Local Development Plan 2030 Further Evidence Report - Housing March 2021 by Mid and East Antrim Borough Council

Local Development Plan 2030

Further Evidence Report Housing March 2021 www.midandeastantrim.gov.uk/planning

Contents 1.0

Introduction

2.0

Update on Survey Work and Studies Informing the Evidence Base for Housing

3.0

Supporting evidence to draft Plan Strategy 5.3 Strategic Housing Allocation Strategy

 Potential from Live Residential Planning Permissions and other Housing Potential in Settlements

 Update on New Dwelling Completions – as of 31 March 2020

 Update on Live Residential Planning Permissions – as of 31 March 2020

 Revised Housing Growth Indicator

Supporting evidence to draft Plan Strategy 8.1 Housing

 Policy HOU5 Affordable Housing in Settlements

 Policy HOU7 Adaptable and Accessible Homes

4.0

List of Figures and Tables Figures Figure A New dwelling completions in Mid and East Antrim Borough from 2012-2020 Figure B Housing Unit Completions in Settlements and the Countryside 2012-2020 Figure C Housing Unit Completions in Settlements and the Countryside 2015-2020

9 10 20

Tables Table 1 Housing Monitor Summary 2020 Table 2 New and replacement dwelling completions in open countryside 1 April 2012 – 31 March 2020 Table 3 Summary of Urban Capacity Results – from 2018 Urban Capacity Study and Update 2020 Table 4 Application of a 10% non-delivery allowance to Live Residential Planning Permission (2018) in relation to the Notional Housing Allocation 2018-2030 and additional potential sources with the urban footprint and urban fringe of main and small towns and within the settlement development limits of villages and small settlements Table 5 New dwelling completions in Mid and East Antrim Borough over nine years from 2012-2020 Table 6 Draft Plan Strategy adjusted HGI figure minus 2012-2020 completions to give Housing Allocation for 2020-2030 Table 7 Housing Allocation for 2020-2030 and Live Residential Planning Permission in Settlements at April 2020 Table 8 Housing Allocation for 2020-2030 and Live Residential Planning Permission in Settlements at April 2020 minus 10% Table 9 Status of Commitments (Live Residential Planning Permission) per settlement tier of existing settlements in 2018 and 2020 Table 10 Comparison of 2012-based and 2016-based HGI for Mid and East Antrim Table 11 Housing Allocation to Settlement tiers and the Countryside 2012-2030 figure and 2015-2030 figure Table 12 Housing Allocation between Settlements in each Tier taking account of the revised 2016-based HGI pro-rated for 1 April 2015 – 31 March 2030 Table 13 Calculation of the Adjusted Housing Allocation taking account of the revised 2016-based HGI pro-rated for 1 April 2015 – 31 March 2030 Table 14 Urban and Rural housing completions 2015-2020 in comparison to yearly average 2015-2030 HGI Table 15 Housing Allocation 2020-2030 and Live Residential Planning Permission in Settlements at April 2020 taking account of the revised 2016-based HGI pro-rated for 1 April 2015 – 31 March 2030 Table 16 Social Rented need as percentage of Notional Housing Allocation Table 17 Analysis of units completed by unit number August 2011 – March 2018 Table 18 Variety of quotas applied to potential yields Table 19 Criteria a) – e) of Policy HOU7 applied to a random selection of approved single dwellings across Mid and East Antrim Table 20 Criteria a) – e) of Policy HOU7 applied to a random selection of approved dwellings within larger residential developments across Mid and East Antrim

4 4 5 8

9 11 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 21 22 23 25 27 31 32

1.0

Introduction

1.1

This report has been prepared as part of the evidence base that has informed the preparation of the Mid and East Antrim Local Development Plan 2030. It provides updates to parts of Technical Supplement 3: Housing (published with the draft Plan Strategy) and further analysis of housing development and supply in the Borough. As well as providing evidence to support housing policies in the draft Plan Strategy, it has assisted with responses to some of the representations received to the draft Plan Strategy that are included in the Draft Plan Strategy Public Consultation Report (March 2021). In summary, this report details supporting evidence to draft Plan Strategy sections: 

5.3 Strategic Housing Allocation Strategy; and



8.1 Housing

2.0

Update on Survey Work and Studies Informing the Evidence Base for Housing

2.1

This section provides an update to section 4.0 of Technical Supplement 3: Housing and highlights updates to the studies listed by either Council or the Northern Ireland Housing Executive (NIHE). Mid and East Antrim Housing Land Availability Report (Housing Monitor)

2.2

A further two Housing Monitors have been carried out since the publication of the draft Plan Strategy and cover the following time periods:  Housing Land Availability Report 2019 - based on applications approved during the period 1 April 2018 to 31 March 2019 with the survey period covering 1 April 2018 to the 31 October 2019.  Housing Land Availability Report 2020 - based on applications approved during the period 1 April 2019 to 31 March 2020 with the survey period covering 1 November 2019 to the 30 September 2020.

Table 1 Housing Monitor Summary 2020 Live Permissions

Undeveloped Housing Zonings*

Total

Available Potential (Ha) (Units)

Within the Urban Fabric**

135.50

3,218

52.19

1,342

187.69

4,560

Greenfield

78.14

1,629

64.60

1,619

142.74

3,248

Settlements Total

213.64

4,847

116.79

2,961

330.43

7,808

66%

45%

58%

% units within the urban fabric**

*Housing zonings as per Ballymena Area Plan, Belfast Metropolitan Area Plan 2015 and Larne Area Plan **Refers to the urban fabric of settlements over 5,000 population (Ballymena, Carrickfergus, Larne & Greenisland)

Housing in the Open Countryside – Update 2020 2.3

Taking account of building control completion certificates for dwellings outside settlement limits, Table 4.2 from Technical Supplement 3 has been updated to include new and replacement dwelling completions in the open countryside from April 2018 to March 2020 (Table 2 below).

Table 2 New and replacement dwelling completions in open countryside 1 April 2012 – 31 March 2020 Year 1 April 2012 - 31 March 2013 1 April 2013 - 31 March 2014 1 April 2014 - 31 March 2015 1 April 2015 - 31 March 2016 1 April 2016 - 31 March 2017 1 April 2017 - 31 March 2018 1 April 2018 - 31 March 2019 1 April 2019 - 31 March 2020 Total

New dwellings completed (excluding replacements) 108 87 90 95* 76 83 82 65

Replacements completed 20 8 12 10 5 5 21 19

686

100

Total 128 95 102 105 81 88 103 84 786

Source: Building Control completion records *3 dwellings completed in Mill Bay added into the countryside completion count as it is a settlement proposed to be de-designated. Note: The completions for the rural and urban years have been taken as per HM year so each year is 1 April to 31 March. The urban figures for earlier HM years which do not follow this pattern have been pro-rated.

Urban Capacity Sites in Main and Small Towns – Update 2020 2.4

The Urban Capacity Study (Appendix I of Technical Supplement 3: Housing) was based on the 2016-2017 housing monitor and estimated that urban capacity sites over 0.2 hectares, could provide approximately 4,087 units across the Borough’s main and small towns (see Table 3 below). Prior to the publication of the draft Plan Strategy more up to date figures from the 2017-2018 housing monitor revealed that approximately 587 of the 4,087 unit potential had since became live residential planning permissions and this this was reflected in Figures A4 and A5 on pages 323 and 324 of the draft Plan Strategy. Further to the publication of the most recent Housing Monitor (2020) the development status of potential urban capacity sites in the main and small towns has been updated. The results shown in Table 3 below indicate that approximately 1,250 of the original identified unit potential from urban capacity sites are now either built out, subject to ongoing development or committed (for housing or any other use). It is noted that no further work on site suitability or availability has been carried out, this will be carried out as part of the Local Policies Plan process.

