SPATIAL REPORT // Peri-Urban Land Use Relationships

PLUREL

PERI-URBAN LAND USE RELATIONSHIPS Strategies and Sustainability Assessment Tools for Urban-Rural Linkages

3

chapter 3.1

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

Plurel

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

6

CHAPTER 3

Chapter 3.1 Leipzig, Germany

Chapter 3.2 Greater Manchester, United Kingdom

Chapter 3.3 Haaglanden The city region of Haaglanden, The Netherlands

Chapter 3.4 Warsaw, Poland

Chapter 3.5 Koper region, Slovenia

Chapter 3.6 Montpellier, France

Chapter 3.7 Hangzhou, China

7

chapter 3.1

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

Plurel

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

8

Chapter 3.1

Between growth and shrinkage?

The Leipzig-Halle case study in Central Europe

Dagmar Haase, Nina Schwarz, Annette Bauer, Nadja Kabisch, Michael Strohbach, Iris Reuther, Bertram Schiffers, Dietmar Rรถhl, Bernd Augsburg, Ralf Thomas, Sigrun Kabisch and Ralf Seppelt

9

chapter 3.1

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

pzig

Leipzig

LOCATION IN GERMANY

STUDY AREA [PRESENT MAP]

RUR TYPOLOGY

4,390 KM2

1,000 KM2 [10%]

1,000 KM2 [10%]

TOTAL SURFACE AREA

BUILT UP AREA

INDUSTRY

1,000 KM2 [10%]

1,000 KM2 [10%]

1,000 KM2 [10%]

AGRICULTURE

GREENHOUSES

OPEN GREEN AREA

1,000 KM2 [10%]

1,000 KM2 [10%]

1,000 KM2 [10%]

RECREATIONAL AREA

WATER

INFRASTRUCTURE

Plurel

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

10

41,2 KM2

GREEN SPACE PER CAPITA

SHRINK POPULATION

1,073,000

NUMBER OF INHABITANTS

1,073,000

NUMBER OF HOUSHOLDS

41,2 KM2

HOUSING DENSITY

41,2 kWh/d PER PERSON ENERGY CONSUMPTION

11

10%

chapter 3.1

€ 9.000

10%

GROWTH POPULATION

41,2 KM2

POPULATION DENSITY

10%

GDP / CAPITA

UNEMPLOYMENT

41,2 M3 CAPITA PER YEAR

41,2 KG CAPITA PER YEAR

WATER CONSUMPTION

HOUSEHOLD WASTE

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

Plurel

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

12

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Leipzig-Halle case study region has experienced a very dynamic development from population growth to shrinkage and again to a smart revival during the last 20 years (Photos page 1). Industrial decline and out-migration to western Germany after the German re-unification, the emergence of commercial parks in the peri-urban area and popularity of single-family houses in sum led to a land use pattern which is characterised by simultaneous growth and shrinkage within the region. Today, demographic change – that is out-migration, low replacement levels, ageing and longevity, increase of one-person households – is an additional and very important driver of major residential land use changes in both the urban and the peri-urban area of Leipzig-Halle.

The simultaneity of urban growth and shrinkage and its consequences for the built environment is the major concern of the case study region of Leipzig-Halle. How to manage an oversupply and non-satisfied demand on housing and commercial space at the same time? What impact do these dynamics have on peri-urban open space and agricultural land? On the one hand, peri-urban land take will have negative consequences in terms of a decrease of natural land and environmental quality. But on the other hand particularly shrinkage in the cores of the cities Leipzig and Halle offers various alternative land use options to develop high quality urban green space and to reduce land take in the peri-urban area because of infill construction. The simultaneity of urban growth and shrinkage is not only a phenomenon which affects eastern German cities but an increasing number of European large cities a report by EUROCITIES suggest (Kabisch et al., 2009).

This makes Leipzig-Halle an extremely interesting and challenging case study to learn from.

In order to answer the above questions, PLUREL provides a range of innovative methods: Trajectories of demographic development show likely future paths for population and therefore housing demand. These feed into dynamic land use change modelling, which provides maps of future land use changes in the region. These land use change scenarios are evaluated in terms of environmental, social and economic effects in an Impact Assessment. As land use change is a result of interactions between actors, communication patterns are analysed as well using input from key stakeholders in form of an analysis of strategies and governance structure to promote the enhancement of the urban green infrastructure.

PLUREL RESEARCH AIMS FOR LEIPZIG-HALLE The major aims of PLUREL in the Leipzig-Halle case study were: 1 to quantitatively model and analyse likely land use developments within the rural-urban region; 2 to assess implications of current and future land use patterns on ecosystem services, quality of life, potential costs and benefits; 3 to discern options for steering land use change in order to develop suggestions for better planning practice in the light of research results.

13

chapter 3.1

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

Leipzig

Dagmar Haase, Nina Schwarz, Annette Bauer, Nadja Kabisch, Michael Strohbach, Iris Reuther, Bertram Schiffers, Dietmar Rรถhl, Bernd Augsburg, Ralf Thomas, Sigrun Kabisch and Ralf Seppelt

Plurel

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

14

15

chapter 3.1

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

4,390 KM2 TOTAL SURFACE AREA

1,073,000 INHABITANTS

CONTEXT The conurbation of Leipzig-Halle (4,390 km2 and about 1,073,000 inhabitants in 2008) has a long history as an important bi-polar urban centre in Central Europe (FIGURE 1). The core of the urban region, the city of Leipzig (with 530,000 inhabitants in 1989 and 520,000 in 2008), is presently challenged by (decreasing) suburban growth and international investments on the one hand, and a simultaneous and heterogeneous inner-city growth-shrinkage pattern, residential migration and locally very low rental costs on the other.

Compared to that, the other urban centre, the city of Halle (with 309,406 inhabitants in 1989 and 230,900 in 2008) is faced with an ongoing decline in population.

In the eastern part of Germany, the former socialist German Democratic Republic (GDR), processes of urban sprawl were almost unknown during the post-World War II period. This was due to the socialist planning system directing investments primarily to urban centres. Only the building of the notorious prefabricated housing estates on the urban fringes could be seen as a peculiarly ‘socialist variant’ of urban sprawl. In the urban region of Leipzig-Halle, such estates provided housing mostly for people from old, run-down built-up areas and from demolished villages of the open-pit mining area south of the region. Apart from the inner cities, which consist of a solid, dense structure of 19th and 20th century tenement-kind blocks, the cities’ territories contain large areas of the typically suburban mixture of land uses. These include agricultural open land, forests and restoration areas (Haase and Nuissl, 2007).

Before and after the GDR-time, however, large-scale changes in land use were quite common in the region. The region experienced a period of vibrant growth between approx. 1870 and 1930. City development was accompanied by urbanisation of the former city’s rural surroundings.

From 1989, post-socialist transformation ushered in a period of heavy urban sprawl, with shopping malls, enterprise zones and residential ‘parks’ spreading – in this order – in the outskirts and into the suburban townships. Industrial decline, low birth rates, out-migration (Figure 2), ageing in combination with residential vacancies, however, contradicted the expectations linked to these investments. This led to a large oversupply on the markets for housing, office space and developed land in general (Nuissl and Rink, 2005).

38

M2 The case study region of Leipzig-Halle embedded in its surrounding municipalities (classification according to Loibl and Köstl, 2008).

Plurel

The conurbation of Leipzig-Halle (4,390 km2 and about 1,073,000 inhabitants in 2008) has a long history as an important bi-polar urban centre in Central Europe. The core of the urban region, the city of Leipzig (with 530,000 inhabitants in 1989 and 520,000 in 2008), is presently challenged by (decreasing) suburban growth and international investments on the one hand, and a simultaneous and heterogeneous inner-city growth-shrinkage pattern, residential migration and locally very low rental costs on the other. Compared to that, the other urban centre, the city of Halle is faced with an ongoing decline in population.

