Bangkok Business Brief - Volume 1, Issue 12 - Mid-November/December 2012

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BANGKOK

BUSINESS BRIEF

Vol. No. 1, Issue No. 12

Mid-November/Mid-December 2012

Read new business briefs everyday at www.BBBrief.com

The Life of Pi By Alan Verstein

Martin Armstrong is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is known for his economic predictions based on his own ‘Economic Confidence Model,’ which is based on historical business cycles and pi. His theory predicts that

Inside General Interest Finance/Investment Government/Economy Production Retail/Services Tourism IT/Comms Real Estate The Chambers The Calendar

2 3 4 5 6 8 10 12 14 22

boom-bust cycles occur exactly every 8.6 years (or 3,141 days, which is the number pi times one thousand). He famously predicted the crash of 1987 to the day. In 1999, the US Securities and Exchange Commission indicted him for fraud. He was then charged with civil contempt by the government and spent over seven years in prison for failing to surrender various assets thought to be purchased with money from the investment in question. He eventually plead guilty to one count of conspiracy and served 4.5 years of a 5-year sentence. His website is http://armstrongeconomics.com.

MA: We’re putting out a report about Thailand, Taiwan, China, Korea, India, Singapore, Vietnam, Philippines, the whole basic region. What’s interesting is that what I created with the computer, by putting everything together and having the computer do things consistently, so that it’s not one person’s opinion because everybody has an opinion.

It can only be as good as what our experiences are, that’s about it, but when you start putting together everything and you’re correlating, what’s strikingly different, is that even if you look for the little subtle things, like the credit rating agencies upgrading Korea and upgrading the Philippines, you go to Europe and they downgrade everything. Everything is shifting and you can see it BBB: Where does Asia stand to- in the States. It’s getting really, reday? Are we at the beginning, the ally bad that they’re so concerned about every dime. They passed laws middle or the end?

last December... it’s very draconian. If I didn’t have partners outside the country, I don’t know if I could reestablish anything anymore. Gee, if you send $5,000 outside the country, you might be hiding something. Well, maybe I’m paying a bill. We’re going look to see if you paid taxes on that. It’s just getting really crazy. And you’re really bringing the ‘velocity of money’ down internationally. BBB: How does the velocity of money enter the equation for what you see for Asia? MA: The velocity’s been increasing over here [in Asia] quite dramatically. I think everyone is just focused primarily on the United States and Europe, especially. And they’re overlooking what’s happening in Asia. Forty percent of China’s imports are coming from the rest of Story continues on Page 19

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