PLAN30001 Options paper

Planning scenario and Policy Workshop (PLAN30001) Urban Management Options & Recommendation Paper Completed on 17/05/2020

Cover photo – Marina Barrage, Singapore as a reservoir and a tourist attraction (Geomotion Australia)

Student name: Manasi Chopdekar Student ID: 935401 Tutorial 2/ Tutor: Eric Gaisie

CONTENTS 1.

1.1.

1.2.

Introduction Problem statement Purpose of report

…3

2.

2.1.

…4 …5

2.3.

Case study analysis Issue of equitable access to drinking water in Mumbai, India Impact of climate change in reducing groundwater supply in Perth, Australia Comparison to Singapore’s water shortage issue

3.

3.1.

3.2.

3.3.

3.4.

3.5.

Stakeholder analysis Governance Providers Influencers Users Stakeholder analysis table

…7

4.

4.1.

4.2.

Uncertainty/impact matrix Key driving forces of water crisis in Singapore Two major influencing forces

…9 …10

5.

5.1.

Scenario development matrix and logics Three main scenarios

…11 …12

6.

Conclusion

…12

7.

References

…13

2.2.

…6 …5-6

…8

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Fig. 1 Political map showing location of Singapore and proximity to Malaysia (guideoftheworld 2018)

Introduction

As a large part of the global population still struggles to find access to clean drinking water (Reid 2020), this crisis has exacerbated over the last decade due to negative impacts of climate change and unsustainable population growth (Abbaspour, Faramarzi, Ghasemi and Yang, 2009, pg. 1). This emphasizes the urgency of the water shortage crisis in terms of needing new and innovative solutions in order to ensure a sustainable water supply (Aquatech 2019).

The main purpose of this report is to generate possible future scenarios related to water scarcity crisis in Singapore, a small island-nation in South East Asia (see fig. 1) that relies largely on imported water from Malaysia to meet its water needs (Zhi Xin, 2016). This report will analyze the manifestation of water scarcity crisis in the cities of Perth and Mumbai, and will compare the influence of different factors and mitigation methods between the two case studies and Singapore, after which it will identify key stakeholders and main factors involved with the issue in Singapore. This would altogether inform the final scenario matrix where deductive approach (Hanafizadeh, Hashemi & Parvin, 2009, pg. 29) would be applied to identify and analyze possible future scenarios.

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Case study analysis While other countries also face similar water scarcity issues as experienced by Singapore, the differences in its intensity and mitigation efforts is informed by the differences in the countries’ multifaceted influencing factors. In this section, Singapore’s water scarcity issue will be compared and contrasted to that experienced in Mumbai, India and Perth, Australia (see fig. 4).

AREA (SQ KM)

6418

TOTAL AREA COMPARISON

(a) Singapore

721.5

603.4

(Saruepee, 2020)

SINGAPORE

MUMBAI

PERTH

CITY Fig. 2.Area comparison between Singapore, Perth and Mumbai (Chopdekar 2020)

(b) Mumbai, India (grebeshkovmaxim, 2020)

317.7

8358

DENSITY/ SQ KM)

32303

POPULATION DENSITY COMPARISON

(c) Perth, Australia SINGAPORE

MUMBAI

PERTH

(postool 2020)

CITY Fig. 3. Population density comparison between Singapore, Perth and Mumbai (Chopdekar 2020)

Fig. 4 Shapes of Singapore, Mumbai and Perth - figures not to scale

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Case study 1: Issue of equitable access to drinking water in Mumbai, India The city of Mumbai, India faced a major urban water crisis due to insufficient rainfall and inadequate drinking water storage (Bose, 2019). Mumbai, in contrast to Singapore, has a larger population and unstainable population growth to support in a relatively smaller area of land (see fig. 2 and 3) as well as a smaller GDP per capita income (The Dollar Business Bureau 2017). A large portion of Mumbai’s increasing population join informal settlements (see fig. 5) which, along with the city’s rural population, face inequitable water distribution (see fig.

