Tokyo Future Scenario 2035 Four Scenarios and Urban Strategy Proposal
Stormy
Rainy
Cloudy
Blue Sky
Institute for Urban Strategies
THE MORI MEMORIAL FOUNDATION 一 般 財 団 法 人 森 記 念 財 団
都 市 戦 略 研 究 所
Tokyo Future Scenario 2035
About the publication of this report This report is a compilation of the results collected by the Tokyo Future Scenario 2035 project, conducted by The Mori Memorial Foundation. In addition to our ongoing urban engineering studies, The Mori Memorial Foundation has conducted “urban strategy research” for the past three years, focusing on socioeconomic perspectives. The publication of our ‘Global Power City Index’, which evaluates the major cities of the world from a comprehensive point of view, is representative of this research. These rankings, which depict the strengths of each city and the challenges they face, have been utilized widely around the world in recent years. Based on the findings of that index, we have applied a ‘scenario analysis’ method to examine Tokyo’s future place among the cities of the world.
竹中 平蔵 Heizo Takenaka Professor at Keio University and the Director of the Global Security Research Institute Director of The Mori Memorial Foundation Chairman of the Institute for Urban Strategies, The Mori Memorial Foundation
The global environment and that which envelops Japan continues to undergo dramatic change, a change that will only accelerate in the future. As a consequence, it is not easy to predict the factors that will have an impact upon the city of Tokyo. To counter this, in this study we have therefore defined certain Key Driving Forces (KDFs). These KDFs refer to powers that cannot be predicted with certainty, but do have significant effects on the city. In defining the future of Tokyo and as part of our efforts to examine the hard-to-predict KDFs, we have, over the past year and a half, collected a wide variety of ideas from interviews with over 30 specialists. As a result, four future scenarios for Tokyo have emerged and we have identified the KDFs of ‘deregulation and openness’, ‘promotion of competition’, ‘selection and concentration’ and ‘paradigm shift’. This report is a summary of such future scenarios for Tokyo and the urban strategies to address them. It is our wish that together with the ‘Global Power City Index’, this report will be utilized by all interested parties and facilitate policy discussion for the future good of Tokyo.
May, 2011 Heizo Takenaka
Contents Tokyo Future Scenarios
1
Current Tokyo
12
Pre-step
18
Stormy Scenario
20
Strategies to pass KDF 1
26
Rainy Scenario
28
Strategies to pass KDF 2
34
Cloudy Scenario
36
Strategies to pass KDF 3
42
Blue Sky Scenario
44
Urban Strategies
50
Appendix
52
Tokyo Future Scenarios
Tokyo Future Scenarios Issues facing Tokyo
Limitations to future outlooks based on conventional thinking
Scenario
Scenario planning Multiple scenario-based depiction of Tokyo’s future
bottom-up trend scenario
ideal scenario
Blue Sky
top-down trend scenario
Scenario
pessimistic scenario
Cloudy
Scenario
Scenario Planning
Chaotic international relations
Rainy
Our method for devising urban strategies utilizes ‘Scenario planning’ – an approach that differs from conventional trend-based future city projections. We plan to use scenarios to formulate policies and procedures in order to realize the image of the city that Tokyo should aim to become, as well as try and discover the path to accomplishing it.
Unprecedented economic crises Intensifying environmental and energy problems
Stormy
What are the essential requirements needed by Tokyo to maintain enough global competitiveness and magnetism in the future as one of the world’s leading cities? What issues does it now face? We need to shed light on these questions and formulate urban strategies for the future.
Uncertain socioeconomic situation
Scenario
The biggest challenge facing Tokyo is how to enhance its comprehensive strength and appeal in the midst of globally intensifying competition among cities. However, in the face of recent unprecedented economic crises, intensifying environmental and energy problems and chaotic international relations, the socioeconomic circumstances and environments enveloping cities are becoming increasingly uncertain. As a result, the concept of an ideal city can no longer be defined through conventional ways of thinking. Under such circumstances, it is more appropriate to form a future city image based upon new values and methods free from the constraints of traditional thinking.
