Climate Change Strategy Phase 1: MidCoast Council
8.3 Grid decarbonisation Description
In NSW there are five coal-fired power stations with combined 10,240 MW capacity that supply most of the State’s electricity and make up the majority of electricity sector emissions (Liddell, Vales Point B, Eraring, Bayswater and Mount Piper). The state is largely self-reliant for power, with this supplemented by interstate links as and when required. Since 2010 three coal-fired power stations with 1,744 MW of capacity have closed in NSW (Wallerawang C, Redbank and Munmorah). In recent years the development of large-scale solar and wind energy generation has accelerated in NSW, and battery storage and pumped hydro are beginning to be developed alongside these intermittent generation sources. A total of 11,000 MW of capacity in two Renewable Energy Zones was recently announced for the State’s Central West Orana and New England regions. In addition, rooftop solar installations have accelerated in recent years. As more coal-fired power stations approach the end of their life – announced closures are in 2023, 2028, 2034, 2035 and 2043 respectively for the five active coalfired power stations noted above – they will be replaced with mostly renewable energy. This is most likely to be from large-scale wind and solar PV, together with Distributed Energy Resources (DER) and demand-side measures. Assuming this, the future carbon intensity of the NSW grid will decline, gradually until around 2035, then accelerating towards zero by the mid-2040s. The grid emissions intensity will be influenced by a range of factors, and AEMO’s Integrated System Plan 202024 (ISP2020) models five scenarios with differing assumptions for key influencing factors including demand drivers, DER uptake, emissions, large-scale renewable build cost trajectories, investment and retirement considerations, gas market settings and coal price settings, together with assumptions regarding policy settings and transmission infrastructure development. The resultant scenario outcomes for closure of large-scale generators in the NEM is illustrated below, highlighting the potential for a rapid transition to renewables.
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AEMO: https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp/2020integrated-system-plan-isp
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