6) and lack of water infrastructure issues (Subbaraman, Shitole, Shitole, Sawant, O’Brien, Bloom & PatilDeshmukh 2013, pg. 2).

Fig. 5 Percentage of slum population to total population in Mumbai (Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India 2001)

Fig. 6 Slum dwellers depending on informal water supply operated by local strongmen (Kakade/AP)

Inadequate water supply from the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) has also created opportunities for exploitation of water resources and supply prices by private companies and local water gangs (Gandy 2008, pg. 117). While the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai provides piped water to majority of the city’s urban residents and working facilities (Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai 2020), it is not continuous and faces frequent infrastructural problems (Singh & Mehta 2020).

Apart from taking measures to provide equitable piped water access and conserve available water, BMC has recently issued plans to build the Gargai Dam as a mitigation effort, which would increase Mumbai’s water supply (Pinto 2020). Singapore, like Mumbai, also focuses on water conservation as a mitigation method.

However, due to having limited land for water storage, Singapore’s water supply depends largely on its reservoir that it had to build in Johor, Malaysia (Centre for Liveable Cities 2020). As Singapore is more technologically advanced, it relies more on its innovative water infrastructure operation to alleviate its water crisis (PUB 2020).

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Fig. 7. Perth’s trend in inflows, water supply and population (MacFarlane 2018)

Case study 2: Impact of climate change in reducing groundwater supply in Perth, Australia Perth in comparison to Mumbai and Singapore has a lower population and population density to support in a much larger area of land (see fig. 2 and 3). Due to climate change, Perth has since the past decade been facing continuous decline in rainfall, which, along with a growing population (see fig. 7) and increasing water consumption rate, continues to put its groundwater supply at risk (MacFarlane 2018).

Once heavily reliant on its dams, Perth had narrowly avoided running completely out of water because of imposed water restrictions and its Water Corporation’s early-executed complex strategy to develop innovative climate independent water sources to support its depleting dam and groundwater (Core 2020). This strategy could also be useful in the case of Singapore, which currently relies on rainwater as one of its four main water sources, and like Perth, has over the past decade experienced negative impacts of climate change like droughts and floods that affect its water supply.

Perth’s mitigation strategy as of the present is to avoid building more desalination plants, and instead, it is focusing more on wastewater recycling, groundwater replenishment and water conservation (Ceranic 2018).

Singapore, while proficient in wastewater recycling (Black and Veatch 2018), has recently extended its research and finances into finding groundwater sources within the nation, which would be a viable solution to its water crisis (Channel News Asia 2013).

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Fig. 8 Singapore’s water shortage crisis stakeholders divided into categories (Chopdekar, 2020)

Stakeholder analysis From the case study analysis, it can be seen that the different factors contributing to the water scarcity issue in these countries can be influenced by different stakeholders, each governed by their own interests and level of power.

Singapore’s major contributing factor to its water shortage issue is its limited availability of land area (Tortajada & Buurman 2017, pg. 1). It receives water from its four national taps – the local catchment, imported water from Johor, NEWater and desalinated water (PUB 2018) which involve very important governance facilities like Singapore’s Public Utilities Board and the Johor State Government (see Fig. 8 for some of the main stakeholders involved) who work together to supply this water to the city’s population. Stakeholders also involve those impacted by the crisis, including Singapore’s local and immigrant population, industry and foreign workers, who can influence the crisis by conserving water. Some of these stakeholders have been further analyzed in the stakeholder analysis table.

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Stakeholder analysis table

Table 1. Stakeholder analysis table for water shortage in Singapore (Chopdekar, 2020)

Legend:

Very high

Medium to high

Low

Stakeholder in blue – most important

From table. 1, it can be seen that while researchers and NGOs can have a high influence on the issue and its future manifestation in Singapore, the power to make a substantiated change/difference lies with the governance sector and the current residents.

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Influencing factors- uncertainty matrix In order to arrive at two main driving forces that most impact Singapore’s water scarcity issue, analysis on all of its influencing factors needs to be conducted (see Fig. 9 below) as per their level of impact and how uncertain their future trends are.

