً بً سً‪ٌ 00 ،‬ناٌر ‪،7002‬‬

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‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫ومن هنا بدأت سلسلة جدٌدة من االضطرابات فً لٌبٌا‪ ،‬حٌث أعلن اللواء خلٌفة حفتر إن المإتمر الوطنً العام المنتهٌة والٌته ؼٌر‬ ‫شرعٌة‪ ،‬وأعلن بداٌة عملٌة الكرامة لتطهٌر لٌبٌا مما أطلك علٌهم المتشددٌن اإلسالمٌٌن‪ ،‬ولكن المإتمر الوطنً استمر فً مواصلة‬ ‫اعماله‪ ،‬بل وبدأ نوابه فً تشكٌل ما ٌعرؾ بموات فجر لٌبٌا‪ ،‬وتمكنت تلن الموات من التحام مطار طرابلس فً معركة لوٌة سمط بها‬ ‫عشرات المتلى‪ ،‬ودمرت فٌها الكثٌر من طابرات المطار‪.506‬‬ ‫ومن جانب أخر‪ ,‬نجح اللٌبٌون فً انتخاب برلمان جدٌد بدال من المنتهً والٌته لبل بدأ العملٌات العسكرٌة‪ ،‬ولكن البرلمان الجدٌد‬ ‫على الرؼم من أنه لد حصل على اعتراؾ دولً وإللٌمً‪ ،‬إال أنه فشل فً االنعماد بالعاصمة طرابلس وكذلن بنؽازي بسبب‬ ‫الظروؾ األمنٌة‪ ،‬فتم عمده بمدٌنة طبرق شرق لٌبٌا‪ ،‬واعترؾ ذلن البرلمان بالموات التً ٌمودها خلٌفة حفتر‪.‬‬ ‫ومن الناحٌة الدولٌة‪ ،‬تباٌنت االتهامات بدعم دول بعٌنها لتٌار من تٌارات لٌبٌا المتنازعة‪ ،‬فالبعض ٌرى الوالٌات المتحدة وبرٌطانٌا‬ ‫ٌدعما ن البرلمان والحكومة فً طرابلس بالؽرب‪ ،‬بٌنما ٌجدون فرنسا تدعم برلمان طبرق‪ ،‬وعربٌا توجه اتهامات لدول مثل لطر‬ ‫وتركٌا بدعم برلمان طرابلس‪ ،‬بٌنما مصر والجزابر واإلمارات ٌواجهون اتهامات بدعم برلمان طبرق‪.‬‬ ‫االنمسام‬‫إن لٌبٌا تشهد اعمال عنؾ سٌاسً وشعبً ؼٌر مسبوق‪ ،‬فمد امتد النزاع المسلح الذي كان محصورا فً بنؽازي الى العاصمة‬ ‫طرابلس‪ ،‬وذلن بعد ان شن اللواء خلٌفة حفتر حملة عسكرٌة "عملٌة الكرامة" ضدّ خلٌة "أنصار الشرٌعة" المدرجة على البحة‬ ‫الوالٌات المتحدة االمرٌكٌة لإلرهاب‪ ،‬وكذلن ضد مٌلٌشٌات اسالمٌة مسلحة أخرى فً بنؽازي‪ .‬ونتٌجة الحتدام المتال فً العاصمة‬ ‫اللٌبٌة أخلٌت السفارة األمرٌكٌة بسرعة فً ‪ٌ 26‬ولٌو‪ ،‬كما حثت الدول األخرى مواطنٌها على مؽادرة البالد‪.‬‬ ‫ولد شهدت طرابلس ‪ 6‬أسابٌع متتالٌة من العنؾ منذ ‪ٌ 13‬ولٌو ‪ ،2014‬عندما أطلك تحالؾ من الجماعات المسلحة من مدٌنة‬ ‫مصراته بصف ة أساسٌة وكذلن من مدن أخرى منها الزاوٌة وؼرٌان والجماعات المسلحة فً طرابلس‪" ،‬عملٌة الفجر" ضد كتابب‬ ‫المعماع والصواعك التابعتٌن بشكل اساسً للزنتان والمتحالفتٌن مع مماتلٌن من منطمة رشفانة ؼرب طرابلس‪ ،‬واشتد المتال بصفة‬ ‫خاصة حول مطار طرابلس الدولً ولكنه أثر على مساحات كبٌرة أخرى من طرابلس‪ ،‬وفً ‪ 42‬أؼسطس‪ ،‬استولى مماتلون عملٌة‬ ‫الفجر على المطار ومناطك أخرى من طرابلس من الجماعات المسلحة التابعة للزنتان التً انسحبت من المدٌنة‪.‬‬ ‫ولد اشتعل المتال فً طرابلس فً ٌوم ‪ٌ 12‬ولٌو بٌن مٌلٌشٌات تتبع تٌار اإلسالم السٌاسً من معالل اإلخوان المسلمٌن فً مدٌنة‬ ‫مصراتة وحلفابها فً شمال ؼربً البالد وبٌن جماعات تابعة ظاهرٌا الى الجٌش اللٌبً "لواء المعماع وكتٌبة الصواعك" المحسوبة‬ ‫على التٌار الوطنً‪ ،‬وهً ذات تدرٌب وتجهٌز عالً‪ ،‬ومدعومة بمماتلٌن من لبٌلة الزنتان‪ .‬وتدعم هذه األخٌرة‪ ،‬التحالؾ السٌاسً‬ ‫الذي ٌمٌل أكثر إلى المدنٌة أال وهو "تحالؾ الموى الوطنٌة"‪ ،‬فمد لام تحالؾ المٌلٌشٌات المصراتٌة‪-‬اإلسالمٌة بالهجوم على مطار‬ ‫طرابلس الدولً‪ ،‬الذي كان تحت سٌطرة وحماٌة لوات تابعة لمبٌلة الزنتان منذ انتهاء الثورة‪ .‬هذه المعركة أدت إلى لصؾ و تدمٌر‬ ‫‪ 90‬بالمبة من الط ابرات الرابضة فً المطار والتً تمدر لٌمتها االجمالٌة بملٌار و نصؾ ملٌار دوالر أمرٌكً‪ ،‬وهً باإلضافة الى‬ ‫ضحاٌا المتال‪ ،‬خسارة فادحة بكل المماٌٌس‪ ،‬األمر الذي ٌشكل منعطفا خطٌرا لألحداث‪ ،‬وازدٌاد إمكانٌة دخول لٌبٌا مرة أخرى حربا‬ ‫أهلٌّة شبٌهة بالحرب المبلٌة عام ‪ ،1936‬وٌعود هذا االنمسام بٌن االطراؾ السٌاسٌة فً لٌبٌا إلً عدة أسباب وهً كالتالً ‪:‬‬ ‫ تارٌخ مضطرب ٌعٌد نفسه‬‫تارٌخٌا‪ ،‬ساهمت الحساسٌات المبلٌة فً اشعال الحرب األهلٌة فً الثالثٌنٌات بٌن لبابل كبرى مثل الصراع بٌن لبابل ورفلة‬ ‫ومصراتة‪ ،‬وبٌن لبابل المشاشٌة والزنتان‪ ،‬وؼٌرها من الحروب المبلٌة‪ ،‬على عكس الؽرب اللٌبً الذي تمتع باالستمرار النسبً‬ ‫بسبب تجانس المبابل الشرق من الناحٌة العرلٌة‪ ،‬وكذلن تمٌزت بكونها متحدة سٌاسٌا حٌث انعكس ذلن فً مواجهتها لموات‬ ‫االستعمار االٌطالً كجبه ٍة واحدة فً الماضً‪ ،‬ومإخرا‪ ،‬فً تحالفها االبتالفً مع لوات حفتر ضدّ اإلسالمٌٌن والمتطرفٌن‪.‬‬

