THE MOBILITY ISSUE
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Welcome... ...to the Q2 2017 issue of Automotive Megatrends Magazine.
The automotive OEMs – the original providers of individual mobility – dominated personal transportation for the best part of a century. In recent years, however, they appeared to be losing control to tech companies and innovative service providers. But now they're back: spurred on by ambitious and entrepreneurial leadership, renewed urgency and some considerable help from advances in connected car technology, the OEMs look set to play a leading role in the mobility services revolution. The word mobility is synonymous with the car. Now it’s up to the OEMs to make their names synonymous with mobility. Can they do it?
Martin Kahl, Editor
Welcome
Automotive Megatrends Magazine ISSN: 2053 776X Publisher: Automotive Megatrends Ltd 1-3 Washington Buildings Stanwell Road, Penarth CF64 2AD, UK www.automotivemegatrends.com T: +44 (0) 2920 707 021 support@automotivemegatrends.com Registered number: 08000516 VAT number: GB 171 5423 23 Managing Director: Gareth Davies Editor: Martin Kahl Contributors: Arie Bleijenberg Freddie Holmes Indraneel Bardhan Isabelle Rio-Lopes Lisa Jerram Magnus Gerisch Megan Lampinen Michael Nash Remy Pothet Xavier Boucherat Production: Anmol Mothy
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Contents
OEMs - The original mobility service providers
12 18
Speed – it’s what drives mobility
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15 28
Prepare to enter the age of shared mobility
33
To transform mobility, just DRIVE!
AV deployment - so far, yet so near
Autonomous synonymous with connectivity by 2025
It's time to push connected cars right to the edge
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Automotive Megatrends Magazine
36 40
The connected car: prepare for mass disruption
46
Contents
38 42
OEMs must shift gears in their approach to cyber security
48
The ultimate challenge: create vehicles that enable creativity
India - prime target for smart mobility
51
48V - the solution to the advanced eďŹƒciency challenge?
Safety and security: the core of critical system design
56
No car unconnected – talking points from Connected Car California 2017
V2V and the Cloud - essential for platooning
Appeal of seamless transportation drives urban mobility evolution
Fuel economy strategies to trump regulatory uncertainty
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Rethinking mobility
Speed – it’s what drives mobility Arie Bleijenberg, author of New Mobility, considers the role of the car in the evolution of future mobility ny contemporary discussion about the future of mobility will be heavily laden with terms such as smart mobility, autonomous driving and mobility as a service. These IT-driven innovations will undoubtedly create progress, but the ‘old’ driving forces behind mobility will also have a considerable impact on mobility growth in the coming decades. This article focuses on some of the developments that are already emerging.
A
A ‘car world’
In Western Europe, it was as early as the 1950s that cars took over from public transport as the most frequently used means of transportation. Since then, the volume of car traffic has increased tenfold, while cycling and public transport have seen scarcely any growth. The private car is now by far the predominant means of transportation, accounting for three-quarters of all passenger mobility. Before the car, rail was the favoured mode of transportation. The rail era lasted for 80 years, from around 1850 to 1930, and for many decades it provided more than 80% of our mobility. What, then, can history tell us about the future – will the car era last forever, or will there be a shift to another dominant mode of transportation? In search of an answer, this article takes as a starting point the driving forces behind the tremendous growth in mobility since the early 19th Century. At that time, almost everyone only ever walked; now, people travel on average more than 40 kilometres (25 miles) per day using a variety of transport means. Interest here lies in our understanding of the forces shaping our mobility patterns.
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In the 1990s, the negative side of mass car use – pollution, collisions and congestion – generated societal and political worries. Attempts were made to slow down or even halt car growth. Despite these widely supported intentions, road traffic continued to grow unabated. Clearly, the power of the forces driving our mobility was underestimated.
Speed What lies behind the car’s enormous success? Affordability and comfort obviously play a major role, but it could be argued that the single most important contributing factor is speed. After all, speed is what it’s all about when it comes to mobility. From Point A to Point B, the car is almost always faster than
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Rethinking mobility other modes of transportation. Only on the shortest trips is it faster to cycle – particularly in towns and cities, where car speeds are generally slow. For longer distances within urban districts, and for links between city centres, the metro or train may be quicker door-todoor. But public transport is very rarely faster than today’s car journeys and on most trips, public transport takes at least twice as long. The relatively high speed of door-to-door travel is the main reason why cars account for three-quarters of our transport movements.
Figure 1: Average daily travel distance in km per person for the Dutch population 1950 – 2012 50
40
30
Total Car
Public Transport Cycling
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The huge importance of speed emerges clearly from transport history, which can be regarded as a continual decline in ‘friction of distance’. Until the industrial revolution, travel speeds were relatively slow and had not increased for many centuries: 5kph (3mph) on foot, and 8 to 15kph by horse and carriage, horsedrawn barge and sailing ship. At 30kph, the steam train was a major step forward and signalled a fairly abrupt end for the slower barge. Electric trains were even faster, and after the construction of motorway networks from the 1960s onwards, the speed of the car also shot up. With the emergence of buses and cars, the horse and carriage faded into history. Today, the car takes us from door to door at an average speed of 40 to 45kph. Hence, speed is the strongest factor driving mobility. Surprisingly enough, higher speed does not mean that we save time, because what we gain from greater speed travelled is greater distance travelled. Large groups of people travel a similar and constant amount of time per day, every day: roughly 1.1 hours per person, on average. This average is independent of income levels; the average was as true in previous centuries as it is today; and it holds true in most conurbation types, in most parts of the world. This ‘law of constant travel time’ has an inevitable consequence: faster transport leads to mobility growth.
Aviation
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0 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Source: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 2014
The car system is now mature
the growth of car traffic. This is a logical upshot of ‘the law of constant travel times’. Throughout the 1970s and 1980s, car traffic grew at around 4% annually, while today that figure is less than 1%, with a further decline to zero under way. The statistical data presented in Figure 1 underlines the rise and subsequent stabilisation of car use. Per capita car mobility in the EU is now at the same level as it was a decade ago. From now on, only population growth leads to increased car traffic.
Average car speeds continued to increase until the end of the last century. This was due mainly to the construction and extension of motorway grids, where driving speeds are far higher than on urban and secondary roads. Because of the high attainable speeds, motorways attracted high volumes of traffic, causing average car speeds to rise. In wealthy regions where motorway grids are now largely in place, average car speeds are no longer rising and have settled at around 45kph. No further car speed increases are expected, and in all probability, the average speed will even decrease marginally in the coming decades, as urbanisation continues across Europe.
The sky’s the limit
The end of the growth of car mobility does not mean the end of two centuries of pronounced growth in mobility; the baton will be passed to aviation, as can be seen from the data presented in Figure 1. For some time now, air travel has been the fastest growing means of transport and already accounts in Western Europe for around 20% of passenger mobility in terms of kilometres travelled. These are
The fact that the average car speed has not increased in 20 years in Western European countries has virtually halted any rise in travel distances and, with it,
Table 1: Typical mobility patterns for urban and rural areas Metropolis
Major City
Rural Areas
Average trip distance
5 km
10 km
15 km
Average commuting distance
10 km
15 km
20 km
Average travel speed
15 km/h
25 km/h
35 km/h
Average car speed
20 km/h
35 km/h
50 km/h
15%
50%
70%
10 km/day
25 km/day
35 km/day
Trip share of car Car-kilometres
Source: Bleijenberg 2017
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Rethinking mobility Figure 2: Average daily travel distance in km per person for the population of Western Europe 2010-2050
Source: Bleijenberg 2017
considered kilometres travelled abroad, particularly in overseas air space. This is why kilometres flown do not yet feature in national mobility statistics and mobility forecasts, and are not yet an integral part of mobility policy. The strong growth in aviation is another expression of our desire for speed. At an average door-to-door speed in the range of 250kph, air travel is much faster than travelling by car, despite the often long waiting times at airports. And because people will spend more time flying, their time for car driving will diminish somewhat, this being a consequence of the ‘law of constant travel time’. In 2050, this will equate to only a few minutes, equivalent to 10% less time spent travelling by car.
Urbanisation
The wave of urbanisation affecting most countries will also change our travel behaviour. The UN expects that in 2050, 82% of the European population will live in cities, an increase of 10% since 2010. Due to the proximity of other activities and the low average car speed, people in large cities now travel more by bicycle and rail than their counterparts in the countryside or in smaller towns. The combination of shorter trip distances and different mode choices results in a reduction in car mileage for city-dwellers of 30% or more. In fact, large cities can only become accessible – and thus have a thriving economy – with the combination of roads, rail and cycling, as can be seen the world over. Table 1 presents a summary overview of the
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marked differences in mobility patterns between urban and rural areas. Interestingly, the new wave of urbanisation is partly to achieve an outcome similar to that of the desire for travel speed. Both contribute to better accessibility, namely the opportunity to engage in different activities in different locations. Short distances improve accessibility; higher speed does the same. Cities have, in general, better accessibility than rural areas, because the proximity of different activities outweighs the low average travel speed in urban areas. This makes cities attractive for both companies and people, despite the mostly congested roads. The continued rural-urban migration proves the unwavering attraction of the city.
Towards 2050
Building on the desire for speed as the main driving force behind mobility growth, and combining this with ongoing urbanisation, a projection can be made for the year 2050. Figure 2 shows projected mobility for people in Western Europe. Car mobility stays roughly aligned with current levels, mainly because the average car speed will not increase further in countries with mature motorway grids. By around 2050, people in several Western European countries will be travelling more kilometres by air than by car. Today this may be hard to imagine, but if European aviation continues to grow by 3% to 4% annually, with car travel scarcely growing at all, the maths
is simple: in 30 to 40 years’ time, air travel will have replaced the car as the dominant mode of transport. Simply extrapolating current trends through to 2050 results in the changed mobility behaviour shown in Figure 2. Slowly but surely, spatial developments will also come to adapt to one of the defining characteristics of a rise in air travel: mass transit from a small number of airports. Another inevitable consequence: further urbanisation around major airports.
Rethinking mobility
Clearly, major change is in the air. Car transport will soon no longer be growing in wealthy countries with a mature motorway grid, the knowledge economy is turning major cities into the main motors of economic prosperity, and the pace of urbanisation is accelerating. This is where contacts, innovation, enterprise, employment and economic growth all take place. With all these changes afoot, we need to think differently about mobility. The old narrative was shaped during previous decades of industrialisation and the emergence of private car transport. In the book New Mobility – Beyond the car era, this writer develops a new mobility narrative which reflects the changes that are currently under way. Rethinking mobility is necessary if we are to understand these changes. The new narrative forms the basis for a mobility policy that works – one that invigorates the economy and improves our environment. What used to seem logical is no longer necessarily so today.
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Future mobility: perfect for sharing
Prepare to enter the age of shared mobility
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Lisa Jerram, Principal Research Analyst at Navigant Research, looks at the opportunities for OEMs, service providers and other stakeholders as the sharing economy shapes future mobility business models
he advent of connectivity has been a boon to new mobility services. Car-sharing programmes, like Zipcar, and ridehailing platforms such as Uber, are the highest profile of the new mobility services that have proliferated in the past decade, thanks to increased connectivity.
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But we are really only at the beginning of the era of connected mobility. As shared mobility and connectivity trends converge with the move toward zeroemission vehicles – battery electric and potentially also fuels cells – and autonomous driving, a range of new mobility options become possible. These have the potential to create richer, more diverse, and more individually tailored transportation services. They also have the potential to encourage more travel via passenger cars, which could increase congestion or emissions, and consequently encourage greater suburban sprawl. But, while much of the automotive sector seems pointed in the direction of developing autonomous shared mobility services, the pathway there will not be simple or without potential roadblocks.
Car-sharing
If we look at the evolution of new mobility services to date, they have mostly been a phenomenon of developed countries. Car-sharing, which in fact predates the advent of connectivity, is the most mature of the shared mobility offerings and is most widespread in markets where private
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As of 2016, Navigant Research estimates that there were around 2 million car-sharing members in North America, and 3 million in Europe – most of them in Western Europe
vehicle ownership is already widespread, like North America and Europe. Traffic and limited parking availability, combined with the cost of owning and maintaining a car, have made shared mobility an attractive alternative to owning a car in these regions. As of 2016, Navigant Research estimates that there were around 2 million car-sharing members in North America, and 3 million in Europe – most of them in Western Europe. However, the market for conventional round-trip style car-sharing services is giving way to a new service that has opened up new growth potential in these markets. One-way car-sharing is a
service type that leverages last minute, or impulse, mobility needs, rather than planned needs and is enabled by the ubiquity of connectivity. One-way services are more likely to be used in a similar fashion as ride-hailing apps – in response to an immediate need and as a way to travel in and around a city. Because of this convenience of use, thanks to the ability to access the service at the click of an app, carsharing membership has seen significant new growth. Much of this innovation has been driven by vehicle manufacturers who are embracing connectivity to open up new market opportunities and service
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Future mobility: perfect for sharing
Car-sharing, which in fact predates the advent of connectivity, is the most mature of the shared mobility offerings and is most widespread in markets where private vehicle ownership is already widespread, like North America and Europe
models. Daimler and BMW have been at the forefront of one-way car-share services and have secured millions of members in their car-share programmes. One reason that OEMs have been able to spur such dramatic growth is their ability to make the significant upfront investment needed to launch a car-share service in such a way that it has an immediate impact.
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This trend has the potential to shift carsharing away from the start-up or non-profit model that launched the industry toward a smaller number of multinational players with deep pockets. OEMs are the most obvious example, but in Europe and Japan, other
companies such as rental car agencies and parking management companies are major players in car-sharing. For rental car companies, over time, conventional daily rental services could give way to car-sharing services, with traditional car rental programmes focused on providing longer-term and longer-range trips. For vehicle manufacturers, car-sharing will increasingly be used as a way to funnel certain types of cars – primarily fuel efficient, electric-powered and autonomous – and many OEMs will operate these transportation services themselves as a way to offset reductions in revenue due to falling sales in urban
For rental car companies, over time, conventional daily rental services could give way to car-sharing services, with traditional car rental programmes focused on providing longerterm and longer-range trips
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areas. Use of these more efficient but higher cost vehicles in shared transportation services is likely to see higher penetration than the general population and can be justified by operators based on lower total cost of ownership (TCO). Individual customers tend to overlook TCO in favour of lower acquisition cost, especially in markets like the US where fuel prices are low.