Fig. 9 Risk assessment matrix for uncertainty (Chopdekar, 2020)

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Main driving forces The stakeholder analysis had given a deeper understanding of the multifaceted driving forces that can impact Singapore’s water shortage crisis. In order to come up with possible future scenarios pertaining the issue, it is important to understand the past trends that some of the most impactful and uncertain driving forces have shown and their levels of uncertainty in terms of future projections (see table. 2). This analysis will inform the scenario matrix that would use two most important driving forces chosen.

Table 2. Analysis of major driving forces (Chopdekar, 2020)

Drought frequency and technological advancements in water management, which are most unpredictable, highly impactful and unrelated in terms of their influence over each other, are the two chosen driving forces that will be used to build the scenario matrix to understand potential impacts on Singapore’s water shortage crisis on the city's future water supply.

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Scenario development matrix and logics Based on the different directions that technological advancement level and frequency of droughts can take, four possible scenarios have been identified by examining the relationship between the two factors (see Fig. 10). through backcasting by analyzing key driving forces and stakeholder influence that leads to each possible outcome (Gaisie 2020).

LOW

HIGH

‘The water-sensitive city’ • •

Reduced dependency on imported water Will export its water management technology to other nations – boosts economy Tensions with Malaysia over water prices would reduce (Chik 2019) Successfully mitigated the impacts of climate change on Linggiu reservoir (see major driving forces – drought on page 10) Guaranteed water security for its growing population Some water infrastructure land may be freed up for other purposes (see stakeholder analysis – developers and future residents)

•

•

Improved water quality + reservoirs fill up

•

• •

Even if Johor’s Linggiu reservoir dries up, Singapore will have back-up options like its own groundwater sources (see Singapore’s case study analysis with Perth on page 6) and its climate-independent replenishment processes Water Agreement with Malaysia will be terminated earlier than scheduled.

Land use will conflict between water infrastructure and more accommodation for growing population (see stakeholder analysis – developers on page 8).

Climate change mitigation efforts insufficient

Reservoirs dry up

‘No need for conservation?’

•

• •

Linggiu reservoir fills up – reduces pressure on imported water source so political tensions between Malaysia and Singapore over water prices can reduce (Chik 2019) Overdependence on existing tech continues Pressure on Singapore’s climate-dependent water sources from other factors like flooding which low tech development will not be able to accommodate (see main driving forces on page 10)

Overdependence on existing tech

LOW

Innovations in water management R & D

•

‘Self-sufficient Singapore’

‘All drained out’ • •

•

Unsustainable water consumption

HIGH

•

Climate-independent water management tech

Drought frequency

•

Residents placed under water restrictions (MacFarlane 2018 ) Linggiu reservoir dries up completely, resulting in the loss of at least one of Singapore’s four national taps with no alternative sources Water tensions with Malaysia increase as prices surge (see main driving forces – political conflicts on page 10).

Grassroots initiatives crop up to brainstorm water conservation methods

Fig. 10 Scenario matrix (Chopdekar, 2020)

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Main scenarios to analyze Three scenarios that are chosen for further analysis in this research are: No need for conservation?

• Trend continues as per current situation • Increased funding into research and development is not guaranteed to produce feasible and innovative results • Climate-dependent water sources are susceptible to other forces which would need more bottom-up solutions – community role in water shortage crisis Self-sufficient Singapore • Most viable outcome – need to identify potential challenges to achieving Singapore’s current end goal (Jacobson 2012).

• Drought frequency will increase (see main driving forces – drought trends) – having climate-independent water technology would be most efficient in accommodating for loss of reservoir supply (Jamshed 2019).

The water-sensitive city • So far only a theoretical concept (CRC for Water Sensitive Cities Ltd 2020) – a desirable outcome which, if achieved, can become a model for other cities • Applying effective conservation strategies, incentives and funding for tech development can make this achievable • Understanding the challenges of flashfloods and heavy rainfall trends presently to combat climate change impact in the future

Conclusion Singapore’s water shortage crisis is driven by a complex relationship between different influencing factors and stakeholders. While Mumbai and Perth’s case study analysis show a different perspective on the same issue, they also offer insight into the kind of scenarios and solutions that can and cannot work in Singapore. This report has also proven that among the different stakeholders, the ones that can make a substantial difference are the involved government and research bodies, and Singapore’s current residents. The worst-case and as-is scenario explorations subsequently show that cooperation and early interaction between these stakeholders can help achieve the more viable and desirable outcomes.

