The Mediterranean Sphere: Portugal, Spain, Italy, and Vatican City

HUNGARY Though Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s turn to authoritarianism after his reelection

in 2010 caused relations between the U.S. and Hungary to sour, throughout Trump’s tenure,

relations between the two countries improved. During his 2016 campaign, Orbán became the first and only European leader to endorse Trump’s candidacy, and the two have supported one another

and their similar agendas since.26

Orbán was a vocal and ardent supporter of Trump throughout the 2020 campaign,

broadcasting expectations of a Trump win with no alternative consideration.27 Trump was a

valuable ally to Orbán as many of Hungary’s European neighbors have criticized democratic

backsliding and government corruption in the country. Biden has echoed wider European disapproval of Orbán and his far-right Fidesz party. In response, Orbán has called out the “moral

imperialism” of the U.S. Democrats, suggesting that future U.S. attention to Hungary may be met with hostility.28

Biden’s victory has led commentators in Hungary to predict that relations between the U.S. and Hungary will decline.29 The head of Orbán’s Prime Ministerial office, Gergely Gulyás,

said he was “pessimistic,” though he hoped that the foreign policy stances of the new Democratled government “would be better than the last one,” referencing President Barack Obama’s administration.30 While there is hope Biden will restore the liberal order Obama was known for fostering, others anticipate leaders like Orbán will seek the support of sympathetic illiberal

leaders such as President Xi Jinping of China or Russia’s President Vladimir Putin.31

The countries along the southwestern borders of Europe are characterized by stagnating

economies hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic, against a backdrop of relatively recent and

painful memories of authoritarianism. While most European states hope to see the United States resume its role as a reliable ally under President Biden, in the Mediterranean sphere other world leaders have moved to occupy the vacuum created by the absence of reliable

American leadership.

PORTUGAL Portugal is often overlooked in broader narratives about the relationship between the

United States and Europe due to its lack of influence and small geographic and economic size relative to its neighbors.32 However, it is arguable that countries such as Portugal are most in

need European stability and a prosperous relationship with the U.S. As a co-founder of NATO,

the Atlantic nation has a strong relationship with the United States, centered on bilateral military

and economic relations. Portugal has relied heavily on the United States in their continued

economic recovery from the 2008 global financial crisis. Professor Lívia Franco, a senior researcher at the Institute for Political Studies at the

Catholic University of Portugal (IEP-UCP), emphasized the role of Portugal as a small nation within NATO and the importance of multilateral relations with both the EU and the U.S. As a

nation with less military strength, Portugal is protected mainly by the United States. According

to Franco, this aspect of their relationship means that Portugal depends on U.S. openness for the

support of the international community.33 Portugal’s Prime Minister António Costa assumed the

rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union from Germany’s Chancellor Angela

Merkel in January 2021, heightening the importance of U.S.-EU relations for Portugal. Portuguese officials and citizens alike expressed dissatisfaction with the Trump administration’s isolationist policies and, as the election drew closer, feared for America’s

democratic institutions.34 Public opinion polls and government statements reflected an overwhelmingly positive response to Biden’s victory in the election.35 While many in Portugal welcomed the change in administration, Professor André Azevedo Alves noted that while the

Trump administration outwardly promoted an “America First” foreign policy perspective, many relationships with European countries remained unchanged.36 Although enhanced communication

is certainly a victory, aside from rhetoric there may be little tangible change or improvement in

Portuguese-American relations.

SPAIN

Spain’s hope for improved relations with the United States under the Biden administration is tempered by concerns regarding their own far-right party and the lasting effects

of right-wing populism across Europe. Having been under the dictatorship of Francisco Franco

for the greater part of the 20th century, Spain was not viewed by Americans as an ally until the

1990s, and diplomatic relations between the two countries remain a relatively new phenomenon.

Over this period, Spanish public opinion of the United States has varied—seemingly correlating

with Spaniards’ confidence, or lack thereof, in the American executive. In 2018, a mere 7% of Spaniards expressed confidence in Trump, and only 42% viewed the U.S. favorably. These numbers pale in comparison to the 75% of Spaniards who

expressed confidence in Obama in 2016, with U.S. favorability sitting at 59% in the same year.37 Perhaps even more compelling is that only 7% of Spaniards anticipated the U.S. election

to be “completely free and fair.”38 This unfavorable view of the United States stems not only

from distaste for Trump but from the negative effect of sanctions and the trade war he waged

with Europe. Tariffs placed on the European Union cost the Spanish economy roughly €765 million.39 Though it is unclear whether he will reverse the tariffs, Biden’s election prompted an optimism that seems to have less to do with Biden himself and more to do with the “sensation of generalized relief” that Trump was leaving office.40

