Greater Phoenix Real Estate Market Report
Table 7 December 2009 Greater Phoenix Single Family Detached Sales (No Other ARMLS Residential Categories Included) Residential Sold Price Range
Sales
Active Listings
Under $50,999 50,000 to 99,999 100,000 to 149,999 150,000 to 199,999 200,000 to 249,999 250,000 to 299,999 300,000 to 349,999 350,000 to 399,999 400,000 to 499,999 500,000 to 599,999 600,000 to 699,999 700,000 to 799,999 800,000 to 899,999 900,000 to 999,999 1,000,000 to 1,499,999 1,500,000 to 1,999,999 2,000,000 to 2,999,999 Over 3,000,000
484 1,630 1,672 1,054 565 371 246 158 159 84 56 45 28 15 42 15 14 4
710 3,839 5,117 4,117 2,526 1,959 1,214 1,090 1,320 860 644 461 418 350 775 444 158 402
TOTAL
6,642
26,404
Estimated Months of Supply
Mean Price Per Sq. Ft.
Short Sales (No.)
Short Sales (%)
LenderOwned Sales (No.)
LenderOwned Sales ( %)
1.5 2.4 3.1 3.9 4.5 5.3 4.9 6.9 8.3 10.2 11.5 10.2 14.9 23.3 18.5 29.6 11.3 100.5
$30.49 $53.04 $73.33 $92.17 $107.00 $118.74 $125.46 $136.88 $150.44 $179.85 $189.00 $215.62 $208.39 $210.26 $261.32 $311.63 $411.66 $584.22
72 437 407 281 143 96 52 27 25 16 10 8 2 2 4 3 1 0
15% 27% 24% 27% 25% 26% 21% 17% 16% 19% 18% 18% 7% 13% 10% 20% 7% 0%
340 861 757 354 173 106 69 35 38 26 10 11 10 2 13 2 4 1
70% 53% 45% 34% 31% 29% 28% 22% 24% 31% 18% 24% 36% 13% 31% 13% 29% 25%
4.0
$86.74
1,586
24%
2,812
42%
Other (No.) 73 332 508 418 249 169 125 96 96 42 36 26 16 11 25 10 9 3 2,244
Other (%)
Total
15% 20% 30% 40% 44% 46% 51% 61% 60% 50% 64% 58% 57% 73% 60% 67% 64% 75% 34%
100% 100% 99% 101% 100% 101% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 101% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Some percentages may add up to 99% or 101% due to rounding.
Residential Focus By Fletcher Wilcox, Vice President of Business Development, Grand Canyon Title Agency, Inc. Fwilcox@GCTA.Com 602-648-1230
8
The Melcher Agency
Market Dynamics Median Price (FS, UC, Sold) 2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10
KEY INFORMATION Jan-08
Jan-10
For Sale
255,000
Under Contract
229,900
Sold
227,350
Percent Change
160,000
-95,000
-37.3
129,900
-100,000
-43.5
125,000
-102,350
-45.0
MLS: ARMLS
Period:
Property Types:
Residential: (Single Family-Detached, Patio Home, Townhouse, Apartment, Loft, Other)
All MLS:
Arizona Regional MLS
BrokerMetrics®
2 Years (Monthly)
Median Price Change
Price:
All
Construction Type:
All
Bedrooms:
All
Bathrooms:
All
Lot Size: All Sq Ft:
1 of 2 Information not guaranteed. © 2010 - 2011 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).
