Pace of Beef Cow Slaughter Hits Record High

by Susan Kelly, meatingplace.com

The pace of beef cow slaughter in July is the fastest recorded since USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) began reporting the data in 1986, the Economic Research Service said in a new Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report.

In addition to the rapid pace of cow slaughter, the weekday pace of federally inspected fed cattle slaughter in July is the fastest in over a decade, the report said.

Despite the strong slaughter figures, the outlook for 2022 beef production is forecast only slightly higher, to nearly 28.0 billion pounds, mainly due to higher expected cow and fed cattle slaughter in the second half that is partly offset by lower anticipated average carcass weights.

“Looking at the rest of the year, it is expected that beef cow slaughter will likely decline, but not below year-ago levels until early next year,” the report said.

Reaction to drought

Aggressive culling of beef cows in the first half of 2022 is likely based on producers’ reaction to pasture conditions and increased operating costs and strong domestic wholesale beef cutout and lean trimming prices due to high domestic beef demand and record export sales. At the beginning of second-half 2022, drought conditions have intensified through July into August, particularly in the southern and central plains and the southeast.

2023 production

For 2023, greater expected fed cattle marketings and heavier expected carcass weights more than offset a reduction in anticipated cow slaughter to raise projected beef production by 325 million pounds, to 26.3 billion. The larger increase in marketings next year is due to the prospect of more cattle placed in feedlots in second-half 2022 and first-half 2023. Expectations for higher calf placements in late 2022 are based on the likelihood that poor pasture conditions will move cattle into feedlots at a quicker pace. In early 2023, placements from the 2022 calf crop are expected.

More cows were removed from the forecast in 2023 based on the expected increase in cow slaughter in second-half 2022. Coupled with relatively steady feed costs, this tipped the scale slightly toward heavier expected carcasses next year, the report said. ▫