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

16

Steering these developments is even more complicated than elsewhere because the region of Leipzig-Halle belongs to two different German federal states: Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt. Federal states are of major importance for spatial planning in Germany and have different planning laws and procedures. Therefore, neither a common plannig policy nor joint governance structures are developed or available for steering land use changes towards more sustainability; cooperation between planning agencies on various levels within the region is still in its infancy (Bauer et al., 2009).

FIGURE 1 The case study region of Leipzig-Halle embedded in its surrounding municipalities (classification according to Loibl and Kรถstl, 2008).

17

chapter 3.1

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

CURRENT LAND USE PATTERNS Using the European land cover data set CORINE (EEA, 2006) a range of land use changes in the region of Leipzig-Halle was identified between 1990 and 2000 (FIGURE 3): major land consumption took place in the peri-urban area around both cities. These are predominantly land cover changes from arable (open) land to either residential land (= urban fabric land use classes in CORINE; 1300 hectares), transport (airports, streets; 720 hectares) or commercial land (>1800 hectares). Due to large soft coal resources in the surroundings of both core cities, Leipzig and Halle, another remarkable land use change was found to be from arable land to mineral extraction sites (>1500 hectares; Haase and Schwarz, 2008; Figure 4).

Whereas residential sprawl in the region was identified in the surrounding municipalities right around the core cities most of the commercial development occurred in the area between Leipzig and Halle where the airport ist located. Large firm-owned logistic centres are situated around the airport today, such as Quelle or German Post along with new enterprises of the car industry (BMW, Porsche) and shopping malls. For all these new residential and commercial land uses the sealing rates are rather high; between 60-80% (Haase, 2009). Since the late 1990s the residential but also the commercial sprawl around Leipzig-Halle has abated considerably after the shocking growth rates of 1990ff. But we also detect reverse forms of land use change – a release of land formerly dedicated as mineral extraction sites to open, sparsely vegetated or arable land (>4000 hectares) or to water bodies (1700 hectares).

The region’s present situation is rather paradoxical, turning it into an interesting case for PLUREL. Ongoing dynamics of suburban growth (single and semi-detached housing settlements, new ‘housing parks’) with adjacent, partly over-dimensioned construction activities at the urban fringe should be acknowledged. Simultaneous depopulation and related shrinkage, residential vacancy, and ‘perforation’ followed by demolition in the inner city areas also need to be considered. The main PLUREL research question for the Leipzig-Halle region is the following: How do we steer sustainable land use development in an urban region with close neighbourhoods of ‘islands of urban growth’ next to urban vacancies and peri-urban shrinkage?

The Leipzig-Halle region is a suitable example for carrying out an ex-post analysis of social, economic and environmental consequences of postsocialist, highly dynamic land conversion, extreme urban sprawl and considerable shrinkage under conditions of demographic change. The regions interest in shrinkage issues is demonstrated by various international events on the issue hosted during the past decade, such as the exhibition of ‘Shrinking Cities’.

Plurel

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

18

FIGURE 2 Change of the number of total population in the case study area between 1990 and 2000 and between 2001 and 2007 (Source: Agencies for statistics Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt).

19

chapter 3.1

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

FIGURE 3 Land use in the case study region of Leipzig-Halle detected by CORINE Land Cover in 1990 and 2000 (Haase and Schwarz, 2008).

Plurel

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

20

FIGURE 4

LAND USE CHANGE IN THE LEIPZIG RUR (DED3)

Land use accounts and flows between 1990 and

transitional woodland-shrub to mineral extraction sites

2000 (in hectare; Haase and

natural grasslands to mineral extraction sites

9

mixed forest to mineral extraction sites

15

land principally occupied by agriculture (incl. natural vegetation to mineral extraction sites)

5

165

Schwarz, 2008).

non-irrigated arable land to construction sites

79

non-irrigated arable land to mineral extraction sites

1572

non-irrigated arable land to airports

726

non-irrigated arable land to industrial or commercial units

1836

non-irrigated arable land to discontinuous urban fabric

1292

construction sites to discontinuous urban fabric

50

dump sites to land principally occupied by agriculture and natural vegetation

116

mineral extraction sites to water bodies

1691

mineral extraction sites to sparesely vegetated areas

1613

mineral extraction sites to transitional woodland-shrub

1587

mineral extraction sites to natural grasslands

292

mineral extraction sites to land principally occupied by agriculture and natural vegetation

28

mineral extraction sites to non-irrigated arable land

427

airports to industrial or commercial units

217

industrial or commercial units to broad-leaved forest

7

discontinuous urban fabric to mineral extraction sites

6

discontinuous urban fabric to industrial or commercial units

69

0

M2 The case study region of Leipzig-Halle embedded in its surrounding municipalities (classification according to Loibl and Kรถstl, 2008).

21

200

400

600

800

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

The conurbation of Leipzig-Halle (4,390 km2 and about 1,073,000 inhabitants in 2008) has a long history as an important bi-polar urban centre in Central Europe. The core of the urban region, the city of Leipzig (with 530,000 inhabitants in 1989 and 520,000 in 2008), is presently challenged by (decreasing) suburban growth and international investments on the one hand, and a simultaneous and heterogeneous inner-city growth-shrinkage pattern. The conurbation of Leipzig-Halle (4,390 km2 and about 1,073,000 inhabitants in 2008) has a long history as an important bi-polar urban centre in Central Europe. The core of the urban region, the city of Leipzig (with 530,000 inhabitants in 1989 and 520,000 in 2008), is presently challenged by (decreasing) suburban growth and international investments on the one hand, and a simultaneous and heterogeneous inner-city growthshrinkage pattern.

chapter 3.1

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

38

Leipzig

Dagmar Haase, Nina Schwarz, Annette Bauer, Nadja Kabisch, Michael Strohbach, Iris Reuther, Bertram Schiffers, Dietmar Rรถhl, Bernd Augsburg, Ralf Thomas, Sigrun Kabisch and Ralf Seppelt

Plurel

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

22

In this cycle, it is evident that the American age of world power is fully established, while the entire European economy was eclipsing. Of the world’s top 25 cities (circa 1950), six were found in the US during this period, after which this number declined to merely two.

23

chapter 3.1

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

STEERING OPTIONS GOVERNING GROWTH AND SHRINKAGE How can land use be steered and directed? In particular, which options are there to effect shrinkage and growth of the built environment in the Leipzig-Halle region? These are two of the research questions of PLUREL Module 3 on governance and strategic planning scenarios for the LeipzigHalle case study. The context in Leipzig-Halle for spatial planning and governance is a difficult one: Highly differentiated patterns of demographic growth and shrinkage make it impossible to solve land use problems by a one-for-all approach. Furthermore, the administrative segmentation of the region, which is located in two federal states, makes regional cooperation challenging.

SPATIAL PLANNING SYSTEM AND INVOLVED STAKEHOLDERS Spatial planning in the Leipzig-Halle region is a multi-level and multiactor acitivity. While the legal framework is devised at the levels of the national and federal states, decision-making is decentralised (“kommunale Planungshoheit�). Non profit-, economic- and civil society actors are involved in decision-making in planning through mandatory participation as well as within informal spatial planning strategies. Spatial development plans and regional plans, prepared by the federal states and the regional authorities, serve as a guide for local land use planning. Landscape plans are incorporated at all levels (Freistaat Sachsen, 2004). The federal state border running through the Leipzig-Halle region results in a duplication of levels and plans for the region (FIGURES 5 and 6).