All
02/14/10
The Melcher Agency
Market Dynamics Median Price (FS, UC, Sold) 2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10
Time Period
FOR SALE Median $ # Properties
UNDER CONTRACT Median $ # Properties
SOLD Median $ # Properties
EXPIRED Median $ # Properties
NEW LISTINGS Median $ # Properties
Jan-10
160,000
51,972
129,900
6,954
125,000
5,638
175,000
4,840
149,000
12,789
Dec-09
160,000
48,966
125,000
5,812
128,000
7,438
180,000
3,971
134,900
10,220
Nov-09
168,900
48,509
129,900
6,003
132,000
7,276
198,000
3,760
142,900
10,581
Oct-09
169,000
49,431
130,000
7,473
130,000
7,859
199,000
4,030
145,000
12,778
Sep-09
169,900
48,524
129,900
7,887
130,000
7,641
200,000
3,984
142,900
12,209
Aug-09
170,000
48,575
129,900
8,153
127,500
7,761
199,900
4,107
139,900
12,187
Jul-09
175,000
49,476
125,900
8,094
126,900
8,834
205,000
4,994
139,900
12,470
Jun-09
179,000
50,895
128,500
8,707
125,635
9,066
215,000
5,182
139,900
12,315
May-09
181,025
53,252
127,500
8,877
120,000
9,034
219,900
5,795
144,900
10,705
Apr-09
179,000
59,180
120,000
10,540
115,500
8,351
199,900
6,093
148,900
10,864
Mar-09
174,677
64,815
120,000
9,506
120,000
7,426
180,000
6,993
139,800
13,974
Feb-09
175,000
64,873
124,900
7,217
125,000
5,319
179,000
6,815
149,900
12,380
Jan-09
179,000
67,603
129,900
6,299
130,000
4,594
199,900
8,811
159,995
13,441
Dec-08
179,900
66,982
137,000
5,055
144,000
5,409
199,900
7,765
138,900
11,668
Nov-08
189,500
66,892
147,900
4,490
151,900
4,267
210,000
7,088
155,700
12,139
Oct-08
195,000
67,414
151,900
5,015
165,000
5,258
219,000
7,646
161,250
14,336
Sep-08
200,000
66,355
168,400
5,380
172,500
5,977
225,000
7,897
169,900
13,929
Aug-08
212,000
65,654
174,900
5,539
186,000
5,491
232,000
7,689
175,000
13,261
Jul-08
220,000
68,039
189,900
6,845
193,000
5,856
239,000
8,801
181,000
13,196
Jun-08
229,900
70,145
199,900
6,137
203,908
5,607
249,800
9,165
192,000
13,250
May-08
239,000
71,286
210,000
5,688
210,070
5,438
252,000
8,703
205,000
12,746
Apr-08
244,900
72,617
219,900
5,454
217,000
4,638
249,900
8,623
219,900
13,457
Mar-08
249,900
71,983
224,792
4,570
218,000
4,133
260,000
8,253
224,900
13,173
Feb-08
250,000
70,545
226,154
3,865
220,000
3,276
260,000
7,870
232,000
12,700
Jan-08
255,000
70,267
229,900
3,469
227,350
2,808
260,000
8,953
239,999
15,540
BrokerMetrics®
2 of 2 Information not guaranteed. © 2010 - 2011 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).
02/14/10
The Melcher Agency
Market Dynamics Sold Average vs. Median Price 2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10
KEY INFORMATION Jan-08
Jan-10
Price Change
Percent Change
Average
320,933
178,235
-142,697
-44.5
Median
227,350
125,000
-102,350
-45.0
MLS: ARMLS
Period:
Property Types:
Residential: (Single Family-Detached, Patio Home, Townhouse, Apartment, Loft, Other)
All MLS:
Arizona Regional MLS
BrokerMetrics®
2 Years (Monthly)
Price:
All
Construction Type:
All
Bedrooms:
All
Bathrooms:
All
Lot Size: All Sq Ft:
1 of 2 Information not guaranteed. © 2010 - 2011 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).
All
02/14/10
The Melcher Agency
Market Dynamics Sold Average vs. Median Price 2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10
Time Period
# Properties Sold
Sold Average $
Sold Median $
Average $ - Median $
Median $ as % of Average $
Sold Avg DOM
Jan-10
5,638
178,235
125,000
53,235
70.1
91
Dec-09
7,438
179,503
128,000
51,503
71.3
92
Nov-09
7,276
176,106
132,000
44,106
75.0
89
Oct-09
7,859
171,830
130,000
41,830
75.7
89
Sep-09
7,641
176,109
130,000
46,109
73.8
93
Aug-09
7,761
172,180
127,500
44,680
74.0
99
Jul-09
8,834
177,299
126,900
50,399
71.6
110
Jun-09
9,066
171,942
125,635
46,307
73.1
116
May-09
9,034
164,140
120,000
44,140
73.1
120
Apr-09
8,351
159,607
115,500
44,107
72.4
122
Mar-09
7,426
160,126
120,000
40,126
74.9
127
Feb-09
5,319
173,320
125,000
48,320
72.1
122
Jan-09
4,594
181,469
130,000
51,469
71.6
114
Dec-08
5,409
191,932
144,000
47,932
75.0
108
Nov-08
4,267
205,420
151,900
53,520
74.0
111
Oct-08
5,258
212,942
165,000
47,942
77.5
116
Sep-08
5,977
220,095
172,500
47,595
78.4
101
Aug-08
5,491
239,512
186,000
53,512
77.7
114
Jul-08
5,856
251,861
193,000
58,861
76.6
124
Jun-08
5,607
267,344
203,908
63,436
76.3
132
May-08
5,438
274,981
210,070
64,912
76.4
128
Apr-08
4,638
284,028
217,000
67,028
76.4
135
Mar-08
4,133
300,290
218,000
82,290
72.6
132
Feb-08
3,276
297,945
220,000
77,945
73.8
138
Jan-08
2,808
320,933
227,350
93,583
70.8
139
BrokerMetricsÂŽ
2 of 2 Information not guaranteed. Š 2010 - 2011 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).
