Automotive Megatrends Magazine - Q4 2016 by Automotive World

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Welcome... ...to the Q4 2016 issue of Automotive Megatrends Magazine.

For a while, the mainstream auto industry seemed to be losing to the tech giants in the race for the connected car. The OEMs fought back, and 2016 became the year of the connected services sub-brand. But while the global OEMs talked about their future mobility brands, China's Geely went ahead and launched one. In a Megatrends exclusive, we talk to the CEO of Geely Auto about Lynk & Co.

This issue also features exclusives with Nikola Motors' CEO on revolutionary truck electriďŹ cation technology; LeMond Composites on a revolution in carbon ďŹ bre manufacturing; Stratasys on its new 3D printing technology: and Nvidia on AI, deep learning and autonomous driving.

Martin Kahl, Editor

Welcome

Automotive Megatrends Magazine ISSN: 2053 776X Publisher: Automotive Megatrends Ltd 1-3 Washington Buildings Stanwell Road, Penarth CF64 2AD, UK www.automotivemegatrends.com T: +44 (0) 2920 707 021 megatrends@automotiveworld.com Registered number: 08000516 VAT number: GB 171 5423 23 Managing Director: Gareth Davies Editor: Martin Kahl Contributors: Freddie Holmes Michael Nash Xavier Boucherat Fabrizio Arena Hiroto Suzuki Eric Kirstetter Wolf-Dieter Hoppe Daniele Spera Olivia Price-Walker Niranjan Thiyagarajan Daniel Rockey Mohammed Elayan Production: Michael Franklin Anmol Mothy

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Contents

Not another car brand: Geely CEO on Lynk & Co

The future of diesel engines – and how OEMs can shape it

Durability, reliability and lightweighting govern India’s CV development

Nikola Motors – the saviour of transportation?

Brick by brick: autonomous vehicles need rock-solid foundations

Model-based design crucial for securing ‘intricate system interplay’

Brought-in beats embedded in India’s connected car race

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Contents

39 Changing consumer demand forces powertrain evolution

Reverse innovation – it’s the way forward!

Game-changing tech, inﬁnite opportunities: 3D printing grows up

GPU sets auto industry on a deep learning curve

45 52

42 48 57

Cyber security, the bedrock of the entire automotive value chain

ALM+PLM = the future of product development

Interview: Connie Jackson, Chief Executive, LeMond Composites

To HAV and to hold: regulators embrace autonomous vehicles

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Geely Auto

Not another car brand: Geely CEO on Lynk & Co Several vehicle manufacturers have talked about launching new brands for connectivity and mobility services; Geely just went ahead and did it. Martin Kahl talks to An Conghui about the all-new Lynk & Co brand, its place in the Geely family, and its place in the global auto industry

ree2Move, EQ, Smart Mobility, Maven - 2016 has seen numerous mobility services sub-brands announced by major vehicle manufacturers tentatively preparing themselves for a future built around as yet untried and untested new business models.

These new brands will house activities such as ride sharing, parking services, connectivity and other new and growing servicebased business models, and will operate – depending on the OEM – with differing levels of branding formality and grille badging.

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Free2Move is PSA Group’s sub-brand for mobility services and new models; Daimler’s EQ will house a new generation of electric and connected vehicles; Smart Mobility is Ford’s offering, and GM’s strategy hinges around the Maven brand. At the time of writing, VW is yet to announce the name of its 13th brand, but it is expected to be a similar initiative. The cautious approach of these western OEMs – lengthy timelines, long-term aims and slow ramp-up – might just have been too restrained, however. The unveiling in Berlin in October 2016 of the all-new Lynk & Co

brand saw Huangzhou, China-based Geely Auto surge past the competition, with a physical product, a launch date and a clearly-deﬁned strategy built around smart mobility, sharing and connectivity. A new brand unveiled in Europe by a Chinese OEM for sale globally: clearly Geely is ready to launch a Chinese car brand for the world – but is the world ready for a Chinese car brand? “We don’t think of Geely Auto cars as ‘Chinese cars’,” An Conghui, President and Chief Executive of Geely Auto, tells Megatrends. “We design and

Geely Auto produce international cars that have a hint of where they came from. On all of Geely Auto’s Generation 3.0 cars you will see hints of Chinese history, architecture and culture. But while these are nice features, the overall experience the driver gets is of a global car. “Lynk & Co vehicles were devised from the outset to be European designed, European engineered and globally produced and marketed. The Lynk & Co vehicles will feature electriﬁed powertrains and will be the most connected cars in the world, designed for modern, urban, tech-savvy consumers.”

aims to sell 500,000 units between Q4 2017 – when the cars go on sale ﬁrst in China – and 2020. The company has good reason to be ambitious. Geely Auto enjoyed a record month in October, with sales growing 94% year-on-year to close to 100,000 units, and it has raised its 2016 sales target twice during the year, from 600,000 units to 650,000 units and then again to 700,000 units. For 2017, it has its sights set on a million units. Much of the design and engineering was done in Sweden at China Euro Vehicle Technology Center (CEVT),

and a sharing economy – is uncharted territory, making it difficult to guarantee success at this early stage, but essential to be ready. It’s a long game, indicates An. “With Lynk & Co we can come at this opportunity fresh and with a business model that is primed for today’s world. That means connectivity and flexibility in terms of how people purchase and use cars. We firmly believe this is the way the industry is going, and with Lynk & Co we want to get out ahead of that opportunity and take full advantage.” Developed to function without dealerships, a focus on a still-to-beannounced subscription contract and

We don’t think of Geely Auto cars as ‘Chinese cars’. On all of Geely Auto’s Generation 3.0 cars you will see hints of Chinese history, architecture and culture. But the overall experience is of a global car

Zero one - and counting The ﬁrst model – the 01 – is a compact SUV. Geely Auto’s parent company, Zhejiang Geely Holding Group (ZGH) acquired Volvo Car Corporation in 2010, and close collaboration between the Swedish and Chinese OEMs gives Lynk & Co access to Volvo and Geely’s jointly developed Compact Modular Architecture (CMA); the 01 and all future Lynk & Co models will sit on CMA. The company says the 01 is the most connected vehicle ever, thanks in part to partnerships with Microsoft, Alibaba, Ericsson, and of course, Volvo Car. Targeted at tech-savvy users who will buy the cars online or from owned stores in retail locations, the company

with a brief for the cars to have a north European feel; premium cars at accessible prices, they will be positioned between Geely and Volvo. CEVT is one of a number of global Geely locations. The company’s 10,000 engineers and 400 designers are located at global design studios in California, Shanghai, Gothenburg and Barcelona, and R&D centres in Gothenburg, Coventry, Hangzhou and Ningbo.

Preparing for the new (automotive) world order

The automotive industry’s new world order – based on, amongst other things, connectivity, mobility services

an emphasis on shared use and mobility services: Lynk & Co appears to have been conceived as a brand for people who don’t want to buy cars. “I wouldn’t say that Lynk & Co is for people that don’t want to buy a car,” counters An. “It is for people who want more flexibility over how they access their car, who might want to share it as they please with their friends, family or colleagues – or even rent it out to other Lynk & Co users. One of the ways we’re facilitating this is by moving towards a digital key. Physical keys are a thing of the past.” All Lynk & Co cars will be permanently connected to the Cloud, “making Lynk & Co cars a part of the

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Geely Auto

Lynk & Co vehicles were devised from the outset to be European designed, European engineered and globally produced and marketed

Internet of Things, allowing you to use the Internet when you are in the car or control your car remotely.” As for how to sell cars to a new generation of consumers in China and in the West, An says the company identified the key factor as being young people’s permanent online lifestyle. “They have become embedded in a connected world. People expect connectivity, not just when they are at home or at work, but also in their ‘third space’, their car. So it was natural and critical for us to capture that trend and develop a model that’s appealing to consumers.” Lynk & Co will have its own dedicated app market, open to developers with leading application programming interfaces (API) and software development kits (SDK) to create connectivity-related services and products. “Sharable locks are

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just one thing that we’re looking at, but as they say, the world is our oyster at this stage.”

The sharing economy

Car sharing is an important aspect of the Lynk & Co business model. “Think about it,” says An. “95% of the time cars sit around idle. What if there was a way to safely loan or share them out? It sounds less crazy than a few years ago as now we’re sharing our lives on social media, sharing our homes on AirBnB and sharing our musical tastes on Spotify. What if we could share our cars, too?” When it comes to the sharing economy, Lynk & Co can look to Geely Auto’s parent company for assistance. Zhejiang Geely Holding Group (ZGH) has for some time been exploring ride sharing. ZGH operates a 24,000vehicle service across 12 Chinese cities called Zuo Zhong You, which allows people to rent pure electric

micro cars for Yuan 20 to 25 (US$2.90 to US$3.63) per hour. Users can book cars over the phone or via the app, and collect a car from their local distribution centre. When ﬁnished, they return the car or drop it off at another centre. An cites the example of someone ﬂying from Shanghai to London. When they land, they need a car to visit a friend out in the suburbs and they can see from the Lynk & Co app that there is a car available at Heathrow Airport. As a part of the Lynk & Co network, they can rent that car for a period and return it later or to a pre-arranged place. Think of it as a community of Lynk & Co users, notes An. Another service that ZHG has established is Cao Cao, an ondemand ride-sharing service that runs predominantly with new energy or pure electric vehicles, mostly from Geely Auto, and uses directlyemployed drivers. Currently available

Geely Auto

The Lynk & Co vehicles will feature electriﬁed powertrains and will be the most connected cars in the world, designed for modern, urban, techsavvy consumers in ﬁve cities across China with over 8,000 cars in operation, the OEM has ambitions to grow Cao Cao further.

Heading downstream

As noted earlier, several OEMs have announced mobility services subbrands to house their downstream activities in an effort to capitalise on the revenue available to unrelated businesses once the vehicle has left the dealership. Many readers will remember with a wry smile or a grimace the efforts of vehicle manufacturers in decades past when they attempted to capture downstream revenue from car rental and vehicle servicing, for example. Companies that know how to make money selling cars are not necessarily able to generate sufficient revenue from selling services and packaged

concepts. Will all vehicle manufacturers be able to compete downstream in the automotive industry of the future? In China, Geely customers are already eagerly awaiting new Geely products, says An. “I think the Lynk & Co marketplace is unique to us – we control the APIs and SDKs and have opened them to developers. We’ve also implemented a great deal of security. Add to this the automotive ﬁnance company we have with the French bank BNP, which will initially serve Geely and Volvo dealerships, but is later expected to also go to other brands.”

Disruption

Some of the major OEMs might be intrigued if not concerned about the challenge laid down by Lynk & Co, but all vehicle manufacturers have

been rattled in recent years by attempts from non-automotive tech companies to enter the automotive industry. “The number of new entrants into the auto industry in the past few years is a testament to how exciting the sector is,” agrees An. “Tech companies are undeniably creative, but many people underestimate how high the threshold is in the auto industry and the long-term investment it requires in design, R&D, and operations. “Lynk & Co’s business model is unique to the industry. The current automotive business model of moving cars from the factory to the dealership to the end user is over 100 years old, and it is changing with the development of new technology.” For Lynk & Co, disruption is clearly the name of the game, and the company aims to challenge and redesign every link in the chain.

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Geely Auto

95% of the time cars sit around idle. What if there was a way to safely loan or share them out? It sounds less crazy than a few years ago as now we’re sharing our lives on social media, our homes on AirBnB and our musical tastes on Spotify Echoing comments made by many a senior executive on this subject, An says, “In many cases, we look at tech companies as potential partners rather than competitors. And the traditional industry is itself making significant progress in technology.” Success in the new mobility market means accepting and adapting to the culture surrounding new mobility. Concepts like open sourcing and sharing have long been alien to the automotive industry, yet they are at the heart of new mobility business.

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“The last few years have seen a real shift in the way auto companies think,” agrees An. “They are much more nimble and creative than they once were. And that’s come out of necessity, because the world and the way consumers look at cars is changing. Our cars are open and accessible to developers, and our APIs and SDKs are available to make the most of what is essentially a computer on wheels for our Lynk & Co brand. “We’re also working on the CMA architecture to develop new ways to

streamline production whilst bringing to market the most competitive products possible.”

Electriﬁed and autonomous

Not surprisingly, given China’s push on new energy vehicles, alternative powertrain energy is at the core of the Geely Auto Group strategy, says An. “In November 2015, we launched the Blue Geely Initiative in which we announced that 90% of our vehicles

Geely Auto will be new energy with pricing at the same level as traditional gasoline powertrains. This includes Lynk & Co vehicles.” The company plans to cut its ﬂeet average fuel consumption to under ﬁve litres per 100km (equivalent to 56mpg) in the short term, ahead of Chinese government requirements, and, notes An, “against the cries of our competitors who think this target is too difficult to achieve.” By 2020, the OEM is aiming to reduce its average fuel consumption from 1.8 to 1.5 litres per 100km of driving. “We’re really aiming to push the envelope of what can be achieved. Under the Blue Geely Initiative, we’re promoting three core technologies, namely HEV, EV, and PHEV. Around 65% of our sales will come from HEV and PHEV, and 35% from EV sales.” In EVs, the company has some experience, says An. “The Geely

Lynk & Co is for people who want more ﬂexibility over how they access their car, who might want to share it as they please with their friends, family or colleagues – or even rent it out to other Lynk & Co users

Emgrand EV sedan can already travel 253km (157 miles) in a combined environment, and around 330km at a steady highway speed for a cost of Yuan 223,000 (US$32,360), which the local and national government in certain regions will support up to 50%. Our next EVs will be lighter, charge faster and go even further per charge at a lower cost. In the Beijing area alone we’re selling around 1,500 Emgrand EVs per month, so I think we’re off to a good start.”

Also high on the priority list for both Lynk & Co and Geely Auto – indeed, “at the very core of our technology focus” – is autonomous driving. “For Lynk & Co, technology is at the very heart of the car. We have an alwaysconnected Cloud producing hundreds of gigabytes of data every single day, we will have high-end driver aids to assist the driver in everyday driving and eventually, when laws allow, we will move to full autonomous driving. The move to autonomous driving cannot be rushed. Thankfully we have

a close relationship with the world leaders in safety and autonomous driving – Volvo – so we will be able to share resources.”

The long game

Conceiving new business models and ideas is one thing – putting into motion concepts that will be crucial long-term but offer very little in the way of revenue generation in the near to medium term is a very different matter. An concurs: “Any business that wants

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Geely Auto

All Lynk & Co cars will sit on Volvo and Geely’s jointly developed Compact Modular Architecture (CMA)

The current automotive business model of moving cars from the factory to the dealership to the end user is over 100 years old, and it is changing with the development of new technology long-term success has to make longterm bets. And we’re fortunate to be coming at this from a healthy position, and with a history of making bold moves that paid off. “In the early 1990s, when our Founder and Chairman, Mr. Li Shufu, decided he wanted to get into the car business, state-owned enterprises were the only companies allowed to make cars. Just over two decades later, we are the largest privatelyowned car maker in China. In 2007, we revamped our entire brand approach, moving away from a focus on low cost toward beautifully designed, high-quality vehicles. If you look where we are now, it’s clear that move paid off too.”

