Critic 3, Autumn 2022

Liz Truss and the wild bunch

Bella Coles Gazzoli, Keerit Dhillon, Keisha Iyaloo, Nikita Pienaar, Zara Talbot

Mini Budget

The mini budget delivered by Liz Truss’ government caused ‘disruption’, after it was followed by a series of economic shocks that included the pound falling to an all time low against the dollar. There was a strong market reaction to the intense cut in income taxes, which amounted to the biggest tax cut in over 50 years The key points of the mini budget were that the top rate of income tax for the highest earners was abolished, there is a planned increase to corporation tax from 19% to 25%, a freeze on energy bills, a cut to a basic rate of income tax to 19% brought forward to April 2023, stamp duty has been cut and the bankers’ bonus cap axed.

Subsequently the Bank of England spent billions of pounds buying up government debt to sustain pension schemes. In efforts to try and echo decisions made by Kwasi Kwarteng, Truss says “not all the measures we announced last week will be universally popular. But we had to do something different We had no other choice” Lizz truss admits that she could have done more to prepare the ground for Kwasi Kwarteng’s financial statement, which spooked the markets and sent the pound plummeting. This forced a £19.3 billion intervention from the Bank of England.

Consumer confidence

After the Mini Budget was announced, consumer and business confidence plummeted in the UK. The pound crashed in September as the markets lost confidence in the government, and there was a ‘fire-sale’ of UK assets as markets became too spooked by the mini-budget This drop in confidence was a cause for concern for investors, and worries of the UK edging towards a recession started to rise. The low confidence of consumers is bad for the economy because investment and spending will decrease and this therefore leads to a decrease in aggregate demand. Consumer

confidence in London decreased from -22 in August to -30 in September. This is the lowest level since the financial crisis. The GfK index of consumer confidence reflects people’s views on their financial position and the general economy over the past year and in the next 12 months. The bond markets have fallen, and the UK stock market has also suffered at is now below 7,000.

Strong Market Reaction

Gilt Market and the Moron risk premium:

Gilt prices rose dramatically after Boris Johnson resigned and once more when the mini budget was announced. As you can see on the graph below, the cost of borrowing for the UK government is much higher than for other countries. The Moron Risk Premium (MRP) is the extra money the UK is paying to borrow due to the lack of confidence in the government. The yield on 30-year gilts has shot up far quicker than other countries’ equivalent bonds since Liz Truss, who has since resigned, took power in early September, reflecting a lack of trust in her government’s economic competence 30-year gilts are a special case because they are where the Bank of England chose to intervene, in part because of their role in liability-driven investment structures, a strategy which some big pension funds rely on.

The Mini-Budget was worth about 1 percentage point of MRP, showing decreased confidence in the government. Whereas, the Bank of England’s intervention countered this, resulting in a 1 percentage point reduction of MRP. Furthermore, assumptions of Kwarteng’s sacking were equivalent to negative 0.2 percentage points of MRP.

Having a new prime minister should restore confidence, which means the exchange rate should increase, causing more people to move their money to the UK; this is referred to as ‘Hot money ’ . This will bolster the UK economy which should mean

bond yields will fall The hope is that the above was only a short-term blip

What could the UK be doing to help Ukrainian refugees? Ingrid Chan

In spite of the Ukrainian crisis, the UK government has been bashed by many for not doing enough for the Ukrainians, in comparison to other European countries However, what must the UK government do to help the refugees? This crisis once again begs the question

Before the essay starts discussing how the UK government can help the refugees, let us first start by defining refugees. According to the UNHCR, refugees are people who have fled war, violence, conflict or persecution and have crossed an international border to find safety in another country.

The first step to helping refugees that have fled their country is to allow them into the UK, with or without a visa or asylum Currently the UK government has introduced a family visa scheme and Homes for Ukraine scheme for Ukrainian refugees to legally live in the UK, however, these two schemes would only allow a small number of refugees into the UK. The UK can take reference from its old way of handling refugees. In Hong Kong from the 1970s until the end of British sovereignty, there was a huge surge of Vietnamese refugees arriving into Hong Kong after the fall of Saigon in the Vietnam War (1955-1975). Under the

influence of UNHCR, Hong Kong had accepted nearly 200,000 Vietnamese refugees over the years- usually without any visa and asylum pre-approved which would allow more refugees to be placed under safe circumstances, a way to help refugees, and a practical way to show support to refugees and the country, Ukraine, under these circumstances. Poland, for example, allowed all refugees to cross the border to seek help and gain official refugee status there, with or without any official document. However, it must be acknowledged that allowing a huge influx of refugees would undoubtedly cause safeguarding issues, especially when the UK government would have to put the UK’s citizens’ collective safety as their top priority.

