MAC 2011 Background Paper by MACani Magazine

10TH Model American Congress MAC Congressional Research Service Report MAC CRS 2011

MAC 2011

A decade of Ventures… …Honoring Our Virtues

Model AMeriCAn Congress 2011 dediCAtes this yeAr to:

The inspirational Egyptian Revolution and the great Martyrs 2011 Preamble MAC 2011â&#x20AC;¦.A historiCAl yeAr in neW egypt!!!

Ten years ago, the founding fathers of MAC have laid its pillars, hoping to have one of the strongest academic models among all students’ activities. And there, their wish turns out to be a reality; Model American Congress has proved year after the other that it is one of the most successful and prestigious students’ activities, not only in Egypt but also in the Middle East.

But this year is unique. Model American Congress is witnessing an unforgettable historical revolution that was no like any previous revolution all over the history. It is THE EGYPTIAN YOUTH that held the spark of freedom on their shoulders and called for their political, economic, and social rights. It is that youth that sacrificed with their blood for a better Egypt. And we shall be PROUD of the fact that we are from “the revolutionary generation”. Based on that fact, the social responsibility laid on our shoulders got heavier. Egypt needs us to act collaboratively…Egypt now needs more ambitious, knowledgeable, and skilful youth than before. This can be reached by many activities and tools and MAC is a main corner of those tools!!!

MAC introduces you to various experiences that allow you to be different. It is primarily established to develop the human capital in the Egyptian students. This is through raising your level of academic knowledge, fostering your skills This is accompanied by spreading political awareness among the Egyptian youth, leaching your potentials, improving your confidence and participation in your society. Being that skilful and knowledgeable entails you not to practice what you have learned only, but also to teach whoever comes on our way and pass what you’ve learned to others….

So, honorable senators and Lobbies, here is your time now to be different; experience the real political life, empower yourself with all necessary skills, act and debate as if you are a real decision maker, benefit from your experience to the maximum and pass it to others, and above all “Don’t forget that you are doing this for yourself and your beloved country, Egypt! “

MAC 2011 High board,

MAC 2011 High board President: Nada Fayez President Pro-Tempore: Yasmeen Oraby

Head of the Organizing Committee: Ayman Mousa

Deputy-Head of the Organizing Committee: Nahla Assaad Index: 6

Cover……………………………………………………………..1 Preamble…………………………………………………………4 MAC 2011 High board………………………………………….5 Index……………………………………………………………..6 Rules of Procedure of MAC 2010……………………………....7 Committee on Foreign Relations………………………………16 Committee on Finance……………………………….................76 Committee on the Judiciary……………………………………127 Select Committee on Intelligence………………………………179 Committee on Near East and South Asian Affairs…………..222

Rules of Procedure Model American Congress 2011 United States Senate

A Decade of Ventures, Honoring our Virtues

Section I: Parliamentary Authority 8

-These rules shall be the official rules of the Model American Congress, - MAC Rules of order Revised, may be used for purposes of definition, but in cases of conflict, these by-laws shall take precedence, - No one may amend these by-laws except the members of the committee.

Section II: Senate members and officers First, the duties of the chairman/lady of each committee shall be: - T o declare the opening and closing of each committee meeting, - To recognize all the speakers, - To decide all points of order, - To put questions to a vote and announce the results, - To preserve order and decorum and to clear the floor of any disorderly persons.

Second, the duties of the Vice-Chair shall be: - To chair the committee during the chairman/lady absence or when the latter yields the floor to, - To read all bills and amendments, - To assist in counting of the votes, - To make sure that there is a quorum present at all times during which business is being transacted.

Third, the duties of the Ranking Member shall be:

- To advise the Chairman/lady in the decision of any parliamentary questions, - To Direct the Academic flow of the debate, - To act as source of all academic materials that needed by the senators during the congressional meetings. - To make sure that the committee bills are issued according to all technical and legal specifications.

Fourth, the duties of the Party Consultant shall be: - To arrange each and every party factions and wings, - To work on the formulation of the party statement, - To assist the Ranking Member in providing the Academic materials, - To act as source of party and senators stances.

Fifth, the duties of the Senators shall be: - To Work on the discussed committee topics, as well issuing a bill on the discussed topics to be taken to the senate floor, - To assist the Chairman/lady in maintaining order and decorum.

Sixth, the duties of the Lobbyists shall be: - To provide the senators with the academic materials and any technical or legal support, - To work on the discussed committee topics, - To lobby for or against the committee bills in the other committees and in the floor, - To assist the Chairman/lady in maintaining order and decorum.

NOTE: the Chairman/lady may vote when it is necessary to break a tie, to complete a 2/3 vote, to make a quorum, or in any case where his/her vote would change the results, at which time he may vote if he/she chooses.

Section III: Standing Committees

- The committee Chairman/lady shall assign the senators prior to the opining of the Model American Congress Conference, - There shall be one Chairman/lady and 20 senators for each committee, - The Committee on the Rules shall consist of the Model American Congress President, President Protempore and the Chairmen/ladies of the 5 Committees. Other senators may be arbitrarily admitted.

Section IV: Agenda and Order of Business - The Agenda of the Senate Floor and each of the standing committees shall be drawn up in advance of the opining of the respective sessions. - The Vice-chair shall see that each member of the chamber has received a copy of the agenda. - Bills no on the agenda may only be introduced by a motion to suspend the rules. - Bills passed in the committee should be forwarded to the Committee on Rules, Where they will be placed on the agenda of the Senate Floor. - In Committee, the sponsor of the bill may make any changes on his/her bill by arranging them with the Ranking Member before the markup session.

Section V: Rules of Order The following are some motions, which shall be used in Senate. If two motions are on the floor simultaneously, the higher numbered one shall take precedence..

ACCLAMATION

A bill may be passed by acclamation only before debate has begun. It requires a simple majority vote. "I'd like to move to an acclamation voting procedure on the presented bill".

OBJECT TO CONSIDERATION (only on the floor)

This motion, if passed, has the effect of canceling the effect of the bill. It is used only if the body feels that the bill being discussed is frivolous, irrelevant, not within the bodyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s jurisdiction, or clearly 11

unconstitutional. It must be done before debate on the bill has begun. It requires a 2/3 vote to pass “I object to consideration of this question, having…. "

TO DIVIDE A MOTION

If a delegate calls for a division of a motion, it means he/she wants the bill to be voted on separately from its amendments. 2/3 majority is required to divide a motion, it can be raise though in case we have an acclamation motion pre-discussing the bill. "I call for the division of the committee" (And its asked for a vote by actual count to verify a voice vote for the bill without amendments)

PREVIOUS QUESTION

This ends debate prematurely and brings the assembly to an immediate vote on the main motion. It requires a 2/3 vote to pass “I move the previous question, to…"

SUSPEND THE RULES This motion suspends the rules of the chamber involved for a definite purpose, for a specified time. It requires a 2/3 vote to pass. “I move we suspend the rules and consider the chairs authority"

POINT OF ORDER

If a breach of parliamentary procedure occurs, a senator may bring it to the attention of the chair. The punishment of the offender shall be at the discretion of the chair, as well it can be used to raise a motion for a caucus, mark up session or holding a congressional hearings and in that cas4e it always begins with “I move that….”. "I'd like to raise a motion to move to a… "Or “I appeal the chair’s decision" or “I move we postpone this meeting until"…. POINT OF PERSONAL PRIVLEGE

A delegate may rise to appoint of privilege if there is a question concerning the rights of a member or the entire assembly. It can call for the reading of pertinent Bill, the opening of a window … etc. "Point of personal privilege"

TO RECESS/ADJOURN

A senator may, at his/her discretion call for a recess/adjourn of any meeting. It requires a majority vote to pass. “I move that we recess until….” or “I move that we adjourn”

Note: All motions require a 2/3 majority to pass except the recess, adjourn & acclamation both requires a simple majority to pass. Only the point of personal privilege can be raised while a senator has a floor.

SECTION VI: Voting

- All voting on the main motion shall consist of a show of hands of the ayes and nays but this is done only if there is a marked uncertainty as to the result of the vote. No division shall be allowed if any new motion has been made since the vote has been taken. - The majority vote as well as the 2/3 vote shall consist of the number of senators present and voting. - All motions and points shall be out of order once the vote has begun. Abstentions shall not be counted where its only allowed in case of the amendments and the bill voting. - All motions require a 2/3 majority to pass except the recess, adjourn & acclamation both requires a simple majority to pass. - In case of having a miss-vote a re-voting procedure is taken by the chair, by which a voice vote for the motion is taken as in the case of the divided motion. - Abstentions aren't allowed in case of a motion vote

SECTION VII: Debate Flow The Congressional Committee meetings:

<chairman/lady> the Committee will come to order. We are meeting today to consider our congressional agenda the "….", the "….", and the "…." <Opening statements by chairman and RM>

<chairman/lady> "thanks to the gentleman or the gentle lady" pointing to the ranking member, a quorum(10) being present, the committee will now proceed the consideration of the declared agenda for that congressional meeting, and now the floor will be yield to the vice-chair to have the roll call, senators attending should reply as present <Chairman/lady> the honorable senator…of….. Is recognized for two minutes <chairman/lady>other members may submit opening statements comments for the record <chairman/lady>honorable senators wishing to speak should raise their placards high and keep them high…. <Chairman/lady> the honorable senator…of….. is recognized for two minutes <chairman/lady> "thanks to the gentleman or the gentle lady" and so on <Senator> point of order <chairman/lady> honorable….of……what's your point <senator>I'll move that we go to a hearing session for…minutes <chairman/lady> honorable senator that’s in order, the question is on agreeing to the motion offered by the gentleman. to…. Those in favor say "aye" <pause> those opposed say "no" <pause> (if only no or ayes are heard then the voting had a consensus result whether yes or no while in case of nays and ayes are heard then a raising hands motion takes place) <chairman/lady> In the opinion of the chair, the ayes [nays] have it and the motion is [is not] agreed to

The Mark Up Session:

<chairman/lady> the Committee will come to order. We are meeting today to consider S.111 the"…..bill title…..", a bill to….. <Clarifying stmt by the ranking member>

<chairman/lady>A quorum (10) being present, the committee will now proceed the consideration of S111 the "…..bill title….", I'll now call up the S111. The ranking member will report the bill. <RM begins to read the bill>

<Chairman/lady> (interrupt reading) the bill was circulated in advance. Without objection, the first reading of the bill is dispensed with. <if objection is heard, a senator or the RM should raise "move to dispense with the reading>

<chairman/lady> Are there any amendments to the present bill? <if any member called ayes> <chairman/lady> now the floor will be opened for 10 minutes for having amendments, the ranking member will record the amendments. <chairman/lady> the time for recording S111 amendments has elapsed, the honorable … of…….amendment calls for,………….. <After finishing reading the amendment if the member raised "reserve a point of order" at this time then he would be recognized for 1 minute> <chairman/lady> the gentleman/lady is recognized for 1minute in the support of the amendment <Member explains the amendment> <chairman/lady> the time of the gentleman/lady has expired, since there is no further discussion, the question is on agreeing to the amendment offered by the gentleman/lady. Those in favor say "aye"<pause>, those opposed say "no" <pause> (if only no or ayes are heard then the voting had a consensus result whether yes or no while in case of nays and ayes are heard then a raising hands motion takes place) <chairman/lady> In the opinion of the chair, the ayes [nays] have it and the amendment is [is not] agreed to. And so on the amendments are discussed & voted to………… <chairman/lady> hearing no further amendments, the question now occurs on the adoption of the bill as amended. All those in favor say "aye"<pause> all those opposed say "no"<pause> In the opinion of the chair, the Ayes have it and adoption of the bill as amended is agreed to. (if only no or ayes are heard then the voting had a consensus result whether yes or no while in case of nays and ayes are heard then a voice recorded voting takes place)

<Chairman/lady> I now move the bill as amended be forwarded favorably to the senate floor. All those in favor say "aye" <pause> all those opposed say "no" <pause> in the opinion of the chair, the Ayes have it and the motion is agreed to. <Possible request for a voice recorded vote> <Chairman> without objection, the motion is to reconsider is laid on the table, and staff is authorized to make any technical and conforming changes. There being no further business, without objection, the committee stands adjourned.

SECTION VIII: The Floor - The committee on rules will set the floor agenda a day before the floor - The floor of MAC will involve the 100 senator as speakers, while the secretariats and the lobbyists are not recognized. However, the lobbyists conduct their task informally. - The bills pass throughout the floor to the white house with a simple majority of 50+1 - All the committee rules & motions are in order in addition to putting the object to consideration.

The Filibuster:

- In recent practice, a unanimous consent agreement has sometimes included the provision that would require a 60-vote (Three-fifths of the present and voting senators) majority threshold to be met for amendments or legislations to be considered agreed to, rather than the ordinary simple majority required. These amendments may be of a controversial nature with the potential of causing a Filibuster, a 60-vote required majority.

 Honorable President/ President Pro-Tempore, I would like to move to a filibuster on the presented bill…. “In the opinion of the president, the filibuster is adopted on the presented bill...”

MAC committee on foreign relations Congressional research service report

Prepared by: Chair-man: Ahmed tarek Vice chair-lady: Noha Mohamed Ranking member: Mohamed Abd El salam Party consultant: Marina Tarek

COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS 2011 A decade of ventures… Honoring our virtues .

“Our problems are man-made, therefore they may be solved by man. No problem of human destiny is beyond human beings”. John f. Kennedy.

this is dediCAted to;

“The current and future generations…the revolutionary youth who will create the bright future of Egypt” With All the sinCerity And best Wishes,

Secretariats of the Committee on Foreign Relations

About the Committee on Foreign Relations:

Committee on Foreign Relations is considered one of the most important committees in the US Senate. The committee was created in 1816 and since then it played a significant role in important events that contributed for the creation the American political history and the American foreign policy like the purchase of Alaska, the establishment of UN … etc. The committee enjoys a broad extent of jurisdiction that covers vital issues like: foreign assistance and loans; diplomatic service; international law as relates to foreign policy; declaration of wars; maritime, environmental, and scientific affairs as relates to foreign policy; US foreign relations in general; international aspects of nuclear energy… and others. The committee is also divided into seven vital subcommittees due to the importance and complexity of the work in the committee. These subcommittees are: the subcommittee on 1)Western Hemisphere, Peace Corps and Global Narcotics Affairs; 2)Near Eastern and South and Central Asian Affairs; 3)African Affairs; 4) East Asian and Pacific Affairs; 5)International Operations and Organizations, Democracy, Human Rights, and Global Women’s Issues; 6)European Affairs; 7)International Development and Foreign Assistance, Economic Affairs, and International Environmental Protection. In Model American congress, committee on foreign relations is also considered as one of the most important and permanent committees in MAC since the launching of the model. Each and every year we discuss a lot of influential topics that is related to the US foreign policy, hence affecting the whole world.

Out line: First topic: American-pacific relations…pacifying the pacific. 20

North Korea -1     

North Korean regime. North Korean ballistic missile program. North Korean nuclear program. Chinese-north Korean relation. Russian-north Korean relations. .South Korea -2 .Japan -3

Second topic: Yemen...Torn under gears of war.     

Regime in Yemen. Secession of the south. Al hawthi rebellion in the north. Al Qaeda working in Yemen. American interference in Yemen.

Pacifying the Pacific In the 16

century, the Portuguese explorer Ferdinand Magellan during his expedition to circumnavigate the world, sailed through calm seas during the journey and called it “Tepre Pacificum” which is today’s Pacific Ocean. Many years after Magellan’s venture, the Pacific has witnessed many events which made it stormy. On one side of the Pacific we have the Americas and on the other we have Asia and Australia. North America has only three states United States of America, Canada and Mexico. America is the world’s largest economy with the most widespread military power which allows it to exercise a very influential role in the international decision making process. It has many interests especially on the other side of the pacific in Asia.

Asia is the most populous and the largest continent which hosts 60% of human population. It’s the home of some of the largest economies of the world as China, Japan, India, South Korea and many more which have been showing steady high growth rates during the last decades. Wealth and Power in Asia is mostly concentrated in highly industrialized East Asia and the oil rich Middle East. In the recent years, East Asia has become one of the most energetic areas in the world. In the late decades of the 20th century, Japan was seen as the economic rival and even threat to America. Today, china has moved forward to take the honor to be not only an economic rival but a political and military one as well. East Asia has always been a theatre to many wars, when the Japanese Empire attacked to control East Asia. After that it witnessed one of the longest struggles ever when the Korean Peninsula was divided after WWII and the North tried to reunify the fatherland. During this struggle America and China were fighting face to face and thousands were killed on both sides. Today, after almost sixty years, the situation isn’t stabilized yet and seems to have taken the direction of deterioration. The Korean problem is one that must be dealt with in dexterity as it has so many critical elements each of them is capable of escalating the international situation. North and South Korea are the frontlines on both sides then we have many major powers, America, China, Japan and Russia, closely watching and always ready to react. This situation is likely to be one of America’s toughest challenges both on the short and long terms. In order to have a full idea about the situation across the pacific and to foresee the path the American policy makers are most likely to follow, we have to start decoding the economic, military and political positions of each player.

North Korea…Stubbornness in its worst. With the surrender of Japan in 1945 after firmly controlling the peninsula since 1910, Korea was divided into two parts; one in the north and the other in the south with line 38 parallel separating them. After a 5 year trusteeship was submitted to the UN Security Council by the United States, a decision in 1948 was taken that stated the establishment of two separate Koreas as a temporary resolution. The decision was largely influenced by the changing international conditions accompanied by the beginning of the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union. Thus, with the establishment of the two separate governments, the United States supported The Republic of the Korea (R.O.K) in the south and the Soviet Union supported the Democratic People Republic of Korea (D.P.R.K) in the North ruled by the Kim ll sung. Right after this, in 1950 North Korea invaded South Korea after a massive surprise attack launched by North Korea due to the eruption of border disputes and naval battles between both nations. China took the side of North Korea and sent hundreds of thousands of volunteers for the assistance of NK in the war while the US supported the south by sending troops that constituted most of the UN troops fighting along with other nation’s troops and aids sent to the battle field in the region. In 1953, an armistice agreement was reached by China and North Korea to which South Korea and the United Sates submitted to, though not signing it and till now no comprehensive peace agreement between the two nations has come to the light.

Today, anyone can’t help but to notice that North Korea has almost frozen itself in its 1950s situation. It still is the same regime with the same problems and the same drawbacks. Only one major thing has changed which is that North Korea has gone nuclear. This added to the problems and escalated the situation in the Korean peninsula. In order to defuse the crises that keep showing on the Korean theatre, the world is engaged in extensive negotiations with North Korea. Many cards are being played with. On one side we have a heavily suffering North Korean economy which makes any economic incentives extremely tempting to the worried regime. On the other side we have a heavily militarized state and a growing nuclear threat which gives North Korea a very influential leverage in negotiations.

North Korean Regime North Korea is one of last states that are described as being communist regime oriented. It’s a central state, strictly ruled by one man; Kim Jung Il. No signs of democracy have appeared during Kim’s rule and they still are not likely to appear after his death as Kim has started preparing his son for succession. Kim, by doing so, has suppressed international and American calls for reforming and improving the regime in North Korea. Among 167 countries being assessed for their democratic status, The Economist lists North Korea as the least democratic state and its regime the most authoritarian regime in the world. The regime is maintaining total control over the country aided by its ideologies of “Juche” which means complete self-reliance and “Songun Chongch'I” which means “Military First” which means directing almost all of the state’s economic and political resources towards the military. The self-reliance policy is stated in the North Korean constitution and it helps the regime to cut all the links between the inside and the outside of North Korea except for the ones that have the government’s approval. The “Military-First” policy helps the regime to consolidate its power giving the government huge authorities under the pretext of defending the country from imperialistic attacks. This also helps Kim Jung Il maintain his power despite the multiple crises that surround him. When his father died, Kim was the second in military command, so strengthening the army meant strengthening his position after his father’s death. It also would mean strengthening his son’s position who acquired the title of “Four star General” recently. This has added to the heavy economic burdens the North Korean people have to endure, pushing the economy towards a worse situation and depriving the people from many resources. Nonetheless, some argue that focusing on the army would move the country from the radical socialist measures towards some reforms inorder to have a prosperous economy capable of supporting the army. 1

North Korean Military 1

North Korea’s Military-First Policy: A Curse or a Blessing?” Alexander V. Vorontsov, The Brookings Institution.

North Korea is a heavily militarized state with the fourth largest population under arms, after China, the United States, and India. The North Korean armed forces, known as the Korean People’s Army (KPA), totaled about 1,170,000 personnel in 2006. The active military structure is supported by a 7.7 million-strong reserve component. There also are paramilitary security troops, including border guards and public safety personnel, who number around 189,000. The armed forces are under the direction and control of Kim Jong-Il, with the title of grand marshal, general secretary of the Korean Workers’ Party (KWP), and chairman of the state National Defense Commission. 2 What adds to the North Korean Army’s capabilities is its possession of both Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) and their delivery systems. WMD include chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. North Korea posses an arsenal of WMD especially Nuclear WMD and is also reported to have an arsenal of chemical weapons. North Korea has also advanced a relatively strong delivery vehicle. A delivery vehicle is a way by which the WMD is delivered to its target. It includes Strategic Bombers, Land-based missiles as well as Submarine Launched Ballistic missiles, which are collectively called “Nuclear Triad”. North Korea has developed its Ballistic missile program and is reported to be developing a submarine launched Ballistic missile. Combining the WMD with their delivery vehicles possessed by North Korea would give a grieve sum that would render North Korea a critical threat. This also has its setbacks as maintaining such programs, especially in a poor country like North Korea, imposes many strains on the already failing economy. The North Korean government announced that the military expenditure for fiscal year 2003 was US$1.7 billion, or about 15.7 percent of the total government budget. However, the South Korean government believed that the figure supporting defense in 2003 was more likely around an estimated US$5 billion, representing 27.2 percent of the gross national income and 44.4 percent of the total government budget which means that almost half of the budget was being directed to the military and very few to economic and social development. 3

North Korean Ballistic missile program For North Korea, a ballistic missile isn’t just a weapon but it’s a source of national pride, one of the main pillars of its national security ideology and a political card. The North Korean trials to acquire a ballistic missile technology date back to the 1960s. Briefly after the start of the cold war, North Korea found many reasons to seek ballistic missile technology. The Korean War was the triggering factor for the North Korean desires. The Korean War raised many questions on the tables of the North Korean 2 library of Congress – Federal Research Division Country Profile: North Korea, July 2007. 3 library of Congress – Federal Research Division Country Profile: North Korea, July 2007.

politicians. The first was the degree of the Soviet, as their main ally, commitment to the North Korean cause. The North Korean army started the war with the soviet weapons and tanks but briefly after almost seizing the whole Korean peninsula the American-led forces interfered. This led to the North Korean defeat which was attributed to the lack of assistance of the soviet leadership and army who refused to be drawn into a direct confrontation with the American superpower. This was aggravated by the way the soviets reacted in the Cuban missile crisis in 1962, when they withdrew their missiles from Cuba under American threats of nuclear war and left Cuba, their ally, to face the American embargo. 4 This left the North Korean leadership suspicious of the soviet commitment and looking for a way to be self-dependent in its defense and security. Consequently, the next question was the search for a method, most preferably a military one, to deter or defeat the American interventions in any potential military actions in the Korean peninsula. The ballistic missiles presented themselves as the most practical and available way to reach this goal. A ballistic missile, even loaded with conventional explosive warhead, would cause very serious damages to its targets. This would deter the American troops deployed in South Korea giving the North Korean forces the chance to seize and reunify the Korean peninsula. Besides, a ballistic missile capable of reaching Japanese lands, America’s no.1 ally in the region with 47,000 deployed American soldiers, would force Japan to press USA NOT to use Japanese-based American military bases in any aggressive actions against North Korea for the fear of a North Korean retaliatory ballistic attacks. The ultimate goal would be a ballistic missile with intercontinental range capable of reaching the American mainland. Provided the North Korean substantial arsenal of WMD “Chemical, Biologic and Nuclear”, a ballistic missile armed with such a warhead would prove to be very influential in deterring any potential American aggressions. 5 In 1966 the North Korean leadership took the political decision of acquiring ballistic missiles. First, they made researches on their regular missiles as the surface to Air missiles “SAM” inorder to develop variants with a longer range and offensive capabilities. After that the North Korean trials were based on the designs of Soviet ballistic missiles mainly Scud missiles. The North Koreans practiced reverse engineering, which means dismantling an already working missile to figure out the way it works then try to build it again. They did so, on the soviet ballistic missiles, and made many researches on them until their engineers became accustomed with the design and started to make ones of their own and even a modified versions of longer range and heavier load. It is believed that the soviets refused to give the North Koreans any ballistic missiles but it was the Egyptians who gave the North Koreans their first Scud missiles in gratitude for North Korea sending air force pilots to help Egypt during the 1973 war. This reverse engineering proved to be beneficial as it allowed them to develop ballistic missiles without testing them as the missiles were already proven to work. It also allowed them to develop the missiles in a relatively short period. This resulted in their early short range ballistic missile Hwasŏng-5 (Scud B of 320 KM range) and Hwasŏng-6 (Scud C of 500 KM range).6

4 “The North Korean Ballistic Missile Program” Daniel A. Pinkston, 2008. 5 “Special Report on North Korean Ballistic Missile Capabilities” Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies March 22, 2006.

The next step was the Intermediate range ballistic missiles as they started to develop their Nodong missile in the late 1980s. This missile is of a calculated range of 1000 Km with the capability to carry chemical, Biological or Nuclear warheads which is a remarkable advance. This research was boosted with the travel of many Russian missile scientists to North Korea after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia arrested many of these scientists but others were able to go to North Korea through Europe. This boost to their research efforts lead to the existence of Taepodong-1 and Taepodong-2 missiles. Taepodong-2 is of 400080007 Km range which makes it North Koreaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s first Intercontinental Ballistic Missile. The latest to date North Korean Ballistic launch was on April the 5th 2009, when North Korea launched a variant of Taepodong-2 missile which was claimed to be carrying a satellite. It flew over Japan and fell into the Pacific Ocean. Moreover, the North Korean army is developing sea-based ballistic missiles of 2500 km range that would be launched from submarines or ship-mounted which if proven to be true would be very dangerous as a submarine would carry it and sneak to the American coast and fire it with a very short time notice before the firing process. 8

6 http://nti.org/e_research/profiles/NK/Missile/index.html 7h ttp://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/dprk/missile/ 8 North Korean Ballistic missile Threat To the United states, Steven A. Hildreth, 2009.

North Korea has developed a system that makes it self-sufficient throughout most of the stages of ballistic missile development and manufacture. However, they do lack critical ingredients especially in the guidance systems. They mainly import these high technology items from abroad, mainly Japan via their abroad based firms that have no clear link to the North Korean regime. Since tightening the sanctions, the North Korean capabilities to purchase the needed items have declined but the international community still has a long way to completely stop such dealings. 9 Accordingly, The North Korean ballistic missiles have expanded their reach. The whole South Korean and Japanese territories are within reach including the American military bases in both of them. The American mainland is also claimed to be threatened. If the Taepodong-2 missile operates as supposed it might be able to reach Alaska, Hawaii and the American west coast cities which poses a catastrophic threat to the American national security.

Target Range KM

Washington DC 10,700

Chicago 10,000

San Francisco 8,600

Seattle 7,900

Alaska 5,600

Hawaii 7,100

Ranges required for a ballistic missile to hit a target from North Korea.

The North Koreans are trying to secure their ballistic missile locations as much as possible in order to save them any damage from potential airstrike or preemptive actions. Most of the manufacturing, storing and launching locations are present underground and in secret locations with no accurate details which would make it very hard to eliminate them in any attack. Besides, some ballistic missiles are launched from mobile launchers which make it easy to be moved and hidden. 10

North Korean Nuclear Program The North Korean nuclear program is a highly critical element in North Korea’s foreign policy. It’s always used as a pressure card by Korean politicians in almost each and every single round of negotiations. In the mid 1960s North Korea acquired its first nuclear research center by the help of the Soviet Union. This research center was intended for peaceful purposes with no military intentions. After that North Korea started to train many specialists from students who studied in the Soviet Union and started slow-paced efforts to independently develop its military nuclear program. In 1985, US intelligence 9 “The North Korean Ballistic Missile Program”

Daniel A. Pinkston, 2008.

10 “North Korean Crisis: Possible Military Options”,

Edward F. Bruner.

announced that it had evidence that North Korea was building a secret Nuclear reactor in Yongbyon city, one that was capable of producing weapons grade nuclear material. This meant that North Korea was on its way towards developing nuclear weapons and the decision has been made. 11 North Korea had many reasons to develop nuclear weapons. First, the North Korean leaders felt a deep distrust towards the Soviet Union as mentioned before. This led them to seek ways that would independently assure their security. America was in South Korea and Japan with many troops and frank aggressive intentions towards the North Korean regime. Since the Korean War there has been an American embargo against North Korea and in January 1958 US deployed nuclear warheads in South Korea which amounted to 950 warheads in 1967. Besides, the North Koreans have domestic reasons for their nuclear program. It might be a mean to influence both the public opinion as well as the radical military leaders in the North Korean army. Furthermore, by the 1980s it was clear that the soviet power was declining and its security guarantees were even more neglected. It became evident that the cold war was about to come to an end and that America was the strong side, so North Korea needed some more pressure cards as it believed that negotiations with America were inevitable. Since then, North Korea has been steadily calling for bilateral and direct talks with the American government which America constantly refuses to do. Their fears were also heightened by the strong alliance of South Korea-Japan and United States of America after South Korea and Japan resumed their diplomatic relation in 1965. 12 Throughout this period, the international pressure was high on North Korea to join the NonProliferation treaty “NPT”. After Soviet and Chinese pressure, North Korea joined the treaty in 1985 but it refused to sign the annexes that included allowing the International Atomic Energy Agency “IAEA” to inspect the North Korean nuclear sites. In 1992, North Korea also agreed to a bilateral agreement with South Korea to denuclearize the Korean peninsula after the Americans withdrew their nuclear warheads in 1991. North Korea continued its undercover nuclear activities and used them in their political negotiations. In 1993, North Korea threatened that it would withdraw from the NPT, as the NPT requires a 3 month (90 days) notice before any country can withdraw. President Clinton tried to react but under pressure from the republican led congress he refrained from direct negotiations and appointed Robert Gallucci to start a new round of negotiations. After 89 days, North Korea suspended its withdrawal from the NPT and in 1994 an Agreed Framework was reached. 13 According the Agreed framework, North Korea would freeze all its nuclear activities, halt its nuclear infrastructure development and allow IAEA inspections. In exchange, America would create a diplomatic representation with North Korea, start easing its embargo and sanctions over North Korea and compensate it with annual 500,000 tons of free heavy oil as source of energy. Moreover, USA would form an international consortium to fund two Light Water Reactors to produce energy for North Korea. Light 11 http://terrorism.about.com/od/usforeignpolicy/a/NorthKorea.htm 12 “North Korea’s Nuclear Test: Motivations, Implications and U.S. Options”,

Emma Chanlett-Avery and Sharon Squassoni.

13 http://history.searchbeat.com/north-korea-nuclear-weapons-program.htm

Water Reactors are much harder to produce weapon grade material and require technology that isn’t available for North Korea. In 1995 the consortium was established and was called Korean Peninsula Development Organization “KEDO” which included the governments of United States, Japan, South Korea and the European Union. The cost of the 2 LWR was estimated to be 4.6-6.0 billion dollars. South Korea and Japan agreed to fund most of its costs. Many difficulties faced the implementation of the Agreed Framework. The North Koreans were reluctant to fulfill their obligations and classified reports about secret activities continued. Besides, the actions lead to the delay of construction of the 2 LWR and many financing difficulties were faced after Japan withdrew from financing KEDO after a North Korean ballistic missile test in 1998 and eventually the Bush administration stopped the oil shipments in late 2002 and in January 2003 North Korea reacted by withdrawing from the NPT and then from the denuclearizing agreement with the south. 14 The American government lead by Bush continued the American policy of refusing direct bilateral negotiations with North Korea and his vice president Cheney said “we don’t negotiate with evil, we defeat evil” talking about North Korea after Bush described it as an “axis of evil” country. As a result in 2003, the “six-party talks” were initiated by North Korea, China, Russia, South Korea, Japan and United States. Many rounds of talks continued and it was evident that what North Korea was really negotiating for was a Non-Aggression pact where America obliges itself not to attack North Korea and this would ease North Korean fears. In 2003 at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the ex-President Bill Clinton urged Bush to sign a non-aggression pact with North Korea inorder to encourage them to dismantle their nuclear program. In 2005, in what was said to be the most important constructive act, North Korea announced in a joint statement that it was going to give up all its nuclear weapons and halt all its nuclear activities. In exchange America stated that it had no intentions of attacking North Korea. However, the very next day North Korea announced that it wouldn’t dismantle its nuclear program until it was compensated with a civilian nuclear reactor which took everybody again to square zero. In 2006, The North Korean efforts culminated in their first nuclear test, which was after almost a month of North Korea’s largest Ballistic missile test, and it was confirmed by the different intelligence agencies. North Korea stated that its nuclear weapons were for deterrence and would be used against America if America attacked North Korea. This caused a widespread rage and different international responses. America secured the unanimous passage of a United Nations Security council “UNSC” resolution 1718 which described the nuclear test as an action that is “a clear threat to international peace and security.” The resolution also imposed new sanctions on North Korea and authorized the inspection of goods to and from North Korea. Japan also imposed unilateral sanctions against North Korea. China, as well as Russia, supported the UNSC resolution but insisted on totally out ruling any military options. South Korea, afraid of any retaliatory North Korean attacks in case of American provocations, condemned the test and supported the resolution but continued its economic support to the North. North Korea described the UNSC resolution as an action of war. 15 14 “strategic Implications Of The U.S.-DPRK Framework Agreement”, Thomas L. Wilborn. 15 “North Korea’s Nuclear Test: Motivations, Implications and U.S. Options”,

Emma Chanlett-Avery and Sharon Squassoni.

Following the nuclear test, North Korea was involved in many rounds of negotiations via the sixparty talks which culminated in a number of agreements in 2007 and 2008. According to these agreements North Korea was to disable its nuclear facility in Yongbyon and to provide complete and correct information about its nuclear program and weapons. North Korea was also to allow the inspection of its nuclear sites by inspectors from the other five states taking part in the six-party talks. In Exchange the Bush administration was to remove North Korea from the “Trade with the enemy” act and from the “States Sponsor of Terrorism” list. This would allow American companies to invest in and import goods from North Korea. According to the agreements, the South Korean and the Japanese governments were to provide North Korea with one million tons of heavy oil annually. In August 2008, the North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il had a stroke which was suggested to affect him greatly. After that suspicions were raised about his ability to rule and about his influence and ability to control the country. After the stroke the military institution of North Korea started to take a greater role in leading the Korean state. The American and the South Korean officials found themselves negotiating with North Korean military generals instead of the civilian officials for the first time, this included all matters even the economic ones. In April 2009, North Korea withdrew from the six-party talks protesting a UNSC resolution condemning a North Korean ballistic missile launch. Under these circumstances came the second North Korean nuclear test in May 2009. It faced even more condemnation than the first one and the United Nations Security Council issued a new resolution 1874 which imposed more strict sanctions against North Korea. This resolution gave more strict guidelines to inspect shipments to and from North Korea inorder to ban all arms exports from North Korea and most of its arms imports. 16 In November 2010, North Korea allowed a much acknowledged American scientist to visit its nuclear sites. The American scientist stated that he was allowed to visit a new site where Uranium was being enriched similar to those used in Iran. The American scientist said that it was a giant site and was run by “Ultra Modern control room”. The North Koreans claimed that the site was to produce electricity. This is the first time North Korea is to be reported to be using Uranium as its previous nuclear weapons were based on Plutonium. Uranium has the ability to increase the destructive power of the nuclear bomb which makes it much more extremely dangerous. This facility didn’t exist in April, 2009 when the last inspectors were thrown out of North Korea which means that North Korea probably got foreign help to help such a sophisticated facility in a very short period. 17 Also in February 2011 many reports surfaced indicating that North Korea was preparing for its third nuclear test. North Korea is building tunnels that are used in underground nuclear tests. This may be a way to test its new Uranium-based nuclear bombs. 18

16 “North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Development and Diplomacy”,

Larry A. Niksch.