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It could be argued that creating an entirely new brand adds complexity, rather than using Geely or Volvo. An explains the rationale behind the decision: “Geely Auto is positioned more as a mass market brand. We expect sales to be around 700,000 units this year and probably around 900,000 to one million next year.

The chairman has always pushed for the ‘Tiger to be returned to the mountain’. That means letting Volvo do what it does best – making the safest, most intelligent vehicles on the market. And that is working especially well – just look at Volvo’s sales ﬁgures, which are at an all-time high in the company’s 89-year history.”

“Lynk & Co is Geely Auto Group’s truly global offering, targeting the midmarket. Future Lynk & Co models will be sold in China, Europe, and the USA. So we let them go ahead with the latest technology and powertrains which will eventually be used in the Geely brand.

At the same time, the company’s chairman and founder is pushing for Geely Auto and Volvo to work together to maximise group synergy. There is much that Volvo can teach Geely Auto about R&D, and Geely Auto has plenty it can teach Volvo about supplier management and cost control, notes An, adding, “It’s a SinoSwedish win-win story.”

“Volvo is a brother company to Geely Auto Group, and it is also a teacher.

Zero emission trucks

Nikola Motors – the saviour of transportation? In an exclusive interview, Trevor Milton, CEO of Nikola Motors tells Megan Lampinen his company’s electric truck solution has ‘solved the biggest transportation problem in our history’ eavy-duty haulage is moving to hydrogen, according to Utah start-up Nikola Motors. Chief Executive Trevor Milton has heard the death knell for diesel and is leading the charge into a cleaner future in which both the vehicles and the production operations are powered by hydrogen.

"We've essentially solved the biggest transportation problem in our history," Milton told Megatrends, in an interview ahead of the Nikola One Class 8 heavy-duty truck’s public debut in December 2016. Fleets will have the choice between two versions of the Nikola One. The zero-emission variant features an electric drivetrain powered by a

custom-built hydrogen-electric 800volt fuel cell range extender. A second low-emission variant will feature a CNG range extender. "One is for countries that want zero emissions and the other is for countries that don't have a strict guideline," explained Milton. Targeted at the long-distance haulage segment, the truck can pull a full load of 80,000 lbs (36,387kg) over 1,200 miles (1,931 km) between fill-ups. "It's the biggest advancement our country has seen since the diesel engine," claimed Milton. "The diesel engine has been an incredible technology but it has not changed, for the most part, since its inception. Pollution, air quality and every other quality of life are all affected by

emissions. The biggest challenge we face in America right now is the pollution from the heavy duty trucks and trains. One of these gigantic trucks will pollute more than hundreds and hundreds of cars. Now we have to look at the next 100 years."

Vertical integration

Nikola's vision of the future entails production of not just zero-emission trucks but also the hydrogen that powers them. It intends to produce this hydrogen at its own solarpowered farms. "We will have to buy some of the hydrogen, but we're going to try to produce most of it ourselves," Milton said. The company intends to establish three hydrogen

Nikola Motors will start delivering trucks to customers for testing at the end of 2017

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Zero emission trucks

Front Radiator Assembly

Massive electric fans attached to world class radiators. These fans can scale through software to the correct RPM needed to keep the truck, batteries, cab, fuel cell, motors and gearboxes nice and cold under any circumstance. No more power take off units (PTO's), as seen in traditional diesel tractors. These electric motors are 95% efficient - a ﬁrst for the trucking industry.

Nikola™ Battery Storage System

There are over 32,000 individual lithium-ion cells welded together on the Nikola One™, resulting in a 320 kilowatt hour (kWh) battery pack. That is 3x the pack size of a Tesla Model S P90D.

Hydrogen Fuel System

The battery bank is charged by a fuel cell, which needs fuel. There is enough hydrogen on board to power this truck up to 1,200 miles without stopping to ﬁll up.

farms in the US, spaced evenly across the country to allow for close distribution. Its vehicle manufacturing operations will run partly off zero emission hydrogen energy as well. "Some of that hydrogen coming out of our hydrogen plant will be shipped in to the production facility and stored. That's how we create our energy on site. We will never be 100% zero emissions from beginning to end, but we will be as close as it's feasible for any company in the world to be. I don't know of anyone else doing this," he added. One of the reasons that Nikola Motors has managed to make a viable business case for a hydrogen heavy vehicle is because of the vertical integration of its scheme. "The entire process up to this point has never been economically feasible. Our advantage is

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Nikola™ Motor Gearbox / Steering Front End

A 14,000 lb front end, custom made to incorporate two electric motors and two gearboxes allowing for torque vectoring and best in class performance while providing a smooth ride for the driver

Chiller and Air Tanks

The 800 volt chiller provides cold water to cool the batteries and, like many parts on the truck, was custom built. The air tanks keep the backup air disc brakes DOT compliant and offer redundancy - another ﬁrst in the transportation industry.

“ 8

Rear Motor Gearbox Housing and Independent Suspension

This patent-pending, custom built housing can support up to 46,000 lbs. and holds both electric motors and gearboxes. It also helps support the ﬁrst ever Short Long Arm (SLA) suspension in the linehaul industry - creating a super smooth ride.

Power Electronics

The truck needs a sophisticated powerelectronics box to manage the energy the fuel cell produces. This custom built device took nearly a year to develop. It takes 200 kW of energy, cleans it up, then dumps it in the batteries at a constant 800V DC - keeping the batteries topped off when needed.

Fuel Cell

The fuel cell outputs nearly 300 kilowatts (kW) of clean energy straight to the batteries, keeping them charged. This proprietary fuel cell has the ability to turn on and off within seconds. The fuel cell runs on zero emission hydrogen.

5th Wheel

The innovative HOLLAND FWAL aluminum fifth wheel is the lightest weight standard duty fifth wheel in the industry. Lighter than competitive fifth wheels, the FWAL is designed for standard-duty applications and forged from the same alloy as Alcoa's aluminum truck wheels. The LowLube technology reduces customer maintenance time and costs, while keeping our environment cleaner.

We've essentially solved the biggest transportation problem in our history

that we are vertically integrated from beginning to end," said Milton. "We can make every part of this asset completely emission free, which allows us to cut our costs on all levels." In addition to the trucks and the hydrogen production stations, Nikola owns the solar company that provides the panels to produce the

hydrogen. "We're able to install the solar panels with our own teams. We're able to put in the hydrogen electrolysis plant at a much discounted rate," he elaborated. "It is the first time in the industry that someone has been able to bring both the chicken and the egg to the table at the same time, and that's really the advantage of what we have."

Zero emission trucks

The only route forward Zero-emission solutions come in various forms, but Milton expects that the industry will end up following its lead here. "We will be the ones that ﬁrst pave the way and then most of them will come on board. They will have to because there's no other way to develop a zero emission truck that has a range of more than 1,500 kilometres," he said.

“

Interest in pure battery electric heavy trucks has increased recently among some of the big names in the industry. Daimler has unveiled the Urban eTruck and Tesla's 'Master plan, Part Deux' calls for electriﬁcation across all segments, including heavy trucks.

pretty much worthless in the transportation world for heavy haul," said Milton. He suggests companies like Daimler may be settling for EV technology as a quick ﬁx to the zero-emission challenge: "They wanted zero emission, but they were just not as far along as we are with our technology. Essentially, Daimler settled for an easier solution rather than attacking the real problem.”

Floodgates to open

Even before its official public debut, Nikola had received orders for the One worth US$3bn. "By next year we could be many, many times that," predicted Milton. "Very few people have even

Fast and furious Nikola will start delivering the ﬁrst trucks to customers for testing at the end of 2017. "Once we start to build out that infrastructure, I think within ten years you won't even be able to buy a diesel in the US," he forecast. "People have a hard time grasping technology advancing that fast, but look where cell phones were ten years ago. Emissions are such a major problem around the world, that I personally believe cities will start banning diesels in ten years." The only hold-up has been a proven technology that works, an issue that Nikola Motors claims to have solved with its technology. "Ours will be out there at the end of next year," he said. Others will follow, but slowly.

I don't see battery electric trucks ever working. They might have some application, but a truck that can't get over 1,000 miles is pretty much worthless in the transportation world for heavy haul

Milton is sceptical. "If you're only going pure battery, your range is extremely limited," he said. Daimler's truck, for example, is limited to a 125-mile range. "That doesn't do anyone any good," commented Milton. "Daimler plans to use that in a 'last mile' application, taking over from a diesel truck for the ﬁnal part of a journey into the city. Well, now you've just doubled your costs in order to get a product to the end user." With the Nikola One, the vehicle can travel long-haul and enter the city for ﬁnal delivery. "I don't see battery electric trucks ever working. They might have some application, but a truck that can't get over 1,000 miles is

seen this truck yet. Once we unveil it to the world, the floodgates will open." Milton said Nikola is already being courted for its expertise, but it's not biting just yet. "We are approached almost on a daily basis," he confirmed. For now, Nikola's focus is on building the vehicles for the roughly 8,000 orders it has received and setting out the supporting infrastructure. "We're not too worried about partnering with someone. We've made our own business case. We have our own orders and our own profits," said Milton. "We are not dependent on someone to come in and make this thing work with us."

"Most of these other companies are going to sit back and wait to see how we do. If you look at the big companies like Daimler, they have done some fuel cell technology in the past, but primarily these guys are not risk takers. They pride themselves in saying that they are first to market but they never are," said Milton. "They wait for someone else to prove it and then they go spend billions to catch up. Or they just buy you." But Nikola Motors is not for sale. "This needs to happen, and we are doing it," emphasised Milton. "We are the only ones with enough guts to do so."

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Future of diesel engines

The future of diesel engines – and how OEMs can shape it Despite an anticipated decline in the overall diesel market share in the years to 2030, demand for diesel is expected to continue to remain above 50% in medium-upper car segments. By Fabrizio Arena, Hiroto Suzuki, Eric Kirstetter, Wolf-Dieter Hoppe and Daniele Spera of Arthur D. Little imits on emissions in the automotive sector are expected to be tightened in the future, with the US and the EU leading the regulation pattern. Although diesel accounts for less than 1% of US car registrations each year, it makes up about 50% of annual car registrations in the EU.

emissions of air pollutants, together with the energy, industry, commercial, institutional and household sectors, as well as agriculture and waste. The transportation sector has considerably reduced its emissions over the past decade, yet it is still the largest contributor of NOx emissions, accounting for 46% of total EU-28 emissions. Diesel-powered vehicles account for 80% of total NOx transportation emissions, ranking as one of the main targets of governmental emissions reduction policies.

implementation of relatively new technologies, which results in higher costs. The most likely scenario is a progressive diesel market share decrease by 2030, while keeping a relevant positioning (signiﬁcantly above 50%) in medium-upper passenger car segments.

The ‘diesel’ environmental issue

However, when compared to gasoline, emissions controls for diesel exhaust – mainly for oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) – are more complex and require the

The transportation sector is one of the main sources contributing to

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Future of diesel engines For NOx emissions from diesel cars, limits were reduced by 68% from Euro 4 to Euro 6; however, recent analyses indicated that ‘real-world’ performance – on-road driving under normal conditions – is much worse than a typical performance measured by ‘official’ laboratory tests using the NEDC driving cycle. This is true for a set of pollutants, not only for NOx; nevertheless, the amount of CO2 (which is linearly correlated with fuel consumption) produced on the road can be 20-30% higher than the ﬁgure indicated by official measurements, and the differences are even greater for NOx emissions, especially for diesel vehicles. In the latter case, reallife measurements show that NOx emissions can be, on average, as much as four or ﬁve times higher than shown in laboratory measurements. NOx emissions are, then, a major issue for diesel engines. And it is mainly a European OEM issue since nearly 50% of yearly new EU car registrations are diesel powered. The situation is different from other major markets; the US, Chinese and Japanese markets are all dominated by gasoline-powered cars, with diesel cars playing almost no role, the exception being India, where diesel currently has a market share of about 50%.

More stringent EU regulations

The EU is currently working not only on tightening emission reduction rules (standard Euro 6 up to Euro 6d), but also on improving testing procedures for pollutant emissions and fuel consumption of light-duty vehicles. Compared to tests under laboratory conditions, light-duty vehicles have signiﬁcantly higher emissions when on the road, and two new testing procedures are currently being developed to assess the performance of vehicles under real-life conditions: Real Driving Emissions (RDE) for measuring regulated pollutants, and the Worldwide Harmonized Light-duty Vehicles Testing Procedure (WLTP) for measuring CO2 emissions. The European Commission wants to introduce the new mandatory RDE test procedure for type approval of light-duty vehicles by 2017. According to the new procedure, emissions will

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be measured on the road by a Portable Emission Measurement System (PEMS). This new procedure will imply signiﬁcant changes for OEMs and higher costs; since exhaust-control systems will have to perform under a broad range of operating conditions, the logistics of type-approval processes will have to be restructured and new measurement technology will be applied.

Diesel powertrain eﬃciency costs

Diesel powertrain efficiency improvement will be an important lever for European OEMs in the race to meet EU emissions targets, either for CO2 or NOx. In both cases, though, diesel powertrain efficiency improvement could require higher costs for emission control. A reduction of 35g CO2/km is needed to meet the 2021 emission target of 95g CO2/km. Data published by the EEA indicates that relevant contributions will come from ICE powertrain efficiency improvement

(mainly from diesel), weight reduction, progress in aerodynamic drag and rolling resistance and alternative propulsion development. It is clear that a complete CO2 reduction strategy should include a ‘diesel focus’ in order to ﬁll in the gap, and investments will be required in R&D. Analysis shows that the relationship between diesel car NOx emissions and related emission-control costs is non-linear: emission-control costs necessary to be compliant with Euro 6 limits are more than three times those required for Euro 3. Diesel engines require higher costs to control and reduce polluting emissions than gasoline engines. For gasoline engines, emission-control technologies (air-fuel control and catalytic after-treatment) have reached a high level of maturity, and the incremental compliance cost is low, even for more stringent standards. On the other hand, emission-control technologies for diesels (involving air management, fuel injection, aftertreatment) are more complex and require higher costs.

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Future of diesel engines

Diesel engines are expected to lose market share progressively, especially in lower car segments, although they will still play a relevant role in the medium-upper vehicle segments Diesel engines – future scenarios Here we break down the main scenarios for the future of diesel engines, according to market trends, policy and regulations, and technology: Market trends: Diesel will remain attractive to consumers because total cost of ownership (TCO) will become a strong buying criterion. TCO models (including depreciation, fuel costs, insurance, maintenance, fees and taxes, repairs) show that diesel vehicles can have a lower TCO than their respective gasoline counterparts in a three- to five-year time frame. Policy and regulations: Analysis has shown that the problem of vehicles generating higher emissions on the road than in laboratory conditions affects mainly diesel vehicles, and specifically NOx emissions. On 12 February 2016, the European Council gave the green light for the adoption of the second package of rules to introduce RDE tests, establishing emission limits (80mg/km) and two implementation dates: the first step will apply from September 2017 with a 2.1 conformity factor, and the second from 2020 with a 1.5 conformity factor. Conformity factors introduce a higher allowance than the established limit, and the aim is to give manufacturers time to gradually adapt to the new RDE rules. Technology: After-treatment technologies are available to reduce harmful emissions from diesel

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engines (DOC – diesel oxide catalyst, DPF – diesel particulate ﬁlter, SCR – selective catalytic reduction, LNT – lean NOx trap), but they require more investment, leading eventually to higher costs. Because of the increasing costs of being ‘clean’, diesel engines are expected to lose market share progressively, especially in lower car segments. That notwithstanding, they will help match the targets of the emission-limit standards and will continue to play a relevant role in the medium-upper vehicle segments.