The second step to helping the refugees is to introduce a visa that would allow more refugees to legally live in the UK after careful screening, to prevent any safeguarding issues that would harm the greater good of UK citizens. The UK can probably take reference to how Canada is handling the situation in light of the Ukrainian refugees crisis. Canada, a close ally of the UK, had issued two kinds of visas for Ukrainian refugees to permanently live in Canada, open to every Ukrainian. While upholding a high quality

screening for anyone that would like to stay in Canada, it would still allow a huge amount of refugees to stay in Canada without the help of family members and sponsorship, and allow them to contribute to the country they wish to stay- a way for the country to show support and for refugees to show gratitude to the country by contributing to their economy. However, there would still be leaps and bounds refugees have to go through before settling into the country, including accessing d T t y p

they are not paying taxes. Poland sets a great example under this category. Alongside legally living and working across the bloc, Ukrainian refugees are also entitled to all the benefits Polish citizens have, such as free public education, health insurance and a child allowance These benefits would greatly benefit the refugees as they would have spent a good amount of money when leaving

their original country, and it would take some time until they find a decent job in the country that can support their family. With the help of these benefits, it would give them less financial pressure to find a job to allow their family to survive, after a traumatic experience of war and leaving the country they have spent their lives living in. However, this would undoubtedly increase the general spending of the country, as Poland has demonstrated that they would use 1% of their economic output (equivalent to 25 billion zloty) to aid Ukrainian refugees, which is undesirable.

Last but not least, it is the with the utmost importance that UK citizens as a whole accept them into the community without any discrimination. After experiencing traumatising experiences such as war or political unrest, they may want to settle in a country that is comparatively safe and peaceful, such as the UK. They may also miss their home country very much, despite all the things that have happened there, so UK citizens should never dismiss their past memories associated with the country.

There is much the UK can do to help refugees, and these are just some ways the UK and the government can do to help refugees All in all, the most important thing for us to do is to accept and help them with open arms, and allow them to settle in as soon as possible.

I think true liberty can partially be from the control of others, however, you can also separate your freedom to make it entirely independent. Control, meaning the power to influence or direct people's behaviour or the course of events, does have a significant impact on how free each of us as individuals are Some of these contributing factors are your age, religion, family life, location and sex.

Consequences, punishments and morality are the only three arguments that prevent people from completely rebelling. Having consequences and punishments from your phone being taken away to jail time influences the majority of people's decisions despite what they want to do mentally. Therefore, we are not free and cannot do what we

‘True liberty is freedom from the control of others’

Aniya Kapoor

want to do even if it is considered wrong Criminal activity is based on people using their full ability and freedom to steal, harm etc. Freedom is considered to be a good idea for humans to enjoy and make the most of life, on the other hand, this usually is not done without impacting or affecting others. These actions can cause feelings of guilt which also impacts freedom in the sense that we will not want to do what we want to again

However this is self-inflicted so your loss of freedom are the consequences you have given yourself. Freedom may also mean wanting the impossible to happen. Having things that do not exist like the famous idea of the flying pig can yet again impact your freedom as there is nothing you can do about it. This means we do not have freedom to a full extent and us as humans have

freedom if you are not caught We all have the freedom to do what we wish if we ignore all consequences. Unless you have a physical or mental disability that can impact you pursuing this. An example of this can be PTSD or being in a wheelchair that physically will stop you from carrying out what you want to do. But this is a natural occurrence which means that if you're comparing yourself to others then you have less freedom but individually you have had the same amount of freedom your whole life. Other than this we have the full ability to murder someone despite the consequences, however for the most part the majority of humans do not want to carry out an action such as murder which means we are also free in the opposite way in the sense that we also do not have to do what we do to want to do. For example, if it was compulsory to murder everyone you see and you did not want to this would be the reverse of our laws today thus also taking away our freedom in the same way.

m to buy something to eat.

