English bl 23 01 2018

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© 2006-2017 Kasturi & Sons Ltd. -@SridharMuskula -muskulasridhar@gmail.com TUESDAY • JANUARY 23, 2018 CHENNAI 8 • Pages 18 • Volume 25 • Number 19

EMERGING ENTREPRENEURS With major global ambitions, Vineet Rai wants to make Aavishkaar the go­to impact fund p2

BUDGET EXPECTATIONS The Finance Minister may focus on GST discounts and Direct Bene t Transfers to boost e­payments p6

DIGITAL DRIVE Customers have succeeded by adopting digital early, says Bhanumurthy BM, President and Chief Operating Officer, Wipro p7 Regd. TN/ARD/14/2012-2014, RNI No. 55320/94

Ahmedabad Bengaluru Chennai Coimbatore Hubballi Hyderabad Kochi Kolkata Madurai Malappuram Mangaluru Mumbai Noida Thiruvananthapuram Tiruchirapalli Tirupati Vijayawada Visakhapatnam

QUICKLY ECONOMY

ASEAN pushing early RCEP pact New Delhi, January 22

Exerting pressure on New Delhi to consent early to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership — a mega regional trade pact being negotiated by sixteen nations, the 10­ Enggartiasto Lukita member ASEAN grouping expressed hope that India would not let the bloc down in its efforts to conclude the agreement this year. “I believe India will stand with ASEAN to conclude the RCEP this year….and will not disappoint,” said Enggartiasto Lukita, Indonesian Trade Minister, at the ASEAN­India business and p4 investment meet in New Delhi.

BANKING

Axis Bank Q3 net profit jumps 25% Mumbai, January 22

Axis Bank reported a 25 per cent year­on­ year increase in its third­quarter net pro t as robust upgradation and recovery in loan accounts alleviated provisioning pressure. It reported a net pro t of 726 crore in the third quarter ended December 31, 2017, against 580 crore in the year­ago quarter. Though the operating pro t declined 17 per cent to 3,854 crore, the bottomline was supported by relatively lower loan­loss p10 provisioning of 2,754 crore.

IMF sees India as fastest­growing economy in 2018, 2019... Retains country’s GDP forecast at 7.4% for 2018, scales up world output estimate OUR BUREAU New Delhi, January 22

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) remains bullish on India’s growth potential and has retained its GDP forecast for the country at 6.7 per cent in 2017 and 7.4 per cent in 2018. In its World Economic Outlook Update, it also estimated that the Indian economy would grow by 7.8 per cent in 2019, which make the country the world’s fastest­ growing economy in 2018 and 2019, the top ranking it brie y lost in 2017 to China. “The aggregate growth fore­ cast for the emerging markets and developing economies for 2018 and 2019 is unchanged… Growth is expected to…pick up in India…,” said the report, which was released ahead of the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos. The projection is in line with