FIGURE 5 Spatial planning, levels and main plans, Leipzig-Halle

LEVEL OF STATE

PLAN

federal state

spatial developmet plan

region

regional plan

local authority

prepartory land use plan

case study

Plurel

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

24

FIGURE 6 Stakeholders in spatial

ECONOMY

LOCAL

REGION

FEDERAL STATE

• Plannning agencies

• Metropolitan Region

• Lausitz and Central German

planning, Leipzig-Halle case

• Developers

study

• Construction firms

• Tourism associations

• Investors

• Farmers’ associations

Saxon Triangle

• Mining Administration Company • Central Germany Mining

• Chambers of Commerce

Company

and Industry

• Economic Initiative Central Germany

NON PROFIT

• Public housing

• Saxon Regional

• Public services, water,

• Conservation Foundation

energy, transport GOVERNMENT

• Local authorities

Regional Council Leipzig

• State of Saxony

• Districts

Regional Planning Associa-

• State of Saxony-Anhalt

tions Inter-municipal coorporation organisations Organisations for regional/ rural development CIVIL INITIATIVES

• Nature protection

• Commision for comprehensive planning Saxony/ Saxony-Anhalt (ROKO) • Nature protection

organisations

organisations

WHICH ASPECTS OF STRATEGIES INFLUENCE PERFORMANCE? The ascertainment and analysis of 52 strategies for the case study reveals differences in terms of spatial scale, thematic focus, legal commitment and stakeholder participation in decision making. The implementation of the current spatial planning strategies leads to a strengthening of intermunicipal approaches towards spatial development. In order to assess the suitability of spatial planning strategies for steering growth and shrinkage in peri-urban areas, their aims and conceptions were analysed through in-depth documentary analysis. This approach determines the essential suitability of strategies for managing growth and shrinkage. The following characteristics of strategies are considered pivotal for this task: 1 a strategy’s spatial range – i.e. a focus on the peri-urban area, 2 its main objective – development of settlements and industry, protection of areas or brownfield conversion and 3 its legal commitment.

Strategies characterised by strong legal commitment and a peri-urban focus are considered suitable for managing growth and shrinkage. Protection and development strategies impact both the scope and direction of growth and shrinkage; brownfield redevelopment has the potential to limit greenfield development (BOX 1).

25

chapter 3.1

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

Exemplary typologies: The typologies described below focus on the dimensions spatial range and legal commitment of spatial planning strategies. Typologies were developed in order to determine the suitability of strategies for effecting growth and shrinkage of the built environment.

Their empirical basis is an ascertainment and analysis of current spatial planning strategies in the Leipzig-Halle region via documentary analysis.

The typologies refer to individual and groups of strategies, e.g. the state contract Saxony/Saxony-Anhalt and regional plans.

BOX 1 Typology of spatial planning strategies

Spatial range: dimension: spatial-administrative unit a strategy refers to.

Resulting types: local authority, region, federal state.

Legal commitment: dimension: the extent of mandatory commitment entailed in strategy adoption and implementation. Resulting types: weak (e.g. city networks), medium (e.g. contractual cooperation) and strong legal commitment (e.g. development plans).

Application to spatial planning strategies: Leipzig-Halle case study.

FEDERAL STATE

LEP* spatial monitoring

state contract Saxony/Saxony-Anhalt

SPATIAL RANGE

city networks

PLANNING REGION

regional plan

CASE STUDY REGION inter-municipal cooperation

LOCAL AUTHORITY

development & preparatory land use plan STRONG

REK, ILEK**

urban development concepts MEDIUM

WEAK

LEGAL COMMITMENT

BOX 2 Development of locally adapted scenario storylines for an rural-urban region

Plurel

Methodology: The locally adapted land use scenarios for the rural-urban region of Leipzig-Halle were based on the PLUREL scenarios (page XXX) but locally adapted bringing in regional specifics, dynamics and planning in. To make to scenarios not too complex and comprehensible, different assumptions on general driving factors of land use change were made in accordance between scientists and stakeholders: population, economy and spatial planning/land use development. Using these three factors, a matrix was developed that combines diverging assumptions on demographic and economic development (growth, shrinkage) with the strength and stringence of spatial planning (strong, laissez-faire).

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

26

LOCAL NO RESTRICTIONS

PLANNING

PLANNING

STRONG PLANNING

INSTRUMENTS IMPLEMENTED

DRIVERS GROWTH

- hypertech*

(POPULATION,

- uncontrolled growth **

- managed growth

GDP

BASELINE

- business as usual

- eco-environ.

- compact eco

SHRINKAGE

- uncontrolled shrinkage **

- managed shrinkage

* pink: Qualitative framework storylines from Module 1 in PLUREL ** dark blue: Locally adapted storylines produced in a stakeholder workshop

M2 The case study region of Leipzig-Halle embedded in its surrounding municipalities (classification according to Loibl and Köstl, 2008).

The conurbation of Leipzig-Halle (4,390 km2 and about 1,073,000 inhabitants in 2008) has a long history as an important bi-polar urban centre in Central Europe. The core of the urban region, the city of Leipzig (with 530,000 inhabitants in 1989 and 520,000 in 2008), is presently challenged by (decreasing) suburban growth and international investments on the one hand, and a simultaneous and heterogeneous inner-city growth-shrinkage pattern.

RESULTS OF LAND USE CHANGE MODELLING Figures 6 and 7 show the results of the spatially explicit MOLAND land use change modelling for the region Leipzig-Halle. Overall, an increase of sealed and built surfaces can be found. Whereas in the ‘Business as usual’ (BAU) scenario the amount of discontinuous, low density residential land increases most, in the ‘Hypertech’ scenario most of the growth is due to commercial land development. As the ‘Hypertech’ scenario assumes an somehow extreme development this goes along with a stronger segregation of the land use and thus the core cities of Leipzig and Halle are faced with demolition of buildings in their centres, while residential land in the peri-urban area is growing. This inner-urban decline of sealed surface does not occur in the “more managed” ‘Business as usual’ scenario. Most of the built and sealed land comes from either the agricultural areas, the natural green spaces and floodplains in the cities’ surroundings or the former sites of mineral extraction (Figure 8) which are more or less continuously declining in both scenarios. In the ‘Hypertech’ scenario, the expansion of the Leipzig-Halle airport leads to a big step of land consumption in 2010. In terms of open land, we find a decrease of up to 25% (Figure 9). Natural green spaces, in particular, decline up to 60%.

27

chapter 3.1

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

38

FIGURE 7

BUSINESS AS USUAL

Locally adapted scenario storylines for the MOLAND land use change modelling case study region of Leipzig-Halle

UNCONTROLLED GROWTH

ECO- ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIO

Plurel

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

28

FIGURE 8

2001

Resulting maps of the Land Use Change Modelling using the MOLAND model based on Corine Land Cover 2000 (Petrov et al., 2009; Haase & Petrov, 2009)

2025 SMART GROWTH ‘BUSINESS AS USUAL’

2025 EXTREME GROWTH ‘HYPERTECH’

29

chapter 3.1

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

FIGURE 9 Results of land use change modelling for selected land use types (Haase and Petrov, 2009); BAU = Business as usual

Plurel

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

30

PROCESS

?

Should this be in cluded in the book?

M1 Results of land use change modelling for selected land use types (Haase and Petrov, 2009); BAU = Business as usual

31

SCENARIO WORKSHOP ON SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT A scenario workshop to evaluate spatial planning and governance – does that make sense? Yes, so the joint conclusion of both the participating stakeholders and the organising team of a workshop in Leipzig in February 2009. Under diverging assumptions of demographic and economic growth and decline, local and regional actors visulised future land use developments. This scenario/planning game was played for three distinct scenarios (BOX 3; FIGURE 10).

