The Nature of 2040 by nourhan

40 20 F O RE AT U N E TH FORESIGHT STUDIO -SFI, OCAD U Bergur Ebbi | Jennifer McDougall | Nourhan Hegazy | Prateeksha Singh

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Project Ambassador Jode Roberts The David Suzuki Foundation OCADU Professors & Faculty Foresight Studio Suzanne Stein Stuart Candy SFI Graduate Director Lenore Richards OCADU Staff & Facilities Liam Crockard Roger A. Galvez Design and Layout Nourhan Hegazy

ÂŠNourhan Khaled Hegazy, Jennifer McDougall, Prateeksha Singh, Bergur Ebbi Benediktsson. Toronto, 2015

Contents Project Overview Page 6 Trend Scanning Page 10 Drivers Page 32 Scenarios Page 38 Time Machine Page 58 Implications & Strategies Page 64 Conclusion Page 84 References Page 86

This dossier is a product of the Foresight Studio course which is a part of the Strategic Foresight and Innovation Program at OCAD University. Students tackled the courseâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s projects in teams and each team was designated an ambassador to work with outside the faculty. The summary found here is the comprehensive work of the team which worked with the David Suzuki Foundation and its ambassador Jode Roberts.

Sc an ni ng

D riv er s Sc en ar io s Ti m e

ne St

Chapter | Section

Process into the Nature of 2040 5

INTRODUCTION

Introduction

The focus of the foresight study laid out in this dossier are the touchpoints between two major global issues. The first is the environmental movement which is soon reaching the crossroads where the early pioneers will hand the message over to younger generations who have never lived in a world oblivious of environmental concerns. The second major issue is urbanization which has reached the essential point where more than half of the global population live in urban areas, coming up from a third in the 1960â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s when many of todayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s environmental concerns were first raised. The area where rising urbanization meets an ever demanding need for environmental awareness poses challenges. To live in cities is an obstruction from experiencing nature directly but is not in itself a hindrance for an informed and responsible relationship with nature. This point of focus was not chosen to reveal it to be contradictory since urbanization and environmental awareness are in no way opposite components in their essence. On the contrary urbanization along with new technologies equally bring opportunities of greater control over manâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s influence and mark on the environment and that influence can both be achieved by highly organized governments or through the means of organically sprung grassroots movements.

Framing An important factor in how the future will turn out is who’s going to lead the environmental movement.

Urbanization is a growing driver.

and how it affects people’s lives and

with its policies or other top-bottom

According to the World Health Or-

their relationship with nature, rais-

decision makers like big corporations

ganization the global urban popula-

ing the ever philosophical question

with their emphasis on consumerism

tion is expected to have a 1.5- 2%

whether technology and man made

or will it be more self-organized and

annual growth in the next fifteen

development goes against nature or

grassroots lead?

years. What’s not as obvious is how

if the two can or should compensate

urbanization will play out. Will it

each other.

bring people longer and fuller lives or

The research question put forward is: How might our relationship with

detach them from many of life’s won-

Context Framing:

nature change in an urban context by

ders that can only be found where

There is no dispute whether urban-

2040?

ization as a driver will continue. The

How might our relationship

development has not laid down its plow? In order to assess question of this sort the focus has to glide to people’s relationship with nature: what it’s built on, the fruits it brings and if it can be evolved and managed or whether it is subject only to the elements of nature itself. While exploring urbanization in terms of housing development, traffic congestion and other plain factors the issue also deals with the rise of technology, especially connectivity

question is rather whether urbanites can steer further urbanization towards a more environmentally friendly route or if it will continue to follow the the same trajectory as it did throughout much of the 20th century with increased urban sprawl

with nature change in an urban context by 2040? The timeframe of 25 years was chosen because it is approximately a generation in to the future from today.

and congestion.

It might not sound like a long time

An equally important factor in how

city-dwellers, the fast evolution of

the future will turn out is who’s gonna lead the environmental movement in the future. Will it be the government

but given the global increase rate of certain tech-industries and the possibility of major climate change events, urbanites’ relationship with nature

Introduction

â&#x20AC;&#x153;The Future Will Belong To The Nature-Smartâ&#x20AC;? - Richard Louv

could be vastly different in 2040 than

the interaction between them, can

work was made with guidance from

it is now.

shape the world in various ways.

an ambassador from an environmen-

To produce relevant scenarios itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s

tal organization it was decided that

Project Methodology

important to identify key drivers

the strategies should be aimed at

The methodology used is to first

or forces that concern the framing

that particular sector. The strategies

question. The methodology used is

therefore tackled the more evolved

a 2x2 matrix where highly relevant

question of: how can environmental

forces are attached to axes to create

organizations connect people with

the basis for four different scenarios.

nature?

gather information about the subject using a technique referred to as scanning. The process involves searching for current trends that are of importance to the issue and organizing them according to the STEEP classification system, which is an abbreviation for social, technological, environmental, economic and political trends. Of equal importance is to identify key drivers, which are elements that affect the trends and

The forces that were identified were urbanization and decision making as is further outlined in the intro to the scenario-chapter. The scenarios are then further drawn with the help of the trends from the scanning phase. The scenarios are the basis for

often have a longer lifespan.

proposed strategies. The aim of

The aim is to create scenarios of

ence or organization to make use of

possible futures using the trends as indicators on how they might turn out. The reason for multiple scenarios is because trends, and especially

the strategies is for a certain audithe scenarios in their current future plans. The strategy body of the work therefore narrowed the research question even further. Given that the

The global urban population is expected to have a 1.5- 2% annual growth in the next fifteen years. -The World Health Organization

TREND SCANNING

Tr e n d S c a n n i n g

Foresight Toolkit U.K. and The AC/UNU Millennium Project.

A trend is a general direction in which something is developing or changing. To qualify as a trend, a phenomenon must show a continuous direction of development for a significant period. Other developments are fluctuations that may have little long-term impact. Trends are characterised as moving in a direction such as more, the same, or less, though they may vary in certainty and consistency. The events can include social, technological, economic, environmental, political, and value-oriented changes (STEEP-V). Trends analysis is the key to creating powerful, robust scenario content. Basing scenario content on trends analysis ensures that they are: Plausible, Relevant, Divergent, Challenging

Social

Technological

Political

Economic

Values

Environmental

Nature Deficit Disorder [NDD] A call for a revolution in rewilding our children

SIGNALS

Last Child in the Woods Project Wild Thing Children and Nature Network The Wild Network

There is overwhelming evidence supporting the more virtually connected we are the more disconnected we become to our communities, with children among the most obviously affected (Sorrentino, 2014). According to experts, a lack of routine contact with nature may result in stunted academic and developmental growth in our young people (Louv, 2005). This unwanted side-effect of the electronic age is called Nature Deficit Disorder. The undercurrent of this trend is a large-scale reconnection with nature, a revolution of belonging, that is about cultivating new connections with the natural world. This ideology is only just starting to gain momentum among groups of individuals and organizations. Moreover, with the greatest fear of disconnection with nature being for children, this

powerful child-nature reunion is gaining world-wide attention. Implications: The ideology of getting more kids and people outside and reconnecting with nature is leaking into the way we conduct businesses, educate our young people and govern our society. There is a growing movement of organizations and individuals, working together, to champion and support connection with nature and wildness in young people (Crockett, 2014). These cross-industry collaborations are putting pressure on how the public and decision makers respond to its calls to action giving this revolution the ability to transcend previous environmental movements and reshape our world.

Tr e n d S c a n n i n g

“The Future Will Belong To The Nature-Smart,” - Richard Louv

Extrapolations: COUNTER TRENDS

Hyperconnectivity [S] Digital Technology [T] Virtual Reality [T] Connected Life [V]

In the next 10 or 20 years out, “the future will belong to the nature-smart,” as quoted by Richard Louv who coined the term Nature Deficit Disorder (Louv, 2005). New businesses, governance structures and communication technologies will likely be introduced to bring us closer to the direct experience with nature, with a focus on reconnecting our young people. By reconnecting with nature Louv predicts we can boost mental acuity and creativity, promote health and wellness, build smarter and more sustainable businesses, communities, and economies and ultimately strengthen.human bonds (Louv, 2005).

Hyperconnectivity The defining feature of contemporary society

SIGNALS

Smart Machines Mobile Technology Information Technology Internet of Things Transparency of Information

Hyperconnectivity is a defining feature of todayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s contemporary society, it marks a new cultural environment for all human behaviour (Swabey, 2014). Thanks to the Internet, mobile technology and soon the Internet of things, people, places, organisations and objects are linked together like never before. In the last 30 years, the internet and mobile technology have drastically increased the interconnectedness of society creating a whole lot of new issues and opportunities around increasing connectivity due to digitalization. The more we connect the more interconnected we become and therefore, the more interdependent we become. Those new interdependencies and interconnections create a lot of new challenges never imagined.

Implications: Hyperconnectivity is still evolving. Businesses are still adapting and must be sensitive to shifting social values and customer expectations. As technology grows rapidly, it creates a whole new set of rules. For businesses, this poses a challenge around predictability. It forces them to think more laterally about their products, services and business models if they are to survive. Taking advantage of this rapid growth, in unpredictable markets, creates a disadvantage. However, hyperconnectivity also provides an opportunity for businesses to be more authentic, to work with communities, to help define social impact and to help shape the shifting norms and values of consumers.

Tr e n d S c a n n i n g

As technology grows rapidly, it creates a whole new set of rules.

Extrapolations: COUNTER TRENDS

Cybercrime [P] Slow(er) Living [V]

Itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s not just humans joining the network. The number of smart machines like connected cars and wearable devices is expected to reach 26 billion by 2020 (Swabey, 2014). Hyperconnectivity will continue to allow businesses in the future to interrelate with people through their brands and purpose in ways they werenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t able to before.