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REFERENCES Abbaspour, K. C., Faramarzi M., Ghasemi S. S. & Yang H. (2009). Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources in Iran. Water resources research, 45, 1-16. doi: 10.1029/2008WR007615 Aquatech. (2019). Sustainable water: Our essential guide to sustainable water resource management solutions & strategies. Retrieved from https://www.aquatechtrade.com/news/water-treatment/sustainable-water-essential-guide/ Black & Veatch, (2018, May 2). Singapore’s Advanced Wastewater Treatment Technologies Wins Global Recognition. Eco-Business. Retrieved from https://www.eco-business.com/pressreleases/singapores-advanced-wastewater-treatment-technologies-wins-global-recognition/ Bose, M. (2019, Jun 27). Now, water crisis looms large over Mumbai. Deccan Herald. Retrieved from https://www.deccanherald.com/national/now-water-crisis-looms-large-over-mumbai743241.html Centre for Liveable Cities. (2020). Water shortages and rationing in Singapore. Retrieved from https://eresources.nlb.gov.sg/infopedia/articles/SIP_2020-02-20_192848.html Ceranic, I. (2018, Jun 21). Perth dodged a water crisis like Cape Town's Day Zero — but the city's still not out of the woods. ABC News. Retrieved from https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-21/how-perth-dodged-its-own-water-crisis-like-dayzero-in-cape-town/9891472 Channel News Asia. (2013, May 27). Underground reservoirs could be Singapore’s “fifth tap”.

Eco-Business. Retrieved from https://www.eco-business.com/news/underground-reservoirscould-be-singapores-fifth-tap/ Chik, H.A. (2019, Apr 23). Foreign minister says water price dispute with Singapore not about profit but fairness. Malay mail. Retrieved from https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2019/04/23/foreign-minister-says-water-pricedispute-with-singapore-not-about-profit-b/1745946 Core L.N. (2020, Feb 5). Perth’s fresh water thinking for urban water security [Blog post].

Retrieved from https://blogs.worldbank.org/water/perths-fresh-water-thinking-urban-watersecurity CRC for Water Sensitive Cities Ltd. (2020). What is a water sensitive city?. Retrieved from https://watersensitivecities.org.au/what-is-a-water-sensitive-city/ Gaisie, E. (2020, May 7). PLAN30001 Planning Scenario and Policy Workshop, tutorial 2, week 8: Scenario analysis [Tutorial PowerPoint slides]. University of Melbourne.

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REFERENCES (cont.)

Gandy, M. (2008). Landscapes of Disaster: Water, Modernity, and Urban Fragmentation in Mumbai. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 40(1), 108–130. https://doi.org/10.1068/a3994 Hanafizadeh, P., Hashemi A. & Parvin, E. S. (2009). Robust Strategic Planning Employing Scenario Planning and Fuzzy Inference System. International Journal of Decision Support System Technology, 1(3), 21-45. doi: 10.4018/jdsst.2009070102 Jacobson, M. (2012). Singapore water management: Water scarcity prompts water selfsufficiency. WWF - World Wide Fund For Nature. Retrieved from https://wwf.panda.org/?204587/Singapore Jamshed, Z. (2019, Sept. 25). How Singapore is using technology to solve its water shortage.

