Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” MENA Daily Fixed Income Report –26 November 2012 News Update GCC Bond & Sukuk: Best and worst Performers (25 November 2012) Kuwait's Global In Agreement on KWD50 Mln Bond RestructuringDaily Best daily Performers Worst daily Performers Kuwait's Global Investment House has reached an agreement with holders change 1.11% EMAAR 7 1/2 12/20/15 of it 50 million Kuwaiti dinar bond due next year to restructure the debt. GOBLT 0 05/15/12 0.39% NBADUH 5.01 05/22/42 Global, which is proposing to turn over equity to bank lenders as part of its DUGB 6.45 05/02/22 0.31% QATAR 5 1/4 01/20/20 wider $1.7 billion debt restructuring, reached the accord with bondholders DUGB 7 3/4 10/05/20 0.21% ADGB 5 1/2 04/08/14 last week, according to a letter posted on the Dubai bourse website. The JAFZSK 7 06/19/19 QATAR 9 3/4 06/15/30 0.18% DANAGS 7 1/2 10/31/12 letter did not reveal the terms of the restructuring. The KWD50 million Monthly Best monthly Performers Worst monthly Performers bond was issued in 2008 and was due next November. change GIC raises USD 500m five-year bond- Following on from previous successful issues this year in the Malaysian Ringgit and Swiss Franc markets, GIC successfully returned to the public US Dollar bond market on Wednesday 21st November with its first new issue there since 2005. This was the culmination of a highly focused execution strategy that enabled GIC to conduct a 3-day marketing campaign in the UAE, Singapore and London. The transaction achieved GIC 's target size of USD 500mn, with a 5-year maturity. Having initiated price guidance at a level of mid-tohigh 200 bps over US swaps and then revising guidance to 250-275 bps over US swaps, final pricing was at the tight end of this range at US swaps plus 250 bps. This led to a yield of 3.296% and a coupon of 3.250%. NBAD issues 500m Malaysian ringgit Sukuk- The National Bank of Abu Dhabi (NBAD) said, it has successfully issued a 500 million Malaysian ringgit (MYR) ($163.4 million or Dh600.1 million) Sukuk, its third issuance denominated in Malaysian ringgit (MYR) and the first ever issue of a subordinated debt by a non-Malaysian FI (Financial institutions) in Malaysia. The new Sukuk was issued for 15years at a coupon of 4.75 per cent following strong investor demand. Morocco says begins bond roadshow- Morocco confirmed on Friday that it had begun a roadshow to promote a dollar bond issue that will help control a budget deficit, as the North African country tries to manage the effects of the euro zone crisis and Arab Spring dissent. "It started yesterday," Nizar Baraka told. He declined to give more details about the maiden dollar bond, but media have said the roadshow began in Abu Dhabi. Initially estimated at $700 million-$1 billion, officials have said it could be more than $1 billion. Banks Shun Borrowing as Record-Low Rate Too High: Turkey Credit- Turkish lenders are shunning short- dated central bank cash offered at record low prices as rates for longer-maturity funding turn cheaper. Banks borrowed less than the central bank offered in one- week repurchase agreements at the 5.75 percent benchmark rate in five of the past 10 auctions, according to data on the central bank’s website. Lenders bid for almost twice the amount available in the one-month repo auction at 5.47 percent on Nov.3, an all-time low, the data show.