Vertical Growth The new ways cities are growing up

SIGNALS

The Condo Boom Vertical Gardens Living Walls Transparency of Information

Urban centres are starting to reverse urban sprawl and instead trend construction efforts in a new direction, tackling a city’s growth by directing development vertically. The vertical growth is especially prevalent in Toronto’s downtown core with over 180 high-rises currently under construction (Chatti, 2014). The city’s density is intensifying quickly, as development industries explore more creative ways to utilize small pieces of land. Urban development isn’t the only thing growing up and finding new and innovative ways to use space, vertical gardens have become a popular trend where space is minimal. Vertical gardens were first introduced in Europe by French inventor Patrick Blanc, and have inspired many living

walls (Keillor, 2015). Urban dwellers can be seen using vertical space to increase the size of their gardens, making this trend ideal for condo living. Implications: As more and more people are moving into concrete environments in the city, urban developers and dwellers will have to find new innovative ways to connect with nature and bring nature back into the city. Urban developers are starting to incorporate vertical gardening in the initial designs of a development. Restaurants and private businesses are also designing multidisciplinary urban farms and gardens for whatever leftover space they have that they want to use. Urban dwellers

Tr e n d S c a n n i n g

Though the green roof trend has taken off in North America, vertical gardens and living walls have yet to hit their stride (Keillor, 2015)

COUNTER TRENDS

Urban Sprawl [Ec] Urban Development [Ec} Government Regulations [P]

are becoming more creative and building vertical garden applications out of recycled materials that include structures that look like shelving for plants, or trellises to maximize vertical space. The push to replace the dull grey urban facades with lush green vertical gardens and living walls is a trend that is growing up. Extrapolations: Though the green roof trend has taken off in North America, vertical gardens and living walls have yet to hit their stride (Keillor, 2015). Toronto passed a bylaw a few years ago requiring that a certain percentage of new construction has to integrate green roofs in their design and green roofs are now trending across

Canada (Keillor, 2015). Patrick Poiraud, design consultant and principal at Green Over Grey, predicts an explosion in the living wall trend in the next few years. Though this remains to be seen, one thing is certain, if people are surrounded by nature, plants, trees and greenery, they feel more connected to it and more compelled to protect their natural world.

Virtual Reality

SIGNALS

Oculus Rift VR Google Cardboard DIY VR Headset SmartReality Mobile App

Virtual Reality (VR) is a computerbased technology that provides visual, aural and tactile stimuli of a virtual world generated in real time. It is considered to be one of the next major technological developments by large consumer brands, such as Facebook and Samsung. These companies have made major investments to further develop the virtual reality (VR) technologies and make it more accessible and affordable to consumers on a large scale. For example, the Oculus’ VR technology is “a new communication platform,” according to Facebook Founder Mark Zuckerberg (Oliveira, 2014). Its ski goggle-like headset transports users into a virtual world, where the device’s video screen seamlessly responds to the motion of its users.

Implications: The Kickstarter campaign that catapulted the Oculus Rift company into fame in 2012 was one of the largest crowdfunding projects ever, raising around $2.4 million (Oliveira, 2014). The company was later purchased by Facebook for $2 billion in 2014 (Oliveira, 2014). While the new technology is in the very early stages of development, the quick demos make its promise immediately apparent to tech-enthusiasts across the globe. New startups are emerging creating immersive, 360 degree video and audio experiences as many more companies rush to get their own products and technologies to market by 2015.

Tr e n d S c a n n i n g

Virtual reality is part of a booming wearable technology industry that took steps toward a big breakout in 2014 and is expected to explode in 2015 (Oliveira, 2014)

Extrapolations: Virtual reality is part of a booming wearable technology industry that took steps toward a big breakout in 2014 and is expected to explode in 2015 (Oliveira, 2014). Another phase for the technology will involve connecting VR headsets to other body sensors, so users can see and control their own hands while experiencing a virtual reality setting (Oliveira, 2014). In any event, augmented reality (AR) trends in which the real world is supplemented by digital information is expected to create a virtual reality revolution in the near future.

Biomimicry Learning from nature’s sustainability

SIGNALS

Velcro BioWAVE Hydropower System Energy Harvesting Artificial Trees

Biomimicry is a hot trend in renewable energy technology (Rogers, 2009). Biomimicry seeks sustainable solutions to human challenges by mimicking nature. The aim is to create technologies, products and processes that are in harmony with the natural balance of the world. Scientists and engineers have been taking cues from nature, creating everything from solar panels inspired by butterfly wings to wind turbines based on the shape of whale flippers (Rogers, 2009). The big idea is that over millions of years, nature has developed patterns and strategies that are well adapted to life on Earth, providing a guide for the creation of sustainable technology that works in harmony with nature (Rogers, 2009).

Extrapolations: Biomimicry will continue to transcend ‘aesthetic’ and ‘functional’ inspiration and become applied more widely to systems, processes and innovation. Shifts in renewable energy sources, agricultural methods and manufacturing processes may be among those impacted. Businesses that wish to not just survive but also thrive in the years ahead are those that are agile, responsive and adaptable. Such firms of the future are able to continually redesign themselves for resilience. Biomimicry offers a framework and toolset for understanding how to best explore and apply Nature’s strategies for sustainable business and beyond.

Tr e n d S c a n n i n g

Biomimicry seeks sustainable solutions to human challenges by mimicking nature.

Vase created by bees -Studio Libertine

Urban Sprawl The growing migration to urban cores

SIGNALS

Demand for High Real Estate The Condo Boom Commercial and Residential Development in Urban Cores

The world is two-thirds of the way through a century-long cycle of rapid urbanisation, at the end of which more than 70% of people will live in cities (WHO, 2014). As our cities grow bigger, urban sprawl is beginning to affect our quality of life. This poses huge challenges such as car-dependent cultures, more carbon emissions, creating more congestion and urban expansion is cutting into precious farm and wildlands, putting valuable wildlife habitat and species at risk (David Suzuki, n.d.).

change. With the degradation of natural environments, future cities will need to adapt to or work to mitigate against things like climate change, population growth, globalization, technological developments, human mobility, ageing populations, insecurity (i.e. food, water, energy) as well as changing institutional and governance frameworks. How these cities look, feel, and operate will critically affect the lives of communities around the world, will impact our environment, and will influence our local, national and international economies.

Implications: Transformations in urban geography is not only causing changes in global governance, but also has huge implications for climate

Extrapolations: By 2050, the United Nations 2014 World Urbanization Prospects report projects that close to 70%

Tr e n d S c a n n i n g

The world is two-thirds of the way through a century-long cycle of rapid urbanisation, at the end of which more than 70% of people will live in cities (WHO, 2014).

COUNTER TRENDS

Cost of Living +Affordability [Ec] Environment+Sustainability [En] Quality of Life [V] Slow(er) Living [V]

of the globe will be living in cities (Quinn, 2014). Zooming into Toronto, the population is estimated to reach nearly seven million by 2030, making it the 65th largest city in the world, and the fifth largest in North America (Quinn, 2014). These projections shed light on the increasing importance for urbanisation to be shaped and managed so that cities can fully achieve their potential to increase prosperity and social cohesion and bring about improved standards of environmental efficiency as well as citizen health and well-being. If urbanization is not managed, and if suitable local financing and investment tools are not achieved, rapid urbanisation could prove a major threat to both modern society, and to the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s environmental fabric.

Reshaping Architecture Next generation architecture

SIGNALS

New Building Materials and Techniques: 1. Rice-Concrete Hybrid 2. Feather Boards 3. Dung Bricks 4. Disaster Prevention Materials

Current MIT estimations have the built environment doubling in the next 20 to 30 years, with the amount of urban housing needed likely to match that built in the previous 6,000 years (Marcowsky, 2014). Given the environmental footprint of typical steel, concrete, brick and aluminum logics, this will massively tax the Earth-surface resources and produce untenable atmospheric pollution (Fontelera, 2009). Also, buildings represent 45% of all carbon emissions, so it is imperative we look at innovations in the construction industry (Fontelera, 2009). This trend focuses on the need to rethink architecture from the start, with its raw materials.

Extrapolations: Global populations are set to rise drastically in the future, so real estate development is not going anywhere. The growth of this trend, however, to completely rethink what and how we construct, has the power to drastically reduce the carbon footprint of buildings, recycle/upcycle preexisting waste into raw materials, hold our developers more accountable to their environmental impact versus the cost of production, and make us more efficient consumers, as a whole.

Tr e n d S c a n n i n g

Buildings represent 45% of all carbon emissions, so it is imperative we look at innovations in the construction industry (Fontelera, 2009)

COUNTER TRENDS

Cost of Materials [Ec] Government Standards and Regulations [P]

Eco-Innovation The role of business models in green transformation

SIGNALS

The Circular Economy ASEI/ASEM Eco-Innovation Index Environmental Responsibility Net Investment in Eco-Innovation

Eco-innovation is the development and application of a business model (Osterwalder, 2005), shaped by a new business strategy, which incorporates sustainability throughout all business operations based on life cycle thinking (UNEP 2004) and in cooperation with partners across the value chain. With global resource scarcity and environmental degradation presenting growing challenges for many businesses, along with related market and regulatory pressures, companies are facing a need to think in a more sustainable way by integrating eco-innovation at the core of their businessâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; strategy. Eco-innovation is helping to transform these challenges into new market opportunities including increased market access,

value creation and market growth along with increased operational resilience (Osterwalder, 2005) Implications: Innovation pushes the frontier of green solutions outward and can help to decouple growth from natural capital depletion. Innovation will also lead to new ideas, new entrepreneurs and new business models, contributing to the establishment of new markets and eventually to the creation of new jobs and industrial transformation. Policy makers are also increasingly paying attention to the need for radical and systemic eco-innovations as a powerful lever in enabling a long-term transition and transformation towards a greener economy.

Tr e n d S c a n n i n g

Eco-innovation is helping to transform these challenges into new market opportunities including increased market access, value creation and market growth along with increased operational resilience (Osterwalder, 2005)

Extrapolations: COUNTER TRENDS

Cost of Living +Affordability [Ec] Environment+Sustainability [En] Quality of Life [V] Slow(er) Living [V]

Since eco-innovation and the resulting new business models are still relatively new to industry and policy makers alike, a better knowledge and understanding of emerging practices is needed to enablethe government to elaborate appropriate policies and to encourage industry to take up new opportunities.The future of innovation is about eco-innovation, and a low carbon innovation, which is an innovation with the performance of environmental benefits, energy saving and sustainable development.