Autonomous cars, intriguing opportunities
But the major innovation in shared mobility services would come with integrating autonomous vehicles. Autonomous vehicles will be able to position themselves where needed, largely eliminating the distinction between one-way and round-trip services in urban areas. Analysis of passenger movement data will also help these fleets to preemptively position vehicles where they will be needed, enhancing digital assistant systems that project what time a person should leave based on their location and calendar. Expanding this concept on a broad scale will virtually ensure that a vehicle will be in place when needed. And mobility services for both goods as well as people may increasingly be provided by autonomous vehicles in urban areas. The advent of autonomous shared mobility fleets opens up some intriguing new business model possibilities. For example, a flat-price autonomous
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Future mobility: perfect for sharing
Car-sharing will increasingly be used to funnel certain types of cars – primarily fuel efficient, electric-powered and autonomous – and many OEMs will operate transportation services themselves to offset reductions in revenue due to falling sales
mobility service could be attractive to consumers rather than maintaining relationships with a vehicle dealer, fuelling network, mechanic, and insurance provider. If the consumer has additional travel modes available – including public transit or bike-sharing – that would further speed adoption of this new paradigm. In order for this service model to be viable, small-footprint autonomous vehicles that can be summoned as needed will have to be connected. The same logistics improvements that make vehicles available to riders when needed will keep idle time to a minimum and significantly increase the utilisation rate. The same technology can also be used to request larger vehicles when needed to carry groups of people or cargo. Mobility services for both goods and people within urban areas may increasingly be provided by autonomous vehicles. In addition, battery EVs have a clear advantage in this type of service model, if they can be equipped for wireless recharging. A vehicle with a wireless charging capability could auto-drive to a wireless charging parking space, selfpark in the space, and automatically begin recharging – all without the need for a driver. When the consumer does need the vehicle, a vehicle summon feature could call the vehicle to leave the charging space and drive itself to meet and pick up the consumer. This potential for a seamless transition between
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occupied and unoccupied states is a critical enabler for a fully automated future.
Region-specific
The types of new mobility solutions will not be universal across markets. There are so many potential avenues to take the combination of autonomous electric shared mobility that there is likely to a be a diverse, and individualised, set of solutions created based on regional needs and infrastructure capability. The types of solutions will not even be universal within companies. For example, in Germany, Daimler launched Moovel, a fully self-contained smartphone app that provides the best travel options for a particular travel destination and time, and in some cases allows payment for the chosen trip mode right within the app. In the US, the Moovel team is offering up a solution that allows any app developer to add trip planning to their own app. Peugeot is offering electric commercial vehicles through a car-share service in Europe, while in the US, the company is testing out an airport-based car-share service. This strategy of trialling two different approaches to a market solution is increasingly being adopted by large companies. Essentially, such organisations establish internal competitors to keep testing new solutions or product options and to
ensure continued relevance in a rapidly changing marketplace.
Unintended consquences
This advanced mobility landscape may have some unintended negative consequences, however. Firstly, as is indicated by the level of engagement by OEMs, these types of services are complex and costly. They likely require the resources of a large corporation, like a vehicle manufacturer, to handle the investment costs as well as the ability to insure these complicated systems and withstand any regulatory challenges. It may become more challenging for small start-ups to compete in this environment. There is also the potential for fuel consumption and congestion to increase with the advent of these services as mobility becomes available to a larger segment of the population. Navigant Research’s analysis has suggested that in a high-penetration scenario for automated mobility services, both vehicle miles travelled and fuel consumption will rise slightly. These changes could be offset by the shift to electric vehicles in these automated shared mobility services. This is a challenge that policymakers and regulators will face when making longterm transportation plans and in working with companies looking to establish these services in cities across North America and Europe.
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Smart mobility incubator
To transform mobility, just DRIVE! Vehicle manufacturers join car rental and telematics expertise in a new initiative to support start-ups developing business models and technologies for future smart mobility. Megan Lampinen talks to Boaz Mamo, co-founder and CEO of Tel Aviv-based DRIVE
srael has become a hotbed of entrepreneurial activity around smart mobility, turning out the likes of Mobileye, Waze and Gett, and many others. About 400 others, by recent estimates. But start-ups alone cannot effect an industry transformation.
I
to obtain that knowledge from our partners and from our own experience," he explained.
To do that requires support, collaboration and cross-sector cooperation. Enter DRIVE, the recently established smart mobility innovation centre in Tel Aviv. Launched by Mayer Group, which made its name as a local importer and transportation supplier, DRIVE counts among its founding members the car rental specialist Hertz, Israeli telematics company Ituran, Honda and Volvo Cars.
Specifically, DRIVE aims to nurture promising start-ups and foster relationships between them and established players in the transport industry. "The first thing is to choose the right start-ups, some of which are not even in the field of transportation. Some of these start-ups are companies from industries such as health or delivery, which have nothing to do with transportation but could have a relevance," Mamo told Megatrends.
"We have many start-ups in Israel in the field of transportation, but Israel doesn't have any industry,” commented Boaz Mamo, co-founder and Chief Executive of DRIVE. “In Israel, you never produce a car. You do not have big companies that deal with automotive and transportation. Many of these global companies are looking for innovation and the question is how to create this bridge.” Bringing the two together could yield big benefits. "We see many new, very talented entrepreneurs in Israel, but they have no clue how this world of transportation works, what they need to look at, what they need to think about. DRIVE is trying to help those companies
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More than just matchmaking
Later stages of the DRIVE initiative involve educating the start-ups on the machinations of the automotive industry and how general entrepreneurship works. "Here you will have workshops and events around how to build a company - legal, accounting, business consulting, etc, " he explained. "After the company has a product and knows how to work, then we start to do the matchmaking. This means helping the right start-ups to work with the right corporate body." Just like a dating couple, potential partners need time to get to know each other and that is what Boaz and his team seek to facilitate. "You need to
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Smart mobility incubator
Hertz is a global company with international spread. When the industry moves to autonomous driving, they already have the knowledge of maintaining fleets so it will be easier for them to deploy that kind of service very quickly - Boaz Mamo, DRIVE
create opportunities for them to know each other, and you need to create opportunities that are relevant for both sides. You need to find the right interactions.” The first meeting is like a first date, he suggested. "You need to create the right atmosphere and the right environment for them to meet and talk about the right topics. After that, you need to build the right systems that will enable them to continue to interact. To get one date is easy, but the hardest work is to maintain that relationship."
Levels of commitment
DRIVE offers three different programmes: Co-working space, FastLane and Prototype lab. Each of these represents a different level of commitment from the participating companies. "In the shared workspace, there is no commitment. You can come here, start to know each other. It is like moving in together before marrying," Mamo commented. FastLane marks the second level of commitment, where there are more intensive interactions between the companies, with the emergence of plans to make something more sustainable. The Prototyping lab offers partners the opportunity to commit to building something together. "It is a whole process of building trust, of building an understanding of the product, of building relationships," he added.
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Trying to change the world DRIVE's aims are ambitious. "When you work in transportation, you really can change the world. Transportation is critical and can change the way our economy works. Moving people from one place to another changed the world in the industrial revolution. People could move to suburbs and could work in other locations. The economic growth was tremendous," he pointed out. The impact of autonomous driving and the shared economy, and the subsequent new business models, will change people’s lives. "For us, the programme is a way of helping this change to happen and to improve transportation, with better
services so that everyone will have safer, more secure, less polluting, cheaper services in every aspect of transportation. I know it sounds like a big ambition, but we really are trying to make it happen," Mamo said.
A good fit It is a modest effort at the moment, with just seven companies involved from an initial screening of 40. Interest has been remarkable, said Mamo, with a very high number of applications. When it comes to companies that would make a good fit with DRIVE, Mamo and his colleagues are looking first for great teams. "We want people that are really ambitious, and looking for something they can change, that they can push forward. The second thing we look for is good ideas, and people that are trying to solve big problems. After that we’ll look for new technologies," he explained. The vehicle manufacturers are represented – for now – by Volvo Car
and Honda. Car rental giant Hertz has also joined. "Hertz can be a very interesting and central player in the new mobility world," said Mamo. "If you think about the new world of transportation, cars will be autonomous. Many of them,
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Smart mobility incubator
We want people that are really ambitious, and looking for something they can change, that they can push forward. The second thing we look for is good ideas, and people that are trying to solve big problems. After that we’ll look for new technologies - Boaz Mamo, DRIVE
perhaps most, will be shared and not privately owned. Hertz is a global company with international spread. When the industry moves to autonomous driving, they already have the knowledge of maintaining fleets so it will be easier for them to deploy that kind of service very quickly."
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Offering the Hertz perspective, Group President Michel Taride commented on the challenge for a well-established company when it comes to adopting
new trends. "The whole challenge is how to integrate a new technology in a legacy company like ours," he told Megatrends. "For an old big global company, how do you transform? Do you do it through an R&D department? Do you do it by having an internal lab or by acquiring a company? With an incubator like this, you show your trust and at the same time you influence these people to look at start-ups. They make the investments, and then you can almost pick and choose."
When you work in transportation, you really can change the world. Transportation is critical and can change the way our economy works - Boaz Mamo, DRIVE
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Taride runs Hertz International, but he emphasised the company-wide effort being put forth. "I make sure that I get the buy-in at the most senior level, CEO level, in our company because otherwise it becomes someone's pet project and nothing happens, and that would be foolish."
Everyone’s a winner
Besides location, it is the cutting edge smart mobility technology, the focus on networking and collaboration, and the development of meaningful long-term partnerships between well-established companies and start-ups, which appears – on paper at least – to be the perfect mix for innovation in this area. DRIVE gives partners the opportunity to feed ideas and requirements into the programme; the DRIVE start-ups work on those ideas and all parties benefit. But make no mistake, this is no easy way for Honda and Volvo to syphon ideas at others’ expense; both already have their own initiatives for developing cutting edge technologies, and appropriately high benchmarks and expectations. Honda’s Xcelerator ‘is a global scale open innovation program designed to facilitate collaboration between early stage technology startups and Honda’; and Volvo is already pushing the envelope on various megatrends, with electric car development, its Drive Me public road
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Smart mobility incubator autonomous driving test programme in Gothenburg and soon also London, collaborations with Autoliv (autonomous driving software) and Uber (autonomous ride-sharing fleets), and renewed interest in Sunfleet, its car sharing and mobility services strategy that has been running since 1998. Were a FastLane start-up to show promise, its ideas would be nurtured, but beyond the financial and infrastructure support offered by the programme, any investment would take place outside DRIVE. Indeed, the DRIVE website makes it clear that ‘DRIVE is not an investment entity. However, DRIVE has an exclusive partnership with an early stage fund called Next Gear fund, which can provide very generous deal terms to
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country’s military expertise. Mamo has his own suggestions. "For me, there are two things that make Israel such a big leader here. If you look at the fields where Israel excels, they are the fields where Israel was struggling." Agriculture is one example - Israel does not have much land so it had to invent new agricultural solutions. There was a similar challenge with water. "I think it is from struggle and from hard times in different aspects that you create innovation," he noted. There is also a positive approach to learning from failure in the country. "In Israel, failing is not a bad word. Failing is a good thing. It is seen as experience," Mamo commented. The key is to implement the learnings from failure into
For an old big global company, how do you transform? With an incubator like this, you show your trust and at the same time you influence these people to look at start-ups. They make the investments, and then you can almost pick and choose - Michel Taride,Hertz International
strong DRIVE FastLane companies.’ DRIVE will, however, promote the programme’s best ideas to investors in Israel and the US.
Something about Israel
Considering the level of innovation coming out of Israel at present, it is not exactly surprising that the country would produce an initiative such as DRIVE. There are many theories on why the atmosphere there is so conducive to innovation, many of which tie in with the
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the next venture to make it a success. "Many things are creating this atmosphere of innovation and change, and it's a great vibe to be part of this ecosystem," he added. To make it into the DRIVE programme, start-ups need to come with a unique value proposition from a list of suggested areas of expertise that reads like a Megatrends magazine contents page. Israel has already proven it can produce highly valued electronics talent; now it’s over to DRIVE to nurture such talent for future mobility business models.
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Mobility: the OEM perspective
OEMs - The original mobility service providers Martin Kahl considers the role of the OEMs in the provision of mobility services, and talks to PSA and VW about breaking into a multi-billion dollar industry
S$8tr – that’s as much as the mobility services industry could be worth, according to top automotive OEM executives.
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In a speech about the automotive industry of the future, the now retired Ford Motor Company Chief Executive, Mark Fields said in 2016 that the mobility services industry – which includes ride-sharing, ride-hailing, bike-sharing and taxis – could be worth US$5.4tr; more recently, Dr Ian Robertson, BMW Group Board Member for Sales and Marketing said it could be worth around US$3trn more.
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That considerable additional revenue comes from all of the mobility activities transactions made far out of reach of the OEMs, despite involving the vehicles made by those same OEMs. How the traditional automotive industry – which Fields and Robertson have valued at around US$2trn – can benefit from this additional revenue really is the multitrillion dollar question. To be in with a chance of tapping into such riches requires a new way of thinking for the mainstream OEMs, which have been scrambling their resources to
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Mobility: the OEM perspective develop mobility services business strategies, often even involving the creation of dedicated sub-brands. How this differs from just a few years ago is interesting. For a while, it appeared the OEMs were in danger of missing out on lucrative new downstream opportunities having given up, a decade or so earlier, on the idea of making money downstream; a succession of failed attempts at generating profit from vehicle servicing and car rental saw OEMs divest their downstream businesses as streamlining became the order of the day. With OEMs concentrating on building and selling cars, the future of any other business seemed to lie in the hands of technology companies such as Apple, Amazon, Google and Uber. Were they to have been successful in controlling the mobility space, one could easily have imagined the OEMs – the companies once seen as the disruptors – being the disrupted, and ending up as mere contract manufacturers, building vehicles to specifications provided by those tech companies.