Results include possible regional focal points of growth and shrinkage as well as their implications and an assessment of spatial planning and governance. Practitioners emphasised the potential contribution of such workshops to more communication between stakeholders from the Leipzig-Halle region. All three groups concluded that the cities of Leipzig and Halle will be able to retain their central functions. A further commonality between all is the suggestion of a revision of regional planning and governance, i.e. a joint forum for regional planning and the introduction of a development plan for the metropolitan area of Leipzig-Halle. The abandonment of rural settlements is anticipated in the scenarios “managed shrinkage” and “uncontrolled growth” (FIGURE 11). The latter scenario furthermore addresses the loss of green open space. Further effects of both scenarios discussed by participants are social polarisation within cities the growth of gated communities and the reduction of central places and public infrastructure. Methodological learning refers to combining focus groups and scenario development: The method worked as a way to get to know the diverse perspectives of participants on governing shrinkage and to discern common and contested positions (BOX 4).

Participants came from regional and local planning offices from the case study region. Furthermore, represenatives of NGOs, private planning agencies, service suppliers and scientists from different disciplinary backgrounds took part.

A scenario workshop to evaluate spatial planning and governance – does that make sense? Yes, so the joint conclusion of both the participating stakeholders and the organising team of a workshop in Leipzig in February 2009. Under diverging assumptions of demographic and economic growth and decline, local and regional actors visulised future land use developments. This scenario/planning game was played for three distinct scenarios (BOX 3; FIGURE 10).

Results include possible regional focal points of growth and shrinkage as well as their implications and an assessment of spatial planning and governance. Practitioners emphasised the potential contribution of such workshops to more communication between stakeholders from the Leipzig-Halle region. All three groups concluded that the cities of Leipzig and Halle will be able to retain their central functions. A further commonality between all is the suggestion of a revision of regional planning and governance, i.e. a joint forum for regional planning and the introduction of a development plan for the metropolitan area. chapter 3.1

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

20

Leipzig

Dagmar Haase, Nina Schwarz, Annette Bauer, Nadja Kabisch, Michael Strohbach, Iris Reuther, Bertram Schiffers, Dietmar Rรถhl, Bernd Augsburg, Ralf Thomas, Sigrun Kabisch and Ralf Seppelt

Plurel

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

32

In this cycle, it is evident that the American age of world power is fully established, while the entire European economy was eclipsing. Of the world’s top 25 cities (circa 1950), six were found in the US during this period, after which this number declined to merely two.

33

chapter 3.1

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

BOX 3 Participatory approach of land use development – a planning game

SCENARIO GAME The reflection upon possible development paths of the Leipzig-Halle region by practitioners and scientists was the central element of the scenario game . Using background data provided by the scientists, spatial scenarios were developed within three groups (see below). As an input, a short story set in the year 2025 was told to characterise each scenario. Materials included a blank map, a number of land use tokens according to the scenario as well as pens and glue. The participants developed spatial visions and strategic positions in three distinct, consecutive stages.

Scenario 1 Unrestrained Development

Scenario 2 Moderate, managed Growth

Scenario 3 Managed Shrinkage

Phase 1 “Regional Design Studio“: Spatial Vision Task: Designing and visualising a spatial picture of the region in the year 2025.

Questions: How are land uses distributed in the urban region? What are the most prominent features of the scenario?

Joker: a special event or project that could change the development of the region.

Participants were asked to distribute given land use tokens for residential, industrial and green space on a map of the region. The result was a spatial interpretation of the quantitative land use framework of the MOLAND model (FIGURES 8 and 9).

Phase 2 “College of Experts“: Drivers, Tools, Conflicts Task: Discussion and presentation of the preconditions for the scenarios Questions: Which drivers and institutions could lead to the scenario designed in phase 1? What conflicts and costs result from it?

The second stage served a critical disussion of the spatial visions based on the scientific knowledge as well as regional background of participants.

Phase 3: “Regional Council“: Reflection and outlook Task: Check of the scenarios with the (political) reality in 2009, critique Questions: How desireable / threatening / realistic is the scenario?

Should it be pursued by science / planning / politics?

Scnearios were analysed with respect to their usability for regional development and research. Participants took the role of politicians in a (yet fictional) regional council, who had to decide on the future of the Leipzig-Halle region (BOX 4).

Special Edition of the “East Central“ television journal (discussion and conclusions): The plenary (Situation TV studio) heard the reports from the three tables, followed by a comment of the organizers on the consequences of the workshop for their research.

Text: Bertram Schiffers

Plurel

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

34

FIGURE 10 Impression from the planning game at the regional workshop

FIGURE 11

A

Resulting maps of the planning game

C

B

A Extreme growth B Smart growth C Smart shrinkage

35

chapter 3.1

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

BOX 4 Output of the scenario game- implications for spatial planning strategies

Practitioners and researchers from the Leipzig-Halle region discussed drivers and implications of land use change for three distinct scenarios: (1) extreme growth, (2) smart growth and (3) smart shrinkage. The discussion results supplemented the MOLAND model’s set of drivers of land use change, thereby contributing to the calibration of the model to the LeipzigHalle region. The current state of land use and regional governance was the baseline for identifying changes in terms of spatial planning instruments and governance. Discussion results are summarised in the below table.

EXTREME GROWTH

SMART GROWTH

SMART SHRINKAGE

DRIVERS OF

- demography

- demography

- demography

CHANGE

- immigration

- immigration

- public budget

- segregation

- public budget

- selective

- public budget

- reurbanisation

- weak planning

- state-led governance

- private investments

- private investments

- non EU-funds

- EU-funds

INSTRUMENTS

- fusion of states

- fusion of states

- fusion of states

GOVERNANCE

- privatisation of

- regional planning

- regional planning

public services

for entire region

for entire region

- support of local

- common strategy

- city-region-policy

industries

investments - strong regional planning and policy

- pool of areas

- regional marketing - infrastructure plan

Plurel

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

36

Leipzig

Dagmar Haase, Nina Schwarz, Annette Bauer, Nadja Kabisch, Michael Strohbach, Iris Reuther, Bertram Schiffers, Dietmar Rรถhl, Bernd Augsburg, Ralf Thomas, Sigrun Kabisch and Ralf Seppelt

37

chapter 3.1

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

Abstract A globalized governmetntfocused society: with an energy price shock, laeding to rapidly increasing energy and transport costs, with consequent changes in mobility, trade flows and urban development.

SCENARIO 01 – STORYLINE

[3X]

In this cycle, it is evident that the American age of world power is fully established, while the entire European economy was eclipsing (FIGURE 12). Of the world’s top 25 cities (circa 1950), six were found in the US during this period, after which this number declined to merely two (circa 2000). New York was ranked at 1st place with a population of 12.3 million, followed by London with 8.9 million. The bi-centric network axis, which had begun to emerge in the previous period, now became fully established, with a growing density of trade between Europe and America. It is also apparent that the further formation of the ‘triad’ was underway at that time, considering the increase in linkages to a ‘rising’ Japan. At the time Tokyo already ranked as the 3rd largest world city, with 7.5 million people (Chandler, 1987).

During this period, with the boom in the US and the slow revival of the European economy, a new era of transcontinental links was forged, where Fordist mass production and the expansion of the network through highways and airlines proliferated and where international economies and nations started to propagate. It is therefore not surprising that city network concepts emerged at that time, as can be seen in the classic studies, The Nature of Cities, by Chauncy Harris and Edward Ullman (1945) and Cities as Systems within Systems of Cities,

by Brian Berry (1964). In these, the main premise was that cities are comprised of both internal relations and external relations to other cities, including the intensification of inter-firm and political hierarchies and widespread strategies of collaboration and competition.