‫‪ - http://goo.gl/zhUPfu‬لٌبٌا الحرب بٌن رفاق األمس‪ٌ 7 ،‬ناٌر ‪،7002‬‬

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‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫كما ٌش ّكل المشهد الدولً والوالع الجٌوسٌاسً فً المنطمة عامال اخر ٌإثر فً األزمة اللٌبٌة‪ ،‬حٌث ّ‬ ‫أن اإلمارات العربٌة المتحدة‬ ‫ومصر تدعما التٌار الوطنً‪ ،‬بٌنما تدعم تركٌا ولطر والسودان االسالمٌٌن‪ ،‬أي ّ‬ ‫أن الحرب للسٌطرة على العاصمة طرابلس تمثّل‬ ‫أٌضا حربا بالوكالة لتٌّارا ٍ‬ ‫ت إللٌمٌة على نطاق أوسع‪ ،‬وتشكل امتداد للصراع الدابر بٌن اإلسالم السٌاسً والمشروع الوطنً فً‬ ‫دول الربٌع العربً‪.‬‬ ‫ المشاكل السٌاسٌة التً تدفع للمتال‬‫ساهمت اتجاهات سٌاسٌة عدة فً تؤجٌج االشتباكات األخٌرة ‪ ..‬أوال‪ ،‬حالة الشلل السٌاسً فً "المإتمر الوطنً العام" المنتهً‬ ‫صالحٌته‪ ،‬وذلن نتٌجة االستمطاب األٌدٌولوجً الحاد‪ ،‬حٌث إن الدراسات أظهرت أن المرشحٌن اإلسالمٌٌن والسلفٌٌن المستملٌن‬ ‫تمتعوا بهامش ولو بسٌط ٌفوق األصوات الممنوحة للمرشحٌن المستملٌن التابعٌن للتٌار الوطنً‪ ،‬حتى أن بعض التمدٌرات أشارت‬ ‫إلى أن ‪ 80‬بالمبة من المرشحٌن المستملٌن كانوا ٌمٌلون الى اإلسالم السٌاسً‪ ،‬ولد استطاع اإلسالمٌون استمالة بعض المستملٌن‬ ‫المعروؾ عنهم عدم انسجامهم مع اإلسالم السٌاسً (كمجموعة األمازٌػ) ممابل بعض الوعود‪ ،‬كما استؽل اإلسالمٌون النزاعات‬ ‫المبلٌة لخلك انمسامات فً التٌار الوطنً المعارض لهم‪ ،‬وفً نهاٌة األمر‪ ،‬لم ٌجد "تحالؾ الموى الوطنٌة" عددا كافٌا من المرشحٌن‬ ‫المستملٌن ٌتحالؾ معه‪.‬‬ ‫لام المرشحون المستملون المٌالون الى اإلسالم السٌاسً‪ ،‬وأٌضا السلفٌون بتشكٌل التكتل السٌاسً الثالث من حٌث الحجم أال وهو‬ ‫"كتلة الوفاء لدم الشهداء"‪ ،‬ولاد هذه الكتلة المتشددة عبد الوهاب لاٌد وهو عضو سابك فً "الجماعة اللٌبٌة اإلسالمٌة المماتلة"‪ ،‬أما‬ ‫أخوه أبو ٌحٌى اللٌبً فكان مسإوال ثانٌا فً تنظٌم "الماعدة" ولُتل اثر هجوم شنته طابرة من دون طٌار فً باكستان عام ‪.2012‬‬ ‫ولد دفعت هذه المعطٌات وؼٌرها اللواء حفتر إلى اتهام لاٌد بدعم االرهاب‪.‬‬ ‫باإلضافة إلى ذلن‪ ،‬ولدت األزمة السٌاسٌة آثار كارثٌة فً لٌبٌا حٌث تعطل بناء المإسسات وؼابت المواعد واإلجراءات الدٌممراطٌة‪،‬‬ ‫كما استخدمت الكتلة اإلسالمٌة أسالٌب أخرى لسن تشرٌعا ٍ‬ ‫ت تساعد على تطبٌك برنامجها‪ ،‬وأشهرها لانون العزل السٌاسً فً العام‬ ‫‪ ، 2013‬دافعا منظمة "هٌومن راٌتس وتش" إلى حث اللٌبٌٌن على رفضه‪ ،‬وفً الوالع‪ ،‬أدى سن المانون بالعدٌد من الفاعلٌن فً‬ ‫الحكومة إلى االستمالة كما أضعؾ التٌار الوطنً إلى حد كبٌر‪ ،‬كما إن هذا المانون أدى الى ؼٌاب لوة موازنة فعالة من طرؾ‬ ‫"تحالؾ الموى الوطنٌة" لبرنامج اإلسالمٌٌن فً "المإتمر الوطنً العام" مما تسبب فً إعالة إعادة بناء جهاز األمن الوطنً الناشا‬ ‫فً لٌبٌا‪.‬‬ ‫تواصلت التعٌٌنات التً تظهر اإلنحٌازات السٌاسٌة‪ ،‬حٌث تم تكلٌؾ عضو كتلة "الوفاء" صالح بادي ربٌسا لالستخبارات العسكرٌة‬ ‫بعد ترلٌته الى رتبة عمٌد بمرار من ربٌس المإتمر الوطنً نوري بوسهمٌن‪ .‬وعرؾ صالح بادي بسوء سلوكه داخل "المإتمر‬ ‫الوطنً العام" فمد لام بضرب احدى الناببات فً المإتمر مرة‪ ،‬ولد شارن أتباعه فً مجزرة ؼرؼور فً طرابلس فً نوفمبر‬ ‫‪ ،2013‬ولاد هجوم على مطار طرابلس‪.‬‬ ‫ المشاكل األمنٌة التً تدفع للمتال‬‫الدولة اللٌبٌة ال تزال تعانً حتى الٌوم ولد تبرز تلن األحداث المتسارعة فً الدولة االفرٌمٌة المنافسات السٌاسٌة التً ال تزال تمسم‬ ‫البالد‪ .‬على سبٌل المثال‪ ،‬أُنٌطت بـ "ؼرفة عملٌات ثوار لٌبٌا" مهمة تؤمٌن العاصمة من لبل ربٌس "المإتمر الوطنً العام"‪ ،‬نوري‬ ‫أبو سهمٌن‪ ،‬الذي تنافس مع زٌدان على السلطتٌن التنفٌذٌة والعسكرٌة‪.‬‬ ‫ولد صرح من لبل على زٌدان ربٌس وزراء لٌبٌا السابك أن ‪ 19,000‬من رجال الشرطة "وبضعة آالؾ" من الجنود فً الجٌش‬ ‫الوطنً تلموا تدرٌبات لكنهم ٌفتمرون إلى الفاعلٌة‪ ،‬وألر وزٌر الدفاع عبد هللا الثنً بؤن ما ٌزٌد عن ‪ 170,000‬فردا كانوا ٌتلمون‬ ‫أجورا رؼم تزاٌد عدد من ٌتخلفون عن الخدمة‪ .‬كما ألر بؤن العدٌد من الوحدات العسكرٌة ؼٌر موجودة سوى على الورق‪ ،‬وفً‬