Downstream lies danger – and opportunity
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Led in part by necessity, in part by ambitious and visionary C-suite executives, in part by a need to retake control, and in equal measure by a technical ability to do so facilitated by hitherto unachievable levels of connectivity, the vehicle manufacturers fought back. New business models began to take shape, ideas from elsewhere began to be mapped onto the automotive industry and the rise of the sharing
Launched in December 2016, and operated as an independent company, Moia is VW Group’s 13th brand. Headed by Chief Executive Ole Harms, Moia has been tasked with becoming ‘one of the world’s leading mobility service providers by 2025’
economy appeared to mark the end of an era for an industry so reliant on brand loyalty, personalisation, customer conquest and customer retention. But how has this transformation come about? And how do they go from what they have today to something they can call a success?
New ideas, new subbrands
The OEMs may appear to be back in the race, but to truly take control requires considerable strategic realignment. In its report, ‘Remodeling for mobility’, EY says OEMs need to rethink their strategy to succeed: ‘When starting from an incumbent position, automakers will not out-innovate disruptors unless they view their own legacy business as an enemy. They will succeed only by confronting their old modes of operating, overcoming inherent constraints and shaking up their businesses.’
We’re very mindful of the trends towards the shared economy. In the near future, we might find ourselves selling a suite of transportation services, in lieu of today’s traditional vehicle sale - Mike Tinskey, Ford Motor Company
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2016 saw a series of OEM sub-brands launched primarily to house not only innovative new powertrain technologies but also new mobility services and other left-field ideas not immediately natural to the traditional automotive industry. At the 2016 Paris Motor Show, Daimler launched EQ, PSA Group launched Free2Move, and the Volkswagen Group announced a 13th brand, Moia, to operate as a mobility services brand. Geely has launched Caocao, a ridehailing activity positioned upmarket with a B2C focus and a 6,000 strong fleet of so-called new energy vehicles (NEVs). The Renault-Nissan Alliance recently established a 300-strong start-up division to focus on core technologies for connected cars and new mobility services; it acquired French software company Sylpheo, signed a multi-year agreement with Microsoft and a research agreement with Transdev to explore the development of mobility services with fleets of autonomous EVs for public and on-demand transportation. And Toyota has launched Toyota Connected, a mobility services platform (MSPF) to house connected services, financial services and car-sharing. One of the first activities is a pilot programme with Getaround in San Francisco. These sub-brands join GM (Maven), Ford (Smart Mobility) and BMW (i Mobility Services). There is an apparent opportunity for premium services, too, with GM launching BOOK by Cadillac and Lincoln announcing Lincoln Chauffeur. ‘Mobility 2.0’ places at its core the need to develop a relationship with the customer. It’s oft-repeated but always relevant: once a vehicle has been sold or leased, there is at best minimal
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Mobility: the OEM perspective
It’s not just the automobile that is being reinvented through the digital revolution. Mobility itself is being reinvented
contact between the OEM and the customer. The downstream services have much closer relationships with those same customers, through subscriptions and membership schemes. And those consumers are increasingly fickle, and decreasingly brand loyal. They pay for services as and when they require them, switch suppliers on a whim, and they do as much as possible online.
- Dr. Lars Heidenreich, Volkswagen Group
At the heart of mobility services, then, lies the consumer. But how is that different from what the automotive industry has been doing for 130 years?
have reorganised our design department for the digital age. We’re setting up three new Volkswagen Group Future Centers in Europe, Asia and California, where design and digital experts create the vehicles of the future. Such a cross-functional melting pot of digitalisation and design, working handin-hand to create and implement the interior, exterior, and the user experience design and engineering of our products and services is groundbreaking in the automotive industry. The work will be integral, direct and with an absolute focus on our customers, their needs, wishes and dreams with design thinking and customer centricity.”
“The difference lies in the new and large challenge which the digital era brings with it,” says Dr. Lars Heidenreich, Head of Smart Mobility in Volkswagen Group’s Digitalization division. “It’s not just the automobile that is being reinvented through the digital revolution. Mobility itself is being reinvented. For this we
Volkswagen is developing a whole new way of thinking, says Heidenreich. “In order to manage the transition and digital transformation successfully, and to develop new business opportunities and market potential with mobility services, we will further develop to become an integrated hardware,
The folks’ wagon?
software and services company. We aim to drive this transition and lead the way. That's why we are increasing the development speed and the investments in these important innovations in the fields of digitalisation and autonomy, and we have created a new structure in our organisation for this. With this, the Volkswagen Group will further advance from being a vehicle manufacturer to becoming a leading provider of sustainable mobility.” Significantly, Heidenreich sees the OEM’s task as exploiting its current position as a traditional vehicle manufacturer in order to benefit from new mobility. “30 years ago, the American computer scientist Alan Kay said: ‘People who are really serious about software should make their own hardware.’ We at Volkswagen Group agree and see things the exact same way. Our huge competitive advantage is that we’ve already perfected the hardware over many decades. We must, and we will, execute on the software and
VW unveiled Sedric, its self-driving pod concept, at the 2017 Geneva motor show
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Automotive Megatrends Magazine
Mobility: the OEM perspective
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Established in 2016, PSA's Free2Move brand brings together the OEM's mobility and smart service offerings. Under the leadership of the brand's Chief Executive Grégoire Olivier, PSA wants Free2Move to become 'the preferred worldwide mobility service provider by 2030' services development with the same focus and attention to detail as successfully done on the hardware development.” One of the challenges facing the OEMs in this game is how to tailor mobility services by brand, when the vehicles will be used by many people effectively as commodities. Heidenreich believes that this will not be an issue – and he speaks as someone with 13 VW Group brands to contend with. As he sees it, autonomy and the future of mobility are intertwined. “Automated driving will generate an entirely new form of expression. The more freely designers are able to develop vehicles, the better and more consistently they will be able to adapt vehicles to people’s individual lifestyles and personal wishes. We will not have uniform autonomous vehicles. On the contrary, the roads of the future will become even more varied, more colourful and more emotional. Over the coming years, individual Volkswagen Group brands will provide quite individual yet specific definitions and highlights for this new mobility. Just look at some of our recent concept cars, which demonstrate how different and brand-specific these multifaceted outcomes can be. The spectrum ranges from our SEDRIC self-driving car concept, to the various fully electric, zero-emission Porsche, Audi, Skoda and VW vehicles. These cars that can be accessed on demand will not just bring us closer to safe accident-free driving, but can also offer great driving pleasure, because emotion, performance and fun to drive will also be important factors in the future.”
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OEMs are strategically or haphazardly spending millions on technologies or buying companies. And it's being done to hedge bets, because people aren't really sure where it's all going to settle - Larry Dominique, PSA North America
Social services Pursuing the self-driving car theme, Heidenreich outlines where autonomous driving fits into the mobility services picture. “In the new mobility world, we will offer accessibility for everyone. It can be used by adults and children alike. This individual mobility can also be used by people who do not have a driving licence or people who have previously not had access to individual mobility because of physical disabilities. Look at how little or no individual mobility we offer to the weakest amongst us - the elderly, the blind, the sick and our children. In the future, we will transport these people conveniently and without
hassle from door to door. Such services will give users an enormous increase in quality of life." Heidenreich says he is convinced that autonomous driving will not be restricted to city conurbations. "Autonomous automobiles provide added value for mobility because they can be easily driven independently to the edge of the city where they can be parked and recharged. This avoids wasting valuable inner-city space for parking. Today, a large proportion of the time spent in a car is lost time. Think about traffic jams, stop-and-go in the city, or the wasted time searching for parking. We will give people this time back.”
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Mobility: the OEM perspective PSA's emov electric vehicle rental scheme in Barcelona has over 100,000 subscribers
The first of VW’s mobility service offerings will come through the Moia brand, which will launch with specificallybranded electric people carriers for ride-sharing, similar to Ford’s plans with Chariot, or Uber’s Uber Pool. The US launch is currently expected in 2018, with a target to become a top-three mobility company within a decade.
Without a car, you’re free to move
Unlike VW’s branded approach to mobility services, PSA’s Free2Move brand is based not on specific vehicles, but on services – and its approach is a cautious one. OEMs have struggled to define ‘mobility’, and several are taking the shotgun approach, says Larry
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Dominique, the former TrueCar executive and automotive industry veteran who heads up PSA North America. “They are either strategically or haphazardly investing everywhere, spending millions of euros and dollars on looking into technologies or buying companies. And it's being done to hedge bets, because people aren't really sure where it's all going to settle.” As a European company looking to make a new mark on the US market, PSA Group will need to adapt its strategy to a very different mobility culture, with US cities having little passion for public transportation. “In the United States, we have 260 million cars on the road. We sell 17.5 million cars a year. But we also sell 42 million used cars a year,” notes Dominique. “The
Free2Move joins PSA’s new-look suite of brands, which now includes Opel and Vauxhall, which the OEM recently acquired from GM. “That gives us a scale that we didn't have before. It's a very positive thing” - Larry Dominique, PSA North America
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average commute in the United States varies, but many people are in their cars 30 or 40 minutes a day commuting. Sometimes that means you are commuting 40 or 60 kilometres to get to work. And the reality is, that's not driving - that's commuting.” An interesting point about this new notion of mobility is the rush not only to launch mobility services, but also to define those services within brands. This is a clear recognition that mobility is much bigger than just selling cars – it’s about being with your customers every step of the way, every part of their day, including bicycles and other means of last mile transportation. Dominique concurs. “People are starting to live in an Amazon world. They're used to one-click purchases, they're used to not having to wait. Transportation and mobility have to tie in to that don't-wantto-wait mentality we're seeing globally.” This means offering apps that identify the closest ride-share or ride-hail vehicle. “That’s the key to the future. And the beauty of it is that those ancillary businesses, those other verticals that we can tap into - data and connectivity - are high margin businesses. If you can diversify your core business, namely auto making, by offering these ancillary services to consumers, you have the opportunity to supplement your P&L with innovation and high margin opportunities.”
PSA – the postmanufacturing OEM?
PSA’s ‘Push to Pass’ strategy details the eventual marketing of PSA Group cars in North America. Ironically, for the moment, PSA in North America is playing the part
Automotive Megatrends Magazine
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Mobility: the OEM perspective
Over the coming years, individual Volkswagen Group brands will provide quite individual yet specific definitions and highlights for this new mobility. Our recent concept cars demonstrate how different and brand-specific these multifaceted outcomes can be - Dr. Lars Heidenreich, Volkswagen Group
of a post-vehicle manufacturing OEM, offering car-based services in a market where it does not even sell cars. “We have a greenfield opportunity in North America,” acknowledges Dominique. “We have the ability to approach a marketplace where every other OEM has years of legacy from dealer networks, brand establishment and market share. We have the opportunity to think about the post-modern world of the automaker and define it. We don't have to take an existing model and try to rearrange it or redefine it.” PSA Group has already begun to enjoy mobility service success; it recently announced 100,000 subscribers to its Emov electric vehicle rental scheme in Barcelona. But how will this translate into success elsewhere? “Our goal under Free2Move is to take best practices and learn about the evolving mobility from wherever it is in the world and see if there's a global opportunity for that execution. What we're doing in Europe, we're looking to adopt here. Some of the things we might be doing uniquely here, we may adopt in Europe. Our goal is to really understand the market as we roll out mobility. It’s all about data and understanding the consumer and the usage. The more we know about the consumers and their behaviour, what they want and don't want, and what they like and don't like, the better the offer we can make them when we start providing automobiles directly to them.” A timetable for when that will happen, which types of vehicles, and which brands, has not yet been published. Recent developments have, however,
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added to PSA’s brand offering – it has acquired the European operations of General Motors, giving it a German and a British brand, namely Opel and Vauxhall. “That gives us a scale that we didn't have before. It's a very positive thing,” notes Dominique.
The most exciting period in the auto industry's history
“If automakers set up new business units to compete in the new mobility industry … they must design new operating models for these units,” writes EY in its aforementioned ‘Remodeling for mobility’ report. “Leveraging relevant capabilities from the core business must not come at the expense of remaining tied to the old ways of operating. This doesn’t mean abandoning the core business – adept organizations will create feedback mechanisms for the new units to transfer knowledge and process innovation back to the core for continuous improvement.” PSA’s Dominique and VW’s Heidenreich have echoed that; and speaking at SMMT Connected, an event organised by the UK’s automotive industry lobby group in London in April 2017, BMW’s Ian Robertson said, “This industry is 100 years old. We have done what we do in the roughly the same way for 100 years. We have designed in the same way, we manufacture in roughly the same way and our customers use the products in a similar way. In the next five to seven years, that will change more than in the
last 100. We're at the tipping point of the most exciting period in this industry's history. We are moving in the direction of being tech companies, and the tech company part is the most exciting phase of the last 100 years.” It’s a view shared by Ford. Mike Tinskey, the OEM’s Director of Connected Vehicle - Emerging Services, told Megatrends, “As a company, we’re very mindful of the trends towards the shared economy and connectivity. We believe these trends are real, and with them will come new and emerging business models. In the near future, we might find ourselves selling a suite of transportation services, in lieu of today’s traditional vehicle sale.” According to Frost & Sullivan, the number of people using app-enabled car-pooling services already stands at 40 million worldwide, with 70 million using ride-hailing apps. The consultancy attributes the success to the ability to integrate and aggregate mobility services, enabling customers to plan, book and pay for journeys on smartphones. These services are so lucrative that Frost & Sullivan estimates the revenue potential of such digital mobility services reaching around US$2tr by 2025 globally. From being providers of mobility and servicing, the OEMs are transitioning into mobility services providers. There’s a long way to go before they get the model right, and even further before it’s commercially viable, but work done now will lay the foundations not just for success, but for survival.
