Further European Responses

international institutions and Merkel’s push for better trade deals in China under the new EU-

China trade agreement.

In considering the responses of other key players in Europe, such as Turkey, Switzerland,

Russia, Serbia, Kosovo, and Albania, not primarily grouped by region due to trends, it’s

important to note that each country possesses a unique history with the U.S. that has and will

continue to influence relations between them. Despite the non-EU status of the first three listed, as well as the still-pending candidacy of the three Western Balkan states, these countries demonstrate the interconnectedness of European affairs with their neighbors and the world.

TURKEY In recent years, Turkish relations with the U.S. have become strained over disputes on

Syrian policy, Russia, and the democratic erosion spearheaded by President of Turkey Recep

Tayyip Erdoğan. Despite such differences, amiability persisted between the U.S. and Turkey, buoyed by a friendship between Trump and Erdoğan based on their ideological similarities. In the build-up to the election, Turkey publicly pledged to support whoever won and followed

through, congratulating Biden on his victory.112 However, some analysts believe a Biden presidency could ultimately end up harming U.S.-Turkey relations because of Biden’s strong anti-authoritarian rhetoric, which is likely to clash with Erdoğan’s authoritarian leanings.113

Nevertheless, public support of Biden and condemnation of the January 6 riots could indicate a renewed Turkish effort to appear in line with Europe’s values and to revive consideration for

EU accession, particularly now that Turkey-U.S. relations cannot count on a Trump-Erdoğan relationship.

EU accession has long been a Turkish goal, and many EU countries also stand to benefit from this possibility, given Turkey’s trade leverage and strategic location. However, there are

several major roadblocks to Turkish admittance to the EU, including the fact that the majority

of their landmass is in Asia, objections to a potential rise in Turkish immigration to elsewhere

in Europe, over a high influx of immigrants, a troublesome human rights history, and the inevitable shift of power in European Institutions that a country as large as Turkey would bring

about.114 Erdoğan’s authoritarian leanings and crackdowns on liberal values have also put this accession bid at risk, as Turkey continues to violate many of the EU’s core principles.115 A Biden administration with a strong anti-authoritarian stance, coupled with the loss of a key Erdoğan ally in Trump could potentially push Turkey in the direction of EU accession and away from its

increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but this is also dependent on the growing influence of other authoritarian leaders in Turkey’s vicinity.

RUSSIA Russia’s history of relations with the U.S. is long and contentious, and animosity has

undoubtedly increased in recent years. While Trump rarely criticized President Vladimir Putin during his time in office, relations between the U.S. and Russia have been deteriorating since Russia’s annexation of Crimea, an action which the U.S. considered illegal and responded to with

punitive sanctions.116 In 2016, many Russians supported Trump’s election, believing he would mend relations between the two countries, but they were ultimately disappointed. Prior to the

2020 election, a poll reported two-thirds of Russian citizens did not care who won, and a separate

poll revealed that many had never heard of Biden.117 During the election itself, many Russian

officials believed Trump would ultimately prevail. For Russian state media, the uncertainty of the outcome in the days immediately following November 3 demonstrated U.S. democracy’s

fragility and smacked of irony, given that the U.S. had previously accused Russian leaders

of stealing elections.118 Putin was slow to congratulate Biden, waiting until after the electoral college certification in December to officially accept the result, which he did not do after Trump’s election in 2016.119 In his statement, Putin spoke of his hope to work with the Biden administration to renew the soon-to-expire nuclear proliferation treaty. Biden has been critical of Russia in the past and is likely to take a harsher stance against Russia’s autocratic tendencies

than his predecessor. His probable reengagement with NATO and the European community

may also put him at odds with the Kremlin.120 However, Russia’s general apathy of toward the

election suggests that already-tense relations between the two countries are unlikely to change

significantly.

SERBIA President Aleksandar Vučić of Serbia holds a grudge against the U.S. for its contributions to the Kosovo independence movement, particularly against the Democratic Party and then-

President Bill Clinton. Biden was one of the senators who pushed most for U.S. and NATO intervention in the Balkans during both the Bosnian War and the Kosovo War in the 1990s.121

Vučić stated, “Trump did not participate in the bombing and creation of Kosovo. [A Biden presidency] will be harder for U.S.”122 Although he has been cordial in congratulating President

Biden on his victory, Vučić had publicly stated a Trump reelection would have been “better for Serbia.”123 Vučić has also demonstrated growing authoritarian tendencies, which pose a threat to the United States’ perennial aim for the spread of democracy and the end of regional

corruption.124

KOSOVO The historic ties between Kosovo and the U.S. Democratic Party run deep due to aid

and support provided during the Kosovo War.125 As previously mentioned, then-Senator Biden, in particular, pushed most for intervention in the region, including during the Kosovo War.126

Nevertheless, Kosovo has experienced difficulties in its relations with the U.S. under the Trump administration, especially when Trump appeared to manufacture diplomatic successes in the

region without consideration for the EU.127 Biden intends to increase collaboration with the EU, so that entity may be more involved in future negotiations to strengthen democracy and stability

in Kosovo.128 Additionally, Biden’s relationship with Kosovo could further pressure Serbia to recognize Kosovo’s sovereignty, paving the way for increased international recognition and

potential membership in international organizations.

ALBANIA

Unlike many of its neighbors, Albania is a NATO member, so their interests tend to align

with those of greater Europe, especially in commitments to security and democracy. In return

for Albanian military and anti-terrorism efforts, the U.S. has provided developmental aid which

has strengthened democratic institutions, integrated the country into European and Euro-Atlantic

diplomatic structures, and promoted stable and sustainable economic growth. The U.S. hopes to

soon launch the U.S.-Albania Transparency Academy, focusing on four pillars: Accountability

and Oversight in Public Financial Management, Transparency and Ethics in the Private Sector,

Youth Engagement in Promoting a Culture of Transparency, and Justice for All. Albania has a consistent, nonpartisan relationship with the U.S., which includes bilateral economic relations

involving trade and an investment treaty. The U.S.-Albanian relationship is not projected to be

significantly affected by the outcome of the 2020 U.S. election because of the mutual interests both candidates shared.129

SWITZERLAND Switzerland, an important trading partner with the United States, stands to be heavily

impacted economically by the U.S. election. As it is not a member of the EU, the U.S. must

negotiate its trade deals with Switzerland directly and individually, so analysts suspect Biden’s focus on the EU will lead him to place a lower priority on agreements with Switzerland.130

Despite this, it seems most Swiss experts, commentators, and members of the public favored

Biden, believing his victory would be better for stability and democracy. 131 Many commentators

were critical of Republican support for Trump and correctly predicted the upheaval that

would follow.132 Overall, Swiss relations are unlikely to change much under Biden, but most Swiss citizens were relieved with the election of a president whom they believe has a stronger

commitment to democracy.