MARKET CONDITION REPORT
MARICOPA COUNTY HISTORICAL INFORMATION PHOENIX AREA OCTOBER 2009 .
MONTH Sep‐08 Oct‐08 Nov‐08 Dec‐08 Jan‐09 Feb‐09 M 09 Mar‐09 Apr‐09 May‐09 Jun‐09 Jul‐09 Aug‐09 Sep‐09
CLOSING PRICE $175,000 $170,000 $156,000 $146,000 $130,300 $127,950 $121 000 $121,000 $119,900 $124,450 $134,550 $130,000 $130,000 $135,000 TOTALS AVERAGE
CLOSINGS CHANGE EVALUATED 4,816 ‐$5,000 4,191 ‐$14,000 3,446 ‐$10,000 4,316 ‐$15,700 3,728 ‐$2,350 4,222 $6 950 5 944 ‐$6,950 5,944 ‐$1,100 6,623 $4,550 7,227 $10,100 7,056 ‐$4,550 7,952 $0 7,018 $5,000 6,969 $40 000 73 508 ‐$40,000 73,508 ‐$3,333 5,654
CLOSINGS REO 1,950 1,803 1,626 2,405 2,505 2,858 44,067 067 4,388 4,612 3,956 4,290 3,577 3,322 41 359 41,359 56%
CLOSINGS SHORT 62 119 301 375 346 390 595 667 804 1,054 1,240 1,371 1,375 88,699 699 12%
CLOSINGS PERCENT PERCENT STANDARD SELLING 2,804 45% 2,269 43% 1,519 40% 1,536 43% 877 37% 974 46% 11,282 282 55% 1,568 62% 1,811 66% 2,046 70% 2,422 69% 2,070 72% 2,272 72% 23 450 23,450 32% 55%
OVERALL MARKET AREA Anthem Avondale Chandler Fountain Hills Gilbert Glendale Goodyear Mesa Peoria Phoenix Queen Creek Scottsdale Sun City Surprise Tempe TOTALS
ON MARKET (SUPPLY)
CLOSED MONTH (DEMAND)
FAIL MONTH
IN ESCROW
PERCENT SELLING
TIME TO SELL (DAYS)
MONTHS SUPPLY
MARKET SPEED
218 496 1,324 359 1,613 1,138 664 2,162 1,052 5,958 1,307 3,102 395 1,189 455 21,432
63 212 351 30 396 420 188 555 287 1,729 403 344 60 351 110 5,502
22 39 129 38 138 120 56 212 89 672 114 303 30 83 49 2,092
106 324 515 54 629 654 300 915 465 2,642 647 512 78 552 117 8,510
74% 85% 73% 45% 74% 78% 77% 72% 76% 72% 78% 53% 67% 81% 69% 72%
90 77 93 163 91 76 85 92 100 82 81 163 127 84 83 91
3.4 2.3 2 3 3.8 11.8 4.1 2.7 3.5 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.2 9.0 6.6 3.4 4.1 3.9
57 84 52 17 48 73 56 51 54 57 61 22 30 58 48 51
MEDIAN PRICE MEDIAN ASK PRICE IN ESCROW
$230 $114 $249 $597 $220 $139 $190 $175 $204 $168 $129 $699 $150 $150 $225 $200
$179 $110 $198 $405 $190 $120 $138 $135 $165 $101 $117 $400 $140 $132 $180 $131
MEDIAN CLOSE PRICE
$205 $109 $198 $375 $195 $120 $147 $133 $170 $95 $119 $397 $134 $135 $196 $135
MARKET SPEED measures the rate of conversion of listings to closings. The higher this number, the faster the market is converting. The area with the highest speed is the "quickest" market area or segment and is the most desirable to buyers.