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Autonomous Car Detroit 2017
AV deployment so far, yet so near Jumping into a car, stating where you want to go, and kicking back with a cup of coffee and a movie while being chauffeured to your destination by a driverless car – it’s long been the stuff of dreams. The remarkable advances in autonomous vehicle (AV) technology are thanks to the innovations of OEMs, Tier 1s, technology companies and even policy makers. At Autonomous Car Detroit – a one-day event hosted by Automotive Megatrends – industry experts came together to debate the issues facing AV deployment. Michael Nash summarises the key takeaways
Safety first 28
Statistics from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) show road traffic deaths are on the rise, and although safety tech in the automotive industry has come a long way in recent years, the widespread
deployment of AVs may be the only way to achieve ‘Vision Zero’. Ironically, while intended to be lifesaving, humans naturally approach new technology with caution, especially when it could be life threatening. Michael James
of Toyota Research Institute (TRI) thinks today’s consumers are reluctant to place their trust in AVs - firstly because they don’t yet have faith in the technology, and secondly because of exposure and vulnerability to hacking.
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Autonomous Car Detroit 2017
Sharing is caring
With such rapid advances in AV technology, legislation is in danger of falling behind. It’s the view of Ian Graig, Chief Executive of Global Policy Group, that writing policy is
Tried and tested?
Central to the pro-AV argument is making mobility easier and more accessible, though price is a concern. Mark de la Vergne, the City of Detroit’s Chief of Mobility Innovation, suggested that
You’re young, living in a bustling megacity, and reading/working/surfing during your train commute has become one of your favourite pastimes. Driving
a lengthy process, and therefore AVs “pose a real challenge to how legislation has traditionally been made.” Although it could be vital for the technology’s success, Matt
Part of NHTSA’s recent proposal for a legislative framework included governance on testing AV technology. Numerous OEMs already have licenses to test AVs on public roads, and some
AVs should not be a symbol of income, status or class, but should be available to everyone. Could there be such thing as a low-cost entry-level AV? Today the technology is expensive, but with
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isn’t an option: car parking is a challenge and expensive to come by, but ride-sharing may be useful for the last mile or two of most of your
Smith, Michigan Department of Transportation, warned that delays in the construction of a legislative framework run the risk of delaying AV deployment.
ride-sharing companies have made AVs available to the general public. James of TRI holds the view that testing is critical to decipher what needs to be done before AVs can be widely adopted:
scale comes affordability. Autonomous taxis could also make transport easier for less mobile individuals, helping them obtain the independence they crave, said Carla Bailo of Ohio State University.
journeys. De la Vergne has good news for you: he thinks autonomous and electrified ride-sharing fleets could soon pop up in cities all over the world.
Legislation
“Nobody has an answer to what performance levels we require from these vehicles. Is it human-level or is it beyond? Real-world tests are crucial for us to find out.”
Mobility for all 29
Evolution of the driving experience
Autonomous synonymous with connectivity by 2025
Megatrends speaks to Bosch’s Manfred Baden to find out how the driving experience will change over the next decade. The upshot? Manual control of the car will be taken away from the driver in more ways than one. By Freddie Holmes
iscussions as to whether the connected car will ever be truly ‘finished’ continue, but it is generally thought that it will keep evolving as new services and devices become available. While there may not be a clearly defined vision for the connected car as a product, it is expected that in less than ten years’ time, every new car sold in key developed markets will be connected.
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Tier 1 mega supplier Robert Bosch recently carried out a study on the future of the connected car, and surmised that every new car sold in the US, Germany and China’s metropolitan areas will be connected by 2025. As for how this will affect the car, Manfred Baden, President of Car Multimedia at Bosch, believes there will be a two-step development. Not only will the layout of the cockpit change, but so will the way in which
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tasks are carried out – both by the driver and the car itself through automation. A connection to Internet- and Cloud-based services will provide a rich foundation of data which will allow the car to drive itself and offer assistance to passengers. Integrated sensors will communicate with road infrastructure and other connected devices – including cars – to reduce the chances of a collision, and to improve road utilisation. It is easy to see why the term ‘connected’ is often referred to as an umbrella under which various technologies fall. Bosch says its technologies are ‘invented for life’, and as such believes that connected mobility must serve not only people, but also society and the environment. As Bosch board member Dirk Hoheisel puts it: “Connected mobility will mean fewer accidents, less fuel consumption and less stress.” Baden agrees. “This will have a
tremendous effect with regard to the reduction of accidents,” he says, and refers to findings from the supplier’s recent connectivity study. “We expect that in combination with driver assistance and active safety systems, you can reduce the number of road collisions in the US, Germany and Chinese cities by 260,000 per year, injuries by 360,000 and fatal collisions by 11,000.”
The effect of autonomy
Running alongside developments in connectivity will be continued advances in autonomous driving technology. In particular, highly automated driving of Level 4 functionality will have a significant impact on the way drivers interact with their cars, and will require new concepts of human-machine interaction.
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Evolution of the driving experience
We expect that in combination with driver assistance and active safety systems, you can reduce the number of road collisions in the US, Germany and Chinese cities by 260,000 per year, injuries by 360,000 and fatal collisions by 11,000
“This technology requires that the driver is capable of taking over and driving manually, and for this you need special human-machine interface (HMI) concepts that build in the car’s ability to manage the situation,” says Baden. To build up trust, he suggests that the car’s windscreen could become digitised and used to visualise notifications from the self-driving system. Today, head-up displays (HUD) are already being used to present critical information to the driver, such as speed limits and active safety warnings. “We also see interaction with the steering wheel being useful, so that we can really ensure that the driver knows when he has taken over or when he has passed control to automated driving,” notes Baden.
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Driver monitoring cameras would add another dimension, allowing the system to evaluate for itself whether the driver is ready to regain control. Level 5
automated driving would not require such HMI, he noted, as the driver is not expected to take manual control of the vehicle in any circumstance.
Staying in touch, with hybrid HMI
Interacting with an infotainment system today is akin to that of a smartphone or tablet device, with the driver manually controlling features via the infotainment screen. Typically, this requires the driver’s gaze to leave the road – a hazardous dynamic that can cause distraction and result in a crash. New HMI systems are being developed to simplify this task, which will not only make driving more comfortable but also far safer. It is unclear whether the cockpit will go completely contactless in future, and
The driver needs to be aware of the driving situation. After this has been confirmed by the drivermonitoring camera, he or she can take over control of the vehicle
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Baden suggests there will likely remain a mix of hands-free and hands-on interaction. Touchscreen systems are common even in entry-level vehicles today, whilst many premium marques feature gesture control and speech-to-text functionality. These systems are likely to become out-dated as more capable hands-free technologies enter the market. For example, Bosch’s smart haptic touchscreen, neoSense, creates digital surfaces and edges to replicate physical buttons and textures. This means that the driver can locate buttons on the touchscreen without looking away from the road, with a fingertip vibration to confirm the action. Through a partnership with UK-based start-up Ultrahaptics, Bosch has also developed an infotainment screen that can be controlled over-the-air. This technology uses ultrasound to register movements of the driver’s hands and fingertips, and can be used to control the navigation system or change radio station without needing to touch the screen. “I envision an interior with touch control that uses advanced haptic feedback, and gesture control with ultrasonic feedback,” muses Baden. “We'll have a combination of interfaces.” Advanced voice recognition systems are likely to be used to control most features in future, and Baden believes it is the ideal technology in terms of safety and comfort, despite potential stumbling points when multiple passengers are in the car. “Voice control would be the best solution, but you have to make sure that noise is not an issue,” he admits. “It allows the driver to concentrate on other issues in the car with very little
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Evolution of the driving experience
According to Robert Bosch, by 2025, every new car sold in metropolitan China, Germany and the US will be connected distraction, but other noises can make things complicated.” Driver monitoring cameras would assist here, working in tandem with the voice recognition system to focus solely on the driver’s commands. “I see a combination of all of these technologies,” muses Baden.
The road to 2025
Autonomous vehicles will not populate the roads in significant volumes for years to come, but various stepping-stones of automation are being implemented along the way. For those vehicle manufacturers pursuing Level 4 technology on the SAE scale of automation, the car will need to communicate its intentions to the driver, and whether the human needs to regain control.
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What’s particularly difficult is just how to communicate this to the driver, and how
to ensure the driver is ready to take the wheel. If control is given back too late, the car may be caught in a grey area of automation, and then crash. If control is handed back too early, the driver may not be ready, with the same outcome. At CES 2017, a Bosch autonomous demonstrator showed that unless the driver is paying attention, the car will remain in autonomous mode, slow down and analyse the safest opportunity to pull over. “Even if the handover to manual control is not possible, you have this back-up solution,” explains Baden. As for the timeframe for taking over, he noted that Bosch is investigating anything from 30 to 60 seconds, giving the driver time to prepare. “The driver needs to be aware of the driving situation,” he continues. “After this has been confirmed by the driver-monitoring camera, he or she can take over control of the vehicle.”
In March, Bosch announced it would work with Nvidia to develop a computer system with Level 4 autonomous driving capability, but how this will link in with the supplier’s wider offering to OEMs – many of which have already partnered with Nvidia – is unclear. Several manufacturers have announced firm production deadlines for Level 4 autonomous vehicles by 2021, and the race is on to find the most effective HMI solution. As for the roll-out of Level 5 automated vehicles, Baden is more conservative. “Robot-taxis driving around in platoons and Level 5 automated driving outside of cities – both will happen after 2025,” he suggests. By this time, the car will have open discourse with the driver and relay vital information to reduce distraction. The driver will continue to perform tasks inside the car, but primarily by voice – even in autonomous mode.
Level 4 requires that the driver is capable of taking over and driving manually, and for this you need special human-machine interface (HMI) concepts that build in the car’s ability to manage the situation
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Automotive Megatrends Magazine
Edge computing for cars
It's time to push connected cars right to the edge Connectivity will enable everything from connected services to autonomous cars and maybe even better-selling EVs – but how will connected cars cope when off-network? Xavier Boucherat talks edge computing with Kal Mos of Mercedes-Benz he number of connected vehicles on the road continues to proliferate, as consumers seek to take advantage of new convenience and entertainment features. Connectivity has become so engrained into the fabric of everyday life that before long, the unconnected car will become an economically unviable prospect for OEMs.
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That’s according to Kal Mos, Vice President for Connected Car, User Interaction & Telematics at MercedesBenz Research & Development North America. “Our phones are connected,” he
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says. “We’re connected all the time. And so getting in the car and finding you’re not connected can be a stressful experience. As such, connectivity is already written into the DNA of our cars – there will be no cars without connectivity, period.” Improvements to the underlying technology continue, along with innovation in the connected services sector. But looking ahead, Mos predicts that as demand for services grows, OEMs will be faced with new challenges, all of which must be immediately taken into account.
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Edge computing for cars
We’re connected all the time. And so getting in the car and finding you’re not connected can be a stressful experience. As such, connectivity is already written into the DNA of our cars – there will be no cars without connectivity, period
One of his primary concerns is a fundamental one – the availability of reliable connectivity outside of built-up urban areas. As OEMs work to create connected features, so too will they need to make sure that these features can function without connectivity. Key to this will be edge computing, in which data-processing is decentralised from a central unit in a network and pushed to the periphery - in this case, the car. “If you do get connectivity, you get enhanced functionality and features,” says Mos, “but nobody wants to be stranded when not connected. People assume the car has everything they need, and they assume connectivity is guaranteed, when in reality it isn’t. This is why we place such importance on edge computing, and this is one of our biggest challenges.” Edge computing makes use of different techniques which help features work without a connection. For example, there are several techniques that could help a music-streaming platform continue working outside of well-connected areas. Tracks could be pre-cached, for example. That said, Mos believes that for the time being, customer attitudes are such that most drivers will understand that some non-essential connected services will not be available in all areas.
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Where failure will not be tolerated is in critical systems, and this includes navigation systems. “If you are navigating and waiting for your right turn, but suddenly you lose connectivity and directions, that could be a real problem,” he says. “Customers would not accept that.” Several mapping apps already have offline capability, allowing users to download map data and relying on technology such as GPS to track movement. Development of edge computing capability will also prove essential in enabling artificial intelligence (AI) within vehicles, which among other things will aid in the development of the autonomous car. Hugely powerful processors, capable of crunching massive amounts of data, mean that AI capabilities have increased tremendously in recent years. In certain applications, such as static image recognition, some can already outperform humans. The problem, says Mos, is that work to date has been primarily carried out on server farms, where connectivity is largely guaranteed. The challenge lies in bringing that power to the car, where resources are more limited. “Where do you store all the information needed?” Mos muses. “How do you process it, and
what kind of power will this require to make real-time decisions? Eventually we will have to reach a point where we enable AI and machine learning in the car and get results in real time.” In addition, says Mos, it is important to understand just how much greater a challenge driving presents when compared with something like static image recognition. Images continually change when driving, many more variables are introduced and different weather conditions mean that image quality can differ significantly. “And even if we get this right,” he says, “something like image recognition is just one of several human capabilities. Drivers are not just watching – they are hearing, feeling, and calling on their years of experience around things like locations. They know where is safe, and where is crazy. They know where there are schools, and when children may be running about. They have a total knowledge.” For these reasons, Mos suspects the move from lab AI to edge AI will take a huge amount of work, but with connectivity set to enable advancements across a number of priorities, the value for OEMs is plain to see.
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Edge computing for cars
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Nobody wants to be stranded when not connected. People assume the car has everything they need, and they assume connectivity is guaranteed, when in reality it isn’t. This is why we place such importance on edge computing
Connected, automated, shared, electrified
Along with accelerating developments in the field of autonomous driving, connectivity will spear advancements in shared mobility services and electrification. “We will reach a point where connectivity will enable many things behind the scenes,” says Mos, “all of which will make a customer’s experience much more fruitful.” Electrification in particular remains a priority for many OEMs, as infrastructure improves and emissions standards tighten worldwide. In the future, says Mos, Daimler expects that connectivity will enable complete visibility of an electrified vehicle’s status, including detailed information on a battery’s charge and condition that will help a driver to make better informed decisions to keep the vehicle running. Furthermore, connectivity
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can help the vehicle better communicate its needs to charging infrastructure. “For example,” he says, “when a vehicle returns home and parks, it should be able to negotiate with a home charger how much time it needs, as this can limit costs. The same thing could be offered at the office.” In addition, connectivity will help OEMs like Daimler build better EVs and hybrids by monitoring their performance and the behaviour of their drivers in different environments. “For example,” asks Mos, “are they charging every day, and for how long? Are they driving 50 miles a day, or is it more like 500? And beyond that, we want to understand different customer segments across different demographics and markets, with different lines of car available. We can understand all of this through connectivity, and we can make better cars as a result.”