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‫الٌوم ذاته‪ ،‬أخبر ربٌس األركان الجنرال سالم العبٌدي صحٌفة "الشرق األوسط" العربٌة الشاملة أنه "تم إنفاق مبلػ هابل من األموال‬ ‫على هذه الوحدات الوهمٌة"‪.‬‬ ‫وفً ؼضون ذلن‪ ،‬سعت الدولة إلى تلبٌة احتٌاجاتها األمنٌة من خالل االعتماد على نحو ‪ 225,000‬من الثوار المسجلٌن لدى العدٌد‬ ‫من المٌلٌشٌات‪ .‬ولد ذكر تمرٌر صدر مإخرا عن "مصلحة اإلحصاء والتعداد" أن تعداد سكان لٌبٌا وصل إلى ‪ 5,172,231‬فً‬ ‫عام ‪ ،2012‬مما ٌعنً أن ما ٌزٌد عن ‪ 4‬بالمابة من تعداد سكان البالد ٌعملون ضمن المٌلٌشٌات‪ .‬كما تم تكلٌؾ "هٌبة شإون‬ ‫المحاربٌن للتؤهٌل والتنمٌة" بمهمة نزع سالح هإالء المماتلٌن وتسرٌحهم وإعادة دمجهم فً المجتمع؛ ولد تم تسجٌل ‪213,702‬‬ ‫حتى اآلن‪ ،‬رؼم أن عملٌة التسرٌح الفعلٌة تمضً ببطء أكثر من ذلن بكثٌر‪.‬‬ ‫ولد ٌذكرنا الخلل االمنً ببعض االحداث التً ولعت فً بنؽازي‪ ،‬والتً لتل فٌها عشرات المتظاهرٌن أثناء المطالبة بحل اللواء‬ ‫األول من لوات "درع لٌبٌا"‪ .‬وفً بداٌة نوفمبر‪ ،‬اندلعت مصادمات شملت ثوارا ؼاضبٌن من مصراتة فً مناطك فشلوم وسوق‬ ‫الجمعة وزاوٌة الدهمانً فً العاصمة‪ ،‬األمر الذي أدى إلى تصعٌد التوترات بشكل كبٌر ودفع السكان المحلٌٌن إلى وصؾ رجال‬ ‫المٌلٌشٌات بـ "المتمردٌن" و"المجرمٌن"‪ .‬واستجابة لذلن‪ ،‬أٌد "المجلس المحلً لمدٌنة طرابلس" دعوات لتنظٌم احتجاجات‬ ‫جماهٌرٌة‪ ،‬مثلما فعلت منظمات المجتمع المدنً المختلفة ولادة الثوار المحلٌون ومفتً لٌبٌا األكبر الشٌخ صادق الؽرٌانً‪ ،‬ثم وافمت‬ ‫وزارة الداخلٌة على لٌام مظاهرة فً ‪ 15‬من نوفمبر‪ ،‬لكن عندما دخل المتظاهرون منطمة ؼرؼور فً ذلن الٌوم‪ ،‬استهدفتهم‬ ‫األسلحة اآللٌة والمدافع المضادة للطابرات‪ .‬ولد سٌطر "درع لٌبٌا‪ -‬مصراتة" فً النهاٌة على الوضع‪ ،‬بإبعاده المتظاهرٌن لبل نمل‬ ‫المنطمة إلى اللواء ‪ 161‬فً الجٌش الوطنً‪.‬‬ ‫ولد استمر الوضع فً التدهور عندما أولفت مٌلٌشٌا فً تاجوراء‪ ،‬على بعد عشرٌن كٌلومتر شرق ؼرؼور على الطرٌك المإدي إلى‬ ‫مصراتة‪ ،‬موكبا لمصراتة مكونا من ثالثٌن مركبة فً طرٌمه إلى طرابلس‪ ،‬وتشابن مع مٌلٌشٌا تاجوراء‪ ،‬وانطلك بالمركبات‬ ‫واألسلحة والذخٌرة‪ .‬ولد خلّؾ المتال العدٌد من المماتلٌن بٌن لتلى وجرحى‪ ،‬ونتٌجة للفوضى لم تتولؾ عملٌات االختطاؾ فً لٌبٌا‬ ‫على المواطنٌن العادٌٌن فحسب‪ ،‬بل ت ّم اختطاؾ عدة مسإولٌن رسمٌٌن ومن بٌنهم‪:‬‬ ‫ خطؾ ربٌس الوزراء السابك زٌدان فً أكتوبر ‪ 2013‬ثم اطالق سراحه‪.‬‬‫ خطؾ خمسة دبلوماسٌٌن مصرٌٌن وموظؾ فً السفارة المصرٌة فً ٌناٌر‪ ،2014‬ولد اضطرت الماهرة فً الممابل إلى إطالق‬‫سراح لابد "ؼرفة عملٌات ثوار لٌبٌا" التابعة لإلسالمٌٌن والتً تب ّنت عملٌة اختطاؾ زٌدان‪.‬‬ ‫ خطؾ دبلوماسٌٌن تونسٌٌن اثنٌن فً شهري مارس وأبرٌل ‪ 2014‬اختطفتهم مجموعة إسالمٌة‪.‬‬‫ خطؾ سفٌر األردن فً شهر أبرٌل ‪ ،2014‬ولد اضطرت عمان فً الممابل على إطالق سراح عمٌل فً تنظٌم "الماعدة"‪.‬‬‫ انمطاعات امدادات النفط‬‫ومن المشكالت الكبرى فً لٌبٌا هو ما تواجهه الحكومة المركزٌة من عجز فً اإلٌرادات‪ .‬فبعد أن أدى زٌدان الٌمٌن الدستورٌة عاد‬ ‫إنتاج النفط اللٌبً بشكل سرٌع فً عام ‪ ،2012‬وظل فً ذلن العام وفً األشهر األولى من عام ‪ 2013‬فً مستوٌات ما لبل‬ ‫الحرب‪ .‬ومع ذلن رأت العدٌد من الدوابر مإخرا أن لطاع النفط والؽاز ٌمثل نمطة ضعؾ للحكومة اللٌبٌة‪ .‬فمن خالل استهداؾ‬ ‫مناطك إنتاج وتصدٌر النفط‪ ،‬استطاعت هذه الجماعات ممارسة الضؽوط على الحكومة التً لم تكن على لدر المسإولٌة مع حجم‬ ‫هذه الجماعات أو فً التعاطً مع فداحة ما لدمته من شكاوى‪ .‬وأصبحت االحتجاجات واإلجراءات العمالٌة واالعتصامات ولطع‬ ‫الطرق أكثر شٌوعا خالل الربٌع األخٌر وأوابل الصٌؾ‪.‬‬

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‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫وفً الفترة األخٌرة وصل التؤثٌر المتراكم لهذه األحداث إلى مستوى األزمة فً الولت الذي انخفضت فٌه صادرات النفط من ‪1,3‬‬ ‫ملٌون برمٌل ٌومٌا إلى ألل من ‪ 200,000‬برمٌل‪ .‬ووفما لـ "مإسسة النفط الوطنٌة" فً لٌبٌا‪ ،‬فإن هذه االنمطاعات لد كلفت البالد‬ ‫خسارة تمدر بخمس ملٌارات دوالر من اإلٌرادات كما أن إنتاج النفط عانى منذ ذلن الحٌن من بعض المعولات المستمرة‪.‬‬ ‫وتتنوع أسباب هذه االنمطاعات من مخاوؾ مادٌة إلى مطالب سٌاسٌة‪ ،‬وفً ضوء تباٌن األسباب‪ ،‬تحاول الحكومة الوصول لصٌاؼة‬ ‫استجابة سٌاسٌة متسمة من شؤنها العمل على استعادة لطاع إنتاج النفط والؽاز لعافٌته‪ .‬فلو أذعنت طرابلس واستجابت إلى أي‬ ‫مجموعة واحدة من المطالب‪ ،‬فربما لد تكون مضطرة لإلذعان إلى ؼٌرها من المطالب المتعددة‪ .‬وبناء على ذلن ال تفعل الحكومة‬ ‫شٌبا ٌذكر أكثر من الحدٌث عن المشكلة‪ ،‬وحرمان الدولة من المزٌد من العابدات‪.507‬‬ ‫الحادي عشر‪ :‬ردود الفعل الخارجٌة بعد األحداث األخٌرة‬ ‫ الوالٌات المتحدة األمرٌكٌة‬‫بعد ثورة ‪ 17‬فبراٌر من عام ‪ ،2011‬وتخلً الحكومة األمرٌكٌة عن المذافً بسبب اعمال العنؾ الحكومً فً الشارع‪ ،‬وتؤٌد الثوار‬ ‫اللٌبٌٌٌن‪ ،‬حٌث دعمت أمرٌكا المجلس الوطنً االنتمالً‪ ،‬ووفرت ؼطاء جوي ٌحمً الثوار من لوات المذافً الجوٌة‪.‬‬ ‫وبرؼم دعم الوالٌات المتحدة للثورة اللٌبٌة بشكل عسكري لوي اال إن اعتراؾ أمرٌكا بالمجلس الوطنً االنتمالً اللٌبً تؤخر كثٌرا‬ ‫على عكس حلفاإها االخرٌن‪ ،‬حٌث اعترفت الوالٌات المتحدة بالمجلس فً اؼسطس عام ‪ ،2011‬أي بعد ستة اشهر من لٌام الثورة‪.‬‬ ‫ المساعدات األمرٌكٌة للٌبٌا‬‫منذ فبراٌر ‪ ،2011‬تم تمدٌم الجزء األكبر من المساعدات األمرٌكٌة البالؽة ‪ 170‬ملٌون دوالر للٌبٌا من أجل مواجهة التحدٌات‬ ‫اإلنسانٌة واألمنٌة الملحة فً أعماب الحرب مباشرة‪ .‬تركز المساعدات اإلضافٌة على تطوٌر المجتمع المدنً‪ ،‬وتسهٌل إجراء‬ ‫انتخابات حرة ونزٌهة‪.‬‬ ‫ولد تركزت المساعدات األمرٌكٌة على بعض المجاالت فً لٌبٌا ٌعد أهمها (اإلشراؾ على االنتخابات ‪ -‬تطوٌر األحزاب – نزع‬ ‫السالح وإعادة دمج المماتلٌن ‪ -‬التنمٌة االلتصادٌة ‪ -‬الحفاظ على أمن األسلحة الكٌمٌابٌة ‪ -‬إؼاثة الالجبٌن)‪.508‬‬ ‫ الوالٌات المتحدة بعد أحداث ‪3122‬‬‫عمب األحداث األخٌرة فً لٌبٌا وتصاعد حدة التنظٌمات األرهابٌة فً لٌبٌا بما فٌهم تنظٌم داعش‪ ،‬زادت المطالبات بالتدخل العسكري‬ ‫لحل األزمة اللٌبٌة‪ ،‬لكن الربٌس باران أوباما أمر مستشاري األمن للنظر فً ولؾ الدولة اإلسالمٌة‪ ،‬وٌمول مسإولون امرٌكٌون أن‬ ‫الؽارات الجوٌة وعملٌات الموات الخاصة هً الخٌارات المتاحة فمط ولٌس التدخل الكامل‪.‬‬ ‫كما ٌمول مسإولون فً شمال افرٌمٌا أن المحاوالت الدولٌة للحرب فً لٌبٌا سوؾ ٌكون ثمنها هو عدم االستمرار وتدفك الالجبون‪،‬‬ ‫كما ٌمول مسإولون فً الوالٌات المتحدة وأوروبا أنه ٌجب على اللٌبٌٌن تشكٌل حكومة موحدة حتى ال ٌتم تنفٌذ إجراءات من جانب‬ ‫واحد‪.‬‬