Despite the fact there being restrictions, people can always have the ability to break these rules and rebel instinctively. This gives us no restrictions to

In conclusion, I think as humans we are free to do what we wish to do at any time, in addition to this everyone is equal and originally had no authority over anyone else Despite the restrictions and laws we are given, the majority of people have the ability to pursue their own interests and wishes. I think that it is a positive thing that we have restrictions to also test our own patience and willpower as individuals. I think that if we did not have these restrictions that everyone would be less free because you would be scared and too conscious of others around you being harmful or dangerous

Is the story of the paralysed man unclear? Neve Pearson

In this essay I intend to explain why I agree that the precise story of the paralysed man is unclear by analysing the story more closely to search for a possible meaning and then comparing it to Jesus' other healing miracles, which seem clearer in their message.

Firstly, I would like to start with the major part of the story, when Jesus sees the paralysed man and forgives him for his sins. However, at this point the reader is left confused, why did he decide to forgive his sins before healing him? In what way did he sin? And most importantly why was the man suddenly worthy of healing and forgiveness? The explanation given is that Jesus saw the faith of his four friends, which is demonstrated when they break through the roof and lower the injured man down to him based on the strength of their belief in his healing ability However, the meaning isn’t entirely clear - we cannot clearly say the story of the paralysed man is about staying faithful to God on an individual level; yet the role of the friends feels minor, which suggests the story is not about strength of faith, as some claim.

Next, I would like to raise a second issue with this story, the fact Jesus first forgave the paralysed man before restoring his ability to walk when above all he was coming to be healed from his paralysis. Interestingly, the theme of paralysis is seen over 30 separate times in the Bible and quite significantly later on, where Jesus heals the man with a paralysed hand (Mark 3:1-6). This story is considered to be quite controversial as it took place on the day of Sabbath when Jewish people traditionally rest. Here we can spot a second recurring theme, the clash between Jesus and the religious leaders of the time (previously referred to as ‘teachers of the law’), this is seen in both stories, firstly he is accused of blasphemy and secondly he is placed under threat of death by the Pharisees and the Herodians (ancient Jewish sects characterised by strict adherence to the law and strong anti-Jesus sentiment). The repetition of such

themes leads me to question whether the sole purpose of the story was actually to show the clash between Jewish leaders and the growing popularity of Jesus, rather than tell a precise, detailed story or provide some kind of moral.

Finally, it is important to compare the story of the paralysed man to some other stories of Jesus’s healing miracles. Many of which contain the same kind of ideas, like the story of the man with the paralysed hand which I referenced, but are much clearer in their story I would like to start with ‘the story of the bleeding woman ’ (Mark 5:25-34) This story, much like the two others, starts with a sick person seeking help from Jesus - in this case a woman who has been bleeding for 12 years (modern doctors now believe this was a haemorrhage) despite attempts from multiple doctors to relieve her suffering. However, in those times her physical suffering would have gone hand in hand with societal and religious isolation; as part

of the Jewish religion she would have been seen as niddah (a menstruating woman) and therefore considered unclean. In order to become considered ‘clean’ again she would have to have stopped menstruating within 7 days, which of course she was unable to do. Therefore she would have been shunned by the society at the time. However, when she touched Jesus’ cloak she is relieved of her suffering, when he sees her he says ‘Sister your faith has healed you ’ , the message of this story is both precise and immediately clear - those who are faithful will be healed and Jesus will even reach out to those who are outcasts from the rest of society It feels that more obvious learning can be taken away from some of the other stories of

The Challenges of beekeeping in Nigeria

Jesus’s healing, clarity that is not so present in the story of the paralysed man

In conclusion, the story of the paralysed man is unclear as it appears devoid of any concrete moral teaching. To come to this judgement I have examined the story closely to seek meaning and compared it to other more precise stories from the Bible To further corroborate my view it seems the many different meanings and interpretations that theologians have devised from this cryptic story throughout history perfectly illustrates that it lacks precision, a clear ‘life lesson’ or teaching.

Evelyn Smethurst, Abigail Schroeder, in partnership with Sudeep Miller, Viren Bhaika of Harrow School

There are several challenges to beekeeping in Nigeria, but the greatest ones are:

● Climate change, extreme climate events, habitat destruction

● Farmers using outdated techniques

● Economic instability

Climate change makes keeping bees difficult as increased droughts and floods damage keepers’ lifestyles and harm their bees (Resource CentreBees For Development, 2016). It also destroys vital plants that bees need to pollinate, consequently disrupting their pollination habits. This makes it riskier for farmers to successfully keep bees, which may potentially lead to them losing their livelihoods.