Participatory Politics Every person should have a say

SIGNALS

The Pirate Party The parpolity theory

Participatory politics is a political view that dictates that every person should have a say in a decision proportionate to the degree to which they are affected by that decision. Related is the principle of subsidiarity which is the legal and social doctrine which says that decisions should be taken as closely as possible to the citizen. The view has recently been connected more and more with advances in internet technology which make it technically possible to execute referendums with less cost. Though public referendums have been practiced for a long time, notably in Switzerland and that the principle of subsidiarity is one of the main principles of the European Union and other suprana-

tional unions, the view of participatory politics has only recently become the main foundation of whole political movements. At least one international political party is founded on the possibility of participatory politics: the Pirate Party, which originates in Sweden but has also gained notable territory in Germany and Iceland and also operates in Canada. The Pirate parties are supporters of civil rights, direct democracy and participation in government, reform of copyright and patent law, free sharing of knowledge (open content), information privacy, transparency, freedom of information, anti-corruption and network neutrality. The theoretical background can also be found in the works of

Tr e n d S c a n n i n g

Participatory politics challenge the current norm where elected representatives have the voting power of most major decisions.

COUNTER TRENDS

Fascism [P] Anti-technology Movements [S]

Stephen R. Shalom which equally uses the term parpolity to explain the theory. Shalom argues that the values on which parpolity is based are freedom, self-management, justice, solidarity and tolerance. Implications: Participatory politics challenge the current norm where elected representatives have the voting power of most major decisions. The ever increasing access to information and the technical possibilities of making every home a voting station could in more and more cases replace the middle man.

Extrapolations: With more computing power and connectivity the movement is expected to gain traction. It also poses risks since smart devices and computer systems can be hacked and election results compromised.

Slow(er) Living Escape from the fast pace life of urban life

SIGNALS

Slow Living Summit Slow Food Toronto The Slow Web Movement

As our fast paced world grows with complexity, our notion of time alters and so do our behaviours and consumption habits. The slow movement manifested itself in the 1980’s through the food movement in response to the growing popularity of fast food (Silverstein, n.d.). The movement has expanded to various spectrums such as slow travel, slow housing, slow design, slow health and more recently ‘slow web’. The ubiquity of technology has nurtured a longing for a ‘slower,’ more simple life among many consumers; a lifestyle with a less instant and connected nature. The movement values giving back and becoming more strongly connected to the earth, our communities and ourselves.

Implications: The Slow Living Vision is of an Earth where humankind, honoring and celebrating the profound connectedness of all people, places and living beings, gives back by co-creating mutually supportive communities, bioregions and economic systems — and where we combine the wisdom of the past with a vision for the future to ensure a balanced, fulfilling way of life for all generations to come (Silverstein, n.d.). The movement is already being realized all over the world by an array of people and organizations who are working on creating new pathways. These include sustainable agriculture, community building, renewable energy, reforestation, social justice, new economic models and resource

Tr e n d S c a n n i n g

The Slow Living Vision is of an Earth where humankind honours and celebrates the profound connectedness of all people, places and living beings.

COUNTER TRENDS

Hyperconnectivity [S] Digital Technology [T]

conservation, and also deeper explorations into the wisdom of indigenous people and the roles of the arts, ethics, philosophy, science, spirituality and religion in healing the Earth.

Consumerism [Ec] Connected Life [V]

Extrapolations: As the world grows faster, the need for a counter-response of slowness grows in parallel. This is evident in how the slow movement is expanding past the notion of slow food and impacting industries in healthcare and technology. A growing number of thought leaders in the Web and design communities are beginning to recognize the significance of â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;Slow Web,â&#x20AC;&#x2122; as a progressive way forward.

Drivers

A driver is the overarching systemic force that is responsible for producing, influencing, and driving trends. The stronger the driver, the more trends they produce and influence. Trends are analytically reviewed and systemically assigned to the drivers, with the final driver classification also following the STEEP-V framework (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, and Values-based). When considered collectively, drivers offer a compelling basis for envisioning scenarios, performing foresight analysis, and developing critical strategies for innovation. The teamâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s scanning process identified seven critical drivers, and analyzed them based on their level of impact and perceived certainty or uncertainty within the 25 year time period.

Drivers of Change

Dense Vertical Urbanization Social Urbanization is a population shift from rural to urban areas, and the ways in which society adapts to the change. For the first time in history, according to the 2014 UN World Urbanization Prospects Highlights report, the global urban population exceeded the global rural population in 2007 and thereafter, the world population has remained predominantly urban. As per the same report, Canada is ranked ahead of the United States, France and Germany, having 82% of its population living in an urban context and is set to rise to 88% by 2030. More specifically, Toronto is ranked as the 56th most urban agglomeration in the world based on its population size, with the movement from suburban to city living transforming the city at a dizzying vertical rate. This intensification is only set to accelerate as high levels of immigration also play a determining factor in urban population growth for the city. As

a result, there has been a feverish high-rise condo development movement in the past decade to accommodate for the increasing urban population growth and to mitigate against urban sprawl. Urbanization is integrally connected to the three pillars of sustainable development: economic development, social development and environmental protection. These pillars highlight the importance of urban planning and policy as critical players in measuring, managing, and mitigating the negative environmental impact of the accompanying changes to the city structure.

Grassroots Environmental Movements Social Grassroots activism is the heart and soul of the environmental movement, and the political opportunity model of grassroots movements focuses primarily on groups with little formal political power.

The challenge lies in building an environmentally sustainable and more resilient city, where monetary and environmental goals grow in harmony. When all available green city space is seemingly being converted to high-rise condominiums, with little political pushback, the need to move towards an environmentally sustainable model is urgent. Communities and other groups of well-informed and engaged citizens are spurring environmental movements within the urban environment. The recognizable importance of grassroots environmental movements lies in their success in mobilizing mass public support for changes in public policy, a bottom-up approach that contradicts much of how todayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s political agenda is set, and a divergence from prior and less successful efforts of direct lobbying for policy change. In Toronto, for example, the urban beekeeping, residential green-roof installations and slow food movement have resulted in the product of city bylaws or received substantial attention by

Drivers

city and municipal governments. As the sophistication and maturity of grassroots environmental movements continues to grow, they are increasingly becoming intertwined with social issues as collaboration amongst grassroots movements increases. This is resulting in grassroots movements having even more mass appeal with the public and growing their potential political prowess. Pervasiveness of Digital Technology Technology A by-product of living in the 21st century, with the techboom, startup culture, mass production and hunger for instant knowledge, is the hyper digital connectivity we all experience. Digital technology touches people’s lives from the moment they wake up with smart phones acting as personal alarms to acting as digital diaries by day. The digital technology of today’s marketplace has evolved to a point where many aspects of society’s social life is almost wholly dependent on tech gadgets. Even previously unrelated social behaviours, such as parenting, are now inextricably intertwined with the use of technology as right hand tool to manage children. Technology has, to no surprise, created a

more sedentary, environmentally aloof and disconnected society, with children among the most obvious affected. Nature deficit disorder, a hypothesis by Richard Louv in his 2005 book ‘Last Child in the Woods,’ claims that human beings, especially children, are spending less time outdoors resulting in a wide range of behavioral problems. Pervasive digital technology is a prime culprit. Digital technology, like most other things, is well-intended to benefit and improve our lives. Its pervasiveness is only set to grow, not decrease, and with an intention to re-wild our children and society as a whole, environmental messaging, gaming, cues and other constructs can be used to re-educate society in an effort to reconnect people with nature. Powerful Corporate Agendas Economic The Canadian government is increasingly deregulating industries under pressures of financial obligations, corporate lobbyist agendas, and widespread austerity measures to cut its budget. The result of deregulation being the placement of ROI as more important than that of “public interest.” Government bailouts, tax cuts, enacted policies, trade agree-

ments and environmental regulations that favor corporate agendas over public interests have become a commonplace practice, protecting the wealth and power of a select few individuals at the expense of the environment and general public. The Occupy Wall Street movement’s goals were a prime example of the hidden backstory regarding the extent of corporate control and manipulation. Since corporate agendas have such a tight grip on our political institution, their power to drive policy, actions, regulations and behavior cannot be ignored. Climate Change Mitigation Economic Climate change mitigation seeks to acknowledge and respond to the white elephant in the room asking you, “Pay now or later?” Climate change mitigation seeks to tackle the causes of climate change through the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Mitigation can mean using new innovative technologies and renewable energies, conversion of older equipment to be more energy efficient, or influencing consumer behavior to be more conscientious. With start-up culture, environmental awareness and technological innovation as its peak, climate change mitiga-

When considered collectively, drivers offer a compelling basis for envisioning scenarios

tion is finally shiftings hands from being a predominantly top-down dialogue to bottom-up action. Economists and governments have been quarreling over which is most cost-effective and worthy of support. The Stern Review commissioned by the UK government in 2005, found that the costs of mitigation to avoid dangerous climate change could be limited to around 1% of global GDP each year, whereas the costs of inaction might be equivalent to losing 15-20% of global GDP per year. Mitigation and adaptation, should not be seen

in silos, but rather as working together to build more resilient cities that are better equipped to deal with the impacts of climate change. Environmental Regulation Political Environmental regulation is traditionally enacted by governmental agencies, from the city to federal level. While regulations should be based on well-researched environmental arms of the government and other independent agencies, strong party ideologies, corporate lobbyist agendas, foreign policy, international trade

relations, and a host of other key driving factors often impact the final regulations enacted by the political parties in power. The current Harper government is a prime example of having taken environmental action reflecting political party agendas over true environmental needs of the country, withdrawing from the the Kyoto accords to continuing exploration work in the Alberta tar sands. The accompanying long-term costs are coming at the expense of the environment for future generations to bear.

Drivers

A driver is the overarching systemic force that is responsible for producing, influencing, and driving trends.

Environmental regulation has the power to prevent, curtail, mitigate, adapt or further degrade environmental conditions - its impact undeniable. Equally undeniable is its perceived future uncertainty; with political parties having finite terms, it is quite possible to either proceed further down the path currently being pushed by the Harper government, or make a U-turn, but it all depends on the level of participatory politics the Canadian public chooses to practice. It starts with the level of awareness the public uses to push the government to change its course of action, shifting the currently unequal view of environmental stewardship from short-term political party to longterm impact on future generations. Environmentalism Values Environmentalism is a broad philosophy, ideology and social movement regarding concerns for environmental protection and improvement of the health of the environment.