‫‪507‬‬

‫‪ - http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/libyas-other‬معركة أخرى فً لٌبٌا‪ ،‬معهد واشنطن‪ٌ 72 ،‬ونٌو ‪،7002‬‬‫‪battle‬‬ ‫‪508‬‬

‫ شراكات أمرٌكٌة فً لٌبٌا‪ ،‬سفارة الوالٌات المتحدة فً طرابلس‪ 02 ،‬أؼسطس ‪،7007‬‬‫‪http://arabic.libya.usembassy.gov/partnerships.html‬‬

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‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫ الضربات األمرٌكٌة على المتشددٌن فً لٌبٌا‬‫وبالفعل لامت الجكومة األمرٌكٌة بتوجٌه بعض الضربات لإلرهابٌٌن فً لٌبٌا‪ ،‬حٌث لال متحدث بإسم الجٌش األمرٌكً إن الطابرات‬ ‫األمرٌكٌة لد لامت بتوجٌه ضربات لبعض المتشددٌن‪ ،‬كما صرح مارن تشٌدل وهو متحدث بإسم المٌادة اإلفرٌمٌة للبنتاجون أن من‬ ‫بٌن االهداؾ فً ا لؽارات الجوٌة كان التونسً نور الدٌن شوشان‪ ،‬الذي ٌشتبه فً ضلوعه بالمٌام بهجومٌن كبٌرٌن فً تونس‪.509‬‬ ‫لكن البٌت االبٌض لال بعد األحداث انه ال ٌمكن حتى اآلن تؤكٌد نتابج الضربات الجوٌة األمرٌكٌة فً لٌبٌا‪ ،‬إال أن إدارة أوباما‬ ‫ملتزمة باتخاذ إجراءات حاسمة ضد الدولة اإلسالمٌة‪.510‬‬ ‫ مصر‬‫فً عام ‪ 2011‬كان المولؾ المصري متمثال فً عدم مشاركة لوات التحالؾ الدولً ضرب لوات المذافً وتنفٌذ حظر جوي ٌحمً‬ ‫المدنٌٌن من طابرات العمٌد اللٌبً‪.‬‬ ‫وعمب انتهاء الحرب فً لٌبٌا وانتصار الثوار‪ ،‬شهدت العاللات بٌن البلدٌن تواصل هش‪ ،‬فبرؼم إن مصر احتضنت لرابة ‪ 800‬الؾ‬ ‫الجا لٌبً فً أراضٌها اال إنها رفضت تسلٌم رموز نظام المذافً الموجودٌن بها‪ ،‬ولكن تلن التوترات بٌن البلدٌن لم ترلى إلً‬ ‫مستوى الخطر حتى ساءت العاللات بٌن البلدٌن بشكل كبٌر عمب إاختطاؾ خمسة دبلوماسٌٌن مصرٌٌن فً لٌبٌا‪ ،‬وأزمة السفٌر‬ ‫المصري‪ ،‬والطامة الكبرى عمب لٌام بعض عناصر تنظٌم داعش بمتل ‪ 21‬من االلباط المصرٌٌن‪ ،‬مما دفع بمصر الً توجٌه‬ ‫ضربات جوٌة للثؤر للمتلى المصرٌٌن‪ ،‬ولكن البرلمان اللٌبً فً طرابلس اعتبر هذا العمل عدوان خارجً على مدٌنة درنة شرق‬ ‫لٌبٌا‪.‬‬ ‫ولد كان لألحداث فً لٌبٌا تؤثٌرا لوٌا على جارتها المصرٌة من حٌث االنفالت األمنً والحدودي‪ ،‬فمد أصبحت لٌبٌا معبرا للعناصر‬ ‫األرهابٌة الذي ٌتوجهون لمصر وخاصة سٌناء‪ ،‬وكانت مصر لد حثت منذ فترة طوٌلة المجتمع الدولً للمساعدة فً مكافحة التشدد‬ ‫اإلسالمً هنان‪ ،‬ولكنها برؼم ذلن لدٌها حذر كبٌر من التدخل السعكري الؽربً بشكل كامل فً األراضً اللٌبٌة‪ ،‬وكان وزٌر‬ ‫الخارجٌة المصرٌة "سامح شكري" لد ذكر إن األمر ٌتولؾ على المرار اللٌبً‪ ،‬وأنه الٌنبؽً ألحد أن ٌتدخل‪.‬‬ ‫ الجزائر‬‫مع الثورة اللٌبٌة عام ‪ 2011‬ولفت الجزابر بجانب المذافً‪ ،‬ولم تدعم الثورة اللٌبٌة حتى انه هنان اتهامات من الثوار اللٌبٌن تجاه‬ ‫الحكومة الجزابرٌة بمحاولة اجهاض ثورة ‪ 17‬فبراٌر‪ ،‬وشهدت العاللات توترا طوال األشهر الستة لالنتفاضة اللٌبٌة المسلحة‪.‬‬ ‫وبعد الثورة كانت الجزابر أٌضا لها نصٌبا من اإلنفالت األمنً فً لٌبٌا‪ ،‬كما إن الجزابر منذ تسعٌنٌات المرن الماضً لها تارٌخ‬ ‫دموي من الحرب مع اإلسالمٌٌن‪ ،‬كما إنها كانت دابما شرٌن ربٌسً فً الحملة الؽربٌة ضد التشدد االسالمً فً منطمة الساحل‪،‬‬ ‫ولكنها أٌضا حرٌصة على الحفاظ على سٌاستها التملٌدٌة من عدم التدخل‪.‬‬ ‫وبالفعل لامت الجزابر بعدة إجراءات لحماٌة حدودها مع لٌبٌا‪ ،‬فمد لامت الحكومة بتضٌك إمكانٌة العبور من الحدود اللٌبٌة للمسلحٌن‬ ‫اإلسالمٌٌن‪ ،‬وذلن عمب هجمات عام ‪ 2013‬على حمل للؽاز فً أمٌناس فً الجزابر‪ ،‬حٌث لتل ‪ 40‬من عمال النفط هنان‪ ،‬كما إن‬ ‫الموات الجزابرٌة لامت باعتمال سبعة مسلحٌن لٌبٌٌن لرب الحدود بالمرب من أمٌناس‪ ،‬كما إن الجٌش فً كثٌر من األحٌان ٌموم‬ ‫‪509‬‬

‫‪ - http://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya‬الموات األمرٌكٌة تجري ؼارات جوٌة على متشددٌن فً لٌبٌا‪ ،‬روٌترز‪ 07 ،‬فبراٌر ‪،7002‬‬‫‪security-usa-idUSKCN0VS1DR‬‬ ‫‪510‬‬ ‫‪ - http://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya‬البٌت األبٌض‪ :‬ال ٌمكن تؤكٌد نتابج الضربات الجوٌة فً لٌبٌا‪ ،‬روٌترز‪ 07 ،‬فبراٌر ‪،7002‬‬‫‪security-whitehouse-idUSKCN0VS2DJ‬‬