Farmers currently use outdated techniques which are not good for bees and cost too much. Farmers should use modern beekeeping techniques such as the Langstroth Technique, which involves separating boxes for different sects of bees to operate in their own way and a communal place to build the hive. This stands in opposition to traditional ones as the hives built are flimsy and cannot support a bee colony for long. Modern techniques allow beekeepers to check on their bee's welfare and honey production better than

conventional ones, thus increasing efficiency. Currently only 40% of Beekeepers in Nigeria use modern methods while 60% use traditional methods which contributes to poor health of their bees (citation). This situation could be improved by promoting education

Nigeria's economic instability also impedes the development of beekeeping. Currently 33% of Nigeria's Population live in extreme poverty. This represents 12.9% of the global population in extreme poverty (Oluwole, 2022), making it difficult for farmers to start their own businesses. For many, their only option is getting a loan. However, the criteria for a loan in Nigeria is unreachable for the majority, involving good credit scores and stable incomes, which many cannot provide. The government’s current solution for this is subsidising other businesses, particularly fossil-fuel-based businesses, that are detrimental to the environment

Economic Policies to Overcome the Challenges and

could be spread at conventions like the ongoing COP 27) to maintain and improve habitats and apicultural areas.

● Educating farmers to use modern beekeeping techniques: Government policies should be enacted to promote education, training and upgrading of beekeeping techniques.

● The Government should provide more accessible loans to support the development of beekeeping businesses.

Promote Beekeeping in Nigeria

In the previous section, the three main challenges to beekeeping were highlighted. This section summarises policies that might be employed to overcome these

● Climate Change Mitigation could be promoted through: Taxing carbon emission vehicles, signing up to commitments (this

To conclude, through all the tumult and uneasiness of the Nigerian Economy, beekeeping is a profession that is relatively stable and provides good business opportunities to those who do it well. However, just as with every business venture, there are challenges as a part of this process. If done right, the Nigerian beekeeping economy could be extremely profitable, leading to increased investment in healthcare infrastructure, amongst other benefits Importantly, beekeeping also fulfils another important role that is pollination. As beekeeping in Nigeria increases, the pollination capacity will increase supporting agriculture and efforts to maintain natural habitats in Nigeria.

The importance of flexibility: the coaching leadership style in the 21st Century Nikita Pienaar

Qualities which are often taken to define a good leader include vision and ability to delegate. However, these arguments no longer stand. In order to thrive in the fast-paced, technical business environment of the 21st century, leaders must adopt a coaching leadership style that places values like teamwork, support and cooperation at the forefront of their approach. One of the most important values within this style is flexibility; an ability to change and look forward, armed with the emotional stamina to abandon the past in order to anticipate, not extrapolate

Different times have prioritised different traits in leaders meaning a successful leader is adaptable first and foremost in order to acclimate to new social environments.Whilst some changes are gradual, others require fast adapting and open

minded leaders to act After Covid 19 it is estimated 92% of people will want to work remotely at least 1 day per week with 80% looking to work 3 days remotely. Businesses that fail to offer flexible working will lose employees and develop a negative work environment with employees feeling unhappy that the company has not adapted which in turn will negatively affect productivity and efficiency.

Furthermore, with the rise of movements like BLM and #MeToo, more than ever, businesses must be sensitive to social views Les Wexner, former CEO of lingerie brand Victoria’s Secret, failed to notice the shift in demand to body positive and inclusive clothing by the young female demographic and continued to advertise using unhealthily thin models. Whilst this brand image was what popularised the company in the 90s and early

2000s, it almost brought it down in the late 2010’s However, when Wexner resigned and a new creative team was brought in, the company successfully rebranded to meet demand rather than try and shape it.

The success in this strategy is shown in their profits with having turned over $386 064 bn in 2019 However, his employees have suffered because of this with reports of work injuries, low pay, strict discipline systems accompanied by numerous documentaries appearing about the company's poor workforce treatment. The unethical yet successful business model prompts the question of profit at what cost?

A logical conclusion to be drawn here is that a good leader is one who tailors their business and employees to best provide for their customers, one like Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon Bezos, who provides unmatched customer service, describes Amazon's values by saying “We're not competitor obsessed, we're customer obsessed. We start with what the customer needs and we work backwards”.

Fracking! Dream or disaster?

Yasmeen Chishti, Nikita Pienaar and Ingrid Chan

What is fracking?