17 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/21/world/asia/21intel.html?_r=1&ref=security_council 18 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/8336653/North-Korea-preparing-nuclear-test.html

Implications of North Korean Military capabilities The North Korean military capabilities pose many grave threats to both the American and the International security. North Korea now stands in a place where it is the fourth largest military power in terms of number of personnel as well as a nuclear state with its nuclear arsenal estimated of about 2-10 nuclear warheads and a ballistic missile arsenal including moderate and long intercontinental range missiles. Add to this the continuous provocations of the North Korean regime to its neighbors; we get a highly volatile situation.



Prospects of Arms Race in Asia: throughout the last century, Asia has been the stage for many wars raging from farthest western of the continent with the ArabIsraeli wars till the farthest eastern point with the Japanese wars seeking dominance over the continent. In the middle there were plenty of problems with the Russian-Chinese border problems and then the Indo-Pakistani struggle. This left Asia with a very suspicious mind and way of thinking. This is the most populous continent and the most troublesome one. This hasn’t changed, yet. The North Korean military including both its Ballistic missile as well as nuclear programs are obviously directed towards their South Korean and Japanese neighbors. Every once and while we read North Korean threats to attack, even preemptively, the American military bases in South Korea and Japan and many times adding civilian targets as Seoul and Tokyo. Such an action would push both South Korea and Japan towards remilitarization. In post-cold war period between 1989and 1994, South Korea increased its military spending by 19%. In the period between 2001 and 2006, it increased its military spending by 20%. Concerning Japan, in September 2006, even before the North Korean First nuclear test, the Japanese former prime minister announced that maybe it was time for Japan to “Go Nuclear” given the presence of many nuclear states in the region. After the American secretary of state reiterated America’s commitment to defend Japan, the Japanese prime minister stated that Japan had no intentions of developing Nuclear weapons. Japan already has an already existing stock of plutonium that would be easily and quickly converted into a weapons grade material once a political decision is taken. Japan

also has recently formed an intelligence agency directed against North Korea and 19 china which has caused more suspicions to arise Such a possibility makes all of the Asian nations, including South Korea and China, very suspicious as they have a very bad history with Imperialistic Japan, when it invaded almost all of Asia and committed many mass crimes everywhere. Such a trend would intimidate other Asian countries to increase the pace of their military development. Besides, observing North Korea cross the nuclear line with no serious punishment would encourage other states to develop their own nuclear arsenal and each nation has its own conditions and reasons that 21 20 .would make nuclear acquisition justifiable in their own eyes



North Korean military attacks: North Korea has both the nuclear warheads and the means of their delivery to their targets. This poses a direct threat both to America and its allies. America has many troops in the region including about 50,000 in Japan and about 35,000 in South Korea. These troops are within the reach of the North Korean verified missiles. Even without their equipping by nuclear warheads, an attack with the North Korean missiles would lead to great losses to the American troops in the region. Moreover, North Korea is now suggested to have ballistic missile capable of reaching Alaska, Hawaii and the American west coast which is a great threat to America. However, some argue that the North Korean Ballistic and nuclear programs are designed for strengthening the position of the regime among the North Koreans, to acquire international prestige and to act as deterrence in order to prevent any attacks against North Korea. In that case, North Korea would only use its ballistic and nuclear weapons when it’s on the verge of a complete military defeat. 22

19“ North Korea’s Nuclear Test: Motivations, Implications and U.S. Options”, Emma Chanlett-Avery and Sharon Squassoni. 20 “Arming the Pacific Rim: Explaining Asian Arms Sales Patterns after the Cold War”David S. Sorenson, US Air War College. 21 “South Korea, Japan Militarization Seen Strengthening Russia-China Ties,” Lev Makedonov and Aleksandr Artemyev Gazeta.ru, July 22, 2009. 22 “N. Korea Threatens Pre-emptive Strike Against the U.S.,” USA Today, March 22, 2006.



Ballistic missile technology proliferation: North Korea is one of the poorest and most isolated countries in the world and is suffering many economic sanctions and a strong American embargo. In such a state, North Korea would do anything inorder to get some cash. North Korea would be a source for the spread of ballistic missile technology as well as nuclear technology. In part to get foreign currency and boost its stagnant economy, in another part to recoup part of its investment in military development. We also can’t forget that the North Korean Ballistic missile program itself is a stark example of proliferation. North Korea’s missile program is widely believed to be dependent in its origins on acquiring Scud missiles from Egypt. After North Korea succeeded in producing its own scud missile “Hawsong-5” it shipped several missiles to Egypt as well as transferring its experience to Egypt, helping the Egyptians make their own missiles which are reported to be capable of reaching all Israel and parts of Syria.23 North Korea has also been involved with Iran in missile technology development. During its war with Iraq, Iran searched for a supplier of missiles and North Korea with the perfect option. Iran agreed to finance North Korea’s missile research and even test them in its war with Iraq and give the results to North Korea which would help them undergo further developments. Iran bought many North Korean missiles in purchases some of which amounted to 500 million dollars. North Korea then helped Iran produce its own versions “Shahab” which Iran then sold to Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The list also includes Syria and Libya before its abandonment of its missile and Weapons of Mass Destruction programs. 24



Nuclear Proliferation: in 2008, the bush administration shocked the world with an announcement that in 2007 Israel bombed and destroyed a Syrian nuclear reactor. Then reports surfaced further explaining that the Syrian reactor was built by North Korean assistance and that it would have produced fuel rods that could be used in making nuclear weapons. To confirm this, the American administration gave much evidence including the resemblance between the Syrian and the North Korean reactors. Some reports even stated that 10 North Korean nuclear scientists were in the reactor and were killed by the Israeli raid. Other reports also stated

23 “Special Report on North Korean Ballistic Missile Capabilities” Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies March 22, 2006. 24 “Ballistic Missiles: Who are the future suppliers?” Gary Milhollin.

that North Korea was sharing with Iran information about its nuclear test in 2006, which would help Iran undergo its nuclear test whenever it decides to. 25 26 Such reports are of grieve threat, as they mean that North Korea is willing to share its nuclear experience and capabilities. This would threaten the American interests even more than the North Korean program itself. Such reports further conclude that North Korea might be able to sell nuclear weapons to terrorist groups if these terrorist groups can afford the price. However, it’s unlikely to happen because these nuclear weapons, if used in any terrorist attack, could be traced to its source being North Korea in this case. This would place North Korea in a direct military confrontation with the American retaliatory options. 27

Economy of North Korea North Korean Economy is one of the latest and most centrally planned economies and the government is almost the sole producer. It has recorded some of the weakest growth rates in the past years which were attributed to many reasons. First, most of the state’s resources are directed towards military expenditure under the “Military-First” ideology. This has deprived the state from many resources which could have been used to boost the economy. The second is the tightly sealed market and the radical central planning which deprives the country from a severely needed investment which would have flown into the market if it the market was open for private investment which would attract foreign investment as North Korean workers work for minimum wages less than those in other countries like China and Indonesia. Besides, the North Korean industrial base is ailing and hasn’t been modernized for decades. All this contributed to the stagnation of the North Korean economy which culminated in many crises. North Korea began experiencing food shortages and humanitarian problems after the cutoff of the economic aid that was given to it by the communist Soviet Union right before the collapse of the USSR in 1991. Coupled with disastrous floods and severe famines in 1995 that led to the death of about 5 -10% of North Korea population. This forced North Korea to be heavily dependent on foreign aid which was supposed to alleviate the humanitarian situation. Both china and South Korea equally share the burden of allocating these aids which are in the form of food, fuel and fertilizers. There are also some other major

25 “N. Koreans may have died in Israel raid in Syria—NHK,” Reuters, April 28, 2008. 26 “UK press: North Korea aids Iran in nuclear testing,” Dow Jones International News, January 24, 2007. 27 “Deterring state sponsorship of nuclear terrorism” Michael A. Levi, Council on foreign Relations.

international donors including America. Nonetheless, there are many obstacles that are between this aid and its intended recipient. 28 On one hand we have the donor countries which constantly use this aid as leverage in their political negotiations with North Korea about its military and nuclear programs. On the other hand we have the North Korean government which constantly insists that this aid is to be channeled through the government which would redistribute them among the people. Some argue that the main reason behind this inefficiency in using the aid is the gross government negligence and ill management of resources and massive corruption of the government officials who take over the economic and humanitarian aids transforming them to private accounts at their banks or favors the ruling elite and the military for the supply of food and its distribution. Also, Koreans working for foreign entities are subjected to harsh conditions and huge deductions from their salaries by the government officials.

Human Rights North Korea is having one of the worst human rights records in the world. Korean people are suffering from severe deprivation of humanitarian, economic and civil rights, freedom of expression and lawless imprisonment. North Korea prohibits all kinds of freedom of expression, freedom of speech, assembly or association. There is no room for criticizing the government, the ruler, the policies or the bad conditions in country. No real opposition is allowed despite the presence of multiple parties but these parties are just names, they submit to the government and their presence is required for the regime to gain legitimacy. Also, there is no access for information. Websites are blocked and even listening to foreign radio channels subjects the doer to imprisonment and abuse. This makes the process of obtaining any news about North Korea very difficult and creates a vague image of what happens inside North Korea which is what the regime wants. Thatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s why the main source for information about North Korea is the North Korean regime itself which doesnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t allow the passage of any information, to either the domestic or the international audience, without being manipulated and censored by the government institutions. One more thing is the imprisonment of those who are deemed to be politically unreliable by the government. Those political prisoners are taken to camps along with their families and close ones without trials or conviction and are held as prisoners for the rest of their lives under inhuman measures. The prisoners are imprisoned in camps where they are completely isolated from the world. The number of prisoners is estimated to be ranging from 150,000 to 200,000 with no accurate data. The political prisoners are forced to do slave work in mining and agriculture with minimal food supplies which leads to the death of many of them. If any of the prisoners attempt to steal food or to escape, he is publicly executed. 29

28 https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/kn.html

Refugees’ problem It is undisputable that conditions in NK have become miserable ranging from the horrific economic and humanitarian conditions, famines, denied human rights coupled with government corruption, suppression and isolation from the whole world. The world international organizations are giving close attention to the Human rights in North Korea and for that they grant North Korea massive amounts of food and humanitarian aid and freedom of expression reform assistance along with other grants by major countries which United States is one of them. Though China and South Korea admit the need for human rights reform, they constantly pressure the US not to correlate this topic as a condition for the resume of the six party talks believing that raising North Korea’s human rights violations jeopardizes the progress of the nuclear disarmament negotiations as Bush administration has always persisted upon raising this profile as a condition for the six party talks. These conditions resulted in the massive outflow of North Korean refugees crossing in considerable numbers to China, South Korea and the US searching for economic opportunities, away from the grudging poverty or political suppression in their homeland. The refugees outflow to the neighboring countries has a lot of consequences. First, this outflow disrupts the demography of the recipient country and draws the question of whether these locations are of North Korea or the recipient country concerning border disputes. Second, this outflow undermines the economic development and the Job opportunities for local citizens created by these countries. This is exactly what has been happening with the flow of 10000 refugees to China and South Korea (department of state claims they are between 30000-50000 refugees) and some NGO’s claim that they range from 150000-300000. China and South Korea fear that a disastrous natural phenomena or the collapse of the regime in NK will imply the outflow of more thousands or even millions of refugees to their lands. Though these consequences, an option of sending these refugees back to North Korea is impossible as they will be facing imprisonment, torturing, and brutal abuses and may be public executions by the NK government. An alternative solution to the problem is preventing the collapse of the system of North Korea through economic and humanitarian aids to halt theses massive outflows, an approach adopted by China and South Korea opposed by the American administration which hopes for the collapse of such authoritarian regimes. Although refugees constitute a severe problem in China and South Korea, for US they are very beneficial. In fact, these refugees help the US in gaining access to the social, economic, humanitarian and political conditions in North Korea. The refugees and escapees reports give insight over very valuable military and political information. Some defectors gave America it’s most accurate information about the internal structure of the North Korean regime, the North Korean military tactics as well as its military equipment and new weapons. Resettlement of North Korean refugees (64 in 2008) calling for asylum is welcomed by the US that easily grants them the citizenship, training and assistance. US is also admitting that the settlement of North Korean refugees in South Korea is the most appropriate settlement for them, 29 “Escape tells of Horrors in North Korean prison camp.” Blaine Harden, the Washington Post, 11th Dec., 2008.

but some claims that obstacles may hinder these settlements citing the difficulty in completing these refugees security checks and making sure of their good intentions.

Chinese-North Korean relations China holds a very eminent position in the North Korean issue. China is North Korea’s largest trade partner, most influential political supporter and its main source of food, fuel and arms. China is the source of 90% of North Korea’s energy imports and 45% of food. China is also a regional power as well as a potential international power being involved along with America in almost every single international point of concern. China is the host of the six-party talks and the only country with the ability to undertake effective punitive actions against North Korea. The Chinese North Korean relation has many reasons to be a strong one. Early in the 1950s, both regimes shared their Leninist-socialist ideologies. In the Korean War China rushed with full support to aid North Korea against the American-led United Nations troops that went to defend South Korea. After the end of the war the Chinese-North Korean co-operation culminated in the Treaty of Friendship Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, which committed each party to helping the other whenever attacked. Besides sharing the same ideology, China had more reasons to consolidate its alliance with North Korea which can be explained by way China interpreted the problem of Taiwan. China sees North and South Korea as a living example of China and Taiwan; each is a single country while under the influence of international players is forced to be separated with different authorities and regimes. 30 Today, after China started to evolve into a more powerful and more influential regional and international power, its dealing with North Korea evolved as well. North Korea started to represent more interests to China. North Korea acts as a buffer zone between china and South Korea, America’s big ally in the region. The overtaking of North Korea by the South under any circumstances would mean the presence of a democratic, nuclear state that is backed by the west at the 800 Km long Chinese-Korean border. Besides, any more deterioration in North Korean status that would lead to famine as what happened in the 1990s would cause many refugees to flee to china. This would impose a considerable leverage on the Chinese economy and would disrupt its social and domestic conditions. China also is gaining international prestige being able to support and secure its ally so far and at the same time the Korean nuclear and missile activities are undermining the American credibility in the region. 31 Therefore, the Chinese policy towards North Korea is widely believed to be assuring stability and keeping things in North Korea the way they are. That’s why we see China supporting sanctions against North Korea in the UNSC after its nuclear tests and in the same time opposing any mention of any military actions and continuing its economic aid. However, recently the Chinese North Korean relation 30 “China and North Korea: From Comrades-in-arms to Allies at Arm’s Length,” Scobell, Andrew, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, March 2004. 31 http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/north-east-asia/north-korea/112-china-and-north-korea-comrades-forever.aspx

started to face some disagreements after the North Korean repeated provocations that stirred many condemnations. One critical element is that China is wary of Taiwan “Going Nuclear” if it sees North Korea go unpunished which would threaten China’s policy towards reunification with Taiwan. This also can explain why china has publicly approved the North Korean succession plans. If Kim Jong-un, the son, rules North Korea this would mean the continuation of socialism and stability in North Korea which is good news for china.32 The outcome of any current or future American or international sanctions against North Korea greatly depends on the Chinese willingness to join the effort. Any sanctions will be meaningless if china continues its assistance to North Korea. Still, the North Korean issue isn’t the only one on the table of discussions between America and china. It might be an important one but it also might not be the most important one. China is now the second largest economy in the world, together with the United States; they import more than 50% of the international energy imports and emit about 30% of the green house emissions. In order for the American efforts to deal with the economic crisis to succeed, china must cooperate. China has $268 billion surplus in its trade with America as well as holding about $800 billion in treasury securities. There are many issues where America needs Chinese cooperation such as Iran, Global warming, Currency exchange rates, Cyber security and of course North Korea. This overlap of issues governs America’s dealing with China. 33

Russian-North Korean relations The Russian-North Korean relations are of a totally different nature than the Chinese-North Korean relations. China and North Korea chose to be allies while Russia and North Korea felt like they were pushed by the international system to be allies. From the wake of their bilateral relations, the North Koreans have always been distrustful of the Soviet Union because of its refusal to be directly involved in the Korean War, unlike China and America who were directly involved backing their allies. The end of the Korean War left the North Koreans strongly believing that the Chinese were their true allies in the region not the Soviet Union. 34 The Soviets believed that North Korea wasn’t a true ally but rather a buffer zone between them and their American adversaries in South Korea. They also were always wary that North Korea would commit an unpredictable military act against the south and force the Soviets into direct confrontation with the Americans leading to a world war. Besides, the soviet doctrine was based on thinking of the Soviet 32 http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/15/us-korea-north-idUSTRE71E0IB20110215 33 “Sino-American Relations: Dynamic stability Facing New Factors.” Wang Fei-Ling, AEIBackground Brief no. 396, 6th Aug., 2008. 34 http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/north-east-asia/north-korea/B071-north-korea-russia-relations-a-strained-friendship.aspx

Union as the only Communist leading regime and all other communist regimes would orbit it and follow its orders. Therefore, when China tried to emerge as a communist but independent state, the Soviet Union went into confrontation with China which amounted to military confrontations at sometimes over the borders. As a result of this, the Soviet Union was afraid that if it was to help North Korea, it would find itself with another China. Besides, the North Korean-Chinese proximity raised many Soviet complains. This didn’t stop the Soviet Union from helping North Korea. The North Koreans were also smart enough to exploit the tensions between both the Chinese and the Soviets trying to get economic and military aids from both sides. Russia has been North Korea’s traditional supplier of equipment, oil and arms. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, North Korea owed a $4-5 billion debt to Russia, 70% of which was unpaid-for weapons. After the Soviet Union dissolution, Russia was in a complete economic chaos. Russia was seeking economic assistance and political models in the west, so it didn’t pay much attention to its neighbor. The Russian-North Korean relations were continuously underestimated and there were many conflicts about how North Korea was going to pay its $4-5 billion debt to Russia. With Vladimir Putin’s arrival to the Kremlin many things were changing. Russia was being intimidated by the NATO expansion and the NATO war in Kosovo. The rising Russian oil revenues were boosting the Russian economy so Russia started to seek its lost prestige. North Korea was there with many prospects which encouraged Putin to visit North Korea in 2000 which was the first visit by any Russian high-level official. Actively acting in North Korea would force America to seek Russian help to resolve the issue. It also would help Russia regain some of its forgotten prestige as an international moderator. The North Korean issue would also provide promising economic opportunities. Russia suggested building a nuclear power plant in North Korea as well as providing North Korea with oil shipments both being internationally financed most probably by South Korean and Japanese governments. Russia and North Korea also showed signs on reaching an agreement to pay the North Korean debt by North Korea providing North Korean workers as free labor in Russian Siberia. 35 In exchange Russia publicly supported the Korean regime and Putin committed Russia to securing North Korea against an Iraq-like scenario in North Korea. North Korea also is making use of the Russian card in the six party talks with America. Besides, they are negotiating with Russia to be provided by spare parts to their military equipment that was purchased from the Soviet Union as well as developing their facilities that were built by the Soviet Union in the 1950s and 1960s. This gave Russia a great role in the North Korean negotiations along with the Chinese. Inorder to influence Russia, America would have to deal with many issues. North Korea may not be as important to Russia as Iran still Russia is using it very well as a pressure card in its negotiations with America on many other topics. The NATO expansion is a main dispute between America and Russia where America wants countries like Ukraine and Poland, traditionally regarded by Russia to be under its sphere of influence, to join the NATO. One other issue is the reduction of Weapons of Mass Destruction “WMD”. Recently America and Russia have signed the New START treaty which would be a new step towards a nuclear free world. The treaty is still to be ratified by the American congress as well as the 35 “North Korean Foreign Relations In the Post-Cold War World” Samuel S. Kim, April 2007.

Russian legislative body in order to come into force and it is facing many objections. Russia also has a very prominent position in the Iranian, the Syrian and the Georgian conflicts. Russia is also one of the largest oil and gas producers and to a great extent controls energy supplies to the American allies in Europe. In the pursuit of resolving the North Korean conflict, Russia might be a great help to the international efforts and it can considerably influence North Korea, therefore America is expected to seek Russia’s help. 36

American Anti-Ballistic missile defenses Ballistic Missile Defense has always been an important and critical element in the American defensive tactics. Its development and deployment has been one of the most controversial issues in America. In the early years, the Anti-Ballistic defenses were driven by the American fears of any soviet attacks by their huge arsenal of the Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM). Those fears drove America towards heavy and extensive investment in this field. In the late years of the cold war the fears were even heightened of accidental or unauthorized Russian Ballistic attacks because of the chaos that plagued the Soviet Union in its late days.

IN 1972, United States of America and the Soviet Union signed the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty that limited, but still didn’t ban, the deployment of Ballistic Missile defenses as an effort to control the arms race. This treaty was in effect after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In 2002, President Bush’s administration reviewed this treaty and decided to unilaterally withdraw from it. The Administration reasoned that by the emerging regional threats from North Korea, Iran, Syria and any other possible adversary. The Bush Administration went on with its plans of development and deployment of Anti Ballistic defenses throughout the world in order to protect the American mainland, deployed American troops and American allies everywhere. This included defenses on the American homeland in Alaska and California as well as defenses on foreign land as the ones that were proposed in Europe. 37

When Obama took the lead, he ordered his Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, who was Bush’s Secretary of Defense as well, to undergo a review of the American policies concerning the Anti-Ballistic Missile defenses. In his review, Gates concluded that there was no need to develop defenses directed to Russia and China as a war with them was so unlikely. Instead he stated that the threat was coming from emerging regional players as North Korean and Iran because of their pursuit of more and more ballistic 36 “Annual Threat Assessment of the Intelligence Community” Dennis C. Blair, February 2009. 37 “National Missile Defense and Alaska” Steven A. Hildreth.

missiles along with chemical, biological and nuclear warheads. He also stated that at the current moment and for the foreseen future, the United States is well protected against any missile threats from North Korea. But in order to cope with the evolving threats of the future, America should revitalize and upgrade its development and research and its cooperation with its regional allies to meet the challenges of the future. 38 This policy received a variety of criticism and appraisal. Many opposed this policy as it neglects the Russian and Chinese threats. This would cause many dangerous effects to the balance of power in the future. Besides, such a policy would mean no more deployment of new Anti Ballistic defenses but rather it focuses on upgrading the already existing ones. This is seen as a grave danger, bearing in mind the Chinese development of many ICBMs and its annual increase in defense budget. One more thing is that the development of Missile defense programs poses much burden on the American budget in the time of a grave crisis. The American Government Accountability office in 2009 stated that since 2002 the American administration has spent $56 Billion on development of missile defense systems and that it was expected to spend more $50 Billion in the next five years. In the proposed fiscal year 2011 budget, Missile defense programs is going to cost about $10 Billions, with an increase by 7.3% than 2010 and it’s the Department of Defense second most expensive program. Besides, it’s very hard to determine the accurate costs of the program, and it most probably exceeds the expected cost by $2-3 Billion. 39

One more thing is that, such a policy totally neglects the aspects of militarization of space. It’s quiet obvious that Obama’s no.1 priority in foreign policy is demilitarization. Therefore he has agreed to enter into negotiations under the umbrella of the United Nations to reach an agreement to ban militarization of space. Such an agreement could gravely affect American missile defenses bearing in mind that many American defenses include missiles that could reach the space as well as space-based interceptors. 40

38 “Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report” Department of Defense, February, 2010. 39 “Soaring Costs Jeopardize Missile Defense Systems” Christopher Drew, New York Times, March 17th, 2009. 40 “The Obama Administration’s Ballistic Missile defense Program: Treading Water in shark-Infested Seas”, Baker spring, The Heritage Foundation, April, 2010.

On the other side, many have praised this policy of focusing on the regional threats. War with Russia and China is so improbable. America has the ultimate advantage in military power and the power balance is overwhelmingly leaning towards America. America’s military expenditure is six times that of china. Implementing this policy would free the American military institution from many burdens that date back to the cold war. These burdens are both too expensive and too impractical not coping with the current threats. Focusing the anti-Ballistic Missile defense programs towards regional threats like North Korea and Iran will both secure the American lands and save the budget a lot of money. It will also enable America to produce defenses that can protect the deployed American troops and American allies all over the world which will assure America’s allies that they are secure. This policy also helps to create a better international sphere with the key players including China and Russia. Such a sphere would facilitate reaching settlements for many disputes including military as well as economic ones.

South Korea… The Good Ally After the World War II, the Korean peninsula witnessed the separation of the peninsula into two separate states and the events that followed this including the Korean War (1950-53) and the Americanled United Nations intervention which saved Seoul from falling into the hands of Kim Il-Sung forever. At these times North Korea was much more developed than the South, concerning both the Economy and the Military, which made South Korea realize that its very existence depended on its close adherence on the American support, and that is why the alliance with America is the corner stone of the South Korean policy. Since then South Korea has relied on America to secure its borders and national interests, this gave South Korea the advantage of allocating more and more resources towards economic and social development. Today South Korea stands as one of the most promising economies in the world and is one of the four “Asian Tigers”.

South Korea’s approach towards North Korea is based on its aspirations of eventual reunion on peaceful basis. This means that South Korea has to both maintain a strong military capable of defeating any North Korean maneuvers as well as a strong economy to support its incentives to persuade the regime in the north. South Korea also has to keep a strong military to be able to protect its territories putting in mind its traditional rivalry with both Japan and China.

South Korean Military In order to guarantee the South's security from future North Korean aggression, the United States and South Korea signed the mutual defense treaty in 1953. The treaty stipulated that either country would come to the defense of the other if attacked by a third party. Additionally the American and South Korean military to this day enjoy a high level of cooperation. The U.S. keeps 28,500 troops in South Korea in what it says is a deterrent against any possible aggression from North Korea and says it has no intention of invading the North.

But the recent sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan, March 2010, inflamed the whole area where US and South Korea have held a series of joint military exercises in the Sea of Japan aimed at deterring North Korea. About 8000 US and South Korean troops, 20 ships and submarines and 200 aircraft took part in the drill, which the US and South Korea have said is aimed at curbing the North's "aggressive" behavior. North Korea which denies any involvement in the sinking, has threatened to revenge against South Korea and the U.S. over the drills, which Pyongyang sees as a rehearsal for an invasion. The North routinely threatens US and South Korean military drills held in the region, seeing them as a rehearsal for a possible invasion.

South Korean Economy South Korea is a developed country designated one of the four “Asian Tigers” along with Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan and is a member of the G20 economies. South Korea has recorded some of the highest growth rates from the 1960s of the past century till very soon and still is one of the highest even after the crisis. In less than half a century South Korea succeeded in increasing its GDP from 2.7US$ in 1962 to almost a trillion before the beginning of the international economic crisis and, it was ranked the 15th in terms of GDP . 41 South Korean has been one of the few developed countries that were able to overcome the recession of the crisis and recorded a growth rate of 6.1% in 2010 42. South Korean economy is a highly developed economy with a diversity of industries and exports to many countries all over the world. Its major trade partners are China, United States and Japan. Despite of the fact that the South Korean economy is a very strong and promising one, its market isn’t a highly rated one and many foreign countries don’t invest in its market. This can be attributed to its neighbor North Korea. Many are afraid that North Korea might at any point escalate the situation into a military confront. One other fear is that if the North Korean regime collapses, huge numbers of refugees might flee the North into the South, which would heavily strain the South Korean economy. This is one of the main reasons South Korea is working on peacefully defusing the Korean dilemma.

Inter-Korean Relations For almost 20 years after the 1950-53 Korean War, relations between North and South Korea were minimal and strained. Official contact did not occur until 1971, in 1971 negotiations between North and South Korea provided the first hope for peaceful reunification of the peninsula; in Nov., 1972, an agreement was reached for the establishment of joint machinery to work toward unification.

41 World Bank data, http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/GDP.pdf 42 http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/09/02/2010090200971.html

There are many problems blocking complete reunification and they continue to be substantial. One of them is the provocations from both sides; two incidents of terrorism against South Korea were widely attributed to North Korea: a 1983 bombing that killed several members of the South Korean government and the 1987 destruction of a South Korean airliner over the Thailand-Myanmar border. In 1996, North Korea said it would cease to recognize the demilitarized zone between the two Koreas, and North Korean troops made incursions into the zone. In 1999 a North Korean torpedo boat was sunk by a South Korean vessel in South Korean waters following a gun battle. In early 2000, however, the North engaged in talks with a number of Western nations, seeking diplomatic relations, and South and North agreed to a presidential summit in Pyongyang. The historic and cordial meeting produced an accord that called for working toward reunification (though without specifying how) and for permitting visits between families long divided as a result of the war. However, the tensions that developed in late 2002, as Relations worsened following North Korea’s acknowledgement in October 2002 of a secret program to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons, have, for the time being, derailed any significant further reunification talks. Also during The Six-Party Talks which aimed at ending North Korea's nuclear program through a negotiations process involving. Since the talks began, negotiations have been spoiled by diplomatic standoffs among individual Six-Party member states--particularly between the United States and North Korea. In April 2009, North Korea quit the talks. In March, 2010, Seoul accused Pyongyang of torpedoing its warship, the Cheonan, in the Yellow Sea with the loss of 46 sailors. An international committee formed to investigate the incident, confirmed that a North Korean submarine was the cause of the incident. North Korea refused that and said that it was the “most hideous conspiratorial farce in history.” Then in November 2010, North Korea attacked a South Korean island with artillery fire and killed 2 soldiers and injured 15 others as well as 3 civilians and many houses were burnt. This was the first attack on a civilian area since the Korean War in 1953. This attack came just before 70,000 South Koreans troops were preparing to start a military exercise. Analysts reported that this attack was North Korea’s way of asking for help. North Korea is telling the south and America that they are not dead yet and that America should deal with them and continue their aid. This also was seen as a way to justify the “Military first” ideology and therefore strengthen the son’s position who is a Four star General now. 43 In February, 2011, low level military talks were resumed and were supposed to be followed by higher level talks. These talks were immediately stalled as the South Korean officials asked for an apology for the Cheonan sinking and the bombardment of the South Korean island which made the North Korean officials to leave the negotiations. 44 These reunification efforts, conducted by South Korea, ultimate goal are the denuclearization and reunification of the Korean peninsula. Seoul also wishes to avoid a sudden regime change in Pyongyang that would force it to bear the economic burden of a large, 43 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/24/world/asia/24korea.html 44 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/8311159/North-South-Korea-talks-stall.html

sudden influx of refugees across its border. In it’s pursue of reunification, South Korea uses economic incentives as a carrot while the American sanctions, on the other side, are the stick.

North-South Korean Economic Ties Two-way trade between North and South Korea, which was first legalized in 1988, rose to almost $1.82 billion in 2008 before declining sharply thereafter. Until recently, South Korea was North Korea's secondlargest trading partner after China. Much of the work done in North Korea has been funded by South Korea, but this assistance was halted in 2008 except for energy aid (heavy fuel oil) authorized under the Six-Party Talks. Many of these economic ties have become important symbols of hope for the eventual reunification of the peninsula. For example, after the June 2000 North-South summit, the two Koreas have reconnected their east and west coast railroads and roads where they cross the DMZ and have improved these transportation routes. Unfortunately, these North-South economic ties have been seriously damaged by escalating tensions following North Korea’s torpedoing of the South Korean warship Cheonan in March 2010 except for one project called “Kaesong Industrial Zone” which is named after the city that hosts the zone, near the border in the North Korean territory. It is the only economic tie that still is functioning between the North and South up to date.

Kaesong Industrial Complex One of the huge economic ties between north Korea and south Korea is the KIC(Kaesong industrial complex).The KIC resulted from an initiative led by the Hyundai Group beginning in 1998 that coincided with the Republic of Korea’s (ROK) “sunshine policy” that attempted to improve relations between South and North Korea. The KIC is located just across the demilitarized zone (DMZ) in North Korea. The purposes of the KIC as stated by South Korea has been to develop an industrial park in which South Korean businesses could manufacture products using North Korean labor, provide an opening for North Korea to liberalize and reform its economy, and ease tensions across the DMZ. The KIC provides a channel for rapprochement between the DPRK and South Korea. On the South Korean side, the KIC provides small and medium-sized companies with a manufacturing platform and opportunity to access low-cost labor without having to go overseas to establish subsidiaries or to outsource the assembly of their products to China or other markets. On the North Korean side, the KIC provides jobs for workers who can earn relatively higher wages without crossing their borders illegally or working under contract in labor-scarce countries such as those in the Russian Far East or in Middle Eastern countries. 45 On one side, the KIC is being braised as many see it as a beginning to free the market in North Korea as well as a way to reach the North Korea. The economic growth witnessed in China was initiated when china established zones like this. They also hope that if this project was successful it would be used 45 “The Kaesong North-South Korean Industrial complex” Dick K. Nanto, Mark E. Manyin, 1 st June, 2010.

as a leverage in international negotiations with North Korea. Besides, attaching the economy of North Economy to joint projects with the south might ease the tensions between both sides and discourage the North Korean regime from undertaking any aggression against the South. On the other side, the project has been criticized as it gives the North Korean regime with millions of dollars that they might use in developing more and more weapons. Besides, the hope that economic prosperity would bring democracy has proven to be wrong as in China which is more prosperous than ever and still with the same level of liberties and freedom. One more thing is that the North Korean insists that the wages that the South Korean firms pay to North Korean workers must be channeled through the regime. Itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s believed that after the north Korean government takes the money from the South Korean firms it only gives 40% of it to the workers while taking the other 60% as taxes.

American-South Korean Free Trade Agreement: In 2007, under the Bush administration, America and South Korea signed a free trade agreement that has yet to be ratified by the American congress. The KORUS FTA is a comprehensive FTA that eliminates virtually all barriers to trade and investment between the two countries. Tariffs on 95% of trade between the two countries will be eliminated within three years of implementation, with virtually all the remaining tariffs being removed within 10 years of implementation; the FTA also contains chapters that address non-tariff measures in investment, intellectual property, services, competition policy, and other areas. The KORUS FTA is the largest free trade agreement Korea has ever signed, the largest free trade agreement for the United States since the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1992, and the United Statesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; first FTA with a major Asian economy. Economists have projected that the FTA will generate billions of dollars in increased trade and investment between the United States and the Republic of Korea, and boost economic growth and job creation in both countries). The U.S. International Trade Commission estimates that the reduction of Korean tariffs and tariffrate quotas on goods alone would add $10 billion to $12 billion to annual U.S. Gross Domestic Product and around $10 billion to annual merchandise exports to Korea. As the first U.S. FTA with a North Asian partner, the KORUS FTA could be a model for trade agreements for the rest of the region, and underscore the U.S. commitment to the Asia-Pacific region. U.S. government statistics show the implementation of the FTA with South Korea, the seventh-largest trading partner for the U.S., will create 240,000 jobs and increase annual two-way trade by more than $20 billion. On the other side, the agreement is widely criticized and for many reasons. One obstacle is the possibility of including South Korean projects located in North Korea, as in KIC, in this agreement. Organized labor raised concerns about the possibility that products that North Korean workers produce in the Kaesong Industrial Zone could be transshipped duty free to the United States through South Korea. The imbalance in auto trade and restricted shipments of beef are two major obstacles to the Korea FTA's ratification. The U.S. exported 5,878 autos to South Korea last year, while South Korean auto shipments to the United

States totaled 476,833, according to statistics by the United Auto Workers which shadows many doubts over the ability of this agreement to create jobs in America in a time when creating jobs after the crisis is a priority. 35 Representatives of U.S.-based auto manufacturers expressed early opposition to the FTA, because they believe that it does not address the South Korean barriers to auto imports. U.S. beef exports to South Korea reached US$216 million last year, making South Korea the fourth-largest importer of U.S. beef products. The U.S. also wants South Korea to lift restrictions on the shipment of beef. South Korea imports beef only from cattle less than 30 months old, due to fear of mad cow disease. The United States recorded three cases of the disease between 2003 and 2006.