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‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫بضبط أسلحة مهربة من لٌبٌا‪ ،‬ولكن إحدى المحاضرٌن فً مجال األمن بجامعة الجزابر ذكر إن الدخول فً حرب كبرى فً لٌبٌا‬ ‫لد ٌكون لها تؤثٌر سلبً من حٌث المخاطر األمنٌة وأزمة الالجبٌن‪.‬‬ ‫ تونس‬‫مع لٌام الثورة اللٌبٌة كانت تونس من أكثر الدولة استضافة لالجبٌٌن اللٌبٌٌن الذٌن لدروا بملٌون ونصؾ الملٌون الجا بتونس فمط‪،‬‬ ‫كما لم ٌنكر الباجً لابد السبسً‪ ،‬فً تصرٌحات الحمة‪ ،‬دور تونس فً الثورة اللٌبٌة‪ ،‬إذ ألر أنه تم التنسٌك معه كربٌس للحكومة‬ ‫االنتمالٌة "حتى تكون لاطرة لتمرٌر السالح للثوار اللٌبٌٌن"‪.‬‬ ‫وبعد االزمة ا للٌبٌة الحدٌثة اخذت العاللات الدبلوماسٌة بٌن البلدٌن فً التوتر‪ ،‬حٌث اعترفت حكومة مهدي جمعة التونسٌة بحكومة‬ ‫طبرق اللٌبٌة‪ ،‬وهو ما أثار حفٌظة حكومة لٌبٌا فً طرابلس ولوات فجر لٌبٌا‪ ،‬ومن جهة أخرى‪ ،‬أدى اختطاؾ أكثر من ‪ 170‬تونسٌا‬ ‫فً مناطك نفوذ حكومة طرابلس إلى توتر العاللات بٌن الطرفٌن‪.‬‬ ‫ولكن بعد األحداث األخٌرة فً لٌبٌا والصراع بٌن حكومتٌن داخل البالد ومع انتشار الفوضى‪ ،‬كان لألمر التؤثٌر األكبر على الدولة‬ ‫التونسٌة‪ ،‬ولد تحدث بعض مسإلً األمن التونسٌٌن إن هنان ‪ 3000‬تونسً لد ؼادروا تونس لإلنضمام إلً تنظٌم داعش وإن الكثٌر‬ ‫منهم بالفعل لد عاد استعدادا لدخول تونس مرة أخرى بعد تلمٌهم التدرٌب فً لٌبٌا‪ ،‬مما ٌشكل تهدٌدا كبٌرا لألمن التونسً‪ ،‬ومن هنا‬ ‫اتخذت الحكومة التونسٌة العدٌد من اإلجراءات األحترازٌة ومنها البدء فً بناء حاجز حدودي طوله ‪ 200‬كم على طول الحدود مع‬ ‫لٌبٌا‪.‬‬ ‫كما صرح الربٌس التونسً باجً لابد السبسً بتصرٌحات لال فٌها ‪ٌ" :‬نبؽً لتلن الدول التً تعتزم التدخل العسكري فً لٌبٌا لبل‬ ‫أي شًء أن تؤخذ فً االعتبار مصالح دول الجوار"‪ ،‬كما سافر ربٌس البرلمان التونسً إلى بروكسل للتعبٌر عن مخاوؾ البالد‬ ‫بشؤن عمل عسكري ؼربً إلى نظرابه فً البرلمان األوروبً‪.511‬‬ ‫ السودان‬‫لبل لٌام الثورة اللٌبٌة كان الود بٌن نظامً المذافً وعمر البشٌر الربٌس السودانً لد تحول إلً حرب خفٌة جدٌدة بٌن الطرفٌن‪ ،‬ومع‬ ‫لٌام الثورة اللٌبٌة حضر السودان الستكمال تلن الحرب بٌن نظام البشٌر ونظام المذافً‪ ،‬حٌث دعم البشٌر الثوار فً لٌبٌا‪ ،‬كما سارع‬ ‫عمر البشٌر مع سموط المذافً بزٌارة مدٌنة بنؽازي‪ ،‬مهد الثورة اللٌبٌة‪ ،‬كؤول اعتراؾ عربً بشرعٌة الوضع المابم فً لٌبٌا‪ ،‬ولكن‬ ‫فٌما بعد اشتكت السودان من تسرب األسلحة اللٌبٌة إلى جماعات مناهضة له‪.‬‬ ‫ومع االنمسام الحالً فً لٌبٌا ورؼم تصرٌاحت حكومة السودان باستعدادها للتوسط فً الصراع الدابر هنان‪ ،‬إال أن هنان العدٌد من‬ ‫االتهامات من حكومة الثنً فً لٌبٌا إلً الحكومة السودانٌة بؤنها تمدم المساعدة لموات فجر لٌبٌا‪ٌ ،‬رجع المحللون دعم المذافً لفجر‬ ‫لٌبٌا إلً وجود بعض التطابك األٌدلوجً بٌنها وبٌن رأس السلطة فً السودان المحسوب على تٌار اإلسالم السٌاسً‪ ،‬ولكن هدأت‬ ‫السودان من وتٌرة التصاعد من خالل دعوة البشٌر لعبدهللا الثنً ربٌس وزراء حكومة طبرق للمدوم الً الخرطوم‪.512‬‬ ‫ولكن ظل التوتر لابما عندما اتهم ربٌس الحكومة اللٌبٌة فً الشرق عبدهللا الثنً الخرطوم بمحاولة نمل األسلحة والذخٌرة جوا إلً‬ ‫الحكومة األخرى فً طرابلس‪ ،‬فً حٌن تنفً الخرطوم هذا االتهام موضحة أن األسلحة مخصصة لموة حدودٌة مشتركة أنشبت‬

‫‪ - http://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-security-idUSKCN0VR202‬جٌران لٌبٌا فً شمال أفرٌمٌا‪ ،‬روٌترز‪ 02 ،‬فبراٌر ‪،7002‬‬ ‫‪ - https://goo.gl/LPOaSo‬تصعٌد حكومة الثنً وحفتر ضد الخرطوم‪ ،‬العربً الجدٌد‪ٌ 2 ،‬ناٌر ‪،7002‬‬

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‫‪511‬‬ ‫‪512‬‬

‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫بموجب اتفالٌة ثنابٌة‪ ،‬كما أعلنت الحكومة السودانٌة فً منتصؾ عام ‪ 2015‬عن لٌام الموات اللٌبٌة باعتمال المنصل السودانً فً‬ ‫مدٌنة بنؽازي‪.513‬‬ ‫الثانً عشر‪ :‬مساعً الحلول فً لٌبٌا‬ ‫مع األحداث التً مرت بها لٌبٌا والتنازع على الحكم بٌن سلطتٌن منذ أكثر من عام ونصؾ عام‪ ،‬مما أدى إلى انمسام فً مإسسات‬ ‫الدولة‪ ،‬دفع ذلن األمم المتحدة لرعاٌة حوار بٌن الفصابل السٌاسٌة المتنازعة انتهى للتوصل إلى إتفاق ولع فً مدٌنة "الصخٌرات"‬ ‫بالمؽرب‪.‬‬ ‫وذلن حٌث اتفك المجتمعون فً "الصخٌرات" من بعض نواب برلمان طبرق وبرلمان طرابلس على تعٌن كال من على المطرانً‬ ‫وعبدالسالم لاجمان كنواب لربٌس الوزراء فاٌز السراج‪ ،‬كما نص االتفاق على تشكٌل حكومة توافك وطنً تمود مرحلة انتمالٌة من‬ ‫عامٌن‪ ،‬تنتهً بإجراء انتخابات تشرٌعٌة‪ ،‬كما نص االتفاق على إن ربٌس حكومة الوحدة الوطنٌة فاٌز السراج ٌرأس كذلن المجلس‬ ‫الرباسً الذي ٌضم خمسة أعضاء آخرٌن ٌمثلون جمٌع األطراؾ اللٌبٌة‪ ،‬وثالثة وزراء كبار ٌمومون بتسمٌة الوزراء‪.‬‬ ‫ونملت عنها وكالة األناضول لولها أن االتفاق نص أٌضا على أن ٌكون ممر الحكومة فً طرابلس‪ ،‬وإن السلطة التشرٌعٌة ستكون‬ ‫ممثلة فً مجلس النواب المنعمد بطبرق شرلً البالد‪ ،‬أما المإتمر الوطنً العام المنعمد فً طرابلس فسوؾ ٌشكل المجلس األعلى‬ ‫للدولة‪ ،‬وهو مجلس إستشاري للحكومة التً ستكون مدتها عاما واحدا لابال للتمدٌد‪ ،‬علما أن الحكومة ملزمة بإصدار مشروع دستور‬ ‫جدٌد ٌعرض لالستفتاء‪.514‬‬ ‫ولد حضر التولٌع مبعوث األمم المتحدة إلى لٌبٌا مارتن كوبلر ووزراء خارجٌة عرب وأوربٌون وممثلون عن هٌبات دبلوماسٌة‬ ‫ودولٌة‪ ،‬إضافة إلى أعضاء فً مجلس النواب المنحل‪ ،‬والمإتمر الوطنً العام‪.‬‬ ‫وبرؼم ذلن فمد ذكرت بعض األسماء المرشحة لتولً حمابب وزارٌة مهمة إن اتفاق "الصخٌرات" لٌس اتفالا مثالٌا‪ ،‬ولكنه ٌحمك‬ ‫الحد األدنى من الشروط الضرورٌة لخروج البالد من أزمتها الحادة‪ ،‬سواء فً الشك السٌاسً أو االلتصادي أو األمنً أو اإلنسانً‪.‬‬ ‫كما إن االتفاق لم ٌحظ باإلجماع ورفضه كال من ربٌس البرلمان فً طرابلس نوري بوسهمٌن وكذلن ربٌس برلمان طبرق عمٌلة‬ ‫صالح‪ ،‬ولاال إن المولعٌن ال ٌمثلون إال أنفسهم‪ ،‬ولكن على الرؼم من ذلن الرفض إلً إن االتفاق بدأ فً أن ٌرى النور بعد أن لام‬ ‫‪ 100‬نابب بالبرلمان الللٌبً المنعمد بطبرق الذي ٌتولى السلطة التشرٌعٌة بموجب اتفاق "الصخٌرات" بالتولٌع على بٌان منحوا فٌه‬ ‫الثمة لحكومة الوفاق الوطنً الممدمة من مجلس رباستها وبرنامج عملها‪.515‬‬ ‫ولكن بعد محادثات طوٌلة وبعض الصعوبات التً واجهت فاٌز السراج ربٌس حكومة الوفاق الوطنً من دخول طرابلس‪ ،‬إال أن فً‬ ‫النهاٌ ة لد تمكنت من دخول طرابلس وفرض سٌطرتها على المدٌنة‪ ،‬كذلن أعلنت حكومة طرابلس ؼٌر المعترؾ بها دولٌا برباسة‬ ‫خلٌفة الؽوٌل تمدٌم استمالتها تؤكٌدا على حمن الدماء‪ ،‬وطلبت الحكومة الجدٌدة من كل المإسسات استخدام شعارها والحصول على‬ ‫أذن منها لبل أرسال أي أموال للمإسسات‪.‬‬ ‫هكذا أصبحت حكومة الوفاق اللٌبٌة ال تواجه سلطة أخرى سوى سلطة برلمان طبرق المعترؾ به دولٌا‪ ،‬وعلى الرؼم من لٌام ‪100‬‬ ‫عضو من أصل ‪ 198‬عضو فً برلمان طبرق بالتولٌع على بٌان ٌدعمون فٌه حكومة الوفاق‪ ،‬إال أن البرلمان رسمٌا فشل فً‬ ‫التصوٌت ألجل منح الثمة فً الحكومة الجدٌدة‪ ،‬ولكن المجتمع الدولً المعترؾ بهذا البرلمان ٌحث األعضاء على التنازل عن‬ ‫السلطة لحكومة فاٌز السراج‪.‬‬

