Wine Country real estate trends in November 2021
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Gerrett Snedaker, CRB
by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 1,479 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of November. Inventory is 32% below that of a year ago (2,165) and it is 24% below the inventory last month (1,949). At times, the inventory has exceeded 10,000 homes in the BAREIS region. There were 1,395 sales for the month of November. This number is 2% above a year ago (1.367) and 8% below the pace of last month (1,512).</span> Prices normally peak in November and stay level through January. National forecasts predict increasing inventory and a slowing of price appreciation in the coming months and into 2022. This seems to be happening across Wine Country and we’ll see if this is a seasonal trend WINE COUNTRY REAL (the end of summer market) or ESTATE TRENDS IN a longer-term direction. The NOVEMBER 2021 median price for all homes closed For all of the areas covered in the BAREIS region was 13%
EAR OVER YEAR COMPARISONS In mid-March 2020, the COVID19 pandemic was declared and all parties were told to “Shelter in Place”. This basically shut down the residential real estate industry through the month of April 2020. The market then accelGERRETT erated rapidly SNEDAKER in May through November. Year over year statistical comparisons are therefore going to be skewed by these market aberrations created last year. The closings of this year are more “normalized” than the closings of November 2020 so it may look like a “slow down” in an otherwise healthy market.
18 | DISTINCTIVE PROPERTIES
higher than a year ago. I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio” (PRR) for the past year, or so. Across the country, on average, one might expect that 30 to 35% of the homes put into the MLS will have a price reduction before they eventually sell. Currently, for the entire country, the ratio is 27% up from a low of 15% in April of this year. For November 2021, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, the range was from 27% (Sonoma and Mendocino Counties) to 32% (Napa County). Conversely, the ratio of homes selling in excess of Original List Price (OLP) ranged from 48% (Sonoma County) to 43% (Mendocino County). It was 45% in Napa County. The average Price Reduction Ratio for all areas has gone a low of 14% in May of this year to 29% where it stands now. The Over List Price has dropped from 55% in May to the current level of 45%. These are signs of a cooling market after the heated COVID run-up of last year.
NAPA COUNTY The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of November (180) is 38% below the inventory in November 2020 (290) and it is 25% below the inventory last month (239). Seventy percent of the inventory in Napa County (126 properties) is priced at $1,000,000 or above. New sales (108) are 4% below the pace of last year (113) and are 18% below the 131 sales last month. There is a 1.7 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 53 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going Please see Trends, Page 20 December 2021