Further insight from the industry

Advances in R&D have made it possible to increase engine performance without increasing displacement, so both premium and mass-market OEMs are reshaping their powertrain portfolios, including a higher proportion of smaller engines. In particular, all premium car manufacturers are introducing basic engines of 2000cc, as well as in the medium-upper segments, which in turn reduces the number of cylinders across their entire powertrain line-ups (from 8 to 6 or from 6 to 4, with a single cylinder volume of about 500cc). The ﬁnal effect will be engines with higher efficiency and lower fuel consumption. And mass-market car manufacturers are focusing on smaller engines, namely those of 1.6- and 1.8-litre displacement, and turbochargers that

will provide customers with both the driving experience they desire and lower fuel consumption due to lower displacement.

Conclusion

In the context of increasingly stringent automotive emissions regulations, ‘clean’ diesel will still play an important role in helping OEMs reach emissions targets in the next five to ten years. Yet clean diesel will require higher costs; diesel engines are expected to lose market share progressively, especially in lower car segments, although they will still play a relevant role in the medium-upper vehicle segments. Since diesel will mainly remain an issue for the EU (and, as noted above, India), despite European manufacturers’ efforts to push diesel technology in other markets, the strategic action that OEMs will need to take if they wish to compete in the European market falls into two categories – technology and market. On the technology side, vehicle manufacturers must develop and implement the required technologies to ﬁll the gap with more stringent standards and RDE test procedures at a reasonable commercial cost for the ﬁnal client; and they must accelerate the deployment of alternative powertrain solutions, for example electric or hybrid cars. On the market side, OEMs should shift the diesel focus to medium-upper car segments, and convince endcustomers and policy makers that diesel is not an environmental issue.

Autonomous driving

Brick by brick: autonomous vehicles need rock-solid foundations In order to avoid self-driving vehicle catastrophes later, there are certain things OEMs must get right now, says Wind River. By Xavier Boucherat istory might well look back on 2016 as the year when autonomous driving moved from science ﬁction to inevitability – that is, in the eyes of the public. The automotive industry has been pushing the shift for several years, and some companies have been more vocal about it than others. Google’s self-driving vehicles have completed over two million miles of testing on public roads, and in 2015 Tesla’s Elon Musk went as far as to say fully autonomous driving was a ‘solved problem’.

But it’s only since the start of the year that the big players – with much more to lose should it all go wrong – have begun to publically throw the same weight behind the idea, with ambitious timelines and out-in-the-open testing. Ford, for example, announced in August that it plans to have a high-volume, SAE level 4 capable vehicle on the road by 2021, for use in a ride-hailing or ridesharing service. In the same month, Volvo and Uber announced they were working together on a US$300m project to develop new base vehicles that can incorporate the latest advances in autonomous driving. Engineers from both the Swedish OEM and the ride-hailing service will use Volvo’s scalable platform architecture (SPA) to build a vehicle with the connectivity, safety and redundancy requirements that tomorrow’s cars will demand. “I think, unbeknownst to much of the general population, automakers have been exploring different levels of automation for many years,” says

Marques McCammon, General Manager of Connected Vehicles Solutions at Wind River, an Intel subsidiary specialising in embedded software. Some major OEMs, he points out, have programmes dating back ten to 15 years. That said, he agrees that a combination of new entrants and government agency interest in the potential safety beneﬁts of autonomous vehicles has accelerated the conversation. “OEMs are now under great pressure to demonstrate leadership,” he suggests. “In my opinion, the so-called disruptors and new technology companies now entering the automotive space have prompted many different discussions, such as the idea of mobility as a service. So whilst start-ups such as Lyft and Uber are bringing new mobility models, I think there was need for the market to understand that OEMs are still very much invested in the future state of mobility, and will take a leading role.” The challenge will be reconciling the conservative approach of the automotive industry with the quick, ﬂuid nature of tech-savvy disruptors. This will be particularly essential as the Internet of Things takes a greater shape, and all devices posses some degree of connectivity. “I like to think of what we provide as the bridge between Silicon Valley and Motor City,” says McCammon. “In the tech world, software moves very rapidly, and enters the market in various stages of maturity. By comparison, automotive moves in a

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“

Autonomous driving

OEMs are now under great pressure to demonstrate leadership. In my opinion, the so-called disruptors and new technology companies now entering the automotive space have prompted many diﬀerent discussions

slower, more calculated fashion, with an extremely low tolerance for risk.” Automotive, he suggests, falls within a category of industry alongside, for example, medical, defence and aerospace, where reliability and safety are indispensable: “These are systems that, quite frankly, have to work when you call on them.”

Laying the foundations

To bridge this gap, McCammon explains that Wind River must provide services that can enable OEMs to make software a much bigger parts of their business. “Our focus today is on delivering a framework,” he says. “The analogy I use is like building a house. Most people, when they fall in love with a house, fall in love with its exterior aesthetic, or its kitchen, or bathrooms, but the real value of it always begins with the foundations it’s built on. A solid framework can facilitate the interactions between consumer and vehicle, between computing systems and controls, and between the vehicle and its outside environment.” To that end, the company has developed its Helix Chassis platform, which brings together software, technologies, tools and services that it hopes will help OEMs to build into their vehicles the high-tech features demanded by tomorrow’s customers. The platform breaks down into three categories – Helix Drive, Helix Cockpit and Helix Car Sync. The ﬁrst of these, Drive, is designed for the speedy but safe development of critical systems, such as autonomous driving features.

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“

These systems, explains McCammon, are fundamentally closed, and will not be receiving regular inputs from outside parties: “Consider your smartphone: you’ll download apps, get updates on a regular basis, and have data constantly moving in and out of it. It’s a social device. Drive is designated for systems that can’t operate this way; if they’re going to communicate with the overall vehicle system, it’s through very controlled channels.”

driving experience, he explains, without compromising the security of the vehicle. “We don’t believe in a future where the in-vehicle infotainment system and automated driving are completely independent of each other,” he says.

The next system is Cockpit, which is designed to provide functionality for incar devices such as infotainment systems, head-up displays, and other places where the consumer interaction is more casual. This could allow consumers to download new apps, or record entertainment. What’s important, McCammon stresses, is that Drive and Cockpit be allowed to ‘mingle’, or meet at certain points where they can communicate. The exchange of data between the two can improve the

variety of tasks, from updating a single line of code in one device to updating the entire vehicle, rolling back updates and integrating security systems. If the software has a cold, says McCammon, there needs to be a way to give it medicine, and when potential threats emerge, they need to be countered. This is critical, says McCammon, because compared with industries that have already embraced connectivity, automotive faces potentially far more complex challenges.

The ﬁnal piece of Helix, Car Sync, is a solution for updating vehicle modules via over-the-air (OTA) updates. Such systems need to be able to perform a

We don’t believe in a future where the in-vehicle infotainment system and automated driving are completely independent of each other

Autonomous driving

“

“Wind River has been involved in the aerospace industry for more than 30 years,” says McCammon, “and making these systems secure involves being able to identify threats, installing redundant paths for when systems fail, signalling a time to switch to a redundant path, and ensuring there’s no latency in these transitions. This is essential as an accident can happen within a split second. The level of security in aerospace is already mind-boggling. But when you consider automobile, you have an order of magnitude more vehicles interacting, and they’re only interacting in 2D – you lose the option of changing altitude to avoid threats and collisions. So the challenge is significant.”

Urban driving conditions present a whole set of new challenges. “The value of human judgement is the fact you’re detecting things in your periphery with all applicable senses, and that you can make a qualitative judgement in real time,” says McCammon. The task at hand is to build devices with systems that can make the judgements whilst remaining secure and isolated from corruptive, outside threats, and once these judgements are made, to send them to the point of actuation within a vehicle whilst remaining secure. “We see many different approaches to this question,” he says. “There are some that are completely algorithmbased, in which we programme the

All of those algorithms and all the computing in the world are critically important, but if the data gets mixed improperly, we’ll ﬁnd ourselves dealing with more critical and catastrophic issues Off the highway and onto the streets Just how close does Wind River believe the industry is to fully realising self-driving cars? The truth, says McCammon, is that there is unlikely to be one particular moment where everything falls into place. Certain challenges have already been solved, while others remain some years off. He believes the biggest of these challenges will be designing vehicles that can handle the first and last mile. Over the next 18 to 24 months, he explains, the industry can expect to see levels of comfort with self-driving technology in highway circumstances increase. This is because highways are controlled environments, with vehicles moving in a single direction at more or less the same speed, meaning a much lower chance of onroad anomaly.

vehicle with the things we know and construct complex arrays of sensors and communications protocols. We also see discussions around deeplearning, and I believe this area is very promising, but challenges remain in advancing the state and strength of these algorithms to a point where the general public will feel comfortable with them.” Fundamental to any discussion moving forward will be ensuring there are clear and protected paths for all data, and that it can move in predictable ways. “All of those algorithms and all the computing in the world are critically important,” suggests McCammon in conclusion, “but if the data gets mixed improperly, we’ll ﬁnd ourselves dealing with more critical and catastrophic issues.” Through well-designed frameworks, Wind River hopes to help the automotive industry avoid any unwanted issues – especially those that can be described as critical and catastrophic.

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Freight eﬃciency in India

Durability, reliability and lightweighting govern India’s CV development Michael Nash talks to Tata AutoComp Hendrickson about the trends impacting product development in India’s commercial vehicle market ears of economic reform, industrial growth and improvement in road infrastructure have provided signiﬁcant opportunity in India’s commercial vehicle (CV) market. The adoption of the Goods and Services Tax bill (GST), which is expected to take place in 2017, could also provide further growth for the market, as it aims to tie the country’s various tax jurisdictions together and make it easier for businesses to claim tax deductions.

India’s freight market is booming. According to a report by market research company Novonous, there are currently around 2.2 million heavy-duty trucks and 600,000 light duty-trucks in operation across the country, covering over 1.8 million kilometres and carrying 3,000 million metric tons of load each year. Road freight movement therefore accounts for around 63% of total freight movement in the country, and is expected to increase at a CAGR of 15% between 2016 and 2020. Another report suggests that India’s bus market will grow at a CAGR of 9.36% between 2016 and 2020, reaching a value of US$10.34bn. Most of this growth is expected to come from the hybrid bus segment, which will rise at a CAGR of 25% for the forecast period. While the future looks bright, CV manufacturers and component suppliers are faced with a variety of challenges when selling products to India. Therefore,

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to be a top contender in the market, localisation and a deep understanding of customer needs is absolutely critical. That’s the view of J V Narasimha Rao, Senior General Management, Business Development, Tata AutoComp Hendrickson Suspensions.

Live longer and introduce earlier

Tata AutoComp Hendrickson started as a joint venture between Tata Group subsidiary Tata AutoComp, and supplies products and services in the ﬁeld of automotive components on a global scale, and Hendrickson International, a US-based developer of heavy-duty truck suspensions. The new company was formed in 2006, as Tata AutoComp sought to expand from its core passenger car business into the CV segment. Speaking to Megatrends, Rao discussed the key factors that must be considered when developing new suspension products for India’s CV market: “The three main consumer demands are durability, reliability and lightweighting. The customer expects our products and everybody else’s products to live longer, and wants to know exactly when they will fail to perform correctly. They desire both this robustness and reliability, but they also want to save fuel, so lightweighting is very important.”

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Freight eﬃciency in India

The customer expects our products and everybody else’s products to live longer, and wants to know exactly when they will fail to perform correctly. They desire this robustness and reliability, but they also want to save fuel, so lightweighting is very important

While focusing on these three factors, the company of course needs to stay ahead of its competitors when it comes to designing and launching new products. Although this can provide benefits in terms of sales volume, Rao admitted that it might sometimes cause issues with acceptance and consumer understanding. “If you look back at our product portfolio, each technology was brought to market in India ahead of its time,” he observed. “Take our lift axles, for example. Nobody expected them to come to market around six

years ago. The challenge is to convince our OEM customers that there is market potential for the product while simultaneously convincing fleet operators of the benefits when using the product in the right way.” Customer education in India’s CV market, he continued, is an area that suppliers like Tata AutoComp Hendrickson work on thoroughly and consistently. This is partly down to the reluctance of ﬂeets to invest in costly new technologies, despite the fact that these technologies will last longer and provide beneﬁts such as fuel economy.

Whether in the mines or on the highway, the Indian truck market more than most needs parts that are durable, reliable and light

“The entire burden of responsibility falls on us for taking our knowledge to the fleet operators and the mechanics, and showing them precisely how new technologies are more durable, reliable and fuel efficient,” he emphasised. “This can even include offering a maintenance service.”

Patience is a virtue

A successful supplier to the Indian CV industry is a patient supplier, notes Rao. Not only does a supplier need to spend time convincing OEMs and fleet operators that the introduction of their technology is necessary, but it must also wait for production to commence. “It’s a very long process, and can take between 20 and 36 months,” he revealed. “This is due to the fact that the product life-cycle in CVs is much longer than it is in passenger cars. In addition, we must go beyond the request for quotation (RFQ) document to understand the usage patterns and road surfaces, because the document often doesn’t grasp the real situation.” RFQs are used by OEMs to request quotes from suppliers regarding their technologies. They provide the suppliers with information detailing the product requirements, which then offer prices to the OEM if they believe their product is viable.

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Freight eﬃciency in India

The size of the Indian market is such that trucks are used and maintained differently from one region to another, making it difficult to develop one-size-fits-all products

“

India is a big country, and people in the North use their vehicles in a very different way to those in the South, East or West. Furthermore, maintenance practices are very different across the country. As a result, it’s very difficult to make a vehicle or a product that fits each region

“India is a big country, and people in the North use their vehicles in a very different way to those in the South, East or West,” Rao continued. “Furthermore, maintenance practices are very different across the country. As a result, it’s very difficult to make a vehicle or a product that fits each region.”

Rapid road wear and tear

Looking ahead, Rao suggested that each of the three trends – durability, reliability and lightweighting – will continue to play major roles in India’s CV industry. Although he acknowledges that the challenges are

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difficult to overcome, he believes that there is some positive development across the country that is helping CV manufacturers and suppliers alike. He flagged road infrastructure improvement as one of the key factors. “The government is doing its bit to improve road infrastructure,” Rao affirmed.

However, he also believes that the government must work to ensure that these roads are not overused – a very challenging goal, he conceded, but one that is vital for the future of the CV industry. “Raising the infrastructure is one thing, but if you don’t control the road usage then it is bound to wear out much faster, especially when implementation quality in India is poor.”

“Traditionally, hard shoulders and the edge of the roads have not been prepared properly. On a four-lane highway, drivers couldn’t see where the road ends. But things are improving, and the government is looking to change single lane roads into two or four lanes, and create express highways.”

The growing introduction of road tolls, he said, could ensure that roads are adequately maintained. In turn, this could save ﬂeet operators money because maintenance work on their trucks and buses would be carried out less frequently, enabling them to invest instead in new durable, reliable and lightweight technologies.

