THE NET LEASE BIG BOX REPORT Q4 2015 BIG BOX ASKING CAP RATE COMPARISON Q4 2014 (Previous)
Q4 2015 (Current)
Basis Point Change
6.71%
6.08%
-63
BIG BOX VS. NET LEASE SECTOR MEDIAN ASKING CAP RATE Sector
Q4 2014 (Previous)
Q4 2015 (Current)
Big Box
6.71%
6.08%
Retail Net Lease Market
6.50%
6.25%
+21
-17
Differential (bps)
BIG BOX PROPERTIES MEDIAN ASKING PRICE Average Price
Average Price Per SF
Investment Grade
$11,990,118
$255
Non-Investment Grade
$7,500,000
$150
Sector
BIG BOX MEDIAN ASKING CAP RATE BY CREDIT RATING Investment Grade Cap Rate
Non-Investment Grade Cap Rate
Basis Point Spread
5.20%
6.75%
155
MARKET OVERVIEW Cap rates in the single tenant net lease big box sector compressed from the fourth quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2015 by 63 basis points to a 6.08% cap rate. The compression achieved by the big box sector was significantly greater than that of the entire net lease retail sector. From the fourth quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2015, the net lease retail sector compressed by only 25 basis points. As a result, the fourth quarter of 2015 represented the first time since 2010 that the big box sector was priced at a premium to the entire retail net lease market. Much of the compression experienced in the big box sector can be derived from the influx of Walmart Neighborhood Market properties that were introduced to the market throughout 2015. There was over a 200% increase in Walmart Neighborhood Market properties available in the fourth quarter of 2015 when compared to the prior year. Walmart Neighborhood Market properties made up approximately 22% of the overall big box sector and are investment grade rated. The median asking cap rate for Walmart Neighborhood Market properties was 5.10% leading to much of the cap rate compression within this sector. The median asking price for net lease big box properties was $9 million in the fourth quarter. This figure was even higher for properties tenanted by investment grade rated companies at approximately $12 million. Big box properties tenanted with investment grade rated tenants command a 155 basis point premium over those without. However, only 40% of the sector’s supply is tenanted by investment grade tenants. The majority of investors prefer investment grade properties as they are easier to finance. It is expected that investors will continue to target long term leased big box properties with investment grade tenants. However, it should be noted that there is a lack of development and expansion for the major tenants in this sector excluding Walmart Neighborhood Market. With limited new development, investors may seek vintage properties recently backfilled with new big box users or properties with extended leases. Investors will be carefully monitoring the tenant’s most recent store prototype footprints as retailers continue to shift the size of their stores. Short term leased properties or non-credit tenants will garner interest due to the increased yield if the properties exhibit strong real estate fundamentals or high residual values.
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THE NET LEASE BIG BOX REPORT Q4 2015 MEDIAN ASKING CAP RATES BY SQUARE FOOTAGE
MEDIAN ASKING CAP RATE BY LEASE TERM REMAINING
SF Range
Cap Rate
Percentage of Market
Years Remaining
Investment Grade
Non-Investment Grade
Junior Big Box
20,000 - 40,000
6.59%
31%
16-20
5.00%
5.75%
Mid Box
40,000 - 80,000
5.75%
52%
11-15
5.20%
6.39%
17%
6-10
6.00%
7.00%
5 & Under
7.25%
7.88%
Sector
Large Format
Over 80,000
6.70%
BIG BOX MEDIAN ASKING CAP RATE BY REGION 5.50% 7.00% 6.00%
T S EA H T R NO
WEST MOUNTAIN
MIDWEST
SOUTH 6.75% 5.75%
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THE NET LEASE BIG BOX REPORT Q4 2015 SELECTED SINGLE TENANT BIG BOX CLOSED TRANSACTIONS IN 2015 Sale Date
Tenant
City
State
Price
Price/SF
Cap Rate
Lease Term Remaining
Sep-15
Lifetime Fitness
Las Vegas
Jun-15
Home Depot
Tacoma
NV
$51,000,000
$355
5.80%
20
WA
$32,655,000
$238
6.10%
11
Oct-15
Kohl's
Lakewood
CO
Sep-15
LA Fitness
Powell
OH
$18,705,000
$211
5.95%
10
$16,936,000
$502
6.91%
Nov-15
Walmart Neighborhood Market
Anderson
12
SC
$13,900,000
$336
5.15%
20
Aug-15
West Marine
Chicago
IL
$12,622,000
$631
6.90%
15
Nov-15
Walmart Neighborhood Market
West Monroe
LA
$11,957,000
$289
5.10%
20
Jun-15
Walmart Neighborhood Market
Katy
TX
$11,089,000
$265
5.05%
20
Jul-15
Lowe's
Chilicothe
OH
$11,000,000
$84
7.47%
5
Sep-15
Sprouts Farmers Market
Pearland
TX
$9,175,000
$372
5.70%
15
Sep-15
Kohl's
Grand Island
NE
$7,725,000
$112
6.25%
11
Jul-15
PetSmart
Bowie
MD
$6,400,000
$245
6.50%
6
COMPANY COMPARISON Tenant 24 Hour Fitness Academy Sports Bed Bath & Beyond Best Buy BJ's Wholesale Dick's Sporting Goods Gander Mountain Hobby Lobby Kmart Kohl's Kroger La Fitness Lowe's Petco PetSmart Ross Shopko Sports Authority Staples The Home Depot Wal-Mart Whole Foods
FOR MORE INFORMATION
Total Number of Stores
Credit Rating
400+ 200+ 1,500+ 1,055 210 610 152 600 942 1,165 2,774 800+ 1,840 1,300 1,352 1,254 357 460+ 2,000+ 2,248 11,598 431
B Not Rated BBB+ BB+ BNot Rated Not Rated Not Rated CCC+ BBB BBB Not Rated AB B+ ANot Rated Not Rated BBBA AA BBB-
AUTHOR John Feeney | Vice President john@bouldergroup.com
CONTRIBUTORS Randy Blankstein | President randy@bouldergroup.com Jimmy Goodman | Partner jimmy@bouldergroup.com Zach Wright | Research Analyst zach@bouldergroup.com Scott Harris | Analyst scott@bouldergroup.com
Š 2016. The Boulder Group. Information herein has been obtained from databases owned and maintained by The Boulder Group as well as third party sources. We have not verified the information and we make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. This information is provided for general illustrative purposes and not for any specific recommendation or purpose nor under any circumstances shall any of the above information be deemed legal advice or counsel. Reliance on this information is at the risk of the reader and The Boulder Group expressly disclaims any liability arising from the use of such information. This information is designed exclusively for use by The Boulder Group clients and cannot be reproduced, retransmitted or distributed without the express written consent of The Boulder Group.
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