At its crux, environmentalism is an attempt to sustainably balance relations between humans and the various natural systems on which they depend on. Awareness leads to action, and it is the collective force of action by people that will result in any changes to current environmental practices. While environmentalism in Canada, as a movement and philosophy, dates back to its Aboriginal roots, 21st century capitalism has been threatening its efficacy, receiving recent pushback from the rise of grassroots environmental activism. Demographics have a very crucial role to play in environmentalism, and while the younger Canadian generation (ages 18-29) is more outspoken and seemingly environmentally conscious, they are leaving much of the conservation and environmental responsibility efforts to older generations. Such research, by Bullfrog Power, highlights the need to continually scan and monitor the attitudes and pulse of environmentalism amongst the populace so that the awareness efforts can be

rightfully evolved and redirected. Environmentalism as a social movement and public voice has an increasingly heavy responsibility. Its uptake and ownership by all generations, particularly the young, is what will dictate its impact.

Scenarios

Scenarios showcase plausible, coherent depictions about the future aimed at making sense of uncertain drivers; they are used as the basis for developing and informing strategies for decision-makers. Scenarios provide a non-threatening environment for exploring multiple perspectives, elaborating on the previously identified Signals, Trends, and Drivers to create a shared platform leading to understanding and trust amongst the various stakeholders.

2x2 Matrix

GREEN

The scenarios were decided with the use of the 2x2 matrix. The two most IMPACTFUL and UNCERTAIN drivers

Prescribed Dome

formed the basis of the axis.

W.W.N.D.

TOP DOWN

DECISION MAKING

URBANIZATION

Green Screen

GREY

Grey Matter

BOTTOM UP

The Y axis is the influential global driver of urbanization, a very impactful force in the shaping of cities and, in particular, its context in influencing our relationship with nature. While urbanization is certain, its appeal lies in the uncertainty surrounding how it will manifest itself in the cityscape. Whether it will lead to a greener, more environmentally conscious city (+), or, the polar opposite of grey (-). The X axis is â&#x20AC;&#x153;Decision makingâ&#x20AC;? and the (+) indicates a bottom-

up approach to decision making where the public drives the change, while the (-) represents a top-down system where the government or big powerful corporations dictate the policies.

Scenario Development

GREEN

Trend Mapping Across Matrix

Kinetic Energy [T]

Energy Efficiency [Ec]

Triple Bottom Line [Ec]

Participatory Politics [P]

Solar Energy Capture [T]

Working from Home [S]

Solar Power [T]

Green Roofs [En] Reshaping Architecture [Ec]

[P]

Urban Sprawl [S]

Age of Austerity [P]

Capital Flight to Offshore [Ec]

Devalorization [V]

Urban Gardens [En]

Eco-Innovation [En]

Clean Tech [T]

Virtual Reality [T]

Hyperconnectivity [S]

URBANIZATION

Urban Decay [Ec]

Sharing economy [S]

[En]

Nature Deficit Disorder [En]

Congestion [S]

The 3 Bs [S]

DECISION MAKING

BOTTOM UP

Connected Life [V]

Cybercrime [P]

GREY

Innovation Acquisition [Ec]

Slow Living [V]

Vertical Growth

Biomimicry [En]

TOP DOWNDeregulation

Organic to Table [Ec]

Going Local [En]

Mapping of Trends that informed scenario development.

Scenarios

TRENDS: Social: Farmerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Markets Sharing Economy Slow Food Organic to Table Vertical Growth Technology: Biomimicry CleanTech Solar Paint Solar Windows Economic: Eco-Innovation Energy Efficiency Globalization Land Ownership Reshaping Architecture Environmental: Carbon Currency Urban Gardens Political: Eco-Activism Going Local Green Roofs Participatory Politics Values: Environmentalism Ethical Consumerism Slow(er) Living

W.W.N.D What would nature do?

SUMMARY People, not governments, have a

Toronto is powered by the people, literally and figuratively.

seat on the decision making table. While dense urbanization has been

The government system has been

on an upward cycle for the past

overhauled. Transparency and ac-

few decades, people have become

countability are king. While the public

increasingly conscious of their col-

still votes for government parties

laborative existence with nature.

and representatives based on their

Tired of waiting for the slow pace

stance, live public voting stations, on

of government, people have taken

all bills having a public impact is built

environmental matters into their own

into the political system as a control

hands.

to keep our government more aligned and accountable. This political shift

Herein lies a resilient city, a city that

has allowed for the public to engage

has grown green and for the people,

in decision making in a way that was

where conservation is a habit and

previously not possible or imaginable

“going green” is commonplace lan-

before, to fight for the things they

guage. New technologies focus on

care about deeply, like the environ-

deploying renewable energy, selling

ment. Decision-making is bottom-up

organic foods or engaging in other

with the existence of a governing and

modes of sustainability.

judicial body. Mistakes made are now everyone’s mistakes, and so are the

The green movement reminds us all

victories.

to “Live Green, Toronto. Because, there is no planet B.”

An ‘energy’ revolution has taken place in the last decade as people have both, faced the environmental impacts of overuse from generations past, and felt morally inclined to

change their ways. Capturing energy, both potential and kinetic, and turning it into off-grid “green” power that can be used to operate our spaces is expected and commonplace; people are making a concerted effort and finding new creative ways to power their energy needs. The consumer demands for reducing energy use and harvesting wasted energy from various sources has spurred various innovation cycles in the three biggest sectors: food, technology and energy. Due to the increased pressures of urbanization in the last three decades, high-rise city living is the norm, and green space is rare. New multi-story park structures are under development, structurally mirroring vertical parking lots, and replacing the previously sprawling urban parks to accommodate for the need for green city space. It’s common for families to come and walk through the spiraling towers on weekends. Eco-preneurship is joining forces with other socially responsible businesses to sprout new ventures with green ideas. Like the emergence

Scenarios

In 2040, living consciously in the present, but with consideration for long-term consequences is seen as a return to our native roots.

of Growtubes, offering a new way

altered foreign relations with previ-

to grow fresh food in small spaces

ously strong trade partners, such as

all year round, to green wall apart-

the U.S. and China, whose general

ment buildings and ‘Cycle Miles,’

populace is still not as committed to

replacing the previously popular ‘Air

the environment.

Miles’ program, rewarding cyclists for making the green choice. People are

Toronto has become a city of radi-

constantly innovating new ways to

cal eco-activism, where people are

live green and use less energy.

proud to walk the talk on living a more nature-aligned life. The fury

In an effort to teach children of the

and rage caused by previous political

value of nature most parents send

indifference and inactions over the

their children to “Saturday Nature

rapid decline of the earth’s ecosys-

Classes,” where they can spend

tems and the “get out of jail free

time learning about the cause and

card” played by many of the main

effect of their actions on the environ-

greenhouse gas emitters have spilled

ment through play. Children grow up

over into direct action. Corporations

hearing about carbon footprint over

who practice environmental con-

calories - a societal phenomena to

tentiousness and energy efficiency

choose foods with the lowest envi-

have mass appeal with the current

ronmental overburden or footprint

consumer, for whom value is just as

and consequently, the lowest global

important as values.

warming potential (GWP). While urban parks are limited, city chil-

In 2040, living consciously in the

dren still have ample opportunity to

present, but with consideration for

interact with green. The latest local

long-term consequences is seen as a

eco-farming and vertical horticul-

return to our native roots.

ture advances have made possible incredibly intense upward growth. This extreme conscientious to GWP by Canadians has significantly

SIGN POSTS

Over a quarter of all real estate sold in the GTA features built-in green rooms and green walls. The sustainability stock exchange (SSX) outranks the traditional stock exchange (e.g. NYSE). RBC, one of the biggest employers in Toronto, decides to provide its staff with health benefits plans that include “nature” breaks.

Scenarios

TRENDS: Social: Hyperconnectivity Nature Deficit Disorder Social Media Technology: CleanTech Smart Technology Virtual Reality Environmental: Extreme Weather Resource Scarcities Political: Cybercrime Online Activity Monitoring The Proliferation of Online Participation and Activ足ism Economic: New Forms of Ownership Tech Valleys Values: Connected Life

The Green Screen I screen. We screen. We all screen.

SUMMARY

Green Screen, a future where our environments have become confined inside screens and tech gadgets. The role of government is minimal, with the fast paced start-up culture taking charge, new technologies are introduced on the daily taking open innovation and new collaborative interfaces to the next level of hyperconnectivity. Oculus Rift technology has become a necessary accessory in every household and is used to manipulate the nature of environments with the push of a button. Children are growing up in skewed, artificial realities of existence, interacting with screens before they can say their first words. Technology interdependence has resulted in a society that is extremely out of touch with nature. With extreme weather patterns brought about by climate change, at-home convenience and lack of predictability has made virtual nature a legitimate replacement to spending time in the natural world.

The much hyped about ‘Privacy

Rifts connect to, and control, ev-

Act’ from the early 2000’s has been

erything in our lives from our house

turned upside down; it’s the time of

to our daily experience. Today,

the ‘Open Information Act’ which

society is increasingly governed by

further promotes the uninhibited

collective action and its ability to

sharing culture that currently exists,

penetrate online data and transme-

sharing without the notion of per-

dia networks. The need for instant

sonal boundaries.

gratification and quick fixes has pushed the start-up culture to domi-

Everyone identifies themselves as a

nate, employing 85% of Toronto’s

member of online communities from

residents. While the role of formal

Virtual Life Portals to sporting online

government, as we knew it previ-

transmitting devices that monitor

ously, is significantly reduced, the

their physiological and virtual activ-

Privacy Commissioner of Canada

ity 24/7. Self absorbed lives where

has quadrupled in size in the past

external validation from others is a

decade to protect national and indi-

valued source of self-esteem has

vidual online interests.

communities giving their members daily online recognition awards for

Cities have their own virtual identify

everything from “best uninterrupted

and techie nicknames, Toronto’s

sleep” to “best virtual experience

being “ The Green City,” famous for

of the day.” In an effort to “keep up

its ‘Green Screen’ sky installation

with Joneses,” people with the most

and a play on words for its once

recognitions are receiving online

very nature-centric identity. Once a

badges to boost their “virtual popu-

month‚ green pigments are released

larity.” Needless to say, being more

into the air, transforming the sky into

connected online has lead to more

a ‘Green Screen’ media playground,

time spent indoors, far surpassing

with pedestrians walking around

the time spent outdoors.

with their rifts, manipulating the sky with the push of a button and live

Everything is online. Our Oculus

streaming their experiences into

Scenarios

In 2040, people love the notion of nature, but only within the confines of their screens and tech gadgets

their Virtual Life Portals. Due to cli-

trip to the Himalayas, as well as a

mate change and extreme weather

low budget one day beach escape.

being commonplace, people avoid

Children who are exposed to these

being outdoors – it’s a hassle and

artificial realities and interacting with

inconvenience. Playing with virtual

screens from an early age are raised

reality allows control over individual

to believe THAT is natural.

experiences in a way that being outside does not. Increasingly low use

In 2040, people love the notion of

of urban green spaces also resulted

nature, but only within the confines

in remaining green space no longer

of their screens and tech gad

being “public” land as of 2025.

gets; interacting with nature has

Private owners or entire communi-

become a thing of the past, green

ties came together to take charge of

has become virtual, and so has our

the spaces, requiring a pay-per-use

perception of it.

maintenance fee. Such steps were

SIGN POSTS

Facle (the activist controlled techcollective founded on the ruins of the bankrupt Facebook and Google) declares that the age of the internet as a detached entity has passed and the age of omnipresent constant connectivity of all things has begun: The Internet of Things. NDD officially recognised as a symptom and put in the lexicon.

taken to protect the urban green, but resulted in further alienation of the public from enjoying it. Resiliency to climate change is measured in how little you have to interact with the environment versus how you are able to brave it; case in point being the popularity of at-home virtual vacations. Companies offering virtual vacation experiences have cropped up in the same frequency as ice cream stands in the summer. The top ranked virtual vacation packages in Toronto last year (2039), was a three day

The first official “park” prescription is signed by a doctor in Toronto.