Fracking is a chemical process used to extract oil and gas from shale rock reserves. The process involves drilling either horizontally or vertically into the earth’s surface. Using slickwater, a high pressure mixture of water, sand and thickening agents, the gas from the rock layer underneath the earth's surface can be extracted. This gas produced can be separated into hydrocarbons and used as natural gas and oil for domestic needs. The diagram below reveals the process of shale gas formation during fracking

Ultimately, though, Amazon's unsustainable actions have led to projections saying that the company could run out of its workforce in 2 years due to the incredibly high staff turnover rate of roughly 150% each year A good leader must therefore strive to achieve sustainable profits which can be created by a healthy and positive environment for employees done most effectively through the coaching leadership style. This nuanced style incorporates values from a supportive and direct leadership approach, promoting building rapport and team spirit so that as a group, people can work together to achieve the most whilst leaving the leader in a position of respect and authority.

The process can also be broken down into 7 clear steps. First oil companies have to clear a rig site, this must be legally cleared and land set up in place to be employed for fracking. Then the drill rig is brought to the location and it’s time to drill Next comes cementing and testing to ensure the pipe is impermeable for the production of natural gas to

occur Now that the oil and natural gas has been trapped in the rock, using specialised instruments it becomes unlocked. The fracking fluid is then pumped at high pressure through thin cracks in the shale rock to allow for the oil and gas to be extracted. After all the oil and natural gas has been produced, it can be stored and used for household needs. In some countries the drilling land must be returned to its previous state, in order for it to be re-used by individuals.

Economic costs of fracking

Huge amounts of water must be transported to the fracking site which has high environmental costs This water, pumped into the rocks, can cause small tremors This causes concern amongst locals because these slight movements can cause earthquakes in the future. In the long term, this will have a huge economic impact as earthquakes can cause serious damage to infrastructure.

By resuming fracking, campaigners are worried that there will be less investment into green energy sources. In the long term this will mean combating climate change is harder and people will be even more reliant on non-renewable energy. Anti-fracking campaigners are concerned about spills which can contaminate groundwater supplies Cleaning contaminated water is often so expensive that it is rarely attempted and the water goes to waste. This can lead to the need for temporary water replacement which is also very costly.

In terms of healthcare costs, fracking can have a huge impact. Toxic substances from fracking fluid and wastewater as well as pollution from trucks, machinery and the wells themselves have been

linked to a number of health concerns Workers have been warned that they are at risk of developing lung disease silicosis from inhalation of silica dust at fracking sites. Air pollution from gas drilling in Arkansas’ Fayetteville Shale region imposed estimated public health costs of more than $10 million in 2008. Ultimately, fracking strains infrastructure and public resources and these maintenance costs often fall on taxpayers.

Economic benefits of fracking

However bad fracking seems to the environment, it also comes with economic benefits Fracking would bring massive supplies of oil and gas from huge shale deposits As the UK is now in a cost of living crisis where families are unable to afford basic maintenance, fracking would allow gas prices to decrease, therefore would reduce the burden on families.

Deposits made through fracking can also increase the energy security of the UK and increase our ability to generate electricity, power vehicles, and heat homes for the current generation and the generations to come. Just 10% of the gas deposit in Lancashire can supply 50 years worth of current UK gas demand This would also allow the UK to export some of the gas to other countries, increasing its GDP

As human resources are needed to frack gas and oil from shale deposits, there would be more jobs available for job seekers, which would be beneficial both to these individuals and the economy as a whole. As these people’s disposable incomes rise, they are able to increase their consumption, which may in turn boost GDP.

Feature stories: the 2022 US Midterm Elections

● What are the Midterms and what are the key issues?

● What happens if Republicans gain control of the House and the Senate?

● Why does the President’s Party lose the Midterms?

● How crucial was the Dobbs Decision towards the results of the 2022 midterms?

● Why is there a runoff election in Georgia?

● The Governor elections

What are the Midterms and what are the key issues?

Niamh Mulligan

Earlier this November marked the last midterm elections to have occurred since Donald Trump’s second year as president in 2018. While the US presidential elections are widely publicised and occur once every four years, the midterm elections take place 2 years into a presidential term and can have just as big an impact on the outcome of US politics. Many different elections take place during the midterms but they focus on the two chambers of Congress; the House of Representatives and the Senate The electorate vote for state representatives in both groups and winners of the elections are selected via popular vote, as opposed to the electoral college system used in Presidential elections. House of Representatives are elected biennially - for two year terms - so all 435 seats are voted on during the midterms, however the Senate elections are staggered on 6 year terms, meaning a third of the 100 seats, typically 33 or 34, are up for the electorate to decide.

