RISING TIDES: ASEA LEVEL RISE AND RESILIENCE IN WEST OAKLAND collaboration with the West Oakland Environmental Indicators Project 1/10
INTRODUCTION
Educate and engage the West Oakland community in a discussion about sea level rise, how it will affect them, and what they as individuals can do about it.
PROJECT GOALS
Give residents a framework to understand
Analyze policies currently addressing sea
sea level rise
level rise in West Oakland
Illustrate possible future scenarios and
Provide examples of resilience in West
their impacts on the lives of residents
Oakland and innovative sea level rise adaptation and community engagement strategies from other cities
Raise awareness about who will be
Discuss possible adaptation strategies for
impacted by sea level rise and how
West Oakland to facilitate a conversation among residents about which strategies are appropriate for their community
Rising concentrations of green house gases have triggered global warming. Increased temperatures are melting the polar ice caps and expanding the ocean. Sea levels around the world are rising, putting many coastal cities at risk.
CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL WARMING
ICE MELTING
SEA LEVEL RISE +55 in
400
CO2 ppm
300 180
+8 in 650,000 years ago
Today
CO2 concentrations are higher than they have been for the past 650,000 years.
SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS
1880 Sea ice coverage has declined 13% each decade for the last three decades.
4 ft. Storm Surge High Tide
2014
2100
Global sea level is projected to increase significantly over the next century.
Current
Sea level rise is the incremental increase in global sea level. Current projections by the Pacific Institute estimate that by 2100 sea level will increase by 55 inches. A storm surge is a sudden temporary increase in sea level. Severe storms are projected to become more frequent on the West Coast.
4 ft. Storm Surge 55 in. Increase High Tide
2100
UC Berkeley [IN]City 2014 Students: Aidan Smith/ Allan Kapoor/ Prema Krishnan/ Rodrigo Guerra/ Ximena Uribe// Instructors: Fernando Burga/ Leah Stockstrom / Nicola Szibbo/ Eric Anderson
RISING TIDES: ASEA LEVEL RISE AND RESILIENCE IN WEST OAKLAND collaboration with the West Oakland Environmental Indicators Project
2/10
HOW IS OUR CITY CHANGING?
A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
West Oakland’s landscape was originally dominated by wetlands. As the city grew, the wetlands and the bay were filled in. These same low-lying areas will flood in the future as the sea level increases.
1800 The city is settled at the waterfront
1860 Oakland begins to expand into the wetlands
1990’s Aerial view of the port
1890 The wetlands are filled in to accommodate growth
1990 The bay is filled in for port and army base construction
SEA LEVEL RISE IN THE BAY AREA
SEA LEVEL RISE IN WEST OAKLAND
Year 2100
Year 2100
Wetlands
Urban area
High Tide + 55 in. Increase + 4 ft. Storm Surge
High Tide + 55 in. Increase + 4 ft. Storm Surge
270,000 people at risk of flooding 5,000 people at risk of flooding in West Oakland $86 billion in property damage $21 billion in property damage in Alameda County 3,100 acres of wildlife habitat destroyed
UC Berkeley [IN]City 2014 Students: Aidan Smith/ Allan Kapoor/ Prema Krishnan/ Rodrigo Guerra/ Ximena Uribe// Instructors: Fernando Burga/ Leah Stockstrom / Nicola Szibbo/ Eric Anderson
RISING TIDES: ASEA LEVEL RISE AND RESILIENCE IN WEST OAKLAND collaboration with the West Oakland Environmental Indicators Project
HOW WILL JACK LONDON SQUARE BE AFFECTED?