Creation of city appeal to attract people from all over the world
Current Tokyo
Project Objective
Globally intensifying competition between cities
Usually, when formulating a company management strategy or future plans for local governments or cities, a strategy is devised in anticipation of the most likely future scenario based on past experience or trend forecasts. In ‘Scenario planning’ however, we recognize that ‘it is impossible to predict the future with certainty,’ therefore our approach is to create multiple future scenarios and describe strategies in accordance with those scenarios. This is the first time in Japan that scenario planning will be applied to urban strategies.
Urban Strategies
‘Scenario planning’ is a strategy formulation technique that ensures proper decision- making is carried out under an environment of high uncertainty by making assumptions of multiple future scenarios that might occur.
Urban Strategies Realization of city image Tokyo aims to become Avoidance of negative scenarios and formulation of urban strategies to realize positive scenarios 1
Tokyo Future Scenarios Current Tokyo Scenario
Stormy
Rainy
Scenario
Scenario
Cloudy
Scenario
Blue Sky Urban Strategies
Stormy
Key Driving Force: Driving forces of strong impact and high uncertainty that will lead to multiple scenarios.
Scenario
25 years
Rainy
Scenario
pessimistic scenario
fail
Cloudy
Scenario
top-down-trend scenario
fail
bottom-up-trend scenario
pass
2
Blue Sky
pass fail
Tokyo 2010
Scenario
pass
ideal scenario
t a r t S
i g e
es
Tokyo Future Scenarios
Establishing a Target City Image and Identifying KDFs
Current Tokyo
First of all, we portray an image of the city that Tokyo aims to become in the future. We then draw up a roadmap that leads us to that future model and identify the KDFs that will heavily influence that process. KDFs are uncertain and highly influential factors and whether they have a positive or negative effect is determined at the branch point of each scenario.
Stormy
Scenario
Depicting the Future of the Greater Tokyo Area 25 Years From Now
Scenario
Rainy
In this project, we refer to ‘Tokyo’ as ‘the greater Tokyo area,’ which is defined as an approximate 60 km radius that extends beyond the administrative region but where integrated economic management is carried out. Within this range, we analyze the problems and possibilities of the various functions that embrace the city, such as economy, industry, space, environment, life and society. In addition, we project each scenario with an eye on what Tokyo will be like 25 years from now when the population is expected to decline in East Asia – an area that greatly affects Japan’s economy. By painting a picture of what Tokyo will be like in 2035, at a time when Japanese people currently in their twenties are approaching their prime working years, we can clarify what issues the current working generation will need to address in preparation for the future.
Cloudy
Scenario
Blue Sky
Greater Tokyo Area
Urban Strategies
By creating multiple scenarios in response to the aforementioned city functions, we can shed light on urban strategies that need to be implemented, depending on KDFs, in order to realize Tokyo’s future model image.
Scenario
Objective Cities, Towns and Villages
Devising Urban Strategies for Tokyo
3
Tokyo Future Scenarios
Steering Committee
Chairperson Heizo Takenaka Professor Keio University
Main Role: Supervision of entire process
Chairman Institute for Urban Strategies The Mori Memorial Foundation
Vice Chairperson Hiroo Ichikawa Dean / Professor
Current Tokyo
Meiji University Executive Director The Mori Memorial Foundation
Economy
Diplomatic Shinichi Kitaoka
Robert Alan Feldman
Space & Culture
Environment
Hiroo Ichikawa
Professor,
Professor,
Morgan Stanley Japan Securities Co., Ltd.
Department of Urban Engineering, The University of Tokyo
Graduate School of Information Science & Technology, The University of Tokyo
Scenario
Stormy
Managing Director,
National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)
Rainy
Scenario
Working Group
Scenario
Cloudy
Main Role: Providing and revising Driving forces and Draft scenario
Scenario
Blue Sky
Expertise Partners
Tokyo Future Scenario
Leader
Support Members
Hiroo Ichikawa
Opinions Mizuho Information & Research Institute, Inc.