These elections are crucial as while many would imagine the President to retain ultimate power over the political system, in many ways this is not the case, as a president's power is limited through a series of checks and balances established in the Constitution, that means that power is balanced across all aspects of the political system Gary Nordlinger, professor of politics at George Washington University, claims that “Whoever controls the House or the Senate controls the agenda”. This is because the majority party determines who leads important congressional committees and thus a president’s ability to accomplish his agenda is partially determined by whether his party controls the two houses of

Congress. Collectively, both the House and the Senate have to pass a bill before it becomes law. Additionally, all legislative power is vested in Congress, meaning that it is the only part of the Government that can make new laws or change existing laws. Due to this, the elections will give voters an opportunity to indirectly express their views on Biden’s presidency and the current direction of the country, as very often they are considered a referendum on the first two years of a p

There are several key issues in US politics that will be massively affected by the reshaping of Congress, most notably, this election could have a large impact on abortion rights across the country Both parties have already proposed new national laws to implement if they win control, in response to the Supreme Court overturning Roe v Wade in June and therefore overturning constitutionally protected abortion rights. While Republicans have proposed a national ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, the Democrats have pledged to uphold women's rights to have an abortion. Overall, these midterms will be crucial to the outcome of US politics for the next coming years, and is definitely an election to keep an eye on.

The House and the Senate - Why did the Republicans underperform?

Ingrid Chan

A ‘red wave ’ was predicted due to voters being increasingly upset over inflation and crime- even more so than about the state of democracy, voting rights and the decision to end federal protection for abortions- and that they planned to vote against the party that is currently in power, hence the ‘red wave ’ prediction, and the party in power would historically lose a number of seats during the m a ri

However, the overturn of Roe v Wade (1973) proved to be a defining issue to the Midterms, overturning the predicted ‘red wave ’ . It encouraged more young people and women to show up and vote, with newly registered women making up ⅔ of the total the newly registered voters, as “ you cannot have half of the population have their body autonomy put under threat and not expect it to be mobilising”, said Heidi Sieck, the CEO and co-founder of #VoteProChoice

Why were all 435 seats in the House up for re-election but only 36 Senate seats?

Terms for the House of Representative are only 2 years, while a usual term for a Senator is 6 years, divided by 3 classes. As this year is the third class, 34 Senate seats should be up for grabs, with two special elections happening in California, currently held by an interim appointee, and Oklahoma, where the Senator announced that he would resign early at the end of the 117th United States Congress

W ntrol of the House and the Senate?

Ruby McKee

The midterm elections have determined that the Democrats have maintained control of the Senate, however, the Republicans have won a slim majority in the House of Representatives meaning a difficult time ahead in Congress. Now the House has been won by the Republicans, there are several actions they have announced they will take, including a number of investigations into the Biden administration. Specifically they would look into Hunter Biden’s business dealings in order to damage President Biden’s image; the withdrawal from Afghanistan as well as setting up a committee to investigate the political and economic influence of China on America. Since 2019 Republicans have continued to question Biden’s son's business dealings accusing him of using his father’s position for personal financial gain; not paying adequate taxation and lying about his drug use when applying to buy a gun; however, Hunter Biden has never been charged. In the case of a Republican

majority in the House of Representatives James Comer (a representative of Kentucky) has said they would aim to use subpoena powers to hold a hearing on the Biden family finances next year. The Republicans have also vowed to subpoena Dr Anthony Fauci in a hearing about his advisory role to Trump and Biden throughout the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Minority leader of the house, Kevin McCarthy, soon to be the new Speaker from January, has also said that the Republicans would create a committee dedicated to investigate the origins of the pandemic after the recent Senate Republican report that the virus began with a leak from a Chinese viral laboratory. McCarthy also stated that the Republicans would create a committee dedicated to investigate theft of intellectual property by China. He also announced that the first piece of legislation they would propose would be the “Commitment to

America'' agenda that aims to block funding for 87,000 IRS agents Since the removal of Republican representatives Marjorie Taylor Greene and Paul Gosar from their committee positions for violent and conspiratory statements, McCarthy said that the Republicans would retaliate by removing some leading Democrats from their committee positions as well. Further to this McCarthy said that there would be investigations into the “politicisation” of the Department of Justice, an issue that Republicans have consistently opposed throughout Biden’s presidency.