CNN Business. Retrieved from https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/25/tech/singapore-watertechnology-innovative-cities/index.html MacFarlane, D. (2018). Is Perth really running out of water? Well, yes and no. The Conversation. Retrieved from https://theconversation.com/is-perth-really-running-out-ofwater-well-yes-and-no-90857 Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai (2020). Water works. Retrieved from https://portal.mcgm.gov.in/irj/portal/anonymous?NavigationTarget=navurl://06f20212cc919d a73149e1e9ef479e42&guest_user=english Pinto, R. (2020, Jan 7). BMC plans Rs 3,000 crore dam to boost water to Mumbai. Times of India. Retrieved from https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/bmc-plans-rs-3000crore-dam-to-boost-water-to-mumbai/articleshow/73130984.cms PUB. (2020). Singapore Water Story. Retrieved from https://www.pub.gov.sg/watersupply/singaporewaterstory Reid, K. (2020). Global water crisis: Facts, FAQs, and how to help. Retrieved from https://www.worldvision.org/clean-water-news-stories/global-water-crisis-facts Singh, V.V. & Mehta M.K. (2020, February 2). Damage to water pipeline leaves suburbs thirsty, BMC & MMRDA play blame game. Times of India. Retrieved from https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/damage-to-water-pipeline-leaves-suburbsthirsty-bmc-mmrda-play-blame-game/articleshow/73858942.cms Subbaraman, R., Shitole, S., Shitole, T., Sawant, K., O’Brien J., Bloom, D.E. & Patil-Deshmukh, A. (2013). The social ecology of water in a Mumbai slum: failures in water quality, quantity, and reliability. BMC Public Health, 13(173), 1-14. Retrieved from https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/track/pdf/10.1186/1471-2458-13-173

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REFERENCES (cont.)

Subbaraman, R., Shitole, S., Shitole, T., Sawant, K., O’Brien J., Bloom, D.E. & Patil-Deshmukh, A. (2013). The social ecology of water in a Mumbai slum: failures in water quality, quantity, and reliability. BMC Public Health, 13(173), 1-14. Retrieved from https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/track/pdf/10.1186/1471-2458-13-173 The Dollar Business Bureau. (2017). Mumbai and Delhi rank as 5th and 6th largest cities in Asia with a combined GDP of over $400 bn: JLL ‘Global 300’ Rankings. Retrieved from https://www.thedollarbusiness.com/news/mumbai-and-delhi-rank-as-5th-and-6th-largestcities-in-asia-with-a-combined-gdp-of-over-400-bn-jll-global-300-rankings/50412 Tortajada, C. & Buurman, J. (2017). Water Policy in Singapore. Global-is-Asian 1-8. Retrieved from https://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/docs/default-source/gia-documents/water-policy-in-singaporegraphics-3.pdf?sfvrsn=38446c0a_2 Zhi Xin, T. (2016, Sept 22). Singapore’s biggest threat? The water crisis at its door. ASEAN Today. Retrieved from https://www.aseantoday.com/2016/09/singapores-fight-for-survivalprime-minister-lee-warns-of/

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REFERENCES (maps, graphs, figures and tables) Cover photo: Geomotion Australia. Marina Barrage, Singapore [photo]. Retrieved from https://www.geomotion.com.au/marina-barrage-singapore.html Fig 1 Guideoftheworld. (2018). Political map showing location of Singapore and proximity to Malaysia [Map]. Guideoftheworld: Author. Retrieved from http://www.guideoftheworld.com/singapore-map.html Fig 2 Chopdekar, M. (2020). Area comparison between Singapore, Perth and Mumbai [graph].

Values adapted from Google 2020.

Fig 3 Chopdekar, M. (2020). Population density comparison between Singapore, Perth and Mumbai [graph]. Values adapted from Google 2020.

Fig. 4 Shapes of Singapore, Mumbai and Perth - figures not to scale.

Fig. 4 (a) Saruepee. (2020). Singapore [image]. Retrieved from https://www.vectorstock.com/royalty-free-vector/map-of-singapore-high-detailed-mapsingapore-vector-22403723 Fig. 4 (b) grebeshkovmaxim. (2020). Mumbai, India [image]. Retrieved from https://www.vectorstock.com/royalty-free-vector/high-quality-map-city-of-india-vector22515691 Fig. 4 (c) Postool. (2020).Perth, Australia [image]. Retrieved from http://www.postool.com.au/cbeh/pos/faq/ Fig. 5 Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India. (2001). Percentage of slum population to total population in Mumbai [Map]. Retrieved from https://censusindia.gov.in/maps/Town_maps/Mum_slum_pop.aspx Fig. 6 Kakade, R./AP. Slum dwellers depending on informal water supply operated by local strongmen [photograph]. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2017/feb/27/deathtrap-toilets-mumbai-india-slums Fig. 7 MacFarlane, D. (2018). Perth’s trend in inflows, water supply and population [graph].