3/10
A COMMERCIAL CENTER
Location in West Oakland
Current
Site Map
Year 2100 - High Tide + 55 in. Increase + 4 ft. Storm Surge
PROJECTED WATER LEVEL
DEMOGRAPHICS
2,833 White (81%) $149,539
people per square mile
median household income
WhiteBlack/African (81%) American (8%) Black/African American (8%)
Asian (7%)
Asian (7%)
Other (4%)
Other (4%)
Ground Level Elevation 5ft.// Projected Water Level 2.6 ft Year 2100 - High Tide + 55 in. Increase + 4 ft. Storm Surge
LOCAL ASSETS
Local Fairs (Farmer’s Market)
SEA LEVEL RISE IMPACTS
9,000+
square feet of retail lost
Cultural Events (Dancing under the Stars)
3M+ square feet
of buildings lost
350+
direct jobs lost
Recreation and Tours (Presidential Yacht Tours)
Commercial Loss
UC Berkeley [IN]City 2014 Students: Aidan Smith/ Allan Kapoor/ Prema Krishnan/ Rodrigo Guerra/ Ximena Uribe// Instructors: Fernando Burga/ Leah Stockstrom / Nicola Szibbo/ Eric Anderson
RISING TIDES: ASEA LEVEL RISE AND RESILIENCE IN WEST OAKLAND collaboration with the West Oakland Environmental Indicators Project
HOW WILL MANDELA GATEWAY BE AFFECTED?
4/10
A TRANSIT HUB
Location in West Oakland
Current
Site Map
Year 2100 - High Tide + 55 in. Increase + 4 ft. Storm Surge
PROJECTED WATER LEVEL
DEMOGRAPHICS
8,497 White (30%) median $32,827 household income
people per square mile
Black/African American (49%) White (30%)
Asian (11%)
Black/African American (49%)
Other (10%) Asian (11%) Other (10%)
Ground Level Elevation 8ft// Projected Water Level 0.6 ft Year 2100 - High Tide + 55 in. Increase + 4 ft. Storm Surge
LOCAL ASSETS
AC TRANSIT
30,000+ people from the
5 AC transit lines
area use BART every week
SEA LEVEL RISE IMPACTS
168
total units lost
46
public housing units lost
21,000
square feet of retail lost
Nutritious Food Cooperative
$52M
investment lost
UC Berkeley [IN]City 2014 Students: Aidan Smith/ Allan Kapoor/ Prema Krishnan/ Rodrigo Guerra/ Ximena Uribe// Instructors: Fernando Burga/ Leah Stockstrom / Nicola Szibbo/ Eric Anderson
RISING TIDES: ASEA LEVEL RISE AND RESILIENCE IN WEST OAKLAND collaboration with the West Oakland Environmental Indicators Project 5/10
HOW WILL WOOD STREET BE AFFECTED? A FUTURE DEVELOPMENT
Location in West Oakland
Current
Site Map
Year 2100 - High Tide + 55 in. Increase + 4 ft. Storm Surge
PROJECTED WATER LEVEL
DEMOGRAPHICS
1,100 White (30%) median $45,539 household income Black/African American (49%)
people per square mile
White (30%)
Asian (7%)
Black/African American (49%)
Other (14%) Asian (7%) Other (14%)
Ground Level Elevation 5ft// Projected Water Level 3.6 ft Year 2100 - High Tide + 55 in. Increase + 4 ft. Storm Surge
LOCAL ASSETS
16th Street Train Station
Raimondi Park
Future Urban Development
SEA LEVEL RISE IMPACTS 0N FUTURE DEVELOPMENT
2,300+
residents displaced
3M+ square feet
of new buildings lost
11,100+
new jobs lost
900,000+
square feet of retail lost
7M+ square feet
of industrial land use lost
UC Berkeley [IN]City 2014 Students: Aidan Smith/ Allan Kapoor/ Prema Krishnan/ Rodrigo Guerra/ Ximena Uribe// Instructors: Fernando Burga/ Leah Stockstrom / Nicola Szibbo/ Eric Anderson
RISING TIDES: ASEA LEVEL RISE AND RESILIENCE IN WEST OAKLAND collaboration with the West Oakland Environmental Indicators Project
WHO WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY SEA LEVEL RISE?
VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE EVENTS
Renting Born Outside U.S. Poor Fitness
Unemployed
Low Education
Pregnant Low Income
VULNERABILITY FACTORS
Over 65 or Under 18
Imprisoned
Far from Permeable Surfaces
No Access to Vehicle Ethnic Minority
12 residents
in areas of low vulnerability
Vulnerability Score by Census Block
567 residents
Low Medium
in areas of medium vulnerability
High
4,650 residents
Area covered by 40 in SLR Area covered by 55 in SLR
in areas of high vulnerability
POVERTY STATUS
VULNERABLE AGES
Percentage of Population Below Poverty Line by Census Tract
Total Number of Individuals <5 or >65 Years Old by Census Tract
0-10
9-25
10-25
26-65
25-30
66-100
30-35
101-174
35+
175-275
Area covered by 40 in. SLR
Area covered by 40 in SLR
Area covered by 55 in. SLR
Area covered by 55 in SLR
32% of residents are below the poverty line
1,627 residents are younger than 5 or older than 65
AFRICAN AMERICAN POPULATION
HOMEOWNERS
Percentage of African-American Population by Census Block
Percentage of Owner-Occupied Housing Units by Census Block
0-20
0-15
20-30
15-20
30-50
20-25
50-60
25-35
60+
35+
Area covered by 40 in SLR
Area covered by 40 in SLR
Area covered by 55 in SLR
Area covered by 55 in SLR
48% of residents are African American
6/10
26% of households own their home
UC Berkeley [IN]City 2014 Students: Aidan Smith/ Allan Kapoor/ Prema Krishnan/ Rodrigo Guerra/ Ximena Uribe// Instructors: Fernando Burga/ Leah Stockstrom / Nicola Szibbo/ Eric Anderson
RISING TIDES: ASEA LEVEL RISE AND RESILIENCE IN WEST OAKLAND collaboration with the West Oakland Environmental Indicators Project 7/10
HOW WILL SEA LEVEL RISE AFFECT US?
INFRASTRUCTURAL IMPACTS Oakland’s Sanitary Sewer System
3 stakeholders 400,000 customers 50-100 years old & clay 1,000 miles of sanitary sewers lines
An Overtaxed System
Sewage Collection System
30% of the system rehabilitated
+400% of Capacity Inflow & Infiltration 100% of Capacity Sewage
EBMUD
During Peak Wet Weather Conditions
31,000 structures “The collection systems are quite deteriorated in the city...We think there is going to be a lot more water coming into the plant through infow and infiltration.” -EBMUD communications officer
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
Toxic Mobilization & Exposure
700 miles in need of
maintenance Storm Drainage System
30% of storm drains
in need of repair
100% of the storm
drainage structures in need of repair
During the 1997-98 El Nino parts of West Oakland had streets flooded for days on end.
Contaminated Sites At Risk of Flooding
83% of West Oakland
residents live next to a potentially contaminated site
Contamination Comparison Among Cities West Oakland Oakland San Leandro
“[AMCO] left so much lead and other toxins in the soil that...after the flood, city workers came in and covered lawns with tarpaper gravel and new dirt to avoid exposure to lead.” Barbara Grady (New American Media)
ECONOMIC IMPACTS Port of Oakland
Emeryville Berkeley Albany 0
10 20 30 # of contamination sites / sq mi
40
Green dots represent possibly contaminated sites
Challenges Facing the Port
5th busiest container port
Primary Vulnerability: Supporting Infrastructure
in the U.S.
29% of all California exports
flow through port
$223 million state and local tax revenue
5,800 jobs are created by the port in Oakland alone
70% of goods 30% of goods • More frequent, longer-lasting storm flooding • Permanent inundation by tides • Elevated groundwater levels and salt-water intrusion
transported via road
transported via rail
Nearby ports lack sufficient capacity to compensate for a signficant loss of activity in the Port of Oakland.
UC Berkeley [IN]City 2014 Students: Aidan Smith/ Allan Kapoor/ Prema Krishnan/ Rodrigo Guerra/ Ximena Uribe// Instructors: Fernando Burga/ Leah Stockstrom / Nicola Szibbo/ Eric Anderson
RISING TIDES: ASEA LEVEL RISE AND RESILIENCE IN WEST OAKLAND collaboration with the West Oakland Environmental Indicators Project
8/10
HOW IS OUR COMMUNITY RESILIENT?