Overall, the market is "tight." However, most of the supply/demand constriction is centered in the REO segment. Note the elevated nature of Months Supply and Market Speed of REO versus Short and Standard sales. See that REO demand is 102% of REO supply on a monthly basis. Short and Standard transactions now represent about 50% of market action and are moving at a relatively slow and languid pace with a weakening price schedule. Expect transaction levels to remain at or near the current level with more of a tendency to decline than increase. REO median price appears to be stabilizing while Shorts and Standards will continue to exhibit weakness, more so for Standards. Note the time period from September to April in the Historical Information table. See that solid and meaningful price declines have been replaced by 3 gaining months, 1 losing month, and 1 no change month. No big price changes should be expected in the overall market. These big shifts are being replaced by relatively small changes and adjustments which generally display a slight h ll k Th bi hif b i l db l i l ll h d dj hi h ll di l li h negative propensity from month to month.
Information believed accurate but not guaranteed. Estimates based on generally accepted statistical sampling practices.
MARKET CONDITION REPORT
October 2009
REO ONLY AREA Anthem Avondale Chandler Fountain Hills Gilbert Glendale Goodyear Mesa Peoria Phoenix Q Queen Creek Scottsdale Sun City Surprise Tempe TOTALS
ON MARKET (SUPPLY)
CLOSED MONTH (DEMAND)
FAIL MONTH
IN ESCROW
PERCENT SELLING
TIME TO SELL (DAYS)
MONTHS SUPPLY
MARKET SPEED
7 81 154 26 124 210 99 311 143 911 135 208 34 107 46 2,596
19 121 125 10 130 238 92 273 139 1,016 179 105 17 166 31 2,662
0 4 9 1 6 11 5 23 6 79 10 14 3 8 0 177
23 160 148 11 181 279 117 336 154 1,083 210 111 18 213 39 3,083
100% 97% 94% 95% 96% 96% 95% 92% 96% 93% 95% 88% 87% 95% 100% 94%
41 57 69 87 63 63 62 69 66 66 52 102 89 53 64 65
.4 .7 12 1.2 2.6 1.0 .9 1.1 1.1 1.0 .9 .8 2.0 2.0 .6 1.5 .98
543 294 160 77 206 223 184 173 191 220 261 100 97 307 133 202
ON MARKET (SUPPLY)
CLOSED MONTH (DEMAND)
FAIL MONTH
IN ESCROW
PERCENT SELLING
TIME TO SELL (DAYS)
MONTHS SUPPLY
MARKET SPEED
136 304 582 67 853 543 311 864 507 2,425 810 645 66 664 131 8,908
28 44 160 11 213 128 81 210 123 516 213 129 14 83 25 1,978
9 26 41 8 62 48 22 72 37 233 60 60 6 38 10 732
52 81 178 15 241 183 87 280 172 766 196 167 14 191 31 2,654
75% 63% 80% 58% 77% 73% 79% 74% 77% 69% 78% 68% 70% 68% 71% 73%
133 121 150 196 155 144 133 160 170 143 142 254 155 147 152 155
4.9 6.9 3.6 6.1 4.0 4.2 3.8 41 4.1 4.1 4.7 3.8 5.0 4.7 8.0 5.2 4.5