Pradhan hints at creating ‘giant vertical’ under HPCL Asked to elaborate how the government projects the The next step after the comple­ ONGC­HPCL deal as a “strategic tion of the ONGC­Hindustan sale” and whether it can be Petroleum Corporation Ltd considered as disinvestment, deal is to see whether the latter Pradhan said, “This should be can evolve into a petrochem­ looked at as an innovative ver­ ical major. This can be achieved tical economic integration. We by vertically integrating the should not get caught up in petrochemical subsidiaries of the jargon of whether it is a ONGC with HPCL, said Dhar­ strategic sale or a disinvest­ mendra Pradhan, Minister for ment or not.” Petroleum & Natural Gas. Pradhan said this should be Speaking to reporters a day seen as a deal where the Gov­ after the formal approval of ernment has e ectively trans­ the ONGC­ ferred its stake HPCL deal to a govern­ Y was an­ Z ment company nounced, for an appre­ Pradhan reit­ ciable price. erated that “Government HPCL will revenues have continue to increased. Just operate as an the nancial independent consideration public sector was not an is­ enterprise sue,” he said, after the adding that “We should not get share sale. “there was an caught up in the jargon of “But after appetite for the whether it is a strategic becoming an oil major in In­ sale or a disinvestment ONGC group dia, looking at or not.” company, I the price volat­ DHARMENDRA PRADHAN can see that ility. When the Minister for Petroleum there is po­ crude price of and Natural Gas tential of cre­ Z oil rises, the Y ating an in­ margins for tegrated re nery group,” marketing company come un­ Pradhan said, hinting of a pos­ der pressure. Looking at In­ sible integration of Mangalore dia’s consumption pattern, Re nery And Petrochemicals government experts believed Ltd (MRPL) with HPCL. that this was needed.” He, however, was quick to point out that any decision on Changing economic models this would rest with the boards Pradhan went on to add that “economic models and gov­ of ONGC and MRPL. “Within the ONGC group, ernance change with time. there are ONGC Mangalore Pet­ When HPCL was acquired by rochemicals Ltd (OMPL), ONGC the government, it was done so Petro Additions Ltd (OPAL), through parliamentary Acts and HPCL has a stake in Bhat­ and rules. This came with inda re nery (in joint venture some responsibilities and es­ partnership with the LN Mittal tablished practices. When we group),” Pradhan noted. “All decided to offload them fur­ these could belong to HPCL if ther, we found that this was the they wish. This will boost HP­ best model.” HPCL’s shares closed down CL’s plans to expand in the pet­ rochemical sector, such as the by 3.55 per cent at 401.75 a ones they have for the Barmer scrip while ONGC’s shares re nery, the West Coast re­ were up 3.28 per cent at nery and for the one in Kakin­ 199.95 a share on the bourses. ada. If we combine all these, an Shares of MRPL were up 3.22 integrated re nery vertical per cent at 130 a scrip on the exchanges. can be developed,” he added.

OUR BUREAU

New Delhi, January 22

CM YK

In contrast, China’s growth is expected to slow down from 6.8 per cent in 2017 to 6.6 per cent in 2018 and further to 6.4 per cent in 2019.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi greets officials on his arrival at Zurich International Airport to participate in the World Economic Forum in Davos on Monday PTI

o cial estimates from the Cent­ ral Statistics O ce, which pegged GDP growth at 6.5 per cent this scal. The Washington DC­based agency had in October 2017 lowered India’s growth forecast re ecting “lingering disruptions associated with the currency ex­

change initiative introduced in November 2016, as well as trans­ ition costs related to the launch of the national goods and ser­ vices tax.” In April, the IMF had pegged India’s GDP growth at 7.2 per cent for 2017 and at 7.7 per cent in 2018. #4 4 6 6 0 1

Global economy The IMF is, however, more bullish about the global eco­ nomy and has scaled up its fore­ cast for world output to 3.9 per cent each in 2018 and 2019, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than its estimate in October. For 2017, it has raised its estim­ ate for global growth by 0.1 per­ centage points to 3.7 per cent. “The revision re ects in­ creased global growth mo­ mentum and the expected im­ pact of the recently­approved US tax policy changes,” it said. The US tax policy changes are expected to stimulate activity, with the short­term impact in the US mostly driven by the in­ vestment response to the corpor­ ate income tax cuts, said the IMF. It has signi cantly raised the growth forecast for the US to 2.3 per cent in 2017, 2.7 per cent in 2018 and 2.5 per cent next year.

