Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” MENA Daily Fixed Income Report –25 November 2012 News Update GCC Bond & Sukuk: Best and worst Performers (22 November 2012) Dana Gas Debt Deal Said to Include $100 Million Cash PayoutDaily Best daily Performers Worst daily Performers Dana Gas PJSC plans to pay bondholders about $100 million in cash as part change 0.66% DAEAVI 11 1/4 08/01/15 of the $920 million debt restructuring accord the United Arab Emirates DANAGS 7 1/2 10/31/12 0.41% QATDIA 3 1/2 07/21/15 company agreed this month. The cash would be paid to holders of the DUGB 6.45 05/02/22 0.40% DOLNRG 5.888 06/15/19 Shariah-compliant notes, or sukuk, once a lockup agreement between JAFZSK 7 06/19/19 0.40% QATAR 5 1/4 01/20/20 Dana Gas and its creditors is signed, likely later this month. Dana Gas, RAKS 8 07/22/14 DUGB 7 3/4 10/05/20 0.26% ADGB 5 1/2 04/08/14 which didn’t pay the $920 million sukuk when they matured at the end of Monthly Best monthly Performers Worst monthly Performers October, said Nov.7 it had reached a restructuring agreement with its main change noteholders including a partial cash payout. DANAGS 7 1/2 10/31/12 18.83% GOBLT 0 05/15/12 NBB, SIO Hold Talks With Investment Dar on Bahrain Islamic Stake- National Bank of Bahrain and the Social Insurance Organization are in talks with Investment Dar, the Kuwait-based majority owner of Aston Martin Lagonda Ltd., for a potential acquisition of shares in Bahrain Islamic Bank. The talks are at a preliminary stage and a potential acquisition is subject to completion of the due diligence process and regulatory approvals. It didn’t specify the amount of shares. Investment Dar holds a 39.75 percent stake in the Bahraini bank. Investment Dar last year restructured the terms on about $5 billion of loans after defaulting in 2009.
QATAR 4 1/2 01/20/22 NBADUH 4.365 08/09/32 NBADUH 5.01 05/22/42 NBADUH 4.8 09/15/36 Best YTD Performers NBADUH 4.8 09/15/36 INTPET 6 7/8 11/01/41 MBPSFN 11 1/4 11/15/15 NAKHL 10 08/25/16 TAQAUH 6 1/2 10/27/36
Dubai Group Talks Showcase Emirate’s Plunging Risk: Arab Credit- Dubai Group LLC progress in its quest to restructure $6 billion of debt after two years of talks underscores why investor perceptions of the emirate’s credit risk are improving more than twice as much as regional peers. The cost of insuring the emirate’s debt for five years tumbled 199 basis points, or 1.99 percentage points, this year to 246 yesterday, according to data provider CMA. That compares with a 68 basis-point decline in average credit default swaps in the Middle East to 261.
Source: Bloomberg, Markaz Analysis
GCC Utilization of Bond Markets is Growing- There is US$233bn in debt securities issued in the GCC in circulation, equivalent to 17% of the region's GDP. This is a relatively low level compared with advanced economies where government bonds alone often amount to over 100% of GDP. According to analysis by QNB Group, this debt includes US$17bn in central bank T-bills (short-term debt instruments that are generally used to manage domestic liquidity) and US$216bn in longer-term bonds & Sukuks
SAIBOR KIBOR BHIBOR QATAR AEIBOR LIBOR EURIBOR JDIBOR TRLIBOR
Foreign Money Cashes Out as Fitch Sparks Selloff: Turkey CreditForeign investors sold Turkish bonds at the fastest pace in two months a week after Fitch Ratings raised the nation’s debt to investment grade, locking in gains by the best-performing major emerging market this year. International investors cut bond holdings by $364 million in the week ending Nov. 16, the most since Sept. 21, according to central bank data. The securities surged after Fitch upgraded Turkey on Nov. 5 to BBB-, pushing yields on 2 yr benchmark debt down 48 bps for the biggest weekly decrease since January.