Interviewing Experts Insight is gained by gathering the ideas and opinions of domestic and international experts in a variety of fields, who have extensive knowledge of not only Japan, but international locations as well, and who can accurately project the future of urban centers. Opinions are compiled through interviews and expert discussions. Above all, in our increasingly uncertain present day society, we aim to formulate innovative and convincing future scenarios and urban strategies based on the deep insight of these experts without fixating solely on conventional trends and analyses.
Main Role: Making comments on Driving forces and Draft scenario Internationally Renown Academics in four fields category
Members Institute for Urban Strategies The Mori Memorial Foundation
Urban Strategies
Michitaka Hirose
Professor,
Interview
4
Technology
Keisuke Hanaki
Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
List of Experts Charles D. Lake II. Gerald L. Curtis Heizo Takenaka Hideo Miyahara Hiroko Akiyama Hiroo Ichikawa Hiroshi Ota Ichiro Ozawa Isao Karube
Jiang Kejun Kashiwa Sato Keisuke Hanaki Keita Nishiyama Koichi Kitazawa Makoto Nagao Michitaka Hirose Muhammad Monte Cassim
(Blue denotes steering committee members) Ozonfa Robert Alan Feldman Saskia Sassen Satoru Osugi Shigeki Sakaki Shinichi Kitaoka Syuzo Nishioka Takashi Shiraishi Takayuki Kishii
Takemochi Ishii Takuya Tsuji Tatsuo Hatta Toshiyuki Kanai Yasushi Akashi Yasushi Asami Yoshiharu Fukuoka Yuko Harayama Yusaku Imamura
Tokyo Future Scenarios
Competition among global cities
TOKYO 2035 ?
Current Tokyo
Future Model City
KDF
Environmental Symbiosis
International Network
fail
Culture and Values International Exchange Community Security and Safety Social System
Blue Sky
Scenario
Life& Society
Cloudy
Earthquake Countermeasures
Scenario
Space& Environment
pass
Scenario
25 years
Urban Structure Infrastructure
Rainy
TOKYO 2010
Stormy
Current Tokyo
Scenario
Economy& Industry
Economic Growth Industrial Structure Corporations Human Resources Markets
Urban Strategies
Future Failed City 5
Tokyo Future Scenarios
+++ ++ +++
++
Pre-step
Rainy
Scenario
Scenario
Stormy
A broad array of policies and initiatives has been rolled out in the past 10 years. The following is a list of the representative measures implemented for the functions of economy and industry, space and environment, and life and society. Some were highly effective, some had limited effects, while others ended up being a waste of taxpayer’s money. Due to the fact that assessments of whether or not a policy was successful will differ depending on the beneficiary, we have conducted our evaluation from the perspective of strengthening Tokyo’s global competitiveness.
Economy& Industry
Current Tokyo
++
+ + +
Simplification of investment via SPCs for securitization of real estate Expectation of further economic revitalization by way of increased investment opportunities
Bad debt settlement and financial deregulation Prevented bankruptcy of financial institutions, but rejuvenation of business activity through proper investment and lending still an issue
Privatization of government corporations, such as postal service Expectation of increased participation opportunities through additional privatization schemes
Measures taken such as reforming independent administrative agencies and public corporations Can measures aimed at increased transparency and privatization be implemented?
Incorporation of national universities Has a merit-based system and the principles of competition infiltrated university research activities?
Correction of gap between regular and temporary employees Major hurdles still prevent realization
Assistance provided to SMEs, such as increased lending Can fundamental assistance be provided, for example, with favorable tax treatment?
Reduction of corporate tax rate Limited effect as tax rate remains at a globally high level even after 5% reduction.