DANAGS 7 1/2 10/31/12 NBADUH 4.365 08/09/32 NBADUH 4.8 09/15/36 NBADUH 5.01 05/22/42 BHRAIN 5 1/2 03/31/20
20.45% 3.61% 2.26% 2.20% 1.57% YTD change 39.87% 35.41% 34.31% 33.06% 32.27%
Best YTD Performers NBADUH 4.8 09/15/36 INTPET 6 7/8 11/01/41 MBPSFN 11 1/4 11/15/15 NAKHL 10 08/25/16 TAQAUH 6 1/2 10/27/36
GOBLT 0 05/15/12 BHRAIN 6.273 11/22/18 QTELQD 3 3/8 10/14/16 ALDAR 10 3/4 05/27/14 DOLNRG 5.888 06/15/19 Worst YTD Performers DAEAVI 11 1/4 08/01/15 RAKS 8 07/22/14 DUGB 4 02/22/14 TAQAUH 6.6 08/01/13 ADGB 5 1/2 04/08/14
Daily change -0.29% -0.23% -0.22% -0.22% -0.21% Monthly change -17.27% -0.91% -0.82% -0.76% -0.70% YTD change -2.45% -2.33% -2.19% -2.18% -2.06%
Source: Bloomberg, Markaz Analysis
HSBC/NASDAQ Dubai Middle East US Dollar Sukuk /Bond Index Sukuk 23-Nov-12 31-Dec-11
Total Return 165.329 148.84
Duration Yield 5.006 4.99
Interbank Rates (%) SAIBOR KIBOR BHIBOR QATAR AEIBOR LIBOR EURIBOR JDIBOR TRLIBOR
3-Month 26/11/12 31/12/11 0.9737 0.5188 0.8125 0.5625 1.1917 0.8500 1.2000 0.4300 1.3000 0.9750 0.3115 0.2953 0.1960 0.9643 5.0130 3.8410 6.5596 11.2750
3.59 5.07
Spread 230.756 326.79
Clean Coupon Total Market Cap Price 6.301 105.543 5.36 1523.900 6.80 99.35 5.81 1157.44
Life
6-Month 26/11/12 31/12/11 1.0112 0.7800 1.0625 0.8125 1.5167 1.2583 1.3714 1.1000 1.4713 1.5200 0.5270 0.5810 0.3810 1.2921 5.4470 4.2380 7.0702 11.316
1-Year 26/11/12 31/12/11 1.1287 1.0400 1.3125 1.3125 1.8900 1.9583 1.7071 2.1500 1.6312 1.9725 0.8610 1.1281 0.6070 1.9134 5.9967 5.2000 7.3767 11.3743
U.S. Treasuries 26 November 2012 3-Month 2-Year 3-Year 5-Year 7-Year 10-Year 30-Year
Current Yield (%) 0.10 0.27 0.36 0.67 1.03 1.67 2.80
1-Day ∆ (%) 0.000 0.010 0.023 0.050 0.017 -0.017 -0.022
Sovereign Ratings Moody’s S&P Fitch Abu Aa2 AA AA Dhabi Bahrain Baa1 BBB
BBB
Kuwait
Aa2 AA
AA
Oman
A1
NR
Qatar
Aa2 AA
NR
KSA
Aa3 AA-
AA-
UAE
Aa2 NR
NR
Egypt
B2
B
B+
Lebanon B1
B
B
Turkey
BB
BB+
Tunisia Baa3 BB
BBB-
Morocco Ba1 BBB- BBBJordan
Ba2
BB
NR
China
Aa3 AA-
A+
UK
Aaa AAA
AAA
US
Aaa AA+
AAA
USD 5-Year YTD CDS Change Abu 88.670 -30.9% Dhabi Dubai 244.917 -43.6% Bahrain 208.000 -45.8% Qatar
90.575 -28.5%
Saudi
77.330 -39.1%
Egypt
389.525 -39.2%
Lebanon 427.250 Turkey Iran
Currency KWD SAR BHD QAR OMR AED EGP JOD EUR/USD
USD 0.2822 3.7503 0.3770 3.6411 0.3849 3.6730 6.0879 0.7078 1.2743
1-Day ∆ 0.0006 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 (0.0006) 0.0001 (0.0023) 0.0012 0.0038
1 Year (%) -2.005% 0.003% 0.003% 0.014% 0.018% 1.926% -1.506% 0.085% -3.154%
Ba1
A
9.2%
142.160 -50.5% 33.730 -12.9%
Morocco 245.000 -8.9% China
60.665 -58.5%
France
84.805 -61.6%
Germany 30.280 -70.2% Japan
72.340 -49.5%
UK
31.970 -67.3%
US
47.500
-3.0%
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