40 29 54 32 49 46 51 48 48 42 52 39 42 25 38 44
MEDIAN PRICE MEDIAN ASK PRICE IN ESCROW
$239 $100 $199 $488 $185 $103 $160 $140 $160 $90 $ $142 $418 $114 $143 $170 $152
$160 $101 $156 $310 $170 $106 $130 $113 $132 $86 $ $113 $338 $147 $128 $170 $120
MEDIAN CLOSE PRICE
$190 $102 $165 $328 $179 $97 $126 $110 $138 $72 $ $110 $325 $135 $125 $150 $113
SHORT SALE ONLY AREA Anthem Avondale Chandler Fountain Hills Gilbert Glendale Goodyear Mesa Peoria Phoenix Queen Creek Scottsdale Sun City Surprise Tempe TOTALS
MEDIAN MEDIAN PRICE ASK PRICE IN ESCROW
$185 $105 $200 $350 $183 $125 $145 $144 $175 $129 $110 $424 $144 $125 $175 $165
$162 $110 $207 $410 $180 $125 $145 $140 $170 $115 $109 $360 $138 $125 $150 $154
MEDIAN CLOSE PRICE
$185 $103 $205 $526 $177 $127 $145 $135 $170 $125 $110 $400 $129 $125 $176 $161
STANDARD ONLY AREA Anthem Avondale Chandler Fountain Hills Fountain Hills Gilbert Glendale Goodyear Mesa Peoria Phoenix Queen Creek Scottsdale Sun City Surprise Tempe TOTALS
ON MARKET (SUPPLY)
CLOSED MONTH (DEMAND)
FAIL MONTH
IN ESCROW
PERCENT SELLING
TIME TO SELL (DAYS)
MONTHS SUPPLY
MARKET SPEED
75 111 591 266 636 387 255 990 403 2,627 363 2,249 295 418 278 9,944
16 48 145 15 158 118 55 177 86 453 117 175 36 103 66 1,768
13 9 80 29 69 61 29 117 47 360 44 229 21 37 39 1,185
31 83 189 28 207 192 96 300 140 796 241 234 46 150 47 2,780
56% 84% 65% 34% 70% 66% 65% 60% 65% 56% 73% 43% 63% 74% 63% 60%
74 91 82 202 69 64 87 87 103 83 67 166 140 85 79 91
4.6 2.3 4.1 18 1 18.1 4.0 3.3 4.7 5.6 4.7 5.8 3.1 12.9 8.2 4.1 4.2 5.6
43 85 48 11 49 60 42 35 42 34 64 15 24 49 47 35
MEDIAN PRICE MEDIAN ASK PRICE IN ESCROW
$325 $150 $300 $699 $300 $220 $264 $227 $298 $275 $191 $850 $160 $237 $280 $404
$220 $128 $220 $410 $218 $130 $149 $154 $179 $125 $125 $500 $134 $165 $230 $185
Information believed accurate but not guaranteed. Estimates based on generally accepted statistical sampling practices.
MEDIAN CLOSE PRICE
$272 $130 $234 $375 $225 $155 $178 $168 $210 $172 $130 $450 $140 $164 $230 $210
The Melcher Agency
Market Dynamics Supply & Demand - # Units (FS, UC, Sold) 2 Years (Monthly) 09/01/07 - 09/30/09
KEY INFORMATION Sep-07
Sep-09
# Units Change
For Sale
71,505
48,350
-23,155
-32.4
Under Contract
3,072
7,729
4,657
151.6
Sold
3,260
7,827
4,567
140.1
MLS: ARMLS
Period:
Property Types:
Residential: (Single Family-Detached, Patio Home, Townhouse, Apartment, Loft)
All MLS:
Arizona Regional MLS
BrokerMetrics®
2 Years (Monthly)
Price:
All
Percent Change
Construction Type:
All
Bedrooms:
All
Bathrooms:
All
Lot Size: All Sq Ft:
1 of 2 Information not guaranteed. © 2009-2010 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).