Recently, America and South Korea have reached a compromise concerning the agreement. The compromise would give better conditions for the American car makers, as it states that the reduction tariff on American cars would start immediately while the reduction on South Korean cars would take longer time. This compromise made the American public more inclined to accept the agreement as the American auto makers and lobbies pledged their support to the agreement. On the other side, the agreement doesn’t address the issue of American beef exports, which makes it a bad agreement for the American farmers who were hoping that Obama administration would press the South Korean government to fully open its market for American beef of all ages including more than 30 months. 46 One last thing is that America is facing the fact that South Korea has signed another free trade agreement with the European Union which is to go into effect in June, 2010. If America doesn’t ratify its agreement with South Korea, the South Koreans might start to shift their interest from the American side to the European side, which would have its bad effects on the American position in Asia. 47

Japan…. The cornerstone The US-Japan relations are considered to be one of the most complex relations that have went through a series of ups and downs throughout their history. After the post world war II period, their relations came to be governed by common interest and rested on common democratic values which ensured a sustained stable strong alliance between the two powers. After the recent terrorist attacks on US, the US-Japan relations witnessed a lot of improvement and stronger cooperation. Japan is said to be turning to be the Great Britain of the Pacific, as the US-UK relationship being held up as the model for 46 “Can Obama, Lee sell lawmakers on US-South Korea free trade deal?” Donald Kirk 47 “The EU-South Korea Free Trade Agreement and Its Implications for the United States” William H. Cooper

the future US-Japan relations; the two countries are currently working together in a great security and economic alliance. China replacing Japan being the greatest economic threat to the US, decreased trade frictions between the two countries which was the greatest barrier confronting their strong relation. The US is getting the best of this tight relation as the US nuclear umbrella provides Japan with the required maneuvering room in dealing with neighbors like China and North Korea. Also during the so called war against terror in Afghanistan, Japan permitted the dispatch of Japanese ships and transport aircraft to the Indian Ocean in order to supply the US forces with a noncombat logistic support. It also used to supply US and allied warships with about 30% of their fuel needs up to march 2005.In the early 2004 Tokyo sent around 600 noncombat military support despite the strong public opposition.

Economic Disputes: U.S.-Japan economic ties play a critical role in shaping the relationship between the two countries. The U.S. and Japan were considered to be the worldsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; two largest economies, before china replaced Japan in 2010, accounting for around 40% of world gross domestic product (GDP), thus their mutual relationship has a great impact on the world as a whole. Given this fact, the significance of the two countries domestic economic conditions strongly affects their bilateral relationship. In the recent years, the trade frictions between the two countries have been decreasing as Japan was being replaced by a much larger rival which is china. For 2004 the merchandise trade deficit with Japan was about $75 billion compared to $164 billion with China.

The major persistent bilateral trade dispute is concerned with the Japanese ban on imports of U.S beef. Japan imposed the ban starting from 2003 on the discovery of a case of mad cow disease in Washington. There have been a lot of arguments between the two countries concerning this issue proposing several solutions like determining the age of the cattle to avoid the potentiality of being infected. The issue is considered to be very critical and it reached the highest political levels. In March 9, 2005 President Bush called the Prime Minister Koizumi urging him to lift the ban. Different members of the congress have weighed in on the issue as well. Many believe that U.S. should impose economic sanctions against Japan, if Japan doesnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t lift the Ban. However, Japanese government officials now contend that it is up to the food safety commission to make the final decision on lifting the ban.

Missile Shield in Japan: During the late 90â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s a U.S. - Japan program of cooperative research and development of antiballistic missiles began. U.S. military officials reportedly have recommended that Japan should adapt a

missile defense system that combines the ground based U.S. Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) system and the ship based U.S. standard missile-3 system. In December 2003, Koizumi announced that Japan would acquire these two U.S. systems. The total cost to Japan is estimated close to $10 billion which is good news to the American weapon industry. The missile defense cooperation with Japan tackles several critical issues to the U.S. ranging from the protection of U.S. regional forces, Asia-Pacific allies, and Taiwan, from the Chinese short- and medium- range missiles, to countering the rising threat to the U.S. territory from long-range missiles developed by North Korea.

In August 1999, Japan participated in the U.S. Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) program when the government agreed on conducting a cooperative research on the components of the interceptor missile which was being developed for the U.S. Navy anti-missile system. The system is a sea based capability against short and medium range missiles up to 3,500 kilometers which provides U.S. forces an upper-tier ballistic missile defense capability without the need for land bases thereby providing a large and highlyeffective, layered regional defense. In 2001, the administration started to reorganize increasing threats and redirected the U.S. missile defense program in order to be able to defeat missile attacks on U.S. lands by rogue states. The pentagon re-designated the program as the Sea-Based Midcourse System, with a goal of developing a capability for attacking missiles of all ranges during the initial and middle phases of the flight path. Japanâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s cooperation in the development of the technology that could become a part of an American national missile defense capability is seen by the Japanese as transgressing a constitutional ban on â&#x20AC;&#x153;collective defenseâ&#x20AC;?.

The shift in the Japanese policy has created more obstacles to the bilateral BMD cooperation. The new U.S. approach was criticized in the Japanese press because of the potential violation of the constitution and that the initiative required the U.S. to withdraw from the U.S.-Russia Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty, which was considered by Japan to be an important element of the strategic stability. Also an integrated U.S,-Japan BMD capability aimed at protecting third countries would rise the same constitutional concerns. On the other hand, many Japanese politicians are considering the BMD as a matter of national security which would help to encounter either Chinese or North Korean missile threat. They also argue that Japan should start to rely on itself in defense matters bearing in mind the growing threats from China. One more thing is that many countries, China included, might see this as a Japanese reversal to the military ideology. East Asia, especially China and both North and South Korea, have a very bad history with Japan. For about 50 years from the beginning of the 20 th century till its defeat in WWII, Japan used to invade and occupy the lands of its neighbors during which it inflicted many humiliations. The slightest sign of remilitarization of Japan would recall all the bad memories the Asian nations have and would ignite an arms race. If we add to this the fact that many of the Asian borders are still debated

and aren’t decided yet, we would get a very serious situation that might deteriorate beyond any one’s reach which would affect the American interests severely.

Okinawa: Okinawa is considered Japan’s southwestern most prefectures; it accounts for approximately 0.6% of the total area of Japan. Okinawa consists of 160 islands, which are scattered over a wide range of ocean span and approximately 1.35 million people live on fifty of these islands. Okinawa occupies a critical location as it’s considered the meeting point of Japan’s mainland, the Chinese continent and the nation of Southeast Asia and it’s expected to be the center of exchange between Japan and carious nations of east and Southeast Asia. Okinawa has great geographic characteristics which makes it a great attraction to many tourists. Okinawa is distinguished with its unique subtropical oceanic climate with its emerald green seas and white sandy beaches. Okinawa attracts millions of people from all over the world every year (5.08 million in 2003). Okinawa lived to witness its downfall during the mid of the 1945 and all its beauty was brought down to rubbles on which the U.S. started building new bases and considered the island as a keystone for its forces in the pacific. Okinawa was placed under the U.S. administration from 1951 till 1972 where it was reverted back to Japan. Still with the U.S. bases, facilities and areas carried on, the people of Okinawa came together against the excessive concentration of bases on the islands as they are always under the risk of the different military accidents and even abuse of power by some of the American military personnel.48 Daily aircraft noise, military aircraft crashes, oil spills, red soil runoff, and forest fires are only some of the dangers the people of Okinawa suffer. Between the revision of Okinawa and the end of December 2003, a number of 5269 criminal cases committed by military personnel including several cases of Japanese young girls being raped by American soldiers. This only led to escalating the situation in the region. Okinawa dreaming of once more regaining its legacy and distinguished position and assets, three sets of development plans have been implemented to the improvement of the social infrastructure ranging from roadways and harbors to be developed as well as educational facilities. Still Okinawa would never be able to regain its glory having the U.S. clinging down on its shoulder; the U.S. military bases occupies almost 10.4% of prefectural island, and around 18.8% of main island of Okinawa will always hinder the city formation, traffic system improvement, industrial infrastructure. 48 http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/facility/okinawa.htm

In 2006, the American and Japanese administrations signed a treaty under which the Futenma would be relocated to another less populated area within Okinawa. According to the treaty, further steps included redeployment of 8000 American troops outside Okinawa to Guam. This agreement came after 13 years of tiring negotiations and would have settled one of the largest sources of friction between Japan and America. In 2009, and after 54 years in power, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) lost the elections and the opposition party; the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). One of the LDP’s main slogans during its campaign was the relocation of the Futenma base outside of Okinawa, so when it made first contact with the American officials they refused to abide by the 2006 treaty saying that it was signed by the DPJ’s government not them.49 Inside America, many politicians, see that a deal is a deal. They aren’t concerned with whoever signs it as he doesn’t represent a specific party but the Japanese state. Okinawa represents a very important strategic point being very close to the Asian mainland which gives it a high significance in any future military conflict in the region as it would shorten the time needed by American troops to reach the area whenever needed. Besides, it would be seen by other Asian allies as American retreat from the region and would destabilize the balance in East Asia. On the other side, many American politicians see this attitude as a bossy one from the American government. After all, it’s a Japanese land and insisting on this would stir more nationalistic trend in the Japanese mind which would have extreme consequences. Insisting on forcing the Japanese government to abide to the 2006 treatment would create more and more unconstructive friction between both countries.

49 “The new battle of Okinawa” the Economist, Jan., 14th, 2010, http://www.economist.com/node/15271146?story_id=15271146

Finale East Asia is and will always be one of the most important areas in our world. America as a superpower will have to formulate its approach towards this region so that it minimizes the threats as much as possible and maximizes the benefits as greatly as possible. In international relations, it is believed that there are no constant enemies nor constant allies but constant interests. In other words, America has to keep many options as much as possible available to give its policy makers the freedom to maneuver in order to reach their goals.

In case of North Korea, America has many identified threats, they way it’s going to deal with these threats, isn’t identified yet. North Korea is a stark example of defying the international laws and agreements that other international players can closely witness and take wisdom from. It’s up to America to show the world whether it’s an endurable example to follow and act like so that they can get whatever benefits they can get or make it clear that there are red lines and crossing the lines will not be tolerated any more. This leads us to another point which is the implications of the American policy towards North Korea as North Korea is both affecting and being affected by its regional neighbors.

South Korea and Japan are American allies but that doesn’t mean that they are American subordinates which implies America should deal with them with even more dexterity. Each of them has his national priorities that would either go parallel with or against the American. The American role is to try its best to out rule the points of misunderstanding and emphasize on the common points to build a policy of containment and deterrence of the threats that arise in this part of the world.

There is no doubt that the last century was leaning towards the west. History lessons, as evident by many past and current examples, tend to repeat themselves which makes us believe that there will be shift of wealth and power towards the east. In the past, shift used to be violent and with many casualties, this time we as humans can’t afford to let that happen. In the nuclear weapons ear, the losses of one more violent shift are unimaginable. How America is going to manage its interests is going to decide the way and the outcome of this shift.

Yemen Torn Under Gears of War The 20th century and the ones before witnessed many wars and much blood was shed. These wars were waged for many different purposes; some for new territories, others for economic causes, many for religious aims and more because of pride or even ego. However, they all had one common character no matter where, when or how they were waged; the involved parties were always states. The state would have a regular moving army that could be drawn into a direct confrontation. The state has a known geographical presence that can be targeted, this presence would be modified, but it would constantly keep the same central point. The state would have a government that is issuing the war orders and waiting for the consequences to sign the treaties and end the war. Today, we are in 2010. The first decade of the 21st century has passed and nine more lie ahead. Throughout the last decade of the 20th and the first decade of the 21st centuries, many war axioms have changed. War now doesn’t necessarily involve two states; it has evolved to include smaller groups fighting for many other purposes. The stark example is Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda has seen light in the last century and since then it has waged an open war but its most evident attack was the 9/11 attacks. Since then America has put a lot of effort into its war against international terrorism and Al Qaeda. The war here is a totally new and unprecedented one; the war against Al Qaeda is a war against a ghost, no regular armies, no fixed targets and no government to negotiate with. In This war, the Al Qaeda’s most eminent privilege is that it’s a volatile group that can easily move from one place to another to establish new bases to ignite more raids in its war. Throughout its life, whenever it was on the verge of being defeated at one battlefield, it was able to change its position to another from Libya to Sudan to Afghanistan to Iraq, as it was claimed. Now it has been defeated in its stronghold in Afghanistan and is on the verge of another defeat in Iraq, unfortunately it was able to do its tradition and move to a new host, Yemen. Yemen is located in Southwest Asia at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula between Oman and Saudi Arabia. It is situated at the entrance to the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, which links the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean via the Gulf of Aden and is one of the most active and strategic shipping lanes in the world. Yemen has an area of 527,970 square kilometers including a number of islands at the southern end of the Red Sea and the entrance to the Gulf of Aden. Yemen’s land boundaries total 1,746 kilometers. Yemen borders the oil rich Saudi Arabia to the north and Oman to the northeast.

Yemeni history started in pre-Islamic era, the area that encompasses the present-day Republic of Yemen was a very famous civilization and was ruled by many independent monarchs and was called “The Happy Yemen”. History of Yemen started to become more evident by the entrance of Islam around A.D. 630, after which Yemen was ruled as part of Arab caliphates. The former North Yemen came under the control of imams of various dynasties, the most important of which were the Zaydis who opposed the Ottoman rule. The Ottoman Empire was dissolved in 1918, and Imam Yahya took power in the area that later became the “Yemen Arab Republic” (YAR), or North Yemen. The rule of Zaydis ended in 1962 by a coup led by Colonel Abd-Allah Al Sallal, who took control of Sana’a and created the YAR. Civil war ensued between the royalist forces, supported by Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the western hemisphere in opposition to the newly formed republic, and republicans, supported by Egyptian troops. In 1967 Egyptian troops were withdrawn, In 1970 Saudi Arabia, the main adversary, recognized the YAR. In the south, British influence increased after the British captured the port of Aden in 1839. It was ruled as part of British India until 1937, when Aden became a crown colony, and the remaining territory was designated a protectorate. The last British troops were removed on November the 29th, after which the People’s Republic of Yemen, comprising Aden and South Arabia, was proclaimed. In June 1969, a radical Marxist party gained power. The country’s name changed to the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY) on December the 1st, 1970. By 1972, the two Yemenis were in open conflict. The YAR received aid from Saudi Arabia, and the PDRY received arms from the Soviet Union. Although the Arab League brokered a cease-fire and both sides agreed to forge a united Yemen within 18 months, the two Yemenis remained apart. After long years of maneuvering, both Yemenis were united and The Republic of Yemen was officially declared in May, 1990. President Salih of the YAR became president of the new republic and PDRY President al Attas was named prime minister. In late 1991 through early 1992, deteriorating economic conditions led to significant domestic unrest, including several riots. The country’s general security situation deteriorated as

political rivals settled scores and tribal elements took advantage of the widespread unrest. By May 1994, the country was in civil war, and international efforts to broker a cease-fire were unsuccessful. In May 1994, leaders of the former South Yemen declared secession but the new republic failed to achieve any international recognition. In July 1994, President Salih’s troops captured Aden, thus ending the civil war. The country continued to experience unrest due to economic hardship, coupled with increasing lawlessness, particularly against tourists. President Salih was reelected in September 2006. In October 2007, he announced comprehensive political reforms, some of which will not take effect until he is no longer in power, calling into question the prospects for implementation. The September 2006 elections for local and governorate council seats, as well as the May 2008 elections for governorate governors have left power largely in the hands of the ruling regime.50

Economy of Yemen: Although Yemen lies in a region traditionally famous for its oil rich giants, Yemen is a poor country extremely limited oil resources. Economic conditions which have a crucial effect on different aspects of live have affected Yemen so badly. Some think with the continuing demographic, economical, and political trends Yemen would be turning to a failed state in less than three years, which is rather extreme. Yemen needs to receive proper attention from global forces in order to solve persistent complications in the region. The bad economic conditions in Yemen can be attributed to many problems which pose much burden over the future of Yemeni people. 

High Illiteracy and Unemployment rates:

Yemen’s latest census, conducted in December 2004, reported a population of 19.72 million persons. According to the United Nations, in 2005 Yemen ranked 153 out of 177 countries on the human development index (HDI), a measure of life expectancy, education, and standard of living which is a score comparable to most poor sub-Saharan African nations and is the lowest ranking among the Arab states. According to World Bank in 2005, the illiteracy rate in Yemen among population of 15 years and older is 46% which means that almost half of the population is illiterate. Yemen is suffering from deep poverty with high unemployment rates around 35% and almost half the population is below the poverty line with an economic growth rate below 3% and inflation rate of 18%. The population census reflected an average annual population growth rate of more than 3%. Yemen’s population has grown approximately 35 percent since the 1994 census, making Yemen the second

50 “Country Profile: Yemen” Library of congress, federal Research Division.



most populous country on the Arabian Peninsula after Saudia Arabia. Adding to the growth of the native population is the influx of Somali refugees into Yemen.51 Depletion of oil resources: Yemen is a country poor in its oil resources and isn’t a part of Organization of Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC). Nonetheless, oil constituted 85% of Yemeni exports as well as 75% of government revenues. Yemen oil reserves are expected to dry up in the period between 2017 and 2020. One more thing is the chaos widespread in the Yemen which both hinders the country’s ability to produce from the already existing wells as well as discourages foreign firms from investing in new one.52 Problems Facing Agriculture: Agriculture is the most important economic sector in Yemen. Agriculture employs more than half of the Yemeni of the working force and was responsible for about 20% of the Yemeni GDP in 2003. Due to many problems facing agriculture its contribution to the GDP has fallen to only 12% in 2007. Problems facing agriculture are numerous but the two most important ones are water depletion and cultivation of Qat. Yemen is poor in its water resources with rain and underground water to be its most important water resources, which puts a restraint on its ability to expand its farmed land. Qat, which is a moderate narcotic, is one other big problem. Cultivation of Qat replaces the cultivation of other needed crops like cereals. Besides, Qat is a plant that needs much water and is estimated to consume more than 30% of Yemeni water. One more thing is that chewing Qat has its counterproductive effects, reducing the ability of Yemeni people to work and produce which has its severe implications on the economy bearing in mind that chewing Qat is very popular social tradition in Yemen.53 Industrial sector: in Yemen, the industrial sector, as many other Yemeni sectors, is facing hard time. The US government estimates that 40% of the industrial sector is based on oil refining which is expected to decrease with the depletion of oil resources. Other industries are mainly consumer goods such as food processing. The industrial sector, together with communications and construction, was responsible for less than 25% of the labor force and about 40.9% of GDP in 2007.

51 http://www.undp.org.ye/y-profile.php 52 “Yemen’s oil deadly decline rate”, Steve Andrews, Energy Bulletin, http://www.energybulletin.net/node/51227 53 “Yemen threatens to chew itself to death over thirst for narcotic qat plant” Hugh Macleod, John Vidal. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/feb/26/yemen-qat-water-drought



Vanished tourism revenues:

tourism in Yemen is dwindling down because of many reasons. Tourism is limited to great extent by the limited infrastructure as well as serious security concerns. The country’s hotels and restaurants are scarce and of low quality, and air and road transportation is largely of limited reach. Kidnappings of foreign tourists remain a threat, especially outside the main cities. In 2008, the U.S. Department of State as well as Britain’s Foreign Office reiterated previous warnings to their citizens, urging them to defer non-essential travel to Yemen because the security threat level remains high.

As a result to these numerous problems, Yemeni economy has been dependent on international aid for a long time. Yemen’s main be benefactors are the oil rich gulf countries. Yemen’s gigantic neighbor Kingdom Saudia Arabia (KSA) has always been generous to its poor neighbor except for the period that followed the Gulf War when Yemen aligned itself with Saddam after it invaded Kuwait. These made the Arabian countries cut their aid to Yemen, as well as expel Yemeni workers including about 1 million workers in KSA alone. After that, citing the grave dangers that might arise from chaos in Yemen, the Arab countries resumed their aid to Yemen. Other donors include international institutions as well as United States of America. Over the Past fiscal years, Yemen has received on average between $20 and $25 million annually in total of U.S. foreign aid. In 2002, President Bush outlined a proposal for a major new U.S. foreign aid initiative. The Millennium Challenge Account (MCA) which is managed by the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) and provides assistance, through a competitive selection process, to developing nations that are pursing political and economic reforms in three areas: ruling justly, investing in people, and fostering economic freedom being assessed by 17 different parameters. In November 2005, the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) has suspended Yemen from being qualified under its threshold program under the proclaim that after Yemen was named as a potential aid candidate in 2004, corruption in the country had increased. Yemen was back qualified to apply in November 2006 and had its eligibility reinstated in February 2007, nearly 6 months after it held a relatively successful presidential election. Yemen’s threshold program was approved on September 12, 2007. However, after a month reports about Jamal Al Badawi’s release from prison came up, the MCC canceled a ceremony to inaugurate the $20.6 million threshold grant, stating that the agency is “reviewing its relationship with Yemen”. Since then no further reports were issued from the MCC.54 In September 2009, The United States and Yemen signed a new bilateral assistance agreement to fund essential development projects in the fields of health, education, democracy and governance, agricultural and economic development. The U.S. economic aid to Yemen is meant to support democracy through the total reform of the entire society. In 2010, Yemen was 54 “Millenium change Account” Curt Tarnoff, Congressional Research Services.

granted $52.5 million in economic and military assistance, including $35 million in Development Assistance, $12.5 million in Foreign Military Financing, and $5 million in Economic Support Funds.

Regime in Yemen Governmental corruption is a widespread problem in Yemen. Several civil wars and changes of political control during the past 50 years in the region have left the unified Republic of Yemen’s political system weak and susceptible to influence. In addition, the tribal system of government continues to conflict with the state level of government and has distinct links to the root of corruption in the country. Other factors that have contributed to the corruption epidemic in the country include lack of transparent government operations, poor law enforcement, low salaries for government officials, and the continuing perception of the people that corruption is acceptable. In 2009, Yemen ranked 154 on Transparency International corruption perception index.55 The most common types of corruption in the country are bribery, money laundering, extortion, questionable spending of public funds, and abuse of power, political bribery is also widespread in the country with candidates offering bribes to buy loyalties, votes as well as influencing intellectuals and journalists, While Yemen has taken several steps towards combating its corruption problem such as ratifying the UN Convention against Corruption in 2005, little improvement is noticeable. Yemeni regime is a presidential one, with Ali Abd Allah Saleh the president. In this regime, powers are surely very concentrated in the president’s inner circle constituted almost solely of his family including his son who is commander of the republican guards and is expected to succeed his father. In 1999, Ali Abd Allah Saleh was elected as the first president of Unified Yemen winning 96.3% of the vote. In 2005, he stated that he won’t run again but then in 2006, some protests broke out asking him to run again for the second time so he decided to run again and won 77% of the vote. The Yemeni constitution states a two term limit to any president, so the Yemeni president Ali Abd Allah Saleh can’t run for a third time in 2013 unless the constitution changes. In January 2011, the president’s party, General People’s Congress (GPC) which currently controls the Yemeni parliament proposed amending the constitution to allow the president to be elected for more than two times and at the same time it proposed to shorten the duration of each presidential term, a move which was seen by many politicians to be a way to keep Ali Abd Allah Saleh in presidency forever.

55 http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/yemen/corruption.htm

After wide protests and the fall of more than one of the oldest Arab leaders in the region, and soon after the beginning of the protests in Yemen when the south started it and then the Hawthi in the north joined, president Saleh decided to suspend his campaign to amend the constitution, stated that he won’t run again in 2013 and that his son wouldn’t run for presidency as well. Some opposition figures say that this is a fraud by the president who is trying to control the protests and that after everything is stable again he will resume his plan to amend the constitution.56 On the other side some politicians say that the president has offered enough concessions and that more pressure would only cause chaos in a country weapons are widespread everywhere. That’s why they agreed to resume the dialogue with president Saleh. The last parliamentary elections in Yemen were held in 2003 and the president’s ruling party won 54% of the seats. Next elections were to be held in 2009 but the opposition coalition, Joint Meeting Parties (JMP), threatened to boycott the elections. So, both sides reached an agreement to immediately start a dialogue over political reforms and to postpone the elections till 2011 until a compromise was reached. In October 2010, the ruling party froze the dialogue and the JMP threatened to boycott the 2011 elections. As a result of demonstrations president Saleh pledged the opposition parties (JMP) to resume dialogue and promised to postpone the parliamentary elections if a compromise wasn’t reached. Ten days later the opposition parties (JMP) accepted the president’s offer and stated that they would resume dialogue.57 In the coming days, protests are to prove that Yemen is to follow one of two scenarios. First, there’s the peaceful scenario where the president is up to his word, he resumes dialogue with the opposition parties, parliamentary elections are held in a transparent democratic way, and there would be a peaceful transition of power in 2013. This would be the best scenario as it would be a peaceful one, and it would lay basis for stability and transparency in Yemen. This would reflect on the Yemeni economy as more foreign investors would be encouraged to invest in Yemen and this will create jobs and allow Yemeni citizens to live in better conditions. This also would deprive the terrorist groups from a chaotic safe haven. The other scenario would be a more chaotic one. It starts with escalation of protests or that Saleh goes back on his word which would ignite protests again. In that case people might use violence which would be an available option as weapons are everywhere in Yemen. The scenario would deteriorate to complete chaos under pressure from secession movement in the south, Hawthi rebellion in the north and protests everywhere. This may see a happy ending with 56 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/03/world/middleeast/03yemen.html

57 http://yemenpost.net/Detail123456789.aspx?ID=3&SubID=3133&MainCat=3

a scenario similar to that in Egypt where the people take control and lay the basis for a democratic system of governing. On the other side, this might end into a radical group, backed by one of the regional players, taking control and directing the country towards more extremism. This also could lead to the breakdown of Yemen into smaller countries with no functional order in conditions under which terrorist groups may operate freely with unimaginable consequences for Yemen, Gulf States and the world as a whole. The international community, including the United States of America, should exert sincere efforts to help Yemen avoid chaos. Many methods can be applied including economic incentives, pushing president Saleh towards political and economic reform and even using hard words and actions when thereâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s no other way.

Refugees in Yemen Yemen, being in close proximity to the horn of Africa as well as lacking the measures to secure its long borderline, is one of the main destinations to different African refugees. During the past 20 years, hundreds of thousands of refugees have fled from Somalia to Yemen, where they are granted automatic asylum. In 2007, the Yemeni government estimated that there were 300,000 Somali refugees in Yemen. The Yemeni government now says it may change that, arguing that the Somalis are a burden and a security risk. Reasons for this collective fleeing are many; for instance to escape Al-Shabab, the growing Al Qaeda linked militia in Somalia, fleeing war, drought or even looking for jobs. But itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s not only about the Somali refugees; refugees also flee from Eretria and Ethiopia to the open borders of Yemen. Thousands of Somalis and Ethiopians risk their lives every year to cross the Gulf of Aden to escape from conflict and extreme poverty. Refugees may also threaten Yemen's security in the future, as Al-Shabab has promised to send fighters to re-enforce al-Qaida in its fight against the West. Besides, militants would cross into other Gulf States disguised as refugees from Yemen, which would make Yemen a base for sending terrorists into all of the Gulf countries. One more thing is that, there are reports about Iran, as well as its proxy Hezbollah, using African states on the other side of horn of Africa as a training camp to train militias and send them to aid the northern Al Hawthi group.58

Human rights record of Yemen According to Human Rights watch, Yemen has a poor human rights record. The Yemeni government continues to commit various abuses intended towards those who critic the government as well as those who preserved as a threat to the regime. The abuses include 58 http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2008-07-03-Africa-migration-Yemen_N.htm

arbitrary detentions, unlawful killings and harassment by security forces. The security forces are also suspected to be using lethal force against protesters. There are also many acts being committed against the freedom of speech. Many journalists are being harassed and some others are imprisoned.59

Implications of Yemen domestic conditions on its security The political, economic and social conditions in Yemen are of an alarming level. The political conditions show no signs of improvement on the foreseen term. The economic conditions are extremely frustrating and are pushing the population towards the extremes. The social organization of Yemen is falling. This is exaggerated by vanishing of law enforcement, government sovereignty and control over its territory, and the cleavages among rebels and different religious tribes and groups along with the government, the dominance of tribal leaders outside the capital Sana’a and their fights over oil resources. All this culminated in many problems some of them are seen others are foreseen.

Secession of the South Along history Yemen has rarely been unified. The country demography of tall mountains and dividing canyons as Wadi Hadramout, has hindered the complete successful mingling of the Yemeni people. In 1967, Yemen gained independence from Britain after a long war. Border disputes between North and South lead to war in 1972 and 1979. Yet, Unification efforts started between the politically differently oriented states. These efforts proceeded successfully as it was influenced by the discovery of oil in the north, the retrieval of the Soviet influence, particularly the numerous amounts of aids that were given to the south, along with the eruption of major internal divisions in the south. All these givens left the south miserable, made it more willing to cooperate with the north citing stability which lead to the eventual unification of both but under the rule of the north by Selah’s regime. Both the North and the South reached a unity agreement that came to force in 1990 under a power sharing regime that was claimed to be based upon balancing of powers between the north and south. Unfortunately, soon the south lost trust in Saleh’s authoritarian regime whose all post war initiatives were described to be attempts for concentrating power in his hands. Saleh failed to fulfill his promises of balancing powers and decentralization. The South also noticed the intended marginalization of the southern Yemeni officials and politicians that included 59 Human Rights Watch, In the Name of Unity: The Yemeni Government’s Brutal Response to Southern Movement Protests, December 14, 2009. 61

imprisonment and sometimes reached assassination, exclusion of the southern citizens from high ranking government posts and army forces. Saleh held strong grips over all the oil revenues resources and deprived the south from receiving any of these revenues that constitute despite the fact that Yemen’s largest oil field is located at Al-Maseela in Hadramaut province. 60 The south announced their suffering from the worsening economic status, education, infrastructure and high rate of unemployment through demonstrations and rebels. Losing trust in the government united the opposition altogether in the south, who realized that their rights are never coming back except through persistence and protest. Among them were many supporters from the members of the Yemeni parliament; leaders of political parties, organizations, and most importantly tribe leaders. When the regime arrested Nasir Ali Al-Nuba in 2007, the movement gained momentum. Nasir is a leader of the coordinating committee of southern military retirees which is a group of officers who were forced to retire after their efforts in 1994 war against the northern forces during the civil war. This pushed tens of thousands of people in the south to join the cause of the Southern secession and went in prolonged protests against the regime waving the flag of the former South Yemen. In March and April 2008, tens of thousands of protesters, many of whom were angry over inflation and their exclusion from employment in the army, set fire to police stations and army property in the southern towns. In response, the government deployed only northern soldiers to southern areas. Several hundred protestors were detained. The key demands of south Yemenis include equality, decentralization, and a greater share of state welfare. In 2009, Human rights Watch issued a report stating that the Yemeni army violated human rights in its dealing with the situation in the south by conducting unlawful killings, arbitrary detention and imprisonment of politicians and journalists.61 The gravity of the situation in the South is that it’s open for anyone to exploit it. Most interestingly was the announcement of Al Qaeda leader in Yemen his support to the southern cause. The south has welcomed the joining of another Al Qaeda member Al-Fadhli, the son of an influential sultan who ruled Yemen before. In fact, this incident came for the best interest of Saleh’s who portrayed that incident as a threat that jeopardizes the international security and a major welcoming scene for the existence of a terrorist safe haven in Yemen, a green light excuse for him to continue further elimination of the opposition rebels in the south rather than engaging them in a constructive talk to defuse the crisis. 62 60 http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/yemens-southern-challenge-background-rising-threat-secessionism 61 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/28/world/middleeast/28yemen.html 62 “Al Qaeda in Yemen” Gregory D. Johnsen, Shari Villarosa, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT, July the 7 th, 2009.

Yemen’s Future and stability as well as that of the Arabian Peninsula is closely correlated and dependent on the results of the growing talk of the secession by the southern movement leaders. More violence used in an attempt to secede will more likely lead Yemen to being many more steps closer to a failed state where chaos and extremism can thrive. Secession movement therefore requires more attention from the international actors especially the gulf countries for the preservation of the unity and stability of Yemen.

Al Hawthi Rebellion in the north Al Hawthi is a tribe representing about one third of the population in Yemen, mostly concentrated in the northern parts of Saada province bordering Saudi Arabia and along the eastern plains of the Red sea. They belong to Zaydi religious group, a branch of Shia Islam who claims to be descendents from the prophet. When the 1962 revolution broke out, it had ended a 1000 year of rule of the Zaydi Hashemite. When the new government came, it intended to marginalize the Zaydi and completely neglected Saada to prevent any reversion to their rule again. The Zaydi in Saada province were greatly deprived of economic resources, many social, economic and political rights and were religiously marginalized. This negligence left the Saada province to be one of the poorest areas in Yemen. El Zaydis’ name changed to E Hawthi when it came under the leadership of Hussein El Hawthi who began reviving the Zaydi group through establishing “the organization of youthful believers” after which he was assassinated. It then began attacking police centers. Hospitals, public and private property, kidnapping tourists, blocking roads and performing assassination operations arousing instability and chaos not only in Yemen but in the Saudi and middle east region as a whole and threatening important oil facilities if Yemen doesn’t cut alliances with the US and Israel.63 It wasn’t before 2004, when the relation between the Sunni led government and the Zaydi Shia began to worsen sparking a war between them. The government backed up by Saudi Arabia launched a war of five rounds in the mountain parts in the north resulting in death of many of them. On the other hand, El Hawthi had succeeded in taking over some provinces on the borders with Saudi Arabia. This resulted in death of thousands of lives, suffering of many and the fleeing of over 200,000 Yemeni, according to the UN estimates, to Sana’a struggling for food and shelter and Job opportunities. In 2007, both sides reached a settlement that was implemented a year later that seized the fire between the 2 groups. But the deal went off when El Hawthi and the Government mutually accused each other of not having the intentions to stop their provocative actions and fights 63“Tribes, Government, and History in Yemen” Paul Dresch, Oxford University Press.

between them. In 2009 a new round broke out when the Hawthi aggressively attacked Saudia Arabia borders and seized some parts of its land. This embarked KSA to go into full war with the Hawthi and used its lethal weapons against them. Some analysts also claim that the Hawthi didnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t really attack the Saudi border but KSA intervened to counter what is believed to be Iranian, which is a Shia majority state, support to the Hawthi group.64

Arms smuggling across Yemeni borders The arms Smuggling process taking place in the horn of Africa and across the Red sea, has drawn attention to a major problem which is developing to be a great threat to stability of the whole middle East region , the horn of Africa and to international system. These smuggling operations are believed to have been empowering terrorist groups in many of the troubled countries including Yemen which may be considered as a main transit for the spread of these arms along many countries. In the middle of bad economic conditions arms smuggling appears to be a very tempting act in order to make much money. In fact smugglers include different kinds of Yemeni army officers, tribesmen and terrorists who all benefit financially from this smuggling process. The attention of the international community attention is now being drawn to arms smuggling and particularly what is taking place between the three troubled countries Yemen, Somalia and Eritrea. Smuggling has satisfied a lot of needs of specific groups in each country. Yemen is considered a great market for arms. These arm sales go to the armed opposition groups as when the war broke out with El Hawthi. Another beneficiary from these arms sales was In fact, El Qaeda in Yemen and El Shabab in Somalia who have clearly pledged cooperation in the arms sales aspect. This deal has served both parties, the El Qaeda in Yemen which used these arms to extend their attacks to Saudi Arabia, Red sea and in ofcorse Yemen. El Shabab in Somalia, who is targeting to throw out the weak transitional government and substitute it by an Islamic regime, used the arms to escalate their own war. Eritrea also played an important receiver and seller of these arms to Yemen, Somalia and Ethiopia. It was sanctioned by the US before, but it seems that Eritrea has no intensions to stop such empowerment of the conflicting groups in the neighboring countries. This is a grave threat that wound escalate the situation in the area and cause severe deterioration.65

Yemen and exacerbating Piracy 64 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aujvgTAIlR5s 65 http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=471

Piracy is another threat that appeared as a result of the same consequences mentioned above, that threatens the US interest and affects the shipment paths for trade, maritime transport, off shore drilling and exploration in the Red Sea and the Gulf for Aden. About 20000 ship passes yearly through the Red Sea threatened to be hijacked and confiscated by the pirates. It exists and mainly performed by Somali people in parts where the government have no control over these parts, parts that are mainly controlled by armed militant groups mainly ElShabab. Sources say that pirates of Somalia give El Shabab group about 50% of the revenues of the successful hijacking operations. Although Yemen always intend to appear as a part of the solution to the problem of the piracy, Yemen is in fact is engaged in this problem if not now then there is nothing could prevent it from being so in the near future. The weak government, deepened marginalization and bad economic status, El Hawthi, south rebels and importantly ElQaeda in Yemen with its coordination with El Shabab militant group in Somalia are the main reason behind the belief that Yemen is engaged in such processes.