Table 3 Summary of Urban Capacity Results – from 2018 Urban Capacity Study and Update 2020 2018 Settlement Main Towns Ballymena Carrickfergus Larne Small Towns Greenisland Whitehead Ahoghill Broughshane Cullybackey Total

2020

Urban Capacity Area (Ha)

Urban Capacity Estimated Yield (Units)

Urban Capacity Area (Ha)

Urban Capacity Estimated Yield (Units)

58.86 53.89 33.88

1,470 1,349 850

41.44 37.86 23.07

1,039 948 580

2.7 1.76 0 1.35 10.84

69 45 0 32 272

0.89 0.85 0 0.5 8.63

23 22 0 13 216

163

4,087

113.24

2,841

Urban Fringe Study (2019) – Update 2020 2.5

The urban fringe study involved an initial audit of the amount of suitable, undeveloped, unzoned land within the urban fringe of our towns which could potentially be developed for housing. The total yield for undeveloped, unzoned land within the urban fringe which could be developed for housing within the top two settlement tiers is 3,190 units. Further to the publication of the most recent Housing Monitor (2020) the development status of potential fringe land in the main and small towns has been updated as such the potential yield is estimated to be approximately 2,880 units. The update took account of whether identified sites have been since built out, subject to ongoing development or committed (for housing or any other use). These sites will be fully assessed as potential housing sites as part of the Local Policies Plan process.

2.6

The Undeveloped Zoned Housing Land Audit (2018) continues to be monitored yearly but no further updates have being carried out in regard to the Houses in Multiple Occupation Study (HMO) (2018) or the Zoned Housing Land Ownership Survey (2017).

NIHE Housing Investment Plan (HIP) Mid and East Antrim (2019-2023) – Update 2020 2.7

NIHE published their first annual update for the ‘Housing Investment Plan 2019-2023’ (HIP) in 2020. This report indicates that within Mid and East Antrim the social rented housing need for 2019 - 2024 is 676, a slight increase in need from the 2018 – 2023 period where the need was 643. The intermediate housing need for 2019 – 2029 has dropped to 570 from 660 for 2018 – 2028. Both the Housing Investment Plan 2019-2023 and Update 2020 have been made available on Council’s website with this Further Evidence Report for ease of reference. NIHE Housing Needs Assessment (HNA) Mid and East Antrim

2.8

The NIHE present a Housing Needs Assessment each year to Council detailing the need for general needs social rented housing, supported housing and traveller’s accommodation with the Borough. The social rented housing need is normally projected for a 5 year period and in the latest annual report the total general needs social rented housing need for Mid and East Antrim Council for 2019 - 2024 has been assessed at 676 units.

2.9

As stated in Technical Supplement 3: Housing, NIHE also carried out a further HNA to project the social rented need until the end of the plan period - Updated 15 year Housing Need Assessment to 2030 (December 2018). This study used the 2015/16 social rented housing need for the Borough as a baseline and took account of units started since April 2015 and units programmed with planning approval. It estimated a social rented housing need of 1,331 units for the period 2018-2030. Whilst there has been no further update to this study the document has been made available on council’s website with this Further Evidence Report for ease of reference. NIHE Housing Market Analysis Update (HMA) Mid and East Antrim (June 2018)

2.10

Whilst there has been no further update to the June 2018 HMA for the Borough the document has been made available on council’s website with this Further Evidence Report for ease of reference.

3.0

Supporting evidence to draft Plan Strategy 5.3 Strategic Housing Allocation Strategy

3.1

This section provides updates and further supporting evidence to 5.3 Strategic Housing Allocation Strategy of the draft Plan Strategy and includes the following:  Potential from Live Residential Planning Permissions and other Housing Potential in Settlements  Update on New Dwelling Completions – as of 31 March 2020  Update on Live Residential Planning Permissions – as of 31 March 2020  Revised Housing Growth Indicator Potential from Live Residential Planning Permissions and other Housing Potential in Settlements

3.2

In their response to the draft Plan Strategy the Department for Infrastructure questioned if Council had considered the merit of making an allowance to account for not all existing commitments being built. Existing commitments (dwelling units with live planning permission) are considered to be an available land supply. Table A3 on page 321 of the draft Plan Strategy indicates there is potential for the existing live residential planning permissions in settlements (2018) to deliver the majority of the housing growth requirements for the Borough until the end of the plan period. It is accepted that not all these commitments will be built. Table 4 below sets out the effect of a 10% allowance towards the non-delivery of existing commitments. It highlights that this would result in a potential difference of 582 units short of the housing allocation for settlements in the top three tiers of the hierarchy. As progress is made through the LDP process some may lapse and other planning permissions will be forthcoming. This will be reviewed at Local Policies Plan stage.

3.3

However, at this stage it is worth noting the level of additional housing potential within existing settlements as a result of the legacy of previous area plans. Table 4 illustrates that there is potential for a further 5,667 units from windfall, urban capacity sites (in main and small towns) and settlement capacity sites (in the villages). This far exceeds the remaining allocation of 582 not met by existing commitments (minus 10%) (See column c). Of this total, a potential of 3,585 units lie within main towns and 511 units within small towns. In addition, further substantial potential exists within the urban fringe of these settlements, particularly in main towns. It is anticipated that these various sources of housing land supply within existing settlements will more than compensate for any live residential planning permissions that do not come forward and also provide flexibility and choice. Overall live permissions (minus 10% not coming forward), urban capacity sites, windfall and the urban fringe in the top three tiers of the settlement hierarchy have the potential to exceed the housing allocation figure by approximately 10,634 units. Almost 80% of this potential is located in the main towns. Exceptionally, if supply is limited additional land may be identified at Local Policies Plan stage in order to provide sufficient flexibility and avoid over-reliance on extant approvals alone to deliver the housing allocation at the level of individual settlements.

Table 4 Application of a 10% non-delivery allowance to Live Residential Planning Permission (2018) in relation to the Notional Housing Allocation 2018-2030 and additional potential sources with the urban footprint and urban fringe of main and small towns and within the settlement development limits of villages and small settlements Housing Allocation (Units) (a)

Settlements

Housing allocation 2018-2030 (2012-2030 HGI minus completions 2012-2018)

Live Residential Planning Permissions (Units) (b) (c) Live Residential Planning Permissions 2018 minus 10%

Difference in Housing Allocation and Live Residential Planning Permissions

Potential within Urban Footprint (Units) (d)

(e)

(f)

Urban Capacity Sites/ Settlement Capacity Sites

Windfall

Difference in Potential from Urban Capacity and Windfall and (c)

Potential within Urban Fringe (Units) (g) (h) Urban Fringe undeveloped zoning

Urban Fringe whiteland

Overall potential (Units) (i) Difference in Potential from Urban Capacity, Windfall and Urban Fringe and (c) (d + e + g + f + or -c)

(d + e + or - c)