All
10/06/09
The Melcher Agency
Market Dynamics Supply & Demand - # Units (FS, UC, Sold) 2 Years (Monthly) 09/01/07 - 09/30/09
Time Period
FOR SALE # Properties Average DOM
UNDER CONTRACT # Properties Average DOM
SOLD # Properties Average DOM
EXPIRED # Properties Average DOM
NEW LISTINGS # Properties
Sep-09
48,350
119
7,729
57
7,827
62
4,176
159
12,012
Aug-09
48,497
119
8,080
60
7,832
65
4,080
158
12,190
Jul-09
49,558
122
8,302
63
8,874
73
4,932
172
12,480
Jun-09
52,053
125
9,833
75
9,116
85
5,142
172
12,316
May-09
54,900
129
9,414
83
9,088
81
5,749
163
10,715
Apr-09
60,772
125
10,525
81
8,358
83
6,062
157
10,865
Mar-09
66,108
121
9,235
83
7,428
85
6,966
150
13,973
Feb-09
65,927
121
6,984
84
5,317
82
6,808
144
12,381
Jan-09
68,073
124
5,723
81
4,602
73
8,804
167
13,441
Dec-08
67,280
124
4,888
73
5,406
72
7,760
158
11,668
Nov-08
67,034
120
4,338
69
4,265
69
7,084
151
12,141
Oct-08
67,473
116
4,942
68
5,263
73
7,638
148
14,336
Sep-08
66,306
117
5,275
73
5,979
73
7,894
152
13,929
Aug-08
65,545
118
5,482
76
5,494
81
7,686
153
13,261
Jul-08
67,979
118
6,897
85
5,798
91
8,798
150
13,196
Jun-08
70,054
120
6,106
94
5,573
99
9,165
159
13,250
May-08
71,193
120
5,688
96
5,444
96
8,701
152
12,746
Apr-08
72,545
118
5,476
97
4,665
103
8,622
151
13,457
Mar-08
71,910
119
4,573
101
4,131
99
8,249
154
13,173
Feb-08
70,477
117
3,871
99
3,288
103
7,869
148
12,700
Jan-08
70,170
117
3,441
105
2,780
108
8,952
144
15,540
Dec-07
67,840
124
2,779
110
3,254
103
10,431
162
8,706
Nov-07
70,964
115
3,103
98
3,193
95
8,727
140
11,284
Oct-07
73,026
110
3,368
97
3,312
97
9,978
140
13,834
Sep-07
71,505
109
3,072
95
3,260
94
9,241
138
12,515
BrokerMetrics®
2 of 2 Information not guaranteed. © 2009-2010 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).
10/06/09
The Melcher Agency
Market Dynamics Basic Absorption 2 Years (Monthly) 09/01/07 - 09/30/09
KEY INFORMATION Sep-07
Sep-09
Change
Percent Change
151.6
3,072
7,729
4,657
New
12,515
12,012
-503
-4.0
Residual Inventory
47,355
27,460
-19,895
-42.0
Under Contract
MLS: ARMLS
Period:
Property Types:
Residential: (Single Family-Detached, Patio Home, Townhouse, Apartment, Loft)
All MLS:
Arizona Regional MLS
BrokerMetrics®
2 Years (Monthly)
Price:
All
Construction Type:
All
Bedrooms:
All
Bathrooms:
All
Lot Size: All Sq Ft:
1 of 2 Information not guaranteed. © 2009-2010 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).
All
10/06/09
The Melcher Agency
Market Dynamics Basic Absorption 2 Years (Monthly) 09/01/07 - 09/30/09 Time Period
# Properties Under Contract
# New Properties Listed
# Residual Inventory Properties
Under Contract / New %
Under Contract / Residual Inventory %
Sep-09
7,729
12,012
27,460
64.34
28.15
Aug-09
8,080
12,190
27,231
66.28
29.67
Jul-09
8,302
12,480
26,982
66.52
30.77
Jun-09
9,833
12,316
28,062
79.84
35.04
May-09
9,414
10,715
31,495
87.86
29.89
Apr-09
10,525
10,865
35,572
96.87
29.59
Mar-09
9,235
13,973
38,474
66.09
24.00
Feb-09
6,984
12,381
41,478
56.41
16.84
Jan-09
5,723
13,441
41,673
42.58
13.73
Dec-08
4,888
11,668
44,325
41.89
11.03
Nov-08
4,338
12,141
44,640
35.73
9.72
Oct-08
4,942
14,336
42,208
34.47
11.71
Sep-08
5,275
13,929
40,778
37.87
12.94
Aug-08
5,482
13,261
40,702
41.34
13.47
Jul-08
6,897
13,196
40,763
52.27
16.92
Jun-08
6,106
13,250
42,891
46.08
14.24
May-08
5,688
12,746
45,201
44.63
12.58
Apr-08
5,476
13,457
46,108
40.69
11.88
Mar-08
4,573
13,173
46,836
34.71
9.76
Feb-08
3,871
12,700
46,855
30.48
8.26
Jan-08
3,441
15,540
43,282
22.14
7.95
Dec-07
2,779
8,706
46,369
31.92
5.99
Nov-07
3,103
11,284
48,482
27.50
6.40
Oct-07
3,368
13,834
46,650
24.35
7.22
Sep-07
3,072
12,515
47,355
24.55
6.49
BrokerMetricsÂŽ
2 of 2 Information not guaranteed. Š 2009-2010 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).