Al Qaeda working in Yemen The roots of El Qaeda go back to the 1980s, when a war sparked between the Soviet Union and Afghanistan during which the Yemeni government, as many other Islamic governments in KSA, Egypt and Indonesia, decided to respond to the call of Jihad and sent hundreds of its men to fight. Osama Bin Laden was one of the Arab who joined the cause in Afghanistan and orchestrated the transfer of huge amounts of money to the Mujahedeen as he was a member of one of the richest families in the gulf. In the late years of war, Bin Laden started to form a new organization constituted of Muslim radicals with global goals of fighting those who Bin Laden and his fellows thought were endangering Islam, and called it “Al Qaeda”. After the soviet withdrawal and the end of the Cold War few years later, the Arab Mujahedeen led by Bin Laden searched for a new target. Since America was strongly supporting Israel as well as preserving troops in the Arabian Peninsula, it became the perfect new target to shoot at. Al Qaeda follows an ideology that considers all non-Muslims as enemies and must convert to Islam or be deemed as enemies, fought and killed. They also consider many Muslims to be not true Muslims which justifies killing them which includes almost all of the Arab leaders who don’t abide by Al Qaeda interpretation of Islam. In order to achieve its goals, al Qaeda fights America and the west by exploiting each and every point of weakness that might appear vulnerable to attacks. Al Qaeda is headed by Osama Bin Laden its founder and main financial and ideological contributor aided by many aides from many different countries. Al Qaeda is in

alliance with many terrorist groups in the world who are seeking to benefit from the experience and different kinds of aid granted by the Al Qaeda. From 1992 till 1996, it’s believed that Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda operated from Sudan where they created a parallel economy funding various projects and investing millions in Sudan which made the Sudanese government welcome him. In Sudan, he was joined by members of similar organizations from different countries which drove Sudan to many problems and Bin Laden became a burden so he was eventually told to leave Sudan. At the same moment, Taliban was entering the Afghani scene as the most powerful political party in Afghanistan. Taliban needed money and bin Laden needed a safe haven, so they both met at the perfect moment. Bin Laden orchestrated the operations of Al Qaeda from Afghanistan till the 2001 attacks in America. America accused Bin Laden of being responsible for the attacks after which America started the war on terror and invaded Afghanistan and Taliban was ousted and Bin Laden had to hide for a while. After that America went through a raging war against Al Qaeda and its leaders, in 2004 the American Government announced that since 2001 two thirds of Al Qaeda leaders were either arrested or killed. As a result Bin Laden and Al Qaeda leaders were Forced to search for a new haven to overview their operations from.66 The roots of Al Qaeda in Yemen began later in the 1990s, when the South separatists’ movement has gained momentum and threatened the Yemen unity, Saleh sought the help of the extremist Jihadists, who came back from the Afghan war and were treated as heroes, to crush the rebels of the south and to rock the Godless Marxist down whom they massacred. They quickly began increasing at a fast rate recruiting many from areas torn by war as Afghanistan especially after the 2001 war and the fall of Al Qaeda there, as well as Iraq, Pakistan and countries of the horn of Africa citing about 300,000 refugees who came to Yemen as the gate to the richer gulf countries, hundreds of them Joined El Qaeda in Yemen. Al Qaeda recent emergence in Yemen formally began in 2009 after the prison break of Naser El Waishi who is one of the 23 persons who escaped from a Yemeni prison in 2006 and was arrested after that. El Waishi began to regroup Al Qaeda members with the help of Bin Laden who entrusted many of his loyal men to establish El Qaeda branch In Yemen, recruit many Yemeni men as well as others who fled Saudi Arabia, Somalia (El shabab & the Islamic courts), Pakistan, Iraq and Afghanistan thirsty for Jihad. By the merger of Al Qaeda in Yemen and that of Saudi Arabia, the birth of AQAP (Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) has been announced. Ever since the merger; AQAP has been growing at a really fast rate. They even succeeded in recruiting some American citizens, a group known as the “blonde haired blue eyed types” of ten American men, who traveled to Yemen, 66 “Al Qaeda: Profile and Threat Assessment” Kenneth Katzman, Congressional Research Services.

married Yemeni women and successfully been radicalized and submitted to El Qaeda to begin performing attacks against their homeland. AQAP emergence in lawless Yemen has created a new enemy for the US that is threatening not only the US homeland but also its assets abroad as well as US military bases in a number of the Middle Eastern countries as manifest by the 2000 bombing of the US navy ship U.S.S Cole at the Yemeni port of Aden. In Saudia Arabia, AQAP has threatened chaos in one of the major countries in the region through its continuous and numerous attacks, some of them targeting the royal family itself. Yemen’s strategic location as the Joint venture between the Red sea and the Indian Ocean as well as being the south gate to the Suez Canal has served AQAP in threatening the security of the world major energy resources as the Mandab strait in Aden is one of the most strategic shipping lanes in the world besides threatening the global economic and trading systems.67 The US excessive drawn attention to Yemen as a potential safe haven for terrorism began by the Christmas bombing attempt on December 2009 when a 23 Nigerian man attempted to bomb a Detroit bound jet. This Nigerian man claimed to have been trained in AQAP (Alqaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) camps in Yemen and was provided by the needed explosives for the operation by leaders of AQAP. AQAP has announced its responsibility for other numerous attacks, the two bombing attacks on the US embassy in Sana’a, bombing of the Japanese and the French oil tanker, Limburg as well as the assassination attempt of the Saudi prince Mohammed Ibn Nayef in 2009. Many CIA analysts confirm that Al Qaeda in Yemen has surpassed its parent organization in Afghanistan and Pakistan to become the most eminent and urgent threat to the American security.68 Al Qaeda in Yemen has been closely related to terrorists groups in Somalia, mainly Al Shabab group which is classified by the US by being a terrorist group. Al shabab group has announced its willingness to fully support Al Qaeda in Yemen with all what is needed whether arms, funds, experience and manpower to overthrow the elected government and continue its operations in the area. This explains the fleeing of hundreds of Somali refugees who have been trained and well equipped in camps of Al Shabab and Al Qaeda in Somalia and Eritrea. When Al 67 “Exploiting Grievances Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula” Alistar Harris, Carnegie Endowment. 68 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/30/world/middleeast/30yemen.html

Shabab in Somalia decided to attack its weak transitional government, they sought the Al Qaeda in Yemen to support them and the same happens the other way round. In October 2010, two explosive packages were intercepted in Dubai and London, and the packages were on their way from Yemen to USA. The AQAP operating from Yemen declared its responsibility and declared the “Thousand Cut Strategy”. The strategy is aimed at hurting the American economy using multiple small scale operations. The strategy is based on exploiting the fear which results from terrorist attacks to destabilize the conditions and the security of the target country. Consequently, many countries as well as America, decided to ban cargo flights coming from Yemen. In February 2011, the ban was lift after security upgrades in Yemeni airports using American aids.69

Yemeni governmental double dealing Though the huge cooperation between the US and the Yemeni government, the Yemeni government ambiguously tends to turn a blind eye to extremists, as long as they don’t cause trouble, claiming that AQAP is the least of Yemen threats. Shaykh Abd al Majid al Zindani, the leader of ElIman University in Sana’a who is considered a main recruiter for hundreds of students, including some foreigner students, convincing them to join Al Qaeda, whom the government refuses to deliver to the US hands , has been a cause of a friction between the US and Yemen. Also some intelligence agencies claim that during investigations and interrogations with terrorists, the Yemeni government and intelligence systems refuse to fully cooperate with the CIA agents. Many believe that Yemen counterterrorism efforts are always tied to how much is being given as aids and that the unwillingness of the government to complete the elimination of Al Qaeda is their excuse for sucking more money from the US. On other aspect, many believe that when US pressure upon the Yemeni government decreases, it tends to ease its counterterrorism efforts against Al Qaeda for the aim of rebalancing competing domestic powers inside Yemen, between Al Qaeda and the southern movement as well as the northern Hawthi. 70 This was demonstrated when in 2010, AQAP stated that it formed a front to fight the Shiite Hawthi rebels in the north under the pretext of defending Sunni Muslims in Yemen.

Yemeni Detainees in Guantanamo 69 http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/meast/11/05/yemen.security.concern/?hpt=T2 70 “Yemen: Current Conditions and U.S. Relations” Alfred B. Prados and Jeremy M. Sharp.

Guantanamo prison is one of the most secure prisons all over the world where America holds those who are accused of committing the deadliest terrorist attacks. Many of the detainees in Guantanamo are Yemeni citizens as out of the 198 detainees in January, 2010, 90 were Yemeni. Guantanamo was established in 2002 after 9/11 attacks and its detainees are deprived of their rights. In America, there are many voices calling for the closure of Guantanamo being a symbol of inhuman brutality. This pops out a question which is where shall the Guantanamo detainees go to after?! The American government has already transferred 12 inmates to be imprisoned in Yemeni prison, but shockingly all of them were released after a short while and they continued their activity within the Al Qaeda71. Besides, even if the Yemeni authorities try to keep them in detention, the prisoners have the will and the means to escape the loose Yemeni security measures as what happened when 23 inmates escaped in 2006.72

American citizens Helping Al Qaeda in Yemen The Al Qaeda was able to recruit several American citizens, which imposes a grave threat. Al Qaeda American members are far more dangerous than other Al Qaeda members of other origins as those American members can easily enter America as well as normally interact with the community without being noticed. Some suggest that those members must be treated as regular Al Qaeda members, fiercely hunted, imprisoned or even killed. They argue that those members are a grave threat to the lives of many other Americans both at home and abroad. On the other side, many claim that those are American citizens who enjoy American rights and the American government should try its best to bring them back home. When the Nigerian 23 year old boy tried to commit suicidal attack on the American airliner, it was his father, who went to the authorities and reported that his son went to Yemen and trained in Al Qaeda camps. If this man couldn’t trust the authorities to keep his son safe, he wouldn’t have reported.73

American interference in Yemen With the growing power and destruction ability of Al Qaeda, The US targeted cooperation with the Yemeni government in its fight against Al Qaeda especially after the 71 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/05/AR2010010502850.html

72 “The Dilemma of the Yemeni Detainees at Guantanamo Bay”, Gregory D. Johnsen and Christopher Boucek. 73 http://www.newsweek.com/2009/09/29/homecoming.html

bombing of the U.S.S Cole in 2001. The Yemeni government showed it willingness to cooperate with the US through allowing the entrance of limited US Special Forces and intelligence agencies aiming at the rooting up Al Qaeda leaders. The US was also allowed to undertake ground and air strikes targeting Al Qaeda leaders. Through these operations, in 2002 the US succeeded in killing Qaid Salem El Haithi, the planner of the bombing attack of the U.S.S Cole along with other Qaida members. In 2009 US continued its more than 2 dozen strikes against terrorists. It targeted at engaging the Yemeni government for further intelligence information sharing, training, equipments and technical support for its army and its strikes against Al Qaeda. The US even offered to send more troops to assist the army but this proposal has been rejected by the Yemeni government, reasoning it by the suspicious and uneasy look of the Yemeni people towards the presence of excessive American troops in their country. Yemen is now being named Obama’s war, as it is a low level war being elicited by the orders of Obama to exterminate Al Qaeda members.74 75 Yemen, along with the US, has cooperated to ensure security through assigning some coast guards over some oil facilities and sites of great importance as the Bab El Mandab strait. It also helped enhance the security assistance aids to Yemen by more than what is given to Pakistan. This is besides increasing the economic and military aids to 53$ billion including 12.5$million for military aid only. Obama administration which considers Yemen its first priority, has been seeking for further significant increases reaching 63$ million besides what is being given to Yemen for long term development and stabilization needs. With some experts believing it might be the next Afghanistan. Many analysts, including both American and European ones, push for more American involvement in Yemen which would mount to direct military intervention citing direct preemptive attacks against Al Qaeda camps in Yemen. Yemen can’t be allowed to become another Afghanistan with Yemeni planed 9/11 attacks. Besides, Yemeni can’t be entrusted with either economic or military aid due to its record of double dealing, inefficiency and exploitation. On the other side, many argue that the Middle East is already a volatile area and its population haven’t yet recovered from the hard time when America attacked Iraq in 2003. Besides, the American military is already over stretched with war in Afghanistan and still many forces kept in Iraq. Giving the Yemeni government aid is the best possible choice, they say, but that msut coincide with American insistence monitoring of how its aid is being used.76 74 “Obama's War On Yemen”, Stephen Lendman. 75 http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503543_162-20005954-503543.html 76 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704125604575450162714867720.html

Gulf Cooperation Council relations with Yemen The neighboring Gulf countries are the ones most likely to be affected by the chaos in Yemen. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is a 23 year old economic and security alliance that groups Saudia Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman. GCC members are rich countries with many concerns and interests in Yemen being their neighbor and the gate of their oil to the red sea. Yemen and Saudi Arabia have long historical relations. Saudi Arabia has always influenced decision making in Yemen due to the fact that Saudi Arabia is a rich powerful country bordered by the Yemen which is a poor troubled country. Riyadh has always thought that as long as Yemen is in severe need for Saudi Arabia, this would make Yemen easier to be politically controlled and manipulated. Yemeni weak government is still dependent on the aid that is being delivered to the Yemeni government for the aim of achieving stability in the region and fighting militant groups. With the increasing instability in Yemen attributed to the presence of El Hawthi and Al Qaeda, Saudi Arabia has been supporting the Yemeni government in hampering their activities for the fear that these groups may go easily for terrorist attempts along the unsecured borders or within the Saudi Arabia territory. Saudi Arabia strongly connects El Hawthi and Al Qaeda in Yemen, believing that growing power of Al Hawthi and their disturbing acts enhance the transfer of Al Qaeda militants to Saudi Arabia and the smuggling of weapons and explosives that are needed for Al Qaeda attacks in the gulf countries and Saudi Arabia. In 2009, a massive military response was taken by the Saudi forces against Al Hawthi, when they attacked a Saudi border checkpoint and took control of some parts within the Saudi territory. The Saudi government quickly responded by excessive air strikes targeting the elimination of Al Hawthi units from the seized parts in Saudi and others, near borders. It also placed navy forces on the northwest corner of Yemen to prevent the arms smuggling to Al Hawthi. The Saudi finally seized their strikes as they believed to have to a great extent secured their borders and delivered a harsh message not only to the Al Hawthi but to Al Qaeda as well. One more thing is that KSA now views Iran as its strategic enemy in the region. They both compete for influence in the Middle East. KSA fears that Iran might support the Al Hawthi, both are Shia Muslim, which would make Yemen another Lebanon and Al Hawthi new Hezbollah. If this happen, it would be a grave danger as the Saudi most important asset, which is oil, passes through the Mandab Strait in its way to the Suez canal and the West and America afterwards. Iran with a proxy Al Hawthi in Yemen would be present the possibility of blocking the Gulf both at its beginning at the Iranian mainland and its end at Yemen which Irans threatens to do in case of any American aggression. 77 77 â&#x20AC;&#x153;Yemen in Crisis: Consequences for the Horn of Africaâ&#x20AC;?, Alexander Atarodi.

For all these reasons KSA along with the GCC are expected to try their best to stabilize Yemen in order to sustain the regional stability and balance. These attempts of stabilization are expected to include financial aid as well as security assistance that may mount to full military intervention.

Iranian role in Yemen The Yemen-Iranian relation is really a complex one with many interrelated as well as conflicting players. Although many think that Iran is supporting the anti- government, Al Hawthi group only from a political aspect, many evidences appear revealing the cards hidden under the table of the Revolutionary Iran. Iranian relations with the Shiite Al Hawthi have always been believed to be based on political support exploiting religious ties and mounting to financial and military assistance. Many have attributed this support to its willingness to establish a dependent state that would be a good ally. Other theory came out claiming that the Iranian support for Al Hawthi is nothing but a pressure card upon Iran competitors in the region, Saudi Arabia and the USA as well as a way to emphasize the growing power of Iran in the Middle East region in the face of the whole world which gives a needed prestigious state. This has been proven in 2009, when the Yemeni government announced the naval capture of an arms-carrying Iranian vessels heading to the Al Hawthi rebels assisting them in their fights against their government and the claimed aggression against Saudi Arabia. Intelligence reports have also assured that Iran has also engaged in secret meetings with high ranking members from Al Hawthi and Hezbollah aiming at cooperation between the three in military operations and further escalation on the borders of the Iranian competitor in the region, Saudi Arabia. Yemen government has repeatedly claimed that Iranian camps existing in Eritrea have been receiving Yemeni citizens belonging to Al Hawthi. Those Yemeni are well trained in these camps and spiritually advised and taught by Shiite Iranian or Lebanon leaders and after they finish, they head back to Yemen for joining the Al Hawthi rebels. Also, in 2010, a Yemeni court charged four Yemenis with spying for Iran and securing weapons and money for the Shiite Hawthi Group.78 On the political aspect, Iran hasnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t missed a chance without emphasizing on the aggressive actions taken by the Yemeni government against Al Hawthi based on religious affiliation as well as criticizing the unacceptable continual interference of the Saudi Arabia in Yemen affaires. Iran has condemned the Yemeni strikes against Al Hawthi claiming that these strikes led to the suffering and death of women and children and that this aggression is completely inhumane. It also didnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t miss condemning Saudi Arabia for its military action through its air raids against the Shiite Muslims of Yemen. Furthermore, the US had its share as well from the Iranian 78 http://yemenpost.net/Detail123456789.aspx?ID=3&SubID=3136&MainCat=3

condemnation for its continuous intervening in Yemeni affaires especially the military interference.79

79 â&#x20AC;&#x153;Iranian leaders weigh support for the Houthi rebellion in Yemenâ&#x20AC;?, Babak Rahimi.

Finale The Middle East has always been and will always be the heart of the world. In human recorded history, each civilization has always been trying to have a good position in the Middle East which would then allow it to have a prominent state in the history. This made the Middle East the stage where superpowers act, in all possible ways, to get the applause of history writers. All of this made the Middle East an extremely volatile region with many crises erupting all the time. Today is no difference from the past days. In the past century, after stabilization of the European scene, America and the Soviet Union took their turn to act on the Middle Eastern theatre. Curtains came down on the Soviet Union while America emerged as the sole superpower in the world. Nonetheless, there were many regional players in the Region that America had to tame. With Egypt dwindling in its domestic dilemma and Iraq savaged by the hands of both its sons and the foreigners, the Middle East wished for some peace, but the world is never that generous. Today, Yemen is playing its part within the frame of a new play. America is supposed to react fast and decisively otherwise its losses would be unimaginable. On its way to react, America must put in mind many factors that govern the situation not only in Yemen, the Middle East but in the world as a whole. Al Qaeda has proved persistence and determination in seeking its goals, which should make America, imply more effort to get rid of its threat, once and for good. America canâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t afford forgetting that Al Qaeda is only one of the many problems endangering Yemen. All the other problems must be simultaneously addressed in order to prevent Yemen from falling into the hands of Chaos. America doesnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t have to search much to figure out that it is not alone on the stage. America is surrounded by many allies as well as many rivals. Harmonizing the efforts of both America and its allies is most likely to produce the most successful finale that would be heard of everywhere in the world as an example of American resolution. America should also try to minimize the actions of its rivals, inorder to prevail as the winner of this one more conflict.

Model American Congress

Committee on Finance â&#x20AC;Śâ&#x20AC;Ś.. Hold Your Stance Congressional Research Service Report Prepared By: Chairman: Mohamed Bakeer Vice -Chair: Menna Magdy Ranking Member: Ahmed Amin Party Consultant: Hadeer Maged

“I don’t think that any economist disputes that we’re in the worst economic crisis since the great depression. The good news is that we’re getting a consensus around what needs to be done.” -Barack Obama.

Table of Contents

A glance about the Committee on Finance

First Topic: Post Financial Crisis Reform - The Financial Crisis and its aftermath - What was the reaction? A- Quantitative Easing 2â&#x20AC;Ś. The detested unappreciated program still in action. - What does Quantitative easing 2 mean? - Mechanism of Quantitative easing 1- The proposed program - Quantitative easing 1 - Quantitative easing 2 - Rational behind Quantitative easing 2 2- A double edged weapon - Negative side - Positive side 3- Quantitative easing .. Pro& Con

B- U.S pending free trade agreements. - Introduction 1- U.S Colombian pending free trade agreement - Background - Treaty outcomes - Problems and concerns - Conclusion 2- U.S Panama Pending free trade agreement - Introduction - USA & Panama throughout history 1- Panamanian Political System 2- Early U.S. & Panama Economic relations - The Current TPA( trade promotion agreement)

The proposed FTA and its impact on the US market

Concerning market access

 2-

Concerning agricultural trade

 34-

A case study on the market access A case study on agriculture trade

Concerning intellectual property rights Concerning Labor and Environment

 Labor  Environment C- Social Security Privatization. A- Introduction - Historical background - Social Security Act. - The Importance of the program - Cost of living allowances. - Obstacles faces social security program. B-

Privatization as a tool.

General structure of personal accounts.

Comparing the difference between personal accounts and direct government investment.

Second Topic: The Economic and Political Embargo over Cuba. IWhat does Embargo mean? II- An overall view on the Cuban Case: A- Political Conditions. - Cuban Political system. - Human rights in Cuba and U.S role.  Human rights track in Cuba.  U.S and its role in supporting human rights and democracy in Cuba. 1- Concerning human rights. 2- Concerning democracy. - Funding for Cuban broadcasting. B- Economic Conditions.

- An overview on the economic embargo. I-U.S Financing restrictions and its impact on the agriculture sector: a- An overview on the agricultural sector in Cuba. b- Agricultural exports and sanctions.  Major sanctions - The aftermath of the agricultural restrictions on certain commodities  An overview on the Cuban entire market. Cuban Major Products. Cuban major imported commodities. Major suppliers. USA as a leading supplier. - Estimated effects of removing U.S. financing restrictions on U.S. agriculture exports to Cuba. II- US restrictions on travel and its double impacts. 1- Overview - Bush administration - Obama administration 2- Effects of travel restrictions to Cuba 3- Effects of travel restrictions on the agriculture sector

About the Committee on Finance The Committee on Finance is one of the original committees created in the US Senate. It was originally established in 1815 as a select committee formed to solve economic issues arising from the War of 1812. It was not till December 10, 1816, when the Senate officially designated the Committee on Finance a standing committee. The Committee had power over certain aspects of tariffs, banking and currency issues and appropriations. The Committee’s jurisdiction has fluctuated throughout the years, as its jurisdiction over appropriations and banking and currency issues has been suspended. Jurisdiction: The Finance Committee’s jurisdiction is defined by subject matter; not by agency or Department. The Committee’s Jurisdiction includes issues such as: taxation and other revenue measures, bonded debt of the United States; collection districts, and ports entry and delivery; customs, reciprocal trade agreements; tariff and import quotas,

and related matters thereto; general revenue sharing; the transportation of dutiable goods; deposit of public moneys; health programs under the Social Security Act, including Medicare, Medicaid, the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) and other health and human services programs financed by a specific tax or trust fund; and national social security. As a consequence of the Committee’s broad subject matter jurisdiction, the Finance Committee has sole or shared jurisdiction over the activities of numerous agencies and offices including: The Executive Office of the President where the committee gives advices on trade policy coordination; The Department of agriculture, where it assists in the adjustment of trade for farmers, and foreign barriers to US agricultural exports; Department of commerce where the committee has a wide range of responsibilities including assisting in economic development, and international trade; Department of Health and Human Services, Department of Homeland Security where the committee controls over the US customs and border protection; Department of Labor, The Department of the Treasury, which is considered one of the most important departments for the Committee on finance; Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC), Social Security Administration (SSA), U.S. Tax Court, and several other boards and committees.80

Subcommittees: The Finance Committee is divided into 5 Subcommittees that allow its members to tackle specific issues within the jurisdiction of the committee. The Chairman and Ranking Member establish the Committee’s subcommittees and membership for each Congressional session, which is still subject to the approval of the whole committee. The Chairman and Ranking Member serve as ex officio members of all subcommittees. The subcommittees of the committee on finance in the 111th congress are:81  Health Care  Taxation, IRS Oversight, and Long-Term Growth  Energy, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure 80 http://finance.senate.gov/about/

81 http://www.senate.gov/general/committee_membership/committee_memberships_SSFI.htm#SSFI12 80

ď&#x201A;ˇ Social Security, Pensions, and Family Policy ď&#x201A;ˇ International Trade, Customs, and Global Competitiveness

Current Committee: The Current Committee on finance has twenty three members, 13 democratic majority members and 10 republican Minority members. A Democratic Chair, Senator Max Baucus, and a Republican Ranking Member, Senator Charles Grassley.82

Topic 1 Post Financial Crisis Reform: The Financial Crisis and its aftermath. The classic explanation of financial crises, going back hundreds of years, is that they are caused by excess which lead to a boom and an inevitable bust. In the recent crisis, there was a housing boom and bust, which in turn led to financial turmoil in the United States and other countries. In the recent crisis, monetary excesses were the main cause of that boom and the resulting bust which subsequently lead to the crisis in the USA.

82 http://www.govtrack.us/congress/committee.xpd?id=SSFI

Starting in 2001 in the United States, actual interest rate decisions fell well below what historical experience would suggest policy should be. It thus provides an empirical measure that monetary policy was too easy during this period, or too “loose fitting”. This was an unusually big deviation from the Taylor rule, the rule which policy makers used to determine their policies regarding the interest rates. There has been no greater or more persistent deviation from the Taylor rule in Fed policy since the turbulent days of the 1970s. So there is clearly evidence of monetary excesses during the period leading up to the housing boom. The unusually low interest rate decisions were, of course, made with careful consideration by monetary policy makers. One can interpret them as purposeful deviations from the “regular” interest rate settings based on the usual macroeconomic variables. These actions were thus effectively open government interventions in that they deviated from the regular way of conducting policy in order to address a specific problem, in particular, a fear of deflation, as had occurred in Japan in the 1990s.

The line labeled “counterfactual” in Chart 2 is what a statistically estimated model of housing starts suggests would have happened had interest rates followed the Taylor rule; clearly, there would not have been such a big housing boom and bust. Hence, Chart 2 provides empirical evidence that the unusually low interest rate policy was a factor in the housing boom. One can challenge this conclusion, of course, by challenging the model, but an advantage of using a model and an empirical counterfactual is that one has a formal framework for debating the issue. Not shown in Chart 2 is the associated boom and bust in housing prices in individual states. The boom-bust was evident throughout most of the country, but was worse in California, Florida, Arizona, and Nevada. The only exceptions were in states such as Texas and Michigan, where local factors offset the monetary excess stressed here. 83 Source: The Economist, 18 October 2007

Although the housing boom was the most noticeable effect of the monetary excesses, effects also could be seen in more gradually rising overall prices: CPI inflation, for example, averaged 3.2 per cent at an annual rate well above the 2 per cent target suggested by many policy-makers. It is always difficult to predict the exact initial impacts of monetary shocks, but housing was also a volatile part of GDP in the 1970s, another period of monetary instability before the onset of the Great Moderation. The monetary policy followed during the Great Moderation had the advantages of keeping both the overall economy stable and the inflation rate low. As a result of the housing and credit boom in the United States, leading to large increase in the prices of houses, many mortgage firms were encouraged to relax the collaterals they used to ask for before giving a loan. Consequently, the number of financial agreements called mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDO), which derived their value from mortgage payments and housing prices greatly increased, which enabled institutions and investors around the world to invest in the U.S. housing market. Due to the weak collaterals and giving loans with high default risk, many individuals couldn't afford paying back their loans and all that remained with the mortgage firms were houses, which resulted in a sharp decline in their prices. As housing prices declined, major global financial institutions that had borrowed and invested heavily in sub-prime MBS reported significant losses. Defaults and losses on other loan types also increased significantly as the crisis expanded from the housing market to other parts of the economy. When Lehman Brothers and other large financial institutions have fallen in late 2008, the crisis hit a climax. During a two day period in September 2008, $150 billion were withdrawn from USA money funds. In a period when the average two day outflow had been $5 billion. In effect, the money market was subject to a bank run. This credit freeze brought the global financial system to the brink of collapse. This started to show its effects in August 2007 and into 2008. Stock markets have fallen and, all over the world, large financial institutions have collapsed or been bought out by others. Moreover, governments in even the wealthiest nations have had to come up with rescue packages in order to bail out their financial system. The response of the USA Federal Reserve, and the European Central Bank, was immediate and remarkable. During the last quarter of 2008, these central banks purchased $2.5 trillion of government debt and troubled private assets from banks. This was the largest liquidity injection into the credit market, and the largest monetary policy action, in world history. The USA and other European nations also raised the capital of their national banking systems by $1.5 trillion, by purchasing newly issued preferred stock in their major banks. What was the reaction? Once the financial crisis took place and affected both the US and the world economy radically, the American economists and politicians unleashed their minds in order to snatch USA 83

from this disaster quickly. They thought to create and re-discuss some issues which might help in accelerating the American recovery and reshaping its financial status. The suggested plans have different visions, tools and mechanisms; however all these plans have solely one goal which is how to achieve a quick recovery from the financial crisis. There are a lot of examples concerning what they introduced e.g. cutting portions from the U.S aids to other countries, reshaping their trade policies and prioritizing them, refreshing U.S market through injecting money and recovering its world trade position or what is called â&#x20AC;&#x153;quantitative easing (QE)â&#x20AC;?, opening their social security file to discuss its costs and benefits and also whether it is a priority or not, re-discussing their pending free trade agreements, re-thinking about their economic and political embargo over Cuba..Etc. The following cases are examples which stem from one goal which is how to recover from the financial crisis and how to alleviate its pandemic aftermath. ___________________________________________________________________________________ ____

A- . QuantItatIve easIng 2 â&#x20AC;Ś The detested unappreciated program Still in Action

Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

What does Quantitative Easing 2 (QE2) mean? A government monetary policy occasionally used to increase the money supply by buying government securities or other securities from the market. Quantitative easing increases the money supply by flooding financial institutions with capital in an effort to

promote increased lending and liquidity. Central banks tend to use quantitative easing when interest rates have already been lowered to near 0% levels and have failed to produce the desired effect. The major risk of quantitative easing is that although more money is floating around, there is still a fixed amount of goods for sale. This will eventually lead to higher prices or inflation. 84 In other words, QE is a process by which the central bank can buy long-term bonds with newly created money. However it is a double edged weapon, it applied in many countries all over the world like Japan, Zimbabwe, Germany and UK. Mechanism of Quantitative Easing: Usually, central banks try to raise the amount of lending and activity in the economy indirectly, by cutting interest rates. Lower interest rates encourage people to spend, not save. But when interest rates can go no lower, a central bank's only option is to pump money into the economy directly. That is quantitative easing (QE). The way the central bank does this is by buying assets - usually financial assets such as government and corporate bonds - using money it has simply created out of thin air. The institutions selling those assets (either commercial banks or other financial businesses such as insurance companies) will then have "new" money in their accounts, which then boosts the money supply.

the ProPosed Program After accomplishing the first round of the mentioned program (Quantitative Easing 1) the Federal Reserve on the tongue of its chairman Ben Bernanke announced a second round at Jackson Hole on August 27th.

84 - http://www.investopedia.com

1- Quantitative Easing 1: During the depth of the Financial Crisis, Federal Reserve announced its first round of the estimated Quantitative easing program specifically from December 2008 to March 2010. The Fed bought $1.7 trillion of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities. The move is widely credited with helping to pull the economy out of a freefall by lowering the yields on those securities, pushing down the interest rates for consumer, mortgage and business borrowing. New York Fed economists have estimated that the purchases lowered longer-term Treasury yields by about half a percentage point, an effect they say translated into lower rates across private credit markets and higher asset prices.85 The first phase was surrounded by a clear target amount. The Federal Reserve mentioned purchase of up to 600$ billion in assets in November 2008 and expanded that goal in March 2009 to $1.75 trillion of Treasury debt, mortgage-backed securities and debt backed by government-sponsored enterprises such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. 2. Quantitative Easing 2 (QE 2): After accomplishing the first round FED chairman Ben Bernanke announced a second round at Jackson Hole on August 27th.Hardly had Bernanke announced the second round, many US- economists and politicians unleashed their skepticisms and criticisms. The second dose of QE is estimated by 600$ billion of Treasuries between now and next June, at about $75 billion will be injected per month. FED said that it also could adjust the amount and timing if need be because of the absence of any legal restriction. ď&#x201A;ˇ

Rational behind QE2:

Due to the weakness status of the US economy, however keeping the interest rate low. Besides that the fed has not met its target concerning decreasing the unemployment and inflation rate so that the officials believe that if they post money throughout purchasing securities from domestic market it might relieve the suffering economy by giving incentives to investors. Giving investors incentives- as they hold the largest portion in the securities' cakemight decrease unemployment rate and refresh economy. The US economy is operating far below capacity and is not likely to return to potential output any time soon without some outside boost. The Fed's decision to buy $600billion in government bonds over the next eight months is a step in this direction. â&#x20AC;&#x153;The impact of securities purchases may depend to some 85 - http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/11/03/qa-on-qe2-what-a-fed-move-would-mean/

extent on the state of financial markets and the economy, For example, such purchases seem likely to have their largest effects during periods of economic and financial stress, when markets are less liquid and term premiums are unusually high.”- Ben Bernanke.

A Double Edged Weapon Quantitative easing program considered to be a double edged weapon because of its negative wing and its positive one. The Negative Side: Nobody whether inside or outside the fed can speculate the specific risk behind adopting a new round of QE as we can build a lot of results upon one reason but no one knows what would be the real effect?. Despite being absent, some risks could be mentioned. The real effect would be on the US dollar as printing more money will lead to decreasing the value of the dollar which would increase inflation rate as no more goods will be produced to meet the created money. However, it would devaluate the US dollar and maximizing inflation, the reversal effect of devaluating the dollar would be on the foreign exports of USA. One of the main reasons behind taking this decision is "currencies war". China is devaluating and manipulating its Yuan against the USD; which means pushing Yuan low while keeping dollar high which would causes trade deficit between USA and China is in favor of China because of the lower prices of Chinese goods in US market. 

Other countries complain that QE is merely bringing to them overvalued currencies and bubbly asset markets by pushing investors to seek higher returns elsewhere. But that may be unavoidable given their divergent growth paths.86



The "problem" in the U.S. economy is not a lack of credit or high costs of credit: the problem is too much debt and the fact that there is no market demand which requires expanding business. Indeed, everyone already has everything, and replacement of existing goods in a bloated consumer economy cannot generate GDP growth of 3-5% a year. Rather, replacement instead of expansion means the GDP will contract by 3-5% each year--a fact

86 http://www.economist.com/node/17417742

that is already visible if you removed the 12% of the economy that is Federal spending generated by the $1.6 trillion annual Federal deficit.87 

Bernanke's policies have fostered the belief that the Fed and Treasury will backstop any losses suffered by the big players. Moral hazard has been destroyed along with interest earned by cash. If the big banks suffer losses due to gambling, they know the Fed will rescue them by buying the toxic assets from them, all in the name of "quantitative easing." 88



Bank of England in its quantitative easing plan estimated a clear target that the bank will sell the purchased securities again after achieving economic balance but US case is not clear enough.



By doing so, the fed would face a wide political pressure if the proposed program failed which means derogation from its legal independence.