Adapted from Water Corporation. Retrieved from https://theconversation.com/is-perth-reallyrunning-out-of-water-well-yes-and-no-90857 Fig. 8 Chopdekar, M. (2020). Singapore’s water shortage crisis stakeholders divided into categories [chart]. Adapted from Harrin, E. (2010). 4 Types of Stakeholders in Project Management. Retrieved from https://pmtips.net/article/4-types-of-stakeholders-in-projectmanagement

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REFERENCES (maps, graphs, figures and tables) Fig. 9 Chopdekar, M. (2020). Risk assessment matrix for uncertainty [chart]. Adapted from Gaisie, E. (2020, May 7). PLAN30001 Planning Scenario and Policy Workshop, tutorial 2, week 8: Scenario analysis [Tutorial PowerPoint slides]. University of Melbourne.

Fig. 10 Chopdekar, M. (2020). Scenario matrix [chart]. Adapted from Gaisie, E. (2020, May 7).

PLAN30001 Planning Scenario and Policy Workshop, tutorial 2, week 8: Scenario analysis [Tutorial PowerPoint slides]. University of Melbourne.

Tables: Table 1: Chopdekar, M. (2020). Stakeholder analysis table for water shortage in Singapore [table]. Data adapted from Government of Singapore. (2020). National Research Foundation: Corporate Profile. Retrieved from https://www.nrf.gov.sg/about-nrf/national-researchfoundation-singapore , from Hyflux Ltd. (2020). Wastewater Treatment & Recycling. Retrieved from https://www.hyflux.com/solutions/wastewater-treatment-recycling/ , from NEA. (2012).

Our Environment: Safeguard, Nurture, Cherish. National Environmental Agency. Retrieved from https://www.nea.gov.sg/docs/default-source/envision/our-environment---safeguard-nurturecherish.pdf , from NEA. (2019). About Us. Retrieved from https://www.nea.gov.sg/corporatefunctions/who-we-are , from PUB. (2020). About Us. Retrieved from https://www.pub.gov.sg/about , from URA. (2020). Who we are. Retrieved from https://www.ura.gov.sg/Corporate/About-Us , from WWS. (2020). Waterways Watch Society (WWS). Retrieved from http://www.wws.org.sg/ Table 2: Chopdekar, M. (2020). Analysis of major driving forces [table]. Data adapted from A Paulo, D. & Guangzheng A. (2019, Dec 21). Climate change, floods and drought: Here’s how badly Singapore could be affected. Channel News Asia. Retrieved from https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/cnainsider/how-badly-climate-change-floodsdrought-could-affect-singapore-12202206 , from Lai, L. (2016, May 27). PUB to widen monitoring of groundwater. Straits Times. Retrieved from https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/environment/pub-to-widen-monitoring-ofgroundwater , from National Drought Mitigation Centre. (2020). Predicting Drought. University of Nebraska. Retrieved from https://drought.unl.edu/Education/DroughtIndepth/Predicting.aspx , from Redbean De Pte Ltd. (2018). Quenching our thirst. Innovation in Water Singapore, 10, 1-50. Retrieved from https://www.pub.gov.sg/Documents/Innovation_in_Water_Singapore_Vol10.pdf , from Ryan, D. (2018, Jul 19). Putting out the Fire: The Water Dispute Between Malaysia and Singapore. The Diplomat. Retrieved from https://thediplomat.com/2018/07/putting-out-the-fire-the-waterdispute-between-malaysia-and-singapore/ , from Tan, A. (2016, Nov 6). Use less water, PM Lee reminds as Johor reservoir dries up. Straits Times. Retrieved from https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/environment/use-less-water-pm-reminds-as-reservoirdries-up

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