18
Russia’s war in Ukraine will not hinder Europe’s energy transition, DNV says
Norway-based classification society DNV has revealed within its new analysis that the war in Ukraine will not derail Europe’s energy transition. Instead, it is expected to speed it up as countries pivot towards renewables in a bid to become independent from Russian gas more quickly, leading to faster decarbonisation.
Turning away from Russian gas will accelerate Europe’s energy transition due to fewer fossil fuels in the energy mix and lower greenhouse gas emissions, DNV says. A new analysis from its Energy Transition Research shows that 34 per cent of the energy mix in Europe – two percentage points more than the pre-war forecast – will come from non-fossil fuels in 2024. Pre-war model Moreover, overall gas use will drop 9 per cent in 2024 compared with DNV’s pre-war model run. As explained by DNV, the biggest percentage increase is in solar, which by 2026 is up 20 per cent while the delayed retirement of some of the continent’s nuclear power
plants is also an important component of filling the gap. While DNV recognizes that some coal is needed in the very short term to meet Europe’s energy demand, its report and analysis anticipate that postponed retirements and higher nuclear utilization will be important to cover the shortfall of natural gas by 2024. DNV presumed Europe would cut Russian gas imports by 80 per cent in 2023 and 100 per cent in 2025 for this analysis. Remi Eriksen, Group President and CEO of DNV, remarked: “As they did during the COVID-19 pandemic, Europe’s leaders have applied clarity of thought during a crisis to accelerate
the continent’s energy transition. This time Europe is increasing energy security whilst reducing emissions.” Emissions from energy Furthermore, emissions from energy will be 580Mt or 2.3 per cent lower in Europe in the period 2022-2030, compared to a pathway without the Ukraine war, based on this analysis. According to DNV, this is due to the increased prominence of low carbon energy – renewables and nuclear – more energy efficiency and, in the short to medium term, lower economic growth. DNV believes that Russia’s pivot East will not fully compensate for reduced gas exports to Europe because of lim-