02/14/10
The Melcher Agency
Market Dynamics Supply & Demand - # Units (FS, UC, Sold) 2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10
KEY INFORMATION Jan-08
Jan-10
# Units Change
For Sale
70,267
51,972
-18,295
-26.0
Under Contract
3,469
6,954
3,485
100.5
Sold
2,808
5,638
2,830
100.8
MLS: ARMLS
Period:
Property Types:
Residential: (Single Family-Detached, Patio Home, Townhouse, Apartment, Loft, Other)
All MLS:
Arizona Regional MLS
BrokerMetrics®
2 Years (Monthly)
Price:
All
Percent Change
Construction Type:
All
Bedrooms:
All
Bathrooms:
All
Lot Size: All Sq Ft:
1 of 2 Information not guaranteed. © 2010 - 2011 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).
All
02/14/10
The Melcher Agency
Market Dynamics Supply & Demand - # Units (FS, UC, Sold) 2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10
Time Period
FOR SALE # Properties Average DOM
UNDER CONTRACT # Properties Average DOM
SOLD # Properties Average DOM
EXPIRED # Properties Average DOM
NEW LISTINGS # Properties
Jan-10
51,972
137
6,954
84
5,638
91
4,840
189
12,789
Dec-09
48,966
162
5,812
86
7,438
92
3,971
176
10,220
Nov-09
48,509
176
6,003
86
7,276
89
3,760
178
10,581
Oct-09
49,431
185
7,473
85
7,859
89
4,030
183
12,778
Sep-09
48,524
197
7,887
87
7,641
93
3,984
189
12,209
Aug-09
48,575
205
8,153
89
7,761
99
4,107
188
12,187
Jul-09
49,476
215
8,094
95
8,834
110
4,994
202
12,470
Jun-09
50,895
223
8,707
107
9,066
116
5,182
201
12,315
May-09
53,252
231
8,877
123
9,034
120
5,795
198
10,705
Apr-09
59,180
229
10,540
122
8,351
122
6,093
191
10,864
Mar-09
64,815
226
9,506
124
7,426
127
6,993
184
13,974
Feb-09
64,873
232
7,217
127
5,319
122
6,815
179
12,380
Jan-09
67,603
236
6,299
125
4,594
114
8,811
201
13,441
Dec-08
66,982
238
5,055
115
5,409
108
7,765
186
11,668
Nov-08
66,892
239
4,490
107
4,267
111
7,088
181
12,139
Oct-08
67,414
238
5,015
108
5,258
116
7,646
178
14,336
Sep-08
66,355
238
5,380
115
5,977
101
7,897
180
13,929
Aug-08
65,654
238
5,539
106
5,491
114
7,689
185
13,261
Jul-08
68,039
234
6,845
119
5,856
124
8,801
179
13,196
Jun-08
70,145
234
6,137
125
5,607
132
9,165
184
13,250
May-08
71,286
234
5,688
128
5,438
128
8,703
179
12,746
Apr-08
72,617
234
5,454
131
4,638
135
8,623
177
13,457
Mar-08
71,983
235
4,570
133
4,133
132
8,253
180
13,173
Feb-08
70,545
237
3,865
134
3,276
138
7,870
173
12,700
Jan-08
70,267
237
3,469
137
2,808
139
8,953
169
15,540
BrokerMetrics®
2 of 2 Information not guaranteed. © 2010 - 2011 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).
02/14/10
The Melcher Agency
Market Dynamics Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) 2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10
KEY INFORMATION Jan-08
Jan-10
Change
Percent Change
MSI
17
6
-11
-65.4
DOM
137
84
-53
-38.9
MLS: ARMLS
Period:
Property Types:
Residential: (Single Family-Detached, Patio Home, Townhouse, Apartment, Loft, Other)
All MLS:
Arizona Regional MLS
BrokerMetrics®
2 Years (Monthly)
Price:
All
Construction Type:
All
Bedrooms:
All
Bathrooms:
All
Lot Size: All Sq Ft:
1 of 2 Information not guaranteed. © 2010 - 2011 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).