Mos stresses that, just as with many other connected services, it will be important for customers to fully consent to the collection of such data. Privacy remains an extremely important issue, particularly for a German company like Daimler which is required to clearly outline what customer data is kept, where it is kept and how it is used. All connected services offered by Daimler, says Mos, begin with the customer understanding and accepting. However, Mos also suspects that attitudes among first-time electric vehicle users may differ from those of internal combustion engine users. “When you buy an electric car,” he concludes, “the experience of driving completely changes. In a gasoline car, it is possible to stop at any station and quickly fill up. But with EVs, drivers start having to think about when, where and how to charge.” Mobile apps will play an important role, he adds, giving drivers continuous access to a vehicle’s status.
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Connected Car Detroit 2017
The connected car: prepare for mass disruption The connected car is one of the most disruptive trends to grip the automotive industry. It brings with it endless possibilities, from the realisation of safer mobility to the development of new business models. A variety of these opportunities and issues were discussed at length at Connected Car Detroit, an event hosted by Automotive Megatrends. Michael Nash was there – here’s what he learned
Connected for life Road traffic collisions result in the deaths of around a million people each year – a figure that could be significantly lowered with vehicle connectivity. As well as improving the safety of drivers and occupants by enabling progress in
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the development of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), connectivity will help to safeguard cyclists and other road users. Vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V), vehicle-toinfrastructure (V2I) and vehicle-to-pedestrian
(V2P) technology could all play central roles, said Frank Weith, Director Connected Services at Volkswagen Group, allowing the connected car to predict scenarios before they unravel and mitigate the risk of collisions.
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Connected Car Detroit 2017
Safe and secure Leading on from and directly linked to safety is security. Each connected component in a vehicle is an “entry point that could potentially be exploited by hackers,” warned Meg Novacek of Argus Cyber
Security. OEMs are now focusing more of their efforts and investments on hiring security experts to develop firewalls from the early stages of vehicle design, as well as employing white-hat researchers to identify
any weaknesses that need plugging. The key takeaway: hackers will always pose a security threat when devices are connected, but the aim for the automotive industry is to stay one step ahead of the bad guys.
Dealing with data The rapidly growing number of connected features being built into vehicles is dramatically increasing the amount of data generated by new cars. This is opening up a host of opportunities that
could make mobility smarter, more efficient and cost effective. However, it’s also opening up a number of challenging questions: Who owns this data? Who should have access to it?
What should it be used for? The answers aren’t yet clear, but what is clear is that the automotive industry will have to find ways to handle huge amounts of useful (and confidential) data.
Monetising the connected car ‘We’re no longer just an OEM – we’re becoming a service provider’ – a statement heard increasingly frequently as the traditional OEMs adapt to the changing nature of the automotive industry. One of the primary ways of monetising the
connected car is through the launch of new services, from ride-sharing to new onboard infotainment features. Separate business models can be built around new connected vehicle services, but monetisation should not
be part of the equation when it comes to safety features in the connected car. As Andrew Smart, Chief Technical Officer of the American Center for Mobility, pointed out, any technology that saves lives should be readily available to all.
Bridge to automation Looking to the future, connected car technologies are a nod to the roll-out of highly autonomous vehicles (HAVs). Many of these technologies are already central to semiautonomous features,
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like automatic emergency braking systems and adaptive cruise control. And while the most optimistic predictions for bringing HAVs to market refer to a timeline starting in
2021, the automotive industry is confident that connected car technologies and advanced hardware have already enabled autonomous vehicle operation in controlled environments.
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Cyber security
OEMs must shift gears in their approach to cyber security The auto industry needs to learn from the IT industry and shift left, says Dr. Magnus Gerisch, Managing Enterprise Architect, Application Services at Capgemini ccording to Gartner, by 2020 an estimated 250 million connected cars will be on the roads worldwide. It’s easy to see why, as the potential benefits for automotive manufacturers in connecting their cars to the Internet and each other are significant.
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With OEMs pushing to create increasingly connected vehicles and components, the modern car is in the midst of unprecedented change. New connected elements sit uncomfortably alongside aspects of car design that have not changed at the same pace. Modern electronic control units, advanced sensors and software are integrated with legacy parts within a car such as older embedded systems. In its basic construction, the car was never designed with so much connection in mind. This blend of new and legacy components means that as the car becomes more connected, its
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vulnerability to digital attacks grows and so does the potential damage one can cause. Cyber security is therefore becoming a key concern for manufacturers. However, many are considering security, whether it be for a new part or the entire car, later in the development process. This is the wrong approach.
‘Shift left’ - a new mindset for the automotive industry
The automotive industry could benefit from adopting a mindset found in other areas of IT, where teams take the quality assurance of a product or service into account at the earliest stages. It’s worth noting that these teams work in a quick production environment, which is far from the world
of embedded systems in the automotive sector, but nonetheless the core principle can deliver important lessons for the industry. In the world of software, this approach is called ‘shift left testing’, a term that stems from moving testing ‘left’ on the project timeline to come earlier in the lifecycle. The reason for this is obvious. A defect or risk found and treated in the initial stages of development is the cheapest one. Detecting errors later in the process will have greater impact – be it in the manufacturing cycle or after the vehicle is launched, when fixes are inherently more complicated, or even after a hack has occurred and customer trust has been lost. An additional challenge OEMs face is a complex supply chain, with electronic components developed by a multitude of suppliers. As a result, car brands have little insight into the actual development
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Cyber security
OEMs face a complex supply chain, with electronic components developed by a multitude of suppliers. Car brands have little insight into the development processes at their suppliers, particularly their software architecture or code
processes at their suppliers, particularly their software architecture or code. However, a ‘shift left’ approach can be effectively adopted here also. Test strategies in such cases may include checking test logs or to have a third party review source code and processes. If a code review or white-box testing is not possible, it may still be possible to perform grey-box and blackbox pentesting.
A requirement for continuous security
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This mindset of testing early doesn’t just apply when designing a new model, but also when updating and upgrading parts for existing models. Every new function or any change that is made can impact security. For example, when a manufacturer wants to extend a remote update capability to an additional channel such
as Bluetooth, this increases the attack surface of the vehicle. In order to mitigate against this, an OEM should perform a risk assessment to balance benefits against potential damage in the earliest stages of design - something it should be undertaking for each and every new or changed functionality. In many cases, the potential risks highlighted by this assessment can be addressed through technical measures in one of the electronic control units, which can be expressed as various kinds of security requirements. Such security requirements, functional behaviours that enforce security, are critical to prevent damaging attacks. Risk assessments are not the only source from which OEMs can develop security requirements, which can be based on anything from security principles to external regulations. Even with a shift-left mentality and strong security requirements, given the
In the world of software, the term ‘shift left testing’ stems from moving testing ‘left’ on the project timeline to come earlier in the lifecycle
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complexity of in-vehicle software it is unrealistic to expect completely errorfree software upon the launch of a new car, component or update. Once a vehicle leaves the factory floor and the direct control of the manufacturer, it’s important that the car can be monitored for security anomalies and that it is possible to remotely update its security status via, for example, over-the-air (OTA) software updates. Putting in place security operations, which includes security monitoring, allows for quicker and well-managed reaction to hacks and a reduction in the window of exposure – basically the time it takes to fix a vulnerability in any vehicle.
From steel to software While a traditional outlook that considers cyber security late in the process and a supply chain that is difficult to control are issues that are not exclusive to the automotive industry, they are both so entrenched that they present what is perhaps a unique challenge.
For an OEM to change its entire approach to cyber security can be extremely difficult. This is, after all, an industry that for many years has specialised in steel rather than software. However, in this era of the connected car, it’s critical for every OEM to blend existing expertise in manufacturing and hardware with a more ‘digital’ approach. This means car brands have to adopt a mentality where at the earliest stages of R&D they are as comfortable considering cyber security as they are steering and braking systems.
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Future car design
The ultimate challenge: create vehicles that enable creativity Megan Lampinen talks to design consultancy IDEO about the need to rethink vehicle design for the car of the future ide-sharing and autonomous drive technology are reshaping automotive business models, but they also promise to reshape the vehicles themselves. Design and innovation firm IDEO is helping various mobility companies work out their visions for the vehicle of the future.
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"We are moving from an industry that has planning cycles of six years to an ecosystem of service providers that will have to cater to changing needs and behaviours on a daily basis," predicts Luis Cilimingras, Managing Director of IDEO London. Human-centric design will prove pivotal to the transition.
Customer-centric
"We bring human-centred design to our projects to help create organisational cultures," Cilimingras told Megatrends. "It is important for us to influence the cultures with which we work. This is especially true in the car industry, which has a very technologically-focused culture. We help them innovate and develop products and services that cater to the real needs and desires of people." Maintaining a close relationship with customers will be essential for any mobility providers in the future, and traditional OEMs may find themselves in jeopardy. "The car industry has been alienating itself from customers for a long time. The brands sell the car and then gives away the customer to aftersales or finance. After the sale they are not worried about their customer anymore," Cilimingras observed. This
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lack of customer-centricity will bite back if traditional manufacturers do not start changing their approach. "The OEMs need to start working with people that have customers - and customer satisfaction - at the core of their business model every day. This is what Uber does, for example. Uber leads every day on the happiness of its customers, and that is the big difference," he added. "I definitely see the power shifting and it will be shifting to the service providers and the people that are going to be much closer to what the needs of the users are on a real-time basis.
Power shift
IDEO's automotive customers include the likes of Lexus, Volkswagen, Ford, Bosch and Michelin as well as service providers, maintenance partners, bike sharing companies and others. "I am reticent to think that much of that innovation is going to come from the OEMs, simply because their business model is not very aligned with this," suggested Cilimingras. "Cars have traditionally been designed for single use, to influence the single buyer or family. Who is interested in moving away from having one owner per car? I think much of that disruption will come from service providers." He envisions a future in which fleet operators will have a stronger role in configuring vehicles or buying basic versions and then having them upfitted with another level of kit. He points to the
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UK minicab company Addison Lee as an example. The operator recently invested £17m (US$21m) in 550 new Ford Galaxy models as it renewed a large chunk of its taxi fleet. The problem, as Cilimingras sees it, is that these vehicles were not designed for taxi use.
Future car design slower-changing needs and to anchor technological advances into answering them," Cilimingras explained. The result can be seen in various concept vehicles on display at events like the Geneva Motor Show and Barcelona Mobile World Congress. "These concepts look
we want for the mode that we need. If I want to have a nap on my way to the airport, or if I want to make a very important conference call, I will require a super silent place where I can sit down and work or sleep," he pointed out. A vehicle for a family holiday will have a
Many design elements need to be considered and developed much faster to evolve into a shared scenario. There are interesting features like using the space under the seat as personal storage, which is always somewhat awkward when getting into a taxi or in an Uber Pool
"Every time I go into an Addison Lee I try to sit in the front because the back seats are so uncomfortable. They have just not been designed for that use," he observed. "When Addison Lee realises that its future depends on the comfort of the passengers, and the kind of activities that customers want to be able to do during their drive, they will start having an opinion." At some point, he believes Ford or other brands will begin giving companies like Addison Lee space to co-design cars with them. This sort of close collaboration is already starting to emerge from some corners, as seen with General Motors' US$500m investment in ride-share provider Lyft last year. GM also gained a seat on Lyft's board of directors. "We are seeing many of these operators starting to work together. Things are still in the early stages now but that will happen more moving forward. We will also see new mobility specialist startups that will provide interesting products," he forecast.
What's inside
At the foundation of IDEO's work is the principle that technology moves very fast but the needs of people move very slowly. "We try to understand these
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futuristic but I don't think we will have to wait many years to see them happen," he said. "I've never seen as much change as what has been happening in the last 18 months." Many industry participants have commented on the pace at which the industry is evolving, and Cilimingras describes it as "exponential." Future mobility will largely be shared mobility, in Cilimingras' view, with a gradual erosion of personal ownership. "Many design elements will need to be considered and developed much faster if we are to evolve into more of a shared scenario," he pointed out. Private storage options in a vehicle, for example, will need to be developed for each passenger, introducing new design challenges. "There are interesting little features like using the space under the seat as personal storage, which is always somewhat awkward when you get into a taxi or an Uber Pool. Where do I put my bag? There are many small things like this. You need to think, if we were to design something to be shared, what would be the elements that would be so important here." Shared mobility also means flexibility in selecting different vehicle models for different requirements. "In the longer term, if we are booking vehicles in real time, we would be booking the car that
very different interior, perhaps child seats and video screens, for instance. This new mobility approach could completely redefine the traditional commute. "Commuting will become part of our lives and not just this weird twilight zone transition between my work life and my home life," he forecast.
Fostering creative productivity
As automation takes away many of the repetitive tasks not only in driving but in wider day-to-day activities, people will begin demanding different functionality from their vehicles. "If we go another step into the future, when automation spreads, we will be evaluated on our creative productivity. This is one area where automation cannot take over," he said. The idea is that vehicles will somehow need to foster creative productivity while transporting individuals. "That is one area that will receive considerable attention in the next ten years. If we are required to become more creative beings, if we are going to be evaluated and measured on how much creativity we are able to produce, how is our mobility answering to that?" Cilimingras asks. "It is an open question and a big provocation for the industry. We need to create vehicles that are enablers of creativity. How do we do that?"
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Mobility services in India
India - prime target for smart mobility Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) refers to the concept of seamlessly integrating mobility services on a single platform. Indraneel Bardhan of EOS Intelligence considers the potential for MaaS in India, and how it can be used to move not just people, but also freight rapidly growing urban population (CAGR 2.35% between 2011 and 2031e), increasing motorisation rate (CAGR 12.7% between 2010 and 2025e), critical levels of traffic congestion, growing traffic fatality rates, inadequate mobility monitoring and deteriorating air quality - all of these make India a prime for smart mobility solutions.