(a-b) Main Towns 991

896

95 short of allocation

1,470

212

Exceeds allocation by 1,587

815

2,291

Exceeds allocation by 4,693

1,239

1,100

139 short of allocation

981

107

Exceeds allocation by 949

164

578

Exceeds allocation by 1,691

879

760

119 short of allocation

666

149

Exceeds allocation by 696

1,122

246

Exceeds allocation by 2,064

3,109

2,756

353 short of allocation

3,117

468

Exceeds allocation by 3,232

2,101

3,115

Exceeds allocation by 8,448

Greenisland

150

118

Whitehead

218

Ahoghill

Ballymena Carrickfergus Larne Main Towns total Small Towns

Exceeds allocation by 54 208 short of allocation 28 short of allocation

Exceeds allocation by 160 134 short of allocation 6 short of allocation

Exceeds allocation by 296 134 short of allocation Exceeds allocation by 116

Exceeds allocation by 16

Exceeds allocation by 30

Broughshane

5 short of allocation

Cullybackey

110

102

8 short of allocation

272

Exceeds allocation by 280

Exceeds allocation by 341

Small Towns total

584

390

194 short of allocation

399

112

Exceeds allocation by 317

258

Exceeds allocation by 650

Capacity within Settlement Limit

Villages Kells/Connor

Exceeds allocation by 8

Exceeds allocation by 58

Carnlough

33 short of allocation

360

Exceeds allocation by 327

Ballycarry

156

Exceeds allocation by 98

328*

Exceeds allocation by 426

Portglenone

7 short of allocation

235

Exceeds allocation by 228

Ballystrudder

9 short of allocation

Exceeds allocation by 43

Ballygalley

37 short of allocation

11*

26 short of allocation

Glynn

39 short of allocation

154

Exceeds allocation by 115

Glenarm

31 short of allocation

190

Exceeds allocation by 159

Cargan

11 short of allocation

119*

Exceeds allocation by 108

Martinstown

-16

Exceeds allocation by 24

17**

Exceeds allocation by 41

Clough

Exceeds allocation by 2

Exceeds allocation by 57

Villages total

421

386

35 short of allocation

1,571

Exceeds allocation by 1,536

4,115

3,532

582 short of allocation

5,087

580

Unknown

N/A

Top 3 Tier Totals

Exceeds allocation by 5,085

2,359

3,190

Exceeds allocation by 10,634

N/A

Small Settlements Small settlements total

142

Settlement total

4,256

3,597

Countryside total

358

Unknown

Mid and East Antrim Total

580

4,614

Figures are rounded therefore may not add exactly For capacity: *20 dwellings per Ha **10 dwellings per Ha Remainder: 25 dwellings per Ha. The figure of 65 live residential permissions in small settlements total includes 26 dwellings (29 approvals minus 10%) within the settlements to be de-designated. Approvals in proposed small settlements have not be added until settlement limits are produced. Live residential permission in Trooperslane have been included within the total for Carrickfergus . Total potential from whiteland in small settlements have not be added until settlement limits are produced for new small settlements.

Update on New Dwelling Completions – as of 31 March 2020 3.4

Table 7.4 from Technical Supplement 3: Housing has been updated to include new dwelling completions between 2018-2020. Table 5 and Figures A and B below therefore now indicate the number of completions (both in settlements and the open countryside) between 2012 and 2020. This is considered to represent a reasonable timeframe to identify any notable variation. The high completion rate in 2017-2018 can in part be attributed to a high rate of social rented units being completed during this period, particularly in Ballymena town.

Table 5 New dwelling completions in Mid and East Antrim Borough over eight years from 2012-2020 2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16*

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

Total completed units

Average

163

113

319

431

456

842

363

364

3,051

381

108

686

271

200

409

526

532

925

445

429

3,737

467

Settlement completions (Housing Monitor) Rural completions (Building Control records) Total Completions

*3 dwellings completed in Mill Bay added into the countryside completion count as it is a settlement proposed to be de-designated. Note: The rural completions exclude replacement dwellings. The completions for the rural and urban years have been taken as per HM year so each year is 1 April to 31 March. The urban figures for earlier HM years which do not follow this pattern have been pro-rated.

Figure A New dwelling completions in Mid and East Antrim Borough from 2012-2020 1000 900 800 700 600 500

415

400 300 200 100 0 2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

Settlement completions

2015/16

2016/17

Rural completions

2017/18

2018/19

Total Completions

2019/20 Yearly Housing Allocation

Figure B Housing Unit Completions in Settlements and the Countryside 2012-2020

Note: New small settlements have all been given a figure of 0 as their boundaries are yet to be determined and they are not included in the current settlement housing monitor. Their completions are accounted for in the countryside figure.

3.5

Table 6 sets out the 2012-based HGI figure adjusted by the Housing Evaluation Framework (figures from column five of Table 7.2 in Technical Supplement 3: Housing) minus the 2012-2020 completions figure, to present a notional housing allocation figure for the period 2020-2030 of 3,741 for the Borough (see column four for breakdown of tiers and individual settlements).

Table 6 Draft Plan Strategy adjusted HGI figure minus 2012-2020 completions to give Housing Allocation for 20202030 Adjusted HGI Figure to individual settlements following application of Housing Evaluation Framework

Completions 2012-2020

Housing Allocation 2020-2030 after HEF adjustment (2012-2030 HGI minus 2012-2020 Completions)

Main Towns Ballymena Carrickfergus Larne Main Towns total

1,791 1,667 1,178 4,636

1,048 554 427 2,029

743 1,113 751 2,607

Small Towns Greenisland Whitehead Ahoghill Broughshane Cullybackey Small Towns total

357 222 192 176 175 1,122

348 5 135 135 89 712

9 217 57 41 86 410

Villages Kells/Connor Carnlough Ballycarry Portglenone Ballystrudder Ballygalley Glynn Glenarm Cargan Martinstown Clough

135 93 85 81 62 45 40 35 32 16 12

79 21 38 44 23 7 1 2 17 32 0

56 72 47 37 39 38 39 33 15 -16 12

Villages total

636

264

372

Combined figure below

11 1 4 3 20 2 0 5 0

Combined figure below

Settlement

Small Settlements Grange Corner Carnalbanagh Carncastle Crosshill Glenoe Magheramorne Mounthill Mullaghboy Raloo Newtowncrommelin Moorfields Buckna Glarryford Woodgreen Milltown Slaght Craigywarren

Settlement limits not yet defined

187

461

141

Settlement total

6,580

3,051

3,530

Countryside total

897

686

211

7,477

3,7371

3,741

Small settlements total

Mid and East Antrim Total

Figures are rounded therefore may not add exactly 1. The completions for small settlements only includes those whose designation is to remain; it does not included those settlements to be de-designated (they are not listed in this table). Three dwellings completed within the small settlements to be de-designated between 2012-2020 have been added into the countryside completion count. Proposed new small settlements completions are accounted for in the countryside figure as their settlement limits have not yet been defined.

Update on Live Residential Planning Permissions in Settlements – as of 31 March 2020 3.6

Table 7 lists 4,847 live residential planning permissions in settlements in the Borough as of the end of March 2020 (an update on Table 7.5 of Technical Supplement 3: Housing). This is an increase of 850 residential units when compared to 2018 when 3,997 units were identified.

3.7

It is interesting to note that by 2020, 81% of commitments in settlements were within main towns, up from 77% in 2018. This trend is in line with the RDS in that most housing growth should be directed to the main towns.

3.8

Considering the updated notional housing allocation figure of 3,741 for settlements for the period 20202030, live residential permissions in settlements as of 31 March 2020 would exceed this figure by 1,106 units or 30%.

3.9

This table also demonstrates that live residential permissions would exceed the notional 2020-2030 housing allocation figure for main towns considerably (by over 1,000 units) and to a lesser degree in villages. Such permissions are slightly below the notional 2020-2030 housing allocation figure for small towns.

3.10

As it is accepted that not all these 2020 commitments will be built, Table 8 below sets out the effect of a 10% allowance towards the non-delivery of existing commitments. This demonstrates that live residential permissions would still exceed the notional 2020-2030 allocation figure for main towns (over 900 units) and villages (almost 40 units). As stated earlier in this report there is also a considerable level of additional housing potential with existing settlements as a result of the legacy of previous area plans. These additional sources would help compensate for any live residential planning permissions that do not come forward and provide flexibility and choice.