‫‪ - http://goo.gl/FRgjWp‬اعتمال لنصل السودان ببنؽازي‪ ،‬العربٌة‪ 7 ،‬أبرٌل ‪،7002‬‬ ‫‪ - http://goo.gl/82Mbg8‬أبرز مضامٌن اتفاق "الصخٌرات"‪ ،‬الجزٌرة‪.‬نت‪ 02 ،‬دٌسمبر ‪،7002‬‬ ‫‪ - http://goo.gl/d70emY‬حكومة وفاق لٌبٌا تتهٌؤ لمهامها بعد ثمة البرلمان‪ ،‬الجزٌرة‪.‬نت‪ 72 ،‬فبراٌر ‪،7002‬‬

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‫‪515‬‬

‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫ولد نالت حكومة الوفاق بمجرد تولٌها السلطة فً طرابلس الدعم من العدٌد من الهٌبات المختلفة مثل المصرؾ المركزي وحرس‬ ‫المنشؤت النفطٌة والمإسسة اللٌبٌة لالستثمار‪ ،‬كما أعربت عدة دول عن رؼبتها فً إعادة افتتاح سفاراتها فً طرابلس بعد وصول‬ ‫الحكومة الجدٌدة‪ ،‬وٌنتظر الحكومة الجدٌدة العدٌد من المهام لعل أهمها استكمال إجراءات الحفاظ على وحدة األراضً اللٌبٌة عن‬ ‫طرٌك تنازل برلمان طبرق عن السلطة‪ ،‬كذلن مواجهة داعش والهجرة الؽٌر شرعٌة وحل أزمة المٌلٌشٌات وخالؾ ذلن أمورا‬ ‫أخرى‪.516‬‬ ‫الثالث عشر‪ :‬حموق االنسان‬ ‫ٌعود وضع حموق االنسان المتدهور فً لٌبٌا إلً عهد ما لبل الثورة فً ؼضون حكم المذافً‪ ،‬ولكن فٌما بعد سموط المذافً أمل‬ ‫الشعب اللٌبً فً تحسن األمور أكثر فؤكثر‪ ،‬ولكن اندالع احداث ‪ 2014‬بٌن اللواء حفتر ولوات فجر لٌبٌا أدى إلً تدهور األمور‬ ‫إلً وضع أسوء حتى من ما كان لبل ثورة ‪ 17‬من فبراٌر‪.‬‬ ‫ولد أدت المصادمات فً المدٌنتٌن إلى تدهور األوضاع االنسانٌة وحموق اإلنسان‪ ،‬وفً طرابلس كان هنان انمطاع للكهرباء لما‬ ‫ٌمارب ‪ 18‬ساعة فً كل مرة‪ ،‬إضافة إلى النمص فً المٌاه والدٌزٌل وؼاز الطهً وؼٌرها من الضرورٌات‪ ،‬كما أثرت صعوبة‬ ‫توزٌع الولود بدرجة كبٌرة على توفٌر العدٌد من الخدمات المصرفٌة‪ ،‬وارتفعت معدالت الجرابم التملٌدٌة‪ ،‬وٌوجد العدٌد من‬ ‫االنتهاكات الربٌسٌة لحموق االنسان فً لٌبٌا أثناء النزاع الدابر بٌن طرفً الصراع وٌعد أهما كالتالً ‪:‬‬ ‫ المصف العشوائً والهجمات على األهداف المدنٌة‬‫لجؤت كافة األطراؾ فً كل من طرابلس وبنؽازي إلى استخدام أسلحة متعددة فً المناطك المؤهولة بالسكان وتكررت الهجمات‬ ‫الجوٌة التً لامت بها "عملٌة الكرامة"على المناطك المؤهولة بالسكان فً بنؽازي منذ شهر ماٌو ‪ ،2014‬بٌنما كانت هنان طلعتان‬ ‫جوٌتان فً طرابلس ضد الجماعات المسلحة التابعة لعملٌة الفجر‪.‬‬ ‫إن المتال بٌن الجماعات المسلحة ٌجري على مدى لرٌب من المدنٌٌن‪ ،‬وؼالبا ما ٌتجاهل المماتلون التؤثٌر الوالع على المدنٌٌن‪ ،‬كما‬ ‫لم ٌتم اعطاء المدنٌٌن الفرصة إلخالء منازلهم لبل بدء المتال‪ ،‬وفً طرابلس كان المتال فً البداٌة أكثر شدة حول المطار‪ ،‬ولد تسبب‬ ‫المتال من أجل السٌطرة على المطار فً أضرار جسٌمة فً أهداؾ مدنٌة أخرى منها المستشفٌات والمبانً‪ ،‬كما أدى إلى تدمٌر‬ ‫العدٌد من الطابرات المدنٌة واشتعال منشآت كبٌرة لتخزٌن الولود فً طرٌك المطار‪ .‬كما تضررت البنٌة التحتٌة مثل جسر ‪41‬‬ ‫الربٌسً‪.‬‬ ‫ولد ولعت إصابات بٌن المدنٌٌن فً طرابلس بما فً ذلن النساء واالطفال والمواطنٌن االجانب‪ ،‬ولد وردت تمارٌر من مستشفى‬ ‫الزاوٌة االكادٌمً بممتل ‪ 12‬رجل وسٌدة واحدة وإصابة ‪ 421‬منهم طفلٌن نتٌجة للعنؾ الدابر فً فترة شهر أؼسطس ‪،2014‬‬ ‫وبحلول ‪ 24‬أؼسطس تلمً مركز طرابلس الطبً حوالً ‪ 100‬جثة منها حوالً ‪ 21‬سٌدة و‪ 9‬أطفال على االلل‪ .‬ومن المواطنٌن‬ ‫االجانب وردت تمارٌرعن ممتل عدد من السودانٌٌن فً حوادث منفصلة منهم ‪ 8‬أشخاص فً ‪ٌ 28‬ولٌو فً حً الكرٌمٌة‪ .‬وتشكل‬ ‫األلؽام األرضٌة المستخدمة فً منطمة المطار والذخابر ؼٌر المنفجرة خطرا كبٌرا على المدنٌٌن خاصة االطفال‪.‬‬ ‫ استهداف المستشفٌات العالجٌة‬‫ٌمنع المانون االنسانً الدولً الهجوم على المنشآت الطبٌة والعاملٌن فً مجال الرعاٌة الصحٌة والجرحى والمرضى‪ ،‬اال أنه تم‬ ‫لصؾ المستشفٌات فً طرابلس وبنؽازي من أطراؾ النزاع سواء من لوات حفتر أو الموات الداعمة للمإتمر الوطنً‪ ،‬ولد اضطر‬ ‫مستشفى العافٌة المرٌب من مطار طرابلس لإلؼالق فً ‪ٌ 17‬ولٌو بعد تعرضه لعدة لذابؾ‪ ،‬كما أصٌب مركز طرابلس الطبً‬ ‫بمذابؾ فً ‪ 13‬من شهر أؼسطس عام ‪ ،2014‬وفً بنؽازي لامت جماعة أنصار الشرٌعة باحتالل مستشفى الجالء لعدة أسابٌع‪.‬‬