All
02/14/10
The Melcher Agency
Market Dynamics Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) 2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10 Time Period
Months Supply of Inventory
NAR MSI
# Properties For Sale Last Day of Month
# Properties Under Contract
Under Contract Average DOM
# Properties Sold
Jan-10
5.8
7.1
40,178
6,954
84
5,638
Dec-09
6.7
5.3
39,183
5,812
86
7,438
Nov-09
6.5
5.3
38,746
6,003
86
7,276
Oct-09
5.1
4.8
37,928
7,473
85
7,859
Sep-09
4.6
4.8
36,653
7,887
87
7,641
Aug-09
4.5
4.7
36,315
8,153
89
7,761
Jul-09
4.5
4.1
36,388
8,094
95
8,834
Jun-09
4.3
4.1
37,006
8,707
107
9,066
May-09
4.3
4.3
38,580
8,877
123
9,034
Apr-09
4.0
5.1
42,547
10,540
122
8,351
Mar-09
5.1
6.5
48,316
9,506
124
7,426
Feb-09
7.0
9.6
50,841
7,217
127
5,319
Jan-09
8.3
11.4
52,493
6,299
125
4,594
Dec-08
10.7
10.0
54,162
5,055
115
5,409
Nov-08
12.3
13.0
55,314
4,490
107
4,267
Oct-08
10.9
10.4
54,753
5,015
108
5,258
Sep-08
9.9
8.9
53,078
5,380
115
5,977
Aug-08
9.5
9.5
52,426
5,539
106
5,491
Jul-08
7.7
8.9
52,393
6,845
119
5,856
Jun-08
8.9
9.8
54,843
6,137
125
5,607
May-08
10.0
10.5
56,895
5,688
128
5,438
Apr-08
10.7
12.6
58,540
5,454
131
4,638
Mar-08
12.9
14.3
59,160
4,570
133
4,133
Feb-08
15.2
18.0
58,810
3,865
134
3,276
Jan-08
16.7
20.6
57,845
3,469
137
2,808
BrokerMetrics®
2 of 2 Information not guaranteed. © 2010 - 2011 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).
02/14/10
The Melcher Agency
Market Dynamics Basic Absorption 2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10
KEY INFORMATION Jan-08
Jan-10
Change
Percent Change
3,469
6,954
3,485
100.5
New
15,540
12,789
-2,751
-17.7
Residual Inventory
43,348
29,779
-13,569
-31.3
Under Contract
MLS: ARMLS
Period:
Property Types:
Residential: (Single Family-Detached, Patio Home, Townhouse, Apartment, Loft, Other)
All MLS:
Arizona Regional MLS
BrokerMetrics®
2 Years (Monthly)
Price:
All
Construction Type:
All
Bedrooms:
All
Bathrooms:
All
Lot Size: All Sq Ft:
1 of 2 Information not guaranteed. © 2010 - 2011 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).
All
02/14/10
The Melcher Agency
Market Dynamics Basic Absorption 2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10 Time Period
# Properties Under Contract
# New Properties Listed
# Residual Inventory Properties
Under Contract / New %
Under Contract / Residual Inventory %
Jan-10
6,954
12,789
29,779
54.37
23.35
Dec-09
5,812
10,220
30,841
56.87
18.85
Nov-09
6,003
10,581
30,078
56.73
19.96
Oct-09
7,473
12,778
27,957
58.48
26.73
Sep-09
7,887
12,209
27,398
64.60
28.79
Aug-09
8,153
12,187
27,222
66.90
29.95
Jul-09
8,094
12,470
27,084
64.91
29.88
Jun-09
8,707
12,315
28,015
70.70
31.08
May-09
8,877
10,705
30,556
82.92
29.05
Apr-09
10,540
10,864
34,228
97.02
30.79
Mar-09
9,506
13,974
37,271
68.03
25.51
Feb-09
7,217
12,380
40,416
58.30
17.86
Jan-09
6,299
13,441
40,830
46.86
15.43
Dec-08
5,055
11,668
43,941
43.32
11.50
Nov-08
4,490
12,139
44,404
36.99
10.11
Oct-08
5,015
14,336
42,087
34.98
11.92
Sep-08
5,380
13,929
40,734
38.62
13.21
Aug-08
5,539
13,261
40,752
41.77
13.59
Jul-08
6,845
13,196
40,859
51.87
16.75
Jun-08
6,137
13,250
42,951
46.32
14.29
May-08
5,688
12,746
45,288
44.63
12.56
Apr-08
5,454
13,457
46,198
40.53
11.81
Mar-08
4,570
13,173
46,905
34.69
9.74
Feb-08
3,865
12,700
46,927
30.43
8.24
Jan-08
3,469
15,540
43,348
22.32
8.00
BrokerMetricsÂŽ
2 of 2 Information not guaranteed. Š 2010 - 2011 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).