Model-based design

Model-based design crucial for securing ‘intricate system interplay’ The amount of data produced by vehicles is set to grow dramatically with the rise of the connected car. This data can be leveraged eﬀectively with the help of model-based design. By Michael Nash he design processes for vehicles continue evolve. Laboratories are no longer full of full-size vehicle prototypes and rough sketches splattered across reels of paper. Instead, computer software has become capable of providing highly detailed and accurate simulation. This model-based, simulated approach to vehicle design could be vital as the industry faces increasingly tough requirements and demands, particularly those centred upon safety and connectivity.

From powertrain to safety

Mathworks, a mathematical computing software developer, hopes to accelerate the pace of engineering and science by providing technical computing software that can be used across a variety of industries. Speaking to Megatrends, Kishore Rao, Managing Director, Mathworks India, explained the parameters governing demand for model-based design in the automotive industry. “At Mathworks, we look at automotive trends, like emissions, fuel economy and safety,” he explained. “We then aim to provide a platform for our customers to address these three drivers. Our solutions, like Matlab

and Simulink, can become an integrated platform for data analytics and model-based design, allowing companies to address the challenges that they face.” Matlab is used by over a million people around the world for machine learning, computational finance, control design, signal and image processing. It is also a common tool for the medical, energy, cellular, spacecraft and automotive industries. While Matlab uses a coded language, Simulink provides a block diagram environment for modelbased design. It is integrated with Matlab, and allows users to incorporate Matlab algorithms into models and export simulations to Matlab for additional analysis. Traditionally, these model-based design tools have had “tremendous success” in the ﬁeld of powertrain development, Rao explained: “I think the reason powertrain was the initial area to adopt model-based design tools is primarily due to increasingly stringent CO2 regulations. Companies realised that they could no longer reach the targets with traditional systems, which included ﬁne-tuning the powertrain on the bench. They turned to advanced control concepts in the hope of getting more out of the fuel they inject. This paved the way for

the use of models, and simulating the entire system with software tools.” Looking ahead, Rao expects this success to continue as the electriﬁcation of the powertrain increases system complexity. “There’s an even stronger need to simulate and carry out sizing exercises.” He also referred to the development of “model predictive controls” – these, he explained, are sophisticated engine control systems that “continue to push the envelope on powertrain design.” While he thinks that the powertrain ﬁeld will remain the biggest user of modelbased design, Rao revealed that the largest growth area could be vehicle safety thanks to the rising popularity of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS). “There used to be an exclusive focus on active safety, but now with the rise of driver assistance, there is a big push towards passive safety. Modelbased design tools can be used to create and validate these complex systems, and validation is a major component of these systems.” Like many other experts, Rao thinks there is a strong link between ADAS, the realisation of autonomous driving and vehicle safety. While most OEMs have already started to introduce ADAS in their portfolio, only a handful of companies like Tesla have shown their autonomous vehicle capabilities.

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Model-based design “There are varying levels of automation making inroads in the industry,” Rao affirmed. “All of these are very tightly linked to safety. It is no longer one domain or one subsystem that is designed to tick the boxes. For example, as you go into ADAS, there is an intricate interplay between the vision sensing and the braking system. This communication needs to be actuated to be able to predict the scenario unravelling ahead, and to provide the necessary means to mitigate or avoid a collision.”

make better decisions on product design and reﬁnement.” Data analytics, he added, is an already huge area that will play an increasingly important role in vehicle design for every OEM. This will be evident in the design of all systems and vehicle components, be it in the area of safety or powertrain. “Just to summarise, powertrain continues to be the biggest user of model-based design, but we see

The model-based design environment provides automotive companies and their engineers with the ability to conceptualise systems at a high level, simulate their interplay and ensure that the performance they are getting addresses their targets.” Additionally, the need to secure this data and connectivity against cyber security is a growing concern for vehicle designers. Rao suggested that Mathworks is focusing more on this area than ever before, particularly in the

The reason powertrain was the initial area to adopt model-based design tools is primarily due to increasingly stringent CO2 regulations. Companies realised they could no longer reach the targets with traditional systems With data and connectivity comes complexity Increased ADAS adoption is not the only trend providing opportunity for model-based design, Rao continued. The rise of the connected car has taken the automotive industry by storm, and many experts predict that vehicles will only become more sophisticated, smart and connected to keep up with consumer demands. A recent report from SNS Research predicts connected car services to bring in US$14bn in annual revenue, marking a CAGR of 31% between 2016 and 2020. As Rao points out, “New areas of vehicle connectivity generate huge amounts of data, and there’s an opportunity to use this data by sharing it between different systems to improve their performance. Model-based design allows companies to leverage data and

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ADAS and safety as the big emerging area. Data analytics impacts all of these areas, and so leveraging it in an efficient and performanceoptimising way will be the key trend,” Rao noted. With both passive safety and vehicle connectivity playing an increasingly important role in vehicle design, Rao thinks the amount of data could lead to a number of issues in vehicle design. For example, he referred to a scenario whereby each and every sensor on the vehicle must be able to communicate and transfer data to the other, otherwise the safety of the driver and occupants is compromised. “Everything is very complex today,” he emphasised. “with widespread use of electronics and software, and an increasing number of sensors in the vehicles. There is also considerable interplay between different systems, and a huge amount of data to juggle.

wake of a small but growing number of incidents involving researchers successfully hacking into connected cars and taking over primary control. “We’re looking at cyber threats with a view to securing different systems or algorithms that have been designed for the vehicle, and how they can perform in a certain way against hacking or against misuse,” Rao explained. “It's a relatively new area for us, and one of the key starting points is the securing of the embedded systems and code. If the model-based design approach is used to simulate and test all conditions before using automatic code generation, then we can conclude with a high degree of conﬁdence that the code does not have bugs.” Securing data and code, Rao concluded, will be a crucial enabler not just for the rise of the connected car, but also for the increased use of ADAS and the realisation of autonomous driving.

Brought-in connectivity

Brought-in beats embedded in India’s connected car race In a market where cost eﬃciency is paramount, the opportunity to utilise ‘brought-in’ connectivity cannot be ignored, Visteon India tells Freddie Holmes he car has changed signiﬁcantly in recent decades, and technological advances have enabled an increasing level of automotive electronics. Where mechanical elements once worked in isolation, much of the car is now interconnected via a digital network and can now be controlled electronically. The cockpit itself has also been revamped, and has facilitated the complete overhaul of a large automotive supplier.

In 2014, Visteon doubled down in electronics with the acquisition of Johnson Controls’ electronics division, and proceeded to offload a raft of unwanted businesses. The company is now the largest Tier 1 supplier focused exclusively on the fast growing cockpit electronics segment, and is looking to emerging markets for further expansion. Arun Devaraj has been with the company throughout its transition toward cockpit electronics. Based in Chennai, he currently serves as Head of Customer Regional Engineering, India, and has seen a wealth of change not only in the company, but in the connectivity space as a whole. In developed markets, he tells Megatrends, the car has transitioned away from basic ‘bring your own device’ (BYOD) connectivity to something requiring ‘octa-core’ computing capability.

The next-gen cockpit

New cars today feature anywhere between 20 and 150 electronic control units (ECUs), which require “many

Frugal innovation: Visteon India is focusing on leveraging the capability of brought-in devices to minimise investment in embedded connectivity technology different microprocessors carrying out many different functions,” says Devaraj. The capabilities of silicon chips are growing “exponentially,” he adds, and Visteon is looking to improve the car’s processing power by adding cores – moving from dual core, to quad core and now octa-core. “That presents a great opportunity for consolidation,” he notes. Speciﬁcally, it means that the instrument cluster, infotainment system and head-up display (HUD) can be consolidated into one system, which allows relevant and contextual information to be displayed to the driver more efficiently and effectively. “This is the essence of what we are accomplishing with our SmartCore platform,” he says, which he describes as being a highly security-focused approach to cockpit module consolidation.

What has traditionally been controlled via separate control modules can now be carried out through a single multicore processor. As a result, the vehicle’s instrument cluster can display not only typical readouts such as speed and fuel economy, but also driver assistance features and navigation. Importantly, SmartCore allows these various ECUs to be separated and secured, meaning that entertainment software cannot interfere with driving critical units. In July 2015, the shortfalls of a connected vehicle without ECU separation became apparent as a Jeep Cherokee was reportedly hacked via its infotainment system. Among other things, this enabled remote control of its steering and braking. “With the plethora of ECUs that are in the car today, many of them can be connected, and the risk is obviously very high,” affirms Devaraj.

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Brought-in connectivity

The move to octa-core will enable Visteon to consolidate the instrument cluster, infotainment and HUD into one system

“

In India, about 80% of car sales are in the A- and B-segment, so it is about frugal innovation where solutions leverage ‘brought-in’ connectivity

The company’s next-generation infotainment platform, Phoenix, is based on three principles: being app developer friendly, fully upgradable, and highly secure. The architecture is also based on open standards, which allows for collaborative development among app communities. “Algorithm developers will be able to create domain hardware based on current smartphone technology,” suggests Devaraj. “The software community can build apps right into it, and it is easier to integrate different features such as voice recognition or navigation, compared to the current landscape.”

The power of the smartphone

This is important for emerging markets such as India, where brought-in devices like smartphones and USB

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dongles are the primary form of connectivity in the car. Visteon India is developing solutions through a process it terms ‘frugal innovation’. The focus here is on leveraging the existing capabilities of a brought-in device, and thus minimising an OEM’s investment in the vehicle itself. “In India, about 80% of car sales are in the A- and B-segment, so it is about frugal innovation where solutions leverage ‘brought-in’ connectivity,” explains Devaraj. India, he says, currently has around 235 million smartphones in use – a relatively small percentage for a population of more than 1.2 billion people. However, the new car market totalled 2.6 million units in 2015, and it is “highly probable that every car owner in India is going to have a smartphone,” he points out.

“Here, we are talking about using the computing power of the smartphone or USB device to bring in the driver’s information. You can bring in your own apps, and it is all beautifully integrated into the head unit to provide content.” For example, the Apple CarPlay and Android Auto smartphone apps provide the connected features available in upmarket embedded infotainment systems. Voice recognition and navigation, for example, can be brought into the car, “so the OEM is not investing that much into the head unit per se, but is still able to offer similar content to the end user,” explains Devaraj. At this point, he is keen to highlight that being frugal does not mean compromising on quality. “It is about providing the best experience to the user considering the aspirations of the

Brought-in connectivity Indian user, their purchasing power and infrastructure limitations,” he says. “It is about providing a disruptive solution whilst keeping the market scenario in mind.”‘

Lagging infrastructure, but not for long

Part of the reason behind the popularity of smartphone-based connectivity is the country’s maturing infrastructure. Whereas developed countries have widespread access to 3G and now 4G, many emerging markets still have to deal with connectivity black spots in some areas. “When you talk about emerging countries, infrastructure is a significant bottleneck,” admits Devaraj. “We do still see patches in the ability to provide even 3G coverage.”

dramatic change in the telecoms space, and that will drive the demand for connected services.

Emerging need for security

Cyber security is a hot topic for the automotive industry as a whole, and Visteon’s latest Phoenix platform places key importance on getting it right. Phoenix adheres to the SAE J3061 cyber security standard, which means that hackers are blocked by a secure end-to-end system that spans from the network to the hardware itself. “One of the key foundations of the J3061 standard is the secured development cycle,” he says. “That is what we are trying to bring into the Visteon DNA by validating our input, output, and being threat safe.”

Over the next few years there will be a dramatic change in the telecoms space, and that will drive the demand for connected services India is not sitting back, and the country is investing heavily to change this, he says, with 4G connectivity becoming “a must-have for telecom providers”. In May, mobile network Reliance Jio launched a trial 4G service in India, which will eventually be rolled out for full commercial use. The company is also reportedly developing a connected car module that connects to a vehicle’s on-board diagnostics (OBD) port to create a WiFi hot spot. “The landscape is changing very, very fast, wherein it is not just the urban and city areas, but also the rural areas that are getting connected today,” says Devaraj. He predicts that in five years, India’s state of connectivity will be drastically different to today: Over the next few years there will be a

Devaraj admits that cyber security is probably not high on Indian customers’ list of priorities. India has a long way to go when it comes to rolling out highly connected vehicles, he explains, but he expects this to change once connected cars become commonplace in the market. Many Asegment cars already feature 7” infotainment screens, which he believes is an indicator for future connectivity opportunities. Looking ahead, Visteon is making moves to expand its capabilities on a global scale. In March 2016, the company brought-in a former Siemens, Harman and Elektrobit executive as Chief Technology Officer, and in July acquired smartphone connectivity specialist AllGo. The latter is expected to boost its ability to cater for brought-in connectivity.

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Powertrain innovation

Changing consumer demand forces powertrain evolution Punch Powertrain’s Gert-Jan Vogelaar tells Michael Nash about innovative new powertrain technologies that are set to make their way to market over the next ﬁve years redicting the acceptance of new technologies in the automotive industry is an extremely challenging task. OEMs and suppliers invest millions of dollars in the design, development and production of solutions, in the hope of winning new customers and reaching markets.

With increasingly stringent emissions and fuel economy regulations looming across the world, powertrain engineers are examining the viability of numerous technologies that are yet to reach mass production in the passenger vehicle segment. The level of adoption and acceptance of these technologies could vary considerably when considering markets like Europe, the US and Asia, for example.

transmissions (CVTs) for rear-wheel drive (RWD) vehicles in the mid-1970s. It almost exclusively supplied its product to Volvo after being acquired by the Swedish OEM in 1975. Since splitting from Volvo in the early 1990s, Punch has expanded its portfolio considerably, and continues to do so through research and development. Speaking to Megatrends, Gert-Jan Vogelaar, the company’s Strategic Marketing Director, emphasised the importance of this continuous expansion.

Expansion through R&D

“When Punch ﬁrst started we were a one-customer business, but now we’ve managed to create a large base of clients,” affirmed Vogelaar. “We invest the money we make on sales in the development of new products, and we need these new products to increase our geographical footprint.”

Punch Powertrain, which grew out of a former DAF subsidiary, started to produce continuously variable

Punch’s latest CVT is called VT5, and is slated to reach production in 2017. It is based on the company’s existing

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VT2 and VT3 transmissions, but has the world’s largest ratio coverage for a single CVT transmission. Vogelaar described the steps that Punch has been taking before the VT5 enters production.

The cost challenge

“The ﬁrst part was to ensure we had more customers for our VT2 and VT3 transmissions,” he revealed. “Once we had those, we had the money to invest in new technologies. Our current CVT products don't have torque converters, which is the number one requirement for an automatic transmission in the US.” Vogelaar also noted that while CVTs are not particularly popular in Europe, they are in high demand across Asia. To tackle the European market, Punch decided to start the development of a dual clutch transmission (DCT). “DCTs aren’t really a very cost effective solution at the moment, but

Powertrain innovation

There is an increasing interest from OEMs in solutions that do not use rare earth materials because of the significant cost reduction. I think this will be a significant factor for the future of motor solutions we think we can give them a much better chance to succeed,” Vogelaar suggested. “We chose to develop the DCT because we saw a space in both the Asian and European markets.” Cost is the number one challenge facing the mass adoption of DCTs, continued Vogelaar. Therefore, Punch’s aim is to produce a DCT that is cheaper rather than more expensive than a CVT, and will target segments that currently use automatic manual transmissions. “These segments are traditionally those with the cheaper cars, and we think we have a concept DCT solution that will cost only slightly more than an AMT,” he predicted. Vogelaar is confident that, by offering the VT5 CVT and a DCT, Punch will be able to meet the demands of the

Chinese, US and European consumers. “Our market base will be global, which is a critical part of our company’s strategy,” he emphasised.