Scenarios

TRENDS: Social: Congestion Urban Decay Urban Sprawl Economic: Capital Flight to Offshore Devalorization Globalization Innovation Acquisition

Environmental: Climate Change Depletion of Resources Invasive species Political: Age of Austerity Deregulation Ineffective Policies Government Bailouts Values: Materialism Overprotection of Children

The Parking Lot Everywhere but in people’s heads

SUMMARY Toronto is described by one word and that word is ‘Grey.’ The government has highly privatized and deregulated many industries resulting in in heavy exploitation of resources without any concern or foresight in mind. The city is grey. The concrete is grey, the pollution in the sky is grey and people spend most of their time inside. Government and industry investment over the last several decades focused on high-rises, roads and cars, so high urban density and traffic are evident. A bird’s eye view of Toronto shows more parking lots than trees. People do not only stay inside to run from the greyness, but also to flee from the weather extremes caused by climate change. Winters are more blizzardous, summers are hotter and the unpredictability of the weather has made many people give up on outdoor activity altogether. Children are being diagnosed with ecophobia as their perception of nature is one associated with fear and harm. The damage is irreversible both to the environment and the personal relationship city dwellers have with their natural world.

The government has privatized and deregulated most industries, including the energy sector. Originally, just another measure to establish austerity, the deregulation has given big corporations absolute power to exploit resources. The government’s main objective has been to remain focused on economic growth and job creation. While it is not against innovation, small companies pay full taxes while the big corporations have managed to find various loopholes to avoid paying their share. The uneven playing field where small companies don’t stand a chance against the big corporations is the economic fabric, where start-up culture is squashed with every attempt to revive itself. The big corporations usually buy out innovative ideas born in small companies, and the novelty of innovation is seldom cherished in this ‘top to bottom’ environment. The gap between the rich and the poor has increased with urban slums littered throughout the city of Toronto. Condos, in the urban slums, built in the big building boom of the early 2000’s are now in dire need of main-

tenance. Neighbourhoods are riddled with social problems that the (weak) municipal government does not have means to mend. On the positive side there are art movements that have found the beauty in the urban decay, turning these condos into grande artistic statements showing the hubris of the human spirit. The price of energy still remains unsustainably low, subsidized by the government in an attempt to keep all energy dependent industries alive. The realities of austerity have also lead to deregulation in zoning laws. Large corporations have taken control over the planning of entire neighbourhoods in Toronto, resulting in dense and cheap construction with very few green spaces and “maintenance free” parks. With a less holistic approach to urban planning, the city has continued to sprawl. The cityscape is like that of a tundra with high-rises sticking up like trees from the big parking plateau. People are too passive and disenfranchised to fight this movement, with little to no say in the matter. The average daily commute in the

Scenarios

In 2040, people avoid nature, as it is a source of stress, not relaxation

GTA is longer than it was 25 years ago, clocking in at around 72 minutes one way, up by 39,2 minutes from 2014. Due to expansive development in recent years itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s harder and harder to keep the figures low. Children are less exposed to nature. In fact, they are less exposed to freedom even inside the city or near their homes. Many parents are governed by fear. Fear of skin cancers, extreme allergies, unpredictable weather and auto-accidents has lead to an over-protective culture with parents driving their children everywhere in their cars. There are a few Omni-centres in every big city. The omni-centre is a cluster of superstores and entertainment malls that offer everything from recreation to shopping and even religious activities. Indoor sports are the only way for people to stay physically active. While the number of cars per person has not increased, they have become bigger, more powerful, and more technologically advanced. Cars are marketed as machines to meet the extreme weather conditions, hav-

ing powerful A/C functions for the extreme humidity and heat in the summer and big wheels to take on the snow in the winter. International commerce is going strong and most people enjoy the benefits of globalization. Food is shipped across the globe and production and service is outsourced to lower-wage countries who have even less control of their emission policies. Invasive species and resulting outbreaks are both frequent and extreme in nature. In 2040, people avoid nature, as it is a source of stress and not relaxation. Nature is to be avoided, and faced only when absolutely necessary.

SIGN POSTS

PeakÂOil is unarguably reached. West Canadaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s oil sands become even more valuable and the economic activity of the nation centres around fossil fuel. The Yorkdale Omni-centres opens. Victory of convenience. Shopping and service is all done in superstore or online. People rarely go outside anymore.

Scenarios

Prescribed Dome We live in a strange bubble

SUMMARY

After years of peddling to corporate interests ahead of all else, the Canadian government reinvents itself, young environmental activists having taken it by storm. Environmental respect starts with conservation and the imposition of self-regulated quota’s – “pay” for use through the self-harvesting of various energy forms. Technological advances have helped the environment too. While dense urbanization is the norm, all physical construction is conscious with architectural plans including building material and structural fittings that work with nature. Protection of whatever nature is left is a high priority, and being a more resilient city is the new motto. The youth of today respect nature’s life cycle and do what they can to play by its rules, instead of imposing their own like their ancestors had done away with.

There was a wake-up call. The twig

kinetic energy, with the remaining

had snapped. For the past two de-

gap coming primarily from solar

cades corporations had exclusively

sources. Violations of this natural

run Canada and had successfully

order of things, involve steep fees by

twisted the government’s regulatory

the government. With an inability to

arm so well for so long that the arm

generate the kind of energy required

fell off, quite literally. The downward

to power large office buildings, most

spiral had prioritized declining costs

companies have done away with their

AT ALL COSTS, jeopardizing the

physical locations and those remain-

health of the public and the environ-

ing, have incorporated technology

ment until the very brink of collapse.

to capture every potential source of environmental energy possible.

Instead of a public coup taking over the Corporates, it’s the federal

Similarly, the powering of people’s

government that revolts, reclaiming

households and technologies are lim-

its power in the late 2030’s. Govern-

ited to the amount of solar or kinetic

ment 5.0 is born. It comprises many

energy they are able to self-harvest,

Millennials and Generation Zs, who

so healthy outdoor lifestyles are the

have both grown up identifying them-

norm.

selves as “lifelong target consumers,” robbed of almost every square

Working-from-home is also com-

inch of green in the name of profit.

monplace with most people “holo-

The conscientious activists, now our

commuting” using 3D holographic

government, are ready to reclaim,

technology and virtual reality manipu-

preserve and regenerate!

lation. As a result, Corporates, the largest perpetrators of irresponsible

Energy conservation becomes a

energy use for decades, cut their

priority in 2040. Office buildings

energy consumption by two-thirds

are required to “pay” for at least

in 2040. Holo-commuting has made

80% of their energy use through

“rush hour” a memory of the past and

self-generated and self-harvested

most errands that required travel or

Scenarios

In 2040, lifestyles and choices reflect respect for the planet and environment versus the interests of corporate or socioeconomic systems. “in-person” interaction are no longer

As the resiliency of native nature

The Millennials and Generation Zs

necessary. However, when people

proves its mettle, the city of Toronto

have a profound respect for nature

do have to commute, they have the

has also introduced dome free “test

and are doing their best to make

option to request a very accessible

tube-nature,” spurring a revival of

the most of what they have, ensur-

hydrogen based self-driving taxi.

outdoor community animation full of

ing their government puts in place

These lifestyle changes have resulted

thriving green roofs, urban gardens

the checks and balances needed to

in drastic decreases to environmental

and outdoor festivals. These test-

achieve a more resilient and green

pollution, making smog days a very

tube trees, plants, and flowers are

urban landscape.

rare occurrence.

resistant to bugs and not reliant on water, perfect for the resource-

Nature, unfortunately, has suffered

constrained environment. Enjoying

the most from globalization. The

nature is a conscious act in 2040,

mass wave of immigration experi-

and all the more appreciated in part,

enced by Canada until the 2020’s,

due to its fragile composition.

brought with it, an unavoidable by-product with invasive species

The city’s architecture is also fitted

of all kinds. The seemingly endless

for environmental fragility. All build-

rounds of pandemic attacks slowly

ings are required to have “smart” wa-

weakened the ecological immunity

ter and rain catchment systems that

of Toronto, bringing much of it to the

capture, at least 90%, of all water

brink of extinction by 2030. The few

hitting its surface before it is filtered

remaining native trees, plants and

and treated for building use. Given

flowers, have since then been thriving

the extreme combination of limited

in breathing preservation eco-domes

fresh-water access, frequent torren-

put in place by the municipal gov-

tial rainstorms and droughts expe-

ernment. The permeable skins are

rienced in any one year in Toronto,

always doing double-duty - releas-

have made water harvesting a top

ing oxygen back into the outside air

priority for the government. As such,

while scanning and sanitizing anyone

all aspects of the architectural plans

that enters to maintain the sanctity of

for buildings are put through rigor-

the inside environment. Alarm bells

ous review, ensuring environmental

are being raised at the very detection

adaptation is at the forethought.

of a possible compromise. Similar eco-dome technology has been

In 2040, lifestyles and choices reflect

modified for underwater ecological

the patterns of the planet and envi-

preservation, lining our lake bottoms

ronment versus the interests of cor-

and preserving the fish.

porate or socioeconomic systems.