10/06/09
The Melcher Agency
Market Dynamics Median Price (FS, UC, Sold) 2 Years (Monthly) 09/01/07 - 09/30/09
KEY INFORMATION Sep-07
Sep-09
For Sale
274,999
Under Contract
250,000
Sold
243,000
Percent Change
175,000
-99,999
-36.4
125,000
-125,000
-50.0
130,000
-113,000
-46.5
MLS: ARMLS
Period:
Property Types:
Residential: (Single Family-Detached, Patio Home, Townhouse, Apartment, Loft)
All MLS:
Arizona Regional MLS
BrokerMetrics®
2 Years (Monthly)
Median Price Change
Price:
All
Construction Type:
All
Bedrooms:
All
Bathrooms:
All
Lot Size: All Sq Ft:
1 of 2 Information not guaranteed. © 2009-2010 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).
All
10/06/09
The Melcher Agency
Market Dynamics Median Price (FS, UC, Sold) 2 Years (Monthly) 09/01/07 - 09/30/09
Time Period
FOR SALE Median $ # Properties
UNDER CONTRACT Median $ # Properties
SOLD Median $ # Properties
EXPIRED Median $ # Properties
NEW LISTINGS Median $ # Properties
Sep-09
175,000
48,350
125,000
7,729
130,000
7,827
199,000
4,176
149,900
12,012
Aug-09
175,000
48,497
128,900
8,080
127,150
7,832
199,950
4,080
141,250
12,190
Jul-09
177,000
49,558
127,500
8,302
127,000
8,874
209,900
4,932
140,000
12,480
Jun-09
179,700
52,053
129,900
9,833
126,000
9,116
215,000
5,142
140,000
12,316
May-09
180,000
54,900
127,900
9,414
120,000
9,088
219,990
5,749
145,000
10,715
Apr-09
178,500
60,772
120,990
10,525
115,995
8,358
199,900
6,062
149,000
10,865
Mar-09
174,000
66,108
120,000
9,235
120,000
7,428
181,950
6,966
139,900
13,973
Feb-09
174,900
65,927
122,900
6,984
125,000
5,317
179,000
6,808
149,900
12,381
Jan-09
179,000
68,073
129,900
5,723
130,000
4,602
199,900
8,804
160,000
13,441
Dec-08
179,900
67,280
137,600
4,888
144,000
5,406
199,900
7,760
138,900
11,668
Nov-08
189,840
67,034
147,500
4,338
151,900
4,265
210,000
7,084
155,900
12,141
Oct-08
195,500
67,473
152,250
4,942
165,000
5,263
219,000
7,638
161,900
14,336
Sep-08
200,000
66,306
167,000
5,275
172,500
5,979
225,000
7,894
169,900
13,929
Aug-08
212,900
65,545
175,000
5,482
186,000
5,494
232,000
7,686
175,000
13,261
Jul-08
220,000
67,979
189,000
6,897
192,700
5,798
238,975
8,798
181,496
13,196
Jun-08
229,900
70,054
199,900
6,106
204,900
5,573
249,800
9,165
192,080
13,250
May-08
239,000
71,193
210,000
5,688
210,000
5,444
252,000
8,701
205,000
12,746
Apr-08
244,900
72,545
219,900
5,476
217,000
4,665
249,900
8,622
219,900
13,457
Mar-08
249,900
71,910
224,707
4,573
218,000
4,131
260,000
8,249
224,900
13,173
Feb-08
250,000
70,477
226,677
3,871
220,000
3,288
260,000
7,869
232,000
12,700
Jan-08
255,218
70,170
229,900
3,441
227,350
2,780
260,000
8,952
239,999
15,540
Dec-07
260,000
67,840
239,900
2,779
235,000
3,254
269,900
10,431
239,000
8,706
Nov-07
265,000
70,964
249,900
3,103
241,943
3,193
274,900
8,727
245,000
11,284
Oct-07
269,900
73,026
249,600
3,368
240,000
3,312
279,900
9,978
250,000
13,834
Sep-07
274,999
71,505
250,000
3,072
243,000
3,260
284,000
9,241
255,000
12,515
BrokerMetrics®
2 of 2 Information not guaranteed. © 2009-2010 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).
