Load combination forecasting based on power grid with environmental characteristics

Page 1

Scientific Journal of Control Engineering June 2013, Volume 3 Issue 3, PP.129-137

Load Combination Forecasting Based on Power Grid with Environmental Characteristics Pei Ao, Shuaibin Shu Henan Normal University/Computer & Information Technology College, Xinxiang 453007, China #

Email: aopei16@sina.cn

Abstract In this paper, the appropriate individual forecasting models are selected based on the characteristics of underground power load. Then, these individual forecasting models is filtered by comprehensive validity and model redundancy verification. And a combination forecasting method based on IOWHA operator is proposed. In this method, forecasting values of individual model with higher accuracy are substituted for historical data by Dempster synthesize rule. The defect that data are unknown during actual forecasting period is overcome. The concept of equal dimension information is introduced in this model. The forecasting results can reflect the development law of load by this concept reasonably. Verified by an example, combination forecasting model in this paper is suitable for forecasting underground power load in coal mine. And the forecasting accuracy can be improved effectively. Keywords: Load Combination Forecasting; IOWHA Operator; Comprehensive Validity; Model Redundancy Verification; Dempster Synthesize Rule

环境特性电网负荷组合预测* 敖培,苏帅斌 河南师范大学 计算机与信息工程学院,河南 新乡 453007 摘

要:本文在分析煤矿井下电力负荷特性的基础上选取适用的单项预测模型,然后根据综合预测有效度和模型冗余校

验对单项预测模型进行筛选。提出一种基于改进 IOWHA 算子的组合预测方法对井下电力负荷进行预测,即应用 Dempster 合成法则筛选精度较优的单项模型预测值替代历史数据,克服实际预测期数据未知的缺陷;在预测过程中引入等维信息 概念,使预测结果能够更合理地反映负荷发展规律。预测结果表明,本文提出的预测方法适用于预测井下电力负荷,并 能有效提高预测精度。 关键词:负荷组合预测;IOWHA 算子;预测有效度;模型冗余检验;Dempster 合成法则

引言 煤矿电网是电力系统的一个特殊分支,运行环境恶劣。随着煤矿生产规模的不断扩大,机械和自动化水 平的不断提高,井下电力负荷特性也有了较大变化。根据井下负荷特性,研究适用于井下电力负荷预测的方 法,准确预测负荷变化,是合理制定井下电力系统规划的基础。目前,负荷预测的单项模型非常多,但任何 一种模型都不能完全反映电力负荷的变化规律和信息。因此,对电力负荷进行组合预测已成为国内外学者的 共识。 筛选有效适用的单项预测模型,是进行负荷组预测的前提。本文在分析井下负荷特性的基础上,选用适 当的单项预测模型,并提出基于综合预测有效度和模型冗余检验,对单项预测模型进行筛选。然后,针对传 *

基金资助:河南省教育厅科学技术研究重点项目基础研究计划(No13A413506);河南师范大学新引进博士科研启动费支持课题 (No.qd12136)。 - 129 http://www.sj-ce.org/


Turn static files into dynamic content formats.

Create a flipbook
Issuu converts static files into: digital portfolios, online yearbooks, online catalogs, digital photo albums and more. Sign up and create your flipbook.