02/14/10
MARKET CONDITION REPORT MARICOPA COUNTY FEBRUARY 2010 HISTORICAL INFORMATION PHOENIX AREA FEBRUARY 2010 .
PERCENT CLOSING CLOSINGS CLOSINGS CLOSINGS CLOSINGS PERCENT PRICE REO SHORT STANDARD SELLING MONTH CHANGE EVALUATED Jan‐09 $130,000 4,269 2,871 390 1,008 37% Feb‐09 $128,000 ‐$2,000 4,899 3,294 439 1,166 46% Mar‐09 $120,750 ‐$7,250 6,914 4,713 652 1,549 55% Apr‐09 $118,160 ‐$2,590 7,704 5,146 726 1,832 62% May‐09 $122,000 $3,840 8,275 5,321 863 2,091 66% Jun‐09 $130,000 $8,000 8,265 4,812 1,043 2,410 70% $$130,000 $$0 Jul‐09 7,979 4,323 1,183 2,473 69% Aug‐09 $131,000 $1,000 7,005 3,640 1,224 2,141 72% Sep‐09 $135,995 $4,995 6,856 3,318 1,239 2,299 69% Oct‐09 $135,000 ‐$995 7,009 3,120 1,314 2,575 69% Nov‐09 $136,000 $1,000 6,509 2,638 1,257 2,614 70% Dec‐09 $135,000 ‐$1,000 6,637 2,825 1,502 2,310 69% Jan‐10 $130,000 ‐$5,000 5,071 2,138 1,177 1,756 59% TOTALS $0 87,392 48,159 13,009 26,224 AVERAGE $0 6,722 55% 15% 30% 62% Historical Information for Jan‐10 (reviewed and adjusted 2/2010) is a close estimate only‐subject to future revision
OVERALL MARKET (ORDERED ON MARKET SPEED) AREA Avondale Queen Creek Goodyear Glendale Phoenix Surprise Chandler Peoria Anthem Mesa Gilbert Tempe Sun City Scottsdale Fountain Hills TOTALS
ON MARKET (SUPPLY)
CLOSED MONTH (DEMAND)
FAIL MONTH
IN ESCROW
PERCENT SELLING
TIME TO SELL (DAYS)
MONTHS SUPPLY
MARKET SPEED
MEDIAN ASK PRICE
MEDIAN IN ESCROW PRICE
MEDIAN CLOSE PRICE
575 1,001 758 1,362 6,878 1,451 1,545 1,312 240 2,720 1,812 521 503 3,470 414 24,562
150 254 166 295 1,397 292 278 231 42 463 305 80 70 340 36 4,401
47 103 71 125 755 139 144 111 27 254 152 62 44 346 47 2,427
233 399 237 521 2,216 520 410 442 111 786 602 119 113 521 62 7,292
76% 71% 70% 70% 65% 68% 66% 68% 61% 65% 67% 56% 61% 50% 44% 64%
68 80 85 66 79 78 92 89 86 90 95 81 102 157 162 89
3.8 3.9 4.6 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.9 6.5 7.2 10.2 11.5 5.6
51 50 43 43 40 40 35 35 35 34 33 30 27 19 17 35
$110 $130 $170 $130 $150 $149 $215 $190 $215 $ $160 $200 $200 $145 $644 $499 $180
$102 $120 $162 $112 $106 $135 $187 $163 $175 $ $135 $187 $176 $130 $400 $382 $135
$108 $113 $145 $110 $96 $135 $190 $160 $205 $ $131 $185 $174 $125 $400 $330 $131
MARKET SPEED measures the rate of conversion of listings to closings. The higher this number, the faster the market is converting. The area with the highest speed is the "quickest" market and is the most desirable to buyers. (Red font in Median In Escrow Price column signals expected price weakness.) Market Speed has declined from 61 in July 2009, to 51 in September, to the current 35. Overall, the gradual slowing trend continues. Consequently, Months Supply has increased and Percent Selling declined. Net inventory in escrow has begun to rise signaling the slowing trend will begin to reverse and closings will gradually increase. Note the price history in Historical Information. Median Price is gyrating between $118K in April of 2009 to $136K in November. Clearly, this is a market in search of bottom and that bottom occurred in April of 2009 at $118K median. Since then, the schedule has risen into the mid $130's. All other things being equal, and given that In Escrow Price is on the rise, look for stabilization with gradual positive trending of the price schedule. For those buyers awaiting bottom, their time to act is as soon as possible. Note the report is sorted on Market Speed. This will place those areas most popular with buyers at the top of the report.