Transitions/ shock agenda: During this period, with the boom in the US and the slow revival of the European economy, a new era of transcontinental links was forged, where Fordist mass production and the expansion of the network through highways and airlines proliferated and where international economies and nations started to propagate.

During this period, with the boom in the US and the slow revival of the European economy, a new era of transcontinental links was forged, where Fordist mass production and the expansion of the network through highways and airlines proliferated and where international economies and nations started to propagate. It is therefore not surprising that city network concepts emerged at that time, as can be seen in the classic studies, The Nature of Cities, by Chauncy Harris and Edward Ullman (1945) and Cities as Systems within Systems of Cities,

by Brian Berry (1964). In these, the main premise was that cities are comprised of both internal relations and external relations to other cities, including the intensification of inter-firm and political hierarchies and widespread strategies of collaboration and competition.

This was the rise of the megalopolis, developing with London and spreading to New York and Tokyo (Bairoch, 1988). In this cycle, it is evident that the American age of world power is fully established, while the entire European economy was eclipsing (FIGURE 12).

Plurel

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

38

By 1935, over half of all American families owned an automobile, paralleled by the purchase of household utilities such as washing machines, refrigerators, and dishwashers. This ‘Golden industry. Retail distribution emerged in the form of grocery store self-service, supermarkets and

In these, the main premise was that cities are comprised of both internal relations and external relations to other cities, including the intensification of inter-firm and political hierarchies and widespread strategies of collaboration and competition. This was the rise of the megalopolis, developing with London and spreading to New York and Tokyo (Bairoch, 1988). In this cycle, it is evident that the American age of world power is fully established, while the entire European economy was eclipsing (FIGURE 12). It is also apparent that the further formation of the ‘triad’ was underway at that time, considering the increase in linkages to a ‘rising’ Japan. At the time Tokyo already ranked as the 3rd largest world city, with 7.5 million people (Chandler, 1987).

hypermarkets, and this subsequently led to giant firms and the distribution of standardized packaged products. (Bluestone, 1980).

This was the rise of the megalopolis, developing with London and spreading to New York and Tokyo (Bairoch, 1988). In this cycle, it is evident that the American age of world power is fully established, while the entire European economy was eclipsing (FIGURE 12). The bi-centric network axis, which had begun to emerge in the previous period, now became fully established, with a growing density of trade between Europe and America. It is also apparent that the further formation of the ‘triad’ was underway at that time, considering the increase in linkages to a ‘rising’ Japan. At the time Tokyo already ranked as the 3rd largest world city, with 7.5 million people. In this cycle, it is evident that the American age of world power is fully established, while the entire European economy was eclipsing. Of the world’s top 25 cities, six were found in the US during this period, after which this number declined to merely two. New York was ranked at 1st place with a population of 12.3 million.

In this cycle, it is evident that the American age of world power is fully established, while the entire European economy was eclipsing (Figure 12). Of the world’s top 25 cities (circa 1950), six were found in the US during this period, after which this number declined to merely two (circa 2000). New York was ranked at 1st place with a population of 12.3 million, followed by London with 8.9 million. This was the rise of the megalopolis, developing with London and spreading to New York and Tokyo (Bairoch, 1988).

39

chapter 3.1

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

This was the rise of the megalopolis, developing with London and spreading to New York and Tokyo (Bairoch, 1988). In this cycle, it is evident that the American age of world power is fully established, while the entire European economy was eclipsing (FIGURE 12). During this period, with the boom in the US and the slow revival of the European economy, a new era of transcontinental links was forged, where Fordist mass production and re international economies and nations started to propagate.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PERI-URBAN LAND USE RELATIONSHIPS

The bi-centric network axis, which had begun to emerge in the previous period, now became fully established, with a growing density of trade between Europe and America. It is also apparent that the further formation of the ‘triad’ was underway at that time, considering the increase in linkages to a ‘rising’ Japan. At the time Tokyo already ranked as the 3rd largest world city, with 7.5 million people (Chandler, 1987).

In this cycle, it is evident that the American age of world power is fully established, while the entire European economy was eclipsing (FIGURE 12)). Of the world’s top 25 cities (circa 1950), six were found in the US during this period, after which this number declined to merely two (circa 2000). New York was ranked at 1st place with a population of 12.3 million, followed by London with 8.9 million.

During this period, with the boom in the US and the slow revival of the European economy, a new era of transcontinental links was forged, where Fordist mass production and the expansion of the network through highways and airlines proliferated and where international economies and nations started to propagate. period, now became fully established, with a growing density of trade between Europe and America. It is also apparent that the further formation of the ‘triad’ was underway at that time, considering the increase in linkages to a ‘rising’ Japan. At the time Tokyo already ranked as the 3rd largest world city, with 7.5 million people (Chandler, 1987).

In this cycle, it is evident that the American age of world power is fully established, while the entire European economy was eclipsing (FIGURE 12). Of the world’s top 25 cities (circa 1950), six were found in the US during this period, after which this number declined to merely two (circa 2000). New York was ranked at 1st place with a population of 12.3 million, followed by London with 8.9 million. It was also during this period that ‘cities in national systems’ were analyzed as a relationship between their rank and population size. The reference par excellence on the law of city size distribution is Zipf’s Law (1949), which was significant because it introduced statistics to urban studies.

This was the rise of the megalopolis, developing with London and spreading to New York and Tokyo (Bairoch, 1988). It is interesting to see that although Amsterdam was London’s predecessor in terms of economic power, it was never even close to being the largest city. The strength of the Dutch was, and still is, their ‘gross’ high urban levels and international trade levels.

Plurel

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

40

M2

20

TRENDS IN ARABLE LAND By 1935, over half of all American families owned an automobile, paralleled by the purchase of household utilities such as washing machines, refrigerators, and dishwashers.

M2

A

20

B

20

C

20

LANDUSE FOR YEAR 2000 (ACTUAL) By 1935, over half of all American families owned an automobile, paralleled by the purchase of household utilities such as washing machines, refrigerators, and dishwashers.

M2 LANDUSE FOR YEAR 2025 (SIMULATED) By 1935, over half of all American families owned an automobile, paralleled by the purchase of household utilities such as washing machines, refrigerators, and dishwashers.

M2 SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION By 1935, over half of all American families owned an automobile, paralleled by the purchase of household utilities such as washing machines, refrigerators, and dishwashers.

41

chapter 3.1

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

By 1935, over half of all

MOLAND OUTPUT

American families owned an automobile, paralleled by the purchase of household utilities such as washing machines, refrigerators, and dishwashers. This ‘Golden industry. Retail distribution emerged in the form of grocery store self-service, supermarkets and hypermarkets, and this subsequently led to giant firms and the distribution of standardized packaged products. (Bluestone, 1980)

By 1935, over half of all

ZOOM 01

American families owned an automobile, paralleled by the purchase of household utilities such as washing machines, refrigerators, and dishwashers. This ‘Golden industry. Retail distribution emerged in the form of grocery store self-service, supermarkets and hypermarkets, and this subsequently led to giant firms and the distribution of standardized packaged products. (Bluestone, 1980)

Plurel

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

42

ZOOM 02

43

chapter 3.1

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

Plurel

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

44

45

chapter 3.1

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

Plurel

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

46

47

chapter 3.1

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

In this cycle, it is evident that the American age of world power is fully established, while the entire European economy was eclipsing. Of the world’s top 25 cities (circa 1950), six were found in the US during this period, after which this number declined to merely two.