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‫‪ - http://arabic.cnn.com/world/2016/04/06/libya-crisis-esaraj‬حكومة الوفاق الوطنً تخطو نحو أنهاء االنمسام‪ 2 ،‬أبرٌل ‪،7002‬‬‫‪government‬‬

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‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫كما إن لدرة المستشفٌات التً ال تزال تعمل فً طرابلس وبنؽازي فً معالجة ضحاٌا المصؾ والمتال ٌفوق طالتها بكثٌر‪ ،‬إضافة‬ ‫إلى ذلن‪ ،‬فإن رحٌل أعداد كبٌرة من الموظفٌن الطبٌٌن الدولٌٌن من لٌبٌا‪ ،‬وهم ٌشكلون وفما لوزارة الصحة ‪ %11‬من إجمالً‬ ‫الموظفٌن الطبٌٌن‪ ،‬لد أعاق أعمال المستشفٌات بصورة أكبر‪ ،‬كما أبلػ العاملون فً المستشفٌات فً طرابلس والزاوٌة عن نمص فً‬ ‫اإلمدادات الطبٌة والتً ال ٌمكن الحصول علٌها من منشآت التخزٌن الوالع بعضها بالمرب من طرٌك المطار ولم ٌعد باإلمكان‬ ‫الوصول إلٌها أو تم تدمٌرها‪.‬‬ ‫االعتمال واالختطاف والتعذٌب‬ ‫تلمت بعثة األمم المتحدة لحموق االنسان فً لٌبٌا تمارٌر أولٌة تفٌد باختطاؾ عشرات المدنٌٌن فً طرابلس وبنؽازي خالل احداث‬ ‫عام ‪ 2014‬فمط بسبب هوٌتهم المبلٌة أو الدٌنٌة أو العابلٌة‪ ،‬ولد تصل حاالت االختطاؾ هذا إلً مستوى اإلختفاء المسري‪ ،‬وهو ما‬ ‫ٌعرؾ فً المانون الدولً باختطاؾ شخص ما أو سجنه سرا على ٌد دولة أو منظمة سٌاسٌة أو طرؾ ثالث‪ ،‬مع رفض الجهة‬ ‫المختطفة اإلعتراؾ بمصٌر الشخص‪.‬‬ ‫وأثناء أسابٌع المتال الستة فً طرابلس‪ ،‬وردت تمارٌر بمٌام الطرفٌن بعملٌات إعتمال وإختطاؾ أحٌانا على أساس معلومات عثر‬ ‫علٌها على هواتفهم أو بسبب أسماء عابالتهم‪ ،‬ومن بٌنهم مدون وناشط سٌاسً عارض تواجد الجماعات المسلحة فً طرابلس‪ ،‬وتم‬ ‫كذلن اختطاؾ إمام صوفً معروؾ بانتماده إلحدى التحالفات المسلحة‪ ،‬كما تم أٌضا إختطاؾ عضو فً لجنة األزمة‪ ،‬وهنان مزاعم‬ ‫بتعرض بعض الضحاٌا للتعذٌب‪.‬‬ ‫وفً شرق لٌبٌا تلمت البعثة معلومات تفٌد بؤنه بعد منتصؾ ماٌو احتجزت الجماعات الداعمة لعملٌة الكرامة عشرات الرجال فً‬ ‫المناطك التً تسٌطر علٌها على أساس انتماءاتهم السٌاسٌة‪ ،‬وهنان ادعاءات بتعرض بعض المحتجزٌن للضرب والتعذٌب أٌضا‪،‬‬ ‫ولد احتجزت الجماعات الداعمة لعملٌة الكرامة العدٌدٌن فً سجن لرنادة شرق بنؽازي والذي وردت تمارٌر بؤنه ٌحتوي حالٌا على‬ ‫‪ 80‬سجٌن من المتال االخٌر‪.‬‬ ‫ المتل غٌر المشروع‬‫تم االبالغ بصورة مستمرة أثناء فترة االضطرابات عام ‪ 2014‬عن اؼتٌاالت وعملٌات لتل ؼٌر مشروع فً بنؽازي وطرابلس‪،‬و‬ ‫هً ما ٌجرمها المانون الدولً بسبب كون المتل ؼٌر المشروع هو طرٌمة إعدام لشخص من دون أٌة أسباب واستخدام الموة الممٌتة‬ ‫معه وعدم توفٌر مناخ أمن لدفاع المجنً علٌه عن نفسه‪ ،‬ومن أحداث المتل ؼٌر المشروع فً لٌبٌا لتل الناشطة البارزة فً مجال‬ ‫حموق اإلنسان سلوى بولعمٌص فً منزلها ببنؽازي‪ ،‬وفً ‪ٌ 17‬ولٌو تمت مهاجمة العضوة السابمة فً المإتمر الوطنً العام عن‬ ‫درنة فرٌحة البركاوي ولتلها من لبل مجهولٌن‪ .‬وفً ‪ٌ 21‬ولٌو‪ ،‬وفً ‪ 13‬أؼسطس تم إطالق الرصاص على ربٌس شرطة طرابلس‬ ‫العمٌد دمحم السوٌسً ولتله فً طرابلس من لبل مجهولٌن‪.‬‬ ‫ولد وردت تمارٌر عن حاالت إعدام علنٌة تصل إلى حد اإلعدام بإجراءات موجزة فً درنة من لبل جماعة مجلس شورى شباب‬ ‫اإلسالم‪ ،‬وشمل ذلن إعدام رجلٌن فً ‪ٌ 24‬ولٌو ومواطن مصري فً شهر أؼسطس‪ ،‬ولد ورد أنه اعترؾ بالمتل والسرلة أثناء‬ ‫استجواب "اللجنة الشرعٌة لتسوٌة المنازعات" والتً تتبع مجلس شورى شباب اإلسالم له حٌث تم لتله عن طرٌك إطالك النار علٌه‬ ‫فً ملعب كرة المدم‪.‬‬ ‫ االعتداء على العاملٌن فً وسائل االعالم‬‫تزاٌدت االعتداءات على اإلعالمٌٌن بإطراد فً عام ‪ ،2014‬ولد وجد أن هنان إعتداءات على الصحفٌٌن من لبل جمٌع أطراؾ‬ ‫الصراع المستمر‪ ،‬بما فً ذلن المٌود المفروضة على الحركة‪ ،‬كمصادرة المعدات‪ ،‬وعملٌات اإلختطاؾ واإلؼتٌاالت‪.‬‬