Information believed accurate but not guaranteed. Estimates based on generally accepted statistical sampling practices.
MARICOPA COUNTY MARKET CONDITION REPORT REO ONLY (SORTED ON MARKET SPEED)
FEBRUARY 2010
AREA Anthem Avondale Goodyear Queen Creek Surprise Peoria Phoenix Glendale Chandler Mesa Gilbert Tempe Sun City Scottsdale Fountain Hills TOTALS
FEBRUARY 2010 MEDIAN ASK PRICE
MEDIAN IN ESCROW PRICE
MEDIAN CLOSE PRICE
$209 $110 $150 $150 $131 $150 $99 $112 $181 $133 $175 $160 $110 $357 $450 $149
$164 $95 $139 $132 $125 $140 $91 $101 $159 $123 $165 $150 $134 $300 $538 $140
$160 $104 $135 $113 $125 $140 $75 $95 $158 $110 $169 $150 $127 $353 $329 $115
MARKET SPEED
MEDIAN ASK PRICE
MEDIAN IN ESCROW PRICE
MEDIAN CLOSE PRICE
62 52 47 43 42 41 40 39 38 38 34 29 22 21 19 40
$115 $140 $150 $125 $185 $165 $175 $120 $135 $385 $130 $344 $104 $120 $187 $144
$115 $175 $165 $110 $185 $165 $175 $120 $135 $360 $142 $269 $104 $125 $175 $140
$105 $129 $155 $110 $186 $160 $175 $107 $133 $335 $125 $295 $102 $127 $185 $139
MARKET SPEED
MEDIAN ASK PRICE
MEDIAN IN ESCROW PRICE
MEDIAN CLOSE PRICE
54 50 39 39 37 34 33 32 28 27 26 24 23 14 12 27
$165 $139 $272 $181 $220 $259 $234 $265 $235 $195 $255 $155 $250 $799 $575 $290
$120 $122 $234 $121 $183 $224 $199 $215 $127 $145 $200 $129 $217 $475 $435 $170
$122 $125 $255 $139 $165 $213 $204 $218 $137 $155 $200 $125 $218 $475 $348 $180
PERCENT SELLING
TIME TO SELL (DAYS)
MONTHS SUPPLY
MARKET SPEED
100% 95% 93% 92% 92% 94% 90% 93% 91% 90% 95% 87% 89% 84% 83% 91%
45 43 59 56 44 62 57 50 71 74 66 64 62 144 137 63
1.0 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 21 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.7 1.88
191 143 127 124 115 115 109 106 96 94 91 81 76 74 73 105
ON MARKET (SUPPLY)
CLOSED MONTH (DEMAND)
FAIL MONTH
IN ESCROW
11 109 111 127 195 164 1,224 272 198 385 199 68 41 238 33 3,375
11 79 72 80 114 96 677 146 97 184 92 28 16 89 12 1,792
0 4 6 7 10 6 75 11 10 20 5 4 2 17 3 178
23 94 74 99 145 151 767 212 122 264 155 37 24 97 12 2,276
ON MARKET (SUPPLY)
CLOSED MONTH (DEMAND)
FAIL MONTH
IN ESCROW
PERCENT SELLING
TIME TO SELL (DAYS)
MONTHS SUPPLY
584 343 158 2,712 712 593 923 662 1,052 711 70 76 330 713 140 9,779
185 90 38 587 151 124 188 130 203 137 12 11 36 77 14 1,983
56 30 15 281 62 57 79 67 101 62 8 6 28 66 16 933
159 88 30 747 137 164 256 160 240 188 20 18 86 216 55 2,564
77% 75% 72% 68% 71% 68% 70% 66% 67% 69% 61% 66% 56% 54% 47% 68%
135 128 114 129 148 129 151 121 125 181 224 264 125 139 160 137
3.2 3.8 4.2 4.6 4.7 48 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.8 6.9 9.2 93 9.3 10.2 4.9
ON MARKET (SUPPLY)
CLOSED MONTH (DEMAND)
FAIL MONTH
IN ESCROW
PERCENT SELLING
TIME TO SELL (DAYS)
MONTHS SUPPLY
291 138 89 430 544 690 306 637 2,948 1 285 1,285 556 392 295 2,523 305 11,429
80 35 18 84 102 118 51 105 424 178 72 48 34 181 18 1,547
40 15 12 48 63 69 35 72 401 133 47 35 44 267 39 1,319
142 54 33 150 159 192 77 151 707 283 127 69 52 236 32 2,464
67% 70% 60% 64% 62% 63% 59% 59% 51% 57% 60% 58% 44% 40% 32% 54%
41 67 53 50 70 73 84 70 79 86 91 100 75 154 148 85
3.6 3.9 3 9 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.9 6.0 6.1 7.0 72 7.2 7.7 8.1 8.7 14.0 16.7 7.4