Motoring ahead

Before the supplier started developing the VT5, it focused heavily on its hybrid powertrain and Switch Reluctance Electric Motor (SRM) technology. In a recent Automotive World webinar, Saphir Faid, Manager Advanced Development, Punch Powertrain, described the variety of motors available for electric and hybrid vehicles. The SRM was highlighted as a particularly promising architecture. “The development of motors is heading in quite a few different directions,” Vogelaar mused. “We've been focusing on SRM technology,

In order to meet legislation, OEMs must improve the eﬃciency and lower the emissions of their vehicles, otherwise they will be unable to bring certain vehicles to market

which we originally planned to introduce on our first hybrid powertrains. But it did not fulfil all the different requirements coming from all our different customers. Some were pleased with the results, but some had issues with the noise, vibration and harshness (NVH) levels.” As a result, Punch decided to launch its hybrid powertrain solution with a permanent magnet electric motor, but continued with the development of SRMs for electric vehicles (EVs). It was recently involved in a European project with several partners to develop a fully integrated electric powertrain with a SRM, the gearbox and the power electronics in one package. The system was then installed in a BMW i3 demonstration vehicle. “We found that the NVH issues were completely gone, and the typical SRM issues that we had with torque ripple were resolved,” explained Vogelaar. “I think we really made a big breakthrough with the technology in this project.” Discussing the possibility of bringing the SRM to production, Vogelaar said that the general base design is finalised, but “the industrialisation process is yet to start. It has to go through the standard product creation process with all the various sample phases,” he explained. One of the key factors that is beneficial to the production of SRM technology, as well as to the end user, is that it does not include rare earth materials in its design. “There is an increasing interest from OEMs in solutions that

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Powertrain innovation do not use rare earth materials because of the significant cost reduction,” Vogelaar affirmed. “I think this will be a significant factor for the future of motor solutions, and am confident that Punch has a very good solution with the SRM technology.”

Changes in China

Discussing the evolution of powertrain technology in general during the next ﬁve to ten years, Vogelaar said that each market is likely to move at different paces. “I also think there will be different approaches around the world, depending on what level of technology is available,” he mused. “If you look at China, for example, there will be some huge improvements in the efficiency and performance of combustion engines. However, I think the country might skip certain steps, and ﬁnd it more cost efficient not to put all the focus on the engine but to introduce 48-volt (48-v) systems, for example.”

explained. “However, many of the subsidies that were given to OEMs have now been put on hold, and in general, incentives will be reduced in the coming years.” The primary factors pushing the adoption of electriﬁed vehicles in China, Vogelaar continued, are the fuel economy and emissions regulations. “In order to meet legislation, OEMs must improve the efficiency and lower the emissions of their vehicles, otherwise they will be unable to bring certain vehicles to market.” Looking ahead, Vogelaar said there could soon be some changes that will impact heavily on the Chinese vehicle mix: “Nothing is official yet, but from what we are told, the system and regulations may change and there will be a huge trend towards mild hybrids. This will result in more 48-v solutions on the market in China, rather than the plug-ins we see today.

If you look at China, for example, there will be some huge improvements in the efficiency and performance of combustion engines. However, the country might find it more cost efficient to introduce 48-volt systems, for example Punch Powertrain, he revealed, is preparing to introduce a 48-v system to market in 2017, with the primary target market being Asia. As for battery electric vehicles (BEVs), Vogelaar thinks they will be an attractive solution for China. “These two electrified architectures will probably do better in China than in the rest of the world,” he predicted. This is partly due to the incentives provided by the Chinese government that have spurred sales in electrified vehicles. “The authorities have been keeping the carrot in front of the customers, especially in certain cities like Shanghai, which had a huge incentive for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles,” he

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These vehicles could account for anywhere between 40% and 50% of an OEM’s fleet mix, depending on their strategy.” When considering the numerous different products that Punch has in development and production, Vogelaar admitted that there is a “difficult juggling act to perform.” He stressed the variation of “challenging consumer demands” from across the world, and how they put a strain on companies to develop a wide range of new technologies. “Optimising a powertrain portfolio is all about trying to select the right solution for the right market, and being there at the right time,” he concluded.

Reverse innovation

Reverse innovation – it’s the way forward! Megan Lampinen talks to Harman India about developing global products in emerging markets he globalisation of automotive brands has written and rewritten product development strategies over the years – but everything we know about global branding strategies could soon be turned on its head once again.

The idea that products are more likely to resound well with consumers if they are customised for a particular region led to the emergence of the notion of ‘glocalisation’. For most vehicle manufacturers and suppliers, this meant taking innovation that was developed in mature markets and scaling it down for emerging markets. That was then; this is now, and the future.

Harman's big bet

Eight years ago, Harman made a gamble on the way it approached automotive infotainment system development. The supplier had a reputation for premium, cutting edge infotainment technology, found in luxury brands such as MercedesBenz and BMW. "Back then, our car division was primarily supplying the premium segment, and that's the segment for which our solutions catered. They were quite elaborate, to some degrees over-engineered, over spec'd," said Harman's Arvin Baalu, Vice President - Digital Cockpit Platforms. "Clearly our price competitiveness only allowed us to compete in the segment where cost

was not a primary driver. For those brands it is more about features, technology, and the capability that we can bring with our platforms." What was missing was an opportunity with mainstream OEMs, where considerable growth potential was predicted. "We tried taking these high-end, high-priced premium solutions and stripping them down for mainstream OEMs, but it didn't really work out," Baalu told Megatrends. "This is where we made a big bet to rethink the way we do infotainment systems. We asked ourselves, 'Can we rethink the hardware design? Can we rethink the systems design, the way we approach software, the way we

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Reverse innovation develop the software? That was the genesis of creating the centre in India eight years ago." Today, all four of Harman's business divisions are represented in India. Of the company's global headcount of 29,000 employees, 8,000 are located in India alone. Many of these are working on various aspects of product development – including what’s known as ‘reverse innovation’. "Reverse innovation is where you more or less design a product from the ground up in an emerging market and it ﬁnds global acceptance," explained Baalu. "Fortunately for Harman, that platform has served us quite well. It has since gained acceptance at some of our big OEM customers in North America as well as Europe."

Car drivers in India have similar needs to car drivers in Europe, says Harman's Arvin Baalu: they want an infotainment system that is secure, easy to use and intuitive

“

Reverse innovation is where you design a product from the ground up in an emerging market and it ﬁnds global acceptance. Fortunately for Harman, that platform has served us quite well. It has since gained acceptance at some of our big OEM customers in North America as well as Europe Baalu describes the success of the strategy as "pretty phenomenal" and adds that it "continues to provide a steady pipeline for us... We continue to invest in next-generation platform development catering to our global customers and vehicle segments."

Get the baseline right

However, there have been changes along the way. "What we did eight years back clearly doesn’t hold good today because the technology has evolved so much," he added. "At the same time, the processes, the governance, the principles remain. That means looking at the market, being very disciplined in the way we spec out the platform, making sure we are competitive globally and not just in a region. Harman’s platform strategy has allowed us to broaden our product portfolio and our customer base. "

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The first step is to get the baseline requirements right for the specific market. Car drivers in India have similar needs to car drivers in Europe. Maybe there are some subtle differences but in the end the driver wants an infotainment system that is secure, and provides for a compelling user experience that is easy to use and intuitive. When we look at platform creation we look to set out these baseline requirements." After that, the focus shifts to honing the details. For a navigation system, luxury models traditionally embed this functionality. For emerging market customers, the solution could instead harness smartphone capabilities. Hence the arrival of the Harman SmartAppsLink, which allows the navigation app on the phone to

communicate with the head unit, and then project the map information. Tata Motors was one of the first to debut the system in India. The platform solution has also integrated projection mode technologies from Baidu, Google and Apple. Similar approaches were adopted for various other systems. What Harman can do is systematically offer the end customer the most relevant features at a price point that is acceptable for that market, simply by being smarter in the way it deploys the technology. "A simple example is the CD mechanism where we were able to convince our customers to drop the CD player. The media consumption pattern didn't warrant the US$10 or US$15 cost to integrate it. In its place, we focused on supporting streaming music protocols," he said.

Reverse innovation

Platforms, platforms, platforms

Harman's Digital Cockpits initiative focuses on next-generation cockpit experiences

Today, Harman has several different platform initiatives within the connected car space. Within infotainment, it has a premium platform as well as an entry level platform. In the telematics space, it is looking to harness over-the-air (OTA) technology to branch out into update gateway solutions. "We are looking at a box that can securely and safely update every electronic unit within the car so that you save the OEMs and the customers the cost of updates in the ďŹ eld. With our recent acquisitions, we are able to deliver the complete value chain," Baalu explained.

The value proposition we can offer to the OEMs and the end-customers is integrating all of these domains onto one single ECU to present a compelling and harmonious user experience. We believe this platform will be quite disruptive in the market He is also heading up a new platform initiative called Digital Cockpits, which focuses on the next generation cockpit experience. Engineers are examining various types of user experiences as well as the kind of electronics behind that experience. "We are not satisďŹ ed with just controlling the centre stack display. We are getting into the cluster space, into the other areas within the cockpit that are going digital," he said. "The value proposition we can offer to the OEMs and the end-customers is integrating all of these domains onto one single ECU to present a compelling and harmonious user experience. We believe this platform will be quite disruptive in the market. We intend to play a major role in driving next generation cockpit controller solutions." In all that it does, Harman engineers are always looking at how to differentiate between a high, premium and entry offering, and at how to

maintain discipline accordingly. "We have to stay very disciplined within our requirements for the platform. We solicit input from the market. For example, we will establish that a display audio platform must adhere to a certain price point and must offer a certain set of features," said Baalu. "For premium systems it will have more features, more CPU, it will integrate some features within the head unit." With the underlying software, the aim is to avoid unnecessary development work. "We don't want to create a unique software for each of our platforms. We try to architect it by using software product lines," he explained. For instance, 40% of the software used on a display-level audio can be carried forward to a premium. These commonalities could include aspects such as the operating system, the middleware technology, the drivers and

the infrastructure parts. The variability comes in with the user experience. "We try to apply software product line principles to create a set of core software assets and be smart in the way we handle variability," he noted. Overall, Harman is keen to develop multi-use platforms that can then be customised. The result is a shorter time to market, higher quality and lower cost. "For us, it's all about platforms. That's something in which we take considerable pride now," Baalu emphasised. "We are not really looking at each opportunity as a ground-up development. We are investing in developing production-grade platform solutions that we can then easily customise and offer as a product to the customer. This philosophy cuts across everything that we do within Connected Car. Itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s all about platforms, platforms, platforms!"

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3D printing

Game-changing tech, inﬁnite opportunities: 3D printing grows up

3D printing is not new, but Stratasys has previewed two new technologies that could change the game. By Freddie Holmes ig things are on the way for 3D printing, thanks to the development of an ‘inﬁnite build’ machine, which allows parts to be produced rapidly via additive manufacturing.

Although a prototype for now, Stratasys – a leading 3D printing technology company – says that the Infinite-Build 3D demonstrator was developed to meet changing requirements for the rapid production of strong, light parts of varying size. 3D-printed parts could range from a passenger car armrest, to an entire aircraft interior panel. Back in 1989, Stratasys co-founder Scott Crump patented a 3D printing technique called fused deposition modelling (FDM), which builds parts layer-by-layer from the bottom up. Through this process, thermoplastic filament is heated and extruded to produce a physical counterpart of a 3D computer-designed model. The InfiniteBuild machine takes this traditional FDM technique and flips it on its side, allowing for effectively unlimited part lengths. Aircraft manufacturer Boeing has played a significant role in the development of this machine, with plans to develop a range of lightweight composite parts in low volumes. In fact, Boeing has been working on various additive manufacturing projects with Stratasys for over a decade, with more than 20,000 in-flight 3D-printed parts. Ford, too, is working with Stratasys as a ‘strategic partner’ to explore new 3D

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The Stratasys Infinite-Build system could enable OEMs such as Ford to create composite 3D-printed parts and large interior panels

3D printing printing applications that have not been possible due to size limitations. The Inﬁnite-Build system could allow OEMs to create composite 3D-printed parts and large interior panels. This differs from existing 3D printing methods, which have largely been constrained to small-scale prototyping or discrete component production. As Rich Garrity, President of the Americas at Stratasys, explained during a media event in Minneapolis, parts can now be produced in feet as opposed to inches. “With a new way of extruding FDM materials, we can now produce parts as long as we would like on the vertical plane,” he said. “This is another leap forward for FDM.”

A new beginning

Stratasys has been at the forefront of 3D printing developments for several decades, and currently has more than 280 R&D engineers around the world, with approximately 150,000 3D printers in operation across various industries. “We’ve gone through many years of pioneering, and I would encourage us to not look at the size of the industry, but at how 3D printing can affect the

The Infinite-Build machine takes the FDM 3D printing technique invented in 1989 by Stratasys co-founder Scott Crump and flips it on its side, removing limits to the size of parts that can be produced industry in many different ways,” said Stratasys Chief Executive, Ilan Levin. Crump shared a similar view, remarking that that the company had come a long way since its inception, but these technologies marked a “new beginning” for the segment. “Welcome to the future of FDM, 3D printing, and additive manufacturing,” he said at the event. “These are very exciting times.” The Inﬁnite-Build machine began as a concept at Crump’s ‘skunkworks’, and

later transitioned into a full engineering project. For the aerospace industry in particular, this was a signiﬁcant step, as manufacturers are no longer constrained by the capabilities of existing 3D printing technologies, and in theory, can produce parts of any length. “One of the problems was size,” explained Teri Finchap, Director of Operations and Quality at Boeing. “With the Inﬁnite-Build [machine], we

Currently three quarters of the LM3D car is 3D-printed, but Local Motors aims to increase this to 90%

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3D printing don’t need numerous small parts. We now have the ability to grow much larger parts at much quicker speeds… You’re adding instead of subtracting when you design now.” Prior to the tour of a manufacturing hub, Crump remarked: “You’ll likely see 18-foot [3Dprinted] parts.” Automotive players will also be looking to leverage opportunities for the greater levels of customisation these machines can afford. But OEMs are not only up against changing consumer demands for form and function, they are also being hard pressed to produce lighter, safer vehicles. “Today we’re doing entry level interior parts and in some cases customised exterior parts, but where we’re headed for tomorrow is much larger,” said Garrity. This would enable the “mass customisation of interiors and the ability to truly lightweight the vehicles of tomorrow,” he suggested.