SIGN POSTS

The Bill of Environmental Policies is passed. Parliament enacts environmental legislation based on multi-sector policy design. The constitution is amended to include the environment.

Time Machine

The purpose of the Time Machine is to bring a particular future scenario to life. The concept should evoke all senses and give a more omnipresent feeling than the written word. The Time Machine that was built was centered around the Green Screen scenario; the grey urbanized and technologically advanced world where people are not bound by big government or corporate culture but rather driven by own initiative and innovation.

Nature Deficit Disorder Clinic One of the gloomy aspect of the world of the Green Screen is how things are priorized in favour of technologyu. Things that are not developed in accordance with technology are not held in high regards. The concept of an open and free access to nature has been neglected and many feel that spending time in artificial nature, experienced through screens and other means of virtual reality, is sufficient. On top of that come challenges related to climate change and a grey technological urban environment so people have started to develop Nature Deficit Disorder or NDD.

Time Machine

The time machine painted a picture of what can happen if technology infiltrates our lives without a strong guiding notion. Using technology to promote a closer relationship with nature is a slippery slope.

The Claustrophobic Maze

of the operation were explained to

a scan of their brain and prescrip-

The Time Machine brought visitors to

the patients before they could enter.

tions to take medication which the

Upon entering the patients were

clinic provided to them. The medi-

registered and then had to wait in a

cation had names like Lacdose,

small room for further instructions.

Prodose and Tree O2 to make up

They were then lead in to an even

for their exposure to nature and

smaller waiting room in small groups

natural nutrition.

a clinic in the year 2040 operated by a group of people independent from government. The clinicâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s purpose is to measure and treat NDD but in order to do so patients need to undergo neurological tests performed via virtual reality, further feeding the problem that it is supposed to fix. The result is a grim experience, where wilderness is discovered by going through a claustrophobic maze, signing legal waivers and receiving incomprehensible test results and despite of getting the proper treatment the patients are inevitably still living in a constant state of

where they had to sign a digital legal waiver before entering the examination room. In the examination room the patients were given headsets and asked to stare at a wide screen projection of nature patterns on the wall while listening to ambient nature sounds. While doing that they had further instructions from the clinicâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s doctor before they were lead back to the waiting room for their results.

uncertainty and fear.

The waiting room had a gloomy

The Procedure

harsh storm and weather alerts were

The experience started in a cue outside the clinic where ground rules

atmosphere where the sound of a played and had an artificial window that showed a lightning charged sky. The patients got their results showing

Time Machine

A Visit in to the Future of Toronto 2040

Strategies

The aim of the scenario work was to draw up images of futures that are possible, probable or even preferable. In other words any one of those future scenarios can happen but some situations are more feasible than others. In order to make use of the scenarios they need to be evaluated in connection with the current state of a certain industry or organization. It was decided that the sector that would benefit the most from the scenario work are environmental organizations. The work presented in this chapter focuses on implications from the scanning-, trend- and scenario work to come up with strategies that can benefit environmental organizations today to reach the most preferable future scenario or pivot away from a less desirable one.

Strategies & Implications

Objecive

The original research question of how our relationship with nature might change in an urban context by 2040 was evolved further to connect it with environmental organizations. The questions the strategies serve is:

How can environmental organizations connect people with nature?

Step 1: Scenario examination and stakeholder analysis By carefully examining the scenarios the aim is to evaluate opportunities and obstacles in each and every one in connection with the new research question. Traits or situations in scenarios that serve as a hindrance for environmental organizations to connect people with nature are noted, as are features that could help the organizationsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; aim. The strategies are based on measures to either encourage or discourage a certain evolution, make use of signposts along the way

to either pivot away from a scenario or leverage it. A part of the method is also to make a list of stakeholders. Apart from the environmental organizations the government and policy makers play a role and so do also self organized communities, individuals and private funders. Step 2: Finding strategies based on opportunities and obstacles From the stakeholderâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s standpoint some scenarios are Even though certain industries would be happy with the world depicted in the scenario Parking Lot or The Green Screen where urbanization leans towards a more grey side, itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s logical to conclude that the environmental organizations sector would prefer a greener world. When the interests of all stakeholders has been measured it makes sense to put down the sweet spot in the middle of The Prescribed Dome and W.W.N.D. scenarios. Since some stakeholders rely more on government support and others on grassroot driven initiatives the most desirable compromise for all is a future which is neither dominated by top-down nor bottom-up decision making but includes a bit of both.

Step 3: Strategy analysis The initial list of strategies was thought up to suit as many stakeholders as possible. It was put through a strategy analysis test looking at different factors like risk, financial performance and cultural and strategic fit. Step 4: Wind tunnelling The aim is to find strategies that are robust and not only have benefits that outweigh the risks but would also be of use no matter how the future will turn out. The strategy ideas are further walked through the 2x2 quadrants and given a grade based on how much effect they can have on each scenario. Conclusion After the four steps some strategies obviously are more relevant than others. Furthermore the double phased inspection also leads some strategies to collide with others. The final conclusion is to sum up the most robust ideas and make mergers between those that are similar. The four strategies that are proposed are believed to

Strategies & Implications

PRESCRIBED DOME

WWND

PARKING LOT

GREEN SCREEN

Foster intrapreneurship within organizations

Connect nature to health

Integrating families as stakeholders

Participatory engagement through transmedia

Environmental orgs partner with public health & wellness agencies

Environmental orgs partner with food agencies

Environmental orgs partner with urban planning & development

Expand institutional partnerships

Expand community based partnerships

Expand sector based partnerships

Find new revenue generators

Guerrilla marketing campaigns

STRATEGIES

Nature as health education through teacher training + curricula

Training staff/employees on human-centred design

#1 Unify Platforms Development of robust backbone infrastructure for environmental organizations to collaborate from.

Description: This strategy involves the development of an independent backbone platform that will allow environmental sector organizations to be able to have a stronger voice in Toronto. The â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;platformâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; would be a combination of technical infrastructure for increased virtual, online communication, as well as in-person meetings that would allow for more organic partnerships to form amongst various organizations. Currently, there is some inter-sectoral collaboration being cultivated in Toronto by select funders, and while this is an improvement from before (where limited self-directed and self-funded collaboration took place) it has very serious limitations, such as: (1) the encouraged collaborations are often limited to those organizations supported by the funder (2) Many of the resulting initiatives/partnerships can feel more like shotgun marriages (arranged by the funder) vs. strategic alignments, and (3) The collaborations are usually only supported during the life of the funding

period, often times resulting in more work for the organizations with less than optimal impact for the sector. Partnerships are critical in this sector but need to be approached strategically with the long-term in mind. This strategy also proposes a shift in funding sources (for backbone infrastructure development) from traditional funders to institutions that have the resources and are pro-partnerships. Corporations will remain driven by bottom-lines, but with an ever increasing tech heavy lifestyle, there is a measurable decline in worker mental health due to technology overload with depression being the leading cause of disability (Lines, 2013). It comes as no surprise that declined health is directly correlated to reduced productivity, and with proven research that exposure to nature has a measurable positive impact on these areas, corporations have a vested interest in bringing increased access to nature in the lives of their employees.

Strategies & Implications

There is a need for backbone infrastructure that can assist with the innovative rethink and expansion of current partnership strategies in the Toronto environmental sector, so that greater impact can be achieved.

Future Fit:

Strategic implications:

Funding sources for the sector are increasingly limited and prone to having strings attached to them (requirements to support funder agendas or proposed projects in exchange for funds) so many current organizations are bound to fold, be absorbed or reduced in size in the coming decade; signs pointing towards a frayed and weaker sector. Having ‘independent’ as a collaborative backbone will allow for a stronger sector as it undergoes change and thus this strategy will remain relevant and robust regardless of the manifestation of proposed scenarios. This strategy will be much easier to implement in ‘The Prescribed Dome’ and ‘W.W.N.D’, where the public and government are inclined to support the efforts of the environmental sector, and a preventative strategy for ‘The Parking Lot’ and ‘ The Green Screen’, where the importance of the environment and nature are severely overlooked in comparison to the conveniences of technology.

The environmental sector shares an end goal and value system that is very unifying if supported properly. As the environmental sector grows smaller in size but larger in relevancy, greater connectivity and partnership development will be increasingly relevant, particularly when informing policy changes. As a more diverse base of institutions (corporations, healthcare, education, etc.) financially support the work of the sector, it will also allow for more innovative and relevant collaborations to come to fruition, leading to true cross-pollination of core competencies. When the increased exposure to the sector leads to a more environmentally inclined society and work culture there will be domino effects on the personal and economic health of the city. Risk (Moderate-High): Sectoral collaborations and backbone infrastructure development can experience various barriers

to success (financial, human capacity, competing priorities/agendas and project timeframes, lack of visionary leadership). Financial support from institutions, while intended to be unbiased, can be used to manipulate the agendaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s and work of different environmental organizations, defeating the purpose of their inclusion in the strategy. Measure of Success: Quantitative measures would include increase in number of partnerships with/within environmental sector organizations (visible through the number/scale of grassroots projects, environmental campaigns, partnerships); decline in diagnosed depression. Qualitative measures would include overall mental well-being in the city. Time Frame The trigger for this strategy will be when institutions see the value of nature as it relates to employee health and, ultimately, their performance

Year 1-5: Scope the feasibility of proposed platform amongst different players: 1) Organizations push research that highlights the impact of nature on health, productivity through general media 2) Work with pre-existing champion funders/ grantors to see the value of (a) funding collaborations that extend past the life of grants/funds, and (b) with organizations not directly supported by them. 3) Engage institutional support for various events that promote a collaborative relationship working towards the goal of creating diversified funding for backbone infrastructure. 4) Engage in discussions in the environmental sector to assess needs/wants for backbone. Year 5-10: Roll-out more intentional collabora-

Strategies & Implications

tive initiatives 1) Start the roll-out of resulting formalized collaborations 2) Encourage and mentor younger/middlemanagement in environmental organizations to develop visionary leadership (who want to find creative ways to strengthen the sector). 3) Have visible markers/campaigns throughout city to promote strength of sector

#2 Meet Them Where They Are

Description: The strategy of using social media more when exchanging information between organizations and their audiences is much more than a technological strategy. It touches the core of every NGO’s existence: its voice. Most environmental organizations operate on the grounds of particular values that are backed up by scientific facts or trustworthy theories. In order for these values not to be compromised environmental organisations take measures to speak clearly to their audience. Some have spokespersons, often the founders, others allow multiple staff members to speak on behalf of the organization. What has happened with social media, and could escalate dimensionally, is that people don’t resonate as much with a one truth strategy no matter how well it’s grounded. People seek their facts on a more mundane level, either by searching for them themselves, or through their peers. People are used to the cacophony of voices and have

acquired filters to know what to listen to. One of the things that could be filtered out is truth that is presented through preaching. The way to communicate is to use multiple channels and engage the audience as much as possible to add to the voice. Inevitably the opinions will serve the cause differently but it’s the conversation itself that brings out the purpose rather than any single opinion. Staff members of environmental organisations have to be advocates of the cause at all given moments. The use of social media to connect with adults is only a warm up exercise and will never have a significant effect but should rather be looked at as a coping strategy. The generation that is being born now on the other hand - the generation that will not know of a world without constant connectivity - has to be engaged right away. In order to do so it’s necessary to engage in “all possible media outlets” since it’s too early to tell which

Strategies & Implications

Use all possible media outlets to connect with the audience. Aim to leverage people’s strong relationship with technology to make their relationship with nature stronger. Create a polyphonic voice with emphasis of engaging instead of preaching.

one, if any, will be a victor. Organizations should work with app-developers, telecommunication companies and major players in the tech industry to integrate their message. The connection should put emphasis on engagement rather than non interactive information feeding.