Table 7 Housing Allocation for 2020-2030 and Live Residential Planning Permission in Settlements at April 2020

Housing Allocation 2020-2030 after HEF adjustment minus 2012-2020 Completions (2012-2030 HGI)

Live residential planning permissions (units)

Difference in notional allocation figure and Live residential planning permissions (units)

Main Towns Ballymena Carrickfergus Larne

743 1,113 751

1,061 1,5411 1,329

Exceeds allocation by 318 Exceeds allocation by 428 Exceeds allocation by 578

Main Towns total

2,607

3,931

Exceeds allocation by 1,324

9 217 57 41 86 410

160 33 39 25 118 375

Exceeds allocation by 151 184 short of allocation 18 short of allocation 16 short of allocation Exceeds allocation by 32 35 short of allocation

Kells/Connor Carnlough Ballycarry Portglenone Ballystrudder Ballygalley Glynn Glenarm Cargan Martinstown Clough

56 72 47 37 39 38 39 33 15 -16 12

64 45 61 86 34 1 124 1 17 1 21

Exceeds allocation by 8 27 short of allocation Exceeds allocation by 14 Exceeds allocation by 49 5 short of allocation 37 short of allocation Exceeds allocation by 85 32 short of allocation Exceeds allocation by 2 Exceeds allocation by 17 Exceeds allocation by 9

Villages total

372

455

Exceeds allocation by 83

Combined figure below

0 0 21 6 0 3 0 11 0

Settlement

Small Towns Greenisland Whitehead Ahoghill Broughshane Cullybackey Small Towns total Villages

Small Settlements Grange Corner Carnalbanagh Carncastle Crosshill Glenoe Magheramorne Mounthill Mullaghboy Raloo Newtowncrommelin Moorfields Buckna Glarryford Woodgreen Milltown Slaght Craigywarren

Settlement limits not yet defined

141

862

Settlement total Countryside total

3,530 211

4,847 Unknown

Mid and East Antrim Total

3,741

Small settlements total

Figures are rounded therefore may not add exactly 1. Carrickfergus live residential permissions includes 10 in Trooperslane 2. The figure of 86 live approvals in small settlements includes 45 dwellings within the settlements to be de-designated (they are not listed in this table).

Table 8 Housing Allocation for 2020-2030 and Live Residential Planning Permission in Settlements at April 2020 minus 10% Housing Allocation 2020-2030 after HEF adjustment minus 2012-2020 Completions (2012-2030 HGI)

Live residential planning permissions (units) Minus 10%

Difference in notional allocation figure and Live residential planning permissions (units)

743 1,113 751 2,607

955 1,3871 1,196 3,538

Exceeds allocation by 212 Exceeds allocation by 274 Exceeds allocation by 445 Exceeds allocation by 931

Greenisland Whitehead Ahoghill Broughshane Cullybackey

9 217 57 41 86

144 30 35 22 106

Exceeds allocation by 135 187 short of allocation 22 short of allocation 19 short of allocation Exceeds allocation by 20

Small Towns total

410

337

73 short of allocation

Kells/Connor Carnlough Ballycarry Portglenone Ballystrudder Ballygalley Glynn Glenarm Cargan Martinstown Clough

56 72 47 37 39 38 39 33 15 -16 12

58 40 55 77 31 1 112 1 15 1 19

Exceeds allocation by 2 32 short of allocation Exceeds allocation by 8 Exceeds allocation by 40 8 short of allocation 37 short of allocation Exceeds allocation by 73 32 short of allocation Meets allocation Exceeds allocation by 17 Exceeds allocation by 7

Villages total

372

410

Exceeds allocation by 38

Combined figure below

0 0 19 5 0 3 0 10 0

Settlement

Main Towns Ballymena Carrickfergus Larne Main Towns total Small Towns

Villages

Small Settlements Grange Corner Carnalbanagh Carncastle Crosshill Glenoe Magheramorne Mounthill Mullaghboy Raloo Newtowncrommelin Moorfields Buckna Glarryford Woodgreen Milltown Slaght Craigywarren Small settlements total

Settlement limits not yet defined

772

141

Settlement total

3,530

4,362

Countryside total

211

Unknown

Mid and East Antrim Total

3,741

Figures are rounded therefore may not add exactly 1. Carrickfergus live residential permissions includes Trooperslane 2. The figure of live approvals in small settlements includes dwellings within the settlements to be de-designated (they are not listed in this table).

3.11

Table 9 below examines the status of live residential planning permissions in 2018 and in 2020. In 2018, 30% of the live permissions were ongoing and almost 40% had full or reserved matters approval. Taken together this demonstrates that almost 70% of live permissions could be considered as having a high level of commitment and potential to be delivered. The general trend was similar when live permission in 2020 were analysed, with a slightly higher level of live permissions ongoing.

Table 9 Status of Commitments (Live Residential Planning Permission) per settlement tier of existing settlements in 2018 and 2020 2018 Potential from Extant Sites (Excluding uncommitted zoned housing land)

2020 Potential from Extant Sites (Excluding uncommitted zoned housing land)

Housing Allocation 2018-2030

Ongoing

Full

Outline

Total

Housing Allocation 2020- 2030

Ongoing

Full

Outline

Total

Main Towns

3,109

732

1,230

157

944

3,063

2,607

1,222

1,364

1,326

3,931

Small Towns

584

230

122

433

410

105

124

146

375

Villages

421

203

153

429

372

352

455

Small Settlements

142

141

4,256

1,191

1,394

159

1,253

3,997

3,741

1,705

1,587

1,535

4,847

30%

35%

31%

100%

33%

0.4%

Settlement tier

All Settlements

Carrickfergus live residential permissions includes Trooperslane

35%

32%

100%

Revised Housing Growth Indicator (HGI) 3.12

On the 25 September 2019, after the launch of the Mid and East Antrim draft Plan Strategy on 17 September 2019, the Department for Infrastructure published the Housing Growth Indicators 2016-based. Council have considered the revised Mid and East Antrim HGI below and for information purposes have illustrated the effect of it on the strategic allocation of housing within the Borough. It follows the broad methodology for the strategic housing allocation set out in Appendix A of the draft Plan Strategy and Technical Supplement 3: Housing which used the 2012-based HGI.

3.13

The revised HGI figure of 5,400 dwellings for Mid and East Antrim Borough for the 15 year period, 1 January 2016 to 31 December 2030, used 2016-based household projections. Whilst the figure of 5,400 dwellings remained the same as the 2012-based HGI, it ultimately represents a reduced figure as the 2012-based HGI covered a 13 year period, 1 April 2012 to 31 March 2025 (this translated to 6,230 for the plan period 20152030). Making a direct comparison between a 15 year period using the 2012-based HGI and the same period using the 2016-based HGI, the latter would represent a reduction of 13% or 830 less new dwellings being required.

3.14

For the draft Plan Strategy the figure of 5,400 was projected on a pro-rata basis to 2030 for the period 20122030 to give a figure of 7,477 dwellings (2012 being the HGI baseline date and 2030 being the end of the plan period). For analysis of the revised HGI the plan period 1 April 2015 – 31 March 2030 has been used. However, as the start date for the revised HGI only begins in January 2016, a year into the plan period it has been calculated as follows: (Note: yearly 2012-based HGI= 415 and yearly 2016-based HGI=360) A 9 months pre January 2016: 1 April 2015 - December 2015

B January 2016 - 31 March 2030

C Plan period 1 April 2015 - 31 March 2030

Yearly 2012-based HGI divided by 12 months x 9 months

Yearly revised 2016-based HGI January 2016 - December 2016 minus April 2030 - December 2030

A+B=C

415 ÷ 12 x 9 = 311

5,400 – (360 ÷ 12 x 9) = 5,130

311 + 5,130 = 5,441 Yearly HGI: 5,441 ÷ 15 = 362.7 rounded to 363 per year

Table 10 Comparison of 2012-based and 2016-based HGI for Mid and East Antrim 2012-based HGI 1 April 2012 – 31 March 2025 (13 years)

2016-based HGI 1 January 2016 – 31 December 2030 (15 years)

5,400

Allocation for Plan period (1 April 2015-31 March 2030)

6,230

5,441

Annualised

415.3

363

Allocation of housing to settlement tiers and the countryside using revised HGI 3.15

Table 11 follows the methodology set out in paragraph 7.9 of Technical Supplement 3: Housing, and updates Table 7.1 in the same document with the revised HGI figure pro-rated for 2015-2030.