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Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) could be a game changer for India’s traffic and transportation woes by seamlessly integrating the first and last mile connectivity to supplement existing fragmented transportation systems. MaaS has the potential to help bridge the current gap between the increasing demand for mobility and the slow pace of infrastructure development. The rapid consumerisation of IT and technology and growing smartphone penetration should help boost the adoption of MaaS, as long as the country’s government stands by its pledge to make India ‘truly digital’. This article takes a closer look at MaaS and the potential impact it might have on India’s transportation and travel – two areas that could be radically altered.
MaaS for transport
India’s current mix of freight transportation is heavily reliant on roads (more than 60% of freight) with underutilisation of other, potentially cheaper, modes such as rail and waterways. Lack of adequate and timely investment has been the key reason for the ineffective development of other modes of goods transportation.
There's an app for that! A whole host of factors make India a prime target for smart mobility solutions
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In road transportation, there are several bottlenecks ranging from poor infrastructure to bureaucratic challenges (such as complex toll and tax systems)
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Mobility services in India
Ro-Ro ferry routes Ro-Ro (roll-on roll-off) ferry routes are being developed to boost freight movement and reduce journey time and shipping costs through waterways. As an example, the Ro-Ro service between Ghogha (Saurashtra) and Dahej (Gujarat) will reduce distance between the two points by 90% from the present 350km (by road) to just 30km (by sea). From a logistics standpoint, the project will open up tremendous opportunities, since both towns are important commercial centres as well as strategic ports. The project will not only dramatically reduce the travel time and pressure on road and rail networks, but it is likely to give a major boost to tourism as well.
across states that result in higher lead times and transportation costs. The fact that India’s 29 states follow various nonuniform transportation rules and regulations, with multi-tier tax structures, has not helped the cause. There is also a pressing need for improvements in infrastructure as well as technology penetration to tackle prevailing inefficiencies. The 2017 union budget provides a much needed boost to India’s logistics and transportation sector, by earmarking US$20bn towards modernisation of rail infrastructure and US$9bn for highways development. In an effort to reduce logistics costs and improve competitiveness, the government has also launched a multi-modal transport plan that includes setting up of 35 multimodal logistics parks with a total investment of US$7.5bn. Some 15 of these logistics parks are expected to be ready in the next five years, while the remaining 20 will be constructed over the next ten years. In addition, the government will pursue the construction of 50 economic corridors to improve efficiency of freight movement. These
projects expect to increase the average freight speed on highways from 2025kph (12-15mph) to 50kph and reduce freight costs by 50%, which should help achieve more time-efficient management of the supply chain. Apart from rail and road infrastructure, there is a renewed emphasis on national waterways as an integral part of India’s freight movement system. The approval of the National Waterways Bill in 2016 for the development of 111 river belts into national waterways to enhance freight movement and reduce transportation costs is a considerable step forward to make waterways a mainstream transportation option, and potentially integrate this mode with rail and road to create a seamless freight movement network. With the government’s plan of developing multi-modal logistics parks and dedicated freight corridors, there are potential opportunities for industry stakeholders, including logistics start-ups, to move a step further and develop a solution that can bring together various players and transportation modes on a single service
FREIGHT MODAL SHARE IN INDIA, 2016
platform that allows freight to travel via the most efficient route possible across the country. With the way companies such as Uber or Lyft have transformed the concept of urban mobility, ‘uberisation’ of the transportation industry is the need of the hour and MaaS can play a truly critical role in this transformation. Companies such as BlackBuck, ThePorter and LetsTransport are leveraging technology to bring together fleet operators, warehouses, transporters and truck drivers on a single platform to ensure timely deliveries, optimise fleet capacity and reduce transportation charges. While there is some movement in MaaS development and adoption in the goods transportation space, it seems that still there are still no solutions available in the market that can provide end-to-end logistics solutions by integrating all modes of transportation on a single platform. The need of the hour for the industry is to leverage the on-going government initiatives and start planning a new
COMPARATIVE COST OF MOVING FREIGHT
Waterways, 7 6 0%
ල 2.50/km
Rail 32.10
ල 1.50/km Road, 0.20%
ල 0.25/km
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Mobility services in India
Freight aggregators BlackBuck, India’s leading truck aggregator in the inter-city trucking space, brings together businesses and truck operators on its technology-based marketplace. The platform allows businesses to track their freight and monitor the performance in real time. While its analytics-led insights give the transporter realtime visibility of a customer's demand and increase the number of trips based on this information, it also provides insights on fuel refills on particular routes, monitors the truck’s health, and enables truckers to arrange freight for on return trips, thus helping them optimise their routes and freight. Another player, Rivigo, claims to leverage its ‘Driver Relay Model’ to reduce turnaround time by 50-70% on long haul routes. Under this model, drivers get back home within 24 hours, thereby reducing turnaround time which earlier accounted for resting. Rivigo has cut down the transit time between Delhi and Chennai to just two days from one week using this innovative model.
framework that can develop a MaaS offering by involving different transport operators as per the logistics needs of Indian businesses. This could lay the foundations for the development of a much needed platform that would offer the most needed functionalities - a platform that can allow GPS-based freight management helping companies with real-time tracking and information to make intelligent movement decisions; a platform which provides fleet operators with insights on market demand trends in real time, allowing them to optimise their resources and fleet capacity; a platform that enables integration of various transportation modes and operators ensuring goods travel seamlessly to reach their destination with last mile logistics connectivity. MaaS, if effectively developed and adopted, has the potential to create a more balanced modal network that is cost and time-effective, and can also meet the transportation demands of the future.
MaaS for Travel
In recent years, there has been a fundamental shift in consumer perception of vehicle ownership, at least in urban India. App-based transportation solutions are transforming the way Indians travel in and around cities. This is evident from the growth and penetration rates companies such as Myles, Shuttl or Uber have witnessed in India. However, most of these businesses are still evolving and have a long way to go before becoming mainstream, or at least reaching
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Source: Uber
populations beyond just the country’s urban masses.
rickshaw (tuk-tuk) and taxi under a single roof. Despite these initiatives and investments, public transportation is still perceived by many as uncomfortable, over-crowded and irregular, forcing them opt instead for private cars.
With a critical need for efficient mass mobility in India due to rapid urbanisation and an unmanageable or unsustainable number of vehicle on the roads, the need to enhance mass transport systems is more imminent than ever. This is pushing authorities to develop sustainable solutions, such as the Smart Cities Scheme or Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation (AMRUT), which lay heavy focus on improving urban mobility and public transport systems. To meet these objectives, the government has considerably invested in mass transportation schemes such as metro rail, bus rapid transit system (BRTS) and mass rapid transit (MRT), though with mixed results.
At an inter-city level, although improving, government-run transport services offer a poor level of service experience, with limited frequency, frequent delays and poor travel conditions. Take, for example, rail – it is a preferred choice in the developed world, yet it offers very limited route options for most passengers and is often over-crowded. Buses, on the other hand, though inefficient and surprisingly not always cost effective, end up being the preferred mode of travel for a large section of India’s population.
To enhance combined mobility services, projects are under way to construct ten intermodal stations across the country which can integrate all transportation modes such as rail, MRT, BRTS, auto
At the intra-city level, transportation systems currently lack integration. Public and private enterprises operate in complete isolation, hence failing to meet the customer’s end-to-end travel
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Mobility services in India
Multi-modal urban transportation In 2016, Xerox launched Go Bengaluru, a multi-modal urban transportation app that allowed commuters to reach their destination in the most effective way by combining various transport modes such as walking, cycling, buses, cabs, metro rail and rickshaws. The Xerox app app works closely with Bengaluru Metropolitan Transport Corporation (BMTC), local fleet operators and data service providers, such as Sun Telematics, to ensure accurate information and improved performance for commuter mobility. Such MaaS systems can provide seamless integration across different transport systems and help the whole ecosystem to grow.
expectations. Metro, which is increasingly a preferred choice (cost, comfort and cleanliness being key reasons for that), comes with the downside of the limited last mile connectivity, again resulting in certain urban classes to prefer private vehicles instead. There is a serious need to develop and expand mass transportation systems in cities, increase frequency and reliability of services, enhance last mile connectivity and enable multi-modal integration. With several travel-related problems within and across cities, there is a need for end-to-end mobility solutions that support Indians throughout their entire day-to-day and long-distance travel requirements. An urgent and immediate need is to address the last mile connectivity issue. Therefore, a major effort is required to improve feeder services to create a multi-modal transportation network that can ďŹ ll existing gaps in the market. It is vital for government authorities to look and learn from innovative business models adopted by different start-ups.
For example, UberPOOL, in just over a year, has extended its car-pooling services to six cities in India, and now accounts for more than 20% of all Uber rides in India. Uber claims that through its car-pooling services in Delhi and Bengaluru alone, the company has saved over 7 million kilometres from being driven, which translates to 300,000 litres of fuel saved between January and June 2016. Delhi Metro and Ahmedabad BRTS are other examples of successful urban mass mobility projects in India. These projects are clearly indicative of consumer acceptance of mass mobility and point to a dire need for the provision of tailored mobility solutions as per commuter needs. Transportation authorities need to adopt an intelligent transport system that enables smart journey planning, ticketing, surveillance, real-time traffic management and passenger information. By harnessing data analytics, operators can study and understand commuters’ travel patterns and use them in designing mobility solutions. They can use the same data for effectively managing traffic and congestion during peak hours.
MaaS in perspective
While the opportunities for MaaS services are in abundance, there are various challenges that need to be managed effectively.
Transportation authorities need to adopt an intelligent transport system that enables smart journey planning, ticketing, surveillance, real-time traffic management and passenger information
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One of the largest hurdles for many private players is the current ambiguity of regulations and lack of government support. Government support for such service models is absolutely vital. Carpooling service providers have run into problems with state authorities mainly
over permits and competition with state-run transport services. The ambiguity around the legality of ridesharing businesses has restricted access to funding, forcing many startups to shut down. Government authorities should develop a transparent regulatory framework that enables industry participants to grow. From a consumer standpoint, concerns around safety and security are the major growth barriers that need to be carefully assessed and solved by industry stakeholders. Solving the mobility challenge in India will require courageous and coordinated actions from private and public sector players alike. This can be only achieved by revamping current transportation systems, including a shift to collective mobility in daily commuting and travel practices. Intelligent technologies, access to funding, transparent and businessfriendly policies as well as innovative business models are needed to create smart and sustainable mobility solutions. The authorities should appreciate and support innovation in the sector to create a win-win solution for citizens and industry stakeholders. By leveraging innovative technologies such as MaaS, India can reduce congestion, improve road safety and curb pollution levels. The government, transport operators and service providers should all work together to help citizens and goods move around more effectively. The road is long and there are still many milestones left to be reached, but close collaboration between industry players is likely to lead to innovative MaaS offerings that can signiďŹ cantly enhance urban mobility in India.
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Fuel Economy Detroit 2017
Fuel economy strategies to trump regulatory uncertainty The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently announced that it would reopen the Mid-Term Evaluation (MTE) for passenger car fuel economy targets, creating a wave of uncertainty over the future uptake of fuel-efficient technologies. This news formed the backdrop to Fuel Economy Detroit, a one-day event by Automotive Megatrends. Experts discussed the weight of various approaches in light of potential changes to the legislation. Michael Nash recaps
Uncertainty surrounds regulation While some environmental groups have voiced concern after the US EPA announcement, that very Agency’s Bill Charmley looked to the past as a source of optimism. For four consecutive years, he recalled, OEMs have outperformed greenhouse gas
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(GHG) standards by “investing an enormous amount of time and money in tech, which has been put into the fleet.” Charmley is confident that this trend will continue, with a host of new fuelefficient technologies set to hit the market soon regardless of
regulatory changes. The view was shared by John Juriga, Director of Powertrain, Hyundai-Kia Technical Center (HATCI), who highlighted a wide variety of approaches that can be used to enhance fuel economy.
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Fuel Economy Detroit 2017
Venturing into the unknown One of the leading fuel economy enhancing approaches is electrification. “It will likely be a huge element in improving fuel efficiency, and with higher volume hopefully we’ll reduce costs,”
Juriga said. Most of the predictions made for EV adoption to date have been relatively conservative, but automotive industry consultant Paul Eichenberg thinks that a surprise lies just over the horizon.
“When considering recent OEM announcements, pending cost breakthroughs and consumer acceptance, it is clear that vehicle electrification will come faster than currently forecast.”
Stick with what you know? With electrification and alternative fuels gaining more traction, the future of the internal combustion engine (ICE) could be considered unstable. However, the general consensus from OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers
is that there is still plenty of life left in the ICE – a view supported by Rod Beazley of Westport Fuel Systems. Despite question marks over the future of diesel following the Volkswagen emissions scandal, Denso’s
Doug Patton is confident the fuel type will endure. “I don’t think diesel is dead,” he said. “It may be on life-support in some markets, but there is generally a large diesel market that is healthy and growing.”
economy will be vital. Sandra Walker, who heads up the Mass Reduction team at General Motors, thinks that “each and every component matters” when developing new vehicles. With this
in mind, a mixed material approach to design with lightweighting as a focal point will allow OEMs to identify further improvements in fuel economy and performance.
President Trump “driving the message that customers can get what they want. As OEMs, it’s our job to fulfil those wants and needs and still make efficient products.”
Offering customers what they want while simultaneously meeting fuel economy requirements is a tall ask, “but that’s life and the challenge we face as OEMs.”
The whole is greater Although some individual technologies including electrification are likely to play a key role, the integration of different components and methods for reducing fuel
Customers come first Ultimately, customers always have and always will come first. HATCI’s Juriga thinks that the US EPA’s decision to re-evaluate fuel economy regulations is a result of
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48-volt systems
48V - the solution to the advanced efficiency challenge? Michael Nash talks to Punch Powertrain’s Gert-Jan Vogelaar about the various opportunities that 48-volt systems can provide
study by market research and consulting firm Navigant Research suggests that global sales of 48-volt (48V) systems will hit nine million units by 2025, with the rising popularity of stop-start technology as a primary source of growth. Several suppliers could take advantage of this, including Punch Powertrain.
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The Sint-Truiden, Belgium-headquartered company is currently developing a variety of transmissions with 48V applications, some of which are near completion while others are a nod to the future use of electrification in mobility.