POLICIES ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE IN WEST OAKLAND Oakland Energy and Climate Action Plan (2012)
West Oakland Specific Plan (2014)
Primary goal is climate change mitigation through decreased emissions, not adaptation or resilience predicted scenarios
Prioritizes economic development and ignores issues of environmental justice and social equity
Opportunity Area 1
Opportunity Area 2
Opportunity Area 3
Opportunity Area 4
Sea Level Rise and Opportunity Areas in the WOSP
S E U G A LE S ORS B H G I E
HOSPIT ALS
SPO R T
Hundreds of residents attend televised hearings to protest rebuilding freeway
West Oakland deteriorates as isolation leads to divestment and blight
10,000 visits by residents are made to the Caltrans office during the planning phase
In 1989 the Loma Prieta earthquake causes the freeway to collapse
Fighting Diesel Pollution Challenges Diesel trucks servicing the Port of Oakland routinely drive through residential areas of West Oakland Emissions from trucks contribute to poor air quality Children is West Oakland are 7 times more likely to be hospitalized for asthma than the rest of Oakland
Multiple environmental and civil rights lawsuits filed by neighborhood groups
Resilience WOEIP founded as a resident-led, communitybased environmental justice organization WOEIP engages in community participatory research to prove the negative effects of diesel trucks in West Oakland Margaret Gordon becomes first West Oakland resident on the Port Commission
SCHOOLS
In 1957 the Cypress Freeway is built through West Oakland without consulting residents
L GOVER M E LOCA N T
Resilience
INDIVIDUAL
CHURCH
HOW WEST OAKLAND COMMUNITY HAS ALREADY BEEN RESILIENT?
LY
C O N
Institutional Ties
FAMI
OR
FR I E
CULTURAL CAPITAL Knowledge, Education, Traditions, Historic Roots
M O C
Y B T I ASE N U D M
GS
Community Ties
PO
EPARTMENT D E LIC
IONS
Who do we rely on?
AT EG
SOCIAL FABRIC
COMMUNITY RESILIENCE
Rerouting the Cypress Freeway Challenges
3
Community resilience is the capacity to adapt to changing conditions and regain functionality after a crisis. It is built through the empowerment of individuals and the strengthening of the bonds at various levels of interaction that make up a community’s social fabric.
Social Ties
ECONOMIC CAPITAL Money, Financial Stability, Property
2
GR
SOCIAL CAPITAL Collaboration, Trust, Networks, Social Tools
Three out of four development opportunity areas in locations will be covered by sea level rise within 50 to 100 years
S
COMMUNITY RESILIENCE
Fails to address the commitment to integrate resilience and adaptation strategies into city planning documents as outlined in the Energy and Climate Action Plan
N
Only commitment is to “seek resources” to integrate climate change adaptation and community resilience strategies into future city planning and policy documents
4
ND
Possible adaptation measures are suggested for later discussion, but not formerly adopted
1
Victories Freeway rebuilt around West Oakland Caltrans pressured into cleanup of toxic sites discovered during construction $13 million in state highway funds go to Mandela Parkway, a boulevard following the path of the original freeway
Victories Port of Oakland now requires diesel trucks built before 2003 to be retrofitted with particulate filters Trucks not allowed to idle in residential areas A 2012 UC Berkeley study shows a 50% decrease in diesel particulates emitted from trucks entering the Port of Oakland
UC Berkeley [IN]City 2014 Students: Aidan Smith/ Allan Kapoor/ Prema Krishnan/ Rodrigo Guerra/ Ximena Uribe// Instructors: Fernando Burga/ Leah Stockstrom / Nicola Szibbo/ Eric Anderson
RISING TIDES: ASEA LEVEL RISE AND RESILIENCE IN WEST OAKLAND collaboration with the West Oakland Environmental Indicators Project 9/10
WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM OTHER CITIES? ADAPTATION PLANNING PROCESS
Boston
Los Angeles
Seattle
New York
Rotterdam
Research
Implementation
Planning
Community Engagement
Lessons Learned
• Nominated local residents to serve on oversight committee • Committee reviews and vets proposed climate mitigation and adaptation measures • Committee designs the community engagement strategy
Survey and Assess Vulnerabilities
• Contracted a coalition of over 60 diverse environmental and environmental justice organizations • Coalition recommended strategies for wider community participation in climate action planning • Connected coalition groups with private funding
Rethink Our Relationship to Nature