The Parking Lot where people can not depend on reliable or encouraging information from the government to connect with nature. The Prescribed Dome will not cherish participatory engagement as much and the W.W.N.D. scenario is the one where this kind of strategy will be less needed.

Future Fit:

Strategic Implications:

For the time being most social media is aimed at pre-teens and up. Nevertheless many apps, even the ones that are aimed at toddlers, have some kind of participatory element in them (collecting tokens and compare points with other players etc.). It’s likely that participation will become a more integrated part of all entertainment. It’s necessary to re-evaluate the strategy constantly every three years to take note of social and technological changes (see further in the implication section). The strategy will be more relevant in a future scenario where urbanisation is on the grey scale, especially the Green Screen scenario where digital technology is embraced but also in

The age of omnipresent constant connectivity of all things also known as “the internet of things” or the successor of the internet is likely to come in to place within the 25 year timeframe. When such a state has been reached it’s necessary to re-evaluate the strategy and integrate it with a more broad connectivity strategy since even natural objects like trees can possess smart features. The idea, to put it bluntly, is to communicate directly with nature. In order to develop that kind of connectivity the future leaders of the tech industry have to have been exposed to a strategy that acknowledges that technology and

nature can work together. Screen time and green time are not opposites but support each other.

Time Frame

Risk (Moderate):

1) Social media platforms

The polyphonic voice is a shift in the way many environmental organisations operate. It could compromise their unified scientific voice to validate people’s engagement, because people’s opinions are not all rational. It can also be a risk to simplify a complex problem to make the engagement more feasible. Over simplification can backfire and lead to apathy towards the grave issues. Measure of Success: Audience engagement. Trackable (likes, shares, followers) but rather what goes beyond that. Increase in volunteers and activism.

Year 1-5: Use the tools that are already existing

2) Use guerilla marketing 3) Teach staff how to master current platforms Year 5-10: Develop new platforms 1) Work with the tech industry to integrate the message in both hardware and software 2) Introduce “smart nature” - install connectivity devices in certain natural elements and encourage people to engage with them.

Strategies & Implications

#3 Nurture Nature in Youth

Description: Despite a growing interest in urban living among many millennials, what remains uncertain is whether or not they will continue to live in cities once they start families (Pigg, 2014). A potential challenge if they remain in our cities becomes how a generation will nurture a healthy connection with nature when raising children in cities. Especially since, according to Environics’ values-based data, this generation’s attachment to nature is “ambivalent” (Rochon, 2013). What is more, research on early childhood development suggests that half of all potential for mental development is reached before the age of three making the first 1,000 days of a child’s life critical for influencing long term well being (Chan and Lake, 2014). Furthermore, neuroscience has also highlighted that healthy growth must consider how our early experiences and engagements through play nurture development (Chan and Lake, 2014). This sheds a light on the important role that parents and caregivers exercise in engaging children at a young age with nature, as well it stresses the critical role environmental organizations will need to

play in engaging with these stakeholders. This understanding implies that in order to reach children, those who influence and shape their values and worldviews at a young age, must also be reached.. Therefore, engaging caregivers as well as educators is crucial in building a child’s understanding of its natural environment. By 2040, today’s millennials will be above the age of 45 while children being born now will become millennial-age themselves. These two age groups represent an opportunity for environmental organizations to engage a younger audience not only through inviting an environmental discourse but also through fostering environmental action. However, in order to do so, its important to acknowledge these stakeholders as more than just an audience but also active partners and co-creators of our shared futures. In order to create action towards a better world nature has to be included in the discourse. Utilizing narrative can be a strong tool to develop empathy as well as a sense of belonging to place, as biologist E.O. Wilson states:

Strategies & Implications

“Millennials now helping drive the downtown condo boom are just coming into their child-bearing years in big numbers. Where will they live as they age and have families?” -Urban Land Institute in their 36th annual Emerging Trends in Real Estate

“A culture creates its present and therefore its future through the stories its people tell, the stories they believe, and the stories that underlie their actions. The more consistent a culture’s core stories are with biological and physical reality, the more likely its people are to live in a way compatible with ecological rules and thereby persist.” As access to green space continues to decrease in cities as a result of urbanization, it becomes increasingly more important to preserve nature’s presence in language, narrative and day to day discourse. In the past, efforts to communicate with children about ecological issues often emphasize environmental threats which could lead to a state of ‘Ecophobia’ (McKnight, 2010). This can become deconstructive as it may lead to a problem focused mindset as opposed to a solution focused mindset. To create narrative and achieve empathy with nature, we must actively engage with it through physical presence. By introducing programs that can promote nature as a ‘fun’ activity, it may create a smooth transition

from a state of ‘ecophobia’ to a state of ‘eco-fun’. Utilizing play as a motivation for developing activities, promoting learning, as well as creating solutions to environmental issues could potentially break the ice between youth and their perceptions toward climate change. By seamlessly embedding nature in the education of tomorrow’s children the capability of ‘Environmental Literacy’ is achived. Environmental literacy can be defined as “the capacity of an individual to act successfully in daily life on a broad understanding of how people and societies relate to each other and to natural systems, and how they might do so sustainably (Campaign for Environmental Literacy, 2007). Future Fit: The following strategy presents an opportunity to prevent apathy towards nature in future generations as well as to accelerate the creation of solutions towards environmental concerns. Although it has a high performance in the WWND as well as the Prescribed Dome, it has moderate performance in

the Green Screen as well as The Parking Lot making it potentially robust yet also a gamble. Facing less resistance, the strategy performed high in both WWND and the Prescribed Dome. In both scenarios, children grow up hearing carbon footprint being emphasized over calories, and caregivers and educators are more responsive to initiatives that engage and immerse children in nature. In the Prescribed Dome there are more conscious citizens regarding energy consumption and other environmental related tasks, however the social value of nature may be overlooked due to a lack of dynamic and creative space –a result of a structured government system. It may pose a challenge to engage audiences without significant governmental or institutional support. Therefore, although families will respect nature’s life cycle, it may become difficult to engage beyond what was made accessible by institutions. In The Parking Lot a state of rising eco-phobia has led to overprotective parents, who fear leaving their children outdoors due to rising issues around climate change. Therefore, although the following strategy addresses a mind shift for future generations, it may present a challenge to go against a culture of ‘concrete’ nature, where families prefer to spend their time inside omni-centes as opposed to outdoor nature. In the Green Screen, children are growing up in artificial realities of existence interacting with screens before they can say their first words. However, although the strategy aims to prevent apathy towards nature at a young age, it may be challenged by mass circulation of information and hyperconnectivity where over attachment to technology has blurred the line between the natural and artificial. Making it difficult to resist a movement towards ‘artificially intelligent’ nature. However, despite these challenges, the proliferation of online activism will make reach more accessible as well as create action towards environmentalism, while an in-

crease in socio-environmental entrepreneurship due to a more aware youth will leverage positive impact. Strategic implications: Just as reading and writing have become a core foundation for learning, environmental literacy must be treated with equal significance. This opens up opportunities for environmental organizations to partner with family programs, schools as well as other initiatives to expand their reach and include a wider audience in establishing sustainable solutions for the future. A preventative strategy, the following approach opens opportunities for environmental values and attitudes to be nurtured at an early stage. It involves more active engagement through strategic partnerships with schools, family based programs and youth driven initiatives. Environmental organizations can utilize this opportunity to not only create platforms for youth to engage with nature but to also bring to life new perceptions, ideas, and solutions to nurturing a more healthy connection with nature. Furthermore, diversifying stakeholders to include educators, caregivers, and children can open up new market channels for generating revenue both through funding as well as through introducing new services and programmes. Risk (Moderate): From an organizational perspective, those with less experience in dealing with a younger audience it would require more market experimentation to identify emergent needs and opportunities for appropriate initiatives and partnerships. Therefore, there must be a budget allocated for such experimentation and a more long term outlook for return on investment and signs of impact. However, one must acknowledge that it does pose a financial risk. This is of course relative to every organization’s mandate, resources and competencies making it important to

Strategies & Implications

Time frame adapt the strategy to suit the organizationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s strategic goals. Furthermore, despite the inherent future fit of the strategy to prevent environmental apathy as well as leverage positive initiatives, its important to recognize the contradictions that will arise as a result of technological developments. Although technology may become a channel to spur activism towards environmental change, it may also become a distraction from what really matters. Measure of success: Tangible metrics should be put in place to generate data regarding number of families and educators who become engaged with initiatives as well as growth and development of key partnerships and alliances. Feedback mechanisms will measure stakeholder satisfaction as well as value gaps that must be addressed.