Conflict between the executive and legislative would be likely to follow as House Republicans are aiming for an impeachment of Biden and some of his top administration officials. As well as this it is

likely that immigration and unauthorised border crossings would become an even more contentious and highly debated topic in Congress. In response, Biden has vowed to work with Republicans if they do take control of the House and at a White House news conference said he understood the voters’ frustration despite a very competitive Democrat campaign.

Why does the President’s Party lose the Midterms?

Lara Glenn

History was not on the Democrats' side heading into the Midterm Elections. One of the most predictable outcomes of the Midterm Elections in American politics is that the President's party loses congressional seats. Since World War II, the President's party has lost an average of 26 House seats and four Senate seats during the Midterms For example, President Barack Obama's Democrats were "shellacked" in 2010, with the Republicans gaining 63 seats in the House A blue wave swept away President Donald Trump's Republicans in 2018, with Democrats taking control of both the House and the Senate. Due to the 'Midterm curse,' the Republican Party was predicted to make significant gains in their House and Senate races, resulting in a 'Red Wave’. The Democrats, however, have defied historical precedent as despite some losses, their loss was less severe than history predicted. In fact, they are poised to have one of the four best midterm elections for the party in control of the White House in the last century The Democrats have retained the Senate after winning key Senate races in Nevada and Arizona – a state that flipped blue in the 2020 Presidential election –

and are expected to keep any net House losses in the single digits.

When you look at the data, it is evident how rare this outcome is, especially when you take into account Biden's poor approval rating (44% in the exit polls) Since 1922, there have been three previous instances of the president’s party gaining (or losing no) Senate seats and losing fewer than 10 House seats in the president’s first midterm All of them – 1934, 1962 and 2002 – are thought to be monumental achievements for the president’s party and major exceptions to the rule, which suggests the party controlling the White House usually loses seats in a midterm. Furthermore, the Democrats have faced success even down to state level, with their candidates winning the Governorship in Maryland and Massachusetts from the Republican party. As a result of this, the President's party will have gained net governorships in a President's first midterm election for the first time since 1934

There are a variety of reasons for why the President’s Party loses seats during Midterms so regularly. The first is a ‘ surge and decline’ in voter turnout. The typical voter from the opposition party is more likely to vote in a midterm election than the average voter from the winning party, when all other factors are equal. This concept is known as "differential turnout," and midterm elections consistently have lower turnout than presidential contests Another reason is that in politics, animosity is a formidable motivator to vote, so

individuals who are against the party in power are more likely to show up and voice their dissatisfaction with their current situation. Furthermore, people of colour and young voters, who usually vote Democratic, are less likely to participate in non-presidential elections, therefore this is particularly harmful for a Democratic president in office. Finally, the "presidential penalty" - which could be interpreted broadly as a referendum on the party in power - is where some voters change their minds and cast ballots against the president's party, and is arguably the most persuasive reason for the midterm curse Switching sides may be motivated by the concept of "balancing" in which a small but significant portion of the electorate votes against the White House party as a check on its power. These highlight some of the reasons why the President’s Party always loses seats at the Midterm Elections, therefore Biden and the Democrats’ unusual successes in the Midterm Elections are ones for the record books.

Katie Low Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization was decided on the 24th of June 2022. This decision led to the overturning of Roe v Wade (1973) and Planned Parenthood v Casey (1992) c i i b th iti d ti l

Democrats will be able to hold the senate having 50 seats (the Vice-President, Kamala Harris, having the deciding vote(. But how crucial was the Dobbs decision in the democratic victory?

One of the most powerful forces in political science is this idea of what they call thermostatic public opinion, which is that voters really tend to punish dramatic policy change. This is one of the big reasons why generally midterms go very poorly for the party that controls the presidency. However as the Supreme Court is currently dominated by conservatives in a 6:3 split, many voters choose to punish them and their anti-abortion stance rather than the presidency. The thing that is very unusual about this cycle is that Republicans managed to enact a radical unpopular policy change despite not controlling the presidency or the Congress That allowed Democrats to campaign as the party of the

How crucial was the Dobbs Decision towards the results of the 2022 midterms?