A 15% rise in prices over the next four years because of the expected inflation.

The Positive Side: 

House prices will rise roughly in step with inflation. A 15% rise in prices over the next four years would pull many people out from being under water with their mortgages and personal debt. It would add trillions of dollars to homeowners' wealth89



Recently, China and Russia announced that they will no longer use the dollar in their bilateral trade, but instead they will use Yuan and ruble. The latest deal considered a further threatens to the dollar's reserve currency status. The dollar has this status due to its current status as the currency of international trade. Since 1992 Dollar has been the official trade currency between China and Russia that is because when parties in any international trade or even domestic trade agreement have the right to agree on the specific currency by which their business will be settled in. The dollar reserve currency status allows the U.S. to run up high deficits and have its debt be denominated in the U.S. dollar, which in turn enables it to print unlimited dollars and inflate its way out of debt. America, understandably, wants to protect these privileges.90 The quantitative easing might alleviate from that impact on U.S. dollar by decreasing its value to meet the international trade competitiveness. Besides that

87- 5http://www.businessinsider.com/quantitative-easing-fail-spectacularly-2010-10#ixzz1691kyL1k 88 89 http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2010/nov/08/useconomy-quantitative-easing 90 http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/85424/20101124/china-russia-drop-dollar.htm

China is able to maximize the deficit in trade with USA by buying dollars through the U.S. treasury to keep it strong so that for the interest of USA to achieve the second round of QE. ď&#x201A;ˇ

QE is likely to have much effect on small business because of lowering the dollar might find its aftermath on widening and improving U.S exports. Qe Pros & Cons Fed chairman and his crew believe that adopting the second round of quantitative easing will end the bad consequences of the financial crisis or at least alleviate its aftermath on U.S. economy. Besides that it might rebalance the trade competitiveness with the other countries especially China because of its keen steps to withdraw the floor from the dollar and yield to other currencies. On the other hand, some critics are concerned that the first round of QE did not accomplish its goal, and argue that the USA is still suffering from the pandemic effects of the crisis. So that what would the second round introduce to U.S economy? What would be the next step on the subject of quantitative easing program, either adopting it with its harms and benefits, or disregarding it and losing the benefits which might improve U.S. economy?

_____________________________________________________________________________________ ________

b. us PendIng Free trade agreement Introduction: In theory, free trade agreements are considered among the most effective methods in promoting economic growth among countries through its remarkable features of elimination or lowering of the customs, tariffs, and other economic regulations to increase the flow of exports among the signing countries. Free trade agreement from the point of the proponents views mainly help to create numerous job opportunities, new markets, and higher economic welfare. However, other experts stated that it may lead to the poverty of a major number of citizens and increase the riches of certain multinational cooperation.91

91 http://www.witnessforpeace.org/downloads/Col_FTA_factsheet.pdf. accessed on October 27/2010

1. US-Colombia Free Trade Agreement: Background:

The United States-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement, which is also known as ‘The Colombia Free Trade Agreement’ (CFTA) was signed by President George Bush on 22 November 2006. This agreement is a comprehensive one, in which all service sectors are covered except where Colombia has made specific exceptions. When the agreement is enforced, both countries will be obliged to eliminate all the tariffs on their exports to each other, furthermore, the agreement will include many restrictions and regulation concerning the administration of the trade, customs, government procurement, intellectual property rights, labor, and environmental protection. One of the expected results of the enforcement is that USA companies will be granted access to Colombian markets by means of eliminating tariffs on 80 percent of U.S. consumer, industrial and agricultural exports which include beef, cotton, wheat, soybeans, as well as textiles and clothing. All other goods are destined to become duty-free within 10 years of the agreement’s initial implementation.92

Treaty Outcomes: In case that the agreement is properly enforced and respected by Columbia there will be promising consequences according to the principles of the agreement through the following:     

Promoting strong cooperation and friendly ties between both countries Developing better regional economic integration. Raising the living standards and labor conditions on both sides. Promoting trade in the innovative sectors of both economies. Controlling corruption in international trade and investments while taking into consideration the standards of environmental protection.

On the other hand, by enforcing this agreement USA will complete the whole free-trade zone along the Pacific Rim. It will also further stabilize many Latin nations. In addition, this 92 Analysis prepared by Research Associate Gretchen Knoth, June 17Th, 2009. http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/WO0906/S00289.htm. accessed October 27/2010

agreement is considered as a good shield to defend the market-based democracy; since it is the best way to ensure that America will always receive the benefits from the international trade as long as trade liberalization is promoted. In view of the national security issue, the Secretary of Defense Robert Gates noted that Colombia had become “a linchpin of security and prosperity in South America.”(2) This agreement could potentially increase U.S. exports by 13.7 percent or $1.1 billion, contributing $2.5 billion to U.S. GDP, according to the United States International Trade Commission (USITC).93

Problems and Concerns: Two-way trade between the U.S. and Colombia has reached nearly $20 billion. U.S. exports to Colombia rose from $3.6 billion in 2002 to $9.4 billion in 2009, Making Colombia a good partner for the U.S94 However, the two countries are considering the flows and problems of one another before enforcing this agreement. As for Colombia, it has a record of labor and human right violations. According to recent figures, at least 48 trade unionists were murdered in Colombia in 2009, and 49 unionists were murdered in 2008, a 25% increase from 2007 through April 2010. More than 2,700 trade unionists have been assassinated in the last two decades, mostly by right-wing paramilitaries. Colombia has approximately a 96% impunity rate.959697 In March 2008, over 85 Colombian political leaders have been detained for their involvement with paramilitaries, including current and past members of Congress, council members, governors, mayors, state legislators, and the former director of DAS (Colombia’s secrete service).98

93Donna Mills, “Gates Praises Colombia as ‘Exporter of Security,’” American Forces Press Service, April 15, 2010, at http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=58770 (July 9, 2010). Accessed November 3/2010.

94 U.S. Census Bureau, “Foreign Trade Statistics: Trade in Goods (Imports, Exports and Trade Balance) with Colombia,” June10, 2010, at http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c3010.html#2009 (July 9, 2010).

95 http://thf_media.s3.amazonaws.com/2010/pdf/bg2439.pdf. accessed on 11/11/2010 12:51 PM 96 (5)http://thf_media.s3.amazonaws.com/2010/pdf/bg2439.pdf. accessed on 11/11 12:51 PM 97 (6)http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=10656 27 oct. 9:45am 98 http://www.wheatworld.org/2010/07/canada-colombia-fta-puts-critical-u-s-wheat-market-at-risk/.accessed 25OCT 10;00.

After suffering a national collapse in recent years Colombia has witnessed a considerable decrease in violence, crime, poverty, and terrorism. This is due to the progress of the Colombian government, as Uribe the president of Colombia has made impressive progress in ending violence in his country.

Colombia's Progress against Violence

2002 2007 Change

Civilians assassinated by illegal armed groups

2,087 358

-83%

Trade unionists killed

205

-88%

Total terrorist attacks

1,645 381

-77%

Source; Colombian Ministry of Defense and Ministry of Social Protection

The state department announced that the government of Colombia was able to meet the human rights standards as it was a condition for USA's military aid to Colombia. The economy grew at an average of 5 percent in the last four years, it has ballooned from $2.1 billion in 2002 to $6.3 billion in 2006 (a 200 percent increase). Poverty has fallen by 11.9 percentage points to 45 percent during the same period.99 The unemployment rate has fallen from 15 percent to 11 percent.100 All this eventually will lead to better standards of living and social welfare in Colombia.

Conclusion: The agreement threatens that American employees will either be replaced by laborers in Colombia or will be forced to work for lower compensation due to price competition with U.S. laborâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s South American counterparts. The consequences of the agreement on American workers 99 The Economist Intelligence Unit, "Colombia Country Report," October 9, 2007 100 R. Nicholas Burns, under secretary for political affairs, U.S. Department of State, Speech to the Council of the Americas, October 22, 2007.

will likely not only be felt by those employed in small firms, as such expansion could potentially result in increased employment both in Colombia and the United States, although the quality of the jobs could markedly differ. While the agreement certainly does not ensure that both Colombia and the United States will benefit equally, the financial gains at stake for both nations remain considerable. With more comprehensive labor protections, the economic gains deriving from free trade agreement could be realized, but only if Colombiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s leadership can simultaneously work to protect trade union leaders from being assassinated and if a weakening of the rights of organized labor and individual workers does not occur. 101 The goals of this agreement will likely be achieved as long as the Colombian government keeps up the progress respecting the standards and getting over problems that considered as obstacle to the friendship with USA and USA should also put that into consideration.

2- U.S. Panama free trade agreement: Introduction On June 2007, after two and half years of negotiation, the United States and Panama signed a reciprocal or mutual free trade agreement with reservations on environment, labor and intellectual property rights (IPRs) issues. Some statistics say that 88% of US commercial and industrial exports would become duty- free, with remaining tariffs phased out over a ten year period. Approximately 50% of U.S. farms exports to Panama also would achieve immediate duty- free status, with tariffs and tariffs quotes on selected farm products to be phased out by year 17 of the agreement. Panama's FTA is a little bit different from the rest of the pending FTAs with South Korea and Colombia because Panama considered as a "Tax haven" and its refusal to enter into any tax information exchange treaty. Besides the "tax haven" which represents a major concern, the second one is the Panamanian labor statues as the minimum number in order to start a union is 40 so that it would be reduced to 20, per ILO (international labor organization) guidelines.

A- USA& Panama throughout history: 1-

Panamanian political system:

101 This analysis was prepared by Research Associate Gretchen Knoth , June 17th, 2009 http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/WO0906/S00289.htm. Accessed 27 October. 9;15 am

Its official name is the republic of Panama. It is a constitutional state, the president is the head of the executive branch, the legislative branch is vested in the national assembly which is a unicameral council and the judicial power is exercised by the Supreme Court. The current Panamanian president is Ricardo Martinelli and his vice one is Juan Carlos Varela. 2- Early U.S. & Panama economic relations: Since first explored by the Spanish at the turn of the sixteenth century, interest in Panama has centered on its unique geographic characteristic: the slender distance separating the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans Because of the transit possibilities this presented (first for Peruvian gold and other colonial trade), Panama was a natural crossroads for the movement of commerce, a strategic position that grew as the world became ever more traveled and integrated. In fact, Panamaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s destiny became fused to its geography and the foreign interests that sought to take advantage of it particularly the United States. Panama was swept to independence from Spain on November 28, 1821, becoming part of the Gran Colombia regional group. By this point, both the United States and Britain had openly coveted the prospect of an inter-oceanic connector. Well before construction of a canal could begin, the United States displaced Britain as the dominant foreign influence and completed a cross-isthmian railroad in 1855. This project was driven by the westward expansion of the United States, which included anticipated southern water route to the west coast. To secure this transit system, as well as the safety of goods and people using it, the United States resorted to armed intervention in Panama some 14 times in the 19th century. By the time the United States sought a permission to construct a canal, a precedent had already been set to use military force for defense of U.S. interests in Panama.102 Recently, the volume of trade between USA & Panama has witnessed a new era of prosperity and it is among the largest recipients of US foreign direct investment in Latin America. Economic ties between them are controlled mainly by the trade promotion agreement (TPA), the unilateral trade preference provided to panama under the Caribbean basin Economic recovery Act, the Caribbean basin trade partnership Act and the generalized system of preference, under which most imports from Panama enter the United States duty free along with those entering under the normal trade relations schedule. Besides that Panama is willing to achieve a free trade agreement with USA to avoid a direct connect to the existing free trade agreement with US- Dominican republic â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Central America (CAFTA). 102 -

CRS report, the proposed U.S. Panama free trade agreement.

B- The Current TPA( trade promotion) and its main features. There is a trade promotion agreement or TPA between USA and Panama – after adopting by the senate it will be a completely FTA- contains twenty two chapters including( Provisionsdefinitions- rules related to customs- market access-agriculture sector- industry- national treatment- sanitary and phytosanitary – environment- IPRs,..Etc) and also some annexes.

C- The proposed free trade agreement and its impact on the US economy. 1- Concerning the Marker access Market access covers provisions that govern barriers to trade such as tariffs, quotes, safeguards, other nontariff barriers, and rules of origin that define which good shall be eligible for duty free treatment. The proposed U.S.-Panama FTA would repeal unilateral trade preferences provided to Panama under the Caribbean Basin Economic Recovery Act (CBERA), the Caribbean Basin Trade Partnership Act (CBTPA), and the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), under which most imports from Panama enter the U.S. market duty free along with those entering according to the normal trade schedule. Panamanian agricultural products face some of the highest obstacles, particularly sugar, which is subject to a tariff rate quota (TRQ). U.S. exports face tariffs, with most falling in the range of 3-10%, plus the additional 5% transfer tax, which applies to domestic goods as well. A case study on the market access (California) The U.S.-Panama TPA expands U.S. services providers’ access to Panama’s primarily servicebased economy. The Panama Canal and the Colon Free Zone provide much of the stimulus for Panama’s services sector. Key services include banking and financial services, accounting, legal and insurance services, inter-modal transportation services, container ports, flagship registry, tourism, and medical and health services. Panama made substantial commitments to liberalize its services trade. For example, Panama committed to open its telecommunications and financial services sector to U.S. companies, to lift restrictions on investment in retail services trade and to provide new access to professional services that previously had been reserved exclusively to Panamanian citizens. 103 2- Concerning the agricultural trade; Panamanian agriculture represents only 6% of GDP, but 17% of employment. Market access was particularly difficult for four highly protected products: pork; poultry; rice; and sugar. The 103 - http://ustraderep.gov/Trade_Agreements/Bilateral/Panama_FTA/Reports/Section_Index.html

United States was basically “offensive” on pork, poultry, and rice, expecting to open further Panama’s markets as soon as possible. It was “defensive” on sugar, attempting to limit increases in the sugar quota that might disrupt operations of the sugar program as defined in legislation. Panama’s position was the reverse, pressing to minimize increases in U.S. exports of pork, poultry, and rice, and to increase its U.S. sugar export quota. For Panama, pork, rice, and poultry were the most sensitive products. These are also protected by TRQs, with in-quota tariffs of 15% and out-of-quota tariffs rising to 74%, 103%, and 273%, respectively. Pork and poultry have a special issue related to the consumption of white versus dark meat. The United States consumes considerably more white meat than dark, leaving a disproportional amount of dark cuts for export, which face the highest tariffs. In Panama, as with much of the world, dark meat is preferred. The concern revolved around U.S. producers’ willingness to sell dark meat cuts at a low price in foreign markets, putting downward pressure on prices and hurting domestic producers in those countries. The Panamanians argued that because of the relatively high profit margins on white meat in the United States, on a cost allocation basis, U.S. producers can actually afford to sell the dark meat at below cost. The cost accounting can be debated, but concerns over the price effect in the Panamanian market remained unchanged. Panama’s rice industry, which supplies over 90% of the domestic demand, also argued that opening the market to U.S. subsidized rice would decimate their industry, which, because of its protection, sells rice considerably above the world price. In fact, the USITC report estimates that when fully implemented, the FTA will have the greatest impact on U.S. rice exports. Although the rice provisions will not be fully implemented until year 20 of the agreement, for milled rice, the TRQ for the first year will be 20 times the current level of U.S. exports to Panama, which may be expected to affect rice growers shortly after implementation, perhaps causing them to shift production to other crops, or leave farming for alternative employment.104 The compromise struck in the proposed FTA would provide duty-free treatment for over half of U.S. farm exports to Panama including high quality beef, poultry products, soybeans, most fresh fruits, and a number of processed goods. Remaining tariffs would be phased out between years 7 and 17 of the FTA. Rice tariffs, which protect one of Panama’s most sensitive products, would remain in place until year 20 of the FTA. U.S. exports of rice and other products would receive expanded quotas under the Panamanian tariff rate quota system. The United States agreed to give

104 USITC, U.S.-Panama Trade Promotion Agreement: Potential Economy-wide and Selected Sectoral Effects, pp. 27, 2-10, and 2-18 through 2-19

Panama an additional 7,000 metric tons of sugar imports in the first year under a three-tiered TRQ system, which would grow by 1% per year, capped eventually for some types of sugar.105 A case study on the agricultural trade (Florida): In 2006, agriculture exports from Florida to the world amounted to $1.7 billion (latest data available). Despite high tariffs and other barriers on agricultural products, including key Florida farm products such as fruits and preparations, vegetables and preparations, and beef, U.S. exporters shipped $304 million in U.S. farm products to Panama in 2007, up $95 million from 2006. A primary U.S. objective was to change the "one-way street" of duty-free access currently enjoyed by most Panama exports into a "two-way street" that provides U.S. suppliers with access to Panama’s market and levels the playing field with competitors. This objective was achieved. The U.S. - Panama TPA also includes far-reaching bilateral provisions concerning sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures and technical standards that will help to eliminate long-standing regulatory barriers faced by a variety of U.S. products in the Panamanian market.106 3- Concerning the Intellectual Property Rights: Strengthening intellectual property rights (IPR) was a major U.S. priority, in particular by having Panama’s standards approximate more closely those of the United States and by securing Panama’s commitment to join an array of international agreements related to IPR protection. Panama updated its patent law in 1996 and has a law governing trademark protection. Panama signed on to the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Copyright Treaty and Performances and Phonographs Treaty. The 1994 copyright law improved protection and increased the options to prosecute violators. The United States continues to encourage Panama to accede to additional IPR treaties, as now required in the proposed FTA, and to remain vigilant in its antipiracy commitment, a primary concern given the large amount of goods that are shipped through the Canal Free Zone.107 The proposed FTA contains more alleviative and efficient provisions regarding IPRs than these rules in the WTO.

105 CRS report, the proposed U.S. Panama free trade agreement. P, 18 106 Export.gov/fta/Panama/state 107 USTR, 2007 Foreign Trade Barriers, p. 454.

4- Concerning labor and environment : Labor and environment provisions have been highly contentious issues in trade agreements, with considerable disagreement in Congress and elsewhere over how aggressive language in trade agreements should be in accommodating these concerns. An important aspect of the proposed U.S.-Panama FTA is that it adopts new standards for both the labor and environment chapters that reflect a bipartisan understanding as developed by congressional leadership and the USTR in the “New Trade Policy for America.” Despite the bipartisan nature of the agreement, many Members continue to express reservations about the effectiveness of labor provisions, as well as the overall benefits of bilateral FTAs. Labor: Panama has higher wage rates, stronger labor laws, and fewer impediments to union formation than many countries in the region. The business community, including U.S. firms operating in Panama, argues that the labor laws are too generous with respect to firing or downsizing the labor force, which can actually encourage unintended responses by business, such as extended use of temporary workers.108 In 1970, Panama created the Tripartite Council on Union Freedom and Participation in Economic and Social Development with representatives from the government, labor, and business. Its primary function is to oversee that workers’ rights are being observed in Panama. The U.S. Department of State has pointed out that Panama’s labor laws guarantee all the ILO (international labor organization) basic principles. All private-sector and most public-sector employees have the right to organize, bargain collectively, and strike (limited for the public sector). In general, major violations of labor laws have not been found. However, the ILO has raised concerns about a number of ongoing practices. These include the widespread use of temporary workers to circumvent the labor code, the minimum requirement of 40 workers to form a union, and the use of child labor, particularly in agricultural areas during harvest times and for domestic employment. Lax enforcement of health and safety standards was also cited as a continuing problem. These issues were cited by some Members of Congress as needing to be addressed before the FTA could be considered. 109

108- CRS report, the proposed U.S. Panama Free Trade agreement. 109 USITC, U.S.-Panama Trade Promotion Agreement: Potential Economy-wide and Selected Sectoral Effects.

Environment:

Environmental specialists have stressed the need to achieve multiple goals in U.S. reciprocal FTAs. These include protecting and assuring strong enforcement of existing domestic environmental standards, ensuring that multilateral environmental agreements are not undermined by trade rules, promoting strong environmental initiatives to evaluate and raise performance, developing a systematic program of capacity-building assistance, and assuring that environmental provisions in FTAs are subject to the same dispute resolution and enforcement mechanisms as are other aspects of the agreements. The question over labor and environmental standards reflects differences in both economic and political perspectives. From an economic perspective, it has been argued that developing country firms may have an â&#x20AC;&#x153;unfairâ&#x20AC;? competitive advantage because their lower standards are a basis for their lower costs, which in turn are reflected in lower prices for goods that compete with those produced in developed countries. It follows from this argument that the difference in costs may be an inducement to move U.S. investment and jobs abroad. In addition, critics have also argued that trade agreements should not support a status quo in production standards that leads to unacceptable working conditions and severe environmental degradation. ______________________________________________________________________________ ______

C- soCIal seCurIty PrIvatIzatIon a-IntroduCtIon: Historical background: The roots of this program- the pension program- goes back to the American civil war which had bad consequences on the American citizens later on as there were thousands of orphans widows and disabled, it was the largest proportion that USA has ever witnessed!! Later, there were main three reasons behind the dramatic changes happened in USA's system as whole that made the traditional economic system unprofitable: 1- The revolution in the industrial sector. 2-the urbanization of America 3- Increase in life expectancy as a result of the huge development in medical sector.

These features will mainly in the mid 18s. However, after that USA had suffered from a huge economic crisis in 1929 called ''The Great Depression'' where unemployment exceeded 25%; about 10,000 banks failed; the Gross National Product declined from $105 billion in 1929 to only $55 billion in 1932. Wages paid to workers declined from $50 billion in 1929 to only $30 billion in 1932. Millions of people were unemployed.110 All that called mainly for the establishment of social security program or it was called then as'' social insurance'' due to British origin. The Social Security Act (Act of August 14, 1935) [H. R. 7260] An act to provide for the general welfare by establishing a system of Federal old-age benefits, and by enabling the several States to make more adequate provision for aged persons, blind persons, dependent and crippled children, maternal and child welfare, public health, and the administration of their unemployment compensation laws; to establish a Social Security Board; to raise revenue; and for other purposes.111 Social Security is a pay-as-you-go system, meaning that todayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s workers fund the program by contributing payroll taxes to pay the benefits paid of todayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s beneficiaries. The importance of the social security program Without the support of Social Security, the official poverty rate among seniors, 3.4 million of whom already live below the poverty level, would rise from about 10 percent to 54 percent. Clearly; Social Security has succeeded in dramatically reducing elder poverty.112 Social security program becomes one of the main pillar upon which the welfare and the stability of the state stands on. Social Security has grown to become an essential facet of modern life. One in six Americans receives a Social Security benefit, and about 98 percent of all workers are in jobs covered by Social Security. Social Security benefits comprise about 5% of the nationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s total economic output. From 1940, when slightly more than 222,000 people received monthly Social Security benefits, until today, when almost 45 million people receive such benefits, Social Security has 110 http://www.ssa.gov/history/briefhistory3.html

11127-28 http://thetaskforce.org/downloads/reports/reports/SellingUsShort.pdf p 3-4 8-9 13/10 8:48pm 112

100

grown steadily. And Social Security benefits provide income security not just to the elderly. Nearly 1 in 3 beneficiaries are not retirees.113 Cost of Living Allowances 'COLAs' This is the benefits of the social security that increases annually to cover up the corrosive effects of inflation on fixed incomes. This is the main determine whether or not the program is efficiently functioning, because it is unacceptable to have this program and its cost living allowances is zero!

Social Security Cost-Of-Living Adjustments Year 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989

COLA 8.0 6.4 5.9 6.5 9.9 14.3 11.2 7.4 3.5 3.5 3.1 1.3 4.2 4.0 4.7

Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

COLA 5.4 3.7 3.0 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.9 2.1 1.3 2.5 3.5 2.6 1.4 2.1 2.7

Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

COLA 4.1 3.3 2.3 5.8 0.0

The COLA for December 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent based on CPIs published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pursuant to Public Law 106-554, however, this COLA is effectively now 2.5 percent.114

Obstacles faces social security 113 http://usa.usembassy.de/etexts/soc/ssbriefhistory.pdf 114 http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/COLA/colaseries.html

101

Normally any program faces problems and the problems that face the social security program mainly are the followings: the declining in the birth rate-due to higher development rate-and the increase in life expectancies of the old -due to better medical care- lead the point where we are getting closer to the aging stage, it means reducing the number of workers available to support each beneficiary; the less the new worker introduced to the system the heavier the burden will be on the individual workers when fewer new workers are paying into Social Security and a larger proportion collects them. Already, demographic changes have reduced the worker-to-beneficiary ratio to 3.4-to-1. By 2050 it will be just 2-to-1. In other words, the relative burden on a worker in 2050 will be twoand-a-half times larger than the burden on a similar worker in 1960.115 It is expected in 2016, tax revenue that supports the social security will be less and that has a negative effect on the amount of the benefits resulted from the program. The program will seek to cover the deficit that in the beginning will be small and then will grow rapidly reaching $318billion in 2035(in 2001 dollars). The Trust Funds will be exhausted in 2038. At that time, Social Security systemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s dedicated revenue will be enough to cover only 74 percent of promised benefits. To pay full promised benefits would require an increase in the total tax rate from payroll and benefit taxation from the current 12.4 percent to 17.8 percent. By 2075, the tax rate necessary to fund full promised benefits would equal 19.4 percent of payroll, a 57 percent increase over todayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s payroll tax rate.116 According to the latest Trustees Report, Social Security system will require 1-(a) increasing the payroll tax by more than one-half (b) Cutting benefits by one-third or (c) Some combination of the two sometime during the next century.117

11531- 32 http://seniorjournal.com/PDF/Final_report_SSComm12-01.pdf p64 11633-34 http://www.ncpa.org/pdfs/st227.pdf 117

102

2- Encouraging Americans to increase their savings during their working years. In case of higher taxes as a way to reform the program that will lead to lower income and lower productivity. 3- In order to reform the social security program, with no increase in taxes or government debts, at least part of our current system of pay-as you- go finance should be replaced with a funded system that makes investments in income-earning assets. Although the costs are higher in the transition to a new system, it is better than not acting at all.118

b-PrIvatIzatIon as tool to reForm the Program Besides that, according to a model developed by the Private Enterprise Research Center (PERC) and the National Center for Policy Analysis (NCPA), they stated that if the funds that are privately invested increases, as result the capital stock will increase then it will lead to higher future government revenue.

The General Structure of Personal Accounts: The forms of personal accounts may take different shapes. However, there are main features should exist in all of them which are: 1-The fees for the administration of the account must be reasonable to many standards. 2- Broadly diversified portfolios of investment with many choices to reduce the risk as possible. 3- Flexibility option in choosing the personal account. Workers may be forced to invest in companies that they find morally repugnant, or else risk losing retirement income if there is no offer for a wide array of investment fund options.119

118

119 http://thetaskforce.org/downloads/reports/reports/SellingUsShort.pdf p 3-4 8-9

103

4- Personal account owners are entitled to have their contributions credited to their personal accounts in a timely and accurate fashion, but without imposing additional compliance costs on employers. 5-the government must do its best in ensuring that any personal account system is operating efficiently and fairly.120 However inflation may threat the efficiency of personal account as Private Savings accounts would not be adjusted for inflation. It would not guarantee payment for the rest of a retireeâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s life. However, under plans that retain the current payroll tax, an individual opting for a personal account can expect higher overall benefits than one who does not choose an account.121

Comparing the difference between personal accounts and direct government investment: Worker can choose among broadly diversified portfolios of investments while the government forces everyone into a "one size fits all" portfolio. The Final Report of the Presidentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Commission to Strengthen Social Security stated the following: 1-The national savings will be higher through the establishment of personal accounts. They are not sure to which degree the government will be able to save Social Security revenues that will be later deposited in personal accounts. However, they are sure according to history; the government has not tended to save this money. To the extent to which this pattern would continue in the future, saving this money in personal accounts would increase net saving.122 2- It believes that the establishment of personal accounts will improve incentives for labor force participation. Supply of labor is the main element that determines the success of the social security's reform. Many studies indicate that social security was one of the main reasons that led to the early retirement in USA, as the social security tax that is imposed on the younger workers are very high compared to tax that is imposed on Normal Retirement Age in addition to the tax

120http://seniorjournal.com/PDF/Final_report_SSComm12-01.pdf page 35,37,38,39,40,43.44,45,50.66 121 http://seniorjournal.com/PDF/Final_report_SSComm12-01.pdf page 35,37 12238-39-40 http://seniorjournal.com/PDF/Final_report_SSComm12-01.pdf page 35,37,38,39,40,43.44

104

levied via the U.S. income tax system. High tax rates provide an incentive for individuals to retire rather than to remain in the labor force. Labor supply is not only affected by social security in issues related to retirement decisions, also researches suggested that the complex linkage between the taxes workers pay and the benefits they receive is not fully understood by workers. As a result, the Social Security payroll tax may cause the marginal tax rate faced by working individuals to increase. Since the income tax is less than the payroll tax for the large majority of U.S. households, the marginal tax rates created by the Social Security system are considered a critical issue. Both, the supply of labor and the form of compensation that individuals receive, are distorted by high tax rates on labor resulting in what so called a "dead weight lossâ&#x20AC;? to the economy. These distortions exhaust the nationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economy by reducing output and growth. They also make it much more difficult to finance the provision of future retirement benefits. Contributions to personal accounts are less likely to discourage work, relative to the current system, they are less likely to be viewed as a tax because money is deposited into an account that is owned by each system participant. Labor supply decisions throughout the workersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; lives are less likely to be distorted because workers perceive a direct link between the contributions and future benefits. As workers get nearer to retirement, they may recognize that accumulations in their accounts will grow and the annuities they can purchase will increase if they work more and contribute longer. This encourages them to stay in the labor force for a longer period which is an incentive that becomes particularly important as Baby Boomers retire.123 3- The administration of the personal account can be conducted in an efficient way based on international experience. There are more than 20 countries in the five continents that has established the personal accounts some of them are; U.K., Mexico, Chile, Australia, Argentina, Hong Kong, Switzerland, Poland. Russia and China, are also now in the process of creating personal accounts. 4- By increasing total benefits relative to what the current system can pay, the personal accounts augment the social security safety net. 124

123 124

105

Charles P. Blahous. “STRENGTHENING SOCIAL SECURITYAND CREATING PERSONAL WEALTH FOR ALL AMERICANS”.PDF

1-Today, all of a retiree’s retirement protections come from the traditional system. 2-In the future, workers could have the option to receive some of their benefits from a personal account – "Social Security Part B" – while still receiving benefits from the traditional system – "Social Security Part A." The total of these two parts will provide great protections from poverty than the current system can provide. '' With the 75th anniversary of Social Security approaching, AARP released a new survey report that shows that three in four (76%) adults age 18+ rely on or plan to rely on Social Security for their retirement income, including a large majority (62%) of younger adults age 18-29. The survey also showed a strong majority of those polled oppose reducing Social Security benefits for deficit reduction (85%), and a majority of those under age 50 support the infusion of additional revenues into the system to provide the same level of benefits in the future (57%)''125 The privatization of social security deal with the individual as rational man who knows his needs well. Convincing that consumer is more efficient that citizen however dollars don’t deliberate and don’t seek common ground.126 125 http://onthehillblog.blogspot.com/2010/08/survey-americans-of-all-ages-plan-to.html AARP -- is American Association of Retired Persons nonprofit organization for people age 50 and over it was established to enhance the quality of their life which "provides a wide range of unique benefits, special products, and services for their members." 12642- http://www.reclaimdemocracy.org/articles_2005/barber_social_security_republic.php 43-

http://tcf.org/media-center/pdfs/pr46/12badideas.pdf accessed on13/11

106

And according to a research conducted by Princeton University economist Burton G. Malkiel, he stated that even professional money manager over time significantly underperformed indexes of the entire market.127 Even according to mathematical calculations, it stated that the dollar that enters the personal accounts from social security program is a dollar being subtracted to provide incomes granted to the 37 percent of beneficiaries who are not retired workers. An analysis conducted by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, The proposal of privatization would increase the federal debt by 1 trillion in its first decade of implementation, this will deeply affect our economy and we are just in a stage recovering from financial crisis. The retirement will be received from the personal accounts depends upon the status of the market whether it is up or down. As a result of the implementation of privatization, the administration of the personal accounts will be a heavy burden on the government it would need to establish and track many small accounts efficiently.

127

107

Topic 2 The Economic and Political Embargo over Cuba

What does Embargo mean? The Word" Embargo" means an official order by the government prohibiting the movements of merchant ships throughout its ports. By and large, in the modern

108

literatures, the word" Embargo" is used to define a prohibition by a government on certain or all trade with a foreign nation128 Powerful states use the policy of Embargo in order to –as they believe- achieve their interests and goals whatever small or large, whether they are long-term or short-term goals. The most significant Embargo nowadays is the Cuban Embargo which represents a major and keen concern for those who are in the United States of America or those who settled in Cuba.

II. An overall view on the Cuban Case: A-

Political Conditions

1- Cuban political system: The Constitution of 1992, which is guided by the socialist ideologies, defines Cuba as a socialist republic. The constitution describes the Communist Party of Cuba as the "leading force of society and of the state". The first secretary of the communist party shall be the president of Cuba and also the president of the council of ministers. Both the president and the council of ministers are elected by the legislative branch. The president serves five years term with unlimited number of terms he can serve in power. The national assembly of people’s power represents the legislative organ in Cuba, it composed of 609 members. The supreme court of Cuba serves as the nation’s highest judicial branch. On February 24, 2008, Cuba’s legislature selected Raúl Castro as President of Cuba when his brother Fidel Castro stepped down due to poor health. . 2- Human Rights in Cuba and the U.S. role: A- Human rights track in Cuba: Cuba is considered one of the poor recorded states in the field of human rights. Some explanations say that the aftermath of the communist ideology is the crucial reason behind denial and deterioration of human rights track in Cuba. The most highlighted and significant examples which represent the derogation volume of human rights and fundamental freedoms throughout Cuba mainly are the following: Restricting freedom of expression, association, assembly, movement, and other basic rights, it has cracked down on dissent, arrested human rights activists and independent journalists. The US state department in its annual report regarding human rights in 2008 stated 128 http://www.answers.com/topic/embargo

109

serious human rights problems in Cuba among these abundant problems were (arbitrary arrest, detention of human rights advocates and members of independent professional organizations, harassment, threats opponents, beating and abuse of detainees and prisoners; which led to death of two prisoners in 2007, absence of fairness and denial of holding fair trails and also pervasive monitoring of private communications). Besides that the Cuban government was enacting a tourism apartheid policy by which it was banned on the Cubans to stay in tourism hotels but it lifted since March 2008. By and large, the deteriorated situation of human rights in Cuba is not a modernized case but it is a developing case since 1959 or may be earlier. However, there is an express derogation and absence of human rights and fundamental freedoms in Cuba for the majority of people, the awareness of human rights has developed and found among the Cubans so that a lot of human rights associations and groups have created in order to enhance human rights situation throughout Cuba; for example, ladies in white group which formed in 2003 by wives, mothers, daughters, sisters and aunts of 75 political prisoners.

B-U.S. and its role in supporting human rights & democracy. The United States of America is playing a major role in enhancing, supporting and maintaining human rights and democracy in Cuba. 1- Concerning human rights. The United States has played a crucial role in alarming the world to the deteriorated situation of human rights in Cuba. Not only that, but also encouraged Cubans to improve their situation regarding the apathetic situation of human rights. The US encouragement of the Cubans to enhance their situation has been approached in a variety of ways by the US government. One of which has been mentioned already regarding awarding the human rights groups and journalists in Cuba. In addition to that the USA has funded the human rights activities in Cuba through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and the State Department and also the National Endowment for Democracy in order to raise the Cuban awareness of human rights and democracy.