10/06/09
The Melcher Agency
Market Dynamics Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) 2 Years (Monthly) 09/01/07 - 09/30/09
KEY INFORMATION Sep-07
Sep-09
Change
Percent Change
MSI
19.3
4.7
-14.6
-75.5
DOM
95
57
-38
-39.9
MLS: ARMLS
Period:
Property Types:
Residential: (Single Family-Detached, Patio Home, Townhouse, Apartment, Loft)
All MLS:
Arizona Regional MLS
BrokerMetrics®
2 Years (Monthly)
Price:
All
Construction Type:
All
Bedrooms:
All
Bathrooms:
All
Lot Size: All Sq Ft:
1 of 2 Information not guaranteed. © 2009-2010 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).
All
10/06/09
The Melcher Agency
Market Dynamics Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) 2 Years (Monthly) 09/01/07 - 09/30/09 Time Period
Months Supply of Inventory
NAR MSI
# Properties For Sale Last Day of Month
# Properties Under Contract
Under Contract Average DOM
# Properties Sold
Sep-09
4.7
4.7
36,448
7,729
57
7,827
Aug-09
4.5
4.6
36,338
8,080
60
7,832
Jul-09
4.4
4.1
36,324
8,302
63
8,874
Jun-09
3.8
4.1
37,078
9,833
75
9,116
May-09
4.2
4.4
39,737
9,414
83
9,088
Apr-09
4.2
5.3
44,185
10,525
81
8,358
Mar-09
5.4
6.7
49,907
9,235
83
7,428
Feb-09
7.5
9.8
52,135
6,984
84
5,317
Jan-09
9.4
11.6
53,546
5,723
81
4,602
Dec-08
11.2
10.1
54,632
4,888
73
5,406
Nov-08
12.8
13.0
55,612
4,338
69
4,265
Oct-08
11.1
10.4
54,893
4,942
68
5,263
Sep-08
10.1
8.9
53,137
5,275
73
5,979
Aug-08
9.6
9.5
52,377
5,482
76
5,494
Jul-08
7.6
9.0
52,284
6,897
85
5,798
Jun-08
9.0
9.8
54,783
6,106
94
5,573
May-08
10.0
10.4
56,804
5,688
96
5,444
Apr-08
10.7
12.5
58,447
5,476
97
4,665
Mar-08
12.9
14.3
59,088
4,573
101
4,131
Feb-08
15.2
17.9
58,737
3,871
99
3,288
Jan-08
16.8
20.8
57,777
3,441
105
2,780
Dec-07
19.7
16.8
54,630
2,779
110
3,254
Nov-07
19.1
18.5
59,134
3,103
98
3,193
Oct-07
17.7
18.0
59,680
3,368
97
3,312
Sep-07
19.3
18.2
59,192
3,072
95
3,260
BrokerMetrics®
2 of 2 Information not guaranteed. © 2009-2010 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).
10/06/09