5.08% 3.67% 2.43% 2.41% YTD change 40.07% 35.55% 34.16% 32.95% 32.39%
BHRAIN 6.273 11/22/18 QTELQD 3 3/8 10/14/16 ALDAR 10 3/4 05/27/14 DOLNRG 5.888 06/15/19 Worst YTD Performers DAEAVI 11 1/4 08/01/15 TAQAUH 6.6 08/01/13 DUGB 4 02/22/14 ADGB 5 1/2 04/08/14 RAKS 8 07/22/14
Daily change -0.26% -0.19% -0.17% -0.17% -0.17% Monthly change -18.18% -0.95% -0.80% -0.77% -0.69% YTD change -2.44% -2.21% -2.20% -2.01% -1.86%
HSBC/NASDAQ Dubai Middle East US Dollar Sukuk /Bond Index Sukuk 23-Nov-12 31-Dec-11
Total Return 165.329 148.84
Duration Yield 5.006 4.99
Interbank Rates (%)
3-Month 25/11/12 31/12/11 0.9737 0.5188 0.8125 0.5625 1.1917 0.8500 1.2000 0.4300 1.3000 0.9750 0.3115 0.2953 0.1960 0.9643 5.0130 3.8410 6.5596 11.2750
3.59 5.07
Spread 230.756 326.79
Clean Coupon Total Market Cap Price 6.301 105.543 5.36 1523.900 6.80 99.35 5.81 1157.44
Life
6-Month 25/11/12 31/12/11 1.0112 0.7800 1.0625 0.8125 1.5167 1.2583 1.3714 1.1000 1.4713 1.5200 0.5270 0.5810 0.3810 1.2921 5.4470 4.2380 7.0702 11.316
1-Year 25/11/12 31/12/11 1.1287 1.0400 1.3125 1.3125 1.8900 1.9583 1.7071 2.1500 1.6312 1.9725 0.8610 1.1281 0.6070 1.9134 5.9967 5.2000 7.3767 11.3743
U.S. Treasuries 21 November 2012 3-Month 2-Year 3-Year 5-Year 7-Year 10-Year 30-Year
Current Yield (%) 0.10 0.25 0.34 0.63 1.03 1.60 2.73
1-Day ∆ (%) 0.000 -0.008 0.003 -0.006 -0.007 -0.017 -0.022
Sovereign Ratings Moody’s S&P Fitch Abu Aa2 AA AA Dhabi Bahrain Baa1 BBB
BBB
Kuwait
Aa2 AA
AA
Oman
A1
NR
Qatar
Aa2 AA
NR
KSA
Aa3 AA-
AA-
UAE
Aa2 NR
NR
Egypt
B2
B
B+
Lebanon B1
B
B
Turkey
BB
BB+
Tunisia Baa3 BB
BBB-
Morocco Ba1 BBB- BBBJordan
Ba2
BB
NR
China
Aa3 AA-
A+
UK
Aaa AAA
AAA
US
Aaa AA+
AAA
USD 5-Year YTD CDS Change Abu 88.670 -30.9% Dhabi Dubai 244.917 -43.6% Bahrain 208.000 -45.8% Qatar
90.575 -28.5%
Saudi
77.330 -39.1%
Egypt
389.525 -39.2%
Lebanon 427.250 Turkey Iran
Currency KWD SAR BHD QAR OMR AED EGP JOD EUR/USD
USD 0.2822 3.7503 0.3770 3.6411 0.3849 3.6730 6.0879 0.7078 1.2743
1-Day ∆ 0.0006 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 (0.0006) 0.0001 (0.0023) 0.0012 0.0038
1 Year (%) -2.005% 0.003% 0.003% 0.014% 0.018% 1.926% -1.506% 0.085% -3.154%
Ba1
A
9.2%
142.160 -50.5% 33.730 -12.9%
Morocco 245.000 -8.9% China
60.665 -58.5%
France
84.805 -61.6%
Germany 30.280 -70.2% Japan
72.340 -49.5%
UK
31.970 -67.3%
US
47.500
-3.0%
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A number of sources which include Bloomberg, Zawya, and daily newspapers were utilized in the creation of this report.