+++ Highly effective
-
Almost no effect
++
Somewhat effective
--
No effect
+
Limited effect
---
Opposite effect
Life& Society
Scenario
Blue Sky
Scenario
Cloudy
Tokyo 2010
-----
Urban Strategies
++ -+ 18
Supplementary income payments Failed to create economic growth as two trillion yen disappeared without a trace
Subsidy for regional revitalization Effects of revitalization of regional areas yet to be seen
Elimination of kindergarten waiting lists through enhancement of child-care centers Will this lead to fundamental measures to solve the problem of a declining birthrate?
Child allowance Strong possibility of being terminated as social security payment. Can it work as a drastic measure to reverse the declining birthrate?
Free high school tuition Is there anyone taking advantage of this system for profit?
++ +++ +++
Establishment of special zones for structural reform
Tokyo Future Scenarios
+++
Can Tokyo’s appeal be increased beyond conventional frameworks?
‘NO’ to relocation of Japan’s capital Can the capital’s functions be streamlined and made more compact all the while ensuring its international status as a capital city?
Internationalization of Haneda Airport Can it catch up to rival cities in aiming to become an international hub airport?
Increased recycling Can social momentum and additional systematization be increased?
Current Tokyo
Cool Biz campaign
+++ By setting office air conditioner temperatures higher, the campaign not only saved energy, but +++ ++
Privatization of public highway corporations Services have gradually improved, but lowering tolls and repaying debts need to be addressed
Tax reduction for eco-friendly cars Effective in terms of consumption and environmental measures, but can it be sustained?
Eco-point system for home appliances Effective in terms of consumption and environmental measures, but can it be sustained?
Stormy
++
Can measures be formulated to achieve concrete effects as greater burdens are placed on companies?
Scenario
++
Cap-and-trade scheme and restrictions on diesel
Space& Environment
contributed to increased environmental awareness
Rainy
Scenario
Deregulation Openness
Cloudy
Scenario
l fai
+
Can its versatility be expanded, for example, for use outside of local governments?
Social Insurance Agency reform Transition to the Japan Pension Service was inevitable
Trinity Reform package and expansion in autonomy Can regional independence and resident services be improved instead of just formal decentralization and transference of financial resources?
Budgetary review of government programs Has it simply been a pretense? Can it address the most important issues and completely eliminate vested interests?
Tokyo 2035
Stormy Scenario...
19
Urban Strategies
+
Blue Sky
+
Basic resident registration
Scenario
+
Members of Tokyo Future Scenario 2035 Chairman
Illustrators for the future urban images
Heizo Takenaka
Souhei Imamura
Professor at Keio University Chairman of the Institute for Urban Strategies, The Mori Memorial Foundation
Steering Committee members Hiroo Ichikawa
Professor and Dean of the Professional Graduate School of Governance Studies, Meiji University Executive Director of the Institute for Urban Strategies, The Mori Memorial Foundation
Shinichi Kitaoka
Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)
Robert Alan Feldman
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley Japan Securities Co., Ltd.
Keisuke Hanaki
Sotaro Yamamoto
Atelier Imamu Ltd.
Atelier Sotaro Yamamoto
Report Designer Rina Nagami Atelier HaNuel
Editors Chiharu Hirota
Senior Researcher at the Institute for Urban Strategies, The Mori Memorial Foundation
Tim Van Puyenbroeck
Staff at The Mori Memorial Foundation
Professor, Department of Urban Engineering , The University of Tokyo
Michitaka Hirose
Professor, Graduate School of Information Science & Technology, The University of Tokyo
Working Group Hiroo Ichikawa
Professor and Dean of the Professional Graduate School of Governance Studies, Meiji University Executive Director of the Institute for Urban Strategies, The Mori Memorial Foundation
Shingo Yamashita
Executive Managing Director of The Mori Memorial Foundation
Tokyo Future Scenario 2035 Four Scenarios and Urban Strategy Proposal Published on June 1, 2013 Compilation
Institute for Urban Strategies, The Mori Memorial Foundation
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