Flourish in fuel economy
Punch Powertrain has two outlooks on 48V technology; according to Gert-Jan Vogelaar, Strategic Marketing Director, the company is running both short-term and long-term development programmes. “At the moment, we have a few applications in preparation on our current transmission, which will be a P0 48V application,” he explained. “The first will be launched in 2017. Our new continuously variable transmission (CVT), the VT5, also has a P0 application that will be presented at the 2017 Shanghai Auto Show. That’s what we consider short-term.”
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Every OEM will choose the most appropriate solution for their needs. They can either choose to sell PHEVs or BEVs that offer high efficiency gains, but come with much higher price tags, or they can sell more 48V solutions Automotive Megatrends Magazine
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48-volt systems
All kinds of things can be done with the help of 48V systems. It opens the door for improvements in powertrain efficiency and reductions in emissions, but some of the most interesting benefits are found in additional systems outside of the powertrain
As for the long-term, Vogelaar explained that Punch is developing a new family of transmissions. “The second,” he said, “will be a low torque version, and is being developed with a P2 48V system included. But it will be another couple of years before that’s in production.” The main advantage that 48V systems bring to vehicle design is the fuel efficiency gain, an ever-more important issue when considering the increasingly stringent regulations surrounding fuel economy and emissions. Take, for example, China. In this, Punch’s primary target market for its 48V transmission solutions, fuel economy is an extremely important aspect of developing new vehicle technology. “The same applies in other markets,” explained Vogelaar, “but it’s such a critical piece of the equation in China, because China is really aggressive in the way its moving forward with vehicle fuel economy. The legislation is set to get stricter by about 8% every year.”
Enabling freedom
When looking ahead to future fuel economy targets in China, Vogelaar thinks 48V systems could be essential in helping OEMs to continue selling models in the world’s largest automotive market. This is because each company must comply with fleet-wide fuel economy standards. “The targets limit what OEMs can or cannot bring to market,” Vogelaar
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explained. “If the company doesn’t comply, it can’t bring a new vehicle into the market, or won’t receive permission for production capacity. The end consumer may not care so much about fuel economy, especially with fuel prices at the level they are now, but their options will be limited by legislation.” Electrification is considered to be one of the best ways to improve fleet average fuel consumption. As well as opting to use 48V technology, OEMs could try to sell more plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) or battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Recent statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) suggest that sales are rising sharply in both segments. In fact, a total of 507,000 so-called new energy vehicles (NEVs) were sold across the country during 2016, up from 331,092 in 2015. Vogelaar does not consider the PHEV and BEV segments as a threat to future uptake of 48V technology. “Every OEM will choose the most appropriate solution for their needs,” he noted. “They can either choose to sell PHEVs or BEVs that offer high efficiency gains, but come with much higher price tags, or they can sell more 48V solutions. For us, that means we must work on a wide range of solutions, from conventional transmissions to 48V applications and pure electrics.”
No silver bullet
48V systems could also have their place in markets outside of China, Vogelaar suggested. Punch, he explained, has
analysed the potential impact of 48V systems on nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions – an issue that is currently particularly poignant in the European automotive market. “We did an extensive investigation into whether a CVT system would be a better fit for reducing NOx than a dual-clutch transmission (DCT),” he recalled. “Our findings suggested that there isn’t much of a difference. But when using a 48V option, we found we could add torque without moving the combustion engine into working points with higher NOx emissions. This can result in a NOx reduction of approximately 20%.” Although this is a significant reduction, Vogelaar acknowledged that NOx emissions need to be reduced even further to be in line with future European standards: “48V is therefore not a silver bullet. I don’t expect that OEMs will bring NOx emissions down within the limits required by legislation by using 48V systems alone, but it’s a step in the right direction.”
Higher voltage, lower price
As well as improvements to fuel economy and emissions reduction benefits, Vogelaar was keen to emphasise that 48V systems come at a low cost relative to PHEV or BEV systems. At the same time, the higher voltage in comparison to 12V systems opens up opportunities for efficiency gains elsewhere in the vehicle, not just in the powertrain.
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48-volt systems
Beyond 2020, we could see some integrated solutions. For example, we might see transmissions designed from scratch with the actuation system based on 48V. This could potentially ensure dramatic improvements in powertrain efficiency
“While automakers search for the most cost-effective solutions to continue reducing fuel consumption and emissions, as well as providing the electrical power needed for the everincreasing feature sets of new vehicles, 48V electrical systems will play an important role,” explained Sam Abuelsamid, Senior Research Analyst at Navigant Research. “A 48V mild hybrid is estimated to provide 70% of the benefit of a high-voltage hybrid at 30% of the cost while boosting electrical power available in the vehicle from 2.5kW to 10kW.”
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With this boost in electrical power, systems such as electric power steering, air conditioning and lighting could
become even more efficient. This has already been demonstrated in some models, such as Audi’s SQ7, which features a 48V system to provide power for the air conditioning as well as an electrically driven supercharger. “All kinds of things can be done with the help of 48V systems,” Vogelaar affirmed. “It opens the door for improvements in powertrain efficiency and reductions in emissions, but some of the most interesting benefits are found in additional systems outside of the powertrain. With this kind of synergy, the fuel economy gains could be significant.” The full benefit of 48V systems in the powertrain will be realised beyond 2020,
We designed transmissions that work without any electric oil pumps and could be used in mild hybrid configurations. This means they’re also set up for the inclusion of 48V applications
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believes Vogelaar. “That’s when we could see some integrated solutions,” he predicted. “For example, we might see transmissions designed from scratch with the actuation system based on 48V. This could potentially ensure dramatic improvements in powertrain efficiency.”
Plug’n’play
As well as the technology’s more obvious benefits, such as fuel economy and acting as an enabler for other technologies, 48V systems do not require a dramatic change in vehicle design or manufacturing. Instead, OEMs need simply to switch their 12V system with a 48V system, and ensure that the other applications are compatible with the higher voltage. When VT2 was launched almost ten years ago, few in the automotive industry were talking about the potential for 48V systems. However, there was development in the area of mild hybridisation. Punch Powertrain found itself in a sweet spot, “because we designed transmissions that work without any electric oil pumps and could be used in mild hybrid configurations,” Vogelaar noted. “This means they’re also set up for the inclusion of 48V applications.” Including 48V technology in transmissions requires only minimal changes in terms of design, because Punch’s VT2 and VT3 transmissions were originally designed for a mild hybrid application, concluded Vogelaar. “They were basically ready for 48V systems from the start. We always had electrification in mind.”
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Vehicle software
Safety and security: the core of critical system design
Michael Nash talks to Dan Mender from Green Hills Software about the importance of considering safety and security when designing connected vehicle features dvances in connected car technology has led to OEMs designing into vehicles a host of new connected features, linked in a variety of ways including Bluetooth and, increasingly, Wi-Fi. According to a report by consulting firm McKinsey & Company, the global market for connected car components and services will rise from €30bn (US$32.63bn) to €170bn by 2020.
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However, consumers are ever more concerned about the security of connected cars. The McKinsey report includes results from a survey in which 54% of respondents said they would not even consider buying a connected car for fear of hacking.
From the ground up
This reflects the need for OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers to ensure safety is at the top of the list when it comes to designing new connected car features. “Safety and security is not being considered from the beginning, which is a big cause for concern,” Dan Mender, Vice President of Business Development at Green Hills Software, explained to Megatrends. “It simply cannot be an afterthought for any connected system, but instead must be the very core of the design. This means that safety measures can’t be patchedin at a later date like they are on a desktop computer.” Some of the operating systems that are being used by Tier 1s and OEMs to design new connected car features are
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inherently unsafe, he continued. Linux, for example, has around 5,000 security vulnerabilities that are widely known. “Every three days, a new vulnerability in Linux is reported. To use this as the basis for connectivity in a critical application is suicide. I’m not suggesting that companies shouldn’t use Linux, but they need to use it in the manner for which it was intended – and that’s absolutely not the operation of safetycritical systems.” Tier 1 suppliers provide electronic control units (ECUs) to OEMs for various different systems, from the brake controls to the human-machine interface (HMI). ECU is a generic term for an embedded system that controls an electric system or subsystem, with most new cars having around 80 in total. While Tier 1s are extremely good at developing these ECUs with certain functions and offering them to their customers, said Mender, there is a need for an adjoining system that differentiates between all the various types of ECU in a vehicle. “One of the major trends that we’re seeing is ECU consolidation and mixed criticality functions,” he revealed. “Non-critical features, like infotainment systems, are being put alongside critical features such as advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) within a single system, interacting and working together. We need to provide a platform that can deliver freedom from interference and separation of critical and non-critical features.”
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Vehicle software Essentially, ensuring ADAS technology runs smoothly and reliably is vitally important, or ‘critical’, because failure or malfunction could have fatal consequences for the driver, passengers and other road users. Other features, such as infotainment systems or telematics, are non-critical.
Essential in autonomous
The number of critical systems will rise dramatically with the rollout of autonomous vehicle technology. This is because most, if not all, of the systems in the car will be connected in some shape or form to ensure they can function without physical input. “When you start getting to Level 4 and Level 5 autonomy, there will be challenges we haven’t addressed yet in designing those systems,” Mender observed. “For example, there may not be a licensed driver in the vehicle when it is driving down the road. This means that we must be absolutely sure that the system can work safely, reliably and without failure, because otherwise the car could get stuck in the middle of a very busy and dangerous highway.” Level 4 autonomous vehicles and beyond must be connected to the Internet, he continued, as they will need to access the Cloud to obtain data and information. This makes them inherently vulnerable to hacking, unless each of the systems used in the car is designed and developed with security and safety in mind from the very beginning.
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The number of companies already demonstrating autonomous driving technology on public roads today, and
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ADAD Algorithms
All safety and security software (ASIL A-D) are securely separated from the “wild, wild west” and from each other.
Crypto
Rear View Camera
Digital Instrument Cluster
Vehicle Bus
OpenGL OpenVG
(CAN, AVB, LIN, ...)
In-Vehicle Infotainment
Integrity Multivisor (virtualization based on certified INTEGRITY RTOS technologies) Automotive Microprocessor/SoC
Safety and security is not being considered from the beginning, which is a big cause for concern
autonomous car concepts at trade shows, “is all the result of prototyping,” Mender emphasised. “They are not production-ready cars, even if they have the ability to drive down the highway or navigate through busy city streets.” Many of these demonstration vehicles, he added, use a Linux operating system. “This means that the cars won’t have the level of safety and security needed for Level 4 and 5 autonomous driving,” said Mender. “Instead, it’s just a way for OEMs and Tier 1s to show that they have some fancy hardware.”
Software and simulation Various approaches could help to ensure critical systems are reliable, robust and safe from hacks, said Mender. “The hardware-centric nature of traditional Tier 1s is evolving, and some are doing better than others by taking a more softwarecentric view,” Mender acknowledged. “As a software company, we are working with global OEMs and Tier 1s to help them make that transition from being hardware-centric to software-centric.”
We are seeing a major trend of OEMs migrating to use embedded virtualisation for mixed-criticality ECU consolidation
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Automotive Megatrends Magazine
Vehicle software Green Hills Software, he continued, has experience in providing a platform that can help differentiate critical from non-critical systems. Much of this experience was gained in the medical industry, and Mender thinks the same methods are applicable to the automotive industry.
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“Virtualisation is the basis for this,” he stated. “We’ve been focused on embedded virtualisation for over 15 years, which is based upon our real-time operating system called Integrity. It’s not a whole new product or area for us, but it’s absolutely vital. We are seeing a major trend of OEMs migrating to use embedded virtualisation for mixedcriticality ECU consolidation.”
Department of Transportation’s (DOT) National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) issued a proposed guidance document that highlights best practices to address cyber security issues in the automotive industry. The document outlines a number of key areas, such as information sharing, vulnerability reporting and self-auditing. The scope is broad, said NHTSA, and is “intended to cover cybersecurity issues for all motor vehicles and therefore applicable to all individuals and organisations manufacturing and designing vehicle systems and software.” Mender thinks this broad scope essentially means that the guidelines
As a software company, we are working with global OEMs and Tier 1s to help them make that transition from being hardware-centric to software-centric
Integrity provides vehicle manufacturers and Tier 1 suppliers with a single platform for the development of both critical and non-critical systems. It relies on a technology called microkernel, which ensures the various different ECU functions in a vehicle can be safely separated. Numerous other suppliers also offer virtualisation for product development, but in a very different form. Mender thinks many of these companies have developed virtualisation “in a way that hasn’t been designed with safety and security as a forethought.” Instead, he sees these tools as merely adding complexity, and also “adding another attack surface for hackers, because it comes with a new code that hasn’t been certified.”
Written in regulation
One of the main problems surrounding the development of connected and autonomous car features is that they are not regulated from a security standpoint. In October 2016, the US
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are “open to interpretation.” Also, the best practices are merely guidelines as opposed to written in legislation. They are not mandated, which means there is no penalty for companies that disregard them. It could take a long time for authorities to enforce an effective and accurate set of regulations that govern cyber security in the automotive industry. Such regulations, said Mender, need to be “strong enough to really dictate the exact level of security that is put in place for both critical and non-critical systems.” However, he believes that much can be learned from other sectors, such as the aviation industry. “The US government already uses a set of well-known and established standards around safety and security here, making sure that all systems are designed, tested and verified with security at the forefront,” Mender said. “The automotive industry does not have to solve this problem from scratch. Instead, it needs to take advantage of the lessons learned in other industries before reusing and re-purposing the architectures and techniques.”