• Directly addressed social equity and facilitated community engagement in the utility planning process • Planning staff required to attend workshops on institutionalized racism and environmental and social justice issues
Study and Assess Impacts on Resources
• Created a new office charged with coordinating implementation of NYC’s longterm development and sustainability plan and engaging the community in the process • Established an advisory board to build public support for the plan and assist the office
Survey and Assess Vulnerabilities
Dry floodproofing: sealants to prevent water from entering through walls
Elevation: lowest floor is above flood level
Wet Floodproofing: allows water to enter and exit
•
Anchor fuel tanks under homes to prevent spills & contamination
Backflow valve prevents sewer and drain backup
Over 50% of Boston’s housing units were built before 1940. Many are exceptionally vulnerable to flooding. Building codes have been adapted to address resiliency. •
• • •
The Los Angeles River was channelized to mitigate flooding. LA’s impervious surfaces hinder replenishment of the watershed. $1 Billion proposed project to restore three miles of river
• • •
•
•
Receives 90% of its energy from hydroelectric sources Irregular rainfall resulting from climate change could threaten energy and resource security. Study the impacts of climate change on resources
Emergency responders know the locations of officially designated assisted living, daycare and elder care centers. Unofficial centers need to be identified and monitored during extreme weather events.
Innovative Engineering Solutions
Dual recreational facility & water storage basin
Underground water storage facilities & parking garage
Floating settlements on Maasbommel River
UC Berkeley [IN]City 2014 Students: Aidan Smith/ Allan Kapoor/ Prema Krishnan/ Rodrigo Guerra/ Ximena Uribe// Instructors: Fernando Burga/ Leah Stockstrom / Nicola Szibbo/ Eric Anderson
RISING TIDES: ASEA LEVEL RISE AND RESILIENCE IN WEST OAKLAND collaboration with the West Oakland Environmental Indicators Project
WHICH STRATEGIES SHOULD WE PURSUE?
10/10
PROACTIVE STRATEGIES
REACTIVE STRATEGIES Prepare to manage a crisis
Prevent a crisis from occuring
Develop Early Warning Systems for Flooding • Gives residents more time to react to a crisis event • Expensive to ensure effectiveness of a system • Difficult to ensure warning is spread to individuals of all demographic groups Develop Evacuation, Response, and Recovery Planning • Builds community reactive resilience • Requires long-term multi-stakeholder engagement in the planning process • May be focused on more affluent and politically enfranchised areas Restrict Development in Areas That Will Be Affected • Protects human life and property • Difficult to enforce due to development pressure • May reduce future availability of low income housing Install Green Infrastructure • Manages water runoff naturally and reduces heat island effect • Expensive to install and maintain • Possible gentrification due to neighborhood improvement Preserve or Restore Wetlands • Acts as a buffer to absorb sea level rise and groundwater flooding • Habitat restoration and creation of public green space • Difficult to enforce due to development pressure Raise Existing Structures Above Future Sea Level • More effective than building seawalls in some cases • May prioritize minimizing economic loss rather than protecting vulnerable populations Integrate Sea Level Rise Predictions into Sewer Infrastructure • Can be integrated into new infrastructure improvements • May be focused on more affluent and politically enfranchised areas Build Protective Infrastructure • Protects structures and land that provide jobs, housing, and other services • May prioritize minimizing economic loss rather than protecting vulnerable populations Promote Home Insurance That Covers Water Damage • Builds economic resilience among local homeowners • Not affordable for especially vulnerable residents
DECIDE FOR YOURSELF
Which strategies will... ...protect the most vulnerable populations? The most property? ...be the most expensive? Inexpensive? ...require collective political action to achieve?
Further questions... Should we defend existing land or retreat to higher ground? How could sea level rise be seen as an opportunity for our community? What future do you envision for West Oakland?
UC Berkeley [IN]City 2014 Students: Aidan Smith/ Allan Kapoor/ Prema Krishnan/ Rodrigo Guerra/ Ximena Uribe// Instructors: Fernando Burga/ Leah Stockstrom / Nicola Szibbo/ Eric Anderson