Table 11 Housing Allocation to Settlement tiers and the Countryside 2012-2030 figure and 2015-2030 figure

Tier

Allocation to Tier (% of HGI)

Difference to 2011 Census status quo

Allocation to Tier (2012-2030 Figure)

Allocation to Tier (2015-2030 Figure)

Main Towns

62%

3.5 percentage point increase

4,636

3,373

Small Towns

15%

1 percentage point increase

1,122

816

Villages

8.5%

1 percentage point increase

636

462

Small Settlements

2.5%

0.7 percentage point increase

187

136

Countryside

12%

6.2 percentage point increase

897

653

Total

100%

7,477

5,441

Note: Figures in column four are rounded therefore may not add exactly

Allocation of housing between settlements in each tier 3.16

Following the methodology in paragraph 7.10 of Technical Supplement 3: Housing, the initial allocation to settlements in each tier was calculated using their share of the allocation to the tier based on their share of households in 2011, which gave a preliminary housing allocation to each settlement (Table 12). Column four of Table 12 overleaf shows the initial allocation to each settlement after working through this exercise with the revised HGI figure pro-rated for 2015-2030.

Applying the RDS Housing Evaluation Framework 3.17

The RDS Housing Evaluation Framework (HEF) was applied to the revised HGI figure pro-rated for 2015-2030 in accordance with the methodology set out in paragraphs 7.11 – 7.14 of Technical Supplement 3: Housing. The overall percentage score for each settlement has then been applied to the preliminary allocation figure which had been given to each settlement based on their share of households in 2011, and this equates to the revised housing allocation for each settlement set out in column five of Table 12 overleaf. Further detail on the methodology used is set out in Table 13.

Table 12 Housing Allocation between Settlements in each Tier taking account of the revised 2016-based HGI prorated for 1 April 2015 – 31 March 2030 % per household % in 2011 Main towns +3.5% on status quo, Small towns +1%, Villages +1%, Small Settlements +0.7%, Countryside -6.2%

Adjusted HGI Allocation figure to individual settlements following application of Housing Evaluation Framework

Households 2011 Census

(HGI 1 Apr 2015-31 Mar 2030: 5,441) (15 years)

Ballymena Carrickfergus Larne Main Towns total

12,105 11,536 8,152 31,793

23.6% 22.5% 15.9% 62%

1,284 1,224 865 3,373

1,303 1,213 857 3,373

Small Towns Greenisland Whitehead Ahoghill Broughshane Cullybackey Small Towns total

2,324 1,633 1,320 1,235 1,088 7,600

4.59% 3.22% 2.6% 2.44% 2.15% 15%

250 175 141 133 117 816

259 161 140 129 127 816

Villages Kells/Connor Carnlough Ballycarry Portglenone Ballystrudder Ballygalley Glynn Glenarm Cargan Martinstown Clough Villages total

808 563 536 498 389 333 267 242 223 108 90 4,057

1.7% 1.18% 1.12% 1.04% 0.82% 0.7% 0.56% 0.51% 0.47% 0.23% 0.19% 8.5%

92 64 61 57 45 38 30 28 26 13 10 462

97 68 61 59 45 33 28 26 24 12 9 462

Small Settlements Small settlements total

1,001

2.5%

136

Settlement total Countryside total

44,451 9,863

88% 12%

4,788 653

Mid and East Antrim Total

54,314

5,441

Settlement

HGI allocation

Main Towns

Note: Figures are rounded therefore may not add exactly. In the heading of column 3 the figures +3.5, +1, +0.7, -6.2 refer to percentage point increases or decrease to the percentage allocated to settlement tiers from the status quo at the time of the 2011 Census

Table 13 Calculation of the Adjusted Housing Allocation taking account of the revised 2016-based HGI pro-rated for 1 April 2015 – 31 March 2030 Baseline Allocation Overall HEF Adjusted HEF Figure (BAF) score figure (based on 2011 Census) Main Towns - Overall Housing Allocation for this tier – 3,373 Ballymena Carrickfergus Larne

1,284 1,224 865

+5% +2.5% +2.5%

Small Towns - Overall Housing Allocation for this tier – 816 Greenisland 250 +10%

Total of adjusted figures

1,348.2 1,254.6 886.63

3,489.43

275

% of each settlements share of adjusted figure

Adjusted Housing allocation based on the application of revised % to original BAF

Adjusted figure rounded up/down

1,348.2 / 3489.43 = 38.64% 1,254.6 / 3489.43 =35.95% 886.63 / 3489.43 = 25.41%

38.64% of 3,373 = 1,303.33 35.95% of 3,373 = 1,212.59 25.41% of 3,373 = 857.08

275 / 864.56 = 31.81%

31.81% of 816 = 259.57*

259

170.63 / 864.56 = 19.74%

19.74% of 816 = 161.08

161

148.05 / 864.56 = 17.12%

17.12% of 816 = 139.70

140

1,303 1,213 857

Whitehead

175

-2.5%

170.63

Ahoghill

141

+5%

148.05

Broughshane

133

+2.5%

136.33

136.33 / 864.56 = 15.77%

15.77% of 816 = 128.69

129

Cullybackey

117

+15%

134.55

134.55 / 864.56 = 15.56%

15.56% of 816 = 126.97

127

103.5

103.5 / 492.14 = 21.03%

21.03% of 462 = 97.16

72 / 492.14 = 14.63%

14.63% of 462 = 67.59

Villages - Overall Housing Allocation for this tier - 462 Kells & Connor 92 +12.5%

864.56

Carnlough

+12.5%

Ballycarry

+7.5%

65.58

65.58 / 492.14 = 13.33%

13.33% of 462 = 61.58**

Portglenone

+10%

62.7

62.7 / 492.14 = 12.74%

12.74% of 462 = 58.86

Ballystrudder

+7.5%

48.38

48.38 / 492.14 = 9.83%

9.83% of 462 = 45.41

Ballygalley

-7.5%

35.15

35.15 / 492.14 = 7.14%

7.14% of 462 = 32.97

Glynn

No change

30 / 492.14 = 6.10%

6.10% of 462 = 28.18

Glenarm

-2.5%

27.3

27.3 / 492.14 = 5.55%

5.55% of 462 = 25.64

Cargan

-2.5%

25.35

25.35 / 492.14 = 5.15%

5.15% of 462 = 23.79

Martinstown

-2.5%

12.68

12.68 / 492.14 = 2.58%

2.58% of 462 = 11.92

Clough

-5%

9.5

9.5 / 492.14 = 1.93%

1.93% of 462 = 8.92

492.14

*this figure was not rounded up to get the overall tier figure of 816, although it was over .5. **this figure was not rounded up to get the overall tier figure of 462, although it was above .5 In both cases the settlement with the closest % to .5 was selected for these minor adjustments.

Update of housing unit completions 3.18

The notional allocation to various settlements in column five of Table 12 has been refined to take account of the number of housing units that have been completed/already constructed in each settlement between 1 April 2015 and 31 March 2020 (see Figure C and Table 14).

Figure C Housing Unit Completions in Settlements and the Countryside 2015-2020

Table 14 Urban and Rural housing completions 2015-2020 in comparison to yearly average 2015-2030 HGI 2015/16*>

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

Total completed units

Settlement completions (Housing Monitor)

431

456

842

363

364

2,456

Rural completions (Building Control records)

401

Total Completions

526

532

925

445

429

2,857

Difference to HGI

+111

+169

+562

+82

+66

+990

*3 dwellings completed in Mill Bay added into the countryside completion count as it is a settlement proposed to be de-designated. > Based on the difference to 2012-based HGI which was 415 per year. Remainder of years based on the difference to 2016-based HGI pro-rated 2015-2030 which was 363 per year. Note: The rural completions exclude replacement dwellings. The completions for the rural and urban years have been taken as per HM year so each year is 1 April to 31 March. The urban figures for earlier HM years which do not follow this pattern have been pro-rated.