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Connected Car California 2017
No car unconnected – talking points from Connected Car California 2017 The smartphone-on-wheels analogy is hardly a new one, but it has proven robust. With more and more consumers demanding in-car connected services, the very idea of an unconnected car is fast becoming economically unviable. And yet experts gathered at Connected Car California 2017, an event hosted by Automotive Megatrends, agreed: the industry, and society at large, has only just begun to reap the potential beneďŹ ts of connectivity. Here, Xavier Boucherat presents his main takeaways from that event
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Automotive Megatrends Magazine
Connected Car California 2017
Connectivity will change how OEMs do business… OEMs may have no choice but to transform their business as a result of connectivity – that was the message from Kia’s Henry Bzeih. To date, the product-centric automotive industry has measured success in terms of vehicle
...and how OEMs build cars Connectivity means OEMs will need to design future-proof vehicles. As Toyota InfoTechnology Center’s John Kenney suggested, cars will have to be organic, re-programmable devices that can take advantage of further innovation after they leave the factory via over-the-air updates. Ford’s Don Butler agreed, but underlined that this would require a major change in mindset. Unlike mechanical engineers, who develop products to specifications, technology engineers need to factor in future changes: “If there’s a certain amount of processing power and memory needed to accomplish functions, it’s wrong to spec to just that – without extra headroom, there will be no way to update features.” Similarly, OEMs – traditionally the hardware manufacturers – will need to embrace practices developed in the software world. Paul Asel of Nokia Growth Partners pointed out that a component like an airbag module can never afford to fail. But with new connected experiences, he believes OEMs must not be afraid to trial new ideas, let them fail and move on quickly.
sales and market share. This is unlikely to fly with debt-ridden millennials, who won’t hesitate to opt for the reliable and affordable mobility options that connectivity enables, such as carsharing. According to Audi of America’s
Anupam Malhotra, “The connectivity business model doesn’t focus on one transaction at the retail level. Instead, it’s the number of transactions that happen over multiple owner cycles where the vehicle is rented, or shared.”
DSRC is coming (but it’s not the only solution) New cars already make use of multiple connectivity forms, including cellular, Bluetooth and Wi-Fi, but tomorrow’s cars will also require a standardised language for vehicle-tovehicle (V2V) communication. Multiple speakers agreed that NHTSA is likely to mandate direct
short-range communication (DSRC) – the Agency is already proposing mandating new V2V capability for all new vehicles by 2023. Some cellular industry groups, such as the 5G Automotive Association (5GAA), argue that DSRC is out of date, and that cellular vehicle-toeverything (V2X) communication could
achieve lower latencies. Looking beyond dependency on any one technology, Mindtree’s Prasanna Gopal suggested a combination of technologies. DSRC and 5G could co-exist in many situations, he said, enabling the industry to overcome coverage challenges and standardisation issues.
New technologies, new business opportunities Connectivity will also create business opportunities for nonautomotive players, for example in the sphere of infotainment. Michelle Avery, VP Automotive Products & Strategy at Aeris anticipates a variety of approaches, dependent upon vehicle type. Municipal buses, for example, will require a broadcast medium
providing information, while chauffeured services might require personalised, on-demand content. There will also be space for companies looking to help make the world’s ever-growing cities a smarter, safer, less stressful place for society. For example, a network of connected vehicles which
could recognise empty spaces on the road, combined with connected infrastructure, could help to create smart parking solutions. Automated payment solutions for carparks, bridges and toll roads could further speed up the flow of traffic, whilst improved car-sharing models could increase utilisation rates and take cars off the road.
The self-driving car – the ultimate connected car? Many agree that an autonomous car cannot operate in isolation, particularly in urban environments. Whilst sensor technology is always improving, complex processing systems and reduced performance in poor weather conditions sstill create issues that need to be overcome. Solving these could be just one of the roles for
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vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) and V2X communication. “The biggest advantage of V2I is that it brings in pre-processed data,” said Savari’s Ravi Puvvala. This data can be used by vehicles way ahead of typical crash scenarios such as four-way intersections. “V2X allows communication with traffic lights, around corners, and other use cases
that are simply not possible on standard sensors.” Ultimately, it could enable capabilities that lend substance to Avery’s surprise suggestion: that human-driven cars could be banned from public roads a decade from now. It was the boldest statement of the event, but on reflection, perhaps not that far-fetched.
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Platooning
V2V and the Cloud - essential for platooning Peloton Chief Executive Josh Switkes outlines the importance of multiple connectivity in platooning systems, and why the technology will first arrive in North America. By Xavier Boucherat ne of the key technologies that improved vehicle connectivity will enable in the trucking industry is platooning. Benefits of the technology, which allows heavy-duty trucks to safely follow each other at close distances, are well documented – closing the distance between trucks reduces the aerodynamic drag on both a lead vehicle and those in its wake, meaning sizeable fuel-efficiency boosts. In addition, the self-driving technology that goes hand-in-hand with platooning will improve safety on the road, for both drivers and other road users. The average human driver takes around a
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second to react and apply brakes on the road; platooning systems can do this within a hundredth of a second. Whilst autonomous vehicle technology such as sensors will be an essential part of any platooning system, it is important to attach equal weight to the role of connectivity, says Josh Switkes, Chief Executive of Peloton Technology. Switkes’ company develops and offers a platooning system which makes use of sensing, communications and data, and the company is on target to begin a commercial roll-out of its systems later this year in North America.
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Platooning
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In several ways, North America is the best initial region for platooning. For example, distances on the highway in America are much longer compared with Western Europe
Platooning technology is on the verge of reaching maturity, and has already begun enjoying public visibility. In 2016, the Dutch government initiated The European Truck Platooning challenge, and orchestrated a high-profile demo in April. A number of platoons travelled across the continent to the Dutch port of
Maasvlakte, with some clocking up distances of over 2,000 km (1,240 miles) on public roads. But Peloton, which has been involved in a number of North American trials, is convinced the technology will rise to prominence in its home market. “In
several ways, North America is the best initial region for platooning,” suggests Switkes. Of course, he adds, it will expand from there, but the benefits seem clear: “For example, distances on the highway in America are much longer compared with Western Europe. Furthermore, you rarely drive for long in Western Europe without passing through or near a city, whereas in the US you can drive hundreds of miles without getting close to one.” Longer highway stretches typically mean higher average speeds, in which aerodynamic drag becomes more of an issue that needs addressing. Other factors making the North American market particularly suitable for the rollout of platooning technology include the large size of fleets, where companies may run up to 30,000 vehicles – much higher than in Europe.
Closing the gap between trucks reduces aerodynamic drag on all vehicles in the platoon. As well as the sizeable fuel-efficiency boosts, the autonomous drive technology improves safety for drivers and other road users www.automotivemegatrends.com
The connected fleet
One of Peloton’s key interests in the sector is connectivity. As Switkes explains, there are two major forms of
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Platooning connectivity that will enable the company’s system. One of these is vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) connectivity which runs between the individual trucks in a platoon, made possible via dedicated short-range communications (DSRC), specifically designed for the automotive sector. Whilst the ability of Peloton’s radar sensor is an important component that can still outperform a human, the processing involved means that sensing systems alone may not be able to respond in time to avoid a collision when required.
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Truck-to-truck communication is key because it can provide data to trucks behind the leader much sooner and more reliably than a sensor can alone
“Truck-to-truck communication is key because it can provide data to trucks behind the leader much sooner and more reliably than a sensor can alone,” says Switkes. “For example, a rear truck could receive information on when the brakes on the front truck are being applied. A fraction of a second later, that front truck will physically slow down, and it’s not until another fraction of a second later that a sensor can reliably detect that slow-down.” Reliability and accuracy are important considerations. V2V communication can give a rear truck accurate data on the strength and nature of the braking. By contrast, a sensor can only detect slowdown, and struggles to identify the difference between the brakes being applied and a driver taking their foot off the gas. Figuring this out means another delay, and at close distances there might be no time for such a delay.
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In addition to V2V connectivity, a second essential component in platooning is Cloud connectivity via cellular and Wi-Fi communications. Peloton makes use of a network-operations centre (NOC) which tracks each truck’s exact location, and makes recommendations for platooning
where appropriate. “The Cloud authorises and supervises the process,” says Switkes. “So we only authorise a platoon when it meets certain conditions. If the weather is severe, we can exclude trucks from entering platooning mode.” In addition, platooning can only be activated
We’ve found that platooning actually makes things easier for road users. It’s easier to drive around a set of platooning trucks than it is a set of manuallydriven trucks
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Automotive Megatrends Magazine
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Platooning
The next step is higher levels of automation for following-trucks
along certain roads and under certain traffic conditions. Once activated, the NOC continuously analyses the situation and adjusts the distance between the trucks to achieve an optimal balance between safety and efficiency. There are also opportunities in which V2V-connectivity can work with the Cloud. Using sensors and continuous communication, trucks can build up an accurate picture of the capabilities of trucks behind the leader. One important example is braking distance. This could later allow for the intelligent ordering of trucks within a platoon, sending the better-performing truck to the back, and improving safety. The likely mandating of DSRC for passenger cars, along with the everincreasing use of cellular communications in vehicles, means drivers could receive alerts on where platoons are operating and where they may appear. This could potentially help the public warm to the idea of heavy-duty trucks autonomously cruising down the highway in tight formation.
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On the issue of public acceptance, Switkes is confident. “It’s a very important area, but on the whole, we don’t see any big issues,” he asserts. “To begin, much of where platooning will be allowed is not where the majority of general public driving is done. We’re talking interstates – the major US highways outside of cities, extended stretches of which are not a usual feature of the daily commute. “In addition,” he continues, “what we’ve found is that platooning actually makes things easier for road users. It’s easier to drive around a set of platooning trucks than it is a set of manually-driven trucks. We think the public will see this and learn from it quickly.” Peloton has built the system to handle situations such as cut-ins, where drivers move in to the gap between platooning trucks.
Automating value
Besides connectivity, the other important dimension of platooning is self-driving capability. Peloton’s initial technology automates only accelerating
and braking, which for now is helpful from a regulatory perspective as the laws governing the use of autonomous vehicles – which differ widely from state to state – do not apply. But the company is already looking ahead to what more advanced offerings might look like. Eventually, says Switkes, trucks could steer themselves: “The next step is higher levels of automation for followingtrucks. The development of capabilities for the front truck will take longer, and for the time being they will still require a driver to deal with difficult situations. But more automation of rear trucks for certain portions of the journey is a certainty.” What is important for a supplier like Peloton, he says in conclusion, is offering value to fleet customers at each stop along the automation curve. Platooning will initially save on fuel and repair costs, and will later go on to save on labour costs. Full automation will also provide opportunities to fully optimise truck use in terms of routes and dispatch timing. It is not, he insists, automation for automation’s sake.
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Seamless urban mobility
Appeal of seamless transportation drives urban mobility evolution Remy Pothet, Partner at Le BIPE, and Isabelle Rio-Lopes, Global Mobility Expert for Kantar TNS outline the key findings of a recent survey into the likely future of mobility services ith 70% of the world’s population predicted to live in cities in 2050 and congestion, climate concerns and connectivity disrupting mobility, the need for improved urban travel is becoming ever more important.
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Singapore
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London
A major new study of how 24,000 people travel around urban areas, conducted by Kantar TNS for strategic consultancy firm Le BIPE has revealed that the mobility landscape of the future will be fundamentally different to what we know today.
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Tokyo
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Seoul
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Buenos Aires
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Moscow
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New York
Just as Airbnb has disrupted the travel industry and Deliveroo has unsettled restaurateurs, so the most noticeable disruption to conventional methods of mobility is emerging from the tech world. It is apparent that the emergence of new technologies, over economic or environmental concerns, is driving a major shift in the way the world’s population is navigating its biggest cities and dramatically changing global attitudes towards urban mobility and expectations for the future. Almost nine out of ten urban citizens carry out essential daily travel, with 75% of them now using apps to organise or guide their journeys.
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Shanghai
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Berlin
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Paris
Amidst the emergence of technology, there is a simultaneous change in driving habits. In Singapore, São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, London, Istanbul and Los Angeles, we are seeing the first signs of car abandonment due predominantly to cost, convenience and environmental concerns. Over a quarter
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World mobility offer: Top 10 cities
Source: World Mobility Observatory from Le BIPE and Kantar TNS
of people (27%) drive less today than they did six months ago; this figure rises to 29% in Shanghai, 34% in Paris, 37% in São Paulo and 43% in Mumbai and 24% in New York. One in three non-car owners also says that car ownership is an expensive hassle. From optimising the cost or convenience of a journey to hailing taxis and ridesharing, technology is becoming central to daily travel. The ability to access a ‘pay per ride’ journey with one tap on a phone app has revolutionised global mobility. 22% of people have adopted shared services as their most popular alternative to having their own car. Of these, car clubs like ZipCar are taking
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Seamless urban mobility
From optimising the cost or convenience of a journey to hailing taxis and ride sharing, technology is becoming central to daily travel
cities by storm; 13% of urban citizens now regularly ride-share and up to half of millennials in cities like London use e-hailing services such as Uber and Gett at least once a month. The advent of new technology has opened up more people’s minds to different mobility solutions. In Europe, for example, the use of carpooling expanded from 22% to 29% between 2013 and 2016, while professional car sharing increased from 4% to 7%. Car manufacturers and mobility players need to plan for this to keep ahead of the curve. For the most part, automotive brands have been quick to respond to this trend, with the likes of GM, VW and Toyota all investing in ride-hailing apps. We’ve also seen several brands, including BMW, Ford and Renault, invest millions in car-sharing projects. By 2025, ambitious investments in connected mass transit systems and non-motorised solutions will extend the urban mobility range and improve the travel experience. Automotive brands will need to offer seamless services in urban areas to meet aggressive regulatory policies and demand for mobility sharing. New business models will be required that encourage partnerships, foster joined up thinking and create opportunities for innovative collaboration. This has already happened to some extent with OEM carsharing initiatives, but it’s only the tip of the iceberg. Indeed, the road ahead for mobility cannot be mapped out by one industry alone. The environment in which vehicle manufacturers, airlines, rail networks and public transport providers operate will be shaped by one another, as well as by policymakers, town planners, environmental campaigners and NGOs. No view of the future can be complete unless it incorporates insights from each of these groups.
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Almost nine out of ten urban citizens carry out essential daily travel, with 75% of them now using apps to organise or guide their journeys
The world of mobility and all its stakeholders face a future that is likely to be fundamentally different from its past, a future that will be centred on the provision of a complete and seamless range of transportation services. As people have access to an increased variety of transportation alternatives, car
manufacturers will see their profits come from usership in addition to ownership. It is therefore clear that car brands, public transport networks and technology innovators need to collaborate, integrate and evolve, so that modern mobility solutions are connected, both digitally and among themselves.
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