After a crucial race in Nevada, Democratic US senator Catherine Cortez Masto has beaten Republican challenger Adam Laxalt, meaning the

status quo in a way that was both historically unusual and quite powerful

However due to the close call of the race, was Dobbs the most crucial factor behind voting behaviour or was it another factor? Consumer prices went up 8.3 % in August compared to the same month last year. While Democrats argue that inflation is linked to global events, such as the war in Ukraine, and coronavirus pandemic-related supply chain issues, Republicans say government spending, which has accelerated under Biden, is to blame

Why is there a runoff election in Georgia?

Ayna Sidhu

The U S Senate race in Georgia has not seen a candidate receive 50% of the vote and so the Senate candidates, Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker, will take part in a runoff election on the 6th of December.

There are 2 senators for every state in the USA; in the 2022 midterms 36 of these senate seats were up for re-election. This means the seat of the senior Senator for Georgia, Jon Ossoff, a Democrat, is not up for re-election. Therefore no matter the result of this runoff there will still be 1 Democrat senator for Georgia until the next Senate election in 2024

Runoff elections are a second election held to determine a winner when no candidate in the first election met the required threshold for victory. Runoff elections can be held for both primary elections and general elections. In the U.S. only 10 states require runoff elections to be held for primary elections and only 2 require them to be held for general elections. Voting and election rules are set by the states rather than by the Constitution or the Federal government.

The Senate race is in the category of a general election. Georgia and Louisiana are the only states which require a runoff to be held in general elections if no candidate receives a majority (50%) of the vote. In every other state, a candidate can win a general election with a plurality of the vote. In Georgia, Herschel Walker received 48.52% and Raphael Warnock 49.42% of the first vote therefore both will go into the runoff next month where the winner will be decided by whomever receives the most overall votes, there is no set threshold like a 50% majority This is the 2nd time Warnock has been involved in a runoff for the Senate seat Two years ago, he defeated then Senator Kelly Loeffler, a Republican, in a runoff race

The procedure of Georgia's runoff election was adopted after the Emancipation Proclamation freed enslaved people in Southern states. Runoffs were seen as additional blocks against Black people voting. According to the U.S. Vote Foundation, the practice of runoffs is seen as having "Jim Crow roots”

The Governor elections

Hannah Bonye

In the US the Governor is the representative responsible for implementing their elected state’s laws and managing the state’s executive branch and programmes in place in the state. They can sign off or veto legislation that has gone through the senate and recommend legislation to the General Assembly During the 2022 midterm elections there were 36 Governor seats open to take and the Democrats have achieved unexpected successes, winning two key Republican seats in Massachusetts and Maryland, with Massachsett also electing its first female governor.

Given the poor predictions made for the Democrat party, they have fared surprisingly well in the Governor race which is indicative of voter dissatisfaction over the overturning of Roe vs Wade early this year. The Governor race was largely focused around this issue, as well as issues such as gun control The Democrat Michigan winner, Governor Whitman, based her campaign around reinstating the countrywide right to abortion, demonstrating how key the issue was to the

Governor race. Voters who cited abortion as their most important issue, voted 76% Democratic demonstrating its significance.

Equally there were some Republican victories with Georgia’s Democrat Governor Stacy Abrams being ousted as well as a strong victory for Florida Governor Ron Desantis, an expected 2024 presidential candidate, with 60% of the vote state wide. However overall, although Republicans as expected have had strong success, the Governor race in the 2022 midterms has produced some unexpected Democratic victories.

THE NOTTING HILL CRITIC TEAM Autumn 2022

Ingrid Chan, Year 13 – Contributor, Editor

Nikita Pienaar, Year 13– Contributor, Editor

Keerit Dhillon, Year 13 - Contributor, Editor

Keisha Iyaloo, Year 13 – Contributor, Editor

Bella Coles Gazzoli, Year 13 – Contributor

Zara Talbot, Year 13 – Contributor

Aniya Kapoor, Year 9 – Contributor

Neve Pearson, Year 9 – Contributor

Evelyn Smerhurst, Year 10 – Contributor

Abigail Schroeder, Year 10 – Contributor

Yasmeen Chishti, Year 13 –Contributor, Illustrator

Niamh Mulligan, Year 13 – Contributor

Ruby McKee, Year 13 – Contributor

Lara Glenn, Year 13 – Contributor

Katie Low, Year 13 – Contributor

Ayna Sidhu, Year 13 – Contributor

Hannah Bonye, Year 13 – Contributor

Mr Cryer, Head of Economics - Editor in Chief