3.19

Since April 2015, 2,456 housing units have been completed within settlements and 401 in the open countryside (excluding replacement dwellings). This is a total of 2,857 housing unit completions within the Borough and equates to an average of 571 per year. Taking away the number of housing units completed from the revised 2016-based HGI pro-rated for 1 April 2015 – 31 March 2030, adjusted by the Housing Evaluation Framework, leaves a figure of 2,582 for the Borough (see column three of Table 15 Housing Allocation 2020-2030 and Live Residential Planning Permission in Settlements April 2020 for breakdown of individual settlements). The table also shows the residual allocation to each settlement after deducting the number of units built (2015 - 2020) from the notional allocation to each settlement as shown column five of Table 12 above. Based on the revised HGI figure this would be the residual figure to be allocated to each settlement over the remainder of the Plan period.

3.20

The baseline evidence used to inform the draft Plan Strategy was from a specific point in time and as a result the strategic allocating of housing in the draft Plan Strategy relates to the 2012-based HGI. The HGIs are not a cap on housing development in the area or a target to be achieved and are used to inform the strategic allocation of housing. The comparison of the 2012- based and 2016-based HGIs show a reduction of 52 units from the 2012-based yearly figures to the 2016 based yearly figures; a difference of 789 over the plan period.

3.21

Council has considered the possible impact of the 2016-based HGI’s and as they do not represent a significant variation it does not propose a change to the Strategic Allocation of Housing in Settlements as set out in SGS3 (page 62) of the draft plan Strategy.

3.22

The housing distribution proposed by the draft Plan Strategy is in line with the Spatial Framework of the RDS and it emphasises the importance of critical mass in the Belfast Metropolitan Area (Carrickfergus) and hubs (Ballymena and Larne), on developing compact urban forms and using land within the existing urban footprints. The quantum of housing that the plan has the potential to accommodate within all tiers of the settlement hierarchy, with a few minor exceptions, exceeds that of the planned housing allocations, regardless if the 2012-based or 2016-based HGI is used as a starting point.

Table 15 Housing Allocation 2020-2030 and Live Residential Planning Permission in Settlements at April 2020 taking account of the revised 2016-based HGI pro-rated for 1 April 2015 – 31 March 2030

Settlement

Main Towns Ballymena Carrickfergus Larne Main Towns total Small Towns Greenisland Whitehead Ahoghill Broughshane Cullybackey Small Towns total

Completions 2015-2020

Housing allocation 2020-2030 after HEF adjustment (Minus 2015-2020 Completions)

Live residential planning permissions (units)

Difference in notional allocation figure and Live residential planning permissions (units)

863 447 329 1,639

440 766 528 1,734

1,061 1,541 1,329 3,931

Exceeds allocation by 621 Exceeds allocation by 775 Exceeds allocation by 801 Exceeds allocation by 2,197

299 4 113 108 79 603

-40 157 27 21 48 213

160 33 39 25 118 375

Exceeds allocation by 200 124 short of allocation Exceeds allocation by 12 Exceeds allocation by 4 Exceeds allocation by 70 Exceeds allocation by 162

Villages Kells/Connor Carnlough Ballycarry Portglenone Ballystrudder Ballygalley Glynn Glenarm Cargan Martinstown Clough

63 19 27 33 6 6 1 2 17 16 0

34 49 34 26 39 27 27 24 7 -4 9

64 45 61 86 34 1 124 1 17 1 21

Exceeds allocation by 30 4 short of allocation Exceeds allocation by 27 Exceeds allocation by 60 5 short of allocation 26 short of allocation Exceeds allocation by 97 23 short of allocation Exceeds allocation by 10 Exceeds allocation by 5 Exceeds allocation by 12

Villages total

190

272

455

Exceeds allocation by 183

3 0 3 2 13 0 0 3 0

Combined figure below

Settlement limits not yet defined

0 0 21 6 0 3 0 11 0

Settlement limits not yet defined

24 2,456 401

112 2,331 252

2,857

2,583

86* 4,847 Unknown

Carrickfergus live residential permissions includes 10 in Trooperslane *The figure of 86 live approvals in small settlements includes 45 dwellings within the settlements to be de-designated (they are not listed in this table)

4.0

Supporting evidence to draft Plan Strategy 8.1 Housing

4.1

This section provides updates and further supporting evidence to the following housing policies in the draft Plan Strategy:  Policy HOU5 Affordable Housing in Settlements  Policy HOU7 Adaptable and Accessible Homes Policy HOU5 Affordable Housing in Settlements

4.2

The thresholds and quotas for this policy were set taking into account the draft Plan Strategy Strategic Spatial Framework, land availability, the level of committed housing sites, local need and projections in the Housing Needs Assessment and discussion with NIHE.

4.3

Social rented housing need varies within settlements, with Carrickfergus having the highest need followed by Ballymena. Examining this need alongside the notional housing allocation figure for each settlement, uncovers a number of settlements (Ballymena, Greenisland, Broughshane and Cullybackey) where completions and live planning permissions would already meet the allocation figure but these will not meet the social rented housing need (see pages 323 and 324 of the draft Plan Strategy). For all these settlements, save for Broughshane, the social rented housing need could potentially be met by urban capacity and/or windfall potential. In Carrickfergus and Ahoghill, completions and live planning permissions fall just below the notional housing allocation figure, but the social rented housing need would push the figure beyond this. In Whitehead the use of all current urban capacity sites would meet the predicted social rented housing need, but fall short of meeting the notional housing allocation figure. At present it would appear that only Broughshane, Ahoghill and Whitehead may have difficulty meeting current social rented housing need through urban capacity or windfall potential. However, these is some availability in the urban fringe of Ahoghill. NIHE have advised that social rented housing provision in nearby settlements may be acceptable where there is more land availability within existing settlement limits.

4.4

NIHE agreed that the policy requiring the provision of affordable housing was only necessary in settlements where such a need was identified through the Housing Needs Assessment. The projected social rented need until 2030 in individual settlements was calculated as a percentage of the remaining HGI (Table 16). NIHE were satisfied that the LDP policy should not have to meet all the social housing need.

Table 16 Social Rented need as percentage of Notional Housing Allocation Settlement with Notional Housing Allocation Social rented need social rented need 2018-2030 (Units) Main Towns Ballymena 991 365 Carrickfergus 1,239 518 Larne 879 21 Small Towns Greenisland 96 53 Whitehead 218 45 Ahoghill 94 99 Broughshane 67 115 Cullybackey 110 15 Villages Kells/Connor 72 1 Carnlough 83 34 Portglenone 45 20 Ballystrudder 40 Part of 15 for Islandmagee Glynn 39 8 Cargan 16 Part of 24 for Glenravel Martinstown -16 Part of 24 for Glenravel Note: Social rented need in areas of Glenravel 24, Islandmagee 15 – these are not designated settlements

Social rented need as % of Housing Allocation 37% 42% 2% 55% 21% 105% 172% 14% 1% 41% 48% 21%

4.5

As many of the housing sites in the Borough are already committed, a low threshold was considered necessary, and supported by NIHE, to maximise the number of sites from which affordable housing units can be sought in order to provide an adequate supply of affordable housing, especially for rural areas. The threshold of 10 units or more was therefore considered the most appropriate. If set any lower (e.g. 5 units) it may be difficult for a development to incorporate affordable housing units or achieve a meaningful mix of units. NIHE did not support higher thresholds, as this would reduce the provision of social rented and intermediate housing and the policy aim of mixed tenure development. In terms of the second part of the threshold (a site of 0.2 hectare or more), the results of a density analysis with Mid and East Antrim settlements found that sites of 0.2 hectares or more were most likely to accommodate 10 units or more.

4.6

Based on an analysis of units completed between August 2011 and March 2018 (Table 17) on sites of ten units or more, Policy HOU5 would have applied to some 2,176 units with either 10% or 20% being delivered as affordable housing depending on the location of the units i.e. in a Main/Small Town or Village/Small Settlement.