Early congratulatory statements by politicians from across Spain’s political ranks,

including Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, reflected a hope for warmer transatlantic relations and greater commitment to multilateralism under the new administration.41 Absent, however, from

these well-wishers was Spain’s far-right Vox party. Vox leader Santiago Abascal claimed that

Trump had won, echoing charges of election fraud and media manipulation.42 Indeed, Trump’s

absence from the U.S. presidency ushers in a new era of uncertainty for Europe’s far right. The

extent to which these parties relied on Trump’s leadership and influence and their ability to maintain political influence in Europe will be revealed in the months and years ahead.

Despite the majority expressing renewed warmth toward the incoming American

president, Spaniards remain strikingly realistic about what they can and cannot expect from

America. Spanish media outlets expressed fear about the increasing toxicity pervading political

culture and discourse in the U.S. leading up to the election, while others commented on the

profound and deeply entrenched divisions between voters.43 There is widespread agreement that

Americans will have much to tend to at home and that Biden’s transatlantic promises may be overshadowed by domestic issues. Continued Spanish-American cooperation will depend on the

actions Biden takes once in office and whether he can deliver on what the Spanish people and government seem to wish for most: steady American leadership on the international stage.

ITALY

Measured Italian responses to the U.S. election indicate the shifting balance of global

influence, as many perceive the United States as an unreliable ally. Italy is of geopolitical significance to the U.S., and given its proximity to the Middle East and North Africa, hosts several U.S. military bases.44 The Italian economy, like that of Portugal and Spain, has struggled

to rebound since 2008 but enjoys a significant amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) from the United States.45 Though bilateral trade between the two countries remains strong,

amounting to roughly $103 billion in 2019,46 the trade war the U.S. waged with Europe resulted

in uncertainty and distrust of America as an economic and security partner. Given the historically

prosperous relationship between the two countries, Italians felt the negative effects of Trump’s

isolationist economic policies. Moreover, Trump’s bombastic self-serving leadership style

was reminiscent of the Italian businessman, media mogul, and former Prime Minister Silvio

Berlusconi.47 Berlusconi, who came to power by leveraging his private media network, faced numerous judicial investigations, accusations of bribery and lude conduct with women, is now

credited with drastically restructuring the Italian party system and far-right.48

The 2020 U.S. election garnered particular attention in Italy, and Italians’ preferences

in the election can be generalized as a strong distaste for Trump and neutrality or ambivalence

towards Biden.49 Greater complexity, however, lies under these reactions. Italy’s government is

marked by similar populist and nationalist movements and deep divisions within the electorate.

The 2018 general elections in Italy resulted in a coalition formed by the Eurosceptic and populist

Movimento 5 Stelle (MFS) and the Lega (League).50 Although Lega’s leader, Matteo Salvini,

remained an ardent Trump supporter even through the prolonged vote count,51 Salvini did express

willingness to work with Biden after his win was secured. While many other Italian politicians and leaders expressed hope for and support of a Biden presidency throughout the campaign, the disparity in the responses is demonstrative of Italy’s widening political divisions.

It is difficult to predict what will become of the Italian-American relationship under the Biden administration. The conservative Eurosceptic parties in power may find themselves somewhat unmoored without a Eurosceptic U.S. president as an ally, and like other Western European nations, Italy has turned its attention to the possibilities of new allies. There is already

a significant amount of Chinese foreign direct investment in Italy, and China was quick to offer Italy aid after the first devastating wave of coronavirus hit the country. 52 China is not only seen

in a friendly light by the Italian public, it is seen as the friendliest country. According to a poll

conducted by SWG, 52% of the respondents named China as a friend of Italy, while only 17% named the United States.53 Biden’s rhetoric of transatlantic cooperation and strength is promising for a country that still depends on reliable American military and economic support. However,

should Biden falter in his commitments or become delayed by domestic issues, Italy may seek assistance elsewhere.

VATICAN CITY Pope Francis officially congratulated Biden on November 12th, expressing his desire to cooperate on ameliorating several international and pressing environmental and social issues.54

While many across Europe are looking forward to renewed partnerships on economic and security issues, the Vatican’s response to the U.S. election provides a layer of understanding that

centers on the ideological implications of American leadership rather than economic prosperity

or security.