SHORT SALE ONLY (SORTED ON MARKET SPEED) AREA Queen Creek Goodyear Tempe Phoenix Chandler Peoria Gilbert Glendale Mesa Scottsdale Sun City Fountain Hills Avondale Surprise Anthem TOTALS
STANDARD ONLY (SORTED ON MARKET SPEED) AREA Queen Creek Avondale Anthem Glendale Surprise Gilbert Goodyear Chandler Phoenix Mesa Peoria Sun City Tempe Scottsdale Fountain Hills TOTALS
Information believed accurate but not guaranteed. Estimates based on generally accepted statistical sampling practices.
Reasons Why Short Sales Closings Will Continue To Go Up In 2010 Do you work short sales? If you don’t consider this: In 2009, there were 13,000 short sales closings in Greater Phoenix. In 2010, I estimate there will be between 18,000 to 20,000 short sale closings. This paper briefly touches on why there will be more short sale closings in 2010 and has statistics on short sale closings in 2009. • Many home are underwater. The market value is less than what is owed. The median home value in December had declined 53% from its peak in June 2006 • In 2010, home values may go up slightly in some areas, they will be flat in most areas, and may decline in other areas. • The economy. • Adjustable rate mortgage resetting at higher interest rates. • The lender usually gets more per square foot for a short sale over a lender owned sale (as seen in Table 2 below). • The Time Value of Money: If the lender believes a property is in a declining market, they are more likely to consider a short sale since will probably get more money today through a short sale than tomorrow through a lender-owned sale.
Residential Focus By Fletcher Wilcox, Vice President of Business Development, Grand Canyon Title Agency, Inc. Fwilcox@GCTA.Com 602-648-1230
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• Sellers are encouraged to complete a Short Sale before December 31, 2012, which is the last day of the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act and Debt Cancellation.
• The Federal Government is encouraging shorts sales through their Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives Program (HAFA.) The program does not take effect until April 5, 2010, but servicers may implement it before then if they meet certain requirements. The program sunsets on December 31, 2012. • HAFA is intended to speed up short sale process. Some criteria of the program are: The property is the borrower’s principal residence. The mortgage loan is a first lien mortgage originated on or before January 1, 2009. The mortgage is delinquent or default is reasonably foreseeable. The current unpaid balance is equal to or less than $729,740 (the maximum unpaid balance limit may be $417,000 in Maricopa County. This has not yet been clarified). o The borrower’s total monthly mortgage payment exceeds 31 percent of the borrower’s gross income. o Provides financial incentives: $1,500 for borrower relocation assistance; $1,000 for servicers to cover administrative and processing costs; and up to $1,000 for investors for allowing a total of up to $3,000 in short sale proceeds to be distributed to subordinate lien holders.