110

USAIDâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Cuba program has supported a variety of U.S.-based nongovernmental organizations with goals of promoting a rapid, peaceful transition to democracy, helping develop civil society, and building solidarity with Cuba's human rights activists.129 These efforts are largely funded through Economic Support Funds (ESF) in the annual foreign operations appropriations bill. In recent years, funding for such projects amounted to about $5 million for each of FY2001 and FY2002, $6 million in FY2003, $21.4 million in FY2004 (because of reprogrammed ESF assistance to fund the democracy-building recommendations of the Commission to Provide Assistance for a Free Cuba), and $8.9 million in FY2005. In FY2006, $10.9 million in Cuba democracy funding was provided, including $8.9 million in ESF and $2 million in Development Assistance. The volume of assistance to Cuba has increased since 2007 as in 2007 financial year (FY) the actual number of the assistance was $13.3 million; 2008FY was $45, 7 million. Thus, for FY2009, the Administration has requested $20 million in ESF to continue to implement program recommendations of the Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba. The money would assist human rights activists, independent journalists, Afro-Cubans, women, youth, and student activists. The report to the Senate Appropriations Committee version of the FY2009 State Department, Foreign operations, and Related Agencies Appropriations Act, S, 3288 (S.Rept. 110425), recommends fully funding the Administrationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s request for Cuba, but also calls for the State Department and USAID to conduct regular evaluations to ensure the cost effectiveness of the programs.130 The United States and Cuba held talks in Havana in September 2009 concerning resuming direct mail service between the two countries. Both of them expressed satisfaction with the talks. Both sides agreed to resume but no new talks have been put in place. 2- Concerning democracy:

129 CRS

report, issues for the 110th congress

130- CRS report issues for 111th congress

111

The government accountability office issued a report examining the overall U.S. assistance for enhancing democracy in Cuba from 1996-2005 and stated that the U.S. program had clear problems and in need to better changes, thus the report stated" do not provide adequate assurance that the funds are being used properly and that grantees are in compliance with applicable law and regulations". 

Funding for Cuban broadcasting (Radio & TV Marti)

The US government sponsored radio and television broadcasting to Cuba. Radio and TV Martí began in 1985 and 1990 respectively. As spelled out in the Broadcasting Board of Governors (BBG) FY2009 Budget Request, the objectives of Radio and TV Martí are: 1. To support the right of the Cuban people to seek, receive, and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers; 2. To be effective in furthering the open communication of information and ideas through use of radio and television broadcasting to Cuba; 3. To serve as a consistently reliable and authoritative source of accurate, objective, and comprehensive news; and 4. To provide news, commentary, and other information about events in Cuba and elsewhere to promote the cause of freedom in Cuba. Radio and TV Marti have represented a long-lasting controversy in the Congress because of the real benefit behind the program and the year by year requested fund. There have been debates on cutting the fund for TV Marti in specific as it has not had much audience. For FY2009, the Administration has requested $34.392 million for broadcasting to Cuba, slightly more than provided by Congress in FY2008 which was $33.681 million. The requested amount includes funding for the airborne platform that the Office of Cuba Broadcasting uses to broadcast Radio and TV Martí. The report to the Senate Appropriations Committee version of the FY2009 State Department, Foreign Operations, and Related Agencies Appropriations Act, S. 3288 (S.Rept.110425), recommends fully funding the administration's request for Cuba broadcasting. For FY2010, The BBG requested $32.47 million in FY2010, about $2.3 million less than provided in FY2009, and ultimately Congress appropriated $30.474 million. The BBG proposed to change the news format for TV Martí by replacing the two evening news programs with news updates on the half hour, and to convert Radio Martí to an all news format. The proposed changes would eliminate 35 jobs from the Office of Cuba Broadcasting, representing a staffing cut of about 20% from 171 to 136 positions. Some press reports maintain that the change appears to be in part a way for the BBG to deal with criticism of political bias and propaganda at the station, while BBG officials maintain that the cut is an effort to streamline programming and to respond to feedback from audience research.

112

In the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2010 which was enacted in December 2009, Congress provided $30.474 million for Cuba broadcasting in FY2010, with not more than $5.5 million for non-salary and benefits expenses for TV Martí. This was almost $2 million less than the Administration’s request of $32.47 million.131 Prior to the approval of the omnibus appropriations measure, the House-passed H.R. 3081 would have fully funded the Administration's request while the Senate Appropriations Committeereported version, S. 1434, would have provided $15 million less than requested and prohibit funding for TV Martí broadcasts. For FY 2011, The BBG is requesting $29.179 million for Cuba broadcasting in FY2011, about $1 million less than that appropriated in FY2010. Staffing would remain the same at 136 positions. The Senate version of the State Department and Foreign Operations appropriations measure, S. 3676, reported by the Senate Appropriations Committee on July 29, 2010 (S.Rept. 111-237), recommends $28.789 million for broadcasting to Cuba ($390,000 less than the request of $29.179 million). In the report to the bill, the committee also states that it does not support closing the Greenville Station in North Carolina that transmits the Cuba broadcasts, expanding TV Martí’s transmission on DirecTV, or expanding and renovating the TV Martí studio until the Broadcasting Board of Governors submits a multi-year strategic plan for broadcasting to Cuba132

B

Economic Conditions

An overview on the Economic Embargo:

Cuba is the largest Caribbean nation, with 11.4 million inhabitants and a land mass of over 110,000 square kilometers.133 Since 1959, when Fidel Castro assumed power, Cuba has been a communist state characterized by a one party political system and a centrally planned economy. 131 CRS report, Issues for 111th Congress

132 CRS report, issues for the 111th congress. Page 54 133 CIA, world factbook

113

Per capita income was $9,700 (2009 EST.) its economy is heavily dependent on the tourism sector and its 2009 GDP according to the CIA world factsheet was $110.9 billion. The U.S. economic embargo against Cuba was originally put into place in October 1960, but then it was limited in scope and did not include food and medicine. In February 1962, the Kennedy administration tightened the embargo, and by July 1963, travel by U.S. citizens to Cuba was prohibited, and financial and commercial transactions with Cuba were made illegal. Although the embargo regulations have been loosened and tightened by successive Presidential administrations, the basic framework of the trade and travel restrictions has remained in place for more than 40 years. U.S. sales of food to Cuba are currently permitted under the Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act of 2000 (TSRA), provided that Cuban purchases are paid with cash and not credit. Agricultural groups throughout USA such as the American Farm Bureau Federation and United States Rice Federation have advocated alleviating and releasing trade and travelling restrictions that have imposed on Cuba. Various Congressional members have introduced a legislation to remove these barriers134 .However, Obama's administration and the former bush administration have advocated to keep on the Embargo.

A- U.S Financing restrictions and its impact on the agriculture sector: 1- An Overview on the agricultural sector in Cuba: The Cuban agricultural sector contributed only to 4.3 percent of Cubaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s GDP 135, but employed approximately 20 percent of the population. Government policy plays a large role in determining which crops are locally grown and how the agricultural sector is structured. Traditionally, sugar and tobacco grown for export markets dominated agricultural production. Since the collapse of 134 CRS, issues for 110th congress 135 CIA, World factbook

114

the Soviet Union, the Cuban government has focused on greater self-sufficiency in food production. Sugar production declined from 8 million tons to 1.3 million tons between 1989 and 2006, during which time the Cuban government has reoriented its agriculture sector toward the production of other products. Cuba’s agricultural economy is still largely centered on export cash crops such as sugar, tobacco, coffee, and citrus, but food staples such as potatoes, rice, corn, beans, sweet and wide varieties of vegetables are now grown for the local consumption136. 2- Agricultural exports and Sanctions: 

Major sanctions :

The U.S. commercial agricultural exports to Cuba have been allowed for several years, but with numerous restrictions and licensing requirements due to restrictions on travelling to Cuba. The 106th Congress passed the Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act (TSRA) of 2000 which allows for one-year export licenses for selling agricultural commodities to Cuba, although no U.S. government assistance, foreign assistance, export assistance, credits, or credit guarantees are available to finance such exports. TSRA also denies exporters access to U.S. private commercial financing or credit; all transactions were determined to be conducted in cash paid in advance or with financing from third countries. TSRA reiterates the existing ban on importing goods from Cuba but authorizes travel to Cuba, under a specific license, to conduct business related to the newly allowed agricultural sales137, and it has amended in 2005 to provide another harsh interpretation for the term of ‘payment of cash in advance’ to mean that Cubans shall pay in advance to the seller or the seller's agent prior to the shipment of the goods that led to a strong opposition is the Congress as they said that the action constitutes a new sanction that violates the intent of TSRA and could jeopardize millions of dollars in U.S. agricultural sales to Cuba. During the last 108th, 109th, 110th and the existing 111th Congressional sessions witnessed and are being witnessed introducing several bills that pertaining to the Cuban Case whether the agricultural restrictions or even the travel restriction, as the travel has its impact on both travelling per se and agriculture as well. In additional to that, there is another obstacle on the way of releasing the embargo which is the trademark sanction. Since 1999 which means over than a decade the United States of America has imposed a trademark sanction on the confiscated business from their owner by the Cuban regime. The imposed sanction (A provision in the FY1999 omnibus appropriations measure (Section 211 of Division A, Title II, P.L. 105-277, signed into law October 21, 1998)) prevents the U.S. patent office to accept payments from any Cuban or foreign 136 CRS report, U.S agricultural sales to Cuba. Page 20

137 CRS report, issues for the 110 congress,

115

nationals provide its legal protection by registration to these confiscated businesses unless the original owner of the confiscated business has consented. Not only preventing the patent office to register but preventing the U.S. courts to decide on any matter relates to section 112 as well. That act has faced several criticisms from the EU. The European Union initiated World Trade Organization dispute settlement proceedings in June 2000, maintaining that the U.S. law violates the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property (TRIPS). In January 2002, the WTO ultimately found that the trademark sanction violated WTO provisions on national treatment and most-favored-nation (MFN) obligations in the TRIPS Agreement. USA pledged more than one time to amend the 112 section and to bring that section into compliance with the WTO rules but nothing happened. The mentioned views on the trademark sanction put two scenarios in dealing with the situation the first scene is narrowing the interpretation of section 112 as to be applied to U.S. companies instead of being limited to the foreign companies as the United States “will not give effect to a claim or right to U.S. property if that claim is based on a foreign compensation.” 18 the other wing wants to repeal section 112 all together. They advocate that the Cuban government does not prevent the U.S. companies from registering their trademarks so that the law jeopardize over 5,000 trademarks of over 500 U.S. companies registered in Cuba. 

The aftermath of the agricultural restrictions on certain commodities. 1) Overall view on the Cuban entire market.

Cuban Major Products: As was mentioned before, Cuba is considered to be the largest Caribbean nation. Its weather is tropical so that it is famous by certain tropical crops. Agricultural imports are concentrated in products that are either staple in the Cuban diet, such as rice and beans, or not produced efficiently in Cuba’s tropical climate138such as, coarse grains, wheat, and animal products. During 2000–06, over 50 percent of the total value of Cuba’s agricultural imports consisted of cereals, meats, and dairy products (primarily milk powder). Cuban Major imported commodities: Cuba imports most of its domestic consumption of grain (wheat, wheat flour, rice, and corn). Wheat cannot be grown commercially in Cuba, and domestic production of rice and corn account for about 42 percent and 43 percent of domestic consumption, respectively. Between 2000 and 2006, Cuban grain imports grew about 6 percent annually, reaching almost $247 million in 2006; however this percentage has risen due to the aftermath of natural disasters 138 U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, “Cuba’s Agriculture: Collapse & Economic Reform

116

recently. During this period, grain accounted for more than one-quarter of all Cuban agricultural imports. Combined Cuban imports of wheat and wheat flour ranged annually between $130 million and $150 million annually. Cuban imports of meat (mainly poultry, pork, and beef) have grown since 2000, because it is less expensive to purchase meat from efficient overseas suppliers than to produce livestock domestically with imported feed grains.139 Major suppliers: Despite keeping the embargo, the United States of America is the leading supplier of the Cuban imports of agricultural. The other leading suppliers are Brazil, Canada, Argentina and other countries. USA as the leading supplier: In 1992 the former US senator of New Jersey Robert Torricelli introduced a bill pertaining to Cuba this bill enacted as an act. Its main features were that prohibited foreign-based subsidiaries of U.S. companies from trading with Cuba, travel to Cuba by U.S. citizens, and family remittances to Cuba. In additional to that the said bill enacted that all countries trading with Cuba should discontinue doing so as well as cancel any economic activity with the country and also any country trading with Cuba risks not being eligible for aid from the U.S. However, the mentioned restrictions have loosened by virtue of the TRSA and the afforded USA's supports for Cuban people in the aftermath of hurricanes and other natural disasters. The following tables reveal and estimate the amount of the exported commodities from USA.

2005

Partner Cuba

Product FAS Total

Jan - Jan 2006 2007 2008 2009 Aug Aug 2009 2010 Period/Period % Value Value Value Value Value Value Value Change (Value) 351,580 328,195 440,154 695,216 527,071 376,900 264,420

-30

Cuba

Grains & Feeds

148,970 128,392 224,127 369,367 218,004 155,971 102,399

-34

Cuba

Poultry &

58,563 44,840 78,079 139,431 144,565 105,570 78,702

-25

139 U.S trade commission's report: U.S agricultural sales to Cuba; certain economic effects of the us restrictions

117

Products Cuba

Oilseeds & Products

Cuba

80,406 89,609 114,620 141,239 135,284 91,197 63,739

-30

Livestock & Meats

10,281 15,408

8,181

13,198 13,432 11,461

14,393

Cuba

Horticultural Products

11,286 23,858

4,677

4,727

9,683

8,002

2,636

-67

Cuba

Dairy & Products

30,284 13,156

711

15,665

2,946

1,779

1,682

-5

Cuba

Sugar & Tropical Products

565

149

128

852

614

869

Cuba

Fishery Products

Cuba

Cotton, Linters & Waste

1,593

394

664

1,855

562

Cuba

Forest Products

5,309

7,345

8,960

9,666

1,744

Cuba

Planting Seeds

4,249

5,043

Total

351,580 328,195 440,154 695,216 527,071 376,900 264,420

-30

Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics.

As observed through the above table the U.S. exports to Cuba declined in 2005 and 2006 to $369 million and $340 million, respectively, but increased to $447 million in 2007. In 2008, U.S. exports to Cuba rose to $712, far higher than in previous years, in part because of the rise in food prices and because of Cuba’s increased food needs in the aftermath of several hurricanes and tropical storms that severely damaged the country’s agricultural sector. In 2009, however, U.S. exports to Cuba declined to $533 million, 25% lower than the previous year. The decline was largely related to Cuba’s shortage of hard currency. In 2010; U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba have continued to fall. From January through May 2010, U.S. exports to Cuba amounted to $184 million, down 34% from the same period in 2009. Analysts again cite Cuba’s shortage of hard currency as the main reason for the decline.17 Regardless of what we mentioned, the imported commodities from U.S. have several comparative advantages in delivery and warehousing than the other imported commodities from any other state because of the proximity

118

of the U.S. ports to Cuba, the marketing efficiency of the U.S. exporters, the smaller volume of individual shipments, and the transportation and handling capacity of U.S. ports. In additional to that, the solely authorized agency in the Cuban government to tackle trade issues with USA specifically purchasing food is the "Alimport". The U.S. restrictions on agricultural exports with Cuba has not only a pandemic impact on the Cuban but also on the entire U.S. market per se. we can estimate the impact on certain U.S. commodities as an example of the whole restrictions. Estimated effects of removing U.S. financing restrictions on U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba:

Commodity

Wheat Rice Corn Animal food

Soybeans Fats& oils Dry beans Poultry Beef Pork Milk powder

Other dairy Processed food Forest products Fish

Cuban imports U.S. share from U.S. of Cuban imports With restrictions Million$ percent 51 38 40 24 43 71 42 76 32 99 22 57 20 25 45 65 0.1 0.2 14 42 13 10 0.1 0.3 1 2

Cuban imports U.S. share of from U.S. Cuban imports

16-27

28-49

8-15

30-56

Without restrictions Million$ percent 68 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 84 51-65 54-83 33-53 46-48 78-85 43- 45 79-85 30-31 79-85 24-27 99-100 29-42 63-74 51-56 37-56 6-10 77-85 20-24 13-25 27-54 60-74 5-10 22-45 19-35 27-53

products Source: United States international trade commission

119

As Observed that if the financial restrictions on the U.S. agriculture products were released, the value of the imported products from USA would increase in the fifteen abovementioned commodities, however the solely exception would be for the soybeans. Some groups favor further easing and loosening of restrictions as they advocate that these restrictions are harming the Cuban people. Not only harming the Cuban people but jeopardize the U.S. farmers and the agri-business firm as they missing out millions of dollars because of the embargo. Agricultural exporters who support the lifting of the prohibition on financing contend that allowing such financing would help smaller U.S. companies expand purchases to Cuba more rapidly. On the other hand, Opponents of further easing restrictions on agricultural exports to Cuba maintain that U.S. policy does not deny such sales to Cuba, as evidenced by the large amount of sales since 2001. Moreover, according to the State Department, since the Cuban Democracy Act was enacted in 1992, the United States has licensed billions of dollars in private humanitarian donations. Opponents further argue that easing pressure on the Cuban government would in effect be lending support and extending the duration of the Castro regime. They maintain that the United States should remain steadfast in its opposition to any easing of pressure on Cuba that could prolong the Castro regime and its repressive policies. Some agricultural producers that export to Cuba support continuation of the prohibition on financing for agricultural exports to Cuba because it ensures that they will be paid.140 Consequently, Can USA release its financial restriction on Cuba to snatch the missing fruits and reward the Cuban people? B) U.S. restrictions on travel and its double impact 1) Overview Restrictions on travel and remittance have been a crucial element imposed by the United States to isolate the communist country for much of the past 40 years. However, there have been numerous changes to the restrictions and for five years, from 1977 until 1982; there were no restrictions on travel. Bush administration Under the Bush Administration, enforcement of U.S. restrictions on Cuba travel increased, and restrictions on travel and on private remittances to Cuba were tightened. In March 2003, the Administration eliminated travel for people-to-people educational exchanges unrelated to 140 Brian Lehman, testimony before the Senate Committee on the Judiciary,hearing on â&#x20AC;&#x153;An Examination of Section 211 of the Omnibus AppropriationsAct of 1998,â&#x20AC;? July 13, 2004

120

academic course work. In June 2004, the Administration significantly restricted travel, especially

family travel, and the provision of private humanitarian assistance to Cuba of remittances and gift parcels.

in the form

Obama administration As noted above, during the 2008 electoral campaign, Barack Obama pledged to lift restrictions on family travel to Cuba as well as restrictions on Cuban Americans sending remittances to Cuba. In March 2009, Congress took action on its own in the 111th Congress by including two provisions in the FY2009 omnibus appropriations measure (P.L. 111-8) that ease sanctions on travel to Cuba. As implemented by the Treasury Department, family travel was once again allowed once every 12 months to visit a close relative for an unlimited length of stay, and the limit for daily expenditure allowed by family travelers became the same as for other authorized travelers to Cuba (State Department maximum per diem rate for Havana, currently $179 day). The definition of â&#x20AC;&#x153;close relativeâ&#x20AC;? was expanded to mean any individual related to the traveler by blood, marriage, or adoption that is no more than three generations removed from that person. The omnibus measure also included a provision requiring a general license for travel related to the marketing and sale of agricultural and medical goods to Cuba. The Treasury Departmentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Office of Foreign Assets Control ultimately issued regulations implementing this omnibus provision on September 3, 2009. The regulations require a written report at least 14 days before departure identifying both the traveler and the producer or distributor and describing the purpose and scope of such travel. Another written report is required within 14 days of return from Cuba describing the activities conducted, the persons met, and the expenses incurred. The regulations also require that such travelers under this provision be regularly employed by a producer or distributor of the agricultural commodities or medical products or an entity duly appointed to represent such a producer or distributor. The activity schedules for such travelers cannot include free time, travel, or recreation in excess of that consistent with a full work schedule. On April 13, 2009, the Obama Administration announced several significant measures to ease U.S. sanctions on Cuba. Fulfilling a campaign pledge, President Obama announced that all restrictions on family travel and on remittances to family members in Cuba would be lifted. This significantly superseded the action taken by Congress in March that had essentially reverted family travel restrictions to as they had been before they were tightened in 2004. Under the new policy announced by the Administration in April, there would be no limitations on the frequency or duration of family visits, and the 44-pound limitation on accompanied baggage would be removed. Family travelers would be able to spend the same as allowed for other travelers, up to $179 per day. With regard to family remittances, the previous limitation of no more than $300 per quarter would be removed and there would be no restriction on the amount or frequency of 121

the remittances. Authorized travelers would be able once again carry up to $3,000 in remittances. Regulations for the above policy changes were issued by the Treasury and Commerce Departments on September 3, 2009. As noted above, there were numerous press reports in August 2010 maintaining that President Obama would take further action to ease restrictions on travel and remittances by making it easier to engage in educational, religious, and other types of people-to-people travel and allowing all Americans to send remittances to Cuba. The reported changes appear similar to policy that was in place from 1999 under the Clinton administration through mid-2004 under the Bush Administration. The timing of the potential policy changes is unclear.141 2) Effects of travel restrictions on U.S. travel to Cuba: Growth in Cuba’s tourism sector will likely increase Cuban demand for food imports. An increasingly vibrant tourism industry in Cuba will not only require more and better quality food for foreign visitors, but will likely continue to increase demand for food by Cuban citizens that work in tourism and related services. The resulting overall growth in Cuban GDP would provide additional hard currency to the Cuban government permitting increased imports, including those from the United States. To assess the extent to which lifting U.S. tourist travel restrictions would affect U.S. travel to Cuba, the Commission examined current and likely future travel by U.S. citizens to Cuba absent restrictions. Precise numbers of total U.S. citizens traveling to Cuba are not available from either Cuban or U.S. sources. The Cuban government requires Cuban emerges returning to Cuba to do so using a Cuban passport, and thus these visitors are recorded as returning Cuban citizens, rather than visitors from their current country of residence. Consequently, Cuban Americans, who represent the majority of ethnic Cubans living outside Cuba, are not reported as visitors from the United States. Using the Cuban government’s methodology, whereby only “non-Cuban born” U.S. residents are counted; arrivals to Cuba from the United States were 37,233 in 2005. In 2006, Cuba reported 34,000 non-Cuban-born visitors from the United States. These numbers represented about half of the number in 2000, likely owing to the tightening of OFAC licensing 141 CRS report, issues for the 111th congress

122

restrictions on travel to Cuba in both 2004 and 2005. U.S. government data on travel licenses for Cuban-Americans to visit family in Cuba are only available from 2004 to 2006 (see table 3.1), and the short time series precludes analysis of trends. Moreover, such data cannot provide an accurate account of the actual number of licensed persons that chose to travel to Cuba because multiple individuals may travel on certain types of licenses. Furthermore, even with such data, estimating the precise number is complicated by the high level of illegal travel by U.S. residents to Cuba who travels to Cuba each year without OFAC licenses. Estimates of such unauthorized visitors exceed 120,000 per year. Such travelers transit through third countries en route to Cuba from the United States. Although no complete data exist on Cuban-American visits and total U.S. visitors to Cuba, several estimates have been made. In 2002, statistics estimated that 120,000 Cuban Americans traveled to Cuba in 2000. 3) Effects on agriculture sector Travel restriction on Cuba is a double edged weapon because of its double impact on both the tourism sector and the agricultural sector as well. As we mentioned above that" Growth in Cubaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s tourism sector will likely increase Cuban demand for food imports. An increasingly vibrant tourism industry in Cuba will not only require more and better quality food for foreign visitors, but will likely continue to increase demand for food by Cuba citizens that work in tourism and related services." We can see the real impact of the travel restrictions on the agriculture sector through the following table: Estimated effects of removing U.S.travel restrictions on U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba

Commodity

Wheat Rice Corn Animal food

Soybeans Fats& oils Dry beans Poultry Beef

Cuban imports U.S. share from U.S. of Cuban imports With restrictions Million$ percent 51 38 40 24 43 71 42 76 32 99 22 57 20 25 45 65 0.1 0.2

Cuban imports U.S. share of from U.S. Cuban imports Without restrictions Million$ percent 52-53 38 40 24 43-44 71 43 76 32- 33 99-100 23-24 57 20 25 46-48 65 1-3 3-7

123

Pork Milk powder

Other dairy Processed food Forest products Fish

14 13 0.1 1

42 10 0.3 2

15-16 13 0.3-1 4-9

42 10 2-4 5-11

1-4

5-11

products Source; United States international trade commission

Major arguments made for lifting the Cuba travel ban are that it abridges the rights of ordinary Americans to travel; it hinders efforts to influence conditions in Cuba and may be aiding Castro by helping restrict the flow of information; and Americans can travel to other countries with communist or authoritarian governments. Besides that the travel restrictions harm the U.S. farmers and also according to a recent report prepared for the Center for International Policy, a policy group that advocates lifting the embargo, U.S. economic output would expand by $1.18 $1.61 billion, with the creation of between 16,888 and 23,020 jobs if travel restrictions were lifted. Major arguments in opposition to lifting the Cuba travel ban are that more American travels would support Castroâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s rule by providing his government with potentially millions of dollars in hard currency, however there are legal provisions allowing travel to Cuba for humanitarian purposes that are used by thousands of Americans each year; and that the President should be free to restrict travel for foreign policy reasons. Thus, what would be the next proposal on travel restrictions? Would the United States reconsider its position towards Cuba? Could policy makers use Cuba as a tool to recover from the economic problems the USA faces?...

124

William E. Gladstone

Chairman :- Moemen Abbas

Vice chairlady:- Nourhan Magdy

Ranking Member:- Sama Ali

125

Party Consultant:- Ibrahem Maher History of the Senate Committee on the Judiciary

Established in 1816 as one of the original standing committees in the United States Senate, the Senate Committee on the Judiciary is one of the most influential committees in Congress. Its broad legislative jurisdiction has assured its primary role as a forum for the public discussion of social and constitutional issues. The Committee is also responsible for oversight of key activities of the executive branch, and is responsible for the initial stages of the confirmation process of all judicial nominations for the federal judiciary.142

MAC 2011: Committee on the Judiciary

Committee on the judiciary has been always a source of the social awareness in Cairo University and the Faculty of Economics and Political science. This year it continues its progress enhancing the cultural mentality of Civil rights within the Egyptian youth. By taking mutual social problems that may happen all over the world that will enhance the understanding of how it happens, why and what are its results on the society. There for our committee decided to be one of many keys of the solution.

Outline

First Topic: Civil rights First sub-topic: Abortion -

Definition & Back ground History Statistics Reasons & Risks Types 1) Spontaneous abortion (miscarriage)

142 “United States Senate”,”www.senate.gov”,(11/10/2010).

126

2) Induced abortion -

Stem cell research 1) stem cell 2) embryonic cell Religious opinion Abortion vs. healthcare

Second sub-topic: trafficking -

Definition & Back ground History statistics Reasons Types 1- Child abuse 2- Women abuse

- Conditions - facing trafficking

Second Topic: Guantanamo -

History Back ground Circumstances & conditions Cuba's side Human rights violations Habeas corpus 1) Definition 2) Federal law 3) Military commission act 4) Case study

Release of prisoners Guantanamo bay TO BE or NOT TO BE

127

First Topic: Civil Rights Civil Rights in USA

The civil rights movement in the United States has a long history, beginning with the political framing of the U.S. Constitution in 1789, which compromised the rights of African Americans. The issue of black civil rights continued as a center point of American domestic conflict through the Nullification Crisis of 1840, the U.S. Civil War (1861–1865), the adoption of the Thirteenth, Fourteenth, and Fifteenth Amendments, the Plessy v. Ferguson "separate but equal" decision of 1896, and the "Jim Crow" segregation tradition that defined the next five decades in the American South. However, when the "civil rights movement" is discussed, it almost always focuses on the issue of black civil rights in the era beginning in 1954 with the Brown v. Board of Education decision, which declared that, in the field of public education, "separate but equal has no place." This decision, in both policy and symbolism, marked the beginning of the modern civil rights movement. It was followed a year later by a second Brown decision that ordered schools to be desegregated "with all deliberate speed." For a decade following the Brown decisions, the civil rights movement focused largely on the issue of de jure discrimination, or discrimination by law. The first major crisis in civil rights took place in Montgomery, Alabama, when an African-American seamstress named Rosa Parks refused to move to the back of a public bus as required by law. When Parks was arrested, a young black pastor named Martin Luther King Jr. (1929–1968) helped to lead a boycott of Montgomery's city buses. The nearly year-long boycott led to a Supreme Court decision requiring the desegregation of the buses, thus affirming the effectiveness of the nonviolent civil disobedience advocated by King. The first major legislative accomplishment of the movement came with the passage of the 1957 Civil Rights Act, which was the first legislative action related to civil rights since the period of Reconstruction following the Civil War. The act was mostly symbolic in nature, but it established a Civil Rights Commission to study the problem and created a Civil Rights Division in the Department of Justice. Both of these actions served to establish preconditions for subsequent civil-rights successes in the 1960s. Civil rights became the leading national domestic issue in 1963. In April, Sheriff "Bull" Conner turned fire hoses and guard dogs on civil-rights demonstrators in Birmingham, Alabama. Television coverage of the events caused nationwide outrage about treatment of the demonstrators, and forced President Kennedy to put civil rights at the top of his domestic agenda. He endorsed the March on Washington, in which 250,000 protestors gathered in the nation's capital to support civil rights and heard King deliver his now-famous "I Have a Dream" speech. Kennedy also pushed for a comprehensive civil rights bill, which the House Judiciary Committee brought to the full House with its recommendation for passage just before Kennedy's death in November 1963. President Lyndon B. Johnson (1908–1973), who succeeded Kennedy, immediately told the American people that nothing could honor Kennedy's memory 128

more than the passage of Kennedy's civil rights bill. Under Johnson's leadership, the seminal Civil Rights Act of 1964, which included provisions for public accommodations and fair employment, was enacted. The next year Congress passed the Voting Rights Act of 1965, which authorized the use of federal voter registrars to help African Americans register to vote. These two major acts largely marked the end of discrimination by law.

First Sub-Topic: Abortion ‘’ Is it a matter of life or a matter of choice? ’’ Define Abortion: The classic definition of abortion is "expulsion of the fetus before it is viable." This could include spontaneous abortion (miscarriage) or induced abortion, in which someone (a doctor, the woman herself, or a layperson) causes the abortion.143

Back ground on Abortion: While modern technology is quite new in historical terms, the practice of abortion and menstrual "regulation" is ancient. Traditional methods have been handed down for hundreds of generations and herbal and other methods have roots in the distant past. It should be noted that many ancient and medieval methods and preparations are extremely risky and many are not at all effective, so experimentation is quite unwise. Abortion was recorded in 1550 B.C.E. in Egypt, recorded in what is called the Ebers Papyrus (note 2) and in ancient China about 500 B.C.E. as well (note 3). In China, folklore dates the use of mercury to induce abortions to about 5,000 years ago (note 4). Of course, mercury is extremely toxic144

143 “Marriage and Family Encyclopedia“,”http://family.jrank.org/pages/1/Abortion-Definition-Abortion.html”, (11/17/2010). 144“About”,”http://womenshistory.about.com/od/abortion/a/ancientabortion.htm”,(11/13/2010).

129

History of Abortion: In the United States, abortion laws began to appear in the 1820s, forbidding abortion after the fourth month of pregnancy. Through the efforts primarily of physicians, the American Medical Association, and legislators, most abortions in the US had been outlawed by 1900. By 1965, all fifty states banned abortion, with some exceptions which varied by state: to save the life of the mother, in cases of rape or incest, or if the fetus was deformed. The Supreme Court in 1973, in the case of Roe v. Wade, declared most existing state abortion laws unconstitutional. This decision ruled out any legislative interference in the first trimester of pregnancy and put limits on what restrictions could be passed on abortions in later stages of pregnancy. Opposition to abortions has increasingly turned physical and even violent -- first in the organized blocking of access to clinics which provided abortion services, organized primarily by Operation Rescue, founded in 1984 and led by Randall Terry. On Christmas Day, 1984, three abortion clinics were bombed, and those convicted called the bombings "a birthday gift for Jesus." The latest major conflict over abortion laws has been over termination of late pregnancies, termed "partial birth abortions" by those who oppose them. Pro-choice advocates maintain that such abortions are to save the life or health of the mother or terminate pregnancies where the fetus cannot survive birth or cannot serve enough after birth. Pro-life advocates maintain that the fetuses may be saved and that many of these abortions are done in cases that aren't hopeless.145 Statistics on abortion Nearly half of pregnancies among American women are unintended, and four in 10 of these are terminated by abortion. Twenty-two percent of all pregnancies (excluding miscarriages) end in abortion.

145 “About”,”http://womenshistory.about.com/od/abortionuslegal/a/abortion.htm”,(11/19/2010).

130

Forty percent of pregnancies among white women, 69% among blacks and 54% among Hispanics are unintended. In 2005, 1.21 million abortions were performed, down from 1.31 million in 2000. From 1973 through 2005, more than 45 million legal abortions occurred. Each year, two percent of women aged 15-44 have an abortion; half have had at least one previous abortion. At least half of American women will experience an unintended pregnancy by age 45, and, at current rates, about one-third will have had an abortion.

WHO HAS ABORTIONS? Eighteen percent of U.S. women obtaining abortions are teenagers; those aged 15-17 obtain 6% of all abortions, teens aged 18-19 obtain 11%, and teens under age 15 obtain 0.4%. Women in their twenties account for more than half of all abortions; women aged 20â&#x20AC;&#x201C;24 obtain 33% of all abortions, and women aged 25-29 obtain 24%. Thirty percent of abortions occur to non-Hispanic black women, 36% to non-Hispanic white women, 25% to Hispanic women and 9% to women of other races. Thirty-seven percent of women obtaining abortions identify as Protestant and 28% as Catholic. Women who have never married and are not cohabiting account for 45% of all abortions. About 61% of abortions are obtained by women who have one or more children. The reasons women give for having an abortion underscore their understanding of the responsibilities of parenthood and family life. Three-fourths of women cite concern for or responsibility to other individuals; three-fourths say they cannot afford a child; three-fourths say that having a baby would interfere with work, school or the ability to care for dependents; and half say they do not want to be a single parent or are having problems with their husband or partner.

PROVIDERS AND SERVICES 131

The number of U.S. abortion providers declined by 2% between 2000 and 2005 (from 1,819 to 1,787). Eighty-seven percent of all U.S. counties lacked an abortion provider in 2005; 35% of women live in those counties. Forty percent of providers offer very early abortions (even before the first missed period) and 96% offer abortion at eight weeks from the last menstrual period. Sixty-seven percent of providers offer at least some second-trimester abortion services (13 weeks or later), and 20% offer abortion after 20 weeks. Only 8% of all abortion providers offer abortions at 24 weeks. In 2005, the cost of a nonhospital abortion with local anesthesia at 10 weeksâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; gestation ranged from $90 to $1,800; the average amount paid was $413. When women have abortions* Eighty-eight percent of abortions occur in the first 12 weeks of pregnancy, 2006.

MEDICATION ABORTION In September 2000, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved mifepristone to be marketed in the United States as an alternative to surgical abortion. In 2005, 57% of abortion providers, or 1,026 facilities, provided one or more medication abortions, a 70% increase from the first half of 2001. At least 10% of nonhospital abortion providers offer only medication abortion services. Medication abortion accounted for 13% of all abortions, and 22% of abortions before nine weeksâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; gestation, in 2005. SAFETY OF ABORTION The risk of abortion complications is minimal: Fewer than 0.3% of abortion patients experience a complication that requires hospitalization.