...but on inclusive growth, still lags behind Sri Lanka, Pakistan India comes in at 62 on WEF index seen as an ‘alternative’ to GDP OUR BUREAU New Delhi, January 22

Despite an improved perform­ ance, India continues to be ranked below neighbours Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal in the Inclusive Development Index released by the World Economic Forum. India has been ranked 62 out of 74 emerging economies on a metric focussed on the living standards of people and future­ proo ng of economies by the WEF. Pakistan has been ranked 47, Sri Lanka is at 40, and Nepal at 22; Uganda (59) and Mali (60) are also higher on the index than India. This Inclusive Development In­ dex has been developed as a new metric of national economic per­ formance as an alternative to GDP. The WEF study said, “Designed as an alternative to GDP, the In­ clusive Development Index (IDI) re ects more closely the criteria by which people evaluate their countries’ economic progress.” India, the WEF said, re ects an ‘improving trend’. There has

Millet Mission to promote nutrient­rich cereals; 800­crore outlay on the cards Likely to be announced in Budget; will help tackle malnutrition, support ryots VISHWANATH KULKARNI Bengaluru, January 22

In the National Year of Mil­ lets, the Centre proposes to adopt a mission­mode ap­ proach to promote the nutri­ ent­rich cereals, including sorghum, ragi and foxtail millets. O cial sources said a Mil­ let Mission is being proposed with an outlay of 800 crore for the next two years to boost production of these cereals, which are naturally rich with protein and nutri­ ents such as iron, calcium and zinc, and also consume less water and inputs, thus being ecologically sustain­ able.

Finance Minister Arun Jait­ ley is expected to make an an­ nouncement in the forth­ coming Budget on the provision for the Millet Mis­ sion, under the National Food Security Mission. Nutrition security The proposed mission, apart from aiming to boost sup­ plies of these nutri­cereals, is expected to help address the issue of nutrition security. It will be implemented in at least 16 of the 21 States that grow millets. Besides supporting farm­ ers with technical inputs, in­ cluding seeds, the mission will focus on farm­gate pro­

cessing, aggregation, and provide linkages to the value addition industry and mar­ kets. Also, seed hubs are being planned in major millet growing States and a referral lab is being set up at the Hy­ derabad­based Indian Insti­ tute of Millets Research to give a fresh impetus to R&D activities. On the demand side, the proposed mission

will focus on creating con­ sumer awareness. India, which grows over half­a­dozen varieties of mil­ lets, produces around 20 mil­ lion tonnes of these nutri­cer­ eals, which make up about 7 per cent of the country’s over­ all foodgrain output of around 275 mt. Pearl millet (bajra, over 9 mt) and sorghum (jowar, over 6 mt) account for a ma­ jor chunk of the millet out­ put, followed by nger millet (ragi, at over 2 mt). The minor millets such as foxtail, kodo and proso millet account for less than a mil­ lion tonnes. Millets in mid-day meal Speaking on the national roadmap for millets at the In­ ternational Trade Fair on or­

ganics and millets in Bengaluru last week­end, Ag­ riculture Secretary SK Pat­ tanayak said the NITI Aayog has recommended including millets in the public distribu­ tion system. Making a pitch for inclu­ sion of millets into the mid­ day meal schemes in schools, especially in aanganwadis, where they can help tackle malnutrition, Pattanayak also called upon growers to place millets on the super­ market shelves of the US. In fact, Akshaya Patra, the mid­day meal implementing agency in Karnataka, has re­ cently launched a pilot with a millet­based diet in Bengaluru and has started distributing a millet­based snack to schoolchildren in Telangana.

been a 2.29 per cent improve­ ment in the overall ve­year trend of the IDI for India. The study said, “The country performs best (44th) in terms of Intergenerational Equity and Sustainability, pro ting from a low dependency ratio that is set to further decline as the eco­ nomy reaps the dividends of an extremely young population (28 per cent of the Indian population was younger than 14 years in 2017).” Though the incidence of poverty has declined in India over the past ve years, six out of 10 Indians still live on less than $3.20 per day. Both labour productivity and GDP per capita posted strong growth rates over the past ve years, while employment growth has slowed. Healthy life expect­ ancy also increased by approxim­ ately three years to 59.6, the study added. Norway tops the chart According to the study, Norway tops the chart followed by Ice­ land and Luxemburg in ad­ vanced economies. Lithuania, Hungary, and Azerbaijan are the toppers among the emerging economies. Also read p18