Plurel

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

48

IMPLICATIONS OF LAND USE PATTERNS IMPORTANCE OF ASSESSING LAND USE CHANGES Land use changes in rural-urban regions have intended or non-intended effects on various issues of sustainability, e.g. by creating or reducing urban green areas which affect quality of life, decreasing water surfaces influencing local groundwater availability, or altering monetary values of real estate by extending the road network (see chapter XXX for more details on impact assessment). Therefore, an assessment of land use changes with regard to such effects is useful to either evaluate changes in the past or prospective future changes when considering steering options (Schetke and Haase, 2008).

The latter is especially relevant for local and regional spatial planning which aims at steering land use changes in a rural-urban region. Spatial planning has the potential to encourage or restrict land use changes by assigning new areas for commercial or residential development, protecting nature conservation areas or restoring brownfields. Considering likely impacts of spatial planning is already part of the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA, see chapter XXX) established by the European Commission. The SEA is mandatory for all plans and programmes that are required by law and are prepared or adopted by national, regional or local authorities.

However, it is also very important for local and regional actors involved in land use planning and resource management to also consider such impacts for plans and programmes which are not covered by a SEA, and to assess land use changes of the past and future. Therefore, this section introduces how impact indicators are calculated for the Leipzig-Halle region, which land use changes in a rural-urban region can be assessed, which results were derived, and what the implications for steering options are. The recreation potential and land surface temperatures serve as an example.

ANALYSING EXEMPLARY INDICATORS Chapter XXX gives an overview over indicators which can be used for impact assessment of land use changes in rural-urban regions. The results of the application of two exemplary indicators of recreation potential and land surface temperatures will be given in this section.

Urban green spaces (UGS), urban flora and fauna provide a lot of recreation (plus aesthetic and educational) services to the residents (Yli-Pelkonen and Nielema, 2005; Troyer, 2002, Bolund and Hunhammer, 1999) and thus play an important role as determinant of life quality for citizens of urban regions. UGS hold space for recreation, regulate the micro-climate or reduce noise (Schell and Ulijazek, 1999; Comber et al., 2008, Jim and Chen, 2006; Handley et al., 2003) and thus represent a service for man by nature. Given that city regions are ‘people places’, attempts to preserve nature and ecosystems within city regions can only be successful if they meet the needs and the wishes of the residents (Tzoulas et al., 2007). In BOX 5 presents different measures to determine the demand-supply-relation of the recreation potential for an rural-urban region (Haase and Kabisch, in prep.).

49

chapter 3.1

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

Leipzig

Dagmar Haase, Nina Schwarz, Annette Bauer, Nadja Kabisch, Michael Strohbach, Iris Reuther, Bertram Schiffers, Dietmar Rรถhl, Bernd Augsburg, Ralf Thomas, Sigrun Kabisch and Ralf Seppelt

Plurel

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

50

51

chapter 3.1

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

In order to determine the demand for recreation space by the beneficiaries, the urban ecosystem service ‘recreation’ UESR is a function of the green space supply UGSS and the beneficiaries B:

. In PLUREL, three different measures to determine the recreation potential have been used. Urban green space (UGS) was taken as a proxy for recreation space:

BOX 5 Calculating impacts on recreation potential

1. UGS supply The green space supply was computed using a Geographic Information System (GIS)-selection procedure identifying and extracting all UGS land use types listed in section 2.1. The result is a layer of UGS for the city region for 1997 and 2003.

2. UGS supply demand per capita The per capita demand of UGS was determined as the UGS supply of a municipal local district divided by the number of people living there. To compare UGS supply and demand per capita we used 5m² per capita as minimum value because this the target was set up by the urban planning authority of Leipzig in 2003 (Leipzig, 2003).

3. UGS accessibility The GIS-based network analysis uses spatial network data – in our case the linear features of roads, tram lines and railway – in order to calculate distances between points or nodes of the network (as described in more detail in Comber et al., 2007). We applied the GIS-tool “multiple closest facilities” (ESRI, 2008) in order to determine the distances (in km) between population number and UGS. Centroids for population and residential use were computed as ‘starting points’ of the accessibility analysis. The polygon features of the UGS layer represent the ‘access points’. The tool facilitates the calculation of the distances between all starting and access points simultaneously. Input and output data were stored in a database. We used the difference accessibility (in km) per local district from 1997 to 2003 for analysing the change in accessibility. To evaluate the measured UGS accessibility for the city we used the two target values of 100 and 250 meters walking distance to UGS per capita according to a study by Handley et al. (2003). For comparison: the mean distance between two tram stations in Leipzig is about 150 meters.

Fresh and cool air for the population is a valuable service for the inhabitants which lessens impacts of the urban heat island on health and quality of life.

A cooler local climate is becoming even more important because of rising mean temperatures and more frequent heat waves due to climate change.

This is also valid for climate projections of the Leipzig-Halle region: They show that mean temperatures are going to rise about 2 degrees within the next 50 years, and extreme heat and drought events are likely to increase (Saxon Ministry for Environment and Agriculture, 2006). Emissivity of land surfaces serves as indicator for local climate regulation as urban ecosystem service (Bolund & Hunhammar, 1999; Pauleit et al., 2005; Tratalos et al., 2007, Whitford et al., 2001): low emissivity indicates lower temperatures and vice versa. Accordingly, emissivities for land surfaces for the LeipzigHalle region were calculated, using the method summarised in BOX 6.

Plurel

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

52

BOX 6 Calculating impacts on emissivity of land surfaces

For linking emissivity of land surface to land use/cover, a case-study specific lookup table was created. Freely available Landsat 7 ETM+ data (band 6.1, spatial resolution of 60x60m) was used as a basis for this purpose.

The scene was collected on 20.08.2002 at approximately 10:30am. In a Geographic Information System (GIS), the satellite image of emissivity was blended with CORINE land cover data for the region, resulting in a table with mean land surface emissivity values for each land use/cover.

The following index value was created for each land use i to show differences in thermal emissions between land uses:

The following table is an excerpt of the resulting lookup table: LABEL

INDEX

Continuous urban fabric

8

Discontinuous urban fabric

5

Industrial or commercial units

6

Water bodies

-2

…

…

Further information on this methodology and its application to the Leipzig-Halle case study can be found in Schwarz et al. (in prep.).

M1 Results of land use change modelling for selected land use types (Haase and Petrov, 2009); BAU = Business as usual

53

IDENTIFYING RELEVANT LAND USE CHANGES Several land use changes can be assessed using these indicators: (1) Past land use changes can be analysed regarding their implications for recreation and local climate. For this purpose, detection of historical land use changes is needed, for instance the difference between CORINE land use/land cover 1990 and 2000 (see results in section XXX). (2) Furthermore, scenarios of future land use change can be assessed, using results of modelling excercises as input. MOLAND modelling results can be used for this goal (see chapter XXX for the model and chapter XXX for results regarding Leipzig-Halle). (3) Finally, land use change as implied by spatial planning can be assessed with this kind of methodology. In this case, the assessment reveals what the implications of a given strategy would be if it was fully implemented. As an example, the green corridors of the regional plan for Western Saxony (so-called “Grüne Korridore”) were chosen. The aim of these corridors is to protect and establish green belts around the city of Leipzig. BOX 7 summarises how this plan was used to create scenarios of future land use. chapter 3.1

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

36

BOX 7 Transfer of a strategy into land use

20

M1 Results of land use change modelling for selected land use types (Haase and Petrov, 2009); BAU = Business as usual

In order to calculate its (potential) impacts, the regional development plan including green corridors had to be converted into a spatially explicit land use data set. It bases on the current land use in the case study region represented by CORINE land cover for the year 2000. The GIS-procedure to create the land use transition map for green corridors converted the existing land uses within the area of the plan to urban green areas. The reason for this is the intended creation of green areas. The current land use map with CORINE land use/cover was then intersected with the planning policy map.