132

Abortions performed in the first trimester pose virtually no long-term risk of such problems as infertility, ectopic pregnancy, spontaneous abortion (miscarriage) or birth defect, and little or no risk of preterm or low-birth-weight deliveries. In repeated studies since the early 1980s, leading experts have concluded that abortion does not pose a hazard to women’s mental health. The risk of death associated with abortion increases with the length of pregnancy, from one death for every one million abortions at or before eight weeks to one per 29,000 at 16–20 weeks—and one per 11,000 at 21 or more weeks. Fifty-eight percent of abortion patients say they would have liked to have had their abortion earlier. Nearly 60% of women who experienced a delay in obtaining an abortion cite the time it took to make arrangements and raise money. Teens are more likely than older women to delay having an abortion until after 15 weeks of pregnancy, when the medical risks associated with abortion are significantly higher. LAW AND POLICY In the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision, the Supreme Court ruled that women, in consultation with their physician, have a constitutionally protected right to have an abortion in the early stages of pregnancy—that is, before viability—free from government interference. In 1992, the Court reaffirmed the right to abortion in Planned Parenthood v. Casey. However, the ruling significantly weakened the legal protections previously afforded women and physicians by giving states the right to enact restrictions that do not create an “undue burden” for women seeking abortion. Thirty-four states currently enforce parental consent or notification laws for minors seeking an abortion. The Supreme Court ruled that minors must have an alternative to parental involvement, such as the ability to seek a court order authorizing the procedure. Even without specific parental involvement laws, six in 10 minors who have an abortion report that at least one parent knew about it. Congress has barred the use of federal Medicaid funds to pay for abortions, except when the woman’s life would be endangered by a full-term pregnancy or in cases of rape or incest. Seventeen states use public funds to pay for abortions for some poor women, but only four do so voluntarily; the rest do so under a court order. About 20% of abortion patients report using Medicaid to pay for abortions (virtually all in states where abortion services are paid for with state dollars). Family planning clinics funded under Title X of the federal Public Health Service Act have helped women prevent 20 million unintended pregnancies during the last 20 years. An estimated nine million of these pregnancies would have ended in abortion.146 146 “Guttmacher Institute”,”http://www.guttmacherinstitute.com/pubs/fb_induced_abortion.html”,(11/19/2010).

133

Abortion Reasons In the United States, about 6 million women become pregnant per year. Each year, nearly 1.2 million American women have an abortion to end a pregnancy. The most common reasons women consider abortion are: 

Birth control (contraceptive) failure. Over half of all women who have an abortion used a contraceptive method during the month they became pregnant.



Inability to support or care for a child.



To end an unwanted pregnancy.



 

To prevent the birth of a child with birth defects or severe medical problems. Such defects are often unknown until routine second-trimester tests are done. Pregnancy resulting from rape or incest. Physical or mental conditions that endanger the woman's health if the pregnancy is continued.



Awareness that they are not mature enough to have children.



Knowledge that they are financially not able to support or care for children.



Concern that having a baby would change their lives and compromise their (and a child's) future. Many young mothers don't ever manage to get the education and employment necessary to raise their children above the poverty line.147

Illegal abortion An abortion performed without professional medical care (illegally) has a much greater risk of complications than one performed legally with good medical care. Teen pregnancy

147“Webmd”, “http://women.webmd.com/tc/abortion-reasons-women-choose-abortion”,(10/29/2010).

134

About 30% of pregnant teens choose to have an abortion.4 About 60% of women under age 18 who have an abortion have a parent who knows of the abortion, and the majority of these parents support their daughters' decisions.4 (In the United States, some states require a parent's consent for women under the age of 18 before they can have an abortion. But in these states a minor has the right to seek a court order allowing an abortion without a parent's consent.4

Abortion Risks Abortion isn't necessarily as "safe and easy" as many make it out to be. Here is a list of the risks of abortion - surgical and chemical: Surgical Abortions:



  

FUTURE ECTOPIC PREGNANCIES: Studies point out that the risk of an ectopic or tubal (not in the uterus but in the tubes that lead to the uterus) ;pregnancy is 30% higher for women who have had one abortion, and up to four times higher for women with two or more abortions. When a woman has an Ectopic pregnancy she has a 12% risk of dying in a future pregnancy. PELVIC INFLAMMATORY DISEASE (PID): 5% of women suffer PID following induced (or surgical) abortion. PID can lead to fever and infertility (not being able to get pregnant again). There is a 23% higher risk of infection if you have an STD (Sexually Transmitted Disease). 40% of the sexually active are suspected carriers of STDs. BREAST CANCER: Reputable studies suggests that women who abort face a 50% increase in breast cancer. If the woman has a family history of breast cancer, this rate doubles with each successive abortion, if the woman is under 18 or over 30 years of age when the abortion takes place. ABRUPTIO PLACENTA: Abruptio Placenta is a condition in pregnancy where the sac holding the baby (the placenta) tears away from the uterine lining. This can result in extreme and severe life-threatening bleeding. Women who have experienced abortion have a 600% increase in their risk for Abruptio Placenta in future pregnancies. 135

INFERTILITY: Infertility and sterility mean that a woman cannot get pregnant. Abortion causes sterility in 2-5% of the women who have an abortion.

           

PSYCHOLOGICAL/EMOTIONAL TRAUMA: 50% of women who have had abortions report experiencing emotional and psychological problems lasting for months or years. These emotions include, but aren't limited to: depression anger preoccupation with babies or getting pregnant again nightmares sexual dysfunction termination of relationships emotional coldness increased alcohol and drug abuse eating disorders flashbacks of the abortion procedure repeat abortions suicide Many of these women go on to report that they regret their choice and would do anything to go back and undo the decision that resulted in so much pain. MEDICAL (CHEMICAL) ABORTION RISKS INCLUDE (BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO):

"The Morning After Pill" (Emergency Contraception Pill) - If taken within 72 hours of intercourse it prevents pregnancy 75% of the time. Medical problems would be similar to birth control pills, however effects could be more pronounced.

Psychological/ Emotional Trauma: In addition to the risks listed above, women having chemical abortions often see the complete tiny bodies of their unborn child and are even able to see the child's developing hands, eyes, etc. So traumatic is this for some women that it is recommended that women unprepared for the experience not take the drugs. Types of abortion:

136

1. Spontaneous abortion or miscarriages - is a type of abortion that occur without medical or other intervention. About 25% of all pregnancies result in miscarriages. Women older than 35 or younger than 17 years old, and couples who have difficulty in achieving pregnancy. About 90% of miscarriages occur during the first trimester (first three months, or 12 weeks of pregnancy). Some cases of miscarriages happen even before .a woman realizes that she is pregnant, and she even may not realize that she has aborted

Medical names of the various stages of actual or possible miscarriages:  Threatened abortion is a condition of pregnancy, occurring before the 20thweek of gestation, the patient usually experiences vaginal bleeding with or without some cramps,.  Inevitable abortion is when the bleeding continues and becomes heavy, it usually means that the cervix is dilating and the contents of the uterus are being expelled.  Complete abortion is when all the contents are expelled. All of the tissues that came out should be saved for examination by a doctor to make sure that the abortion is complete. The laboratory examination of the saved tissue may determine the cause of abortion.  Incomplete abortion is a name given to abortion where the uterus retains part or the entire placenta. Bleeding may occur because part of the placenta may adhere to the uterine wall and the uterus does not contract to seal the large blood vessels that feed the placenta. Missed abortion - is a case in which an intrauterine pregnancy is present but is no longer developing normally. Before widespread use of ultrasonography, the term missed abortion was applied to pregnancies with no uterine growth over a prolonged period of time, typically 6 weeks after its (fetus) death. A missed abortion is usually indicated by the disappearance of the signs of pregnancy except for the continued absence of menstrual periods 2. Induced abortion - this type of abortion uses drugs or instruments to stop the normal course of pregnancy. 137

Different methods for performing abortions. ď&#x201A;ˇ Menstrual Extraction (endometrial or vacuum aspiration). This method is used for most abortions performed during the first trimester. It is done by suctioning out the lining of the uterus (endometrial) through a thin opening of the undiluted cervix. It is a method used after a woman has just missed a period, or anytime up to about the eight week of pregnancy. It can be performed safely in the doctor's office and has a very low rate of mortality. ď&#x201A;ˇ Dilation and Evacuation (D & E) (also called vacuum suction or suction curettage) and Dilation and Curettage (D & C). This method is commonly used for late first trimester or early second trimester abortions. In this method suction is used to remove the fetus and placenta.Some doctors use a hollow, spoon-shaped knife, or curette, to ensure that all the placental tissues are removed by scraping the uterine walls. ď&#x201A;ˇ Hysterectomy. This method is similar to caesarian section, the uterus is opened through a small abdominal incision and the fetus is removed. Hysterectomy is usually performed only when other methods have failed repeatedly; it is performed under general anesthesia. It is used between the 12th and the 24th week of pregnancy. This method has the greatest risk of complications out of all the abortion procedures; maternal mortality rate is approximately 200 per 100,000 abortions. ( this method is hardly used anymore due to the great risk of complications that may lead to mortality )

What are stem cells, and why are they important? Stem cells have the remarkable potential to develop into many different cell types in the body during early life and growth. In addition, in many tissues they serve as a sort of internal repair system, dividing essentially without limit to replenish other cells as long as the person or animal is still alive. When a stem cell divides, each new cell has the potential either to remain a stem cell or become another type of cell with a more specialized function, such as a muscle cell, a red blood cell, or a brain cell. Stem cells are distinguished from other cell types by two important characteristics. First, they are unspecialized cells capable of renewing themselves through cell division, even if they have been inactive for a long period. Second, under certain physiologic or experimental conditions, they can be induced to become tissue- or organ-specific cells with special functions. In some organs, such as the gut and bone marrow, stem cells regularly divide to repair and replace worn out or damaged tissues. II. What are the unique properties of all stem cells?

138

Stem cells differ from other kinds of cells in the body. All stem cells—regardless of their source —have three general properties: they are capable of dividing and renewing themselves for long periods; they are unspecialized; and they can give rise to specialized cell types.

What are embryonic stem cells? Embryonic stem cells, as their name suggests, are derived from embryos. Most embryonic stem cells are derived from embryos that develop from eggs that have been fertilized in an in vitro fertilization clinic—and then donated for research purposes with informed consent of the donors Somatic (adult) stem cell Adult stem cells are taken from a specific body tissue, or organ, and they too are able to selfreplicate over long periods of time. The primary difference between embryonic and adult cells is their ability to differentiate and develop into many cell types. Adult stem cells can only reproduce cells of its type, whereas embryonic stem cells can reproduce any cell type within the body. The term “adult stem cells” is misleading because babies and children have them as well. Adult stem cells are also referred to as multipotent stem cells. Multipotent means that they can only generate the cell types in the particular organ in which they are found. However, some

139

studies suggest that under certain conditions adult stem cells may be able to give rise to cell types of other tissues as well148

consideration A great deal of controversy surrounds the methods used in stem cell research study. The practice of using embryonic cells is at question due to varied definitions of when a human life begins. The process of removing stem cells from an embryo, in effect, destroys the cell. Pro-life advocates consider such an act to be the taking of a human life, or murder. Also of concern are the cloning capabilities inherent within the stem cell process Proponents of stem cell research stress the treatment benefits in pursuing the study of embryonic cells, stating further discoveries in the field can lead to a number of treatment possibilities for conditions considered untreatable. Currently there are laws in place of varied degree which prohibit researchers from fully exploring the possibilities within the field. As such, researchers are working on ways of manipulating adult stem cells to perform like embryonic cells.149 How can stem cells be used to treat disease? Researchers are exploring two main avenues for using stem cells to treat disease. 1) Stem cells as “replacement parts.” A wide range of diseases (heart disease, Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s, diabetes, motor neuron disease, etc.) may be amenable to stem cell therapy if stem cells can be made to go to the appropriate place in the body and become the appropriate cell type. For example, if stem cells could be made to migrate to an injured spinal cord and become nerve cells, it might be possible to cure paralysis. 2) Developing drug therapies. It is possible to make stem cells that are genetically identical to those of a patient with a disease such as amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. The stem cells can be made to generate the cell type that is defective in that disease (e.g. nerve cells). By studying these cells, researchers can gain insight into what goes wrong at the molecular level in the disease. They can also use these cells to test drugs that might block the progression of the disease.150 148 “Bookrags“,”http://www.bookrags.com/research/somatic-cell-genetics-wog/”,(11/25/2010). 149 “Ehow“,”http://www.ehow.com/about_4577659_history-stem-cell-research.html”,(11/14/2010). 150 “Ucsd”,”http://stemcells.ucsd.edu/stemcell_101.asp”,(11/19/2010).

140

Safe alternatives to stem cell: Scientists have invented an efficient way to produce apparently safe alternatives to human embryonic stem cells without destroying embryos, a long-sought step toward bypassing the moral morass surrounding one of the most promising fields in medicine. Experiments have proved that synthetic biological signals can quickly reprogram ordinary skin cells into entities that appear virtually identical to embryonic stem cells. Moreover, the same strategy can then turn those cells into ones that could be used for transplants. The cells produced by the Harvard team, known as induced pluripotent stem cells, or iPS cells, would avoid that ethical objection and could in some ways be superior to embryonic stem cells. For example, iPS cells could enable scientists to take an easily obtainable skin cell from any patient and use it to create perfectly matched cells, tissue and potentially even entire organs for transplants that would be immune to rejection. The research: The announcement comes as the future of federal funding for embryonic stem cell research hangs in doubt. A federal judge stunned the field Aug. 23 by ruling that the Obama administration's more permissive policy for funding the research violated a federal law barring taxpayer money from being used for studies that involve destroying human embryos. Opponents of human embryonic stem cell research seized on the development as the most convincing evidence yet that the morally questionable cells are unnecessary. With each new study it becomes more and more implausible to claim that scientists must rely on destruction of human embryos to achieve rapid progress in regenerative medicine. But this research in no way reduces the importance of comparing the resulting iPS cells to human embryonic stem cells. Previous research has shown that iPS cells retain some memory of their tissue of origin, which may have important implications for their use in therapeutics. To explore these important potential differences, iPS research must continue to be conducted side by side with human embryonic cell research.

141

In 2006, researchers discovered that they could coax adult cells into a state that appeared identical to embryonic stem cells and then, just like embryonic stem cells, morph these iPS cells into various tissues. But the process involved inserting genes into cells using retroviruses, which raised the risk that the cells could cause cancer. Since then, scientists have been trying to develop safer methods. Several approaches using chemicals or other types of viruses have shown promise. But none has eliminated the safety concerns, and most have been slow and balky. The research VS the fund: In issuing the preliminary injunction blocking, U.S. District Judge Royce C. Lamberth said it the funding violated the Dickey-Wicker Amendment, a 1999 law intended to prevent federal tax dollars from being used to destroy human embryos. Days-old embryos are destroyed to obtain embryonic stem cells, which researcher hope will be able to cure Alzheimer's, Parkinson's disease, diabetes, spinal cord injuries and a host of other ailments because they can be turned into almost any type of tissue in the body. The federal government has funded research using the cells as long as the money is not used directly to destroy the embryos. Scientists have conducted studies only on cells obtained using private funding. But Lamberth ruled that distinction was invalid. Bush had limited federal funding to experiments using 21 colonies of cells that were already in existence on Aug. 9, 2001, to prevent taxpayer dollars from encouraging the destruction of further embryos. President Obama lifted those restrictions, and the NIH issued new guidelines to enable more cells to be eligible for federal funding. The NIH had approved 75 lines before the ruling. Some researchers could continue their experiments using funding from private foundations and benefactors or state funding. Others could shift their research to related studies, such as examining stem cells obtained from adults or induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cells, which are created from adult cells. Critics of human embryonic stem cell research argue those cells are as good if not superior. But many researchers said embryonic stem cells remain critical, if only to be able to truly test the usefulness of the alternatives.

Religious Opinion Judaism

142

The Torah or Jewish law forbids the taking of innocent life and stresses that human beings are made in the image of God. Maimonides, a twelfth century interpreter of Jewish law declared: "A descendent of Noah who kills any human being, even a foetus in its mother's womb, is to be put to death." The only exception was if the mother's life was in danger. However, even though traditional Judaism condemns abortion, there has been considerable argument within the Jewish community since the 1960s about whether abortion is permissible.151 Early Christian Tradition Judeo-Christian tradition going back thousands of years has always valued human life, including unborn human life. The Bible repeatedly refers to children before birth as simply very small/young children. In Luke's Gospel, Jesus and John the Baptist 'greet' one another whilst they are still in the wombs of their mothers. Verse 41 of the first chapter says: "It happened, when Elizabeth heard Mary's greeting, the baby leaped in her womb, and Elizabeth was filled with the Holy Spirit." Psalm 139 describes the development of the unborn baby: "For you created my inmost being, you knit me together in my mother's womb. I praise you because I am fearfully and wonderfully made; your works are wonderful, I know that full well. My frame was not hidden from you when I was made in the secret place. When I was woven together in the depths of the earth, your eyes saw my unformed body." One of the earliest Christian writings, the Didache or the Teaching of the Twelve Apostles states: "You shall not kill the child in the womb or murder a new-born infant." The Catholic Church The Catholic Church opposes abortion because it believes that life is sacred and inviolable. In 1995, Pope John Paul II wrote an encyclical letter called Evangelium Vitae (the Gospel of Life) in which he spoke of "the sacred value of human life from its very beginning" and of the struggle between the Culture of Life and the Culture of Death. The Orthodox Churches

151 “Spuc“,”http://www.spuc.org.uk/students/abortion/religion”,(12/01/2010).

143

Generally, the Orthodox Churches forbid abortion as going against the commandment 'Thou shalt not kill'. The Russian Orthodox Church condemned abortion in its The Church and the Nation published in 2000.

Protestant denominations Many Protestant and Evangelical Christians are against abortion. In Northern Ireland, Catholics and Protestants have united against abortion. However, some denominations are more proabortion. The Church of England states that the unborn child is alive and created by God. The 1993 General Synod stated that "the number of abortions carried out since the passage of the Abortion Act 1967 is unacceptably high." However, the Church of England also believes that abortion is sometimes morally acceptable such as when a baby is suffering from a serious disability.152 -Abortion in Islam : Islam's approach to the issue of birth control and abortion is very balanced. It allows women to prevent pregnancy but forbids them to terminate it. In case of rape the woman should use the morning after pill or RU486 immediately after the sexual assault in order to prevent the possible implantation of a fertilized ovum. Modern technology (like ultra sound scan) has made it possible to know whether or not a child has a defect long before he is born. Some people justify the abortion of a defective fetus. The Shari'ah allows abortion only when doctors declare with reasonable certainty that the continuation of pregnancy will endanger the woman's life. The Prophet said, "When two forbidden things come [upon a person] together, then the lesser will be sacrificed for the greater." In the present case, one is faced with two forbidden things: either abort the unborn child or let a living woman die. Obviously, the latter is greater than the former; therefore, abortion is allowed to save the live person. The Hanafi school (prevalent in Turkey, the Middle East and Central Asia) allows abortions to take place principally until day 120; some jurists restrict this provision to “good cause”, e.g. if the mother is still nursing an infant and fears that her milk may run out during the new pregnancy. In aborting up to day 120, the woman commits a mere moral transgression, not a crime. The Shafi school (dominant in Southeast Asia, southern Arabia, parts of East Africa) allows abortions to be performed up to day 120. For the Maliki school (prevalent in North and Black Africa) an abortion is permissible with the consent of

152“ Spuc”,“http://www.spuc.org.uk/students/abortion/religion”,(12/01/2010).

144

both parents up to day 40; it is no longer allowed after that. For the Hanbali school (predominant in Saudi Arabia and United Arabic Emirates) abortions are principally prohibited from day 40 onward. 153

Abortion Vs Health Care

-Access to Abortion Coverage and Health Reform: Women’s issues have emerged as central to the debate on health care reform. Access to abortion services has become one of the most highly charged elements of the debate. This issue has been handled differently in both the bill that was approved by the House of Representatives, H.R. 3962, the Affordable Health Care for America Act, and the bill approved by the Senate, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, H.R. 3590. The way that Congress addresses abortion coverage under health reform has the potential to affect many women, as abortion is one of the most common surgical procedures performed on women. This brief discusses current law regarding federal and state policies that address abortion coverage, lays out key issues being debated regarding abortion coverage under health reform, and raises questions about the possible impact of the House and Senate legislation on women’s coverage for abortion services. -What are current federal and state laws regarding insurance coverage for abortion? . Current federal law bans the use of any federal funds for abortion, except in the event of rape, incest, or the woman’s life endangerment, as specified in the federal Hyde Amendment, which has been in effect since 1977.This amendment is not a permanent law; rather it has been attached annually to Congressional appropriations bills, and has been approved every year by the Congress. The broadest reach of the Hyde Amendment is on the Medicaid program, basically limiting federal Medicaid funding for abortions to life endangerment, rape, or incest cases in most states. States can choose to broaden the circumstances to cover other “medically necessary” abortions for women on Medicaid with their own funds and 17 states do, but in the majority of states women on Medicaid only have coverage in cases of rape, incest, or when the pregnancy is documented by a physician to be a threat to the life of the woman. Over the years, the Hyde Amendment has been broadened to limit federal funds for abortion for federal employees, in the Indian Health Service, and women in the military. State level policies can also affect abortion coverage. States have the authority to regulate benefits covered by private insurance plans. Currently, five states (Idaho, Kentucky, Missouri, 153“ Islam awareness”,”http://www.islamawareness.net/FamilyPlanning/Abortion/abortion3.html”,(11/05/2010).

145

North Dakota, Oklahoma) prohibit private insurance coverage for abortions except in the case of rape, incest, or to save the woman’s life. These states allow insurers to sell riders for abortion coverage, but there is little evidence that riders are actually available in these states and there is no documentation of their cost or impact on access.

-How do the House and Senate bills address coverage of abortion? While both the House and Senate bills specify that abortion coverage shall not be included in any essential benefits package, the House bill, H.R. 3962 and Senate bill, H.R. 3590 differ regarding the exact limitations on abortion coverage. Both bills expand coverage to many of the nation’s uninsured by extending Medicaid eligibility to all qualifying individuals (with incomes up to 150% of the federal poverty level in the House and up to 133% of poverty in the Senate). The House bill establishes a national health insurance exchange that would essentially be a marketplace where individuals with incomes above 150% of poverty can purchase insurance coverage. Initially, the Exchange would be open to all qualifying people who are uninsured and employees of some small businesses, with the possibility of opening to more people over time..154 Both bills place restrictions on federal coverage of abortion, but the restrictions in the House bill are slightly farther reaching. The most direct impact of both bills is on the plans that will be offered in the new health insurance exchanges. According to the House legislation, the public plan within the Exchange would be prohibited from providing coverage for abortions beyond those permitted by current federal law (to save the life of the woman or in cases of rape or incest). The House bill also prohibits federal premium credits that low-income individuals will receive from the federal government from being used to purchase a health plan in the Exchange that includes coverage for all but federally permitted abortions. Although it is not required, private insurers may opt to offer a plan in the Exchange that covers abortions beyond those permitted by federal law. These insurers, however, will be required to also offer an identical plan that does not cover abortions for which federal funding is prohibited. Private plans participating in the Exchange may choose to offer supplemental coverage for abortions in the form of riders that are totally separate from other benefits, but that coverage must be paid for entirely with nonfederal funds. Furthermore, the plans must be separately operated to assure that federal funds are not used to administer or operate plans that cover abortions. Both the House and Senate bills include clauses prohibiting plans in the exchanges from discriminating against any provider because of an “unwillingness” to provide abortions. However, neither bill includes similar protection for providers because of their “willingness” to 154 Congressional Budget Office, Letter to Congressman John Dingell Regarding H.R. 3962, November 6, 2009.

146

provide abortions. The new proposals from the House and Senate are significant departures from current law and go much further in terms of limiting coverage. As the health reform process moves toward conclusion, differences between the House and Senate bills on abortion are a point of considerable debate and need to be reconciled before a final bill can be passed. Table 1: Side-by-Side Comparison of Abortion Provisions in House and Senate Health Reform Bills House (HR 3962) Senate (HR 3590) House Senate Benefit design 2Prohibit abortion Prohibit abortion coverage coverage from being from being required as part required as part of the of the minimum benefits essential benefits package; package;) At least one plan within a Public Plan: Prohibited state exchange must not from providing coverage cover abortions beyond for abortions beyond those those permitted by federal permitted by federal law law (to save the life of the (to save the life of the woman and in cases of woman and in cases of rape and incest); rape and Private Plans: Can only incest); provide a plan in the Exchange that covers State may prohibit abortions beyond those coverage for any abortions permitted by federal law by all (to save the life of the plans in the exchange if woman and in cases of state passes such a law; rape and incest) if they also offer an identical and Private plans may choose separately operated plan to cover abortions beyond that does not cover federal restrictions (see abortions for which federal financing below). funding is prohibited; Private plans participating in the Exchange may, but are not required to, offer separate supplemental coverage (riders) for 147

Financing

abortions. Prohibit federal premium subsidies from being used to purchase a health plan in the Exchange that includes coverage for abortions except to save the life of the woman or in cases of rape or incest; Individuals receiving federal subsidies may purchase supplemental coverage for abortions but that coverage must be paid for entirely with non federal(e.g. state, local, and private) funds.

Prohibit federal subsidy funds (for premiums or cost sharing) from being used to pay for abortion coverage in plans that cover abortions beyond federal limitations of rape, incest, or to save life of woman; In order to segregate funds, plans that choose to offer coverage for abortions beyond federal limitations must estimate the actuarial value of covering abortions by taking into account the cost of the abortion benefit (valued at least $1 per enrollee per month) and cannot take into account any savings that might be reaped as a result of the abortions. Any exchange plan that covers abortions and includes enrollees that receive federal subsidies must collect two separate premium payments from all enrolleesâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;one payment for value of abortion benefit and one payment for all other covered services.

148

State role

Discrimination/ Protection

Law will have no effect on state laws regarding coverage, funding or procedural requirements on abortions, such as parental notification/consent laws; States may use state-only funds to pay for “medically necessary” abortions beyond federal requirements under Medicaid or to pay for supplemental coverage/riders for abortions offered by plans.

Law will have no effect on state laws regarding coverage, funding or procedural requirements on abortions, such as parental notification/consent laws; States can pass legislation prohibiting plans in exchanges from covering abortions; States may use state-only funds to pay for “medically necessary” abortions in Medicaid or to pay for abortion coverage in plans offered in an exchange;

State insurance commissioners have responsibility for oversight and enforcement of provisions related to segregation of public dollars for abortion benefit. Prohibit plans participating Prohibit plans participating in the Exchange from in the exchanges from discriminating against any discriminating against any provider because of an provider because of an unwillingness to provide, unwillingness to provide, pay for, provide coverage pay for, provide coverage of, or refer for abortions. of, or refer for abortions.

149

-How do the federal exceptions (rape, incest, and life endangerment) affect women’s access to abortion services? The House and Senate bills only allow federal funds to be used for abortions in the cases of rape, incest, or to protect the life of the woman. These narrow exemptions have raised many questions such as how a woman proves that the pregnancy is the result of rape or incest. These are not new issues, since current law includes the same provision. Regarding life endangerment, the House bill requires certification by a physician that the woman may die if she continues the pregnancy. However, this could present challenges depending on the circumstances a pregnant woman faces. For example, an ultrasound may identify a fetal anomaly at 20 weeks of gestation which indicates that the fetus will not survive. 155 While the situation may not be immediately life threatening to the woman, under the House bill restrictions, she may have to pay for an abortion out of pocket, and at this advanced stage or given a medical complication, it would likely be conducted in a hospital, significantly more expensive than a clinic-based procedure. This situation could apply to women in a multitude of circumstances, including those with underlying chronic conditions, those who develop other acute conditions during pregnancy, or those who have incomplete miscarriages that require subsequent intervention, such as a dilation and curettage (D&C). Women have much at stake in the ongoing national debate on health reform. Comprehensive coverage and the scope of benefits are at the heart of making health care accessible to women. The decisions that policy makers enact regarding access and coverage of abortion are sure to be the subject of tremendous discussion and debate, and could affect care for millions of women today and in the future.

Second sub-topic: Human Trafficking ‘’Human trafficking victims, are they a burden to society or an obligation?” Human Trafficking is a crime against humanity. It involves an act of recruiting, transporting, transferring, harboring or receiving a person through a use of force, coercion or other means, for the purpose of exploiting them. Every year, thousands of men, women and children fall into the hands of traffickers, in their own countries and abroad. Every country in the world is affected by trafficking, whether as a country of origin, transit or destination for victims.156 155 Guttmacher Institute, State Policies in Brief, November 1, 2009. 156 “Unodc”,”http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/human-trafficking/what-is-human-trafficking.html”,(11/19/2010).

150

Human trafficking is the modern equivalent of slavery, forcing, defrauding or coercing people into labor or sexual exploitation. About 600,000 to 800,000 people – mostly women and children – are trafficked across national borders each year, and experts guess that there are 27 million slaves worldwide. Human trafficking is a low-risk, high-profit enterprise, and because it looks to the casual observer – and even to cops- like normal prostitution, it is tolerated. And worse, it is growing. People are snared into trafficking by any means. In some cases, physical force is used. In other cases, false promises are made regarding job opportunities or marriages in foreign countries to entrap victims. It is easy to understand the success of the immigrant trafficking industry. People are brought here, some with visas and some without, with the promise of a new life, but then are stranded in a world where no one is looking for them. Suddenly, they are threatened with death and they are told their families back home will be killed. They have no place to run. They are afraid of authorities. Often they are told lies about what American authorities will do. They fear Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), more than their captors. They will work in hotels and construction sites for no pay; or they are prostituted, which is far more lucrative. Their only compensation is staying alive. Others are told they must pay a debt to the ones that brought them here, but the debt only grows and is rarely ever paid off.157 Statistics on Trafficking: Human Trafficking Worldwide 27 million is the number of people in modern-day slavery across the world. According to the U.S. Department of State’s 2007 Trafficking in Persons Report (TIP Report), estimates vary from 4 to 27 million. The International Labor Organization (ILO) estimates 2.4 million people were victims of human trafficking from 1995-2005. This estimate uses the UN Protocol definition of human trafficking, and includes both transnational and internal data. 157 “Do Something“,”http://www.dosomething.org/tipsandtools/background-human-trafficking”,(11/21/2010).

151

Around 800,000 people are trafficked across international borders every year. 158

Reasons of Human Trafficking While some victims are trafficked within the United States enslaving human beings who are stripped of their freedom and treated as commodities. After drug dealing, human trafficking is tied with the illegal arms industry as the second largest criminal enterprise in the world today, and it is the fastest growing. The root cause of human trafficking lays in the underlying conditions in both “source” and “destination” countries. “Push” factors leading to trafficking in people include poverty and political upheavals in “source” countries that create fertile soil for recruiting and deceiving victims. Global poverty, with its disproportionate impact on women; reduced life expectancy in many developing regions; and the impact of infectious diseases have taken their toll on indigent populations. Another “push” factor is the fact that smuggled and trafficked migrants are sources of billions of dollars of revenue sent back to their home countries, creating even further incentives for trafficking in human beings. The FBI estimates profits from human trafficking at $9.5 billion annually.

158“ Polaris Project”,”http://nhtrc.polarisproject.org/materials/Human-Trafficking-Statistics.pdf ”,(11/21/2010).

152

“Pull” factors that serve as a magnet for human trafficking in “destination” countries include the voracious demand by certain industries for cheap labor, due to fierce competition in the increasingly global economy. To put the power of the economic magnet for trade in human beings in perspective, it took transatlantic trade 400 years to import 12 million African slaves to the United States. Yet, within Southeast Asia alone an estimated 30 million women and children have been trafficked – in the past ten years. Traffickers lure victims into the United States with deceptive promises of good jobs and better lives, and then force them to work under brutal and inhuman conditions, and deprive them of their freedom. Victims of human trafficking may be involved in agricultural labor, construction labor, hotel and motel cleaning services, illegal transporters, organized theft rings, pornography, prostitution, restaurant services, domestic services, servile marriage (mail-order brides) and sweatshops. Once in this country, many suffer extreme physical and mental abuse, including rape, sexual exploitation, torture, beatings, starvation, death threats and threats to family members. A central component underlying human trafficking is also an attitude that demeans women and children, leading to the disproportionate abuse by traffickers of these population groups. The U.S. Department of State estimates that approximately 80 percent of victims trafficked from other countries are women and girls and up to 50 percent are minors. Clearly, gender inequality plays a major role in human trafficking159 So we can summarize the general reasons of human trafficking as follows:



Lack of employment opportunities



Organized crime



Regional imbalances



Economic disparities



Social discrimination



Corruption in government



Political instability

159“Ohs”,” http://www.ohs.ca.gov/pdf/Human_Trafficking_in_CA-Final_Report-2007.pdf”,(11/25/2010).

153



Armed conflict



Mass resettlement for large projects without proper Resettlement and Rehabilitation packages.



Profitability



Insufficient penalties against traffickers



Minimal law enforcement on global sex tourism industry



Legal processes that prosecute victims for prosecution instead of the traffickers.



Poor international border defense

Types of Human Trafficking: Traffickers use various techniques to instill fear in victims and to keep them enslaved. Some traffickers keep their victims under lock and key. However, the more frequent practice to use less obvious techniques include: 

Debt bonding – financial obligations, honor-bound to satisfy debt



Isolation from public – limiting contact with outsiders and making sure that any contact is monitored or superficial in nature



Isolation from family members and members of their ethnic and religious community



Confiscation of passports, visa and/or identification documents



Use or threat of violence toward victims and/or families of the victims



The threat of shaming victims by exposing circumstances to family



Telling victims they will be imprisoned or deported for immigration violations if they contact authorities



Control of the victims’ money, e.g., holding their money for “safe keeping’

154

In October 2000, the Trafficking Victims Protection Act of 2000 (TVPA) made human trafficking a Federal crime. It was enacted to prevent human trafficking overseas, to protect victims and help them rebuild their lives in the U.S., and to prosecute traffickers of humans under Federal penalties. Prior to 2000, no comprehensive Federal law existed to protect victims of trafficking or to prosecute their traffickers. BENEFITS AND SERVICES AVAILABLE Trafficking victims and their eligible family members may receive benefits and services as provided under the TVPA and Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act of 2003 (TVPRA) to the same extent as refugees. These benefits and services are federally-funded and individuals must be certified as trafficking victims by the federal Office of Refugee Resettlement To receive certification, victims of trafficking must be willing to assist with the investigation and prosecution of trafficking cases and have completed a bona fide application for a T Visa or have received continued presence status from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services in order to contribute to the prosecution of human traffickers. Once they have met these certification requirements, victims of trafficking will receive an official letter of certification from the ORR. Eligible family members of trafficking victims must hold a Derivative T Visa. Children victims of trafficking under the age of 18 do not need to be certified in order to receive services and benefits. ORR issues a letter stating that a child is a victim of a severe form of trafficking and is therefore eligible for benefits.160 Who are victims of human trafficking? Current stereotypes depict the victim of human trafficking as innocent young girls from foreign countries who are manipulated, lied to, and often kidnapped and forced into prostitution. However it is not just young international girls who are trafficked. Men, women, children of all ages, U.S. citizens, and legal residents can all fall prey to traffickers, and there are many victims of labor trafficking in addition to sex trafficking. However, all trafficking victims share common characteristics that make them vulnerable to traffickers. They often come from countries or communities with high rates of crime, poverty, and corruption; lack opportunities for education; lack family support (e.g., orphaned, runaway/thrown-away, homeless, family members collaborating with traffickers); and/or have a history of physical and/or sexual abuse.

160“Cdss”,” http://www.cdss.ca.gov/refugeeprogram/PG1268.htm”, (11/25/2010).

155

Nature of the Crime The most common and perhaps obvious challenge to identifying victims of human trafficking for those in the field is the hidden nature of the crime. Many international victims are brought into the country illegally; with traffickers using their illegal entry as a form of control. Such victims are usually unaware of their rights as victims, do not understand the laws of the United States or the language spoken; all factors helping to control the victim and keep the crime (and the victim) hidden. Both international and domestic victims are often kept isolated, with no freedom of movement. Contact with the outside world is controlled by the trafficker and often limited to those working for the trafficker, other victims, and in the case of sex trafficking, Victims become dependent on the trafficker and may not even consider themselves to be victims; another factor making identification difficult.161

Sex trafficking: Forced prostitution or sex trafficking is a consequence of the interconnectivity of globalization. We cannot allow the process of globalization to negatively impact the human rights of women. Sex trafficking is both the cause and consequence of numerous human rights violations; it is essentially modern day slavery. In the United States, its survival is dependent upon the commercial sex industry, Like it or not, the conversation on sex trafficking leads back to the debate over legalizing the world's allegedly oldest profession. The relationship between legal and 161 â&#x20AC;&#x153;http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/07/HumanTrafficking/IdentVict/ib.htmâ&#x20AC;?,(12/05/2010).

