PLAN30001 Final report by Manasi Chopdekar

PLAN30001 (Scenario Planning Final Report) Completed on 14/06/2020 Pages: 22 | Word count: 2029

Manasi Chopdekar (935401) Tutorial 2/ Tutor: Eric Gaisie Cover photo â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Marina Barrage, Singapore (Teng Chye 2019)

CONTENTS 1. 1.1. 1.2. 1.3.

Introduction Problem statement Implications of current crisis on urban living Recent climate change impact

…3 …3 …4 …5

2. 2.1. 2.2. 2.2.1 2.3. 2.4. 2.4.1 2.4.2 2.4.3

Scenario analysis Scenario matrix Strategic direction: Sustainability Its key indicators Scenario evaluation table Singapore: A water-sensitive city Key features SWOT Analysis Government strategy on water shortage crisis mitigation

…6 …6 …7 …7 …8 …9 …9 …10 …10

Current policies to achieve water-sensitivity

…11

4. 4.1. 4.1.1. 4.2. 4.2.1.

New policy recommendations Broad strategy Case study – precedent analysis Policy recommendations Facilitating an interdisciplinary learning approach to green planning Using stormwater to manage urban trees Incentives for developers to produce cost and energy-efficient desalination facilities

…12 …12 …12 …13 …13

5. 5.1.

Conclusion Reflection

…16 …16

References

…17

4.2.2. 4.2.3.

List of abbreviations BCA CSGN HDB NEA NRF PUB R&D URA

…14 …15

Full form Building and Construction Authority Central Scotland Green Network Housing Development Board National Environmental Agency National Research Foundation Public Utilities board Research and Development Urban Redevelopment Authority

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INTRODUCTION

Rapid urbanization of cities has placed an increasing pressure on their natural resources (Satterthwaite, 2011, pg. 1763). This has become problematic for cities like Singapore that have limited land resources (International Water Association 2019) and no groundwater sources (Lai 2016) to support their growing population, which has led to nationwide water shortage. This report will analyze the implications of Singapore’s urban water crisis on its urban design and population and will identify its main influencing factors. This would inform the development of a desired future scenario based on a set strategic direction, following which policy recommendations would be proposed with an aim to achieve the desired outcome by 2061, which is when Singapore’s Water Agreement with Malaysia would expire (Ministry of Foreign Affairs 2020).

Problem statement “Limited availability of land, climate change and increase in urban population (Yuen-C 2019), combined with heavy reliance on climatedependent water sources (Tan 2016) to fulfil its population’s water demand has created an urban water crisis in the small island-nation of Singapore, resulting in conflicting land uses, and socio-economic conflict and equity issues over distribution of available clean water (Zhi Xin 2016). This can cause nationwide water stress by 2040 (The Sunday Times 2017) and risk availability of water resources for Singapore’s future generations if appropriate measures to alleviate the water crisis are not taken in time.”

Land shortage

Climate change

Population increase

Water shortage

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Implications of current crisis on urban living Social implications Current residents need to conserve water, or the water crisis would worsen in the future, and the population may face imposed water restrictions (MacFarlane 2018). This also places importance on NGO conducted awareness and reservoir-clean up programs (WWS 2020).

Spatial implications With conflicting land uses, available spatial resources would need to be allocated efficiently through a joint effort by the URA, NEA, HDB and PUB.

Institutional implications Singapore’s NRF and other research facilities will face increased pressure to finance and develop innovative cost and energy-efficient water management technologies in a lesser span of time (PUB 2020).

Economic implications Flashfloods will occur more frequently (A Paulo & Guangzheng 2019) and this could cause severe damage to Singapore’s reservoirs and would require part of the nation’s income to be spent on repairs.

Environmental implications Singapore’s green spaces would need to become self-sufficient to reduce pressure on available water resources for its management (Nouri, Borujeni & Hoekstra 2019, pg. 1).

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Fig. 1 Drought-affected area near Linggiu reservoir (Nadarajan 2016)

Recent climate change impacts Drought is caused by many factors including climate change, and is difficult to predict. The severity of its impact on Singapore’s water supply can be understood by observing the drought-struck Linggiu Reservoir in Johor in 2016 (see Fig. 1). The historically low levels of water have raised concerns about availability of imported water in the future, which is one of Singapore’s four national taps (Ming En 2016).

Technological advancements facilitating an increasing reliance on climateindependent water sources (see Fig. 2) would help to balance this impact of climate change on current and future availability of water (PUB, Singapore’s National Water Agency 2018, pg. 25). To develop plausible future scenarios regarding Singapore’s water crisis, the relationship between these two factors, namely ‘drought’ and ‘innovations in water management R & D’ have been examined using a scenario matrix.

Fig. 2 Singapore’s water demand distribution between its four national taps (PUB, 2016)

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SCENARIO ANALYSIS The scenario matrix produces four different scenarios based on the frequency of drought occurrence in the future and whether there would be sufficient innovation in water technology R & D to reduce the overall damage to the different aspects of urban water system brought on by drought.

Scenario matrix As-is situation

Worst outcome

No need for conservation?

All drained out

HIGH