The transition rule assumes a complete land conversion (except for water surfaces) - which is a rather hypothetical state. However, as it is our primary aim to present a methodology to assess (possibly un-)intended impacts of such a policy this assumption can be made.

A scenario workshop to evaluate spatial planning and governance – does that make sense? Yes, so the joint conclusion of both the participating stakeholders and the organising team of a workshop in Leipzig in February 2009. Under diverging assumptions of demographic and economic growth and decline, local and regional actors visulised future land use developments. This scenario/planning

ASSESSING RECREATION POTENTIAL AND LOCAL CLIMATE The status of recreation and local climate for CORINE land cover/use 2000 is depicted in FIGURE 12. Regarding recreation, FIGURE 9 shows that the demand on UGS in the urban centres of Leipzig and Halle is highest due to high population densities. But not only in the core cities, also in the peri-urban areas of post-socialist urban sprawl (northeast of Leipzig, axis between Leipzig and Halle as well as west of Halle) we find comparatively lower per capita values of UGS. In the peripheral parts of the rural-urban region the amount of UGS increases. Compared to the per capita amount, the accessibility of UGS is best in the core cities since there many residents reach larger park or forest areas within a short (walking) distance than in the peri-urban or rural areas. Changes in the recreation potential from 1990 to 2000 using CORINE land cover data were found in so far that the per capita values in the peri-urban ring around Leipzig and the axis between Leipzig and Halle decreased as the number of people dramatically increased.

Local climate is most positively influenced by open water surfaces (FIGURE 12). Forests and green urban areas have a cooling effect, while sealed surfaces show high land surface emissivity. Regarding changes between 1990 and 2000, the analysis showed that in some parts of the case study region, local climate showed an inreace in temperature because of urban sprawl and the creation of new sealed surfaces. However, in other parts of the region, local climate cooled down in some peri-urban and rural areas due to the creation of new lakes out of former open-pit mining. In total, this lead to a reduction of land surface emissivity for the whole region between 1990 to 2000.

Plurel

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

54

FIGURE 12 Current status of recreation potential and land surface emissivity (based upon CORINE land cover 2000)

55

chapter 3.1

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

The “Hypertech� MOLAND scenario was used as input for assessing future land use changes. The scenario results of FIGURE 4 were assessed for the two indicators; the results are depicted in FIGURE 13. Regarding recreation, changes can be detected related to 2000 in terms of an decrease of the recreation potential for all three measures: the total supply of UGS declines due to an increase of sealed and built surfaces for residential and commercial use. Similarly, the per capita values of UGS decrease, mainly in the peri-urban area where most of the new commercial land and urban fabric will be allocated. In the city centres the situation is stable. The south of Leipzig (former mining area) and the axis between Leipzig and Halle are the most affected by a decrease of recreation potential. The high accessibility of UGS in the core cities will not be negatively affected, but that of the peri-urban areas very strongly.

Local climate is affected negatively from 2000 to 2025: Because of increasing area of discontinuous and continuous urban fabric, industrial and commercial areas as well as enlargement of the airport, hot sealed surfaces are expanded in this scenario. This leads to an overall increase of land surface emissivity which is even higher than in 1990.

Installing green corridors has major implications for both recreation potential and local climate (see FIGURE 14). The upper map shows that the recreation potential is enhanced compared to the land use displayed by CORINE land cover 2000. In particular the western, southwestern but also the northwestern and southeastern peripheries of the city of Leipzig are positively affected in terms of green space per capita. Inner-urban districts without urban green spaces in 2000 will gain a considerable amount of recreation area (per capita) which is extremely important since these districts belong to the most densely populated ones. As the second map shows, local climate is strongly cooled down due to large conversions of land into forest while water surfaces remain water even if they are part of the green corridors.

20

M1 Results of land use change modelling for selected land use types (Haase and Petrov, 2009); BAU = Business as usual

Plurel

A scenario workshop to evaluate spatial planning and governance – does that make sense? Yes, so the joint conclusion of both the participating stakeholders and the organising team of a workshop in Leipzig in February 2009. Under diverging assumptions of demographic and economic growth and decline, local and regional actors visulised future land use developments. This scenario/planning game was played for three distinct scenarios (BOX 3; FIGURE 10).

Results include possible regional focal points of growth and shrinkage as well as their implications and an assessment of spatial planning and governance. Practitioners emphasised the potential contribution of such workshops to more communication between stakeholders from the Leipzig-Halle region. All three groups concluded that the cities of Leipzig and Halle will be able to retain their central functions. A further commonality between all is the suggestion of a revision of regional planning and governance, i.e. a joint forum for regional planning and the introduction of a development plan for the metropolitan area.

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

56

FIGURE 13

2025 EXTREME GROWTH ‘HYPERTECH’

Recreation potential and land surface emissivity in Hypertech scenario

2025 EXTREME GROWTH ‘HYPERTECH’

57

chapter 3.1

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

FIGURE 13

IMPLEMENTED GREEN CORRIDORS

Recreation potential and land surface emissivity in Hypertech scenario

IMPLEMENTED GREEN CORRIDORS

Plurel

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

58

SUGGESTIONS FOR BETTER PRACTICE LESSONS LEARNT The main question to be tackled for the Leipzig-Halle case study was: What will be the future land use changes and their socioenvironmental impacts in an rural-urban region faced with parallel population growth and shrinkage and, consequently, how to steer future land development in both the urban and peri-urban areas?

Using the results of the MOLAND model we found an increasing land consumption in the case study region regardless a stagnation or decline of population in specific areas of the region. Valuable open land, e.g. wetlands, and arable land are in danger to be transferred into residential and commercial land or transport area which will develop expansively. In particular in the case of an increase in GDP but no planning control we will find a scattered and segregated development with peri-urban growth of low-density residential land simultaneous with a decline of the multi-storey built housing estates in the city centres. Large brownfields are the consequence.

Using the method of a joint stakeholder-scientist planning game we succeeded in contributing to the dialogue between research and praxis regarding spatial and land use development in the rural-urban region of Leipzig-Halle. The planning game stimulated the discussion about both the negative and positive impacts and the steering of the future land development.

What concerns these environmental and quality of life impacts, the modelled peri-urban land take leads to a decrease of the recreation potential in the entire case study region. In accordance to that, the cooling potential in the new residential areas declines. In case of inner-urban shrinkage/perforation of the built environment, the cooling potential however, increases.

Compared to the MOLAND model results, another land use change model – that is the visualisation of a specific planning strategy of green corridors – shows a somewhat different impact: here, recreation potentials in the peri-urban areas as well as in the densily populated city centre of Leipzig considerably increase and exceed the per capita minimum value of available green space. This example shows that it is decisive to analyse both different land use steering strategies and the governance structures behind to find out what socio-environmental effects planning will/could have in an rural-urban region. We could show for the Leipzig-Halle case study that there are different planning strategies available which are supposed to deal with land use change under growth and/or shrinkage and, what is more, that these strategies have different side-effects as the results of the impact assessment proofed.

59

chapter 3.1

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

TAKE HOME MESSAGES 1 Population decline – shrinkage as it is understood in PLUREL – does not automatically lead to a reduction of land consumption.

2 A long-term sustainable residential development in both the urban and peri-urban part of a the case study region of Leipzig-Halle demands the expansion of regional cooperation.

3 The models and scenarios developed within PLUREL help with the early recognition and estimation of land use potential and risks.