4.7

Using the same analysis of units completed between August 2011 and March 2018 on sites of ten units or more and considering some of the alternative suggestions by the representations received to the draft Plan Strategy the policy would only have applied to the following reduced numbers of units: 1. The policy should only apply when proposals meet/exceed 'major residential development threshold' (50 units/1ha+): This threshold would only have applied to 787 units 2. 1 to 20 Units – Nil 21 to 50 Units – 10%, - would have applied to 986 units 51 to 250 Units – 15% - would have applied to 737 units 250 Plus Units – 20% - would have applied to 0 units Total: 1,723 units

Table 17 Analysis of units completed by unit number August 2011 – March 2018 Unit Number of application

Number of completed applications from 1 August 2011 to 31 March 2018

Yield

1 2

78 32

78 64

112

120

25 26

3 2

75 52

144

58 74 101 130 210

1 1 1 1 1

58 74 101 130 210

Total

228

2,579

Yield of 403 units

Yield of 2,176 units

2,579

Source: Housing Monitor database - list of all completed sites between August 2011 – March 2018. The analysis does not include sites that were recorded as ongoing during this timeframe. Note the figures will include some units built before August 2011 in applications only completed between August 2011-March 2018.

Remaining land in settlements to deliver affordable housing 4.8

An analysis of potential yield for affordable housing was carried out in those settlements where NIHE HNA identified a need for social rented housing (see Table 16 above). There was particular focus in those settlements where the need was highest e.g., there was limited need in Larne and Kells/Connor.

4.9

As a starting point this analysis concentrated on potential yield from undeveloped housing zonings and urban capacity sites in these settlements (urban capacity sites at 25 per hectare (including zoned and unzoned urban capacity sites) and remaining zoned housing land (i.e. on the urban fringe or smaller than 0.2ha).

4.10

Whilst there are other sources that could contribute to meeting the social rented housing need, for example land within the urban fringe, this analysis has concentrated on the existing urban footprint as per Policy SGS5 Management of Housing Supply which focuses growth on these areas. Variety of quotas applied to the potential yields

4.11

Different quotas were applied to these yield figures to compare how much of the social rented need would be met by them e.g. Sites of 10 units or more – 10%, 15%, 20%, 25% and Sites of 5 units or more – 10%, 15%, 20% (See Table 18 overleaf) . This analysis illustrated that in some settlements, need significantly exceeds the potential yield, and in some cases there is not enough land within the current settlement limits to accommodate this need.

4.12

Further discussion with NIHE was centred on the appropriate quotas for provision and it was agreed in principle that a tailored approach would be appropriate according to the status of the settlement in the settlement hierarchy. For the main towns, initially a requirement of 25% was considered following analysis of the yield figures, however NIHE indicated that this may impact on the viability of schemes for developers and that, in their experience of area plans in other council areas, 20% would be more appropriate. It should be noted social/affordable housing policies have been introduced in the Northern Area Plan 2016 and Banbridge/Newry and Mourne Area Plan 2015. In terms of the small towns, initially a quota of 15% was considered but given there is a significant need in these settlements, it was decided that 20% would be more appropriate. Also, this would bring the quota in line with the main towns. In terms of the villages, 10% was agreed with NIHE as an appropriate quota. Small settlements were also included at the request of NIHE, although it is recognised that there are likely to be few applications in these settlements for more than 10 dwellings.

Table 18 Variety of quotas applied to potential yields Yield Yield 10% Social from from of 10+ 15% Settlement with rented need Sites Sites of 10+ units social rented need 2018-2030 5+ 10+ units (as per (Units) HOU5) units units 178 267 Ballymena 365 1,815 1,781 (49%) (73%) 99 148 Carrickfergus 518 1,016 986 (19%) (29%) 11 17 Greenisland 53 129 111 (21%) (32%) 2 3 Whitehead 45 22 16 (4%) (7%) 9 13 Ahoghill 99 89 89 (9%) (13%) 3 4 Broughshane 115 29 29 (2%) (3%) 25 38 Cullybackey 15 266 253 (167%) (253%) 33 49 Carnlough 34 355 329 (97%) (144%) 6 9 Portglenone 20 72 59 (30%) (45%) Ballystrudder Glynn

Martinstown

(as per HOU5)

356 (98%) 197 (38%) 22 (42%) 3 (7%) 18 (18%) 6 (4%) 51 (340%) 66 (194%) 12 (60%)

25% of 10+ units

10% of 5+ units

20% of 5+ units

455 (122%) 247 (48%) 28 (53%) 4 (9%) 22 (22%) 7 (6%) 63 (420%) 82 (241%) 15 (75%)

182 (50%) 102 (65%) 13 (25%) 2 (4%) 9 (9%) 3 (3%) 27 (180%) 36 (106%) 7 (35%)

363 (99%) 203 (39%) 26 (49%) 4 (9%) 18 (18%) 6 (4%) 53 (353%) 71 (209%) 14 (70%)

15 (188%)

31 (388%)

Part of 15 for Islandmagee

Cargan

20% of 10+ units

154

15 (188%)

31 (388%)

Part of 24 for Glenravel Part of 24 for Glenravel

Note: Potential yield from Urban Capacity Sites at 25dph (including zoned and unzoned urban capacity sites) and from remaining zoned housing land (i.e. on urban fringe or smaller than 0.2 hectares in the urban footprint) in main and small towns and potential yield from capacity sites at 25dph in villages in 2018.

4.13

It is recognised that the quotas in Policy HOU5 will not meet 100% of the social rented housing need. However, the justification and amplification of the policy also allows, where necessary, for a higher proportion of affordable housing to be sought at LPP stage through key site requirements attached to specific housing zonings. NIHE acknowledged that planning policy and the private sector will not necessarily meet all social rented housing need and a proportion will continue to be delivered directly through housing associations.

4.14

Affordable housing has economic benefits and is a multiplier for many areas in the market and supports the construction industry. NIHE have advised that social rented housing is typically funded through a combination of DfC grant funding, which is administered by NIHE, and a registered housing association’s own funding. Social rented housing development is controlled within financial parameters, set out by the DfC under Total Cost Indicators (TCI), an ‘all-in’ forecast on unit costs based on land and property costs from Land and Property Services. Policy HOU5 allows for housing that will be used for social renting to be purchased from the developer by a registered housing association at TCI. This typically provides a 15% profit to developers. As grants will only be payable to registered housing associations, who acquire properties from the developer; therefore, the developer should discuss proposals, TCI levels and financing with a registered housing association at an early stage in the process. Intermediate housing will also be fully funded and will provide a profit for developers. As the affordable housing units will be financed by registered housing associations, it is understood that schemes should be financially viable. In addition, the 27

provision of affordable housing will guarantee the developer certain sales, delivering a cash flow to provide finance for the market housing. 4.15

NIHE have also outlined that negotiations to reduce affordable housing requirements will only be necessary where site circumstances result in exceptional or abnormal costs. However, the presence of these issues should reduce land value. The price paid for land will not be considered in the assessment of viability, rather land value will be the current value as independently calculated. It is only at this point that viability should be considered and this would require the applicant to provide a full viability appraisal of the submitted proposal. As such, viability will be a material consideration during the processing of the application. The exact mechanism and considerations may be contained in supplementary planning guidance.

4.16

It is considered that the policy provides adequate flexibility. It allows for consideration of affordable housing on a case-by-case basis dependant on the need (including mix of social rented/intermediate housing) in a particular settlement based on the up-to-date Housing Needs Assessment. In circumstances where the number of affordable housing units required by this policy would exceed the need identified by NIHE, a lower number of units will be acceptable.

Policy HOU7 Adaptable and Accessible Homes 4.17

The following section sets out further evidence to support the criteria of Policy HOU7 Adaptable and Accessible Homes. For ease of reference, the five criteria are set out below: Policy Criteria of Policy HOU7 Adaptable and Accessible Homes a) Where a dwelling has car parking within its individual plot boundary, at least one parking space should be capable of enlargement to achieve a minimum width of 3300mm. Where communal parking is proposed at least two out of every 20 spaces should have a width of 3300mm. b) Dining areas and living rooms should allow space for turning a wheelchair. c) A living room/living space will normally be expected to be provided on the entrance level of every dwelling. d) The principal window in the principal living space should be sited to enable outlook when seated. e) An accessible bathroom, which allows space for turning a wheelchair, should be provided on the same floor as the main bedroom.