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‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫وتشمل حاالت اإلعتداءات المبلػ عنها ضد اإلعالمٌٌن إختطاؾ مراسل ومصور من إحدى المنوات فً األول من أؼسطس لعدة‬ ‫أٌام بعد تؽطٌة مظاهرة فً طرابلس‪ ،‬كما تعرض ممدم برنامج تلفزٌونً إلطالق نار فً أبو سلٌم فً الثانً من أؼسطس‪ ،‬وكذلن‬ ‫إختطفوا خمسة موظفٌن من محطة تلفزٌون برلة فً إجدابٌا فً ‪ 9‬أؼسطس فً طرٌك عودتهم من جلسة إفتتاح مجلس النواب فً‬ ‫طبرق‪ ،‬وإختطاؾ اثنٌن من الصحفٌٌن العاملٌن فً لناة لٌبٌا الدولٌة عند نمطة تفتٌش فً طرابلس‪.‬‬ ‫ولد تدخلت بعض وسابل اإلعالم بصورة متزاٌدة فً الصراع الدابر‪ ،‬حٌث دعمت بعض المحطات علنا أحد االطراؾ أو تعرضت‬ ‫للضؽط للمٌام بذلن‪ ،‬وفً طرابلس‪ ،‬أولفت الحكومة فً ‪ 20‬أؼسطس بث لنوات تلفزٌون لٌبٌا الوطنٌة والرسمٌة المملوكتٌن للدولة‪،‬‬ ‫مشٌرة إلى إستٌالء أحد الفصابل المشاركة فً الصراع على هذه المحطات‪ ،‬فً ‪ 24‬و‪ 25‬من شهر أؼسطس‪.517‬‬ ‫ النزوح الداخلً‬‫بلػ عدد النازحٌن داخلٌا فً لٌبٌا حوالً ‪ 435‬ألؾ شخص‪ ،‬وبٌنهم كثٌرون نزحوا أكثر من مرة‪ .‬وكان ما ٌزٌد عن ‪ 100‬ألؾ من‬ ‫النازحٌن داخلٌا ٌمٌمون فً مخٌمات مإلتة ومدارس ومستودعات‪.‬‬ ‫ المحاكمات الجائرة‬‫بالرؼم من تعطل نظام المضاء الجنابً فً معظمه عن العمل‪ ،‬فمد حاكمت محكمة الجناٌات فً طرابلس ‪ 37‬من المسإولٌن السابمٌن‬ ‫فً عهد معمر المذافً‪ ،‬لما ُزعم عن ارتكابهم جرابم حرب وجرابم أخرى خالل النزاع المسلح فً عام ‪ .2011‬وشابت المحاكمة‬ ‫مخالفات جسٌمة لإلجراءات الواجبة‪ ،‬وخاصة فٌما ٌتعلك بحموق الدفاع وتماعس المحكمة عن التحمٌك على النحو الواجب فً‬ ‫االدعاءات عن تعرض المتهمٌن للتعذٌب وؼٌره من ضروب سوء المعاملة‪ .‬وكان من بٌن المتهمٌن سٌؾ اإلسالم المذافً‪ ،‬الذي‬ ‫ُحوكم ؼٌابٌا حٌث ال ٌزال محتجزا فً مكان لم ٌُفصح عنه فً بلدة الزنتان‪ .‬وفً ‪ٌ 28‬ولٌو ‪ ،‬أصدرت المحكمة أحكاما باإلعدام على‬ ‫سٌؾ اإلسالم المذافً وعبد هللا السنوسً وسبعة متهمٌن آخرٌن‪ ،‬كما أصدرت أحكاما بالسجن لمدد تتراوح بٌن خمس سنوات‪،‬‬ ‫والسجن المإبد مدى الحٌاة على ‪ 23‬متهما آخري‪.‬‬ ‫ حموق المرأة‬‫وعملت جماعات مسلحة على ترهٌب وتهدٌد الناشطات والمدافعات عن حموق اإلنسان لمنعهن من المشاركة فً الشإون العامة‪،‬‬ ‫ومن الدعوة إلى ضمان حموق المرأة ونزع السالح‪ ،‬وتزاٌد زواج األطفال‪ ،‬فمد ذكرت األنباء أن فتٌات فً سن الثانٌة عشرة أو نحو‬ ‫ذلن تزوجن من مماتلٌن فً تنظٌم "الدولة اإلسالمٌة" فً مدٌنة درنة لحماٌة عابالتهن‪.‬‬ ‫كما عدل "المإتمر الوطنً العام"‪ ،‬وممره طرابلس‪ ،‬المانون الصادر عام ‪ 1984‬بشؤن أحكام الزواج والطالق والمٌراث‪ ،‬فوضع‬ ‫بنودا تنطوي على مزٌد من التمٌٌز ضد النساء‪ ،‬وتزٌد من احتماالت زواج األطفال‪ .‬وأجازت التعدٌالت للرجل أن ٌطلك زوجته من‬ ‫ط رؾ واحد ودون الحصول على تصدٌك من المحكمة‪ ،‬كما ٌمنع المرأة من أن تكون بٌن الشهود على عمود الزواج‪ ،‬وعانت النساء‬ ‫من المٌود التعسفٌة على حرٌتهن فً التنمل حٌث كانت تصل إلً منع من السفر للخارج فً بعض الحاالت‪ ،‬تمشٌا مع فتوى بذلن‬ ‫أصدرها مفتً الدٌار اللٌبٌة فً عام ‪.2012‬‬ ‫ حموق الالجئٌن والمهاجرٌن‬‫فً سبتمبرالماضً أفادت تمدٌرات األمم المتحدة إلى أنه ٌوجد فً لٌبٌا لرابة ‪ 250‬ألفا من الالجبٌن والمهاجرٌن وطالبً اللجوء‬ ‫الذٌن ٌحتاجون للحماٌة أو المساعدة‪ .‬وكان كثٌرون منهم عُرضة لالنتهاكات الجسٌمة وللتمٌٌز ولالستؽالل فً العمل‪ .‬وكان أبناء‬ ‫‪ - http://goo.gl/HpNpX3‬نظرة عامة على انتهاكات المانون الدولً فً لٌبٌا‪ ،‬األمم المتحدة‪ 2 ،‬سبتمبر ‪،7002‬‬

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‫‪517‬‬

‫‪15th Model of American Congress‬‬

‫‪Congressional Research Service Report‬‬

‫األللٌات الدٌنٌة على وجه الخصوص‪ ،‬والسٌما المسٌحٌٌن‪ ،‬هدفا للجماعات المسلحة اإلسالمٌة‪ .‬وتعرض بعض األجانب الذٌن دخلوا‬ ‫لٌبٌا بشكل ؼٌر لانونً لإلبتزاز والتعذٌب واإلختطاؾ والعنؾ الجنسً‪.‬‬ ‫وظل "جهاز مكافحة الهجرة ؼٌر الشرعٌة"‪ ،‬وممره طرابلس‪ٌ ،‬حتجز عددا ٌتراوح ما بٌن ألفٌن وخمسمابة وأربعة آالؾ من‬ ‫األجانب الذٌن ال ٌحملون وثابك‪ ،‬وذلن رهن احتجاز إلى أجل ؼٌر محدد فً ‪ 15‬مركزا فً شتى أنحاء البالد‪ ،‬حٌث ٌتعرض‬ ‫كثٌرون منهم للتعذٌب‪ ،‬عمب المبض علٌهم أو اعتراضهم فً البحر‪.‬‬ ‫ووسط مناخ من العنؾ واالنتهاكات‪ ،‬سعى اآلالؾ إلى مؽادرة لٌبٌا وعبور البحر األبٌض المتوسط بؽٌة الوصول إلى أوروبا فً‬ ‫مراكب ؼٌر صالحة لإلبحار‪ .‬وبحلول ‪ 5‬دٌسمبر‪ ،‬كان نحو ‪ 143‬ألؾ الجا ومهاجر لد وصلوا إٌطالٌا عن طرٌك البحر‪ ،‬وأبحر‬ ‫معظمهم من لٌبٌا‪ ،‬بٌنما ؼرق ما ٌزٌد عن ‪ 2880‬شخصا أثناء محاولتهم السفر بحرا‪.518‬‬

‫الرابع عشر‪ :‬مستمبل العاللات الثنائٌة وخٌارات الوالٌات المتحدة اإلستراتٌجٌة‬ ‫تعد لٌبٌا دولة ذات أهمٌة إستراتٌجٌة كبرى للوالٌات المتحدة‪ ،‬وترؼب دابما واشنطن فً دعم إستمرار تلن المنطمة منذ انتهاء الثورة‬ ‫ضد المذافً‪.‬‬ ‫وتجد الوالٌات المتحدة أهمٌة لٌبٌا فً كونها من أهم الدول المصدرة للنفط فً منطمة الشرق األوسط‪ ،‬وكذلن لربها من السواحل‬ ‫الجنوبٌة للمارة األوروبٌة‪ ،‬وفً الفترة الماضٌة زادت أهمٌة لٌبٌا مع ظهور الجماعات المتشددة على أراضٌها وكذلن تنظٌم "داعش"‬ ‫اإلرهابً‪ ،‬ومن هنا تجد الوالٌات المتحدة أهمٌة كبرى للبحث عن الخٌارات المتاحة من أجل حل األزمة اللٌبٌة‪ ،‬ولعل من أهمها‬ ‫إمكانٌة التوصل لحلول والعٌة بٌن األطراؾ المتنازعة هنان‪ ،‬وذلن من أجل التركٌز على محاربة داعش واإلرهاب فً المنطمة‪،‬‬ ‫وتمدٌم الدعم اإللتصادي لحل األزمة اإلنسانٌة هنان مع إمكانٌة تمدٌم دعم أخر سٌاسً وعسكري فً حالة الوصول لحل بٌن‬ ‫األطراؾ المتنازعة‪.‬‬ ‫‪.‬‬

‫‪ - https://goo.gl/Tz96sD‬لٌبٌا ‪ ،7002/7002‬منظمة العفو الدولٌة‪،‬‬

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