Year 1-5: Develop processes for addressing new stakeholders 1) Identify opportunities for engagement 2) Identify appropriate channels and emergent technologies for reaching stakeholders 3) Develop and plan internal processes for initiatives to address new opportunities 4) Launch and execute plan Year 5-10: Establish long term initiatives and partnerships 1) Iterate and develop positioning 2) Build capacity for long term initiatives and partnerships 3) Establish environmental literacy as an important foundation for learning

#4 Be Susceptible to (Change) Implementation strategies for a Health and Nature promotion intervention

Description: Modern society, by its very essence, insulates people from outdoor environmental stimuli (Stilgoe, 2001). While some urban-dwelling individuals seeking out parks and gardens appear to intuitively understand the personal health and well-being benefits arising from a connectedness with nature, public health strategies are [yet] to maximize the untapped resource nature provides, despite a growing base of empirical evidence demonstrating that contact with nature offers powerful benefits for people’s health (Dakin, 2014). However, in order to experience these benefits, a healthy environment is needed. In an increasingly urbanized society this poses a challenge as personal connections with the natural world are being eroded by the interplay of urbanization and uneven access to green spaces. Connecting urbanites with nature requires a fundamental shift in how nature is being perceived in cities - it requires a shift toward making sustainability about people’s personal health.

Health can be divided into two broad aspects physical and mental health (What is Health, 2014). By building capacity at all levels from wearable health innovations for UV exposure-tracking to improving access to healthy and affordable food to “green therapy” and social care to new technological developments in health education to increase a child’s ability to more naturally interact with their environment; organizations can begin to help people see these connections. The following examples and more are about the health of individuals and their kids and that’s a powerful motivator for people. Environmental organizations should therefore broaden their mission’s scope to better align with those of public health organizations and innovations by improving their ability to communicate and market health services to enhance urbanites’ perception of health in terms of developing healthy environments and personal resiliency; a philosophy of supporting communities and individuals to take charge of their own health. Health and nature promotion interven-

Strategies & Implications

How do we get all of the people who care about health to see the connections between healthy people and a healthy environment?

tion includes strengthening the skills of individuals to encourage healthy behaviours, and it also includes building the healthy social and physical environments to support these behaviours.

community programs. In any event, the state of the environment is a determinant of health. Health and nature promotion intervention is the way forward. The evidence is in: Healthy Nature, Healthy People.

Future Fit: These trends were significantly present in different forms in all four scenarios, making this strategy high impact in each case explored. In The Parking Lot and Green Screen future scenarios, with increasingly more “grey” urbanization a health and nature promotion intervention acts as a preventative strategy to lessen the health impact against such extremes as kids offsetting “nature time” with “screen time,” as well as increasing incidences of ecophobia, nature deficit disorder and other forms of alienation from the natural world. In the case of a Prescribed Dome or W.W.N.D future, where urbanization is increasingly more “green,” this strategy is highly adaptive and robust supporting the initiatives of either government regulated or community-driven healthy and liveable

Strategic Implications: This strategy involves any combination of health education and related organizational, economic and political interventions designed to facilitate behavioural and environmental changes conducive to health by creating viable and long-lasting strategic partnerships among different stakeholders. As such, this strategy has important implications for several stakeholders in this issue area. Environmental organizations will benefit in the long term by connecting the health of individuals and communities to the health of the environment. It has mutually positive implications for public health organizations whose aim is to improve equity in health, reduce health risks, promote healthy lifestyles and settings, and respond to the under-

lying determinants of health. To the extent that this strategy poses a shift in the sector, it takes an ecological and more holistic approach that focuses on community engagement and environmental change in addition to individual behaviours. Risk (Moderate): The level of risk for an organization to undertake this work is moderate to high. As explored, this strategy is robust across all scenarios explored and constitutes a strong direction that will strengthen the position of an environmental organization relative to a wide range of possible futures. However, environmental organizations who have no existing partnerships with public health organizations or initiatives may experience mission drift from their founding mission. This translates into a calculated trade-off between expanding the scope of social impact in the long run at a financial cost in the short run. In addition, the health and nature promotion intervention strategy will likely necessitate an investment of time and

resources to support the learning curve necessary to gain competency in promoting sustainability in relation to personal health. Nonetheless, the investment is one that, based on the scenarios explored, is likely to serve the organization well in the long term in promoting more healthy, livable communities in the urban context. Measure of Success: This strategy should be linked with clear indicators for success. These indicators should flow from the nature of the strategic partnerships or communication strategies but may include outcome and quality measures such as improving image or reputation, ratio of new to existing markets, diversification of stakeholder portfolio and key partners as well as the cost per dollar raised and return on investment the organization may occur as a direct result.

Strategies & Implications

Timeline: Year 1-5: Developing the internal analysis and understanding to inform the shift. 1) Identify emerging health innovations and potential key partners in health sector 2) Determine key activities required in relation to organizationsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; current competencies 3) Determine key resources required in relation to organizationsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; current capabilities 4) Identify value captured and created to consumers in relation to the acquisition of new key partners 5) Identify any new revenue streams in relation to the acquisition of new key partners 6) Commence measurement tracking Year 5-10: 1) Track progress of health and environmental trends. 2) Begin new cycle of strategic planning by Year 5

Conclusion

How can environmental organizations connect people with nature?

Chapter | Section

Conclusion In conclusion, there are both challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for environmental organizations. While the future of nature and societyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s relationship to it remains to be seen, one thing is for certain, that environmental organizations play an ever-more important role in developing stronger synergies between people and nature. If environmental organizations are to remain resilient (themselves) in promotion of more healthy, livable communities in urban landscapes, they must be open to adapt to the ever-changing future environments to which they are a part of, and not just in the context of climate change. Climate change is a reality now. Finding new ways to communicate and engage with both new and existing audiences is increasingly important for strategic direction. Developing strategies that engage both the hearts and minds of the public, as well as change the rules of government is the way forward for empowering communities to take action. While the issues are complex and diverse, there is a shared and universal recognition that solutions will arise only through committed action on a global, national, regional, local and individual scale. Environmental organizations have a pivotal role to play in preparing our young people to take their place in shaping the future of our natural world by 2040.

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About the Authors

Bergur Ebbi

Jennifer McDougall

Prateeksha Singh

Interested in music, literature and politics. He is a believer in the inter-disciplinary approach to equally solve and create problems.

Nourhan Hegazy

Jennifer has an insatiable appetite for learn-

Prateeksha is interested in traveling, intergenerational storytelling, and connecting with people. She is a follower of Ayurvedic living, a black & white film photographer,

Driven by curiosity and enthusiasm, her

Bergur Ebbi is an Icelandic writer, performer and analyser. His first published work is “The Time of Wit has Passed”, a book of poetry. He is also the author of plays (“Klæði” 2010 and “Jóreykur” 2014), essays, columns and analyses on politics and trends. As a comedian he has written, produced and performed works for television and radio, including the sketch-comedy television series MiðÍsland as well as hundreds of stand-up appearances including the two popular productions “Mið-Ísland í kjallaranum” and “Áfram Mið-Ísland” which ran for over a hundred shows. As a musician he worked with his band, Sprengjuhöllin, on writing, producing and performing vocals and guitar on their two records “Bestu kveðjur” (2008) and “Tímarnir okkar” (2007) which achieved gold-sales in his native country. Bergur Ebbi’s academic background is law with a Cand. Jur./ MA from the University of Iceland as well as having passed examinations of the Icelandic Bar Association. His final thesis was on the subject of legitimate expectations in the law of property. Bergur Ebbi currently lives in Toronto, Canada where he attends the program of Strategic Foresight and Innovation at OCAD University.

Jennifer is a Master of Design (MDes) Candidate in the Strategic Foresight and Innovation program at OCAD University. She currently holds her Honours Bachelor of Business Administration with an International Business concentration from Wilfrid Laurier University (WLU), though some of her best lessons and experiences came from the streets. While attending WLU she founded Laurier’s chapter of the national charitable organization, 5 Days for the Homeless and contributed to raising over $25,000 in 3 years for youth homelessness. Upon her graduation, she worked as a Speaker and Leadership Facilitator for the charity Free The Children where she delivered 30,000+ speeches to young people across Canada and facilitated over 150+ leadership development workshops in places such as the U.S, Ghana, India, Kenya and Ecuador. More recently, her design team at OCAD University was selected to compete in the San Francisco Regional Finals of the 2015 Hult Prize Challenge, a start-up accelerator for budding young social entrepreneurs emerging from the worlds’ universities and competing for $1 million in seed capital to solve the issue of Early Childhood Education: The Unmet Need of The Century.

and most importantly, a nature loving soul.

Juggling between her interests in design, leadership and social contexts, Nourhan Khaled Hegazy previously studied Design at the German University in Cairo (GUC). Once she graduated, she traveled on exchange to Indonesia where she worked on a global development project before becaming a full timer at her University. She spent the past two years working in between Cairo and Berlin as a teaching assistant and special projects coordinator for GUC Design Studio -a platform for senior design students to develop socially driven, collaborative and interdisciplinary projects. It aims to support students in sustaining their projects once they graduate through developing their entrepreneurial skills and helping them to transition from academic life to the real world of design practice.

ing and a playful curiosity, who aspires to contribute in finding new ways that may be more apt for the challenges of our time.

Prateeksha believes that ‘Values drive destiny’ and considers herself a lifelong learner, always curious and very much an information sponge. The daughter of a diplomat, she is grateful to be a citizen of the world, with an appreciation for language, culture, and food. Professionally, Prateeksha holds a Certified Public Accountant (CPA) designation from the State of Virginia, U.S. and work experience in both the corporate and nonprofit realm. She worked for over 6 years in the U.S. corporate sector (Deloitte, The Siegfried Group, MicroStrategy), as an auditor/consultant, focusing on financial and forensic audits as well as process evaluation and improvement. She left the corporate sector to explore opportunities in social innovation, particularly social entrepreneurship, as this space is very close to her heart. Currently living in Toronto, Prateeksha is working with the School for Social Entrepreneurs Ontario, a non-profit startup that contributes to transformational social change by providing action-based and practical learning programs for social entrepreneurs and intraprenuers in Canada. Having lived in eight countries (developing and developed), she knows smart social innovation is the key and social enterprises are a very important piece of the puzzle. She is passionate about the inclusion of all members of the community in the innovation process. Prateeksha holds a B.B.A. in Accounting and Finance from Texas Christian University (TCU) and is currently pursuing a Master’s of Design in Strategic Foresight and Innovation. at OCADU.

work lies somewhere between the intersection of social and service innovation.

Nourhan is now a Masters Candidate in Strategic Foresight and Innovation at OCAD U. Driven by curiosity and enthusiasm, she aspires to use her background in design to lead and develop opportunities for learning and innovation.