156

condoned prostitution and sex trafficking is complex. In 2002, the United States officially adopted a foreign policy position opposed to prostitution and other related activities on the basis that prostitution directly contributes to human trafficking. In contrast, Sweden has decriminalized prostitution while criminalizing the purchase of sex and pimping. In essence everything is illegal about prostitution in Sweden except for the prostitutes themselves. Advocates of this model say that Sweden has become a less attractive destination country for traffickers and that trafficking victims and prostitutes can access social services with greater ease. Sweden's method of decriminalizing prostitution while criminalizing the purchase of sex and pimping has lead to a decrease in the number of human trafficking cases. The criminalization of the purchase of sexual services was made into law in 1999. In the decade since the law was enacted, reports indicate that Sweden appears to be the only country in the European Union where sex trafficking and prostitution have not increased. By criminalizing the purchase of sex, and decriminalizing prostitution authorities show that the law is on the side of the victim who is exploited in the process. In Sweden, prostitution is considered to be a form of violence against women. Under the Swedish law, jail terms are permitted. Although, to date most purchasers have been punished with fines. Domestic minor sex trafficking is equal to basic economics: demand fuels supply. Until we lessen the staggering demand, the number of commercially sexually exploited girls will continue to rise. We are, however, beginning to take steps in the right direction.162

Child trafficking: Children are sold by family members "out of desperation in developing countries" such as Cambodia or sub-Saharan African nations, and sometimes it occurs from within the United States. More common in the United States are traffickers who exploit abused runaways or socalled "throwaways” children abandoned by their parents and living on the streets, the trafficker plays the role of a father who is offering care to the child, who is vulnerable. The child, typically homeless and in need of food and shelter, can be manipulated into "survival sex. In other 162 “cnn”,”http://articles.cnn.com/2009-11-18/justice/domestic.child.trafficking_1_human-trafficking-abuseprostitution?_s=PM:CRIME”,(11/25/2010).

157

instances, the trafficker or pimp will get the child hooked on drugs and use their addiction as leverage. The International Labor Organization estimates worldwide that there are 246 million exploited children aged between 5 and 17 involved in debt bondage, forced recruitment for armed conflict, prostitution, pornography, the illegal drug trade, the illegal arms trade and other illicit activities around the world.163

Conditions of the trafficked persons: on Work and Living Conditions: The Individual(s) in Question 

Is not free to leave or come and go as he/she wishes



Is under 18 years of age and is providing commercial sex acts



Is in the commercial sex industry and has a pimp/manager



Is unpaid, paid very little, or paid only through tips



Works excessively long and/or unusual hours



Is not allowed breaks or suffers under unusual restrictions at work



Owes a large debt and is unable to pay it off



Was recruited through false promises concerning the nature and conditions of his/her work



Is living or working in a location with high security measures (e.g. opaque or boarded-up windows, bars on windows, barbed wire, security cameras, etc.)

Poor Mental Health or Abnormal Behavior 

Exhibits unusually fearful, anxious, depressed, submissive, tense, or nervous/paranoid behavior

163 “http://www.acf.hhs.gov/trafficking/about/fact_labor.pdf”,(11/25/2010).

158



Reacts with unusually fearful or anxious behavior at any reference to “law enforcement”



Avoids eye contact



Flat affect

Poor Physical Health 

Presents with unexplained injuries or signs of prolonged/untreated illness or disease



Appears malnourished



Shows signs of physical and/or sexual abuse, physical restraint, confinement, or torture

Lack of Control 

Has few or no personal possessions



Is not in control of his/her own money, no financial records, or bank account



Is not in control of his/her own identification documents (ID or passport)



Is not allowed or able to speak for him/herself (e.g., a third party may insist on being present and/or interpreting)

Facing Human trafficking The United Nations Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention (ODCCP) warns millions of potential victims about the dangers of trafficking. "An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure" According to Family Health International, 1999, a number of programs in Asia have already begun to address the causes of trafficking in women. One of Thailand's responses was to focus on the source of demand for trafficked services, such as the clients of underage sex workers. Through the impetus and lobbying of the National Commission on Women's Affairs (NCWA),

159

Thailand is the first country in the region to pass laws that impose greater penalties on customers than on sellers for involvement in commercial sex with underage partners. Application of the law has been light, but it is the basis for future enforcement. The NCWA is also trying to change male sexual norms through a national poster campaign with messages showing a child saying "my father does not visit prostitutes." In Chiang Rai Thailand, a Thai NGO called Development and Education Program for Daughters & Communities (DEPDC) aims to prevent women and children from being forced into the illegal sex trade or child labor due to outside pressures, lack of education, and limited employment alternatives. The NGO utilizes a mix of strategies to convince parents about the dangers of the illegal sex trade. Information about HIV and AIDS, brothel conditions, legal penalties, and potential dangers is used to support their arguments. In many successful cases the decision of the child to continue her education overrides the parent's desire for money. In Cambodia, the Human Rights Commission has taken the lead to raise awareness on the subject of trafficking at the community level. The Commission has conducted extensive and valuable research throughout the country, organized a national workshop, and proactively contributed to interpretations and implementation of the trafficking law. The Government also provides shelters and schooling for orphans and street children to keep them away from traffickers.164

Second Topic: Guantanamo Bay

Back ground on Guantanamo Bay Guantánamo Bay Detention Camp, also known as Gitmo or GTMO, is a group of high security prisons or detainee centers, run by the US Military and located in Cuba at the Guantanamo Bay Naval Base. The base was first used in the early 70s to hold refugees of Haiti and Cuba who were discovered trying to enter the US via the waters around Florida. In 1993, the US Supreme Court declared that the base couldn’t legally hold Haitian refugees in this manner, and for a time, any holding facilities were abandoned. After 9/11 and the terrorist attacks on America, the government reestablished Guantánamo Bay Detention Camp as a holding facility for people deemed “enemy combatants.” This could include 164 “Human Trafficking”,”http://www.humantrafficking.org/combat_trafficking/prevention”,(11/25/2010).

160

US citizens or residents, and was primarily meant to hold anyone suspected of terrorism, and the various prison camps, of which there are several, have also held people from Afghanistan and other countries who are supposed to have links to al-Qaeda, the Taliban and other Islamic terrorist organizations. Since the establishment of Guantánamo Bay Detention Camp for this purpose, the US and the camp has come under fire from some US citizens, from a number of human rights organizations, and from other countries. Most detainees are held without the right to legal counsel, and since they are considered enemy combatants rather than prisoners of war, rules on the safe and humane treatment of prisoners do not have to conform to the Geneva Code. Detainees are investigated through a number of practices, which some may define as torture. This includes the practice of water-boarding, other aggressive interrogation techniques, and some denial of basic rights accorded to most US prisoners, such as allowing people to continue to live in accordance with their religious beliefs. There have been a number of media reports of abuse of prisoners at Guantánamo, and this abuse includes chaining prisoners to beds for longer than 24 hour periods, not allowing prisoners who have been cleared of suspicion of being enemy combatants to leave, and sexual abuse of prisoners. In 2008, the Supreme Court ruled that detainees should be allowed to pursue their cases in federal courts and be heard on the subject of their detention. This access has long been denied to detainees, who were only able to plead their cases in the past before military tribunals.165 History of Guantanamo Bay: 1903: Cuban-American Treaty Grants U.S. Lease of Guantanamo Bay In 1903, the United States was formally given permission by the Cuban government to establish a military base on the two coasts of Guantanamo Bay in northwest Cuba, 500 miles off the coast of Florida. 1934: Treaty Renewed, Terms Stipulate Both Parties Must Agree to Close Base In 1934, Cuba agreed to renew the United States' lease on Guantanamo Bay, establishing an indefinite lease that could not be dissolved unless both parties agreed to do so. At the time, Cuba also agreed to provide supplies to the base.

165 “wisegeek “,”http://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-guantnamo-bay-detention-camp.htm”,(12/06/2010).

161

1964: Cuban Government Cuts Off Supplies from Guantanamo In 1964, the new Castro government declared that the Guantanamo treaty had been coerced, and no longer recognized the terms of the treaty as valid. Military officials at Guantanamo were forced to make the base self-sufficient, with its own power grid and water supply. 1991-1993: Camp Bulkeley Used to Detain HIV-Positive Haitian Refugees Human rights activists were outraged when 310 HIV-positive Haitian immigrants were segregated from other refugees following the 1991 Haitian coup and imprisoned in Camp Bulkeley, a crowded and unsanitary detention camp. They were finally released in 1993 after an international campaign. 1996: Operation Marathon Focuses on Undocumented Chinese Migrants Guantanamo's detention facilities have historically been used to house refugees and other undocumented immigrants captured on the high seas. Under 1996's Operation Marathon antismuggling initiative, Guantanamo detention facilities were used to house an estimated 120 Chinese migrants who had attempted to illegally migrate to the United States by sea. 1997: Operation Present Haven Focuses on Undocumented Guyanese Migrants Guantanamo was also used to house Guyanese migrants who had attempted to reach the United States by sea. 2002: Guantanamo Bay Naval Base Used to House Post-9/11 Detainees Following the attacks of September 11, 2001, Guantanamo Bay detention facilities were used to house alleged enemy combatants from Afghanistan and Iraq. Most were classified as "terrorist associates," not actual terrorists or insurgents. 2004: Allegations of Torture In 2004, Guantanamo detainees began approaching human rights groups complaining that moderate torture techniques had been used against them. This was later corroborated by military documents indicating that the use of some techniques commonly considered torture--such as forced standing, sleep deprivation, loud noises, and waterboarding--may have been used at Guantanamo facilities.166 Conspiracy as a War Crime:

166 “about “,”http://civilliberty.about.com/od/waronterror/tp/History-Guantanamo-Bay.htm”,(12/06/2010).

162

The Bush administration has not accused the defendant himself of committing any terrorist acts, or with any documented war crimes. Instead, it has charged him with conspiracy, which has not traditionally been accepted as a proper charge for military tribunals.

2009: Obama Announces Plans to Shut Down Detention Facility Within a Year On January 21, 2009, newly-inaugurated President Barack Obama issued his first executive order--calling for the closure of detention facilities within a year, and an immediate case-by-case review of all detentions.167 Cuba on Guantanamo: During a speech in Chile on December 3 1971, Castro said, "that base is there just to humiliate Cuba; just like a knife stuck in the heart of Cuba's dignity and sovereignty… But from a military standpoint, the base is completely useless." On January 11 1985, in a speech during a visit to Nicaragua, Castro addressed the potential use of military violence to recover this territory. "What interest can we have in waging a war with our neighbors?" he said. "In our country we have a military base against the will of our people. It has been there throughout the twenty-six years of the revolution, and it is being occupied by force. We have the moral and legal right to demand its return. We have made the claim in the moral and legal way. We do not intend to recover it with the use of arms. It is part of our territory being occupied by a U.S. military base. Never has anyone, a revolutionary cadre, a revolutionary leader, or a fellow citizen, had the idea of recovering the piece of our territory by the use of force. If some day it will be ours, it will not be by the use of force, but the advance of the consciousness of justice in the world." On June 14 2002, at the United Nations General Assembly, Cuba demanded that Guantánamo territory be returned to the island. The issue of returning Guantánamo to Cuba is complicated by the agreement signed by Batista in 1934. The agreement states: "Until the two Contracting Parties agree to the modification or abrogation of the stipulations of the agreement in regard to the lease to the United States of 167“ about”,” http://civilliberty.about.com/od/waronterror/tp/History-Guantanamo-Bay.htm”,(12/06/2010).

163

America of lands in Cuba for coaling and naval stations… the stipulations of that Agreement with regard to the naval station of Guantánamo shall continue in effect." To the U.S. this means an "open-ended duration" that can only be terminated by mutual agreement. To Cuba it means that Guantánamo Bay is "occupied territory."168

Circumstances and conditions in Guantanamo Bay: Solitary Confinement The majority of men held in Guantanamo Bay are held in maximum security facilities, Camp 5 and Camp 6 as well as Camp Echo. The small cells are made from steel and concrete. Food is delivered through a metal slot in the door. If the men yell loud enough, they can speak with each other, but to do so risks punishment. Weeks can go by without the men seeing sunlight. The everyday reality for these men is sensory deprivation, environmental manipulation and sleep deprivation, not to mention the daily psychological and physical torment. Toothbrushes, blankets, soap and deodorant are considered privileges, so can be taken away as a form of punishment. ‘Recreation’ for ‘compliant detainees’ consists of two to four hours outside the cell, sometimes in the middle of the night so the men do not see sunlight or have any contact with any living thing. In Camp 6, ‘recreation’ time is spent in a pen surrounded by two storey high concrete walls with wire across the top. 168“ History of Cuba”,”http://www.historyofcuba.com/history/funfacts/guantan.htm”,(12/09/2010).

164

The psychological effects of solitary confinement can include hallucinations, extreme anxiety, hostility, confusion and concentration problems. The physical effects include muscular atrophy, weight loss and impaired eyesight.

Sensory Deprivation Temperature in the cells is kept at an uncomfortably cold level. This has caused ongoing health problems for many of the men. Lights are kept on 24hours a day in Camp 5. Sleep Deprivation Due to the lights being kept on at all hours, the men find it impossible to sleep. As aforementioned, some men are woken at 2am for ‘recreation’ time. Bed sheets are considered ‘comfort items’ and are often removed as a disciplinary technique. There is constant noise in the camps which makes sleep impossible. Immediate Reaction Force (IRF) and Physical Attacks Detainees live in a constant state of fear due to the risk of physical violence. In January 2009, there have been two documented IRF incidents outlined in the CCR report. The first involved Yasin Ismael being beaten and assaulted whilst in ‘recreation’. Mr. Ismael describes how his nose and mouth was blocked whilst they hit him. After the beating took place and they were returning him to his cell, one of the guards urinated on him. In mid-January, IRF teams were reportedly entering cells more than fifteen times a day. In a letter to lawyers, a detainee describes one man being deliberately cut on his hands with scissors. When guards were asked about this, they said that they were attempting to cut off plastic shackles. Many detainees are afraid to leave their cells, including to see lawyers, due to the risk of physical attack. Abuse of Psychologically ill Detainees Solitary confinement has caused many psychological problems in the men detained in Guantanamo. A combination of the extreme solitary, sensory deprivation and over stimulation due to the lighting and noise has caused severe depression and in some cases led to instances of self harm and suicide attempts. Detainees who have been identified as suffering from psychological distress are often isolated and mistreated which has only served to exacerbate symptoms. Suicide attempts have been labelled as “manipulative self-injurious behaviour”. It has also been documented that members of the medical staff have assisted or been present during beatings by guards. Some have laughed at the men whilst they were being beaten. The men have

165

been denied access to test results and information about treatment they are receiving, including medication. In January of this year, Mr Khan Tumani, who was detained at the age of 17, smeared excrement on the walls on his cell after years of psychological and physical abuse. When he did not clean up the excrement, the IRF team was sent in to beat him severely. It is reported that so much pepper spray was used on Mr. Tumani that at least one of the guards vomited. Force Feeding Many of the men are currently engaged in hunger strikes in protest of the treatment they are enduring or in response to beatings of others. ‘Restraint chairs’ which are marketed as a ‘padded cell on wheels’ were introduced to Guantanamo in December 2005. A tube which is about the thickness of a finger is inserted into the nose and pushed into their stomachs. The formula is then pumped into the tube which is sometimes as much as 1.5 litres. Such large amounts can cause nausea, vomiting, bloating, diarrhea and shortness of breath. The men are kept strapped to the chair for an hour after to make sure they do not purge the formula. This is a very painful experience and the men are not given any sedatives or pain killers during the procedure. The force feeding takes place twice a day, reportedly with the same tubes covered in the bile and blood of other men. It has also been reported that the detainees are kept in these chairs for days at a time and given laxatives so that they are more inclined to start eating again1. If they still refuse, they are kept in the chair without being cleaned. This is a gross violation of human rights according to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the Geneva Conventions. Religious Abuse Camp 5 and 6 have new body search procedures which require the men to be subjected to a full body scan which reveals the naked image of the men to the guards. To avoid the humiliating and degrading experience, many of the men are refusing to leave their cells. The men are denied the right to pray communally as prescribed by Islam. There has also not been a Muslim chaplain available to any detainee since 2003. Forced Separation of Family Members and a Denial of Adequate Family Communication Separation of family members within Guantanamo has only served to heighten the psychological suffering of the men. Limited telephone access has only been granted recently to detainees. Mr. Tumani, who was mentioned previously was captured with his father. They have been held separately and denied any communication with each other for the majority of the seven years they have been imprisoned. More generally the detainees have extraordinarily limited access to family members through International Committee of the Red Cross(ICRC) letters which take

166

months to reach family members. For the first time in six years, detainees are now allowed one phone call per year which is totally inadequate under human rights standards.169 Inside the detention: The CIA has worked at Guantanamo Bay since the early days of the prison camps, which opened in January 2002 when the first men captured in the Afghan war were transferred to a collection of chain-link cages called Camp X-Ray. The CIA has kept an office at the Navy base and takes part in interrogation sessions of Defense Department detainees alongside FBI agents, military intelligence officers and others in what are called Tiger Teams. Many of the interrogations have been conducted inside trailers set up within the perimeter of Camp Delta, a more permanent compound of steel cages that took the place of Camp X-Ray by the end of 2003. The facility used by the CIA is in Camp Echo, which also houses high-value military detainees. The camp consists of more than a dozen single-story concrete-block huts built away from the main prison complex. Each hut is divided in half. Inside is a steel cage, a restroom, and a table for interviews and interrogations, according to sources familiar with the facility. 170 Human rights violations: Guantanamo Bay represents the very worst of abuses of international humanitarian and human rights law. Detainees are imprisoned without adequate access to legal counsel or independent tribunals violating the right to fair trial. Prisoners have been detained for undefined periods, without charges, and have been subjected to prolonged solitary confinement violating the right to be free of arbitrary detention. Detainees lack independent medical evaluation violating the right to health Detainees have been subjected to physical and psychological interrogation techniques that are in violation of the right to be free of torture. Prisoners have been denied independent investigation into allegations of torture and ill treatment. Rendition of prisoners to countries with a substantial risk of torture violates the principle of non-refoulment. There have been violations 169 “amnesty“, “http://www.amnesty.org.au/hrs/comments/20595/”,(12/02/2010).

170 “washingtonpost“,”http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A5918-2004Dec16_2.html”,(12/02/2010).

167

of the right to freedom of religion or belief. Force feeding of detainees on hunger strikes violates the right to health. As an expert consultant to the legal teams representing Guantanamo detainees, Dr. Grodin will call for independent investigation, documentation, accountability and possible prosecution of violations of prisoner's human rights.171

On the other hand supporters of the bay claim that :In reality, all Guantanamo detainees are provided with Islamic religious items; certified halal (adhering to Islamic law) meals; regular opportunities to attend Islamic religious services; a 6,000-book library that is well-stocked with Islamic literature as well as books and DVDs on a wide range of subjects; an outdoor basketball court; a special classroom where various languages are taught

Habeas Corpus Definition of Habeas Corpus: Habeas Corpus is an ancient common law prerogative writ - a legal procedure to which you have an undeniable right. It is an extraordinary remedy at law. Upon proper application, or even on naked knowledge alone, a court is empowered, and is duty bound, to issue the Extraordinary Writ of Habeas Corpus commanding one who is restraining liberty to forthwith produce before the court the person who is in custody and to show cause why the liberty of that person is being restrained. Absent a sufficient showing for a proper restraint of liberty, the court is duty bound to order the restraint eliminated and the person discharged. Habeas Corpus is 171 “apha”, “http://apha.confex.com/apha/134am/techprogram/paper_143411.htm”,(11/30/2010).

168

fundamental to American and all other English common law derivative systems of jurisprudence. It is the ultimate lawful and peaceable remedy for adjudicating the providence of liberty’s restraint.

-The History of Habeas Corpus:

ENGLISH HISTORY OF HABEAS CORPUS: The history of Habeas Corpus is ancient. It appears to be predominately of Anglo-Saxon common law origin. Clearly, it precedes Magna Carta in 1215. Although the precise origin of Habeas Corpus is uncertain in light of it’s antiquity, its principle effect was achieved in the middle ages by various writs, the sum collection of which gave a similar effect as the modern writ. Although practice surrounding the writ has evolved over time, Habeas Corpus has since the earliest times been employed to compel the appearance of a person who is in custody to be brought before a court. And while Habeas Corpus originally was the prerogative writ of the King and his courts, the passage of hundreds of years time has permitted it to evolve into a prerogative writ initiated by the person restrained, or someone acting in his interest rather than by the King or his courts. Magna Carta obliquely makes reference to Habeas Corpus through express reference to “the law of the land”. From Magna Carta the exact quote is: “...no free man shall be taken or imprisoned or exiled or in any way destroyed except by the lawful judgment of their peers or by the law of the land.” The practice and right of Habeas Corpus was settled practice and law at the time of Magna Carta and was thus a fundamental part of the unwritten common “law of the land” as was expressly recognized by Magna Carta. THE MODERN WRIT OF HABEAS CORPUS: Today the Writ of Habeas Corpus is used in many different ways. It applies to post conviction relief in criminal matters even where the judgment of judge and jury is final. It applies to those who are in police custody but who are not charged with a crime. It applies to those who are awaiting trial but who have not been able to make an excessive bail. It applies to death row prisoners who challenge their death sentence. It applies to prisoners who remain in custody after the expiration of their lawful sentence. Additionally, Habeas Corpus applies to both adults and children who are restrained of their liberty in some meaningful manner but who are not in the actual custody of police or other public authority. For example, Writs of Habeas Corpus have been issued in civil cases on application of a parent where a child’s custody is being sought against the wishes of the other parent who allegedly “restrains” the child. It applies equally to those who have been held because of their

169

mental condition. And the writ applies equally for any other fact or circumstance, civil or criminal, in which the liberty of someone is restrained in any meaningful manner.172 -Habeas Corpus and USA Constitution: The USA Constitution, in section 9 of Article I, states the following “The Privilege of the Write of Habeas Corpus shall not be suspended, unless when in Cases of Rebellion or Invasion the public Safety may require it.” What happened that on April 27, 1861, President Lincoln issued an order to Commanding General Winfield Scott authorizing him to suspend the writ of habeas corpus (by which persons deprived of liberty can challenge the legality of their detention in a court). On May 25, military troops arrested John Merryman for participating in the destruction of railroad bridges following an antiwar riot in Baltimore. But we have to ask a very important question: Is the president have the right to suspend the habeas corpus? Merryman's lawyer filed a writ of habeas corpus before the Chief Justice and he said that Merryman`s detention was illegal on 2 grounds : 1-The President, under the Constitution and laws of the United States, cannot suspend the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus, nor authorize any military officer to do so. 2-A military officer has no right to arrest and detain a person, not subject to the rules and articles of war, for an offence against the laws of the United States, except in and of the judicial authority and subject to its control-and if the party is arrested by the military, it is the duty of the officer to deliver him over immediately to the civil authority, to be dealt with according to law. Then the chief justice indicate his intention to write his opinion and to send it to the president of united states and he said the following: "I understand that the President not only claims the right to suspend the writ of habeas corpus himself, at his discretion, but to delegate that discretionary power to a military officer, and to leave it to him to determine whether he will or will not obey judicial process that may be served upon him.... I certainly listened to [the argument] with some surprise, for I had supposed it to be one of those points of constitutional law upon which there was no difference of opinion, and that it was admitted on all hands, that the privilege of the writ could not be suspended, except by act of congress.... Believing, as I do, that the president 172 “habeascorpus “,” http://www.habeascorpus.net/hcwrit.html”,(12/02/2010).

170

has exercised a power which he does not possess under the constitution, a proper respect for the high office he fills, requires me to state plainly and fully the grounds of my opinion.... The clause of the constitution, which authorizes the suspension of the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus, is in the 9th section of the first article. This article is devoted to the legislative department of the United States, and has not the slightest reference to the executive department.... It is the second article of the constitution that provides for the organization of the executive department, enumerates the powers conferred on it, and prescribes its duties. And if the high power over the liberty of the citizen now claimed, was intended to be conferred on the president, it would undoubtedly be found in plain words in this article; but here is not a word in it that can furnish the slightest ground to justify the exercise of the power. . . . The only power, therefore, which the president possesses, where the "life, liberty or property" of a private citizen is concerned, is the power and duty prescribed in the third section of the second article, which requires "that he shall take care that the laws shall be faithfully executed." He is not authorized to execute them himself, or through agents or officers, civil or military, appointed by himself, but he is to take care that they be faithfully carried into execution, as they are expounded and adjudged by the co-ordinate branch of the government to which that duty is assigned by the constitution. It is thus made his duty to come in aid of the judicial authority, if it shall be resisted by a force too strong to be overcome without the assistance of the executive arm; but in exercising this power he acts in subordination to judicial authority, assisting it to execute its process and enforce its judgments. With such provisions in the constitution, expressed in language too clear to be misunderstood by anyone, I can see no ground whatever for supposing that the president, in any emergency, or in any state of things, can authorize the suspension of the privileges of the writ of habeas corpus, except in aid of the judicial power. He certainly does not faithfully execute the laws, if he takes upon himself legislative power, by suspending the writ of habeas corpus, and the judicial power also, by arresting and imprisoning a person without due process of law. Nor can any argument be drawn from the nature of sovereignty, or the necessity of government, for self-defense in times of tumult and danger. The government of the United States is one of delegated and limited power; it derives its existence and authority altogether from the constitution, and neither of its branches, executive, legislative or judicial, can exercise any of the powers of government beyond those specified and granted; for the tenth article of the amendments to the constitution, in express terms, provides that "the powers not delegated to the United States by the constitution, not prohibited by it to the states, are reserved to the states, respectively, or to the people." 173 173 “sandiego”,”http://home.sandiego.edu/~miker/habeascorpus.pdf”,(12/02/2010).

171

Ultimately, the Administration indicted Merryman for treason by a civil grand jury. He was released on bail and never tried. -Habeas Corpus and Military Commission Act: Military Commission Act was issued in 2006 in the era of the president George W .Bush after The 9/11 attacks that totally was against the human rights and restoring the writ of the habeas corpus as it states the following: 1-The president has absolute power to decide who is an “enemy. 2-“Enemies” can be imprisoned indefinitely without charge or legal justification. 3- Detainees can be denied court review of their imprisonment. 4- The president can define what is — and isn’t — torture and abuse, regardless of the Geneva Conventions or any other human rights law. 5- Convictions may be based on coerced evidence — even evidence gathered when detainees may have been kidnapped abroad and tortured in overseas prisons. 6- Government officials who authorized or ordered illegal acts of torture and abuse are granted retroactive immunity.

The Military Commission Act was sparked by US. Supreme Court of Justice `s ruling in Hamdan vs. Rumsfeld. The court said that the original military commission system established by President Bush to try detainees at Guantanamo Bay was unfair and illegal.

-Case Study ( Hamdan vs. Rumsfeld) : Salim Ahmed Hamdan was captured in Afghanistan in late 2001, during a time of hostilities in that country that followed the terrorist attacks in the United States on September 11, 2001 mounted by alQaeda, a terrorist group harbored in Afghanistan. He was detained by American military forces and transferred sometime in 2002 to the detention facility set up by the

172

Defense Department at Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, Cuba. On July 3, 2003, acting pursuant to the Military Order he had issued on November 13, 2001, and finding “that there is reason to believe that Hamdan was a member of al Qaida or was otherwise involved in terrorism directed against the United States,” the President designated Hamdan for trial by military commission. In December 2003, Hamdan was placed in a part of the Guantanamo Bay where he was held in isolation. On December 18, 2003, military counsel was appointed for him. On February 12, 2004,Hamdan’s counsel filed a demand for charges and speedy trial under Article 10 of the Uniform Code of Military Justice. On February 23, 2004, the legal advisor to the Appointing Authority ruled that the UCMJ did not apply to Hamdan’s detention. On April 6, 2004, in the United States District Court for the Western District of Washington, Hamdan’s counsel filed the petition for mandamus or habeas corpus that is now before this court. On July 9, 2004, Hamdan was formally charged with conspiracy to commit the following offenses: “attacking civilians; attacking civilian objects; murder , destruction of property and terrorism.” So Hamdan made petitions for a writ of habeas corpus , challenging the lawfulness of the Secretary of Defense’s plan to try him for alleged war crimes before a military commission convened under special orders issued by the President of the United States, rather than before a court-martial convened under the Uniform Code of Military Justice. The government moves to dismiss. Because Hamdan has not been determined by a competent tribunal to be an offender triable under the law of war, and because in any event the procedures established for the Military Commission by the President’s order are “contrary to or inconsistent” with those applicable to courts-martial, Hamdan’s petition will be granted in part. The government’s motion will be denied.174 Without habeas protections and due process, we are almost certainly holding innocent people behind bars. In fact, the Bush administration has already acknowledged that at least 140 of the prisoners held at Guantanamo are not terrorists — they are individuals who were simply in the wrong place at the wrong time. Several bills have been introduced in Congress that would restore habeas corpus rights to detainees and reaffirm that no president can make up his or her own rules regarding torture and abuse. And we have Restoring the Constitution Act of 2007 which states the following: 1- Ends indefinite detention by restoring habeas corpus and due process. 2- Makes clear that the Constitution is the law of the land. The RCA stops any president from arbitrarily deciding who is an enemy combatant, ensures that no one will be prosecuted based on coerced evidence, and ensures that no president can make up his or her own rules regarding torture and abuse. 3- Protects against unlawful detention through court review. 174 “guardian “,”http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-files/Guardian/documents/2006/06/29/05-184.pdf”, (12/02/2010).

173

So Guantanamo detainees will have the right to issue habeas corpus in order to have a judgment but an important question arises, Whether they will be judged before civil courts or military courts?

The release of the prisoners A recent newspaper reports that the Pentagon believes that one in seven (fourteen per cent) of detainees have engaged in questionable activities or terrorism since their release. Actual details are sketchy, but if true, it would indicate that Guantanamo Bay has proven to be one of the most effective experiments in criminal rehabilitation conducted by the US Government. According to the US Department of Justice website, the average three year re-arrest rate for all released prisoners is in excess of sixty per cent, this includes prisoners incarcerated for violent crime and drug related activities. It should be noted that such prisoners have on average experienced better treatment and greater transparency and due process, and more assistance and supervision during their re-entry into civilian life than has been provided prisoners at the Guantanamo Bay facility. In the normal criminal justice system, re-arrest is not proof of guilt. Accordingly, it might be instructive for purposes of analysis to compare the percentage of criminals both re-arrested and convicted within three years of their release with the percentage of alleged Guantanamo Bay recidivists. Overall, three year reconviction rates were almost forty-seven per cent for all criminals. For violent criminals they were approximately forty-one per cent. Re-conviction rates for drug related released criminals have also been in excess of forty per cent. On average in excess of fifty per cent of all released criminals were back in jail either because they were convicted of another crime or due to a parole violation.

174

It seems likely that many of the prisoners released would be entitled to feel a certain amount of anger and resentment at the treatment they received, and the difficulties they were forced to overcome in order to be released. This might lead a reasonable person to expect that they would be more and not less prone to engage in questionable activities. Nor is it likely that actual motivated terrorists would be less prone to engage in questionable activities when released than ordinary prisoners (approximately fifty per cent). Accordingly, it seems reasonable to conclude that the low alleged recidivism rate for prisoners released from Guantanamo Bay is not due to a breakthrough in rehabilitation techniques that has been developed and implemented there. Rather it seems likely that a reasonable person would conclude that the remarkably low recidivists rate for prisoners released from Guantanamo Bay indicates that at a minimum, approximately seventy-five per cent of the prisoners released, were innocent of any terrorist related activities. Should prisoners found suitable for release from Guantanamo Bay be entitled to compensation?175 Guantanamo Bay Be or Not to Be:On January 22, 2009, President Barack Obama issued an executive order calling for the Guantanamo Bay detention center to be closed permanently within one year. At the time of this directive, there were 245 detainees still in custody. With….. "These 'detainees' are not innocent foot soldiers ... They are Islamic fundamentalists from across the Middle East, rabid jihadists who have dedicated their lives to the destruction of America and Western civilization. Among the residents are al-Qaeda organizers, bomb makers, financial specialists, recruiters of suicide attackers, and just plain killers. Many of these men met frequently with Osama bin Laden. The terrorist Maad Al Qahtani, a Saudi who is a selfconfessed collaborator with the September 11 hijackers, is one of many infamous captives.... Against:……. "Guantanamo has become associated in the eyes of the world with a discredited administration policy of abuse, secrecy, and contempt for the rule of law. Rather than keeping us more secure, keeping Guantanamo open is harming our national interests."… Hillary Clinton

175 “rusi”, “http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4A1588EB894C1/”,(12/02/2010).

175

President Barack Obama signs an executive order closing the prison at Guantanamo Bay, on Jan. 22,2009,

“Novelty is the great parent of pleasure”Robert South Welcome to the first ever MAC’11 Select Committee on Intelligence.

176

Secretariats Chairlady: Hadeer Samy Vice Chair: Roua Raif Ranking Member: Salah Barakat Party Consultant: Nadine Medhat

Table of Contents -Introduction: the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence 1. First Topic: The role of the intelligence community in the War on Terror 1.1. The role of the intelligence community in eliminating terrorist safe havens 1.1.1. Al Qaeda history 1.1.2. FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas) 1.1.2.1. Congressional Action 1.1.2.2. Arms Transfer

177

1.1.2.3. Possible adjustments to US assistance programs 1.1.3. The Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) 1.1.3.1. The Cooperation of the CIA & the ISI 1.1.4. Current relations between IC & ISI against Al Qaeda

1.2. 1.2.1 1.2.1.1 1.2.2 1.2.2.1 1.2.2.2 1.2.2.3 1.2.3 1.2.3.1 1.2.3.2 1.2.3.3 1.2.3.4 1.2.3.5 1.2.4 1.2.5

The CIA interrogation programs The role of the CIA CIA and allegations of prisoner abuse CIA interrogations techniques Defining interrogations Congressional report on CIA interrogation techniques Interrogation techniques used by the CIA and the DOD Failed terrorist attacks and detained terrorists The plot to destroy US airliners with liquid explosives, August 2006 Christmas Attack 2009 Richard Reid, December 2001 James Elshafay and Shahawar Matin Siraj, August 2004 Times Square attack ,New York City, May 2nd,2010 Successful Terrorist attacks Controversies on the Interrogation techniques

1.3.

The PATRIOT Act 1.3.1. The USA-PATRIOT Act: Introduction 1.3.2. History of the legislation 1.3.3. Major provisions of the 2001 USA PATRIOT Act. 1.3.4. A Brief introduction on the Foreing Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) 1.3.5. Controversial Provisions of the PATRIOT Act 1.3.5.1. Sneak and Peak provisions 1.3.5.2. National Security Letters (NSLs) 1.3.5.3. Roving Wiretaps

2. Second Topic: Intelligence Reform 2.1. The Intelligence Community after the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act (IRTPA) of 2004 2.2. The current Intelligence Community structure 2.2.1. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) 2.2.2. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) 2.2.3. The Defense Intelligence Agency 2.3. The debate on the efficiency of the IC after the establishment of the DNI & ODNI 2.4. Positive reviews 2.5. Negative reviews 2.6. Issues for the 111th Congress

178

United States Senate Select Committee on Intelligence

The United States Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI) was established during the 94th Congress in 1975, in accordance with Senate Resolution 400 (S.Res.400 [94th]). The resolution states that the Committee shall â&#x20AC;&#x153;make every effort to assure that the appropriate departments and agencies provide informed and timely intelligence necessary for the executive and legislative branches to make sound decisions on national securityâ&#x20AC;?. The Senate Intelligence Committee (SSCI) is charged with overseeing and making continuing studies of the intelligence activities and programs of the United States Government, and submitting to the Senate appropriate proposals for legislation and report to the Senate concerning such intelligence activities and programs. It is further the purpose of the committee to provide vigilant legislative oversight over US intelligence activities to assure that they are Constitutional176

176 Jurisdicton. n.d., http://intelligence.senate.gov/jurisdiction.html,accessed February 27, 2011.

179