o o o o
Residential Focus By Fletcher Wilcox, Vice President of Business Development, Grand Canyon Title Agency, Inc. Fwilcox@GCTA.Com 602-648-1230
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Table 1 December 2009 What Residential Property Types Are Buyers Buying? Residential Sales by All Eight ARMLS Residential Categories Category
Total Sales
Short Sales
Lender Owned
Other
Single Family Detached
No. 6,642
No. % 1,586 24%
No. % 2,812 42%
No. 2,244
% 34%
Totals (total may be 99%-101% due to rounding) 100%
Townhouse
434
93
21%
217
50%
124
29%
100%
Apartment Style/Flat
379
75
20%
188
50%
116
31%
101%
Patio
108
15
14%
28
26%
65
60%
100%
Manufactured/Mobile Housing Gemini/Twin Home
111
4
4%
43
39%
64
58%
101%
34
3
9%
12
35%
19
56%
100%
Loft
12
4
33%
3
25%
5
42%
100%
Modular / Pre-Fab
4
0
0%
3
75%
1
25%
100%
Totals
7,724
1,780 23%
2,638
34%
100%
3,306 43%
Residential Focus By Fletcher Wilcox, Vice President of Business Development, Grand Canyon Title Agency, Inc. Fwilcox@GCTA.Com 602-648-1230
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Table 3 Number of Lender-Owned Sales and Short Sales All Eight ARMLS Residential Categories Included Number of Sales
Jan.
Feb.
March April May
June July
Lender Owned Sales 3,077 3,566 5,053 5,564 5,835 5,351 Short Sales 419 471 701 783 979 1,152 *Other 1,246 1,439 1,874 2,205 2,470 2,847 Total 4,742 5,476 7,628 8,552 9,284 9,350
4,847 1,351 2,898 9,096
Aug. Sep. Oct.
Nov. Dec.
4,067 1,444 2,527 8,038
3,048 1,399 2,993 7,440
3,792 1,454 2,669 7,915
3,617 1,557 2,969 8,143
3,306 1,780 2,638 7,724
Table 4 Percentage of Lender-Owned Sales and Short Sales All Eight ARMLS Residential Categories Included Percentage of Sales
Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug.
Lender Owned Sales 65% 65% 66% 65% 63% 57% 53% Short Sales 9% 9% 9% 9% 11% 12% 15% *Other 26% 26% 25% 26% 27% 30% 32% 100% 100% 100% 100% 101% 99% 100%
51% 18% 31% 100%
Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. 48% 18% 34% 100%
44% 19% 37% 100%
41% 19% 40% 100%
43% 23% (Over 20%) 34% 100%
Total Distressed Sales 74% 74% 75% 74% 74% 69% 68% 69% 66% 63% 60% 66% *Other is categorized as neither a lender owned sale or short sale
Residential Focus By Fletcher Wilcox, Vice President of Business Development, Grand Canyon Title Agency, Inc. Fwilcox@GCTA.Com 602-648-1230
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Table 5 Supply ARMLS Listings by Lender-Owned, Short Sales and Other All ARMLS Residential Categories Included Listings Lender-Owned Short Sale * Other Active Listings
July 10 4,805 7,233 19,951 31,989
Aug 22
Sep 14
15% 4,540 14% 23% 7,477 24% 62% 19,373 62% 100% 31,390 100%
4,350 14% 7,642 24% 19,233 62% 31,225 100%
Sep 26
Oct 26
Nov 5
4,241 14% 4,228 13% 4,587 14% 7,782 25% 8,120 25% 8,445 25% 19,325 62% 19,838 62% 20,190 61% 31,348 101% 32,186 100% 33,222 100%
Nov 24
Jan 9
4,716 14% 8,470 25% 20,438 61% 33,624 100%
5,450 16% 8,728 26% 19,932 58% 34,110 100%
*Other is categorized as neither a lender owned sale or short sale
Table 6 Estimated Months of Supply on November 24 January 9, 2009 Lender-Owned Listings 5,450 listings divided by 3,306 sales in December = 1.7 month supply January 9, 2009 Short Sale Listings 8,728 listings divided by 1,780 sales in December = 4.9 month supply January 9, 2009 Other Listings 19,932 listings divided by 2,638 sales in December = 7.6 month supply
Residential Focus By Fletcher Wilcox, Vice President of Business Development, Grand Canyon Title Agency, Inc. Fwilcox@GCTA.Com 602-648-1230
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This report is for real estate agents only. The data from this report is from ARMLS. This report is for the real estate agent. Residential Focus does not guarantee the accuracy of the data in this report. Some numbers will be adjusted. Report may not reflect all real estate activity. Information should be verified. This article is of a general nature, and is not intended as real estate advice, lending advice or legal advice. Please consult your broker, your lender and your own independent legal counsel. The information in this report may not be the opinion of Grand Canyon Title Agency, Inc.
Residential Focus By Fletcher Wilcox, Vice President of Business Development, Grand Canyon Title Agency, Inc. Fwilcox@GCTA.Com 602-648-1230
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