Copen model to be customised by the customer, with a dozen base patterns and ten colours to choose from. And at the 2015 Detroit Auto Show, a 3D-printed Shelby Cobra was on display, developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) using Cincinnati Incorporated’s Big Area Additive Manufacturing (BAAM) machine. Lonnie Love, Group Leader of Automation, Robotics and Manufacturing at the ORNL said prior to its unveiling: “It’s not going to look like a 3D printed car. It’s going to look like a real, beautiful car.” Daimler Trucks is investigating the use of 3D printing for spare parts, and BMW is one of the investors in Carbon3D, a start-up from Redwind City, USA

Composites

The use of composite materials has been growing “tremendously” across various industries, particularly in aerospace and automotive. Research

“Functionality has been signiﬁcantly improved thanks to a very unique toolchanging capability,” said Garrity. “That does two things: we are able to introduce multi materials into FDM now, and we can have much longer unattended operation.” Looking at future market demand for both technologies, Levin remarked that the future is bright. “The runway ahead of us is long and signiﬁcant,” he said. “These two units are a step function in nature, not just an incremental improvement. What can be done with an FDM process now couldn’t be done before.”

The digital evolution As new vehicles become increasingly digitalised, so too do the factories that make them. Garrity highlighted additive manufacturing as a “key enabler” of Industry 4.0 – the highly

With the Infinite-Build [machine], we don’t need numerous small parts. We now have the ability to grow much larger parts at much quicker speeds – Teri Finchap, Director of Operations and Quality, Boeing

Ford is one of a number of vehicle manufacturers investigating 3D printing, and several – ranging from start-ups to other global OEMs – have made signiﬁcant investments. In June 2015, start-up manufacturer Divergent 3D revealed the Blade, which it described as the ‘ﬁrst 3D-printed supercar’. Local Motors of Phoenix, Arizona has been developing the LM3D additive manufactured car, which it says will exceed Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) by 2017. Approximately 75% of the car is 3Dprinted, with goals to raise this to 90% in future. Daihatsu, in partnership with Stratasys, has been developing 3D-printed ‘effect skins’, which allow the front and rear bumpers of the

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ﬁrm MarketsandMarkets expects the automotive composites market to reach a value of US$11.26bn by 2020. Composite materials typically combine a ﬁbre – such as glass or carbon – with a plastic or metal to reduce weight whilst improving strength. To this end, Stratasys has also developed a second machine that combines advanced extrusion technology with an eight-axis motion system. This Robotic Composite 3D Demonstrator allows for the application of extruded material to be precisely directed for strength, and can reduce the manufacturing times of a 3D-printed part. In addition, the range of composite materials that can be used has been expanded.

connected, automated factory of the future. He predicts that large parts will be made “much faster… All the way from CAD to finished product.” Increased flexibility across the automotive supply chain will also ensue, as suppliers print high value, lightweight composite parts, where and when they are needed. Andreas Saar, Vice President of Manufacturing Engineering Solutions at Siemens PLM Software, remarked that leading manufacturers have to take part in the digital evolution of their facilities if they are to remain at the top. “Companies in the Fortune 500 won’t exist in the next ten years if they don’t understand the impact of digitalisation,” he concluded.

Deep learning

GPU sets auto industry on a deep learning curve GPU-accelerated computing is enabling better deep learning, and that’s just what the industry needs to make cars as smart, if not smarter, than drivers. By Xavier Boucherat

eep learning, a form of machine-learning and a component of artiﬁcial intelligence (AI), could yet prove an essential enabler for fully autonomous vehicles. Inspired by the structure of the human brain, it could give cars the ability to safely negotiate the many complex scenarios that human drivers encounter on the roads every day.

The concept is nothing new. Indeed, the original idea of an artiﬁcial neural network modelled on the brain was conceived in the earliest days of AI, but for software to ‘learn’, it needs to be able to parse gargantuan amounts of data, or ‘examples’, and this requires massive amounts of computing power. Historically, this has limited practical applications, but the rise of Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) accelerated computing has helped overcome this restraint. Compared with a central processing unit (CPU), which has multiple cores to perform tasks in sequence, a GPU has thousands of smaller cores which can perform multiple tasks simultaneously. GPUaccelerated computing works by offloading compute-intensive tasks to the GPU, leaving the CPU’s cores to execute other lines of code. Recent developments demonstrate just how far AI has come. Googleowned DeepMind’s AlphaGo

computer won a game of Go, a traditional Chinese board game, against Lee Sedol, the world’s best player – a feat all the more remarkable when you consider there are several billion times more legal positions in Go than there are atoms in the observable universe. Speaking at the inaugural GPU Technology Conference (GTC) in Amsterdam, Jen-Hsu Hung, Chief Executive of Nvidia, declared that society was on the verge of a new AI revolution. The big bang for GPUcomputing, he suggested, came in 2012 when AlexNet, a deep neural network image classiﬁcation software, outperformed human-written algorithms designed by some of the world’s leading computer vision experts. The wider extrapolation of AlexNet’s achievements is “daunting,” said Hung, and is going to enable a whole host of technologies – not least, self-driving vehicles. “If you have a fleet of self-driving cars, one of them is eventually going to find something it doesn’t recognise,” he said. “If that car stops, it will remain stopped. And so full autonomy is going to require even more ability to detect the corners of conditions.” But how closely is the automotive industry watching GPU developments, and how relevant will they be?

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Deep learning

Radar, camera and LiDAR alone are insufficient for optimal hazard detection. In combination, however, they present a very robust system, says Volvo’s Erik Coelingh

A self-driving car will eventually ﬁnd something it doesn’t recognise. If that car stops, it will remain stopped. And so full autonomy is going to require even more ability to detect the corners of conditions - Jen-Hsu Hung, Nvidia

Up the learning curve Erik Coelingh is Senior Technical Leader for Safety and Driver Support Technologies at Volvo Car Corporation, and as far as he is concerned, Volvo cannot hope to fulﬁl its visions without deep learning. Coelingh and his team are spearheading the Drive Me project, in which 100 customers will test-drive XC90s equipped with Volvo’s latest self-driving technology. Trials will take place among real life traffic along commuter routes surrounding the OEM’s hometown of Gothenburg, and are due to begin in 2017. A similar project has been conﬁrmed for London, and other cities are being considered. “We need to learn everything we can around how deep learning can be applied to make cars more intelligent,” said Coelingh. “Volvo has

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been talking about self-driving cars since the summer of 2007, and back then, people were unsure what selfdriving programmes could mean. That has changed very quickly. Work on Drive Me started in 2013, when our top management realised just how important this was going to be. The promise of self-driving cars is now extremely attractive, both to consumers and to society.” To help fulﬁl this promise, Volvo already works closely with Nvidia, and is using the company’s Drive PX 2 platform in the advanced platforms that will soon hit the road. The computational power this affords allows the cars to process video images, make decisions and carry out other compute-intensive tasks. “Just consider what a self-driving car needs to do,” said Coelingh. “It needs

to be able to perceive its environment, and this creates a huge amount of data that needs to be processed in real time in order to make good decisions. The Drive PX 2 platform allows us to connect the things that collect this data. Our self-driving cars are using nine cameras, seven radars, a LiDAR and high-deﬁnition map data. Processing all this requires huge amounts of power.” GPU-accelerated computing will lend vehicles the power to perform such complex sensor fusion, which in turn will help to democratise safety. Coelingh is clear on the need for this – LiDAR, for example, will be an extremely necessary component. Being able to detect anything that might end up on the road in any conditions, said Coelingh, is extremely challenging. “The only way to solve that is to use all sensing principles that you have available. Radar, camera

Deep learning

Volvo's Drive Me project will see customers test-drive self-driving XC90s on public roads, first in Gothenburg and later also in London

There is no self-driving car on sale today, and there won’t be until someone can prove their robustness - Erik Coelingh, Volvo Car Corporation

and LiDAR all have their weaknesses, but in combination, you can really make a robust system. It’s true that LiDAR is expensive, but developments continue behind the scenes to solve this problem.” Even the laser Volvo uses now, he suggested, is “really quite affordable” for a car like a Volvo. “We will continue to lead in democratising this kind of technology,” Coelingh said. “We were the first to equip collision avoidance features, based on LiDAR

technology, in 2008. There are millions of Volvos using AEB and other features which are saving lives every day.”

Let’s not be hasty

Demos and promotional ﬁlms, suggested Coelingh, are a good way to show off what’s possible in autonomous drive technology, but may give the impression that we’re closer to a self-driving future than we really are. The challenges ahead, he stressed,

remain enormous. Building a vehicle that can deal with exceptional circumstances such as extraordinary weather situations, road traffic incidents or technical faults in the infrastructure will require the leaps forward in deep learning and computing power for which Nvidia is pushing. “The full power of deep learning has not yet been realised within automotive,” said Coelingh. “We’ve only taken baby steps so far. But this will change very quickly. Right now,

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Deep learning every new Volvo vehicle has a camera, and this camera is gathering data - recognising pedestrians, lane markers, animals, cyclists and more. That technology is there. But when we make the step towards fully autonomous vehicles, which is to say when we tell our customers they no longer have to drive and they can perhaps read a book instead, the amount of processing power needed, as well the quality and robustness of the technology, is of a completely different magnitude.”

“

For now, several situations remain that current technology cannot handle. Several features that will be essential for autonomous driving, such as automatic emergency braking (AEB), have already reached a level of maturity, but still have vulnerabilities. “For example, you may have a single camera looking out the front of your vehicle,” he said. “If the

Xavier - a complete system-on-chip (SoC) - is Nvidia’s all-new AI supercomputer, designed to act as the brain of a self-driving car

Xavier is one of our greatest endeavours as a company. There are so many ideas now, so many applications that we weren’t able to conceive before - Jen-Hsu Hung, Nvidia

sun is low on the horizon and shining directly into the camera, it’ll blind it. Today this would be an exceptional situation, but if there were many cars with this feature on the road and it began happening every day, we would see a high number of road traffic incidents.”

second system would be needed, adding further complexity to the vehicle. “There is no self-driving car on sale today,” he concluded, “and there won’t be until someone can prove their robustness.”

Other exceptional situations, Coelingh added, include pedestrians entering areas they should not, such as highways, or technical failures of components such as the brake pump. In the case of the latter, the car would still need to be able to brake itself, he said, as a self-driving car cannot rely on a potentially distracted driver. A

Nvidia is branching out further into the mobility sector, announcing at GTC a partnership with TomTom. The mapping technology company has chosen the Drive PX 2 platform to use in its mapping vehicles, and together the companies plan to create a Cloud-to-car platform capable of converting HD video in HD mapping – “a computational

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Next steps

challenge of extraordinary proportions,” said Hung. Also unveiled at GTC 2016 was Xavier, an AI supercomputer designed speciﬁcally for use in selfdriving cars. Built with seven billion transistors, the technology will eventually replace the Drive PX 2 platform. “Xavier is one of our greatest endeavours as a company,” Hung said, suggesting the computer was among a number of developments that proved how important AI was “for the future of the world. There are so many ideas now, so many applications that we weren’t able to conceive before.”

Cyber security

Cyber security, the bedrock of the entire automotive value chain In the rush to get cars connected, could OEMs be providing hackers with the very means to compromise the competitive advantage the OEMs were hoping to gain? By Olivia Price-Walker and Niranjan Thiyagarajan, Principal Consultants at Frost & Sullivan

y 2025, there will be 120 billion connected devices worldwide and over 5 billion Internet users. This will enable multiple innovative applications that will change the way we live, communicate and conduct business, creating a connected world. The rapid pace of digitisation is transforming the car industry, accelerated by consumers’ evolving digital lifestyle expectations and demands for new and innovative services. All new cars will be connected by 2020; Internetenabled, they will be a key part of the connected living market.

In the 18 months leading up to October – officially ‘national cyber security awareness’ month – we have seen an attack on a Ukraine power grid enabling the hackers to black out Western Ukraine, a sharp rise in ransomware attacks on establishments such as Hollywood Presbyterian Hospital, which paid a whopping US$17,000 ransom to regain access to ﬁles locked by ransomware, a US$81m fraudulent transfer from Bangladesh Bank and notably a massive cyber attack on TalkTalk in the UK that saw 150,000 customer details swiped; the hack cost the company £60m (US$73m) and lost it 95,000 customers. Financial results from

TalkTalk show the company suffered a £15m trading impact and extra "exceptional" costs of £40m to £45m. Cyber attacks are rising exponentially – the topic featured in Frost & Sullivan’s ‘Top Trends for 2016’ and will make it ﬁrmly into the ‘Top Trends for 2017’. As a trend, cyber security is just as important now as the connectivity off which it feeds. From the Frost & Sullivan office in central London, it has been easy in recent years to hear the familiar sound of sirens as a luxury Range Rover raced through the streets with the London Metropolitan police in hot pursuit of a vehicle just hacked and stolen from the moneyed area of Kensington. Between January and July in London alone in 2014, over 300 Range Rover Evoques and Range Rover Sports were stolen, along with 63 BMW X5s and 3 Series models. These were organised thefts; one brand new Range Rover was stolen in London and found on the Hungarian border less than 48 hours later. The car had been tracked from purchase, suggesting that as early as when it was in the showroom the theft of that vehicle was planned. As cars become ‘computers on wheels’, the hackers jump for joy. How long will it be before we see a hacked and out of

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

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Cyber security

As cars and information systems get heavily integrated, hackers will have more incentive to… hack solutions to allow local suppliers to connect into a centralised B2B hub.

control autonomous vehicle careering through London? A far scarier image than a person trying to make it to a border with a Range Rover…

Added to this is the move to the Internet of Things where smart factory, R&D efforts, logistics and supply chain and aftermarket service infrastructure will need to be connected to common back end platforms for added optimisation. This can only become more complicated.

As the supply chain becomes more interconnected and fragmented, that network of suppliers is also opening itself up to threats and attacks which will in turn harm its own clients. While strong collaboration with the supplier base is critical to success, it has also weakened the OEM defence lines to external attacks. This is further exacerbated by the move to the Cloud as most OEM executives are concerned by the perceived loss of data control once it is deployed in the Cloud. The challenge here, with globalisation key to expanding into emerging markets, is that a number of OEMs are deploying Cloud-based

Trends in the automotive market

When Frost & Sullivan recently researched Top-of-Mind issues troubling Connected Car Senior Management in the industry, unsurprisingly Distributed Security solutions were ranked number 1.

Other areas highlighted were Over the Air updates and the creation of new revenue streams.

Data privacy and data security

Data privacy and security issues have raised their ugly heads in recent months with increasing frequency. In 2020, more than 70% of consumers are likely to consider security a key parameter when purchasing a car. Imagine a future in which a consumer is swayed between purchases over whether or not a ﬁrewall is provided as standard in a connected car? Traditional buying factors like performance could well be a secondary or tertiary option on the average customer’s expectation list.

Global Connected Cars Forecast 2015–2022 EU OEMs are struggling in terms of finding the sweet spot on business models and features. NA OEMs are expected to push business models that will make money out of LTE investments.

Europe

China

Brazil

South Korea

Japan

India

Total

80.0 69.4

Number of Connected Vehicles (Million)

70.0 60.0

60.0

51.8

50.0

43.8 36.1

40.0 29.4

30.0 20.0

18.8

23.8

10.0 0.0 2015

2016

2017

2018

Year

2019

2020

2021

2022

China is expected to lead the connected car market with high production volumes while in NA all cars sold will have connectivity post 2020. Europe is expected to catch up soon but will be stalled a little with Eastern European penetration. Brazil is expected to experience a slow turnaround.