IAS officer Sanjeev Kaushik declines SEBI job PALAK SHAH Mumbai, January 22

Sanjeev Kaushik, the 1992 batch Kerala cadre IAS o cer who was appointed as a whole­time member with cap­ ital markets regulator SEBI, has declined the o er. Kaushik (48) has nearly 12 years of government service left but was asked to resign by the Central government to take up the job at SEBI, where he was appointed whole­time member for three years. Kaushik, currently on depu­ tation with the Finance Min­ istry, has instead chosen to go back to Kerala to take up the post of Principal Secretary, a source told BusinessLine. The government has made it mandatory for IAS o cers to resign from service if they take up the whole­time mem­ ber post with SEBI. Details p12

With SEBI raising bar for MFs, more underperformers may emerge Benchmarking with total returns index will affect large­cap funds the most ANALYSIS PARVATHA VARDHINI C BL Research Bureau

SEBI’s move to mandate bench­ marking mutual funds’ per­ formance to the Total Returns Index (TRI) from February 1 rather than the price index could increase the number of underdogs in funds. In 2017, almost half the 30 funds benchmarked to the BSE 100 index underperformed this index; two­thirds of the mid­ cap funds benchmarked to the Nifty Midcap 100 index fared worse than this index; and 43 per cent of the funds bench­ marked to the Nifty 500 index did not outdo this index. This under­performance can worsen when the TRI is used. TRI increases the benchmark return as it takes the dividend payout of stocks also into ac­

count besides capital appreci­ ation. Quantum Mutual Fund, DSPBR Mutual Fund and Edel­ weiss Mutual Fund are already using TRIs to measure perform­ ance. A study of the returns from 2011 shows that TRIs have bettered the price indices by 1­2 percentage points every year since then. This outperform­ ance remains when consider­ ing returns over 1­, 3­ and 5­year periods, too. Challenges ahead Mandatory benchmarking to the TRI implies that active fund managers may have to work harder to outdo the bench­ mark. And that is easier said than done. For one, this changeover comes at a time when, as per SEBI’s direction, a process of categorisation and rationalisation of mutual fund schemes is in the works. Under

this, SEBI has brought in a stricter de nition of large­ , mid­ and small­cap stocks as well as funds. These changes are expected to a ect large­cap funds the most. Consider this; six out of the 36 funds bench­ marked to the Nifty 50 re­ turned lower than the bench­ mark in the 2017 rally when considering the price index. But, compare it with the Nifty 50 TRI, the number of under­ performers double to 12.

Higher expense ratios charged by diversi ed large­ cap funds for their active man­ agement compared with the ETFs / index funds and narrow­ ing return di erential between these two categories are expec­ ted to give a leg­up to such pass­ ive funds. On the other hand, while mid­cap funds did have a bad 2017, moving to TRIs may not af­ fect them as much as large­ caps, says Radhika Gupta, CEO,

Edelweiss Mutual Fund. “If your fund size is reasonable, you are doing bottom up stock picking and betting on under­re­ searched sectors and stories, beating a TRI benchmark will not be a problem for mid­cap funds in the next few years,”she explains. However, Radhika adds that large­size mid­cap funds that have asset sizes of 10,000 crore or more may nd the go­ ing di cult after these changes as they would restrict their universe. Secondly, as TRI is a more

stringent benchmark, fund houses will also have to take a re­look at whether their present benchmarks are apt. Says Kunal Bajaj, Founder and CEO, Clearfunds.com: “SEBI’s January 2018 diktat on benchmarking to the TRI also requires mutual funds to select a benchmark that is in align­ ment with the investment ob­ jective, asset allocation pattern and investment strategy of the scheme.” Currently, inappro­ priate benchmarks for many funds drive up their outper­ formance.

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