THE NET LEASE CASUAL DINING MARKET REPORT Q1 2016 CORPORATE LEASED PROPERTIES MEDIAN ASKING CAP RATE Tenant
Q1 2016
Buffalo Wild Wings
5.90%
Chili's (GL)
5.00%
Hooters
6.00%
IHOP
6.00%
Outback Steakhouse
5.00%
Red Lobster
5.75%
Texas Roadhouse (GL)
4.75%
All Corporate Casual Dining
5.65%
GL = Ground lease
FRANCHISEE LEASED PROPERTIES MEDIAN ASKING CAP RATE Tenant
Q1 2016
Applebees
6.13%
Denny's
5.50%
IHOP
6.34%
TGI Friday's
6.75%
All Franchisee Casual Dining
6.30%
CASUAL DINING PROPERTIES MEDIAN ASKING PRICE Tenant
Median Price
All Casual Dining
$3,555,556
Applebees
$3,156,000
Buffalo Wild Wings
$3,800,000
Chili's
$1,900,000
Denny's
$2,709,091
Hooters
$3,295,652
IHOP
$3,589,000
Outback Steakhouse
$4,358,000
Red Robster
$4,503,732
Texas Roadhouse
$2,322,500
TGI Friday's
$3,865,278
MARKET OVERVIEW Cap rates in the net lease casual dining restaurant sector were 5.75% in the first quarter of 2016. Casual dining restaurant properties with corporately guaranteed leases had cap rates of 5.65% while franchisee leased properties were priced 65 basis points higher at 6.30%. Cap rates for casual dining restaurant properties will vary depending on if the lease is guaranteed by a franchisee or corporate operator. In the first quarter of 2016, franchisee backed casual dining restaurants accounted for only 31% of the overall supply of casual dining restaurants. Franchisee operated restaurants were priced at a 65 basis point discount compared to corporate backed restaurants. Additionally, cap rates for franchisee backed restaurants can fluctuate depending on the financial strength and size of the franchisee. Investor demand for single tenant casual dining restaurant properties can be illustrated by the 43 basis point cap rate premium over the entire net lease retail sector (6.18%). Net lease investors have targeted the casual dining sector as it is one of the few net lease sectors that is e-commerce resistant. Private and 1031 exchange buyers are attracted to casual dining restaurant properties as they are frequently absolute triple net and feature rental escalations during the primary lease term. Additionally, casual dining restaurant properties feature recognizable tenants and are typically located in highly visible locations in retail corridors. In the first quarter of 2016, private buyers accounted for 93% of all single tenant casual dining restaurant transactions outside of portfolio sales. During the same time period, REITs and institutional investors accounted for 75% of all portfolio transactions involving casual dining restaurants. Sale leaseback transactions by large corporate operators such as Darden, Bloomin’ Brands and Bob Evans have been able to boost supply of single tenant casual dining restaurant properties for sale. In the current low cap rate environment, operators are able to unlock the value of their owned real estate and are able to use the capital proceeds for repayment of debt or stock buyback programs. The expectation is that the sale leaseback market will remain active as operators will attempt to take advantage of the low cap rate environment. The single tenant net lease casual dining restaurant sector will remain active as this asset type continues to attract private and 1031 exchange investors. The rental escalations and absolute net lease language found in the majority of the leases associated with casual dining restaurants are attractive to private and 1031 buyers. Corporately guaranteed leases will remain in the highest demand among private investors due to the strength of credit associated with the assets. REITs and institutional investors will continue to seek larger portfolios of casual dining restaurant properties via sale leaseback transactions. Portfolio transactions typically allow economies of scale and higher yields compared to acquisitions on a one-off basis.
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THE NET LEASE CASUAL DINING MARKET REPORT Q1 2016 SELECTED SINGLE TENANT SALES COMPARABLES Sale Date
Tenant
City
Apr-16 Mar-16 Jan-16 Dec-15 Mar-16 Dec-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Nov-15 Apr-16 Jan-16 Mar-16 Dec-15 Mar-16 Apr-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Feb-16 Feb-16
Red Lobster Outback Steakhouse Outback Steakhouse Golden Corral On The Border Golden Corral Logan's Roadhouse IHOP Logan's Roadhouse Hooters IHOP Hooters Applebee's Red Lobster Applebee's Texas Roadhouse (GL) Buffalo Wild Wings Buffalo Wild Wings Denny's
San Jose Surprise Jacksonville Beach Pompano Beach Midwest City Glendale Orlando Beavercreek Dickson Columbia Albuquerque Phoenix Monroe Danville Delray Beach Hadley Olive Branch Hanover Tiffin
State
Price
Price/SF
Cap Rate
Lease Term Remaining
CA AZ FL FL OK AZ FL OH TN SC NM AZ GA VA FL MA MS PA OH
$7,370,000 $4,630,000 $4,200,000 $4,178,000 $3,900,000 $3,840,000 $3,800,000 $3,775,000 $3,602,000 $3,400,000 $3,200,000 $3,100,000 $2,700,000 $2,636,000 $2,525,000 $2,425,000 $2,166,000 $2,100,000 $1,450,000
$935 $744 $699 $378 $654 $317 $475 $776 $546 $660 $795 $499 $489 $479 $531 $338 $392 $386 $378
5.50% 5.32% 5.00% 6.05% 6.41% 6.88% 6.74% 6.04% 7.25% 7.55% 5.88% 5.50% 5.90% 5.90% 4.50% 5.36% 7.50% 6.19% 6.85%
23 15 15 12 15 20 10 20 13 10 12 10 20 19 6 10 3 12 20
CASUAL DINING MEDIAN ASKING CAP RATE BY REGION 6.05%
T S EA H T R NO
WEST MOUNTAIN 5.43%
MIDWEST
5.70%
SOUTH 5.75% 5.75%
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THE NET LEASE CASUAL DINING MARKET REPORT Q1 2016 CASUAL DINING VS RETAIL NET LEASE MARKET CAP RATES
MEDIAN ASKING CAP RATE BY LEASE TERM REMAINING
Q1 2016 (Current)
Sector Casual Dining Sector
5.75%
Retail Net Lease Market
6.18%
Casual Dining Premium (bps)
Lease Term Remaining
Cap Rate
20+
5.35%
15-19
5.75%
10-14
6.00%
5-9
6.45%
Below 5
6.95%
43
MEDIAN NATIONAL CLOSED CAP RATE SPREAD
CASUAL DINING ASKING CAP RATE BY GUARANTOR
Sector
Closed
Asking
Spread (bps)
Corporate Cap Rate
Franchisee Cap Rate
Spread (bps)
Casual Dining
5.56%
5.35%
21
5.65%
6.30%
65
FOR MORE INFORMATION AUTHOR John Feeney | Vice President john@bouldergroup.com
CONTRIBUTORS Randy Blankstein | President
Jimmy Goodman | Partner
Zach Wright | Senior Analyst
Scott Harris | Analyst
randy@bouldergroup.com
jimmy@bouldergroup.com
zach@bouldergroup.com
scott@bouldergroup.com
Š 2016. The Boulder Group. Information herein has been obtained from databases owned and maintained by The Boulder Group as well as third party sources. We have not verified the information and we make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. This information is provided for general illustrative purposes and not for any specific recommendation or purpose nor under any circumstances shall any of the above information be deemed legal advice or counsel. Reliance on this information is at the risk of the reader and The Boulder Group expressly disclaims any liability arising from the use of such information. This information is designed exclusively for use by The Boulder Group clients and cannot be reproduced, retransmitted or distributed without the express written consent of The Boulder Group.
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