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â&#x20AC;&#x153;

Cyber security

Growing Security Concerns in Light of OTA Strategies Over 50 vulnerable attack points exist in the modern day ECU driven smartphone on wheels and the concern is both in-car and back-end security 16 distinct hackable areas Airbag ECU DSRC Based Receiver Remotelink Type App

OBD II USB Bluetooth

Smartphone App Passive Key Less Entry

Remote Key

TPMS Lighting System ECU (Interior & Exterior) ADAS System ECU

Engine & Transmission ECU Steering & Braking ECU Vehicle Access System ECU

Consumers are addicted to convenience and connectivity in their everyday lives. Consumer electronics, especially mobile phones, provide a level of convenience that cannot be offered by any other industry. Customers also have high levels of expectation when it comes to connectivity from industries other than the automotive industry.

conditions from Apple or Google without batting an eyelid, and with little concern about what Google or Apple have access to when it comes to personal and private content. Although it is frowned upon that a celebrityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s iCloud accounts may have been compromised, it rarely makes headlines. However, when eager

Cyber security hyper concern The emphasis though remains on cyber security advancements in an industry that quite realistically is poorly prepared to meet minimum requirements. Industry consolidation is critical to bring into the value chain the

In their rush to get cars connected, OEMs could be providing a connection to hackers that can instead be easily compromised and cost them the competitive advantage they were hoping to gain through connecting their products Security and privacy are often taken for granted when it comes to consumer electronics. Consider, for instance, the mobile phone: consumers will accept terms and

journalists and white hat hackers remotely break into a Jeep, automotive and mainstream media buzzes with the dangers of hacking and the threat to cyber security.

expertise that does not exist today. Intel, for example, has created an Automotive Security Review Board, a sort of Justice League of security experts to combat and address cyber

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Cyber security

security challenges. Other companies have made investments and acquisitions to strengthen their cyber security; Harman, for example, invested over US$1bn in acquiring TowerSec, Red Bend Software and Symphony Teleca. Recent experience

European ENISA (European Network and Information Security Agency) is to form a team of experts and start working with OEMs as well as partners to evaluate security initiatives related to connected cars and to draft security recommendations for OEMs.

Delphi; Volkswagen’s cross industry co-operation for greater cyber security in Germany (DCSO); Tesla’s engagement with white hat hackers; and the Volvo Cars collaboration with government agencies, academia and tech companies.

As cyber security systems need to evolve, the threat against them will evolve, too. Hackers, so-called ‘hactivists’ and criminals will ﬁnd new and innovative ways to attack

has shown that, especially in the US, concerns around cyber threats will prompt government bodies to initiate research projects and proactively frame regulations similar to cyber security laws in other industries. The US Security and Privacy in Your Car Act (SPY Car ACT) proposes that OEMs focus on security initiatives such as data protection, data privacy and supply chain security. In 2016, the

Recent hacks indicate that in-vehicle and wireless are major threat vectors; hackers are likely to target the weakest link and the increasing number of attack surfaces until the original threat vectors are controlled. OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers have acted on these hacks and come up with a number of initiatives and collaborative partnerships, including a collaboration between GM and

Frost & Sullivan has identiﬁed a number of different ways in which automotive companies will focus their efforts and investments. These include acquiring software companies; partnering with specialist security companies; providing security training; collaborating with ethical hackers; hiring security experts and restructuring the organisation; and conducting V2X ﬁeld trials and taking security initiatives.

2015–2016 Connected Car Senior Management Top-of-Mind Issues Cybersecurity, over the air updates, and creating new revenue streams around intelligent mobility programs are key issues facing top management of connected car teams at OEMs.

Connected Car Outlook: Senior Management Top-of-Mind Issues, Global, 2015–2016 Connected Car Program Rollout in New Markets 5 Aftermarket Telematics Opportunities

Turning Legislations into Business Models

3 2 1 Digitization and Intelligent Mobility

Distributed Security

Software Defined Cars

Enabling Automated Mobility

Pushing more Contextual Services Note: Data collected from 2015–2016 interviews and discussions with senior managers to CEO-level executives of OEMs and Tier I suppliers in North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, China, India, Latin America, and Rest of World.

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Cyber security

Conclusions

As cyber security systems need to evolve, the threat against them will evolve, too. Hackers, so-called ‘hactivists’ and criminals will find new and innovative ways to attack. As cars and information systems get heavily integrated, hackers will have more incentive to… hack. Vehicle manufacturers, just as all other participants in the automotive value chain, must understand that for cyber security, there is no one-size-fits-all solution, and it definitely cannot be achieved with a onetime investment. Cyber security services need to be tailor-made for specific needs and usage and also continually upgraded along with advancements in science and technology. The current crops of

As we race towards a connected and autonomous future, the automotive industry will increasingly become vulnerable to cyber threats and attacks. The automotive industry is dealing with a number of problems, including an explosion of data, complicated IT infrastructure and unreal customer expectations, to name but a few. None of these issues are likely to go away in the future, and at the same time no system is physically capable of solving or getting on top of them. Cyber security investments act like insurance against an attack from happening, or at least put the right measures in place to protect the business from such attacks.

‘traditional’ automotive suppliers do not have what it takes to provide such a level of protection to OEMs. This has been underlined by the scramble to acquire expertise and bring it into the automotive fold. The automotive industry should learn from the experience of other industries such as banking and finance, and partner with the right suppliers who know how to get the job done. In their rush to get cars connected, OEMs could be providing a connection to hackers that can instead be easily compromised and cost them the competitive advantage they were hoping to gain through connecting their products.

Connected Car and Cybersecurity—Initiatives and Impact Analysis Connected vehicles, developing skillsets specific to cybersecurity, distributed security architecture, and cloud security are critical and in different stages of development to enhance vehicle security features.

Cybersecurity Simulator

Government Regulations and Compliance Analysis

Connected Vehicles

Distributed Security Architecture

Security Roadmap

Private Security Review Board (e.g., ASRB, DCSO)

2016 Automotive Cyber-security Threat Analysis & Risk Management

Cloud Security

Medium

Collaborative Learning

Understand and Learn from Security Initiatives across Other Industries

High

Very High

Develop Cybersecurity Skillsets Aviation Industry Comparison and Benchmark

In-Vehicle Network Architecture

Supply Chain Security Source: Frost & Sullivan

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Application lifecycle management

ALM+PLM = the future of product development Megan Lampinen talks to Siemens about the beneďŹ ts of a combined application and product lifecycle management strategy raditional development techniques won't work for non-traditional products, and the automotive industry is fast becoming far from traditional. With intelligence spreading to mechanical systems, it is becoming increasingly difficult to separate application lifecycle management (ALM) and product lifecycle management (PLM). Boundaries are gradually eroding as software plays a greater role in product lifecycle development, and the challenge now is to create a seamless collaboration between the two.

"When we deďŹ ne ALM it is important to set a context, and the context is this new age of smart products," Siemens India Director of Marketing, Gautam Dutta, told Megatrends. "PLM is about the physical product, a car, a phone or some heavy farm machinery. ALM is about the intelligence or the software applications that drive it."

Systems of systems

A smart product has some level of intelligence and some level of software electronics built into it so that it can respond. "The products are becoming systems of systems," observed Dutta. One common example is the modern seat belt. When a driver or passenger puts on the seat belt and locks it, there is mechanical click of the lock. The signal is picked up by the sensor which travels to the dashboard where it turns off one of the electronic icons, telling the driver whether or not the seat belt is secured. This one safety system has multiple subsystems - a seat belt, a lock, the lock's sensor, the sensor's

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embedded software which converts the mechanical signal of locking to some kind of electronics, which is then fed into a common display unit on the dashboard, and the icon switching on or off. "These are multiple subsystems which have to work together as a system. That means when we are developing a seat belt locking system, there has to be a set of people working on the mechanical lock, a set of people working on the belt itself and its tightening mechanism and some people with electronics background working on the sensor," elaborated Dutta. "All of them have to work together, and that's where the ALM comes in. If you treat that subsystem as a part, then ALM is the science behind managing the continuous lifecycle of the software application development or in conjunction with the mechanical equipment like the seat belt." Siemens' own enterprise-based ALM solution is targeted specifically at the development of software and embedded systems. "It helps people work together as a team, maintaining the various development lifecycles and

Application lifecycle management The car at the heart of the IoT: As mechanical products evolve into smart systems of systems, traditional hardware and software development techniques have become obsolete. Thatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s where ALM comes in, says Siemens

data, and coming out with new versions of that product time and again," said Dutta. The system, which is offered under the name Polarion ALM, promises project transparency, helping with connecting teams and projects and improving application development processes with a single, unified solution for software requirements, coding, testing, and release. "It enables everyone to be aligned around what is being built and why, to drive advancement while protecting integrity and compliance. This approach helps teams respond faster and with better quality to new business opportunities and customer demands," said Dutta. The development of Polarion ALM follows last year's acquisition of Polarion

Software, the company that created the first 100% browser-based ALM back in 2005.

ALM+PLM

"For many subsystem suppliers involved in pure software engineering activities, for those supplying just software codes or binaries, ALM alone may be enough," he added. "As you move up the value chain, taking on embedded engineering and complex systems-driven product design, we believe the need increases for ALM+PLM integrated solutions." The advantage of this approach, he explained, is that companies can scale up. "You may come from the traditional mechanical industry side where you had a PLM system running

your traditional seat belt design. Or you may come from the electronics sensor industry and you were using ALM. Then you scale up for an integrated PLM+ALM solution," he pointed out. Autonomous cars exemplify the merging of different domains in a single overall system. "You have the body made of sheet metal, you have the various mechanical components, and then you have a battery which is a combination of chemical domains. You have the power electronics that bring together the powertrain, which is specific to the electric vehicle. It's a totally different way of developing and configuring a vehicle,â&#x20AC;? he said, noting the high volume of software and apps required to drive autonomous cars.

As you move up the value chain, taking on embedded engineering and complex systems-driven product design, we believe the need increases for ALM+PLM integrated solutions 58

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Application lifecycle management On the whole, Siemens expects all companies to eventually require both ALM and PLM. "The reason is simple we are all looking for smarter products. A product can only be smart when it is responsive to intelligent selfdeterministic operations. It should be able to understand what the customer wants it to do. When you put your ﬁngerprint on a coffee machine, the coffee machine should be able to ﬁgure out this lady wants a decaf, no milk, one sugar, and made from Brazilian coffee," said Dutta. "That will be driven from your biometric electronics, your Big Data capture converted to some kind of instructions, telling the coffee machine to make the coffee that you want. We want that. And if we want that, that smart machine cannot be developed traditionally."

But because companies are doing multiple things, adoption cycles have shortened." Siemens, for example, is active in healthcare, energy and automation. "To use one patented technology in multiple verticals is very normal," he added. In fact, he said, "Diversity across verticals is our priority."

Eye on India

Dutta and his team are based in India, where the speciﬁc priority is to send out a warning. "We want to highlight to customers the need to upgrade themselves to deﬁning, designing, conceiving, manufacturing and setting up their supplier ecosystems to develop and deliver smarter products for the

incremental innovation any more. We are talking about transformational innovation," he emphasised. "That's what we will face in our work - quick turnaround for the introduction of brand new advances and development of comprehensive applications." He pointed to greater use of robots working with people, additive manufacturing, knowledge management, and digital services. "Digital services will become increasingly popular with people across businesses, creating new business models. There are numerous disruptive business models currently that can corroborate the claim," said Dutta. "These new developments and new business models will be deﬁned." From India's perspective, one of the biggest changes will be the reskilling

India is very strong on systems software and software-driven manpower. We need to quickly adapt ourselves to this global need for suppliers of subsystems and systems for the new automotive age Multiple verticals It may not be long before Dutta's coffee example plays out in the car. "Automotive somehow has deﬁned considerable engineering understanding, which has driven technology-centric improvement elsewhere in other domains, other verticals such as aerospace, defence and industrial machinery," he observed. However, adoption cycles are shortening. "It used to take a decade or more for such changes to move from automotive. If somebody tested something in a spacecraft before it went to the moon, it was probably 15 years until similar technologies were adopted by automotive, and another ten years until that was adopted by machinery.

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country. We want to help customers embrace the change by making them understand the preparation and transformation required within and across organisations," he explained. "The traditional way of working is not going to work." The reception among companies in India varies. "The ones who are globally aware understand that the status quo cannot continue," Dutta said. While these companies may be committed to change, the big questions is how to change. Siemens' own business faces rapid change as well, and the work Dutta and his team will be doing in ﬁve or six years could prove dramatically different even from today. "We are not talking about

cycles. "These changes will drive a need to reskill people in our organisations," he predicted. "The older ways of working will have to change. That means, people would have to unlearn and relearn." In general, he regards India as arriving on the cusp of a tremendous opportunity for automotive suppliers to become smarter product suppliers to the world. "India is very strong on the systems software and software-driven manpower. We need to quickly adapt ourselves to this global need for suppliers of subsystems and systems for the new automotive age," he said. "If we all work together we can seize the opportunity. Otherwise, somebody else will, and we will miss the boat."

Carbon ﬁbre

Interview: Connie Jackson, Chief Executive, LeMond Composites Cycling legend Greg LeMond claims his new company’s carbon fibre production process halves current industry costs and energy use for a product worth three times as much. The first market in his sights? Not bikes, but cars. Martin Kahl talked to CEO Connie Jackson to find out more

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The ultimate expression of technological innovation’ … ‘The most high-tech material in automotive engineering’ … When a vehicle manufacturer uses carbon fibre reinforced plastic (CFRP) parts on one of its cars, it wants you to know about it. It looks great, it’s made to stand out, and it’s usually on a highend car designed to turn heads, such as the Alfa Romeo 4C, BMW i8 or the Ford GT. The stunning appearance of those parts – always highly visible – is as much behind why OEMs use them as any of the weight or structural benefits that might be claimed by the vehicle manufacturer. However, it’s those benefits – such as weight saving, strength and geometric freedom – that are so highly desired by the mainstream automotive industry. The reason why the use of these composites is still limited to niche applications is simple: cost. CFRP costs significantly more than highstrength steel and aluminium – reportedly by a factor of four or five – and for that reason its use in the automotive industry has to date been restricted to niche models and low volume parts in high-end brands. That, however, could be about to change, thanks to a new process

developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and licensed by a manufacturing start-up founded by former pro-cyclist and three-time Tour de France winner, Greg LeMond. With his new company, LeMond Composites, led by Chief Executive Connie Jackson, LeMond aims to bring carbon fibre into the mainstream and, in a significant departure from current use of composites, plans to develop carbon fibre for use in underthe-skin, under-the-hood and structural applications. When news broke of LeMond Composites’ plans, it was the eyewatering headline figures that grabbed the industry’s attention: the LeMond Composites carbon fibre production process halves current industry production costs but produces a material with properties that would be three times as expensive; and the production process uses 60% less energy than current industry processes. The obvious questions need asking: just how has LeMond Composites managed to do this? And why has no one thought of this before? “I get asked that all the time!” laughs Jackson, whose CV shows a career steeped in carbon fibre development that led to a five-year stint at the US

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Carbon ﬁbre going to have any hope of meeting the CAFE requirements in 2020 and then again in 2025, we had to get on a track that was going to be possible. Some of the alternative materials just will not be viable even by that time. I knew we could make something with textile PAN that would at least meet the DOE targets, which are very modest as far as stiffness and strength are concerned.”