4.18

NIHE have advised that there is limited recent research on the costs of Lifetime Homes properties in NI. “Raising Accessibility Standards for New Homes” (Department for Communities and Local Government, 2020) estimated that the cost of building to M4 (2) Accessible and Adaptable Dwellings and M4 (3) Wheelchair User Dwellings, similar to Lifetime Homes standard, for a 3-bedroom property was £1,400 more than the current minimum standard in England (M4 (1) Visitable dwellings). Housing Made for Everyone (HoME) Coalition1 states, “Additional costs over that of a three-bedroom semi-detached home built to the current baseline standard is £521 with a further space cost of £866. This is a very small percentage of the price of a home on the market. Crucially, were all homes built to the same higher standard this would level the playing field and lower the average additional cost to developers”.

4.19

The most significant factor influencing costs was whether the home had been designed to incorporate Lifetime Homes Standards from the outset or whether a standard design had been modified. Given that those elements of the Lifetime Homes Standards which have been incorporated into Policy HOU7 are not onerous, it is not anticipated that this policy would have significant additional cost implications.

Methodology for analysing the impact of Policy HOU7 criteria on approved applications 4.20

4.21

To consider any potential impact on the viability of dwellings from Policy HOU7, the criteria of this policy was applied to a random selection of approved applications. The purpose of which was to ascertain if any of the criteria in the policy were already being met in current dwelling designs, and if not how much adaption would be required. To make the analysis as broad as possible, with the resources available, a random selection of approved applications for single dwellings and dwellings within larger residential developments were selected as follows:

Single dwellings (Table 19): Applications were randomly selected to take account of both those inside settlement limits and those in the open countryside. Two different time periods (those approved during 2015/2016 and those approved in 2019/2020); to include a geographical spread across the Borough (settlements from each of three former Boroughs); to include those from different tiers of the settlement hierarchy (main towns, small towns, villages and open countryside) and a variety of dwelling types (detached/semi-detached, one and two storey). The breakdown was as follows:

The HoME Coalition was founded by the Centre for Ageing Better, Habinteg, Age UK, RIBA, Care & Repair England, Disability Rights UK, Housing LIN, the National Housing Federation, the Chartered Institute of Housing and the Town and Country Planning Association

 

4.22

Two dwellings from settlements in each of Ballymena/Carrickfergus/Larne former Boroughs (one from a main town and one from a small town or village) approved in 2015/2016 – total of 6, and a further 6 approved in 2019/20. Two dwellings from countryside in each of Ballymena/Carrickfergus/Larne former Boroughs approved in 2015/2016 – total of 6, and a further 6 approved in 2019/20. Total: 24

Dwellings within larger residential developments (Table 20): Applications approved between 2016-2020 were randomly selected to take account of the size of the residential development (large (50 and over units), medium (11-49 units) and small (2-10 units)); the geographical spread across the Borough (settlements from each of three former Boroughs) and a variety of dwelling types (detached/semi-detached/apartments). The breakdown was as follows:  One dwelling each from Ballymena town, Carrickfergus town and Larne town from a large residential development  One dwelling each from Ballymena town, Carrickfergus town and Larne town from a medium residential development  One dwelling each from Ballymena town, Carrickfergus town and Larne town from a small residential development Total: 9 Findings

4.23

Criteria a) – e) of Policy HOU7, as outlined above was then applied to each of the 33 dwellings selected. All of the dwellings randomly selected had the capacity to meet criteria b) – e) of the proposed policy. When measuring turning spaces in living rooms/dining rooms, where furniture was shown (chairs/tables), it was considered that these could be reasonably moved a small distance on a permanent basis if required to allow for wheelchair turning.

4.24

When measuring if bathrooms can accommodate a 1500mm turning circle the bath was set aside as it was considered that this could be removed and a level shower fitted. It was also considered that the door could open outwards. These measurements and considerations are set out in the Lifetimes Homes standards.

4.25

In regards to criterion a) in relation to parking standards seven of the 33 dwellings (21%) failed to meet the proposed policy requirements. The majority of these dwellings were located in residential developments. For larger residential developments, plot sizes are more uniform and generally car parking spaces could only reasonably be enlarged to 3200mm within the current layout. For some housing developments which included apartments, wheelchair accessible parking was provided as part of the scheme. For single dwellings in settlements and in the countryside the capability of enlarging at least one parking space can usually be met due to the plot sizes and driveways being larger. Conclusion

4.26

The above evidence shows that in most residential schemes the criteria in Policy HOU7 Adaptable and Accessible Homes are already being met. In the majority of cases applying the proposed policy should therefore not impact on viability. For those developments that currently do not have the capacity to meet criterion a) regarding parking, this should only require minor design solutions to the overall layout of the scheme to meet the requirements. The aim of the policy is to formalize the inclusion of the criteria in Policy HOU7 in all residential schemes. Any minor additional costs per dwelling are considered to be outweighed by the wider significant social benefits, such as the avoidance of expensive adaptations at a later stage. In addition, paragraph 8.1.47 of the justification and amplification of Policy HOU7 offers the flexibility to address potentially constrained sites in exceptional circumstances.

Table 19 Criteria a) – e) of Policy HOU7 applied to a random selection of approved single dwellings across Mid and East Antrim Policy HOU7 Criteria Location

Ballymena Main Town

Ballymena Small Towns

Larne Main Town

Larne Villages

Carrickfergus Main Town

Carrickfergus Small Towns

Year Approved

Planning Ref

2019/20

LA02/2019/0288/F

2015/16

LA02/2015/0555/F

2015/16

LA02/2020/0277/RM (Ahoghill) LA02/2016/1017/F (Broughshane)

2019/20

LA02/2018/1061/F

2015/16

LA02/2016/0562/F

2019/20

2015/16

LA02/2019/0699/F (Ballygalley) LA02/2015/0605/F (Carnlough)

2019/20

LA02/2018/0048/F

2015/16

LA02/2016/0090/RM

2019/20

LA02/2018/0923/F (Greenisland)

2015/16

LA02/2015/0581/F (Greenisland)

LA02/2020/0126/F

LA02/2019/0609/RM

LA02/2016/0852/RM

LA02/2015/0641/RM

LA02/2018/1146/F

LA02/2019/0133/F

LA02/2016/0257/F

LA02/2015/0074/RM

LA02/2019/0409/F

LA02/2018/0740/RM

LA02/2016/0023/F

LA02/2015/0243/F

2019/20

2019/20 Ballymena Countryside 2015/16

2019/20 Larne Countryside 2015/16

2019/20 Carrickfergus Countryside 2015/16

Table 20 Criteria a) – e) of Policy HOU7 applied to a random selection of approved dwellings within larger residential developments across Mid and East Antrim Policy HOU7 Criteria Location

Planning Ref

Ballymena Main Town (Large Development)

LA02/2018/0146/RM

Ballymena Main Town (Medium Development)

LA02/2016/0048/F

Ballymena Main Town (Small Development)

LA02/2019/0290/F

Larne Main Town (Large Development)

LA02/2017/1113/F (apartments)

Larne Main Town (Medium Development)

LA02/2016/0787/F

Larne Main Town (Small Development)

LA02/2020/0032/F

Carrickfergus Main Town (Large Development)

LA02/2016/0919/F (apartments)

Carrickfergus Main Town (Medium Development)

LA02/2016/0906/F (apartments)

Carrickfergus Main Town (Small Development)

LA02/2018/0501/F

Local Development Plan Team Silverwood Business Park 190 Raceview Road Ballymena BT42 4HZ Tel: 028 2563 3500 planning@midandeastantrim.gov.uk

Local Development Plan 2030 Further Evidence Report - Housing March 2021

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2.0 Update on Survey Work and Studies Informing the Evidence Base for Housing