4 The future of the region can only be insured through shared policies and planing.

5 New media and formats such as the planning game facilitate the region’s process of coming together.

Plurel

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

60

Leipzig

Dagmar Haase, Nina Schwarz, Annette Bauer, Nadja Kabisch, Michael Strohbach, Iris Reuther, Bertram Schiffers, Dietmar Rรถhl, Bernd Augsburg, Ralf Thomas, Sigrun Kabisch and Ralf Seppelt

61

chapter 3.1

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

REFERENCES

Bauer, A., Haase, D., Walde, A. 2008.

assessing the resource and implementing

Analysis of regional spatial planning and

local standards for provision. Available at

decision making strategies and their impact

http://www.english-nature.org.uk/pubs/

on land use in the urban fringe. Deliverable

publication/PDF/Accessgreenspace.pdf

D3.3.6 Leipzig (unpublished internal

http://webhelp.esri.com/arcgisdesktop/9.2/

manuscript at www.plurel.net).

index.cfm?TopicName=Finding_the_

Bolund, P., Hunhammar, S., 1999.

closest_facility

Ecosystem services in urban areas.

Jim, C.Y., Chen, W.Y., 2006. Recreation-

Ecological Economics, 29(2), 293-301.

amenity use and contingent valuation of

Comber, A., Brunsdon, C., Green,

urban green spaces in Guanzhou, China.

E., 2008. Using a GIS-based network

Landscape and Urban Planning75, 81-96.

analysis to determine urban green space

Loibl, W., Köstl, M. 2008. Report on a

accessibility for different ethnic and

methodology to delineate RUR sub-regions.

religious groups. Landscape and Urban

Deliverable D 2.1.4. (unpublished internal

Planning, 86, 103-114.

manuscript at www.plurel.net).

Comber, A., Brunsdon, C., Green,

Nuissl, H., Rink, D. 2005, The ‚production’

E., 2008. Using a GIS-based network

of urban sprawl in eastern Germany

analysis to determine urban green space

as a phenomenon of post-socialist

accessibility for different ethnic and

transformation, Cities, Vol. 22, No.2, pp.

religious groups. Landscape and Urban

123-134

Planning, 86, 103-114.

Pauleit, S., Ennos, R., Golding, Y., 2005.

Kabisch, S., Steinführer, A., Haase, A.,

Modeling the environmental impacts of

Peter, A., Maase, A. 2009. Demographic

urban land use and land cover change – a

Change & Housing in European Cities.

study in Merseyside, UK. Landscape Urban

Eurocities Report, Brussels.

Plan 71 (2-4), 295-310.

ESRI, 2008. Multiple Closest Facilities.

Saxon Ministry for Environment and

Haase, D., Kabisch, N. in prep. Ecosystem

Agriculture, 2006

service or ecosystem function? Defining

Schell, L.M., Ulijazek, S.J. 1999.

the ‘recreation service’ based on its

Urbanism, Health and Human Biology

demand-supply-relation (unpublished

in Industrialised Countries. Cambridge

manuscript).

University Press, Cambridge.

Haase, D. 2009. Effects of urbanisation on

Schetke, S., Haase, D. 2008. Multi-criteria

the water balance – a long-term trajectory.

assessment of socio-environmental

Environment Impact Assessment Review

aspects in shrinking cities. Experiences

29, 211-219.

from Eastern Germany. Environmental

Haase, D., Nuissl, H., 2007. Does urban

Impact Assessment Review 28, 483-503.

sprawl drive changes in the water balance

Schwarz, N., Bauer, A:, Haase, D., in prep.

and policy? The case of Leipzig (Germany)

Assessing climate impacts of local and

1870-2003. Landscape and Urban Planning

regional planning policies - Quantification of

80, 1-13.

impacts for Leipzig (Germany) (unpublished

Haase, D., Schwarz, N. 2008. Land use

manuscript).

changes in European RUR. A compilation

Freistaat Sachsen, Staatsministerium

of land use transitions types and land use

des Innern (2004): Raumordnung und

changes in rural-urban regions of Europe.

Landesentwicklung in Sachsen, Dresden.

Milestone Report M4.3.1 (unpublished

Tratalos, J., Fuller, R.A., Warren, P.H.,

internal manuscript at www.plurel.net).

Davies, R.G., Gaston, K.J., 2007. Urban

Handley, J., Pauleit, S., Slinn, P., Lindley,

form, biodiversity potential and ecosystem

S., Baker, M., Barber, A., Jones, C., 2003.

services. Landscape and Urban Planning

Providing accessible natural green space in

83, 308-317.

towns and cities: a practical guide to

Plurel

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

62

Troyer, M.E., 2002. A spatial approach for

Nadja Kabisch, Helmholtz Centre

integrating and analysing indicators of

for Environmental Research – UFZ,

ecological and human condition. Ecological

Department of Computational Landscape

Indicators 2, 211-220

Ecology, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig,

Tzoulas, K., Korpela, K., Venn, S., Yli-

Germany; Email: nadja.kabisch@ufz.de

Pelkonen, V., Kazmierczak, A., Niemela,

Dietmar Röhl, Landesdirektion Leipzig,

J., James, P., 2007. Promoting ecosystem

Braustraße 2, D-04107 Leipzig, Germany,

and human health in urban areas using

Email: Dietmar.Roehl@ldl.sachsen.de

Green Infrastructure: A literature review.

Bernd Augsburg, Saxon State Chancellery,

Landscape and Urban Planning 81, 167-178

Referat 35, Grundsatzfragen, Strategische

Whitford, V., Ennos, A. R., Handley, J. F.

Planung, Demografie, Archivstraße 1,

(2001). ”City form and natural process” –

D-01097 Dresden, D-01095 Dresden,

indicators for the ecological performance

Germany,

of urban areas and their application to

Email: Bernd.Augsburg@sk.sachsen.de

Merseyside, UK. Landscape and Urban

Ralf Thomas, City of Leipzig, Department

Planning 57(2), 91-103.

of Urban Planning, D-04092 Leipzig, Neues

Yli-Pelkonen, V., Nielema, J., 2005.

Rathaus Martin-Luther-Ring 4-6, D-04109

Linking ecological and and social systems

Leipzig, Germany,

in cities: urban planning in Finland as a

Email: ralf.thomas@leipzig.de

case. Biodiversity and Conservation 14,

Ralf Seppelt, Helmholtz Centre

1947-1967.

for Environmental Research – UFZ, Department of Computational Landscape

AUTHOR DETAILS

Ecology, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig,

Dagmar Haase, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Department of Computational Landscape Ecology, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany; Email: dagmar.haase@ufz.de Nina Schwarz, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ,

Germany; Email: ralf.seppelt@ufz.de Sigrun Kabisch, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Department of Urban and Environmental Sociology, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany; Email: sigrun.kabisch@ufz.de

Department of Computational Landscape Ecology, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany; Email: nina.schwarze@ufz.de Annette Bauer, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Department of Computational Landscape Ecology, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany; Email: annette.bauer@ufz.de Iris Reuther, Agency for Urban Projects, Gottschedstrasse 12, D-04109 Leipzig, Germany, Email: mail@urbaneprojekte.de Bertram Schiffers, stadt : plan : dialog, Dittrichring 17, D-04109 Leipzig, Germany, Email: schiffers@stadtplandialog.de Michael Strohbach, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Department of Computational Landscape Ecology, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany; Email: michael.strohbach@ufz.de

63

chapter 3.1

Leipzig-Halle

Plurel

The PLUREL project has developed new strategies and planning and forecasting tools that are essential for developing sustainable rural-urban land use relationships. These strategies and tools, generic in nature, support the analysis of urbanisation trends in the EU so that ways can be identified of both supporting this process and mitigating its negative impacts. In this way the PLUREL tools help improve the quality of life of the population living in cities as well as in the periurban and rural surroundings. PLUREL evaluates costs for the implementation of these strategies, and helps stakeholders to better understand, plan and forecast the interactions between urban, peri-urban and rural areas.

Plurel

Leipzig-Halle

chapter 3.1

2