Tour de France winner Greg LeMond is Chairman and Co-CEO of LeMond Companies. The first to win a pro-cycling race on a carbon fibre frame, LeMond is a carbon fibre pioneer - so too is Connie Jackson, CEO of his new venture, LeMond Composites. Target markets: wind energy, freight, mainstream automotive, and - of course - bicycles Department of Energy-funded ORNL in Tennessee, before her appointment at LeMond Composites. ORNL enabled Jackson to work with concepts and ideas that had developed over many years of working in carbon fibre manufacturing. “We had the building, the funding and the luxury to do the research and development on some of those concepts and make them work. “Over many years, the Department of Energy (DOE) has invested probably up to US$200m in the development of low cost carbon fibre,” says Jackson – and a direct result of that investment is the carbon fibre process now licensed by LeMond Composites.

Since the early days of her involvement in carbon ﬁbre development, Jackson says she had been unimpressed with the various solutions she saw being explored, and focused on the potential opportunities available with textile polyacrylonitrile, or PAN, which, she explains, has a molecular structure very similar to that used in aerospace-grade carbon ﬁbre. Jackson’s industry background and familiarity with PAN made it a logical material to work with. PAN provides a high-volume, low-cost feedstock, very similar to material used to make carpet, sweaters or socks, says Jackson – essential for supplying the high volumes required for the automotive industry. “If we were

Once development and production of carbon fibre began, says Jackson, it became clear that there were opportunities to develop an entirely different conversion process on the carbon fibre side, beyond any process she had previously envisaged. “I found we could achieve a much higher tensile strength and modulus by making the proper adjustments in the conversion equipment and the conversion process.” Meeting the cost metrics requires an increase in throughput, notes Jackson. The aerospace industry may be able to invest significantly in capital per unit output of carbon fibre – investments have been known to reach US$50m for a line producing no more than 1,500 tons annually of carbon fibre – but such high figures are out of the reach of the automotive industry.

Carbon ﬁbre as we know it

Cost aside, the potential for carbon fibre in the automotive industry is clear: CFRP is five times stronger than steel, twice as stiff, and most importantly, weighs around twothirds less. Replacing steel with

Our targets are average cars, and other forms of transportation such as heavy trucks and shipping containers. Anything that moves and consumes energy, that’s our target

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Carbon fibre CFRP has the potential to reduce vehicle weight by up to 60%; this could increase fuel efficiency by around 30%, cutting vehicular emissions by up to 20%. The material also offers vehicle designers greater design freedom than many other materials. One of the overriding factors holding back the widespread adoption of CFRP has been the cost and timeintensive production process, but analysts expect costs to fall as processes improve. Since developing the i3 – the first volume car to be built using CFRP for the complete passenger compartment – BMW Group has said it has reduced proportional production costs for CFRP by around 50% and cycle times by 30%. Interestingly, the OEM – which has a joint venture with carbon fibre manufacturer SGL Group – has since said it is limiting its use of carbon fibre due to the high cost of the material making it uncompetitive in smaller segments and smaller vehicles. The arrival of LeMond Composites supports those analysts’ predictions of falling production costs. However, for the LeMond Composites process – or indeed any new carbon fibre production process – to be viable, three primary factors need to come together, explains Jackson. “First, the cost of carbon fibre itself has to be lower,” she explains. “And I think we have achieved that metric according to automotive industry feedback. As well as the cost metric, we've achieved the modulus metric, the stiffness metric, and I believe we've achieved the tensile strength metric for most automotive applications. “The next part of the equation is that the composite processes, which are the downstream processes from the carbon fibre, must be approached from the same perspective. Composites must be mass producible, which means production times needs to be short and the cost of materials needs to be fairly low. Some of the exotic type resin systems will simply add cost to the product.” The third factor, notes Jackson, is recyclability. Just as steel, aluminium and other metals used in the automotive industry are recycled, so

The LeMond Composites carbon fibre production process halves current manufacturing costs but produces a material with properties that would be three times as expensive

Photo credit: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy

Almost every OEM has had some access to the material either directly or through a Tier 1, and they are very much on board

composites also need to be recyclable, and several Tier 1s are factoring recycling into their processes.

“and they're very supportive and interested. Almost every OEM has had some access to the material either directly or through a Tier 1, and they are very much on board.”

LeMond Composites’ target market is far removed from the high-end vehicles mentioned earlier: “Our targets are average cars, and other forms of transportation such as heavy trucks and shipping containers. Anything that moves and consumes energy, that’s our target.”

LeMond Composites’ key objective is to provide the composite manufacturers with an intermediate carbon ﬁbre product indistinguishable from anything available on the market today. This means those customers can switch out existing parts without needing to adjust manufacturing processes and product designs.

If it moves

Thanks to the work carried out at ORNL, and its close ties to the automotive industry, OEMs and Tier 1s are well aware of the work of LeMond Composites, says Jackson,

“The properties will probably be different, and they'll have to do some FEA work, for example. But we are trying to develop the intermediate

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Carbon ﬁbre

We don't just want to be known for a beautiful woven carbon fibre hood on a car. We want to be really in the structure of the car. That's where carbon fibre belongs. It's a structural material products in such a way that the form factor will be similar to what they already use. We can't expect everybody to change over all of their base line equipment. Other carbon fibre manufacturers’ equipment is different. So from that perspective, we will have our own equipment design and our own process that we'll be using to ultimately end up with a similar product to what they currently produce.”

Under the skin

LeMond Composites’ first carbon fibre production location will be at Oak Ridge, next to ORNL. The headquarter facility has been acquired, and ground-breaking is expected to take place by early 2017. “Our initial plan is to scale up the technologies to a full commercial scale, with production starting in the first quarter of 2018. From that initial

carbon fibre line, we will then be able to produce enough material to get into several qualification programmes that we've identified.” The company’s strategy is clear, says Jackson. “Our customers will be the composite manufacturers, whether that be a Tier 1 or a Tier 2, or an OEM. And we don't necessarily view other carbon fibre manufacturers as competitors, because our process is different and we're targeting a market that currently doesn't exist.” LeMond Composites will initially set out to produce carbon fibre, but Jackson notes that later it plans to also produce thermoplastic intermediate parts, and is developing products with a plastics industry partner. Jackson acknowledges the stunning appearance of carbon fibre panels on cars, but emphasises the company’s USP: “We don't just want to be known

Connie Jackson prefers a process which uses textile polyacrylonitrile, or PAN; this provides a high-volume, low-cost feedstock – essential for supplying the high volumes required for the automotive industry

Photo credit: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy

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for a beautifully woven carbon fibre hood on a car. We want to be really in the structure of the car. That's where carbon fibre belongs. It's a structural material. We want to be in the chassis, we want to be in the driveshaft, we want to be in the things that are really going to have an impact on the weight of the vehicle.” There is, of course, one other target market. Despite this article’s focus on the automotive industry, bicycles were destined to come into the discussion, and bicycle production is one of the company’s ambitions. “That’s on our long-term schedule, but we do plan to do that,” confirms Jackson.

The long-term plan

Besides the automotive industry (and bicycles), there are other industries on the LeMond Composites hit list, including wind power, air travel and other transportation items such as heavy trucks and shipping containers. “The costs and the mechanical properties that we have achieved really expand the market,” notes Jackson. Should LeMond Composites succeed, Greg LeMond – the first person to win the Tour de France on a carbon fibre bike – and Connie Jackson could be on the verge of a major disruption in the carbon fibre industry. “It's not that people didn't want to use carbon fibre in many of the applications that are out there currently, it's just that the cost factor has been too high,” she concludes. “Our value and our longterm model is for high-volume applications, but as the cost factor has dropped so significantly, those markets are now very receptive to changing from heavier materials to carbon fibre.”

Regulating autonomous cars

To HAV and to hold: regulators embrace autonomous vehicles Legislation is often accused of slowing the progress of technology, but government agencies in Europe and the US are keen to explore the promise of autonomous driving, write Daniel Rockey and Mohammed Elayan of Bryan Cave LLP he summer of 2016 was a seminal period in the history of self-driving cars, or, autonomous or highly automated vehicles (HAVs), as they are referred to by industry participants. In July, the UK Department for Transport (DfT) and the Centre for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles issued a series of proposals aimed at supporting the continued development and deployment of autonomous vehicles in the UK. In September, the world’s largest ridesharing company, Uber, began testing the use of HAVs in transporting passengers in Pittsburgh, and not a week later, the US Department of Transportation’s National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA) released its ﬁrst comprehensive policy guidance on the development and regulation of HAVs.

The DfT whitepaper expresses strong support for the rapid adoption of automated vehicle technology in the UK and was released with the stated goal of “secur[ing] the UK’s position at the forefront of this change for the development, construction, and use of automated vehicle technologies.” The paper identiﬁes three areas of the current regulatory framework which necessitate reform: insurance; regulations regarding the construction and use of near-to-market

technologies; and incorporation into the UK Highway Code guidance for drivers about the safe and appropriate use of new autonomous vehicle technologies. The most speciﬁc recommendations concern insurance, with the DfT proposing to extend compulsory insurance requirements to cover product liability claims against manufacturers of automated vehicles, requiring additional compulsory insurance covering injuries to ‘not at fault’ automated vehicle drivers, as well as passengers and third parties, and developing a system to classify automated vehicles so that manufacturers, insurers and consumers know to which vehicles these particular insurance requirements apply. Several additional steps have been taken in the US; in announcing the new policy, Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx asserted that “[a]utomated vehicles have the potential to save thousands of lives, driving the single biggest leap in road safety that our country has ever taken.” Entitled Federal Automated Vehicles Policy: Accelerating the Next Revolution in Roadway Safety (FAVP), its stated objective is to "speed the delivery of an initial regulatory framework and best practices to guide manufacturers and other entities in the safe design, development, testing, and deployment of HAVs.”

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Regulating autonomous cars

In recognition of the tremendous safety benefits which the technology promises to deliver, NHTSA refrained from issuing compulsory regulations that could inhibit innovation, preferring for now to encourage industry self-regulation consistent with NHTSA guidance The core of the new policy is the Vehicle Performance Guidance for Automated Vehicles, which outlines best practices for the safe pre-deployment design, development and testing of HAVs prior to commercial sale or operation on public roads. Pursuant to this guidance, NHTSA expects manufacturers to submit a 15-point safety assessment, covering: data recording and sharing, privacy, system safety, vehicle cyber security, human-machine interface, crashworthiness, consumer education and training, registration and certification, post-crash behaviour, federal, state, and local laws, ethical considerations, operation design domain, object and event detection response, fall back and validation methods. In recognition of the tremendous safety benefits which the technology promises to deliver, NHTSA refrained from issuing compulsory regulations

that could inhibit innovation, preferring for now to encourage industry selfregulation consistent with NHTSA guidance. At the same time, NHTSA put developers of autonomous vehicle technology on notice that it will exercise its available regulatory authority over HAVs using its existing regulatory tools, and “has the authority to identify safety defects, allowing the Agency to recall vehicles or equipment that pose an unreasonable risk to safety even when there is no applicable Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard (“FMVSS”).” Although the whitepaper’s Vehicle Performance Guidance is likely to garner the most attention, the more signiﬁcant development from the perspective of vehicle manufacturers and others involved in the development of autonomous technology is the Department’s clear expression of its intent to assert federal

At the same time, NHTSA put developers of autonomous vehicle technology on notice that it will exercise its available regulatory authority over HAVs using its existing regulatory tools www.automotivemegatrends.com

authority over the manufacturer of HAVs in order to ensure nationwide uniformity in safety and equipment standards. The assertion of federal authority is essential to avoiding a patchwork of inconsistent state laws that could inhibit development and adoption of HAVs and limit the free ﬂow of vehicles and their users across state lines. With that goal in mind, NHTSA included in the FAVP a model state policy which “presents a clear distinction between Federal and State responsibilities for regulation of highly automated vehicles, and suggests recommended policy areas for states to consider with a goal of generating a consistent national framework for the testing and deployment of highly automated vehicles.” Thus, NHTSA would maintain control over safety and equipment standards while states would retain their traditional responsibilities for vehicle licensing and registration, traffic laws and enforcement, and motor vehicle insurance and liability regimes. This welcome new policy comes at critical juncture in the development and deployment of HAVs, as various states have begun to enact legislation regarding various aspects of HAV regulation. As of the date of this writing, at least nine US states have enacted legislation relating to HAVs with another ten considering such legislation. States have focused their legislative efforts on two principal areas: (1) regulating the testing of HAVs and (2) promulgating rules that govern the deployment of HAVs. California was one of the ﬁrst states to regulate

Regulating autonomous cars testing of autonomous vehicles, passing Senate Bill 1298 in September 2012, which established an autonomous vehicle certiﬁcation requirement and directed the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) to promulgate further regulations regarding the safe operation of such vehicles on public roads. Other states have followed suit with laws of their own, including Nevada, Michigan, Florida Tennessee, North Dakota, Utah and the District of Columbia. Some states have gone further, regulating issues of liability and insurance. For example, Michigan, home to the American automotive industry, has enacted protective legislation that declared that an original manufacturer of a vehicle is not liable for damages that result from a third party’s conversion of that vehicle into an HAV, unless the defect in question was present at the time of manufacture.

by location or road type, under which the vehicles are incapable of operating in the autonomous mode and certify that the vehicles are incapable of operating in autonomous mode under those conditions.” It remains to be seen just how the tension between federal authority over vehicle safety and equipment standards and local control over licensing and registration requirements will be resolved. Also yet to be fully addressed are the nettlesome privacy and data security issues presented by the proliferation of autonomous vehicles, which continuously gather and transmit data for both operational and educational purposes. Consistent with its preference for self-regulation, the FAVP imposes no compulsory regulations. Instead, NHTSA draws upon the fair information privacy principles adopted by the Federal Trade Commission and urges participants to employ these

Another thorny issue yet to be fully addressed is the nettlesome privacy and data security issues presented by the proliferation of autonomous vehicles, which continuously gather and transmit data for both operational and educational purposes On the regulatory front, the California DMV recently issued a set of proposed regulations that have elicited strong objections from industry organisations which claim that the new rules would upset the selfregulatory framework espoused by NHTSA by enshrining the Department’s voluntary guidance into compulsory regulations. For example, the proposed DMV regulations would require manufacturers to “certify that the vehicles are incapable of operating in the autonomous mode in areas outside of the disclosed operational design domain” and to “identify commonly-occurring or restricted conditions, including but not limited to: snow, fog, black ice, wet road surfaces, construction zones, and geo-fencing

principles in the design and operation of autonomous vehicles. Those principles – transparency, choice, data minimisation, data security, and accountability – are not yet embodied in any statute, but have been frequently invoked by the FTC in privacy-focused enforcement actions. Nevertheless, the privacy and security of personal data collected by autonomous vehicles is sure to be a key focus of regulatory activity on both the state and federal level in years to come. For now, one thing is clear – government agencies in both Europe and the US are embracing the promise of autonomous vehicle technology and appear determined not to stand in its way.

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